AsiaNaphtha Sample
AsiaNaphtha Sample
AsiaNaphtha Sample
Naphtha Freight
Route Value NAPHTHA
SINGAPORE-JAPAN ($/bbl) 1.69
KOREA-JAPAN ($‘000) 267.50 • H2 Mar buying spree continues from KR
AG-JAPAN LR 1 ($/mt) 18.93 • HFRN-OSN spread narrows further
AG-JAPAN LR 2 ($/mt) 13.51 • JP nap production up sharply on high
AG-JAPAN LR 1 (WS) 105.46 cracker run-rates
AG-JAPAN LR 2 (WS) 78.90
Editorial Contacts
10.0
David Wang [email protected]
5.0 Jinchul Kim [email protected]
Jungwoo Hwang [email protected]
0.0 John Koh [email protected]
25/1 31/1 3/2 8/2 Ronald Kwan [email protected]
Inter-Month Spread E-W Spread Jiwon Chung [email protected]
CFR Korea Differential
Open Spec Naphtha Mid-Day Paper ($/mt) OPIS Asia Naphtha Methodology
Laycan Low High Mean Change
H2 Mar 510.50 511.50 511.00 -16.00 OPIS Asia assesses the naphtha market in Asia,
H1 Apr 506.00 507.00 506.50 -16.00 providing accurate and up-to-date price
H2 Apr 502.00 503.00 502.50 -15.50 assessments based on CFR and FOB
assessments seen in different markets in the
Open Spec Naphtha Close Paper ($/mt) world..
Laycan Low High Mean Change
H2 Mar 512.00 513.00 512.50 -10.00 The Asian naphtha assessments reflect spot
H1 Apr 507.50 508.50 508.00 -10.00 prices based primarily on deals, bids, and offers
H2 Apr 503.50 504.50 504.00 -10.00 done typically on a fixed-price basis, reflecting
values prevailing at the close of the market, with
Northwest Europe Mid-Day Naphtha Swaps ($/mt) priority given to deals done in the markets.
Laycan Low High Mean Change
Mar 481.75 482.75 482.25 -16.00 OPIS naphtha methodology builds on the basis
Apr 478.00 479.00 478.50 -15.25 of the latest CFR FAR EAST OPEN SPEC
May 474.25 475.25 474.75 -15.00 NAPHTHA CONTRACT agreed upon in the
industry.
Northwest Europe Close Naphtha Swap ($/mt)
Laycan Low High Mean Change OPIS uses daily forward paper/swaps value as a
Mar 484.75 485.75 485.25 -12.00 basis of our Asian daily assessments. While
Apr 481.00 482.00 481.50 -11.25 mid-day values are used as a reference, we use
May 477.25 478.25 477.75 -11.00 the numbers at market close (at 16:30 Singapore
time) to calculate OPIS final signature values.
Naphtha East-West Spreads ($/mt)
Laycan Low High E-W Change In markets where number of trades, bids and
Mar 12.75 13.75 13.25 0.00 offers are limited due to low liquidity, price
Apr 12.75 13.75 13.25 0.00 assessment may be assessed relative to other
May 12.75 13.75 13.25 0.00 locations, for example, through direct freight
netback.
FOB Singapore Mid-Day Naphtha Swap ($/bbl)
Laycan Low High Mean Change CFR JP Prop/Nap, LPG/Nap Ratio
Feb 54.75 54.85 54.80 -1.75 1.15
Mar 53.85 53.95 53.90 -1.70
Apr 53.20 53.30 53.25 -1.75 1.08
525
475
425
375
H2 Mar H1 Apr H2 Apr
Naphtha Propane LPG
Today’s FOB Arab Gulf Spot Differential ($/mt) * The 22nd China LPG Conference will
Market Low High Mean Change
take place over Mar 15-17 in
PROPANE -2.50 -1.50 -2.00 -2.00
Chengdu, China
BUTANE 97.50 98.50 98.00 8.00
7.0 Gasoline
25/1 31/1 3/2 8/2
97 RON 95 RON 92 RON
• JP exports stable amid healthy margins
Oil Price Information Service Asia • Pertamina charters urgent cargo headed
TEL: +65 6439 6282 for Balongan
TEL: +65 6439 6281 • Kenya oil agency awards gasoline
tenders
FOB Singapore Spot Diff. Calculation (92 RON)
Date Bid Offer Deal Diff The Singapore 92 RON gasoline crack
23-Feb 11.61
dipped 17 cents on Wednesday to $11.44/
24-Feb 11.61
bbl, with those for the 95 and 97 RON
25-Feb 11.61
26-Feb 11.60 11.60 gasoline closing at $14.06/bbl and $15.35/
27-Feb 11.60 11.60 bbl.
28-Feb 11.60 11.60
1-Mar 11.60 11.60
February 92 RON gasoline swaps dipped
2-Mar 11.60 11.60
90 cents to $66.00/bbl amid two 92 RON
3-Mar 11.61
4-Mar 11.61 deals done in the spot window.
5-Mar 11.61
6-Mar 11.64 11.69 Vitol bought a Feb 26-Mar 2 loading cargo
7-Mar 11.64 11.69 each from Shell at $66.30/bbl to Singapore
8-Mar 11.64 11.69
quotes, which worked out to $11.65/bbl to
9-Mar 11.64 11.69
naphtha quotes.
10-Mar 11.64 11.69
Notional Diff 11.61 Diff 11.63 ( Continued on page 10 )
CFR Japan Close Naphtha Swap ($/mt) CFR Propane, LPG/CFR Naphtha Ratio
Laycan Low High Mean Change Laycan Pro/Nap Change LPG/Nap Change
Mar 497.50 498.50 498.00 -13.00 H2 Mar 0.95 0.00 1.04 0.00
Apr 493.75 494.75 494.25 -12.25 H1 Apr 0.90 0.01 0.98 0.01
May 490.00 491.00 490.50 -12.00 H2 Apr 0.90 0.02 0.97 0.02
Japan Swaps vs. Naphtha NWE Naphtha Spot Cargo Flow Economics
525 550
500 500
475 450
450 400
425 350
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug US Para. AG WCI H2 Mar H1 Apr H2 Apr
Japan Swaps NWE Paper FOB/CFR Prices Freight
16.0 1.10
14.0 1.00
12.0 0.90
10.0 0.80
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 25/1 31/1 3/2 8/2
East-West Spread MTD AVG (CP+Fr+Prem)/Nap Swap Ratio
MTD AVG Prop CFR JP/Nap Swap Ratio
Est’d Spot Prices with Freight to Japan ($/mt) LPG Mont Belvieu Forward ($/mt)
Loading Low High Mean Change Laycan Low High Mean Change
Mt. Bel 494.75 504.75 499.75 -35.00 Feb 407.75 408.75 408.25 -34.50
MED 493.50 503.50 498.50 -35.50 Mar 368.75 369.75 369.25 -23.50
A. Gulf 495.00 505.00 500.00 -15.75 Apr 343.75 344.75 344.25 -21.50
500 500
450 450
400 400
350 350
M. Bel MED* AG H1 Mar H2 Mar H1 Apr Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Prices Terminal Fees Freight Propane Swaps
*Estimated level
1.10 400
1.00 350
0.90 300
0.80 250
8/2 25/1 31/1 3/2 8/2 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
wap Ratio MTD AVG LPG CFR JP/NAP Swap Ratio Mont-Belvieu Forward Prices
ap Ratio MTD AVG H2 Mar LPG/Nap Ratio
NWE Forwards
Mar 417.00
Apr 388.00 CFR Japan
NWE-MB Spread May 382.00 H1 Mar 489.00
Mar 47.75 H2 Mar 489.00
Apr 43.75 H1 Apr 459.00
Mont Belvieu
May 39.75 CP-NWE Spread H2 Apr 455.00
Feb 408.25
FOB AG Mar 55.00
Mar 369.25
Propane 470.00 Apr 54.00
Apr 344.25
Butane 570.00 May 39.00 CP Swaps
May 342.25
CFR JP-MB Spread Mar 472.00
Feb 48.75 Apr 442.00
Mar 58.75 Netbacks May 421.00
MED 438.00
shows.
OPIS estimates that it would translate into “I think most crackers are running at full tilt,”
about 36,000 mt of ethylene demand loss that said a Japanese end-user.
Challenging operations required due to the The rise in consumption of the gas resulted in a
prompt lifting schedule as well as the tight hike in LPG imports in the fourth quarter with
supply for the month were quoted as reasons the monthly average of 1.04 million mt, sharply
behind the spike in differentials.
higher compared to the year’s monthly average
of about 845,000 mt.
Far East players were thought to have a The price assessments for the 92, 95, and 97
bearish outlook on the arbitrage market due to RON gasoline closed at $66.19/bbl, $68.81/
the sharp uptick in Mont Belvieu prices, which bbl and $70.10/bbl respectively.
The optimistic view is that the Far East CFR Gasoline yield continued to decrease, seeing
prices would continue to soar, which would 26.3%, which is the lowest in almost two
open up the arbitrage window, but several years as refiners do not see a need to produce
sources polled by OPIS were skeptical over it excessive before the demand picks up.
currently.
GASOLINE
countries such as Singapore, Australia, China,
South Korea and Philippines.
arrive on Thursday.
CONDENSATE
Market players speculate that the gasoline • Additional supplies from Saudi may
cargo was procured to fill up the demand gap emerge in Q2
domestically due to the refinery turnaround.
In the similar extent, gasoline cracks to Dubai of condensate is currently sailing from Mellitah
also remain steady, with 92-RON crack to Daesan, which is expected to arrive on Feb
averaging at $11.71/bbl during the first week 22.
“Even if they offer some barrels of Khuff In addition, TonenGeneral Sekiyu K.K was also
condensate, it won’t be that cheap,” said a heard to have already raised operational rates
trade source.
of the fire-hit Wakayama refinery to “almost
full capacity,” said a company official.
REFINING NEWS which broke out on Jan 22, which started from
the lubricant oil processing facility.
since then.