Energy | Oilfield Services, Equipment & Drilling

May 31, 2019

James West Weekly Recap: Let The Bodies Hit the Floor
212-653-9047 It is starting to feel like Groundhog Day as Oilfield Service stocks have
[email protected] retraced back to the December bottom and several individual names are
Jason Bandel trading at over 10-year lows. Investor sentiment remains poor, especially
212-653-9044
against the backdrop of rising U.S production levels with the latest report
[email protected]
showing 12.3MMbpd, up 14% YoY. Softening oil prices combined with the
Samantha Hoh, CFA
212-653-9017
capital discipline being shown by E&P customers increases the
[email protected] uncertainty around what 2H19 activity levels. Fortunately in March we
Andres Menocal were able to get in front of the idea that yet again budget exhaustion will
212-653-9041 rear its ugly head sooner-than-expected and we surmise that the market
[email protected] has reticently accepted this premise as estimates and price targets have
synced with our lowered estimates. Don’t forget to mix in the impact of a
Trump tweet (or two, or three) and here we are.
As we move into the summer, there is a lack of near-term catalysts for the
group but valuations have become attractive yet again. A number of
meetings with investors this past week signaled that Free Cash Flows are
becoming en vogue as a financial screening tool which we highlight as a
key change in sentiment that coincides with our recent scrutiny on capital
discipline, executive compensation, and the generation of acceptable
returns. Our coverage universe now trades at a 25% discount to the 2-
year average on 2020 EBITDA while current Price / Books are nearly 40%
below 2-year averages. Taking U.S. Land Drillers into consideration, that
Recent Research group is currently trading 20% below 2-year averages on EV/EBITDA yet
1. Podcast With Chart Industries CEO Jill Evanko utilization levels and dayrates have improved markedly since May of 2017.
What gives? Sure, TTM ROICs for our group improved by 13 bps in 1Q19
2. Offshore Oracle - May 2019
but a negative 1.85% print is nothing to write home about. Still, we believe
3. Onshore Oracle - May 2019 that the 20% correction in OFS shares this past month reflects more than
4. Taking the Pledge to Oilfield Services just the sobering fundamentals in U.S. Land activity and we wouldn’t be
5. LNG Week: Day 3 - The OFS Companies That surprised to see a number of value-oriented investors begin to kick the
Benefit tires on a sector that is screening relatively cheaply.
Inside this edition of the weekly recap you’ll find weekly equity and
Upcoming Evercore OFS Events commodity price action, rig count changes, interesting company,
industry and geopolitical tidbits and links to all of our research
 Jun 18: Energy Mix & Mingle on Evercore ISI’s Terrace published during the week.
 Sep 9-12: NDR with MRC in Boston and New York City This week’s recap of key energy commodity/fund performance
metrics (at the time of writing):
 Sep 30: NDR with GTLS in London
 WTI contracted by 14.4% this week to $54.07, but is up 19.1% YTD.
 Oct 16: Private OFS Technology Company Conference  Brent dropped by 10.5% this week to $64.58, but is up 20.0% YTD.
 Oct 29-30: NDR with APY (Cities TBD)  Nat-gas declined by 5.7% this week to $2.46, and is down by 13.6% YTD.
Upcoming Industry Events
 The OSX tumbled by 15.1% this week, and is down 8.5% YTD.
 The OIH dropped by 14.4% this week, and is down 6.8% YTD.
 Nov 11-14: ADIPEC 2019
 The XLE fell by 8.5%, but is up 2.9% YTD.
 The U.S. rig count experienced a modest uptick to 984 (+1 w/w) due
to a rig addition in the GoM. Even though the number of land rigs
remained flat at 984, drilling activity showed variances across gas and oil
plays. By targeted formations, a pickup in drilling activity in New Mexico
(+2 w/w) and other shale plays (+1 w/w) drove oil rigs higher to 800 (+3
w/w). Rigs targeting gas formations declined in the Marcellus (-1 w/w) and
the Utica (-1 w/w), moving total gas rigs down to 184 (-2 w/w). By
trajectory, horizontal rigs declined to 862 (-1 w/w) whereas directional and
vertical rigs increased to 70 (+1 w/w) and 51 (+1 w/w), respectively.
 The Canadian rig count was higher at 78 (+15 w/w) due to stronger
activity in oil formations. The number of rigs drilling for oil rose to 44 (+6
w/w) while gas rigs moved modestly higher to 41 (+1 w/w).

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It’s a Wrap: An Assessment of This Week’s Noteworthy News
Company News:
1. Nabors Continues to Repair the Balance Sheet. NBR commenced a cash tender offer for up to $275M of its notes maturing in 2020 and
2021 as the onshore driller seeks to ramp liquidity and improve its leverage profile. This comes on the heels of the company cutting in its
dividend earlier this year which was well received by investors and is part of the its plan to cut net debt by $200-$250M throughout 2019.
2. Thermon Group Punts Fiscal 2019 Earnings, Citing Material Weakness in Financial Reporting Controls. While obviously not
good news we believe that it’s a relative non-issue as the company’s audit revealed a control gap in the EMEA business which should
be cleared in June as THR files its annual report. We also highlight that the company is poised to beat top-line and EBITDA guidance
when it reports earnings over the next few weeks.
3. Basic Energy Services Buys Back a Chunk of Stock. The production & completion services company will purchase $5M of its
shares (10% of market cap), a move that was well received by investors as the stock jumped 10% higher on the news in initial trading.
According to CEO Roe Patterson, “The Board's authorization and our implementation of a stock repurchase program reflects our
confidence in the long-term value of Basic's market position and financial performance, which have been severely discounted due to
current conditions in financial markets. We expect the stock repurchase program to be effected without drawing on our existing ABL
credit facility, and we expect our year-end cash balance to be approximately $55 - $60 million and total liquidity of approximately $130
- $135 million in the event we fully utilize the current repurchase authorization by December 31, 2019."
4. Comings and Goings. National Energy Services Reunited (NESR) CFO Melissa Cougle departed the company and will be replaced
by Chris Boone, whom will lead NESR’s finance and compliance departments. Boone previously served as CFO of Tesco and worked
at Lufkin Industries in various financial and operational roles. According to NESR CEO Sherif Foda, “We are extremely pleased to
have Chris join the NESR leadership team. Chris's financial leadership and hands-on experience in working with innovative, high
growth businesses with an international footprint in oilfield services makes him an excellent fit for NESR. I look forward to working with
Chris in pursuit of becoming one of the best companies in oilfield services worldwide. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank
Melissa for her valuable contribution and wish her continued success and the best of luck in her future endeavors.” Melissa will be
joining Frank’s International where she will be succeeding former CFO Kyle McClure, who decided to leave the company to focus on
other opportunities. Meanwhile Ion Geophysical’s CEO Brian Hanson will be stepping down from his role leading the company and
from the Borard of Directors, after serving as the company’s chief from 2011 until now. Brian will be succeeded by Ion executive Chris
Usher whom has been with the company since 2012.
5. Chevron Disposes of North Sea Assets in $2B Deal. UK-based Ithaca Energy, a subsidiary of Israel’s Delek Group, is buying what
CVX is selling as it will acquire 10 producing North Sea fields from the IOC, and will assume 500 Chevron employees as part of the
deal. Ithaca’s proven plus probable reserves are expected to increase 150% to 225MMboe once the transaction has closed and will
help the company increase daily production to 80Kboe.
6. McDermott Snags North Field Expansion (NFE) Project in Qatar. The E&C company secured a large FEED contract with Qatar
Petroleum that will involve ork on offshore topsides and pipelines at the massive NFE initiative. The job will likely take a year to
complete which implies that the EPCI contract should wrap-up in 2020. MDR bested Saipem, Wood, and FTI for the contract,
according to Upstream Online. NFE is critical for Qatar to expand its LNG capcity from 77MMtpa to 110MMtpa by 2023 .

Industry News:
7. LNG:
a. Venture Global Gets $1.3B Investment for Calcasieu Pass LNG. Stonepeak Infrastructure Partners inked a large deal that will
see it gain an equity stake in the $5B / 10MMtpa LNG liquefaction plant and export terminal. The terminal has received all of the
necessary federal permits and has spent $250M on engineering and site preparation work with Kiewit selected as the lead EPC
contractor.
b. Bechtel Bags EPC Work For Rio Grande LNG. NextDecade awarded Bechtel with two deals for its nearly $14B 27MMtpa facility
located in Brownsville, Texas. The contract covers the scope of the first phase of the project which includes three liquefaction
trains, two 180,000 cubic meter storage tanks and two marine berths, according to Upstream Online. The project is expected to
FID in 3Q19 with production beginning in 2023.
c. DOE Quickly Blesses Exports From Freeport LNG Expansion. The U.S. Department of Energy continued its pattern of
amenable and quick turnarounds for U.S. LNG exporters as it approved the export of cargos to countries lacking free-trade
agreements with the U.S.. The approval will span a 20-year period and comes only less than two weeks after FERC approved the
addition of a fourth liquefaction train at the Freeport LNG facility. We also note that department has starting to refer to U.S. LNG
exports as “freedom gas.”
d. Total Buys Toshiba’s Stake in Freeport LNG. The Japanese company previously tried to divest its rights to sell 2.2MMtpa from
its stake in Freeport LNG to a Chinese buyer which fell through due to challenges with U.S. / China regulatory approvals. Total has

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 stepped up to the plate although Toshiba will book a $920M write-down on the sale while the value of Total’s investment was
undisclosed. We view this as a positive for LNG as Toshiba’s decision to exit the project was mainly to rid itself of non-core assets.
e. Papua New Guinea Political Upheaval Puts PLNG At Risk. With newly elected Prime Minister James Marape taking the stage,
a number of gas deals with IOCs may be revised as Marape calls for greater control of indigenous resources, according to the Wall
Street Journal. Critics of the prior PNG government highlighted deals with ExxonMobil, Total and Oil Search as those companies
seek to invest billions of dollars to double the country’s LNG exports. According to the Prime Minister, “We will look into maximizing
gain from what God has given this country—from our natural resources. I have every right to tweak and turn resources laws for my
country.” Wood Mac expects for a production delay to occur at PNG LNG which could push back the timeline by two years to 2025.
Despite this, we still expect for the $13.2B / 8.1MM Train 3 expansion to receive a positive FID by the end of 2019.
8. Port of Corpus Christi To Get $400M Investment to Deepen Ship Channel. Potential commodity bottlenecks have been brewing in
Texas export terminals which should receive a reprieve as the Port of Corpus Christi started work on a $380M initiative to deepen and
widen its ship channel so that two-way supertanker traffic can flow through it simultaneously. The project is expected to finish in 2022.

Geopolitical / Policy News:

9. This is Awkward: Nigeria and Shell To Renegotiate Contracts. The government is looking for better terms than those that were
signed under prior production-sharing contracts which were signed with Shell, Total, Equnior, Eni ExxonMobil in the early 1990s.
Shell’s contract is up for negotiation as its previous deal expires in 2023 with the other IOC and NOCs up for renewals in 2028.
Unfortunately, this will likely effect Shell’s FID on the $10B Bonga Southwest deepwater project, according to the Financial Times.
10.Iran Gets Reprieve on Potential U.S. Sanctions Targeting Petrochemicals. The Trump Administration delayed tougher sanctions
on Iran’s petrochemical sector as officials seek to reduce tensions between the two countries although the WSJ notes that the U.S.
Treasury could still move forward with these sanctions in the future. Following crude, petrochemical generate the second largest
number of exports for Iran, estimated to be $36B by 2021.

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 Links to Notes Published This Week:
1. BDRILL: Natural Borr Driller
2. Offshore Oracle - May 2019
3. Global Oil Patch Weekly 05/27/2019: Stop, Drop, and Roll
4. Rig Count Rundown - A Detailed Breakdown of U.S. Onshore Activity, 05/25/2019
5. Frac Sand: Slightly Better Days Ahead

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TIMESTAMP
(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)
Time of dissemination: May 31 2019 04:36

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The analysts, James West, Andres Menocal, Jason Bandel, Samantha Hoh, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report attest
to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or
issuers; and (2) that no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in
this research report.

DISCLOSURES
This report is approved and/or distributed by Evercore Group LLC ("Evercore Group"), a U.S. licensed broker-dealer regulated by the Financial
Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA"), and International Strategy & Investment Group (UK) Limited ("lSI UK''), which is authorised and
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The analysts and associates responsible for preparing this report receive compensation based on various factors, including Evercore Partners'
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This report may include a Tactical Call, which describes a near-term event or catalyst affecting the subject company or the market overall and
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Ratings Definitions
Current Ratings Definition
Evercore lSI's recommendations are based on a stock's total forecasted return over the next 12 months. Total forecasted return is equal to the
expected percentage price return plus gross dividend yield. We divide our stocks under coverage into three primary ratings categories, with the
following return guidelines:
Outperform- the total forecasted return is expected to be greater than the expected total return of the analyst's coverage universe
In Line- the total forecasted return is expected to be in line with the expected total return of the analyst's universe
Underperform- the total forecasted return is expected to be less than the expected total return of the analyst's universe
Coverage Suspended- the rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Evercore lSI policy when Evercore is acting in an advisory
capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.*
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determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, a rating or target price. The previous rating and target price, if
any, are no longer in effect for this company and should not be relied upon.*
*Prior to October 10, 2015, the "Coverage Suspended" and "Rating Suspended" categories were included in the category "Suspended."
FlNRA requires that members who use a ratings system with terms other than "Buy," "Hold/Neutral" and "Sell" to equate their own
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Historical Ratings Definitions
Prior to March 2, 2017, Evercore lSI's recommendations were based on a stock's total forecasted return over the next 12 months:
Buy- the total forecasted return is expected to be greater than 10%

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Hold- the total forecasted return is expected to be greater than or equal to 0% and less than or equal to 10%
Sell -the total forecasted return is expected to be less than 0%
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lSI Group and lSI UK:
Prior to October 10, 2014, the ratings system of lSI Group LLC and lSI UK which was based on a 12-month risk adjusted total return:
Strong Buy- Return > 20%
Buy- Return 10% to 20%
Neutral - Return 0% to 10%
Cautious- Return -10% to 0%
Sell- Return< -10%
For disclosure purposes, lSI Group and lSI UK ratings were viewed as follows: Strong Buy and Buy equate to Buy, Neutral equates to Hold, and
Cautious and Sell equate to Sell.
Evercore Group:
Prior to October 10, 2014, the rating system of Evercore Group was based on a stock's expected total return relative to the analyst's coverage
universe over the following 12 months. Stocks under coverage were divided into three categories:
Overweight- the stock is expected to outperform the average total return of the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months.
Equal-Weight- the stock is expected to perform in line with the average total return of the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months.
Underweight -the stock is expected to underperform the average total return of the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months.
Suspended- the company rating, target price and earnings estimates have been temporarily suspended.
For disclosure purposes, Evercore Group's prior "Overweight," "Equal-Weight" and "Underweight" ratings were viewed as "Buy," "Hold" and
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Evercore lSI utilizes an alternate rating system for companies covered by analysts who use a model portfolio-based approach to determine a
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Long- the stock is a positive holding in the model portfolio; the total forecasted return is expected to be greater than 0%.
Short- the stock is a negative holding in the model portfolio; the total forecasted return is expected to be less than 0%.
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Stocks included in the model portfolio will be weighted from 0 to 100% for Long and 0 to -100% for Short. A stock's weight in the portfolio reflects
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definitions of Outperform, In Line and Underperform.
FlNRA requires that members who use a ratings system with terms other than "Buy," "Hold/Neutral" and "Sell," to equate their own
ratings to these categories. For this purpose, and in the Evercore lSI ratings distribution below, our Long, No Position and Short
ratings can be equated to Buy, Hold and Sell respectively.

Evercore lSI rating (as of 05/31/2019)

Coverage Universe Investment Banking Services I Past 12 Months

Ratings Count Pct. Ratings Count Pct.
Buy 386 52 Buy 255 66
Hold 295 39 Hold 154 52
Sell 39 5 Sell 15 38
Coverage Suspended 20 3 Coverage Suspended 15 75
Rating Suspended 8 1 Rating Suspended 2 25

Issuer-Specific Disclosures (as of May 31, 2019)

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Price Charts

GENERAL DISCLOSURES
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