Practitioner's Guide To Cost of Capital & WACC Calculation: EY Switzerland Valuation Best Practice
Practitioner's Guide To Cost of Capital & WACC Calculation: EY Switzerland Valuation Best Practice
Practitioner's Guide To Cost of Capital & WACC Calculation: EY Switzerland Valuation Best Practice
February 2018
February 2018
Practitioner’s guide to cost of capital & WACC calculation: EY Switzerland valuation best practice | Page 2 of 23
February 2018
Valuation
Hannes Schobinger, CFA
► Transaction / business valuations ► Start-up / venture valuations
Executive Director ► Fairness / second opinions ► Purchase Price Allocations IFRS 3 / ASC 805
+41 58 286 4291 ► Tax valuations ► Impairment Testing IAS 36 / ASC 350
[email protected] ► Arbitration / litigation valuations ► Share based payement valuations IFRS 2 / ASC 718
Zurich
Analytics
A team of 25 VBM professionals
in Zurich and Geneva ► Descriptive / Diagnostic / Predictive / ► Commercial analytics (e.g. pricing, promotion,
Prescriptive products lunch, inventory)
► Deals analytics ► Network optimization
Genf ► Workforce analytics ► R&D
► Operational efficiency optimization
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1
Introduction to cost of capital
February 2018
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February 2018
Cost of capital and risk Items covered in cost of capital Cost of equity Cost of debt
► Risk can either be accounted for in the cash ► Unsystematic risks are often Company specific risks /
flows or in the discount rate reflected in the discount rate hurdle rate approach
► Consistency is key: only consider risks in cost
of capital that are not reflected in cash flows
and the other way round Company specific risks /
Lack of marketability
hurdle rate approach
Size premium
► Political risks
► Governmental risks (supply, Country risk Country risk
demand, price risks etc.)
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February 2018
► The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) ► We apply the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) incl. a size premium to determine the cost of equity
is determined by the cost of equity and debt,
► We determine the cost of debt by adding a credit spread according to a corporate bond reference index
weighted by the market value of their share in
with adequate geographic focus and a respective rating to the base rate
total capital:
► We determine the target capital structure based on the median capital structure of a meaningful peer
E D group of at least five listed companies (incl. the target company, if listed), based on market values
WACC = c e ´ + c d ´ (1- t) ´
D+E D+E
Illustrative example for earth moving equipment (small company, CHF based)
Base rate / "risk free" rate 0.22% a Implied yield on 10-year government bond of Switzerland in local currency, 5 years historic average (Capital IQ)
► Ce = Cost of equity
Market risk premium 6.00% b Global market risk premium (market studies)
► Cd = Cost of debt
Adjusted unlevered beta 0.847x c Derived from peer group median value (Capital IQ), adjustment according to Blume
► D = Market value of debt Adjusted relevered beta 1.038x d According to Practitioners' Method: Beta (relevered) = beta (unlevered) * (1 + D/E)
► E = Market value of equity Size premium 3.67% e Size premium for Micro-cap (Duff & Phelps, Valuation Handbook 2017)
Credit spread 1.10% i Credit Spread from Barclays Europe Aggregate Index - BBB
Equity ratio 81.61% l Capital structure derived from peer group median value (Capital IQ)
Debt ratio 18.39% m Capital structure derived from peer group median value (Capital IQ)
Corporate income tax rate 20.00% n Corporate income tax rate (EY Worldwide Corporate Tax Guide)
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2
Cost of equity
February 2018
► Application of the capital asset pricing model ► We apply the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to determine the cost of equity
(CAPM) to determine the cost of equity:
► We extend the basic CAPM formula with the size premium, if advisable
ce = rf + β ´ MRP
Weighted average cost of capital Comments (source)
Base rate / "risk free" rate 0.22% a Implied yield on 10-year government bond of Switzerland in local currency, 5 years historic average (Capital IQ)
Where
Market risk premium 6.00% b Global market risk premium (market studies)
► ce = Cost of equity
Adjusted unlevered beta 0.847x c Derived from peer group median value (Capital IQ), adjustment according to Blume
► rf = Risk free rate Adjusted relevered beta 1.038x d According to Practitioners' Method: Beta (relevered) = beta (unlevered) * (1 + D/E)
c β= rf + β ´=MRP
►e Beta (correlation measure of Size premium 3.67% e Size premium for Micro-cap (Duff & Phelps, Valuation Handbook 2017)
► MRP = Market risk premium (expected Base rate / "risk free" rate 0.22% h Implied yield on 10-year government bond of Switzerland in local currency, 5 years historic average (Capital IQ)
market return less risk free rate) Credit spread 1.10% i Credit Spread from Barclays Europe Aggregate Index - BBB
Equity ratio 81.61% l Capital structure derived from peer group median value (Capital IQ)
Debt ratio 18.39% m Capital structure derived from peer group median value (Capital IQ)
Corporate income tax rate 20.00% n Corporate income tax rate (EY Worldwide Corporate Tax Guide)
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February 2018
► In theory, the risk free rate represents the ► 10-year generic government bond in local currency from Capital IQ / Bloomberg / Reuters /
return an investor expects from an “absolutely” www.investing.com etc.
risk free investment over a specified period of
time (i.e. the time value of money) ► Choice of the 10-year bond due to consistent availability for most countries / currencies and market
liquidity, even though for USA and Switzerland also 20 or 30 year generic government bonds exist
► In reality, there is no “real” risk free asset and
hence no “pure” risk free rate exists. ► Use of the monthly 5-year historical average of yields of respective government bond to smoothen
Therefore, we often refer to the “base rate” as historical volatility and the currently extremely low interest rate environment
some other items are covered in the rate we ► Alternative approach: If no local government bond is available use CHF/USD/EUR bond + inflation
use as the base rate, i.e. time value of money, differential for a given currency
inflation (consistent with cash flows), certain
real growth (of economy) and country risk (as
Implied yield to maturity on a 10-year government bond in local currency
reflected in the counterparty risk)
3.5% High; 3.0%
3.0%
2.5% High; 2.2%
2.0% Low; 1.5%
High; 1.3%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
Low; -0.2%
0.0%
-0.5%
Low; -0.6%
-1.0%
31.12.2012 30.06.2013 31.12.2013 30.06.2014 31.12.2014 30.06.2015 31.12.2015 30.06.2016 31.12.2016 30.06.2017 31.12.2017
CHF risk free 10y EUR risk free 10y USD risk free 10y
Source: Capital IQ
Valuation date: 31 December 2017
Assumption, that country risk is generally reflected in local government bond rate; however, in case of
excessive counter party risk (e.g. for Greece / Italy / Argentina / Spain during debt crisis) the local
government bond rate might overestimate the country risk and a separate assessment is necessary.
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February 2018
► The MRP is the extra return that is required by ► EY Switzerland assumes a “historical“ MRP of 6% along with the use of a 5-year historical average of
investors for shifting their money from a risk the respective risk free rate
free investment to a diversified equity portfolio ► The MRP is based on own research on the Swiss stock market but also considers international
► The unsystematic risk of a single investment is developments and consensus estimates
eliminated
► The MRP can be derived with historical or Market risk premiums
prospective models
8%
► Implied (forward-looking) MRP are based on 7.00%
dividend discount models, calculating the 7%
expected market return by comparing the 6.00% 6.00%
index value with the estimated dividend 6%
streams (analyst estimates) 5.00% 5.08%
5%
► Implied MRP are available e.g. on Bloomberg
4%
2%
Where 1%
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February 2018
Basic formula Historical beta versus future beta EY Switzerland best practice
► The beta is a correlation measure of equity ► The CAPM theory is based on market ► Since no standardized and widely accepted
returns with market returns. The beta participant‘s expectations of the future sources exist for future betas, we rely on
represents the systematic risk of a security historical betas
or a portfolio in comparison to the market ► Therefore, in theory, future betas should be
as a whole used ► N.B. Barra Beta as one source for future betas
► CAPM is based on an “all-comprising” market ► Use the broadest local index of a stock
index, but such an index does not exist in exchange where a company is listed (to avoid
practice currency conversion)
► National versus supranational index (e.g. MSCI ► Use MSCI World (attention: adjust for FX
World) effects) as a comparison
► Performance versus price index ► Use price return indices instead of
performance indices to avoid dividend
► Currency of the index versus currency of the
correction
stock
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February 2018
► Depending on the time horizon and periodicity ► We apply 5 years monthly data (i.e. 60
of beta estimation, the beta might vary observations)
significantly
► Monthly to exclude positive and negative
► 5 years monthly / 2 years weekly / daily price market exaggerations
observations
► The raw beta is the beta based on an OLS ► For industrial companies, we suggest to take
regression the adjusted beta, since mean reversion
seems to be an observable phenomenon
► The adjusted beta is an average (2/3 raw beta
+ 1/3 times the market beta of 1) accounting ► For financial services companies like banks
for mean reversion. This is known as Blume we suggest to use the levered raw equity beta
adjustment
► Based on the implied assumption on the ► Due to practicality, we apply the Practitioner’s
sustainability of cash flows and tax shields as method, assuming a relatively constant capital
well as a relatively or absolutely constant structure and a debt beta of 0
capital structure, there are different possibilities
► Unlevered beta = beta levered x ( 1 + D / E )
of un- and relevering
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February 2018
1. Identification / selection of comparable companies (long list, short list) 2. Collection / analysis of historical and prospective financial
information of peers, which serve as a basis for the determination of
► Industry / sector
the capital structure
► Size
► Profitability /
growth
► Markets / segments
► Risk profiles
3. Determination of the raw beta by the use of regression techniques 4. Due to a lack of comparability of the equity betas because of the
different capital structures of the peers, the respective equity betas
Based on empirical analysis, betas tend to 1 over time, therefore the get transformed by unlevering, i.e. neutralizing the individual capital
betas are often adjusted according to Blume (see formula) structure, in order to get the unlevered beta (beta if the assets are
2 1 fully equity financed)
= ∗ + ∗1
3 3
1 2 4 3
Market cap in Minority Total Debt / total capital Adjusted Unlevered Unadjusted Number of
Companies Ticker Country Currency Filing date Ref. Index
CHF interests debt most recent beta beta beta (raw) points
Caterpillar Inc. NYSE:CAT United States USD 09/2017 91'365 70 35'925 27.69% 1.195 0.871 1.293 60 S&P 500 Index
Komatsu Ltd. TSE:6301 Japan JPY 09/2017 33'281 76'600 817'321 17.24% 0.994 0.823 0.991 60 Nikkei 225 Index
Wacker Neuson SE DB:WAC Germany EUR 09/2017 2'430 - 233 10.09% 1.074 0.966 1.111 60 Cdax Index
Terex Corporation NYSE:TEX United States USD 09/2017 3'952 1 985 19.54% 1.597 1.285 1.895 60 S&P 500 Index
BAUER Aktiengesellschaft XTRA:B5A Germany EUR 09/2017 601 4 742 58.89% 1.152 0.474 1.228 60 Cdax Index
Kato Works Co., Ltd. TSE:6390 Japan JPY 09/2017 347 886 34'630 45.78% 1.069 0.579 1.103 60 Nikkei 225 Index
Tadano Ltd. TSE:6395 Japan JPY 09/2017 2'050 544 36'643 13.37% 1.298 1.124 1.447 60 Nikkei 225 Index
The Manitowoc Company, Inc. NYSE:MTW United States USD 09/2017 1'349 - 288 17.20% 0.588 0.487 0.381 60 S&P 500 Index
Low 10.09% 0.588 0.474
Average 26.22% 1.121 0.826
Median 18.39% 1.113 0.847
High 58.89% 1.597 1.285
Source: Capital IQ
Valuation date: 31 December 2017
(1) All values are in millions
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February 2018
► On average, smaller companies achieve ► EY Switzerland applies the size premium derived from a study published in Duff & Phelps - Valuation
higher risk-adjusted returns. In the long run, Handbook 2017. The smaller a company’s market capitalization, the higher the size premium
higher returns are related with higher risk ► N.B. According to standard Anglo-Saxon risk literature, systematic risk is considered in the cost of
► The additional return of smaller companies is capital (i.e. the WACC), whereas unsystematic is accounted for in the cash flows or with discounts on
not fully reflected in the CAPM (i.e. beta is the asset/company value. We recommend including only the small size premium in the WACC. Other
underestimated) unsystematic risks should be accounted for in the cash flows or with general discounts on the asset /
company value
► To reflect the additional risk of smaller
companies more adequately, the cost of equity
derived from the CAPM is adjusted with a size Size premium over the risk free rate by size portfolio Small size premium range
premium
Where 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Size premium
► ce = Cost of equity Source: Duff & Phelps – Valuation handbook 2017
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3
Cost of debt
February 2018
► Cost of debt is determined by a company’s ► Cost of debt as an input to the WACC is typically calculated on an after tax basis to reflect the tax
deductibility of debt (tax shield on interest) if taxes in the cash flow calculation are based on EBIT x tax
► debt capacity (leverage, interest rate
rate (i.e. notional taxes)
coverage, debt / EBITDA multiple etc.)
► the overall market condition and Weighted average cost of capital Comments (source)
► the company’s access to financing Base rate / "risk free" rate 0.22% a Implied yield on 10-year government bond of Switzerland in local currency, 5 years historic average (Capital IQ)
Market risk premium 6.00% b Global market risk premium (market studies)
cd = rf + credit spread Adjusted unlevered beta 0.847x c Derived from peer group median value (Capital IQ), adjustment according to Blume
Adjusted relevered beta 1.038x d According to Practitioners' Method: Beta (relevered) = beta (unlevered) * (1 + D/E)
Where Size premium 3.67% e Size premium for Micro-cap (Duff & Phelps, Valuation Handbook 2017)
Base rate / "risk free" rate 0.22% h Implied yield on 10-year government bond of Switzerland in local currency, 5 years historic average (Capital IQ)
► rf = Risk free rate
Credit spread 1.10% i Credit Spread from Barclays Europe Aggregate Index - BBB
Equity ratio 81.61% l Capital structure derived from peer group median value (Capital IQ)
Debt ratio 18.39% m Capital structure derived from peer group median value (Capital IQ)
Corporate income tax rate 20.00% n Corporate income tax rate (EY Worldwide Corporate Tax Guide)
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February 2018
► Companies have to compensate its creditors ► Application of credit spread according to a corporate bond reference index with adequate geographic
for the risk of a potential default. The credit focus and a respective rating
spread represents the expected compensation
of creditors of investments of a specific risk Credit spread – Barclays Europe Aggregate
category compared to a risk free investment 2.5%
► The credit spread should reflect the assumed
2.0%
leverage and debt capacity
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
31.12.2012 31.12.2014 31.12.2016
AAA AA A BBB
Source: Capital IQ
► Alternative sources based on the average rating of the peer group are credit spread tables from Reuters
Source: Capital IQ
Valuation date: 31 December 2017
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4
Other parameters
February 2018
► Determination of capital structure requires 1. Minority interests and preferred equity are classified as equity
further clarification
2. (Over)/underfunded pensions are only considered if they reflect a “true” financial liability (which is e.g.
► Certain balance sheet items may not obviously not the case for Swiss IAS19 liabilities) or consistently reported by peer group companies
be classified as debt or equity
3. Balance sheet items which are classified as debt and interest bearing
► Minority interests
4. Cash and cash equivalents are not considered, i.e. total debt = gross debt (as opposed to net debt),
► Preferred equity assuming that the cash a company holds is “on average” operational
► (Over)/underfunded pensions
1 2 3 4
Minority Preferred (Over)/Underfunded Short-term Long-term Current Portion of Current Portion Capital Finance Div. Finance Div. Debt Cash and Total
Companies Currency
interests equity pensions liabilities liabilities Long-Term Debt of Cap Leases Leases Debt Current Non-Current equivalents debt
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February 2018
► The currency of the base rate should be Swiss company (Reporting currency: CHF)
consistent with the currency in which the free
cash flows are denominated
► The base rate should be determined by where ► Case 1 | Free cash flows: 100% CHF
a company generates its free cash flows and ► Cash flows are subject to 100% CHF related risks
not (per se) where it is legally domiciled
► Swiss government bond as base rate
► The company value should remain constant
when considering different currencies (to avoid
company under- or overvaluation) ► Case 2 | Free cash flows: 50% CHF and 50% USD. Local USD business plan converted into CHF
► Interest rate parity theory (covered): Interest using forward rates
rate differential between two countries is equal ► Due to the conversion with forward rates, free cash flows are subject to CHF related risks only
to the differential between the forward
exchange rate and the spot exchange rate ► Swiss government bond as base rate
► Forward rates are not available for all
currencies ► Case 3 | Free cash flows: 50% CHF and 50% USD. Local USD business plan converted into CHF
► Long-term forward rates are generally difficult using spot rates
to come by ► Due to the conversion with spot rates, USD free cash flows are subject to USD currency risks
► Weighting of USD and CHF government bonds according to free cash flow split
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February 2018
Base rate (US/EUR/CH) ► Use of a local government bond rate which reflects (to a certain extent) specific country risk, if possible:
+ Inflation differential ► Requires availability of adequate financial information for appropriate base rate (i.e. monthly average
of 10-year government bond over 5 years on Capital IQ)
+ [ Market risk premium incl. 0.11 CRP ] x Beta
► No integration of specific country risk premium required, as it is already reflected in the respective
+ Size premium base rate
+ 0.89 CRP ► Can lead to inflated discount rates in case of excessive credit risk, e.g. in the case of Spain, Italy,
= Cost of equity Portugal, Greece during debt crisis
► Alternative approach:
Base rate (US/EUR/CH) ► Alternatively use Damodaran’s country risk premiums on top of a USD, EUR or CHF base rate
(adjusted for the inflation differential between the respective countries)
+ Inflation differential
► Country risk premium = Country rating-based default spread x 1.12 (factor of 1.12 to adjust for the
+ adj. default spread additional volatility of equity markets as compared to bond markets)
+ Credit spread Weighted average cost of capital Comments (source)
Base rate / "risk free" rate 3.03% a Implied yield on 10-year government bond of Switzerland in local currency (Capital IQ) incl. inflation differential (Oxford Economics)
= Cost of debt Market risk premium 6.80% b Global market risk premium (market studies) incl. adjustment for Damodaran's country risk premium for Brazil (Risk premiums for other markets 2017 - Damodaran)
Adjusted unlevered beta 0.847x c Derived from peer group median value (Capital IQ), adjustment according to Blume
Adjusted relevered beta 1.038x d According to Practitioners' Method: Beta (relevered) = beta (unlevered) * (1 + D/E)
Size premium 3.67% e Size premium for Micro-cap (Duff & Phelps, Valuation Handbook 2017)
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