New Scientist 25 May 2013
New Scientist 25 May 2013
New Scientist 25 May 2013
Old dog
new tricks
You never lose the ability
to learn like a child
MULTIVERSAL MINDS
String theory versus the space brains
I S S£3.70
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THE HEAT IS OFF POINT AND CLICK FILMING MEMORIES 2 1
A second chance to Why computers must Are fish really all
tackle climate change learn sign language that forgetful?
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Contents Volume 218 No 2918
News News
4 UPFRONT
Features Features
Regulars
3 Editorial The challenges wearable
computing faces are social, not technological
Coming next week… 30 ENIGMA
60 Feedback Drinking liquid oxygen
Your inner voice 61 The Last Word Hot in the hay
Deciphering the language of human thought 50 Jobs & careers
Urban mining
There’s treasure under them thar streets
LOCATIONS
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Unobtrusive computers pose social, not technological, challenges
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Australia WHEN did you last look at your That’s not to say the transition The social concerns are harder
Tower 2, 475 Victoria Avenue,
Chatswood, NSW 2067 phone? If you own a smartphone, will go smoothly. Doubts have to overcome. Wearable computers
Tel +61 2 9422 8559 it was probably just a short
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been raised about Glass’s can interfere with human
USA
time ago. A glance around any implications for privacy, its less interactions in unsettling ways.
225 Wyman Street, commuter train will confirm than handsome looks, hefty price Your companion may not like the
Waltham, MA 02451
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Fax +1 720 356 9217 by our digital companions. Glass may turn out to be too checking your messages – or their
201 Mission Street, 26th Floor, So much so that it’s supposedly bleeding-edge for any but the
San Francisco, CA 94105
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Tel +1 415 908 3348 taking a toll on our bodies: all earliest of early adopters. That might be considered impolite, or
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cONTACTS
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Contact us to interact with computers more computing for long. The wearable computer while
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Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 becoming an everyday reality feature set (see page 19), just as the Ubicomp may let us interact
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Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 checking in with our phones, uptake of smartphones. If Google but it can’t fix everything. (Its
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Paul Hellstern/AP/PA
Anatomy of tornado’s toll
THE tornado that ripped through remained grounded for 3.5 hours.
Moore, a suburb of Oklahoma City, on In addition, many houses in
Monday was not a record-breaker in Oklahoma lack storm shelters. “It’s
terms of its size, strength or duration. significantly cheaper to lay a slab of
So why was it so devastating? concrete and build a house than it is to
Despite not topping the charts, the dig a basement,” says David Schultz of
tornado scored highly on all three the University of Manchester, UK.
factors. It was roughly 3 kilometres That’s risky but understandable, he
across. The largest tornado ever says. Although Oklahoma sits smack
recorded hit Hallam, Nebraska, in in the middle of tornado alley,
2004, and was about 4 kilometres in historical records show that any given
diameter. In terms of strength, the patch of land will be struck by a
US National Weather Service says the tornado of EF-2 or greater only about
tornado measured at least 4 on the once every 1000 years.
Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, with winds As New Scientist went to press, the
of 270 to 320 kilometres an hour, just death toll from the Moore twister
short of the top rating of EF-5. And stood at 24. Jeff Masters of Weather
the twister stayed on the ground for Underground estimates that the
40 minutes. Most last just a few damage could rival the most costly
minutes; the longest on record was tornado ever, the $2.8 billion tornado
the Tri-State Tornado in 1925, which that hit Joplin, Missouri, in 2011.
–Home wrecker–
trackingpoint
Hot in the city Causing a stink
Doctors hoping to perform a faecal
THE Big Apple is cooking: climate
transplant – replenishing a gut with
change will increase the number
healthy bacteria to treat infection
of temperature-related deaths
and even Parkinson’s – must apply to
within decades.
the US Food and Drug Administration
for an “investigational new drug
“New York is taking action application”. This will improve
to protect its citizens from “Quote to go in here over safety, but some are grumbling over
extreme heat by planting four lines range left like the 30-day lag this imposes on
trees and painting roofs” this Quote to go in her treatment.
like this xxxxx”
A warmer climate means more
extremely hot days in summer,
Second sight
and fewer extremely cold days in A man blinded by the degeneration
winter, leaving people more of his retinal cells has had his sight
vulnerable in summer. restored in one eye after receiving
Radley Horton of Columbia –Too lethal for comfort?– a stem cell treatment. Human
University in New York has now embryonic stem cells were turned
into retinal pigment epithelial cells
calculated the net effect. He Sniping made easy University in Cincinnati, Ohio.
and then transplanted into his
matched daily temperature data But Trevor Burrus, a specialist
for Manhattan with death rates BULLSEYE, again. A new “self- in gun regulation at the Cato retina, as part of a trial by Advanced
between 1982 and 1999, then used aiming” rifle can help even a Institute, a think tank in Cell Technology in Marlborough,
temperature forecasts to estimate novice shooter hit targets up to Washington DC, says it would be Massachusetts.
future death rates. In all his 16 900 metres away. But critics are odd to stop people buying a rifle
models, temperature-related already warning of the potential because of its accuracy. “There is Critternaut casualties
deaths increased almost consequences of allowing anyone no reason to believe that this The space zoo has landed but many
immediately (Nature Climate to become a deadly sharpshooter. technology will be used less of the critternauts are dead. Russia’s
Change, doi.org/mkc). The $22,000 weapon, a responsibly, especially with the Bion-M1 spacecraft took a range of
New York is already taking precision guided firearm, is made exorbitant price tag,” he says. animals into orbit to probe the
action to protect its citizens from by TrackingPoint, based in Austin, biological effects of space travel.
extreme heat, as part of a broader Texas. It includes a computer that
initiative called PlaNYC that aims decides the best moment to fire,
Bees buzz back But when it returned to Earth after a
month in orbit, most of the mice and
to protect the city from climate compensating for factors like IT’S a rare piece of good news all of the gerbils had perished. The
change. The city is planting extra for pollinators. In Europe, wild geckos and snails survived but will
trees, painting roofs white and “The rifle’s computer insects and plants are bouncing be euthanised for study purposes.
creating “cooling centres” where compensates for factors back after decades of decline.
people can escape the worst of the like wind speed, arm shake The years between 1950 and Fukushima floods
heat. Many other mid-latitude and the bullet’s slight dip” 1989 saw drastic decreases in the
It’s the biggest remaining problem
cities will need to adapt, says range of species in Belgium, the
at Fukushima: each day, 400 tonnes
Horton. “Efforts under way in New wind speed, arm shake and the UK and the Netherlands. But since
of groundwater flood Japan’s
York City are a valuable example.” bullet’s slight dip due to gravity. 1990, lost or new species have
stricken nuclear plant. Juan Carlos
When the beam from the gun’s appeared, indicating that for
Lentijo of the International Atomic
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A second chance to
something many climate gases have warmed the Earth
scientists had all but given up so far.
hope on. They then looked at what that
would rise by 1.6 °C, but Otto “The observations are telling sensitivity is at the low end, and
A view to a cut found an increase of 1.3 °C us one thing and the climate we have a strong agreement in
Even if the world is warming (Nature Geoscience, doi.org/mj7). models are telling us another,” 2015, I think we stand a chance to
more slowly, urgent action “It might buy us five or says Forest. He thinks the most limit climate change to 2 °C,” says
is more pressing than ever 10 years,” says Chris Forest of likely range is between 2.5 and Corinne Le Quéré of the Tyndall
Penn State University, although 3 °C, slightly below the IPCC’s Centre for Climate Change
“The worst case scenarios he cautions that the problem estimate. Research in Norwich, UK. “But
are looking less likely. hasn’t gone away. If the new figures are right, there are a lot of ifs.”
We still have to reduce Not everyone is convinced that it’s a rare piece of good news for We can improve our chances by
Otto’s results change the picture. international climate talks. For cutting emissions of short-lived
emissions drastically. If we
“Short-term trends are just not warming agents like soot, says
don’t, we are talking about
that useful,” says Gavin Schmidt “A lot of us were gloomy Tim Lenton of the University
crossing 2 °C for sure” of the NASA Goddard Institute for that we would go over 2°C. of Exeter, UK. Otto’s research
Myles Allen, University of Oxford Space Studies in New York. Susan It’s not a foregone suggests that they have a bigger
Solomon of the Massachusetts conclusion any more” effect than previously thought,
“I think this is overdue. I’ve Institute of Technology adds so getting rid of them will buy
been arguing it for a few that recent volcanic eruptions the last few years, governments even more time.
years, and some powerful temporarily cooled the climate, have been planning to sign a deal Regardless, emissions must
people have been very masking some of the warming. in 2015 that will come into force still peak very soon to give us even
But others say that Otto’s in 2020. That seemed far too late. a 50:50 chance of staying below
resistant ... The most
calculations take account of Based on previous estimates of 2 °C, says Jason Lowe of the Met
noteworthy thing about these problems, so are probably the climate sensitivity, global Office in Reading, UK. “It was
this is not what is being said, about right. “The authors have emissions needed to peak by 2020 looking like the best we could
but who is saying it” done a very careful job,” says and then fall to have a 50 per cent attain was a 40:60 chance,” says
James Annan, JAMSTEC Yokohama Hoskins. chance of avoiding 2 °C. Hoskins. “If the negotiations are
Institute for Earth Sciences, Japan So it looks as if temperatures “If we are lucky and the climate done seriously, 2 °C is still on.” n
will rise slightly more slowly
“If anything it’s given me than expected in the short term.
greater resolve. If [previous But does it change where the
climate ends up the long run?
estimates] were true,
That depends on how sensitive
keeping the world below the climate is to CO2 accumulating
2 °C would have been in the atmosphere.
almost impossible, however The 2007 report of the
big our emission cuts. Now it
looks like we have a chance”
Intergovernmental Panel on What is cancer
Piers Forster, University of Leeds, UK
Climate Change (IPCC) estimated
that a doubling of CO2 in the and how can we
“It’s still collectively possible
atmosphere would mean
temperatures eventually stabilise control it?
between 2 °C and 4.5 °C above
to stay within the 2 °C Physicist and best-selling author Paul Davies takes
pre-industrial temperatures, with
boundary, and we should a best estimate of about 3 °C. This
a fresh look at cancer and describes a bold new
try to do so. It’s giving some long-term stabilisation is known theory that suggests a radical approach to therapy
hope that we can lower the as climate sensitivity.
risk of long-term threats to A growing number of climate
big ice sheets” scientists thinks that the
climate is less sensitive to CO2
Tim Lenton, University of Exeter, UK
than the IPCC’s best estimate,
Wednesday 5 June 2013 6.30 - 8.00 pm
so temperatures will not rise as
“If it does mean a little Conway Hall,
much as feared, even in the long
breathing space, great. run. “I’ve been arguing this for a 25 Red Lion Square,
It should not take the few years,” says James Annan of London WC1R 4RL
pressure off at all. The the JAMSTEC Yokohama Institute Three minutes from Holborn tube station
major thing is that global for Earth Sciences in Japan.
emissions have to peak When Otto calculated the Tickets £5 online, £7 on the door*
and start to come down” climate sensitivity from his To find out more and to buy your ticket go to:
Brian Hoskins, Grantham Institute data, he found that it was about cancertalk.eventbrite.co.uk
for Climate Change, London 2 °C – well below the IPCC’s best
*Subject to availability
estimate of 3 °C.
B vitamins may
slow onset
of Alzheimer’s
THOSE at risk of developing
Alzheimer’s may be able to slow its
onset, through daily B vitamins.
We already know that a high level
of the amino acid homocysteine
in the blood is a risk factor for
Alzheimer’s, and that B vitamin
supplements help reduce
homocysteine levels. But it was
unclear whether or not these
supplements could slow the
progression of mild cognitive
impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s.
–What can you remember?– David Smith and Gwenaëlle
Douaud at the University of Oxford
New memories
The team also updated the led a research effort to find out. They
fish’s memory by retraining them used MRI to track changes in the
to stay close to the light instead of brains of 200 elderly volunteers with
Request a prospectus
The Open University is incorporated by Royal Charter (RC 000391), an exempt charity in England and Wales and a charity registered in Scotland (SC 038302).
THIS WEEK
When The Australian Academy of Science was – often described as “the spiritual home of dedicated to excursions to the Great Barrier Reef,
founded on 16 February 1954, few could have Australian science”. Green Island and the Kuranda Scenic Railway.
envisioned that its location in Canberra, the The HFI/NQI meetings bring together experts Dr Boswell said that while plasma chemistry
nation’s capital, would become a hotbed of and students from a variety of scientific is a relatively small section of the scientific
research, development and education half a disciplines including theoretical, nuclear, atomic community Australia “is on the cutting edge” of
century later. and condensed matter physics, materials science, the specialisation.
Modelled on the Royal Society in London, synchrotron research, as well as chemistry, Like their expertise in chemistry, Australian
the Australian Academy of Science now has biology, medicine and engineering. The HFI/NQI scientists are also leading the world in physics –
more than 450 pre-eminent Fellows, employed event in Canberra will be the 17th International a point not lost on the scientific community or
by universities, the CSIRO, government and Conference on Hyperfine Interactions and the general public during the 36th International
private research organisations. In 2013 four the 21st International Symposium on Nuclear Conference on High Energy Physics held in
Canberra-based Australian National University Quadrupole Interactions. Melbourne in 2012.
academics were elected as Australian Academy It is expected that 80 per cent of delegates It was announced at this conference that a
of Science Fellows. attend visit from international markets. discovery of a new (Higgs boson) particle had
Despite its size, Canberra is regarded as an Later this year, Professor Timmers’ associate at been made that confirms what scientists believe
intellectual hub with institutions including the the UNSW Canberra, Dr Anthony Day, a Senior about how the universe was created.
Australian National University, Canberra Deep Lecturer in Molecular Design and Reaction Chair of the conference and one of the leading
Space Communication Complex, Condensed Mechanisms and Organic Chemistry, is hosting scientific researchers in the search for the so-
Matter and Materials Physics, CSIRO, Research the 3rd International Conference on Cucurbituril. called Higgs boson particle, the University of
School of Physics and Engineering, Department The bi-annual meeting, which focuses on Melbourne’s Professor Geoff Taylor, said there
of Nuclear Physics, University of NSW, Canberra, molecular interaction, was held in Korea in 2009 were 820 delegates in Melbourne present for the
and University of Canberra. and the United Kingdom in 2011. historic meeting.
Indeed, the city’s academic expertise in the field of Dr Day expects 80 per cent of delegates will As the meeting Chair and an Ambassador for
science, and particularly in physics and chemistry, attend from international markets, predominantly Melbourne he said he could not have been
is proving a boon for the business events sector, from Asia including China and India. happier with the conference and the outcomes.
with the city hosting an increasing number of Another Canberra-based Professor, Dr Rod “The majority thought it was a fabulous
high-level international scientific meetings. Boswell from the Research School of Physical conference. They thought Melbourne was a great
In 2014 Associate Professor Heiko Timmers Sciences and Engineering at ANU, is chairing city; they liked the lifestyle, the cafes and the
from the School of Physical, Environmental and another science-based international meeting dining options; and the Melbourne Convention
Mathematical Sciences at the UNSW Canberra in 2013 – the 21st Symposium on Plasma and Exhibition Centre is a great centre,” he said.
and Professor Andrew Stuchbery from the Chemistry – with this one to be held in Cairns in Events like this provide delegates the
Department of Nuclear Physics at ANU, are Tropical North Queensland. opportunity to meet with Australian and
hosting the 5th Joint International Conference Organised on behalf of the International Plasma international leaders in their field.
on Hyperfine Interactions and Symposium on Chemistry Society, around 400 scientists, He said following this meeting’s success it was
Nuclear Quadrupole Interaction. researchers and academics from around the world likely Australia would be hosting another high-
This meeting will fittingly be held in The will hold meetings at the purpose-built Cairns profile physics-related international conference
Australian Academy of Science’s Shine Dome Convention Centre with a day mid-conference in 2015.
Visit
businesseVents.australia.com
for eVerything you need to plan your australian eVent.
THIS WEEK
Suicidal behaviour:
For example, when people people who committed suicide
with bipolar disorder who have had a mental disorder, but
attempted suicide begin taking Turecki says that suicide rather
a treatable disease?
lithium, they tend to stop such than mental illness was the only
attempts even if the drug has no significant predictor for the
effect on their other symptoms. epigenetic changes.
This suggests that the drug may Other studies back up the
Sara Reardon Until the 1980s, people who be acting on neural pathways that suggestion that your genes
committed suicide were specifically influence suicidal influence suicide risk. For
COULD suicidal behaviour be a considered, by definition, to be tendencies (Annual Review of example, a study of adopted
disease in its own right, rather depressed. That didn’t explain Pharmacology and Toxicology, people who had committed
than a behaviour resulting from why 10 per cent of suicides have doi.org/dfjv57). suicide found that their biological
a mood disorder? no history of mental illness. The Gustavo Turecki of McGill relatives were six times more
Mounting evidence shows view began to change when University in Montreal, Canada, likely to commit suicide than
striking similarities in the brains autopsies revealed distinctive says that there are likely to be members of their adopted family
of people who are suicidal. These features in the brains of people many environmental factors that
are distinct from what is seen in who had committed suicide, such trigger changes in the brains of “Suicidal people’s brains
the brains of people who have as structural changes in areas people who are already genetically have striking similarities,
mood disorders but who died of involved in decision-making – prone to suicide, ultimately distinct from those with
natural causes. regardless of what disorder they increasing risk of the behaviour. mood disorders”
Such studies have led to “suicide had, and even when they had no This month, in a study of
behaviour disorder” being mental disorder at all (Brain suicidal brains, his group found (American Journal of Medical
accepted for the first time, albeit Research, doi.org/cvrpjk). 366 genes that had a different set Genetics, doi.org/fmsncv).
in the appendix, in the newest Although research is of epigenetic markers – chemical Ultimately, biological markers
version of psychiatry’s “bible” – complicated by a lack of brain switches that are triggered by might allow psychiatrists to better
the Diagnostic and Statistical samples or an animal model for environmental stressors and turn predict which patients are most at
Manual of Mental Disorders suicide, the idea that suicidal genes on and off – to those found risk of suicide. This could have
(DSM-5) – released this week. The behaviour has a distinct biology in the brains of people who had implications for how a doctor
appendix contains topics deemed is gaining ground. An increasing died of natural causes (American chooses to treat that person, says
to have enough weight to require number of studies are yielding Journal of Psychiatry, doi.org/ Jan Fawcett of the University of
further research for possible full insights into some of the changes mf7). The results are complicated New Mexico in Albuquerque. For
inclusion in future editions. that may underlie such behaviour. by the fact that many of the instance, they may not prescribe
certain antidepressants, as there
is evidence that some initially
increase suicide risk.
David Shaffer of Columbia
University in New York says that
suicide behaviour disorder is
“very much in the spirit” of the
Research Domain Criteria system
that the US National Institute
of Mental Health has proposed as
an alternative diagnosis standard
to DSM-5. Rather than diagnosing
people with a specific disorder,
such as depression, the NIMH
wants mental illness to be
diagnosed and treated based on
an individual’s symptoms, and
their underlying genetics and
neurobiology.
Ultimately, says Nader Perroud
of the University of Geneva in
Switzerland, if suicidal behaviour
is considered a disease, it will
Justin Sullivan/Getty
Arc is designed to be read on digital devices – tablets, smartphones, Kindles, Nooks, PCs and Macs.
B u y y o u r c o p y n o w a t a r c f i n i t y. o r g
IN BRIEF
Steven Kazlowski / naturepl.com
superstock
approximate the shape of the object
IVF boosted by
reflect more light than mismatched
ones. The computer weights each time-lapse video
pattern accordingly and overlays
the results, so that a picture of the TIME-LAPSE imaging could triple
object – in this case a polystyrene a couple’s chance of successful IVF.
dummy head (pictured below) – Simon Fishel at the CARE
gradually emerges. Fertility clinic in Nottingham, UK,
Real-world applications are a bit and colleagues have devised a way
limited for now, because it takes to analyse the development of
about half an hour to build a picture. embryos to pinpoint those most
But digital camera sensors for likely to have chromosomal
non-visible wavelengths are abnormalities – the main
expensive or non-existent, while contributor to IVF failure.
single-pixel detectors are cheap. So Fishel’s team filmed 88 newly
if such ghost imaging can be sped fertilised eggs from 69 couples in
up, infrared detectors could be used their incubator until they become
to identify potential natural-gas blastocysts – the small ball of cells
fields from warm gas leaking from that is implanted into the womb.
the ground, while detectors of Analysis of the footage
terahertz wavelengths might be indicated that embryos with For speedier sums, electrify the brain
used in airport security scanners. chromosomal abnormalities take
about 6 hours longer to form a BAD at times tables? Just zap your the people given TRNS were twice as
University of Glasgow
blastocyst. The team then devised brain with electricity. fast at mental calculations and their
an algorithm that identifies such Roi Cohen Kadosh at the rate of improvement was twice that
embryos and flags them as high University of Oxford and colleagues of the other group. Their ability to
risk. The algorithm also monitors have shown that you can boost recall arithmetic facts such as times
other aspects of growth that mental arithmetic by delivering an tables improved five-fold in both
indicate good health. electrical signal to the brain, exciting measures. Six months later, half the
Currently, about 25 per cent of the neurons. Using such transcranial group returned for retesting. The
IVF treatments in the UK lead to random noise stimulation (TRNS), TRNS group still performed the
live births. The team estimates electrodes were placed on the scalp calculations 28 per cent faster than
that the new technique could over areas including the prefrontal people given the sham treatment
raise the success rate to 78 per cortex – used for mental maths. (Current Biology, doi.org/mj2).
cent (Reproductive BioMedicine, The team gave 25 people TRNS and Cohen Kadosh says TRNS could
doi.org/mjt). Fertility experts 26 a sham treatment. Both groups be useful for children with learning
were impressed but called for were initially equally fast at their difficulties, or help to rehabilitate
further comparison with existing sums. After five 40-minute sessions, people after a stroke.
methods for selecting embryos.
Danger! Flash
reuters
< of glasses that are connected to
the internet,” says Skotzko.
Glass also makes activities that
you would not want to do with a
always on them,” he says. n arcades,” he says. “People would the handholds while playing. –Play your way to work–
Yuriko Nakao/Reuters
Keep the customer satisfied
If you enjoy an advert, you are more likely to buy the product.
A new system will help advertisers work out how their latest
offering is going down, just by watching your face. The
software, developed at the MIT Media Lab, looks at how
muscles in the face move in response to watching a video.
It can then decide what counts as positive facial responses
and gauge which adverts the viewer will enjoy the most.
revolution
power into the grid. “Something more of the machines that are out there,”
stable is much less frightening for the Papa says. “40South weren’t lucky,
grid operator,” he says. “They’re going they were good.” Hal Hodson n
In association with
LIM
FE
4. Sauté—Dry-Heat Cooking with Fat
55%
R
5. Roasting—Dry-Heat Cooking without Fat
6. Frying—Dry-Heat Cooking with Fat
off 7. From Poach to Steam—Moist-Heat Cooking
NE
RD 8. Braising and Stewing—Combination Cooking
U
O
ER BY 1 7 J 9. Grilling and Broiling—Dry-Heat Cooking
without Fat
10. Stocks and Broths—The Foundation
11. The Stir-Fry Dance—Dry-Heat Cooking with Fat
12. Herbs and Spices—Flavour on Demand
13. Sauces—From Beurre Blanc to Béchamel
14. Grains and Legumes—Cooking for Great Flavour
15. Salads from the Cold Kitchen
16. Eggs—From the Classic to the Contemporary
17. Soups from around the World
18. From Fettuccine to Orecchiette—Fresh and Dry Pastas
19. Meat—From Spatchcocked Chicken
to Brined Pork Chops
20. Seafood—From Market to Plate
21. Vegetables in Glorious Variety
22. A Few Great Desserts for Grown-Ups
23. Thirst—The New Frontier of Flavour
24. Crafting a Meal, Engaging the Senses
24 | NewScientist | 25
00 May
Month
2013
2013
Cry for help
“LIFE. That’s what’s in this picture that’s missing
in pictures of ivory, or poached animals,” says
photographer James Morgan.
This blue-eyed tiger cub changed the focus of
Morgan’s photography when he stumbled across
a tiger rescue in Bangkok, Thailand. This cub
and 15 others were found hidden in a fruit crate
behind the cab of a truck bound for Laos. Morgan
had a flash of inspiration: rather than continue
to bombard the world with pictures of tusks and
animal carcasses, essentially information about
what is already lost, he decided to remind us of
what we still have, in the hope that we’ll feel more
compelled to protect it.
Here, veterinary practitioners are sampling the
cub’s DNA in order to find out where the batch of
16 came from. This should help authorities better
trace and crack down on the criminal network.
Though it’s still unclear who put them in the
back of the truck, it’s almost certain that they
were being traded for their supposed medicinal
qualities. Traditional Chinese medicine views
tiger parts as providing good luck and protective
powers, but cubs are also often traded for their
fur or as pets for the elite.
For this cub, and others like it, the story
doesn’t end happily. According to Morgan, it faces
a lifetime in captivity at wildlife breeding centres
because it is too risky to release these sought-
after animals back into the wild. Morgan’s hope
is that images like this one – taken on behalf of
a WWF campaign – will appeal to the conscience
of those who buy animal products. Julia Sklar
Photographer
James Morgan
WWF-CANON
Drowning in numbers
We know that sea level will rise, but how far and how fast? The latest attempt
to put figures on it is dangerously misleading, says Michael Le Page
IMAGINE your job is to protect but its numbers come with some
London from surging seas. In one rather large caveats.
way it is easy: unlike most coastal For starters, the modellers
cities, London has a formidable didn’t have the computing power
flood defence system in the form to look at a range of scenarios for
of the Thames Barrier, capable how much carbon dioxide we
of protecting it from all but the will pump into the atmosphere.
highest storm surges. Instead, they looked at just one –
But as the seas rise, the risk of a “mid-range” scenario predicted
the barrier being breached will by the 2007 report to lead to
increase steadily. With a 1-metre warming of around 3 °C.
rise in local sea level, London will Yet actual emissions today are
get flooded every 10 years. So much closer to the worst-case
when do you start building new scenario, which some recent
flood defences, and how high do studies predict could lead to
you make them? warming of 6 °C or more. And
The stakes are enormous. far from falling, annual global
Building new defences will cost emissions are rising ever faster.
tens of billions and involve With hundreds more coal-fired
decades of planning and power stations being built and
controversy before construction new sources of fossil fuels like tar
even begins. Get it wrong, and sands being exploited, there is
storm surges could kill thousands good reason to think emissions
and displace millions. So all will continue to soar for many
around the world, planners are decades to come.
clamouring to know how fast the What’s more, to account for
seas will rise as the planet warms. the fact that warming will not be
Until recently, scientists could warming of 5.4 °C, even though on the fact that this is less than uniform across the globe, the
not give them any reliable the report’s highest projection some other recent estimates of modellers had to produce regional
numbers. There were no was 6.4 °C. Unsurprisingly, many at least a metre. “Seas will rise projections of warming, snowfall
computer models capable of people wrongly took 59 cm of sea no more than 69 centimetres by and so on to feed into the ice
simulating the melting of the level rise to be the worst case. 2100,” proclaimed this magazine. models. But regional projections
world’s ice sheets and glaciers. Now we have some more Others focused on the fact that are highly unreliable, with
The 2007 report of the numbers. A European-funded even this relatively small rise could different models often producing
Intergovernmental Panel on project called ice2sea has have devastating consequences. wildly varying results. The prime
Climate Change (IPCC) handled developed computer models of “Floods could overwhelm Thames example is the Arctic, where the
this uncertainty really badly. It glaciers and ice sheets. Earlier Barrier by end of century,” sea ice is disappearing much
acknowledged that we don’t know this month it announced that declared The Guardian in London. faster than anyone expected.
how fast all the ice will melt, but melting ice would contribute How much trust can we put in To understand why regional
then gave some numbers anyway between 4 and 37 cm to global these numbers, though? The whole climate predictions are so much
– between 18 and 59 centimetres sea level by 2100. Adding this point of the ice2sea programme less reliable than global ones,
of sea level rise by 2100 – based on to the other causes of sea level was to “reduce the uncertainty”, think of the heat entering the
highly dubious assumptions such rise – the main one being the atmosphere and oceans as water
as glaciers continuing to flow at expansion of the oceans as they “The projections for how pouring into a bath. Predicting the
the same rate and the Antarctic ice warm – gives figures of between much sea level will rise average level of the bath is much
sheet growing larger. The numbers 16 and 69 cm by 2100. imply a level of certainty easier that predicting the height
also assumed a maximum Some media reports focused that simply doesn’t exist” of the waves sloshing around.
unexpected. Previous work suggested CO₂ levels get below 400 again.
Michael Le Page is a features editor at were more variable, making measurement very Interview by Catherine Brahic
New Scientist
Lofty ambitions
Lunar mining start-up Moon Express is testing robotic moon landers in
advance of a 2015 trial mission. Internet entrepreneur Naveen Jain tells
Paul Marks why he founded the firm, and why he’s leaving the pursuit
of asteroids to rival space miners
How did you go from internet businesses to Before you can start mining, you have to get Profile
moon mining? to the moon. Post Apollo, hasn’t the ability to Naveen Jain is a former
I’d been looking at how to solve big problems land on the moon been temporarily lost? veteran of Microsoft
in alternative energy. A lot of the time, All the technology to get to and land on the and founder of internet
innovative ideas don’t get very far because moon exists already – whether it is simply businesses Intelius and
we just don’t have the affordable material an autonomous lander or a more complex Inome. With Barney Pell
resources here on Earth. Take platinum, for robotic exploration mission. Our spacecraft and Bob Richards, he
example, which could possibly be used as a and its autonomous control and landing founded Moon Express
catalyst for fuel cells in hydrogen-fuelled cars. software is working already in tests at a NASA in 2010. The company,
It is so expensive here on Earth. Or helium-3, facility. Our lander is an entrant in the Google based in Mountain View,
which you could potentially use in future Lunar X Prize. The minute a private company California, aims to mine
fusion reactors to create a non-radioactive is able to land on the moon, that’ll be a precious resources on
energy source. We got to wondering if we significant event that changes everything – the moon
could harvest such materials from space, and because that has never been done before.
specifically from the moon. There are so many
riches in space: why not go and get them? How much is NASA involved with your venture?
NASA is providing us with the underlying
You mentioned platinum and helium-3, what technology. Its Ames Research Center is
other resources can you mine on the moon? developing a lunar orbiter called the Lunar
All the gold, cobalt, iron, palladium, tungsten Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer.
and so on mined from Earth’s crust came from We are taking almost the same spacecraft
asteroids that hit Earth after its crust cooled. design, miniaturising it, and using that
These same types of asteroids bombarded the technology for our lander mission in 2015.
moon throughout its history, so we can expect
the same resources to be available on or near What are the milestones after you land?
the lunar surface. Once we prove we can land safely we’ll show
we can hover over the lunar surface. We may
Others believe asteroids are the best source leave a small commemorative payload on
for such materials. Why shoot for the moon? the moon and then lift off to lunar orbit.
My thinking has always been: why go to an Bringing anything we later mine back from
individual asteroid when the moon has been the moon will have three separate, technically
an aggregator of asteroids for billions of years? challenging elements: getting mined
Look up at the moon on a clear night and all resources into lunar orbit, from there to Earth
you see are craters where asteroids have struck. orbit, and then to Earth’s surface. The great
And because the moon has no atmosphere, thing here is that we don’t have to invent
and there is no tectonic activity, all of the anything new to do all this.
asteroid material is still sitting there on the
surface. It has already been crushed, so it Your lander is set to take off in 2015. If that all
is all ready to be processed. Moon mining goes to plan, when do you expect to deploy
will be mostly open-skimming of surface your first mining equipment?
materials. Additionally, the lunar gravity We intend to send prospecting sensors on our
is of tremendous benefit because it means first mission. Our second mission will involve
equipment used on Earth for gold or platinum further prospecting and proof-of-concept for
mining can be modified to work there. our mining techniques. Then, in our third
by some, probably incorrectly, as from waste sound (4 May, p 34). a symptom of cognitive bias. She inventing and finding new and
having no lasting physical effects. So he will be disappointed to has simply elevated her beliefs to surprising solutions.
I wonder how long it will be learn that the energy generated the point where she sees them as Cheveley, Cambridgeshire, UK
before portable “pain rays” by the noise from a crowd of facts. For example, Alice believes
enter the interrogation room. about 80,000 people at an that the world she perceives via
West Malling, Kent, UK international football match at her senses is real. 400 and rising
Wembley stadium in London is Ashford, Kent, UK
From Alain Williams sufficient to cook only a couple From Iain Climie
The pain ray’s millimetre- of eggs. The news that atmospheric
wavelength microwaves are King’s Somborne, Hampshire, UK All art carbon dioxide levels have
stopped by the water in reached 400 parts per million
0.4 millimetres of skin, but they From Tony Chabot is depressing, but no surprise
can penetrate clothing. However, Bee careful (18 May, p 5). There has been
wet clothing might act like skin, precious little serious effort to
and so an easy defence could be From Nigel Raine, address the problem.
to soak your clothes. bee researcher, Royal Holloway, Even if net greenhouse gas
High Wycombe, University of London emissions from human activity
Buckinghamshire, UK The weight of peer-reviewed somehow became neutral –
scientific evidence does indeed through carbon capture and
suggest that field-relevant storage, say – the genie may still
Pet detectives exposure to neonicotinoid be out of the bottle with regard to
pesticides can have adverse effects climate change. There is a time lag
From Steve Dalton on bees (4 May, p 6). But whether of decades between changes in gas
Feedback highlighted that a gated the EU moratorium on the use of levels and temperature changes.
housing development in Texas these chemicals will benefit bees Whitchurch, Hampshire, UK
was taking swabs from residents’ depends on what alternative pest In response to Nick Craddock’s
dogs so that any faeces left on control is used. article hoping that psychiatry
sidewalks could be traced back to Bees are exposed to multiple gets its Higgs boson moment For the record
their pets (13 April). pesticides when foraging, so the (27 April, p 30), Jeremy Holmes
Perhaps we should applaud risk assessment for pesticides suggested that the discipline n Ei! The look at a common origin for
them for realising that a simple should take account of this, “is inherently a marriage of art seven families of Eurasian languages
pack of swabs makes a cheap as well as potential sub-lethal and science” (11 May, p 31). I half (11 May, p 10) included a map showing
deterrent for those who don’t behavioural effects and longer- agree: it is art. Estonia in the Indo-European family.
clear up after their dog, given the term impacts. Kings Norton, West Midlands, UK In fact it is part of the Uralic family.
fear of naming and shaming, with Each year, insects provide n In our review of Frank Zelko’s book
no actual DNA analysis required. essential pollination worth at on the rise of Greenpeace (27 April,
Chipstead, Kent, UK least £440 million to UK Strange thoughts p 50), Fred Pearce said the group
agriculture. Pesticides are a “began in the US”. In fact, Greenpeace
crucial tool for achieving high From Trevor Jones was founded in Vancouver, Canada.
So much hot air levels of crop production. Both Douglas Hofstadter and n A bleak future was reported
have clear benefits. We need to Emmanuel Sander speculate on for the painted turtle amid rising
From Frank Fahy, emeritus ensure that pesticides are used the pervading nature of analogy temperatures (11 May, p 16).
professor of engineering acoustics, in ways that minimise harm to in our thought processes, “from Researcher Rory Telemeco has
University of Southampton pollinating insects. throwaway remarks to deep asked us to clarify that the model
Benjamin Clayton ponders the Egham, Surrey, UK scientific and artistic insights” used in his research predicted the
idea of recovering useful energy (4 May, p 30). extinction of one local population
I’d point them to a statement on the Mississippi river, rather than
Reality check sometimes attributed to the the species as a whole.
German artist Paul Klee: “Art is
From Philip Duffy making the strange familiar and Letters should be sent to:
I must question David Hobday’s the familiar strange”. Letters to the Editor, New Scientist,
explanation of the illusion of self In their emphasis on the 84 Theobald’s Road, London WC1X 8NS
(27 April, p 35), with his example importance of analogical thinking Fax: +44 (0) 20 7611 1280
of Alice, who “knows enough to in making the strange familiar, Email: [email protected]
live a healthy, happy life, and of bringing order out of chaos,
Include your full postal address and telephone
expects to die and be reduced to Hofstadter and Sander underplay number, and a reference (issue, page number, title)
ash. She has no beliefs.” its importance in making the to articles. We reserve the right to edit letters.
Reed Business Information reserves the right to
Alice may think that she exists familiar strange – which is an use any submissions sent to the letters column of
without beliefs, but this is in itself important part of discovering, New Scientist magazine, in any other format.
Old schooled
Learning like a child is a cinch if you know how, says David Robson
S
ome 36-year-olds choose to collect childhood is overrated,” says Gary Marcus, critical period,” says Daphne Bavelier at the
vintage wine, vinyl records or sports a psychologist at New York University. University of Rochester, New York.
memorabilia. For Richard Simcott, it What’s more, we now understand the best These are extreme circumstances, of course,
is languages. His itch to learn has led him to techniques to accelerate knowledge and skill but the evidence suggested that the same
study more than 30 foreign tongues – and acquisition in adults, so can perhaps unveil neural fossilisation would stifle other kinds
he’s not ready to give up. a few tricks of the trade of super-learners of learning. Many of the studies looked at
During our conversation in a London like Simcott. Whatever you want to learn, language development – particularly in
restaurant, he reels off sentences in Spanish, it’s never too late to charge those grey cells. families of immigrants. While the children
Turkish and Icelandic as easily as I can name The idea that the mind fossilises as it picked up new tongues with ease, their
the pizza and pasta on our menu. He has ages is culturally entrenched. The phrase parents were still stuttering broken sentences.
learned Dutch on the streets of Rotterdam, “an old dog will learn no tricks” is recorded But if there is a critical period for foreign
Czech in Prague and Polish during a house in an 18th century book of proverbs and language learning, everyone should be
share with some architects. At home, he is probably hundreds of years older. affected equally; Simcott’s ability to master
talks to his wife in fluent Macedonian. When researchers finally began to a host of languages should be as impossible
What’s remarkable about Simcott isn’t just as a dog playing the piano.
the number and diversity of languages he has
mastered. It’s his age. Long before grey hairs
”The idea that the mind Bearing this in mind, Ellen Bialystok at York
University in Toronto, Canada, recently turned
appear and waistlines expand, the mind’s cogs fossilises is entrenched, to the US census records, which detailed the
are meant to seize up, making it difficult to but old dogs are better linguistic skills of more than 2 million Hispanic
pick up any new skill, be it a language, the and Chinese immigrants. A “critical period” for
flute, or archery. Even if Simcott had primed learners than we thought” learning a second language in infancy should
his mind for new languages while at school, have created a sharp difference between those
he should have faced a steep decline in his investigate the adult brain’s malleability in who had moved country in early childhood
abilities as the years went by – yet he still the 1960s, their results appeared to agree with and those who were uprooted in adolescence.
devours unfamiliar grammars and strange the saying. Most insights came indirectly from In reality? “There was absolutely no
vocabularies to a high level. “My linguistic studies of perception, which suggested that discontinuity,” Bialystok says. Instead, she
landscape is always changing,” he says. “If an individual’s visual abilities were capped at saw a very gradual decline with age among
you’re school-aged, or middle-aged – I don’t a young age. For example, restricting young immigrants – which could reflect differences in
think there’s a big difference.” animals’ vision for a few weeks after birth environment as much as the adults’ rusty brain
A decade ago, few neuroscientists would means they will never manage to see circuits. “People talk more slowly and clearly to
have agreed that adults can rival the learning normally. The same is true for people born children in short, simple sentences,” she says.
talents of children. But we needn’t be so with cataracts or a lazy eye – repair too late, “And the child’s entire social and educational
defeatist. The mature brain, it turns out, is and the brain fails to use the eye properly network is organised around that language.”
more supple than anyone thought. “The idea for life. “For a very long time, it seemed that Yet while Bialystok’s study suggested that
that there’s a critical period for learning in those constraints were set in stone after that adult brains are more pliable than had once >
I
T IS one of the biggest telescopes on the a seething plasma of charged particles that Gravitational Observatories in Hanford,
planet, yet it looks remarkably small constantly absorbed and re-emitted photons, Washington, and Livingston, Louisiana, which
against the vast Antarctic landscape. meaning that light couldn’t escape. Only when were built to spot the ripples through space-
In this blindingly white icy world where the temperatures eventually dropped low enough time sent out by colliding black holes or
December sun never sets, it is hard to judge for these particles to combine into neutral neutron stars. Yet such waves should still leave
distances. The true size of the South Pole atoms could radiation, and therefore light, a telltale pattern in the cosmic microwave
Telescope’s 10-metre-wide dish only becomes propagate freely through the universe. So we background. Detecting and characterising that
apparent when our small tracked vehicle may have a baby photo of the universe from pattern might allow us to distinguish between
pulls up next to the building that houses it. the moment the cosmos became transparent, various models of inflation.
No one considers walking here from the but we haven’t captured the instant of birth. That’s why Benson is so excited about his
US Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station just It’s a pity, says Benson, for theory tells us team’s new camera, the South Pole Telescope
a few hundred metres away. While a wind that exciting things happened in these very Polarimeter (SPTpol). It is designed to make
chill of almost -40 ˚C is considered balmy first fleeting moments. According to the detailed measurements of the polarisation
by residents at the station, my fingers grow hypothesis of cosmic inflation, the universe of the CMB radiation. In the same way that
numb soon after I take off my gloves to snap started to expand exponentially when it sunlight is polarised when it reflects from a
some pictures. And although I’m wearing was only about 10-36 seconds old, driven by lake or a road, the CMB radiation is polarised
goggles that cover half my face, wind-drawn a mysterious vacuum energy with negative as it scatters off electrons on its journey
tears freeze onto my eyelids. pressure. In a tiny fraction of a second, the through the universe. Gravitational waves are
Senior scientist Brad Benson of the observable universe expanded from a size predicted to subtly change the polarisation >
govert schilling
Asad Aboobaker
pattern. As they ripple through space-time, In fact that’s nothing. The Array for Space Research and Technology Centre in
they shift the electrons in a distinctive way Microwave Background Anisotropy, AMiBA, is Noordwijk, the Netherlands. He hopes Planck
and so leave their hallmark in the CMB (see some 3400 metres up on the slopes of Mauna will be first to detect the polarisation signal
diagram, far right). Loa on Hawaii. Conditions are particularly from inflationary gravitational waves.
Spotting that pattern is going to be tough – good – for telescopes, at least – in the Atacama But Planck’s detectors are not as sensitive as
a bit like listening for the sound of a cricket desert in Chile. Since 2012 the Polarbear some of the ground-based instruments, and
during a rock concert. The weak polarisation experiment to measure the CMB polarisation they are unable to observe the smallest-scale
signal from primordial gravitational waves is has been housed at an altitude of 5200 metres patterns. That gives other CMB polarisation
overwhelmed by a much stronger one from near the summit of Cerro Toco. Later this year, experiments an opportunity to take the lead.
density fluctuations in the early universe. it will be joined by the ACTPol camera at the And there are plenty of them.
This strong signal was first detected in 2002 nearby Atacama Cosmology Telescope. This Several are running at high-altitude
by a telescope called the Degree Angular Scale will provide the most sensitive measurement locations. Others dangling under balloons
Interferometer, also at the South Pole. No ever of the CMB polarisation, says Mike have recently flown high above Antarctica,
one knows how hard it will be to detect the Niemack of Cornell University in Ithaca, New Australia and New Mexico. The BICEP-2 device
gravitational-wave polarisation pattern, says York, who helped develop the detectors for has been running since 2009 on a small
Benson. “It’s a subtle effect,” says the South both the South Pole and Atacama telescopes telescope at the South Pole, while the EBEX
Pole Telescope’s principal investigator John and who now works on the Atacama team. detector completed a 25-day balloon flight
Carlstrom. So far, the best upper limits of Competition between the two teams is over Antarctica in January.
gravitational-wave polarisation were fierce, but friendly, says Niemack. And it won’t Yet more experiments are being planned.
obtained in 2006 and 2007 by yet another stop at the current generation of polarimeters. “What I can say for sure is that there will be
South Pole instrument, the Background The SPTPol team is already building a new, a lot of progress in the next few years,” says
Imaging of Cosmic Extragalactic Polarization upgraded instrument that will be ten times Spergel. He believes that confirming cosmic
(BICEP) experiment. as sensitive as its predecessor. Meanwhile,
Niemack and his collaborators are designing
an advanced version of ACTPol. Sensitivity,
High and dry angular resolution, frequency coverage and
How come so many CMB telescopes are sky coverage all have a role in the hunt for the
located at one of the most remote and elusive polarisation fingerprint of inflation.
inhospitable places on the planet? To observe “We don’t know the strength of the signal yet.
cosmic microwave radiation, you need to This is exploratory science,” says David
be high and dry. Atmospheric water vapour Spergel of Princeton University.
absorbs microwaves – the same principle that With so much at stake, many teams are on
makes a cup of water in your microwave oven the same treasure hunt. The Planck mission,
hot. As a result, you can’t observe the CMB at for instance, has been mapping the CMB in
sea level: there’s just too much water-laden unprecedented detail since its launch in 2009.
atmosphere above your telescope. And even on In March this year, the team published the
a high mountaintop, you need really dry air. most detailed maps ever made of the CMB
The South Pole is at an altitude of 2830 metres across the entire sky. They are still analysing
and the air is extremely dry, a fact evident to measurements from the satellite’s
every visitor. At times I find it hard to breathe, polarimeters. “We plan to publish our first The Polarbear
and climbing a flight of stairs is a difficulty. By polarimetry data about a year from now,” says experiment in Chile is
the end of the day, my lips feel like parchment. project scientist Jan Tauber of the European almost 5200 metres up
10-40
10-20
UNIVERSE
TRANSPARENT
Electrons and protons
10-10 combine to create
hydrogen, allowing
light to propagate
Time since big bang 1
(seconds)
1010
“While a wind chill of -40 °C inflation through CMB polarisation will be to point the 1.5-metre telescope during its
deserving of a physics Nobel prize. flight, but the effect on the final results is yet
is considered balmy by And who knows, the measurements may to be determined.
residents of the South Pole already have been collected – if not by SPTPol Witnessing how scientists like Benson leave
or Planck, then by BICEP-2 or EBEX. “We plan their comfortable homes for months on end
station, my tears freeze” to publish preliminary results this year,” to live a spartan life at the bottom of the world
says Jamie Bock, who is on the BICEP-2 team, makes you realise how serious they are about
“but we’re still analysing three years of more the quest for a firm proof of inflation. There’s
powerful data.” Analysis involves calibration, no guarantee of success. If the primordial
understanding exactly how the instrument waves are not strong enough, the telltale
processes signals and noise, and investigating polarisation pattern “may never be discovered”,
systematic errors. “It’s not easy,” says Bock, says Carlstrom. Which is not to say that
“you have to worry about everything.” inflation did not occur, he adds. “Based on
Bock claims that the sensitivity of BICEP-2 polarisation measurements, you will never
has got to “interesting levels”. But he won’t be be able to refute inflation.”
drawn on whether the team has found any Cosmologists aren’t disheartened by such
imprint of inflation yet: “I can’t say, and if I a prospect. Even seeing nothing at a certain
could, I couldn’t tell you.” level will enable them to rule out a broad
At the moment, the field is wide open. class of different inflationary models. “That’s
“We don’t know the level at which primordial progress,” says Spergel. n
gravitational waves produce CMB polarisation,”
says Shaul Hanany who leads the EBEX team, Govert Schilling is an astronomy writer based in
polarbear telescope
“so we also don’t know who will be the first Amersfoort, the Netherlands. He spent a week in
to detect the signal. But a detection might Antarctica and the South Pole in December 2012 as
come within the next two years or so.” EBEX a selected media visitor of the US National Science
suffered a glitch in one of the motors used Foundation’s Antarctic Program
F
AMILY lore has it that my wife’s Yet this July, many are anticipating big have become free of instruments, so the
grandmother Cleo once had a problem things from a device made by Leap Motion, a gestures that were always there now emerge
with a mouse. When she first sat down to company based in San Francisco. It will launch into the daylight,” says Jacob Wobbrock,
learn how to use a computer, her four sons a $70 box that can be plugged into most a human-computer interaction researcher
crowded around, peppering her with advice. computers, with the ability to track ultra-fine at the University of Washington in Seattle.
“Move the pointer to the left,” one said. She hand and finger movements. The company “There is no question that a gesture
moved the mouse to the left. “Now move it to has not disclosed exactly how it works, but by vocabulary of sorts will enter further into the
the right.” No problem. “Now move the using a combination of infrared and optical psyche of today’s and future computer users.”
pointer up.” Cleo lifted the mouse off the table, cameras with clever software, the Leap can So what kinds of 3D gestures might we pick
surprised that the cursor refused to follow. detect gestures to a resolution of less than a up in the next few years? After all, the reverse-
It sounds silly, but her instinct was natural. millimetre, inside a half-metre-cubed region pinch gesture for touchscreens had to be
To make our computers understand us, we’ve of air. Leap Motion’s app store called Airspace learned – Apple even patented the move (see
had to squish our intuitive body movements will launch at the same time, with a host of “Patently absurd?”, page 43) – and if you
into the two-dimensional plane of the mouse gesture-controlled software ranging from demonstrated the movement to somebody
or touchscreen. That’s about to change. music to painting programs. only a decade ago, they would have had no
From public kiosks to your living room, idea what it meant. Might there be similar
this year everyday computers will begin to hand movements that we will use to trigger
understand our gestural vocabulary with Read the signals specific commands?
unprecedented precision, right down to ultra- Many think that it won’t be long before high- The Leap comes equipped with the ability to
fine finger movements. How will this change precision gesture detection can span entire recognise a few basic gestures like “key tap”, a
the way we interact with the digital world? rooms. For example, Jan Zizka and Alex Olwal single-finger tapping movement which might
Some advocates claim the mouse and of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s be used to bring up a keyboard on screen, for
keyboard will become obsolete. That’s just Media Lab have developed SpeckleSense, instance. And independent app developers are
hype. Gestural computing’s more interesting a device that uses laser-speckle – subtle training it to recognise their own gestures,
impact will be how it changes us – from the patterns caused by light waves of the same such as “thumbs-up”, which some have used
new language of fist bumps, finger shapes and frequency interfering with one another – to as a command to “like” a Facebook post.
hand signals we may be asked to learn, to an track motion with far greater precision and More clues about our future body language
affliction called “gorilla arm”. In turn, our range than the likes of Kinect. can be found from looking at gesture-
behaviour will shape the technology’s All of a sudden, then, the fidelity of gestural recognition prototypes developed in the
evolution. It’s time to wave goodbye to our language that computers can understand is lab over the past few years. Designers have
old notions of how we navigate digital space. poised to expand significantly. “The hands come up with a range of hand and arm >
The first computers able to recognise
human gestures emerged in the 1970s, when
researchers equipped people with batons or
wearable accelerometers. The crude resolution
of these technologies stopped them taking
off. Still, limited bodily gestures in two
dimensions were incorporated into personal
computers: using a mouse to drag a scroll bar
or double-click on a desktop icon required a
physical motion with the hand and arm,
rather than typing code. Multi-touch screens
added extra moves to our gestural lexicon: we
learned that spreading apart a pinched finger
and thumb on a screen, for example, zoomed
into a photo or a map.
Until very recently, however, most hand
WS photography/flickr/getty
It’s hard to believe that waving our the screen zooms in on an image.
arms, hands or fingers could spark Attempts to patent 2D gestures
heated patent litigation, but if the ultimately failed. Apple recently
history of the two-dimensional took Samsung to court over the
gestures on touchscreens is any latter’s use of the pinch-to-zoom and
precedent, such a fate awaits 3D swipe-to-unlock movements. In the
gesture interfaces, too. end, the US Patent and Trademark
A battle over 2D gestures began Office ruled Apple’s patents invalid
after a Silicon Valley party in the on the grounds that earlier
early 2000s, when Apple’s CEO Steve inventions used the ideas.
Jobs got riled by a Microsoft engineer An optimist might think that this
boasting about its stylus-controlled would discourage a similar landgrab
touchscreen Tablet PC. Jobs ordered over 3D gestures. Alas, it hasn’t.
his engineers to build their own Microsoft holds patents for Kinect
touch interface, but he was adamant that cover flicks of the hand to scroll
that it would use only hand gestures. on screen, or gestures that call up a
They came up with specific moves search box. And Intellectual Ventures
like pinch-to-zoom, tap-to-zoom of Bellevue, Washington, has filed
and swipe-to-unlock – which Apple a patent on a way to control a
quickly filed patents to protect. television that includes a raised
This sparked a gestural-patent “flat-hand” gesture to get its
landgrab. For instance, Google attention. The company is notorious
applied for a patent on a text- for aggressively protecting its
recognition gesture involving intellectual property too.
underlining words in a picture with a Litigation that tied the tech
swipe, while Nokia’s gesture patent industry in knots for the past few
applications included circular or oval years looks set to be repeated and,
swipes, with the size of the circle or as usual, the only winners will be
oval dictating the degree to which the lawyers. Paul Marks
Another human constraint that will shape to use a remote control to change slides, not So rather than killing off the keyboard or
the development of our gestural vocabularies gestures, because it was distracting. They did, mouse – which remain hard to beat for some
is the physicality required. The movements however, approve of gestures to interact with tasks – the gestures that catch on will become
will have to be something that people can do the slide content itself – pointing at a diagram, incorporated into the multifaceted language
repeatedly, over long chunks of time. for example – possibly because these gestures we use to communicate with computers.
In the early days of human-computer aren’t too removed from movements that Writing an essay? Use a keyboard. Moulding
interaction using touchscreens, researchers presenters already make, Fourney suggests. an object for your 3D printer, or sorting
identified an affliction that they dubbed Another factor shaping our nascent gestural through files? Fingers and hands may be
“gorilla arm” – in which one’s arm feels heavy vocabulary will be that we tend to look silly better. Human-computer interaction
after waving it about for too long. It is no waving our hands around in the air. One researchers nowadays call this “multi-modal”
problem for phones or tablets sitting on your sociological study of how families use Kinect interaction. “When a new mode of interaction
lap, but the ache soon strikes for any device games in the home, by Richard Harper and comes to life, it doesn’t kill off the other ones.
that requires you to reach out the arms Helena Mentis of Microsoft Research in It extends the possibilities, makes new
continually – a wall-mounted screen, for Cambridge, UK, suggests that the fun comes interactions possible,” says Benko.
instance. Gestural systems that require from participants laughing at one another as The true impact of gestural computing,
expressive hand movements in the air, then, then, will be that it adds a channel of
are likely to cause a lot more gorilla arms, so communication we’ve never been able to use
more subtle moves may well come to rule.
”Some gestures are not only before. We have always had myriad ways to
The same physicality that can make tiring but inappropriate. convey meaning to fellow human beings – be
gestures tiring can also make them
inappropriate in certain settings. For example,
We tend to look silly waving it voice, text or body language – but until now,
our computers have been blind to many of
in a 2010 experiment conducted by Adam our hands around in the air” these cues. When Grandma Cleo lifted her
Fourney at the University of Waterloo, in mouse off the desk, it made perfect sense.
Ontario, Canada, presenters used a gesture- they contort their bodies. While technology If she had lived to see it, she may well have
based slide-show system in a classroom for has changed social norms before, having to appreciated this moment in time in which
two weeks. They could use gestures both to perform a similar dance routine might not machines are finally coming to understand
navigate back and forth through the slides, be so desirable in settings like the workplace. our language, instead of us struggling to
and interact with slide content by, for “It would force us to use our bodies like a understand theirs. n
example, zooming into figures, and ballerina uses hers. With exceptional control,
highlighting and expanding bullet points. strength and discipline,” says Harper. “That MacGregor Campbell is a New Scientist consultant
Yet students said they preferred the presenters would be exhausting to the spirit.” based in Portland, Oregon
discovers Fred Pearce, security cordons in the Gulf state of Qatar – and
the unlikely setting for a remarkable oasis.
kilometres of parched coastal desert into
fertile farms. The head of the project,
but at a price... The heart of this oasis is a greenhouse Norwegian biologist Joakim Hauge, has an
full of cucumbers. But this is no ordinary even bigger dream. He wants to do nothing
greenhouse: it is delightfully cool inside, less than revegetate the desert. And the claim
despite the desert heat. Surrounding it are a isn’t as crazy as it might sound.
series of small garden plots growing desert The heart of this prototype is the
plants, each walled in by what look like greenhouse. Worldwide, greenhouses are an
cardboard hedges. Their effect is startling. ever more popular way to grow high-value
When I step downwind of a hedge, the air vegetables and flowers. In their controlled
temperature instantly drops, as if I have set environment, it is possible to get much
foot in front of a powerful air conditioner. higher yields than outdoors, making up for
And next to the plots is an array of mirrors for the higher costs. But with their insatiable
concentrating the power of the desert sun. thirst for water and need for heating in winter,
The most remarkable thing about this little most greenhouses are not very green.
Just add
seawater
MICHAEL POLIZA/NGS
Farming algae
(QAFCO), has built a network of pipes to deliver Keeping the greenhouse cool and humid
seawater for cooling, and the greenhouse taps reduces the plants’ need for fresh water, but it Solar mirrors to
power desalinator Buildings and
into that supply. still has to come from somewhere. The answer and other machinery equipment
Inside, in the cool created by the wet again is seawater. A concentrated solar power
production
cardboard, I met Stephen Clarkson, who grew system provides the heat and electricity
Salt
cucumbers in the UK for 40 years before needed to desalinate seawater for irrigation,
A briny business
A coastal greenhouse would make maximum use of seawater – for cooling, for growing algae and salt-tolerant plants,
as well as to provide fresh water for irrigation
Salt water
Fresh water
SEAWATER
Salinity
~3.5%
SOLAR
DESALINATOR
Fresh water
for irrigation
ALGAL SALT-
PONDS TOLERANT
EVAPORATORS PLANTS
Cooling for
greenhouse Biomass
harvested for
biofuel
GREENHOUSE or fodder
For growing
cash crops Salinity
~10% Evaporation
Salinity Salinity of brine to
OUTDOOR PLOTS ~10% ~10% produce salt
Revive desert
ecosystems SALT
PONDS
EVAPORATORS
Cooling for outdoor plots
Salinity
~30%
from the Atacama desert of northern Chile for decades about how desalination could be
to California and North Africa, where some the solution to producing more crops at a time
coastal aquifers have already been pumped of growing water shortages. With the seawater
dry. In the Egyptian desert, the 19,000-square- greenhouse, there might at last be a practical
kilometre Qattara depression could be way to do so. n
exploited. It is around 100 kilometres from
the coast, but could receive seawater by Fred Pearce is a consultant for New Scientist based
gravity as it is below sea level. in London
conjured up for us wild places and singular species – a tree with no By contrast, city pigeons, it is
Ginkgo: The tree that time forgot by
astonishing creatures, but for relatives, unique leaves, and probably safe to say, are more
Peter Crane, Yale University Press, £25
every reader inspired to get closer extraordinary charisma – is a hated than loved. When Ken
The Global Pigeon by Colin Jerolmack,
to nature in some way, there are survivor from a prehistoric world. Livingstone became Mayor of
University of Chicago Press, $27.50
thousands who simply enjoy the Once ginkgo and its kin grew all London in 2000, one of his first
Looking for the Goshawk by Conor
read. Nature, as publishers and over the world. But as the climate moves was to try to rid Trafalgar
Mark Jameson, Bloomsbury, £18.99
TV executives know, makes great cooled 100 million years ago, they Square of what he called “rats
NATURE writing is being touted entertainment. retreated until eventually a single with wings”. The mayor of Venice
as a new literary genre for new So if we do want to inspire species hung on in China, clinging followed suit, taking on the
times. Most of us live in towns a deeper, more constructive to stream-side slopes. It is fitting, pigeons – and sellers of pigeon
and cities but we are all keen relationship with nature, do we then, that a fossil expert tells the food – of Piazza San Marco,
naturalists now – at least by proxy. know how? For me, the key is to story of how this tenacious tree a place as famous for its birds
The more remote our physical instil a sense of wonder. escaped the fate of its relatives, as its historic buildings and
relationship with the natural exorbitantly priced cafes. Yet look
world, the greater our appetite to up to the rooftops in many of the
experience it through other eyes: world’s great cities and you will
fed properly, even the most city- find a league of pigeon lovers –
bound will reconnect with nature. men (almost without exception)
That, at least, is the theory. who tend and fly pigeons from
And there is a growing number rooftop coops.
of publications to meet this Colin Jerolmack almost
“demand”: wilderness journals, certainly does not consider The
species “biographies”, and year- Global Pigeon a study of nature.
Bernhard Schmerl/FLPA
Resolution of
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that’s gone since I purchased the professors Carmen Reinhart and Ken heat and charge your electronic year (22/29 December 2012).
liquid oxygen supplement from Rogoff, published in their seminal devices using only renewable He asked: “What do you mend
the knowledgeable people at paper “Growth in a Time of Debt”. biomass such as twigs, pine cones, them with?”
wood pellets and other easily Louis Altman replies: “With a
obtainable flammable materials,” compass needle.”
The screenshot Hugh Lawton sent us shows according to the website selling
that his download of the 39.5 megabyte the stove (bit.ly/gadgetcook).
Rob is disappointed that the You can send stories to Feedback by
MacKeeper program got to “4,100% complete” product description doesn’t email at [email protected].
before he stopped watching it and did include any recipes. He would Please include your home address.
particularly like to know how to This week’s and past Feedbacks can
something else knock up a tasty SatNav soup. be seen on our website.
Hot in the hay n If you arrive at the railway n If your run gets you to the the Cairngorm mountains, has
station at some random time, station 3 minutes earlier, then one been replaced by slightly hard
I have always assumed that the regardless of how fast you day in 10 you will get to work half water which comes from an
belief that haystacks can burst travelled to the station, you an hour earlier. So your wife is underground borehole. Our kettle
into flames spontaneously was a will have to wait an average of wrong. But perhaps she meant and our hot water tanks now pop
convenient myth to cover for careless 15 minutes and a maximum of that the average waiting time at and crackle loudly when the water
farm workers having a crafty 30 minutes for the next train. the station will be unaffected. is heating, rather than offering
cigarette break while forgetting This is true: nine days out of 10 just a gentle hiss as before. Can
their surroundings, but a friend “If you don’t know the time you will wait 3 minutes longer, anybody explain the reason for
insists that it can happen. Surely of the next train, running exactly balancing the one day in this odd effect when we are
the only way hay can warm up to the station won’t change 10 that you save 27 minutes. heating water with a higher
significantly is if it is wet and your average waiting time” None of this explains the mineral content?
bacteria begin to heat the stack as fundamental question underlying John Poyner
part of the process of biodegradation. So running will not make any this paradox: why not look at the Nethybridge, Highlands, UK
But I’d be amazed if this could difference to your average waiting train timetable? If you are
generate temperatures hotter than time at the station. uncomfortable with smartphone Inside out
about 40 ºC. So how else could However, if you arrive 1 minute apps, timetables still exist in Mammals are supposed to have
ignition take place? (Continued) earlier by running than by old-fashioned paper form. testes outside the abdomen
walking then on one trip in 30 you Ian Gent and Judith Underwood because their fertility would be
n Insurance companies in the will catch a train that you would Cupar, Fife, UK impaired if they were kept inside
18th century insured farmers’ have missed if you had walked, at body temperature. But birds
haystacks in England, Scotland and therefore arriving at your Not so plain thinking have internal testes, despite
Wales, so they clearly believed fire destination 30 minutes earlier. having a higher body temperature.
was possible. A standard phrase On the other 29 out of 30 times The editor writes… An aircraft Why and how did birds evolve in
in the policies reads: “Free from that you don’t catch an earlier must keep up a certain airspeed this way when mammals did not?
loss on such hay or corn as shall train, you will have to wait to stop it stalling. But when flying And why doesn’t this affect the
be destroyed or damaged by its 1 minute longer on the platform into a headwind, it can reduce its birds’ fertility?
natural heat.” This clause appears than if you had just walked there. ground speed without fear of Malcolm Halford
hundreds of times in the policies On these occasions the trip will falling. These facts were stressed Melton Mowbray,
of Sun Fire Office in London. probably seem longer, although by Clive Teale in a correction to Leicestershire, UK
Derek Morris the actual door-to-door time our question Plane Thinking on
By email, no address supplied remains unchanged. 23 March. The correspondent he Colour that stings
You save 30 minutes once in was correcting, Len Winokur, had I recently made nettle wine using
Train brain drain 30 trips, so on average the 1 minute actually made the same point, but an old recipe. Nettles (genus
saved by running saves 1 minute his answer was sent off course by Urtica) are green, yet when
If I don’t know the time of the next door-to-door. If you save more the word-traffic controller at the they were boiled, as the recipe
half-hourly train to depart from my than 1 minute by running, you’ve Last Word. Apologies to Len for suggested, the resulting liquid
local station, is there any point in got a better chance of catching the the error. was red. Why? Was this a property
running to the station? My wife tells train and saving 30 minutes more of the plants or of the aluminium
me it won’t make any difference to often. The average time saved This week’s pan, or some residue in the
whether I catch the next train or always matches the time saved questions apparently clean pan? Nothing
not, but I insist it will. I must admit, by running. else, such as wine-making yeast,
my journey time door-to-door does Brian Horton Hard question had been added at that stage.
not seem to be affected by the West Launceston, Tasmania, Recently our lovely soft water, Frances Cottingham
speed of my approach to the station. Australia which came from a loch high in Isle of Wight, UK
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