Probability

It might be because of the undeniable craving

of man for gambling that led to the development of
the theories of probability. In an effort to increase
the gambler’s winning, they called up the
mathematicians like Pascal, Leibniz, Fermat,
Bernoulli and Tartaglia, to provide them strategies.
Later on, the theory evolved, and has
branched out far beyond gambling. It is now used
in various fields such as politics, business weather
forecasting and even in scientific research.
 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE OF
COUNTING
If some procedure can be performed in n1
different ways, and if, following this procedure, a
second procedure can be performed in n2
different ways, and if, following this second
procedure, a third procedure can be performed
in n3 different ways, and so forth; then the
number of ways the procedures can be
performed in the order indicated is the product
n1*n2*n3*…
 Examples
1. Suppose an engineering company has 7 branches in Cebu, each branch
has 5 departments and each department has 15 employees. How many
choices of employees are there?

2. How many 4 - digit numbers can be formed from the digits 2, 4, 5, 7 and 8
if
a. repetitions are permitted,
b. repetitions are not permitted,
c. the integers are to be even;
c.1. with repetition
c.2. without repetition
d. the integers are to be greater than 5000?
d.1. with repetition
d.2. without repetition
 Examples
4. a) How many car number plates can be made if each plate contains
3 different letters followed by 3 different digits? b) If the first digit
cannot be 0?

5. In a certain election, there are three candidates for president, four

for vice-president, five for secretary, but only two for treasurer. In how
many different ways may the election turn out?

6. If two cubical dice are thrown, in how many ways can they fall?

7. A developer of a new subdivision offers a prospective home buyer a

choice of 5 designs, 4 different heating systems, a garage or carport,
and a patio or screened porch. How many different plans are available
to this buyer?
 Examples
8. How many four-letter words beginning and ending with
vowel without letter repeated can be formed from the
word “STUDENT”?

9. College of Architecture and Engineering sponsored a

raffle where they are to sell 800 tickets sequentially
numbered from 001 to 800. How many of the tickets
a. has the same three digits
b. ends in 4
c. contain the digits 1,5, and 6 (not necessarily in
that order).
10. There are 10 items true - false test in quiz #1 in ES
314,
a. In how many ways can this be answered?
b. In how many ways can this be answered if the
first four numbers should be answered with TRUE?

11. If there are seven airlines flying from Singapore to

Manila, five shipping lines from Manila to Cebu City, and
ten bus lines from Cebu City to Santander, in how many
ways can Angel go from Singapore to Santander by way of
Manila and Cebu City?
 Activity
1. In how many different ways can 3 male faculty and 4 female faculty
be seated in a row of 7 vacant seats if:
a. they may sit anywhere? b. the male faculty must occupy the
even seats

2. A psychologist is preparing three-letter nonsense words for use in

memory test. He chooses the first letter from the consonants k, m, w,
and z. He chooses the middle letter from the vowels a, i, and u. He
chooses the final letter from the consonants b, d, f, k, m, and t.
a) How many different three-letter nonsense words can he
construct?
b) How many of these nonsense words will end in either k or m?
c) How many of these nonsense words will begin and end with the
same letter?
 Activity
3. a. How many 4-letter words can be formed
from the letters of the word HISTORY that
contains the two vowels?
b. How many begins with a vowel and ends with a
consonant?
4. How many five-letter words beginning and
ending with a vowel without any letter repeated
can be formed from the word “personnel”?
COMBINATORICS is the study of counting techniques.
The two basic counting techniques are Permutation and
Combination

PERMUTATION
Is a linear ordering of the elements of a non-empty
finite set. A non-empty finite set is said to be linearly
ordered if there is a first element, a second element, a
third element, and so on. The number of ways of
ordering “n” distinct objects taken “r” at a time is
denoted by nPr ; P(n,r) ; or defined by
P(n,r) = n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3)…(n-r+1)
Factorial Notation (n! or x!)
The product of all positive integers from 1 to n.
n! = n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3)…(3)(2)(1)

Simplify:

1. 2.
 Theorems on Permutation
1. The number of permutations of n distinct
objects is P(n, n) = n!.
How many permutations of the letters of
the word “DICE” taken all at a time?
2. The number of permutations of n distinct
objects taken r at a time is
P(n,r) =
3. a) P(n,n) = P(n,n-1)
b) P(n,1) = n
c) P(n,0) = 1
4. The number of distinct permutations of n objects of which
n1 are of one kind, n2 of a second kind, …, nk of a kth kind is
___n!____
n1!n2!...nk!

In how many distinct permutations can be made from

the letters of the word INFINITY”?
How many different ways can 4 blue, 2 yellow and 3
red bulbs be arranged in a string with 9 sockets?
5. The number of permutations of n distinct
objects arranged in a circle is (n-1)!.
a) How many different sitting arrangements are
possible if four couples are to be seated at a
round table?
b) How many different sitting arrangements are
possible if three couples are to be seated at a
round table so that the male and female must
alternate?
Find n:
1. P(n,2) = 30
2. P(n,2) = 110
3. P(n+1,2) = 6P(n-1,2)
4. 14P(n+2, 2) = 33P(n-2, 2)
 COMBINATION
Let S be a set containing n elements and r is a
positive integer such that r  n. Then the
combination of r elements of S is an
arrangement in any order without repetitions of
r elements of S.
A subset of selecting n distinct objects
without regard to order. The number of
combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a
time is given by
 Theorems on Combinations

1. C (n,n) = 1
2. C (n,n-1) = n
3. C (n,0) = 1
4. C (n,1) = n
5. The total number of combinations of n
elements taken 1, 2, 3, … or n at a time is
C(n,1) + C(n,2) + … + C(n,n) or (2n-1).
 Examples
1. Find the total number of combinations of four letters “LOVE“
taken one, two, three or four at a time?
2. A student is to answer 7 out of 10 questions in an exam.
a) How many choices has he?
b) How many choices if he must answer the first 3 questions?
3. A bag contains four yellow balls, six orange balls, and five violet
balls. In how many ways can six balls be chosen if there are to be three
balls of each color?
4. From a group of 4 men & 5 women, how many committees of size 5
are possible
a) with no restrictions,
b) with 3 men & 2 women;
c) with 2 men & 3 women if a certain woman must be on the
committee?
 Examples
5. How many bridge hands are possible
containing 4 spades, 6 diamonds, 1 club and 2
hearts?
6. How many 6-number combinations can be
generated from the numbers from 1 to 42
inclusive, without repetition and with no regards
to the order of numbers?
 Find n:
1. C(n, 2) =10
2. C(n, 2) = 21
3. 24C(n, 2) = C(n+1, n-2)
4. C(n, n-2) = C(n, n-4)
5. P(n, 4) = 30C(n, n-5)
6. 24C(2n, n+1) = 91C(2n-2, n-2)
 SET THEORY
This chapter treats some of the elementary ideas and
concepts of set theory, which are necessary for a modern
introduction to probability.

Definition:
SET - is a well defined collection of objects; the objects
comprising the set are called elements () or members.
Denoted by any capital letter and the elements are enclosed
in a brace.

Example: A = { a, e, i, o, u}
B = {x|x,  of Real numbers.}
Two ways of describing a set
Roster or Tabular form = (listing of the elements
and enclosing them in braces.)
Rule form = (a method which makes use of the
description.)
{ x| …}, which is read as “ x such that…”
 Probability of an Event
Probability is a branch of Mathematics that deals with the
likelihood of observing one of several possible outcomes
that can occur in an event. In probability, an event is a
single happening – sometimes called a trial, and an
outcome is one of several possible results. For example,
one toss of a coin is an event, whereas a head or a tail is
an outcome. The determination of probabilities is
important in many practical activities. For example,
manufacturers need to know the likelihood that a
randomly selected product is flawed; personnel managers
need to know the likelihood that a person hired for a job
will be successful; insurance companies need to know the
likelihood that client will have an accident in a given year.
SAMPLE SPACE is the set of all possible distinct outcomes of a given
experiment. A particular outcome that is an element in S is called a
sample point or sample.

An EVENT is a subset of a sample space.

Examples:
Give the sample space of the following experiments.
1. Throwing a single die.
2. Flipping a single coin
3. Tossing three coins simultaneously.
4. Tossing a die and then flipping a coin once the number on the
die is even. List the elements in the sample space using a tree
diagram.
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
If S is the sample space of an experiment and E is
an event associated with the experiment, the
probability of E is denoted by P(E) and defined
by

where n(E) is the number of outcomes in an

event and n(S) is the number of outcomes in a
sample space.
PROPERTIES OF THE PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
If E is any event, then the probability of E has the
following properties:
1. The probability of an event is non-negative
and never greater than 1, that is 0P(E) 1.
2. If E is an impossible event, then P(E) = 0.
3. If E is a sure event, then P(E) = 1.
ADDITION RULES ON PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
1. If two events are mutually exclusive events, then
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B).

2. If two events are not mutually exclusive events, then

P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB).
3. If A and B are complementary events, then
P(A) + P(B) = 1.

4. If A, B, C, and … are mutually exclusive events, then

P(ABC…) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) + …
 Examples
1. If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive events
and P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.3 and (C) = 0.4, find:
a) P(A  B  C)
b) P*A’  (B  C)]
c) P(B  C’)’
2. If two dice are thrown, what is the probability
of obtaining a
a. sum of 5 b. sum of 4 or 10 c. sum of at least 9
3. If three coins are tossed, what is the probability of each of the
following events:
– obtaining no heads
– obtaining at most one tail?

4. If a single card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards, what is the

probability of each of the following events:
– obtaining a king or a heart;
– obtaining a diamond?

5. Three cards are drawn at random from an ordinary deck of 52 cards.

Find the probability that
- the three are diamonds
- there is at least 2 aces
6. Three light bulbs are chosen at random from 10 bulbs
of which 4 are defective. Find the probability that
- none is defective
- exactly one is defective
- at least one is defective.

7. Three men are seeking public office. Candidates A and

B are given about the same chance of winning, but
candidate C is given twice the chance of either A or B.
– what is the probability that C wins?
– What is the probability that A does not win?
8. The probabilities that three men shoot a basket
in a basketball game are 1/6, 1/4, and 1/3
respectively. Each shoots once at the basket. Find
the probability that exactly one of them shoots the
basket.

9. Twelve books consisting of six algebra books, 2

trigonometry books, and four statistics books are
arranged on a shelf at random. Determine the
probability that books of the same kind are all
together.
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Let E be an arbitrary event in a sample space S
with P(E) > 0. The probability that an event A
occurs once E has occurred or, in other words,
the conditional probability of A given E, written
P(A│E), is defined as follows:

P(AE) =
1. Let A and B be events with P(A) = ½, P(B) = 1/3, and P(AB)= ¼.
Find: a. P(A/B) b. P(B/A)

2. A die is tossed. If the number is odd, what is the probability that it is

prime?

3. A pair of dice is thrown. Find the probability that the sum is 9 or

greater if
a. a 5 appears on the first die
b. a 5 appears on at least one of the dice.
In a certain school, 45% of the students have brown hair, 25%
have brown eyes, and 10% have both brown hair and brown
eyes. A student is selected at random from a school.
a) If she has brown eyes, what is the probability that he also
has brown hair?

b) If he has brown hair, what is the probability that he does

not have brown eyes?

c. What is the probability that he has neither brown hair nor

brown eyes?
3. Three fair coins are tossed. Find the
probability that they are all heads if
- the first coin is head
- one of the coins is head.
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Two events A and B are independent if either
P(B/A) = P(B) or P(A/B) = P(A).

MULTIPLICATIVE RULE:
If an experiment the events A and B can both occur
then P(AB) = P(A)P(B/A).

SPECIAL MULTIPLICATIVE RULE:

If two events A and B are independent, then
P(AB) = P(A)P(B).
1. The probability that a father will live 15 more
years is 1/3 and the probability that mother will
live 15 more years is 1/5. Find the probability
that
a. both will be alive in 15 years;
b. at least one will be alive in 15 years;
c. neither will be alive in 15years.
2. A small town has 2 ambulance units operating
independently. The probability that a specific
ambulance is available when called is 0.86.
a. What is the probability that neither is
available when called?
b. What is the probability that an ambulance is
available when called?
 The Binomial Distribution
Properties:
• The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
• Each trial results is an outcome that may be
classified as a success or a failure.
• The probability of success is denoted by p and
remains constant from trial to trial.
• The repeated trials are independent.
Theorem: The probability of exactly k successes in n
repeated trials is denoted and given by
b(k; n, p) = C(n, k)pkqn-k.
1. Find: b(2; 5, 1/3)
2. A fair coin is tossed 7 times. Find the
probability that:
a. exactly three heads occur;
b. at least four heads occur;
c. no heads occur;
d. at least one head occur.
3. A fair die is tossed 8 times; call a toss a success if a 2 or
a 6 appears. Find the probability that a 2 or a 6:
a. occurs exactly 3 times
b. occurs at least once
c. never occurs.
4. The probability that a fluorescent light will last for at
least 600 hours is 0.8, find the probabilities that among
15 lights selected
a. exactly 13 will last for at least 600 hours;
b. at least 12 will last for at least 600 hours;
c. at least 3 will not last for at least 600 hours.
 If we regard n and p as constant, then the above function
P(k) =b(k; n, p) is a discrete probability distribution:
K 0 1 2 … n
P(k) pn C(n,1)pn-1q C(n,2)pn-2q2 … qn

It is called the binomial distribution since k = 0, 1, 2, …, n

it corresponds to the successive terms of the binomial
expansion
(p + q)n = pn + C(n,1)pn-1q + C(n,2)pn-2q 2 + …+ qn.

for the rth term in (p + q)n is C(n, r-1)p(n-r+1)q(r-1).

1. Expand by binomial theorem:
a. (a + b)6 b. (x + 3y)5

2. Find the sixth term of the expansion of

( 2x – 3)9.
n = 9, k=6
the sixth term = C(9,5)(2x)4(-3)5
= -489,888x4