Applied Mathematics Unit 1: Caribbean Advanced Proficiency Examination
Applied Mathematics Unit 1: Caribbean Advanced Proficiency Examination
Applied Mathematics Unit 1: Caribbean Advanced Proficiency Examination
EXAMINATION
(C.A.P.E)
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CONTENTS PAGE
CONTENTS PAGE
Project Title
3
Purpose Of Project
4
Conclusion 20
Reference / Bibliography
21
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PROJECT TITLE
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PURPOSE OF PROJECT
This project aims to investigate the relationship between the Annual Production of the Gold
Mining Industry and the Annual Export of Gold in Guyana. This topic is relevant and worth
investigating since gold is one of Guyana’s main natural resources. Hence, the country depends
Controlled: Data gathered, which were Guyana’s gold production and exportation quantities for
each year.
Responding: The relationship between the quantity of gold produced and the quantity of gold
exported.
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METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION
The gold export data used in this project was retrieved from the Bank of Guyana 2018 Annual
Report on the 18th March, 2019 while the data for Guyana’s gold production was obtained from
Journal entries from The Senior Economist at Guyana Geology and Mines Commission on the
The researcher after analysing the data when it was obtained, saved it on a computer as well as
transferred the information onto a flash drive as a means of backup in the case the information
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PRESENTATION OF DATA
YEAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
PRODUCTION 260,387 305,178 308,438 363,083 438,645 481,103 387,507 451,059 712,707 653,754
(OUNCES)
EXPORT 250,751 311,884 302,654 347,850 455,072 482,526 385,682 448,247 677,788 664,848
(OUNCES)
TABLE SHOWING VALUES IN OUNCES OF GOLD PRODUCED IN AND EXPROTED FROM GUYANA DURING THE
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GOLD PRODUCTION FROM 2008 TO 2017
800,000
700,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YEAR
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GOLD EXPORT FROM 2008 TO 2017
800,000
700,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YEAR
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ANALYSIS OF DATA
𝑛Σ𝑥𝑦 − Σ𝑥Σ𝑦
r=
√[𝑛Σ𝑥 2 − (Σ𝑥)2 ][𝑛Σ𝑦 2 − (Σ𝑦)2 ]
(10)(2.081x1012 ) − (4361861)(4327302)
r=
√[(10)(2.101x1012 ) − 43618612 ][(10)(2.064x1012 ) − 43273022 ]
r = 0.99277
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The Least Squares Regression Line of Y on X
𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥
𝑛Σ𝑥𝑦 − Σ𝑥Σ𝑦
𝑏=
𝑛Σ𝑥 2 − (Σ𝑥)2
(10)(2.081x1012 ) − (4361861)(4327302)
𝑏=
(10)(2.101x1012 ) − 43618612
𝑏 = 0.9752
Σ𝑦 − 𝑏Σ𝑥
𝑎=
𝑛
(4327302) − (0.9752)(4361861)
𝑎=
10
𝑎 = 7361.515
𝑦 = 7361.515 + 0.9752𝑥
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The Least Squares Regression Line of Y on X
800000
600000
GOLD EXPORTS (OUNCES)
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000
GOLD PRODUCTION (OUNCES)
FIGURE 3: THE GRAPH ABOVE SHOWS THE LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION LINE OF Y ON X.
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The Least Squares Regression Line of X on Y
𝑥 = 𝑐 + 𝑑𝑦
𝑛Σ𝑥𝑦 − Σ𝑥Σ𝑦
𝑑=
𝑛Σ𝑦 2 − (Σ𝑦)2
(10)(2.081x1012 ) − (4361861)(4327302)
𝑑=
(10)(2.064x1012 ) − 43273022
𝑑 = 1.0107
Σ𝑥 − 𝑑Σ𝑦
𝑐=
𝑛
(4361861) − (1.0107)(4327302)
𝑐=
10
𝑐 = −1174.31
𝑥 = −1174.31 + 1.0107𝑦
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Least Squares Regression Line of X on Y
800000
700000
x = 1.010y - 1174.31
600000
GOLD PRODUCTION(OUNCES)
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000
GOLD EXPORTS(OUNCES)
FIGURE 4: THE GRAPH ABOVE SHOWS THE LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION LINE OF X ON Y.
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The Chi-Square Test for Independence of Two Variables
H0: There is no relationship between gold production and gold export in Guyana
H1: There is a relationship between gold production and gold export in Guyana
THE CONTINGENCY TABLE ABOVE SHOWS THE GOLD PRODUCTION AND EXPORT IN
GUYANA OVER A TEN YEAR PERIOD AND THEIR ROW AND COLUMN TOTALS.
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Observed Values (O) Expected Values (E) (𝑶 − 𝑬)𝟐
𝑬
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482526 479898.20 14.389
(𝑂 − 𝐸)2
Σ = 1785.638
𝐸
THE TABLE ABOVE SHOWS THE EXPECTED AND OBSERVED VALUES OF GOLD
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Acceptance
Region Critical Region
0.95
0.05
9 (0.95) = 16.92
Since the 𝜒 2 test statistic falls within the critical region we reject the null hypothesis and
conclude that at a 5% significance level there is a relationship between the production of gold
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DICUSSION OF FINDINGS
According to the Pearson’s Moment Correlation Coefficient calculated, there was a very strong,
positive relationship between gold production and gold export. The correlation coefficient
calculated was 0.9952, which suggests that gold production and gold export in Guyana are
almost perfectly correlated. Being perfectly correlated means that as one variable increases, the
In addition, the least squares regression line of y on x was calculated to provide an equation that
allows us to determine the gold export (y) when given a known value for the gold production (x).
The regression coefficient of the least squares regression line of y on x was calculated to be
0.9801. This regression coefficient implies that for every increase in gold export, there is a
0.9801 increase in gold production. Since 0.9801 is approximately equal to 1, the regression
coefficient is effectively saying that for every unit increase in gold export, there is approximately
a unit increase in gold production. This further suggests that gold production and gold export are
In comparison, the least squares regression line of x on y was calculated to provide an equation
that allows us to determine the gold production (x) when a given a known value for the gold
export (y). The regression coefficient calculated was 1.0107, which is also approximately equal
to one. As such, for every unit increase in gold production, there is approximately a unit increase
in gold export.
Moreover, to further solidify the fact that gold export and gold production were not independent,
a chi squared test for independence was undertaken at the 5% significance level. As indicated by
the conclusion of the one tailed hypothesis test, the chi square test statistic fell within the critical
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region of the graph, it was concluded that at the 5% confidence level, gold production and gold
export in Guyana were closely associated. While this association cannot be determined by the chi
square test, the association was proven to not be independent as indicated by the three previous
tests.
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CONCLUSION
It can be concluded that there was a direct relationship between gold production and export in
Guyana. This relation was found using The Person’s Moment Correlation Coefficient, where
there was a very strong, positive relationship between gold production and gold export. The
correlation coefficient calculated was 0.9952, which suggests that gold production and gold
export in Guyana are almost perfectly correlated. This was further solidify using the Chi Squared
test for Independence, where the null hypothesis was rejected, and it was concluded at a 5%
significance level that there was an association between Guyana Gold Production and Export.
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BIBLIOOGRAPHY
REFERENCE
https://nre.gov.gy/guyana-gold-board/
http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/linreg.htm
https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/probability-and-statistics/correlation-
coefficient-formula/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_correlation_coefficient
https://stattrek.com/chi-square-test/independence.aspx
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