Is LNG The New Oil?: Energy Transformation
Is LNG The New Oil?: Energy Transformation
Is LNG The New Oil?: Energy Transformation
1 Mar 2019
The global LNG market is currently one of the fastest growing sectors in the energy industry and will likely continue to evolve in the
next few years.
The emergence of new major export and import players has altered the patterns of the international gas trade and brought a new
geopolitical dimension to the LNG trade. The transformed landscape has compelled some countries to reshape their foreign policy in
accordance with their energy strategy.
The LNG market is increasingly affected by international relations as much as by supply and demand. Perhaps it is time to ask
whether LNG is becoming the new oil?
Energy Transformation
LNG is playing an increasingly important role in the global energy mix, driven by its environmentally friendly characteristics,
versatility, and relatively cheap price. LNG is perceived as a transition fuel that can facilitate countries’ move towards cleaner energy.
The drastic change in availability, in particular the emergence of the U.S. as a major player in the space, has been the impetus for
countries to shift their business model and to form new alliances in order to achieve energy security and supply diversification.
The U.S. is not only exporting LNG but also its market-based approach. This includes its flexible contractual framework
and its competitive pricing model that relies on its national benchmark Henry Hub at the expense of the traditional oil
indexation mechanism.
Historically, LNG market structure has relied on long-term rigid agreements with destination restriction clauses which
prohibit the buyer from reselling cargoes in a secondary market to capture any arbitrage opportunity. The rigidity of
destination clauses made each bilateral transaction unique and prevented LNG from becoming a homogenous
competitive commodity. However, the new wave of U.S. LNG export projects is structured around a market-based model
founded on flexible agreements with destination optionality provisions. This contractual framework is revolutionary
because it has induced some importers to renegotiate their existing contracts and has stimulated LNG spot trading.
To face the intense competition from US LNG, Russia has taken a few steps to adjust its gas strategy for example (1) introducing
a hybrid formula to its traditional oil indexation system and allowing its state-owned energy company Gazprom to sell LNG at
“unregulated” prices, (2) continuing to invest in more pipeline expansion like Yamal to China through Siberia or Nord Stream 2 from
St. Petersburg to Germany, which has been a very contentious project.
Another example of the effect of the new competition is the case of Lithuania which received its first U.S. LNG cargo in August 2018.
The arrival of the shipment was welcomed with a formal ceremony attended by government officials. The U.S. State Department
tweeted a congratulatory message to the importing country. Although it was a single cargo, this transaction had a symbolic
geopolitical significance since Lithuania was part of the former Soviet Union.
Additionally, Poland’s main state energy company, PGNiG, signed a 20-year contract with major U.S. LNG producers and
announced their intention not to extend their long-term contract with Moscow, which is due to expire in 2022. These examples reflect
that U.S. LNG presents an optionality advantage which is driving some countries to shift their energy policy to diversify supply at a
competitive price while decreasing their heavy reliance on Russian gas. The European market can potentially become a battlefield
for gas preeminence between US and Russia.
Giant LNG producers such as Qatar, Nigeria, Algeria etc. have also felt the winds of change and mounting pressure from the U.S.
and Australia, the new strong competitors with world-class liquefication facilities, and have started to invest in new capacity. For
example, in April 2017, Qatar, the world’s biggest LNG producer, announced that it had lifted a 12-year moratorium on new projects
to produce 20 bcma of LNG. The move appears designed to preserve Qatar’s competitive edge and market share, which industry
observers have suggested could be eclipsed by the new entrants. As shown in chart 4 below, the U.S. will likely account for almost
one quarter of global gas production, overtaking the Middle East.
Chart 4: Global LNG Exports
Conclusion
The LNG market is experiencing a profound transformation driven primarily by new developments in supply and demand
fundamentals. Due to the growing importance of LNG as a key fuel for the global energy mix and its implications for
energy security, LNG has begun to be viewed through a geopolitical lens in a similar way to oil. While oil and LNG may
have both similarities and differences, the one common factor they both share is that both are a part of international
political discourse.