Declaration of Kirk Schroeder in Support of Plaintiffs' Motion For Preliminary Injunction
Declaration of Kirk Schroeder in Support of Plaintiffs' Motion For Preliminary Injunction
Declaration of Kirk Schroeder in Support of Plaintiffs' Motion For Preliminary Injunction
v.
Defendants.
Intervenors.
I, Kirk Schroeder, declare as follows:
1. I have personal knowledge of the facts set forth below and if called as a witness I
2. I was asked by the Plaintiffs in this litigation to provide my expert opinion on the
impacts of the Willamette Project on threatened Upper Willamette River Chinook salmon and
steelhead. I was also asked to provide my expert opinion on the likely impacts of the interim
measures that are requested in the Plaintiffs’ Motion for Preliminary Injunction.
3. I received a Bachelor of Science (B.S.) from University of Idaho in 1975 and have
almost 40 years of experience conducting research and monitoring on salmon and steelhead,
including 36 years with the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (“ODFW”) conducting
as the Research Project Leader on the Willamette Spring Chinook Research Project from 2004 to
2013, and was an Assistant Project Leader from 1996–2004. I retired from ODFW as a Research
Project Leader in 2013 and continued to work part-time on advising the project and writing
research papers. My principal job responsibilities at ODFW included the development and
implementation of research on the life history and habitat use of spring Chinook in the
Willamette and Sandy basins to provide information for protecting and recovering populations,
analysis and writing of research results, coordination with ODFW management, presentation of
research results at agency, interagency, and professional meetings, coordination with state and
federal agencies, and collaboration with scientists from Oregon State University, University of
Oregon, and Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board. The research on Chinook salmon involved
carcasses, survey of rivers for juvenile salmon use, tagging of juvenile fish for migratory
behavior, and gathering of other information to assist in the conservation and management of
Chinook salmon.
4. I have worked with spring Chinook salmon on numerous rivers including Salmon
and Middle Fork Salmon rivers in Idaho and the Deschutes, Warm Springs, John Day,
McKenzie, North and South Santiam, Clackamas, and Sandy rivers in Oregon. My experience
includes extensive spawning ground surveys, design and implementation of research studies, and
numerous aspects including status and trends of natural populations, life history diversity and
of hatchery-wild fish in spawning populations, strategies to reduce hatchery strays, and hatchery
fish release strategies. I was involved in the design, implementation, and evaluation of
acclimation studies of winter steelhead in the Siuslaw River and studies on reducing stray
hatchery fish in coastal rivers. I also help design and direct studies of acclimation for spring
5. Our research project designed and implemented a broad set of research activities
starting in 1996 that included intensive spawning surveys, juvenile fish sampling in spawning
tributaries and in the mainstem Willamette River, a research study of the effects of catch-and-
release fishing in the lower Willamette River, and a marking program that enabled fish managers
to identify and manage wild and hatchery Chinook salmon (this included a hatchery-wide fin
clipping program and thermal marking of otoliths to differentiate unclipped hatchery fish from
wild fish in carcasses collected on spawning grounds). I have extensive knowledge of streams
1996 through 2013. Results of our surveys have been published in a series of annual reports and
in scientific papers. Our work was the basis for a comprehensive research paper on the diversity
of life histories in juvenile Chinook salmon that demonstrated how diversity provided stability
and resilience to smolt production in the Willamette Basin. We are currently working on a
research paper about life history diversity in adult Chinook that also shows how diversity makes
populations more stable. I have collaborated with university scientist to develop criteria and
identify winter habitat for juvenile Chinook salmon in the Willamette River and adjacent
history diversity and populations stability of spring Chinook salmon in the Willamette
River basin, Oregon. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 73:921–934.
history diversity to the stability of adult spring Chinook salmon populations in the
Lindsay, R.B., R.K. Schroeder, K.R. Kenaston, R. Toman, and M.A. Buckman. 2004.
Hooking mortality by anatomical location and its use in estimating mortality of spring
Chinook salmon caught and released in a river sport fishery. North American Journal of
Chinook salmon spawning surveys – 2012; compliance monitoring for Sandy Hatchery
Biological Opinion – September 2013. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Salem.
Schroeder, R.K., R.B. Lindsay, and K.R. Kenaston. 2001. Origin and straying of
Kenaston, K.R., R.B. Lindsay, and R.K. Schroeder. 2001. Effect of acclimation on the
homing and survival of hatchery winter steelhead. North American Journal of Fisheries
Management 21:765–773.
Schroeder, R.K., and J.D. Hall, editors. 2007. Redband trout: resilience and challenge in
Introduction).
Schroeder, R.K. 2007. Rainbow trout in the Deschutes and White rivers, Oregon. In
Schroeder, R.K., and C.A. Savonen. 1997. Lessons from floods. Fisheries 22(9):14-16.
6. Since retiring from ODFW, I have continued to work with the Willamette
research project to analyze and write research papers for professional journals, and have met
frequently with project personnel on various project activities within the Willamette and Sandy
basins.
Clackamas Science Review Team to assess effects of PGE dam operations on salmon and
steelhead populations, Chair of Natural Production Committee for the Oregon Chapter of the
for Western Division AFS, and on the Resolutions Committee for AFS at the national level.
8. I have received awards and recognition for my work including Oregon AFS
awards of Fishery Worker of the Year (1998), Award of Merit (1993), and Past-president (1996–
1997) and ODFW awards of Biologist of the Year (2011, Northwest Region) and Technical
Achievement Award (1997, Northwest Region). I have not testified as a witness in the last five
years.
9. Upper Willamette River (“UWR”) Chinook salmon and steelhead are the only
two native runs of salmon and steelhead within the UWR basin above Willamette Falls. These
species are listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (“ESA”) and have designated
critical habitat within the Willamette Basin. Chinook salmon native to the Willamette River
basin return from the ocean as adults in late winter and early spring (spring run), the only season
when passage was historically possible at Willamette Falls. Early run timing and isolation of the
populations upstream of the falls resulted in a genetically divergent group among Columbia
River Chinook salmon. Our research indicated a broad range of life histories in juvenile Chinook
salmon and two primary smolt life histories: those that migrate to the ocean in their first year of
life (subyearling) and those that migrate in their second year (yearling). The presence of two life
histories is somewhat unique among spring Chinook populations and was first documented in the
10. Willamette Falls historically restricted migration of adult spring Chinook into the
upper Willamette River basin to periods of high spring flows. Adult spring Chinook return to the
lower Willamette River beginning in February and as early as March in the Clackamas River.
late August and early September. Adult Chinook migrate to the upper portions of the larger
subbasins and “hold” in the deeper pools with cooler water temperatures through the summer. At
present, adult salmon must hold in the lower reaches of three subbasins—North and South
Santiam and Middle Fork Willamette—because access to these upper watersheds is blocked by
dams. The historic spawning period for UWR Chinook probably extended from July through
October, but at the present spawning generally begins in late August and continues into early
October, with peak spawning in September. Adult Chinook salmon deposit their eggs in the fall,
and low water temperatures in fall and winter insures that incubation is timed to allow fry to
emerge the following spring when there is sufficient food for survival and growth. Exact timing
of spawning varies with water temperature; fish in the upper watersheds with cold water spawn
earlier than fish in the lower areas of the watershed. Because Chinook spawn in the fall and their
offspring emerge from the gravel the following spring, spawning success is greatest where gravel
substrate is fairly stable and does not scour out or shift during high flows.
11. As with spring Chinook salmon, the run timing of UWR steelhead reflects the
influence of Willamette Falls as a barrier to migration except in winter and early spring when
flow was high enough to allow steelhead to pass the falls. Native UWR steelhead return from
the ocean as adults in January through April and migrate past Willamette Falls from mid
February to mid May with peak migration in late March-April. They spawn in March through
June, with peak spawning in late April and early May. Although UWR steelhead do spawn in
the mainstem areas of the tributaries, they also migrate farther upstream than spring Chinook and
are able to spawn in small and high gradient streams because winter and spring flows provide
access to these smaller streams. Juvenile steelhead rear in mainstem habitats and the upper
as smolts in April and May. Smolts are believed to migrate quickly downstream, and migrate
faster when river flows are higher. Most UWR steelhead spend two years in the ocean but may
spend 1-4 years before returning to freshwater. UWR steelhead appear to be more genetically
diverse than steelhead in the Lower Columbia River evolutionarily significant units (ESU)1, and
populations appear to be more distinct from each other than populations in the Lower Columbia.
12. Currently, less than 10,000 wild Chinook salmon return each year to the UWR
basin, which is a fraction of the several hundred thousands that historically returned each year.
In addition, only the Clackamas and McKenzie subbasins have significant numbers of naturally
produced fish. Seven independent populations of spring Chinook have been identified in the
UWR Chinook ESU: Clackamas, Molalla, North Santiam, South Santiam, Calapooia, McKenzie,
and the Middle Fork Willamette. Populations in the Clackamas, North Santiam, McKenzie and
Middle Fork Willamette subbasins were classified as “core populations” and the McKenzie was
considered to be at a very high risk of extinction except for the Clackamas (moderate) and the
McKenzie (low). About 70% of the Chinook salmon that return to UWR basin are hatchery fish.
abundance is unknown. However, over 10,000 late run winter steelhead––those returning after
populations of winter steelhead were identified in the UWR: Molalla, North Santiam, South
1
A group of populations that is substantially reproductively isolated from other populations, and represents an
important component in the evolutionary legacy of the biological species. Listed steelhead are classified as distinct
population segments (DPS), which must be discrete from other populations, and it must be significant to its taxon.
ESU and DPS are considered inclusive; i.e., an ESU constitutes a DPS.
major production areas and these populations were designated as “core” and “genetic legacy.”
As of 2015 the Calapooia population was considered to be at a moderate risk of extinction and
the other three were considered to be at a low risk of extinction, with a decrease in the trends for
all populations. Recent analyses of the effect of pinniped predation on an already low abundance
of winter steelhead suggested that the risk of extinction had increased for all populations,
especially with the very low returns to the UWR in 2017 (543) and 2018 (1,233). Hatcheries
produce out-of-basin summer steelhead for recreational fishing within the basin as mitigation for
the loss of winter steelhead due to the dams. These hatchery fish do not aid in the conservation
of the species.
14. The 2011 recovery plan included two recovery goals: 1) achieve delisting from
the federal ESA threatened and endangered species list, and 2) achieve ‘broad sense recovery’
defined by Oregon as having populations of naturally produced salmon and steelhead that
maintain self-sustaining populations while providing for significant ecological, cultural, and
economic benefits. The plan further adopted four biological attributes that contribute to the
viability of salmon and steelhead populations: abundance, productivity, spatial distribution, and
diversity. Viability is based on an assessment of biological or physical criteria that when met
would indicate the target population or group of populations is unlikely to go extinct. The
viability criteria consist of a measured parameter or metric and a value of the metric or threshold
above which the population would be considered viable. In general, the abundance and
productivity criteria have been considered as a single attribute because they are closely related;
that is, the abundance of salmon or steelhead in a population is a reflection of the growth rate or
productivity of that population (e.g., returning adults per spawner). A primary measure of
percentage of hatchery origin spawners, and age structure of the population. Spatial structure is
a measure of how populations are geographically arranged based on their ability to disperse and
the quality of habitats. Spatial structure can be assessed through measures such as number and
distribution of spawning areas and proportion of the historical range presently occupied.
Population diversity includes both the genetic makeup of the population and the life history
characteristics that provide a foundation for the resilience and persistence of populations in the
15. The Willamette Project negatively impacts UWR Chinook salmon and steelhead
in each of the four major tributaries. The operation and maintenance of the Corps’ dams on these
tributaries—Detroit and Big Cliff Dam on the North Santiam River, Foster and Green Peter
Dams on the South and Middle Santiam rivers, Cougar Dam on the South Fork of the McKenzie
River, and Lookout Point, Dexter, Fall Creek, and Hills Creek Dams in the Middle Fork
Willamette River sub-basin—has altered the habitat, flows, and water temperatures throughout
the Willamette Basin. In general, the dams were built primarily to control floods in the
Willamette Basin and as such they are operated to hold back the high flows of winter and spring
in reservoirs, to keep reservoirs high through the summer, and to empty reservoirs starting in the
early fall. Although some changes have been made to the operation of the dams, the overall
operational guidelines have had numerous negative impacts throughout the Willamette Basin that
has resulted in degradation of fish habitat and harm to UWR Chinook and steelhead.
16. General habitat and flow conditions: The Corps’ operation of the dams alters the
natural flow pattern to which spring Chinook salmon and winter steelhead have adapted over
that historically were important for providing cues for adult and juvenile migration, and
providing access to important winter habitat and refugia. Winter and spring floods that go over
the banks of the river are important for providing winter habitat for juvenile fish on floodplains
and in seasonally flooded side channels and for recharging groundwater that helps provide cool
water during summer. Dam operations also result in longer periods of flows that are at or near
the top of river banks (bankful flow) than what occurred historically and these flows result in
exposure to high velocities for juvenile fish rearing in mainstem habitats. Dams prevent the
downstream transport of large wood and sediment which are important for the formation of
complex habitats such as development of islands and side channels. The combination of reduced
peak flows, reduced wood and sediment, and construction of dikes along the mainstem rivers
have reduced long reaches of the lower tributaries and the Willamette to a single channel,
17. Dam operations that prioritize refilling reservoirs result in a reduction of flows in
the late spring and early summer, which can increase water temperature and reduce available
rearing areas for juvenile salmonids that in turn can decrease their growth and survival. For
example, a substantial component of juvenile spring Chinook rear through winter and spring in
the lower reaches of the tributaries and in the Willamette River and migrate to the Columbia
River during late spring and early summer of their first year of life. Dam operations have also
negatively affected the survival of adult salmon by increasing mortality because of stress caused
by high water temperatures and delayed upstream migration. Overall, operation of dams in the
Willamette Basin has negatively impacted the survival of adult and juvenile salmon because
18. Fish passage: The Corps’ dams block access to a significant portion of the historic
spawning and rearing habitat for both spring Chinook salmon and winter steelhead. More than
90% of historic spawning and rearing habitat for spring Chinook salmon has been blocked in the
Middle Fork Willamette sub-basin. Spring Chinook salmon lost about 70% of their spawning
and rearing habitat from dams in the North and South Santiam sub-basins, and winter steelhead
lost about one-third of their historic habitat. Cougar Dam on the South Fork McKenzie cuts off
about 25 miles of spawning habitat for UWR Chinook salmon that was considered to be the best
habitat in the McKenzie subbasin. The Corps’ dams do not have functional fish passage
facilities for adult or juvenile salmon or steelhead. Currently the only passage for adult Chinook
and steelhead is to trap the fish and haul them in trucks to release sites above the dams, which
allows a limited number to reach historic spawning areas. Any juvenile salmon and steelhead
produced by the transport of adult fish upstream of the dams face difficulties in migrating
downstream because of the lack of juvenile fish passage facilities and the operation of dams and
reservoirs. Our research in the McKenzie River indicated that juvenile fish may migrate
downstream in almost any month with distinct peaks in winter and early spring (fry), late winter
through early summer (yearling smolts), and fall into early winter (fall migrants). Presently any
fish migrating downstream in spring encounter reservoirs that are filling and are therefore unable
to continue downstream migration, which interferes with the natural timing of migration and
19. Trap and haul programs are a non-volitional passage solution that harms fish by
increasing stress from handling and transport which results in high mortality. Further, not all
reaches below the dams which exposes them to high water temperature resulting in high
mortality before spawning. For those that do spawn, their eggs are exposed to unnatural water
addition to blocking adult passage, any juvenile fish that are produced above the dams are
generally forced to pass downstream through the dams using routes such as turbines and deep
outlets. These passage routes harm fish because injuries and physiological stress sustained
during passage can result in instantaneous death or in delayed mortality that manifests itself as
the fish continues to migrate downstream or makes the transition to life in salt water.
20. Reservoirs: Juvenile fish that are progeny of adult fish transported upstream of
dams must pass through the reservoirs formed by the high head dams in order to migrate to the
ocean. Reservoirs harm juvenile salmonids because of long travel times through the reservoirs,
exposure to predation in the slow water, exposure to diseases and parasites, and poor water
quality in summer. Reservoirs and lack of passage at the dams also interfere with the natural
timing of growth and downstream migration. For example, research in the Willamette Basin has
shown that diversity of life histories adds stability and resilience to the population. One life
history type is represented by the long-distance downstream migration of newly hatched fry
salmon to the lower reaches of tributary rivers and the Willamette River where they rear through
late winter and early spring. Reservoirs and dam operations in the basin restrict the timing of
downstream migration, and thereby prevent juvenile salmon from completing this migratory life
history and other life histories. This results in a simplification of life history and a consequent
quality problems in the UWR basin. Because water released from the dams is drawn from
reservoirs, it has changed the natural temperatures of the river and has caused harm to fish. A
principal effect of increased water temperatures downstream of dams in fall and winter is either
direct mortality of eggs in redds or accelerated incubation of eggs such that fish emerge early
when food availability is low and high winter flows may wash fish out of the gravels before they
are ready. Because adult salmon are blocked by dams and must hold downstream (rather than in
the upper watershed), they are exposed to warm water temperatures that results in mortality
before they have a chance to spawn. In some areas, water releases from dams causes high levels
of dissolved gases in the water that can kill or injure fish, and may also damage eggs during
developmental stages.
22. Hatchery fish: In an attempt to mitigate for the loss of salmon and steelhead
caused by the Willamette Project, the Corps has funded hatchery programs in the basin.
However, the introduction of hatchery fish into the UWR basin harms wild fish through
competition for rearing habitat, interbreeding with wild fish with potential loss of productivity in
the wild fish, introduction of disease, high density of hatchery fish downstream of dams where
most of the hatcheries are located (which can increase transmission of disease or increase stress
in wild fish by crowding), and attraction of predators when large numbers of juvenile hatchery
23. North Santiam River: Lack of adult and juvenile fish passage at two dams harms
the populations because 70% of Chinook and about 1/3 of steelhead historic spawning,
incubation, and rearing habitat has been blocked. Pre-spawning mortality has been high
downstream of Big Cliff and Detroit dams because of high water temperatures in the lower
transported fish has been high in some years and adults have often spawned in just a few areas,
resulting in multiple redds superimposed on each other. Lack of passage facilities for getting
juvenile fish downstream past two closely proximate dams has further reduced the success of
passing adults upstream for purposes of conserving or restoring wild populations. In areas
downstream of dams, operation of the dams has altered flows and water temperature which
harms fish that spawn and rear in those areas. Spill at the dams in an attempt to pass juvenile fish
also results in high levels of dissolved gas in the water, which affects juvenile fish attempting to
pass downstream, as well as juvenile and adult fish downstream of dams. Dam operations in the
North Santiam have altered historic streamflow patterns downstream of the dams, including
higher flow in fall and lower flow in late winter and spring. These changes in flow can affect
24. Operation of Detroit Dam has resulted in water temperatures that reach an annual
maximum in fall and can exceed the water temperature criterion. High levels of pre-spawning
mortality in Chinook salmon have been observed in the North Santiam River (average = 40%; as
high as 75%). Adult fish passage at upper Bennett Dam in the lower North Santiam River has
improved with reconstruction of the fish ladder and the average pre-spawning mortality has been
lower (28% in 2012–2018), but mortality has still been as high as 58% (2018) and 63% (2015) in
the areas upstream of upper Bennett Dam. For those fish that survive to spawn, flow has been
ramped up or down during spawning season, which causes fish to spawn in areas that may be
dewatered or that may later be too deep for successful incubation of eggs. Flows are often
unnaturally ramped up in early to mid October to empty Detroit Reservoir because it is held at
high levels to accommodate recreation and must then be lowered in time for flood control.
which provide oxygen to developing eggs. In addition, because surface water in the reservoir is
warm at the end of summer, the water being released from the reservoir is unnaturally warm, and
this results in accelerated development of eggs and premature hatching and emergence of fry.
Early emergence of fry in early winter reduces their survival because of high flow and associated
25. South Santiam River: Corps dams blocked passage to 70% of historic habitat for
Chinook and about 1/3 for steelhead, particularly the Middle Santiam River, which was blocked
by Green Peter Dam and historically contained some of the most important spawning and rearing
habitat for salmon and steelhead in the subbasin. Pre-spawning mortality of Chinook has been
high downstream of Foster Dam because of high water temperatures and high density of adult
salmon immediately downstream of the dam (average of 22%, as high as 72%). Although an
adult fish trap at Foster Dam has been recently renovated, there have been problems with
attracting adults into the trap, therefore the numbers of fish available for transport have been
small in recent years. Spawning in the South Santiam River upstream of Foster Reservoir is
limited because much of the river is high gradient with long reaches of bedrock with little
spawning gravel. High flows during winter can result in the erosion of redds because gravel
patches are often shallow and lie on top of bedrock. Spawning and incubation success of fish
transported upstream of Foster Reservoir has varied because of high mortality of transported fish,
scouring of redds and poor incubation success. A fish weir designed to improve downstream fish
passage at Foster Dam has been recently installed, but it is unclear if the weir will substantially
rearing areas in the South Fork McKenzie River. Although an adult fish trap was constructed at
the base of Cougar Dam to facilitate the passage of adult fish upstream of the dam, numerous
problems have arisen including the mortality of fish in the trap and the mortality of transported
adult fish. In addition, genetic studies of adult salmon caught in the trap indicated early migrants
were often progeny of fish that had spawned downstream of the dam. Because of these results
only adult salmon trapped in the latter part of the run are allowed to be transported upstream, but
this also increases handling of fish in the early part of the run that must be trucked downstream
27. Construction of a tower to control the water temperature downstream of the dam
was completed in 2005 and has helped to return water temperatures to a more normal seasonal
distribution. However, based on the average daily mean temperature (2005–2017 water years;
Oct 1–Sep 30)_the water temperature downstream of the dam was about 3–7 degrees F higher in
mid-April through mid-October than that upstream of the reservoir. Although downstream
warming would occur naturally, USGS estimated a maximum natural warming of about 1 degree
F for the 6-mile length from the upstream gauging site to the dam. Water temperatures below the
dam remain higher than that upstream of the reservoir through mid January during the early
incubation period. The number of salmon carcasses recovered downstream of Cougar Dam has
often been too small to accurately estimate pre-spawning mortality. However, a comparison of
mortality upstream and downstream of the South Fork McKenzie indicates that mortality is
generally lower upstream of the confluence (3.5% vs. 7.7% in 2002–2018). Mortality has
decreased both upstream and downstream of the South Fork since the completion of the
temperature control tower (9.3% to 2% upstream and 16.8% to 5.4% downstream), although
which allowed adult salmon to more quickly migrate upstream. The temperature control tower
did not include provisions for passing juvenile fish downstream, therefore the passage of any
juvenile fish is through passage routes such as turbines or deep regulating outlets which causes
fish to dive to depths that are unnatural in order to find an outlet and results in direct and delayed
28. Because the McKenzie River is the only subbasin upstream of Willamette Falls
that still has access to historic spawning and rearing habitat in the upper watershed, it can serve
as a template for the rearing and migratory behavior of fish under historic conditions. Research
on Chinook salmon in the McKenzie has revealed a wide diversity of rearing and migratory
behaviors including long-distance migration of newly emerged fry to the lower McKenzie River
and the mainstem Willamette River in winter through early spring, migration of juvenile fish in
fall and winter, and migration of yearling smolts in the spring of their second year of life.
Because of dam operations, any juvenile fish produced by adult fish transported upstream of
Cougar Dam are trapped in the reservoir and not allowed to carry out their inherent life history
behaviors. Rearing in the unnatural environment of the reservoir exposes juvenile fish to
predation as well as disease and parasites which may result in direct mortality and delayed
mortality after passage and migration to the ocean because of the weakened health of the fish. In
addition, the juvenile fish attain an unnaturally large size because of high growth rates with
unknown effects on survival through passage routes. In addition, large size smolts have been
shown to result in adults returning at a younger age and smaller size which affects productivity
Chinook salmon has been blocked by dams in the Middle Fork Willamette subbasin. Pre-
spawning mortality has been particularly high in the Middle Fork Willamette River downstream
of Dexter and Lookout dams, with almost 100% of fish dying before spawning in some years
(average = 80%). Any redds produced downstream of the dams are subjected to high water
temperatures which results in high mortality of eggs. Surveys have indicated little natural
production in reaches downstream of the dams. As with the other subbasins, adult salmon
trapped and hauled upstream have had high mortality rates and passage of juvenile fish has
shown limited success. Any juvenile fish produced upstream of dams are subjected to predation
and disease in reservoirs, and must pass downstream through the dams resulting in high
mortality. Fall Creek reservoir has been drawn down since fall of 2011 to facilitate passage of
juvenile salmon and results suggest a slight improvement in returns. The average return of wild
adult salmon to Fall Creek Dam was 351 in 2014–2017 compared to 277 in 2002–2013 (the fall
2011 drawdown would have affected juveniles from the 2010 brood year and 2014 would have
been returns of the age 4 adults). Estimates of wild fish in the Middle Fork Willamette subbasin
indicate that over 70% are found in Fall Creek, although the total number of wild adults in the
subbasin remains less than 500, well below levels that would lower the risk of extinction for this
population. Adult salmon are transported upstream of dams but mortality has been high because
of injuries and stress associated with trapping and transport in trucks, including in Fall Creek.
30. The ongoing operation and maintenance of the dams and reservoirs continues to
disrupt the life history of UWR Chinook salmon and winter steelhead. Despite some recent
incubation of eggs and emergence of fry, lack of access to historic spawning and rearing habitat,
flows in mainstem habitats that are held at bankful levels and not allowed to go over the banks
can disrupt rearing and growth of juvenile fish because they are exposed to high water velocities
and cannot access areas of refugia such as floodplains. Plans to identify and remove non-
essential levies and other structures that armor river banks have not been implemented resulting
in loss of habitat complexity and important rearing habitat for juvenile fish.
31. All of the attributes considered as critical for long-term viability of the salmon
and steelhead populations continue to be affected by operations of the dams. Effects include:
abundance levels well below recovery levels; lack of spatial structure because of blocked access
to historic habitats and loss of downstream passage for juvenile fish to disperse and migrate
naturally; loss of genetic diversity because of low abundance of adults and presence of hatchery
fish; and disruption to rearing and migratory life histories. Our research has shown that life
history diversity at both the adult and juvenile stages provides stability and resilience to
populations. Under projected effects of climate change in the Willamette Basin, protection of
life history diversity will likely be critical for maintaining spring Chinook and winter steelhead
populations. Under current conditions and operations of the dams, populations have continued to
32. In recent years, the abundance of salmon and steelhead in the Clackamas and
Sandy basins has increased likely because of improvements to upstream and downstream passage
through alterations at dams (Clackamas) or removal of dams (Sandy). In contrast, the lack of
substantial improvement in the UWR populations suggests ongoing operations of dams has
UWR Chinook salmon and steelhead were highly imperiled. Numbers of wild spring Chinook
have been available since 2002 when all returning hatchery fish could be identified with an
adipose fin clip and unclipped hatchery fish could be further estimated from the presence of an
induced thermal mark in the otoliths of carcasses recovered on spawning grounds. Since the
Biological Opinion was issued, the species has continued to decline. Estimated numbers of wild
spring Chinook at Willamette Falls have declined from 13,228 (2002–2007) to 7,639 (2008–
2018), a decline of 42%. In addition, peaks in abundance have declined. A recent peak in
abundance in 2015 was about 8,800, which was lower than previous peaks of about 12,000 in
2011 and about 17,600 in 2003. From the 2015 peak of 8,800 the population has steadily
34. In contrast, the number of wild Chinook salmon in the Clackamas and Sandy
basins has increased in recent years from about 1,430 (2008–2014) to about 2,940 in the
Clackamas and 3,540 in the Sandy (2015–2018). Improvements have been made for passage at
the dams in the Clackamas by Portland General Electric, especially providing passage for
juvenile salmon and steelhead past the dams. Marmot Dam in the Sandy River was removed and
combination of redd surveys, dam counts, and recovery of carcasses to estimate pre-spawning
mortality and the wild:hatchery mix in the population. These estimates provide a good index of
trends in abundance through 2017 (data on wild populations are not available for 2018). The
core population of wild spring Chinook in the McKenzie River has declined by over 50% from
2002–2007 to 2008–2017, to a mean of less than 1,600 adults. Peaks in abundance of wild adults
1,790 in 2015. Although populations of wild fish in the other subbasins have generally increased
from 2002–2007 to 2008–2017, these numbers may include first generation progeny of hatchery
fish that spawn in the rivers. In addition, mean abundance remains below 1,000 fish in the North
and South Santiam and below 500 fish in the Middle Fork Willamette subbasin, with 75% of
these occurring in Fall Creek (2008–2017 mean). Of particular concern is the recent steady
decline of wild adult Chinook in the South Santiam from 1,530 in 2013 to 245 in 2017.
36. Winter steelhead are enumerated at Willamette Falls and those that pass after
February 15 (late run) are considered native to the basin and not progeny of naturalized winter
steelhead from hatchery programs that have been discontinued. The 2008–2018 average run was
about 3,200 compared to the 1975-2007 average run of about 7,600 (-58%). The average run in
2017–2018 was just 888 compared to about 3,700 in 2008–2016 (-76%). The peaks in
abundance have also decreased over time from over 15,000 in 1970s and 1980s to about 11,000
in 2001 and 2002 to less than 5,000 after 2010. Estimates by subbasin have been estimated by
partitioning the Willamette Falls count based on dam counts, redd counts, and redd densities in
the subbasins. Although there is much uncertainty in these data, they provide a general index of
trends. In the North Santiam the 1985-2007 average was 1,263 compared to 790 in 2008–2016
(-38%). Estimated abundance in the South Santiam decreased from 1,847 in 1985–2007 to 821 in
2008–2016 (-56%). The Molalla population decreased from 1,801 in 1985–2007 to 1,313 in
2008–2016 (-27%) and the Calapooia decreased from 412 to 360 (-43%) during the same
periods.
37. In contrast to the population declines in the upper Willamette Basin, the
populations of winter steelhead in the Clackamas and Sandy basins have increased in recent
from an average of about 1,000 in 2003-2007 to about 1,300 in 2008-2018. Including estimates
of abundance from redd counts downstream of the dams on the Clackamas, the total abundance
for the Clackamas increased from an average of about 1,500 (2006-2007, the only years with full
redd counts) to over 3,100 in 2008-2018. Total population size has averaged over 3,300 in
recent years (2015-2018). Similarly in the Sandy Basin, the estimated abundance of winter
steelhead increased from 1,100 in 2006-2007 to over 3,000 in 2008-2018. In recent years, the
38. During the last several years, studies have documented several ongoing or new
threats to UWR Chinook salmon and steelhead. A radio-tracking study of Chinook salmon
indicated a loss of adult fish between Willamette Falls and the spawning tributaries that probably
reflects pre-spawning mortality as adult fish migrate upstream rather than fish entering other
tributaries (e.g., westside streams) or spawning in the Willamette River or the lowest reaches of
the eastside tributaries. High levels of total dissolved gases have been documented in recent
studies in the North Santiam River downstream of Detroit and Big Cliff dams, and may
negatively affect wild adults passed upstream of Minto Dam as well as incubating eggs and
juvenile fish. Predation by sea lions has increased in recent years, especially on winter steelhead.
Effects of predation are more pronounced when runs are low, thus the mortality rate is higher on
39. Recent analyses suggest the projected effects of climate change will result in
lower snowpack, possible shifts in rainfall patterns and intensity, and higher summer air
temperatures. These effects would lead to reduced winter water storage, lower minimum flows,
and higher maximum water temperatures. Conditions downstream of dams would degrade
indicated that returns of progeny from adults transported upstream of the dam were well below
replacement levels (0.31 and 0.41). Tagging studies of juvenile salmon suggested poor survival
through Cougar Reservoir and Dam. Studies in the Middle Fork Willamette subbasin indicated
40. A research study of wild Chinook salmon in the Willamette Basin documented
that life history diversity found in both juveniles and adults provided stability to the populations
through time. Diversity allowed fish to respond to changing conditions such that certain life
histories performed better in some years than other life histories, which served to buffer the
population as a whole. These results indicated the importance of diversity and suggests that loss
of diversity caused by lack of access to historic habitats and lack of downstream passage could
41. In my professional opinion, the Corps’ ongoing operation and maintenance of its
dams have contributed to the continual decline of spring Chinook salmon and winter steelhead
and has prevented their recovery. Viability criteria for salmon and steelhead recovery are a
historic spawning and rearing areas in the North and South Santiam and the Middle Fork
Willamette subbasins, it is highly doubtful that delisting recovery will be achieved for the
species, much less broad sense recovery. This is particularly the case under probable future
effects of climate change which will make the areas downstream of dams less hospitable for
42. In my professional opinion, progress toward recovering these species will not be
possible as long as adult salmon and steelhead are restricted to a fraction of their historic range
allow fish to express their full range of life histories to meet both the spatial structuring and
diversity criteria for viability. Our research and others have shown the diversity of life histories
in both juvenile and adult fish is important for providing stability and resilience to populations.
For juvenile salmon and steelhead, passage should be provided at different times of the year
depending on the migratory behavior exhibited by progeny of adult fish transported upstream of
dams. In the upper reaches of the McKenzie subbasin where adult salmon can access historic
spawning areas, the primary periods of migration are winter to early spring for newly emerged
fry migrating to mainstem habitats, October through December for fall migrants, and March
43. Although other factors have contributed to the decline of the species through time,
such as fishing and water pollution in the Willamette River, measures have been taken to reduce
their effects. In addition, several measures have been taken in the Willamette Basin to reduce the
number or impact of hatchery fish, such as eliminating some hatchery programs (winter
steelhead, fall release of some hatchery Chinook), reducing the numbers released, targeting
releases in areas away from spawning tributaries within the basin or farther downstream in the
Columbia River. Improvements have been made to several fish ladders at small dams in the
44. In contrast, primary effects of dams and dam operations such as blocked access to
historic habitat and changes in temperature and flows downstream of dams have largely
continued without substantial change for decades. Other factors have contributed to the decline
of the species including climate change and associated effects on freshwater and ocean
environments. However, the effect of these factors is exacerbated because dams and dam
blocking access to upper watersheds where environments are more favorable and by increasing
the effects downstream of dams. Recently, predation by sea lions at Willamette Falls has
affected populations, especially winter steelhead. However, the effects of predation are more
pronounced when populations have already been reduced than if the populations were at
recovery levels. In my professional opinion, the dams are the primary reason that the species
were listed as threatened under the ESA and recovery will not be possible without major
45. The current trajectory of changes proposed for dams and dam operations are
inadequate in the face of the declining trends in populations of salmon and steelhead. Plans for
providing successful juvenile and adult fish passage at dams in the upper Willamette basin (e.g.,
Cougar, Detroit, Lookout Point) are years away from finalization, much less implementation.
Therefore, in my professional opinion, I believe interim measures are needed to enable progress
opinion, these measures are necessary for preventing further decline of the salmon and steelhead
populations and for moving populations toward recovery criteria. Therefore, the operation of
dams in the upper Willamette Basin should be prioritized to meet objectives for fish recovery
over that of other uses. These would include flow and temperature targets, total dissolved gas,
47. More natural flow conditions are needed to support all life cycles—egg
incubation, juvenile rearing and migration, and adult migration, holding, and spawning. Deep
(fry and yearling smolts), and during fall and early winter (fall migrants). Ultimately, some
dams may need to be operated as run-of-river to provide passage for adult and juvenile salmon
and steelhead, with provisions for continuation of flood control. Successful passage of juvenile
salmon and steelhead at the dams may require turning off turbines at dams such as Lookout
Point, Dexter, Detroit, Big Cliff, Green Peter, Foster, and Cougar. Long term recovery plans
should consider the alternative of removing dams to improve passage of adult and juvenile
48. In addition to improving passage at the dams, the dam operations should set a
priority on providing adequate water quality for adult and juvenile salmon and steelhead
downstream of the dams. Water temperature is an important factor that affects the survival of
adult salmon, influences the timing of incubation of eggs and emergence of fry, and the growth
and survival of juvenile fish. Measures to more closely match water temperatures upstream and
the species while the agencies complete a new ESA consultation. However, a long-term strategy
should include measures that prioritize the recovery of the species in the basin. For example, to
recover Chinook salmon in the Middle Fork Willamette, the Corps may need to operate Lookout
Point dam as run-of-the-river except when needed for flood control, and to remove Dexter Dam.
50. Lookout Point Actions: I have reviewed the proposal to draw down the Lookout
Point reservoir to 750 feet for one month in the fall. At this reservoir elevation, the regulating
outlets will be located 14 feet from the top of the reservoir, which will make them more
accessible for juvenile salmonids. In my professional opinion, this deep drawdown will improve
provide a more natural riverine environment for juvenile fish to migrate, allow fish to more
easily sound and pass through the dam, and would likely reduce effects of predation by reducing
the abundance of predators either through flushing them downstream or interrupting their
reproductive cycles.
51. I have reviewed the proposal to conduct free, ungated spill at Lookout Point
during the spring. In my professional opinion, this operation will provide an opportunity to test
effectiveness for juvenile salmon passage in spring and fall. Further delays in conducting tests
will jeopardize progress toward recovering salmon in the Middle Fork Willamette subbasin
where the largest impediment to recovery remains a lack of access to historic spawning and
rearing habitat upstream of Lookout Point and Hills Creek dams. Results of the effectiveness of
downstream passage will inform decisions about long-term passage strategies. Should studies
show that passage through spill is not feasible, an alternative may be to operate Lookout Point as
52. I have reviewed the proposal to use the lower regulating outlets of Lookout Point
dam to perform temperature control operations during the fall. This will release colder water,
which should lower river temperatures from their abnormally high temperatures in the fall.
Benefits to fish would likely include higher survival of eggs in redds that are made in fall, and
depending on the duration and temperatures achieved, could also slow the incubation time of
53. Fall Creek Spring Drawdown: I have reviewed the proposal to drawdown Fall
Creek reservoir in the spring to 685 feet and to hold that reservoir elevation until June. In my
migrate in the spring. An entrainment study indicated that peak migration occurred in late May
and June but the only passage route was through the fish horns that are known to be ineffective
in safely passing fish and result in low survival. A deep drawdown would allow fish to pass
through the regulating outlet, which has been shown to successfully pass juvenile fish in the fall.
Extending the drawdown into spring would provide a passage option for juvenile salmon that
matches their natural migration timing. An additional benefit would be a more natural growth
pattern than what is currently observed when juvenile fish are trapped in the reservoir. Although
high growth rates in the reservoir result in juvenile salmon attaining a large size, survival
benefits are unknown and large smolts are known to result in adult fish returning at a younger
age and smaller size, thus affecting fecundity (fewer eggs in females) and productivity of the
population. Since the fall drawdown was initiated, the average return of wild adult salmon to
Fall Creek Dam has increased modestly from 277 to 351. Because recovery of Chinook salmon
will depend on large improvements in passage at the dams, it is imperative that studies are
conducted immediately in order to develop long-term alternatives for adult and juvenile passage.
Operating Fall Creek as run-of-river may be necessary to ensure successful juvenile salmon
passage.
54. Green Peter Chinook Salmon Outplanting: I have reviewed the proposal for the
Corps to begin outplanting adult Chinook salmon above Green Peter dam to comply with the
RPA. In my professional opinion, this operation will provide a needed opportunity to evaluate
and identify juvenile and adult fish passage options, and will initiate the development of
effective reintroduction strategies. The Middle Fork Santiam River, which joins the South
Santiam River at the current site of Foster Reservoir, was considered the top producer of
Providing passage to this historic spawning and rearing habitat may be the only feasible option
55. Cougar Actions: I have reviewed the proposal to drawdown Cougar reservoir to
1,505 feet by November 15 and holding this level for four weeks to allow passage of juvenile
salmon through the regulating outlet. As with the other Willamette projects, safe and effective
passage for adult and juvenile Chinook salmon is needed for recovery of the species in the
McKenzie subbasin. A drawdown and priority of the regulating outlet as the passage route (vs. a
turbine route) would provide an opportunity to evaluate this option for safe and effective
passage. In my professional opinion, a volitional passage route for juvenile salmon should be a
high priority and would likely be more effective and safe than attempting to trap juveniles in the
reservoir, handle them, and transport them around the reservoir for release downstream of the
dam.
56. I have reviewed the proposal to delay refill at Cougar Reservoir in the spring.
This measure would provide an opportunity to evaluate passage for fry and juvenile salmon.
Likely benefits would include providing passage for natural downstream migration timing of
juvenile salmon. Studies indicated a large number of fry produced by outplanted adults migrated
downstream in late winter to early spring but were then trapped in the reservoir, exposing them
to various sources of mortality and parasite infestations. Based on research in the McKenzie
River, many of these fry would likely continue migrating to the McKenzie and Willamette rivers
to rear. Other life histories may rear through summer in the South Fork McKenzie downstream
of the dam and in the McKenzie River and migrate in the fall or following spring. A delayed
refill of the reservoir until late May or into June and priority of regulating outlet passage would
passage option than other alternatives such as trapping and hauling juvenile fish downstream.
57. Detroit Dam Actions: I have reviewed the proposal to drawdown Detroit
reservoir to 1,370 feet by November 15 and to hold at that reservoir elevation until December 15.
This action should benefit fish by providing a passage route through regulating outlets that could
be reached more easily because juvenile fish would not have to sound as deep to locate the
outlet. Based on work in the McKenzie River, most migration in fall and early winter for
Chinook salmon occurs before mid December. Evaluation of the effectiveness and survival of
juvenile fish passing downstream would inform the development of long-term passage options.
58. I have reviewed the proposal to operate the lower regulating outlets of Detroit
Dam to provide temperature control during the fall. In my professional opinion, this operation
would lower the water temperature during early incubation. Operations in 2015 indicate that the
lower regulating outlet could be used to access cooler water and in that year this measure
provided lower water temperatures downstream, albeit still above target maximum temperatures.
Although the temperatures in 2015 were still above targets by about two degrees, the use of the
lower regulating outlet nevertheless prevented downstream temperatures from being closer to 60
degrees F, which would have greatly accelerated egg development during the early part of the
incubation period. Aggressive interim measures are needed to reduce harm to depressed salmon
Conclusions
59. Corps dams have blocked passage to historic spawning areas in the North and
South Santiam, McKenzie, and Middle Fork Willamette subbasins, resulting in a loss of about
20–90% of historic habitats. To date, efforts to reintroduce adult salmon and steelhead have had
transported upstream of dams, mortality has often been high and lack of passage for juvenile fish
means that reintroduction efforts have had little effect in mitigating the loss of habitat from dams
and reservoirs. Research has indicated juvenile fish may migrate downstream in almost any
month of the year with distinct peaks in winter and early spring for fry, fall through early winter
for fall migrants, and late winter through early summer for yearling smolts. Reservoirs and lack
of passage at dams interferes with the natural migratory behaviors of juvenile fish, resulting in a
loss of life history diversity which has been shown to provide stability to populations.
60. Operation of Corps dams in the upper Willamette Basin that would benefit fish
have often been a lower priority than other uses (e.g., recreation, power generation), even when
flood control can be achieved. As a result, salmon and steelhead have been negatively affected
by unnatural flows, water temperatures, and total dissolved gases. Unnatural flow and
temperature conditions downstream of dams has resulted in environmental conditions that can
lead to high pre-spawning mortality of adults and premature development of eggs and emergence
of fry. Altered flows and temperatures can affect the growth of juvenile fish and interfere with
cues for migration. Controlled flows in the winter have reduced access to refuge habitat in
floodplains for juvenile fish and exposed them to high water velocities during extended periods
when flows are unnaturally kept at bankful levels. The presence of unneeded dikes and armored
banks results in loss of habitat complexity for rearing and exacerbates the effects of controlled
winter floods by preventing access to floodplains and other habitats off the main channel of the
rivers.
61. The abundance of salmon and steelhead in the UWR basin is at a historic low, and
most populations are showing a downward trend with numbers that are below replacement
progeny of hatchery fish spawning in the rivers, the status of wild salmon may be even more
precarious than is currently known. Estimated numbers of wild spring Chinook at Willamette
Falls has declined 42% from 2002–2007 to 2008–2018, with a recent steady decline from 8,800
in 2015 to about 4,800 in 2018. The “genetic legacy” and core population in the McKenzie
subbasin has declined by over 50% from 2002–2007 to 2008–2017 to an average abundance of
less than 1,600 wild adults. The late run of winter steelhead at Willamette Falls has decreased by
58% from 1975–2007 to 2008–2018 with a further decline in the last two years of 76% to an
62. In contrast, the abundance of salmon and steelhead has increased in recent years
in the Clackamas and Sandy basins where adult and juvenile passage has improved because of
alterations at dams (Clackamas) or removal of dams (Sandy). The precarious status of the UWR
salmon and steelhead populations indicate the need for substantial changes to operations and
63. In my professional opinion, the proposed interim measures are needed to prevent
further decline of UWR salmon and steelhead. Operations of the dams should be prioritized to
meet objectives to benefit fish including flow and temperature targets, total dissolved gas, and
providing juvenile and adult fish passage. As such, the proposed interim measures would help
prevent further harm to the species and should help populations by improving passage conditions
and water quality. The proposed drawdowns would result in conditions that should improve
downstream passage for juvenile salmon at Fall Creek, Lookout Point, Cougar, and Detroit
dams. Outplanting spring Chinook above Green Peter Dam would allow agencies to evaluate
and identify juvenile and adult fish passage alternatives, and begin development of a long-term