Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - [email protected] - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a w
a deadly weapon if you w
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are ge
garbage out. And if you ne
a given stock, y
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 104 Remember! Focus on dec
Face Value (Rs) 1.0 evid
No. of Shares (Crore) 315.8
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 32,748

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 28.4% Please! It's your money. P
cause you to lose it all! I've
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 28.2% but you alone are respons
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 23.4% ever after! I am not a sa
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 1.3 analyzing companies on
instead of a map, for you
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 29.5%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 26.5
Latest P/E (x) 17.8
P/FCF 9.39
P/OCF 7.59
Debt 11534.2
debt/marketcap 35.22%
CALCULATIONS WITH MIN AVERAGE(3yrs) CURRENT
Min all average EPS(10,7,5,3yrs) 3.90 6.89 6.64
Windage growth % 6%
Windage PE 1 11.5170276506 twice of windage growth
2 17.7500534645 min PE
Minimum of 1 and 2 above 11.52
MARR(Min acceptable return rate) 15%
Min AVERAGE(3yrs) Current
Future 10yr EPS (after 10yrs) 12 21 20
Future Price after 10 yrs 133 236 228
Present Price (Future price/4) 33 59 57
MOS (PresentPrice/2 for 50%) 17 30 28
 Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
a deadly weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
careful of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel
cause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
but you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
ever after! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
analyzing companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
instead of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!

ndage growth
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Equity Share Capital 37 39 39 59 88 88 132 140 211 316
Reserves 1,127 1,570 1,833 2,230 2,871 3,236 4,265 8,132 9,674 10,647
Borrowings 818 1,261 4,602 4,904 4,840 5,131 6,069 10,349 10,374 11,534
Other Liabilities 1,833 2,287 5,586 5,652 7,588 9,143 9,438 13,748 17,240 20,833
Total 3,816 5,156 12,060 12,845 15,387 17,598 19,904 32,370 37,498 43,330

Net Block 1,455 1,765 4,692 5,277 5,919 6,129 7,147 12,193 14,712 18,423
Capital Work in Progress 181 392 446 386 647 956 1,397 1,935 2,585 1,067
Investments 47 47 94 72 75 65 590 474 792 855
Other Assets 2,133 2,953 6,828 7,111 8,746 10,448 10,770 17,769 19,409 22,985
Total 3,816 5,156 12,060 12,845 15,387 17,598 19,904 32,370 37,498 43,330

Working Capital 300 666 1,242 1,458 1,158 1,305 1,332 4,021 2,169 2,152
Debtors 769 956 3,013 2,940 3,238 3,014 4,654 4,655 5,624 6,166
Inventory 675 1,038 2,250 2,604 3,282 3,750 2,285 3,072 4,013 4,663
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 42 42 74 42 39 32 46 40 36 35
Inventory Turnover 10 8 7 10 9 9 16 14 14 14
Fixed Asset Turnover 4.6 4.7 3.1 4.8 5.1 5.7 5.2 3.5 3.8 3.4
Debt/Equity 0.7 0.8 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1
Return on Equity 20% 28% 10% 20% 37% 39% 40% 26% 23% 19%
Return on Capital Employed 20% 24% 9% 15% 24% 25% 25% 19% 18% 16%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Trailing
Sales 6,697 8,238 14,767 25,298 30,414 34,661 37,216 42,376 56,303 63,523 65,540
% Growth YOY 23% 79% 71% 20% 14% 7% 14% 33% 13%
Expenses 6,362 7,471 13,955 23,822 28,017 31,819 33,668 38,282 51,174 58,175 60,349
Material Cost (% of Sales) 62% 64% 64% 66% 65% 65% 60% 61% 61% 58% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 18% 15% 16% 17% 17% 18% 19% 19% 20% 22% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Operating Profit 335 767 812 1,477 2,397 2,842 3,548 4,093 5,129 5,348 5,191
Operating Profit Margin 5% 9% 5% 6% 8% 8% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8%
Other Income 332 169 145 322 311 214 177 424 125 333 328
Other Income as % of Sales 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5%
Depreciation 260 247 380 715 817 921 1,087 1,059 1,575 2,058 2,248
Interest 63 58 165 250 294 318 345 375 411 423 479
Interest Coverage(Times) 6 12 3 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 7
Profit before tax (PBT) 343 631 412 834 1,596 1,817 2,293 3,083 3,267 3,200 2,793
% Growth YOY 84% -35% 103% 91% 14% 26% 34% 6% -2%
PBT Margin 5% 8% 3% 3% 5% 5% 6% 7% 6% 5% 4%
Tax 109 189 215 384 499 526 519 910 1,007 1,102 952
Net profit 234 443 196 451 1,097 1,292 1,774 2,172 2,260 2,098 1,840
% Growth YOY 90% -56% 130% 143% 18% 37% 22% 4% -7%
Net Profit Margin 3% 5% 1% 2% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3%
EPS 0.8 1.6 0.7 1.6 3.6 4.2 5.8 6.9 7.2 6.6 5.8
% Growth YOY 89% -56% 129% 120% 18% 37% 19% 4% -7%
Price to earning 19.3 17.8 34.7 23.7 21.2 36.4 20.5 24.0 29.0 22.5 17.8 17.750053 36.3555898
Price 16 28 25 38 76 153 118 165 207 150 104
Dividend Payout 27.0% 27.3% 33.6% 26.5% 28.8% 30.7% 25.6% 18.1% 29.7% 29.4%
Market Cap 4,517 7,861 6,819 10,674 23,301 46,953 36,441 52,197 65,464 47,274
Retained Earnings 171 322 130 331 781 895 1,320 1,780 1,590 1,482
Buffett's $1 Test 4.9

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS Min Average Current

Sales Growth 28.4% 23.2% 15.9% 19.5% 16%
PBT Growth 28.2% 34.0% 14.9% 11.8%
PBT Margin 5.4% 5.4% 5.9% 6.0%
NetProfit Growth 27.6% 40.3% 13.9% 5.8% 6%
Price to Earning 24.9 25.3 26.5 25.2 24.9
EPS 3.9 5.1 6.1 6.9 3.9 6.9 6.6

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.

10yrs 9yrs 8yrs 7yrs 6yrs 5yrs 4yrs 3yrs 2yrs MIN Max Average
Sales Growth% 28% 29% 34% 17% 16% 16% 20% 22% 13% 13% 18%
NetProfit Growth % 28% 21% 40% 29% 14% 13% 6% -2% -7% 6% -1%
PE growth 2% 3% -6% -1% 1% -11% 3% -3% -22%
 Cash Flow Statement
MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-10
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Mar-18 Mar-19 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 408 411 589 1,486 2,695 3,390 2,188 3,800 3,264 4,312 22,543
% Growth YoY 1% 43% 152% 81% 26% -35% 74%-14% 32%
Cash from Investing Activity -373 -805 -1,874 -1,089 -1,372 -2,844 -1,906 -6,145
-3,194 -3,311 -22,914
Cash from Financing Activity 31 401 1,380 -256 -1,080 495 -263 5,518
-2,221 -225 3,779
Net Cash Flow 67 6 95 142 243 1,040 19 3,172
-2,152 777 3,408
CFO/Sales 6% 5% 4% 6% 9% 10% 6% 9% 6% 7%
CFO/Net Profit 175% 93% 300% 330% 246% 262% 123% 175% 144% 206%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF 93 199 225 921 2,088 2,453 1,032 2,162 2,026 3,488 14,687
Average FCF (3 Years) 2,559
FCF Growth YoY 113% 13% 310% 127% 17% -58% 109% -6% 72%
FCF/Sales 1% 2% 2% 4% 7% 7% 3% 5% 4% 5%
FCF/Net Profit 38% 51% 87% 207% 273% 284% 80% 139% 127% 216%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Sales Growth 23.0% 79.2% 71.3% 20.2% 14.0% 7.4% 13.9% 32.9%
PBT Growth 84.2% -34.8% 102.7% 91.3% 13.8% 26.2% 34.4% 6.0%
Net Profit Growth 89.6% -55.7% 129.6% 143.4% 17.8% 37.3% 22.5% 4.0%
Dividend Growth 62.8% -18.2% 34.7% 87.5% 20.0% 25.0% -15.1% 68.7%
Operating Cash Flow Growth 0.5% 43.4% 152.4% 81.4% 25.8% -35.4% 73.6% -14.1%
Free Cash Flow Growth 113.4% 12.9% 310.1% 126.7% 17.5% -57.9% 109.4% -6.3%

Operating Margin 5.0% 9.3% 5.5% 5.8% 7.9% 8.2% 9.5% 9.7% 9.1%
PBT Margin 5.1% 7.7% 2.8% 3.3% 5.2% 5.2% 6.2% 7.3% 5.8%
Net Margin 3.5% 5.4% 1.3% 1.8% 3.6% 3.7% 4.8% 5.1% 4.0%

Debtor Days 41.9 42.4 74.5 42.4 38.9 31.7 45.6 40.1 36.5
Inventory Turnover 9.9 7.9 6.6 9.7 9.3 9.2 16.3 13.8 14.0
Fixed Asset Turnover 4.6 4.7 3.1 4.8 5.1 5.7 5.2 3.5 3.8
Debt/Equity 0.7 0.8 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0
Debt/Assets 21.4% 24.5% 38.2% 38.2% 31.5% 29.2% 30.5% 32.0% 27.7%
Interest Coverage (Times) 6.4 12.0 3.5 4.3 6.4 6.7 7.6 9.2 9.0
Return on Equity 20.1% 27.5% 10.5% 19.7% 37.1% 38.9% 40.3% 26.3% 22.9%
Return on Capital Employed 20.5% 24.0% 8.9% 15.1% 24.2% 25.3% 25.2% 18.6% 18.2%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 93 199 225 921 2,088 2,453 1,032 2,162 2,026
Mar/19
12.8%
-2.0%
-7.2%
0.0%
32.1%
72.2%

8.4%
5.0%
3.3%

35.4
13.6
3.4
1.1
26.6%
8.6
19.1%
16.1%
3,488
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
12% Profit Margin Capital Alloc
50%
Check for a rising trend and
10% 40% Numbers > 20% long term a
has zero/marginal debt. Com
8%
30%
6%
20%
4%
2% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 10%
Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

70,000
Revenue Revenue and Pro
200%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ris
60,000 150% Compare grow

50,000
100%
40,000
50%
30,000
20,000 0%
Jan/11 Jan/13
10,000 -50%
- -100%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

3,500 Profit Over Time Operating and

5,000 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
3,000 which are rising over tim
4,000
2,500
2,000 3,000
1,500 2,000
1,000
1,000
500
- -
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/10 Jan/12 Ja

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Operating Margin 5% 9% 5% 6% 8% 8% 10% 10% 9%
PBT Margin 5% 8% 3% 3% 5% 5% 6% 7% 6%
Net Margin 3% 5% 1% 2% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
ROE 20% 28% 10% 20% 37% 39% 40% 26% 23%
ROCE 20% 24% 9% 15% 24% 25% 25% 19% 18%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Revenue Growth 23% 79% 71% 20% 14% 7% 14% 33% 13%
PBT Growth 84% -35% 103% 91% 14% 26% 34% 6% -2%
Net Profit Growth 90% -56% 130% 143% 18% 37% 22% 4% -7%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue 6,697 8,238 14,767 25,298 30,414 34,661 37,216 42,376 56,303
PBT 343 631 412 834 1,596 1,817 2,293 3,083 3,267
Net Profit 234 443 196 451 1,097 1,292 1,774 2,172 2,260

Cash Flows
Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Operating Cash Flow 408 411 589 1,486 2,695 3,390 2,188 3,800 3,264
Free Cash Flow 93 199 225 921 2,088 2,453 1,032 2,162 2,026
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
% has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
% which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
% March of that year

%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
Compare growth rates with a close competitor.
%

%
Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19
%

%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.
0
0
0
0
-
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/19
8%
5%
3%

Mar/19
19%
16%

Mar/19
63,523
3,200
2,098

Mar/19
4,312
3,488
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 62% 64% 64% 66% 65% 65% 60% 61% 61% 58%
Change in Inventory 0% 2% -1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Power and Fuel 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2%
Other Mfr. Exp 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Employee Cost 18% 15% 16% 17% 17% 18% 19% 19% 20% 22%
Selling and Admin Cost 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Other Expenses 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3%
Operating Profit 5% 6% 7% 3% 6% 4% 10% 10% 8% 8%
Other Income 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%
Depreciation 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3%
Interest 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Profit Before Tax 5% 8% 3% 3% 5% 5% 6% 7% 6% 5%
Tax 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Net Profit 4% 5% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3%
Dividend Amount 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1%
Reserves 30% 30% 15% 17% 19% 18% 21% 25% 26% 25%
Borrowings 21% 24% 38% 38% 31% 29% 30% 32% 28% 27%
Other Liabilities 48% 44% 46% 44% 49% 52% 47% 42% 46% 48%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 38% 34% 39% 41% 38% 35% 36% 38% 39% 43%
Capital Work in Progress 5% 8% 4% 3% 4% 5% 7% 6% 7% 2%
Investments 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 3% 1% 2% 2%
Other Assets 56% 57% 57% 55% 57% 59% 54% 55% 52% 53%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 20% 19% 25% 23% 21% 17% 23% 14% 15% 14%
Inventory 18% 20% 19% 20% 21% 21% 11% 9% 11% 11%
Cash & Bank 9% 7% 4% 5% 6% 11% 9% 15% 7% 8%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LT

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 2,942 2,627 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 3,384 2,698 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 3,891 2,770 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 4,281 2,720 4 FY21
5 FY22 4,709 2,672 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 5,179 2,624 Sales 16% 6 FY23
7 FY24 5,438 2,460 PBT 15% 7 FY24
8 FY25 5,710 2,306 FCF 11% 8 FY25
9 FY26 5,996 2,162 9 FY26
10 FY27 6,296 2,027 10 FY27
10 62,956 20,270 10
Intrinsic Value 51,165 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 32,748 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -36% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
3,070 2,741 Year 4-6 15%
3,684 2,937 Year 7-10 10%
4,421 3,147 Discount Rate 12%
5,085 3,231
5,847 3,318
6,724 3,407
7,397 3,346
8,136 3,286
8,950 3,227
9,845 3,170
147,676 47,548
Intrinsic Value 85,187
Current Mkt. Cap. 32,748
Premium/(Discount) to IV -62%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name ON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/19 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 1,919.1 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 6.9 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 42,896 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 32,748 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
ON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD
Mar/19

1,919.1
8.5
13.9

69,479
32,748

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 2,559 58,245

32,748
Years 1-5 6-10 178%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) 5,706

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 2,942 15% 2,627
2 3,384 15% 2,698
3 3,891 15% 2,770
4 4,475 15% 2,844
5 5,146 15% 2,920
6 5,764 12% 2,920
7 6,456 12% 2,920
8 7,230 12% 2,920
9 8,098 12% 2,920
10 9,070 12% 2,920

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 9,251
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 28,460
Terminal Value 29,786
Total PV of Cash Flows 58,245
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 32,748

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
EMS LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD
Particulars Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 243 391 260 445 765 863 1,292
Net Profit Margin 4% 5% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3%
Return on Equity 20% 28% 10% 20% 37% 39% 40%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 5,010
Current P/E (x) 20.3
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 100,201
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 32,262
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 32,748

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
D
Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
1,554 1,597 1,613 23% 16%
4% 3% 3%
26% 23% 19%
 Intrinsic Value Range
MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho 51,165 85,187 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham 42,896 69,479 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF 58,245 understand this business?
Expected Return 32,262
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 32,748 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
Sales ### ### 13,420 ### ### ### 15,105 ### ### ###
% Growth YOY 37% 13% 13% 14% 11% 14%
Expenses ### ### 12,192 ### ### ### 13,805 ### ### ###
Operating Profit 1,211 1,135 1,228 1,249 1,500 1,412 1,300 1,393 1,243 1,255
Other Income 70 -59 74 61 65 81 73 90 89 75
Depreciation 271 377 398 394 407 447 488 571 552 637
Interest 84 118 77 103 113 100 132 88 103 156
Profit before tax 926 582 827 813 1,045 946 753 824 677 538
PBT Margin 8% 4% 6% 6% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3%
% Growth YOY 13% 63% -9% 1% -35% -43%
Tax 220 234 234 252 288 327 258 269 248 177
Net profit 475 278 436 364 518 618 371 389 429 361
% Growth YOY 9% 122% -15% 7% -17% -42%
OPM 11% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7%
COMPANY NAME MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 315.79
Face Value 1
Current Price 103.7
Market Capitalization 32747.78

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Sales 6696.76 8238.2 14766.6 25298.4 30414.4 34660.7
Raw Material Cost 4182.46 5282.2 9426.6 16786.8 19665 22404.4
Change in Inventory 16.58 136.9 -116.9 303 303.6 772.9
Power and Fuel 102.77 123.9 266.8 518.9 594.5 615.2
Other Mfr. Exp 216.65 263.6 484.6 608.2 708.1 757.4
Employee Cost 1200.44 1258.9 2317 4282.7 5106.4 6365.2
Selling and admin 452.39 501.6 749.5 1113.5 1292.5 1481.8
Other Expenses 224.03 178.1 593.6 814.6 954.4 968.1
Other Income 331.77 168.7 144.5 321.5 310.6 214
Depreciation 260.09 246.5 379.6 714.5 817.2 920.6
Interest 63.48 57.6 164.9 249.5 294.3 317.8
Profit before tax 342.8 631.4 411.6 834.2 1596.2 1817.1
Tax 109.17 188.5 215.3 383.5 499.4 525.6
Net profit 242.77 390.8 259.6 444.5 765 862.5
Dividend Amount 65.56 106.7 87.3 117.6 220.5 264.6

Quarters
Report Date Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18
Sales 11254.03 13077.43 13420.43 14387.65 15407.83 14775.46
Expenses 10043.36 11942.21 12192 13138.4 13907.74 13363.36
Other Income 69.52 -59.31 73.54 60.93 64.95 81.03
Depreciation 270.69 376.79 397.83 393.71 406.85 447.05
Interest 83.8 117.55 77.11 103.15 112.99 100.46
Profit before tax 925.7 581.57 827.03 813.32 1045.2 945.62
Tax 219.84 234.25 233.58 251.61 287.7 327.27
Net profit 474.78 277.99 436.2 364.49 518.36 618.35
Operating Profit 1210.67 1135.22 1228.43 1249.25 1500.09 1412.1

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Equity Share Capital 37.46 38.8 38.8 58.8 88.2 88.2
Reserves 1127.46 1570 1832.5 2230.2 2871.1 3235.6
Borrowings 817.91 1260.7 4602.3 4903.9 4839.7 5130.6
Other Liabilities 1833.13 2286.5 5586.2 5652.1 7587.9 9143.1
Total 3815.96 5156 12059.8 12845 15386.9 17597.5
Net Block 1454.77 1764.5 4692.2 5277 5918.9 6128.9
Capital Work in Progress 180.84 392.1 445.8 385.9 647.1 955.8
Investments 47.09 46.5 93.8 71.6 74.9 64.9
Other Assets 2133.26 2952.9 6828 7110.5 8746 10447.9
Total 3815.96 5156 12059.8 12845 15386.9 17597.5
Receivables 768.77 956 3012.7 2940 3238.4 3014.4
Inventory 675.18 1037.6 2249.6 2603.6 3282.2 3750
Cash & Bank 343.05 353.2 455.7 594.4 906.1 1891.9
No. of Equity Shares 374597000 387547000 387547000 587946240 881919360 881919360
New Bonus Shares 195982080
Face value 1 1 1 1 1 1

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Cash from Operating Activity 408.32 410.5 588.7 1486 2695 3389.7
Cash from Investing Activity -372.89 -805.4 -1874.1 -1088.6 -1372.3 -2844.4
Cash from Financing Activity 31.17 401 1380 -255.8 -1080.1 494.5
Net Cash Flow 66.6 6.1 94.6 141.6 242.6 1039.8

PRICE: 16.33 28.29 24.54 38.35 75.72 152.58

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 276.59 277.89 277.89 278.33 307.73 307.73
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

37216.3 42375.5 56302.8 63522.9
22391.5 25757.5 34539.6 36903.4
-17.8 6.8 227.5 165.1
622.8 650.4 780.4 976.3
862.2 949 1440 1759.2
7157.3 8090.9 11067.8 14169.4
1565 1830.7 2301.9 2775
1051.5 1010.6 1272.1 1756.3
176.9 423.5 124.6 333.3
1087.2 1059.1 1575.2 2058.2
345 374.9 410.8 423.2
2292.9 3082.7 3267.1 3200.3
519.2 910.3 1007.2 1102.2
1292.3 1554.3 1597 1613.1
330.75 280.8 473.63 473.7

Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19

15104.97 16472.98 17169.47 16792.53
13804.87 15079.58 15926.7 15537.52
72.54 90.45 89.25 75.47
487.94 571.44 551.78 636.52
131.54 88.16 102.99 155.92
753.16 824.25 677.25 538.04
257.68 269.26 247.94 177.4
371.07 389.06 429.31 360.64
1300.1 1393.4 1242.77 1255.01

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

 132.3 140.4 210.5 315.8
4264.8 8132.3 9673.6 10646.9
6068.7 10349.3 10373.6 11534.2
9438.2 13747.7 17240 20833.3
19904 32369.7 37497.7 43330.2
7146.9 12192.6 14712.3 18422.7
1397 1934.8 2584.9 1066.8
589.7 473.7 791.6 855.4
10770.4 17768.6 19408.9 22985.3
19904 32369.7 37497.7 43330.2
4653.7 4655.2 5623.6 6166.3
2285 3071.6 4013.2 4663.4
1771.7 4886.6 2781.5 3546.9
1.323E+09 1403526327 2105289491 3157934237
440959680 701763164 1052644746
1 1 1 1

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

2188.4 3799.7 3264 4312.4
-1906.1 -6145.3 -3194.1 -3310.5
-263.2 5517.6 -2221.4 -224.6
19.1 3172 -2151.5 777.3

118.42 165.29 207.3 149.7

307.73 315.79 315.79 315.79

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