3

C H A P T E R

Project Management

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 8. Any late start or extension of an activity on the critical path
will delay the completion of the project.
1. There are many possible answers. Project management is
needed in large construction jobs, in implementing new informa- 9. To crash an activity, the project manager would pay money
tion systems, in new product development/marketing, in creating a to add resources (overtime, extra help).
new assembly line, and so on. 10. Activity times used in PERT are assumed to be described by
2. Project organizations make sure existing programs continue to a Beta probability distribution. Given optimistic (a), pessimistic
run smoothly while new projects are successfully completed. (b), and most likely (m), completion times, average or expected
time is given by:
3. The three phases involved in managing a large project are:
planning, scheduling, and controlling. a  4m  b
t
4. PERT and CPM help answer questions relating to which task 6
elements are on (or likely to be on) the critical path and to proba- and the variance by:
ble completion times for the overall project. Some specific ques- 2
tions include: ª b  a º
Variance « »
„When will the entire project be completed?
¬ 6 ¼
„Which are the critical activities or tasks in the project; that
is, the activities that will delay the entire project if com- 11. Early start (ES) of an activity is the latest of the early finish
pleted behind schedule? times of all its predecessors. Early finish (EF) is the early start of
„Which are the noncritical activities; that is, those that can
an activity plus its duration. Late finish (LF) of an activity is the
run behind schedule without delaying the whole project? earliest of the late start times of all successor activities. Late start
How far behind schedule can these activities run without (LS) of an activity is its late finish less its duration.
disrupting the completion time? 12. The critical path is the shortest time possible for the comple-
„What is the probability that the project will be completed tion of a series of activities, but that shortest time is the longest
by a specific date? path through the network. Only the longest path allows time for all
„At any particular date, is the project on schedule, behind activities in the series; any smaller amount will leave activities
schedule, or ahead of schedule? unfinished.
„On any given date, is the money spent equal to, less than, 13. Dummy activities have no time duration. They are inserted
or greater than the budgeted amount? into a AOA network to maintain the logic of the network, such as
„Are there enough resources available to finish the project when two activities have exactly the same beginning and ending
on time? events. A dummy activity is inserted with one of them so that the
„If the project is required to be finished in a shorter amount computer software can handle the problem.
of time, what is the least-cost way to accomplish this?
14. They are (1) Optimistic time estimate (a), an estimate of the
5. WBS is a hierarchial subdivision of effort required to achieve minimum time an activity will require; (2) Most likely time esti-
an objective. It defines a project by breaking it down into manage- mate (m), an estimate of the normal time an activity will require;
able parts and even finer subdivisions. and (3) Pessimistic time estimate (b), an estimate of the maximum
6. A Gantt chart is a visual device that shows the duration of time an activity will require.
tasks in a project. It is a low cost means of ensuring that (1) all ac- 15. No. In networks, there is no possibility that crashing a non-
tivities are planned for, (2) their order of performance is planned critical task can reduce the project duration. Only critical tasks
for, (3) the activity times are recorded, and (4) the overall project offer the possibility of reducing path length. However, other crite-
time is developed. ria for crashing may exist: for instance, skills required in one of
7. The difference between AOA and AON is that activities are the activities may also be needed elsewhere.
shown on arrows in the former and on the node in the latter. We 16. Total PERT project variance is computed as the sum of the
primarily use AON in this chapter. variances of all activities on the critical path.

13
14 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT

17. Slack: the amount of time an activity can be delayed and not In every case, quality project management means open
affect the overall completion time of the whole project. Slack can communication, realistic timetables, good staff, and use of
be determined by finding the difference between the earliest start software like MSProject to build and maintain a schedule.
time and the latest start time, or the earliest finish time and the lat- Bidding on a contract with a schedule that is not feasible may be
est finish time for a given activity. unethical as well as poor business.
18. If there are a sufficient number of tasks along the critical
path, we can assume that project completion time is described by a ACTIVE MODEL EXERCISE
normal probability distribution with mean equal to the sum of the
expected times of all activities on the critical path and variance ACTIVE MODEL 3.1: Gantt Chart
equal to the sum of the variances of all activities on the critical 1. Both A and H are critical activities. Describe the difference
path. between what happens on the graph when you increase A vs.
The fundamental assumption required is that the number of increasing H.
activities on the critical path is large enough that the mean of the When you increase H, it is the only task to change on the
sum of the Beta distributions is distributed approximately as the chart. However, when you increase A then all critical tasks
normal distribution. move to the right and the slack for the noncritical tasks
increases.
19. Widely used project management software include Time-
Line, MS Project, MacProject, Harvard Total Project Manager, 2. Activity F is not critical. By how many weeks can you in-
Primavera, and PERTmaster. crease activity F until it becomes critical.
6 weeks
ETHICAL DILEMMA 3. Activity B is not critical. By how many weeks can you in-
Large projects with time/cost overruns are not uncommon crease activity B until it becomes critical? What happens when B
situations in the world of project management. Why do MIS becomes critical?
projects commonly sport 200–300% cost overruns and completion 1 week. Activity D also becomes critical
times twice that projected? Why do massive construction projects 4. What happens when you increase B by 1 more week after it
run so late and so over budget? becomes critical?
Students are expected to read about such projects and come Activities A, C and E become non-critical and the project
up with explanations, especially related to ethics. In the case of takes one additional week.
MIS projects, long software development tasks are almost 5. Suppose that building codes may change and as a result activ-
doomed to failure because of the changes in technology and staff ity B would have to be completed before activity C could be
that take place. It’s a necessity to break large projects down into started. How would this affect the project?
smaller 3–6 month modules or pieces that are self-contained. This Activity B becomes critical and the project takes one
protects the organization from a total loss should the massive additional week.
project never be completed.
 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 15

END-OF-CHAPTER PROBLEMS
3.1 Some possible Level 3 and Level 4 activities for the house appear for each level 2 activity below.
16 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT

3.2 Here are some detailed activities to add to Jacobs’ WBS:* 3.6 (a)
1.11 Set initial goals for fundraising
1.12 Set strategy including identifying sources and
solicitation
1.13 Raise the funds
1.21 Identify voters’ concerns
1.22 Analyze competitor’s voting record
1.23 Establish positions on issues (b) Critical path is B–D–E–G
1.31 Hire campaign manager and political advisor (c) Total project takes 26 days
1.32 Get volunteers (d)
1.33 Hire a staff
Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack Critical
1.34 Hire media consultants
A 2 0 2 13 15 13 No
1.41 Identity filing deadlines
B 5 0 5 0 5 0 Yes
1.42 File for candidacy C 1 0 1 11 12 11 No
1.51 Train staff for audit planning D 10 5 15 5 15 0 Yes
Many other choices may be made by students. E 3 15 18 15 18 0 Yes
*Source: Modified from an example found in M. Hanna and W. Newman F 6 1 7 12 18 11 No
Operations Management: Prentice Hall Upper Saddle River, NJ. (2001): G 8 18 26 18 26 0 Yes
p. 722.
3.7 (a)
3.3

Critical path is A–C–F–H. Time = 21 days

This is an AON network.

3.4 (b,c) There are four paths:

Path Time (hours)

A–C–E–G 19.5
B–D–F–G 24.9
A–C–D–F–G 28.7 (critical)
B–E–G 15.7

(d) Gantt chart

Critical path is A–C–F–G–I. Time = 21 days
This is an AOA network.

3.5 The paths through this network are: J–L–O, J–M–P,

J–M–N–O, K–P, and K–N–O. Their path durations are 23, 18, 22,
13, and 17. J–L–O is the critical path; its duration is 23.
 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 17

3.8 (a) (b)

Task Time ES EF LS LF Slack
A 9 0 9 0 9 0
B 7 9 16 9 16 0
C 3 9 12 18 21 9
D 6 16 22 20 26 4
E 9 16 25 16 25 0
F 4 12 16 21 25 9
G 6 25 31 25 31 0
(b) 150 hours, with path A–C–E–F
H 5 22 27 26 31 4
3.9 I 3 31 34 31 34 0
Activities on the critical path: A, B, E, G, I
Project completion time 34
3.13
a + 4m + b ba
Activity a m b t= V =
6 6
A 11 15 19 15 1.33
B 27 31 41 32 2.33
C 18 18 18 18 0
3.10 D 8 13 19 13.17 1.83
E 17 18 20 18.17 0.5
F 16 19 22 19 1
3.14
Activity a m b Expected Variance
A 3 6 8 5.83 0.69
B 2 4 4 3.67 0.11
C 1 2 3 2.00 0.11
D 6 7 8 7.00 0.11
E 2 4 6 4.00 0.44
F 6 10 14 10.00 1.78
Note: Activity times are shown as an aid for Problem 3.11. They are not G 1 2 4 2.17 0.25
required in the solution to 3.10. H 3 6 9 6.00 1.00
I 10 11 12 11.00 0.11
3.11
J 14 16 20 16.33 1.00
Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack Critical K 2 8 10 7.33 1.78
A 6 0 6 2 8 2 No 3.15
B 7 0 7 0 7 0 Yes
Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack Critical
C 3 6 9 8 11 2 No
D 2 6 8 12 14 6 No A 5.83 0.00 5.83 7.17 13.00 7.17 No
E 4 7 11 7 11 0 Yes B 3.67 0.00 3.67 5.33 9.00 5.33 No
F 6 7 13 8 14 1 No C 2.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 Yes
G 10 11 21 11 21 0 Yes D 7.00 2.00 9.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 Yes
H 7 13 20 14 21 1 No E 4.00 9.00 13.00 9.00 13.00 0.00 Yes
F 10.00 13.00 23.00 13.00 23.00 0.00 Yes
The critical path is given by or activities: B, E, G
G 2.17 13.00 15.17 15.83 18.00 2.83 No
Total project completion time is 21 days. H 6.00 23.00 29.00 23.00 29.00 0.00 Yes
3.12 (a) I 11.00 15.17 26.17 18.00 29.00 2.83 No
J 16.33 2.00 18.33 20.00 36.33 18.00 No
K 7.33 29.00 36.33 29.00 36.33 0.00 Yes
The critical path given by activities: C, D, E, F, H, K. Average
project completion time is 36.33 days.
18 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT

3.16 Expected completion time for the project is 36.33 days. 3.18
Project variance sum of variances of activities on critical
path 0.11  0.11  0.44  1.78  1.00  1.78 = 5.22
Standard deviation = 2.28
ª 40  36.33 º
P  t d 40  P «z d P > z d 1.61@ 0.946
¬ 2.28 »¼
3.17 Critical path C–E at 12 days

Activity Daily Crash Costs Maximum Crash

A $100 1 day
B 50 2 days
C 100 1 day
D 150 2 days
E 200 3 days

To crash by 4 days, from 12 days to 8 days,

x Crash C by 1 day ($100) to 11 days total
(a) Estimated time for C [8  (4 u 12)  16]/6 72/6 x Now crash E by 1 day ($200) and A by 1 day ($100) to 10 days
12 weeks total.
2 x Now crash E by 2 days ($400) and D by 2 days ($300) to 8 days
ª (16  8) º 16
(b) Variance for C is « » 1.78 total.
¬ 6 ¼ 9 x Total additional cost to crash 4 days $1,100.
(c) Critical path is A–C–F–H–J–K
3.19 Crash costs per unit time are $600 for A, $900 for B, and
(d) Time on critical path 7.67  12  9.67  2  6.67 $1,000 for C. (a) A offers the cheapest path to a single day reduc-
 2.17 40.17 weeks (rounded) tion. (b) A cannot supply a second reduction, so the next best
(e) Variance on critical path 1  1.78  5.44  0  1.78 choice is B, which adds $900. (c) The total for both days is
 0.03 10.03 $1,500.
36  40.17
(f) Z = =  1.32 which is about 9.6% chance
3.17
(.096 probability) of completing project before week 36.
Note that based on possible rounding in part (d) – where
Time on critical path could be 40.3 – the probability can be
as low as 8.7%. So a student answer between 8.7% and
9.6% is valid.
Summary table follows:

Activity Early Early Late Standard

Activity Time Start Finish Late Start Finish Slack Deviation
A 7.66 0 7.66 0.0 7.66 0 1
B 9.66 7.66 17.33 8 17.66 0.33 3.66
C 12 7.66 19.66 7.66 19.66 0 1.33
D 6.33 7.66 14 25 31.33 17.33 1
E 2 17.33 19.33 17.66 19.66 0.33 0.33
F 9.66 19.66 29.33 19.66 29.33 0 2.33
G 3 19.66 22.66 28.33 31.33 8.66 0.33
H 2 29.33 31.33 29.33 31.33 0 0
I 6 29.33 35.33 32 38 2.66 0
J 6.66 31.33 38 31.33 38 0 1.33
K 2.16 38 40.16 38 40.16 0 0.16
 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 19

3.20 (a) Project completion time 16 (Activities A–D–G) 3.22 (a)

Norm. Time– Activity a m b Expected Time Variance
Activity Crash Time Crash $–Normal $ $/time A 4 6 7 5.83 0.25*
A 1 $600 $600 B 1 2 3 2.00 0.11
B 1 600 600 C 6 6 6 6.00 0.00*
C 0 0 — D 5 8 11 8.00 1.00
D 4 300 75 E 1 9 18 9.17 8.03*
E 3 300 100 F 2 3 6 3.33 0.44
F 1 1,200 1,200 G 1 7 8 6.17 1.36
G 2 600 300 H 4 4 6 4.33 0.11*
I 1 6 8 5.50 1.36*
(b) Total cost $12,300. J 2 5 7 4.83 0.69
(c) Crash D 1 week at an additional cost of $75. K 8 9 11 9.17 0.25*
L 2 4 6 4.00 0.44
(d) Activity Crash Cost M 1 2 3 2.00 0.11*
D 4 $300 N 6 8 10 8.00 0.44*
G 2 600
A
E
1
1 } 600
100
Activity Time
A 5.83
ES
0.00
EF
5.83
LS
0.00
LF
5.83
Slack
0.00
Critical
Yes
7 weeks $1,600 B 2.00 0.00 2.00 9.83 11.83 9.83 No
C 6.00 5.83 11.83 5.83 11.83 0.00 Yes
3.21 (a) Activity a m b te Variance D 8.00 5.83 13.83 9.67 17.67 3.84 No
A 9 10 11 10 0.11 E 9.17 11.83 21.00 11.83 21.00 0.00 Yes
F 3.33 13.83 17.16 17.67 21.00 3.84 No
B 4 10 16 10 4
G 6.17 13.83 20.00 19.16 25.33 5.33 No
C 9 10 11 10 0.11
H 4.33 21.00 25.33 21.00 25.33 0.00 Yes
D 5 8 11 8 1 I 5.50 25.33 30.83 25.33 30.83 0.00 Yes
J 4.83 30.83 35.66 33.17 38.00 2.34 No
(b) Critical path is A– C with mean (te) completion time of K 9.17 30.83 40.00 30.83 40.00 0.00 Yes
20 weeks. The other path is B–D with mean L 4.00 35.66 39.66 38.00 42.00 2.34 No
completion time of 18 weeks. M 2.00 40.00 42.00 40.00 42.00 0.00 Yes
(c) Variance of A– C (variance of A)  (variance of C) N 8.00 42.00 50.00 42.00 50.00 0.00 Yes
0.11  0.11 0.22 The critical path is given by activities: A, C, E, H, I, K, M, N.
Variance of B–D (variance of B) + (variance of D) Completion time is 50 weeks.
41 5 (b) P(Completion in 53 days). 6 Variances on critical path
(d) Probability A–C is finished in 22 weeks or less = 10.55 so, Vcp = 3.25.
ª 53  50 º
22  20 · P  t d 53 P « z d P > z d 0.92@ 0.821 82.1%
§
P¨Z d ¸ P ( Z d 4.26) # 1.00 ¬ 3.25 »¼
© 0.22 ¹
3.23 (a) This project management problem can be solved using
(e) Probability B–D is finished in 22 weeks or less PERT. The results are below. As you can see, the total project
completion time is about 32 weeks. The critical path consists of
§ 22  18 ·
P ¨Z d ¸ P( Z d 1.79) 0.963 activities C, H, M, and O.
© 5 ¹
Project completion time 32.05
(f) The critical path has a relatively small variance and will Project standard deviation 1.00
almost certainly be finished in 22 weeks or less. Path
B–D has a relatively high variance. Due to this, the
probability B–D is finished in 22 weeks or less is only
about 0.96. Since the project is not finished until all ac-
tivities (and paths) are finished, the probability that the
project will be finished in 22 weeks or less is not 1.00
but is approximately 0.96.
20 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Activity Early Early Late Late 3.24 (a) Probability of completion is 17 months or less:
Activity Time Start Finish Start Finish Slack
ª 17  21 º
P  t d 17  P «z d P > z d  2.0 @
A 2.16 0 2.16 10.13 12.3 10.13
¬ 2 »¼
B 3.5 0 3.5 11.88 15.38 11.88
C 11.83 0 11.83 0 11.83 0 1  P > z t 2.0 @ 1  0.97725 0.0228
D 5.16 0 5.16 14.65 19.82 14.65
E 3.83 0 3.83 15.98 19.82 15.98 (b) Probability of completion in 20 months or less:
F 7 2.17 9.16 12.3 19.3 10.13
G 3.92 3.5 7.42 15.38 19.3 11.88 ª 20  21 º
P  t d 20  P «z d P > z d  0.5@
H 7.47 11.83 19.3 11.83 19.3 0 ¬ 2 »¼
I 10.32 11.83 22.15 14.9 25.22 3.06
1  P > z t 0.5@ 1  0.69146 0.3085
J 3.83 11.83 15.66 19.98 23.82 8.15
K 4 5.16 9.16 19.82 23.82 14.65
L 4 3.83 7.83 19.82 23.82 15.98 (c) Probability of completion in 23 months or less:
M 5.92 19.3 25.22 19.3 25.22 0
ª 23  21 º
N 1.23 15.66 16.9 23.82 22.05 8.15 P  t d 23 P «z d P > z d 1.0 @ 0.84134
O 6.83 25.22 32.05 25.22 32.05 0 ¬ 2 »¼
P 7 16.9 23.9 25.05 32.05 8.15
(d) Probability of completion in 25 months or less:

ª 25  21 º
P  t d 25 P «z d P > z d 2.0 @ 0.97725
¬ 2 »¼

3.25 (a)
Project completion time = 14 Weeks
Task Time ES EF LS LF Slack
A 3 0 3 0 3 0
B 2 0 2 2 4 2
C 1 0 1 11 12 11
D 7 3 10 3 10 0
E 6 2 8 4 10 2
(b) As can be seen in the following analysis, the changes F 2 1 3 12 14 11
do not have any impact on the critical path or the total G 4 10 14 10 14 0
project completion time. A summary of the analysis is
(b) To crash to 10 weeks, we follow 2 steps:
below.
„Step 1: crash D by 2 weeks ($150)
Project completion time 32.05 „Crash D and E by 2 weeks each ($100  150)
Project standard deviation 1.00 „Total crash cost $400 additional
Activity Early Early Late Late (c) Using POM for Windows software, minimum project
Activity Time Start Finish Start Finish Slack completion time 7. Additional crashing cost =
$1,550.
A 2.16 0 2.16 10.13 12.3 10.13
B 3.5 0 3.5 11.88 15.38 11.88 Normal Crash Normal Crash Crash Crash Crashing
C 11.83 0 11.83 0 11.83 0 Time Time Cost Cost Cost/Pd By Cost
D 5.16 0 5.16 14.65 19.82 14.65
A 3 2 1,000 1,600 600 1 600
E 3.83 0 3.83 15.98 19.82 15.98 B 2 1 2,000 2,700 700 0 0
F 7 2.16 9.16 12.3 19.3 10.13 C 1 1 300 300 0 0 0
G 3.92 3.5 7.42 15.38 19.3 11.88 D 7 3 1,300 1,600 75 4 300
H 7.46 11.83 19.3 11.83 19.3 0 E 6 3 850 1,000 50 3 150
I 0 11.83 11.83 25.22 25.22 13.38 F 2 1 4,000 5,000 1,000 0 0
J 0 11.83 11.83 23.82 23.82 11.98 G 4 2 1,500 2,000 250 2 500
K 4 5.16 9.16 19.82 23.82 14.65
L 4 3.83 7.83 19.82 23.82 15.98
M 5.92 19.3 25.22 19.3 25.22 0
N 1.23 11.83 13.06 23.82 22.05 11.98
O 6.83 25.22 32.05 25.22 32.05 0
P 7 13.06 20.06 25.05 32.05 11.98
 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 21

3.26 (a)

(c) Which tasks have no slack time

(b)
A, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, P, Q, R, S
Task Time ES EF LS LF Slack
(d) Slack on critical path, by definition, is zero
A 0.0* 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
B 8.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 (e) How many tasks in project 19
C 0.1 8.0 8.1 10.4 10.5 2.4 (f) Man hours for you 33
D 1.0 8.0 9.0 12.0 13.0 4.0
E 1.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2.0 Hours for your assistant 25
F 1.0 9.0 10.0 13.0 14.0 4.0 Committee hours 70
G 2.0 8.0 10.0 9.0 11.0 1.0
(g) Total hours u $25/hr 128 u $25 $3,200
H 3.0 8.0 11.0 11.0 14.0 3.0
I 1.0 10.0 11.0 11.0 12.0 1.0 Keep project in-house.
J 4.0 8.0 12.0 8.0 12.0 0.0
K 2.0 12.0 14.0 12.0 14.0 0.0
Date Time Precedent Precedent Precedent
L 1.0 14.0 15.0 14.0 15.0 0.0
M 0.5 15.0 15.5 15.0 15.5 0.0 A 12
N 2.0 11.0 13.0 12.0 14.0 1.0 B 4 A
O 1.0 13.0 14.0 14.5 15.5 1.5 C 4 A
P 1.5 13.0 14.5 14.0 15.5 1.0 D 12 A
Q 5.0 8.1 13.1 10.5 15.5 2.4 E 6 B C D
R 1.0 15.5 16.5 15.5 16.5 0.0 F 1 E
S 0.5 16.5 17.0 16.5 17.0 0.0 G 3 F
T 1.0 17.0 18.0 17.0 18.0 0.0 H 4 G
U 0.0* 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 0.0 I 4 G
J 2 H I
*Note: Start (A) and Finish (U) are assigned times of zero.
K 1 J
Critical path is A, B, J, K, L, M, R, S, T, U for 18 days. L 1 K
(c) i no, transmissions and drivetrains are not on the M 1 L
critical path. N 5 B C D
O 10 M
ii no, halving engine building time will only reduce P 2 O N
the critical path by one day. Q 2 O N
iii no, it is not on the critical path. R 2 O N
S 1 P Q R
(d) Reallocating workers not involved with critical path
activities to activities along the critical path will re-
duce the critical path length.

3.27 (a) Total project 56 hours (see tables at right and on

next page)
(b) Task with most slack N final arrangement for
venue
22 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT

(b)
Early Early Late Late Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack V V2
Task Start Finish Start Finish Slack
A 7 0 7 0 7 0 2 4*
A 0 12 0 12 0 B 3 7 10 13 16 6 1 1*
B 12 16 20 24 8 C 9 7 16 7 16 0 3 9*
C 12 16 20 24 8 D 4 16 20 25 29 9 1 1*
D 12 24 12 24 0 E 5 16 21 16 21 0 1 1*
E 24 30 24 30 0 F 8 21 29 21 29 0 2 4*
F 30 31 30 31 0 G 8 29 37 29 37 0 1 1*
H 6 37 43 37 43 0 2 4*
G 31 34 31 34 0
H 34 38 34 38 0 Activities on the critical path: A, C, E, F, G, H. Project Comple-
I 34 38 34 38 0 tion time 43.
J 38 40 38 40 0 (c) V 23 # 4.8 (*computed using variances
K 40 41 40 41 0 on the C.P.)
L 41 42 41 42 0 49  43
M 42 43 42 43 0 z = 1.25
4.8
N 24 29 48 53 24
O 43 53 43 53 0 P (t d 49) .89435
P 53 55 53 55 0 P(t t 49) (1  .89435) = 0.10565
Q 53 55 53 55 0
3.31 AON Network
R 53 55 53 55 0
S 55 56 55 56 0
Project 56

INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS

[Problems 3.28 to 3.34 appear on our Companion Web Site home
page at www.prenhall.com/heizer] Critical path is: B  D, at 13 days
3.28 (a) Activity Daily Crash Costs Maximum Crash (days)
A $100 1 day
B 50 2 days
C 100 1 day
D 150 2 days
E 200 3 days
To crash by 4 days, from 13 days to 9 days,
„Crash B by 1 day ($50) to reach 12 days
(b) Critical path is B–E–F–H. „Crash B by a second day ($50) and C by 1 day ($100) to
(c) Time = 16 weeks reach 11 days.
„Crash D by 2 days ($300) and E by 2 days ($400) to
3.29 (a) Expected times for individual activities (using (a + 4m
+ b)/6)). A = 5, B = 6, C = 7, D = 6, E = 3. Expected reach 9 days total.
„Total cost to crash 4 days = $900
project completion time = 15 (Activities A–C–E).
(b) Variance for individual activities (using [(b – a)/6]2). 3.32 (a)
A = 1; B = 1; C = 1; D = 4; E = 0. Project
variance = 6 variances on critical path = 1 + 1 + 0 = 2.
3.30 (a)
 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 23

(b) Expected times and variances: (f) Probability of completion in 80 days or less:
Activity a m b Expected Time Variance ª 80  68.7 º
P  t d 80  P «z d P > z d 3.22 @ 0.99936
A 8 10 12 10.0 0.44 ¬ 3.51 »¼
B 6 7 9 7.2 0.25
C 3 3 4 3.2 0.03 (g) Probability of completion in 90 days or less:
D 10 20 30 20.0 11.11 ª 90  68.7 º
E 6 7 8 7.0 0.11 P  t d 90  P «z d P > z d 6.07@ 0.99999
F 9 10 11 10.0 0.11 ¬ 3.51 »¼
G 6 7 10 7.3 0.44 3.33 The overall purpose of Problem 3.33 is to have students use
H 14 15 16 15.0 0.11 a network to solve a problem that almost all students face. The
I 10 11 13 11.2 0.25 first step is for students to list all courses that they must take, in-
J 6 7 8 7.0 0.11 cluding possible electives, to get a degree from their particular
K 4 7 8 6.7 0.44 college or university. For every course, students should list all the
L 1 2 4 2.2 0.25 immediate predecessors. Then students are asked to attempt to de-
(c) ES, EF, LS, LF, and slack times: velop a network diagram that shows these courses and their imme-
diate predecessors or prerequisite courses.
Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack Critical
This problem can also point out some of the limitations of
A 10.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 Yes the use of project management. As students try to solve this prob-
B 7.2 0.0 7.2 22.8 30.0 22.8 No
lem they may run into several difficulties. First, it is difficult to
C 3.2 0.0 3.2 19.8 23.0 19.8 No
incorporate a minimum or maximum number of courses that a stu-
D 20.0 10.0 30.0 10.0 30.0 0.0 Yes
E 7.0 3.2 10.2 23.0 30.0 19.8 No dent can take during a given semester. In addition, it is difficult to
F 10.0 30.0 40.0 30.0 40.0 0.0 Yes schedule elective courses. Some elective courses have prerequisites,
G 7.3 30.0 37.3 47.7 55.0 17.7 No while others may not. Even so, some of the overall approaches of
H 15.0 40.0 55.0 40.0 55.0 0.0 Yes network analysis can be helpful in terms of laying out the courses
I 11.2 40.0 51.2 50.8 62.0 10.8 No that are required and their prerequisites.
J 7.0 55.0 62.0 55.0 62.0 0.0 Yes Students can also be asked to think about other techniques
K 6.7 62.0 68.7 62.0 68.7 0.0 Yes that can be used in solving this problem. One of the most appropri-
L 2.2 55.0 57.2 66.5 68.7 11.5 No ate approaches would be to use linear programming to incorporate
(d) The critical path is given by the activities: many of the constraints, such as minimum and maximum number
A, D, F, H, J, K of credit hours per semester, that are difficult or impossible to
incorporate in a project network.
Expected project completion time is 68.7 days.
3.34 The Construction Company problem involves 23 separate
(e) Probability of completion in 70 days or less:
activities. These activities, their immediate predecessors, and time
Project variance = sum of variances of activities estimates were given in the problem. One of the most difficult as-
on critical path pects of this problem is to take the data in the table given in the
= 0.44  11.11  0.11  0.11  problem and to construct a network diagram. This network diagram
0.44 = 12.32 is necessary in order to determine beginning and ending node num-
Standard deviation = 3.51 bers that can be used in the computer program to solve this particu-
70  68.7 º lar problem. The network diagram for this problem is as follows:
ª
P  t d 70  P «z d P > z d 0.37@ 0.644
¬ 3.51 »¼
24 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Once this diagram has been developed, activity numbers, estimates for each activity, the expected project length, variance, and
starting and finishing node numbers, and the three time estimates data for all activities. Like the other network problems, these data
for each activity can be entered into the computer program. The include the earliest start time, earliest finish time, latest start time,
computer program calculates the expected time and variance latest time, and slack for all activities. The data are as follows:

Times
Activity Opt Most Pess E(t)
ES EF LS LF Slack
1 1.0 4.00 5.00 3.67 0.67 0.00 3.67 9.00 12.67 9.00
2 2.0 3.00 4.00 3.00 0.33 0.00 3.00 16.50 19.50 16.50
3 3.0 4.00 5.00 4.00 0.33 0.00 4.00 14.50 18.50 14.50
4 7.0 8.00 9.00 8.00 0.33 0.00 8.00 3.50 11.50 3.50
5 4.0 4.00 5.00 4.17 0.17 3.67 7.83 12.67 16.83 9.00
6 1.0 2.00 4.00 2.17 0.50 4.00 6.17 18.50 20.67 14.50
7 4.0 5.00 6.00 5.00 0.33 8.00 13.00 11.50 16.50 3.50
8 1.0 2.00 4.00 2.17 0.50 13.00 15.17 16.50 18.67 3.50
9 3.0 4.00 4.00 3.83 0.17 7.83 11.67 16.83 20.67 9.00
10 1.0 1.00 2.00 1.17 0.17 3.00 4.17 19.50 20.67 16.5
11 18.0 20.00 26.00 20.67 1.33 0.00 20.67 0.00 20.67 0.00
12 1.0 2.00 3.00 2.00 0.33 15.17 17.17 18.67 20.67 3.50
13 1.0 1.00 2.00 1.17 0.17 20.67 21.83 20.67 21.83 0.00
14 0.1 0.14 0.16 0.14 1.00 21.83 21.97 21.83 21.97 0.00
15 0.2 0.30 0.40 0.30 0.03 21.97 22.27 24.84 25.14 2.87
16 1.0 1.00 2.00 1.17 0.17 21.97 23.14 21.97 23.14 0.00
17 1.0 2.00 3.00 2.00 0.33 23.14 25.14 23.14 25.14 0.00
18 3.0 5.00 7.00 5.00 0.67 25.14 30.14 25.14 30.14 0.00
19 0.1 0.10 0.20 0.12 0.02 30.14 30.25 30.14 30.25 0.00
20 0.1 0.14 0.16 0.14 0.00 30.25 30.39 33.33 33.47 3.08
21 2.0 3.00 6.00 3.33 0.67 30.25 33.59 30.25 33.59 0.00
22 0.1 0.10 0.20 0.12 0.02 30.39 30.50 33.47 33.58 3.08
23 0.0 0.20 0.20 0.17 0.03 33.59 33.75 33.59 33.75 0.00
As you can see, the expected project length is about 34 weeks. The activities along the critical path are activities
11, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, and 23.
 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 25

CASE STUDY 3. Crash to 250 days and to 240 days

Normal Crash Crash
1 SOUTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY: A
Activity Time (days) Time (days) Cost/Day
1. A 30 20 $1,500
B 60 20 $3,500
C 65 50 $4,000
D 55 30 $1,900
E 30 25 $9,500
F 0* 0 $0
Activity Mean S.D. Variance G 30 25 $2,500
H 20 10 $2,000
tA = 30 3.33* 11.11
I 30 20 $2,000
tB = 60 10.00 100.00
J 10 8 $6,000
tC = 65 8.33* 69.39
K 0* 0 $0
tD = 55 11.66* 136.10 L 30 20 $4,500
tE = 30 1.67 2.78
*Rounded to zero from 0.1
tF = 0 0.10 0.00
tG = 30 1.67* 2.78 To crash to 250 days (from the current 260 days), select A at
tH = 20 3.33* 11.11 $1,500/day u 10 days = $15,000
tI = 30 6.67* 44.44 To crash to 240 days now (from the current 250 days), select D at
tJ = 10 0.67 0.44 $1,900/day u 10 days = $19,000.
tK = 0 0.10 0.00 Total cost to crash to 240 days = $34,000 additional
tL = 30 6.67* 44.44
*Critical path VIDEO CASE STUDIES
Critical Path = A–C–D–G–H–I–L (260 days) 1 PROJECT MANAGEMENT AT ARNOLD
Variance of Critical Path = 11.11 + 69.39 + 136.1 + 2.78 + PALMER HOSPITAL
11.11 + 44.44 + 44.44 = 319.37 The Arnold Palmer Hospital video for this case is available on the
Standard deviation of critical path = 17.87 days video cassette/DVD from Prentice Hall that accompanies this text
2. P (Completion < 270 days) = P(t d 270) (Running time is 8 minutes). Also note that the Global Company
Profile in Chapter 6 highlights this hospital.
ª 270  260 º
P «Z d P > Z d 0.56 @ 0.712 71.2%
¬ 17.87 »¼ 1. Construction project network

2. The critical path is Activities 1-3-5-6-8-10-11-12-14-16-17-19-

20-21. The project length is 47 months; about four years from
start to finish.
3. Building a hospital is much more complex than an office build-
ing for several reasons. In this case, hundreds of “users” of the
new building had extensive input. Second, the design of the new
layout (circular, pod design) is somewhat radical compared to
traditional “linear” hospitals. Third, the hospital was built with
future expansion in mind. Fourth, the Guiding Principles im-
pacted on design/construction. Fifth, hospitals, by their very na-
ture, are more complex from a safety, health hazard, security,
quiet, serenity perspective than an office building.
4. Since there were 13 months of planning prior to the proposal/
review stage (listed as Activity 1) and the project then took 47
months (for a total of 60 months), 22% of the time was spent
in planning.
Construction itself started with activity 14 (19.75 months); there
were 13  19.75 months of work ( 32.75 months) out of
60 months, or 55% of the time was spent prior to building
beginning.
26 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT

These figures reflect the importance of preplanning placed on 1. The critical path is A–B–D–E–F–G–O with a timeline of
the project. Rather than having to redo walls or rooms, mockups 34 weeks.
and detailed planning meetings saved time on the back end and 2. Activities C, K, L, M, N, Q, R, V, W, Y, and Z have slacks of
resulted in a building that met the needs of patients and staff alike. It 8 or more weeks
always pays to spend extra time on the front end of a large project.
3. Major challenges a project manager faces in a project like
2 MANAGING HARD ROCK’S ROCKFEST Rockfest: (1) keeping in touch with each person responsible
for major activities, (2) last minutes surprises, (3) cost overruns,
There is a short (9 minute) video available from Prentice Hall and
(4) too many fans trying to enter the venue, (5) resignations of
filmed specifically for this text that supplements this case. A brief 2
one of the key managers or promoters, and many others.
minute version of the video also appears or the student CD in the text.

Network diagram

Hard Rock’s ES, EF, LS, LF, and Slack 4. Work breakdown structure, with example of level 1, 2, 3, 4
tasks
Activity Early Early Late 1.0 Rockfest event, with site selected (A) [level 1]
time Start Finish Late Start Finish Slack
1.1 Select local promoter (B) [level 2]
A 7 0 7 0 7 0
B 3 7 10 7 10 0 1.11 Web site (D) [level 3]
C 3 7 10 18 21 11 1.12 TV deal (E)
D 5 10 15 10 15 0 1.13 Hire director (F)
E 6 15 21 15 21 0
F 4 21 25 21 25 0 1.131 Camera placement (G) [level 4]
G 2 25 27 25 27 0 1.14 Headline entertainers (H)
H 4 10 14 16 20 6
I 4 14 18 20 24 6
1.141 Support entertainers (I)
J 10 18 28 24 34 6 1.142 Travel for talent (J)
K 2 10 12 21 23 11 1.15 Staff travel (P)
L 3 15 18 23 26 8
M 8 18 26 26 34 8
1.16 Merchandise deals (Y)
N 6 10 16 28 34 18 1.161 On-line sales of merchandise (Z)
O 7 27 34 27 34 0 1.17 Hire sponsor coordinator (Q)
P 20 10 30 14 34 4
Q 4 10 14 19 23 9 1.171 Finalize sponsors (R)
R 4 14 18 23 27 9 1.172 Signage for sponsors (S)
S 3 25 28 31 34 6
1.2 Hire production manager (C)
T 4 7 11 13 17 6
U 6 11 17 17 23 6 1.21 Sound/staging (N)
V 7 11 18 23 30 12 1.22 Venue capacity (K)
W 4 18 22 30 34 12
1.221 Ticketmaster contract (L)
X 8 17 25 23 31 6
Y 6 10 16 22 28 12 1.222 On-site ticketing (M)
Z 6 16 22 28 34 12
 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 27

1.3 Hire operations manager (T) Table 1:

1.31 Site plan (U) Latest and Earliest Starting Times and Slack
1.311 Power, etc (X) Activity LS ES S
1.32 Security director (V) A. Identify faculty 8 0 8
1.321 Set police/fire plan (W) B. Arrange transport 12 0 12
C. Identify material 0 0 0
Answers may vary somewhat at the level 3 and level 4. D. Arrange accommodations 19 5 14
Level 2 activities should be activities B, C, and T. E. Identify team 13 5 8
F. Bring in team 20 12 8
INTERNET CASE STUDIES* G. Transport faculty 19 7 12
H. Print materials 5 5 0
1 THE FAMILY PLANNING RESEARCH I. Deliver materials 15 15 0
CENTER OF NIGERIA J. Train 22 22 0
This case covers three aspects of project management: K. Fieldwork 37 37 0
„Critical path scheduling
„Crashing the Schedule
„Crashing
The objective is a 60-day schedule rather than a 67-day one;
„Personnel smoothing
thus, the team must investigate the possibilities of crashing ac-
The statement by Mr. Odaga that the project will take 94 days tivities on the critical path(s) to reduce project duration using
is a red herring. That is the sum of all the task times that would be the data exhibited in the case. Table 5 shows the sequence of
the length of the project only if all of the tasks were done serially crashing to get to various project lengths. Getting to 60 days is
with none in parallel. relatively easy and relatively cheap. Activity C is reduced two
Therefore, the assignment questions would be as follows: days at a cost of $50 per day. The next cheapest alternative is
„Network Formulation Activity I, which can be cut five days for a total cost of $400.
Figure 1 shows a PERT (activity-on-arrow) formulation of a Therefore, Dr. Watage needs to request $500 from the Pathmin-
network based on the data on precedences and task (activity) der Foundation to crash the project to the 60-day duration. The
times for each activity. Complete enumeration shows that the instructor can also use this data to indicate to the students how
critical path is C–H–I–J–K of length 67. Table 1 shows the ear- further crashing would generate multiple parallel paths and
liest start and finish times and the slacks for each activity, con- necessitate use of a heuristic rule to select the activities to be cut
firming this definition of the critical path. further to shorten the network.
„Warning
„Workforce Smoothing
The case asks whether the effort can be carried out with the current Take up the workforce smoothing before you take up crashing.
staffing of 10 individuals. Figure 2 shows the network through Ac- After you have smoothed out the labor and then crashed the pro-
tivity I (J and K have no staffing) with the staffing requirements in ject by 7 days, the network A through I will go from 22 to
the little triangles. Table 2 shows a blank form that can be used to 15 days and the project will be infeasible with the 10 personnel
insert the staffing by activity and compute the daily staffing require- at hand. Don’t try to redo the smoothing. Just indicate to the stu-
ments. This form is used in Table 3 and shows the staffing require- dents that the extra money used for crashing might have been
ment with each activity beginning on its earliest start date. There used to hire temporary help to overcome this constraint. Some
are five days on which there are requirements for more than 10 students may try to do the crashing and then the smoothing and
workers. Delaying of some of the activities with slack (Activities become stymied by the resulting unfeasibility.
D, E, F, and G) results in the feasible schedule shown in Table 4.
Figure 2: Network Showing Manpower Needs
Figure 1: Network Using Activity-on-Arrow Notation

*These case studies are found on our companion web site at

www.prenhall.com/heizer.
28 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Table 2: Blank Staffing Chart

Activities Days
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
Total

Table 3: Chart Showing Each Day’s Manpower equirements If All Activities Are Started at ES
Activities Days
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
A 2 2 2 2 2
B 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
C 2 2 2 2 2
D 1 1 1
E 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
F 1 1
G 2 2 2
H 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
I 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total 7 7 7 7 7 14 14 13 12 12 10 10 7 7 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Table 4: Minimum Number of Men Needed for 22 Days Completion Time

Activities Days
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
A 2 2 2 2 2
B 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
C 2 2 2 2 2
D 1 1 1
E 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
F 1 1
G 2 2 2
H 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
I 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 3

Table 5:
Crashing Procedure
Steps Length in Days Total Cost
1. Original network 67 $25,400
2. Crash C (5-3) 65 25,500
3. Crash I (7-2) 60 25,900
4. Crash H (10-9) 59 26,150
Second critical path emerges
5. Crash A (5-2) and H (9-6) 56 27,200
Third critical path emerges
6. Crash J (15-10) 51 29,200
7. Crash K (30-20) 41 33,200
 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 29

2 HAYGOOD BROTHERS CONSTRUCTION 2.

Activity ES LS Slack
a m b te
2
Activity V
1 A 0 0 0
A 4 5 6 5 9
B 5 5 0
B 2 5 8 5 1
4
C 10 10 0
C 5 7 9 7 9
1
D 10 23 13
D 4 5 6 5 9
4
E 17 17 0
E 2 4 6 4 9
F 21 33 31 12 23
F 3 5 9 5 31 1
1
G 21 34 13
G 4 5 6 5 9
H 21 34 23 13 23
H 3 4 7 4 31 1
9
4
I 21 21 0
I 5 7 9 7 9
1
J 28 28 0
J 10 11 12 11 9
4
K 39 39 0
K 4 6 8 6 9
1
L 39 44 31 5 31
L 7 8 9 8 9
M 47 52 31 5 31
M 4 5 10 5 23 1
4
N 45 45 0
N 5 7 9 7 9
1
O 52 52 0
O 5 6 7 6 9
1
P 58 58 0
P 2 3 4 3 9

Due date  Expected date 61  60

1. The AOA critical path is A–B–C–E–I–J–K–N–O–P (61 days). 3. Z= 0.52
V 1.92
A delay in the completion of an event on the critical path will P(TS ) 30.15%
delay the entire project by an equal amount of time.
3 SHALE OIL COMPANY
1. Determine the expected shutdown time, and the probability
the shutdown will be completed one week earlier.
2. What are the probabilities that Shale finishes the mainte-
nance project one day, two days, three days, four days, five
days, or six days earlier?
From the precedence data supplied in the problem, we can
develop the following AON network.
30 CHAPTER 3 PROJECT MANAGEMENT

The following table indicates the expected times, variances, and slacks needed to complete the rest of the case.
Most
Activity Opt Likely Pess E(t) V ES EF LS LF Slack
1 1.0 2.0 2.5 1.92 0.25 0.00 1.92 0.00 1.92 0.000
2 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.00 0.17 1.92 3.92 1.92 3.92 0.000
3 2.0 3.0 4.0 3.00 0.33 3.92 6.92 3.92 6.92 0.000
4 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.00 0.33 3.92 5.92 22.50 24.50 18.580
5 1.0 2.0 4.0 2.17 0.50 3.92 6.08 10.25 12.42 6.333
6 2.0 2.5 3.0 2.50 0.17 3.92 6.42 13.42 15.92 9.500
7 2.0 4.0 5.0 3.83 0.50 3.92 7.75 29.58 33.42 25.670
8 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.00 0.33 6.92 8.92 6.92 8.92 0.000
9 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.50 0.17 5.92 7.42 26.67 28.17 20.750
10 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.50 0.17 5.92 7.42 24.50 26.00 18.580
11 2.0 2.5 3.0 2.50 0.17 6.08 8.58 19.92 22.42 13.830
12 15.0 20.0 30.0 20.83 2.50 6.08 26.92 12.42 33.25 6.330
13 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.50 0.17 6.42 7.92 15.92 17.42 9.500
14 3.0 5.0 8.0 5.17 0.83 6.42 11.58 28.08 33.25 21.670
15 3.0 8.0 15.0 8.33 2.00 7.75 16.08 33.42 41.75 25.670
16 14.0 21.0 28.0 21.00 2.33 8.92 29.92 8.92 29.92 0.000
17 1.0 5.0 10.0 5.17 1.50 7.42 12.58 28.17 33.33 20.750
18 2.0 5.0 10.0 5.33 1.33 7.42 12.75 26.00 31.33 18.580
19 5.0 10.0 20.0 10.83 2.50 8.58 19.42 22.42 33.25 13.830
20 10.0 15.0 25.0 15.83 2.50 7.92 23.75 17.42 33.25 9.500
21 4.0 5.0 8.0 5.33 0.67 29.92 35.25 29.92 35.25 0.000
22 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.00 0.33 12.75 14.75 31.33 33.33 18.580
23 1.0 2.0 2.5 1.92 0.25 14.75 16.67 33.33 35.25 18.580
24 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.00 0.33 26.92 28.92 33.25 35.25 6.330
25 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.00 0.33 23.75 25.75 33.25 35.25 9.500
26 2.0 4.0 6.0 4.00 0.67 16.08 20.08 41.75 45.75 25.670
27 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.00 0.17 35.25 37.25 35.25 37.25 0.000
28 1.0 3.0 5.0 3.00 0.67 37.25 40.25 37.25 40.25 0.000
29 3.0 5.0 10.0 5.50 1.17 40.25 45.75 40.25 45.75 0.000
From the table, we can see that the expected shutdown time is 45.75, or 46 days. There are nine activities on the critical path.

z
2
Activity V V Finish Time Probability
1 0.25 0.0625 One day early 0.353 36.3
2 0.17 0.0289 Two days early 0.706 24.0
3 0.33 0.1089 Three days early 1.058 14.5
8 0.33 0.1089 Four days early 1.411 7.9
16 2.33 5.4289 Five days early 1.764 3.9*
Six days early 2.117 1.7
21 0.67 0.4489
Seven days early 2.470 0.7
27 0.17 0.0289
28 0.67 0.4489 *The appropriate procedure for using the normal distribution gives 3.0%—
roughly a 30% difference.
29 1.17 1.3689
Variance for critical path: 8.0337 There is, by the approximate procedure used, a 3.9% probability
of finishing five days, or one week, early.
Therefore, V = 8.0337 2.834. As an approximation, we can 3. Shale Oil is considering increasing the budget to shorten the
use the customary equation for the normal distribution: shutdown. How do you suggest the company proceed?
In order to shorten the shutdown, Shale Oil would have to de-
Due date  E (t )
z termine the costs of decreasing the activities on the critical
V path. This is the vessel and column branch of the network,
(Note: This might be a good time to discuss the difference be- which is typically the longest section in a shutdown. The cost
tween a continuous and a discrete probability distribution and the of reducing activity time by one time unit for each activity in
appropriate procedure for using a continuous distribution as an this branch would have to be calculated. The activity with the
approximation to a discrete, if you have not already done so.) lowest of these costs could then be acted upon. Perhaps the re-
pairs to the vessels and columns could be expedited with work-
ers from some of the other branches with high slack time.
However, delivery on materials could be an overriding factor.