Information Transparency: Can You Value What You Cannot See?
Information Transparency: Can You Value What You Cannot See?
Information Transparency: Can You Value What You Cannot See?
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An Experiment
Company A Company B
Operating Income $ 1 billion $ 1 billion
Tax rate 40% 40%
ROIC 10% 10%
Expected Growth 5% 5%
Cost of capital 8% 8%
Business Mix Single Business Multiple Businesses
Holdings Simple Complex
Accounting Transparent Opaque
Which firm would you value more highly?
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Transparency: The Basic Questions
Some companies reveal more about themselves in their financials than others.
The key questions that relate to transparency are the following:
• What is it that we would like to know about companies when we value them?
• Why are some companies more opaque than others?
• How do we measure transparency?
• How, if at all, should we consider transparency in the context of valuation?
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Sources of Complexity
Accounting Standards
Nature and mix of businesses
Structuring of businesses
Financing Choices
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1. Accounting Standards
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2. Nature and Mix of Businesses
Industry mix: Diversification and increasing size has led many firms to enter
multiple businesses which often are very different. This makes the resulting
financial statements difficult to decipher.
Country mix: For other firms the complexity has come from global
expansion. The financial statements have to wrestle with questions of
exchange rate conversions and their effects on asset value and earnings.
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3. Structuring of Businesses
Accounting for Cross Holdings: The different and often inconsistent ways in
which cross holdings are accounted for can make valuation hazardous.
• With majority active holding, the full consolidation of financials even when the
firm owns less than 100% opens up the question of how to deal with minority
holdings.
• With minority holdings, tracing the income from the holding and the assets of the
holding can be difficult especially with private holdings.
Creative holding structures: Special purpose entities and other such structures
can result in assets and liabilities being moved off the books (for legitimate
and illegitimate purposes).
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4. Financing Choices
Financing choices have proliferated in the last two decades. From a simple
mix of bonds and stocks, firms have progressively moved on to add
• Hybrid securities that are combinations of debt and equity, thus making them
difficult to categorize
• New securities that defy description…
Derivative securities
These financing choices have made accounting statements more complicated
creating new categories (quasi equity) and confounding old ones.
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Reasons for Complexity
Control
• Complex holding structures were designed to make it more difficult for outsiders
(which includes investors) to know how much a firm is worth, how much it is
making and what assets it holds.
• Multiple classes of shares and financing choices also make it more likely that
incumbents can retain control in the event of a challenge.
Tax Benefits
• Complex tax law begets complex business mixes and holding structures.
– Different tax rates for different locales and different transactions
– Tax credits
Deceit
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Measuring Complexity
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1. Volume of Data in Financial Statements
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2. The Opacity Index (PW)
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Most Opaque and Least Opaque Countries
Country C L E A R O-Factor
Least Opaque
Singapore 13 32 42 38 23 29
Chile 30 32 52 28 36 36
USA 25 37 42 25 48 36
UK 15 40 53 45 38 38
Hong Kong 25 55 49 53 42 45
Most Opaque
South Korea 48 79 76 90 73 73
Turkey 51 72 87 80 81 74
Indonesia 70 86 82 68 69 75
Russia 78 84 90 81 84 84
China 62 100 87 86 100 87
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3. An Information Based Index
Assets Liabilities
What are the assets in place? What is the value of the debt?
How valuable are these assets? Assets in Place Debt How risky is the debt?
How risky are these assets?
What are the growth assets? Growth Assets Equity What is the value of the equity?
How valuable are these assets? How risky is the equity?
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DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW VALUATION
Riskfree Rate :
- No default risk Risk Premium
- No reinvestment risk Beta - Premium for average
- In same currency and + - Measures market risk X
risk investment
in same terms (real or
nominal as cash flows
Type of Operating Financial Base Equity Country Risk
Business Leverage Leverage Premium Premium
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Devising the Index
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Using the Index
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Consequences of Complexity
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Dealing with Complexity
The Aggressive Analyst: Trust the firm to tell the truth and value the firm
based upon the firm’s statements about their value.
The Conservative Analyst: Don’t value what you cannot see.
The Compromise: Adjust the value for complexity
• Adjust cash flows for complexity
• Adjust the discount rate for complexity
• Adjust the expected growth rate/ length of growth period
• Value the firm and then discount value for complexity
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1. Adjust the Cash Flows for Complexity
a. Identify how much of the earnings of the firm come from assets that are
invisible or not clearly identified. In particular, focus on earnings from
holdings in private businesses (or special purpose entities) as well as other
non-operating income (such as income from pension funds and non-recurring
tansactions)
b. Assign a probability that management of the firm can be trusted with their
forecasts. This is difficult to do, but it should reflect both objective and
subjective factors. Among the objective factors is the history of the firm –
past accounting restatements or errors will weigh against the management –
and the quality of corporate governance – firms with strong and independent
boards should be more likely to be telling the truth. The subjective factors
come from your experiences with the management of the firm, though some
managers can be likeable and persuasive, even when they are misrepresenting
the facts.
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2. Adjust the Discount rate for complexity
Estimate the historical risk premium attached to complex firms by comparing the
returns you would have made on a portfolio of complex firms historically to the returns
you would have earned on a market index.
Adjust the betas of complex firms for the lack of the transparency. If you trust markets,
it is possible that the betas of complex firms will be higher than the betas of simple
firms.
Relate the adjustment of the discount rate to the information that is not provided in the
financial statements. You can estimate the beta of a firm by taking a weighted average
of the betas of the businesses it is in. If the financial statements are so opaque that you
cannot get one or another of these two pieces of information for some of the businesses
that the firm operates in, you should err on the side of caution and assume that these
businesses are much riskier than the rest of the firm and attach a large enough weight to
these businesses to make the overall beta increase.
d. If the complexity is not in the asset side of the balance sheet but on the liability side,
you could adjust the debt to equity ratio to reflect the true leverage of the firm
(including the off-balance sheet debt).
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3. Adjust Expected Growth/ Length of Growth Period
In valuing any firm, two key inputs that determine value are the length of the
growth period and the expected growth rate during the period. More
fundamentally, it is the assumptions about excess returns on new investments
made by the firm during the period that drive value.
One way to adjust the value of complex companies then is to assume a lower
return on capital on future investments and assume that these excess returns
will fade much more quickly. In practical terms, the lower expected growth
rate and shorter growth periods that emerge will result in a lower value for the
firm.
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4. Estimate a complexity discount to value
1. One is to develop a rule of thumb, similar to those used by analysts who value private
companies to estimate the effect of illiquidity.
2. A slightly more sophisticated option is to use a complexity scoring system, to measure
the complexity of a firm’s financial statements and to relate the complexity score to the
size of the discount.
3. You could compare the valuations of complex firms to the valuation of simple firms in
the same business, and estimate the discount being applied by markets for complexity.
With the hundred largest market cap firms, for instance:
PBV = 0.65 + 15.31 ROE – 0.55 Beta + 3.04 Expected growth rate – 0.003 # Pages in 10K
Thus, a firm with a 15% return on equity, a beta of 1.15, and expected growth rate of 10%
and 350 pages in the 10K would have a price to book ratio of
PBV = 0.65 + 15.31 (.15) – 0.55 (1.20) + 3.04 (.10) - .003 (350) = 1.54
4. If a firm is in multiple businesses, and some businesses are simple and others are
complex, you could value the company in pieces attaching no discount to the simple
pieces and a greater discount to the more complex parts of the firm.
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Cures for Complexity
Legislation
• Useful for creating a uniform base standard and show moral outrage
• Blunt instrument with unintended consequences
Auditing and Accounting Integrity
• Reduce conflicts of interest
• Have fewer and simpler rules, with less discretion on rules.
• One set of books for both reporting and tax purposes
• Better reporting when in multiple businesses
• Capital arms (GE capital etc.) should report separately
Skeptical investors and Proactive Analysts
Stronger Corporate Governance
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