Scenario Planning

How is big data going to influence the future of

smart mobility in Germany?

Hochschule Furtwangen
HFU Business School
International Management Master
Research Project I

Authors
Antje Berghäuser (252225)
Alena Koliada (252547)
Jenny Elizabeth Castro (252540)
Timo Kienzler (251496)
Sarah Kristina Stadelhofer (251284)

Supervisor Prof. Dr. Eva Kirner

Submitted June 2016

 Abstract I

Abstract

Smart mobility is the future of transportation services in Germany. The implementation and
management of smart mobility is impossible without using big data. At the present time, the analysis
of big data in Germany is not fully implemented due to existing challenges. The purpose of this research
project is to forecast the impact of big data on smart mobility in Germany with the use of scenario
planning. In order to receive the most actual scenarios, the input factors were designed in accordance
with extensive literature research, and then ratios between all specifications of input factors were
compared and evaluated. Thus four unique scenarios were selected for further detailed interpretation
to suggest possible influences of big data on smart mobility in Germany.

Key words: big data, smart mobility in Germany, INKA 4, scenario planning

Key findings

- The implementation of smart mobility in Germany depends on governmental regulations and

social attitude regarding big data collection and usage.
- The use of scenario planning allowed generating 27 scenarios in total, four of which were chosen
to interpret the possible influence of big data on smart mobility development in Germany.
- The scenarios are differentiating in terms of the pace of adoption of smart services and
governmental control of the use of obtained data. Two selected scenarios provide progressive
development of smart mobility with only few governmental restrictions. Whereas another two
scenarios involve governmental control. The major difference between them is the possibility to
develop smart mobility products and services using big data.
 Table of Content II

Table of Content

Table of Content ...................................................................................................................................... II

List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................... IV

List of Figures.......................................................................................................................................... IV

List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... IV

1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1

2 Big Data ........................................................................................................................................... 2

3 Smart Cities...................................................................................................................................... 5

4 Smart Mobility ................................................................................................................................. 8

5 Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 10

Scenario Planning .................................................................................................................. 10

Areas of influence for descriptor setup................................................................................. 13

5.2.1 Society ........................................................................................................................... 13

5.2.2 Urbanization .................................................................................................................. 14

5.2.3 Innovativeness ............................................................................................................... 15

5.2.4 Politics ........................................................................................................................... 16

5.2.5 Industry.......................................................................................................................... 17

5.2.6 Infrastructure ................................................................................................................ 18

Proceeding ............................................................................................................................. 18

6 Results ........................................................................................................................................... 22

Scenario (S-6) #1: „Big brother is watching you and everybody likes it” .............................. 23

Scenario (S-1) #2: „Old Uncle Sam lets the kids play” ........................................................... 23

Scenario (S-10) #3: “The tight grip of the federal data kraken” ............................................ 24

Scenario (S-12) #4: “Better safe than sorry” ......................................................................... 25

Discussion of results .............................................................................................................. 25

7 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 27

8 Annex ............................................................................................................................................... V

Differences within the Scenarios -1st trial (14 April 2016) ...................................................... V
 Table of Content III

Differences within the Scenarios – 2nd trial (22 April 2016) ................................................... VI

Differences within the Scenarios – final (30 May 2016) ....................................................... VII

List of final descriptors ......................................................................................................... VIII

9 References .................................................................................................................................. XXIV

 List of Tables IV

List of Tables

Table 1: Favorite tools for thinking about the future............................................................................ 10

Table 2: Values and meanings for consistency matrix ......................................................................... 20
Table 3: Differences between scenarios ............................................................................................... 22

List of Figures

Figure 1: How big data can make a difference ........................................................................................ 3

Figure 2: Six characteristics of the smart city model............................................................................... 6
Figure 3: Scenario planning process. ..................................................................................................... 12
Figure 4: Process of scenario creation .................................................................................................. 18
Figure 5: Example of consistency matrix ............................................................................................... 20

List of Abbreviations

ICT Information and communication technology

ITS Intelligent transport systems
LTE Long term evolution
OEM Original equipment manufacturer
 Introduction 1

1 Introduction
Within the last few years the concept of a smart city has become the most promising concept to deal
with the increasing urbanization and the problems this development brings about. One of the major
challenges to be managed within a modern city is the transport sector: Smog, noxious fumes, traffic
jams,… these problems will intensify within the next decades if the mobility strategies of the last
decades are continued to be followed. To avoid an escalation of the problems linked to current urban
transport systems, governments and city planners are developing concepts which aim at a sustainable
reorganization of urban mobility – in other words, smart mobility concepts are considered key for the
future successful development of cities.
Since urban planning is a critical measure to achieve smart mobility, most of the established concepts
focus on the needs of non-modernized road-users, an expansion of the public transport system, and
the reduction of the environmental footprint (e.g. through government incentives for environmentally
friendly power trains). With quantum leaps in technology and data storage, mobility concepts which
are based on big data – as for instance Car-to-Infrastructure Communication, Car-to-Car
Communication, or Sharing Platforms – gain more and more attention. Regarding the fact that data
storage and the usage of private data is a highly sensitive topic in Germany, this paper will deal with
the question:

How is big data going to influence smart mobility in Germany?

In order to answer this research question, this paper will first shed a light on the theoretical aspects of
big data, smart cities and smart mobility. Further, the applied methodology (scenario planning) and
the team’s approach to scenario planning will be outlined before the actual scenarios and results are
presented and discussed.

Our findings reveal four potential futures, out of which two show a progressive approach towards big
data, smart cities and thus smart mobility, and two which reveal a wait-and-see approach, respectively
a restrictive and hampered one.
 Big Data 2

2 Big Data
Big data indicates the massive amount of data or information produced rapidly by several numbers of
diverse sources. Such data can either be created by people or generated by machines, for example:
social interactions, mobile devices, R&D reports, physical infrastructure (sensors and surveillance), all
contributing to the constant flow of data streaming. Big data may involve personal data: that is any
information relating to an individual, and can be anything from a name, a photo, an email address,
bank details, posts on social networking websites, medical information, or a computer IP address
(European Commission 2016).
According to the study “The digital Universe in 2020” released by EMC Corporation, 4.4 zettabytes of
information are created every year worldwide, by 2020 it is estimated that the digital universe will
reach 40 zettabytes, or 40 trillion gigabytes, this is equal to 1.7 MB of new information for every human,
every second of every day.
Google now processes over 40,000 search queries every second on average, which translates to over
3.5 billion searches per day and 1.2 trillion searches per year worldwide (InternetLiveStats, 2016),
moreover in 2016 it is expected to ship over 1.4 billion smart phones (statista, 2016), all packed with
sensors capable of collecting all kinds of data, not to mention the data the users create themselves.
According to the report “Cisco Visual Networking index” presented in 2016, the number of wirelessly
connected devices in 2015 grew to 7.9 billion, up from 7.3 billion in 2014, more than the global
population of 7.3 billion in 2015 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs 2015).
In 2010, enterprises and users stored more than 13 exabytes of new data; this is over 50,000 times the
data in the Library of Congress, the potential value of global personal location data is estimated to be
$700 billion to end user (Jagadish and Gehrke 2014). According to a report from McKinsey Global
Intitute 2011 (McKinsey 2011), big data could have a signigificant effect on employment where
140,000-190,000 workers with data analytical experience will be needed in the US; furthermore, 1.5
million managers will need to become data-literate. Another study “Big Data Analytics: An assessment
of demand for labour and skills, 2012-2017" (E-Skills UK 2013) conducted by e-skills uk and SAS predicts
that in the UK alone, the number of big data staff specialists working in large firms will increase by
more than 240% over the next five years. These global trends in big data hold enormous potential in
various fields, ranging from health, food security, climate and resource efficiency to energy, intelligent
transport systems and smart cities (Figure 1).
 Big Data 3

Figure 1: How big data can make a difference. European Commission, 2016.
(http://ec.europa.eu/justice/data-protection/files/data-protection-big-
data_factsheet_web_en.pdf)

The big data era is at an early stage, as most related technology and analytics applications were first
introduced only around 2010, on the other hand almost 80% of the world’s data today was generated
during the past two years, approximately 90% of it is unstructured with lesser economic value (Kim
and Trimi 2014). Still the overwhelming amount of remaining data offers new opportunities for
discovery, value creation, and rich business intelligence.
While big data can yield extremely useful information, it also presents new challenges with respect to
how much data to store, whether the data can be useful, whether the data will be secure, and how
long it must be maintained and so on. Some of the major challenges are discussed below:

Heterogeneity. The data not only comes from multiple channels (such as social networks, the Web,
and crowdsourcing) but from different sources (such as countries, institutions, agencies, and
departments). Machine analysis algorithms expect homogeneous data, and are poor at understanding
nuances. In consequence, data must be carefully structured as a first step in (or prior to) data analysis
(Jagadish and Gehrke 2014).
Scale. Managing large and rapidly increasing volumes of data has been a challenging issue when it
comes to big data as traditional database approaches don’t scale or write data fast enough to keep up
with the speed of creation. Additionally, purpose-designed data warehouses are great at handling
 Big Data 4

structured data, but there’s a high cost for the hardware to scale out as volumes grow (Kajal and
Somani 2014).
Timeliness. As data grow in volume, we need real-time techniques to summarize and filter what is to
be stored, since in many instances it is not economically viable to store the raw data. This gives rise to
the acquisition rate challenge described earlier, and a timeliness challenge we describe next. The
fundamental challenge is to provide interactive response times to complex queries at scale over high-
volume event streams (Jagadish and Gehrke 2014).
Privacy and data ownership. The privacy of data is another huge concern, and one that increases in the
context of big data. There is great public fear regarding the inappropriate use of personal data,
particularly through linking of data from multiple sources. Managing privacy effectively is both a
technical and a sociological problem, which must be addressed jointly from both perspectives to realize
the promise of big data (Al-Khouri 2012). Another issue is that many online services today require us
to share private information, but beyond record-level access control we do not understand what it
means to share data, how the shared data can be linked, and how to give users fine-grained control
over this sharing in an intuitive, but effective way. In addition, real data are not static but get larger
and change over time; none of the prevailing techniques results in any useful content being released
in this scenario.
 Smart Cities 5

3 Smart Cities
Nowadays people face significant global trends that will have an impact on lifestyle changes in the
future. These main trends are urbanization, economic growth and ecological threats.
The urban population in 2014 was 54% of the total global population and this number is expected to
grow to 70% by 2050 (World Urbanization Prospects, 2014). The urban population in Germany is 75.3%
of the total population in 2015, that is 1.4% more than in 2011 (The World Bank, 2015).
With the population and productivity expansion, economic growth is expected. Developing countries
will overtake developed countries in terms of economic growth. The economic growth in Germany is
currently slowing down, nevertheless economic activities have influenced on the ecological
environment. Therefore, Germany has the highest level of greenhouse emissions among all European
Union members. In 2013, the level of greenhouse gas emissions was equal to 21.17% of the total
European Union level (Eurostat, 2015).
With high population density, urban traffic and the need of efficient resource usage, many countries
started to implement ambitious projects that aim at the development of modern urban infrastructure
based on the use of sophisticated technologies. This concept is called smart city.

Beside the smart city concept, the so called intelligent city and the creative city concepts exist. The
intelligent city is a highly productive city that is specialized in a range of knowledge intensive innovative
sectors. The intelligent city is mainly focused on innovative development which is encouraged through
learning and technological development. The creative city concept focuses on empowering citizens to
improve the city; using their concerns, capacities and creativity (Letaifa 2015, p.1414).

The conceptual component of a smart city is the usage of Information and Communications Technology
(ICT), to implement high efficiency and management of the economy as well as a high standard of living
and mobility and respect for the environment for long-term sustainable development. Germany’s ICT
market is the largest in Europe. According to ICT Development Index 2015, Germany was scored 14th
in the world rank. Following the ICT Strategy of the German Federal Government, Germany will
improve its ICT development that will allow to build smart cities across the regions. (ICT Development
Index 2015).

However, it is important to note that the concept of smart cities is not just limited to technological
improvement, but rather has the aim to persuade socioeconomic development (Nam and Pardo 2011).
Therefore, another key characteristic of the smart city concept is smart people. Smart people or smart
citizens can be characterized by the high level of education and qualification, willingness to participate
in public life, creativity and cosmopolitanism (Giffinger et al 2007).
 Smart Cities 6

As a result, for the purpose of this research paper, we have selected the definition put forth by Marsal-
Llacuna et al. (2014) which states that "Smart Cities initiatives try to improve urban performance by
using data, information and information technologies (IT) to provide more efficient services to citizens,
to monitor and optimize existing infrastructure, to increase collaboration among different economic
actors, and to encourage innovative business models in both the private and public sectors."

The definition of smart cities by Marsal-Llacuna et al. (2014) is connected to the smart city model
developed by Giffinger et al. (2007). According to this model, the concept of smart cities is described
by six distinct characteristics (see Figure 1). The influential areas are: economy, people, governance,
mobility, environment and living. With the aid of this model, a city can examine its current state and
identify the missing components which are needed to meet the necessary conditions of becoming a
smart city (Giffinger et al. 2007). Furthermore, this model helps cities to establish individual objectives
according to their unique circumstances by following the vision outlined by the six characteristics
(Giffinger et al. 2007; Steinert et al. 2011).

SMART ECONOMY SMART PEOPLE SMART Governance

(Competiveness) (Social and Human Capital) (Participation)

 Innovative spirit  Affinity to lifelong  Participation in

 Productivity of learning decision-making
labor market  Social and ethnic  Provision of Public
 International plurality and social services
embeddedness  Open-mindedness  Transparent
 Participation in governance
public life

SMART MOBILITY SMART ENVIRONMENT SMART LIVING

(Transport and ICT) (Natural Resources) (Quality of Life)

 Local accessibility  Pollution  Health conditions

 (Inter-)national  Environmental  Individual safety
accessibility protection  Housing quality
 Availability of ICT-  Sustainable  Education
infrastructure resource  facilities Touristic
 Sustainable, management attractivity
innovative and safe  Social cohesion
transportation

Figure 2: Six characteristics of the smart city model. Giffinger et al., 2007, p.12.

Smart economy describes the overall competitive position of a city, based on its strategy to business,
research and development (R&D) expenditures, entrepreneurship, productivity and flexibility of the
labor market, and the economical position of the city nationwide as well as in the international field.
 Smart Cities 7

Smart people are characterized by a high and consequent level of education, their willingness of
participation in public life as well as their cultural awareness and open- mindedness.

Smart governance implements that the smart governance system is transparent and gives the citizens
the permission to partake in decision-making. By the help of the ICT infrastructure, people who are
living in a smart city have access to information and data connected to the management of their city.
As a result, the efficient governance system makes it possible to reduce the barriers in relation to
communication and collaboration.

Smart mobility supports more efficient transport systems. In connection to that, citizens should be
motivated to change their attitude towards vehicle usage and be able to get easier access to public
transport. Key element in this section is the efficient utilization of ICT, which is integrated into the
whole transport system. As a result, the aim of smart mobility is an efficient transportation of people,
goods and vehicle in an urban and sustainable environment.

Smart environment points out that resource management and sustainable urban planning is needed
to enhance the natural beauty of the city. With the help of pollution and emission reduction and
measures towards environmental protection, a sustainable development of the city can be guaranteed.
Therefore, smart cities put much effort into the promotion of the reduction of energy consumption
and into new technological innovation, to shape their environment more sustainable.

Smart living refers to improve the quality of life of citizens, which includes to provide healthy and safe
livening conditions. Accordingly, people who are living in a smart city have easy access to health care
services, electronic health management, and to diverse social services. (Giffinger et al. 2007).
 Smart Mobility 8

4 Smart Mobility
Mobility and transportation are two key elements in modern society and a fundamental base for a
healthy economy and social welfare. At the same time, urban mobility is influenced by new challenges.
The increasing size of our cities requires more road safety, improved traffic flow and environmental
sustainability.
The utilization of innovative information and communication technology (ICT) offers the possibility to
improve and use the existing traffic infrastructure in an optimal way (Fraunhofer 2016).

Therefore, the aim is to provide an efficient, safe and comfortable transport system, which is linked to
ICT infrastructure and open data.

This is also the basis to follow new mobility trends like for example:

• From ownership to sharing (e.g. car sharing)

• Driven by information
• Personification of travel information
• Usage of Electric Cars

In preparation for the mentioned trends, the smart urban mobility is aimed to achieve many significant
objectives:

 Ensure the accessibility of transportation services for everybody

 Improve the safety and security for citizens and travelers
 Reduce air and noise pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption
 Improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the transportation of persons and goods
 Enhance the attractiveness and quality of the urban environment (European Comission 2012,
p. 10)

The smart mobility has a specific structure to provide smart city services. This structure is based on
physical infrastructure (e.g. roads, rails, bike paths), operational technology (e.g. sensors, surveillance,
controls) and communications technology (e.g. Wi-Fi, 3G, 4G). In Germany, ITS Action Plan for the
Roads is aimed at the improvement of existing infrastructure and accelerated introduction of new
Intelligent Transport Systems by the year 2020. Operational and communications technology collect
the data that is then used by information technology to process, anonymize, analyze and program the
data that is then transferred to smart city services for users. The smart mobility benefits are targeted
at the main potential user groups: travelers (citizens and businesses), transport operators, urban
planners and city governments.
 Smart Mobility 9

Smart mobility aims at providing efficient movement of people and goods, and in doing so to access
the essential facilities, communities and other destinations that are required to support a decent
quality of life and a buoyant economy implying ICT that is leveraged to manage city services and
improve citizens’ quality of life (Smart Cities cornerstone series, 2014).
The smart city concept is impossible without ICT that operate with big data. In the smart mobility
concept, big data is obtained from actors that use operational and communications technology. The
value chain for sustainable urban mobility starts from data sources that include private and public
sectors. Data sources in the smart mobility concept may include public and private transport service
providers, citizens, city areas and maps, police, borough, public and other stakeholders. Data sources
allow collecting the raw data that is generated by intelligent infrastructure and provides raw material
resource, including information about journey time, usage patterns, and service availability.
The raw data analysis derives the information components that have substantial value in managing
urban planning, transport system design and service management in real time and for the future.
Information services are the final product in the value chain, and can be used by individual travelers
and transport operators.
The new concepts of smart mobility require new business models in order to generate revenues that
might come from app sales, transaction fees (paid by transport operators and users) and venture
capital funding. But while big data can yield extremely useful information for smart mobility, it also
presents new challenges like to analyze the huge amount of data and how much this will cost. In
addition, big data also presents new ethical challenges, which includes the data security of every
individual as well as how long the data must be maintained (Michael, Miller 2013, p.23).
 Methodology 10

5 Methodology
Scenario Planning
Scenario planning, also called scenario-based planning or scenario and contingency planning, has first
evolved after World War II as a military planning method and belongs to the future studies or foresight.
The method of scenario planning has been transferred from military usage to business planning in the
1960s and 1970s (Verity, 2003; The Economist, 2008; Research-Technology Management, 2010;
Schroeder & Lambert, 2011). After having been introduced by Herman Kahn and associates at Rand
Corporation (a US company), the scenario planning technique was further developed by Khan and a
think-tank set up by him. In the 1960s and 1970s, scenario planning for business purposes was first
applied by General Electric, but the real breakthrough of scenario planning as a strategy tool was made
by Pierre Wack at Shell and Peter Schwarz at the Stanford Research Institute of Stanford University.
Over time, two styles of scenario planning evolved: the intuitive style and the formal style. The intuitive
scenario planning is based on creativity, imagination, as well as subjective and qualitative information,
and focuses on storytelling to approach scenarios. The outcome is rather a good understanding of the
forces affecting the future development than the exact forecast of future events. Opposite to this is
the formal style. This approach is built on the use of computer software and precise analytical
processes. A computer based analysis and calculation program has been developed by the US-
American consulting group Battelle between the 1970s and 1980s. The INKA 4 software used for this
project is an enhanced version of a first program developed at the Battelle Institute (Verity, 2003;
Geschka GmbH Unternehemensberatung, 2016).

Table 1: Favorite tools for thinking about the future. Ogilvy, 2015.
(http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-
forecasting/#51ed14776b7b)
 Methodology 11

During the last decades, the use of scenario planning has become more widespread: while less than
40% of companies made use of this technique in 1999, the percentage of firms applying scenario
planning had increased to 70% in 2006 (The Economist, 2008). Nowadays, scenario planning is the
preferred tool to think about the future.

Scenario planning is a flexible tool which can be applied for a wide range of topics – the targeted issue
just needs to contain a certain degree of uncertainty. Main reasons to use scenario planning is to gain
insights into the forces shaping future developments such as globalization, demographics, or
technological and legal frameworks. Companies usually employ scenario planning as a strategic tool
for e.g. budgeting, operational or investment planning (Verity, 2003; Research-Technology
Management, 2010; Axson, 2011). However mainly used in a private business context, scenario
planning is also used by state/region/local agencies for their planning processes – the US Federal
Highway Administration even recommends the usage of scenario planning as an enhancement of the
traditional transport planning process (Schroeder & Lambert, 2011; Federal Highway Administration ,
2016).

By conducting scenario planning, possible futures are scrutinized. This allows e.g. companies to
prepare strategies for different future events or incidents and to quickly adopt to the new
circumstances. Scenarios are not only flexible in use, but at different levels of analysis also
complementary. Scenario planning can be conducted with long-term, complex, global scope which
helps to answer more general questions as outlining future trends and helps to define a strategic focus
for the next decades. Another approach is focused and narrow scenarios, which are rather short-term
oriented (period of a few years compared to decades at the long-term scope), and focus e.g. on the
situation within a single industry. Generally, their purpose is to support management understanding
and reflection upon uncertainties to be faced in future. It can also help thinking ‘outside the box’ and
identifying first-mover advantages or so far ignored risks (Wright, 2000; Verity, 2003; Axson, 2011;
Ogilvy, 2015).

Notwithstanding the advantages scenario planning brings about, there are also some costs which
cannot be neglected. Besides the number of different techniques applicable – what can get confusing
for beginners – scenario planning is time and resource demanding. It is suggested, for instance, that
between five to ten people should form a scenario team. Those people should meet regularly and also
conduct workshops to spread their insights. As stated by Verity, this is at least a part-time, or even a
full-time job for a manager over a period of several months. For a period of six months, the costs of
scenario planning reach about US$600,000 (Verity, 2003). Moreover, the philosophy of scenario
planning – the acceptance of an uncertain and unpredictable future – is against human psychology.
Evolutionary psychology theory “asserts that accepting uncertainty, recognizing it as inevitable and
 Methodology 12

living with it, goes against the grain of human nature. It is human instinct to downplay risk“ (Verity,
2003). This is especially true for leading persons which are often biased by “overconfidence in their
ability to predict and control” (Verity, 2003). In other words, human instinct makes the application of
scenario thinking difficult, especially at the management levels, where scenario planning could actually
yield the highest benefits.

The scenario software INKA 4 supports the creation of scenarios from the collection of the input factors,
the so called descriptors, up to the calculation and evaluation of the different scenarios. Scenarios are
alternating narratives of the future; stories how future can develop (Ogilvy, 2015; Geschka GmbH
Unternehemensberatung, 2016).

INKA 4 is based on an eight-step procedure:

1) Identification of objectives 5) Illustration of the input factors’ impact

2) Analysis of input factors 6) Construction of senarios

3) Analysis of the future 7) Selection of scenarios

4) Impact assessment 8) Documentation

Figure 3: Scenario planning process. According to Geschka GmbH Unternehmensberatung, 2016.

(http://szenariotechnik.com/szenariotechnik)

During the first step, the identification of objectives is key. In other words, the framework for the
scenario planning is set up: what is the purpose of the scenario planning? What is its scope? Are there
problems or strategic issues which need to be identified/taken into consideration?
In a second step, key indicators and input factors, the so called descriptors, are identified and
structured. Each descriptor can be ranked according to its importance.
Step three deals with the analysis of the future. For each descriptor up to five projections of the future
can be entered. Future projections can also be conducted for interim points of time.
The forth step is the impact assessment of the descriptors. Here the mutual impacts of the single
descriptors are highlighted in a matrix scheme and have to be analyzed according to the degree of
their linkage.
As a next step, the results of the impact assessment are displayed – on the one hand, driving factors
and driven (dependent) factors are differentiated; on the other hand, the degree of the linkage of the
descriptors with the system is illustrated.
During the sixth step, the information given to the system is synthesized by the software. A consistency
matrix showing the different projections and their consistency is the result. The algorithm behind the
 Methodology 13

software identifies the most consistent scenario, and proposes further scenarios which are different
but consistent.
After having got the different projections, the most probable and plausible scenarios need to be chosen.
Finally, all information entered and all the results should be well documented to underpin the overall
results (Geschka GmbH Unternehemensberatung, 2016).

Generally, a good set of scenarios contains between three and five different but sufficiently detailed
projections/narratives and should be adjusted to the context of the scenario planning’s purpose. Most
notably in a business context, a strategy – or even several alternative strategies – should be developed
from the final scenarios. These strategies should be regularly adjusted to fully exploit the benefits of
scenario planning (Ogilvy, 2015).

Areas of influence for descriptor setup

The quality and accuracy of obtained scenarios in INKA depend on input descriptors. Therefore,
descriptors should provide precise information about current situation and future directions of smart
mobility and big data development. This section will explain the most significant areas of influence for
selected descriptors in accordance with socio-economic trends and state programs in Germany.

Areas of influence are divided into following categories: Society, Urbanization, Innovativeness, Politics,
Industry and Infrastructure. Each area has a specific set of descriptors that have the greatest impact
on the development of smart mobility through the usage of big data. Areas of influence have from one
to five descriptors. The following sections will provide a brief explanation of each area.

5.2.1 Society
Smart mobility is highly dependent on demand, therefore society is a crucial factor in determining the
utility of smart mobility and collection of big data. Any changes in society influence the industry as a
whole and certain services in particular. For instance, the environmentally friendly lifestyle trend in
Germany demands the development of bike paths and electric transportation. Germany is ranked as
one of the world’s leading producers of electric vehicles alongside Japan and the U.S. (McKinsey, 2014).
The success of other countries in launching smart mobility services also helps to encourage its
development in Germany. For example, the city government of Amsterdam introduces new mobility
solutions through the collaboration of public and private sectors and the usage of open data. Other
examples are Vienna and Barcelona which focus on launching electric mobility solutions, parking and
bike-sharing systems. All of these examples foster not only German government to develop smart
mobility, but also German society to take interest in this industry. However, further smart mobility
design and management requires big data collection and analysis. Therefore, indicators as the usage
 Methodology 14

of mobile devices and fast mobile internet largely determine the future progress of big data analysis
for smart mobility. The main concern is the willingness of German society to share data. Studies show
that 58% of the German population is concerned that their personal data may be used for a purpose
other than that for which it was collected (Statista, 2014). This can be a significant barrier for data
collection and thus for smart mobility services.

The descriptors which arose from the area of Politics are as followed:

1) German Smart Services demand

2) Development of Smart Cities around the world

3) Usage of mobile devices

4) Fast mobile internet

5) Acceptance of data collecting through ICT

Interest in and adaption of smart services by the German public are important factors in creating
probable future scenarios. Whether the demand for new transportation concepts such like car-sharing
will rise or fall will have a huge impact on further developments. Another important descriptor is the
Development of Smart cities around the world because new concepts and ideas can originate
everywhere around the world. The more interest there is in the topic of smart cities around the world
the faster innovations and solutions are created and therefore can be applied in German cities as well.
The smart part in smart mobility comes from an efficient control of the traffic flows. However for an
efficient traffic system an interconnectedness of the travelers is needed. Thus the Usage of mobile
devices is a critical point for incorporating the routes of ten thousands of individuals every day. Data
about the start and end of a trip need not only to be known but also to be transferred quickly which is
why Fast mobile internet is considered for the scenario building as well. Because privacy rights are a
big topic in Germany different developments concerning the Acceptance of data collecting through ICT
have to be included as influence factors as well. Smart services cannot work in an efficient way if the
potential users do not provide information about their travel routes and other habits.

5.2.2 Urbanization
As it was mentioned before, urbanization creates many challenges for cities all around the world. In
2015, the number of urban population in Germany was equal to 75,3% (The World Bank, 2015).

The increasing number of urban citizen is one of the main factors for the need of smart city services
and thus one important descriptor is called Urbanization.
 Methodology 15

How smart services will develop in the next couple of years will depend on the urgency with which a
solution for the increasing traffic amount is needed. If the growth rate of urban populations accelerates
or if less people will move to a city will have a great impact on smart mobility.

5.2.3 Innovativeness
Smart mobility and big data are two highly innovative areas. The automotive industry in Germany is
one of the most innovative and competitive ones in the world and number one in Europe (GTAI, 2015).
Taking into account that German OEMs are responsible for around one third of international
automotive R&D expenditures, the German automotive industry will continue to evolve and provide a
variety of products for smart mobility solutions (GTAI, 2015). The automotive industry in Germany will
invest 10 to 12 billion euros alone in the next three to four years in alternative engines - that’s 40% of
all research and development investments (Wissmann, 2014). Another important factor influencing
innovativeness is the investment into start-ups. German investments into start-ups in the first half of
2015 exceeded last year’s figure (EY, 2015). The private sector supports the development and
innovation of the transportation industry and smart mobility services, for example by the planning and
delivery of transport services or by developing applications for users. The increasing number of
investments into start-ups may encourage the private sector to enter the industry with innovative
solutions.

Therefore, the descriptors considered in the area of innovativeness are as followed:

1) Automotive R&D investments rate

2) Venture Capitalism in Technology Industry

The transition to smart cities will require interconnection of transportation vehicles utilizing ICT, such
can be driven by innovation. Investments are needed to answer the questions, how future cars will
integrate with technology in the user’s life and how they will connect to a network of vehicles and the
surrounding environment, consequently, depending on the Automotive R&D investments rate, it will
be possible to generate the solutions needed for interconnection in the urban mobility, referred as
one of the pillars of smart cities. On the other hand, Germany’s industry strength in electronic
technologies and software solutions will be crucial in the advancement of smart cities. This might be
possible with the development of technology startups to generate disruptive technologies. Venture
capitalism in Technology Industry proves to be a necessary funding resource for startups, while massive
it can help to evolve the tech culture in Germany and thus, promote the rapid development of smart
cities.
 Methodology 16

5.2.4 Politics
The government is the only institution that can foster smart mobility in Germany. Government
programs and plans are determinative for further steps of development and methods of completing
challenges. However, the financial situation of German cities may influence on decision of local
government to implement intelligent transport solutions. The increasing gap between rich and poor
cities affects the ubiquity of smart solutions for transportation and big data analysis, and as a result
the collaboration among cities to enhance further development. Other important governmental
interventions are automotive and technological programs. Currently, there are several programs
aimed at supporting the innovativeness of the private sector, such as “GO-Bio” and “High-Tech
Gründerfonds” (GTAI, 2015). With regard to the main challenge of big data usage, data security, state
authorities’ efforts focus on creating data collection regulations and protection mechanisms.

Finally, five descriptors were selected in the area of politics:

1) Regulations for data usage

2) Data privacy protection
3) Political collaboration with private sector
4) Government intervention in automotive and technology industry
5) Financial situation of cities

As stated in chapter 2 (Big Data), data will have a critical impact on all major areas of life. Its importance
will most notably rise in the technology and industry sector and increase its significance in private lives.
Several challenges come along with this development (heterogeneity, scale, timeliness, privacy and
data ownership). Depending on the framework set by the government, those challenges will be
addressed and solved in favour or against smart mobility. Since data collection and usage represents
the basis for its exploitation, the descriptor Regulations for data usage has been chosen; more
specifically, especially the law regarding the “Störerhaftung” has been considered more closely, since
this law exemplifies the general attitude towards data usage (for more details of the descriptor see
8.4). Hand in hand with data usage goes the challenge of privacy and data ownership, or in other words,
the question of data privacy protection, an extremely sensitive topic in Germany. This descriptor deals
with the question of who will own and control the accumulated data and the strictness of regulation
(for more details of the descriptor see 8.4). The descriptors Political collaboration with private sector
and Government intervention in automotive and technology industry both foster the development of
industry standards (thus addressing the challenges of heterogeneity, scale and timeliness) and spur
the development of smart mobility. Depending on the level of collaboration and intervention, the
development of smart mobility in Germany will be accelerated or slowed down (for more details of the
descriptors see 8.4). However, the possibility of state support for the development of smart mobility
 Methodology 17

also largely depends on the situation of the public treasuries: financial support of R&D, development
of an adequate infrastructure etc. The speed of the realisation of plans mainly depends on the financial
resources behind. Therefore, the Financial situation of cities has been taken into consideration (for
more details of the descriptor see 8.4).

5.2.5 Industry
The Industry area is closely related to innovativeness, because it includes the transportation and
private sector industry. Diversification of transportation and private sector industries offer a wide
range of services for smart mobility, creating a competitive environment and encouraging service
providers to deliver more efficient, environmentally friendly and safer products for users. Another
important industrial technology is operational technology that generates raw data for smart solutions.
The development of operational technology in Germany is being implemented through supporting
small and medium-sized businesses, pressing forward with research and development on new
technologies and enhancing security and trust in the digital world (BMWI, 2013).

Thus the following descriptors in the industry area were selected:

1) Diversification of transportation industry

2) Market entry strategies for start-ups
3) Development of operational technologies

Smart mobility embodies new trends (from ownership to sharing, driven by information and usage of
electric cars) inevitably influencing and shaping the future of transportation services. The chosen
descriptor, Diversification of transportation industry is also aimed to solve the existing challenges such
as accessibility of transportation services for every citizen, improving the safety and security for citizens
and travelers, and increasing the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of transportation of persons and
goods. With the huge amount of data, which is equal to 4.4 zettabytes of information, generating by
every user every year worldwide, there is a strong need to develop the Operational technologies, which
collect the data with the purpose to introduce the smart mobility services. The pace of operational
technologies development will determine the pace of smart mobility implementation in Germany. The
development of operational technologies as well as diversification of transportation industry would
not be efficient without start-ups, which together with government might overcome the challenges of
big data (heterogeneity, scale, timeliness, privacy and data ownership). However, the lack of
investments might have an impact on Market entry strategies for start-ups. As a result innovative
services and products, depending on market strategy, might be different in terms of the innovativeness
and efficiency for big data usage and smart mobility development.
 Methodology 18

5.2.6 Infrastructure
The foundation of smart mobility cities is the physical infrastructure and operational technology.
Physical infrastructure such as roads, rails and bike paths are already well developed across Germany.
However, in order to collect raw data for further analysis, there is a strong need for devices which
monitor daily traffic levels and the most used routes in and out of the city.
Therefore the descriptor Surveillance and sensing infrastructure was selected.

This descriptor takes the development of the German infrastructure for monitoring and analyzing the
traffic level and flow into consideration. Its base is the budget allocation proposed in the
“Bundesverkehrswegeplan”, the state program for maintaining and improving the German transport
routes (BMVI 2016).

Proceeding
The first step for this project was to develop a suitable research question. Because the project was
introduced with the title “Scenario Planning - The future of Big data”, it was clear that the project was
about forecasting possible future developments in the area of data collecting and analysis. However,
the topic alone was too broad, thus we gathered information to focus on a more specific use of big
data. We found the use of big data for the development of a smart city quite intriguing but still too
wide, which is way we decided to concentrate our research on smart mobility. Our final research
question was formulated as “How is big data going to influence smart mobility in Germany?”

The process of answering this question through creating the final scenarios can be seen in Figure 4
below and is described in the following section of this paper.

Determining
Creating Selection and
Collection of Identifying relationship of
descriptors Revision of interpretation
general fields of descriptors
and results of scenarios
information influence and running
projections
program

Figure 4: Process of scenario creation.

 Methodology 19

After deciding on the research question the next step was to identify the most influential fields for
smart mobility. At the end of the literature review we concluded that social changes, security issues,
legislation and politics, technological advancements and the German infrastructure include points
which all together would determine the future of smart mobility. In the next step we assigned a team
member to each of the fields of influence for further research. Although everyone was still looking for
descriptors in every area of influence it was important to have someone for each area who looked
deeply into the subject matter and could act as an expert. After we researched the fields of influence
and found our first set of descriptors we gathered to evaluate them together.

During this examination we came to realize that we had to be careful not to confuse results of future
developments with descriptors, since descriptors are only “descriptive parameters” (Schwarz-Geschka
2014, p.8). Future trends or alternative developments of the descriptors are described with up to three
different so called projections. Those projections have to be plausible and probable which means that
they have to be derived from facts and data stated by reliable sources (Schwarz-Geschka 2014, p. 8).
It is necessary to set for each projection a), b) and c) a probability of occurrence. The probabilities of
the projection for each descriptor combined cannot exceed a 100%.

While examining the descriptors we jointly revised the projections of the descriptors and the
probabilities for them to happen with the help of the researched literature. One advantage we had
through the new cloud-based INKA 4 version was that everybody had already entered their descriptors
and projections into the program. We saved a lot of important group time because we did not have to
type in all the information while meeting but instead just had to edit and delete. After the elimination
and rewriting of unsuitable descriptors and projections we had 16 descriptors with 34 projections.

The next step was to fill out the consistency matrix. In order to create reasonable, conclusive
predictions about future scenarios the software needs information about the relationships between
the single projections. This information is entered via the consistency matrix. Figure 5 shows a
screenshot of a single consistency matrix for two predictions with three projections each.
 Methodology 20

Figure 5: Example of consistency matrix.

Each projection is assed against one another. The question to ask is: Suppose, descriptor 1.1a and
descriptor 6.1a occur at the same time. Do the projections fit together? Do they support each other?
Or are they contradictory to each other? (Schwarz-Geschka 2014, p. 12). Filling out the consistency
matrix is one of the most important but at the same time most difficult task. The software creates and
appraises the scenarios to great parts according to the information given in the matrix but assessing
the relations is very difficult. Since the matrix is treated as symmetrical only half of it is processed. That
means that there cannot be a direction of effect in assessing the relationship of two projections. If
projection 3a supports projection 4b, then projection 4b has to support projection 3a as well.
Otherwise the relation is not properly assessed. At the same time the kind of relationship has to be
estimated correctly as well. The options for describing the nature of the relation between two
projections are shown in the following.

Entering value Meaning

+3 Belong necessarily together, mutually dependent
+2 Supporting each other
+1 Fitting into the same promotional climate
0 No relationship (unrelated) (coexistence possible)
-1 Fits badly together
-2 Contradictory
-3 Mutually exclusive

Table 2: Values and meanings for consistency matrix.

The assessment of the relationships was a very time consuming task because in order to enter the right
value we often had to go back to the explanations of the descriptors and the projections. The name
 Methodology 21

given to the descriptors was no enough to judge the kind of relation properly. After entering the values
for all the relationships, we run the software and obtained our first set of scenarios.
Unfortunately, the first scenarios were not different enough from one another. In the course of
examining each scenario we saw that some descriptors moved in blocks, that means that for example
every time descriptor 3a was chosen 4a and 5a were chosen as well and when descriptor 3b was chosen
the other descriptors changed for example to 4b and 5b as well. Such patterns can mean that there
are so-called meta-descriptors. Meta-descriptors are descriptors which include all aspects of the single
descriptors which move together and can replace those if it is appropriate content-wise (Schwarz-
Geschka 2014, p. 16). During the revision of our descriptors we found meta-descriptors which gave us
reason to rework our descriptors. After a second time filling out the consistency matrix we received
better result but we still were not completely satisfied. Although there was variety among the created
scenarios they were lacking differences in important descriptors. Because we did not feel able to
interpret these scenarios into disguisable and probable future developments we went even further
back and reconsidered even our choice of fields of influence. We checked again if we had included all
important influences on the topic and revised the assignment of the descriptors to the fields of
influence. After we improved our work and filled out the consistency matrix again we received 27
scenarios. Among these results we identified four in themselves consistent and distinguishable
scenarios. The consistency of a scenario is reflected by its consistency sum according to with the
scenarios are ranked from highest consistency sum to lowest. The consistency sum is calculated by
adding all the consistencies of the chosen scenario together. It is a relative measurement of quality
depending on the number of descriptors used in the project. The more descriptors are used the higher
the consistency sums. The scenario with the highest consistency sum is the most conclusive scenario.
The four final scenarios which were chosen for interpretation are described in the following chapter.
 Results 22

6 Results
In this section the above mentioned final four scenarios which were created with the help of INKA 4
are going to be interpreted and evaluated. After the final overhaul, we arrived at 17 descriptors from
six different fields of influence to describe the future of smart mobility in Germany. For creating the
scenarios three descriptors were not used in the consistency matrix. Two descriptors were
unambiguous with only one projection. Unambiguous descriptors are not taken into account in the
consistency matrix because they have only one possible outcome and therefore do not bring variation
for the scenarios. One other descriptor was not considered neither because although not unambiguous
it still did not improve the quality of the scenarios.

For calculating scenarios INKA 4 selects the two to four most consistent descriptors and then combines
the projections which fit together the best. In our case the three descriptors: “Government
intervention in Automotive and Technology industries”, “Political collaboration with private sector”
and “Surveillance and sensing infrastructure” were the determined descriptors for the bundling
process. Despite the descriptors being fixed all of their different projections were used to create
scenarios.

The criteria for choosing the scenarios for interpretation were the value of the consistency sum and
the difference between the individual projections of each scenario. Chosen were scenario S-6 further
referred to as #1, scenario S-1 (#2), scenario S-10 (#3) and scenario S-12 (#4). A list with the complete
information about the chosen projections for every individual scenario can be found in the Annex (List
of final descriptors). None of the descriptors has the same projection for every one of the four chosen
scenarios. That means that the four scenarios differ from one another significantly. : : Differences
between scenarios gives an overview about how distinctive the scenarios are.

Scenario #1 #2 #3 #4
Consistency sum 66 54 47 44
Consistency average 1,40 1,35 1,07 1,02
Probability 44 48 45 46
Differences
#1 - 7 10 11
#2 7 - 9 11
#3 10 9 - 6
#4 11 11 6 -

Table 3: Differences between scenarios.

 Results 23

The interpretation of the scenarios depends on their chosen descriptor projections. The selected
projection has to be considered as well as what that selection means in relation to the other
projections selected in that scenario. The full interpretations of the four final scenarios are presented
in the following sub-chapters.

Scenario (S-6) #1: „Big brother is watching you and everybody likes it”
A strong urbanization rate leads to an exponential growth of the cities populations. The resulting
increase in traffic volume needs to be addressed with a smart way of transportation management
which is why the government highly collaborates with the private sector in the use of big data for
innovation.

Besides setting the course for the automotive and ICT-industry through easier regulation processes
and incentives, the government itself uses its financially sound situation to promote and implement
smart solutions. Extensive investment in the German infrastructure does not just include the maintains
and expansion of transport routes but the implementation of improved surveillance and sensing
devices in order to monitor and control mayor transport interchanges more efficiently. A change in the
liabilities for public Wi-Fi-signals leads to the use of Germany’s high potential for free hotspots in cities.
Those hotspots are used heavily by the German public who shares the information to plan routes and
maneuver through the cities via and increasing number of mobile devices like smartphones or tablets
extensively. The amount of the data gather is controlled by a central private hub which provides the
data to companies and organizations in accordance with German law.

The high demand for smart mobility services together with the increased need for intelligent
transportation solution arouses international interest in the German market. The positive climate
which is reinforced by government incentives in the automotive and technology industries not only
entices new Start-ups to enter the market on their own but leads to an increase in investments rates
in research and development activities from automotive companies. Thus the advancements of
operational technologies accelerate, resulting in more precise and faster sensing and surveillance
devices which are implemented in the city infrastructure making public transportation more and more
efficient.

Scenario (S-1) #2: „Old Uncle Sam lets the kids play”
Smart mobility profits from an exponential growth of demand for smart services as well as high interest
in the development of smart cities in Germany from around the world. As the population of cities is
slowly but continuously increasing, automotive companies increase their efforts in researching and
 Results 24

developing new products and services which are efficient enough to cope with the challenge of an
increasing transportation demand.

The government limits its involvement due to a lack of financial resources of the city administrations
to backing the private sector with supporting legislation enabling them to use the gathered information
about the transportation patterns of citizens. Additionally, the government creates incentives for the
technology and automotive industry in order to support intelligent transportation solutions such as
the connection of transportation vehicles like busses, subways and cars with different information
networks for real time traffic management and congestion avoidance. This Laissez-faire environment
enables new Start-ups to enter the market on their own which leads to more innovation and further
development of operational technologies as well as powerful analyzation algorithms which can deal
with the processing of incoming big data.

Because of a lack of mobile hotspots in Germany, common carriers provide fast mobile internet
through LTE technologies. Citizens tolerate the for smart services necessary data collection on a basic
level which together with a steadily increasing number of mobile device users results in a vast
accumulation of movement patterns. The data gathered through the networks is the main source for
the development of smart services since the expansion of the surveillance and sensing infrastructure
is hampered by the aforementioned lack of financial resources of the public authorities.

Scenario (S-10) #3: “The tight grip of the federal data kraken”
Although the vast majority of the German population uses mobile devices such as smartphones and
tablets and accepts the collection of basic data through ICTs as well the government restricts the
processing of this information through the private sector. By controlling the citizens’ information on
its own and increasing the complexity of the regulatory process for the data usage the governments
wants to protect the privacy of its citizens but hampers the development for smart mobility at the
same time. Severely underfunded city administrations prevent the government from implementing
smart transportation solutions necessary surveillance and sensing infrastructure.

A steady number of people move from rural areas to Germany´s cities, but without exponential growth
and the support of the government, smart service demand never reaches a critical level to tip of mayor
developments. As a result, foreign interest in German cities stays on a moderate level. Since the cities
treasuries are empty, mobile hotspots are rare and the main providers for mobile internet are the
common carriers which developed their long term evolution (LTE) networks. At the same time the
government structures the regulation process for the use of data more complex and increases the
restrictions for the industries.
 Results 25

Although the government cooperates with the companies to a certain level, the tougher restrictions
imposed on the firms severely hamper innovations and fruitful collaboration between the public and
the private sectors. Therefore, automotive and technology firms work on implementing ICTs into their
vehicles by their own but because of the difficult situation with the data usage the growth rate of
investments in R&D activities increase only minor. Thus developing sensing devices and other
operational technologies takes more time. Instead they buy Start-ups which provide ready to use
solutions or possess interesting new concepts

Scenario (S-12) #4: “Better safe than sorry”

A healthy financial situation of the cities enables the government to focus on long term goals. Although
growth rate of German cities remained on a moderate level for the last couple of years increasing
traffic volume and fume exhaustion are problems which have to be solved.

Through high collaboration with the private sector as well as the support of Start-ups the government
initiates the creation of new smart solutions. With a change in the liabilities for public Wi-Fi-signals the
high potential for hotspots can be used to provide nearly ubiquitous free internet access in German
cities for the increasing number of mobile device users. Those users are fine with the collection of their
basic data in order to improve smart services for which the demand has been continuously growing
over the past.

While on the one side the government encourages the private sector to innovate, it holds all the strings
in its hand on the other side. Through controlling the private data, the government decides which
companies and organizations it grants access to that information. In combination with increasing
restrictions for the automotive and technology industry the government slows down the ability of
those industries to achieve results in a short time because they restrict investments in research and
development. The development of operational technology is hampered by these conditions as well. By
improving its surveillance and sensing infrastructure only gradually Germany literally follows the motto
“better safe than sorry” thus falling behind in the development of smart cities around the world and
failing to attract high foreign interest in its projects.

Discussion of results
The interpretations of the selected final scenarios describe four unique possibilities in which way the
utilization of big data can influence smart mobility in Germany. The direction of the development of
the four chosen scenarios differ by the pace of adoption of smart services and the control the
government takes over the use of the gathered data. The for the year 2030 forecasted scenarios can
be described as progressive, stagnating or observant. Scenario #1 and #2 are both progressive where
 Results 26

only a few government restrictions for the use of big data exist. In scenario #3 the development of
smart mobility is stagnating because the government has a tight control over the data usage. In #4 the
government holds control over the data as well but allows the use in order to invent new products and
services to have them ready when needed.

Nobody can predict the future and it is not the purpose of scenario planning to do so neither. Scenario
planning intends to reveal the relations between different influences and show a spectrum for future
developments which are substantiated in facts. The scenarios created reflect very different
developments. This was intended by use and can be seen in our number of approaches to create such
results. We base our predictions on at the moment available information and literature. In that sense
we believe our results are valid estimation for future developments.
 Conclusion 27

7 Conclusion
With the beginning of the big data era, the amount as well as the importance of collected data racketed.
Successfully dealing with the mass of data comprises enormous challenges but also a huge potential.
Big data can help to solve problems arising from urbanization and the emergence of mega-cities –
especially problems in the transportation sector. However, it is not clear how big data is going to
develop and how it will influence the development of smart mobility in Germany in the future.

This paper discusses the methodology of scenario planning for the development of smart mobility
using big data in Germany. An overview of smart mobility and smart cities was presented, with the
focus on the main players, trends, development and influencers. As a team we aimed to answer the
main research question: “How is big data going to influence smart mobility in Germany?” After
intensive work, we were able to identify six different fields of influence with a total of 17 important
descriptors. In the end 27 scenarios were created from which four scenarios where chosen for
interpretation.

However, having a limited knowledge on smart cities, smart mobility or scenario planning, the project
caused some difficulties through different stages. Normally the formulation of possible future
scenarios is carried out throughout half a year by a fulltime employee who has expert knowledge about
both scenario planning as well as the field the research is conducted in. As we are neither experts in
smart city concepts nor on scenario planning, we first of all had to establish some basic knowledge in
both of those areas. The literature as well as multiple current reports got us the information to
generate the fields of influence as well as the descriptors and specifications for smart mobility in
Germany. However, the literature available often presented some clear trends and bias into the input
data. In order to counter these effects multiple sources were consulted. Further, the creation of the
descriptors constituted a massive challenge because many descriptors moved in the same direction
due to similarities within them. Therefore, it was required to restart the process over and over again
to obtain the desired data quality and satisfying scenarios.

At the end, four scenarios were selected according to their consistency rating and the differences
between them. Each scenario was interpreted into a possible future reality. The four unique
possibilities describe in which way the utilization of big data can influence smart mobility in Germany.
The difference lies mainly in the pace of adoption of smart cities and the control the government takes
over the use of the gathered data. Two of the scenarios are of a progressive type, one can be seen as
hampered by governmental restrictions and in one the government acts reluctant and observant.

But what does this mean for businesses? Which of the four is the way to go? The need of smart mobility
is becoming more important caused by an increasing urban population as well as environmental
 Conclusion 28

aspects which urge to make transportation less energy consuming and overall efficient in the future.
At this point, it is important to mention that the aim of scenario planning is not to predict the future.
It is rather a possibility to take current information and literature into consideration to make proposals
for the future. The four scenarios show opportunities and drawbacks of possible developments. By
analyzing the four scenarios, businesses – but also state institutions – are able to develop appropriate
strategies to be able to quickly adjust to upcoming realities concerning the implementation of smart
mobility in Germany.

However, since especially the technological and the legal situations1 are continuously changing. Expert
knowledge in both those fields would help to improve the scenarios by quite a bit since legal
implications and technological details can lead to major developments. Constant further research is
therefore required but can build up on the generated results and focus more in-depth on specific areas
of influence. Adjusting the input factors for the latest developments and adding new arising influences
as descriptors refines the predictions made. The results of this paper should therefore be seen as
guideposts which show in the right direction and not as perfect maps. During the journey to the future
you have to continuously incorporate new information to ensure that you are still on course.

1
For instance: while writing this research paper, already one legal aspect changed - the so called Störerhaftung
has been announced to be abolished in the course of a new law regulating the usage of free WiFi (spiegel, 2016)
 Annex V

8 Annex
Differences within the Scenarios -1st trial (14 April 2016)
 Annex VI

Differences within the Scenarios – 2nd trial (22 April 2016)

 Annex VII

Differences within the Scenarios – final (30 May 2016)

 Annex VIII

List of final descriptors

Descriptor name: Acceptance of data collecting through ICT
Area of influence: Society
Current situation: Data security once again is a hot button issue in Germany. The result of a
representative study showed that around 70% of the German population worries about their personal
data and privacy protection. Especially bank and paying information are affected.
Specification A
- Name: Extensive sharing
- Description: Great changes in the attitude towards data collection which is a systematic
approach to gathering information from a variety of sources to improve smart mobility.
- Reason: Users understand and appreciate the benefits of sharing such as the convenient and
inexpensive access to information, goods and services.
- Probability: 20%
Specification B
- Name: Basic Data sharing
- Description: Consumers are more apprehensive about sharing data and are doing it with a
more discerning attitude
- Reason: Users are willing to share personal information in exchange for tangible benefits, with
the understanding of ICT technologies they are often cautious about disclosing their
information.
- Probability: 65%
Specification C
- Name: Preventing on data collection projects
- Description: Due to a feeling of wariness or mistrust users neglect sharing their information
- Reason: Attitude is one of the main components argued to affect the intention to share data
and based on the perceived negative outcomes of sharing information, users can neglect to do
so.
- Probability: 15%
Sources:
- Handelsblatt (2015), Viele Deutsche haben Angst vor Datenklau. available at:
http://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/mobiles-bezahlen-viele-deutsche-haben-
angst-vor-datenklau/11895076.html

Descriptor name: German Smart Services demand

Area of influence: Society
 Annex IX

Current situation: Interest of the German population in smart services. Most of the German population
has a high level of environmental consciousness, according to the result of a survey made by the
Umweltbundesamt. In connection to smart services, the demand for car-sharing institution increased
enormously during the last years but in contrast to that the sale of electric cars runs slow.
Specification A
- Name: Linear growth
- Description: Smart services will be developed in no sensitive areas.
- Reason: There are some examples of development of smart services. The German city of
Wiesbaden provides an ingenious way to ensure that bike paths are built where they’re most
needed using data of bike rides to determine important bike routes.
- Probability: 55%
Specification B
- Name: Exponential growth
- Description: The innovative use of data helps to provide better and more inventive services to
increase the demand of smart services in
- Reason: Due to connectivity offer by big data users can increase the awareness of the urban
environment and to enhance the interaction with its inhabitants.
- Probability: 45%
Sources:
- Bundesumweltministerium (2014). Umweltbewusstsein in Deutschland. Available at:
http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/umweltbewusstsein-in-deutschland-2014;
- Anzahl der Carsharing-Fahrberechtigen in Deutschland nach Varianten (Stand: 1. Januar 2016).
Available at: http://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/202416/umfrage/entwicklung-
dercarsharing-nutzer-in-deutschland/

Descriptor name: Usage of mobile devices

Area of influence: Society
Current situation: Development of the usage of mobile device that allow people to access data and
information form where ever they are. This includes cell phones and mobile devices.
Specification A
- Name: Extensive usage
- Description: In the case of smartphones, such devices also generate log data via the use of
mobile applications, financial transaction data associated with mobile banking and shopping,
and social media data from updates to Facebook, Twitter and other social networks.
 Annex X

- Reason: From 2014 to 2016, statistics show that the number of smartphone users increased
during the last years. The forecast estimates that the smartphone penetration rate will reach
about 84% by 2019. The volume of mobile data and the speed at which it is created is only
going to increase as both the global population and mobile device penetration rates rise, and
the use of social media increases.
- Probability: 100%
Sources:
- Share of mobile phone users that use a smartphone in Germany from 2014 to 2019. Available
at: http://www.statista.com/statistics/257056/smartphone-user-penetration-in-germany/
- Bitkom Study (2015). 44 Millionen Deutsche nutzen ein Smartphone. available at:
https://www.bitkom.org/Presse/Presseinformation/44-Millionen-Deutsche-nutzen-ein-
Smartphone.html

Descriptor name: Fast Mobile Internet

Area of influence: Society
Current situation: With 1.87 Wifi-Hotspots per 10.000 inhabitants, Germany is lacking behind in
international comparisons but the number of Wifi-capable devices is double of the worldwide average.
Legal issues like the "Störerhaftung" prevent the exploitation of this potential in Germany. On the
other hand, Germany is in the leading group in case of LTE coverage.
Specification A
- Name: Free hot spots available in cities
- Description: Providing areas with wide fast mobile internet to secure viability of mobile
devices.
- Reason: Germany is making an effort to catch up in terms of providing public networks. Part
of this push is commercially motivated, since Internet access via hotspots is becoming a
competitive advantage, as well as an attractive business model for many providers.
- Probability: 40%
Specification B
- Name: Private mobile internet
- Description: Spread of LTE or wireless communication of high-speed data for mobile phones
and data terminals.
- Reason: Limited development of wifi-hotspots as result of unchanged restrictive legal
frameworks such as Störerhaftung will spread the use of private mobile internet to solve
connectivity issues.
- Probability: 60%
 Annex XI

Sources:
- Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie. (2016). Mehr Rechtssicherheit bei WLAN.
Available at: http://www.bmwi.de/DE/Themen/Digitale-Welt/Netzpolitik/rechtssicherheit-
wlan.html
- Dörner, S. (2015). Deutsche zahlen gewaltig für winziges Datenvolumen. Die Welt. Available
at: http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/webwelt/article141320502/Deutsche-zahlen-gewaltig-
fuer-winziges-Datenvolumen.html

Descriptor name: Development of Smart Cities around the world

Area of influence: Society
Current situation: Germany recognizes the crucial importance of cities in safeguarding a sustainable
and more prosperous future. The country is active in a number of projects. Nevertheless, other
European countries like f. ex. Spain Sweden and the Netherlands payed much more attention of
becoming a lead provider of complete smart technology solutions in their cities.
Specification A
- Name: Exponential interest in development in Germany
- Description: The interest of Germany in developing smart cities increases as a result of
development in other countries
- Reason: Today’s top-five smart cities around the globe are: Singapore, Barcelona, London, San
Francisco and Oslo, showing a significant growth in activities for areas such as smart parking,
traffic management, lighting, security, waste control, and many others.
- Probability: 40%
Specification B
- Name: Moderate Interest in development in Germany
- Description: Existing initiatives such as Smart City Berlin Strategy
- Reason: Germany have identified urban development as a key political issue for the future and
order to promote development of smart cities, it has lunched several smart grid projects
currently underway, in total they are 131 projects up to date.
- Probability: 40%
Specification C
- Name: Low interest in development in Germany
- Description: Activities are focused in other areas. Furthermore development of smart mobility
in smart cities is not a priority.
 Annex XII

- Reason: Development of smart cites in Germany is more related to energy provision and
energy awareness instead of smart mobility as part of the Energiewende plan for 2020
- Probability: 20%
Sources:
- Barcelona world’s smartest city (2015). Available at:
https://eusmartcities.eu/content/barcelona-world’s-smartest-city-2015
- Germany Trade & Invest. Smart Cities. Available at:
https://www.gtai.de/GTAI/Navigation/EN/Invest/Industries/Smarter-business/Smart-
living/smart-cities.html
- Peeples, D. (2016) Europe is demanding a common smart city platform. Should you be doing
the same? Available at: http://smartcitiescouncil.com/article/europe-demanding-common-
smart-city-platform-should-you-be-doing-same
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (2015) Zukunftsstadt, Strategische Forschungs-
und Innovationsagenda. http://www.nationale-plattform-zukunftsstadt.de/BMBF_NPZ-
FINA_Ansicht.pdf

Descriptor name: Urbanization

Area of influence: Urbanization
Current situation: In 2014, 75% of the German population lived in cities, ascending trend. In the last
years, there was a movement from the rural areas to the cities because of following factors:
demographic change, higher energy prices, fiscal interventions and a lot of traffic on the streets. In
total there is a decrease in the German population, nevertheless there is an increase in the population
of medium-sized cities
Specification A
- Name: Strong Urbanization rate
- Description: An expected increase in the population in cities and towns versus rural areas.
- Reason: Approximately half the population of Germany lives in the 30 major urban German
agglomerations, such as Berlin, Hamburg, Munich (München), and Cologne (Köln) but also in
smaller cities including Münster, Freiburg, Leipzig, and Dresden. This tendency seems to
increase in the future as part of the demographic process and economic development.
- Probability: 55%
Specification B
- Name: Moderate Urbanization rate
- Description: Urbanization increases however not as expected.
 Annex XIII

- Reason: Even with the high rates of re-urbanization, the suburban areas often have stagnating
or even declining populations as a result of aging in German population.
- Probability: 30%
Specification C
- Name: Exodus from the city
- Description: Switching from big cities to small cities and rural areas
- Reason: With the development of cities pollution will increase citizens and families will look
forward to countryside.
- Probability: 15%
Sources:
- Europäische Union: Urbanisierungsgrad in den Mitgliedsstaaten im Jahr 2014. Available at:
http://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/249029/umfrage/urbanisierung-in-den-eu-
laendern/
- Worldbank Data on Urban population. Available at:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
- Hennig, B., and Kaup, S. (2015). The Growth and Decline of Urban Agglomerations in Germany
Available at: http://www.viewsoftheworld.net/?p=4625

Descriptor name: Automotive R&D investments rate

Area of influence: Innovativeness
Current situation: Investment in research and development to maintain the competitiveness
worldwide in automotive industry German OEMs are responsible for around one third of international
automotive R&D expenditure, with R&D investments amounting to EUR 17.6 billion in 2014. Germany
is considered the most innovative automotive hub in international comparison.
Specification A
- Name: Strong continuous growth
- Description: Germany’s Automotive R&D infrastructure enables companies to develop
cutting- edge technologies
- Reason: The automotive industry is the largest industry sector in Germany. In 2015, the auto
sector listed a turnover of EUR 404 billion, around 20 percent of total German industry
revenue. In 2015, domestic internal automotive industry R&D expenditure reached EUR 20.6
billion, equivalent to 40 percent of Germany’s total R&D expenditure.
- Probability: 70%
Specification B
 Annex XIV

- Name: Moderate growth

- Description: The worldwide automotive growth is slowing Down
- Reason: Over the next five years the global automotive industry faces a reduced market
growth, down from an annual 3.1% (between 2007 and 2014) to an annual 2.6% (between
2015 and 2021), such situation might be due to political and economic instability.
- Probability: 30%
Sources:
- Industry overview the Automotive Industry in Germany (2015). Available at:
https://www.gtai.de/GTAI/Content/EN/Invest/_SharedDocs/Downloads/GTAI/Industry-
overviews/industry-overviewautomotive-industry-en.pdf?v=9

Descriptor name: Venture Capitalism in Technology Industry

Area of influence: Innovativeness
Current situation: In the first half of 2015 Investment into start-ups reach 1,638 USD million in
Germany alone surpassing the previous year. This momentum is driven by the key regional tech hubs
in Berlin, Hamburg and Munich.
Specification A
- Name: Strong continuous growth
- Description: A change on the country's approach to innovation will provide support to
startups.
- Reason: An increasing number of firms are forming partnerships with startups in an effort to
step away from conservative business approaches and embrace a rapidly evolving tech culture.
- Probability: 40
Specification B
- Name: Moderate growth
- Description: Culture of investing in start-ups is not as widely spread as investing in stablished
companies.
- Reason: Germany has been trying to become the next big European tech hub, Berlin continues
to dominate the German venture capital scene, accounting for over 40% of all investments to
German Venture capitalism-backed companies since 2012 and over 55% of all funding.
However, compared to other regions is still laying behind.
- Probability: 60
Sources:
 Annex XV

- L Ernst & Young GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. (2015). Liquidity meets perspective:

Venture Capital and Start-ups in Germany 2015. Available at:
http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/ey-venture-capital-and-start-ups-in-germany-
2015/$FILE/ey-venture-capital-and-start-ups-in-germany-2015.pdf

Descriptor name: Government intervention in Automotive and Technology Industry

Area of influence: Politics
Current situation: Subsidized loan programs in Germany to boost the economy and to maintain
competiveness. There is a subsidized program addressed to electric cars, moreover the programmes
“EXIST”, “GO-Bio”, “IKT Innovativ”, “INVEST” and “High-Tech Gründerfonds” are helping to increase
the numbers of start-ups – and doing so especially in the early phases of new technological
developments.
Specification A
- Name: Increase government incentives
- Description: The government will give more incentives for automotive industry and
Technology industry development in terms of resources allocation to increase new technology
development.
- Reason: The German federal government promotes research through the so-called High-Tech
Strategy. This initiative defines areas of particular significance due to their contribution to
solving global challenges. Support is also granted to key technologies that act as innovation
drivers. Moreover, there are also subsidy programs in place for all types of technology that are
primarily targeted at small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The “Central Innovation
Program for SMEs” (ZIM) is the best known of these programs; its aim is to promote innovation
and competitiveness at SMEs.
- Probability: 50
Specification B
- Name: Increase of governmental restrictions
- Description: The government will issue new restrictive laws and procedures
- Reason: The lack of financing in the technology industry and the possible crisis events in EU,
based on the current financial and political situation in many countries, can cause more
restrictions for grating subsides and allocation different resources within both sectors.
- Probability: 50
Sources:
 Annex XVI

- Germany Trade and Invest (2015). Industry overview the Automotive Industry in Germany
2015-2016. Available at:
https://www.gtai.de/GTAI/Content/EN/Invest/_SharedDocs/Downloads/GTAI/Industry-
overviews/industry-overview-automotive-industry-en.pdf?v=9
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (2014). The new High-Tech Strategy
Innovations for Germany. Available at:
https://www.bmbf.de/pub/HTS_Broschuere_engl_bf.pdf

Descriptor name: Regulations for Data Usage

Area of influence: Politics
Current situation: providers of public Wifi may be held legally responsible for any (illegal) misuse of
the offered data connection. March 2016: the advocate general of the ECJ claims that public Wifi
providers cannot be held legally responsible for a third party's misuse of the provided data connection.
German government intends to revise the law regarding 'Störerhaftung'.
Specification A
- Name: Regulatory processes become more complex
- Description: In order to supervise the use of data new regulatory frameworks are developed
- Reason: The German Federal Government acknowledged in the Coalition Contract, and
highlighted in the Digital Agenda, their intention to exploit local wireless networks as Internet
access in public spaces however according to the Federal Government, a new legal security
framework is urgently required for Wi-Fi operators to prevent any misbehavior
- Probability: 40
Specification B
- Name: Regulatory processes stay the same
- Description: Störerhaftung is not changed
- Reason: For years, organizations and individuals have been calling for Germany to abolish or
at least curtail this so-called "liability of duty" (Störerhaftung), but some parties of the
government refuses due to such a move is neither appropriate nor necessary
- Probability:40
Specification C
- Name: Regulatory processes will become easier
- Description: Changement/ Abolishment of Störerhaftung partly due to social and economic
pressure allows expansion of public Wifi/freely accessible Hotspots and a simultaneous
reduction of legal risks for the providers.
 Annex XVII

- Reason: The goal of the Federal Government is to improve the spread and availability of the
mobile Internet using Wi-Fi.
- Probability: 20
Sources:
- Anon., (2015). Electronic Frontier Foundation. available at:
closedwifiasanobstacletolegitimatetrade-4.pdf
- Bohsem,G., (2016). Süddeutsche Zeitung. available at:
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/digital/stoererhaftung-eugh-anwaltoffene-wlans-muessen-
nicht-verschluesselt-werden-1.2910059
- Reinbold, F. (2015). Spiegel Online. available at:
http://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/netzpolitik/bundeslaender-wollenhuerden-fuer-freie-wlan-
netze-abschaffen-a-1060936.html

Descriptor name: Political collaboration with private sector

Area of influence: Politics
Current situation: Collaboration, including financial support for R&D, to spur development and
implementation of smart and sustainable mobility as well as the necessary infrastructure. Cooperation
of government and industry (e.g. field projects, statutory promotion ...)
Specification A
- Name: Moderate collaboration
- Description: German state has a limited role in industrial development
- Reason: German government operates in an ‘enabling’, rather than strategic, capacity in
industry by supporting key institutions, such as the training system and underwriting company
loans.
- Probability: 35
Specification B
- Name: High Collaboration
- Description: The German government makes grants and incentives available to certain target
groups and for certain projects.
- Reason: The German government is actively encouraging certain new technologies that might
contribute in the achievement of long term governmental plans, the latest example is linked
to the Energiewende 2020, in which Germany's government and the auto industry have agreed
on introducing an incentive of 4,000 euros for electric car buyers and 3,000 euros for those
purchasing a plug-in hybrid vehicle.
 Annex XVIII

- Probability: 65
Sources:
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (2016). Die Bundesregierung. Available at:
http://www.hightechstrategie.de/de/Zukunftsprojekte-der-Bundesregierung-972.php
- Presse und Informationsamt der Bundesregierung, (2016). Die Bundesregierung. Available at:
https://www.bundesregierung.de/Webs/Breg/DE/Themen/Energiewende/Mobilitaet/ramsa
uer/_node.html
- Forum ElektroMobilität e.V. (2016). Forum Elektromobilität. Available at:
http://www.forumelektromobilitaet.de/flycms/de/web/43/-/Foerderdatenbank.html#h3_1

Descriptor name: Data privacy protection

Area of influence: Politics
Current situation: With the application of smart mobility comes a constant observation and data
collection on people’s transportation patterns as well as their behaviors. Consumers concern over
organizations‫ ׳‬data collection methods, especially the use of tracking technologies. Yet, some
companies have been engaged in questionable data collection and sharing practices such as Nissan,
Apple and Google. So far there are no concrete laws or agencies set up to deal with the mass collection
of data and the compliance of legal surveillance.
Specification A
- Name: Service providers control data
- Description: Companies offering smart mobility services own the data.
- Reason: According to Federal Data Protection Act that companies are allowed to process
personal data only if it is permitted by the user, however it doesn’t state abut ownership.
- Probability: 10
Specification B
- Name: Government controls data
- Description: A governmental dependency is created to control mobility data
- Reason: Data privacy regulations in the Germany is among the strictest in the world.
Companies opting to implement cloud application services in Germany must navigate a layered
and complex web of regulations, therefore governmental agencies are more plausible to own
the data.
- Probability: 60
Specification C
- Name: Private central hub controls data
- Description: A separate private company administrates the mobility data
 Annex XIX

- Reason: No new governmental dependency is created furthermore, a private company

controlled by complex privacy protection laws administrates mobility data.
- Probability: 30
Sources:
- Source: Kshetri, Nir (2013). Big Data's impact on privacy, security and consumer welfare

Descriptor name: Financial situation of cities

Area of influence: Politics
Current situation:
Situation of household budgets of German cities. The gap between rich and poor cities in Germany has
been rising over the past years. Although a number of cities like Wolfsburg or Dresden could reduce
their debt, a lot of cities face an increasing amount of liabilities. Four out of five cities and communities
want to increase taxes and fees and decreases services in order to tackle their household deficits.
Specification A
- Name: Healthy financial situation
- Description: Clear reduction in debt levels in the coming years
- Reason: The increase in taxes and fees will generate enough revenues for developing programs
and benefits.
- Probability: 30
Specification B
- Name: Empty public treasuries
- Description: Given the current economic situation of many German cities, public treasuries
might suffer a budget deficit
- Reason: By 2014, 79% of the North Rhine-Westphalian municipalities presented budget deficit,
additionally due to the current refugees’ crisis the German government will have to spend 50
billion euros on refugees during the following years, such disparity will cause slowness in the
development of other projects.
- Probability: 70
Sources:
- Ernst & Young GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. (2015). Kommunen in der Finanzkrise:
Status quo und Handlungsoptionen. Available at:
http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-Kommunenstudie-
2015/$FILE/EYKommunenstudie-2015.pdf.
 Annex XX

- Deutscher Städtetag. (2015). Kommunale Finanzlage und föderale Finanzbeziehungen.

Available at: http://www.staedtetag.de/dst/inter/schwerpunkte/057866/index.html.

Descriptor name: Diversification of Transportation Industry

Area of influence: Industry
Current situation: In 2015, around 15 billion products around the world are connected to the Internet.
By 2020, this figure is expected to rise to 30 billion. Automakers are increasingly seeing themselves as
both product manufacturers and mobility services companies. Nowadays leading automakers are
developing cars that park themselves, brake at the sign of danger and stay in lanes without driver
assistance.
Specification A
- Name: Telecommunications and IT systems
- Description: Technological improvements in computers, smartphones, wireless
communications and the cloud have converged to advance safety for connected consumers.
The percentage of new passenger cars globally shipping with factory-installed telematics (IT
Technologies) will increase from nearly 10 percent in 2010 to 62 percent in 2016,
- Reason: In addition to developing next-generation connected and autonomous vehicles that
will improve traffic flows and safety, automakers worldwide are investing in a wide swath of
new mobility services everything from carsharing and rental services to multimodal trip-
planning apps.
- Probability: 95
Sources:
- Viechnicki, P., Khuperkar, A., (2015). Smart mobility: Reducing congestion and fostering faster,
greener, and cheaper transportation options. Available at: http://dupress.com/articles/smart-
mobility-trends/
- Edit: Kagermann, H., Riemensperger, F., (2015) Smart Service Welt 2015. Available at:
https://www.eitdigital.eu/fileadmin/files/2015/publications/acatech_report_SmartServiceW
elt2015_short_en.pdf

Descriptor name: Market entry strategies for start ups

Area of influence: Industry
Current situation: Opportunities for start-ups and SMEs through efficient market access and rapid
scalability due to innovation cycles of new market players from digital niche markets are significantly
 Annex XXI

shorter than the development cycles of product manufacturers. However, the difficulty to get financial
resources can prevent entrepreneurs from entering the market.
Specification A
- Name: Start-ups successfully enter market on their own
- Description: Start-ups are able to overcome difficulties and therefore can enter to the market
by their own
- Reason: With the development of smart cities initiatives it is possible to target niche markets
benefiting from the revenues.
- Probability: 40
Specification B
- Name: Start-ups innovate to be acquired by large firms
- Description: Due to economic and managerial barriers Start-ups are unable to take off
however one company’s failure can be another company’s win; they sell the innovation to
large firms.
- Reason: Innovation is an intensive process that requires expertise, while many start-ups may
produce an “invention” it is very difficult for them to transform it into a new service.
- Probability: 50
Specification C
- Name: Start-ups partner with government and enter market
- Description: Start-ups rely on cooperation with the government to enter the market.
- Reason: with the Public Private Partnerships in Germany companies are invited to propose
joint projects that meet specified criteria. However, such due to the partnerships such projects
are not fully independent and the accompaniment is limited.
- Probability: 10
Sources:
- Edit: Kagermann, H., Riemensperger, F., (2015) Smart Service Welt 2015. Available at
https://www.eitdigital.eu/fileadmin/files/2015/publications/acatech_report_SmartServiceW
elt2015_short_en.pdf

Descriptor name: Development of operational technologies

Area of influence: Industry
Current situation: Operational technologies (sensors, surveillance, controls) generate raw data
material required for smart solutions: the data. ICT Strategy of the German Federal Government:
Digital Germany and IST Action Plan for Roads form the framework for further development of
technologies, including operational technology, to achieve a more efficient management of the
 Annex XXII

transport network for passengers and business, pressing forward with research and development on
new technologies and enhancing security and trust in the digital world.
Specification A
- Name: Further development
- Description: With the implementation of the ICT strategy, the Federal Government is seeking
to contribute to promoting sustainable economic growth, help create new jobs and bring
about social benefits.
- Reason: The Federal Government’s ICT strategy is aligned with the goals of the Digital Agenda
for Europe and will further enhance Germany’s international competitiveness as a business
location.
- Probability: 65
Specification B
- Name: Moderate development
- Description: Small and medium-sized enterprises are the mainly drivers of the ICT industry
- Reason: There is a disproportionally large number of small size companies and only a few
medium-sized suppliers in the German software industry in particular, which do not invest
large amount of resources in research and development triggering a moderate growth rate.
- Probability: 35
Sources:
- Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi) (2012). ICT Strategy of the German
Federal Government: Digital Germany. Available at:
https://www.bmwi.de/English/Redaktion/Pdf/ict-strategy-digital-germany-
2015,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=en,rwb=true.pdf
- Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development. ITS Action Plan for the Roads.
Available at:
http://www.bmvi.de//cae/servlet/contentblob/103328/publicationFile/70494/its-action-
plan-roads.pdf

Descriptor name: Surveillance and sensing infrastructure

Area of influence: Infrastructure
Current situation: The first draft of the Bundesverkehrswegeplan 2030 plans most of the budget for
maintenance and improvement of existing and important transport routes and traffic knots. Only a
minuscule amount is devised to sensoring and surveillance infrastructure.
Specification A
- Name: Extensive development in public infrastructure
 Annex XXIII

- Description: Development and expansion of controlling devices for traffic surveillance and
management.
- Reason: In order to meet the challenges of the 21st century in the field of road transport,
transport policy employing of intelligent transport systems (ITS) will be accelerated in
Germany as part of the Bundesverkehrswegeplan 2030 plans
- Probability: 20
Specification B
- Name: Moderate development in public infrastructure
- Description: German government focuses on development of certain infrastructure
- Reason: For the required infrastructure it is needed stable digital data transmission for the
entire country. There are gaps in the supply, particularly in rural areas, which need to be
bridged. However, the budget for this activity is limited.
- Probability: 70
Specification C
- Name: Limited development in public infrastructure
- Description: Other projects remain more important for the government
- Reason: Without a clear national strategy. Germany will not be able to constructively improve
public infrastructure and effectively employ sensoring and surveillance technologies
- Probability: 10
Sources:
- Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur. (2016). Bundesverkehrswegeplan
Entwurf März 2016, p. V. Berlin. Available at:
https://www.bmvi.de/SharedDocs/DE/Anlage/VerkehrUndMobilitaet/BVWP/bvwp-2030-
gesamtplan.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
 References XXIV

9 References
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and Initiatives. Journal of Urban Technology, 22(1), pp.3-21.

Al-Khouri, A. (2012). Data Ownership: Who Owns 'My Data'? International Journal of Management &
Information Technology, Volume 2, No 1. [Online] Available at:
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[Accessed April 2016].

Anon., (2015). Electronic Frontier Foundation. [Online] Available at:

closedwifiasanobstacletolegitimatetrade-4.pdf
[Accessed April 2016].

Anzahl der Carsharing-Fahrberechtigen in Deutschland nach Varianten (Stand: 1. Januar 2016).

[Online] Available at: http://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/202416/umfrage/entwicklung-
dercarsharing-nutzer-in-deutschland/
[Accessed April 2016].

Axson, D. A., 2011. Scenario Planning: Navigating Through Today's Uncertain World. Journal of
Accountancy, March, pp. 22-27.

Barcelona world’s smartest city (2015). [Online] Available at:

https://eusmartcities.eu/content/barcelona-world’s-smartest-city-2015
[Accessed April 2016].

Bitkom Study (2015). 44 Millionen Deutsche nutzen ein Smartphone. [Online] Available at:
https://www.bitkom.org/Presse/Presseinformation/44-Millionen-Deutsche-nutzen-ein-
Smartphone.htm
[Accessed May 2016].

Bohsem,G., (2016). Süddeutsche Zeitung. [Online] Available at:

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/digital/stoererhaftung-eugh-anwaltoffene-wlans-muessen-nicht-
verschluesselt-werden-1.2910059
[Accessed April 2016].

Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (2014). The new High-Tech Strategy Innovations for
Germany. [Online] Available at: https://www.bmbf.de/pub/HTS_Broschuere_engl_bf.pdf
[Accessed May 2016].
 References XXV

Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (2015). Zukunftsstadt, Strategische Forschungs- und
Innovationsagenda. [Online] Available at http://www.nationale-plattform-
zukunftsstadt.de/BMBF_NPZ-FINA_Ansicht.pdf
[Accessed May 2016].

Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (2016). Die Bundesregierung. [Online] Available at:
http://www.hightechstrategie.de/de/Zukunftsprojekte-der-Bundesregierung-972.php
[Accessed April 2016].

Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur. (2016). Bundesverkehrswegeplan Entwurf

März 2016, p. V. Berlin: Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur.

Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie. (2016). Mehr Rechtssicherheit bei WLAN. Available
at: http://www.bmwi.de/DE/Themen/Digitale-Welt/Netzpolitik/rechtssicherheit-wlan.html
[Accessed April 2016].

Bundesumweltministerium (2014). Umweltbewusstsein in Deutschland. [Online] Available at:

http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/umweltbewusstsein-in-deutschland-2014
[Accessed April 2016].

Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2015). World Population Prospects The 2015 Revision.
United Nations. [Online] Available at:
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/publications/files/key_findings_wpp_2015.pdf
[Accessed April 2016].

Deutscher Städtetag. (2015). Kommunale Finanzlage und föderale Finanzbeziehungen. Available at:
http://www.staedtetag.de/dst/inter/schwerpunkte/057866/index.html.
[Accessed April 2016].

Dörner, S. (2015) Deutsche zahlen gewaltig für winziges Datenvolumen. Available at:
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