Steffen Et Al 2018 Trajectories of The Earth System in The Anthropocene - 0
Steffen Et Al 2018 Trajectories of The Earth System in The Anthropocene - 0
Steffen Et Al 2018 Trajectories of The Earth System in The Anthropocene - 0
PERSPECTIVE
Trajectories of the Earth System in
the Anthropocene
Will Steffena,b,1, Johan Rockströma, Katherine Richardsonc, Timothy M. Lentond, Carl Folkea,e, Diana Livermanf,
Colin P. Summerhayesg, Anthony D. Barnoskyh, Sarah E. Cornella, Michel Crucifixi,j, Jonathan F. Dongesa,k,
Ingo Fetzera, Steven J. Ladea,b, Marten Schefferl, Ricarda Winkelmannk,m, and Hans Joachim Schellnhubera,k,m,1
Edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved July 6, 2018 (received for review June 19, 2018)
We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary
threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and
cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing
the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past
1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine
the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the
resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Col-
lective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a
habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere,
climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere
carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and trans-
formed social values.
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Earth System trajectories climate change Anthropocene biosphere feedbacks tipping elements |
The Anthropocene is a proposed new geological ep- recognizing that different societies around the world
och (1) based on the observation that human impacts have contributed differently and unequally to pres-
on essential planetary processes have become so pro- sures on the Earth System and will have varied capa-
found (2) that they have driven the Earth out of the bilities to alter future trajectories (4), the sum total of
Holocene epoch in which agriculture, sedentary com- human impacts on the system needs to be taken into
munities, and eventually, socially and technologically account for analyzing future trajectories of the
complex human societies developed. The formaliza- Earth System.
tion of the Anthropocene as a new geological epoch is Here, we explore potential future trajectories of the
being considered by the stratigraphic community (3), Earth System by addressing the following questions.
but regardless of the outcome of that process, it is
Is there a planetary threshold in the trajectory of the
becoming apparent that Anthropocene conditions
Earth System that, if crossed, could prevent stabili-
transgress Holocene conditions in several respects
zation in a range of intermediate temperature rises?
(2). The knowledge that human activity now rivals geo-
logical forces in influencing the trajectory of the Earth Given our understanding of geophysical and bio-
System has important implications for both Earth Sys- sphere feedbacks intrinsic to the Earth System,
tem science and societal decision making. While where might such a threshold be?
a
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden; bFenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian
National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; cCenter for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Natural History
Museum of Denmark, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark; dEarth System Science Group, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter,
EX4 4QE Exeter, United Kingdom; eThe Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Science, SE-10405 Stockholm, Sweden;
f
School of Geography and Development, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721; gScott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge University, CB2 1ER
Cambridge, United Kingdom; hJasper Ridge Biological Preserve, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305; iEarth and Life Institute, Université catholique de
Louvain, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; jBelgian National Fund of Scientific Research, 1000 Brussels, Belgium; kResearch Domain Earth System Analysis,
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; lDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University & Research,
6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands; and mDepartment of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
Author contributions: W.S., J.R., K.R., T.M.L., C.F., D.L., C.P.S., A.D.B., S.E.C., M.C., J.F.D., I.F., S.J.L., M.S., R.W., and H.J.S. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
Published under the PNAS license.
1
To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: [email protected] or [email protected].
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115/-/DCSupplemental.
Table 1. Carbon cycle feedbacks in the Earth System that could accelerate global warming
Strength of feedback Refs. (SI Appendix, Table
Feedback by 2100,* °C S2 has more details)