New Scientist 25 May 2013

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ALIEN HUNTERS CLOSE IN

Rewriting the equation for life in the universe

WEEKLY 25 May 2013

Old dog
new tricks
You never lose the ability
to learn like a child

MULTIVERSAL MINDS
String theory versus the space brains
I S S£3.70
No2918 N 0 US/CAN$5.95
262-4079
THE HEAT IS OFF POINT AND CLICK FILMING MEMORIES 2 1
A second chance to Why computers must Are fish really all
tackle climate change learn sign language that forgetful?
News, ideas and innovation www.newscientist.com The best jobs in science 9 770262 407237
Contents Volume 218 No 2918

This issue online


newscientist.com/issue/2918

News News
4 UPFRONT

6 Tornado rips through Oklahoma. Reprieve


for pollinators. Google’s quantum adventure.
One in five US kids has mental health disorder
Alien hunters 6 THIS WEEK
close in A second chance to save the climate.
Fish memories filmed in action. Vitamin B
Rewriting the may slow Alzheimer’s onset. Banishing
equation for life disembodied consciousness in space.
in the universe Suicidal behaviour: a treatable disease?
16 IN BRIEF
Jon Hicks/Corbis

Time-lapse spots faulty embryos before IVF.


Zap the brain to improve mental arithmetic.
Malaria parasite gives mozzies super-sense.
Tides shoving the moon away

On the cover Technology


19 Apps show promise of Google Glass. Drones

32 6 Alien hunters close in


Rewriting ET’s equation
12 Multiversal minds
give flood warning. Games take the pain out
of the train. A clean break for wave power?

Old dog, String theory versus the


Aperture
space brains
new tricks 8 The heat is off 24 The tiger’s cry for help

You never lose A second chance to


the ability to tackle climate change Opinion
40 Point and click
learn like a child 26 Drowning in numbers Add a pinch of salt
Talking to computers
to sea level predictions, says Michael Le Page
10 Filming memories
27 One minute with… Ralph Keeling Why
Are fish really forgetful?
latest CO2 measurements are so significant
Cover image
Adam Nickel
28 Moon miner Internet entrepreneur Naveen
Jain explains his lofty ambitions
30 LETTERS Pet detectives. Reality check

Features Features

44 32 Old dog, new tricks (see above left)


36 Pole position Going to the ends of the
Earth to witness the birth of the universe
Just add 40 Point and click Why computers must
seawater learn sign language
44 Just add seawater (see left)
Deserts really can
become fertile CultureLab
oases, if you don’t 48 Call of the wild How far do tales of the
MICHAEL POLIZA/NGS

mind the cost natural world inspire us to engage with it?

Regulars
3 Editorial The challenges wearable
computing faces are social, not technological
Coming next week… 30 ENIGMA
60 Feedback Drinking liquid oxygen
Your inner voice 61 The Last Word Hot in the hay
Deciphering the language of human thought 50 Jobs & careers

Urban mining
There’s treasure under them thar streets

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 1


British industry
Powered by natural gas
Gas production from the Norwegian Continental Shelf can supply British industry with
reliable, cost-efficient energy for decades to come – and resources are available today.
There’s never been a better time for good ideas.

Explore for yourself at neversatisfied.statoil.com


EDITORIAL

LOCATIONS
UK
Unwearable computing?
Lacon House, 84 Theobald’s Road,
London WC1X 8NS
Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1200 
Unobtrusive computers pose social, not technological, challenges
Fax +44 (0) 20 7611 1250
Australia WHEN did you last look at your That’s not to say the transition The social concerns are harder
Tower 2, 475 Victoria Avenue,
Chatswood, NSW 2067 phone? If you own a smartphone, will go smoothly. Doubts have to overcome. Wearable computers
Tel +61 2 9422 8559  it was probably just a short
Fax +61 2 9422 8552
been raised about Glass’s can interfere with human
USA
time ago. A glance around any implications for privacy, its less interactions in unsettling ways.
225 Wyman Street, commuter train will confirm than handsome looks, hefty price Your companion may not like the
Waltham, MA 02451
Tel +1 781 734 8770  how captivated many of us are tag and restricted functionality. idea that you’re surreptitiously
Fax +1 720 356 9217 by our digital companions. Glass may turn out to be too checking your messages – or their
201 Mission Street, 26th Floor, So much so that it’s supposedly bleeding-edge for any but the
San Francisco, CA 94105
background – over lunch. This
Tel +1 415 908 3348  taking a toll on our bodies: all earliest of early adopters. That might be considered impolite, or
Fax +1 415 704 3125
this looking down is causing has happened to Google before: even illegal: covertly recording a
our jowls to grow flabby and our conversation, for example, may
Subscription Service
For our latest subscription offers, visit jawlines to droop – what cosmetic “Google Glass may turn out fall foul of European privacy laws.
newscientist.com/subscribe surgeons have opportunistically to be too bleeding-edge It’s easy to overstate such
Customer and subscription services dubbed “smartphone face”. for any but the earliest of objections, however. We already
are also available by:
Telephone +44 (0) 844 543 80 70
You could hardly ask for a better early adopters” have social codes governing the
Email [email protected] incentive to adopt Google’s use of both sunglasses and
Web newscientist.com/subscribe hands-free computer, Glass. Its its now-defunct messaging tool smartphones, as well as ingrained
Post New Scientist, Rockwood House,
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smart-specs design lets you keep Wave was so revolutionary that attitudes towards those who flout
West Sussex RH16 3DH up to date – and update others – hardly anyone understood how such rules – like the mild scorn
One year subscription (51 issues) without glancing at your phone. it was supposed to work. directed at celebrities who keep
UK £150 Glass is just one of several Neither cost nor design factors their dark glasses on at all times.
cONTACTS
technologies that will allow us will stop the march of wearable It is easy to imagine using your
Contact us to interact with computers more computing for long. The wearable computer while
newscientist.com/contact
naturally in the near future. emergence of apps from third- working, but ostentatiously
Who’s who
newscientist.com/people Machines that can understand party developers should help allay removing it as a mark of civility
General & media enquiries our speech and gestures are also concerns about Glass’s limited when socialising.
Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 becoming an everyday reality feature set (see page 19), just as the Ubicomp may let us interact
[email protected]
Editorial
(see page 40). Rather than proliferation of apps drove the more naturally with technology,
Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 checking in with our phones, uptake of smartphones. If Google but it can’t fix everything. (Its
[email protected]
[email protected]
omnipresent computers will doesn’t crack it first time round, developers are already warning
[email protected] check in on us. This is the next step it may get there on its second that gestural computing has its
Picture desk in the evolution that has already try – as it did with the smartphone own physical cost: “gorilla arm”.)
Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1268
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taken us from mainframes to market. And if Google can’t make Careful design will be critical.
Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1291 desktops to tablets. It seems the an appealing device, someone Otherwise, ironically, the more
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age of ubiquitous computing, or else probably will – albeit perhaps invisible computers get, the more
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UK Tel +44 (0) 20 8652 4444 “ubicomp”, is upon us. taking a very different approach. intrusive they may become. n
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UK Newsstand
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Scribbling on the sky


Newstrade distributed by Marketforce
UK Ltd, The Blue Fin Building,
110 Southwark St, London SE1 OSU
Syndication
Tribune Media Services International “KEPLER was my North, my South, a piece of orbital machinery to be Scientists, too, have turned
Tel +44 (0) 20 7588 7588
my East and West… I thought commemorated in verse – even a to poetry before – not least the
Kepler would last forever: I was telescope whose legacy promises human Johannes Kepler. The
wrong.” So lamented astronomer huge advances in answering one Rudolphine Tables, a ground-
Geoff Marcy on discovering that of the most important questions breaking astronomical catalogue
the space telescope might have of our time (see page 6). prepared by Kepler from data
© 2013 Reed Business spotted its last exoplanet. But perhaps it should be. Poets gathered by the deceased Tycho
Information Ltd, England
Marcy’s impassioned pastiche have often taken inspiration Brahe, begins with a fine
New Scientist is published weekly
by Reed Business Information Ltd. of W. H. Auden’s Funeral Blues was from their contemplation of the illustration – and a lengthy poem.
ISSN 0262 4079. much remarked on after NASA’s universe, after all, and Kepler is So Marcy’s poem actually respects
Registered at the Post Office as a
newspaper and printed in England
announcement of Kepler’s abrupt just a particularly sophisticated a venerable tradition. Long may
by Polestar (Colchester) demise. It is unusual, after all, for form of such contemplation. it continue. n

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 3


UPFRONT

Paul Hellstern/AP/PA
Anatomy of tornado’s toll
THE tornado that ripped through remained grounded for 3.5 hours.
Moore, a suburb of Oklahoma City, on In addition, many houses in
Monday was not a record-breaker in Oklahoma lack storm shelters. “It’s
terms of its size, strength or duration. significantly cheaper to lay a slab of
So why was it so devastating? concrete and build a house than it is to
Despite not topping the charts, the dig a basement,” says David Schultz of
tornado scored highly on all three the University of Manchester, UK.
factors. It was roughly 3 kilometres That’s risky but understandable, he
across. The largest tornado ever says. Although Oklahoma sits smack
recorded hit Hallam, Nebraska, in in the middle of tornado alley,
2004, and was about 4 kilometres in historical records show that any given
diameter. In terms of strength, the patch of land will be struck by a
US National Weather Service says the tornado of EF-2 or greater only about
tornado measured at least 4 on the once every 1000 years.
Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, with winds As New Scientist went to press, the
of 270 to 320 kilometres an hour, just death toll from the Moore twister
short of the top rating of EF-5. And stood at 24. Jeff Masters of Weather
the twister stayed on the ground for Underground estimates that the
40 minutes. Most last just a few damage could rival the most costly
minutes; the longest on record was tornado ever, the $2.8 billion tornado
the Tri-State Tornado in 1925, which that hit Joplin, Missouri, in 2011.
–Home wrecker–

Quantum Google Machine learning involves


training a computer to recognise
Kids aren’t all right deficit hyperactivity disorder
(ADHD) accounted for the biggest
WHERE Google goes, others patterns in data, and is central to WHAT a shocking figure. As many share (6.8 per cent), followed by
follow. So now that the search many algorithms that drive as one in five children aged 3 to 17 behavioural problems, anxiety
giant has bought a quantum Google’s services. in the US experiences a mental and depression.
computer, are these devices about NASA will house Google’s health disorder each year, says a Over-diagnosing in the US
to transform our lives? Maybe, but D-Wave Two and will also be able new report from the Centers for could be at work, but William Graf
questions remain over whether to access it. But is the unit really a Disease Control and Prevention of the Yale University School of
the new computer would beat quantum computer? It’s still not (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia. Medicine cites another reason for
ordinary ones in like-on-like tests. clear whether the technique it Using data from 11 ongoing the numbers appearing high: the
The quantum computer is made uses, adiabatic quantum federal epidemiological surveys, report’s broad definition of mental
by D-Wave of Burnaby, Canada – computing, is the real deal. the agency found that in recent health disorders. It includes tics,
the only company that sells them. In one set of recent tests, the years, between 13 and 20 per cent for example, alongside standard
In 2011, D-Wave made its first sale, D-Wave One was slower than a of US children have been conditions. “If you add it all up,
to aerospace giant Lockheed conventional computer. In diagnosed with a mental health one in five is not unreasonable,”
Martin, which bought the early another, the D-Wave Two solved disorder each year. Attention says Graf.
D-Wave One model. Last week’s some problems 3600 times faster,
sale of the newer D-Wave Two to
Google is the first to a firm that
but this might have been because
the ordinary computer was using
Is MERS on the loose?
provides computing services algorithms that had not been “LET’S hope this bug doesn’t make that this means there could be many
directly to the public. optimised for the task, says Scott it to Mecca.” The bug in question is mild, unrecognised cases spreading
Aaronson of the Massachusetts MERS, the coronavirus that emerged the virus in the general population.
“Google is a very wealthy Institute of Technology. He is a last year in the Arabian Peninsula. This week Tunisia’s health ministry
company, and they do have long-standing D-Wave critic, and Ron Fouchier of Erasmus Medical announced that a 66-year-old man
money to throw around on Google’s move has not changed Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, had died and his two sons were ill
things that might be fun” his view. “Google is a very wealthy has good reason to be concerned. with MERS after returning from Saudi
company, and they do have money The virus has so far infected more Arabia and Qatar. They’d had no
“We believe quantum to throw around on things that than 40 people, some of whom contact with known cases.
computing may help solve some just might be fun to play with.” haven’t apparently been in contact There are fears that pilgrimages
of the most challenging computer The D-Wave Two’s price tag isn’t with an infected person or animal. to Saudi Arabia, scheduled for July
science problems, particularly in public, but Lockheed Martin is In an epidemiological analysis, the and October, could spread any virus
machine learning,” wrote Google’s thought to have paid about World Health Organization concludes carried in the population.
Hartmut Neven in a blog post. $10 million for D-Wave One.

4 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


For daily news stories, visit newscientist.com/news
60 Seconds

trackingpoint
Hot in the city Causing a stink
Doctors hoping to perform a faecal
THE Big Apple is cooking: climate
transplant – replenishing a gut with
change will increase the number
healthy bacteria to treat infection
of temperature-related deaths
and even Parkinson’s – must apply to
within decades.
the US Food and Drug Administration
for an “investigational new drug
“New York is taking action application”. This will improve
to protect its citizens from “Quote to go in here over safety, but some are grumbling over
extreme heat by planting four lines range left like the 30-day lag this imposes on
trees and painting roofs” this Quote to go in her treatment.
like this xxxxx”
A warmer climate means more
extremely hot days in summer,
Second sight
and fewer extremely cold days in A man blinded by the degeneration
winter, leaving people more of his retinal cells has had his sight
vulnerable in summer. restored in one eye after receiving
Radley Horton of Columbia –Too lethal for comfort?– a stem cell treatment. Human
University in New York has now embryonic stem cells were turned
into retinal pigment epithelial cells
calculated the net effect. He Sniping made easy University in Cincinnati, Ohio.
and then transplanted into his
matched daily temperature data But Trevor Burrus, a specialist
for Manhattan with death rates BULLSEYE, again. A new “self- in gun regulation at the Cato retina, as part of a trial by Advanced
between 1982 and 1999, then used aiming” rifle can help even a Institute, a think tank in Cell Technology in Marlborough,
temperature forecasts to estimate novice shooter hit targets up to Washington DC, says it would be Massachusetts.
future death rates. In all his 16 900 metres away. But critics are odd to stop people buying a rifle
models, temperature-related already warning of the potential because of its accuracy. “There is Critternaut casualties
deaths increased almost consequences of allowing anyone no reason to believe that this The space zoo has landed but many
immediately (Nature Climate to become a deadly sharpshooter. technology will be used less of the critternauts are dead. Russia’s
Change, doi.org/mkc). The $22,000 weapon, a responsibly, especially with the Bion-M1 spacecraft took a range of
New York is already taking precision guided firearm, is made exorbitant price tag,” he says. animals into orbit to probe the
action to protect its citizens from by TrackingPoint, based in Austin, biological effects of space travel.
extreme heat, as part of a broader Texas. It includes a computer that
initiative called PlaNYC that aims decides the best moment to fire,
Bees buzz back But when it returned to Earth after a
month in orbit, most of the mice and
to protect the city from climate compensating for factors like IT’S a rare piece of good news all of the gerbils had perished. The
change. The city is planting extra for pollinators. In Europe, wild geckos and snails survived but will
trees, painting roofs white and “The rifle’s computer insects and plants are bouncing be euthanised for study purposes.
creating “cooling centres” where compensates for factors back after decades of decline.
people can escape the worst of the like wind speed, arm shake The years between 1950 and Fukushima floods
heat. Many other mid-latitude and the bullet’s slight dip” 1989 saw drastic decreases in the
It’s the biggest remaining problem
cities will need to adapt, says range of species in Belgium, the
at Fukushima: each day, 400 tonnes
Horton. “Efforts under way in New wind speed, arm shake and the UK and the Netherlands. But since
of groundwater flood Japan’s
York City are a valuable example.” bullet’s slight dip due to gravity. 1990, lost or new species have
stricken nuclear plant. Juan Carlos
When the beam from the gun’s appeared, indicating that for
Lentijo of the International Atomic
ALAA BADARNEH/epa/Corbis

laser illuminates the intended many, the decline has halted.


Energy Agency, who recently
target, the user presses a button The diversity of bumble bee
inspected the site, suggests
to make the rifle lock on to it. An species had tumbled by 30 per
pumping the groundwater out to
algorithm then tracks the target cent, but it has now stabilised in
sea before it leaks into the plant.
as it moves, keeping the laser Belgium and the Netherlands, and
beam “painted” on the same slowed to a 10 per cent decline in
point. It also increases the the UK between 1990 and 2009.
Shot in space
pressure required to pull the The range of solitary bee species Commercial spaceflight could be a
trigger, reducing it only when a rose over the same period, and boon to Hollywood. Upcoming sci-fi
perfect shot is expected – so the hoverfly and wild plant species flick Newcomers will be shot aboard
user fires at the right instant. stopped declining (Ecology XCOR Aerospace’s Lynx spacecraft,
With such weapons in Letters, DOI: 10.1111/ele.1 2121). according to The Hollywood
circulation, “there will be a lot of It could be a sign that farming Reporter. Though XCOR plans to
time and money spent figuring is becoming less intensive, says offer tourist trips to sub-orbital
out how to secure any public co-author Bill Kunin of the space, it has yet to launch the Lynx.
-Hotbed for viruses– area”, says Matthew Lang at Xavier University of Leeds, UK.

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 5


THIS WEEK
Jon Hicks/Corbis

–Anyone out there?–

Alien hunting for


But the past two decades have Drake equation was a hatchet, the
seen exoplanets pop up like weeds, new Seager equation is a scalpel.
particularly in the last few years Seager presented her work this

the 21st century


thanks in large part to the Kepler week at a conference in Cambridge,
space telescope. Launched in Massachusetts, entitled
2009, Kepler has found more than “Exoplanets in the Post-Kepler
130 worlds and detected 3000 or Era”. The timing could not be
so more possibles. The bounty has more prescient. Last week Kepler
The planet-seeking Kepler telescope may be given astronomers the first suffered a surprise hardware
doomed, but the hunt for ET just got a lot sharper proper census of planets in one
region of our galaxy, allowing us “The Kepler mission was
to make estimates of the total revolutionary. It broke
Lisa Grossman The new tool takes the form of population of life-friendly worlds open the piggybank and
an equation. In 1961 astronomer across the Milky Way. rocky planets poured out”
AN ICONIC tool in the search for Frank Drake scribbled his now- With that kind of data in hand,
extraterrestrial life is getting a famous equation for calculating Sara Seager at the Massachusetts failure that knocked out its ability
21st-century reboot – just as our the number of detectable Institute of Technology reckons to see planetary signals clearly. If it
best planet-hunting telescope civilisations in the Milky Way. the Drake equation is ripe for a can’t be fixed, the mission is over.
seems to have died. Though the The Drake equation includes a revamp. Her version narrows “When we talked about the
loss of NASA’s Kepler telescope is number of terms that at the time a few of the original terms to post-Kepler era, we thought
a blow, the reboot could mean we seemed unknowable – including account for our new best bets of that would be three to four years
find signs of life on extrasolar the very existence of planets finding life, based in part on what from now,” co-organiser David
planets within a decade. beyond our solar system. Kepler has revealed. If the original Charbonneau of the Harvard-

6 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


In this section
n A second chance to save the climate, page 8
n Banishing disembodied consciousness in space, page 12
n Apps show promise of Google Glass, page 19

Smithsonian Center for


Kepler’s emergency surgery
Astrophysics said last week.
“We now know the post-Kepler era The Kepler space telescope might The first line of attack is rather team turned it off as a precaution.
probably started two days ago.” be down, but it’s not out – yet. Its low-tech: run the recently stopped After nine months idle, the wheel
But Kepler has collected data engineering team has a few ideas wheel backwards. “Like with any may now be re-lubricated and
for four years, slightly longer than that could revive the mission. stuck wheel you might be familiar functional once again.
the mission’s original goal, and so To see the tiny dips in starlight with on the ground, we could try Another option is to put Kepler’s
far only the first 18 months’ worth that signal a planet crossing in jiggling it back and forth in both sails to the wind. While at work,
have been analysed. That means front of its star, Kepler must keep directions, forcing it through the it had to constantly fight the solar
it may have already gathered an unwavering view of its targets. resistance that’s holding it up,” says wind, the stream of charged
enough information to give alien- It maintained its orientation in Kepler team member Charlie Sobek. particles from the sun that push
hunters a fighting chance. space using three reaction wheels. They could also try restarting the against its solar panels. It may be
The original Drake equation A spare fourth wheel stopped spare that failed in July. That wheel possible to use that pressure in
includes seven terms, which turning last July. One of the was showing unsafe friction levels, place of a lost wheel, allowing
multiplied together give the remaining three failed last week. scraping metal against metal, so the Kepler to soldier on.
number of intelligent alien
civilisations we could hope to
detect (see diagram, below). should have been enough to Kepler’s principal investigator close as 6.5 light years away.
Kepler was supposed to pin down pinpoint Earth-sized planets William Borucki is optimistic that Even better, it will be easier to
two terms: the fraction of stars with years of a similar length. a few Earth twins around sun-like probe these planets for gases
that have planets, and the number After the telescope came online, stars lurk in the existing data. associated with life, because
of those planets that are habitable. the mission team realised that Sun-like stars are not the only tighter orbits mean that more of
To do that, Kepler had been other sun-like stars are more ones that can host habitable the star’s light will filter through
staring unflinchingly at some active than ours, and they planets, though. The Seager
150,000 stars near the bounce around too much in the equation focuses in on red dwarf “Of course I think it’s
constellation Cygnus, looking for telescope’s field of view. To find stars, which are smaller and cooler possible to find signs
periodic changes in brightness enough Earths, they would need than the sun. That makes it easier of life. Why else would
caused by a planet crossing, or seven or eight years of data. to detect rocky planets around I be working so hard?”
transiting, a star’s face as seen It was a relief when the mission them at the right distance for life,
from Earth. This method tells was extended until 2016, and that because the planets have tighter, a planet’s atmosphere on the
us a planet’s size and its rough much more of a blow when the briefer orbits. What’s more, red way to us, picking up telltale
distance from its host star. telescope abruptly failed last week. dwarfs are the most common clues to its composition. Seager’s
Size gives a clue to a planet’s NASA has a few last-ditch ideas for stars in our galaxy: projections goal is to find the fraction of
composition, which tells us reviving the mission (see “Kepler’s based on Kepler data suggest that habitable Earth-sized worlds in
whether it is rocky like Earth or emergency surgery”, above), but the nearest habitable Earth-sized our galactic neighbourhood with
gassy like Neptune. Before Kepler, chances are the telescope is dead. world could orbit a red dwarf as detectable atmospheric
only a few exoplanets had been biosignatures – in other words,
identified as small enough to Rebooting
Rebooting Drake Drake to to find
find alien
alien life
life inhabited worlds. She has already
be rocky, because other search With insights from telescopes such as Kepler, astronomer Sara Seager has
With
put the number of inhabited
With insights
insights from
from telescopes
telescopes such
such as
as Kepler,
Kepler, astronomer
astronomer Sara
Sara Seager
Seager has
has
methods were better suited to rebooted the famous 1961 Drake equation for estimating the number of planets that the James Webb space
rebooted the famous
rebooted the 1961 Drake
famous 1961 Drake equation
equation for
for estimating
estimating the
the number
number of
of
inhabited worlds in our galaxy that can be detected
spotting larger, gas giant worlds. inhabited
inhabited worlds in our
worlds in our galaxy
galaxy that
that can
can be
be detected
detected telescope might see at less than 10.
“Kepler is the single most DRAKE EQUATION “Just like with the Drake
DRAKE EQUATION
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revolutionary project that equation, some of the terms are


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has ever been undertaken in always speculative,” Seager says.


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exoplanets,” says Charbonneau. So is it possible the work will


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“It broke open the piggybank lead us to discover aliens next


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and rocky planets poured out.” door? “Of course I think it’s

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A planet’s distance from its star is possible. Why else would I be
also crucial, because that tells us
whether the temperature is right
N= R *
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x l
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x i
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x working so hard?” she says.
If Seager or someone else
for liquid water – and so perhaps
life – to exist.
N
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detected biosignatures, we would
spend more time looking in those
But with Kepler’s recent places for hints of intelligence,
woes, hopes of finding enough says Jill Tarter of the SETI Institute.
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potentially habitable planets, or “You’d know that’s an inhabited


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equation have dimmed. The And then you can ask the
mission was supposed to run for question, did they develop any
three-and-a-half years, which SEAGER
SEAGER EQUATION
EQUATION
ff Fraction of the Data estimated
Fraction of
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total number
total number
total number
the Data
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estimated
by Kepler
by Kepler
by Kepler technology we might detect?” n

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 7


THIS WEEK
LOOK Die Bildagentur der Fotografen GmbH/Alamy

big our emission cuts,” says Piers


Forster of the University of Leeds
in the UK, who contributed to
the new study. “Now it looks like
we have a chance, so we should
take it.”
“Prior to this, a lot of us were
feeling quite gloomy that
whatever we did, we would go
over 2 °C,” says Forster’s colleague
Myles Allen of the University
of Oxford. “It’s not a foregone
conclusion any more.”
After heating rapidly in the
late 20th century, Earth warmed
slowly in the last decade, partly
as a result of natural cycles in the
climate system.
Alexander Otto, also of the
University of Oxford, and
colleagues took data on human
greenhouse gas emissions since
the Industrial Revolution and
temperature rises in the last
40 years – including the most
–Cool it now for a bright future– recent data. From this, they
calculated how much greenhouse

A second chance to
something many climate gases have warmed the Earth
scientists had all but given up so far.
hope on. They then looked at what that

save the climate Governments have pledged


to limit the world to 2 °C of
warming – the agreed threshold
meant for the temperature rise
over the coming few decades, and
found that it will be slower than
for dangerous climate change. expected. The team focused on
Michael Marshall Brian Hoskins of the Grantham With emissions shooting up, how much hotter the planet will
Institute for Climate Change at this target seemed hopelessly be in the year that carbon dioxide
HUMANITY has another shot Imperial College London. “Global unrealistic. “If previous estimates concentrations reach double their
at stopping dangerous climate emissions have to peak and start [of how the climate will warm] pre-industrial value. On current
change. A fresh look at to come down.” But if we act were true, keeping the world trends, that will happen between
temperature data from the last soon the worst effects of climate below 2 °C would have been 2050 and 2070. Previous studies
decade offers an unexpected change could yet be avoided – almost impossible, however had found that temperatures
opportunity to stay below the
agreed international target of
Axis wobbles and wandering poles
2 °C of global warming.
The study took data on the rise Some of the consequences of climate That motion is largely attributed much mass glaciers were losing. He
in temperatures over the most change are just plain strange. Days to the long-term effects of plate then calculated how the poles would
recent decades, and worked out should get a teensy bit shorter as the tectonics and the fact that areas be affected by redistribution of that
what this means for the coming Earth spins faster, for instance. And covered in ice during the last ice mass – around 600 gigatonnes a
decades. It turns out Earth will now we have evidence that melting age are popping up like corks. year from Greenland, Antarctica and
warm more slowly over this ice is tilting the planet. In 2005, the drift abruptly mountain glaciers.
century than we thought it would, Earth’s rotational axis wobbles shifted in an easterly direction and He and his team found that
buying us a little more time to because the planet is not a perfect accelerated. This happened about shifting that amount of water from
cut greenhouse gas emissions. immutable sphere. Erosion, plate the same time as melting sped up in glaciers to the sea can account for
Climate scientists caution that tectonics and the weather move Greenland and Antarctica, so Jianli 90 per cent of the average polar
this in no way means climate mass around the surface, causing Chen of the University of Texas in drift since 2005, and that climate
change is not real. Temperatures the poles to wander. From 1982 to Austin, began looking for a link. He change was largely responsible for
are rising faster than they have 2005, this drift averaged about used data from the pair of Gravity the sudden change in our planet’s
for 11,000 years. “It should not 6 centimetres per year, pulling the Recovery And Climate Experiment tilt (Geophysical Research Letters,
take the pressure off at all,” says North Pole south towards Labrador. (GRACE) satellites to measure how doi.org/mj8). Jeff Hecht

8 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


For daily news stories, visit newscientist.com/news

would rise by 1.6 °C, but Otto “The observations are telling sensitivity is at the low end, and
A view to a cut found an increase of 1.3 °C us one thing and the climate we have a strong agreement in
Even if the world is warming (Nature Geoscience, doi.org/mj7). models are telling us another,” 2015, I think we stand a chance to
more slowly, urgent action “It might buy us five or says Forest. He thinks the most limit climate change to 2 °C,” says
is more pressing than ever 10 years,” says Chris Forest of likely range is between 2.5 and Corinne Le Quéré of the Tyndall
Penn State University, although 3 °C, slightly below the IPCC’s Centre for Climate Change
“The worst case scenarios he cautions that the problem estimate. Research in Norwich, UK. “But
are looking less likely. hasn’t gone away. If the new figures are right, there are a lot of ifs.”
We still have to reduce Not everyone is convinced that it’s a rare piece of good news for We can improve our chances by
Otto’s results change the picture. international climate talks. For cutting emissions of short-lived
emissions drastically. If we
“Short-term trends are just not warming agents like soot, says
don’t, we are talking about
that useful,” says Gavin Schmidt “A lot of us were gloomy Tim Lenton of the University
crossing 2 °C for sure” of the NASA Goddard Institute for that we would go over 2°C. of Exeter, UK. Otto’s research
Myles Allen, University of Oxford Space Studies in New York. Susan It’s not a foregone suggests that they have a bigger
Solomon of the Massachusetts conclusion any more” effect than previously thought,
“I think this is overdue. I’ve Institute of Technology adds so getting rid of them will buy
been arguing it for a few that recent volcanic eruptions the last few years, governments even more time.
years, and some powerful temporarily cooled the climate, have been planning to sign a deal Regardless, emissions must
people have been very masking some of the warming. in 2015 that will come into force still peak very soon to give us even
But others say that Otto’s in 2020. That seemed far too late. a 50:50 chance of staying below
resistant ... The most
calculations take account of Based on previous estimates of 2 °C, says Jason Lowe of the Met
noteworthy thing about these problems, so are probably the climate sensitivity, global Office in Reading, UK. “It was
this is not what is being said, about right. “The authors have emissions needed to peak by 2020 looking like the best we could
but who is saying it” done a very careful job,” says and then fall to have a 50 per cent attain was a 40:60 chance,” says
James Annan, JAMSTEC Yokohama Hoskins. chance of avoiding 2 °C. Hoskins. “If the negotiations are
Institute for Earth Sciences, Japan So it looks as if temperatures “If we are lucky and the climate done seriously, 2 °C is still on.” n
will rise slightly more slowly
“If anything it’s given me than expected in the short term.
greater resolve. If [previous But does it change where the
climate ends up the long run?
estimates] were true,
That depends on how sensitive
keeping the world below the climate is to CO2 accumulating
2 °C would have been in the atmosphere.
almost impossible, however The 2007 report of the
big our emission cuts. Now it
looks like we have a chance”
Intergovernmental Panel on What is cancer
Piers Forster, University of Leeds, UK
Climate Change (IPCC) estimated
that a doubling of CO2 in the and how can we
“It’s still collectively possible
atmosphere would mean
temperatures eventually stabilise control it?
between 2 °C and 4.5 °C above
to stay within the 2 °C Physicist and best-selling author Paul Davies takes
pre-industrial temperatures, with
boundary, and we should a best estimate of about 3 °C. This
a fresh look at cancer and describes a bold new
try to do so. It’s giving some long-term stabilisation is known theory that suggests a radical approach to therapy
hope that we can lower the as climate sensitivity.
risk of long-term threats to A growing number of climate
big ice sheets” scientists thinks that the
climate is less sensitive to CO2
Tim Lenton, University of Exeter, UK
than the IPCC’s best estimate,
Wednesday 5 June 2013 6.30 - 8.00 pm
so temperatures will not rise as
“If it does mean a little Conway Hall,
much as feared, even in the long
breathing space, great. run. “I’ve been arguing this for a 25 Red Lion Square,
It should not take the few years,” says James Annan of London WC1R 4RL
pressure off at all. The the JAMSTEC Yokohama Institute Three minutes from Holborn tube station
major thing is that global for Earth Sciences in Japan.
emissions have to peak When Otto calculated the Tickets £5 online, £7 on the door*
and start to come down” climate sensitivity from his To find out more and to buy your ticket go to:
Brian Hoskins, Grantham Institute data, he found that it was about cancertalk.eventbrite.co.uk
for Climate Change, London 2 °C – well below the IPCC’s best
*Subject to availability
estimate of 3 °C.

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 9


THIS WEEK
Dr. Dominik Paquet

B vitamins may
slow onset
of Alzheimer’s
THOSE at risk of developing
Alzheimer’s may be able to slow its
onset, through daily B vitamins.
We already know that a high level
of the amino acid homocysteine
in the blood is a risk factor for
Alzheimer’s, and that B vitamin
supplements help reduce
homocysteine levels. But it was
unclear whether or not these
supplements could slow the
progression of mild cognitive
impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s.
–What can you remember?– David Smith and Gwenaëlle
Douaud at the University of Oxford

New memories
The team also updated the led a research effort to find out. They
fish’s memory by retraining them used MRI to track changes in the
to stay close to the light instead of brains of 200 elderly volunteers with

filmed in action swimming away to avoid a shock.


Thirty minutes later, there was a
different pattern of activity in the
MCI over two years. Half were given
high doses of vitamin B12, B6 and
folic acid – the rest took a placebo.
telencephalon. The speed of this The team found that areas of
Douglas Heaven the optic tectum – a brain region pattern’s appearance suggests the brain most seriously affected
responsible for processing vision. that the previous avoidance-task by Alzheimer’s, including the
GOT a memory like a fish? The But when they repeated the memory was being altered, rather hippocampus and cerebellum, were
first study to visualise memories process 24 hours after training, than a new memory formed. protected in volunteers given the
being retrieved live in the whole they found that half a second Intriguingly, for reasons not vitamins. For instance, in those with
brain has not only debunked the after neurons fired in the tectum, yet known, 24 hours later the high homocysteine, the atrophy rate
“three-second memory” myth a group of neurons fired in the retrained fish had forgotten how in these brain regions was seven
about fish, but also sheds light on telencephalon, a part of their to perform the second task and times greater in the placebo group
the brain processes involved in brain thought to correspond to their behaviour and activity than in the vitamin group.
forming long-term memories. the neocortex in mammals. pattern reverted to that for the The reduction of atrophy seemed
By working with zebrafish, In humans, the neocortex is original avoidance task. to translate into better brain function
which are partially transparent, involved in higher level cognition, When the fish were trained to too: those given B vitamins performed
Hitoshi Okamoto at the RIKEN including memory and language. respond differently to a red or better on cognitive tests (PNAS, DOI:
Brain Science Institute in Wako, blue light, they displayed different 10.1073/pnas.1301816110).
Japan, and colleagues were able “The team observed the patterns of brain activity when “It demonstrates for the very first
to observe the roles played by roles played by different retrieving the memory for each time that it is possible to modify
different parts of the brain during parts of the brain during task, suggesting that separate the disease process in Alzheimer’s,”
memory processing. memory processing” groups of neurons are involved says Smith.
The team used fish with a in different long-term memories. Simon Ridley at Alzheimer’s
genetically engineered Fish that had been exposed to Rodrigo Quian Quiroga at the Research UK warns that more work is
fluorescent protein in the brain unpaired lights and shocks in the University of Leicester, UK, was needed to explore the link, but Smith
that glows less brightly when training tank had no activity in impressed with the whole brain points out that vitamin supplements
calcium levels increase – which the telencephalon when later analysis since “memory doesn’t are safe for most people and could
occurs when neurons fire. shown the red light. work in isolated regions”. He perhaps be offered to people at high
First, the team trained the fish Okamoto thinks telencephalon suggests the inability to observe risk of Alzheimer’s as a precaution.
to respond to a red light by activity occurs when the fish activity associated with short- “I think we need to bite the
moving tanks to avoid an electric retrieves a long-term memory – term memory could be because bullet and ask, is there any reason
shock. When the team showed in this case, of how to avoid a we do not yet have a good model that elderly people with memory
immobilised fish a red light shock. Stopping this area from to test this in zebrafish. “You problems shouldn’t be offered
30 minutes after the initial functioning led to fish forgetting cannot ask a fish to remember them in the meantime?” he says.
training, they only saw activity in everything they had been taught. a list of numbers,” he says. n Caroline Williams n

10 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


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THIS WEEK

String theory limits


String theory might be able to But if these universes eventually
help, says Zukowski, who has been become featureless and continue
studying the problem as part of to linger, they will all accrue

space brain threat her PhD research with Raphael


Bousso, also at Berkeley.
According to string theory,
Boltzmann brains, tipping the
balance away from us again.
Zukowski and Bousso’s latest
there may be a large number of work suggests this won’t happen.
Adam Becker Boltzmann brain,” says Claire universes. All of these universes Universes are constantly budding
Zukowski at the University of are believed to come into off a parent universe in the
LEGIONS of disembodied brains California, Berkeley. existence through a process called multiverse, so the parental
floating in deep space threaten to A particular problem is that eternal inflation, in which at least characteristics can determine
undermine our understanding of most Boltzmann brains will one universe continually expands
the universe. New mathematical exist in the far future when the at an incredible rate, while others “If the universe has a finite
modelling suggests string theory universe is no more than an inky form and grow within it like lifespan, that will deny
and its multiple universes may void, with a past indistinguishable bubbles. This pool of universes Boltzman brains the time
just provide our salvation – and from the future. This would make has been dubbed the multiverse. they need to outnumber us”
that could win the controversial our experience of time’s arrow Many of these other universes
theory a few more backers. highly unusual. could be chock-full of conscious what kinds of “baby” universes
Physicists have dreamed up However, if we can demonstrate creatures early in their histories form within it – and whether
some bizarre ideas over the years, that the universe has a finite when, like the universe we see those universes will stick around
but a decade or so ago they outdid lifespan, that would deny today, the past is distinct from the long enough to be filled with
themselves with the concept of Boltzmann brains the infinite future. That could help make our Boltzmann brains or decay first.
Boltzmann brains – fully formed, time they need to outnumber us. point of view the standard one. Bousso and Zukowski
conscious entities that form performed a mathematical
spontaneously in outer space. analysis of multiverses that start

LYNETTE COOK/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY


It may seem impossible for a out in one of two different initial
brain to blink into existence, but states: an older model first
the laws of physics don’t rule it suggested by Stephen Hawking
out entirely. All it requires is and his colleague James Hartle,
a vast amount of time. Eventually, and a newer model that has come
a random chunk of matter and out of mathematical treatments
energy will happen to come of the string multiverse. While
together in the form of a working the Hartle-Hawking model ended
mind. It’s the same logic that up overrun with Boltzmann
says a million monkeys working brains, ordinary human-like
on a million typewriters will consciousnesses prevailed in the
replicate the complete works of newer model. That makes our
Shakespeare, if you leave them view of the universe reassuringly
long enough. normal in such a multiverse
Most models of the future (Physical Review D, doi.org/mkj).
predict that the universe will The very idea of string theory
expand exponentially forever. and the multiverse is still
That will eventually spawn controversial. It is often attacked
inconceivable numbers of for being overly complicated
Boltzmann brains, far and difficult to prove. If Bousso
outnumbering every human and Zukowski are correct, though,
who has ever, or will ever, live. and it can help resolve the
This means that, over the entire problem of Boltzmann brains,
history of the universe, it is the the theory may just win a few
Boltzmann brains’ experience more backers.
of the universe and not ours “This is potentially an added
that is typical. That’s a problem, experimental success for string
because the starting point for our theory and eternal inflation,”
understanding of the universe says Daniel Harlow, a physicist at
and its behaviour is that humans Princeton University. “We need to
are typical observers. If we are not, understand it better – [but] the
our theories begin to look iffy. fact that it potentially explains
“It has to be more likely to be something is motivation to
an ordinary observer than a –No brainer if the multiverse rules– understand it better.” n

12 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


Great scientific minds
think Down Under
Australian expertise in the field of science is seeing a growth in associated events.

When The Australian Academy of Science was – often described as “the spiritual home of dedicated to excursions to the Great Barrier Reef,
founded on 16 February 1954, few could have Australian science”. Green Island and the Kuranda Scenic Railway.
envisioned that its location in Canberra, the The HFI/NQI meetings bring together experts Dr Boswell said that while plasma chemistry
nation’s capital, would become a hotbed of and students from a variety of scientific is a relatively small section of the scientific
research, development and education half a disciplines including theoretical, nuclear, atomic community Australia “is on the cutting edge” of
century later. and condensed matter physics, materials science, the specialisation.
Modelled on the Royal Society in London, synchrotron research, as well as chemistry, Like their expertise in chemistry, Australian
the Australian Academy of Science now has biology, medicine and engineering. The HFI/NQI scientists are also leading the world in physics –
more than 450 pre-eminent Fellows, employed event in Canberra will be the 17th International a point not lost on the scientific community or
by universities, the CSIRO, government and Conference on Hyperfine Interactions and the general public during the 36th International
private research organisations. In 2013 four the 21st International Symposium on Nuclear Conference on High Energy Physics held in
Canberra-based Australian National University Quadrupole Interactions. Melbourne in 2012.
academics were elected as Australian Academy It is expected that 80 per cent of delegates It was announced at this conference that a
of Science Fellows. attend visit from international markets. discovery of a new (Higgs boson) particle had
Despite its size, Canberra is regarded as an Later this year, Professor Timmers’ associate at been made that confirms what scientists believe
intellectual hub with institutions including the the UNSW Canberra, Dr Anthony Day, a Senior about how the universe was created.
Australian National University, Canberra Deep Lecturer in Molecular Design and Reaction Chair of the conference and one of the leading
Space Communication Complex, Condensed Mechanisms and Organic Chemistry, is hosting scientific researchers in the search for the so-
Matter and Materials Physics, CSIRO, Research the 3rd International Conference on Cucurbituril. called Higgs boson particle, the University of
School of Physics and Engineering, Department The bi-annual meeting, which focuses on Melbourne’s Professor Geoff Taylor, said there
of Nuclear Physics, University of NSW, Canberra, molecular interaction, was held in Korea in 2009 were 820 delegates in Melbourne present for the
and University of Canberra. and the United Kingdom in 2011. historic meeting.
Indeed, the city’s academic expertise in the field of Dr Day expects 80 per cent of delegates will As the meeting Chair and an Ambassador for
science, and particularly in physics and chemistry, attend from international markets, predominantly Melbourne he said he could not have been
is proving a boon for the business events sector, from Asia including China and India. happier with the conference and the outcomes.
with the city hosting an increasing number of Another Canberra-based Professor, Dr Rod “The majority thought it was a fabulous
high-level international scientific meetings. Boswell from the Research School of Physical conference. They thought Melbourne was a great
In 2014 Associate Professor Heiko Timmers Sciences and Engineering at ANU, is chairing city; they liked the lifestyle, the cafes and the
from the School of Physical, Environmental and another science-based international meeting dining options; and the Melbourne Convention
Mathematical Sciences at the UNSW Canberra in 2013 – the 21st Symposium on Plasma and Exhibition Centre is a great centre,” he said.
and Professor Andrew Stuchbery from the Chemistry – with this one to be held in Cairns in Events like this provide delegates the
Department of Nuclear Physics at ANU, are Tropical North Queensland. opportunity to meet with Australian and
hosting the 5th Joint International Conference Organised on behalf of the International Plasma international leaders in their field.
on Hyperfine Interactions and Symposium on Chemistry Society, around 400 scientists, He said following this meeting’s success it was
Nuclear Quadrupole Interaction. researchers and academics from around the world likely Australia would be hosting another high-
This meeting will fittingly be held in The will hold meetings at the purpose-built Cairns profile physics-related international conference
Australian Academy of Science’s Shine Dome Convention Centre with a day mid-conference in 2015.

Visit
businesseVents.australia.com
for eVerything you need to plan your australian eVent.
THIS WEEK

Suicidal behaviour:
For example, when people people who committed suicide
with bipolar disorder who have had a mental disorder, but
attempted suicide begin taking Turecki says that suicide rather

a treatable disease?
lithium, they tend to stop such than mental illness was the only
attempts even if the drug has no significant predictor for the
effect on their other symptoms. epigenetic changes.
This suggests that the drug may Other studies back up the
Sara Reardon Until the 1980s, people who be acting on neural pathways that suggestion that your genes
committed suicide were specifically influence suicidal influence suicide risk. For
COULD suicidal behaviour be a considered, by definition, to be tendencies (Annual Review of example, a study of adopted
disease in its own right, rather depressed. That didn’t explain Pharmacology and Toxicology, people who had committed
than a behaviour resulting from why 10 per cent of suicides have doi.org/dfjv57). suicide found that their biological
a mood disorder? no history of mental illness. The Gustavo Turecki of McGill relatives were six times more
Mounting evidence shows view began to change when University in Montreal, Canada, likely to commit suicide than
striking similarities in the brains autopsies revealed distinctive says that there are likely to be members of their adopted family
of people who are suicidal. These features in the brains of people many environmental factors that
are distinct from what is seen in who had committed suicide, such trigger changes in the brains of “Suicidal people’s brains
the brains of people who have as structural changes in areas people who are already genetically have striking similarities,
mood disorders but who died of involved in decision-making – prone to suicide, ultimately distinct from those with
natural causes. regardless of what disorder they increasing risk of the behaviour. mood disorders”
Such studies have led to “suicide had, and even when they had no This month, in a study of
behaviour disorder” being mental disorder at all (Brain suicidal brains, his group found (American Journal of Medical
accepted for the first time, albeit Research, doi.org/cvrpjk). 366 genes that had a different set Genetics, doi.org/fmsncv).
in the appendix, in the newest Although research is of epigenetic markers – chemical Ultimately, biological markers
version of psychiatry’s “bible” – complicated by a lack of brain switches that are triggered by might allow psychiatrists to better
the Diagnostic and Statistical samples or an animal model for environmental stressors and turn predict which patients are most at
Manual of Mental Disorders suicide, the idea that suicidal genes on and off – to those found risk of suicide. This could have
(DSM-5) – released this week. The behaviour has a distinct biology in the brains of people who had implications for how a doctor
appendix contains topics deemed is gaining ground. An increasing died of natural causes (American chooses to treat that person, says
to have enough weight to require number of studies are yielding Journal of Psychiatry, doi.org/ Jan Fawcett of the University of
further research for possible full insights into some of the changes mf7). The results are complicated New Mexico in Albuquerque. For
inclusion in future editions. that may underlie such behaviour. by the fact that many of the instance, they may not prescribe
certain antidepressants, as there
is evidence that some initially
increase suicide risk.
David Shaffer of Columbia
University in New York says that
suicide behaviour disorder is
“very much in the spirit” of the
Research Domain Criteria system
that the US National Institute
of Mental Health has proposed as
an alternative diagnosis standard
to DSM-5. Rather than diagnosing
people with a specific disorder,
such as depression, the NIMH
wants mental illness to be
diagnosed and treated based on
an individual’s symptoms, and
their underlying genetics and
neurobiology.
Ultimately, says Nader Perroud
of the University of Geneva in
Switzerland, if suicidal behaviour
is considered a disease, it will
Justin Sullivan/Getty

become possible to conduct more


focused research. “We might be
able to find a proper treatment for
–A matter of life or death– suicidal behaviour.” n

14 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


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B u y y o u r c o p y n o w a t a r c f i n i t y. o r g
IN BRIEF
Steven Kazlowski / naturepl.com

These wings were


made for diving
A CANADIAN seabird may help
explain why penguins cannot fly.
The thick-billed murre (Uria
lomvia) is a diving bird that flies –
just not very well. In fact, when
Robert Ricklefs at the University
of Missouri at St Louis and his
colleagues studied murres in
flight, they found the bird used
almost three times as much
energy as the bar-headed goose,
previously considered the least
efficient flying bird. Underwater,
though, the murre can swim with
an efficiency only 30 per cent
below the level expected of a
penguin of similar size (PNAS,
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1304838110).
“You can’t have a wing that’s
both good for propulsion in water
and in air,” says Ricklef.
The murre may ultimately
reach a point where using wings
as flippers would trump using
Arctic thaw makes polar their MHC genes, so their immune system may lack this
versatility (Animal Conservation, doi.org/mht).
them for flying, though Ricklef
says it would take millennia for
bears vulnerable to disease This could be an adaptation to life in the Arctic, which this to happen.
is relatively free of diseases and parasites compared with
MORE grim news for polar bears: they may be particularly lower latitudes. But it could leave the polar bear at risk
vulnerable to pathogens spreading northwards as the from an influx of infections as global temperatures rise.
Neanderthals quick
climate warms. “There are a number of diseases now observed in Arctic
Diana Weber at the New College of Florida, Sarasota, animals [that were] not previously seen,” Weber says. to leave the breast?
and her colleagues sequenced DNA from 98 polar bears Polar bears are likely to have survived periods of
in Canada. They looked specifically for genes encoding warming before, but Axel Janke at the Biodiversity and NEANDERTHALS may have begun
the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) – a crucial Climate Research Centre in Frankfurt, Germany, points weaning their babies at 7 months,
component of the immune systems of most vertebrates. out that this time the warming is more rapid and is and ceased breastfeeding
In many species, the genes that code for the MHC’s happening in tandem with human-driven habitat altogether 7 months later.
molecules are variable, allowing them to detect and bind destruction, illegal hunting and pollution. “All this adds Manish Arora from the
to many pathogens. The polar bears had low diversity in up to a very real threat to polar bear survival,” he says. University of Sydney in Australia
and colleagues discovered that
levels of barium in tooth enamel
Tides are pushing the moon away faster years ago, and fed that into a rise while a child is breastfed but
model to simulate ancient tides. drop off when they are weaned.
EARTH is shoving the moon away spin on its axis and causing the Energy dissipation back then was So they tested barium levels in
faster now than it has done for moon’s orbit to expand at a rate of only half what it is today, so the a 100,000-year-old molar from a
most of the past 50 million years, about 3.8 centimetres per year. If moon was pushed away at a Neanderthal child and concluded
says a new model for the way tides that rate has always been the same, slower rate (Geophysical Research it was weaned at 14 months
influence the lunar orbit. The the moon should be 1.5 billion Letters, doi.org/mjz). (Nature, DOI:10.1038/nature12169).
result helps solve a mystery years old, yet some lunar rocks are The key is the North Atlantic This is “intriguingly early”, says
concerning the moon’s age that 4.5 billion years old. Ocean, which is now wide enough Louise Humphrey at the Natural
has long vexed astronomers. Enter Matthew Huber of Purdue for water to slosh across once per History Museum in London. It
The moon’s gravity creates a University in West Lafayette, 12-hour cycle, says Huber. Like a suggests they matured faster than
daily cycle of low and high tides. Indiana. His team gathered data child sliding in a bathtub, that modern humans, who tend to be
This dissipates energy between on ocean depths and continental creates larger waves and very high weaned at 30 months in hunter-
the two bodies, slowing Earth’s contours that existed 50 million tides, shoving the moon faster. gatherer and agrarian societies.

16 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


For new stories every day, visit newscientist.com/news

No camera needed Malaria bug gives mosquitoes a super-sharp sense of smell


for ghostly 3D pics MALARIA parasites help of malaria parasite – they become landed on and attempted to bite
mosquitoes sniff us out, it seems. more likely to target humans. the stockings around 15 times on
SNAPPING a picture with a camera Mosquitoes infected by the To quantify the effect and try average. By contrast, uninfected
that doesn’t exist is pretty spooky, parasite are three times as likely to work out its cause, James Logan mosquitoes attempted to bite
but doing it in stereo is even more as uninfected mosquitoes to from the London School of only around five times on average
so. A strange kind of photography respond to human smells – a Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (PLoS One, doi.org/mjx).
known as ghost imaging has been finding that could lead to new and colleagues infected some lab- Logan suspects that the parasite
made to work in three dimensions. ways to combat a disease that grown Anopheles gambiae boosts its chances of being spread
Matthew Edgar of the University causes 770,000 deaths a year. mosquitoes with Plasmodium by manipulating its host’s sense
of Glasgow, UK, and colleagues used Female Anopheles mosquitoes parasites. of smell, and he plans to use
a projector to shine hundreds of are attracted to chemicals in Logan’s team presented the microelectrodes to study how the
random black-and-white patterns human odours, which help them mosquitoes with nylon stockings parasite affects olfactory cells in
onto an object. Four single-pixel find the source of blood they need containing the volatile chemicals the mosquitoes’ antennae. The
detectors – simple devices that can to grow their eggs. When these produced by our feet. Over a results might make it possible to
only record the intensity of light at mosquitoes carry Plasmodium period of three minutes, create a lure targeting malaria-
their location – picked up some of falciparum – the most lethal form Plasmodium-infected mosquitoes infected mosquitoes, he says.
the reflected photons.
Light patterns that happen to

superstock
approximate the shape of the object
IVF boosted by
reflect more light than mismatched
ones. The computer weights each time-lapse video
pattern accordingly and overlays
the results, so that a picture of the TIME-LAPSE imaging could triple
object – in this case a polystyrene a couple’s chance of successful IVF.
dummy head (pictured below) – Simon Fishel at the CARE
gradually emerges. Fertility clinic in Nottingham, UK,
Real-world applications are a bit and colleagues have devised a way
limited for now, because it takes to analyse the development of
about half an hour to build a picture. embryos to pinpoint those most
But digital camera sensors for likely to have chromosomal
non-visible wavelengths are abnormalities – the main
expensive or non-existent, while contributor to IVF failure.
single-pixel detectors are cheap. So Fishel’s team filmed 88 newly
if such ghost imaging can be sped fertilised eggs from 69 couples in
up, infrared detectors could be used their incubator until they become
to identify potential natural-gas blastocysts – the small ball of cells
fields from warm gas leaking from that is implanted into the womb.
the ground, while detectors of Analysis of the footage
terahertz wavelengths might be indicated that embryos with For speedier sums, electrify the brain
used in airport security scanners. chromosomal abnormalities take
about 6 hours longer to form a BAD at times tables? Just zap your the people given TRNS were twice as
University of Glasgow

blastocyst. The team then devised brain with electricity. fast at mental calculations and their
an algorithm that identifies such Roi Cohen Kadosh at the rate of improvement was twice that
embryos and flags them as high University of Oxford and colleagues of the other group. Their ability to
risk. The algorithm also monitors have shown that you can boost recall arithmetic facts such as times
other aspects of growth that mental arithmetic by delivering an tables improved five-fold in both
indicate good health. electrical signal to the brain, exciting measures. Six months later, half the
Currently, about 25 per cent of the neurons. Using such transcranial group returned for retesting. The
IVF treatments in the UK lead to random noise stimulation (TRNS), TRNS group still performed the
live births. The team estimates electrodes were placed on the scalp calculations 28 per cent faster than
that the new technique could over areas including the prefrontal people given the sham treatment
raise the success rate to 78 per cortex – used for mental maths. (Current Biology, doi.org/mj2).
cent (Reproductive BioMedicine, The team gave 25 people TRNS and Cohen Kadosh says TRNS could
doi.org/mjt). Fertility experts 26 a sham treatment. Both groups be useful for children with learning
were impressed but called for were initially equally fast at their difficulties, or help to rehabilitate
further comparison with existing sums. After five 40-minute sessions, people after a stroke.
methods for selecting embryos.

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 17


TECHNOLOGY
For more technology stories, visit newscientist.com/technology
Jeff Chiu/AP/PA

information about birds that have


been sighted near a Glass-wearer’s
location. It draws on Cornell
University’s eBird birdwatching
database, which collects sightings
from all over the US. “If you had
to use a birdwatching book, you’d
have to go through all the species
that may not be in the area at the
time,” says Blaha. “But something

“Think your phone is always


with you? Try putting on
a pair of glasses that are
connected to the internet”

like this uses your location to keep


track of what birds are likely to be
around you at that moment.”
Users are also able to look up a
bird’s entry without taking their
–Online and on your face– eyes off the bird itself – impossible
with a book or smartphone.

Time to raise a Glass


Other Glass apps adapt and
enhance familiar smartphone
tasks. For example, a program
called Glassnost, created by
Boston-based developer Erik
Not sure if the Google Glass headset is quite your pictures with a voice command. Johnson, lets users share images
Other official apps come from online, then receive feedback
thing? A load of new apps might convince you third parties, like news headlines from their friends directly in
from The New York Times. the Glass display. This kind of
MacGregor Campbell camera, eye movement sensors, But as developers who have interaction is more cumbersome
a touch-sensitive sidebar and tried the device are discovering, on a phone, says Johnson. With
READY to wear a computer on a number of other sensors, Glass is about more than just Glass, the camera is always out
your face? Google thinks you are. including an accelerometer, adapting familiar activities to a and ready, and the Glassnost app
The company’s Glass headset gyroscope and compass. It has new interface. Nelson Blaha, a web shows comments as they come in.
seeks to bring wearable Wi-Fi and can be paired with developer in Dallas, Texas, has had Johnson thinks this might
computing into the mainstream – a smartphone via Bluetooth to Glass for about three weeks now. change the way we use photo-
but what will the average person access things like GPS or data He says it is perfect for subtly sharing services. “Say you’re at
do with it? There are privacy fears, over a 3G or 4G connection. adding context to the background a store and you want friends to
but a sneak peek at some of the So far, the apps that come with of one’s normal activities. help you decide whether or not
first Glass apps gives a glimpse of Glass simply adapt familiar online Blaha’s BirdsForGlass app to buy something, you can push
how useful the device might be. activities, like emailing or taking displays pictures of and photos to the web and get
Glass debuted in May last year feedback very quickly,” he says.
at Google’s annual developer Another app, called
conference, Google I/O, but it was
only last month that designers
An eye for gaming ThroughGlass, developed by
Los Angeles-based engineers
and developers finally got their Virtually everyone plays games matches two Glass wearers near each Andrew Skotzko and Drew
hands on the device. At the latest on their smartphones these days. other who must follow directions to Baumann brings this kind of
I/O, held in San Francisco last They might soon be doing the same meet and snap a picture. Players earn “always on” social networking
week, Google showed developers wearing Google’s Glass headset. One points based on the people they meet. to Facebook users. It allows users
how to play around with Glass to of the first games for the device is an Glass would also work with Google’s to take photos and videos with
come up with exciting new uses. augmented reality (AR) game called AR game Ingress, in which players Glass, upload them to Facebook
Glass consists of a fingertip- StarFinder, developed by dSky9 of compete to “take control” of real-life and update their status using
sized transparent prism display San Francisco. Players compete to landmarks. Glass has been built to voice recognition, as well as “like”
that sits at the top right corner of identify constellations in the night support multiplayer gaming, although their friends’ posts.
a user’s field of vision. This prism sky. Another game, called Icebreaker, no such games exist for it yet. “You think your phone is always
is attached to a body housing a with you? Try putting on a pair >

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 19


TECHNOLOGY

Danger! Flash

reuters
< of glasses that are connected to
the internet,” says Skotzko.
Glass also makes activities that
you would not want to do with a

flood on its way


smartphone more desirable, such
as facial recognition. It would be
embarrassing to hold up your
smartphone camera to try to
identify someone who you’re not
sure whether you’ve met before.
Disposable paper sensors dropped by drones could
But an app for doctors called buy time to escape a storm surge
MedRefGlass, developed by Lance
Nanek in New York is more subtle.
It takes a photo, then uploads it to Hal Hodson of warning, as well as predicting
an online analysis and recognition the flood’s path.
service called BetaFace. This FLASH floods are quick and The goal is to launch a swarm of
matches the picture against the deadly. At least 13 people died about 10 drones to automatically
when a surge hit parts of Saudi monitor a potential flash flood.
“An app called Winky Arabia earlier this month. Two The drones will drop disposable
allows Google Glass years earlier, 123 were killed when wireless sensors across the region
wearers to take pictures thunderstorms dumped rain over at risk. If the sensors meet
just by winking” arid land to the east of the Red Sea floodwater they will be carried
port of Jeddah, hitting the city away on the current, sending out
faces of previous patients and, if it with no warning. A drone a simple signal which the drones
recognises it, serves up medical monitoring system that tracks can track. The drones relay the
information about the person. floods in real time would sound sensors’ changing positions back
Until last week, Google gave app the alarm before the water hits. to a central database, which builds
developers no option but to use Existing forecasting models are up a model of floodwater flow. He will describe the system at
a programming interface called good at predicting roughly when “The sensors are made of the International Conference
Mirror, which did not give access an area might experience the printed circuits on paper, which on Unmanned Aircraft Systems
to the camera or other sensors. right mix of conditions to create reduces the cost of the device,” in Atlanta, Georgia, at the end
Some found a way around this by a flash flood, but they can’t say says Claudel. The printed sensors of May. Claudel has meetings
putting Glass in a special mode precisely when or where a flood act as location tags, pinging set up for June with the city
that allows it to be programmed will strike. Christian Claudel at a unique ID number to the authorities in the Saudi capital
just like any device that runs the King Abdullah University of drones over a short range. This Riyadh about starting a trial
Google’s Android operating Science and Technology outside is much cheaper than using of the scheme.
system. Now Google has told all Jeddah is working on a drone dedicated sensors with their Kristen Rasmussen, who
developers how to do this hack, system that could give such cities own communications systems, studies flash flooding at the
which opens up the possibilities. between 30 minutes and 2 hours which may never be recovered. University of Washington in
In this way, developer Mike
DiGiovanni created an app called
Winky that allows Glass wearers
to take pictures with a wink rather Take the pain out gather and a community would build
up.” But today people play games
than a voice command.
Investors are taking an interest.
of the train, play an either at home or in a private bubble
on their phones. Toprak wants to put
A start-up incubator called interactive game games back into public space.
Stained Glass Labs and a venture- Cart-Load-o-Fun is similar to Pac-
capital fund called Glass Collective CROWDED, hot, boring: commuting is Man and involves two players who
were recently founded to support rarely enjoyable. Interactive games must work together to move a dot
companies developing Glass apps. might help make your journey pass around on a screen, picking up gems
With greater control over the more quickly and pleasantly. and avoiding enemies. The players
device, developers are more Chad Toprak of the Exertion Games control the dot by squeezing special
likely to hit on a killer app. Lab at RMIT University in Melbourne, pads fixed to the overhead handholds
DiGiovanni thinks there will be Australia, and colleagues have on a tram. One player moves the dot
many. “Everyone doing a job developed a game called Cart-Load- left and right, the other up and down.
probably has something that o-Fun that can be installed on buses, The movement of the tram is
would benefit from them having trains or trams. part of the fun because players
a lightweight hands-free device “Back in the 70s we had games have to steady themselves with
rex

always on them,” he says. n arcades,” he says. “People would the handholds while playing. –Play your way to work–

20 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


One Per Cent
For more technology stories, visit newscientist.com/technology

Yuriko Nakao/Reuters
Keep the customer satisfied
If you enjoy an advert, you are more likely to buy the product.
A new system will help advertisers work out how their latest
offering is going down, just by watching your face. The
software, developed at the MIT Media Lab, looks at how
muscles in the face move in response to watching a video.
It can then decide what counts as positive facial responses
and gauge which adverts the viewer will enjoy the most.

–High and dry but safe–


“The future of technology will be
Seattle, says it would be really important: getting the message largely determined by citizens who
useful to combine the drone out and persuading people to pay
system with existing models that attention to it.
design, build, and hack their own”
take account of terrain and how “Unless the information is used NASA’s Nicholas Skytland talks ahead of a National Day of Civic
the water moves. “That could be to get the word out to people, even Hacking in the US on 1 June in which volunteers will take on
very powerful,” she says, adding the most advanced technology is challenges to build new software and apps (Source: BoingBoing)
that such floods are a problem all not much use,” she says.
over the world, from Venezuela to “These are fast-moving, violent
the US Southwest. A flash flood in events that are hard to predict,” Lifelogger knows all about your day
Colorado in 1976 killed 176 people. says Burrell Montz of East Carolina How was your day? Stressful, fun, boring? It might soon be
But she warns that the social University in Grenville. “This easier to review the highs and lows. Developed by MIT’s
aspect of prediction is equally would be awesome if it works.” n Media Lab, the Inside-Out system uses a biosensor worn on
the wrist to log how the electrical properties of the skin
change, indicating heightened emotions. A smartphone
“Passengers found it amusing,” says game may be enough to keep them around the neck takes pictures several times a minute to log
Toprak’s colleague Floyd Mueller, also using the service. what you were doing at the time. At the end of the day, the
at RMIT University. “Even the driver Commuter games could also user views their experiences on a screen and can scroll
was involved.” They discussed the reduce congestion on overcrowded through their day using gestures, picked up by a Kinect camera.
work at the Foundations of Digital transport networks. Chromaroma,
Games conference in Chania, Greece, for example, turns the data collected
last week. every time you check in or out of a 4G? Samsung is already on to 5G
It’s not all fun and games, though. station on the London Underground Many of us don’t even have 4G-enabled smartphones. But
The tram company likes the game into game stats. Players win points last week Samsung was touting a new generation of mobile
because it encourages people to hold for passing through certain stations connectivity with an antenna system that can transfer data
on to the bars. “Games also make or they can compete for the fastest at 1 gigabit per second. That’s about 40 times faster than
people perceive that their journey time between stops. Transport for today’s fastest data connection. But don’t hold your breath.
goes faster,” says Mueller. This London is interested in the game’s The demo needed 64 antennas to work – unfeasible in a
element has attracted the attention potential for crowd control. Players battery-powered smartphone.
of a Melbourne ferry company that could be rewarded for avoiding
has spent a lot of money trying to congested stations, for example, or For breaking tech news go to:
cut down its journey times. Simply for getting off one stop before their newscientist.com/onepercent
changing people’s commute with a destination. Douglas Heaven n

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 21


TECHNOLOGY

Insight Renewable energy

Wave power reborn


The world’s first commercial wave farm is opening – is it a fresh start for the technology?
WAVE energy hasn’t had a great time will use an approach that eschews the platforms which can survive powerful to get a cheaper grid connection.”
of it in recent years. Despite advances heavy swells favoured by previous storms. In contrast, 40South’s machine Wave energy researcher Ted
in research, getting wave power up systems and aims to make it possible – does not try to endure extreme Brekken at Oregon State University in
and running in any meaningful and cheap – to harness the surf along conditions – it hides beneath them. Corvallis says it was natural for wave
commercial sense has not been very previously unviable coasts. On 19 June, 40South will install a energy companies to initially try to
successful – and that’s putting it mildly. Wave energy companies have 150-kilowatt module outside Livorno harness the most powerful waves
In 2008, for example, the world’s typically focused on the most Port in Tuscany. The machine uses two possible, but pursuing the most
first commercial plant, based on a energetic seas – off the wild coasts of connected buoyant sections that sit energetic waves at any cost doesn’t
system by Pelamis of Edinburgh, UK, Scotland, for example. But Michele one above the other at different necessarily make sense. “How much
opened to great fanfare off the coast Grassi, founder of London-based wave depths, with the lower one moored it costs to make, maintain and deploy
of Portugal. But the project was energy company 40South Energy, says to the seabed. The arms that connect the device is very significant for wave
cancelled two months later amid this means building expensive, bulky them move inside each other like energy,” says Brekken. This seems to
technical and financial problems. pistons, generating power using be the way forward. Indeed, Pelamis
Wave power is to get another bite “The machine does not electric dynamos as they move. The claims its latest design, called the P2,
of the cherry when a commercial wave try to endure extreme whole structure sits below the surface, costs less than its predecessor and is
farm opens off the coast of Italy next wave conditions – where wave energy can still be simpler to build.
month. The farm, the first of its kind, it hides beneath them” captured but at lower amounts. Italy’s largest power company,
Crucially, it automatically adjusts its Enel, bought the Livorno Port unit
vertical position in the water depending from 40South last year, and has an
on the conditions, sinking out of agreement to buy more if all goes to
harm’s way during large, potentially plan, as part of a five-year partnership.

Ideas spread by the damaging storms. This also helps it


produce consistent levels of power.
Carlo Papa, chief innovation officer of
Enel subsidiary, Enel Green Power, says

printing press helped


The steady output is a big the firm spent months on the lookout
advantage, says Hugo Chandler of for marine energy technologies that
London-based energy consultancy were safe and easy to manage, and

to drive the scientific New Resource Partners, whose work


focuses on integrating renewable
which had no impact on the existing
marine environment. “We’ve seen a lot

revolution
power into the grid. “Something more of the machines that are out there,”
stable is much less frightening for the Papa says. “40South weren’t lucky,
grid operator,” he says. “They’re going they were good.” Hal Hodson n

Are you ready for


the next chapter?
newscientist.com/cloudup
Philippe Lesprit/Plainpicture

In association with

–Awash with energy–

22 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


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24 | NewScientist | 25
00 May
Month
2013
2013
Cry for help
“LIFE. That’s what’s in this picture that’s missing
in pictures of ivory, or poached animals,” says
photographer James Morgan.
This blue-eyed tiger cub changed the focus of
Morgan’s photography when he stumbled across
a tiger rescue in Bangkok, Thailand. This cub
and 15 others were found hidden in a fruit crate
behind the cab of a truck bound for Laos. Morgan
had a flash of inspiration: rather than continue
to bombard the world with pictures of tusks and
animal carcasses, essentially information about
what is already lost, he decided to remind us of
what we still have, in the hope that we’ll feel more
compelled to protect it.
Here, veterinary practitioners are sampling the
cub’s DNA in order to find out where the batch of
16 came from. This should help authorities better
trace and crack down on the criminal network.
Though it’s still unclear who put them in the
back of the truck, it’s almost certain that they
were being traded for their supposed medicinal
qualities. Traditional Chinese medicine views
tiger parts as providing good luck and protective
powers, but cubs are also often traded for their
fur or as pets for the elite.
For this cub, and others like it, the story
doesn’t end happily. According to Morgan, it faces
a lifetime in captivity at wildlife breeding centres
because it is too risky to release these sought-
after animals back into the wild. Morgan’s hope
is that images like this one – taken on behalf of
a WWF campaign – will appeal to the conscience
of those who buy animal products. Julia Sklar

Photographer
James Morgan
WWF-CANON

0025 May 2013 | NewScientist | 25


Month
OPINION

Drowning in numbers
We know that sea level will rise, but how far and how fast? The latest attempt
to put figures on it is dangerously misleading, says Michael Le Page

IMAGINE your job is to protect but its numbers come with some
London from surging seas. In one rather large caveats.
way it is easy: unlike most coastal For starters, the modellers
cities, London has a formidable didn’t have the computing power
flood defence system in the form to look at a range of scenarios for
of the Thames Barrier, capable how much carbon dioxide we
of protecting it from all but the will pump into the atmosphere.
highest storm surges. Instead, they looked at just one –
But as the seas rise, the risk of a “mid-range” scenario predicted
the barrier being breached will by the 2007 report to lead to
increase steadily. With a 1-metre warming of around 3 °C.
rise in local sea level, London will Yet actual emissions today are
get flooded every 10 years. So much closer to the worst-case
when do you start building new scenario, which some recent
flood defences, and how high do studies predict could lead to
you make them? warming of 6 °C or more. And
The stakes are enormous. far from falling, annual global
Building new defences will cost emissions are rising ever faster.
tens of billions and involve With hundreds more coal-fired
decades of planning and power stations being built and
controversy before construction new sources of fossil fuels like tar
even begins. Get it wrong, and sands being exploited, there is
storm surges could kill thousands good reason to think emissions
and displace millions. So all will continue to soar for many
around the world, planners are decades to come.
clamouring to know how fast the What’s more, to account for
seas will rise as the planet warms. the fact that warming will not be
Until recently, scientists could warming of 5.4 °C, even though on the fact that this is less than uniform across the globe, the
not give them any reliable the report’s highest projection some other recent estimates of modellers had to produce regional
numbers. There were no was 6.4 °C. Unsurprisingly, many at least a metre. “Seas will rise projections of warming, snowfall
computer models capable of people wrongly took 59 cm of sea no more than 69 centimetres by and so on to feed into the ice
simulating the melting of the level rise to be the worst case. 2100,” proclaimed this magazine. models. But regional projections
world’s ice sheets and glaciers. Now we have some more Others focused on the fact that are highly unreliable, with
The 2007 report of the numbers. A European-funded even this relatively small rise could different models often producing
Intergovernmental Panel on project called ice2sea has have devastating consequences. wildly varying results. The prime
Climate Change (IPCC) handled developed computer models of “Floods could overwhelm Thames example is the Arctic, where the
this uncertainty really badly. It glaciers and ice sheets. Earlier Barrier by end of century,” sea ice is disappearing much
acknowledged that we don’t know this month it announced that declared The Guardian in London. faster than anyone expected.
how fast all the ice will melt, but melting ice would contribute How much trust can we put in To understand why regional
then gave some numbers anyway between 4 and 37 cm to global these numbers, though? The whole climate predictions are so much
– between 18 and 59 centimetres sea level by 2100. Adding this point of the ice2sea programme less reliable than global ones,
of sea level rise by 2100 – based on to the other causes of sea level was to “reduce the uncertainty”, think of the heat entering the
highly dubious assumptions such rise – the main one being the atmosphere and oceans as water
as glaciers continuing to flow at expansion of the oceans as they “The projections for how pouring into a bath. Predicting the
the same rate and the Antarctic ice warm – gives figures of between much sea level will rise average level of the bath is much
sheet growing larger. The numbers 16 and 69 cm by 2100. imply a level of certainty easier that predicting the height
also assumed a maximum Some media reports focused that simply doesn’t exist” of the waves sloshing around.

26 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


Comment on these stories at newscientist.com/opinion

So the climate information


being fed into these latest ice
models could be way off the mark.
One minute with...
And even if it isn’t, how do
we know the models are right?
Well, say the researchers, they
Ralph Keeling
can reproduce some of the
observed responses to the actual For the atmospheric scientist, monitoring carbon dioxide is a
0.5 °C warming of the past few family tradition. He says we've reached a worrying milestone
decades, such as the retreat of
glaciers. But that doesn’t prove
they can predict the response to
future warming of 3 or 6 °C. There The Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii has
are similar issues with global reportedly recorded a carbon dioxide
climate models. concentration there of 400 parts per million
This kind of research is vital. for the first time. How significant is that?
But when such a limited study is It’s a psychological milestone. Every year in the
presented as the “best estimate” last few decades, CO2 concentrations have been
available, the danger is that it will going up by about 2 ppm per year. Those changes
be misinterpreted in the same go unnoticed but people pay attention to round
way as the 2007 IPCC report. Its numbers. It gives you a bit of perspective on how
numbers do not encompass the far we’ve come – a bit like turning 40, or 50.
worst-case scenario – far from it.
They don’t even represent the So how far have we come?
most likely scenario. The narrow Before the industrial revolution, we started at
range implies a degree of about 280 ppm. 100 years ago, levels had risen to
certainty that simply doesn’t around 300, and they crossed 350 in the late
exist. Nobody should be basing 1980s. We think the last time concentrations were Profile
life-and-death decisions such as high as 400 ppm was between 3 and 5 million Ralph Keeling directs the CO₂ programme at
as how to protect Londoners on years ago, when the world was much warmer. the Scripps Institute of Oceanography in La
these numbers. Jolla, California. He is pictured here with his
The ice2sea organisers must What did Earth look like 3-5 million years ago? pioneering father, the late Charles David Keeling
have been aware of this because It had much higher sea levels, forests extended all
they also asked a bunch of experts the way to the Arctic Ocean, and there was almost
how bad they thought it could get. certainly a lot less sea ice. Today, sea ice is melting difficult. The realisation that there was a stable
This exercise produced yet rapidly, and in the last decades we have seen the background level meant the challenge of
another set of numbers – there is tree line moving north into the Arctic tundra. measuring the increase might not be so great.
less than a 1 in 20 chance that sea You simply had to go to a place far enough from
level rise will exceed 84 cm by Are we in a climate danger zone? contamination and track it over time. The Mauna
2100. But isn’t the whole point of In my view, yes. At 400 ppm, we’ve perturbed Loa measurements came later, beginning in 1958.
modelling this stuff to reduce our Earth enough already that things could unfold
reliance on guesstimates? that will be catastrophic. When did he first see a steady rise in CO₂ –
The big picture is that there is what is now known as the Keeling curve?
no doubt that the planet will get We passed 400 ppm for the first time last The early days at Mauna Loa were fraught. Power
hotter and that sea level will year, above the Arctic. What is special about outages meant the measuring instrument had to
eventually rise many metres. We the Mauna Loa record? be shut down for weeks. It would come back on
know this because the last time It’s the one record that has high resolution going reading a different level. He thought there should
atmospheric CO2 levels were back to the late 1950s – when my father set it up. be a stable background, but concentrations were
higher than 400 parts per million, fluctuating. It was only when he’d gathered a year
sea level was between 5 and Why did he start tracking CO₂ at Mauna Loa? of data that he realised there was a seasonal cycle.
40 metres higher. Even if In the early 1950s, he was at the California
emissions stopped tomorrow, Institute of Technology studying carbon in rivers. So levels may drop below 400 ppm again?
there would still be huge sea level As part of that, he developed a way to measure Crossing from below to above 400 will play out
rises. The only question is how fast CO₂ in the air. He discovered that if you measured over years, partly because there is a natural up and
it will happen. The frightening concentrations in a sufficiently remote place, you down with the seasons. But this time next year it
truth is that we still don’t know. ■ almost always got the same number. That was will be higher still. In a couple of years we’ll never
Scripps Institute

unexpected. Previous work suggested CO₂ levels get below 400 again.
Michael Le Page is a features editor at were more variable, making measurement very Interview by Catherine Brahic
New Scientist

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 27


OPINION INTERVIEW

Lofty ambitions
Lunar mining start-up Moon Express is testing robotic moon landers in
advance of a 2015 trial mission. Internet entrepreneur Naveen Jain tells
Paul Marks why he founded the firm, and why he’s leaving the pursuit
of asteroids to rival space miners

How did you go from internet businesses to Before you can start mining, you have to get Profile
moon mining? to the moon. Post Apollo, hasn’t the ability to Naveen Jain is a former
I’d been looking at how to solve big problems land on the moon been temporarily lost? veteran of Microsoft
in alternative energy. A lot of the time, All the technology to get to and land on the and founder of internet
innovative ideas don’t get very far because moon exists already – whether it is simply businesses Intelius and
we just don’t have the affordable material an autonomous lander or a more complex Inome. With Barney Pell
resources here on Earth. Take platinum, for robotic exploration mission. Our spacecraft and Bob Richards, he
example, which could possibly be used as a and its autonomous control and landing founded Moon Express
catalyst for fuel cells in hydrogen-fuelled cars. software is working already in tests at a NASA in 2010. The company,
It is so expensive here on Earth. Or helium-3, facility. Our lander is an entrant in the Google based in Mountain View,
which you could potentially use in future Lunar X Prize. The minute a private company California, aims to mine
fusion reactors to create a non-radioactive is able to land on the moon, that’ll be a precious resources on
energy source. We got to wondering if we significant event that changes everything – the moon
could harvest such materials from space, and because that has never been done before.
specifically from the moon. There are so many
riches in space: why not go and get them? How much is NASA involved with your venture?
NASA is providing us with the underlying
You mentioned platinum and helium-3, what technology. Its Ames Research Center is
other resources can you mine on the moon? developing a lunar orbiter called the Lunar
All the gold, cobalt, iron, palladium, tungsten Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer.
and so on mined from Earth’s crust came from We are taking almost the same spacecraft
asteroids that hit Earth after its crust cooled. design, miniaturising it, and using that
These same types of asteroids bombarded the technology for our lander mission in 2015.
moon throughout its history, so we can expect
the same resources to be available on or near What are the milestones after you land?
the lunar surface. Once we prove we can land safely we’ll show
we can hover over the lunar surface. We may
Others believe asteroids are the best source leave a small commemorative payload on
for such materials. Why shoot for the moon? the moon and then lift off to lunar orbit.
My thinking has always been: why go to an Bringing anything we later mine back from
individual asteroid when the moon has been the moon will have three separate, technically
an aggregator of asteroids for billions of years? challenging elements: getting mined
Look up at the moon on a clear night and all resources into lunar orbit, from there to Earth
you see are craters where asteroids have struck. orbit, and then to Earth’s surface. The great
And because the moon has no atmosphere, thing here is that we don’t have to invent
and there is no tectonic activity, all of the anything new to do all this.
asteroid material is still sitting there on the
surface. It has already been crushed, so it Your lander is set to take off in 2015. If that all
is all ready to be processed. Moon mining goes to plan, when do you expect to deploy
will be mostly open-skimming of surface your first mining equipment?
materials. Additionally, the lunar gravity We intend to send prospecting sensors on our
is of tremendous benefit because it means first mission. Our second mission will involve
equipment used on Earth for gold or platinum further prospecting and proof-of-concept for
mining can be modified to work there. our mining techniques. Then, in our third

28 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


For more interviews and to add your comments, visit newscientist.com/opinion

mission, we will bring back a sample. We


expect the first decade to be mostly data
gathering and prospecting, and the second
decade to begin deployment of industrial-scale
resource extraction and processing systems.

What kind of mining equipment will you use?


Early moon-mining robots can be surprisingly
small – we do not need to start with the
gargantuan machines we see on Earth. Robots
the size of a desk can process an impressive
amount of volatile and mineral materials,
which will provide the proofs of concept
needed for larger investments. NASA’s
RESOLVE robot, designed to retrieve water on
the moon, and its RASSOR robot, made to dig
soil, are typical examples of scalable systems.

Can you legally ship away chunks of the moon?


The United Nations’ Outer Space Treaty says
no nation can lay claim to it.
The moon is like international waters on Earth.
No one owns international waters but private
companies can use their own resources to
find, say, oil or fish. They get to exploit the
ocean’s resources without owning the land
around it. We won’t own the moon but will,
similarly, mine some of its resources.

“Why go to an asteroid when


the moon has aggregated
them for billions of years?”
Ten years ago, several companies planned lunar
missions that ultimately never happened. What
makes these plans more likely to be realised?
SpaceX has blazed a trail into commercial
space access. Our investors are excited about
the Moon Express business model, reducing
the cost of lunar access and enabling a new era
of lunar economies. And on the technology
side, there have been significant advances in
four areas: propulsion, avionics, commercially
available launchers and spacecraft design.
Today we can create small spacecraft that
were not even possible 10 years ago.

Some entrepreneurs are talking about mining


the seabed on Earth. Have you considered that?
We are focused on the unlimited resources of
space – to promote a space-faring civilisation,
and also to address needs here on Earth. The
prudent utilisation of Earth’s resources should
continue, but not at the expense of our fragile
biosphere or of the quality of terrestrial life.
Earth’s resources cannot support a multi-
brian Smale

world civilisation – we need to learn to “live


off the land” as we move off-planet. n

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 29


OPINION LETTERS

Seeds of variety bred by such groups. So if there This progress is recognised in


are 50,000 species, there are the fifth edition of the Diagnostic
From Dennis Nicholls millions of cultivars, many of and Statistical Manual of Mental
Well done on highlighting the which are now rapidly being lost Disorders (DSM-5). It represents
importance of the many varieties to the world. We need to ensure the strongest system available
of banana as a food crop. You their survival. for classifying disorders.
stated that the fruit is the fourth Canberra, ACT, Australia Efforts like the US National
most important food crop Institute of Mental Health’s
internationally, following wheat, Research Domain Criteria (RDoC)
rice and maize (20 April, p 38). Just add salt project, with its emphasis on
This got me thinking about the neurobiology, are vital to the
importance of diversity in our From Steve Phillips continued progress of our
edible plants. Your feature on uneven global collective understanding of
The Food and Agricultural distribution of sea level rise as ice mental disorders. But such an
Organization of the United sheets melt highlights a double Adding salt to the water would approach cannot serve us in
Nations suggests there are whammy for northern Europe: increase the local albedo, or the here and now, and cannot
50,000 such species. There are greater sea level rise coupled with reflectivity, of the water and also supplant DSM-5.
those who suggest the world cooling from a slowing of the Gulf reduce acidification due to carbon RDoC is a complementary
will need to look beyond the 15 Stream (4 May, p 36). dioxide. Moreover, widespread endeavour to move us forward,
or so species grown in industrial The cause, an influx of fresh dumping of salt should have which may one day see
agriculture to ensure diversity water from Greenland, suggests less impact on the ocean breakthroughs that will
and hence stable food supply in that an abundant benign material environment than other proposed revolutionise our field.
the face of threats like disease could avert the Gulf Stream geoengineering solutions. However, every day we are
and climate change. problem – salt. NASA estimates an Admittedly, current global salt dealing with impairment or
Having worked among annual influx of about 200 cubic production is only about 3 per tangible suffering, and must
subsistence farmers, I am aware of kilometres of fresh water, which, cent of the amount required, but respond now. Our patients
the hundreds and even thousands based on the salinity of sea water, our wider mineral extraction deserve no less.
of cultivars of each subsistence would equate to a deficit of industries already transport Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US
food crop that may have been 7 gigatonnes of salt per year . considerably more than that per
year. I would also be interested From Jonathan Packer
to know if larger amounts of salt The move away from unscientific
Enigma Number 1750 dumping would increase the Freudian-type psychology to
transfer of warm water from the unscientific behaviourism-type

Navigating the grid tropics to northerly regions.


I wonder if there would be a
psychology has been equally
disastrous. The US National
ian kay similar way of influencing ocean Institute of Mental Health (NIMH)
Using the number grid shown (A) currents to reduce warm water has taken the first step to remedy
it is possible to generate nine-digit 1 2 3 transfer to the Antarctic? the situation, and to properly
numbers in the following way: Kraainem, Belgium investigate these serious
4 5 6
Start on any square and then neurological problems.
move horizontally, vertically or 7 8 9 Let’s see what is really behind
diagonally to an adjacent square
DIAGRAM A DIAGRAM B Psychiatry today them. That must be the way
that hasn’t already been visited. forward. Thank you, NIMH.
Repeat until all nine squares have Some of these are divisible by From David Kupfer, Osaka, Japan
been visited. For example, the path four (and only four) of the numbers chair of the DSM-5 Task Force
shown in diagram B generates the 1 to 9. The rest are divisible by You recently discussed the future
number 235968741. five (and only five) of the numbers of mental health research (11 May, Pain and rain
I have listed all the numbers 1 to 9. p 8). We have been telling patients
that can be generated in this way, How many numbers are there in for several decades that we are From Jamie Russell
and that end in a certain digit. my list? waiting for biomarkers for mental I have been ambivalent about
disorders. We’re still waiting. the pain ray since reading about
WIN £15 will be awarded to the sender of the first correct In the absence of such major its potential use as a non-lethal
answer opened on Wednesday 19 June. The Editor’s decision is final. discoveries, it is clinical experience weapon (11 May, p 44). Initially
Please send entries to Enigma 1750, New Scientist, Lacon House, and evidence, as well as growing I thought that the ability to
84 Theobald’s Road, London WC1X 8NS, or to [email protected] empirical research, that have incapacitate in a conflict without
(please include your postal address). advanced our understanding maiming or killing was a step in
Answer to 1744 Clive’s number: CLIVE is 37125 of conditions such as autism the right direction.
The winner Simon Armstrong of Guisborough, Redcar and Cleveland, UK spectrum disorder, bipolar However, I recalled that
disorder and schizophrenia. waterboarding was described

30 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


To join the debate, visit newscientist.com/letters

by some, probably incorrectly, as from waste sound (4 May, p 34). a symptom of cognitive bias. She inventing and finding new and
having no lasting physical effects. So he will be disappointed to has simply elevated her beliefs to surprising solutions.
I wonder how long it will be learn that the energy generated the point where she sees them as Cheveley, Cambridgeshire, UK
before portable “pain rays” by the noise from a crowd of facts. For example, Alice believes
enter the interrogation room. about 80,000 people at an that the world she perceives via
West Malling, Kent, UK international football match at her senses is real. 400 and rising
Wembley stadium in London is Ashford, Kent, UK
From Alain Williams sufficient to cook only a couple From Iain Climie
The pain ray’s millimetre- of eggs. The news that atmospheric
wavelength microwaves are King’s Somborne, Hampshire, UK All art carbon dioxide levels have
stopped by the water in reached 400 parts per million
0.4 millimetres of skin, but they From Tony Chabot is depressing, but no surprise
can penetrate clothing. However, Bee careful (18 May, p 5). There has been
wet clothing might act like skin, precious little serious effort to
and so an easy defence could be From Nigel Raine, address the problem.
to soak your clothes. bee researcher, Royal Holloway, Even if net greenhouse gas
High Wycombe, University of London emissions from human activity
Buckinghamshire, UK The weight of peer-reviewed somehow became neutral –
scientific evidence does indeed through carbon capture and
suggest that field-relevant storage, say – the genie may still
Pet detectives exposure to neonicotinoid be out of the bottle with regard to
pesticides can have adverse effects climate change. There is a time lag
From Steve Dalton on bees (4 May, p 6). But whether of decades between changes in gas
Feedback highlighted that a gated the EU moratorium on the use of levels and temperature changes.
housing development in Texas these chemicals will benefit bees Whitchurch, Hampshire, UK
was taking swabs from residents’ depends on what alternative pest In response to Nick Craddock’s
dogs so that any faeces left on control is used. article hoping that psychiatry
sidewalks could be traced back to Bees are exposed to multiple gets its Higgs boson moment For the record
their pets (13 April). pesticides when foraging, so the (27 April, p 30), Jeremy Holmes
Perhaps we should applaud risk assessment for pesticides suggested that the discipline n Ei! The look at a common origin for
them for realising that a simple should take account of this, “is inherently a marriage of art seven families of Eurasian languages
pack of swabs makes a cheap as well as potential sub-lethal and science” (11 May, p 31). I half (11 May, p 10) included a map showing
deterrent for those who don’t behavioural effects and longer- agree: it is art. Estonia in the Indo-European family.
clear up after their dog, given the term impacts. Kings Norton, West Midlands, UK In fact it is part of the Uralic family.
fear of naming and shaming, with Each year, insects provide n In our review of Frank Zelko’s book
no actual DNA analysis required. essential pollination worth at on the rise of Greenpeace (27 April,
Chipstead, Kent, UK least £440 million to UK Strange thoughts p 50), Fred Pearce said the group
agriculture. Pesticides are a “began in the US”. In fact, Greenpeace
crucial tool for achieving high From Trevor Jones was founded in Vancouver, Canada.
So much hot air levels of crop production. Both Douglas Hofstadter and n A bleak future was reported
have clear benefits. We need to Emmanuel Sander speculate on for the painted turtle amid rising
From Frank Fahy, emeritus ensure that pesticides are used the pervading nature of analogy temperatures (11 May, p 16).
professor of engineering acoustics, in ways that minimise harm to in our thought processes, “from Researcher Rory Telemeco has
University of Southampton pollinating insects. throwaway remarks to deep asked us to clarify that the model
Benjamin Clayton ponders the Egham, Surrey, UK scientific and artistic insights” used in his research predicted the
idea of recovering useful energy (4 May, p 30). extinction of one local population
I’d point them to a statement on the Mississippi river, rather than
Reality check sometimes attributed to the the species as a whole.
German artist Paul Klee: “Art is
From Philip Duffy making the strange familiar and Letters should be sent to:
I must question David Hobday’s the familiar strange”. Letters to the Editor, New Scientist,
explanation of the illusion of self In their emphasis on the 84 Theobald’s Road, London WC1X 8NS
(27 April, p 35), with his example importance of analogical thinking Fax: +44 (0) 20 7611 1280
of Alice, who “knows enough to in making the strange familiar, Email: [email protected]
live a healthy, happy life, and of bringing order out of chaos,
Include your full postal address and telephone
expects to die and be reduced to Hofstadter and Sander underplay number, and a reference (issue, page number, title)
ash. She has no beliefs.” its importance in making the to articles. We reserve the right to edit letters.
Reed Business Information reserves the right to
Alice may think that she exists familiar strange – which is an use any submissions sent to the letters column of
without beliefs, but this is in itself important part of discovering, New Scientist magazine, in any other format.

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 31


Jonathan Burton

32 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


COVER STORY

Old schooled
Learning like a child is a cinch if you know how, says David Robson

S
ome 36-year-olds choose to collect childhood is overrated,” says Gary Marcus, critical period,” says Daphne Bavelier at the
vintage wine, vinyl records or sports a psychologist at New York University. University of Rochester, New York.
memorabilia. For Richard Simcott, it What’s more, we now understand the best These are extreme circumstances, of course,
is languages. His itch to learn has led him to techniques to accelerate knowledge and skill but the evidence suggested that the same
study more than 30 foreign tongues – and acquisition in adults, so can perhaps unveil neural fossilisation would stifle other kinds
he’s not ready to give up. a few tricks of the trade of super-learners of learning. Many of the studies looked at
During our conversation in a London like Simcott. Whatever you want to learn, language development – particularly in
restaurant, he reels off sentences in Spanish, it’s never too late to charge those grey cells. families of immigrants. While the children
Turkish and Icelandic as easily as I can name The idea that the mind fossilises as it picked up new tongues with ease, their
the pizza and pasta on our menu. He has ages is culturally entrenched. The phrase parents were still stuttering broken sentences.
learned Dutch on the streets of Rotterdam, “an old dog will learn no tricks” is recorded But if there is a critical period for foreign
Czech in Prague and Polish during a house in an 18th century book of proverbs and language learning, everyone should be
share with some architects. At home, he is probably hundreds of years older. affected equally; Simcott’s ability to master
talks to his wife in fluent Macedonian. When researchers finally began to a host of languages should be as impossible
What’s remarkable about Simcott isn’t just as a dog playing the piano.
the number and diversity of languages he has
mastered. It’s his age. Long before grey hairs
”The idea that the mind Bearing this in mind, Ellen Bialystok at York
University in Toronto, Canada, recently turned
appear and waistlines expand, the mind’s cogs fossilises is entrenched, to the US census records, which detailed the
are meant to seize up, making it difficult to but old dogs are better linguistic skills of more than 2 million Hispanic
pick up any new skill, be it a language, the and Chinese immigrants. A “critical period” for
flute, or archery. Even if Simcott had primed learners than we thought” learning a second language in infancy should
his mind for new languages while at school, have created a sharp difference between those
he should have faced a steep decline in his investigate the adult brain’s malleability in who had moved country in early childhood
abilities as the years went by – yet he still the 1960s, their results appeared to agree with and those who were uprooted in adolescence.
devours unfamiliar grammars and strange the saying. Most insights came indirectly from In reality? “There was absolutely no
vocabularies to a high level. “My linguistic studies of perception, which suggested that discontinuity,” Bialystok says. Instead, she
landscape is always changing,” he says. “If an individual’s visual abilities were capped at saw a very gradual decline with age among
you’re school-aged, or middle-aged – I don’t a young age. For example, restricting young immigrants – which could reflect differences in
think there’s a big difference.” animals’ vision for a few weeks after birth environment as much as the adults’ rusty brain
A decade ago, few neuroscientists would means they will never manage to see circuits. “People talk more slowly and clearly to
have agreed that adults can rival the learning normally. The same is true for people born children in short, simple sentences,” she says.
talents of children. But we needn’t be so with cataracts or a lazy eye – repair too late, “And the child’s entire social and educational
defeatist. The mature brain, it turns out, is and the brain fails to use the eye properly network is organised around that language.”
more supple than anyone thought. “The idea for life. “For a very long time, it seemed that Yet while Bialystok’s study suggested that
that there’s a critical period for learning in those constraints were set in stone after that adult brains are more pliable than had once >

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 33


Adults often agonise senior citizens aged 60 to 80 began with some
over how to do a task hesitation, but they soon caught up with the
rather than throwing 30-year-olds and by the end of the trials all the
themselves into it adults were juggling more confidently than
the 5 to 10-year-olds.
Old dogs, then, are much more adaptable
than folklore would have it – and if we do
have deficits, they aren’t insurmountable.
The reason that children appear to be better
Lucas Jackson/reuters

learners may have more to do with their


environment, and factors such as physical
fitness (see “Faster body, faster mind”, left).
Indeed, many researchers believe that an
adult’s lifestyle may be the biggest obstacle.
“A child’s sole occupation is learning to speak
been imagined, there was still the suspicion and move around,” says Ed Cooke, a cognitive
that children might have the edge in certain Faster body, faster mind scientist who has won many memory contests.
skills. Adult learners sometimes find it harder “If an adult had that kind of time to spend on
to learn to sing in tune, hit a home run or The key to a spry mind in old age may be attentive learning, I’d be very disappointed if
mimic an accent convincingly. At first glance, as simple as a walk in the park. they didn’t do a good job.”
the problem might seem to lie in adults’ Over the past few years, it has become A glut of free time and a carefree existence
perception and motor skills. Learning clear that poor physical fitness – including are out of reach for most of us, but there
involving these abilities differs from the factors such as obesity and cardiovascular are other behaviours that boost children’s
acquisition of factual knowledge, because it health – can be as damaging to our brains learning, and these habits can be easily
needs us to rewire the eyes, ears and muscles. as they are to our sex appeal, reducing integrated into even an adult’s schedule.
It’s something that Marcus can identify the long-distance connections between For example, children are continually quizzed
with. At the age of 38, he devoted himself to neurons and shrinking the hippocampus, on what they know – and for good reason:
learning the guitar, an experience he detailed which is involved in learning and memory. countless studies have shown that testing
in his book Guitar Zero. “My family’s initial For this reason, the general decline in doubles long-term recall, outperforming
response was laughter – but they soon saw health as we age may also contribute all other memory tactics. Yet most adults
I was making progress,” he says. Still, during to the gradual decrease in mental skills – attempting to learn new skills will rely
his research, he attended a musical summer including our capacity to learn new skills, more on self-testing which, let’s be honest,
camp for 8 to 15-year-olds. He says he was fuelling the idea that you can’t teach an happens less often.
quicker to catch on to the structure of songs, old dog new tricks (see main story). That’s why Cooke developed a website,
but his younger bandmates had better Thankfully, the changes are reversible, called Memrise, which helps take some of the
coordination and sense of pitch. according to Arthur Kramer, who has pain out of testing and, crucially, can integrate
Yet the available evidence hints that worked with senior citizens in his lab learning into the adult day. It is designed to
children may not always be inherently better at the University of Illinois at Urbana- track your learning curve with cunningly
at such tasks. One study by Yang Zhang at the Champaign. Typically, the studies timed tests that force you to retrieve the
University of Minnesota in Minneapolis that demanded a mild exercise regime, asking information just as you are about to forget it.
focused on the acquisition of foreign accents volunteers to walk for 40-minute periods, “Memrise engages your brain to the greatest
in adults suggests we may simply be suffering 3 days a week for a year, for example.
from poor tuition. When the researchers “I wouldn’t say these old folks would win
gave them recordings that mimicked the any races, but they could certainly go
”An adult’s lifestyle may
exaggerated baby talk of cooing mothers, further and faster by the end,” he says. be the biggest obstacle,
the adult learners progressed rapidly. Imaging their brains before and after
but it needn’t be if we use
Nor do adults necessarily fumble over the training, he found that hippocampi
intricate movements that are crucial for had expanded, perhaps through the the right techniques”
music or sport. When volunteers visiting growth of new brain cells or an increase in
Virginia Penhune’s lab at Concordia synaptic connections between neurons. possible extent,” says Cooke, who has himself
University in Montreal, Canada, learned to Just as importantly, much of the used the site to learn thousands of words of
press keys in a certain sequence, at certain long-distance communication across the foreign vocabulary. Users can create their own
times – essentially a boiled-down version brain was restored to its former glory. courses – the topics range from art to zoology –
of keyboard practice – the adults tended to “The senior citizens’ connectivity was and importantly, it is easy to load the site in
outshine the younger volunteers. equivalent to a 30-year-old’s,” says the few spare minutes of your lunch break or
During a more challenging test of hand-eye Kramer. The result is a general cognitive while you are waiting for a train. Cooke also
coordination, nearly 1000 volunteers of all age boost, including improved attention, plans to launch a smartphone app.
groups learned to juggle over a series of six which should aid learning of any new skill. What about tasks that involve perceptual
training sessions. As you might expect, the learning or motor skills – like battling against

34 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


a lifetime of tone deafness, or perfecting larynx or the placement of the tongue. Study Instead, you do better to take a carousel
that golf swing? Here too, there are guiding after study shows that simply shifting your approach, quickly rotating through the
principles that can help you rediscover the mindset in this way accelerates your learning – different skills to be practised without
seemingly effortless learning of youth. perhaps by encouraging the subconscious, lingering too long on each one. Although the
Adults can hamper progress with their automatic movements that mark proficiency. reason is still unclear, it seems that jumping
own perfectionism: whereas children throw Misplaced conscientiousness may also between skills makes your mind work a little
themselves into tasks, adults often agonise lead adults to rely on overly rigid practice harder when applying what you’ve learned,
over the mechanics of the movements, trying regimes that stifle long-term learning. The helping you to retain the knowledge in the
to conceptualise exactly what is required. long term – a finding that has helped people
This could be one of our biggest downfalls. ”Study after study shows improve in activities ranging from tennis
“Adults think so much more about what and kayaking to pistol shooting.
they are doing,” says Gabriele Wulf at the that simply shifting your Such an approach might not be to
University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “Children mindset a certain way everyone’s taste – with intricate skills, it
just copy what they see.” might feel like you are making no progress.
Wulf’s work over the past decade shows can accelerate learning” But even if you do revert to stints of lengthy
that you should focus on the outcome of practice, you can still reap some of the same
your actions rather than the intricacies of the adult talent for perseverance, it seems, is not benefits by occasionally trying out your skills
movements. She applies this finding in her always a virtue. Left to their own devices, most in an unfamiliar situation. In tennis, you
own life: as a keen golfer, she has found it is people segment their sessions into separate might move to a different part of the court
better to think about the swing of the club, for blocks – when learning basketball, for for a couple of serves before returning to
instance, rather than the position of her hands. instance, they may work on each shot in turn, the regular position; while playing scales
“I’m always trying to find where best to focus perhaps because they feel a desire to master it. on a musical instrument, you might switch
my attention,” she says. Similarly, if you are The approach may bring rapid improvements hands temporarily. According to work by
learning to sing, then you should concentrate at first, but a host of studies have found that Arnaud Boutin at the Leibniz Research
on the tone of the voice, rather than on the the refined technique is soon forgotten. Centre for Working Environment and
Human Factors in Dortmund, Germany,
venturing out of your comfort zone in this
way helps to ensure that you improve your
overall performance rather than confining
your progress to the single task at hand.
“Otherwise, the longer you practise, the
harder it becomes to transfer the skills that
you’ve learned to new situations,” says Boutin.
If none of that helps you learn like a child,
simply adopting the arrogance of youth may
do no harm. “As we get older, we lose our
confidence, and I’m convinced that has a big
impact on performance,” says Wulf. To test the
assumption, she recently trained a small group
of people to pitch a ball. While half were given
no encouragement, she offered the others a
sham test, rigged to demonstrate that their
abilities were above average. They learned to
pitch on target with much greater accuracy
than those who didn’t get an ego boost.
Whether your itch to learn will ever match
Simcott’s appetite for foreign languages
is another matter. “What I do – it’s like an
extreme sport. There’s no need to learn that
many languages,” he says. He has recently
turned to Chinese, and has no plans to stop
after that. “I’m like a linguistic butterfly.
There’s always another, really far away, that
suddenly feels appealing.”
Still, embrace the idea that your mind is as
capable as Simcott’s, and the lure of extreme
learning might take hold of you too. n

David Robson is a features editor at New Scientist

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 35


Daniel Luong-Van/National Science Foundation

Pole position The most inhospitable places on Earth are


the best spots to witness the birth of the
universe, finds Govert Schilling

36 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


Braving the extremes is University of Chicago doesn’t seem to mind smaller than an atom to roughly the size of
all in a day’s work at the the extreme cold and remoteness of this a grapefruit. Luckily for us, inflation came
South Pole Telescope barren place at the bottom of the world. After to a halt when the cosmic clock marked
all, the station has its own music room, bar, 10-33 seconds or so, and a more sedate form of
even sauna – probably the hottest place on the expansion took over, allowing the subsequent
continent. Still, Benson’s enthusiasm mainly formation of galaxies, stars and planets.
stems from his work. He and his colleagues Inflation is a popular idea, supported by
are hot on the trail of a revolutionary quantum physics and, to some extent, by
breakthrough in cosmology. Using a sensitive evidence from missions such as ESA’s Planck
camera installed at the telescope just over a explorer and NASA’s Wilkinson Microwave
year ago, they hope to shed light on the first Anisotropy Probe. It solves a number of
trillionth of a trillionth of a trillionth of a nagging problems in cosmology. For example,
second after the birth of the universe. If that it explains density variations in the early
requires some sacrifices, so be it. “The South universe as “blow-ups” of tiny quantum
Pole is one of the best places on Earth to do this fluctuations. It may even be related to the
kind of research,” Benson says, as he wipes ice strange dark energy that appears to be
crystals from his beard. accelerating cosmic expansion today.
The newborn universe was incredibly
dense, insanely hot and filled with energetic
radiation. As the universe expanded and Penetrating the darkness
cooled, the radiation’s energy became diluted Even so, frustratingly little is known about the
and its wavelength was stretched until, almost physics of inflation. Many different models
14 billion years later, nothing is left but an all- have been proposed, and astronomers aren’t
pervading glow of microwaves. Studying this even entirely sure that it really happened.
cosmic microwave background (CMB), often Without being able to look back all the way
dubbed the “afterglow of creation”, is the best to an inflationary epoch, it seems impossible
way for cosmologists to decipher the infancy to tell which model, if any, is right.
and subsequent evolution of the cosmos. For But there might be a way. Over the past
instance, minute temperature variations in decade, cosmologists started to realise that
the CMB, which were first discovered by space the sudden ending of inflation must have
missions in the 1990s, revealed the existence sent shudders through space-time known
of over-dense and under-dense patches of as gravitational waves, whose existence was
primordial matter that grew into the galaxy predicted by Einstein’s general theory of
clusters and voids we see in the universe today. relativity. Unlike radiation, these primordial
The South Pole Telescope was built six years gravitational waves could travel through the
ago to study the CMB in detail. However, hot early universe, so their frequency and
while CMB observations from the South Pole power tells us about the state of the universe
Telescope and others can give us an excellent at the time inflation ceased.
picture of the universe a mere 380,000 years Primordial gravitational waves are too
after the big bang, they can’t go any further faint to be picked up by some experiments,
back. At earlier times, space was filled with such as the twin Laser Interferometer

I
T IS one of the biggest telescopes on the a seething plasma of charged particles that Gravitational Observatories in Hanford,
planet, yet it looks remarkably small constantly absorbed and re-emitted photons, Washington, and Livingston, Louisiana, which
against the vast Antarctic landscape. meaning that light couldn’t escape. Only when were built to spot the ripples through space-
In this blindingly white icy world where the temperatures eventually dropped low enough time sent out by colliding black holes or
December sun never sets, it is hard to judge for these particles to combine into neutral neutron stars. Yet such waves should still leave
distances. The true size of the South Pole atoms could radiation, and therefore light, a telltale pattern in the cosmic microwave
Telescope’s 10-metre-wide dish only becomes propagate freely through the universe. So we background. Detecting and characterising that
apparent when our small tracked vehicle may have a baby photo of the universe from pattern might allow us to distinguish between
pulls up next to the building that houses it. the moment the cosmos became transparent, various models of inflation.
No one considers walking here from the but we haven’t captured the instant of birth. That’s why Benson is so excited about his
US Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station just It’s a pity, says Benson, for theory tells us team’s new camera, the South Pole Telescope
a few hundred metres away. While a wind that exciting things happened in these very Polarimeter (SPTpol). It is designed to make
chill of almost -40 ˚C is considered balmy first fleeting moments. According to the detailed measurements of the polarisation
by residents at the station, my fingers grow hypothesis of cosmic inflation, the universe of the CMB radiation. In the same way that
numb soon after I take off my gloves to snap started to expand exponentially when it sunlight is polarised when it reflects from a
some pictures. And although I’m wearing was only about 10-36 seconds old, driven by lake or a road, the CMB radiation is polarised
goggles that cover half my face, wind-drawn a mysterious vacuum energy with negative as it scatters off electrons on its journey
tears freeze onto my eyelids. pressure. In a tiny fraction of a second, the through the universe. Gravitational waves are
Senior scientist Brad Benson of the observable universe expanded from a size predicted to subtly change the polarisation >

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 37


AMiBA in Hawaii (left),
EBEX detector (bottom
left) and the Atacama
Cosmology Telescope
(right)
Amiba/ASIAA

govert schilling
Asad Aboobaker

pattern. As they ripple through space-time, In fact that’s nothing. The Array for Space Research and Technology Centre in
they shift the electrons in a distinctive way Microwave Background Anisotropy, AMiBA, is Noordwijk, the Netherlands. He hopes Planck
and so leave their hallmark in the CMB (see some 3400 metres up on the slopes of Mauna will be first to detect the polarisation signal
diagram, far right). Loa on Hawaii. Conditions are particularly from inflationary gravitational waves.
Spotting that pattern is going to be tough – good – for telescopes, at least – in the Atacama But Planck’s detectors are not as sensitive as
a bit like listening for the sound of a cricket desert in Chile. Since 2012 the Polarbear some of the ground-based instruments, and
during a rock concert. The weak polarisation experiment to measure the CMB polarisation they are unable to observe the smallest-scale
signal from primordial gravitational waves is has been housed at an altitude of 5200 metres patterns. That gives other CMB polarisation
overwhelmed by a much stronger one from near the summit of Cerro Toco. Later this year, experiments an opportunity to take the lead.
density fluctuations in the early universe. it will be joined by the ACTPol camera at the And there are plenty of them.
This strong signal was first detected in 2002 nearby Atacama Cosmology Telescope. This Several are running at high-altitude
by a telescope called the Degree Angular Scale will provide the most sensitive measurement locations. Others dangling under balloons
Interferometer, also at the South Pole. No ever of the CMB polarisation, says Mike have recently flown high above Antarctica,
one knows how hard it will be to detect the Niemack of Cornell University in Ithaca, New Australia and New Mexico. The BICEP-2 device
gravitational-wave polarisation pattern, says York, who helped develop the detectors for has been running since 2009 on a small
Benson. “It’s a subtle effect,” says the South both the South Pole and Atacama telescopes telescope at the South Pole, while the EBEX
Pole Telescope’s principal investigator John and who now works on the Atacama team. detector completed a 25-day balloon flight
Carlstrom. So far, the best upper limits of Competition between the two teams is over Antarctica in January.
gravitational-wave polarisation were fierce, but friendly, says Niemack. And it won’t Yet more experiments are being planned.
obtained in 2006 and 2007 by yet another stop at the current generation of polarimeters. “What I can say for sure is that there will be
South Pole instrument, the Background The SPTPol team is already building a new, a lot of progress in the next few years,” says
Imaging of Cosmic Extragalactic Polarization upgraded instrument that will be ten times Spergel. He believes that confirming cosmic
(BICEP) experiment. as sensitive as its predecessor. Meanwhile,
Niemack and his collaborators are designing
an advanced version of ACTPol. Sensitivity,
High and dry angular resolution, frequency coverage and
How come so many CMB telescopes are sky coverage all have a role in the hunt for the
located at one of the most remote and elusive polarisation fingerprint of inflation.
inhospitable places on the planet? To observe “We don’t know the strength of the signal yet.
cosmic microwave radiation, you need to This is exploratory science,” says David
be high and dry. Atmospheric water vapour Spergel of Princeton University.
absorbs microwaves – the same principle that With so much at stake, many teams are on
makes a cup of water in your microwave oven the same treasure hunt. The Planck mission,
hot. As a result, you can’t observe the CMB at for instance, has been mapping the CMB in
sea level: there’s just too much water-laden unprecedented detail since its launch in 2009.
atmosphere above your telescope. And even on In March this year, the team published the
a high mountaintop, you need really dry air. most detailed maps ever made of the CMB
The South Pole is at an altitude of 2830 metres across the entire sky. They are still analysing
and the air is extremely dry, a fact evident to measurements from the satellite’s
every visitor. At times I find it hard to breathe, polarimeters. “We plan to publish our first The Polarbear
and climbing a flight of stairs is a difficulty. By polarimetry data about a year from now,” says experiment in Chile is
the end of the day, my lips feel like parchment. project scientist Jan Tauber of the European almost 5200 metres up

38 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


Fingerprint of inflation
The cosmic microwave background radiation is predicted to carry a distinct polarisation pattern
created by primordial gravitational waves that will tell us about the state of the universe at the time
inflation ceased. Many telescopes are racing to make the first detection
Gravitational waves stretch and
INFLATION
compress space-time, leaving
END OF Normal their mark as a polarising pattern
INFLATION polarisation pattern
Polarisation pattern
BIG caused by
BANG gravitational waves
GR
AV
ITA
TIO
NAL
WA
VE
SP
RO
PA
GA
TE

10-40

UNIVERSE OPAQUE PR LIGH


OP T
10 Light is effectively trapped AG
-30
AT
because it scatters from ES
electrons and protons

10-20
UNIVERSE
TRANSPARENT
Electrons and protons
10-10 combine to create
hydrogen, allowing
light to propagate
Time since big bang 1
(seconds)

1010

COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND


380,000 years after big bang TODAY
13.82 billion years (1017 seconds)

“While a wind chill of -40 °C inflation through CMB polarisation will be to point the 1.5-metre telescope during its
deserving of a physics Nobel prize. flight, but the effect on the final results is yet
is considered balmy by And who knows, the measurements may to be determined.
residents of the South Pole already have been collected – if not by SPTPol Witnessing how scientists like Benson leave
or Planck, then by BICEP-2 or EBEX. “We plan their comfortable homes for months on end
station, my tears freeze” to publish preliminary results this year,” to live a spartan life at the bottom of the world
says Jamie Bock, who is on the BICEP-2 team, makes you realise how serious they are about
“but we’re still analysing three years of more the quest for a firm proof of inflation. There’s
powerful data.” Analysis involves calibration, no guarantee of success. If the primordial
understanding exactly how the instrument waves are not strong enough, the telltale
processes signals and noise, and investigating polarisation pattern “may never be discovered”,
systematic errors. “It’s not easy,” says Bock, says Carlstrom. Which is not to say that
“you have to worry about everything.” inflation did not occur, he adds. “Based on
Bock claims that the sensitivity of BICEP-2 polarisation measurements, you will never
has got to “interesting levels”. But he won’t be be able to refute inflation.”
drawn on whether the team has found any Cosmologists aren’t disheartened by such
imprint of inflation yet: “I can’t say, and if I a prospect. Even seeing nothing at a certain
could, I couldn’t tell you.” level will enable them to rule out a broad
At the moment, the field is wide open. class of different inflationary models. “That’s
“We don’t know the level at which primordial progress,” says Spergel. n
gravitational waves produce CMB polarisation,”
says Shaul Hanany who leads the EBEX team, Govert Schilling is an astronomy writer based in
polarbear telescope

“so we also don’t know who will be the first Amersfoort, the Netherlands. He spent a week in
to detect the signal. But a detection might Antarctica and the South Pole in December 2012 as
come within the next two years or so.” EBEX a selected media visitor of the US National Science
suffered a glitch in one of the motors used Foundation’s Antarctic Program

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 39


OK computer

40 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


Adam Mitchinson/getty
Imagine controlling a machine with a simple hand wave or
“thumbs-up”. A new way of interacting with the digital world
will soon be a reality, says MacGregor Campbell

F
AMILY lore has it that my wife’s Yet this July, many are anticipating big have become free of instruments, so the
grandmother Cleo once had a problem things from a device made by Leap Motion, a gestures that were always there now emerge
with a mouse. When she first sat down to company based in San Francisco. It will launch into the daylight,” says Jacob Wobbrock,
learn how to use a computer, her four sons a $70 box that can be plugged into most a human-computer interaction researcher
crowded around, peppering her with advice. computers, with the ability to track ultra-fine at the University of Washington in Seattle.
“Move the pointer to the left,” one said. She hand and finger movements. The company “There is no question that a gesture
moved the mouse to the left. “Now move it to has not disclosed exactly how it works, but by vocabulary of sorts will enter further into the
the right.” No problem. “Now move the using a combination of infrared and optical psyche of today’s and future computer users.”
pointer up.” Cleo lifted the mouse off the table, cameras with clever software, the Leap can So what kinds of 3D gestures might we pick
surprised that the cursor refused to follow. detect gestures to a resolution of less than a up in the next few years? After all, the reverse-
It sounds silly, but her instinct was natural. millimetre, inside a half-metre-cubed region pinch gesture for touchscreens had to be
To make our computers understand us, we’ve of air. Leap Motion’s app store called Airspace learned – Apple even patented the move (see
had to squish our intuitive body movements will launch at the same time, with a host of “Patently absurd?”, page 43) – and if you
into the two-dimensional plane of the mouse gesture-controlled software ranging from demonstrated the movement to somebody
or touchscreen. That’s about to change. music to painting programs. only a decade ago, they would have had no
From public kiosks to your living room, idea what it meant. Might there be similar
this year everyday computers will begin to hand movements that we will use to trigger
understand our gestural vocabulary with Read the signals specific commands?
unprecedented precision, right down to ultra- Many think that it won’t be long before high- The Leap comes equipped with the ability to
fine finger movements. How will this change precision gesture detection can span entire recognise a few basic gestures like “key tap”, a
the way we interact with the digital world? rooms. For example, Jan Zizka and Alex Olwal single-finger tapping movement which might
Some advocates claim the mouse and of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s be used to bring up a keyboard on screen, for
keyboard will become obsolete. That’s just Media Lab have developed SpeckleSense, instance. And independent app developers are
hype. Gestural computing’s more interesting a device that uses laser-speckle – subtle training it to recognise their own gestures,
impact will be how it changes us – from the patterns caused by light waves of the same such as “thumbs-up”, which some have used
new language of fist bumps, finger shapes and frequency interfering with one another – to as a command to “like” a Facebook post.
hand signals we may be asked to learn, to an track motion with far greater precision and More clues about our future body language
affliction called “gorilla arm”. In turn, our range than the likes of Kinect. can be found from looking at gesture-
behaviour will shape the technology’s All of a sudden, then, the fidelity of gestural recognition prototypes developed in the
evolution. It’s time to wave goodbye to our language that computers can understand is lab over the past few years. Designers have
old notions of how we navigate digital space. poised to expand significantly. “The hands come up with a range of hand and arm >
The first computers able to recognise
human gestures emerged in the 1970s, when
researchers equipped people with batons or
wearable accelerometers. The crude resolution
of these technologies stopped them taking
off. Still, limited bodily gestures in two
dimensions were incorporated into personal
computers: using a mouse to drag a scroll bar
or double-click on a desktop icon required a
physical motion with the hand and arm,
rather than typing code. Multi-touch screens
added extra moves to our gestural lexicon: we
learned that spreading apart a pinched finger
and thumb on a screen, for example, zoomed
into a photo or a map.
Until very recently, however, most hand
WS photography/flickr/getty

and body language was invisible to computers.


While arm, leg, and torso positions can be used
to control video games – thanks to depth- The old Star Trek
sensing technology like Microsoft’s Kinect – greeting could soon
our computers, televisions and other devices take on an entirely
have largely stuck to more traditional means. different meaning

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 41


All in hand commands (see diagram, left).
All in hand These efforts suggest that the best gestural
Designers of gesture-recognition devices have
Designers
dreamed upofcountless
gesture-recognition
commands.devices have
Might the commands are novel moves that the user
dreamed
followingup countless
moves catch commands.
on? Might the must do quite deliberately – otherwise they

all photos: ws photography/flickr/getty


following moves catch on? risk accidentally triggering something on
screen. “We look for gestures that are easy to
do, but that aren’t used in normal
communication,” says Hrvoje Benko at
Microsoft Research in Redmond, Washington.
One of these gestures is to pinch all four
fingers together with the thumb to grab the
air, for example. This motion might allow you
to drag an object, like a file, across a screen.
Other researchers have experimented with
Switch on gesture recognition
gestures for resizing or rotating. Spreading browse, view, and organise video clips using
Switch on gesture recognition two raised fists apart can be used to zoom into 20 commands. Some moves were fairly
the screen using some versions of Kinect, for straightforward, such as holding the hand in
example, or turning a flat hand clockwise or the shape of a gun to point and select, but
anticlockwise will rotate an image. many involved positioning the arms in
strange arrangements, and led to criticism
that the commands were too difficult to learn.
Memory games One way around this memory issue is to
Which of these myriad gestures will catch on train people as they go, rather than ask them
is unclear, but we can be confident that there to learn gestures from diagrams or videos.
is a limit to how many we’ll be able to usefully One of Benko’s projects, called LightGuide,
Point and click remember. Gesture sets of 10 or more might helps with this problem by using a ceiling-
Point and click place a prohibitive strain on memory. “Once mounted projector to beam visual
you go past a few basic gestures, it gets really instructions onto a person’s body. The system
confusing,” says Chris Harrison of the Human- displays arrows directly onto the hands,
Computer Interaction Institute at Carnegie say, guiding them to the correct positions.
Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Or you could let people customise their
Finding a way to design a gesture own gestures – be it for switching off a
vocabulary that is useful for complex computer or turning down the volume on a
interaction, but simple enough to remember, television. In a recent experiment, Miguel
is an open challenge, says Jamie Zigelbaum, a Nacenta and colleagues at the University of
designer based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. St Andrews, UK, taught one group to use 16
In 2009, Zigelbaum and colleagues at the MIT predefined gestures, while another group got
Media Lab designed a catalogue of gestures for the opportunity to invent 16 hand movements
Undo a hand-recognition device called g-speak, themselves. The following day, participants
Undo
which is built by Oblong Industries in Los who had designed their own gestures were
Angeles. Their gesture set allowed users to able to recall up to 44 per cent more of them.

THE ELEVATOR PITCH

In the lobby of Microsoft Research in just walking by.


Grab and move Redmond, Washington, there’s an As computers come to recognise
Grab and move
elevator that reads you like a book. ever-more-detailed gestures (see
It is equipped with a camera main story), they will be able to infer
that peers at people in front of its more about us. Other researchers
doors. When someone approaches, have programmed computers to use
it will open – but only when it senses body language to infer a person’s
that the person is looking to use it. mood, be it happy, angry or sad. Such
The system has processed many “emotionally intelligent” machines
Zoom hours of video footage of people would better respond to our needs.
Zoom mingling in the lobby and has learned So if you are slouching in front of a
to distinguish between someone screen, bear in mind that a computer
intending to use it and someone may soon be watching.

42 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


Patently absurd?

It’s hard to believe that waving our the screen zooms in on an image.
arms, hands or fingers could spark Attempts to patent 2D gestures
heated patent litigation, but if the ultimately failed. Apple recently
history of the two-dimensional took Samsung to court over the
gestures on touchscreens is any latter’s use of the pinch-to-zoom and
precedent, such a fate awaits 3D swipe-to-unlock movements. In the
gesture interfaces, too. end, the US Patent and Trademark
A battle over 2D gestures began Office ruled Apple’s patents invalid
after a Silicon Valley party in the on the grounds that earlier
early 2000s, when Apple’s CEO Steve inventions used the ideas.
Jobs got riled by a Microsoft engineer An optimist might think that this
boasting about its stylus-controlled would discourage a similar landgrab
touchscreen Tablet PC. Jobs ordered over 3D gestures. Alas, it hasn’t.
his engineers to build their own Microsoft holds patents for Kinect
touch interface, but he was adamant that cover flicks of the hand to scroll
that it would use only hand gestures. on screen, or gestures that call up a
They came up with specific moves search box. And Intellectual Ventures
like pinch-to-zoom, tap-to-zoom of Bellevue, Washington, has filed
and swipe-to-unlock – which Apple a patent on a way to control a
quickly filed patents to protect. television that includes a raised
This sparked a gestural-patent “flat-hand” gesture to get its
landgrab. For instance, Google attention. The company is notorious
applied for a patent on a text- for aggressively protecting its
recognition gesture involving intellectual property too.
underlining words in a picture with a Litigation that tied the tech
swipe, while Nokia’s gesture patent industry in knots for the past few
applications included circular or oval years looks set to be repeated and,
swipes, with the size of the circle or as usual, the only winners will be
oval dictating the degree to which the lawyers. Paul Marks

Another human constraint that will shape to use a remote control to change slides, not So rather than killing off the keyboard or
the development of our gestural vocabularies gestures, because it was distracting. They did, mouse – which remain hard to beat for some
is the physicality required. The movements however, approve of gestures to interact with tasks – the gestures that catch on will become
will have to be something that people can do the slide content itself – pointing at a diagram, incorporated into the multifaceted language
repeatedly, over long chunks of time. for example – possibly because these gestures we use to communicate with computers.
In the early days of human-computer aren’t too removed from movements that Writing an essay? Use a keyboard. Moulding
interaction using touchscreens, researchers presenters already make, Fourney suggests. an object for your 3D printer, or sorting
identified an affliction that they dubbed Another factor shaping our nascent gestural through files? Fingers and hands may be
“gorilla arm” – in which one’s arm feels heavy vocabulary will be that we tend to look silly better. Human-computer interaction
after waving it about for too long. It is no waving our hands around in the air. One researchers nowadays call this “multi-modal”
problem for phones or tablets sitting on your sociological study of how families use Kinect interaction. “When a new mode of interaction
lap, but the ache soon strikes for any device games in the home, by Richard Harper and comes to life, it doesn’t kill off the other ones.
that requires you to reach out the arms Helena Mentis of Microsoft Research in It extends the possibilities, makes new
continually – a wall-mounted screen, for Cambridge, UK, suggests that the fun comes interactions possible,” says Benko.
instance. Gestural systems that require from participants laughing at one another as The true impact of gestural computing,
expressive hand movements in the air, then, then, will be that it adds a channel of
are likely to cause a lot more gorilla arms, so communication we’ve never been able to use
more subtle moves may well come to rule.
”Some gestures are not only before. We have always had myriad ways to
The same physicality that can make tiring but inappropriate. convey meaning to fellow human beings – be
gestures tiring can also make them
inappropriate in certain settings. For example,
We tend to look silly waving it voice, text or body language – but until now,
our computers have been blind to many of
in a 2010 experiment conducted by Adam our hands around in the air” these cues. When Grandma Cleo lifted her
Fourney at the University of Waterloo, in mouse off the desk, it made perfect sense.
Ontario, Canada, presenters used a gesture- they contort their bodies. While technology If she had lived to see it, she may well have
based slide-show system in a classroom for has changed social norms before, having to appreciated this moment in time in which
two weeks. They could use gestures both to perform a similar dance routine might not machines are finally coming to understand
navigate back and forth through the slides, be so desirable in settings like the workplace. our language, instead of us struggling to
and interact with slide content by, for “It would force us to use our bodies like a understand theirs. n
example, zooming into figures, and ballerina uses hers. With exceptional control,
highlighting and expanding bullet points. strength and discipline,” says Harper. “That MacGregor Campbell is a New Scientist consultant
Yet students said they preferred the presenters would be exhausting to the spirit.” based in Portland, Oregon

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 43


T
Can desert be turned HE smell of ammonia wafts past me as island of glass and greenery (pictured on page
I stand next to the world’s largest urea 47) is that there is no external supply of either
into fertile oases using and ammonia factory, clutching the gas water or electricity – the plants are kept cool
nothing but seawater mask I’ve been issued as a precaution. Gas
flares glint through the desert haze. This is
and watered using only sunlight and seawater.
Some see this pilot project as the first
and sunshine? Yes, Mesaieed, a closed industrial city ringed by step towards turning hundreds of square

discovers Fred Pearce, security cordons in the Gulf state of Qatar – and
the unlikely setting for a remarkable oasis.
kilometres of parched coastal desert into
fertile farms. The head of the project,
but at a price... The heart of this oasis is a greenhouse Norwegian biologist Joakim Hauge, has an
full of cucumbers. But this is no ordinary even bigger dream. He wants to do nothing
greenhouse: it is delightfully cool inside, less than revegetate the desert. And the claim
despite the desert heat. Surrounding it are a isn’t as crazy as it might sound.
series of small garden plots growing desert The heart of this prototype is the
plants, each walled in by what look like greenhouse. Worldwide, greenhouses are an
cardboard hedges. Their effect is startling. ever more popular way to grow high-value
When I step downwind of a hedge, the air vegetables and flowers. In their controlled
temperature instantly drops, as if I have set environment, it is possible to get much
foot in front of a powerful air conditioner. higher yields than outdoors, making up for
And next to the plots is an array of mirrors for the higher costs. But with their insatiable
concentrating the power of the desert sun. thirst for water and need for heating in winter,
The most remarkable thing about this little most greenhouses are not very green.

Just add
seawater
MICHAEL POLIZA/NGS

44 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


This greenhouse is different. For starters, heading to Qatar. “We plan to grow 1200 When desert meets sea
whereas greenhouses in temperate lands cucumbers per square metre per year in here,”
are mostly for keeping crops warm, here in he says. So far it’s going well – Clarkson was In a large-scale seawater greenhouse facility,
the vision is that nearly half the land area would
Qatar the main task is keeping them cool. about to harvest his second crop of baby be devoted to greening the desert
This, says Hauge as we tour the site, is done cucumbers.
by evaporative cooling. The ultimate test has yet to come. During my Native plants and trees for Outside Salt-tolerant
revegetating desert crops plants grown
At the front of the greenhouse, facing into visit, in March, temperatures outside were in in seawater
the prevailing northwesterly wind, is a wall of the 30s, but in the low 20s in the greenhouse.
honeycombed cardboard. It is kept constantly In August, it can reach 50 °C outside, but the
wet, cooling and moistening the air that enters greenhouse needs to stay below 30 °C for
the greenhouse. The clever part is that no crops to thrive. Hauge is confident that it will.
precious fresh water is wasted on this task; As head of the rather grandly named Sahara
instead, it is done with seawater. The owner Forest Project, the private Norwegian
of this industrial complex and one of the company that built and runs the prototype, Greenhouse for
project’s funders, the Qatar Fertiliser Company he has a lot riding on its success. high-value crops

Farming algae
(QAFCO), has built a network of pipes to deliver Keeping the greenhouse cool and humid
seawater for cooling, and the greenhouse taps reduces the plants’ need for fresh water, but it Solar mirrors to
power desalinator Buildings and
into that supply. still has to come from somewhere. The answer and other machinery equipment
Inside, in the cool created by the wet again is seawater. A concentrated solar power

production
cardboard, I met Stephen Clarkson, who grew system provides the heat and electricity

Salt
cucumbers in the UK for 40 years before needed to desalinate seawater for irrigation,

as well as power all the pumps, fans and


other machinery. This is the purpose of the
300 square metres of parabolic mirrors,
which track the sun and focus its rays onto
a pipe containing oil.
But the prototype is more than just a
souped-up greenhouse. The aim is to use
seawater to maximum effect, Virginia Corless,
an astrophysicist recruited as the project’s
science manager, told me as we headed
outside. “What we have is a cascade of uses
for the seawater.”
Some goes straight into ponds for growing
marine algae. Algae farms are in their infancy,
says Patrick Brading, a marine biologist fresh
from the University of Essex in the UK, who
was preparing a batch of algae for release into
a pond. “A lot of basic things are still unknown.
I am trying to answer those questions, and it is
brilliant to work here with a constant supply
of brine to do open-air experiments.”
In theory, the algal ponds could provide
anything from feedstock for pharmaceuticals
and food supplements to food for livestock
and farmed fish, Brading says. There are also
plans to use seawater to grow a range of native
salt-tolerant plants, which could be used for a
similar range of purposes.
The leftover brine from all these processes –
with a salt content of 10 to 15 per cent – is used
to wet the cardboard honeycombs around the
small garden plots. “We call them evaporative
hedges,” Corless says. Their cooling effect
allows desert plants and a few tough herbs and
crops to grow where none would grow before.
The plots are planted with a variety of grasses,
as well as barley, rocket and medicinal plants
such as aloe vera. The aim is ecosystem
rehabilitation, not just desert farming.
The long-term plan, she says, is to grow
Adding water – here trees as well, which should eventually take
from natural rainfall – over the cooling role of the cardboard hedges.
transforms deserts Brine from the hedges, now with a >

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 45


”The effect is startling: the built in Oman in 2004 on land vacated by in favour of desalination using concentrated
farmers for want of fresh water, still produces solar power, though the Qatar greenhouse
air temperature instantly crops – and occasional research papers. does also collect moisture that condenses
drops when I step behind Most recently, Paton’s company helped on the inside of the roof at night. Solar
design the Qatar project and was also involved desalination is simply more efficient, Hauge
the cardboard hedge” in building a separate project, a trial seawater told me as we watched the sun beat down on
greenhouse in South Australia that is now the mirrors.
salinity of around 30 per cent, is pumped to selling tomatoes to supermarkets in Adelaide.
evaporation ponds to produce salt. This can But he disagreed with some of the changes
be sold, and also avoids the need to dump made by his partners and severed his links Costly cucumbers
extremely salty waste water back in the sea, with both projects last year. But this high-tech approach does add to the
which can harm marine life. One change in particular concerned him. considerable price tag. Back in Doha after our
None of these technologies is new, says Paton came up with his idea during a holiday day in the desert, I went through some back-
Corless, but they have never been put together in the Moroccan desert, when the windows of-the-envelope sums with Hauge. The Qatari
before. Well, not quite like this. The seawater inside his bus steamed up during a rainstorm greenhouse cost $6 million to build, with
greenhouse was actually devised two decades and left a towel he was using as a pillow soaking the money coming from QAFCO and the
ago by British inventor Charlie Paton, who wet. His greenhouse design exploits this effect Norwegian agrochemicals company Yara.
set aside a successful career devising special for desalination: cool seawater is pumped Given the anticipated annual harvest of
lighting effects for films and theatres to through a maze of pipes in a roof cavity, and 720,000 cucumbers for 10 years, that would
pursue a vision of growing crops in deserts. fresh water condenses out of the air – made work out at a capital cost of almost a dollar per
I have written about his work before, and humid by the seawater evaporators – onto the cucumber, even without overheads. That is
before I left for Qatar I visited him at his outside of the pipes. The system can produce spectacularly expensive: cucumbers were on
lab-cum-home in east London. up to 20 litres of water a day per square metre sale in the Doha souks for a fifth of the price.
Paton has built several pilot greenhouses of greenhouse – more, says Paton proudly, Together with the fact that the pilot project
to test his ideas. They have won architectural than falls in a rainforest. was hurriedly constructed to showcase at the
and environmental prizes, but so far they have But this elegant scheme failed to impress UN climate conference in Qatar last December,
failed to catch on. Two – including the first his partners. The Australians say that the some might wonder if the project is just an
ever seawater greenhouse, built on Tenerife in condenser pipes were a nightmare because expensive publicity exercise, I suggested to
1992 – have since been abandoned. Only one, they sprang leaks. Both projects ditched them Hauge. No, he insisted. His partners were

A briny business
A coastal greenhouse would make maximum use of seawater – for cooling, for growing algae and salt-tolerant plants,
as well as to provide fresh water for irrigation

Salt water
Fresh water
SEAWATER
Salinity
~3.5%
SOLAR
DESALINATOR
Fresh water
for irrigation
ALGAL SALT-
PONDS TOLERANT
EVAPORATORS PLANTS
Cooling for
greenhouse Biomass
harvested for
biofuel
GREENHOUSE or fodder
For growing
cash crops Salinity
~10% Evaporation
Salinity Salinity of brine to
OUTDOOR PLOTS ~10% ~10% produce salt
Revive desert
ecosystems SALT
PONDS

EVAPORATORS
Cooling for outdoor plots

Salinity
~30%

46 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


serious. Of course the cucumbers from the Unlikely oasis: the Qatar
prototype are expensive, but it was built to prototype is built in
carry out research, not to make money. the shadow of a giant
“Economically, this kind of farming is only industrial complex
feasible at a large scale.”
And there are plans to go large in Jordan,
which is one of the most water-stressed
countries in the world and increasingly reliant
on food imports. Later this year, the Sahara
Forest Project hopes to start building a facility
near the Red Sea 20 times larger than the Qatar
pilot. If all goes well, the idea is to expand to
200 hectares, and eventually to 3000.
In such a billion-dollar megaproject, the
vision is that up to half of the area would
be devoted to vegetating the desert with
everything from dune grasses to native trees,
such as the nitrogen-fixing thorn acacia
(Acacia tortilis). Over time, as trees grow from the sun and wind. What isn’t clear is Paton has a similar vision. He says the
and the soil improves, these plots will need what will happen to the untouched land a technology could save 20,000 hectares of
less assistance, allowing resources to be little further away. Simple modelling done greenhouses in Almeria in southern Spain,
switched to other areas. “This is not just for the Sahara Forest Project in 2009 suggests which supply fruit and vegetables to much
about sustainable agriculture. It is about such greening will not produce significantly of Europe but are now running out of
restorative ecology,” says Hauge. more clouds or rainfall in the vicinity. underground fresh water. (Another possible
There is no doubt that it is possible to green However, downwind areas will be cooler and solution is setting up closed greenhouses
desert plots that are actively cooled and more humid, and the hope is that this altered which recycle most of their water.)
irrigated, and that planting trees can have all microclimate will encourage more vegetation And seawater greenhouses could link up
kinds of benefits for the immediate vicinity, to grow naturally, with the effect spreading as with Desertec, the European plan to harvest
from preventing erosion to providing shelter positive feedbacks kick in. solar energy in the Sahara desert. A small
This is plausible, says Paul Valdes of the fraction of that energy could be kept in Africa
University of Bristol in the UK, a climate to desalinate seawater for growing crops.
modeller who has studied why the Sahara Placing solar plants near greenhouses could
abruptly flipped from a green state into desert have several advantages, such as helping
around 8000 years ago. “But there is probably protect them from wind and dust – this is one
a threshold before the effect really starts of the aspects being investigated in Qatar.
having an impact,” he says, and this threshold But will investors stump up the vast
will vary from place to place. “This would amounts needed to realise these dreams?
not happen in all deserts.” In other words, in Perhaps. The financial crisis has dented
some places greening a relatively small area enthusiasm for grand projects, yet the bottom
might greatly boost natural vegetation in line has changed since Paton first came up
the surroundings, but in other places even with his idea. Food prices are soaring, world
greening a very large area would make demand for greenhouse-grown fruit and
no difference. vegetables is rising by 10 per cent a year, and
Finding out what the threshold might more and more countries are running short
be will require both fieldwork and detailed of fresh water. The owner of the trial project
modelling. Complicating matters further is in Australia, Sundrop Farms, this year got
global warming, which is expected to make approval to build a 16-hectare, commercial-
dry areas even drier. scale seawater greenhouse, with construction
There are cheaper ways to revive desert due to start in August. If it can turn a profit,
ecosystems and turn back advancing deserts. heads will turn.
In Niger, on the edge of the Sahara, simple Sundrop, though, is focusing on growing
measures such as protecting trees and digging cash crops – its facility has no desert plots or
ditches to catch rainwater have had a dramatic algae ponds. And perhaps that’s telling. My
effect. Then again, these approaches won’t trip left me unconvinced that I will ever see
work in drier regions, or deliver cash crops. vast areas of the Sahara turn green as massed
In 20 years, Hauge thinks, seawater ranks of cardboard hedges advance across the
greenhouses could be sprouting everywhere sands. On the other hand, people have talked
Elsa Naumann/Sahara Forest Project

from the Atacama desert of northern Chile for decades about how desalination could be
to California and North Africa, where some the solution to producing more crops at a time
coastal aquifers have already been pumped of growing water shortages. With the seawater
dry. In the Egyptian desert, the 19,000-square- greenhouse, there might at last be a practical
kilometre Qattara depression could be way to do so. n
exploited. It is around 100 kilometres from
the coast, but could receive seawater by Fred Pearce is a consultant for New Scientist based
gravity as it is below sea level. in London

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 47


CULTURELAB

Call of the wild


Tales of the natural world enthral and entertain. But do they translate into
personal engagement with nature, wonders Stephanie Pain

conjured up for us wild places and singular species – a tree with no By contrast, city pigeons, it is
Ginkgo: The tree that time forgot by
astonishing creatures, but for relatives, unique leaves, and probably safe to say, are more
Peter Crane, Yale University Press, £25
every reader inspired to get closer extraordinary charisma – is a hated than loved. When Ken
The Global Pigeon by Colin Jerolmack,
to nature in some way, there are survivor from a prehistoric world. Livingstone became Mayor of
University of Chicago Press, $27.50
thousands who simply enjoy the Once ginkgo and its kin grew all London in 2000, one of his first
Looking for the Goshawk by Conor
read. Nature, as publishers and over the world. But as the climate moves was to try to rid Trafalgar
Mark Jameson, Bloomsbury, £18.99
TV executives know, makes great cooled 100 million years ago, they Square of what he called “rats
NATURE writing is being touted entertainment. retreated until eventually a single with wings”. The mayor of Venice
as a new literary genre for new So if we do want to inspire species hung on in China, clinging followed suit, taking on the
times. Most of us live in towns a deeper, more constructive to stream-side slopes. It is fitting, pigeons – and sellers of pigeon
and cities but we are all keen relationship with nature, do we then, that a fossil expert tells the food – of Piazza San Marco,
naturalists now – at least by proxy. know how? For me, the key is to story of how this tenacious tree a place as famous for its birds
The more remote our physical instil a sense of wonder. escaped the fate of its relatives, as its historic buildings and
relationship with the natural exorbitantly priced cafes. Yet look
world, the greater our appetite to up to the rooftops in many of the
experience it through other eyes: world’s great cities and you will
fed properly, even the most city- find a league of pigeon lovers –
bound will reconnect with nature. men (almost without exception)
That, at least, is the theory. who tend and fly pigeons from
And there is a growing number rooftop coops.
of publications to meet this Colin Jerolmack almost
“demand”: wilderness journals, certainly does not consider The
species “biographies”, and year- Global Pigeon a study of nature.
Bernhard Schmerl/FLPA

in-the-life-of accounts of familiar He is an ethnographer, more


animals – many of which prove interested in the nature of culture.
more fascinating than we knew. In this fascinating examination
In this “new” nature writing, of people and their relationships
everything is close up and with pigeons, he reveals much
personal – and not just the about our attitudes to animals,
wildlife. The beguiling lives of Ginkgo survived because people all known only from fossils. to each other and to the society
birds, butterflies and backyard discovered its delights 1000 years ago Much is mysterious about we live in.
bugs come with an obligatory ginkgo, but there’s no doubt why Like a good field biologist,
foray into the life and thoughts Fascination is a better spur than it survives today: humans saved Jerolmack spent years staking out
of the author. An engaging bit of guilt, and hard-won knowledge it. Around 1000 years ago, people his subjects and gathering
storytelling, some confidences more compelling than the discovered the tree’s many observations. The difference is that
shared, and we will be more confessions of a nature lover. delights. They ate its vile-smelling his study sites are pigeon-infested
inclined to nurture what is left Among a clutch of new books, nuts. They used it as a medicine. city squares where lonely old folk
of nature. Maybe. Ginkgo has all the right And they revered it for its beauty feed the birds, pet shops that sell
Nature writing has always been ingredients. It is one of those rare and longevity – its quality of nothing but pigeons, and pigeon
popular. Gilbert White’s detailed works written by a scholar whose “otherness” probably helped. houses high above the streets.
observations of his surroundings passion for his subject makes you Soon the tree became a fixture in Jerolmack kills time with old-
in The Natural History of want to go out and hug a ginkgo – temple gardens throughout Asia. time “fliers” in New York as they
Selbourne have captivated readers or at least seek one out to examine Today, ginkgo is resurgent, wait for their birds to come home.
for more than 200 years. Even it more closely. grown in gardens as an eye- He sips coffee in Berlin with
sedate Victorians snapped up By rights, that should be catching specimen with an air homesick Turks who see their
Alfred Russel Wallace’s brilliant impossible, says Peter Crane, of ancient mystery. Millions birds as a link with home and the
evocation of a more exotic world an eminent palaeobotanist and of ginkgos line city streets, the culture of their fathers. All the
in The Malay Archipelago. former head of the UK’s Royal ultimate symbol of survival while, Jerolmack learns about the
Generations of fine writers have Botanic Gardens in Kew. This in the face of global change. shifting shape of communities,

48 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


For more books and arts coverage and to add your comments, visit newscientist.com/culturelab

escape of captive birds. Goshawks


are spectacular predators with
terrible talons, able to despatch
crows, pigeons, buzzards and
hares with a single slash. Despite
their size and impressive
weaponry, they keep out of sight.
Often the only sign of their
presence is a mound of feathers
or pile of clean-picked bones.
Jameson works for the UK’s
Royal Society for the Protection
of Birds, and although he knows

“Goshawks are being


killed and the killers
are taking care to get
rid of the evidence”

ornithologists who are acquainted


with all the places goshawks are
likely to inhabit, he rarely gets
more than the odd glimpse.
The birds are far less secretive
beyond the UK. In Berlin,
goshawks breed in the city, and
people seem happy to have them.
But in the UK, the birds have
reared many hundreds, even
thousands, of young, and yet
the population has not grown.
Some chicks have been shot
in the nest. But most young
simply disappear without trace –
along with their leg rings. When
other large birds die, some are
usually found and their rings
returned. In the case of the
goshawk – zilch. The implication
is clear: goshawks are being killed
and the killers are taking care to
get rid of the evidence.
Peter Cairns/Northshots

Forty years ago, shooting and


poisoning birds of prey was
widespread, and the killing
invariably blamed on old-time
gamekeepers, men born and bred
to view birds of prey as the enemy.
Secretive predator: wild goshawks Mark Jameson’s Looking for the role in shaping the fortunes of Attitudes have changed, and some
are a very rare sight in the UK Goshawk is perhaps the most in this fearsome predator and to of the rarest species are making a
line with the new breed of nature reflect on what that says about us. comeback. But not the goshawk.
the cultures that grow up around writing, in that Jameson is as Few people in the UK would I assumed the urge to protect
pigeon-keeping and about pigeon much a part of the story as the recognise a goshawk because they non-indigenous pheasants at the
politics. Like ginkgo, pigeons bird he is obsessed with. The are unlikely to have seen one. expense of this spectacular native
survive because they thrive goshawk is frustratingly elusive, More than a century ago, they bird had disappeared along with
among people, but here it is the so as Jameson travels hopefully were trapped, shot and poisoned the old-time keepers. It seems
stories of the people who care for from wood to forest and farther to extinction. Since the 1960s, I was wrong. Perhaps Jerolmack
them that enthral. afield to New York and Berlin, he goshawks have been quietly should apply his ethnographer’s
Of the three new books, Conor has plenty of time to examine our returning, thanks mainly to the eye to that. n

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 49


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DEPARTMENT: AFBI, Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (NI) LOCATION: AFBI Hillsborough, Large Park, Hillsborough, BT26 6DR

Higher Scientific Officer - Ruminant Nutritionist


(Fixed Term 3 years)
SALARY: £27,835 - £30,825 REF: IRC183160
LOCATION: AFBI Hillsborough, Large Park, Hillsborough, BT26 6DR

Higher Scientific Officer – Sustainable Beef Systems


SALARY: £27,835 - £30,825 REF: IRC183119
DEPARTMENT: AFBI, Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (NI) LOCATION: AFBI Hillsborough, Large Park, Hillsborough, BT26 6DR

Higher Scientific Officer – Farm Mechanisation


SALARY: £27,835 - £30,825 REF: IRC183125
DEPARTMENT: AFBI, Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (NI) LOCATION: AFBI Hillsborough, Large Park, Hillsborough, BT26 6DR

Completed application forms for all posts must be returned to arrive not All requests must include your name, address and appropriate reference number.
later than 12:00 noon (UK time) on Friday 31st May 2013. Further appointments may be made from these competitions should AFBI
For more detailed information and to apply, please go to positions become vacant which have similar duties and responsibilities.
www.nicsrecruitment.gov.uk As Roman Catholics are currently known to be under represented in this grade,
Alternatively, an application pack can be requested by contacting: HRConnect, PO applications from the Roman Catholic section of the community would be
Box 1089, The Metro Building, 6-9 Donegall Square South, Belfast, BT1 9EW. particularly welcome.
Telephone: 0800 1 300 330. Email: [email protected]

W W W . N I C S R E C R U I T M E N T . G O V . U K
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25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 53


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54 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


ACADEMIC email [email protected]
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A world of opportunities
www.cam.ac.uk/jobs/

Senior Bioinformatics Analyst


£33,230 - £44,607 pa
We are seeking a highly motivated bioinformatics analyst to play a key role in supporting groundbreaking research
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• Prepare training materials and deliver training courses primarily to laboratory-based researchers.
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This appointment is subject to a health assessment. Whether an outcome is satisfactory will be determined by the University.
For questions about this post, please contact Rory Stark at [email protected]
Email your completed CHRIS 6 application form in MS WORD (including details of three referees), covering letter
and CV to [email protected] by 5pm on Wednesday 12 June 2013.
A CHRIS 6 application is available here http://www.admin.cam.ac.uk/offices/hr/forms/chris6/
For more information on the Cancer Research UK Cambridge Institute, please visit http://www.cruk.cam.ac.uk/
Further information on the University is available at the following address: www.cam.ac.uk/
Please quote reference SW01237 on your application and in any correspondence about this vacancy.
The University has a responsibility to ensure that all employees are eligible to live and work in the UK
The University values diversity and is committed to equality of opportunity.

25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 55


www.NewScientistJobs.com

brighton & sussex medical school

Clinical Research Fellow in Psychiatry and


Mental Health
Ref: 133
Fixed term for 2 years, Part Time (0.5 fte)
Salary range: FTE £31,838 - £35,952 per annum pro rata
Applications are invited from a highly motivated Clinical Research Fellow to work with Professor Hugo Critchley on
a programme funded by the European Research Council that examines the role of bodily states of arousal on the
processing of fear and threat stimuli in the human brain, with relevance to anxiety. This ERC Advanced Grant is
titled ‘Cardiac control of fear in the brain’.
The successful applicant will be a clinician with appropriate level of qualification and established eligibility with
interest and ambition to pursue with high quality research in clinical neuroscience, particularly in the area of
psychiatry and mental health. Applicants must have a medical qualification and be registered to practice in the UK.
The post will combine clinical research in patients, with the opportunity to gain experience in human neuroimaging,
and psychophysiological techniques for examining brain body interaction in clinical and non-clinical populations.
Previous experience in conducting clinical research, particularly if relevant to people accessing mental health
services, is highly desirable. Applicants with technical skills applicable to human neuroscience and experience in
the analysis and presentation of experimental research will also be very useful to this post. Informal enquiries about
the project should be directed to Professor Hugo Critchley ([email protected]), Tel: +441273678336.
Candidates are encouraged to familiarise themselves with the range of research activity undertaken from the
laboratory and collaborators within BSMS and the Sackler Centre for Consciousness Sciences.

Research Fellow in Neuroimaging and


Psychophysiology
Ref: 134
Fixed term for 4 years, Full Time
Salary range: Grade 7 £30,424 to £36,298 per annum. It is normal to appoint at the first point of the salary scale.
Applications are invited from highly motivated post-doctoral research scientists for positions to work with Professor
Hugo Critchley on a programme funded by the European Research Council that examines the role of bodily states
of arousal on the processing of fear and threat stimuli in the human brain, with relevance to anxiety. This ERC
Advanced Grant is titled ‘Cardiac control of fear in the brain’.
The successful applicant will have an established record of high quality research publications, technical skills
applicable to human neuroscience and experience in the analysis and presentation of experimental research.
Applicants must have a PhD in a relevant neuroscientific discipline and experience in human neuroimaging, and/or
psychophysiological techniques and established competence in use of Matlab and specific neuroimaging analytic
platforms (e.g. SPM, FSL, AFNI).
Previous experience in conducting clinical investigations, particularly if relevant to people accessing mental health
services, is highly desirable. Informal enquiries about the project should be directed to Professor Hugo Critchley
([email protected]), Tel: +441273678336. Candidates are encouraged to familiarise themselves with the
range of research activity undertaken from the laboratory and collaborators within BSMS and the Sackler Centre
for Consciousness Science.

For full details and how to apply visit


www.sussex.ac.uk/jobs www.brighton.ac.uk/jobs www.bsms.ac.uk

Closing date for applications: 13 June 2013

We are committed to equality of opportunity

56 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


www.NewScientistJobs.com

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EDITORIAL SCHEDULE 2013 Careers Guide 12 January


Follow our Insider series to get insight from industry Studentships & Courses 23 February
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So what are you waiting for? Oil and Gas 9 November
Look out for our series throughout the year or access Postgraduate 7 December
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Committed to Equal Opportunities www.ncl.ac.uk/biomedstudentships


25 May 2013 | NewScientist | 59
FEEDBACK
For more feedback, visit newscientist.com/feedback

Finally, he asked them for a copy READER Richard Sturch forwards


of the crucial spreadsheet – only an email from his cousin Peter Dyer,
to discover several errors. who bought a remarkable bottle of
Unbelievably, the most water with his breakfast in Bacalod
embarrassing was alphabetical. airport on the island of Negros in the
Reinhart and Rogoff had omitted Philippines.
the first 5 of the 20 countries their “I didn’t realise what a find it was
paper is based on, thereby ignoring until reading the label later,” he says.
figures for Australia, Austria, His email quotes the label on the
Belgium, Canada and Denmark. bottle in full – and exactly the same
Any spreadsheet-savvy reader will claims are on the company’s website
recognise this as an error that occurs at people-water-station.com:
if you take your finger off the mouse “People’s Purified Water undergoes
too soon when highlighting cells. a state-of-the-art multi stage
Feedback’s colleagues admit water treatment process that
to similar mistakes but they do includes carbon, micro, ultra and
remember things being easier back in hyper filtration via a double
the days when a laptop was the size reverse osmosis, sterilised through
of a coffee table and Windows was ultra violet and oxygenated and
new-fangled. Some even remember
a program that allowed you to
easily name a rectangular range
WOODLAND Park, Colorado, is at Whole in the Wall Herb Shoppe. of spreadsheet cells so everything
an elevation of 2580 metres. Gary I started to feel better in just updated automatically – thus
Branum told us this a while ago 10 minutes, after putting 15 drops avoiding the Harvard stars’ error.
in a message that promptly got of Aquagen in a glass of water.” Breaking the habit of a lifetime,
lost in our piling system but has Feedback never ceases to be one colleague consulted Microsoft’s
now resurfaced. “So it’s not impressed by all the wonderful Excel manual, and found you can
surprising,” he added, “that some things “liquid oxygen” can make a self-updating “named range”.
flatlanders have a bit of trouble apparently do – especially since But there are 11 steps in the
adjusting to the lower oxygen it is typically stored at -170 °C instructions. Why so laborious? Could
availability. It is, however, and would burn out your insides it have something to do with a live
somewhat astounding that I can if you ever drank it. patent owned by IBM and a recently
solve that problem by buying expired one owned by Lotus, each stimulated by vortexing process and
‘liquid oxygen’ and adding it to concerning systems that make this vitalised through a bio-resonance
my drinking water.” FEEDBACK knows some readers mistake less likely to happen? and quantum science process.”
By way of an explanation, Gary are allergic to Excel spreadsheets. In the interests of sound Can anyone tell us what on earth
sent us an advert from the Ute If so, you have been warned… We, economics, Feedback wonders if we they are talking about?
Pass Trader, a Woodland Park however, were as tickled as reader should club together to buy Microsoft
shopping guide. Under the Tony Swash by last month’s headlines the necessary patent licence.
headline, “Tourist says: ‘I can that economics PhD student Thomas FINALLY, here is another message
breathe again’ ”, the advert Herndon had discredited a paper that got lost in our piling system.
quotes the tourist, called Ned, as governments use to justify their HOW is this for a must-have It’s a response sent in a couple
complaining that the altitude had current austerity measures (see bit. gadget? Rob Milne introduces of months ago to the question
literally taken his breath away. ly/ExcelError). us to an unusual camping stove. reader Michael Kolmet posed
“My heart was pounding, my head Herndon struggled for months to “Thanks to its unique design, the following our report on
hurt, and I was SO tired. But all replicate the findings of Harvard BioLite Camping Stove can cook, magnetic socks at the end of last
Paul Mcdevitt

that’s gone since I purchased the professors Carmen Reinhart and Ken heat and charge your electronic year (22/29 December 2012).
liquid oxygen supplement from Rogoff, published in their seminal devices using only renewable He asked: “What do you mend
the knowledgeable people at paper “Growth in a Time of Debt”. biomass such as twigs, pine cones, them with?”
wood pellets and other easily Louis Altman replies: “With a
obtainable flammable materials,” compass needle.”
The screenshot Hugh Lawton sent us shows according to the website selling
that his download of the 39.5 megabyte the stove (bit.ly/gadgetcook).
Rob is disappointed that the You can send stories to Feedback by
MacKeeper program got to “4,100% complete” product description doesn’t email at [email protected].
before he stopped watching it and did include any recipes. He would Please include your home address.
particularly like to know how to This week’s and past Feedbacks can
something else knock up a tasty SatNav soup. be seen on our website.

60 | NewScientist | 25 May 2013


THE LAST WORD
Last words past and present at newscientist.com/topic/lastword

Hot in the hay n If you arrive at the railway n If your run gets you to the the Cairngorm mountains, has
station at some random time, station 3 minutes earlier, then one been replaced by slightly hard
I have always assumed that the regardless of how fast you day in 10 you will get to work half water which comes from an
belief that haystacks can burst travelled to the station, you an hour earlier. So your wife is underground borehole. Our kettle
into flames spontaneously was a will have to wait an average of wrong. But perhaps she meant and our hot water tanks now pop
convenient myth to cover for careless 15 minutes and a maximum of that the average waiting time at and crackle loudly when the water
farm workers having a crafty 30 minutes for the next train. the station will be unaffected. is heating, rather than offering
cigarette break while forgetting This is true: nine days out of 10 just a gentle hiss as before. Can
their surroundings, but a friend “If you don’t know the time you will wait 3 minutes longer, anybody explain the reason for
insists that it can happen. Surely of the next train, running exactly balancing the one day in this odd effect when we are
the only way hay can warm up to the station won’t change 10 that you save 27 minutes. heating water with a higher
significantly is if it is wet and your average waiting time” None of this explains the mineral content?
bacteria begin to heat the stack as fundamental question underlying John Poyner
part of the process of biodegradation. So running will not make any this paradox: why not look at the Nethybridge, Highlands, UK
But I’d be amazed if this could difference to your average waiting train timetable? If you are
generate temperatures hotter than time at the station. uncomfortable with smartphone Inside out
about 40 ºC. So how else could However, if you arrive 1 minute apps, timetables still exist in Mammals are supposed to have
ignition take place? (Continued) earlier by running than by old-fashioned paper form. testes outside the abdomen
walking then on one trip in 30 you Ian Gent and Judith Underwood because their fertility would be
n Insurance companies in the will catch a train that you would Cupar, Fife, UK impaired if they were kept inside
18th century insured farmers’ have missed if you had walked, at body temperature. But birds
haystacks in England, Scotland and therefore arriving at your Not so plain thinking have internal testes, despite
Wales, so they clearly believed fire destination 30 minutes earlier. having a higher body temperature.
was possible. A standard phrase On the other 29 out of 30 times The editor writes… An aircraft Why and how did birds evolve in
in the policies reads: “Free from that you don’t catch an earlier must keep up a certain airspeed this way when mammals did not?
loss on such hay or corn as shall train, you will have to wait to stop it stalling. But when flying And why doesn’t this affect the
be destroyed or damaged by its 1 minute longer on the platform into a headwind, it can reduce its birds’ fertility?
natural heat.” This clause appears than if you had just walked there. ground speed without fear of Malcolm Halford
hundreds of times in the policies On these occasions the trip will falling. These facts were stressed Melton Mowbray,
of Sun Fire Office in London. probably seem longer, although by Clive Teale in a correction to Leicestershire, UK
Derek Morris the actual door-to-door time our question Plane Thinking on
By email, no address supplied remains unchanged. 23 March. The correspondent he Colour that stings
You save 30 minutes once in was correcting, Len Winokur, had I recently made nettle wine using
Train brain drain 30 trips, so on average the 1 minute actually made the same point, but an old recipe. Nettles (genus
saved by running saves 1 minute his answer was sent off course by Urtica) are green, yet when
If I don’t know the time of the next door-to-door. If you save more the word-traffic controller at the they were boiled, as the recipe
half-hourly train to depart from my than 1 minute by running, you’ve Last Word. Apologies to Len for suggested, the resulting liquid
local station, is there any point in got a better chance of catching the the error. was red. Why? Was this a property
running to the station? My wife tells train and saving 30 minutes more of the plants or of the aluminium
me it won’t make any difference to often. The average time saved This week’s pan, or some residue in the
whether I catch the next train or always matches the time saved questions apparently clean pan? Nothing
not, but I insist it will. I must admit, by running. else, such as wine-making yeast,
my journey time door-to-door does Brian Horton Hard question had been added at that stage.
not seem to be affected by the West Launceston, Tasmania, Recently our lovely soft water, Frances Cottingham
speed of my approach to the station. Australia which came from a loch high in Isle of Wight, UK

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