2008 Erismanetal NatureGeo
2008 Erismanetal NatureGeo
2008 Erismanetal NatureGeo
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% World population/
30
supplies was in reality a central motivation
for industrial ammonia production.
With the blockade of Chilean saltpeter 3,000 Meat production
supplies during the First World War, the 20
Haber–Bosch process provided Germany
2,000
with a home supply of ammonia.
This was oxidized to nitric acid and 10
used to produce ammonium nitrate, 1,000
nitroglycerine, TNT (trinitrotoluene) and
other nitrogen-containing explosives.
Haber’s discovery therefore fuelled the 0 0
First World War, and, ironically, prevented 1900 1950 2000
what might have been a swift victory for
the Allied Forces. Since then, reactive
nitrogen produced by the Haber–Bosch Figure 1 Trends in human population and nitrogen use throughout the twentieth century. Of the total world
process has become the central foundation population (solid line), an estimate is made of the number of people that could be sustained without reactive
of the world’s ammunition supplies. As nitrogen from the Haber–Bosch process (long dashed line), also expressed as a percentage of the global
such, its use can be directly linked to population (short dashed line). The recorded increase in average fertilizer use per hectare of agricultural land
100–150 million deaths in armed conflicts (blue symbols) and the increase in per capita meat production (green symbols) is also shown.
throughout the twentieth century5.
Fertilizers
to produce — this is partly reflected in Together with the role of reactive
At the same time, the Haber–Bosch the global increase in per capita meat nitrogen in ammunition supplies, these
process has facilitated the production of consumption (Fig. 1). In contrast, the figures provide an illustration of the
agricultural fertilizers on an industrial latest Food and Agriculture Organization huge importance of industrial ammonia
scale, dramatically increasing global report shows that approximately 850 production for society, although, on
agricultural productivity in most regions million people remain undernourished8. balance, it remains questionable to what
of the world7 (Fig. 1). We estimate that the Overall, we suggest that nitrogen extent the consequences can be considered
number of humans supported per hectare fertilizer has supported approximately as beneficial.
of arable land has increased from 1.9 to 27% of the world’s population over
4.3 persons between 1908 and 2008. This the past century, equivalent to around Unintended consequences
increase was mainly possible because of 4 billion people born (or 42% of the
Haber–Bosch nitrogen. estimated total births) since 1908 (Fig. 1). Of the total nitrogen manufactured by
Smil estimated that at the end of For these calculations, we assumed the Haber–Bosch process, approximately
the twentieth century, about 40% of that, in the absence of additional 80% is used in the production of
the world’s population depended on nitrogen, other improvements would agricultural fertilizers10. However, a large
fertilizer inputs to produce food2,6. have accounted for a 20% increase in proportion of this nitrogen is lost to the
It is difficult to quantify this number productivity between 1950 and 2000. environment: in 2005, approximately
precisely because of changes in cropping Consistent with Smil6, we estimate, 100 Tg N from the Haber–Bosch
methods, mechanization, plant breeding that by 2000, nitrogen fertilizers were process was used in global agriculture,
and genetic modification, and so on. responsible for feeding 44% of the world’s whereas only 17 Tg N was consumed
However, an independent analysis, based population. Our updated estimate for by humans in crop, dairy and meat
on long-term experiments and national 2008 is 48% — so the lives of around products11. Even recognizing the other
statistics, concluded that about 30–50% of half of humanity are made possible by non-food benefits of livestock (for
the crop yield increase was due to nitrogen Haber–Bosch nitrogen. example, transport, hides, wool and so
application through mineral fertilizer7. In addition, fertilizer is required on), this highlights an extremely low
It is important to note that these for bioenergy and biofuel production. nitrogen-use efficiency in agriculture
estimates are based on global averages, Currently, bioenergy contributes 10% (the amount of nitrogen retrieved in
which hide major regional differences. of the global energy requirement, food produced per unit of nitrogen
In Europe and North America, increases whereas biofuels contribute 1.5%. These applied). In fact, the global nitrogen-
in agricultural productivity have been energy sources do not therefore have a use efficiency of cereals decreased
matched by luxury levels of nitrogen large influence on global fertilizer use9. from ~80% in 1960 to ~30% in 200012,13.
consumption owing to an increase in the However, with biofuel production set to The smaller fraction of Haber–Bosch
consumption of meat and dairy products, increase, the influence of Haber–Bosch nitrogen used in the manufacture of
which require more fertilizer nitrogen nitrogen will only grow. other chemical compounds (~20%) has
FAO (improved)26
100 of reactive nitrogen on the greenhouse
gas balance, including its interactions
with nitrous oxide, methane, ozone
50
and aerosols21,22.
0
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 A1 A2 B1 B1 The next century of Haber–Bosch