INVESTMENT: UNIT - 1

Investment involves making of a sacrifice in the present with the hope of

deriving future benefits. Two most important features of an investment are
current sacrifice and future benefit. Investment is the sacrifice of certain present
values for the uncertain future reward. It involves numerous decision such as
type, mix, amount, timing, grade etc, of investment the decision making has to
be continues as well as investment may be defined as an activity that commits
funds in any financial/physical form in the present with an expectation of
receiving additional return in the future. The expectation brings with it a
probability that the quantum of return may vary from a minimum to a maximum.
This possibility of variation in the actual return is known as investment risk.
Thus every investment involves a return and risk. Investment has many
meaning and facets. However, investment can be interpreted broadly from three
angles -
- economic,
- layman,
- financial.
Economic investment includes the commitment of the fund for net
addition to the capital stock of the economy. The net additions to the capital
stock means an increase in building equipments or inventories over the amount
of equivalent goods that existed, say, one year ago at the same time.
The layman uses of the term investment as any commitment of funds for
a future benefit not necessarily in terms of return. For example a commitment of
money to buy a new car is certainly an investment from an individual point of
view.
Financial investment is the commitment of funds for a future return,
thus investment may be understood as an activity that commits funds in any

1
financial or physical form in the presence of an expectation of receiving
additional return in future. In the present context of portfolio management, the
investment is considered to be financial investment, which imply employment
of funds with the objective of realizing additional income or growth in value of
investment at a future date. Investing encompasses very conservative position as
well as speculation the field of investment involves the study of investment
process. Investment is concerned with the management of an investors’ wealth
which is the sum of current income and the present value of all future incomes.
In this text investment refers to financial assets. Financial investments are
commitments of funds to derive income in form of interest, dividend premium,
pension benefits or appreciation in the value of initial investment. Hence the
purchase of shares, debentures post office savings certificates and insurance
policies all are financial investments. Such investment generates financial assets.
These activities are undertaken by any one who desires a return, and is willing to
accept the risk from the financial instruments.

INVESTMENT VERSES SPECULATION:

Often investment is understood as a synonym of speculation. Investment

and speculation are some what different and yet similar because speculation
requires an investment and investment are at lest some what speculative.
Probably the best way to make a distinction between investment and speculation
is by considering the role of expectation. Investments are usually made with the
expectation that a certain stream of income or a certain price that has existed
will not change in the future. Where as speculation are usually based on the
expectation that some change will occur in future, there by resulting a return.

Thus an expected change is the basis for speculation but not for
investment. An investment also can be distinguished from speculation by the

2
time horizon of the investor and often by the risk return characteristic of
investment. A true investor is interested in a good and consistent rate of return
for a long period of time. In contrast, the speculator seeks opportunities
promising very large return earned within a short period of time due to changing
environment. Speculation involves a higher level of risk and a more uncertain
expectation of returns, which is not necessarily the case with investment.

Basis Investment Speculation

Type of contract Creditor Ownership

Basis of acquisition Usually by outright purchase Often- on-margin
Length of commitment Comparatively long term For a short time only
Source of income Earnings of enterprise Change in market price
Quantity of risk Small Large
Stability of income Very stable Uncertain and
erratic

The identification of these distinctions of these distinctions helps to

define the role of the investor and the speculator in the market. The investor can
be said to be interested in a good rate of return of a consistent basis over a
relatively longer duration. For this purpose the investor computes the real worth
of the security before investing in it. The speculator seeks very large returns
from the market quickly. For a speculator, market expectations and price
movements are the main factors influencing a buy or sell decision. Speculation,
thus, is more risky than investment.

3
 In any stock exchange, there are two main categories of speculators
called the bulls and bears. A bull buys shares in the expectation of selling them
at a higher price. When there is a bullish tendency in the market, share prices
tend to go up since the demand for the shares is high. A bear sells shares in the
expectation of a fall in price with the intention of buying the shares at a lower
price at a future date. These bearish tendencies result in a fall in the price of
shares.

A share market needs both investment and speculative activities.

Speculative activity adds to the market liquidity. A wider distribution of
shareholders makes it necessary for a market to exist.

INVESTMENT PROCESS

An organized view of the investment process involves analyzing the

basic nature of investment decisions and organizing the activities in the decision
process.

Investment process is governed by the two important facets of

investment they are risk and return. Therefore, we first consider these two basic
parameters that are of critical importance to all investors and the trade off that
exists between expected return and risk.

Given the foundation for making investment decisions the trade off
between expected return and risk- we next consider the decision process in
investments as it is typically practiced today. Although numerous separate
decisions must be made, for organizational purposes, this decision process has
traditionally been divided into a two step process: security analysis and portfolio
management. Security analysis involves the valuation of securities, whereas
4
portfolio management involves the management of an investor’s investment
selections as a portfolio (package of assets), with its own unique characteristics.

Security Analysis

Traditional investment analysis, when applied to securities, emphasizes

the projection of prices and dividends. That is, the potential price of a firm’s
common stock and the future dividend stream are forecasted, then discounted
back to the present. This intrinsic value is then compared with the security’s
current market price. If the current market price is below the intrinsic value, a
purchase is recommended, and if vice versa is the case sale is recommended.

Although modern security analysis is deeply rooted in the fundamental

concepts just outlined, the emphasis has shifted. The more modern approach to
common stock analysis emphasizes return and risk estimates rather than mere
price and dividend estimates.

Portfolio Management

Portfolios are combinations of assets. In this text, portfolios consist of

collections of securities. Traditional portfolio planning emphasizes on the
character and the risk bearing capacity of the investor. For example, a young,
aggressive, single adult would be advised to buy stocks in newer, dynamic,
rapidly growing firms. A retired widow would be advised to purchase stocks and
bonds in old-line, established, stable firms, such as utilities.

Modern portfolio theory suggests that the traditional approach to

portfolio analysis, selection, and management may yield less than optimum
results. Hence a more scientific approach is needed, based on estimates of risk

5
and return of the portfolio and the attitudes of the investor toward a risk-return
trade-off stemming from the analysis of the individual securities.

Characteristics of Investment

The characteristics of investment can be understood in terms of as

- return,
- risk,
- safety,
- liquidity etc.

Return: All investments are characterized by the expectation of a return. In fact,

investments are made with the primary objective of deriving return. The
expectation of a return may be from income (yield) as well as through capital
appreciation. Capital appreciation is the difference between the sale price and
the purchase price. The expectation of return from an investment depends upon
the nature of investment, maturity period, market demand and so on.

Risk: Risk is inherent in any investment. Risk may relate to loss of capital,
delay in repayment of capital, nonpayment of return or variability of returns.
The risk of an investment is determined by the investments, maturity period,
repayment capacity, nature of return commitment and so on.

Risk and expected return of an investment are related. Theoretically, the

higher the risk, higher is the expected returned. The higher return is a
compensation expected by investors for their willingness to bear the higher risk.

Safety: The safety of investment is identified with the certainty of return of

capital without loss of time or money. Safety is another feature that an investor
6
desires from investments. Every investor expects to get back the initial capital
on maturity without loss and without delay.

Liquidity: An investment that is easily saleable without loss of money or time is

said to be liquid. A well developed secondary market for security increase the
liquidity of the investment. An investor tends to prefer maximization of
expected return, minimization of risk, safety of funds and liquidity of
investment.

Investment categories:

Investment generally involves commitment of funds in two types of assets:

-Real assets
- Financial assets

Real assets: Real assets are tangible material things like building, automobiles,
land, gold etc.

Financial assets: Financial assets are piece of paper representing an indirect

claim to real assets held by some one else. These pieces of paper represent debt
or equity commitment in the form of IOUs or stock certificates. Investments in
financial assets consist of –
- Securitiesed (i.e. security forms of) investment
- Non-securities investment

The term ‘securities’ used in the broadest sense, consists of those papers
which are quoted and are transferable. Under section 2 (h) of the Securities
Contract (Regulation) Act, 1956 (SCRA) ‘securities’ include:

7
 i) Shares., scrip’s, stocks, bonds, debentures, debenture stock or
other marketable securities of a like nature in or of any incorporated company or
other body corporate.
ii) Government securities.
iii) Such other instruments as may be declared by the central
Government as securities, and,
iv) Rights of interests in securities.

Therefore, in the above context, security forms of investments include

Equity shares, preference shares, debentures, government bonds, Units of UTI
and other Mutual Funds, and equity shares and bonds of Public Sector
Undertakings (PSUs). Non-security forms of investments include all those
investments, which are not quoted in any stock market and are not freely
marketable. viz., bank deposits, corporate deposits, post office deposits,
National Savings and other small savings certificates and schemes, provident
funds, and insurance policies. Another popular investment in physical assets
such as Gold, Silver, Diamonds, Real estate, Antiques etc. Indian investors have
always considered the physical assets to be very attractive investments. There
are a large number of investment avenues for savers in India. Some of them are
marketable and liquid, while others are non marketable, Some of them are
highly risky while some others are almost risk less. The investor has to choose
proper avenues from among them, depending on his specific need, risk
preference, and return expectation. Investment avenues can be broadly
categorized under the following heads: -
1. Corporate securities
. Equity shares .Preference shares
. Debentures/Bonds . GDRs /ADRs
. Warrants . Derivatives

8
 2. Deposits in banks and non banking companies
3.Post office deposits and certificates
4.Life insurance policies
5.Provident fund schemes
6.Government and semi government securities
7.Mutual fund schemes
8.Real assets

CORPORATE SECURITIES

Joint stock companies in the private sector issue corporate securities.

These include equity shares, preference shares, and debentures. Equity shares
have variable dividend and hence belong to the high risk high return category;
preference shares and debentures have fixed returns with lower risk. The
classification of corporate securities that can be chosen as investment avenues
can be depicted as shown below.

Equity Shares-: By investing in shares, investors basically buy the ownership

right to that company. When the company makes profits, shareholders receive
their share of the profits in the form of dividends. In addition, when a company
performs well and the future expectation from the company is very high, the
price of the company’s shares goes up in the market. This allows shareholders to
sell shares at profit, leading to capital gains. Investors can invest in shares either
through primary market offerings or in the secondary market. Equity shares can
be classified in different ways but we will be using the terminology of Investors.
It should be noted that the line of demarcation between the classes are not clear
and such classification are not mutually exclusive.

9
Blue Chips (also called Stalwarts) : These are stocks of high quality,
financially strong companies which are usually the leaders in their industry.
They are stable and matured companies. They pay good dividends regularly and
the market price of the shares does not fluctuate widely. Examples are stocks of
Colgate, Pond’s Hindustan Lever, TELCO, Mafatlal Industries etc.

Growth Stocks: Growth stocks are companies whose earnings per share is
grows faster than the economy and at a rate higher than that of an average firm
in the same industry. Often, the earnings are ploughed back with a view to use
them for financing growth. They invest in research and development and
diversify with an aggressive marketing policy. They are evidenced by high and
strong EPS. Examples are ITC, Dr. Reddy’s Bajaj Auto, Sathyam Computers and
Infosys Technologies ect.. The high growth stocks are often called “
GLAMOUR STOCK’ or HIGH FLYERS’.

Income Stocks: A company that pays a large dividend relative to the market
price is called an income stock. They are also called defensive stocks. Drug,
food and public utility industry shares are regarded as income stocks. Prices of
income stocks are not as volatile as growth stocks.

Cyclical Stocks: Cyclical stocks are companies whose earnings fluctuate with
the business cycle. Cyclical stocks generally belong to infrastructure or capital
goods industries such as general engineering, auto, cement, paper, construction
etc. Their share prices also rise and fall in tandem with the trade cycles.

Discount Stocks: Discount stocks are those that are quoted or valued below
their face values. These are the shares of sick units.

10
Under Valued Stock: Under valued shares are those, which have all the
potential to become growth stocks, have very good fundamentals and good
future, but somehow the market is yet to price the shares correctly.

Turn Around Stocks: Turn around stocks are those that are not really doing
well in the sense that the market price is well below the intrinsic value mainly
because the company is going through a bad patch but is on the way to recovery
with signs of turning around the corner in the neat future. Examples- EID –
Parry in 80’s, Tata Tea (Tata Finlay), SPIC, Mukand Iron and steel etc.

Preference Shares: Preference shares refer to a form of shares that lie in

between pure equity and debt. They have the characteristic of ownership rights
while retaining the privilege of a consistent return on investment. The claims of
these holders carry higher priority than that of ordinary shareholders but lower
than that of debt holders. These are issued to the general public only after a
public issue of ordinary shares.

Debentures and Bonds: These are essentially long-term debt instruments.

Many types of debentures and bonds have been structured to suit investors with
different time needs. Though having a higher risk as compared to bank fixed
deposits, bonds, and debentures do offer higher returns. Debenture investment
requires scanning the market and choosing specific securities that will cater to
the investment objectives of the investors.

Depository Receipts (GDRs/ADRs): Global Depositary Receipts are

instruments in the form of a depositary receipt or certificate created by the
overseas depositary bank outside India and issued to non-resident investors
against ordinary shares or Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) of an

11
issuing company. A GDR issued in America is an American Depositary Receipt
(ADR). Among the Indian companies, Reliance Industries Limited was the first
company to raise funds through a GDR issue. Besides GDRs, ADRs are also
popular in the capital market. As investors seek to diversify their equity
holdings, the option of ADRs and GDRs are very lucrative. While investing in
such securities, investors have to identify the capitalization and risk
characteristics of the instrument and the company’s performance in its home
country (underlying asset).

Warrants: A warrant is a certificate giving its holder the right to purchase

securities at a stipulated price within a specified time limit or perpetually.
Sometimes a warrant is offered with debt securities as an inducement to buy the
shares at a latter date. The warrant acts as a value addition because the holder of
the warrant has the right but not the obligation of investing in the equity at the
indicated rate. It can be defined as a long-term call option issued by a company
on its shares.

A warrant holder is not entitled to any dividends; neither does he have a

voting right. But the exercise price of a warrant gets adjusted for the stock
dividends or stock splits. On the expiry date, the holder exercises an option to
buy the shares at the predetermined price. This enables the investor to decide
whether or not to buy the shares or liquidate the debt from the company. If the
market price is higher than the exercise price, it will be profitable for the
investor to exercise the warrant. On the other hand, if the market price falls
below the exercise price, the warrant holder would prefer to liquidate the debt of
the firm.

12
Derivatives: The introduction of derivative products has been one of the most
significant developments in the Indian capital market. Derivatives are helpful
risk-management tools that an investor has to look at for reducing the risk
inherent in as investment portfolio. The first derivative product that has been
offered in the Indian market is the index future. Besides index futures, other
derivative instruments such as index options, stock options, have been
introduced in the market. Stock futures are traded in the market regularly and in
terms of turnover, have exceeded that of other derivative instruments. The
liquidity in the futures market is concentrated in very few shares. Theoretically
the difference between the futures and spot price should reflect the cost of
carrying the position to the future of essentially the interest. Therefore, when
futures are trading at a premium, it is and indication that participants are bullish
of the underlying security and vice versa. Derivative trading is a speculative
activity. However, investors have to utilize the derivative market since the
opportunity of reducing the risk in price movements is possible through
investments in derivative products.

DEPOSITS:

Among non-corporate investments, the most popular are deposits

with banks such as savings accounts and fixed deposits. Savings deposits carry
low interest rates whereas fixed deposits carry higher interest rates, varying with
the period of maturity, Interest is payable quarterly or half-yearly or annually.
Fixed deposits may also be recurring deposits wherein savings are deposited at
regular intervals. Some banks have reinvestment plans whereby savings are re-
deposited at regular intervals or reinvested as the interest gets accrued. The
principal and accumulated interests in such investment plans are paid on
maturity.

13
Savings Bank Account with Commercial Banks:

A safe, liquid, and convenient investment option, a savings bank

account is an ideal investment avenue for setting aside funds for emergencies
or unexpected expenses. Investors may prefer to keep an average balance
equal to three months of their living expenses. A bank fixed deposit is
recommended for those looking for preservation of capital along with current
income in the short term. However, over the long-term the returns may not
keep pace with inflation.

Company Fixed Deposits:

Many companies have come up with fixed deposit schemes to

mobilize money for their needs. The company fixed deposit market is a risky
market and ought to be looked at with caution. RBI has issued various
regulations to monitor the company fixed deposit market. However, credit
rating services are available to rate the risk of company fixed deposit
schemes.

The maturity period varies from three to five years. Fixed deposits in
companies have a high risk since they are unsecured, but they promise higher
returns than bank deposits.

Fixed deposit in non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) is another

investment avenue open to savers. NBFCs include leasing companies, hire
purchase companies, investment companies, chit funds, and so on. Deposits
in NBFCs carry higher returns with higher risk compared to bank deposits.

14
Post Office Deposits and Certificates:

The investment avenues provided by post offices are non-marketable.

However, most of the savings schemes in post offices enjoy tax concessions.
Post offices accept savings deposits as well as fixed deposits from the public.
There is also a recurring deposit scheme that is an instrument of regular
monthly savings.

National Savings Certificates (NSC) is also marketed by post office to

investors. The interest on the amount invested is compounded half-yearly and
is payable along with the principal at the time of maturity, which is six years
from the date of issue.

There are a variety of post office savings certificates that cater to specific
savings and investment requirements of investors and is a risk free, high
yielding investment opportunity. Interest on these instruments is exempt from
incometax. Some of these deposits are also exempt from wealth tax.

Life Insurance Policies:

Insurance companies offer many investment schemes to investors. These

schemes promote savings and additionally provide insurance cover. LIC is
the largest life insurance company in India. Some of its schemes include life
policies, convertible whole life assurance policies, endowment assurance
policies, Jeevan Saathi, Money Back Plan, Jeevan Dhara, and Marriage
Endowment Plan. Insurance policies, while catering to the risk compensation
to be faced in the future by investors, also have the advantage of earning a
reasonable interest on their investment insurance premiums. Life insurance
policies are also eligible for exemption from income tax.

15
Provident Fund Scheme:

Provident fund schemes are deposit schemes, applicable to employees in the

public and private sectors. There are three kinds of provident funds applicable to
different sectors of employment, namely, Statutory Provident Fund, Recognised
Provident Fund, and Unrecognised Provident Fund. In addition to these, there is
a voluntary provident fund scheme that is open to any investor, employed or not.
This is known as the Public Provident Fund (PPF). Any member of the public
can join the PPF, which is operated by the State Bank of India

Equity Linked Savings Schemes (ELSSs):

Investing in ELSSs gets investors a tax rebate of the amount invested.

ELSSs are basically growth mutual funds with a lock-in period of three years.
ELSSs have a risk higher than PPF and NSCs, but have the potential of giving
higher returns.

Pension Plan:

Certain notified retirement/pension funds entitle investors to a tax rebate.

UTI, LIC, and ICICI are some financial institutions that offer retirement plans to
investors.

Government and Semi-Government Securities:

Government and semi-government bodies such as the public sector

undertakings borrow money from the public through the issue of government
securities and public sector bonds. These are less risky avenues of investment
because of the credibility of the government and government undertakings. The
government issues securities in the money market and in the capital market.

16
Money market instruments are traded in the Wholesale Debt Market (WDM)
trades and retail segments. Instruments traded in the money market are short-
term instruments such as treasury bills and repos. The government also
introduced the pricatisation programme in many corporate enterprises and these
securities are traded in the secondary market. These are the semi-government
securities. PSU stocks have performed well during the years 2003-04 in the
capital market.

Mutual Fund Schemes:

The Unit Trust of India is the first mutual fund in the country. A number
of commercial banks and financial institutions have also set up mutual funds.
Mutual funds have been set up in the private sector also. These mutual funds
offer various investment schemes to investors. The number of mutual funds that
have cropped up in recent years is quite large and though, on an average, the
mutual fund industry has not been showing good returns, select funds have
performed consistently, assuring the investor better returns and lower risk
options.

REAL ASSETS

Investments in real assets are also made when the expected returns are
very attractive. Real estate, gold, silver, currency, and other investments such as
art are also treated as investments since the expectation from holding of such
assets is associated with higher returns.

Real Estate: Buying property is an equally strenuous investment decision. Real

estate investment is often linked with the future development plans of the
location. It is important to check the value while deciding to purchase a

17
movable/immovable property other than buildings. Besides making a personal
assessment from the market, the assistance of government-approved valuers may
also be sought. A valuation report indication the value of the each of the major
assets and also the basis and manner of valuation can be obtained from an
approved valuer against the payment of a fee. In case of a plantation, a valuation
report may also be obtained from recognized private valuers.

Bullion Investment: The bullion market offers investment opportunity in the

form of gold, silver, and other metals. Specific categories of metals are traded in
the metals exchange. The bullion market presents an opportunity for an investor
by offering returns and end value in future. It has been observed that on several
occasions, when the stock market failed, the gold market provided a return on
investments. The changing pattern of prices in the bullion market also makes
this market risky for investors. Gold and Silver prices are not consistent and
keep changing according to the changing local/global demands in the market.
The fluctuation prices, however, have been compensated by real returns for
many investors who have followed a buy and hold strategy in the bullion
market.

Return and Risk – The Basis of Investment Decisions :

An organized view of the investment process involves analyzing the

basic nature of investment decisions and organizing the activities in the decision
process. Common stocks have produced, on average, significantly larger returns
over the years than savings accounts or bonds. Should not all investors invest in
common stocks and realize these larger returns? The answer to this question is
to pursue higher returns investors must assume larger risks. Underlying all
investment decisions is the trade off between expected return and risk.
Therefore, we first consider these two basic parameters that are of critical
18
importance to all investors and the trade- off that exists between expected return
and risk.

Given the foundation for making investment decisions the trade off
between expected return and risk – we next consider the decision process in
investments as it is typically practiced today. Although numerous separate
decisions must be made, for organizational purposes, this decision process has
traditionally been divided into a two step process: security analysis and portfolio
management. Security analysis involves the valuation of securities, whereas
portfolio management involves the management of an investor’s investment
selections as a portfolio (package of assets), with its own unique characteristics.

Return: Why invest? Stated in simplest terms, investors wish to

earn a return on their money. Cash has an opportunity cost: By holding cash,
you forego the opportunity to earn a return on that cash. Furthermore, in an
inflationary environment, the purchasing power of cash diminishes, with high
rates of inflation bringing a relatively rapid decline in purchasing power. In
investments it is critical to distinguish between an expected return (the
anticipated return for some future period) and a realized return (the actual return
over some past period). Investors invest for the future for the returns they expect
to earn but when the investing period is over, they are left with their realized
returns. What investors actually earn from their holdings may turn out to be
more or less than what they expected to earn when they initiated the investment.
This point is the essence of the investments process; Investors must always
consider the risk involved in investing.

Risk: Risk is explained theoretically as the fluctuation in returns

from a security. A security that yields consistent returns over a period of time is

19
termed as “ risk less security “ or “ risk free security “. Risk is inherent in all
walks of life. An investor cannot foresee the future definitely; hence, risk will
always exist for an investor. Risk is in fact the watchword for all investors who
enter capital markets. Investment risk can be an extraordinary stress for many
investors. When the secondary market does not respond to rational expectations,
the risk component of such markets are relatively high and most investors fail to
recognize the real risk involved in the investment process. Risk aversion is the
criteria commonly associated with many small investors in the secondary
market. Many small investors look upon the market for a definite return and
when their expectations are not met, the effect on the small investors’ morale is
negative. Hence these investors prefer to lock up their funds in securities that
would rather give them back their investment with small returns than those
securities that yield high returns on an average but are subject to wild
fluctuations.

There are different types and therefore different definition of risk.

Risk is defined as the uncertainty about the actual return that will earn on an
investment. When one invest, expects some particular return, but there is a risk
that he ends up with a different return when he terminates the investment. The
more the difference between the expected and the actual the more is the risk. It
is not sensible to talk about the investment returns with out talking about the
risk, because the investment decision involves a trade-off between the two,
return and risk.

Factors influence risk: What makes financial assets risky. Traditionally,

investors have talked about several factors causing risk such as business failure,
market fluctuations, change in the interest rate inflation in the economy,
fluctuations in exchange rates changes in the political situation etc. Based on
the factors affecting the risk the risk can be understood in following manners-
20
Interest rate r isk: The variability in a security return resulting from changes in
the level of interest rates is referred to as interest rate risk. Such changes
generally affect securities inversely, that is other things being equal, security
price move inversely to interest rate.

Market risk: The variability in returns resulting from fluctuations in overall

market that is, the agree get stock market is referred to as market risk. Market
risk includes a wide range of factors exogenous to securities them selves, like
recession, wars, structural changes in the economy, and changes in consumer
preference. The risk of going down with the market movement is known as
market risk.

Inflation risk: Inflation in the economy also influences the risk inherent in
investment. It may also result in the return from investment not matching the
rate of increase in general price level (inflation). The change in the inflation rate
also changes the consumption pattern and hence investment return carries an
additional risk. This risk is related to interest rate risk, since interest rate
generally rise as inflation increases, because lenders demands additional
inflation premium to compensate for the loss of purchasing power.

Business risk: The changes that take place in an industry and the environment
causes risk for the company in earning the operational revenue creates business
risk. For example the traditional telephone industry faces major changes today in
the rapidly changing telecommunication industry and the mobile phones. When
a company fails to earn through its operations due to changes in the business
situations leading to erosion of capital, there by faces the business risk.

21
Financial r isk: The use of debt financing by the company to finance a larger
proportion of assets causes larger variability in returns to the investors in the
faces of different business situation. During prosperity the investors get higher
return than the average return the company earns, but during distress investors
faces possibility of vary low return or in the worst case erosion of capital which
causes the financial risk. The larger the proportion of assets finance by debt (as
opposed to equity) the larger the variability of returns thus lager the financial
risk.

Liquidity risk: An investment that can be bought or sold quickly without

significant price concession is considered to be liquid. The more uncertainty
about the time element and the price concession the greater the liquidity risk.
The liquidity risk is the risk associated with the particular secondary market in
which a security trades.

Exchange rate risk: The change in the exchange rate causes a change in the value
of foreign holdings, foreign trade, and the profitability of the firms, there by
returns to the investors. The exchange rate risk is applicable mainly to the
companies who operate oversees. The exchange rate risk is nothing but the
variability in the return on security caused by currencies fluctuation.

Political risk: Political risk also referred, as country risk is the risk caused due
to change in government policies that affects business prospects there by return
to the investors. Policy changes in the tax structure, concession and levy of duty
to products, relaxation or tightening of foreign trade relations etc. carry a risk
component that changes the return pattern of the business.

22
TYPES OF RISK

Thus far, our discussion has concerned the total risk of an asset, which is
one important consideration in investment analysis. However modern
investment analysis categorizes the traditional sources of risk identified
previously as causing variability in returns into two general types: those that are
pervasive in nature, such as market risk or interest rate risk, and those that are
specific to a particular security issue, such as business or financial risk.
Therefore, we must consider these two categories of total risk. The following
discussion introduces these terms. Dividing total risk in to its two components, a
general (market) component and a specific (issue ) component, we have
systematic risk and unsystematic risk which are additive:
Total risk = general risk + specific risk
= market risk + issuer risk
= systematic risk + non systematic risk

Systematic risk: Variability in a securities total return that is directly associated

with overall moment in the general market or economy is called as systematic
risk. This risk cannot be avoided or eliminated by diversifying the investment.
Normally diversification eliminates a part of the total risk the left over after
diversification is the non-diversifiable portion of the total risk or market risk.
Virtually all securities have some systematic risk because systematic risk
directly encompasses the interest rate, market and inflation risk. The investor
cannot escape this part of the risk, because no matter how well he or she
diversifies, the risk of the overall market cannot be avoided. If the stock market
declines sharply, most stock will be adversely affected, if it rises strongly, most
stocks will appreciate in value. Clearly mark risk is critical to all investors.

23
Non-systematic risk: Variability in a security total return not related to overall
market variability is called un systematic (non market) risk. This risk is unique
to a particular security and is associated with such factors as business, and
financial risk, as well as liquidity risk. Although all securities tend to have some
nonsystematic risk, it is generally connected with common stocks.

MEASURING RETURNS:

Return is the out come of an investment. Measurement of return occupies

a strategic importance in investment analysis as the investment is undertaken
with a view to get returns in future

Total Return

A correct returns measure must incorporate the two components of

return, yield and price changes. Returns across time or from different securities
can be measured and compared using the total return concept. Formally, the total
return (TR) for a given holding period is a decimal (or percentage) number
relating all the cash flows received by an investor during any desired time period
to the purchase price of the asset. Total return is defined as

TR = any cash payments received + Price changes over

the period
Price at which the asset is purchased

All the items are measured in rupees. The price change over the period,
defined as the difference between the beginning (or purchase) price and the
ending (or sale) price, can be either positive (sales price exceeds purchase price),
negative (purchase price exceeds sales price), or zero. The cash payments can be
24
either positive or zero. Netting the two items in the numerator together and
dividing by the purchase price results in a decimal return figure that can easily
be converted into percentage form. Note that in using the TR, the two
components of return, yield and price change have been measured.

The general equation for calculating TR is

TR = CFt + (PE – PB) = CFt + PC

PB PB

Where
CFt = Cash flows during the measurement period
PE = price at the end of the period t or sale price
PB = purchase price of the asset or price at the beginning of the
period
PC = change in price during the period, or PE minus PB

The cash flows for a bond comes from the interest payments received,
and that for a stock comes for the dividends received. For some assets, such as
warrant or a stock that pays no dividends, there is only a price change. Although
one year is often used for convenience, the TR calculation can be applied to
periods of any length.

In summary, the total return concept is valuable as a measure of return

because it is all-inclusive measuring the total return per rupees of original
investment. Total return is the basic measure of the actual return earned by
investors on any financial assets for any specific period of time. It facilitates the
comparison of asset returns over a specified period whether the comparison is of

25
different assets, such as stocks versus bonds, or of different securities have to be
sold within the same type, such as several common socks.

RETURN RELATIVE:

It is often necessary to measure returns on a slightly different basis than

TRs. This is particularly true when calculating a geometric mean because
negative returns cannot be used in the calculation. The return relative (RR)
solves this problem by adding 1.0 to the total return.
 RR = TR in decimal form +1.0
 TR in decimal form = RR – 1.0

Although return relatives may be less than 1.0, they will be

greater than zero, thereby eliminating negative numbers.

Relative Return = RR = CFt + PE

PB

SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR RETURNS:

The total return, return relative, are useful measures or return for a
specified period of time. Also needed in investment analysis are statistics to
describe a series of returns. Two such measures used with returns data are
described below:

Arithmetic Mean The best-known statistics to most people is the arithmetic

mean. It is customarily designated by the symbol , of a set of values is
calculated as:

26
 X
X=
n
Or the sum of each of the values being considered divided by the total
number of values n.

Geometric Mean The arithmetic mean return is an appropriate measure of the

central tendency of a distribution consisting of returns calculated for a particular
time period, such as 10 years. However, when percentage changes in value over
time are involved as a result of compounding, the arithmetic mean of these
changes can be misleading. A different mean, the geometric mean, is needed to
describe accurately the “true” average rate of return over multiple periods.

Calculation of the Arithmetic and Geometric mean for the years 1996-2005 for
the Sensex Stock Composite Index

Year Sensex TRs (%) Sensex Return Relative

1996 -3.14 0.9687

1997 30.00 1.30001
1998 7.43 1.30001
1999 9.94 1.09942
2000 1.29 1.01286
2001 37.11 1.37113
2002 22.68 1.22683
2003 33.10 1.33101
2004 28.34 1.28338
2005 20.88 1.2088

27
 Arithmetic mean = [-3.14 + 30.00 +…. + 20.88]/10
= 18.76%
Geometric mean = [(0.9687) (1.30001)(1.30001)(1.09942)…
(1.2088)] 1/10 - 1
= 1.18 - 1
= 0.18, or 18%

The geometric mean returns measure the compound rate of growth over
time. It is often used in investments and finance to reflect the steady growth rate
of invested funds over some past period; that is, the uniform rate at which
money actually grew over time per period. Therefore, it allows measuring the
realized change in wealth over multiple periods. It is calculated as follows:

G = [(1+TR1)(1+TR2)…. (1+TRn)] 1/n – 1

Where TR is a series of total returns in decimal form.

The geometric mean will always be less than the arithmetic mean unless
the values being considered are identical. The spread between the two depends
on the dispersion of the distribution; the greater the dispersion, the greater the
spread between the two means.

ARITHMETIC MEAN VERSUS GEOMETRIC MEAN:

Arithmetic mean is a better measure of average performance over single

periods. It is the best estimate of the expected return for next period.

28
 Geometric mean is a better measure of the change in wealth over the
past. It is a backward-looking concept, measuring the realized compound rate of
return at which money grew over a specific period.

MEASURING RISK:

Risk is often associated with the dispersion in the likely outcomes.

Dispersion refers to variability. It is assumed to arise out of variability, which is
consistent with our definition of risk as the chance that the actual outcome of an
investment will differ from the expected outcome. If an assets’ return has no
variability, in effect it has no risk. Thus a one-year treasury bill purchased to
yield 10 percent and held to maturity will, in fact, yield (a nominal) 10 percent.
No other outcome is possible, barring default by the government, which is not
considered a reasonable possibility.

STANDARD DEVIATION:

The risk can be measured with an absolute measure of dispersion, or

variability. The most commonly used measure of dispersion over some period of
years is the standard deviation, which measures the deviation of each
observation from the arithmetic mean of the observations and is a reliable
measure of variability, because all the information in a sample is used.

The standard deviation is a measure of the total risk of an asset or a

portfolio. It captures the total variability in the assets or portfolio’s return,
whatever the source(s) of that variability. The standard deviation is the square
root of variance, which can be calculated as follows:

n
29
 2
 (X-X)
i=1

2 =
n -1

Where

2 = the variance of a set of values

X = each value in the set
X = the mean of the observations
n = the number of returns in the sample
 = Standard deviation
 = (Variance) 1/2

In summary, the standard deviation of return measures the total risk of

one security or the total risk of a portfolio of securities. The historical standard
deviation can be calculated for individual securities or portfolio of securities
using TRs for some specified period of time. This ex post value is useful in
evaluating the total risk for a particular historical period and in estimating the
total risk that is expected to prevail over some future period.

COMMON STOCK VALUATION:

The use of present-value theory by bond and preferred-stock investors is

well established. The valuation task is relatively straightforward because
benefits are generally constant and reasonably certain. One deals with
perpetuities, or infinite life securities with constant dividend receipts, with
straight preferred stock. Bonds represent constant income flows with a finite,
measurable life.
30
 Common-stock valuation is different because earnings and dividend
streams are uncertain as to the timing of receipt and the amount of the dividend.
The value of a common stock at any moment in time can be thought of as the
discounted value of a series of uncertain future dividends that may grow or
decline at varying rates over time. The more theoretical present-value approach
to common-stock valuation will be compared with the more traditional and
pragmatic capitalization or multiplier approach in the next several sections.

PRESENT-VALUE APPROACH:

One year Holding Period:

It is easiest to start with common-stock valuation where the expected

holding period is one year. The benefits any investor receives from holding a
common stock consists of dividends plus any change in price during the holding
period. Suppose that we buy one share of the X Co. at the beginning of the year
for Rs.25. We hold the stock for one year. One Rupees in dividends is collected
at year-end, and the share is sold for Rs.26.50. The rate of return achieved is the
composite of dividend yield and change in price (capital gains yield). Thus we
get
D Rs.1
Dividend yield = = = .04
P Rs.25

Rs.26.50 - Rs.25.00
Capital gains yield = = .06
Rs.25

31
 The total rate of return achieved is .04 + .06 = .10, or 10 percent.
The same notion in terms of present values is thus:

D1 P1
P0 = +
1+r 1+r

Where

D1 = dividend to be received at the end of year 1

r = investor’s required rate of return or discount rate
P1 = selling price at the end of year 1
P0 = selling price today

Should a rate of return of 15 percent have been required, the purchase

price would have been too high at Rs.25. (The Rs.1 dividend is assumed fixed,
and the selling price of Rs.26.50 remains constant). To achieve a 15 percent
return, the value of the stock at the beginning of the year would have had to be

Rs.1.00 Rs.26.50
P0 = +
1 + .15 1 + .15

= Rs.23.91
An alternative approach would be to ask the question; at what price must
we be able to sell the stock at the end of one year (if the purchase price is Rs.25
and the dividend is Rs.1) in order to attain a rate of return of 15 percent?

32
 Rs.1.00 P1
Rs.25 = +
1 + .15 1 + .15

Rs.25 = Rs.0.87 + Rs.0.87 P1

Rs.24.13 = Rs.0.87P1

Rs.27.74 = P1 (selling price)

Multiple-Year Holding Period:

Consider holding a share of the X Co. for five years. In most cases the
dividend will grow from year to year. To look at some results, let us stipulate the
following:
g = annual expected growth in earnings, dividends and price = 6 %
e0 = most recent earnings per share = Rs.1.89
d/e = dividend payout (%) = 50 %
r = required rate of return = 10 %
P = price per share
P/E = price earnings ratio = 12.5
N = holding period in years = 5

N [(e0)(d/e)] (1 + g) n (P/E) [(e0)(1 + g) N+1]

P= ( (1 + r) n ) +( (1 + r)N )
n=1

33
 This imposing formula says, “Sum the present value of all dividends to
be received over the holding period, and add this to the present value of the
selling price of the stock at the end of the holding period to arrive at the present
value of the stock.”

Let us write out the string of appropriate numbers. Since the current
earnings per share e0 are Rs.1.89 and the dividend payout d/e is 50 percent, the
most recent dividend per share is e0 time’s d/e or Rs.1.89 times 50 percent, or
Rs. 945. This was stipulated in the beginning of the problem. After one year, the
1 .
dividend is expected to be Rs..943 times (1 + g) So the first year’s dividend
will be Rs.1. The process is repeated for years 1 through 5 as follows:

Dividend Dividend Dividend Dividend Dividend

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Rs.0.943 (1.06) Rs.0.943 (1.06) 2 Rs.9.43 (1.06) 3 Rs.0.943 (1.06) 4 Rs.0.943(1.06)5

Rs.1.00 Rs.1.06 Rs.1.12 Rs.1.19 Rs.1.26

The next step is to discount each dividend at the required rate of return of
10 percent. Thus:

Rs.1.00 Rs.1.06 Rs.1.12 Rs.1.19 Rs.1.26

+ + + +
(1.10) 1 (1.10) 2 (1.10) 3 (1.10) 4 (1.10) 5

34
 The string of fractions reduces to

Rs.1.00 Rs.1.06 Rs.1.12 Rs.1.19 Rs.1.26

+ + + +
1.10 1.21 1.333 1.464 1.611

Thus the present value of the stream of dividends is equal to Rs.4.225

over the five-year period if the required rate of return is 10 percent and the
dividends grow at a rate of 6 percent per year. Although the number of Rupees of
dividends is Rs.5.63, their present value is only Rs.4.225 as indicated, since the
dividends grow at only 6 percent and the investor requires a 10 percent rate of
return.

The price of the stock at the end of the holding period (year 5) is the last
part of our equation. Let us assume that the current price of the stock is Rs.25,
forecasted earnings per share e1 are Rs.2.00 [Rs.1.89 (1.06)], and the price-
earnings ratio (P/E) is 12.5. Holding P/E at 12.5, the earnings, expected to grow
at 6 percent per year, should amount to Rs.2.68 [Rs.1.89 (1.06) 6] for year
6.Thus:

Selling price at the end of year 5 = (1.25)[(Rs.1.89)(1.06) 6]

= Rs.33.45

The present value of the selling price is Rs.33.45/(1.10), or Rs.20.78.

Adding the present value of the stream of dividends to the present value of the
expected selling price of the stock yields Rs.4.22 + Rs.20.78, or Rs.25.00

Notice that throughout this explanation, the analyst or investor estimates

the variables g, d/e, and P/E. The current price of the stock (P) and current
earnings (e0) are observed.
35
Mc DONALD’S STOCK. Let us estimate the return on McDonald’s stock as
an investment to be held for five years. McDonald’s operates the largest fast-
food restaurant system in the country. Assume that its common stock can be
purchased at the beginning of 1985 for Rs.52. A thoroughgoing analysis of
expected future earnings, dividends, and price-earnings ratio (P/E) has provided
the following predictions:

Year Earnings per share Dividends per share

2001 Rs.5.05 Rs.0.82

2002 5.80 0.95
2003 6.65 1.10
2004 7.85 1.25
2005 8.80 1.45

It is estimated that at the end of 2005 the stock will sell for twelve times
2005 earnings. Given the estimated earnings in 2005 of Rs.8.80, the forecast
selling price at the end of the fifth year is Rs.105 (Rs.8.80 X 12).

What rate of return would equate the flow of dividends and the terminal
price shown above back to the current price of Rs.52? Alternatively stated, what
yield or return is required on an investment of Rs?

In order that an investor may withdraw dividends each year as indicated

above and be able to remove a final balance of Rs.105 at the end of five years?
36
 In effect, we want the rate of return that will solve the following:
Rs.0.82 Rs0.95 Rs.1.10 Rs.1.25 Rs.1.45 Rs.105
Rs.52 = + + + + +
(1 + r) (1 + r) 2 (1 + r) 3 (1 + r) 4 (1 + r) 5 (1 + r)
6

Where r is the rate of return. Calculating the rate that will solve the
equation is a somewhat tedious task, requiring trial-and-error computation. Let
us turn the equation into columnar form and try a discount rate:

Year Receipt 17 % Present Present

Value factor Value

1 Rs.0.82 .854 Rs.0.70

2 Rs.0.95 .730 0.69
3 Rs.1.10 .624 0.69
4 Rs.1.25 .533 0.67
5 Rs.1.45 .456 0.66
6 Rs.105 .456 47.89
Rs.51.30

At 17 percent, this stream of receipts has a present value of Rs.51.30,

which is close to the market price of Rs.52. This suggests that the discount rate
is just slightly less than 17 percent. The investor must decide if 17 percent is a
satisfactory return, given the alternative investment opportunities and the
investor’s attitude toward risk in holding McDonald’s stock.

37
 What happened to earnings? We instinctively feel that earnings should
be worth something, whether they are paid out as dividends or not, and wonder
why they do not appear in the valuation equation. In fact, they do appear in the
equation but in the correct form. Earnings can be used for one of two purposes:
they can be paid out to stockholders in the form of dividends or they can be
reinvested the firm. If they are reinvested in the firm they should result in
increased future earnings and increased future dividends. To the extent earnings
at any time, say time t are paid out to stockholders, they are measured by the
term Dt and to the extent they are retained in the firm and used productively they
are reflected in future dividends and should result in future dividends being
larger than Dt .To discount the future earnings stream of a share of stock would
be double counting since we would count retained earnings both when they were
earned and when they, or the earnings from their reinvestment, were later paid to
stockholders.

Constant Growth:

The simplest extension of what we have been doing assumes that

dividends will grow at the same rate (g) into the indefinite future. Under this
assumption the value of a share of stock is
D (1+g) D (1+g) 2 D (1+g) 3 D (1+g) N
P= + + +…+ +…
(1+r) (1+r) 2 (1+r) 3 (1+r) N

D1
P=
r- g

38
 This model states that the price of a share of stock should be equal to
next year’s expected dividend divided by the difference between the appropriate
discount rate for the stock and its expected long-term growth rate. Alternatively,
this model can be stated in terms of the rate of return on a stock as

D1
r= +g
P

The constant growth model is often defended as the model that arises
from the assumption that the firm will maintain a stable dividend policy (keep
its retention rate constant) and earn a stable return on new equity investment
over time.

How might the single period model be used to select stocks? One way is
to predict next year’s dividends, the firm’s long-term growth rate, and the rate of
return stockholders require for holding the stock. The equation could then be
solved for the theoretical price of the stock that could be compared with its
present price. Stocks that have theoretical prices above their actual price are
candidates for purchase; those with theoretical prices below their actual price are
candidates for sale.

Another way to use the approach is to find the rate of return implicit in
the price at which the stock is now selling. Thos can be done by substituting the
current price, estimated dividend, and estimated growth rate into Equation 4.6
and solving for the discount rate that equates the present price with the expected
flow of future dividends. If this rate is higher than the rate of return considered
appropriate for the stock, given its risk, it is a candidate for purchase.

39
 It seems logical to assume that firms that have grown at a very high rate
will not continue to do so infinitely. Similarly, firms with very poor growth
might improve in the future. While a single growth rate can be found that will
produce the same value as a more complex pattern, it is so hard to estimate this
single number, and the resultant valuation is so sensitive to this number that
many analysts have been reluctant to use the constant growth model without
modification.

Two-Stage Growth:

The most logical further extension of the constant growth model is to

assume that a period of extraordinary growth (good or bad) will continue for a
certain number of years, after which growth will change to a level at which it is
expected to continue indefinitely. Firms typically go through life cycles; during
part of these cycles their growth is much faster than that of the economy as a
whole. Automobile manufacturers in the mid 1980s are examples.

A hypothetical firm is expected to grow at a 20 percent rate for ten years,

then to have its growth rate fall to 4 percent, the norm for the economy. The
value of the firm with its growth pattern is determined by the following
equation:
Present price = PV of dividends during above-normal growth period
+ Value of stock price at the end of above-normal growth period
discounted back to present

t
N D0 (1 + gs) DN+1
1
P0 =  +

40
 t=1 ( 1 + rs )t rs – gn ( 1 + r s )N

Where:
gs = above-normal growth rate
gn = normal growth rate
N = period of above-normal growth rate

Consider McDonald’s, whose previous dividend was Rs.0.71 (D 0 =

Rs.0.71), with the dividend expected to increase by 15 percent a year for ten
years and thereafter at 10 percent a year indefinitely. If a stockholder’s required
rate of return is 16 percent, the value of the stock will be as follows:

Calculating the value of a Two-stage Growth Stock

Assumptions:
a. Required rate of return = 16%
b. Growth rate is 15% for ten years 10% thereafter
(gs =15%, gn = 10%, and N=10)
c. Last year’s dividend was Rs.0.71 (d0 = Rs.0.71)

41
 Step 1. Find the present value of dividends during the rapid growth period
End of year Dividend
Rs. 0.71(1.15) t PVIF = 1/(1.16) t PV

1 Rs.0.82 0.862 Rs.0.71

2 0.95 0.743 0.71
3 1.10 0.640 0.70
4 1.25 0.552 0.69
5 1.45 0.476 0.69
6 1.66 0.410 0.68
7 1.90 0.354 0.67
8 2.18 0.305 0.66
9 2.51 0.263 0.66
10 2.88 0.226 0.65

PV of first ten year’s dividends = 10 d0 (1 + gs)t


t
t=1 ( 1 + rs )
= Rs.6.82

Step 2. Find the present value of the year 10 stock price.

a. Find the value of the stock at the end of year 10:


d11 Rs.2.88 (1.10)
P10 = = = Rs.52.80
rs - gn 0.06

42
 b. Discount P10 back to the present:

10
1
PV = P10 = Rs.52.80 (.226) = Rs.11.93
1 + rs

Step 3. Sum to find out the total value of the stock today:

P10 = Rs.6.82 + Rs.11.93 = Rs.18.75

THE CAPITALIZATION OR MULTIPLIER APPROACH:

Judging from current practice, the capitalization or multiplier approach

to valuation still holds the preeminent position. A survey of practicing analysts
indicated that 75 percent of them preferred simple multiplier techniques.
Present-value techniques were preferred by only about 6 percent. The
underlying reasons for ignoring present-value formulas seem to lie in (1) severe
earnings forecasting limitations, and (2) the influence of sharply increases
competition on short-range performance.

The multiplier is a shortcut computation to find the present value. The

analyst estimates earnings per share for the year ahead. He divides this figure
into the current market price of the stock, and the result is an earnings multiplier.

43
The terms multiplier and price earnings ratio (P/E) are used interchangeably.
Thus:

Earnings multiplier = P/E ratio = Current market price

Estimated earnings per share

The multiplier or P/E is primarily determined by the riskiness of the firm

and the growth rate in its earnings. High multipliers are associated with high
earnings growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average might sell in the range 9
to11 P/E. It represents a cross section of stocks with average risk and growth
prospects. McDonald’s may sell at a P/E of 12, because of earnings growth.
American Telephone and Telegraph Co. may sell at a P/E of 9, because of
average growth.

The analysts seek various rules of thumb for selecting an appropriate

price earnings ratio that can be applied to a company’s earnings to determine
value for its shares. The resulting price is compared with current market prices
to assess bargains or overpriced stocks.

The determination of the current P/E on a stock must be followed by a

standard of comparison, taken from the historical record of the stock in question.
The analyst may ascertain the median or mean P/E for a stock, as well as its
range over time. More weight can be given to the recent past. This provides
boundaries within which the P/E should fall and indicates whether the stock is
tending to sell at the upper limits of expectation or lower limits. Industry P/Es
provide some guidelines; however different companies in the same industry
frequently carry quite different P/Es.

44
STATISTICAL APPROACHES TO P/E:

Still another approach to valuation is to take the broad determinants of

common stock prices-earnings, growth, risk, time value of money, and dividend
policy- and to measure these and to weight hem together in some manner to
form an estimate of the P/E ratio. One way to do this is to use statistical analysis
to define the weights the market places on asset of determinants of common
stock prices.

From our earlier discussion of constant growth models, price to price-

earnings form model can easily be converted:

D
P= (And)
r-g

D/E
P/E =
r-g

The relationship that exists in the market at any point in time between
price or price-earnings ratios and a set of specified variables can be estimated
using regression analysis.

The usual technique of relating price or price earnings ratios to more

than one variable is directly analogous to this. Called multiple regression

45
analysis, it finds that linear combination of a set of variables that best explains
price earnings ratios.

One of the earliest attempts to use multiple regressions to explain price

earnings ratios, which received wide attention, was the Whitbeck-Kisor model to
measure the relationship of the P/E on a stock to dividend policy, growth and
risk.

The ability of cross sectional regressions actually to distinguish winners

from losers is questionable. As forecasting devices these models are plagued by
instability in the regression coefficients. The coefficients are extremely sample
sensitive that is, the results are partially dependent upon the sample selected
(time period and companies).

Review Quest ions:

1. Distinguish carefully between investing and speculating. Is it
possible to incorporate investment and speculation within the same
security? Explain.
2. Compare briefly the traditional and modern approaches to
security analysis, to portfolio management.
3. Classify the traditional source of risk as to whether they are
general source of risk or specific source of risk.
4. Why is it more difficult to determine the value of a common
stock as opposed to finding the value of a bond? Explain the various
methods of common stock valuation.
5. Discuss various avenues of investment and evaluate the merits
and demerits of financial assets from the point of view of investors.
6. Define investment. What are the characteristics of investment and
also explain the criteria for evaluating the investment?
46
 7. How risk and return of equity investment can be measured?
Explain with examples.
8. Discuss the broad process involved in making investment
decisions and highlight the factors to be considered in the decision
process.

Ref er ence f or det ailed st udy:

1. Donald E. Fischer, “Security Analysis and Portfolio

Management”, Prentice Hall Inc.
2. Charles P. Jones, “ Investments Analysis and Management”,
Wiley International.
3. Jack Clark Francis, “Investments Analysis and Management”,
Mc-Graw Hills International.
4. M. Ranganatham, and R. Madhumathi, “Investments Analysis
and Portfolio Management”, Pearson Education.
5. V.K. Bhalla, “Investment Management”, Sultan Chand
Publications Ltd.

47
48
 UNIT – II
Equity Stock Analysis

The primary motive for buying stock is to sell it later at an enhanced

price. In many cases, the investor also expects a dividend. Both price and
dividend are the principal ingredients in an investors return or yield.

If the investor had adequate information about and knowledge of stock

prices and dividend yields he would be able to make handsome returns.
However, in reality complexities of political, economic, social and other forces
hinder the prediction of stock movements and returns with any certainty.

King observed that on an average over half the variation in stock prices
could be attributed to a market influence that affects all stock market indexes.
But stocks are also subject to industry influence over and above the influence
common to all stocks. King noted that industry influence explained, on the
average, 13 percent of the variations in a stocks price.In sum about two thirds of
variation in the prices of stocks observed in the kings study was the result of
market and industry. This highlights the necessity of the financial analyst to
examine the economic and industry influences as well as the individual
companies’ performance in order to accurately take any investment decisions.

The multitude of factors affecting a firm’s profitability can be broadly

classified as:

 Economy-wise factors: These include factors like growth rate of the

economy, the rate of inflation, foreign exchange rates etc. which affect
the profitability of all the companies.

49
  Industry-wise factors: These factors are specific to the industry in
which the firm is operating; for example the demand supply gap in the
industry, the emergence of substitute products and changes in
government policy relating to the industry.

 Firm specific factors: Such as age of the plant, the quality of its
management, the brand image of its products and its labour relations.

Economic Analysis

Return assumptions for the stock and bond markets and sales, cost, and
profit projections for industries and nearly all companies necessarily embody
economic assumptions. Investors are concerned with those forces in the
economy which affect the performance of organization in which they wish to
participate, through purchase of stock. By identifying key assumptions and
variables, we can monitor the economy and gauge the implications of new
information on our economic outlook and industry analysis. In order to beat the
market on a risk adjusted basis, the investor must have forecasts that differ from
the market consensus and must be correct more often than not.

Economic trends can take two basic forms: cyclical changes that arise
from ups and downs of the business cycle, and structural changes that occur
when the economy is undergoing a major change in how it functions. Some of
the broad forces which impact the economy are:

Population

Population gives and idea of the kind of labour force in a country.

Increasing population gives demand for more industries like hotels, residences,

50
service industries like health, consumer demand like refrigerators and cars.
Increasing population therefore shows a greater need for economic development.
Although it does not show the exact industry that will expand.

Research and technological development

The economic forces relating to investments would depend on the

amount of resources spent by the government on the particular technological
development affecting the future. Investors would prefer to invest in those
industries in which the larger share of development funds are being allocated by
the government. For example in India oil and information technology are
receiving a greater amount of attention and may be considered for investment.

Macroeconomic Stability

General macroeconomic conditions are very important in terms of the

general climate under which investment decisions are made. So economic
growth will depend to some extent upon the stability of the economy e.g. fiscal
balance, and reasonably predictable levels of inflation. Macroeconomic stability
reduces the risks of investment and might therefore be seen as a necessary
condition for growth. Fiscal balance ensures that there is less risk of inflation,
because there will be less risk of governments printing money. This may also
stabilize the exchange rate and allow interest rates to be set at a reasonably low
level - so further encouraging investment.

Trade Liberalization, Capital Mobility and Exchange Rate Policy

The abolition of trade restrictions (tariffs and quotas) is often seen as a

necessary condition for growth. The idea is to widen markets and thus allow

51
economies of scale in exporting industries. It is often argued that exchange rates
need to be adjusted downwards at the same time, to ensure that potential
exporters can compete on world markets. To encourage direct foreign
investment restrictions on international capital flows may need to be reduced.

Natural Resources and Raw Material

The natural resources are largely responsible for a country’s economic

development and overall improvement in the condition of corporate growth. The
discovery of oil in Middle Eastern countries and the discovery of gas in America
has significantly changed the economic and investment pattern of the countries.

Gross domestic product (GDP)

GDP measures the total output of goods and services for final use
occurring within the domestic territory of a given country, regardless of the
allocation to domestic and foreign claims. Gross domestic product at purchaser
values (market prices) is the sum of gross value added by all resident and
nonresident producers in the economy plus any taxes and minus any subsidies
not included in the value of the products. Higher GDP level is an indication of
higher economic development and thereby higher investment ability.

International Trade

Exports and Imports of goods and services represent the value of all
goods and other market services provided to or received from the rest of the
world. They include the value of merchandise, freight, insurance, transport,
travel, royalties, license fees, and other services, such as communication,
construction, financial, information, business, personal, and government
services. They exclude labor and property income (formerly called factor

52
services) as well as transfer payments. Higher levels of international trade
especially higher exports are indicative of higher earnings and therefore higher
economic development of a country.

Inflation

Higher inflation is generally negative for the stock market because it

causes higher interest rates, it increases uncertainty about future prices and
costs, and it harms firms that cannot pass their cost increases on to consumers.
Some industries may benefit inflation. Natural resource industries benefit if their
production costs do not rise with inflation, because their output will likely sell at
higher price.

Interest Rates

Banks usually benefit from volatile interest rates because stable interest
rates lead to heavy competitive pressures that squeeze their interest margins.
High interest rates clearly harm the housing and the construction industry.

Economic Indicators

Besides the factors discussed above there are other significant economic
indicators such as country’s fiscal policy, monetary policy, stock prices, state of
capital market, labour productivity, consumer activity etc.

53
A look of India’s economic indicators for the year 2005-2006 is as follows
ECONOMIC SUMMARY
2005-06 Growth
%
3200.6
GDP at factor cost at current prices:
12.5
(Rs. Thousand crore) US$ million
72316.3
At 1999-00 prices (Rs. Thousand 2586.6
crore) 8.1
US$ million 584542.3
508.6
Agriculture and allied sectors:
2.3
(Rs. Thousand crore) (US$ million)
114937.8
Food grains production (Million
209.3 2.3
tones)
Index of industrial production 215.4 7.8
Electricity generated (Billion kwh) 458.6 4.7
196.2
Wholesale price index 4.1
(on February 4, 2006)
Consumer price index for industrial 550
5.6
workers (December 2005)
2551.9
Money supply (Rs. Thousand crore)
(on January 20, 2006)
(Outstanding at the end of financial 16.4
year) (US$ million)
576700.5
Imports at current prices (US$ 108,803
26.7
million) (April-Jan 2005-06)
Exports at current prices (US$ 74,978
18.9
million) (April-Jan 2005-06)
Foreign currency assets (US$ 133,770
8.2
million) (by end January 2006)
44.25
Exchange rate (Re/US$) (Average exchange rate for 2.1
April-January 2005-06)

54
Forecasting techniques

There are basically five economic forecasting techniques:

Surveys: It is a method of short term forecasting. It is broadly used to convey

the future course of events in the economy. The method to do this is approximate

"because it is based on beliefs, notions and future budgeting of the government.

It, however, broadly indicates the future of events in the economy.

Economic Indicators: It gives indication of the economic process through

cyclical timings. These projections are a method of getting indications of the
future relating to business depressions and business prosperity. This method
although has its advantages of giving the future indications of the economy is
not an exact method of finding out the economic activity. It gives results
approximately and is at best an estimation of the future of the economic
conditions.

Diffusion Indexes: The diffusion index is a method which combines the

different indicators into one total measure and it gives weaknesses and strength
of a particular time series of data. The diffusion index is also called a census or a
composite index.

Economic Model Building: This is a mathematical and statistical application to

forecast the future trend of the economy. This technique can be used by trained
technicians and it is used to draw out relation between two or more variables.
The technique is to make one independent variable and independent variable and
to draw out a relationship between these variables. The answer of drawing these
relationships is to get a forecast of direction as well as magnitude.

55
Opportunistic Model Building: This method is the most widely used economic
forecasting method. This is also sectoral analysis of Gross National Product
Model Building. This method uses the national accounting data to be able to
forecast for a future short-term period. It is a flexible and reliable method of
forecasting. The method of forecasting is to find out the total income and the
total demand for the forecast period. To this are added the environment
conditions of political stability, economic and fiscal policies of the government,
policies relating to tax and interest rates. This must be added to Gross domestic
investment, government purchases of goods in services, consumption expenses
and net exports. The forecast has to be broken down first by an estimate of the
government sector which is to be divided again into State Government and
Central Government expenses. The gross private domestic investment is to be
calculated by adding the business expenses for plan, construction and equipment
changes in the level of business. The third sector which is to be taken is the
consumption sector relating to the personal consumption factor. This sector is
usually divided into components of durable goods, non-durable goods and
services. When data has been taken of all these sectors these are added up to get
the forecast for the Gross National Product

Industry Analysis

Once economic Analysis is made and the forecast of economy is known ,

the analyst needs to look at the industry groups which are promising in the
coming years and then choose the companies to invest in within those industry
groups. There is no necessary co relation between economic growth and industry
growth some industries may grow in spite of poor economic growth. The
industry has been defined as a homogeneous group of people doing a similar
kind of activity or similar work. But industry broadly covers all the economic
activity happening in a country to bring growth. A broad concept of industry
56
would include all the factors of production, transportation, trading activity and
public utilities. The broad classification of industry, however, would not be
relevant for an investor who would like to ensure that he does not lose from the
investment that he makes. It is, therefore, essential to qualify the industry into
some characteristics homogeneous group. Usually, the industry is classified in
processes and in stages. It may also be classified according to work group that it
identifies to.

Classification of industries

In India asset based industry grouping used to exist under MRTP Act and
FERA Act. However, since economic reforms in 1991 onwards, there is no limit
to the asset growth and the classification of MRTP and non MRTP companies
has since disappeared. Nowadays, even multinational firms can operate in India
through their subsidiaries or directly by having a majority stake in a company.

The size wise classification of industries is as follows:

Small scale units: These industries are not listed and those which have a
minimum paid up capital of Rs 30 lakhs can be listed on OTCEI.

Medium Scale Industries: The units having paid up capital of Rs 5 crores and
above can be listed on regional stock exchanges.

Large scale Industries: Industrial units with paid up capital of Rs 10 crores or

more can be listed on major stock exchanges like BSE.

57
Proprietary Based Classification

The industries can be classified on the basis of ownership into (a) private
sector industries which are open to the general public for investment (b) public
sector (Government and semi-government ownership) (c) and in joint sector.

Use Based Classification

(a) Basic Industries: These are in the core sector in India and constitute the
infrastructure industries which are mostly in the public sector but are
now kept open to the public sector. The examples are fertilizers,
chemicals, coal, cement, steel etc.

(b) Capital Goods Industries: These are both in the private and public
sectors. These are highly capital intensive industries and are used to
produce inputs of other industries such as machine tools, agricultural
machinery, wires, cables etc.

(c) Intermediate goods: These are goods in the intermediate stage of

production, having undergone some processing already but will be used
for further production examples are tyres, synthetic yarn, cotton
spinning, automobile parts etc.

(d) Consumer goods industries: These are of two categories, namely,

consumer durables and consumer non durables. These are final products
for the consumption of households. Durables are fans, bulbs,
Automobiles, Cycles, Two wheelers, Telephone equipment etc. Non
durables are food products, Agro based products, tobacco, woolen and
jute textiles etc.

58
Input based Classification

(a) Agro based products like jute, sugar cotton, tobacco, groundnuts etc.
(b) Forest based products like plywood, paper, wood, ivory, resin honey etc.
(c) Marine based products like fisheries, prawns, etc.
(d) Metal based products like engineering products, aluminium, copper, gold
etc.
(e) Chemical based products like fertilizers, pesticides, drugs paints etc.

Each of the above classifications is useful for identifying the characteristic

features of the industry, its inputs and outputs or uses and the likely demand for
it, constraints in production, impact of economic factors etc.

Industry Life Cycle

An insightful analysis when predicting industry sales and trends in

profitability is to view the industry over time and divide its development into
stages similar to those that humans progress through. The number of stages in
the industry life cycle analysis can be based on a five stages model, which
includes:

1. Pioneering Development
2. Rapid accelerating growth
3. Mature growth during this period is very small or negative profit margins
and profits.
4. Stabilization and market maturity
5. Deceleration of growth and decline.

Besides being useful when estimating sales, the analysis of an industry’s

life cycles also can provide insights into profit margins and earnings growth.
59
The profit margin series typically peaks early in the total cycle and then levels
off and declines as competition is attracted by the early success of the industry.

1. Pioneering Development: During this start up stage, the industry

experiences modest sales growth and very small or negative profit
margins and profits. The market for the industry’s product or service
during this time period is small, and the firms involved incur major
development costs.

2. Rapid Accelerating Growth: During this stage a market develops for

the product or service and demand becomes substantial. The limited
number of firms in the industry faces little competition and individual
firms can experience substantial backlogs. The profit margins are very
high. The industry builds its productive capacity as sales grow at an
increasing rate as the industry attempts to meet excess demand. High
scales growth and high profit margins that increase as firms become
more efficient cause industry and firm profits to explode. During this
phase profits can grow at over 100% a year as a result of the low warning
base and the rapid growth of scales and net profit margins.

3. Mature Growth: The success in stage two has satisfied most of the
demand for the industry goods or service. Thus, future scales growth
may be above normal but it no longer accelerates for example, if the over
all economy is growing at 8% scale for this industry might grow at an
above normal rate of 15% to 20% a year. Also the rapid growth of scales
and high profit margins attract competitors to the industry which causes
an increase in supply and lower prices which means that the profit
margins begin to decline to normal levels.

60
4. Stabilization And Market Maturity: During this stage which is
probably the longest phase the industry growth rate declines to the
growth rate of the aggregate economy or its industry segment. During
this stage investors can estimate growth easily because scales correlate
highly with an economic series. Although scales grow in line with the
economy profit growth varies by industry because the competitive
structure varies by industries and by individual firms within the industry
because the ability to control costs differs among companies.
Competition produces tight profit margins and the rates of return on
capital eventually become equal to or slightly below the competitive
level.

5. Declaration of Growth and Decline: At this stage of maturity the

industry sales growth declines because of shifts in demand or growth of
substitutes. Profit margins continue to be squeezed and some firms
experience low profit or even losses. Firms that remain profitable may
show very low rates of return on capital. Finally, investors begin thinking
about alternative uses for the capital tied up in this industry.

Assessing the Industry Life Cycle

The industry life cycle classification of industry evolvement helps

investors to assess the growth potential of different companies in an industry.
Based on the stage of industry, they can better assess the potential of different
companies within an industry. However, there are limitations to this type of
analysis First, it is only a generalization, and investors must be careful not to
attempt to categorize every industry, or all companies within a particular
industry, into neat categories that may not apply. Second, even the general
framework may not apply to some industries that are not categorized by many
61
small companies struggling for survival. Finally, the bottom line in security
analysis is stock prices, a function of the expected stream of benefits and the risk
involved.

The industry life cycle tends to focus on sales and share of the market
and investment in the industry. Although all of these factors are important to
investors, they are not the final items of interests. Given these qualifications to
industry life cycle analysis, what are the implications for investors?

The pioneering stage may offer the highest potential returns, but it also
poses the greatest risk. Several companies in an industry will fail or do poorly.
Such risk may be appropriate for some investors, but many will wish to avoid
the risk inherent in this stage.

Investors interested primarily in capital gains should avoid the maturity

stage. Companies at this stage may have relatively high payouts because they
have fewer growth prospects. These companies will often offer stability in
earnings and dividend growths.

Clearly, companies in the fourth stage of the industrial life cycle, decline,
are usually to be avoided. Investors should seek to spot industries in this stage
and avoid them. It is the second stage, expansion that is probably of most
interest to investors. Industries that have survived the pioneering stage often
offer good opportunities for the demand for their products and services is
growing more rapidly than the economy as a whole. Growth is rapid but orderly
an appealing characteristic to investors.

62
ELEMENTS OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Share price depends partly on its intrinsic worth for which financial
analysis of a company is necessary to help the investor to decide whether to buy
or not the shares of that company. The soundness and intrinsic worth of a
company is known only by such analysis. The market price of a share depends,
among others on the sound fundamentals of the company, the financial and
operational efficiency and the profitability of that company. These factors can be
examined by a study of the financial management of the company. An investor
needs to know the performance of the company, its intrinsic worth as indicated
by some parameters like book value, EPS, P/E multiple etc., and come to a
conclusion whether the share is rightly priced for purchase or not. This, in short
is the importance of financial analysis of a company to the investor.

What is Financial Analysis?

The financial management of a company is concerned with management

of its funds which reflects how efficiently the company is managing its funds.
The overall objective of all business is to secure funds at low cost and their
effective utilization in the business for a profit. The funds so utilized must
generate an income higher than the cost of procuring them. Here it is to be noted
that all companies need both long-term and short-term capital. The finance
manager must therefore keep in view the needs of both long-term debt and
working capital and ensure that the business enjoys an optimum level of
working capital a id that it does not keep too many funds blocked in inventories,
book-debts, cash, etc. The capital structuring and average cost of capital for the
company should also be examined.

Financial analysis is analysis of financial statements of a company to

assess its financial health and soundness of its management. "Financial
63
Statement analysis" involves a study of the financial statements of a company to
ascertain its prevailing state of affairs and the reasons therefore. Such a study
would enable the public and investors to ascertain whether one company is more
profitable than the other, and also to state the causes and factors that are
probably responsible for this.

Components of Financial Statements

The term 'financial statements' as used in modern business refers to the

balance sheet, or the statement of financial position of the company at a point of
rime and income and expenditure statement, or the profit and loss statement over
a period. To this is added, the profit allocation statement which reconciles the
balance in this account at the end of the period with that at the beginning. Thus,
the financial statements provide a summary of the accounts of a company over a
period of one year, and the balance sheet reflecting the assets, liabilities and
capital as at a point of time say at the end of the year.

Analysis and Interpretation: With a view to interpret the financial statements,

it is necessary to analyse them with the object of formation of an opinion with
respect to the financial condition of that company.
This Analysis involves the following steps:

(a) Comparison of the financial statements, over two to five years.

(b) Ratio analysis, for two to three years.
(c) Funds or Cash Flow analysis, over a short period.
(d) Trend analysis, over a period of 5 to 10 years.

64
Comparison of the Financial Statements

Comparison is the precondition for a meaningful interpretation. It may be in the

nature of:
(a) Figures of one year with that of another year;
(b) Inter-firm comparison of figures, within the same industry;
(c) Comparison of one product figures with that of another product; and
(d) Comparison of budgeted figures with the actual figures.

RATIO ANALYSIS

Ratios, are probably the most frequently used tool to analyse a company, and are
popular because they are readily understood and can be computed with ease. In
addition, the information used in ratio analysis is easy to obtain, for many ratios
employ data available in a firm’s annual report and quarterly reports. Ratio’s are
used not only by investors but also by a firm’s management and its creditors.
Creditors use the analysis to establish the ability of the borrowers to pay interest
and retire debt. Management use ratio’s to plan, control, and to identify
weaknesses within the firm. Shareholders use ratio’s to measure firms
profitability. The ratio is a statistical yardstick that provides a measure of
relationship between any two variables.

The ratios are conveniently classified as follows:

(i) Balance Sheet Ratios which deal with the relationships between two
items or groups of items which are both in the Balance Sheet, e.g., the
ratio of current assets to current liabilities (Current Ratio).

65
(ii) Revenue Statement Ratios which deal with the relationship between two
items or groups of items which are both in the Revenue Statement, e.g.,
ratio of gross profit to sale or gross profit margin.

(iii) Balance Sheet and Revenue Statement Ratios which deal with
relationship between items from the Revenue Statement and. items from
the Balance Sheet, e.g., ratio of net profit to own Funds (Composite
Ratios), Return on Total Resources, Return on Own Funds (iv) solvency
ratios which deal with the liquidity and ability of the company e.g. Debt
to Equity Ratio, Current ratio etc

(iv) Turnover ratio’s: Turnover of Inventory Composite Ratios, Turnover of

Fixed Assets, Turnover of Debtors etc

Further ratios can be classified on the basis of objective for which they are being
used.

(i) Liquidity Ratio’ s: Liquidity is the ease with which assets may be
quickly converted into cash without the firm incurring a loss. If the firm
has a high degree of liquidity, it will be able to meet its debt obligations
as they become due. Therefore, liquidity ratios are a useful tool for the
firm’s creditors, who are concerned about being paid. These include
current ratio and quick ratio.

(a) Current Ratio: This is defined as:

Current Ratio = Current Assets /Current Liabilities

This ratio indicates the company's ability to meet current obligations,

i.e., the current assets must be sufficient to pay current liabilities as and when
the latter matures. As a rule of thumb, the current ratio should at least be 2:1 by
66
which is meant that even if half of the current assets could not be quickly
converted into cash, there would still be left enough to pay off short-term
obligations. However, for interpreting current ratio the quality and liquidity of
each current asset and current liability must be considered as also 'the nature of
the business as it may well be that various types of business may require less
liability.

(b) Quick Ratio or Acid-Test Ratio

This is defined as:

Quick Ratio/Acid Test Ratio = Cash+ Bills Receivable + Debtors +Temporary

Investment
Current Liabilities

The Acid-Test Ratio thus ignores less liquid assets like inventory, or
prepaid and deferred charges, and takes into account only the most readily
available cash and other assets which can be applied for meeting short-term
obligations at short notice. As a rule of thumb, a quick ratio of 1:1 is indicative
of a company having a good short-term liquidity, and one which can meet its
short-term debts without strain.

(ii) Activity Ratios: Activity ratios indicate the rate at which the firm is
turning its inventory and accounts receivable into cash. The more rapidly
the firm turns over its inventory and receivables, the more quickly it
acquires cash. Higher turnover indicates that the firm is rapidly receiving
cash and is in a better position to pay its liabilities as they become due.
Such high turnover however may not indicate that the firm is making
profits. For example, high inventory turnover may indicate that the firm

67
 is selling items for too low a price in order to have quicker sales. These
ratio’s include inventory turnover ratio, average collection period,
receivables turnover, fixed asset turnover etc.

a) Turnover of Current Assets this is defined as:

Turnover Current Assets = Net Sales
Current Assets

The higher the turnover of current assets ratio, the greater is the liquidity
of the firm, and the lesser is the amount blocked in current assets. This ratio will
vary from business to business and should be high for a trading company not
involved in manufacturing activity, which should be able to sell-off stock
through its distribution channels as quickly as possible. It will be low for
companies having a long reduction time, e.g., ship manufactures or heavy
equipment manufactures with long product manufacturing cycles.
b) Turnover of Inventory Ratio
This is defined as:
Turn over of Inventory Ratio = Cost of Goods Sold
Average Inventory

This ratio gives the turnover of inventory and indicates how funds
invested in inventories ire being turned over. The higher the turn over of
inventory ratio, the smaller is the amount blocked in inventory and, therefore,
the less need is there for working capital for financing the inventory. A high ratio
indicates that manufacturing activity is capable of being sustained with the help
of smaller inventory stock and consequently there is less chance of stock
becoming obsolete/ in saleable and also that the company can afford to sell on a
small gross profit margin. This is important in a highly competitive market

68
where small margins can be important. The volume of profits having to come
from high turn over volume rather than from high margins on unit-product.

c) Credit Collection Period

This is defined as:
Credit Collection Period = Account receivable x No of working days
Credit sales during the year

The smaller the number of days, the higher will be the efficiency of the
credit collection department. This ratio is indicative of the efficiency of the bill
collectors of the company. It; indicates whether the company is haying too
liberal a credit position and which would, therefore, require tightening up. This
ratio is useful for Sales Manager both to review the efficiency of his credit
collectors, and to review his credit policy, as also to appraise the supervisors/
salesmen responsible for collection of credit sales proceeds.

(iii) Profitability Ratios: The amount that a firm earns is particularly

important to investors. Earnings accrue to stockholders and are either
distributed to them as dividends or are retained. Profitability ratios are
measures of performance that indicate the amount the firm is earning
relative to some base, such as sales, assets or equity. These ratios include,
Gross profit ratio, net profit ratio, operating profit ratio, return on equity
etc.
I
a) Gross Profit Ratio
This is defined as:
Gross Profit Margin = Gross Profit x 100
Net Sales

69
 And is expressed as a percentage. The gross profit margin shows the
proportion of sales after meeting the direct cost of goods sold, i.e., direct
material, direct labour and other direct expenses. The gross profit margin should
be high enough to covey other operating, administrative and distribution
expenses as otherwise the line of activity would not be profitable for the
company. Usually, if the level of corporate profit taxation is, say 65-70 per cent
at the highest slab, the gross profit margins should be of the order of 30-35 per
cent, in order to leave a margin of 12 per cent post-tax, which is usually
considered to be a satisfactory level if continued resources for ploughing back
for growth have to be found by a company out of its own resources. If the
management wants to analyse which product of multi-product range should be
discarded or stopped it should analyse the gross profit margin of each product
and then come to a rational decision.

b) The Ratios of Operating Profit to Sales

This is defined as:
Operating Profit Margin = Operating Profit xlOO
Net Sales

This is expressed as a percentage, and indicates the operating profit

margin after taking into account all indirect costs and expenses of
manufacturing, administrative and distribution activities. All variables and fixed
costs are thus taken into account but not taxes. This ratio reflects the profitability
of the entire business after meeting all its costs but before having to meet the tax
liability.

c) Net Profit Ratio

This is defined as:
Net Profit Ratio =Net Profit xlOO
Net Sales

70
 The net profit ratio, expressed as percentage, shows the return left for the
shareholders after meeting all expenses and taxes.

d) Return of Investment (ROI) — A Key Profitability Ratio is the return on

investment ratio (ROI), which is a measure of efficiency and provides a
starting point for analyzing the influence and trends in a company's
performance.
It is defined as:
Return on Investment = Net profit (After tax) x 100
Share holders funds

ROI is a very significant ratio in measuring the overall profitability or

operational efficiency of a company. It enables the management to know
whether the basic objective of the business ---maximization of profits is
achieved. This ratio is also known as net worth ratio.

e) Return on Owners Equity

This is defined as:

ROEC = Net profit (after tax)-Preference Dividend x 100

Paid up equity share capital
it indicates to the equity shareholders what is the return on their investment in
the company and whether their continued investment in the company is
worthwhile or not.

The ratio is also called "Return on net worth".

71
(iv) Leverage Ratios: In order to magnify the return to shareholders a firm
may use leverage in the capital structure. Financial leverage refers to the
extent to which a firm finances its assets by use of debt. Since debt
financing impacts return to shareholders each of these ratios is extremely
valuable in analyzing the financial position of the firm. The most
commonly used leverage ratios are debt equity ratio and debt to total
asset ratio.

a) Debt Equity Ratio

This is defined as:
Operating Profit Margin = Total debt i.e. long-term loans + Short-term loans +
debentures _+ Interest bearing deposits
Equity

This ratio indicates what is the proportion of fixed interest bearing

capital taken by the company, as compared to the equity shareholders' capital. A
high ratio would indicate that the company has preferred to go in for fixed-
charges capital rather than for equity shareholders' capital.

b) Shareholders' Equity to Total Capital

This is defined as:
Shareholder's Equity to Total Capital = Owned Capital (Equity Capital +
Reserves)
Total Capital (Fixed Assets + Working Total Capital + Loan Capital)

This is an important ratio for determining the long-term solvency of a

company. In general, the higher the share of proprietors' or owned capital in the
total capital of the company, the less the likelihood of insolvency in future,
given normally efficient management.
72
(v) Coverage Ratios: While leverage ratios measure the firm’s use of debt,
coverage ratios specifically measure its ability to service its debt. These
ratios indicate to the creditors and management how much the firm is
earning form operations relative to what is owed. These ratios include
interest coverage ratio.
Debt Service Coverage Ratio = Profit before interest and depreciation

Interest payments and principal installments falling due during the year.

This indicates at a glance whether the borrowing company will have

adequate funds for servicing both interest payments falling due and the principal
re-payment falling due in installments for the loan taken. Depreciation is added
back to the net profits, as also the interest, in order to calculate this ratio.

USING FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS

Financial statement analysis can be a very useful tool for understanding a

firm's performance and condition. However, there are certain problems and
issues encountered in such analysis which call for care, circumspection, and
judgment.

Problems in Financial Statement Analysis

You have to cope with the following problems while analyzing financial
statements.

Lack of an Underlying Theory: The basic problem in financial statement

analysis is that there is no theory that tells us which numbers to look at and how
to interpret them. In the absence of an underlying theory, financial statement

73
analysis appears to be ad hoc, informal, and subjective. As Horrigan put it:
"From a negative viewpoint, the most striking aspect of ratio analysis is the
absence of an explicit theoretical structure...... As a result the subject of ratio
analysis is replete with untested assertions about which ratios should be used
and what their proper levels should be."

Conglomerate Firms: Many firms, particularly the large ones, have operations
spanning a wide range of industries. Given the diversity of their product lines, it
is difficult to find suitable benchmarks for evaluating their financial
performance and condition. Hence, it appears that meaningful benchmarks may
be available only for firms which have a well defined industry classification.

Window Dressing: Firms may resort to window dressing to project a

favourable financial picture. For example, a firm may prepare its balance sheet
at a point when its inventory level is very low. As a result, it may appear that the
firm has a very comfortable liquidity position and a high turnover of inventories.
When window dressing of this kind is suspected, the financial analyst should
look at the average level of inventory over a period of time and the not the level
of inventory at just one point of time.

Price Level Changes: Financial accounting, as it is currently practiced in India

and most other countries, does not take into account price level changes. As a
result, balance sheet figures are distorted and profits misreported. Hence,
financial statement analysis can be vitiated.

Variations in Accounting Policies: Business firms have some latitude in the

accounting treatment of items like depreciation, valuation of stocks, research
and development expenses, foreign exchange transactions, installment sales,

74
preliminary and pre-operative expenses, provision of reserves, and revaluation
of assets. Due to diversity of accounting policies found in practice, comparative
financial statement analysis may be vitiated.

Interpretation of Results: Though industry averages and other yardsticks are

commonly used in financial ratios, it is somewhat difficult to judge whether a
certain ratio is 'good' or "bad'. A high current ratio, for example, may indicate a
strong liquidity position (something good) or excessive inventories (something
bad). Likewise, a high turnover of fixed assets may mean efficient utilization of
plant and machinery or continued flogging of more or less fully depreciated,
worn out, and inefficient plant and machinery.

Another problem in interpretation arises when a firm has some

favourable ratios and some unfavorable ratios—and this is rather common. In
such a situation, it may be somewhat difficult to form an overall judgement
about its financial strength or weakness. Multiple discriminant analysis, a
statistical tool, may be employed to sort out the net effect of several ratios
pointing in different directions.

Correlation among Ratios: Notwithstanding the previous observation,

financial ratios of a firm often show a high degree of correlation. Why? This is
because several ratios have some common element (sales, for example, are used
in various turnover ratios) and several items tend to move in harmony because of
some common underlying factor. In view of ratio correlations, it is redundant
and often confusing to employ a large number of ratios in financial statement
analysis. Hence it is necessary to choose a small group of ratios from a large set
of ratios. Such a selection requires a good understanding of the meaning and
limitations of various ratios and an insight into the economics of the business.

75
Guidelines for Financial Statement Analysis

From the foregoing discussion, it is clear that financial statement analysis cannot
be treated as a simple, structured exercise. When you analyse financial
statements bear in mind the following guidelines.

1. Use ratios to get clues to ask the right questions: By themselves ratios
rarely provide answers, but they definitely help you to raise the right
questions.

2. Be selective in the choice of ratios: You can compute scores of different

ratios and easily drown yourself into confusion. For most purposes a
small set of ratios—three to seven—would suffice. Few ratios, aptly
chosen, would capture most of the information that you can derive from
financial statements.

3. Employ proper benchmarks: It is a common practice to compare the

ratios (calculated from a set of financial statements) against some
benchmarks. These benchmarks may be the average ratios of the industry
or the ratios of the industry leaders or the historic ratios of the firm itself.

4. Know the tricks used by accountants: Since firms tend to manipulate the
reported income, you should learn about the devices employed by them.

5. Read the footnotes: Footnotes sometimes contain valuable information.

They may reveal things that management may try to hide. The more
difficult it is to read a footnote, the more information—laden it may be.

76
Cash Flow Analysis

Analysis of a firm’s income statement and balance sheet with special emphasis
on profitability and net earnings available to the shareholder is important.
However, increased interest has developed among financial analysts in a firm’s
operational income and cash flow. Since net earnings may be affected by non
recurring items for example profit on sale of fixed assets, some financial
analysts place more emphasis on cash flow. The argument is that the cash flow
generated by a firm’s operations is a better indication of its profitability and
value. Thus the use of cash flow is greatly increasing. This statement determines
the changes in the firm’s holdings of cash and cash equivalent (i.e. short term
liquid assets, treasury bills etc). The emphasis is not on the income or the firm’s
assets and liabilities but on the inflow and outflow of cash from the firms
operations, investments, and financing decisions. By placing emphasis on cash,
the statement permits the individual to see where the firm generated cash and
how these funds were used.

The cash flow statement can also help investors examine the quality of
earnings. For example, if inventories are rising more quickly than sales, this can
be a real sign of trouble – demand is weakening. If a firm is cutting back on its
capital expenditures, this could be a signal of problems down the road. If
accounts receivables are rising at a greater rate than sales are increasing a
company may be having trouble collecting money owed. If accounts payable are
rising too high this may indicate that the company is trying to conserve cash by
delaying payment to creditors and suppliers which may lead to problems for the
company.

77
HOW TO PREPARE CASH FLOW STATEMENT?

The data come from the Balance sheet and Income Expenditure
statement in the form of changes over a period of each in the items of these
financial statements. The example of a cash flow statement is as follows:

Basis for Company Analysis 113 (Rs. Lakhs)

Sources Rs. Use of or

Decline in Cash
Cash at Bank 10,000 Increase in Inventories 20,000
AM: Cash inflows Purchase of Fixed Assets 60,000
(a) Issue of Equity Capital 50,000 Increase in Debtors 20,000
as Rights Payment for Expenses 30,000
(b) Issue of Debentures 20,000
(c) Raising of Public 10,000
Deposits
(d) Increase of Creators 10,000
(e) Cash Trading Profits
(generated) 60,000
160,000 130,000
Closing Balance in Bank 30,000

Cash profits are brought forward from profit allocation statement, while
the other items are derived from the Balance Sheet and income and expenditure
statement. A reading of the above statement helps the cash management
techniques adopted by the company and its liquidity position.

Trend Analysis

In trend analysis, regression technique is used and the dependent variable

says sales are regressed over time, say months or years. Similarly, earnings can
be regressed over time to know the short term and long-term trend of earnings.

78
These techniques require a good deal of data of the past and analysis for a length
of time for experimentation. Trend Analysis refers to comparison of some
important ratios and rates of growth over a time period of a few years. These
trends in the case of GPM or Sales Turnover are useful to indicate the extent of
improvement or deterioration over a period of time in the aspects considered.
The trends in dividends, E.P.S., asset growth or sales growth are some examples
of the trends used to study the operational performance of the companies. Any
temporary rise in inventories to sales would indicate sluggish demand for the
products of the company.

Thus, the trends of the results, rather than the actual ratios and
percentages, are important. Structural relationships taken from the financial
statements of one year only are of limited value and the trends of these structural
relationships established from statements over a number of years may be more
significant than absolute ratios

Market Price and Corporate Performance

The market price of a share depends primarily on the Company's

performance, reflected in the earnings per share or cash earning per share,
dividend record and bonus payments made by the company. Besides, share price
also depends on the goodwill factors which are subjective in nature such as
management reputation, expansion plans, tax planning, technological set-up,
reputation of collaborators and locational advantages. The management rating is
subjective and is a factor contributing to the goodwill of the company. This
goodwill also depends on the Government attitude to the management,
Government policy with regard to the imports etc.

Honesty, integrity and consistency of management give good rating for

the company. The price of a share also depends on subjective factors like
79
sentiment of the market, phase of the market such as gloom, fear, indecision,
optimism and Euphoria etc. Thus, many non-economic and non-financial factors
play a role in price formation of a scrip in die market.

To sum up, the market price of share depends on some fundamental

factors like intrinsic value of the share, as also on subjective and goodwill
factors and sentimental factors depending on the phase of the market. The
intrinsic worth of the company is judged by the net present value, derived by
discounting future returns of shares, book value of the share, earnings per share
etc.

Forecasting earnings

Forecasting earnings per share (EPS) is an important task for both

outside investors and internal managers. Outside the firms, investors use these
forecasts as a basis to form profitable investment portfolios. Inside the firms,
managers use these forecasts for a host of critically important decisions
including operational budgeting, capital investment, and other resource
allocation decisions. Accuracy in these forecasts, therefore, is essential for
both optimum portfolio management in capital markets and optimum resource
allocation within a firm.

Selecting a forecasting methodology is, in itself, a major decision for

investors and for managers. Earlier research on the accuracy of alternative
forecasting methods has been in one of the two categories: (1) comparing
different statistical or mechanical forecasting methods, and (2) comparing
statistical models with judgmental analysts' forecasts. Building on these two
lines of research, later literature suggests that a combination of the statistical
forecasts and financial analyst forecasts will produce more accurate results.

80
 The considerable amount of research on statistical forecasting models
in the literature has created the need for varied means of categorization to
identify and select models one means of basic categorization of the statistical
forecasting methods used to aid in model selection is to identify models as
either being linear or nonlinear. Another categorization of statistical
forecasting models is to refer to them as being either "univariate" (i.e., using
one independent variable in the model) or "multivariate" (i.e., more than one
independent variable). In the context of EPS forecasts, to date, the majority of
the statistical methods used in forecasting EPS are linear. For example, the
family of time-series forecast models widely used in forecasting EPS belongs
to the linear forecasting category. Some practical methods are as follows:

1. Use of Earnings Model, for EBT (Earning before tax)namely,

EBT={R+(R-I) L /E} E
Where, R is the average return on Investments or Assets, I is the interest cost
on liabilities other than equity, L/E is the debt equity ratio or total liabilities
other than equity to equity.

If we have the data on the past ernings on assets, the manner of financing and
the average cost of interest on liabilities, we will have the average past trends
of R, I and plug in these values for the present and future. If we know EBT, by
deducting the tax payable at the effective rate in the past we can arrive at the
EAT (Earning after tax). Once we know EAT by dividing EAT by the
outstanding number of shares we will get the EPS (Earning per share). If the
past average P/E (Price earning ratio) multiple is say Rs15 and the EPS works
out to Rs 10 then the market price can be estimated at Rs 150 i.e., EPS x P/E .

81
2. Market Share Approach

From an industry anlaysis, it is known that the share of the company

XYZ is 9% of the market and the demand for its product will go up from 26
lakhs to 28 lakhs. Then the sales of XYZ can be put at 2.5 lakhs in the next
year. On the basis of this sales rate and the average operating profit margin of
last three years say 35% one can estimate the income from sales and 35% of it
is taken as operating profits, from which interest and depreciation and taxes
can be deducted at their normal rates and arrive at profit after taxes (EAT).
Then estimates of EPS and P/E multiple and the market price at the end of the
next year can be made.

Intrinsic Value

For equity analysis, Graham and Dodd noted that there were three
approaches. The first they called the anticipation approach. This involved
selecting and recommending that equity shares "out perform" the market over a
given span of time, usually the ensuing 12 months. This approach they noted did
not involve seeking an answer to the question:" What is the stock worth?" The
second concept stands in market contrast. It attempts to value a share
independently of its current market price. If the value found is substantially
above or below the current price, the analyst concludes that the issue should be
bought or disposed off. This independent value has a variety of names, the most
familiar of which is the intrinsic value. It may also be called indicated value,
central value, normal value, investment value, reasonable value, fair value and
appraised value. Graham, Dodd and Cattle's third approach is concerned with
relative rather than with intrinsic value from the current level of the equity
prices. In estimating relative value, the analyst more or less accepts the

82
prevailing market level and seeks to determine the value of equity in terms of it.
His efforts, therefore, are devoted fundamentally to appraising the relative
attractiveness of individual issues in terms of the then existing level of equity
prices and not to determine the fundamental worm of equity.

A general definition of intrinsic value would be "that value which is

justified by the facts, e.g. assets, earnings, dividends, definite prospects,
including the factor of management". The primary objective in using the
adjective "intrinsic" is to emphasize the distinction between value and current
market price, but not to invest minus "value" with an aura of performance. The
most important single factor determining a stock's value is now held to be the
indicated future earning power i.e., the estimated average earnings for a future
span of years. Intrinsic value would then be found by first forecasting minus
earning power and then multiplying that prediction by an appropriate
"capitalization factor".

Graham, Dodd and Cottle were explicit that their intrinsic value approach would
not apply to high growth rate stocks or inherently speculative issues since they
do not admit of a "soundly ascertained value". They consider only growth stocks
at high price earnings ratios basically in this category. In other words, a genuine
growth stock will typically appear to be selling too high by one evaluation
standards and the true investor may do well to avoid it for mis reason. But both
the price and the ultimate value may often develop independently of, and
contrary to, any given valuation.

Definitions and Characteristics of Bonds

A bond is a long-term promissory note that promises to pay the

bondholder a predetermined, fixed amount of interest each year until maturity.

83
At maturity, the principal will be paid to the bondholder. In the case of a firm's
insolvency, a bondholder has a priority of claim to the firm's assets before the
preferred and common stockholders. Also, bondholders must be paid interest due
them before dividends can be distributed to the stockholders. A bond's par value
is the amount that will be repaid by the firm when the bond matures.

The contractual agreement of the bond specifies a coupon interest rate

that is expressed either as a percent of the par value or as a flat amount of
interest which the borrowing firm promises to pay the bondholder each year. For
example: A Rs 1,00 par value bond specifying a coupon interest rate of 9
percent is equivalent to an annual interest payment of Rs 9. The bond has a
maturity date, at which time the borrowing firm is committed to repay the loan
principal.

An indenture (or trust deed) is the legal agreement between the firm
issuing the bonds and the bond trustee who represents the bondholders. It
provides the specific terms of the bond agreement such as the rights and
responsibilities of both parties. The current yield on a bond refers to the ratio of
annual interest payment to the bond’s market price.

In comparison to equities, bonds might, at first sight, appear much

less glamorous and exciting, but bonds too have their subtleties and pitfalls
for the unwary. In fact, in some ways bonds demand greater alertness and
skill on the part of the investor. This is because, in general, there is less
uncertainty about the cash flows accruing to the bond holder as compared
to the shareholder: the emphasis is therefore, on more fine tuned
calculations and analysis. Typically, bond prices fluctuate less than equity
prices, and the investor who desires superior performance has to be on the
lookout for even small differentials in prices and returns.
84
Bond Valuation

Bond valuation is the process of determining the fair price of a bond. As with
any security, the fair value of a bond is the present value of the stream of cash
flows it is expected to generate. Hence, the price or value of a bond is
determined by discounting the bond's expected cash flows to the present using
the appropriate discount rate.

GENERAL RELATIONSHIPS

The present value relationship

The fair price of a straight bond (a bond with no embedded option; is determined
by discounting the expected cash flows:
 Cash flows:
o the periodic coupon payments C, each of which is made once
every period;
o the par or face value P, which is payable at maturity of the bond
after T periods.
 Discount rate: the required (annually compounded) yield or rate of return
r.
o r is the market interest rate for new bond issues with similar risk
ratings

Bond Price =

Because the price is the present value of the cash flows, there is an inverse
relationship between price and discount rate: the higher the discount rates the
lower the value of the bond (and vice versa). A bond trading below its face value
is trading at a discount; a bond trading above its face value is at a premium.

85
Coupon yield

The coupon yield is simply the coupon payment (C) as a percentage of the face
value (F).
Coupon yield = C / F
Coupon yield is also called nominal yield.

Current yield

The current yield is simply the coupon payment (C) as a percentage of the bond
price (P).
Current yield = C / P0.

Yield to Maturity

The yield to maturity, YTM, is the discount rate which returns the market price
of the bond. It is thus the internal rate of return of an investment in the bond
made at the observed price. YTM can also be used to price a bond, where it is
used as the required return on the bond.
Solve for YTM where

Market Price =
To achieve a return equal to YTM, the bond owner must 1) Reinvest each
coupon received at this rate 2) Redeem at Par 3) Hold until Maturity

86
BOND PRICING

1. Relative price approach

Here the bond will be priced relative to a benchmark, usually a

government security. The discount rate used to value the bond is
determined based on the bond's rating relative to a government security
with similar maturity. The better the quality of the bond, the smaller the
spread between its required return and the YTM of the benchmark. This
required return is then used to discount the bond cash flows as above.

2. Arbitrage free pricing approach

In this approach, the bond price will reflect its arbitrage free price
(arbitrage=practice of taking advantage of a state of imbalance between
two or more markets). Here, each cash flow is priced separately and is
discounted at the same rate as the corresponding government issues Zero
coupon bond. (Some multiple of the bond (or the security) will produce
an identical cash flow to the government security (or the bond in
question).) Since each bond cash flow is known with certainty, the bond
price today must be equal to the sum of each of its cash flows discounted
at the corresponding risk free rate - i.e. the corresponding government
security. Were this not the case, arbitrage would be possible - see
rational pricing.
Here the discount rate per cash flow, rt, must match that of the
corresponding zero coupon bond's rate.

Bond Price =

87
BOND INTRINSIC VALUES

As a final step in bond analysis, investors should examine the market

position of bonds. They must investigate whether the market price of a bond is
out of line with the similarly rated bonds by performing an evaluation —
calculating intrinsic values. Astute investors feel that value of bonds stems from
the income stream these securities throw off. Thus, they feel that the value of a
bond depends upon the present value of the aggregate interest payments plus the
present value of the final maturity payment. But, this valuation technique
presents investors with-a serious problem, namely, what is an appropriate
discount rate ? The answer will depend upon the required rate of return the
investor has in his mind. It will differ from person to person too. Generally, an
Indian bond investor is aiming at a return of 15-18 percent per annum. The rate
used to discount bond flows, thus, is a critical value judgement.

The question can be answered through regression analysis — marking

returns with maturity dates so that a regression line can be determined. The
investors can use their regression line to establish discount rates use with bond
flows.

In addition, investors often average the yields supplied by investment

services for various bonds retiring. This technique might be termed as the "quick
method". Finally, the appraisal value is compared with the market price to
indicate the degree of fairness present.

88
BOND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Interest Rate Anticipation

Strategies which involve forecasting interest rates and altering a bond

portfolio to take advantage of that forecast are called "interest rate anticipation"
strategies. Interest rates are the most important factor in the pricing of bonds.
The price of a bond is based on its interest rate or "yield" at any particular time
and the most important influence on a bond's yield is the market interest rate
structure. The market interest rate for any particular term of bond is generally
agreed to be represented by the yields on government bonds, as these are viewed
as highly liquid and of very low default risk.

 Basic Interest rate Anticipation Strategy: involves moving between

long-term government bonds and very short-term treasury bills, based on
a forecast of interest rates over a certain time horizon.
 Yield Curve Strategies: are more sophisticated interest rate
anticipation strategies taking into account the differences in interest rates
for different terms of bonds, called the "term structure" of interest rates.
A chart of the interest rates for bonds of different terms is called the
"yield curve". A yield curve strategy would position a bond portfolio to
profit the most from an expected change in the yield curve, based on an
economic or market forecast.

Sector Rotation in Bonds

A sector rotation strategy for bonds involves varying the weights of

different types of bonds held within a portfolio. An investment manager will
form an opinion on the valuation of a specific sector of the bond market, based
on the credit fundamental factors for that sector and relative valuations
compared to historical norms and technical factors, such as supply and demand,
89
within that sector. A manager will usually compare her portfolio to the
weightings of the benchmark index that she is being compared to on a
performance basis.

Security Selection for Bonds

Security selection for bonds involves fundamental and credit analysis

and quantitative valuation techniques at the individual security level.
Fundamental analysis of a bond considers the nature of the security and the
potential cash flows attached to it. Credit analysis evaluates the likelihood that
the payments will be received as contemplated, or at all. Modern quantitative
techniques use statistical analysis and advanced mathematical techniques to
attach values to the cash flows and assess the probabilities inherent in their
nature.

Sources

Singh Preeti (2006). Investment Management. 14th Edition: Himalaya

Publishing House.

Avadhani, V.A. (2003). Securities Analysis and Portfolio Management. 6th

Edition: Himalaya Publishing House.

Mayo B. Herbert (2000). Investments. 6th Edition: Harcourt College Publishers.

Jones P. Charles (2002). Investments. 8th Edition: John Wiley and Sons Inc.

Chandra Prasanna (2004). Financial Management. 6th Edition: Tata McGraw

Hill.

Bhalla, V.K. (2005). Investment Management. 12 th Edition: S Chand.

90
Questions

1. How is a fundamental analysis useful to a prospective investor?

2. What is the meaning of company analysis? What financial statements in

your opinion are helpful in understanding the company’s prospects?

3. Is intrinsic value of a share important? How would you calculate it?

4. The three important elements of investments are risk return and timing.
Elaborate.

5. What are the basic valuation models of bonds? How do you calculate
‘yield’ on bonds?

6. Find the present value of the bond when par value is Rs 100, coupon
rate is 15% and current market price is Rs 90. The bond has a six year
maturity value and has a premium of 10%.

7. If a bond has a market price of Rs 83 and a par value of Rs 100. It has an

interest rate of 13% and matures after five years. What rate of return
would an investor receive if he buys this bond and holds it till maturity?

91
92
 UNIT - III

FUTURES AND OPTIONS

Objectives of the study:

The objectives of this unit are to help one understand, in general

 The general frame work of Futures and Options as a financial derivative

 Importance and working of Futures and Options in the financial market

Syllabus
Options: Types - Determinants of Option value - Option Position and Strategies
-Option pricing. Futures: Stock Index futures - Portfolio strategies using futures
-Futures on fixed income securities - Futures on long term Securities.

CONTENTS DESIGN:
3.1. Introduction.
3.2 Options-Meaning
Reasons for using Options
Working of options
Types of Options
Pricing of Options
Factors affecting the Option premium
Option zones
Assumptions and Notations
Upper and Lower boundaries for option prices
Greeks
Trading Strategies
Bull Market Strategies
Bear Market Strategies

93
 3.7.3 Volatile Market Strategies
3.7.4. Stable Market Strategies
3.8 .Futures Contract - Meaning
Futures Characteristics
Contract specification for Index futures contracts.
Eligibility Criteria for introducing futures option contracts on Index.
Importance of index futures.
Security Futures
Cataract specifications for single stock futures.
Eligibility criteria for introducing futures option contracts on stocks.
Security Futures Vs stock options.
Trading system
The players
Order matching rules.
Order conditions
Session timings
Price bands.
Limited trading membership
Futures strategies
Advantages of Future Index
Future on fixed income securities.
Hedging by fixed income founds.
Valuations of index futures.
Futures of bonds.
Security futures risks.
Some technical terms.
Activities
Self Analyzing questions.
References.
94
3.1. INTRODUCTION

TRADING in stock index futures contracts was introduced by the

Kansas City Board of Trade on February 24, 1982.In April 1982, the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange (CME) began trading in futures contract based on the
Standard and Poor's Index of 500 common stocks. The introduction of both
contracts was successful, especially the S&P 500 futures contract, adopted by
most institutional investors.

BSE created history on June 9th, 2000 by launching the first Exchange
traded Index Derivative Contract i.e. futures on the capital market benchmark
index - the BSE Sensex. The inauguration of trading was done by Prof. J.R.
Varma, member of SEBI and chairman of the committee responsible for
formulation of risk containment measures for the Derivatives market. The first
historical trade of 5 contracts of June series was done on June 9, 2000 at 9:55:03
a.m. between M/s Kaji & Maulik Securities Pvt. Ltd. and M/s Emkay Share &
stock Brokers Ltd. at the rate of 4755.

In the sequence of product innovation, the exchange commenced trading

in Index Options on Sensex on June 1, 2001. Stock options were introduced on
31 stocks on July 9, 2001 and single stock futures were launched on November
9th 2002.

September 13, 2004 marked another milestone in the history of Indian

Capital Markets, the day on which the Bombay Stock Exchange launched
Weekly Options, a unique product unparallel in derivatives markets, both
domestic and international. BSE permitted trading in weekly contracts in options
in the shares of four leading companies namely Reliance, Satyam, State Bank of
India, and Tisco in addition to the flagship index-Sensex.

95
OPTIONS-MEANING

An option is a contract whereby one party (the holder or buyer) has the
right, but not the obligation, to exercise the contract (the option) on or before a
future date (the exercise date or expiry). The other party (the writer or seller) has
the obligation to honour the specified feature of the contract. Since the option
gives the buyer a right and the seller an obligation, the buyer has received
something of value. The amount the buyer pays the seller for the option is called
the option premium.

Because this is a security whose value is determined by an underlying

asset, it is classified as a derivative. The idea behind an option is present in
everyday situations.

For example, you discover a house that you'd love to purchase.

Unfortunately, you won't have the cash to buy it for another three months. You
talk to the owner and negotiate a deal that gives you an option to buy the house
in three months for a price of Rs.200, 000. The owner agrees, but for this option,
you pay a price of Rs.3, 000.

Now, consider two theoretical situations that might arise:

1. It's discovered that the house is actually the true birthplace of a

great man. As a result, the market value of the house
skyrockets to Rs.1 crore. Because the owner sold you the
option, he is obligated to sell you the house for Rs.200, 000. In
the end, you stand to make a profit of Rs.97, 97,000 (Rs.1
Crore – Rs.200, 000 – Rs.3, 000).
2. While touring the house, you discover not only that the walls
are chock-full of asbestos, but also that a ghost haunts the

96
 master bedroom; furthermore, a family of super-intelligent rats
have built a fortress in the basement. Though you originally
thought you had found the house of your dreams, you now
consider it worthless. On the upside, because you bought an
option, you are under no obligation to go through with the sale.
Of course, you still lose the Rs.3, 000 price of the option.

This example demonstrates two very important points. First, when you
buy an option, you have a right but not an obligation to do something. You can
always let the expiration date go by, at which point the option becomes
worthless. If this happens, you lose 100% of your investment, which is the
money you used to pay for the option. Second, an option is merely a contract
that deals with an underlying asset. For this reason, options are called
derivatives, which mean an option derives its value from something else. In our
example, the house is the underlying asset. Most of the time, the underlying
asset is a stock or an Index.

REASON FOR USING OPTIONS .

Two main reasons why an investor would use options are:

a. Speculation

Speculation is the betting on the movement of a security. The advantage

of options is that one isn’t limited to making a profit only when the market goes
up. Because of the versatility of options, one can also make money when the
market goes down or even sideways.

Speculation is the territory in which the big money is made - and lost.
The use of options for making big money or less is the reason why they have the
97
 reputation of being risky. This is because when one buys an option; one has to
be correct in determining not only the direction of the stock's movement, but
also the magnitude and the timing of this movement. To succeed, one must
correctly predict whether a stock will go up or down, and has to be right about
how much the price will change as well as the time frame it will take for all this
to happen commissions must also be taken into account.

b. Hedging

The other function of options is hedging. Think of this as an insurance

policy. Just as one insures one’s house or car, options can be used to insure the
investments against a downturn. By using options, one would be able to restrict
one’s downslide while enjoying the full upside in a cost-effective way.

WORKING OF OPTIONS

In order to understand the working of options, an assumed firm by the

name Justus Company, is taken Let's say that on May 1, the stock price of
Justus Co. was Rs.75 and the premium (cost) was Rs.3.15 for a July 78 Call,
which indicated that the expiration was the third Friday of July and the strike
price was Rs.78. The total price of the contract was Rs.3.15 x 100 = Rs.315. In
reality, you'd also have to take commissions into account, but we'll ignore them
for this example.

Remember, a stock option contract is the option to buy 100 shares; that's
why you must multiply the contract by 100 to get the total price. The strike price
of Rs. 78 means that the stock price must rise above Rs.78 before the call option
is worth anything; furthermore, because the contract is Rs.3.70 per share, the
break-even price would beRs.81.

98
 When the stock price is Rs.67, it's less than the Rs.70 strike price, so the
option is worthless. But don't forget that you've paid Rs.315 for the option, so
you are currently down by this amount.

Three weeks later the stock price is Rs.84. The options contract has
increased along with the stock price and is now worth Rs.6 x 100 = Rs.600.
Subtract what you paid for the contract, and your profit is (Rs.3) x 100 = Rs.300.
You almost doubled the money in just three weeks! You could sell your options,
which are called "closing your position," and take your profits - unless, of
course, you think the stock price will continue to rise. For the sake of this
example, let's say we let it ride. By the expiration date, the price drops to Rs.60.
Because this is less than our Rs.78 strike price and there is no time left, the
option contract is worthless. We are now down to the original investment of
Rs.300. Putting it in the form of a table: here is what happened to our option
investment:

Date May 1 May 21 Expiry Date

Stock Price Rs.78 Rs.84 Rs.60

Option Price Rs.3 Rs.6 worthless

Contract Value Rs.300 Rs.600 Rs.0

Paper Gain/Loss Rs.0 Rs.300 -Rs.300

The price swing for the length of this contract from high to low was
Rs.600, which would have given us over double our original investment.

This is leverage in action.

99
Option frameworks

 The buyer pays the price (premium) to the seller (writer).The buyer
assumes a long position and the writer a corresponding short position.
Thus the writer of a call option is "short a call" and has the obligation to
sell to the holder, who is "long of a call option" and who has the right to
buy. The writer of a put option is "on the short side of the position", and
has the obligation to buy from the taker of the put option, who is "long a
put".

 The option style determines when the buyer may exercise the option which
will affect the valuation. Generally the contract will either be American
style - which allows exercise up to the expiry date - or European style -
where exercise is only allowed on the expiry date - or Bermudian style -
where exercise is allowed on several, specific dates up to the expiry date.
European contracts are easier to value.

 Buyers and sellers of exchange-traded options do not usually interact

directly - the futures and options exchange acts as intermediary. The seller
guarantees the exchange to fulfill his obligation if the buyer chooses to
execute.

 The risk for the option holder is limited: he cannot lose more than the
premium paid as he can "abandon the option". His potential gain with a
call option is theoretically unlimited;

 The maximum loss for the writer of a put option is equal to the strike price.
In general, the risk for the writer of a call option is unlimited. However, an
option writer who owns the underlying instrument has created a covered
position; he can always meet his obligations by using the actual

100
 underlying. Where the seller does not own the underlying on which he has
written the option, he is called a "naked writer", and has created a "naked
position".

 Options can be in-the-money, at-the-money or out-of-the-money. The "in-

the-money" option has a positive intrinsic value, options in "at-the-money"
or "out-of-the-money" have an intrinsic value of zero. Additional to the
intrinsic value an option has a time value, which decreases when the option
is closer to its expiry date.

TYPES OF OPTIONS

There are two main types of options:

a. American options can be exercised at any time between the date

of purchase and the expiration date.
b. European options can only be exercised at the end of their lives.
c. Long-Term Options are options with holding times of one, two
or multiple years, which may be more appealing for long-term
investors, which are called long-term equity anticipation
securities (LEAPS). By providing opportunities to control and
manage risk or even to speculate, LEAPS are virtually identical
to regular options. LEAPS, however, provide these opportunities
for much longer periods of time. Although they are not available
on all stocks, LEAPS are available on most widely held issues.
d. Real option is a choice that an investor has when investing in the
real economy - in the production of goods or services, rather than
in financial contracts – which may be something as simple as the
opportunity to expand production, or to change production inputs.
They are an increasingly influential tool in corporate finance with
typically difficult or impossible to trade

101
 e. Traded options (also called "Exchange-Traded Options" or
"Listed Options") are Exchange traded derivatives which have:
standardized contracts; quick systematic pricing; and are settled
through a clearing house (ensuring fulfillment.) These include:
stock options; bond options; interest rate options; and swaption.
f. Vanilla options are 'simple', well understood and traded options,
whereas an exotic option is more complex, or less easily
understood and non-standard in nature. Asian options, look back
options, barrier options are considered to be exotic, especially if
the underlying instrument is more complex than simple equity or
debt.
g. Employee stock options are issued by a company to its
employees as compensation.

PRICING OF OPTIONS

Factors affecting the Option premium:

Options are used as risk management tools and the valuation or pricing
of the instruments is a careful balance of market factors.
There are four major factors affecting the Option premium:
 Price of Underlying
 Time to Expiry
 Exercise Price Time to Maturity
 Volatility of the Underlying
And Two less important factors:
 Short – Term Interest Rates
 Dividends

102
a. The Intrinsic Value of an Option

The intrinsic value of an option is defined as the amount by which an

option is in-the immediate exercise value of the option when the underlying
position is marked-to-market.
For a call option: Intrinsic Value = Spot Price – Strike Price
For a put option: Intrinsic Value = Strike Price – Spot Price

The intrinsic value of an option must be positive or zero. It cannot be

negative. For a call option, the strike price must be less than the price of the
underlying asset for the call to have an intrinsic value greater than 0. For a put
option, the strike price must be greater than the underlying asset price for it to
have intrinsic value.

Comparing two calls with the same underlying asset; the higher the exercise price
of a call, the lower its premium.

Call

103
 Comparing two puts with the same underlying asset; the higher the
exercise price of a put, the higher its premium.

Put

b. Price of Underlying

The premium is affected by the price movements in the underlying

instrument. For Call options the right to buy the underlying at a fixed strike
price – as the underlying price raises so does its premium. As the underlying
price falls so does the cost of the option premium. For put options – the right to
sell the underlying at a fixed strike price as the underlying price rises, the
premium falls; as the underlying price decreases the premium cost raises.

Call options become more valuable as the stock price increases and less
valuable as the strike price increases. For a put option, the payoff on exercise is
the amount by which the strike price exceeds the stock price. Put options,

104
therefore, behave in the opposite way to call options. They become less valuable
as the stock price increases and more valuable as the strike price increases.

The price of underlying asset

The option premium will be higher when the price of the underlying asset is
higher.

Call

The option premium will be lower when the price of the underlying asset
is lower .

105
 Put

The more the options is in-the-money or out-of-the-money, the lower is

its time value; i.e. the option premium is close to the intrinsic value of the
option.

c. The Time Value of an Option

Generally, the longer the time remaining until an option’s expiration, the
higher will be its premium, because the longer an option’s lifetimes, greater is
the possibility that the underlying share price might move so as to make the
option in-the-money. All other factors affecting an option’s price remaining the
same, the time value portion of an option’s premium will decrease with the
passage of time.

Both put and call American options become more valuable as the time to
expiration increases. To see this, consider two options that differ only with
respect to the expiration date. The owner of the long-life option has all the
exercise opportunities open to that of the owner of the short-life on- and more.

106
 The long-life option must, therefore, always be worth at least as much
as the short-life option.

European put and call options do not necessarily become more

valuable as the time to expiration increases. This is because the owner of a
long-life European option does not have all the exercise opportunities open to
the owner of a short-life European option. The owner of the long-life
European option can exercise only at the maturity of that option. Consider two
European call options on a stock, one with an expiration date in one month
and the other with an expiration date in two months. Suppose that a very large
dividend is expected in six weeks. The dividend will cause the stock price to
decline. It is possible that this will lead to the short-life option being worth
more than the long-life option.

The value of an option will be lower at the near closer of the expiration
date, when all other factors remaining equal. The loss of time value is faster as
the expiration date approaches.

107
d. Volatility

Volatility is the tendency of the underlying security’s market price to

fluctuate either up or down. It reflects a price change’s magnitude; it does not
imply a bias towards price movement in one direction or the other. Thus, it is a
major factor in determining an option’s premium. The higher the volatility of
the underlying stock, the higher the premium because there is a greater
possibility that the option will move in-the-money. Generally, as the volatility of
an under-lying stock increases, the premiums of both calls and puts overlying
that stock increase, and vice versa.

Higher volatility = Higher premium

Lower volatility = Lower premium

The volatility of a stock price, ó is defined so that ó is the

Standard deviation of the return on the stock in a short length of time t. It is a
measure of how uncertain we are about future stock price movements. As
volatility increases, the chance that, the stock will do very well or very poorly
increases. For the owner of a stock. these two outcomes tend to offset each other.
However, this is not so for the owner of a call or put.

The owner of a call benefits from price increases but bas limited
downslide risk in the event of price decreases because the most that the owner
can lose is the price of the option. Similarly, the owner of a put benefits from
price decreases but has limited downslide risk in the event of price increases.
The value of both calls and puts, therefore, increases as volatility increase.

The higher the price volatility of the underlying asset, the higher the
likelihood that the option will end up in-the-money; therefore, the higher the
premium.
108
 Call

The higher the price volatility of the underlying asset, the higher the
likelihood that the option will end up out-of-the-money; therefore, the lower the
premium.

Put

109
e. Interest rates

In general interest rates have the least influence on options and equate
approximately to the cost of carry of a futures contract. If the size of the options
contract is very large, then this factor may take on some importance. All other
factors being equal as interest rates rise, premium costs fall and vice versa. The
relationship can be thought of as an opportunity cost. In order to buy an option,
the buyer must either borrow funds or use funds on deposit. Either way the
buyer incurs an interest rate cost. If interest rates are rising, then the opportunity
cost of buying options increases and to compensate the buyer premium costs
fall. Why should the buyer be compensated? Because the option writer
receiving the premium can place the funds on deposit and receive more interest
than was previously anticipated. The situation is reversed when interest rates
fall -premiums rise. This time it is the writer who needs to be compensated.

As interest rates in the economy increases, the expected growth rate of the
stock price tends to increase and the present value of any future cash flows
received by the holder of the option decreases. These two effects tend to
decrease the value of a put option and hence, put option prices decline as the
risk-free interest rate increases. In the case of calls, the first effect tends to
increase the price and the second effect tends to decrease it. It can be shown that
the first effect always dominates the second effect; that the price of a call
always increases as the risk-free interest rate increases.

The higher the "riskless interest rate", the higher the call premium. The
higher the "riskless interest rate", the lower the put premium

110
f. Dividends

Dividends have the effect of reducing the stock price on the ex-dividend
date. The value of a call option is negatively related to the size of any
anticipated dividend and the value of a put option is positively related to the size
of any anticipated dividend.
option zones
The value of the stock option has three different zones, as shown below:
1. Out of the Money : Where the stock price is below the exercise price.
2. At the Money : Where it is close to or at the exercise price.
3. In the Money: Where the stock price is above the exercise price.
These zones are depicted in the chart below:

111
 Say the exercise price is Rs.60. If the stock price is below 60, there is no
economic value. There is only time value; if stock price starts above Rs.60 it
will have been economic value and time value. As seen from the chart time
value is maximum, when the exercise price and stock price are the same but is
lower below the exercise price or above it. If the actual price is lower than the
exercise price there is less change of profit on the call. If the actual price is
above the exercise price, then there is a chance of profit, and there is less reason
to pay a premium over the economic value (intrinsic value)

3.6.3. Assumptions And Notation

Some relationships have been derived between option price that do not
require any assumptions about volatility and the probabilistic behavior of stock
prices For this purposes it is, therefore, reasonable to assume that there are no
arbitrage opportunities.
The following notations have been used: .
So :current stock price
ST: stock price at time T
X: strike price of option
T: time of expiration of option
r: risk-free rate of interest for maturity T (continuously
compounded)
C: value of American call option to buy one share
P: value of American put option to sell one share
c: value of European all option to buy one share
p: value of European put option to sell one share

112
 It should be noted that r is the nominal rate of interest, not the real rate of
interest and assumed that r > O. Otherwise, a risk-free investment would provide
no advantages over cash.

3.6.4.Upper And Lower Bounds For Option Prices

If the option price is above the upper bound or below the lower bound,
there are profitable opportunities for arbitrageurs.

Upper Bounds:

An American or European call option gives the holder the right to buy
one share of a stock for a certain price. No matter what happens, the option can
never be worth more than the stock. Hence, the stock price is an upper bound to
the option price:
c < So and C < So
If these relationships do not hold, an arbitrageur can easily make a risk
less profit by buying the stock and selling the call option.

An American or European put option gives the holder the right to sell
one share of a stock for X. No matter how low the stock price becomes, the
option can never be worth more than X. Hence
P< X and P < X
For European put options, we know that at time T the option will not be
worth more than X. It follows that its value today cannot be more than the
present value of X:
P < Xe- rT
If this were not true, an arbitrageur could make a risk less profit by
selling the option and investing the proceeds of the sale at the risk-free Interest
rate.

113
Lower Bound for European Calls on Non-Dividend-Paying Stocks

A lower bound for the price of a European call option on a non-

dividend-paying stock is So -X- rT

First illustrated with a numerical example and then with a more formal
argument.
Suppose that So = Rs20, X = Rs18, r = 10% per annum, and T = 1 year.
In this case,
So -Xe- rT = 20 -18e-0-i = 3.71
or Rs3.71. Consider the situation where the European call price is Rs3.00,
which is less than the theoretical minimum of Rs3.71. An arbitrageur can buy
the call and short the stock. This provides a cash inflow of Rs20.00 Rs3.00 =
Rs17.00. If invested for one year at 10% per annum, the Rs17.00 grows to
Rs18.79. At the end of the year, the option expires. If the stock price is greater
than Rs18, the arbitrageur exercises the option, closes out the short position, and
makes a profit of
Rs18.79 -Rs18.00 = Rs0.79
If the stock price is less than Rs18, the stock is bought in the .market and
the short (X) position is closed out. The arbitrageur then makes an even greater
profit. For example, if the stock price is Rs17, the arbitrageur's profit is
Rs18.79 -Rs17.00 = l. 79
For a more formal argument, we consider the following two portfolios:
Portfolio A: one European call option plus an amount of cash equal to
Xe-
rT

Portfolio B: one share )

In portfolio A, if the cash is invested at the risk-free interest rate, it will
grow to X at time T. If ST > X, the call option is exercised at time T and portfolio

114
A is worth ST. If ST < X, the call option expires worthless and the portfolio is
worth X. Hence, at time T portfolio A is worth
max(ST, X)
Portfolio B is worth ST at time T. Hence, portfolio A is always worth at
least as much and is sometimes worth more than, portfolio B at time T. It
follows that it must be , worth at least as much as portfolio B today.
Hence, C + X e-rT > So
or
C > So -Xe-rT.
Because the worst that can happen to a call option is that it expires
worthless, its value must be positive. This means that c > 0 and, therefore,
C+ Xe-rT > So
or
C > max (So - Xe-rT, 0)
Lower Bound for European Puts on Non-Dividend-Paying Stocks

For a European put option on a non-dividend-paying stock, a lower

bound for the price is
Xe –rT - So
Suppose that So = Rs37, X = Rs40, r = 5% per annum, and T = 0.5 year.
In this case
Xe-rT -So = 4Oe-o.osxo.s -37 = 2.01
Rs2.01. Consider the situation where the European put price is
Rs1.00, which is less In the theoretical minimum of Rs2.01. An arbitrageur
can borrow Rs38.00 for six months to buy both the put and the stock. At the
end of the six months, the arbitrageur will be required to repay 38-o.osxo.s =
Rs38.96. If the stock price is below Rs40.00, : arbitrageur exercises the
option to sell the stock for Rs40.00, repays the loan, and makes a profit of
Rs.40.00 –Rs.38.96 = Rs1.04

115
 If the stock price is greater than Rs40.00, the arbitrageur discards the
option, sells and repays the loan for an even greater profit. For example, if the
stock price is . 2.00, the arbitrageur's profit is
Rs.42.00 –Rs.38.9.6 = Rs3.04
For a more formal argument, we consider the following two portfolios:

Portfolio C: one European put option plus one share

Portfolio D: an amount of cash equal to Xe-rT

If ST < X, the option in portfolio C is exercised at time T, and the

portfolio becomes worth X. If ST > X, the put option expires worthless, and the
portfolio is worth ST at time T. Hence portfolio C is worth max(ST. X) at time
T. Assuming that the cash is invested at the risk-free interest rate, portfolio D is
worth X at time T. Hence, portfolio C is always worth as much as, and is
sometimes worth more than, portfolio D at time T. It follows that in the absence
of arbitrage opportunities. portfolio C must be worth at least as much as
portfolio D today. Hence
p + So > Xe-rT
or
p > Xe-rT -So
Because the worst that can happen to a put option is that it expires
worthless, value must be non-negative. This means that
p > max (Xe-rT -So. 0)

116
 Summary - Factors affecting the option premium

Call premium Put premium

Longer time to expiration + +
Higher price of underlying + -
Higher volatility of underlying + +
Higher exercise price - +
Higher interest rate + -
Dividend - +

Greeks

The more sophisticated tools used to measure the potential variations of

options premiums are as follows:
 Delta
 Gamma
 Vega
 Rho
 Delta
Delta

Delta is the measure of an option's sensitivity to changes in the price of

the underlying asset. Therefore, it is the degree to which an option price will
move given a change in the underlying stock or index price, all else being
equal.
Change in option premium
Delta =
Change in underlying price

117
 For example, an option with a delta of 0.5 will move Rs 5 for every
change of Rs 10 in the underlying stock or index.

Illustration:

A trader is considering buying a Call option on a futures contract, which

has a price of As 19. The premium for the Call option with a strike price of As
19 is 0.80. The delta for this option is +0.5. This means that if the price of the
underlying futures contract rises to As 20 -a rise of Rs.1 -then the premium will
increase by 0.5 x 1.00 = 0.50. The new option premium will be 0.80 + 0.50 =
As 1.30.

Far out-of-the-money calls will have a delta very close to zero, as the
change in underlying price is not likely to make them valuable or cheap. At-the-
money call would have a delta of 0.5 and a deeply in-the-money call would
have a delta close to 1.

While Call deltas are positive, Put deltas are negative, reflecting the fact
that the put option price and the underlying stock price are inversely related.
This is because if one buys a put his view is bearish and expects the stock price
to go down. However, if the stock price moves up it is contrary to his view
therefore, the value of the option decreases. The put delta equals the call delta
minus 1.

It may be noted that if delta of one’s position is positive, he desires the

underlying asset to rise in price. On the contrary, if delta is negative, he wants
the underlying asset's price to fall.

Uses: The knowledge of delta is of vital importance for option traders because
this parameter is heavily used in margining and risk management strategies.
118
The delta is often called the hedge ratio. e.g. if you have a portfolio of 'n' shares
of a stock then 'n' divided by the delta gives you the number of calls you would
need to be short (i.e. need to write) to create a riskless hedge -i.e. a portfolio
which would be worth the same whether the stock price rose by a very small
amount or fell by a very small amount.

In such a "delta neutral" portfolio any gain in the value of the shares
held due to a rise in the share price would be exactly offset by a loss on the
value of the calls written, and vice versa.

Note that as the delta changes with the stock price and time to expiration
the number of shares would need to be continually adjusted to maintain the
hedge. How quickly the delta changes with the stock price is given by gamma,
which we shall learn subsequently.

Gamma

This is the rate at which the delta value of an option increases or

decreases as a result of a move in the price of the underlying instrument.
Change in an option delta
Gamma =
Change in underlying price

For example, if a Call option has a delta of 0.50 and a gamma of 0.05,
then a rise of +/- 1 in the underlying means the delta will move to 0.55 for a
price rise and 0.45 for a price fall. Gamma is rather like the rate of change in
the speed of a car -its acceleration -in moving from a standstill, up to its
cruising speed, and braking back to a standstill. Gamma is greatest for an A TM
(at-the- money) option (cruising) and falls to zero as an option moves deeply
ITM (in-the-money ) and OTM (out-of-the-money) (standstill).

119
 If you are hedging a portfolio using the delta-hedge technique described
under "Delta", then you will want to keep gamma as small as possible as the
smaller it is the less often you will have to adjust the hedge to maintain a delta
neutral position. If gamma is too large a small change in stock price could wreck
your hedge. Adjusting gamma, however, can be tricky and is generally done
using options --unlike delta, it can't be done by buying or selling the underlying
asset as the gamma of the underlying asset is, by definition, always zero so more
or less of it won't affect the gamma of the total portfolio.

Theta

It is a measure of an option's sensitivity to time decay. Theta is the

change in option price given a one-day decrease in time to expiration. It is a
measure of time decay (or time shrunk). Theta is generally used to gain an
idea of how time decay is affecting your portfolio.
Change in an option premium
Theta =
Change in time to expiry
Theta is usually negative for an option as with a decrease in time, the
option value decreases. This is due to the fact that the uncertainty element in the
price decreases.

Assume an option has a premium of 3 and a theta of 0.06. After one

day it will decline to 2.94, the second day to 2.88 and so on. Naturally other
factors, such as changes in value of the underlying stock will alter the
premium. Theta is only concerned with the time value. Unfortunately, we
cannot predict with accuracy the change's in stock market's value, but we can
measure exactly the time remaining until expiration.

120
Vega

This is a measure of the sensitivity of an option price to changes in

market volatility. It is the change of an option premium for a given change -
typically 1 % -in the underlying volatility.
Change in an option premium
Vega =
Change in volatility

If for example, XYZ stock has a volatility factor of 30% and the
current premium is 3, a Vega of .08 would indicate that the premium would
increase to 3.08 if the volatility factor increased by 1 % to 31 %. As the stock
becomes more volatile the changes in premium will increase in the same
proportion. Vega measures the sensitivity of the premium to these changes in
volatility.

What practical use is the Vega to a trader? If a trader maintains a delta

neutral position, then it is possible to trade options purely in terms of volatility
-the trader is not exposed to changes in underlying prices. "

Rho

Rho measures the change in an option's price per unit increase -

typically 1 % -in the cost of funding the underlying.

Change in an option premium

Rho =
Change in cost of funding underlying

121
Example:

Assume the value of Rho is 14.10. If the risk free interest rates go up by
1 % the price of the option will move by Rs 0.14109. To put this in another way:
if the risk-free interest rate changes by a small amount, then the option value
should change by 14.10 times that amount.

For example, if the risk-free interest rate increased by 0.01 (from 10%
to 11 %), the option value would change by 14.10*0.01 = 0.14. For a put
option, inverse relationship exists. If the interest rate goes up the option value
decreases and therefore, Rho for a put option is negative. In general Rho tends
to be small except for long-dated options.

TRADING STRATEGIES
3.7.1. Bull Market Strategies
Call in a Bullish Strategy:
An investor with a bullish market outlook should buy call option. It one
expects the market price of the underlying asset to rise, then, he would rather
have the right to purchases at a specified price and sell later at a higher price
than have the obligation to deliver later at a higher price.

122
 The investor’s profit potential on buying a call option is unlimited. His
profit is the market price less the exercise price less the premium. The increase
in price of the underlying increases the investor’s profit.

The investor's potential loss is limited. Even if the market takes a drastic
decline in price levels, the holder of a call is under no obligation to exercise the
option and let the option expire worthless. The investor breaks even when the
market price equals the exercise price plus the premium.

An increase in volatility will increase the value of call and thereby

increases the return. Because of the increased likelihood that the option will
become in- the-money, an increase in the underlying volatility (before
expiration), will increase the value of a long options position.

123
Puts in a Bullish Strategy

An investor with a bullish market outlook can also go short on a Put

option. Basically, an investor anticipating a bull market could write put options.
If the market price increases and puts become out-of-the-money, investors with
long put positions will let their options expire worthless.

By writing Puts, profit potential is limited. A Put writer profits when the
price of the underlying asset increases and the option expires worthless. The
maximum profit is limited to the premium received.

However, the potential loss is unlimited. Because a short put position

holder has an obligation to purchase if exercised. He will be exposed to
potentially large losses if the market moves against his position and declines.

The break-even point occurs when the market price equals the exercise
price: minus the premium. At any price less than the exercise price minus the
premium, the investor loses money on the transaction. At higher prices, his
option is profitable.

An increase in volatility will increase the value of your put and

decrease your return. As an option writer, the higher price you will be forced to
pay in order to buy back the option at a later date, lower is the return.
Bullish Call Spread Strategies

A vertical call spread is the simultaneous purchase and sale of identical

call options but with different exercise prices.

To "buy a call spread" is to purchase a call with a lower exercise price

and to write a call with a higher exercise price. The trader pays a net premium
for the position.

124
 To "sell a call spread" is the opposite, here the trader buys a call with a
higher exercise price and writes a call with a lower exercise price, receiving a
net premium for the position.

An investor with a bullish market outlook should buy a call spread.

The "Bull Call Spread" allows the investor to participate to a limited extent
in a bull market, while at the same time limiting risk exposure.

To put on a bull spread, the trader needs to buy the lower strike call and
sell the higher strike call. The combination of these two options will result in a
bought spread. The cost of Putting on this position will be the difference
between the premium paid for the low strike call and the premium received for
the high strike call.

The investor's profit potential is limited. When both calls are in-the-
money, both will be exercised and the maximum profit will be realised. The
investor delivers on his short call and receives a higher price than he is paid for
receiving delivery on his long call.

The investor’s potential loss is limited. At the most, the investor can lose
is the net premium. He pays a higher premium for the lower exercise price call

125
than he receives for writing the higher exercise price call than he receives for
writing the higher exercise price call.

The investor breaks even when the market price equals the lower
exercise price plus the net premium. At the most, an investor can lose is the net
premium paid. To recover the premium, the market price must be as great as the
lower exercise price plus the net premium.

An example of a Bullish call spread:

Let's assume that the cash price of a scrip is Rs. 100 and one bought a
November call option with a strike price of Rs. 90 and paid a premium of Rs.
14. At the same time he sold another November call option on a scrip with a
strike price of Rs.110 and received a premium of Rs.4. Here, he is buying a
lower strike price option and selling a higher strike price option. This would
result in a net outflow of Rs.10 at the time of establishing the spread.

Now let us look at the fundamental reason for this position. Since this is
a bullish strategy, the first position established in the spread is the long lower
strike price call option with unlimited profit potential. At the same time to
reduce the cost of purchase of the long position a short position at a higher call
strike price is established. While this not only reduces the outflow in terms of
premium but also his profit potential and at the sometime the risk is limited.
Based on the above figures the maximum profit, maximum loss and breakeven
point of this spread would be as follows:
Maximum profit = Higher strike price -Lower strike price -Net premium paid
= 110-90-10
= 10
Maximum Loss = Lower strike premium -Higher strike premium
= 14-4 = 10
126
Breakeven Price = Lower strike price + Net premium paid
= 90 + 10 = 100
Bullish Put Spread Strategies
A vertical Put spread is the simultaneous purchase and sale of identical
Put options but with different exercise prices.

To "buy a put spread" is to purchase a Put with a higher exercise price

and to write a Put with a lower exercise price. The trader pays a net premium for
the position.

To "sell a put spread" is the opposite: the trader buys a Put with a lower
exercise price and writes a put with a higher exercise price, receiving a net
premium for the position.

An investor with a bullish market outlook should sell a Put spread.

The "vertical bull put spread" allows the investor to participate to a

limited extent in a bull market, while at the same time limiting risk exposure.

To put on a bull spread can be created by buying the lower strike and
selling the higher strike of either calls or put. The difference between the
premiums paid and received makes up one leg of the spread.

127
 The investor's profit potential is limited. When the market price reaches
or exceeds the higher exercise price, both options will be out-of-the-money and
will expire worthless. The trader will realize his maximum profit, the net
premium.

The investor's potential loss is also limited. If the market falls, the
options will be in-the-money. The puts will offset one another, but at different
exercise prices.

The investor breaks-even when the market price equals the lower
exercise price less the n premium. The investor achieves maximum profit i.e.
the premium received; when the mark price moves up beyond the higher
exercise price (both puts are then worthless).

An example of a bullish put spread.

Lets us assume that the cash price of the scrip is Rs.100. One now buys a
November put option scrip with a strike price of Rs.90 at a premium of Rs.5 and
sells a put option with a strike price Rs.110 at a premium of Rs.15.

The first position is a short put at a higher strike price. This has resulted in
some inflow in terms of premium. But here the trader is worried about risk and
so caps his risk by buying another put option at the lower strike price. As such,
a part of the premium received goes off and the ultimate position has limited
risk and limited profit potential. Based on the above figures the maximum
profit, maximum loss and breakeven point of this spread would be as follows:

Maximum profit = Net option premium income or net credit

= 15-5= 10

128
 Maximum loss = Higher strike price -Lower strike price -Net premium
received
= 110-90-10= 10
Breakeven Price = Higher Strike price -Net premium income
= 110-10= 100
3.7.2. Bear Market Strategies

Puts in a Bearish Strategy

When one purchases a put he is long and wants the market to fall. A put
option is a bearish position which will increase in value if the market falls. By
purchasing put options, the trader has the right to choose whether to sell the
underlying asset at the exercise price. In a falling market, this choice is
preferable to being obligated to buy the underlying at a price higher.

An investor's profit potential is practically unlimited. The higher the fall

in price of the underlying asset, higher the profits.

129
 The investor's potential loss is limited. If the price of the underlying asset
rises instead of falling as' the investor has anticipated, he may let the option
expire worthless. At the most, he may lose the premium for the option.

The trader's breakeven point is the exercise price minus the premium.
To profit, the market price must be below the exercise price. Since the trader
has paid a premium he must recover the premium he paid for the option.

An increase in volatility will increase the value of the put and

increases the return. An increase in volatility will make it more likely that the
price of the underlying instrument will move, increasing the value of the
option.

Calls in a Bearish Strategy

Another option for a bearish investor is to go short on a call with the

intent to purchase it back in the future. By selling a call, you have a net short
position and needs to be bought back before expiration and cancel out your
position.

For this an Investor needs to write a call option. If the market price falls,
long call holders will let their out-of-the-money options expire worthless,
because they could purchase the underlying asset at the lower market price.

The investor's profit potential is limited because the trader's maximum

profit is limited to the premium received for writing the option.
Here the loss potential is unlimited because a short call position holder
has an obligation to sell if exercised; he will be exposed to potentially large
losses if the market rises against his position.

130
 The investor breaks even when the market price equals the exercise
price: plus the premium. At any price greater than the exercise price plus the
premium, the trader is losing money. When the market price equals the exercise
price plus the premium, the trader breaks even.

An increase in volatility will increase the value of call and decreases its
return.

When the option writer has to buy back the option in order to cancel out
his position, he will be forced to pay a higher price due to the increased value of
the calls.

Bearish Put Spread Strategies

A vertical put spread is the simultaneous purchase and sale of identical

put options but with different exercise prices.

To "buy a put spread" is to purchase a put with a higher exercise price

and to write a put with a lower exercise price. The trader pays a net premium for
the position.

To "sell a put spread" is the opposite. The trader buys a put with a lower
exercise price and writes put with a higher exercise price, receiving a net
premium for the position.

To put on a bear put spread buy the higher strike put and sell the lower
strike put.
Sell the lower strike and buy the higher strike of either calls or puts to set
up a bear spread.

131
 An investor with a bearish market outlook should: buy a put spread. The
“Bear Put Spread” allows the investor to participate to a limited extent in a bear
marker, while at the same time limiting risk exposure.

The investor's profit potential is limited. When the market price falls to
or below the lower exercise price, both options will be in-the-money and the
trader will realize his maximum profit when he recovers the net premium paid
for the options.

The investor's potential loss is limited. The trader has offsetting

positions at different exercise prices. If the market rises rather than falls, the
options will be out-of-the-money and expire worthless. Since the trader has
paid a net premium.

The investor breaks even when the market price equals the higher
exercise price less the net premium. For the strategy to be profitable, the market
price must fall. When the market price falls to the high exercise price less the net
premium, the trader breaks even. When the market falls beyond this point, the
trader profits.

132
An example of a bearish put spread.

Lets assume that the cash price of the scrip is Rs 100. One buys a
November put option on a scrip with a strike price of Rs 110 at a premium of
Rs 15 and sell a put option with a strike price of Rs 90 at a premium of Rs 5.

In this bearish position the put is taken as long on a higher strike price
put with the outgo of some premium. This position has huge profit potential on
downslide. The trader may recover a part of the premium paid by him by writing
a lower strike price put option. The resulting position is a mildly bearish position
with limited risk and limited profit profile. Though the trader has reduced the
cost of taking a bearish position, he has also capped the profit portential as well.
The maximum profit, maximum loss and breakeven point of this spread would
be as follows:

Maximum profit = Higher strike price option -Lower strike price option -Net
premium paid
= 110-90-10= 10
Maximum loss = Net premium paid
= 15-5= 10
Breakeven Price = Higher strike price -Net premium paid
= 110-10= 100
Bearish Call Spread Strategies

A vertical call spread is the simultaneous purchase and sale of identical

call options but with different exercise prices.

To "buy a cal' spread" is to purchase a call with a lower exercise price

and to write a call with a higher exercise price. The trader pays a net premium
for the position.

133
 To "sell a call spread" is the opposite: the trader buys a call with a higher
exercise price and writes a call with a lower exercise price, receiving a net
premium for the position.

To put on a bear ca" spread you sell the lower strike call and buy the
higher strike call. An investor sells the lower strike and buys the higher
strike of either calls or puts to put on a bear spread.

An investor with a bearish market outlook should: sell a call spread. The
"Bear Call Spread" allows f the investor to participate to a limited extent in a
bear market, while at the same time limiting risk exposure.

The investor's profit potential is limited. When the market price falls to
the lower exercise price, both out-of-the-money options will expire worthless.
The maximum profit that the trader can realize is the net premium: The
premium he receives for the call at the higher exercise price.

Here the investor's potential loss is limited. If the market rises, the
options will offset one another, At any price greater than the high exercise
price, the maximum loss will equal high exercise price minus low exercise price
minus net premium.

134
 The investor breaks even when the market price equals the lower
exercise price plus the net premium. The strategy becomes profitable as the
market price declines. Since the trader is receiving a net premium, the market
price does not have to fall as low as the lower exercise price to breakeven.

An example of a bearish call spread.

Let us assume that the cash price of the scrip is Rs.100. One now buys a
November call option on a scrip with a strike price of Rs.110 at a premium of
Rs.5 and sell a call option with a strike price of Rs.90 at a premium of Rs.15.

In this spread he has to buy a higher strike price call option and sell a
lower strike price option. As the low strike price option is more expensive than
the higher strike price option, it is a net credit strategy. The final position is left
with limited risk and limited profit. The maximum profit, maximum loss and
breakeven point of this spread would be as follows:
Maximum profit = Net premium received
= 15-5= 10
Maximum loss = Higher strike price option -Lower strike price option -Net
premium received
= 110-90-10= 10
Breakeven Price = Lower strike price + Net premium paid
= 90 + 10 = 100

3.7.3 Volatile Market Strategies

Straddles in a Volatile Market Outlook

Volatile market trading strategies are appropriate when the trader believes
the market will move but does not have an opinion on the direction of movement

135
of the market. As long as there is significant movement upwards or downwards,
these strategies offer profit opportunities. A trader need not be bullish or bearish.
He must simply be of the opinion that the market is volatile.

 A straddle is the simultaneous purchase (or sale) of two identical options,

one a call and the other a put.
 To "buy a straddle" is to purchase a call and a put with the same exercise
price and expiration date.
 To "sell a straddle" is the opposite: the trader sells a call and a put with
the same exercise price and expiration date.

A trader, viewing a market as volatile, should buy option straddles. A

"straddle purchase" allows the trader to profit from either a bull market or from
a bear market.

136
 Here the investor's profit potential is unlimited. If the market is volatile,
the trader can profit from an up- or downward movement by exercising the
appropriate option while letting the other option expire worthless. (Bull market,
exercise the call; bear market, the put.)

If the price of the underlying asset remains stable instead of either rising
or falling as the trader anticipated, the maximum he will lose is the premium he
paid for the options.
In this case the trader has long two positions and thus, two breakeven
points. One is for the call which is exercise price plus the premiums paid, and
the other for the put, which is exercise price minus the premiums paid.

Strangles in a Volatile Market Outlook

A strangle is similar to a straddle, except that the call and the put have
different exercise price Usually, both the call and the put are out-of-the-money.

137
 To "buy a strangle" is to purchase a call and a put with the same
expiration date, but differ exercise prices.

To "sell a strangle" is to write a call and a put with the same expiration
date, but different exercise prices.

A trader, viewing a market as volatile, should buy strangles. A

"strangle purchase" allows the trader to profit from either a bull or bear
market. Because the options are typically out-of-the money, the market must
move to a greater degree than a straddle purchase to be profitable.

The trader's profit potential is unlimited. If the market is volatile, the

trader can profit from up or downward movement by exercising the appropriate
option, and letting the other expire worthless. (In a bull market, exercise the call;
in a bear market exercise the put).

The investor's potential loss is limited. Should the price of the underlying
remain stable, the most the trader would lose is the premium he paid for the
options. Here the loss potential is also very minimal because, the more the
options are out-of-the-money, the lesser the premiums.

Here the trader has two long positions and thus, two breakeven
points. One for the call, which breakevens when the market price equal the
high exercise price plus the premium paid, and the put, when the market
price equals the low exercise price minus the premium paid.

The Short Butterfly Call Spread:

Like the volatility positions ,the Short Butterfly position will realize a
profit if the market makes a substantial move. It also uses a combination of puts

138
and calls to achieve its profit/loss profile -but combines them in such a manner
that the maximum profit is limited.

The profit loss profile of a short butterfly spread looks like two short
options coming together at the center Calls.

One’s potential gains or losses are: limited on both the upside and the
downside.

The Call Ratio Back spread

The call ratio back spread is similar in contraction to the short butterfly
call spread. The only difference is that one omits one of the components (or
legs) used to build the short butterfly when constructing a call ratio back
spread.

When putting on a call ratio back spread, one is neutral but want the
market to move in either direction. The call ratio back spread will lose money if
the market sits. The market outlook one would have in putting on this position
would be for a volatile market, with greater probability that the market will
rally.

To put on a call ratio back spread, one sells one of the lower strike and
buy two or more of the higher strike. By selling an expensive lower strike
option and buying two less expensive high strike options, one receives an initial
credit for this position. The maximum loss is then equal to the high strike price
minus the low strike price minus the initial net premium received.

The profit on the downside is limited to the initial net premium received
when setting up the spread. The upside profit is unlimited.

139
 An increase in implied volatility will make the spread more profitable.
Increased volatility increases a long option position's value. The greater
number of long options will cause this spread to become more profitable when
volatility increases.

The Put Ratio Backspread

In combination positions (e.g. bull spreads, butterflies, ratio spreads),

one can use calls or puts to achieve similar, if not identical, profit profiles. Like
its call counterpart, the put ratio backspread combines options to create a
spread which has limited loss potential and a mixed profit potential.

It is created by combining long and short puts in a ratio of 2: 1 or 3: 1.

In a 3: 1 spread, one would buy three puts at a low exercise price and write
one put at a high exercise price. While one may, of course, extend this
position out to six long and two short or nine long and three short, it is
important that one respect the (in this case) 3: 1 ratio in order to maintain the
put ratio backspread profitless profile.

When put on a put ratio backspread one is neutral but wants the market to
move in either direction.

One’s market expectations here would be for a volatile market with a

greater probability that the market will fall than rally.

Unlimited profit would be realized on the downside.

The two long puts offset the short. put and result in practically
unlimited profit on the bearish side of the market. The cost of the long puts is

140
 offset by the premium received for the (more expensive) short put, resulting in
a net premium received.

To put on a put ratio backspread, one buy two or more of the lower
strike and sell one of the higher strike.

One sells the more expensive put and buy two or more of the cheaper put.
One usually receives an initial net premium for putting on this spread. The
Maximum loss is equal to: High strike price -Low strike price -Initial net
premium received.

Stable Market Strategies

Straddles in a Stable Market Outlook

 A straddle is the simultaneous purchase (or sale) of two

identical options, one a call and the other a put.
 To "buy a straddle" is to purchase a call and a put with the same
exercise price and expiration date.
 To "sell a straddle" is the opposite: the trader sells a call and a
put with the same exercise price and expiration date.

A trader, viewing a market as stable, should: write option straddles. A

"straddle sale" allows the trader to profit from writing calls and puts in a stable
market environment.

The investor's profit potential is limited. If the market remains stable,

traders long out-of-the- money calls or puts will let their options expire
worthless. Writers of these options will not called to deliver and will profit from
the sum of the premiums received.

141
 The investor's potential loss is unlimited. Should the price of the
underlying rise or fall, the writer of a call or put would have to deliver,
exposing himself to unlimited loss if he has to deliver on the call and practically
unlimited loss if on the put.

The breakeven points occur when the market price at expiration equals
the exercise price plus the premium and minus the premium. The trader is short
two positions and thus, two breakeven points; One for the call (common
exercise price plus the premiums paid), and one for the put (common exercise
price minus the premiums paid).

Strangles in a Stable Market Outlook

A strangle is similar to a straddle, except that the call and the put have
different exercise prices. Usually, both the call and the put are out-of-the-money.

To "buy a strangle" is to purchase a call and a put with the same

expiration date, but different exercise prices. Usually the call strike price is
higher than the put strike price.

142
 To "sell a strangle" is to write a call and a put with the same expiration
date, but different exercise prices.

A trader, viewing a market as stable, should: write strangles.

A "strangle sale" allows the trader to profit from a stable market.

The investor's profit potential is: limited.

If the market remains stable, investors having out-of-the-money long put

or long call positions will let their options expire worthless and seller of the
options will have limited Profit and will be equal to the premium received.
The investor's potential loss is: unlimited.

If the price of the underlying interest rises or falls instead of remaining

stable as anticipated, he will have to deliver on the call or the put.
The breakeven points occur when market price at expiration equals the
high exercise price the premium and the low exercise price minus the premium.

The trader is short two positions and thus, two breakeven points. One for
the call (high exercise price plus the premiums paid), and one for the put (low
exercise price minus the premiums paid).

143
 The risk is lower with a strangle. Although the seller gives up a
substantial amount of potential profit by selling a strangle rather than a straddle,
he also holds less risk. Notice that the strangle requires more of a price move in
both directions before it begins to lose money.

Long Butterfly Call Spread Strategy: The long butterfly call spread is a
combination of a bull spread and a bear spread, utilizing calls and three different
exercise prices.
A long butterfly call spread involves:
 Buying a call with a low exercise price,
 Writing two calls with a mid-range exercise price,
 Buying a call with a high exercise price.

This spread is put on by purchasing one each of the outside strikes and
selling two of the inside strike. To put on a short butterfly, you do just the
opposite.

144
The investor' s profit potential is limited.
Maximum profit is attained when the market price of the underlying
interest equals the mid-range exercise price (if the exercise prices are
symmetrical).

The investor' s potential loss is limited.

The maximum loss is limited to the net premium paid and is realized
when the market price underlying asset is higher than the high exercise price or
lower than the low exercise price.

The breakeven points occur when the market price at expiration equals
the high exercise minus the premium and the low exercise price plus the
premium. The strategy is profitable when the market price is between the low
exercise price plus the net premium and the high exercise price minus the net
premium.

145
Calendar Spreads

A calendar spread can be created by selling a call option with a certain

strike price and buying a longer-maturity call option with the same strike price.
The longer the maturity of an option the more experience its. A calendar
spread, there fore required an initial investment. The following figure shows
the: profit from a calendar spread at the time when the short-maturity option
expires. (It is assumed that the long-maturity option is sold at this time.) The
trader makes a profit if the stock price at the expiration of the short-maturity
option is close to the strike price of the short-maturity option. However, a loss
is incurred if the stock price is significantly above or significantly below this
strike price.

To understand the profit pattern from a calendar spread, first consider

what happens if the stock price is very low when the short-maturity option
expires. The short-maturity option is worthless, and the value of the long-
maturity option is close to zero. The trader, therefore, incurs a loss that is only a
little less than the cost of setting up the spread initially. Consider next what
happens if the stock price, ST, is very high when the short-maturity option
expires. The short-maturity option costs the trader ST -' X, I and the long-
maturity option is worth a little more than ST -Xl where Xl is the strike price of
die options. Again, the trader has a net loss that is a little less than the cost of
setting up the spread initially. If ST is close to X, the short-maturity option costs
the trader either a small amount or nothing at all. However, the long- maturity
option is still quite valuable. In this case, a significant net profit is made.

146
 Calendar Spread Created using two calls.

In a neutral calendar spread a strike price close to the current stock price
is chosen. A bullish calendar spread involves a higher strike price, whereas a
bearish calendar spread ,involves a lower strike price.

Calendar spread created using two puts.

147
 Calendar spreads can be created with put options as well as call options.
The trader buys long maturity put option and sells a short-maturity put option.
As shown in the above figure, the profit pattern is similar to that obtained from
using calls.

A reverse calendar spread is the opposite trading strategy where the

trader buys a short-maturity option and sells a long-maturity option. A small
profit arises if the stock price at the expiration of the short-maturity option is
well above or well below the strike price of the short-maturity option. However,
a significant loss results if it is close to the strike price.

Diagonal Spreads

Bull, bear, and calendar spreads can all be created from a long position
in one call (put) and a short position in another call (put). In the case of bull and
rear spreads, the calls (puts) have different strike prices and the same expiration
date. In the case of calendar spreads, the calls (puts) have the same strike price
and different expiration dates. In it diagonal spread both the expiration dates
and the strike prices of the call (puts) are different. There are several types of
diagonal spreads. Their profit pattern are generally variations on the profit
patterns from the corresponding bull or spreads.

COMBINATIONS

A combination is an option trading strategy that involves taking a position in

both calls and puts on the same stock. We will consider straddles, strips, straps,
and strangles.

148
Straddle

One popular combination is a straddle, which involves buying a call and

a put with the same strike price and expiration date. The profit pattern is shown
in Figure 8.10. The strike price is denoted by X. If the stock price is close to
this strike price at expiration of the options, the straddle leads to a loss.
However, if there is a sufficiently large move in either direction, a significant
profit will result The payoff from a straddle is calculated in Table 8.4.

straddle is appropriate when a trader is expecting a large move in a stock

price but does not know in which direction the move will be. Consider a trader
who feels that the price of a certain stock, currently valued at Rs69 by the
market. will move significantly in the next three months. The trader could create
astraddle by buying both a put and a call with a strike price of Rs70 and an
expiration date in three months. Suppose that the call costs Rs4 and the put costs
Rs3. If the stock price stays at Rs69, it is easy to see that the strategy costs the
trader Rs6.

(An up- Straddle front investment of Rs7 is required, the call expires
worthless, and the put expires worth Rs1.) If the stock price moves to Rs70, a
loss of Rs7 is experienced- (This is the worst that can happen.)
Range of Pay of From Pay of From Total
Stock Price Call Put Payoff
ST < X 0 X-ST X – ST
ST > X ST – X 0 ST - X
149
 However, if the stock price jumps to Rs90, a profit ofRs13 is made; if the
stock moves down to Rs55, a profit of 'i;8 is made; and so on.

A straddle seems like a natural trading strategy when a big jump in the
price of a company's stock is expected for example, when there is a takeover bid
for the company or when the outcome of a major lawsuit is expected to be
announced soon. However, this is not necessarily the case. If the general view of
the market is that there will be a big jump in the stock price soon, that view will
be reflected in the prices of . options. A trader will find options on the stock to be
significantly more expensive I than options on a similar stock. for which no
jump is expected. For a straddle to be an t effective strategy, the trader must
believe that there are likely to be big movements in the stock price, and this
belief must be different from those of most other market participants.

The straddle in Figure 8.10 is sometimes referred to as a bottom straddle

or straddle purchase. A top straddle or straddle write is the reverse position. It
is created by selling a call and a put with the same exercise price and expiration
date. It is a highly risky strategy. If the stock price on the expiration date is close
to the strike price, a significant profit result. However, the loss arising from a
large move in either direction is unlimited.

Strips and Strops

A strip consists of a long position in one call and two puts with the same
strike price and one put with the same price and expiration data. A strap consists
of a long position in two calls and one put with the same strike price and
expiration data. The profit patterns from strips and straps are show in Figure
8.11. In a strip the trader is betting that there will be a big stock price move and
considers a decrease in the stock price to be more likely than an increase. In a
strap the trader is also betting that there will be a big stock price

150
move. However, in a strap the trader is also betting that there will be a big
stock price move. However, in this case, an increase in the stock price is
considered to be more likely than a decrease.

Profit potentials from a strip and strap.

Option strategies – in brief

Combining any of the four basic kinds of option trades (possibly with
different exercise prices) and the two basic kinds of stock trades (long and short)
allows a variety of options strategies. Simple strategies usually combine only a
few trades, while more complicated strategies can combine several.

 Covered call — Long the stock, short a call. This has essentially the
same payoff as a short put.
 Straddle — Long a call and long a put with the same exercise prices (a
long straddle), or short a call and short a put with the same exercise prices
(a short straddle).
 Strangle — Long a call and long a put with different exercise prices (a
long strangle), or short a call and short a put with different exercise prices
(a short strangle).

151
 Bull spread — Long a call with a low exercise price and short a call
with a higher exercise price, or long a put with a low exercise price and
short a put with a higher exercise price.
 Bear spread — Short a call with a low exercise price and long a call
with a higher exercise price, or short a put with a low exercise price and
long a put with a higher exercise price.
 Butterfly — Butterflies require trading options with 3 different exercise
prices. Assume exercise prices X1 < X2 < X3 and that (X1 + X3) /2 = X2
o Long butterfly — long 1 call with exercise price X1, short 2 calls with
exercise price X2, and long 1 call with exercise price X3. Alternatively,
long 1 put with exercise price X1, short 2 puts with exercise price X2, and
long 1 put with exercise price X3.
o Short butterfly — short 1 call with exercise price X1, long 2 calls with
exercise price X2, and short 1 call with exercise price X3. Alternatively,
short 1 put with exercise price X1, long 2 puts with exercise price X2, and
short 1 put with exercise price X3.
 Box spreads — Any combination of options that has a constant payoff at
expiry. For example combining a long butterfly made with calls, with a
short butterfly made with puts will have a constant payoff of zero, and in
equilibrium will cost zero. In practice any profit from these spreads will be
eaten up by commissions (hence the name "alligator spreads").

3.8. FUTURES CONTRACT-MEANING

A futures contract is a type of derivative instrument, or financial contract,

in which two parties agree to transact a set of financial instruments or physical
commodities for future delivery at a particular price. If one buys a futures
contract, he is basically agreeing to buy something that a seller has not yet
produced for a set price. But participating in the futures market does not

152
necessarily mean that he will be responsible for receiving or delivering large
inventories of physical commodities, instead, buyers and sellers in the futures
market primarily enter into futures contracts to hedge risk or speculate rather
than to exchange physical goods (which is the primary activity of the cash/spot
market). That is why futures are used as financial instruments by not only
producers and consumers but also speculators.

The consensus in the investment world is that the futures market is a

major financial hub, providing an outlet for intense competition among buyers
and sellers and, more importantly, providing a center to manage price risks. The
futures market is extremely liquid, risky and complex by nature, but can be
understood.

3.9.FUTURESCHARA CHARACTERISTICS

Margins

In the futures market, margin has a definition distinct from its definition
in the stock market, where margin is the use of borrowed money to purchase
securities. In the futures market, margin refers to the initial deposit of "good
faith" made into an account in order to enter into a futures contract. This margin
is referred to as good faith because it is this money that is used to debit any day-
to-day losses.

When one opens a futures contract, the futures exchange will state a
minimum amount of money that one must deposit into ones account which is
called the initial margin. When the contract is liquidated, the initial margin plus
or minus any gains or losses that occur over the span of the futures contract will
be refunded. The minimum-level margin is determined by the futures exchange
and is usually 5% to 10% of the futures contract. These predetermined initial

153
margin amounts are continuously under review: at times of high market
volatility, initial margin requirements can be raised.

The initial margin is the minimum amount required to enter into a new
futures contract, but the maintenance margin is the lowest amount an account
can reach before needing to be replenished. For example, if your margin account
drops to a certain level because of a series of daily losses, brokers are required
to make a margin call and request that you make an additional deposit into your
account to bring the margin back up to the initial amount.

When a margin call is made, the funds usually have to be delivered

immediately. If they are not, the brokerage can have the right to liquidate your
position completely in order to make up for any losses it may have incurred on
your behalf.

Leverage:

In the futures market, leverage refers to having control over large cash
amounts of commodities with comparatively small levels of capital. In other
words, with a relatively small amount of cash, you can enter into a futures
contract that is worth much more than you initially have to pay (deposit into
your margin account). It is said that in the futures market, more than any other
form of investment, price changes are highly leveraged, meaning a small change
in a futures price can translate into a huge gain or loss.

Futures positions are highly leveraged because the initial margins that
are set by the exchanges are relatively small compared to the cash value of the
contracts in question (which is part of the reason why the futures market is
useful but also very risky). The smaller the margin in relation to the cash value
of the futures contract, the higher the leverage.

154
 As a result of leverage, if the price of the futures contract moves up even
slightly, the profit gain will be large in comparison to the initial margin.
However, if the price just inches downwards, that same high leverage will yield
huge losses in comparison to the initial margin deposit.

Pricing and Limits

Futures prices have a price change limit that determines the prices
between which the contracts can trade on a daily basis. The price change limit is
added to and subtracted from the previous day's close and the results remain the
upper and lower price boundary for the day.

The exchange can revise this price limit if it feels it's necessary. It's not
uncommon for the exchange to abolish daily price limits in the month that the
contract expires (delivery or “spot” month). This is because trading is often
volatile during this month, as sellers and buyers try to obtain the best price
possible before the expiration of the contract.

In order to avoid any unfair advantages, the futures exchanges impose

limits on the total amount of contracts or units of a commodity in which any
single person can invest. These are known as position limits and they ensure that
no one person can control the market price for a particular commodity.

Stock index futures are traded in terms of number of contracts. Each

contract is to buy or sell a fixed value of the index. The value of the index is
defined as the value of the index multiplied by the specified monetary amount.
The monetary value is fixed by the exchange where the contract is traded.

An index future is a future on the index i.e. the underlying is the index
itself and no underlying security or a stock, which is to be delivered to fulfill the

155
 obligations. Index futures are cash settled. As other derivatives, the contract
derives its value from the underlying index. The underlying indices in this case
will be the various eligible indices and as permitted by the Regulator from time
to time.

CONTRACT SPECIFICATION FOR INDEX FUTURES

CONTRACTS

Contract Period 1, 2, 3 months

Tick size 0.05 index points
Price Quotation index points
Trading Hours 9:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m.
Last Thursday of the contract month. If it is
Last Trading/Expiration holiday, the immediately preceding business day.
Day Note: Business day is a day during which the
underlying stock market is open for trading.
Cash Settlement. On the last trading day, the
closing value of the underlying index would be
the final settlement price of the expiring futures
Final Settlement
contract.

Sr. No. Security Symbol Underlying Contract

Multiplier
1 BSX BSE SENSEX 25
2 TEK BSE TECK INDEX 125
3 BNK BSE BANKEX 50
4 OGX BSE OIL & GAS INDEX 38
5 PSU BSE PSU INDEX 50
6 MET BSE METAL INDEX 25
7 FMC BSE FMCG INDEX 175

Eligibility criteria for introducing Futures Option Contracts on Index

156
 The Futures Options Contracts on an index can be issued only if 80% of
the index constituents are individually eligible for derivatives trading. However,
no single ineligible stock in the index shall have a weight age of more than 5%
in the index. The index on which Futures and Options contracts are introduced
shall be required to comply with the eligibility criteria on a monthly basis.

Discontinuance of Derivatives Contracts on index:

If the index fails to meet the above eligibility criteria for three months
consecutively, then no fresh month contract shall be issued on that Index.
However, the existing unexpired contracts shall be permitted to trade till expiry
and new strike prices will continue to be introduced in the existing contracts.

IMPORTANCE OF INDEX FUTURES

Technical analysts thrive on their ability to predict the movement of the

broad market indices. However, as they cannot trade the index, the normal
practice is to try to capture a relation between the index and individual stocks.
The introduction of the futures contract on stock indices gives them the
opportunity to actually buy into the components of the index.

The other important use of stock index futures is for hedging. Mutual
funds and other institutional investors are the main beneficiaries. Hedging is a
technique by which such institutions can protect their portfolios from market
risks. There are three different views in the literature on the nature and purpose
of hedging:

* Risk minimisation.

* Profit maximisation.

 Reaching a satisfactory risk-return trade-off using a portfolio.

157
 Historically, stock index futures have supplemented, and often replaced,
the secondary stock market as a stock price discovery mechanism. The
futures market has heralded institutional participation in the market with
increased velocity and concentration on stock-trading.

Programme-trading and index arbitrage are necessary for an efficient and

thriving futures market. However, on the flip side, these strategies have
increased the risks associated with stock specialists. The increased
concentration, the velocity of futures trading, and the resultant increase in
volatility in the stock market, may have a long-term impact on the
participation of individual investors in the market.

However, index futures provide investors an efficient and cost-effective

means of hedging and significant improvements in market timing.

A SECURITY FUTURES

Contract is a legally binding agreement between two parties to buy or

sell a specific quantity of shares of an individual stock or a narrow-based
security index at a specified price, on a specified date in the future (known as the
settlement or expiration date). If one buys a futures contract, he is entering into a
contract to buy the underlying security and are said to be "long" the contract.
Conversely, if one sells a futures contract, he is entering into a contract to sell
the underlying security and are considered "short" the contract.

Security Futures Contract Specifications

Contract size - Typically, one single stock futures contract will represent 100
shares of the underlying stock. A narrow-based index futures contract will
represent the value of the index times rupee amount set by the exchange.
Contract month - The month when the contract expires. There will be several

158
different contract months available for trading at any one time, and the number
of contract months may vary from exchange to exchange.

Offsetting Transactions
Prior to expiration, one can realize the current gains or losses by
executing an offsetting sale or purchase in the same contract (i.e., an equal and
opposite transaction to the one that opened the position).

Example: Investor A is long one September ABC Corp. futures contract. To

close out or offset the long position, Investor A would sell an identical
September ABC Corp. contract.
Investor B is short one October XYZ Corp. futures contract. To close out
or offset the short position, Investor B would buy an identical October XYZ
Corp. contract.

Contract Expiration and Delivery

Any futures contract that hasn't been liquidated by an offsetting

transaction before the contract's expiration date will be settled at that day's
settlement price. The terms of the contract specify whether a contract will be
settled by physical delivery - receiving or giving up the actual shares of stock -
or by cash settlement. Where physical delivery is required, a holder of a short
position must deliver the underlying security. Conversely, a holder of a long
position must take delivery of the underlying shares.

Where cash settlement is required, the underlying security is not

delivered. Rather, any security futures contracts that are open are settled through
a final cash payment based on the settlement price. Once this payment is made,
neither party has any further obligations on the contract.
Margin & Leverage

159
 When a brokerage firm lends one part of the funds needed to purchase a
security, such as common stock, the term "margin" refers to the amount of cash,
or down payment, the customer is required to deposit. By contrast, a security
futures contract is an obligation not an asset and has no value as collateral for a
loan. When one enters into a security futures contract, he is required to make a
payment referred to as a "margin payment" or "performance bond" to cover
potential losses.

For a relatively small amount of money (the margin requirement), a

futures contract worth several times as much can be bought or sold. The smaller
the margin requirement in relation to the underlying values of the futures
contract, the greater the leverage. Because of this leverage, small changes in
price can result in large gains and losses in a short period of time.

Gains & Losses

Unlike stocks, gains and losses in security futures accounts are posted to
the account every day, which are determined by the settlement price set by the
exchange. If due to losses one’s account falls below maintenance margin
requirements, he will be required to place additional funds in the account to
cover those losses.

Tax Implications

The tax consequences of a security futures transaction may depend on

the status of the taxpayer and the type of position (that is, long or short, covered
or uncovered). For example, for most individual investors, security futures are
not taxed as futures contracts. Short security futures contract positions are taxed
at the short-term capital gains rate, regardless of how long the contract is held.
Long security futures contracts may be taxed at either the long-term or short-

160
term capital gains rate, depending on how long they are held. For dealers,
however, security future contracts are taxed like other futures contracts at a
blend of 60% long-term and 40% short-term capital gains rates. Depending on
the type of trading strategy that is used, there can be additional or different tax
consequences too.

Variety and Fungibility of Security Futures Contracts

Contract specifications may vary from contract to contract as well as

from exchange to exchange. For instance, most security futures contracts require
settling by making physical delivery of the underlying security, as opposed to
making cash settlement. Carefully review the settlement and delivery conditions
before entering into a security futures contract.

At this time, security futures traded on one exchange are not "fungible"
with security futures traded on another exchange. This means one will only be
able to offset a position on the exchange where the original trade took place -
even though a better price may be available for a comparable futures contract on
the same underlying security or index on another exchange.

161
CONTRACT SPECIFICATIONS FOR SINGLE STOCK FUTURES

Contract Period 1, 2 & 3 months

Tick size 0.05 points i.e. 5 paisa
Price Quotation Rupees per share.
Trading Hours 9:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m.
Last Thursday of the contract month. If it is holiday,
Last Trading/Expiration then the immediately preceding business day.Note:
Day Business day is a day during which the underlying
stock market is open for trading.
Cash Settlement. On the last trading day, the closing
Final Settlement value of the underlying stock is the final settlement
price of the expiring futures contract.

Stock Futures Products

Sr. Product Product Code
No.
1 ACC FUTURES ACCFUT
2 ALLAHABAD BANK FUTURES ALBKFUT
3 ALOK INDUSTRIES FUTURES ALOKFUT
4 ARVIND MILLS FUTURES ARVFUT
5 ASHOK LEYLAND FUTURES ASHFUT
6 BAJAJ AUTO FUTURES BAJFUT
7 BANK OF BARODA FUTURES BOBFUT
8 BHARTI TELE FUTURES BTLFUT
9 BHEL FUTURES BHEFUT
10 BOI FUTURES BOIFUT
11 BPCL FUTURES BPCFUT
12 CANARA BANK FUTURES CNBFUT
13 CENTURY TEXTILES FUTURES CENFUT
14 CIPLA FUTURES CIPFUT
15 DR. REDDY FUTURES DRRFUT
16 GACL FUTURES GACFUT
17 GAIL FUTURES GAILFUT

162
18 GESCO FUTURES GESHFUT
19 GMR INFRASTRUCTURE FUTURES GMRFUT
20 GNFC FUTURES GNFCFUT
21 GRASIM FUTURES GRSFUT
22 HCLTECH FUTURES HCLTFUT
23 HDFC BANK FUTURES HDBKFUT
24 HDFC FUTURES HDFFUT
25 HEROHONDA FUTURES HEROFUT
26 HINDALCO FUTURES HNDFUT
27 HLL FUTURES HLLFUT
28 HPCL FUTURES HPCFUT
29 ICICI BANK FUTURES ICICFUT
30 IDBI FUTURES IDBIFUT
31 IDFC FUTURES IDFCFUT
32 IFLEX FUTURES IFLXFUT
33 INDIA CEMENT FUTURES INCMFUT
34 INDUSIND BANK FUTURES INBKFUT
35 INFOSYS FUTURES INFFUT
36 IOCL FUTURES IOCLFUT
37 IPCL FUTURES IPCLFUT
38 ITC FUTURES ITCFUT
39 JET AIRWAYS FUTURES JETFUT
40 JHPL FUTURES JHPFUT
41 JINDAL STEEL & POWER FUTURES JNSTFUT
42 LIC HOUSING FINANCE FUTURES LICHFUT
43 LNT FUTURES LNTFUT
44 MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA FUTURES MNMFUT
45 MARUTI UDYOG FUTURES MULFUT
46 MTNL FUTURES MTNFUT
47 NALCO FUTURES NALCFUT
48 NICHOLAS PIRAMAL FUTURES NCPRFUT
49 NTPC FUTURES NTPCFUT
50 OBC FUTURES OBCFUT

163
51 ONGC FUTURES ONGCFUT
52 ORCHID CHEMICALS FUTURES ORCHFUT
53 PNB FUTURES PNBFUT
54 POLARIS FUTURES POLAFUT
55 PUNJ LLYOD FUTURES PNJFUT
56 RANBAXY FUTURES RBXFUT
57 RELENRG FUTURES RENFUT
58 RELIANCE CAPITAL FUTURES RCAPFUT
59 RELIANCE COMMUNICATION Ltd
FUTURES
RCOMFUT
60 RIL FUTURES RILFUT
61 RPL FUTURES RPLFUT
62 SAIL FUTURES SAILFUT
63 SATYAM FUTURES SATFUT
64 SBI FUTURES SBIFUT
65 SCI FUTURES SCIFUT
66 SIEMENS FUTURES SIEMFUT
67 STERLITE INDS FUTURES STERFUT
68 SUNTV FUTURES SNTVFUT
69 SUZLON FUTURES SUZFUT
70 TATA CHEMICALS FUTURES TCHMFUT
71 TATA MOTORS FUTURES TELFUT
72 TATA POWER FUTURES TPWFUT
73 TATA TEA FUTURES TTEFUT
74 TCS FUTURES TCSFUT
75 TISCO FUTURES TISFUT
76 UBI FUTURES UBIFUT
77 UTI BANK FUTURES UTIBFUT
78 VSNL FUTURES VSNLFUT
79 WIPRO FUTURES WIPRFUT
80 ZEE TELEFILMS LTD ZEEFUT

164
ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR INTRODUCING FUTURES OPTION
CONTRACTS ON STOCKS.

o The stocks would be chosen from amongst the top 500 stocks in
terms of average daily market capitalization and average daily
traded value in the previous six-month on a rolling basis.
o For a stock to be eligible, the median quarter-sigma order size
over the last six months should not be less than Rs. 1 lac. For this
purpose, a stock's quarter sigma order size shall mean the order
size (in value terms) required to cause a change in the stock price
equal to one-quarter of a standard deviation.
o The market wide position limit in the stock should not be less
than Rs. 50 crores. Since, the market wide position limit in terms
of number of shares is computed at the end of the every month,
the Exchange shall ensure that the stocks comply with this
criterion before the introduction of new contracts. The market
wide position limit in terms of number of shares shall be valued
taking the closing prices of the stocks in the underlying cash
market on the date of expiry of contract in the month.

Eligibility criteria for stocks on account of corporate restructuring:

All the following conditions should be met in the case of shares of a

company undergoing restructuring through any means for eligibility to re-
introduce derivative contracts on that company from the first day of listing of
the post restructured company in the underlying market:

o The Futures and Options contracts on the stock of the original

(pre-restructure) company were traded on any exchange prior to
its restructuring.

165
 o The pre restructured company had a market capitalization of at
least Rs. 1000 crores prior to restructuring.
o The post restructure company would be treated like a new stock
and if it is, in the opinion of the exchange, likely to be at least
one third of the size of the pre structuring company in terms of
revenues or assets or analyst valuations, and
o In the opinion of the exchange, the scheme of restructuring does
not suggest that the post restructured company would have any
characteristic that would render the company ineligible for
derivatives trading.
o If the post restructured company comes out with an Initial Public
Offering (IPO), then the same prescribed criteria as currently
applicable for introduction of derivatives on a company coming
out with an IPO is applied for introduction of derivatives on
stocks of the post restructured company from its first day of
listing.

Discontinuance of Derivatives Contracts on stocks :

No fresh month contracts shall be issued on the stocks under the

following instances:

o If a stock does not conform to the above eligibility criteria for a

consecutive period of three months, no fresh month contracts
shall be issued on the same.
o If the stock remains in the banned position in the manner stated
as per para 4 (i) (a), (b) (c) of the aforementioned SEBI circular,
for a significant part of the month, consistently for three months,
then no fresh month contracts shall be issued on those scrips.

166
 However, in both the above instances, the existing unexpired contracts
shall continue to be available for trading till they expire on the last Thursdays of
the respective months and new strike prices will continue to be introduced in the
existing contracts.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SECURITY FUTURES AND STOCK OPTIONS

Although security futures share some characteristics in common with

stock options, these products differ significantly. Most importantly, an option
buyer may choose whether or not to exercise the option by the exercise date.
Options purchasers who neither sell their options in the secondary market nor
exercise them before they expire will lose the amount of the premium they paid
for each option, but they cannot lose more than the amount of the premium. A
security futures contract, on the other hand, is a binding agreement to buy or
sell. Based upon movements in price of the underlying security, holders of a
security futures contract can gain or lose many times their initial margin deposit.

TRADING SYSTEM

The futures market is a centralized marketplace for buyers and sellers

from around the world who meet and enter into futures contracts. Pricing can be
based on an open cry system, or bids and offers can be matched electronically.
The futures contract will state the price that will be paid and the date of delivery.
But don't worry, as we mentioned earlier, almost all futures contracts end
without the actual physical delivery of the commodity.

3.17.1.The Players

The players in the futures market fall into two categories: hedgers and
speculators.
167
Hedgers
Farmers, manufacturers, importers and exporters can all be hedgers. A
hedger buys or sells in the futures market to secure the future price of a
commodity intended to be sold at a later date in the cash market. This helps
protect against price risks.

The holders of the long position in futures contracts (the buyers of the
commodity), are trying to secure as low a price as possible. The short holders of
the contract (the sellers of the commodity) will want to secure as high a price as
possible. The futures contract, however, provides a definite price certainty for
both parties, which reduces the risks associated with price volatility. Hedging by
means of futures contracts can also be used as a means to lock in an acceptable
price margin between the cost of the raw material and the retail cost of the final
product sold.

Speculators

Other market participants, however, do not aim to minimize risk but

rather to benefit from the inherently risky nature of the futures market. These are
the speculators, and they aim to profit from the very price change that hedgers
are protecting themselves against. Hedgers want to minimize their risk no matter
what they're investing in, while speculators want to increase their risk and
therefore maximize their profits.

In the futures market, a speculator buying a contract low in order to sell

high in the future would most likely be buying that contract from a hedger
selling a contract low in anticipation of declining prices in the future.

Unlike the hedger, the speculator does not actually seek to own the
commodity in question. Rather, he or she will enter the market seeking profits
168
by offsetting rising and declining prices through the buying and selling of
contracts.

Trader Short Long

Secure a price now
Secure a price now to protect
The Hedger to protect against
against future declining prices
future rising prices
Secure a price now
Secure a price now in
The Speculator in anticipation of
anticipation of declining prices
rising prices

In a fast-paced market into which information is continuously being fed,

speculators and hedgers bounce off of - and benefit from - each other. The closer
it gets to the time of the contract's expiration, the more solid the information
entering the market will be regarding the commodity in question. Thus, all can
expect a more accurate reflection of supply and demand and the corresponding
price.

Futures contracts are traded on recognised exchanges. In India, both the

NSE and the BSE introduced index futures in the S&P CNX Nifty and the BSE
Sensex. The operations are similar to that of the stock market, the exception
being that, in index futures, the marking-to-market principle is followed, that is,
the portfolios are adjusted to the market values on a daily basis.

The Derivatives Trading at BSE takes place through a fully automated

screen based trading platform called as DTSS (Derivatives Trading and
Settlement System). The DTSS is designed to allow trading on a real time basis.
In addition to generating trades by matching opposite orders, the DTSS also
generates various reports for the member participants.

3.17.2. Order Matching Rules

169
 Order Matching will take place after order acceptance wherein the
system searches for an opposite matching order. If a match is found, a trade will
be generated. The order against which the trade has been generated will be
removed from the system. In case the order is not exhausted further matching
orders will be searched for and trades generated till the order gets exhausted or
no more match-able orders are found. If the order is not entirely exhausted, the
system will retain the order in the pending order book. Matching of the orders
will be in the priority of price and timestamp. A unique trade-id will be
generated for each trade and the entire information of the trade is sent to the
members involved.

Order Conditions

The derivatives market is order driven i.e. the traders can place only
Orders in the system. Following are the Order types allowed for the derivative
products. These order types have characteristics similar to ones in the cash
market.

o Limit Order: An order for buying or selling at a limit price or

better, if possible. Any unexecuted portion of the order remains as
a pending order till it is matched or its duration expires.
o Market Order: An order for buying or selling at the best price
prevailing in the market at the time of submission of the order.
There are two types of Market orders:
1. Partial fill rest Kill (PF): execute the available quantity
and kill any unexecuted portion.
2. Partial fill rest Convert (PC): execute the available
quantity and convert any unexecuted portion into a limit
order at the traded price.

170
o Stop Loss: An order that becomes a limit order only when the
market trades at a specified price.
o All orders shall have the following attributes:
o Order Type (Limit / Market PF/Market PC/ Stop Loss)
o The Asset Code, Product Type, Maturity, Call/Put and Strike
Price.
o Buy/Sell Indicator
o Order Quantity
o Price
o Client Type (Own / Institutional / Normal)
o Client Code
o Order Retention Type (GFD / GTD / GTC)
Good For Day (GFD) - The lifetime of the order is that trading
session.
o Good Till Date (GTD) - The life of the order is till the number of
days as specified by the Order Retention Period.
Good Till Cancelled (GTC) - The order if not traded will remain
in the system till it is cancelled or the series expires, whichever is
earlier.
o Order Retention Period (in calendar days) This field is enabled
only if the value of the previous attribute is GTD. It specifies the
number of days the order is to be retained.
o Protection Points This is a field relevant in Market Orders and
Stop Loss orders. The value enterable will be in absolute
underlying points and specifies the band from the touchline price
or the trigger price within which the market order or the stop loss
order respectively can be traded.

171
 o Risk Reducing Orders (Y/N): When the member's collateral falls
below 50 lacs then he will be allowed to put only risk reducing
orders and he will not be allowed to take any fresh positions. It is
not essentially a type of order but a mode into which the member
is put into when he violates his collateral limit. A member who
has entered the risk-reducing mode will be allowed to put only
one risk reducing order at a time.

Session Timings

SESSION NAME FROM TO

Beginning of the Day Session 8:00 9:00
Login Session 9:00 9:30
Trading Session 9:30 15:30
Position Transfer Session 15:30 15:50
Closing Session 15:50 16:05
Option Exercise Session 16:05 16:35
Margin Session 16:35 16:50
Query Session 16:50 17:35
End of Day Session 17:35 17:35

Price Bands

There are no maximum and minimum price ranges for Futures and
Options Contracts. However, to avoid erroneous order entry, dummy price
bands have been introduced in the Derivatives Segment. Further, no price bands
are prescribed in the Cash Segment for stocks on which Futures & Options
contracts are available for trading. Also, for those stocks which do not have
Futures & Options Contracts available on them but are forming part of the index
on which Futures & Options contracts are available, no price bands are attracted
provided the daily average trading on such indices in the F & O Segment is not
172
 less than 20 contracts and traded on not less than 10 days in the preceding
month.

Limited Trading Membership For Bse Derivatives Segment

A Limited Trading Member (LTM) is a non-clearing trading participant

having full trading rights and direct market access to the Derivatives Trading
System of the Exchange.

o A LTM is provided with derivatives trading terminals for

execution of trades either on his own account or on account of his
clients.
o A LTM can issue contract notes to his clients in his own name.
o A LTM can exercise and perform trade and position management
functions online and also check his payment obligations that may
result from his trading activities.
o A LTM, however, cannot clear and settle trades executed by him
directly with the Clearing House of the Exchange. For this
purpose, we would need to enter into an arrangement with an
existing Clearing Member of the Derivatives Segment of BSE. (A
list of Clearing Members can be obtained from the Exchange.)

Advantages of becoming a LTM

1. Direct access to the on-line Derivatives Trading System

of the Exchange
2. Trading in Option and Futures on Sensex, Single Stock
Futures and options in eligible scrips and interest rate
derivative instruments

2. Access to new products as and when they are introduced

173
Requirements for becoming a LTM

Individuals, firms, corporate and institutions, who are not members of

the Cash Segment of BSE, can become LTM.

o Minimum networth of Rs. 25 lakhs

o A registration with SEBI
o One-time (non-refundable) contribution to Trade Guarantee Fund
(TGF) : Rs.1,00,000 One-time (non-refundable) contribution to
Investors Protection Fund (IPF) : Rs.2,00,000
o Annual membership charges : Rs.25,000

LTM has to maintain a minimum security deposit of Rs.7,50,000 with

the Clearing Member and the same is available to him for the purpose of trading
limits and initial margin requirements.

The members are at present required to pay transaction charges at a Re.

0.25 per Rs.1,00,000 of turnover which is appropriated towards TGF & IPF.

Sub-brokers in the Cash Segment can become LTMs of the Derivatives

Segment with minimum investment and significant advantages as mentioned
above.
3.18. FUTURES STRATEGIES

Essentially, futures contracts try to predict what the value of an index or

commodity will be at some date in the future. Speculators in the futures market
can use different strategies to take advantage of rising and declining prices. The
most common are known as going long, going short and spreads.

Going Long

174
 When an investor goes long - that is, enters a contract by agreeing to buy
and receive delivery of the underlying at a set price - it means that he or she is
trying to profit from an anticipated future price increase.

Going Short

A speculator who goes short - that is, enters into a futures contract by
agreeing to sell and deliver the underlying at a set price - is looking to make a
profit from declining price levels. By selling high now, the contract can be
repurchased in the future at a lower price, thus generating a profit for the
speculator.
Spreads

Spreads involve taking advantage of the price difference between two

different contracts of the same commodity. Spreading is considered to be one of
the most conservative forms of trading in the futures market because it is much
safer than the trading of long/short (naked) futures contracts.

There are many different types of spreads, including:

Calendar Spread - This involves the simultaneous purchase and sale of two
futures of the same type, having the same price, but different delivery dates.

Intermarket Spread - Here the investor, with contracts of the same month,
goes long in one market and short in another market. For example, the investor
may take Short June Wheat and Long June Pork Bellies.

Inter-Exchange Spread - This is any type of spread in which each position is

175
created in different futures exchanges. For example, the investor may create a
position in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the London International
Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE).

3.19.ADVANTAGE OF FUTURES INDEX

It is a risk hedge and caters to speculative instinct of investors. It is a

more efficient method of controlling risk on a portfolio, as it reduces the"
transactions trading costs and price pressure. Neither the buyer nor the seller
pays the full value of the underlying asserts but deals only in differences, in
cash without involving delivery of the assets. The futures smoothens the asset
reallocation, provides hedge hedge inflows or outflows of cash and reduces
the impact of bullish and bearish ling as futures do not involve full payment
on receipt both the underlying assets is a dealing in differences.

Operation of Hedge of Risk

To illustrate the coverage of risk, assume that you expect a future cash
inflow of Rs.50,000 a month hence, which you wish to invest in equities. But
the market is bullish and prices are expected to rise. Then you buy an index
future contract to are the expected rise in price. You can also seli short if the
market is expected to fall in prices. Suppose, you have the securities in your
portfolio and expect the market to fall then you can sell the futures, instead of
the securities. If the actual fall lore than the expected price, you will receive
the difference in cash. A bullish expectation makes you buy the futures
contract and a bearish expectation makes you the futures contract. If your
expectations are correctly realised, you can make they on the deals without
actually buying and selling the underlying securities. s will enable you to trade
on a smaller investment as the margins you have to p for trading in Futures is

176
generally 6 to 10%, and the loss of interest money is expensive then the loss of
interest on a bigger outlay involved in buying and mg for deliveries of
underlying securities or shares or bonds.

3.20.FUTURES ON FIXED INCOME SECURITIES

Investment strategies of fixed income securities are fairly simple when

compared to equity as they invest in government securities, corporate bonds, etc
where the returns are fixed. Though fixed income securities have much lower
risks than equities, they are not completely risk free either. The following are the
various risks associated with them.

Credit risk

Credit risk is the possibility of default in the repayment of principal and

interest by a borrower. Among fixed income securities, corporate bonds carry
the highest credit risk. If the issuing company falls into serious financial
difficulties, there is every possibility that repayment will be delayed
considerably and may never even be made. Funds reduce this risk by investing
only in bonds issued by companies with good credit rating. However, a good
credit rating is no guarantee that the company would continue to perform well in
future and honour all its financial commitments.

Government securities carry no credit risk, as the issuer can never

default, and are backed by the sovereign guarantee of the country and are called
sovereign securities. However, they carry lower returns than other fixed income
securities.

Liquidity risk

177
 Liquidity in any market refers to the possibility for traders to enter and
exit positions with relative ease in relation to volume and size of transactions.
Highly liquid markets also reduce the impact costs of transactions which result
from fluctuations in prices when large transactions are pushed through in a less
liquid market. (The difference between the market price before the sale offer and
the price at which the bonds are sold constitutes the impact cost for the seller).

The market for government securities and short term money markets are
very liquid where the impact costs are almost negligible, but, the returns offered
by these assets are much lower than the relatively illiquid corporate bonds.

Price risks

Corporate bonds will always be rated by a reputed rating agency for their
creditworthiness which may be changed to reflect the changes in the economy,
industry or the company in question. These rate changes can affect the market
prices of the bonds. This exposes the fund investing in such bonds to a price
risk.

Interest rate risks

Market prices of all fixed income securities are largely dependent on the
prevailing interest rate in the economy. If interest rates are expected to come
down in future, bonds issued in the past would become more attractive and vice
verse.

Almost all investments made by fixed income funds are subject to

interest rate risks. But, the securities with longer maturities are more volatile
than shorter term securities.
178
Other risks

Indian mutual funds are allowed to invest in overseas fixed income

securities denominated in a foreign currency. Such investments are subject to
fluctuations in currency values. They are also exposed to various political and
economic risks associated with the country in which the security was issued.

3.21.HEDGING BY FIXED INCOME FUNDS

Like equity funds, fixed income funds can also hedge their price risks by
entering into derivative transactions. However, fixed income derivatives are not
easily understood and they are not traded in an open market like stock futures.
Two common derivatives used by fixed income funds are:

Interest rate swaps

Interest rates are of two types, fixed interest rates and floating rates
which vary according to changes in a standard benchmark interest rate. An
investor holding a security which pays a floating interest rate is exposed to
interest rate risk. The investor can manage this risk by entering into an interest
rate swap.

An interest rate swap is a financial agreement between two parties to

swap or exchange interest obligations of varying nature for an agreed period.
The contract will specify the interest rates, the benchmark rate to be followed,
the notional principal amount for the transaction, etc.

For example, take the case of a mutual fund which has invested Rs.50
crore in a floating interest bond of one year maturity. The interest payable by the
issuer of the bond is not fixed and will vary with the changes in the benchmark
interest rate specified.

179
 The mutual fund can enter into an interest rate swap agreement with a
counter party who will guarantee to pay interest at a fixed rate, say 10 per cent,
on the notional amount of Rs.50 crore for a period of one year. In return, the
fund will guarantee to pay the counter party interest at the benchmark rate on
Rs.50 crore for one year. In other words, the fund will pass on the interest
received on its investment in floating rate bond to the counter party and receive
a fixed interest in return.

In practice, at the end of the contract period the total interest payable by
each party is calculated and the net amount is settled in cash. If the benchmark
rate, compounded daily for one year as it fluctuates on a daily basis, is lower
than 10 per cent the mutual fund will receive the difference from the counter
party. If it is the other way round the fund will pay the difference to the counter
party. Either way, the fund is assured of an interest rate of 10 per cent whatever
happens to the benchmark rate.

Forward rate agreements

A forward rate agreement, commonly known as FRA, is another form of

interest rate swap. Under a FRA, the parties agree to pay and receive the
difference between a fixed interest rate and the benchmark interest rate
prevailing on a future date. As in the case of a swap, the interest rate, the
benchmark rate and the notional amount will be mentioned in the contract. The
difference is that unlike a swap in which the benchmark interest rate for a period
is considered and is calculated on a daily compounding basis, a FRA considers
the benchmark date only on a specified future date.

Funds having fixed income derivative positions are exposed to counter

party risk. This is the risk of parties on the other side of the derivative
transactions failing to honour their contractual commitments. Since fixed
180
income derivatives are not traded on recognised stock exchanges like stock
derivatives, counter party risk is higher in their case.

3.22.VALUATION OF INDEX FUTURES

If an investor invests in B.S.E. 30 index he will collect dividends on the

scrips he holds and his principal value may go up or down depending on the
index. In the case of the futures index, the investor will get the same outcome
as if he invests all his money in riskless Treasury bills and enters into a
futures contract for future delivery of the index. The futures then must sell at
a price equal to today's price of the index plus a premium equal to risk free
return plus dividend on the index shares.

To show this symbolically let Fe be the price of the futures, Fs is

today's price of futures, Is current price of the Index and D is dividend on the
index shares, and
IE is the index price at the expiration date.
Return to Index = Index price at Expiration – Current Index price +
Divided
= IE-IB+D ---- (1)

Return to Futures = Futures price at Expiration – current futures price +

Interest on Risk free asset.
= FE – FB + RF------------------------------- (2)

The above equation means that the present price of futures, will equal
present price of Index plus the "cost of carry”, which equals (Rf - D), namely,
the interest obtainable on risk-free asset (Rf) minus dividend on Index Shares
(D). The cost of purchasing the Index Shares is substantially higher than the
cost of buying the futures contract for the same index. The money used to buy
the futures will involve interest cost and by not buying the shares, dividends
are lost. Assume that the money used to purchase the index shares is invested

181
 in Treasury bills to give risk free return (Rf). If Rf is less than the dividends
lost, the futures price will be below the Index price (that is Fa < I.) and (RF<D).

3.23. FUTURES ON BOND

While stock index future provide low cost and efficient method of
insuring inst systematic risk of the portfolio, futures on bonds and Treasury
bills provide risk coverage to interest rate risk, which is the largest source of
systematic risk lading fixed income securities.

In the case of index futures, delivery is in cash settlements only but in

the case Futures on Treasury bills or bonds, delivery is in bills or bonds. In the
U.S.,

Treasury Note futures are more popular and easy to understand and
operate. These contracts are available for delivery dates in March, June, Sept.
and Dec. for delivery dates of upto two years from the current date. Yields are
basic unit on which prices are determined.

Thus Annual discount rate =

Face Value – price No.of days to maturity
= X
face value 360
Treasury Bill futures prices is decided on the basis of change in the
discount rate.
Price Paid = 100 – Discount Rate
90
(as a percent of face value) X
360

if discount rate is 6%, for example

1
4 182
 100 – 6 X
100-1.50
=98.50

Deliverable grade is also set out in the terms of the contract as for
example 8%coupon Bill with a maturity period of 6.5 years to 10 years. There
are some futures on long-term honds, like Mortgage Bonds, U.S. Gulf honds,
Municipal Bonds etc. The hond that is cheapest to deliver is used for delivery
by traders.

Bonds sell in the cash market at varying prices, some above and some-
low the converted price of the futures contracts futures prices x conversion
factor). The conversion factors are equal to the ratio of the actual price of the
deliverable bond, to the delivery price of the futures contract; the bond that is
cheapest to deliver is used for delivery by traders and that is decided by the
bond, for which the difference between the invoice price and market price is the
most positive.
Futures price = cash price + carrying costs

Carrying costs depend on the interest at which money can be

borrowed by the investor and the period of financing, say 3 months to
delivery.

Duration Effect

Using the above futures on fixed income securities, the duration of the
portfolio can be changed. Instead of buying in the cash market, it is cheaper
to hedge in futures. If interest rates are likely to increase, the investor should
shorten. to duration of the portfolio and vice versa. He then uses in technique
of buying or selling the futures to lengthen or shorte9 the duration,
respectively. This effect on portfolio is caused duration effect of futures.

183
 Portfolio can have reduced duration by selling short in futures and
increased duration by buying futures. If cash is expected and interest rates are
likely to futures pushing up the prices of bonds, then investor can go tong in
futures and when funds come in, the futures can be converted into cash
purchase of bonds or the underlying security. The opposite stand can be taken
(if an) outflow of cash is expected at a I specific time period in future.

Hedging Effect:

Hedging in futures can be done to reduce the interest rate risk. A

futures f position can be taken to offset the risk in the cash market. Thus a ten
year bond is likely to suffer capital loss due to rise in yields and that is held in
the portfolio of the investor. The risk can be hedged by an appropriate sale of
that security -backed future. If the loss on the existing security is offset by the
gain in the futures contract then it is called a perfect hedge. The difference
between futures price and cash price is called the basis and the risk of variance
of this basis is called basis risk.

The above bond’s risk is substantial when the cross hedging is one.
Cross hedging is hedging in a bland futures, which is not identical with the
bland to be hedged and held in the portfolio. A hedged position thus creates a
b3Sis risk which can be reduced or eliminated by taking extreme caution and
use of expertise in anticipation of the proper time and bond to be hedged.

Yield enhancement Effect

The futures on fixed income security, say a bond, can be used to improve
yields also. What hedging has done is to reduce the risk on the portfolio by
holding a long term bond for a short maturity. As the price of the futures is

184
 fixed, the risk is nil on this period of the futures say 3 months, and the ten year
bond of 10 years, purch3Sed will have greater risk than a riskless bond of 3
months in futures plus a 9 year 9 month bond in the portfolio. The holding of a
riskless bond for short period.. of time in the futures, reduces the risk. This
process may, or may not increase the yield however .

To enhance the yields, the yield on the synthetic security should be

higher than on the cash market security. This synthetic security is created by
being short in a three months futures Treasury bill along with a long position in
the cash market. If the yield on the three month Treasury bill is higher say 6.6%
as against the Treasury bill yield in cash market of 6.4%, then the portfolio will
benefit, from higher yield of 0.2% on the synthetic security, in the futures
market.

SECURITY FUTURES RISKS

All security futures contracts involve risk, and there is no trading

strategy that can eliminate it. Strategies using combinations of positions, such as
spreads may be as risky as outright long or short futures positions. The
following specific risks involved when trading security futures contracts:

 Trading security futures contracts may result in potentially

unlimited losses that are greater than the amount deposited with
the broker. As with any high-risk financial product, one should not
risk any money that one cannot afford to lose, such as: retirement
savings, medical and other emergency funds, funds set aside for
education or home ownership, or funds required meeting living
expenses.
 Be cautious of claims that one can make large profits from
trading security futures. Although the high degree of leverage in
185
 futures can result in large and immediate gains, it can also result in
large and immediate losses. As with any financial product, there is no
such thing as a "sure winner."
 Because of the leverage involved and the nature of futures
transactions, one may feel the effects of his losses immediately.
Unlike holdings in traditional securities, gains and losses in security
futures are credited or debited to ones account on a daily basis at a
minimum. Daily market moves may require one to have or make
additional funds available. If one’s account is under the minimum
margin requirements set by the exchange or the firm, his position
may be liquidated at a loss, and he will be liable for any deficit in his
account.
 Under some market conditions, it may be difficult or impossible
to hedge or liquidate a position. If one cannot hedge or liquidate his
position, any existing losses may continue to mount. Even if one can
hedge or liquidate his position, he may be forced to do so at a price
that involves a large loss. This can occur, for example:

 If trading is halted due to unusual trading activity in either the

security futures contracts or the underlying security,
 If trading is halted due to recent news events involving the
issuer of the underlying security,
 If computer systems failures occur on an exchange or at the
firm carrying one’s position, or
 If the market is illiquid and therefore doesn't have enough
trading interest to get a good price.

186
  Under some market conditions, the prices of security futures may
not maintain their customary or anticipated relationships to the
prices of the underlying security or index. This can occur, for
example, when the market for the security futures contract is illiquid
and lacks trading interest, when the primary market for the
underlying security is closed, or when the reporting of transactions in
the underlying security has been delayed. For index products, this
could also occur when trading is delayed or halted in some or all of
the securities that make up the index.
 May experience losses due to computer systems failures. As with
any financial transaction, one may experience losses if the orders
cannot be executed normally due to systems failures on a regulated
exchange or at the firm carrying the position and the losses may be
greater if the brokerage firm does not have adequate back-up systems
or procedures.
 Placing contingent orders, if permitted, such as " stop-loss" or
" stop-limit" orders, will not necessarily limit your losses to the
intended amount. Market conditions may make it impossible to
execute the order or to get the stop price.
 Day trading strategies involving security futures pose special
risks. As with any financial product, seeking to profit from intra-day
price movements poses a number of risks, including increased
trading costs, greater exposure to leverage, and heightened
competition with professional traders.

SOME TECHNICAL TERMS:

Futures contract - a futures contract is (1) an agreement to purchase or sell a

commodity for delivery in the future; (2) at a price determined at initiation of the

187
contract; (3) that obligates each party to the contract to fulfill it at the specified
price; (4) that is used to assume or shift risk; and (5) that may be satisfied by
delivery or offset.

Narrow-based security index - In general, an index that has any one of the
following four characteristics: (1) it has nine or fewer component securities; (2)
any one of its component securities make up more than 30% of its weighting; (3)
the five highest weighted component securities together make up more than 60%
of its weighting; or (4) the lowest weighted component securities making up, in
the aggregate, 25% of the index's weighting have an aggregate dollar value of
average daily trading volume of less than $50 million (or in the case of an index
with 15 or more component securities, $30 million).

Nominal value - The face value of the futures contract, obtained by multiplying
the contract price by the number of shares or units per contract. If XYZ stock
index futures are trading at $.50.25 and the contract is for 100 shares of XYZ
stock, the nominal value of the futures contract would be $5,025.

Settlement price - 1) The daily price that the clearing organization uses to mark
open positions to market for determining profit and loss and margin calls and for
invoicing deliveries in physical delivery contracts, 2) The price at which open
cash settlement contracts are settled on the last trading day and open physical
delivery contracts are invoiced for delivery.

Spread - 1) Holding a long position in one futures contract and a short position
in a related futures contract or contract month in order to profit from an
anticipated change in the price relationship between the two, 2) The price
difference between two contracts or contract months.

188
2.28. REFERENCES:

1. Donald E, Fischer and Ronald J.Jordan, SECURITY ANALYSIS AND

PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT. 6:h Ed., Prentice Hall of India. 2000.

2. Prasanna Chandra, MANAGING INVESTMENTS, Tata McGraw Hill.

3. R.J.Fuller and J.L. Farrel, MODERN INVESTMENTS AND SECURITY

ANALYSIS, McGraw Hill.

4. Jack Clark Francis, MANAGEMENT OF INVESTMENTS, McGraw Hill.

5. Stron Robert, PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT HAND BOOK, Jaico,

Bombay.

6. Avadhani,V.A. : Securities Analysis and Portfolio Management.

7. Chance, Don M: An Introduction to Derivatives, Dryden Press, International Edition

8. Chew, Lilian: Managing Derivative Risk, John Wiley, New Jersey.

9. Das, Satyajit: Swap & Derivative financing, Probus.

10. Hull, J.: Options: Futures and other Derivatives, Prentice Hall, New Delhi.

11. ICICI direct.com : FUTURES & OPTIONS.

12. Kolb, Robert W: Understanding Futures Markets, Prentice Hall Inc., New
Delhi.

13. www.bseindia.com

189
 UNIT - IV
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis has an important bearing on the study of price

behavior and has its own method in predicating significant price behavior.
Technical analysis is probably the most controversial aspect of investment
management. That technical analysis is a delusion, that it can never be more
useful in predicating stock performance than examining the insides of a dead
sheep, in the ancient Greek traditions.

Technical analysis involves a study of market generated data like prices

and volumes to determine the future direction of price movement. Martin J.
Pring explains as “The technical approach to investing is essentially a reflection
of the idea that prices move in trends which are determined by the changing
attitudes of investors toward a variety of economic, monetary, political and
psychological forces. The art of technical analysis-for it is an art-is to identify
trend changes at an early stage and to maintain an investment posture until the
weight of the evidence indicates that the trend has been reversed.

Basic assumption

The basic premises underlying technical analysis are as follows.

1. The market and / or an individual stock act like a barometer rather than a
thermometer. Events are usually discounted in advance with movements as the
likely result of informed buyers and sellers at work.

2. Before a stock experiences a mark-up phase, whether it is minor or major,

a period of accumulation usually will take place. Accumulation or distribution
activity can occur within natural trading trends. The ability to analyse

190
accumulation or distribution within net natural price patterns will be, therefore, a
most essential pre-requisite.

3. The third assumption is an observation that deals with the scope and
extends of market movements in relation to each other. In most cases, a small
phase of stock price consolidation – which is really phase of backing and filling
– will be followed by a relative short-term movement, up or down, in the stocks
price. On the other hand a larger consolidation phase can lead to a greater
potential stock price move.

Differences between Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis

The key differences between technical analysis and fundamental

analysis are as follows:

1. Technical analysis mainly seeks to predict short –term price

movements, whereas fundamental analysis tries to establish long-
term values.
2. The focus of technical analysis is mainly on internal market data,
particularly price and volume data. The focus of fundamental
analysis is on fundamental factors relating to the economy, the
industry, and the firm.
3. Technical analysis appeals mostly to short-term traders, whereas
fundamental analysis appeals primarily to long-term investors.

Charting - A Technical Tool

Technical analysts, while defining their own theory about stock price
behavior and criticizing the fundamental school, do feel that there is some merit
in the fundamental analysis also. But according to them, the method is very

191
tedious and it takes a rather long time for the common man to evaluate stocks
through this method. They consider their own techniques and charts as superior
to fundamental analysis. Some of their theories, techniques and methods of
stock prices are given below:

Concepts Underlying Chart Analysis

The basic concepts underlying chart analysis are: (a) persistence of

trends; (b) relationship between volume and trend; and (c) resistance and
support levels.
Trends: The key belief of the chartists is that stock prices tend to move in fairly
persistent trends. Stock price behavior is characterized by inertia: the price
movement continues along a certain path (up, down or sideways) until it meets
an opposing force, arising out of an altered supply-demand relationship.

Relationship between volume and trends: Chartists believe that generally

volume and trend go hand in hand. When a major upturn begins the volume of
trading increases as the price advances and decreases as the price declines. In a
major down turn, the opposite happens; the volume of trading increases as the
price declines and decreases as the price rallies.

Support and Resistance levels: Chartists assume that it is difficult for the price
of a share to rise above a certain level called the resistance level and fall below a
certain level called a support level. Why? The explanation for the first claim
goes as follows. If investors find that prices fall after their purchases, they
continue to hang on to their shares in the hope of a recovery. And when the price
rebounds to the level of their purchase price, they tend to sell and heave sigh of
relief as they break even. Such a behavioral tendency on the part of investors
stimulates considerable supply when the price rebounds to the level at which

192
substantial purchases were made by the investors. As a result, the share is not
likely to rise above this level, the resistance level.

The level at which a declining share may evoke a substantial increase in

demand is called the support level. This typically represents the level from
which the share rose previously with large trading volumes. As the price falls to
this level, there is a lot of demand from several quarters; those who ‘missed the
bus’ on the previous occasion and have regrets for their failure to partake in the
earlier advance; short-sellers who, having sold short, at higher levels, want to
book profits by squaring their positions; and value-oriented investors.

The Dow Theory

Dow Theory is the oldest and best known theory of technical analysis. In
the words of Charles Dow, “The market is always considered as having three
movements, all going at the same time. The first is the narrow movement from
day to day. The second is the short swing, running from two weeks to a month
or more; the third is the main movement, covering at least four years in its
duration.”

Proponents of the Wow theory refer to the three movements as: (a) daily
fluctuations that are random day-to-day wiggles; (b) secondary movements or
corrections that may last for a few weeks to some months; and (c) primary
trends representing bull and bear phases of the market.

An upward primary trend represents a bull market, whereas a downward

primary trend represents a bear market. A major upward move is said to occur
when the high point of each rally is higher than the high point of the preceding
rally and the low point of each decline is higher than the low point of the
preceding decline. Likewise, a major downward move is said to occur when the

193
high point of each rally is lower than the high point of the preceding rally and
the low point of each decline is lower than the low point of the preceding
decline.

The secondary movement represents technical correction. They represent

adjustments to the excesses that may have occurred in the primary movements.
These movements are considered quite significant in the application of the Dow
Theory.

The daily fluctuations are considered to be minus significance. Even

zealous technical analysts do not usually try to forecast day-to-day movements
in the market.
Figure 1 illustrates the concept of Dow Theory.

Fig. 1
Bar and Line Charts

The bar chart, one of the simplest and most commonly used tools of
technical analysis, depicts the daily price range along with the closing price. In
addition, it may show the daily volume of transactions. Figure 2 shows an
illustrative bar chart. The upper end of each bar represents the day’s highest
price and the lower end the day’s lowest price. The small cross across the bar
marks the day’s closing price.
A line chart, a simplification over the bar chart, shows the line
connecting successive closing prices. Figure 3 shows the line chart.

Fig.2 Fig. 3

194
 Technical analysts believe that certain formations or patterns observed on
the bar chart or line chart have predictive value. The more important formations
and their indications are described below.

Head and Shoulders Top (HST) formation has a left shoulder, a head, and a
right shoulder. The HST formation represents a bearish development. If the
price falls below the neckline (the line drawn tangentially to the left and right
shoulders), a price decline is expected. Hence, it is a signal to sell.

Inverse Head and Shoulders Top (IHST) formation is the inverse of the HST
formation. Hence, it reflects a bullish development. If the price rises above the
neckline, a price rise is expected. Hence, it is signaling to buy.

Triangle or Coil Formation represents a pattern of uncertainty. Hence, it is

difficult to predict which way the price will break out.

Flags and Pennants Formation typically signifies a pause after which the
previous price trend is likely to continue.

Double Top Formation represents a bearish development, signaling that the

price is expected to fall.

Double Bottom Formation reflects a bullish development, signaling that the

price is expected to rise. Fig.4

Point and Figure Charts

The point and figure charts are represented by Xs and Os. These are
more difficult to calculate the stock prices than the line charts and bar charts.
These are drawn by the technical analysts to make a forecast of prices and also
195
to find out the trend in prices. It is usually the reversal in trend which can be
found out by sub-charts. The price forecasts made by the point and figure charts
are called price targets.
Fig. 5

Technical indicators

There are numerous technical indicators that collectively add up to

organized confusion. Some of the major technical indicators are described in the
following sections.

The Short Interest Ratio Theory: The short interest ratio is derived by
dividing the reported short interest or the number of shares sold short, by the
average volume for about 30 days. When short sales increase relative to total
volume, the indicator rises. A ratio above 150per cent is considered bullish, and
a ratio below 100 per cent is considered bearish.

The logic behind this ratio is that speculators and other investors sell
stocks at high prices in anticipation of buying them back at lower prices. Thus,
increasing short selling is viewed as a sign of general market weakness, and
short covering (as evidenced by decreasing short positions) as a sign of strength.
An existing large short interest is considered a sign of strength, since the covers
(buyers) are yet to come; whereas an established slight short interest is
considered a sign of weakness (more short sales are to come).

Confidence Index: It is the ratio of a group of lower-grade bonds to a group of

higher-grade bounds. According to the theory underlying this index, when the
ratio is high, investors’ confidence is likewise high, as reflected by their
purchase of relatively more of the lower- grade securities. When they buy

196
relatively more of the higher grade securities, this is taken as an indication that
confidence is low, and is reflected in a low ratio.

Spreads: Large spreads between yields indicate low confidence and are bearish;
the market appears to require a large compensation for business, financial and
inflation risks. Small spreads indicate high confidence and are bullish. In short,
the larger the spreads, the lower the ratio and the less the confidence. The
smaller the spreads, the greater the ratio, indicating greater confidence.

Advance-Decline Ratio: The index relating advances to decline is called the

advance decline ratio. When advances persistently outnumber decline the ratio
increases. A bullish condition is said to exist, and vice versa. Thus, advance
decline ratio tries to capture the market’s underlying strength by taking into
account the number of advancing and declining issues.

Market Breadth Index is a variant of the advance decline ratio. To compute it,
we take the net difference between the number of stocks rising and the number
of stocks falling added (or subtracted) to the previous. For example, if in a given
week 600 shares advanced, 200 shares declined, and 200 were unchanged, the
breadth would be 2[(600-200)/200]. The figure of each week is added to
previous weeks. These data are than plotted to establish the pattern of movement
of advances and declines.

The purpose of the market breadth index is to indicate whether a

confirmation of some index has occurred. If both the stock index and market
breadth increase, the market is bullish; when the stock index increases but the
breadth index does not, the market is bearish.

The Odd-Lot Ratio: Odd-lot transactions are measured by odd-lot changes in

the index. Odd-lots are stock transactions of less than, say, 100 shares. The odd-

197
lot ratio is sometimes referred to as a yardstick of uniformed sentiment or an
index of contrary opinion because the odd- lot theory assumes that small buyers
or sellers are not very bright especially at tops and bottoms when they nee to be
brightest. The odd-lot short ratio theory assumes that the odd-lot short sellers are
even more likely to be wrong than odd-lotters in general. This indicator relates
odd-lot sales to purchases.

Insider Transactions: The hypothesis that insider activity may be indicative of

future stock prices has received some support in the academic literature. Since
insiders may have the best picture of how the firm is faring, some believers of
technical analysis feel that these inside transactions offer a clue, to future
earnings, dividend and stock price performance. If the insiders are selling
heavily, it is considered a bearish indicator and vice versa. Stock holders do not
like to hear that the president of a company is selling large blocks of stock of the
company. Although the president’s reason for selling the stock may not be
related to the future growth of the company, it is still considered bearish as
investors figure the president, as an insider, must know something bad about the
company that they, as outsiders, do not know.

Moving Average is a smoothed presentation of underlying historical data. Each

data point is the arithmetic average of a portion of the previous data. A ten-day
moving average measures the average over the previous ten trading days; a
twenty-day moving average measures average values over the previous twenty
days, and so on. Regardless of the time period used, each day a new observation
is included in the calculation and the oldest is dropped, so a constant number of
points are always being averaged.

198
 Advocates of moving averages in stock selection believe that changes in
slope of the line are important. A stock twenty-day moving average line has been
trending up might become a candidate for sale if the line turns downward.

Evaluation of Technical Analysis

The advocates of technical analysis offer the following interrelated

arguments in support of their position.
1. Under the influence of crowd psychology, trends persist for quite
sometime. Tools of technical analysis that help in identifying these
trends early are helpful aids in investment decision making.
2. Shifts in demand and supply are gradual rather than instantaneous.
Technical analysis helps in detecting these shifts rather early and
hence provides clues to future price movements.
3. Fundamental information about a company is absorbed and
assimilated by the market over a period of time. Hence, the price
movement trends to continue in more or less the same direction till
the information is fully assimilated in the stock price.
4. Charts provide a picture of what has happened in the past and hence
give a sense of volatility that can be expected from the stock.
Further, the information on trading volume which is ordinarily
provided at the bottom of a bar chart gives a fair idea of the extent of
public interest in the stock.

The arguments against the technical analysis are,

1. Most technical analysts are not able to offer convincing explanations

for the tools employed by them.
2. Empirical evidence in support of the random-walk hypothesis casts
its shadow over the usefulness of technical analysis.
199
 3. By the time an uptrend or downtrend may have been signaled by
technical analysis, it may already have taken place.
4. Ultimately, technical analysis must be self-defeating proposition. As
more and more people employ it, the value of such analysis tends to
decline.
5. The numerous claims that have been made for different chart patterns
are simply untested assertions.
5. There is a great deal of ambiguity in the identification of
configurations as well as trend lines and channels on the charts. The
same chart can be interpreted differently.

Conclusion:

As an approach to investment analysis, technical analysis is radically

different from fundamental analysis. Technical analysts don’t evaluate a large
number of fundamental factors relating to the company, the industry, and the
economy. Instead they analyse market generated data like prices and volumes to
determine the future direction of price movement. The technical analysts believe
that their method was simple and give an investor a bird’s eye on the future of
security price by measuring the past moves of prices. The technical analysts
predicted price behavior through line charts, bar charts and point and figure
charts. They have a large number of patters which predict the upward and
downward swing in the market. There are a large number of theories which also
predict the future of prices.

200
Review Questions
1. Explain in detail the Dow Theory and how is it used to determine the
direction of stock market?
2. How are odd lot and short sales index used to determine the direction of the
market?
3. ‘Chart patterns are helpful in predicting the stock price movement’.
Comment.
4. Discuss the relationship between fundamental analysis and efficient market
hypotheses.
5. Technical analysis is based on Dow Jones Theory. Elucidate?
6. What are charts? How are they interpreted in technical analysis?

201
 EFFICIENT MARKET THEORY

The efficient market hypothesis is a central idea of a modern finance that

has profound implications. An understanding of the efficient market hypothesis
will help to ask the right questions and save from a lot of confusion that
dominates popular thinking in finance.

An efficient market is one in which the market price of a security is an

unbiased estimate of its intrinsic value. Note that market efficiency does not
imply that the market price equals intrinsic value at every point in time. All that
it says is that the errors in the market prices are unbiased. This means that the
price can deviate from the intrinsic value but the deviations are random and
correlated with any observable variable. If the deviations of market price from
intrinsic value are random, it is not possible to consistently identify over or
under-valued securities.

Market efficiency is defined in relation to information that is reflected in

security prices. In an efficient market, all the relevant information is reflected in
the current stock price. Information cannot be used to obtain excess return: the
information has already been taken into account and absorbed in the prices. In
other words, all prices are correctly stated and there are no “bargains” in the
stock market. James H. Lorie explained efficient security market as “Efficiency
in this context means the ability of the capital markets to function so that prices
of securities react rapidly to new information. Such efficiency will produce
prices that are ‘appropriate’ in terms of current knowledge, and investors will be
less likely to make unwise investments. A corollary is that investors will also be
less likely to discover great bargains and thereby earn extraordinary high rates of
return.

202
 The requirements for a securities market to be efficient market are; (1)
Prices must be efficient so that new inventions and better products will cause a
firm’s securities prices to rise and motivate investors to supply capital to the
firm (i.e., buy its stock); (2) Information must be discussed freely and quickly
across the nations so all investors can react to new information; (3)
Transactions costs such as sales commissions on securities are ignored; (4)
Taxes are assumed to have no noticeable effect on investment policy; (5) Every
investor is allowed to borrow or lend at the same rate; and, finally, (6) Investors
must be rational and able to recognize efficient assets and that they will want to
invest money where it is needed most (i.e., in the assets with relatively high
returns).

Forms of Efficient Market Hypothesis

Eugene Fama suggested that it is useful to distinguish three levels of

market efficiency. They are 1) Weak-form efficiency - Prices reflect all
information found in the record of past and volumes; 2) Semi-strong form
efficiency - Prices reflect not only all information found in the record of past
prices and volumes but also all other publicly available information; 3) Strong-
form efficiency - Prices reflect all available information, public as well as
private.

Weak form of EMH

The week form of market holds that present stock market prices reflect
all known information with respect to past stock prices, trends, and volumes.
This form of theory is just the opposite of the technical analysis because
according to it, the sequence of prices occurring historically does not have any
value for predicting the future stocks prices. The technical analysts rely
completely on charts and past behavior of prices of stocks.
203
 In the week form of the market no investor can use any information of
the past to earn a return of portfolio which is in excess of the portfolio’s risk.
This means that the investor who develops the strategy based on past prices and
chooses his portfolio on that basis cannot continuously out perform another
investor who ‘buys and holds’ his investments over a long term period.

The question which has rapidly been studied is whether “security prices
follow a random walk.” A random walk when it is applied to security prices
means that all price changes which have occurred today are completely
independent of the prices prior to this day in all respects. The weak form of the
efficient market theory takes into consideration only the average change of
today’s prices and states that they are independent of all prior prices. The
evidence supporting the random walk behavior also supports the efficient market
hypothesis and states that the large price changes are followed by larger price
changes, but they do not change in any direction which can be predicated. This
observation in a way violates the random walk behavior that it does not violate
the weak form of the market efficiency. Researches have studied that the
evidence which supports the efficient market behavior is based on the random
walk behavior of security prices but there is evidence which contradicts the
random walk hypothesis. This does not mean that it contradicts the efficient
market hypothesis also.

Three types of tests have been commonly employed to empirically verify

the weak-form efficient market hypothesis: (a) serial correlation tests; (b) runs
tests; and (c) filter rules tests.

Serial Correlation Test: Serial Correlation is said to measure the association

of a series of numbers which are separated by some constant time period. One
way to test for randomness in stock price changes is to look at their serial

204
correlations. Is the price change in one period correlated with the price change in
some other period? If such auto-correlations are negligible, the price changes are
considered to be serially independent. Numerous serial correlation studies,
employing different stocks, different time-lags, and different time-periods, have
been conducted to detect serial correlations. In general, these studies have failed
to discover any significant serial correlations.

Moore measured correlation of the price change of one week with the
price change of the next week with the price change of the next week. His
research showed average serial correlation of -0.06 which indicated a very low
tendency of security price to reverse dates. This means that a price rise did not
show the tendency to follow the price fall or vice versa. Fama also tested the
serial correlation of daily price changes in 1965. He studied the correlation for
30 firms which composed of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages for five years
before 1962. His study showed an average correlation of -0.03. This correlation
was also weak because it was not very far away from zero.

Run Test: Ren Test was also made by Fama to find out it price changes were
likely to be followed by further price changes of the same sign. Run Test
ignored the absolute values of numbers in the series and took into the research
only the positive and negative signs. Given a series of stock price changes, each
price (+) id it represents an increase or a minus (-) if it represents a decrease. A
run occurs when there is not difference between the sign of two changes. When
the sign of change differs, the run ends and a new run begin. To test a series of
price changes for independence, the number of runs in that series is compared to
see whether it is statistically different from the number of runs in a purely
random series of the same size. Many studies have been carried out, employing
the runs test of independence. They did not detect any significant relationship

205
between the returns of security in one period and the returns in prior periods and
made a conclusion that the security prices followed a random walk.

Filter Rules Test: The use of charts is essentially a technique for filtering out
the important information from the unimportant. Alexander and Fama and
Blume took the idea that price and volume data are supposed to tell the entire
story we need to know to identify the important action in stock prices. They
applied filter rules to see how well price changes pick up both trends and
reverses – which chartists claim their charts do. If a stock moves up X per cent,
buy it and hold it long; if it then reverses itself by the same percentage, sell it
and take a short position in it. When the stock reverses itself again by X per
cent cover the short position and buy the stock long.

The size of the filter varied from 0.5 to 50 percent. The results showed
that the larger filter did not work well. The smaller ones worked better, since
they were more sensitive to market swings. However, when trading costs are
included in the analysis, no filter worked well. In fact, substantial losses would
have been incurred using these filter rules.

In essence the result of using the filter technique turn out to be that stock
prices do not have momentum from which one can make returns in excess of
those warranted by the level of risk assumed. In fact, because of trading costs,
we would have been substantially better off buying a random set of stocks and
holding them during the same trading period.

Semi-Strong Form of EMH

The semi strong form of the efficient market hypothesis centers on how
rapidly and efficiently market prices adjust to new publicly available
information. In this state, the market reflects even those forms of information

206
which may be concerning the announcement of a firm’s most recent earnings
forecast and adjustments which will have taken place in the prices of security.
The investor in the semi-strong form of the market will find it impossible to earn
a return on the portfolio which is based on the publicly available information in
excess of the return which may be said to be commensurate with the portfolio
risk. Many empirical studies have been made on the semi-strong form of the
efficient market hypothesis to study the reaction of security prices to various
types of information around the announcement time of the information.

Two studies commonly employed to test semi-strong form efficient

market are event study and portfolio study.

Event Study examines the market reactions to and the excess market returns
around a specific information event like acquisition announcement or stock split.
The key steps involved in an event study are as follows:

1. Identify the event to be studied and pinpoint the date on which the
event was announced.
2. Collect returns data around the announcement date. In this context two
issues have to be resolved: What should be the period for calculating
returns – weekly, daily, or some other interval? For how many periods
should returns be calculated before and after the announcement date?
3. Calculate the excess returns, by period, around the announcement date
for each firm in the sample. The excess return is calculated by making
adjustment for market performance and risk.
4. Compute the average and the standard error of excess returns across all
firms
5. Assess whether the excess returns around the announcement date are
different from zero. To determine whether the excess returns around

207
 the announcement date are different from zero, estimate the T statistic
for each day.

The results of event studies are mixed. Most event studies support the
semi-strong from efficient market hypothesis. Several event studies, however,
have cast their shadow over the validity of the semi strong form efficient
markets theory.

Portfolio study: In a portfolio study, a portfolio of stocks having the observable

characteristic (low price earnings ratio or whatever) is created and tracked over
time see whether it earns superior risk-adjusted returns. Steps involved in a
portfolio study are as follows:
1. Define the variable (characteristic) on which firms will be classified.
The proposed investment strategy spells out the relevant variable. The
variable must be observable, but not necessarily numerical.
2. Classify firms into portfolios based upon the magnitude of the variable.
Collect data on the variable for every firm in the defined universe at
the beginning of the period and use that information for classifying
firms into different portfolios.
3. Compute the returns for each portfolio on the returns for each firm in
each portfolio for the testing period and calculate the return for each
portfolio, assuming that the stocks included in the portfolio are equally
weighted.
4. Calculate the excess returns for each portfolio. The calculation of
excess returns earned by a portfolio calls for estimating the portfolio
beta and determining the excess returns
5. Assess whether the average excess returns are different across the
portfolios. Several statistical tests are available to test whether the

208
 average excess returns differ across these portfolios. Some of these
tests are parametric and some nonparametric.

Many portfolio studies suggest that it is not possible to earn superior risk-
adjusted returns by trading on some observable characteristics. However,
several portfolio studies have documented inefficiencies and anomalies.

Strong-Form of EMH

The strong-form efficient market hypothesis holds that all available

information, public or private, is reflected in the stock prices. The strong form is
concerned with whether or not certain individuals or groups of individuals
possess inside information which can be used to make above average profits. If
the strong form of the efficient capital market hypothesis holds, then and day is
as good as any other day to buy any stock. This the most extreme form of the
efficient market hypothesis. Most of the research work has indicated that the
efficient market hypothesis in the strongest form does not hold good.

Market Efficiency and Anomalies

Anomalies are situations that appear to violate the traditional view of

market efficiency, suggesting that it may be possible for careful investors to earn
abnormal returns. Some stock market anomalies are

Low Price-Earnings Ratio: Stock that are selling at price earnings

ratios that are low relative to the market

Low Price-Sales Ratio: Stocks that have price-to-sales ratios that

are lower competed with other stocks in
the same industry or with the overall
market

209
 Low Price-to Book value Ratio: Stocks whose stock prices are less that their
respective book values

High Divident Yield: Stocks that pay high dividends relative to

their respective share prices

Small companies: Stock of companies whose market

capitalization is less than 100 million

Neglected Stocks: Stocks followed by only a few analysts

and/or stocks with low percentages of
institutional ownership

Stocks with High Relative Strength: Stocks whose prices have risen faster
relative to the overall market

January Effect: Stock do better during January than during any

other month of the year

Day of the Week: Stock of poorer during Monday than during

other days of the week

Most of these anomalies appear to revolve around four themes:

1. Markets tend to overreact to news, both good and bad.
2. Value investing is contrarians in nature and is beneficial because
markets overreact.
3. The market consistently ignores certain stocks, especially small stocks.
Let’s examine what anomalies mean for investors and the concept of market
efficiency.

Financial Market Overreaction: One of the most intriguing issues to emerge

in the past few years is the notion of market overreaction to new information
(both positive and negative). Many practitioners have insisted for years that
markets to overreact. Recent statistical evidence for both the market as a whole
and individual security has shown errors in security prices that are systematic
210
and therefore predictable. Overreactions are sometimes called reversals. Stocks
that perform poorly in period suddenly reverse direction and start performing
well in a subsequent period, and vice versa.

Several studies have found that stock returns over longer time horizons
(in excess of one year) display significant negative serial correlation. This
means that high returns in one time period tend to be followed by low returns in
the next period, and vice versa.

Other studies have tested for market overreaction by forming portfolios

of winners and losers based on performance over a specific time period and then
measuring these portfolios performance records over subsequent periods of time.
One study, for example, found that over the next year a portfolio of losers earned
about 15 per cent more on average than did a portfolio of “winners”.

Market overreaction may offer the best explanation for several of the
anomalies. For example, low price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) stocks may be
analogous to the losers we described above, or they may be the current investor
favorites, or winners. As the market demonstrates almost daily, today’s favorite
stocks can fall from grace and reverse direction very quickly.

Profiting from Reversals: Market overreactions or reversals suggest several

possible investment strategies to produce abnormal profits. Some possibilities
include buying last year’s worst performing stocks, avoiding stocks with high
P/E rations, or buying on bad news. At the risk of oversimplifying, any
investment strategy based on market overreaction represents a contrarian
approach to invest, buying what appears to be out of favour with most investors.
But does value investing work? Can you do better following the value oriented
anomalies listed?

211
 There are many studies, done by both academics and practitioners that
suggest that buying stocks with low price-to-sales rations, low price-to-book
ratios, or low P/E ratios produced returns that were higher, on average, than
those from the overall market, even after adjusting for higher transactions costs.
These findings support the notion that contrarian/value investing may indeed
work.

Although value investing appears to work, it requires several caveats.

First, stocks with low P/E ratios are not necessarily cheap, not are stocks with
high P/E ratios necessarily expensive. The inverse relationship between value
and P/E (or market-to-book value) ratios is far from perfect. Some stocks may
have low (or high)P/E ratios for very good reasons. Further, value is definitely
in the eye of the beholder; one person’s bargain is another person’s overvalued
pariah.

For another caveat, remember that very good economic reason may drive
some reversals. Reversing prices may be responding to new information and
correcting an overreaction. Also, a poor performer may continue to perform
poorly as the company continues to slide downhill. The fact that a company had
a lousy year this year does not mean it will automatically have a good one next
year. Further, the timing of a reversal can be very difficult to predict. Investors
have shunned some individual stocks and groups of stocks for long periods of
time, whereas other stocks have revered direction quickly.

Finally, think about what would happen if every investor suddenly

became a contrarian. If contrarian investing really does offer abnormal profit
opportunities, we would expect the wise investors to exploit opportunities
aggressively. Soon competition would eliminate these opportunities.

212
Remember, apparent past success of value investing is no guarantee that it will
work in the future.

Calendar-Based Anomalies: Are there better times to own stocks than others?
Should you avoid stocks on certain days? The evidence seems to suggest that
several calendar-based anomalies exist. The two best known, and widely
documented, are the weekend effect and the January effect.

Weekend Effect: Studies of daily returns began with the goal of testing
whether the markets operate on calendar time or trading time. In other words,
are returns for Mondays (i.e., returns over Friday-to-Monday periods) different
from the other day of the week returns? The answer to the question turned out to
be yes, the trend was called the weekend effect. Monday returns were
substantially lower than other daily returns. One study found that Mondays
produced a mean return of almost-35 percent. By contrast, the mean annualized
returns on Wednesdays was more than +25 per cent.

The January Effect: Stock returns appear to exhibit seasonal return patterns as
well. In other words, returns are systematically higher in some months than in
others. Initial studies found that returns were higher in January for all stocks
(thus this anomaly was dubbed the January effect) whereas later studies found
the January effect was more pronounced for small stocks than for large ones.

One widely accepted explanation for the January effect is tax-loss selling
by the investors at the end of December. Because this selling pressure depresses
prices at the end of the year, it would be reasonable to expect a bounce-back in
prices during January. Small stocks, the argument goes, are more susceptible to
the January effect because their prices are more volatile, and institutional

213
investors (many of whom are tax-exempt) are less likely to invest in shares of
small companies.

Calendar-Based Trading Strategies: Both seasonal and day-of-the-week

affects are inconsistent with market efficiency because both suggest that
historical information can generate abnormal profits. As will all anomalies,
however, a more important issue is whether seasonal and/ or day-of-the-week
effects can create profit opportunities for investors. Should you, for example,
always buy stocks at the close of trading on Monday and sell them at the close
of trading on Wednesdays?

Although differences in daily returns appear impressive, they are

probably much too small to offset transaction costs. The January effect appears
to have far more profit potential. However, once profitable investment strategies
are recognized, it is reasonable to expect other investors to aggressively exploit
them eventually eliminating the profit potential. This may be happening to the
January effect. Entire books have been published about this widely recognized
anomaly, and it may be disappearing.

Small-Firm Effect: Generally the stocks of small companies substantially

outperform stocks of large companies. Of course, history has also shown that
small stocks have exhibited more year-to-year variation than large stocks.
However, even after correcting for differences in risk, some studies suggest that
investors can earn abnormal profits by investing in shares of small companies,
exploiting the small-firm effect.

Two explanations for the small-firm effect seem plausible to us. The first
is that analysts have applied the wrong risk measures to evaluate returns from
small stocks. Small stocks may well be riskier than these traditional risk
measures indicate. If proper risk measures were used, the argument goes, the
214
small-firm effect might disappear, and Small-firm stocks may not generate larger
risk-adjusted returns than large stocks. Although the risk of small stocks may not
be adequately captured by standard risk measures, it is hard to believe that better
measures of risk would eliminate the entire small-firm effect.

Another explanation for the small-firm effect is that large institutional

investors often overlook small-firm stocks. Consequently, less information is
available on small companies. (They are also followed by fewer analysts.) One
could argue that this information deficiency makes small-firm stocks riskier
investments, but one could also argue that discovery of a neglected small-firm
stock by the institutions could send its price rising as the institutions start buying
it. The small-firm effect may arise from the continuous process of discovery of
neglected small-firm stocks leading to purchases by institutional investors.

Whatever the explanation, small-firm stocks, although riskier than large-

firm stocks, have historically provided substantial returns to investors, far higher
than those produced by large-firm stocks. Of course, we can only speculate
about whether this relationship will continue in the future.

Performance of Investment Professionals: Investment professionals such as

mutual fund managers seem to have a difficult time beating the overall market.
In a particular year, some professionals will beat the market, whereas others will
not. The key question is whether some professionals can consistently outperform
the market. Some evidence suggests that the answer to this question may be yes.

Conclusion

Despite the anomalies and puzzles and the challenge of behaviouralists

and their sympathizers, the substantial evidence in favour of the efficient market
hypothesis cannot be gainsaid. The advocates of efficient market hypothesis
215
argue that it is not surprising that several anomalies and puzzles have been
found. When data is mined extensively, one is bound to find a number of
patterns. Even if inefficiencies exist, it is difficult to take advantage of them.
The efficient market hypothesis, like all theories, is an imperfect and limited
description of the stock market. However, at least for the present, there does not
seem to be a better alternative.

Review Questions

1. What are the empirical evidences of the weak form of market efficiency?
2. Discuss the results of the studies that support the semi-strong form of EMH.
3. Explain the strong form of market efficiency with empirical evidences.
4. How does efficient market hypothesis differ from the technical analysis?
5 What is Random Walk theory? What does it project in its weak form, semi-
strong form and strong form?
6. Discuss the empirical tests conducted on the different forms of the random
walk.
7. The random walk hypothesis resembles the fundamental school of
thought but is contrary to the technical analysis. Discuss?

8. Define the various forms of the market efficiency. What do they have in
common?
9. “Indian stock market is efficient”. Do you agree? Discuss.

216
 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS

Security analysis related to the analysis of individual securities within

the framework of return and risk. Whereas, Portfolio analysis makes an analysis
of securities in the combined form.

The portfolio analysis considers the determination of future risk and

return in holding various blends of individual securities. Portfolio expected
return is a weighted average of the expected return of individual securities but
portfolio variance can be something less than a weighted average of security
variances. As a result an investor can sometimes reduce portfolio risk by adding
another security with greater individual risk than any other security in the
portfolio. This result occurs because risk depends greatly on the covariance
among returns of individual securities. Estimation of the expected return and
expected risk level of a given portfolio of assets are discussed in the following
paragraphs.

Returns

The expected return of a portfolio depends on the expected return of each

of the security contained in the portfolio. It also seems logical that the amounts
invested in each security should be important. Indeed, this is the case. The
example of a portfolio with three securities shown in Table-1A illustrates this
point. The expected holding period value-relative for the portfolio is clearly:
Rs.23, 100
------------ = 1.155
Rs.20, 000
giving an expected holding period return of 15.50%.

217
 Table-1B combines the information in a different manner. The portfolio’s
expected holding-period value-relative is simply a weighted average of the
expected value-relative of its component securities, using current market values
as weights.Table-1C provides holding-period returns. It is simply 100 times the
value obtained by subtracting one from the holding period value- relative. Thus
a weighted average of the former will have the same characteristics as a
weighted average of the former will have the same characteristics as a weighted
average of the latter.
TABLE 1
(a) Security and Portfolio Values
Expected End- Expected End-
No. of Current
Current of- of-
Security Price
Shares Value Period Share Period Share
Per Share
Price Value
1 2 3 4 5 6
A 100 Rs.15.00 1,500 Rs.18.00 Rs.1,800
B 150 20.00 3,000 22.00 3,300
C 200 40.00 8,000 45.00 9,000
D 250 25.00 6,250 30.00 7,500
E 100 12.50 1,250 15.00 1,500
Rs.20,000 Rs.23,100

218
Security and Portfolio Values-Relatives
Contributio
Proportio Expecte Expecte n to
Sec n of Current d d Portfolio
urit Current Current Price End-of- Holding Expected
y Value value Per Period -Period Holding-
of Share Share value- Period
Properties Price Relative Value-
Relative
3=2
1 2 4 5 6=5/4 7=3x6
Rs.20,000
A 1,500 .0750 Rs.15.00 Rs.18.00 1.200 0.090000
B 3,000 .1500 20.00 22.00 1.100 0.165000
C 8,000 .4000 40.00 45.00 1.125 0.450000
D 6,250 .3125 25.00 30.00 1.200 0.375000
E 1,250 .0625 12.50 15.00 1.200 0.075000
Rs.20,000 1.0000 1.155000

(b) Security and Portfolio Holding-Period Returns

Proportion of Contribution to Portfolio
Current Price Per
Security Current value of Expected Holding Period
Properties Share
Return (%)
1 2 3 4
A .0750 Rs.15.00 1.50
B .1500 20.00 1.50
C .4000 40.00 5.00
D .3125 25.00 6.25
E .0625 12.50 1.25
1.0000 15.50

Since portfolios expected return is a weighted average of the expected

returns of its securities, the contribution of each security to the portfolio’s
expected returns depends on its expected returns and its proportionate share of
the initial portfolio’s market value. Nothing else is relevant. It follows that an
investor who simply wants the greatest possible expected return should hold one

219
security: the one which is considered to have the greatest expected return. Very
few investors do this, and very view investment advisers would counsel such an
extreme policy. Instead, investors should diversify, meaning that their portfolio
should include more than one security. This is because diversification can
reduce risk.

Risk
The probability of loss is the essence of risk. A useful measure of risk
takes into account both the probability of various possible “bad” outcomes and
their associated magnitudes. Instead of measuring the probability of a number of
different possible outcomes, the measure of risk should somehow estimate the
extent to which the actual outcome is likely to diverge from the expected.

Two measures used for this purpose are the mean absolute deviation and
the standard deviation. Table 2A shows how the average absolute deviation can
be calculated. First the expected return is determined; In this case it is 10.00 per
cent. Next, each possible outcome is analyzed to determine the amount by which
the value deviated from the expected amount. These figures shown in Column
(5) of the table include both positive and negative values. As shown in Column
(6), a weighted average, using probabilities as weights, will equal zero. This is a
mathematical necessity, given the way expected value is calculated. To assess
the risk the signs of deviations can simply be ignored. As shown in column (7),
the weighted average of the absolute values of the deviations, using the
probabilities as weights, is 10 per cent. This constitutes the first measure of
“likely” deviation.

220
 TABLE 2
A. Calculating the Mean Absolute Deviation
Probabilit
Probabilit Probability
Even Probabilit Return Deviati y
y X Absolute
t y % on X
X Return Deviation
Deviation
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
a .20 -10 -2.0 -25.0 -5.0 5.0
b .40 25 10.0 10.0 4.0 4.0
c .30 20 6.0 5.0 1.5 1.5
d .10 10 -1.0 -5.0 -0.5 0.5
Expected Return = 15.0 0 Average =
10.0
Absolute
Deviation

B. Calculating the Standard Deviation

Probabilit Probability X
Event Deviation Deviation Squared
y Deviation Squared
(1) (2) (3) (4) = (3)2 (5) = (2) x (4)
a .20 -25.0 625.0 125.0
b .40 10.0 100.0 40.0
c .30 5.0 25.0 7.5
d .10 -5.0 25.0 2.4
Variation = Weighted average squared deviation = 175.0
Standard Deviation = square root of variance = 13.2287

Table 2B presents slightly more complex but preferably analytical

measure. In this, the deviations are squared (making the value all positive); then
a weighted average of these amounts is taken, using the probabilities as weights.
The result is termed the variance. It is converted to the original units by taking
the square root. The result is termed the standard deviation.

221
 Although the two measures are often interchangeable in this manner, the
standard deviation is generally preferred for investment analysis. The reason is
simple. The standard deviation of a portfolio’s return can be determined from
(among other things) the standard deviations of the returns of its components
securities, no matter what the distributions. No relationship of comparable
simplicity exists for the average absolute deviations.

When an analyst predicts that a security will return 15% next year, he or
she is presumably stating something comparable to an expected value. If asked
to express the uncertainty about the outcome, he or she might reply that the odds
are 2 out of 3 that the actual return will be within 10% of the estimate (i.e. 5%
and 25%). The standard deviation is a formal measure of uncertainty, or risk,
expressed in this manner, just as the expected value is a formal measure of a
“best guess” estimate. Most analysts make such predictions directly, without
explicitly assessing probabilities and making the requisite computations.

Portfolio Risk

In order estimate the total risk of a portfolio of assets, several estimates

are needed: the variance of each individual asset under consideration for
inclusion in the portfolio and the covariance, or correlation co-efficient, of each
asset with each of the other assets.

Table 3A shows the returns on two securities and on a portfolio that

includes both of them. Security X constitutes 60 per cent of the market value of
the portfolio and security Y the other 40 per. The predicted return on the
portfolio is simply a weighted average of the predicted returns on the securities,
using the proportionate values as weights. Summary measures show values
computed from the estimates in Table 3B. The expected return for the portfolio
is simply the weighted average of the expected returns on its securities, using the

222
proportionate values as weights (17.0% = 6 x 15% + 4 x 20%). However, this is
not true for either the variance or the standard deviation of return for the
portfolio smaller than the corresponding values for either of the component
securities. This rather surprising result has a simple explanation. The risk of a
portfolio depends not only on the risk of its securities, considered in isolation,
but also on the extent to which they are affected similarly by underlying events.
To illustrate this, two extreme cases are shown in Table 4. In the first case both

TABLE 3
Portfolio and Security Risks
A. RETURN
Even Return on Return on
Probability Return on Portfolio
t Security X Security Y
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) = 6 x (3) + 4 x (4)
a .20 -10% 5.0% -4.0%
b .40 25 30.0 27.0
c .30 20 20.0 20.0
d .10 10 10.0 10.0

B. SUMMARY MEASURES
Security X Security Y Portfolio
Expected Return 15.0 20.0 17.0
Variance of Return 175.0 95.0 135.8
Standard deviation of 13.2287 9.7468 11.65
Return

223
 C. COVARIANCE AND CORRELATIONS
Deviation
Deviation
of Return Probability
Even Probabilit of Return Product of
for Times Product
t y for Security Deviation
Security Y of Deviation
X
(5) = (3) x
(1) (2) (3) (4) (6) = (2) x (5)
(4)
a .20 -25.0% -15.0% 375 75.00
b .40 10.0 10.0 100 40.00
c .30 5.0 0 0 0
d .10 -5.0 -10.0 50 5.00
Covariance = 120
120.00
Correlation co-efficient = = 0.9307
13.2287 x 9.7468

The variance and the standard deviation of the portfolio are the same as
the corresponding values for the securities. Then diversification has no effect
at all on risk. In the second case the situation is very different. Here the
security’s returns offset one another in such a manner that the particular
combination that makes up this portfolio has no risk at all. Diversification has
completely eliminated risk. The difference between these two cases concerns the
extent to which the security’s returns are correlated i.e., tend to “to-together”.
Either of two measures can be used to state the degree of such a relationship: the
covariance or the correlation co-efficient.

224
 TABLE 4
Risk and Return for a Two-Security Portfolio
A. TWO SECURITIES WITH EQUAL RETURNS
Even Return on Return on Return on
t Probability
Security X % Security Y % Portfolio
(5) = 6 x (3) + 4 x
(1) (2) (3) (4) (4)
A .20 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0
B .40 25.0 25.0 25.0
C .30 20.0 20.0 20.0
D .10 10.0 10.0 10.0
Expected Return 15.0 15.0 15.0
Variance of Return 175.0 175.0 175.0
Standard deviation of 13.2287 13.2287 13.2287
Return

B. TWO SECURITIES WITH OFFSETING RETURNS

Even Return on Return on Return on
t Probability Security X % Security Y % Portfolio
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
A .20 -10. 40.0 10.0
B .40 25.0 -20.0 10.0
C .30 20.0 -5.0 10.0
D .10 10.0 10.0 10.0
Expected Return (%) 15.0 -0.5 10.0
Variance of Return 175.0 37.47 0
Standard deviation 13.228 6.1217 0

The computations required to obtain the covariance for the two securities
are presented in Tab le 3C. The deviation of each security’s return from its
expected value is determined and the product of the two obtained (column 5).
The variance is simply a weighted average of such products, using the
probabilities of the events as weights. A positive value for the covariance
225
indicates that the securities returns tend to go together – for example, a better-
that-expected return for one is likely to occur along with a better-than-expected
return for the other. A small or zero value for the covariance indicates that there
is little or no relationship between the two returns. The correlation coefficient is
obtained by dividing the covariance by the product of the two security’s
standard deviation. As shown in Table – 3C, in this case the value is 0.9307.

Correlation coefficients always lie between +1.0 and –1.0, inclusive.

The former value represents perfect positive correlation, of the type shown in
the example in Table – 4A. The latter value represents perfect negative
correlation in Table – 4B. The relationship between the covariance and the
correlation coefficient can be represented as follows:
CXY = RXY SX SY (1)
CXY
or RXY = (2)
SX SY
where :
CXY = covariance between return on X and return on Y.
rXY = coefficient of correlation between return on X and return on Y.
SX = standard deviation of return on X.
SY = standard deviation of return on Y.

For two securities, X and Y, the relationship between the risk of a

portfolio of two securities and the relevant variables, the formula is:
VP = W2XVX + 2WXWYCXY + W2YVY (3)
where :
VP = the variance of return for the portfolio.
VX = the variance of return for the security X.
VY = the variance of return for the security Y.

226
 CXY = the covariance between the return on security X and the return
On security Y.
WX = the proportion of the portfolio’s value invested in security X.
WY = the proportion of the portfolio’s value invested in security Y.
For the case shown in Table-3
WX = 0.6; WY = .4
VX = 175.0 VY = 95.0 CXY = 120.00
Inserting these values in formula (3), we get the variance of the portfolio as a
whole:
VP = (0.6)2 x 175.0 + 2 x .6 x .4 x 120 + (0.4) 2 x 95.0
= 63.00 + 57.60 + 15.20
= 135.80

The relationship that gives the variance for a portfolio with more than
two securities is similar in nature but more extensive. Both the risks of the
securities and all their correlations have to be taken into account. The formula
is:
N N
VP =   WX WY CXY (4)
x=1 y=1

N N
=   WX WY rXY X Y
x=1 y=1
where
:
VP = the variance of return for the portfolio.
WX = the proportion of the portfolio’s value invested in security X. WY
= the proportion of the portfolio’s value invested in security Y. CXY =
the covariance between the return on security X and the return
On security Y.
N = the number of securities.
227
 The two summation signs mean that every possible combination must be
included in the total, with a value between 1 and N substituted where x appears
and a value between 1 and N substituted where y appears. In those cases in
which the values are the same, the relevant covariance is that between a
security’s return and itself.

Perfectly Positively Correlated Returns

The returns from two securities are perfectly positively correlated when a
cross-plot gives points lying precisely on a upward-sloping straight line, as
shown in Figure – 1A. Each point indicates the return on security A (horizontal
axis) and the return on security B (vertical axis) corresponding to one event. The
example shown in Table – 4A confirms to this pattern.

What is the effect on risk when two securities of this type are combined?
The general formula is:
VP = W2XVX + 2WXWYCXY + W2YVY
The covariance term can, of course, be replaced, using formula (1):
CXY = RXY SX SY

However, in this case there is perfect positive correlation, so r XY = +1 and

CXY = SX SY. As always, VX = S2X , VY = S2Y and VP = S2P
Substituting all these values in general formula gives:
S2P = W2X S2X + 2W X W Y S X S Y + W2Y S2Y S2P
= (WX SX + WY SY )2
S2P = WX SX + W Y S Y when rXY = +1 (5)

This is an important result. When two securities returns are perfectly

positively correlated, the risk of a combination, measured by the standard
228
deviation of return, is just a weighted average of the risks of the component
securities, using market value as weights. The principle holds as well if more
than two securities are included in a portfolio. In such cases, diversification does
not provide risk reduction but only risk averaging.

Perfectly Negatively Correlated Returns

Diversification can eliminate risk in case of perfectly negatively

correlated returns. Since rXY = -1, the general formula becomes:
S2P = W2X S2X - 2WX W Y S X S Y + W2Y S2Y
This can be factored to obtain:
S2P = (WX SX - W Y S Y )2 when rXY = -1 (6)

Assuming a portfolio, in which the proportionate holdings are inversely

related to the relative risks of the two securities, i.e.:
WX SY S Y WY
= or WX =
WY SX SX

For this combination the parenthesized term in formula (6) will be:
S Y WY
WX SX - WY SY = SX - WY SY = 0
SX
If this term is zero, of course, the portfolio’s standard deviation of return
must be zero as well. When two securities returns are perfectly negatively
correlated, it is possible to combine them in a manner that will eliminate all risk.
Figure – 1b shows the returns from two securities perfectly negatively
correlated, a cross-plot gives points lying precisely on a downward-sloping
straight line. The example shown in Table – 4b confirms to this pattern. This
principle motivates all hedging strategies. This object is to take position that

229
will offset each other with regard to certain kinds of risk, reducing or completely
eliminating such sources of uncertainty.

Uncorrelated Returns

Some risks can be substantially reduced by pooling. This has crucial

implications for investment management. Most importantly, it provides the basis
for understanding the relationship between risk and return. A special case of
extreme importance arises when a cross-plot of security returns shows no pattern
that can be represented even approximately by an upward-sloping or downward-
sloping line. (See Figure – 1c). In such an instance, the returns are uncorrelated.
The correlation coefficient, , is zero, as is the covariance. In this situation, the
general formula becomes:
S2P = W2X S2X + W2Y S2Y when rXY = 0 (7)

To illustrate the diversification effect, consider a portfolio divided

equally between two securities of equal risk, say 20.0%. That is:
WX = .5; WY = .5; S X = 20; SY = 20

Substitution these values in equation (7) we get:

(.5)2 (20)2 + (.5)2 (20)2 = (.25) (400) + (.25) (400)

Thus:

S2P = 200 and SP = 14.14

Diversification has helped as the risk of the portfolio is less that the risk
of either of its component securities. The result will remain same irrespective of
the number of securities. However, when all returns are uncorrelated the
complete formula becomes:

230
 S2P = W21 S21 + W22 S2 +2 ………. + W2N S2N
where:
SP …… = The standard deviation of the return on portfolio.
W1, W2..= The proportions invested in securities 1,2, etc.
S1, S2 .. = The standard deviation of the returns for securities 1,2,etc.
N = The number of securities included.

This is an extremely important relationship for investment analysis and

also provides the bases for insurance, or risk pooling. This can be seen by
extending the previous example and assuming a portfolio of equal parts of a
number of securities, each with a risk (standard deviation of return) of 20%. If
two securities are included:
S2P = (1/2)2 202 + (1/2)2 202
= 2(1/2)2 202

If three securities are included:

S2P = (1/3)2 202 + (1/3)2 202 + (1/3)2 202 = 3(1/3)2 202

To generalize, represent the number of securities by N. Then:

S2P = (1/N)2 202 + (1/N)2 202 + ………..
= N(1/N)2 202

Simplifying:
S2P = N/N2 202 = 202 /N
SP = 20/N

Diversification provides substantial risk reduction if the

components of a portfolio are uncorrelated. In fact, if enough securities are

231
included, the overall risk of the portfolio will be almost (but not quite) zero. This
is why insurance companies attempt to write many individual policies and
spread their coverage so as to minimize overall risk.
Figure 1

Combining Risky and Risk less Securities

What happens to risk when a risk less security is combined with a risky
security (or portfolio). If security A return is certain, while that of security B is
uncertain, SA = 0, as does CAB; and the relationship becomes :
SP = W2A 0 + 2WA WB 0 + W2B S2B
Thus: SP = WB SB when SA = 0
In other words, when a risky security or portfolio is combined with a risk
less one, the risk of the combination is proportional to the amount in vested in
the risky component. An obvious case of this sort arises when an investor splits
his funds between an equity portfolio and a savings account. Table – 5 shows
some representative values, case C and D involve splitting funds between the
risky alternative B and the risk less one A. Investing in a risk less security is
equivalent to lending money.
TABLE 5
Combining A Risk less And A Risky Investment

Security Security
A B
(Savings Combinati Combin Combin
(Equity
on C ation D ation E
Portfolio
Account) )
Proportion in A(WA) 1.0 0 .7 .3 -.2
Proportion in B(WB) 0 1.0 .3 .7 1.2
Expected return 8% 23% 12% 18% 26%
Standard deviation of 0% 25% 6% 14% 30.0%
return
232
 Along with the original alternatives A and B, Figure –2 portrays the
combinations C and D. Each alternative shows the expected return and risk of an
alternative combination. Since both risk and return will be proportion al to the
investment proportions in C case of this sort, both point C and point D lie on the
straight line connecting points A and B. All these alternatives have positive
individual proportions except E. As shown in Table – 5 and Figure – 2,
combination E and point E have WA equal - .20 and WB equal + 1.20.

What does this mean? Imagine an investor with Rs.10,000 to invest.

But in order to take advantage of profitable opportunity, he may take additional
risk and invest his own Rs.10,000 and borrow Rs.2000 at 8% interest. A total of
Rs.12,000 could then be invested in the project. The effect of this sort of
leverage may be favourable/unfavourable depending upon the circumstances.
Table 6(a) shows the return on investor’s capital may go up to 26%. The final
column of the table showed a similar set of computations for combination.

Leverage increase the expected return on investor’s capital if borrowed

funds are invested in a risky alternative. Point E lies above point B in Figure 2.
However, the expected return may decline with an unfavorable outcome. Return
on investor’s capital falls to 4.4 per cent from 26 per cent. The effect of
leverage on risk is shown in the fourth line of the table. Borrowing increases
risk. This is also shown in Figure 2 point E is to the right of point B.

233
 Expected Return B Plus
Borrowing
B Plus
Lending

Risk (Standard Deviation of Return)

Figure 2 : Risk and Return for Combination of a Risky and a Riskless
Investment

TABLE 6
Effect of Leverage
A. With a Favourable Outcome:
Investment return 23%
Return on total
.23 x 12,000 = 2,760
investment
Interest rate on loan 8%
Amount of interest .08 x Rs.2000 = 160
Net Proceeds = 2,600
Return on
investor’s

2,600
capital =
= 26%

10,000

234
 B. With an Unfavorable Outcome:
Investment return 5%
Return on total
investment .05 x Rs.12,000 = Rs.600
Interest rate on loan 8%
Amount of interest .08 x Rs.2000 = 160
Net Proceeds = 440
Return on
investor’s

Rs.440
capital =
= 4.40%

10,000

Leverage generally increases both risk and expected return. It is

commonly used by corporations. For example, point B in Figure 2 might
represent the risk and return obtained by a firm on its total assets. If, however,
the corporation has issued debt, both the risk and return of its investment should
be greater than this. Combination E conforms to the example shown in Table 5
and Figure 2.

Like corporations, the individual investors can and do borrow from a

number of sources. At any time the interest charged may depend on the
borrower, the lender, the collateral, the purpose of loan, the length of time
involved, the amount of money borrowed, etc. If there is chance that the loan
will not be repaid in full and on time, the rate charged will, of course, be higher,
and the loan will be risk less. But in these cases in which the leverage is used
within the limits required to keep the loan risk less, the relationship will be
shown in Figure 2. Margined or leveraged purchase of any risky investment
(e.g., B) can be used to obtain a combination of risk and return plotting on the
235
straight line connecting the points represent the two components (e.g., A and B).
The prospect obtained in this manner will depend on the amount of leverage: the
greater the leverage, the farther to the right of the risky investments point will be
the point representing the new combination.

Review Questions
1. How is a portfolio managed? How is it revised?
2. What is an efficient frontier? How does it establish an optimum portfolio?
3. How can an individual make an analysis of different curves to get the most
beneficial portfolio?
4. How can we arrive at the optimum portfolio?
5. What is meant by levered portfolio/ how is it constructed?
6. How would you calculate the systematic, unsystematic risk of a security and
the portfolio risk?

236
 MARKOWITZ THEORY

Traditional theory was based on the fact that risk could be measured on
each individual security through the process of finding out the standard
deviation and that security should be chosen where the deviation was the lowest.
Greater variability and higher deviations showed more risk than those securities
which had lower variation. The modern theory is of the view that by
diversification, risk can be reduced. Diversification can be made by the investor
either by having a large number of shares of companies in different regions, in
different industries or those producing different types of product lines.
Diversification is important but the modern theory states that there cannot be
only diversification to achieve the maximum return. The securities have to be
evaluated and thus diversified to some limited extent within which the
maximum achievement can be sought by the investor. The theory of
diversification was based on the research work of Harry Markowitz. He is of
the view that a portfolio should be analyzed depending upon (a) the attitude of
the investor towards risk and return, and (b) the quantification of risk.

Thus, traditional theory and modern theory are both framed under the
constraints of risk and return, the former analyzing individual securities and the
latter believing in the perspective of combination of securities.

Modern portfolio theory, as brought out by Markowitz and Sharpe, is the

combination of the securities to get the most efficient portfolio. Combination of
securities can be made in many ways. Markowitz developed the theory of
diversification through scientific reasoning and method.

Dr. Harry M. Markowitz used mathematical programming and statistical

analysis in order to arrange for the optimum allocation of assets within portfolio.

237
He considered the variance in the expected returns from investments and their
relationship to each other in constructing portfolios. Markowitz’s model is a
theoretical framework for the analysis of risk return choices. Decisions are based
on the concept of efficient portfolios. According to this theory, the effects of one
security purchase over the effects of the other security purchase are taken into
consideration and then the results are evaluated.

Assumptions

Markowitz theory is based on the modern portfolio theory under several

assumptions. The assumptions are:
(a) The market is efficient and all investors have in their knowledge
all the facts about the stock market and so an investor can
continuously make superior returns.
(b) All investors before making any investments have a common
goal. This is the avoidance of risk because they are risk averse.
(c) All investors would like to earn the maximum rate of return that
they can achieve from their investments.
(d) The investors base their decisions on the expected rate of return
of an investment.
(e) Markowitz brought out the theory that it was a useful insight to
find out how the security returns are correlated to each other. By
combining the assets in such a way that they give the lowest risk,
maximum returns could be brought out by the investor.
(f) From the above, it is clear that every investor assumes that while
making an investment, he will combine his investments in such a
way that he gets a maximum return and is surrounded by
minimum risk.

238
 (g) The investor assumes that greater or larger the return that he
achieves on his investments, the higher the risk factor that
surrounds him. On the contrary, when risks are low, the return can
also be expected to be low.
(h) The investor can reduce his risk if he adds investments to his
portfolio.

Effect of Combining Two Securities

It is believed that holding two securities is less risky than having only
one investment in a person’s portfolio. When two stocks are taken on a portfolio
and if they have negative correlation, then risk can be completely reduced,
because the gain on one can offset the loss on the other. The effect of two
securities can also be studied when one security is more risky when compared to
the other security. The following example shows a return of 13%. A combination
of A and E will produce superior results to an investor rather than if he was to
purchase only Stock-A. If an investor constructs his portfolio in such a way that
two-thirds of his stock consists of Stock-A and one-third of stock consists of
Stock-B, the average return of the portfolio is the weighted average return of
each security in the portfolio.

Example 1

Simple situation

When there are two securities in a portfolio:

Security Expected Return Proportion
R1% X1%
1 10 25
2 20 75

239
The return on the portfolio on combining the two securities will be
RP = R1 X 1 + R2 X 2
RP = 0.10 (0.25) + 0.20 (0.75)
= 17.5%

Example 2

portfolio analysis

Markowitz Two Security Analysis:

Stock - A Stock – B
Return % 7 or 11 13 or 5
Probability average .4 each return .4 each return
Expected Return % 7.2 + 7.20
Variance 4 16
Standard Deviation 2 4
+ Expected Return = .4 x 7 +.4 x 11 = 7.2
Expected = .4 x 13 + .4 x 5 = 7.2
Rate of Return on Portfolio = 9
Formula:
N
RP =  X 1 R1
i=1

RP = the expected return to portfolio

X1 = proportion of total portfolio invested in security I
R1 = expected return to security I
N = total number of securities in
portfolio Therefore, RP = (2/3) (7.2) + (1/3) (7.2) =
7.2
The range of fluctuations in a portfolio will be calculated in the
following manner, in the following situation:
240
 (a) When Stock ‘A’ in a given investment is taken at 2/3 proportion
during prosperity RP = (2/3) x (7) + (1/3) x (5) = 9.0.
(b) When Stock ‘A’ in a given investment is taken at 2/3 proportion
during depression RP = (2/3) x (7) + (1/3) x (13) = 9.0.
(Higher return than expected)

Thus, by putting some part of the amount in stock which is riskier stock,
i.e. ‘B’, the risk can be reduced rather than if the investor was to purchase only
Stock ‘A’. If an investor was to purchase only Stock ‘A’, his return would be
according to his expectation an average of 7.2%, which becomes as low a 7% in
depression periods and rises to 11% in boom periods. The standard deviation of
this stock is as low 2%. The investor will make a return of higher than 7.2% by
combining two-thirds of Stock ‘A’ and one-third of Stock ‘B’. Thus, the investor
is able to achieve a return of 9% and bring the risk to the minimum level. Thus,
the effect of holding two securities in a portfolio does reduce risk but research
studies have shown that it is important to know what proportion of the stock
should be brought by the investor in order to get a minimum risk, the portfolio
returns can be achieved at the higher point by setting of one variation against
another. The investor should be able to find out two investments in such a way
that one investment is giving a higher return whereas the other investment is not
performing well even though one of the securities in more risky, and it will lead
to a good combination. This is a difficult task because the investor will have to
continue to find out two securities which are related to each other inversely like
the example given for Stocks ‘A’ and ‘B’. But securities should also be
correlated to each other in such a way that maximum returns can be achieved.

Interactive Risk through Covariance

Apart from the measurement of securities through standard deviation and

co-efficient of variation when two securities are combined, the investor should
241
find out the co-variance of each security. Co-variance of the securities will help
in finding out the inter-active risk. When the co-variance will be positive, then
the rates of return of securities move together either upwards or downwards.
Alternatively it can also be said that the interactive risk is positive. Secondly, co-
variance will be zero on two investments if the rates of return are independent.
Therefore, when two stocks are inversely related to each other, the co-variance
will become negative. The following formula is given calculating co-variance.

When probabilities are equal:

1N
Cov.XY = RX – RX RY - RY
N
Cov. XY = covariance between two securities x and y.
RX = return on security ‘x’
RY = return on security ‘y’
RX = expected return on security ‘x’
RY = expected return on security ‘y’
N = number of observations
Example 3

Taking the above example of security A and B :

Expected Return
Range of Return Deviations
of Portfolio
Stock ‘A’ 7 9.0 - .2
Stock ‘B’ 13 9.0 +4
Stock ‘A’ 11 9.0 +2
Stock ‘B’ 5 9.0 -4

Cov. = ½(7-9)(13-9) + (11-9) (5-9)

= ½(-8) + (-8) = -16/2 = -8
242
 In this example, the investment of stock A and B are taken at the same
point of time to determine the variation of each stock from its expected value
and the deviations are multiplied together. If each deviation is negative, their
products will become positive. the co-variance will be an average of the
positive values and the total values will be added. Alternatively, it can be said
that when values of one variable will be higher and the value of the other
variable will be small, then the resulting deviations will also show one positive
and other negative. The co-variance will now turn to be negative. This is
depicted in the above example.

Coefficient of Correlation

The coefficient of correlation is also designed to measure the relationship

between two securities. It gives an indication of the variables being positively or
negatively related to each other. This is represented by the following formula:

Example 4
Cov. XY
XY =
X Y
XY = coefficient of correlation of x and y.
Cov. XY = covariance between x and y.
X = standard deviation of x.
Y = standard deviation of y.
In the above example, coefficient of correlation =
If X = 2 Y = 4
V XY = -8/[(2)(4)] = -1

The coefficient of correlation indicates, as discussed above, the

relationship between two securities and also determines the variation of security
x and security y which helps in finding out the kind of proportion which can be
243
combined and measured. It is measured by the standard deviation of two
securities, namely x and y. The coefficient of correlation between the two
securities is shown when it is + 1.0, which means that there is perfect positive
correlation and if it shows – 1.0, it means that there is perfect negative
correlation. If the coefficient correlation is zero, then it means that the return on
securities are independent of one another. When the correlation is zero, an
investor can expect deduction of risk by diversifying between two assets. When
correlation coefficient is -1, the portfolio risk will be the minimum.

Markowitz has shown the effect of diversification by reading the risk of

securities. According to him, the security with co-variance which is either
negative or low amongst them, is the best manner to reduce risk. Markowitz has
been able to show that securities which have less than positive correlation will
reduce risk without, in any way, bringing the return down. According to his
research study a low correlation level between securities in the portfolio will
show less risk. According to him, investing in a large number of securities is not
the right method of investment. It is the right kind of security which brings the
maximum results. The following formula has been given by Harry Markowitz
for a two security portfolio. The formula includes the standard deviation. It also
includes variance and co-variance:
P =  X 2i èi2 - X 2jè 2j + 2X X
i (rj è xèi )j

è2p = variance of the portfolio

Xi and Xj = weights of securities i and j
Vrx = co-efficient of correlation i and j
èi èj = standard deviation of times the security i and j

Example 5

The effect of the degree of risk on portfolio is illustrated in the following

manner:
244
 èp = X 2i èi2 - X 2j è 2j + 2X X
i rj è
x ièj

The risk of portfolio is measured in this example and when coefficient

correlation are -1, 1.5, -0.5, è, + 1 when x = 1, the risk is the lowest, risk would
be nil if the proportion of investment in security X i and Xj are changed so that
standard becomes 0 and x = -1.
When èi = 4
èj = 7
Xi = 0.5
Xj = 0.5
(1) When rx = -1
èp = (0.5)2(4)2 + (0.5)2 (7)2 + (2) (0.5) (0.5) (-1) (4) (7)
èp = 1.5
(2) When rx = -0.5
èp = (0.5)2(4)2 + (0.5)2 (7)2 + (2) (0.5) (0.5) (-0.5) (4) (7)
èp = 3.041381
(3) When rx = -0.0
Then
èp = (0.5)2(4)2 + (0.5)2 (7)2 + (2) (0.5) (0.5) (-1) (4) (7)
èp = 4.03
(4) When rx = +1.0
Then
èp = (0.5)2(4)2 + (0.5)2 (7)2 + (2) (0.5) (0.5) (1) (4) (7)
èp = 5.5

In this example, standard deviation is the lowest when correlation is

negative-1.The standard deviation increases when the degree of correlation is
positives. When co-efficient of correlation is +1, the advantage of diversifying
becomes nullified. At this point of time, the standard deviation of the portfolio
245
becomes equal to the weighted sum of standard deviations of each individual
security.

To illustrate, the weighted sum of the standard deviations:

èi èj = Xi (èi)2 + Xj (èj)2
= 0.5(4) + 0.5 (7)
= 5.5
(a) When correlation is less than + 1, risk can be reduced by diversification.
At this point, for a given return, risk will be reduced below the weighted
sum of the standard deviation of each security.
(b) When two securities are positively correlated (perfectly + 1 positive), its
standard deviation will be identical with the standard deviation of the
securities when calculated independently.
(c) To find out the ideal combination.
Xx = èy/èxy + èy
= 7/4+7
= .36
When Xi =.64
and Xi =.36
Now when rx = -1
= (.64)2(4)2 + (.36)2 (7)2 + 2(.64) (.36) (-1) (4) (7)
= .4096(16) + .1296(49) + (.2304) (-28)2
= 12.90 – 12.90
= 0
Example 6

(a) Calculate risk from the coefficient of correlation given below with
proportion of .50 and .50 for XY

246
(b) What would be the least risky combination if the correlation of the
returns of the two securities is
(i) – 1.0, (ii) 0, (iii) 0.8 (iv) 1.0
Security Nos. Expected Return. Expected.
1 5 2
2 15 8
5(.50) + 15(.50)
2.50 + 7.50 = 10.00 returns
When r = -1
èp = (0.5)2(2)2 + (0.5)2 (8)2 + (2) (0.5) (0.5) + 0(2) (8)
= (.25)(4) + (2.5)(64) x (2) (2.5)
= 1.0 + 16.0 + 0
= 17
èp = 3
When r = 0
èp = (0.5)2(2)2 + (0.5)2 (8)2 + (2) (0.5) (0.5) + (.8) (2) (8)
= (6.4)(4) + (0.4)(4) x (.32) - 16
= .17+ 6.4
= 23.4
èp = 4.2
When r = 0.8
èp = (0.5)2(2)(2)2 + (0.5) (8)2 + (2) (0.5) + (1.0) (2) (8)
= 17 + 8
= 25
= 4.7

247
When r = 1.0
èp = (0.8)2 (2)2 + (0.2)2 (8)2 + 2(.8) (.2) - 1(2) (8)
= 17 + 8
= 25
èp = 5
The least risky portfolio combination is when correlation is –1.
(b) 80% X
( c) 20% Y
èp = (0.8)2(2)2 + (.02)2 (8)2 + 2 (.8) (.2) - 1(2) (8)
= (64)(4) + (.04)(4) + .32 - 16
= 2.56 + 2.56 + 5.12
= 5.12 – 5.12
èp = 0
The least risky combination is when standard deviation is 0.
To find out proportion:
(a) Weight of Xx = èy / èx + èy
= 8/2 + 8
= 8/10
X = 80%
Y = 20%
Example 7

The data are as follows:

Year Stock Return

1 R 10
1 S 12
2 R 16
2 S 18

248
(a) What is Expected Return on a portfolio made up of 40% R and 60% S?
(b) What is the standard deviation of each stock? (c) What is the co-
variance? of R and S? (d) Determine coefficient of correlation of Stocks R
and S. (e) What is the portfolio risk made up of 40% R and 60% S?.
(a) To find out Expected Return:
10 + 16 12 + 18
40/100 + 60/10
2 2
= 14.2

(b) R (x - x) (x2) S (x – x) (x2)

10 –3 9 12 –3 9

16 +3 9 18 +3 9
26 18 30 18

26
x = = 13
2
x2 18
= = 9 = 3
 n 2

R=3
30
x = = 15
2

18
= = 9
2

=3
S=3

249
(c) Covariance
Return Expected Difference Product
Return
Stock R 10 14.2 -4.2 9.24

Stock S 12 14.2 -2.2

Stock R 16 14.2 +1.8 6.84

Stock S 18 14.2 +3.8

Co-variance = ½ (10) – 14.2 ) (12-14.2) + ½ (16 – 14.2) (18 – 14.2)

= ½ (-4.2)(-2.2)+ ½ (1.2)(3.2)
= ½ (9.24) + ½ (6.84)
= 4.62 +3.42
= + 8.04

(d) Correlation
rxy = +8.04/(3)(3)
= 8.04/9 = 8.93
(e) Correlation co-efficient is positive to a high degree. The risk in such a
portfolio is very high.

Markowitz’s programme shows the combination of securities where

standard deviation of the portfolio is the minimum. In this example, the
programme is developed for a combination of two securities, but the basic
purpose of this quadratic equation programme is to have a large number of
combinations of portfolios which give the lowest risk between the limits of zero
and infinity. To summaries the above, Markowitz’s theory of portfolio
diversification attaches importance to (a) standard deviation, i.e., when
portfolio=0, risk is minimum, (b) co-variance – to show interactive risk, (c)
250
coefficient of correlation, i.e., when x = - 1, the risk of investment should be the
lowest, also rx èx èy = co-variance, (d) the weights or proportion of each security
in the total portfolio to give the ideal combination. It can be found by the
formula.
Xx = èy èx + èy
Thus, when
Xx = 3/6 + 3
= 3/9 = .33
Yx = .67
Sometimes, the total portfolio is changed. In this case, the effect is also
on the change in the proportion of risk. The example given below will clarify
this concept.

Example 8
Stock-X Stock-Y Portfolio Standard Deviation
100 0 2.0
80 20 0.8
66 34 0.0
20 80 2.8
0 100 4.0

In this example, the ideal combination is 66% and 34% and = 0.

When two securities are combined and one is in 50% proportion and the
other in 50%, proportion and the co-efficient of correlation is positive, then the
risk of the two securities which is the weighted sum of the individual standard
deviations as shown below will be the same as the standard deviation of
securities when calculated independently. Also, the smaller the correlation, the
greater or better the results of diversifying two securities. Standard deviation of
securities but correlation co-efficient should be less than the ratio of the smaller
standard deviation compared by the larger standard deviation.

251
 In situation 1
èa
rxy < ---
èb
for example
2
- 1.00 < --
4
- 1.00 < + .50
In situation
2 rxy = + .80
2
+ .80 > --
4
+ .80 > + .50
There is no portfolio effect.

Risk Return in a Third Security

The portfolio effect of two securities is also applied to three securities to

find out the effect on the portfolio. It is done through the method of standard
deviation of returns, correlation coefficient and the proportion in which security
which is invested. The following is the formula. It is similar to the two security
formulae.
N
Rp =  Xi Ri
i =1
The standard deviation of the portfolio determines the deviation of the
returns and the correlation co-efficient of the proportion of securities that are
invested.
N N
è 2
p =   Xi Xj rij èièj i
=1 j =1

è2
2
è p = portfolio variance (expected) --- = portfolio standard deviation
 p
252
Xi = proportion of portfolio which is invested in security i
Xj = proportion of portfolio which is invested in security j
rij = co-efficient of correlation between i and j
i = standard deviation of i, N = Total number of securities
j = standard deviation of j

Example 9

(a) What is the expected Return to a Portfolio composed of the following

securities?
Security Expected Return % Proportion %
1 10 20
2 15 20
3 20 60

(b) What would be the expected return if the proportion of each security in
the portfolio were 25, 25, 50% respectively?
(a) R = R1 X1 + R2 X2 + R3 X3
= 10(.20) + 15(.20) = 20(.60)
= 2.00 + 3.00 + 12.00
= 17%
(b) R = R1 X1 + R2 X2 + R3 X3
= 10(.25) + 15(.25) = 20(.50)
= 2.50 + 3.75 + 10.00
= 16.25%

253
Example 10

Compute the risk on each portfolio from the following information.

Security Expected Return % Proportion %
1 10 20
2 15 20
3 20 60

Standard Deviation Co-efficient of Correlation

0 = 0.2 r 12 = 0.5
0 = 0.3 r 13 = 0.1
0 = 0.5 r 23 =-0.3
R = 17%
è2p = X21 Q21 + X22 è2 + 2X23 è2 + 2X3 1 X2 r12 è1 è2
= 2X2 X3 r2.3 è2 è3 + 2X1 X3 r1.3 è1 è3
è2p = (.20)2 (0.2)2 + (.20)2 (0.3)2 + (.60)2 (0.5)2 + 2(.2) (.2) (.6)
(.2) (.3) + 2(.2) (.6) (.3) (.5) + 2(.2) (.6) (.2) (.5) (-.3)
= .0016 + .0036 + .09 + .00108 + .0024
= .097840 - .001080
= .096760
= .309
Portfolio risk = +.31

Graph 1

(j) The example shows inverse relationship between T and Z. Risk is

reduced to zero; T has higher return than Z with equal risk.

254
 (ii) Securities at BOX provide better return than ACX when correlation
is 0.
(iii) A and B are positively correlated and one cannot be offset against
another to get minimum risk and maximum return.

Graph 2

(i) Shaded area = attainable portfolios.

(ii) Arc or budge abcd = efficient portfolios or efficient frontier.
(iii) All points on efficient frontier dominate other points to the right
of the frontier portfolio b dominates portfolio f. Portfolio c
dominates portfolio e because the return is the same but risk is
greater at f and e for the same return.
(iv) Markowitz shows more than one portfolio on the efficient
frontier. Any one can be selected by the investor depending on
his preference for risk and return.
(v) According to Markowitz, there are a large number of portfolios
which could be called feasible or attainable. Out of these
portfolios only those were selected which were superior and
dominated others in terms of risk and return characteristics.
Through quadratic programming efficient set of portfolio can be
selected. In this sense lies the difference between Markowitz
efficient set and feasible or attainable set.

Markowitz theory is also applied in the case of more than three

securities. His programme is a conclusion of the least portfolio risk at a
particular level of return. According to the graphical representation of the
securities which stand on the efficient line, are called the portfolios on the
efficient frontier. Markowitz shows the efficient frontier by calculating the risk
255
and return of all individual assets and by plotting them by means of data on a
graph. Only portfolios which lie on the efficient frontier should be taken by an
individual because this will gives the effect of diversification and will help in
bringing down the risk on different assets. The efficient frontier will show a
bulge towards the vertical axis. This is depicted in Graph 1 and 2.

The reason for this is that the correlation coefficient lies between zero
and one. Only those assets which are perfectly positively correlated will
generate an efficient frontier which is represented by means of a straight line. It
is difficult to find negatively correlated assets. Therefore, the efficient frontier
will very rarely occur in a curve over the vertical over the vertical axis.

All portfolios will not lie on the efficient frontier which is represented by
a straight line. Some portfolios will dominate other portfolios. Selected through,
the Markowitz diversification pattern, it will be planned and scientifically
oriented. This will lie in a manner that they dominate port folios which are
simply diversified. Markowitz model is useful but difficult to use as it requires a
lot of information.

Conclusion

The Markowitz model showed the ideal combination of securities

through the efficient frontier. It was also called the Full Co-variance Model. The
problem faced by the model is the need of more information. Further Markowitz
model is very tedious because when the number of investments increase, then
the help of a computer is required because it is an arduous task to find out the
securities which lie on the efficient frontier.

256
Review Questions

1. How does Markowitz Theory help in planning an investor’s portfolio?

2. Define Markowitaz diversification. Explain the statistical method used
by to obtain the risk reducing benefit?
3. What are the strength and weaknesses of the Morkowitz approach?
4. Explain how the efficient frontier is determined using the Morkowitz
approach. Use a two-security approach.

257
 PORTFOLIO SELECTION

All investors prefer those securities which have a high return but at the
same time the risk attached to it is low. At the time of combining the securities
and constructing a portfolio of different combinations of securities, an investor
is faced with the same question of risk and return. There are three kinds of
investors. An investor who wishes to take more return and least risk, more return
with comparatively higher risk and high return with a high risk. These are
depicted as desirable conditions for an investor through the use of utility curves
called indifferent curves. Indifference curves are usually parallel and linear.
When it is drawn on a graph, it shows that the higher the investor goes on the
growth, the greater is his satisfaction. In Illustration 1, these utility graphs are
drawn. These are positively sloped for a hypothetical investor ‘X’ and the
indifference curves are from 1 to 6. The investor ‘X’ is faced with the problem of
finding out the indifference curves or portfolio tangent which will give him the
highest return. In Illustration 2, it shows that there is a combination of securities
on the indifferent curves and the efficient frontier at point ‘A’ is the best
portfolio in terms of efficiency and (b) that it represents a tangent to the
indifferent line.

The investors are happy when they get a high return even though they
have to take some additional risk with it. All indifferent curves which are given
higher satisfaction and higher return will show positively sloped lines.
Illustration 3 depicts (a) the positive sloping curves for a risk fearing investor
‘Y’. The higher the curve, the greater the satisfaction of investor ‘X’(positively
sloped), higher return for greater risk . (a) ‘A’ portfolio is efficient b) The
efficient frontier is tangent to the indifference curve (Line).

258
 The investor ‘Y’ has positive sloping curves from U.1 to U.6 and his
satisfaction shows that slopes are positive and the higher he goes, the greater the
satisfaction. Illustration 4 depicts the indifferent curves of a risk lover investor
‘K’. An investor of this type will have negative sloping curves with lines convex
to the origin. Curves from U.1 to U.4 show the investment preference of a risk
lover. Investor ‘Z’ in Illustration 5 is showing that he is less risk fearing and U.1
to U.5 show his indifferent curves and his investment preferences. An investor
who is a risk averter is happy when his èp is low in his portfolio but an investor
who enjoys taking a risk is happier when the èp is higher. The slope of the
growth, that is the degree with which the indifferent curves are associated, show
the kind of risk that an investor has in mind. Illustration 16.6 shows that there
are different curves of three different kinds of slopes. There are three graphs—
curve ‘A’ shows that the investor is a risk neutral and he has constant marginal
utility is increasing. Curve ‘B’ shows that the investor is a risk neutral and he
has constant marginal utility. Curve ‘C’ represents an average investor who
would not like to take much risk and at the same time be able to get a return for
his satisfaction. Most of the investors are categorized in Curve ‘C’.
Curve A = Increasing marginal utility – Risk Lover.
Curve B = Constant marginal utility – Risk Neutral.
Curve C = Decreasing marginal utility – Risk Averse.

Illustration 1
Illustration 2
Illustration 3
Illustration 4
Illustration 5
Illustration 6

259
Optimal Portfolio

Shape has identified the best portfolio ors the optimal portfolio through
his research study and has called it the single index model. According to him,
the ‘beta ratios’ is the most important in a person’s portfolio. The optimal
portfolio is said to relate directly to the beta. it is the excessive return to beta
ratio.
Ri – RF
i
Where Ri = expected return on stocks ‘i’,
RF = return received from risk-less.
Bj = rate of return in expected change on stock ‘i’ with 1 % change
market return rate. The cut-off rate consists of various subjects which have been
constructed. The following subjects help in finding out the cut-off rate:
(a) finding out stocks of different return risk ratios.
(b) Ranking securities from higher excess return to  to less
return to .
(c) Selecting to high rank securities above the cut-off rate.
(d) making a comparison of (Ri – RF) i with ‘C’ and investor in
all stocks in which (Ri – RF) i achieve the cut-off point ‘C’
(e) find cut-off rate ‘C’ A portfolio of ‘i’ stocks Ci is calculated
by:
(Rj – RF)i
èm j = 1
è2
èe2j
Ci =
2i
1 + è m j = 1
2
è ef

260
 (f) after finding out the securities difference included in optimal
portfolio, calculated according to the following formula:
Zi
N
Xi =  Zj
i =1
When
i Ri - R f
Zi = ‘C’
2
è ei i

The first equation gives the rate of each security on adding the total sum
should be equal to ‘1’ to ensure full investment. The second equation gives the
relative investment in each security.

The residual variance èei determines the amount to be invested in each

security. The desirability or satisfaction of an investor of any stock will always
be the excess return to beta ratio.

Cut-off Rate and New Securities

An investor may either add new securities or remove from his

investment some other security. In this case, the cut-off rate will changes and
this would lead to a change in the optimum portfolio. Cut-off rate determines not
only the value of the existing securities but also helps in assessing the new
securities with the change in beta. An example may be given to illustrate this. If
cut-off rate was equal to a given amount at the existing moment, with the change
in the securities, the return to risk ratio may be more or less other than the
previous cut-off rate. This may or may not enter in the optimum portfolio to
determine whether it enters the portfolio again the same process or ranking the

261
securities and finding out the excess to beta ratios above the cut-off rate would
haves to be chosen to find out the optimum portfolio.

New security whenever it is introduced in a portfolio will have its

importance. It will have the effect on either adding to the result to the result of
the existing portfolio or making a change form it. The results will show whether
with the addition of the new security, the optimum portfolio will also affect the
change in those securities which were quite close to the existing cut-off rate.

Efficient Frontier and Portfolio Selection

The portfolio is selected by the introduction of a borrowing and lending

line making the efficient frontier a straight line. Illustration 7 shows a risk-free
security of 6% with a standard deviation of 6.90. The graph represents a
portfolio return and risk and the best portfolio is the corner portfolio of ‘9’. The
corner which is beyond ‘9’ and to its left, i.e. from 10 to 17 can be introduced to
a greater efficiency and made efficient by selecting ‘9’with an addition of the
fact of leading. The choice of portfolio which are on the right side of ‘9’i.e.from
1 to 8 are seen to show borrowing and are in some way dominated by ‘9’.’9’is
the stage in which the maximum benefit can be derived after using the formula
(Rp – Rt /bp).
Illustration 7

Sharpe finds the beta relationship to be the most significant in the

portfolios. According to him, a portfolio has unsystematic risk as well as
systematic risk but although unsystematic risk can be reduced to zero the
systematic portion of the risk is determined by the behaviour of stocks in the
market and can in no way be absolutely reduced or dominated to zero. Sharpe
also gives importance to the presence of both beta coefficient () and systematic
262
risk. In the selection of a portfolio, both negative and positive betas should be
considered. While assessing a portfolio on beta, the negative beta should be
preferred to positive beta. The presence of negative beta in a portfolio if
efficient. Also, there is reduced or eliminated amount of risk when the negative
betas are present.

Portfolio betas are used to measure risk in a portfolio but with proper
diversification and elimination of unsystematic risk, the portfolio can become
efficient. Betas on a portfolio are, therefore, the weighted average of the betas of
each of the securities on the portfolio. Beta can be used to move systematic risk
above or below and since beta is measure by the market movements, therefore,
betas then the investor can be expected to be aggressive as this indicates an
aggressive portfolio. When the market price rises and moves up the corner,
portfolio ‘9’ also shows a rise. But the value of the portfolio falls whenever the
market prices fall.

Beta and its Significance in the Portfolio

Beta is a measure which has been used for reducing risk or determining
the risk and return for stocks and portfolios. A number of research studies have
been made to give indications of beta coefficient for selection of stock. When
beta is used significantly for stock selection it is to be compared with the
market. The investor can construct his portfolio by drawing the relationship of
beta coefficient with the prices prevailing in the market. When there is buoyancy
in the market, then beta coefficient which are large can be selected. These betas
would also carry with them a high risk but during the boom period, high risk is
expected. These betas would also carry with them a high risk but during the
boom period, high risk is expected to give a maximum of return. If the market is
bear market and the prices are falling, then it is possible to sell “short” stocks

263
which have high positive beta coefficient. The stocks which have a negative beta
would withstand the tag in the prices in the market. For example, when the beta
is + 1.0, the volatility which is relative to the market would indicate an average
stock. But when the beta changes to +2.0, it is excluding the value which is
provided by alpha, the stock would be estimated to show a return of 20% when
the market return is forecasted at 10%. This is in the case of a rising market. But
when the prices show a decline and the future is expected to provide a decline of
10%, then a beta which shows + 2.0 would show that it is providing a negative
return of 20% if the stock is held by the investor for very long. But if the
investor sells ‘short’ stock, then he can plan to gain 20%. But if the beta is
negatives 1.0, then there would be a gain of a positives 10%, i.e., (-1.0 x .10 )

Although betas help in selecting stock, care should be taken to select the
stock with the beta approach because selection of portfolio with beta is followed
only when the following assumptions are considered:
(a) The market movement in positives and negatives directions haves to be
carefully analyzed and
(b) The past historical considerations of beta must be analyzed for future
prediction of beta.

If portfolios selection is not made by and accurate reading of the

movement of markets, then the portfolios selection will be incorrect and will not
determine the preferences of the investor. The market movements explain
between 15 and 65% of the movement of the individual securities. The
variability of returns is explained further between 75 and 95% in the
measurement of betas. The technique of beta, therefore, although it is useful, has
to be conducted with precision.

264
 Beta has been found useful by Smith Barney research work and by a
study conducted by Barr Rosenberg and also another study by Levy. All the
three research studies have shown that beta can be used for prediction but it has
to be analyzed very carefully. Levy’s research study showed that beta was not
good when securities were to be selected individually. They were partially
useful in the selection of small portfolios but portfolio selection through beta
was very useful in the case of large portfolios which were kept by the investor
for a greater length of time. Smith Barney found that beta gives an indication for
selection of stock but it must be predicted with care. They made a study of fifty-
six stocks and found out the difference of movement of stocks during two-time
periods. This proved that when portfolios of long-time and stable securities wee
analyzed, then beta was found useful. Betas have also been found to change and
the change is related to certain factors. One of the most important factors which
have found to change or move betas are the economic factors in a country. The
information has been found to be one of the factors which have caused changes
in the beta. to find a result by predicting beta is found to be useful when beta is
quantified and the changes of the returns of individual securities and the market
have been related to the expected rate of inflation. It can be safely said that the
relationship between market and security returns are an indicator for finding out
the beta changes because return, as already studied, is related to risk and both
these factors are linked with the market behaviour of stock. The relationship
between the returns of security and changes in the economic activity of the
country are related by finding out ‘fundamental betas’.

The fundamental betas were found out by Barr Rosenberg’s research

study. According to him, the fundamental betas could be predicted by finding
out “relative response coefficient.” The relative response coefficient quantify
between market return and security return.

265
 (a) the sensitivity of the security to inflation;
(b) economics events as Market Index causes systematic change and
(c) Risk and return with portfolio.

The relative response coefficient depends on the events that are

happening in the economy and a reaction in favour of inflation shows high
relative response coefficient. Also, betas in order to be useful have to be
predictive and cannot be upward looking. A well diversified portfolio is linked
with securities with the market movement. But he market movement can be
considered only when a survey of fundamental factors is taken into
consideration. The fundamental factors are the following:

(a) the earning of a firm;

(b) the movements of the market;
(c) continuous valuation of stock;
(d) survey of stock, whether it represents large or small firms, old and
established and new firms;
(e) growth of firms historically and
(f) The capital structure of the firm.

These factors are to be projected with the movements of the stock by

assigning probabilities for the occurrence of the particular factors. There
fundamental factors would also represent the changes in the returns of securities
over the years, the variability in their structure of earnings and the kind of
success that is made by each stock. When the stock is valued, a firm which has
continuous high market valuation will be considered as a good stock. The small
firm is risky or safe and the financial structure will be a means of finding out the
kind of operations of a firm relating to its liquidity position and the coverage of
fixed charges. Rosenberg found that these fundamental factors help in making

266
and optimum portfolio. According to him, risks are not only systematic and
unsystematic but the latter one can be also sub-divided as “specific risk and
extra market co-variance “Specific risk which is a unique risk, is independent to
particular firm. It comprises the risk and uncertainty of only one particular firm
in isolation. The extra market co-variance is independent of the market and it
shows a tendency of the stock to move together. It also shows the co-variance of
a homogenous group of the finance group. It is in-between the systematic and
specific risk. The specific risk covers about 50% of the total risk and the co-
variance and systematic risk together comprise the other half of 50%. While
systematic risk covers all the firms, the extra market co-variance is in-between
and covers one group classification of industries. A portfolio which is properly
selected and is well diversified usually consists of 80-90% of the systematic risk
out of the total risk involved in those securities.

Review Questions
1. Discuss the significance of beta in the portfolio.
2. What is an efficient frontier? How does it establish an optimum portfolio?
3. Why are indifference curves of typical investors assumed to slope upward to
the right?
4. Explain why an indifference curves cannot intersect.
5. What is beta? Is it a better measure of risk than the standard deviation?

267
References:

Avadhani V.A., ‘Investment and Securities Markets in India’, Himalaya

Publishing House, Mumbai, 2000
-------------, ‘Security Analysis and Portfolio Management’, International Book
House, New Delhi.
Bhalla V.K., ‘Investment Management – Security Analysis and Portfolio
Management’, S. Chand & Co. Ltd., New Delhi, 2007
Prasanna Chandra, ‘Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management’, Tata
McGraw-Hill Co.Ltd., New Delhi, 2002
Preeti Singh, ‘Investment Management - Security Analysis and Portfolio
Management’, Himalaya Publishing House, Mumbai, 2005
Punithavathi Pandian, ‘Security Analysis and Portfolio Management’, Vikas
Publications, New Delhi

268
269
 UNIT – V

PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

Objectives of the study:

The objectives of this unit are to help one understand, in general

 The Capital Market Theory

 The general frame work of Portfolio Theories in the Portfolio
Management.
 Importance and working of Sharp Index, Treynor Index, Jensen’s
Model etc.

Syllabus

Capital Market Theories-CAPM-Management of Portfolios and Portfolio

performance- Shape’s Index-Treynor’s Index-Jensen’s Model

CONTENTS DESIGN:
Introduction.
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Portfolio Management in India
Evaluation of Portfolio management
Investment Components
Self Evaluation Questions
References.

270
INTRODUCTION

Small investors feel insecure in managing their own investment in

securities at times, because they consider themselves inadequate to perform this
delicate task successfully. Thus, they seek the help of professional portfolio
managers to take up this job on behalf of them. Most often, the portfolio
manager chosen takes the form of a mutual fund or investment company, the
main reasons being: the diversification and liquidity. Managers trained in the
techniques of security analysis devote their full time meeting the Funds
investment objectives and also constantly monitor the securities in the portfolio

EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS - EMH

An investment theory states that it is impossible to "beat the market"

because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always
incorporate and reflect all relevant information. According to the EMH, this
means that stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, and thus it
is impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks
for inflated prices. Thus, the crux of the EMH is that it should be impossible to
outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing,
and that the only way an investor can possibly obtain higher returns is by
purchasing riskier investments. Although it is a cornerstone of modern financial
theory, the EMH is highly controversial and often disputed. Believers argue it is
pointless to search for undervalued stocks or to try to predict trends in the
market through either fundamental or technical analysis.

While academics point to a large body of evidence in support of EMH,

an equal amount of dissension also exists. For example, investors such as
Warren Buffet have consistently beaten the market over long periods of time,

271
which by definition is an impossibility according to the EMH. Detractors of the
EMH also point to events such as the 1987 stock market crash (when the DJIA
fell by over 20% in a single day) as evidence that stock prices can seriously
deviate from their fair values.

In an efficient market, all data are fully and immediately reflected in a

stock price. Price changes in an efficient market are equally likely to be positive
or negative. The hypothesis applies most directly to large companies trading on
the major securities exchanges. The forms of the efficient stock market are
weak, semi-strong, and strong.

In the weak form, no relationship exists between prior and future stock
prices. The informational value of historical data is already included in current
prices. Hence, studying previous stock prices is of no value.

In the semi-strong version, stock prices adjust immediately to new data;

thus action after a known event results in randomness. All public information is
reflected in a stock's value. Therefore, fundamental analysis is not usable in
determining whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued.

In the strong form, stock prices reflect all information-public and private
(insider). A perfect market exists. No group has access to information that would
enable it to earn superior risk-adjusted returns.

Assumptions

Beyond the normal utility maximizing agents, the efficient market

hypothesis requires the agents have rational expectations; that on average the
population is correct (even if no one person is) and whenever new relevant
information appears, the agents update their expectations appropriately.

272
 Note that it is not required that the agents are rational (which is different
from rational expectations; rational agents act coldly and achieve what they set
out to do). EMH allows that when faced with new information, some investors
may overreact and some may under react. All that is required by the EMH is that
investors' reactions be random enough that the net effect on market prices cannot
be reliably exploited to make an abnormal profit. Thus, anyone person can be
wrong about the market--indeed, everyone can be--but the market as a whole is
always right.

There are three common forms in which the efficient market hypothesis
is commonly stated — weak form efficiency, semi-strong form efficiency and
strong form efficiency, each of which have different implications for how
markets work.

Weak-Form Efficiency

 No excess returns can be earned by using investment strategies based on

historical share prices or other financial data.
 Weak-form efficiency implies that Technical analysis techniques will not
be able to consistently produce excess returns, though some forms of
fundamental analysis may still provide excess returns.
 In a weak-form efficient market current share prices are the best,
unbiased, estimate of the value of the security. Theoretical in nature,
weak form efficiency advocates assert that fundamental analysis can be
used to identify stocks that are undervalued and overvalued. Therefore,
keen investors looking for profitable companies can earn profits by
researching financial statements.

273
Semi-Strong Form Efficiency

 Share prices adjust within an arbitrarily small but finite amount of time
and in an unbiased fashion to publicly available new information, so that
no excess returns can be earned by trading on that information.
 Semi-strong-form efficiency implies that Fundamental analysis
techniques will not be able to reliably produce excess returns.
 To test for semi-strong-form efficiency, the adjustments to previously
unknown news must be of a reasonable size and must be instantaneous.
To test for this, consistent upward or downward adjustments after the
initial change must be looked for. If there are any such adjustments it
would suggest that investors had interpreted the information in a biased
fashion and hence in an inefficient manner.

Strong-Form Efficiency

 Share prices reflect all information and no one can earn excess returns.
 If there are legal barriers to private information becoming public, as with
insider trading laws, strong-form efficiency is impossible, except in the
case where the laws are universally ignored.
 To test for strong form efficiency, a market needs to exist where
investors cannot consistently earn excess returns over a long period of
time. Even though many fund managers have consistently beaten the
market, this does not necessarily invalidate strong-form efficiency. We
need to find out how many managers in fact do beat the market, how
many match it, and how many under perform it. The results imply that
performance relative to the market is more or less normally distributed,
so that a certain percentage of managers can be expected to beat the
market. Given that there are tens of thousand of fund managers

274
 worldwide, then having a few dozen star performers is perfectly
consistent with statistical expectations.

Arguments Concerning The Validity Of The Hypothesis

Some observers dispute the notion that markets behave consistently with
the efficient market hypothesis, especially in its stronger forms. Some
economists, mathematicians and market practitioners cannot believe that man-
made markets are strong-form efficient when there are prima facie reasons for
inefficiency including the slow diffusion of information, the relatively great
power of some market participants (e.g. financial institutions), and the existence
of apparently sophisticated professional investors. The way that markets react to
news surprises is perhaps the most visible flaw in the efficient market
hypothesis. For example, news events such as surprise interest rate changes from
central banks are not instantaneously taken account of in stock prices, but rather
cause sustained movement of prices over periods from hours to months.

Another observed discrepancy between the theory and real markets is

that at market extremes what fundamentalists might consider irrational
behaviour is the norm: in the late stages of a bull market, the market is driven by
buyers who take little notice of underlying value. Towards the end of a crash,
markets go into free fall as participants extricate themselves from positions
regardless of the unusually good value that their positions represent. This is
indicated by the large differences in the valuation of stocks compared to
fundamentals (such as forward price to earnings ratios) in bull markets
compared to bear markets. A theorist might say that rational (and hence,
presumably, powerful) participants should always immediately take advantage
of the artificially high or artificially low prices caused by the irrational
participants by taking opposing positions, but this is observably not, in general,

275
enough to prevent bubbles and crashes developing. It may be inferred that many
rational participants are aware of the irrationality of the market at extremes and
are willing to allow irrational participants to drive the market as far as they will,
and only take advantage of the prices when they have more than merely
fundamental reasons that the market will return towards fair value. Behavioural
finance explains that when entering positions market participants are not driven
primarily by whether prices are cheap or expensive, but by whether they expect
them to rise or fall. To ignore this can be hazardous: Alan Greenspan warned of
"irrational exuberance" in the markets in 1996, but some traders who sold short
new economy stocks that seemed to be greatly overpriced around this time had
to accept serious losses as prices reached even more extraordinary levels. As
John Maynard Keynes succinctly commented, "Markets can remain irrational
longer than you can remain solvent."

CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM)

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is used in finance to determine a

theoretically appropriate rate of return of an asset, if that asset is to be added to
an already well-diversified portfolio, given that asset's non-diversifiable risk.
The CAPM formula takes into account the asset's sensitivity to non-diversifiable
risk (also known as systematic risk or market risk), referred to as beta (â) in the
financial industry, as well as the expected return of the market and the expected
return of a theoretical risk-free asset.

The model was introduced by Jack Treynor, William Sharpe, John

Lintner and Jan Mossin independently, building on the earlier work of Harry
Markowitz on diversification and modern portfolio theory.

276
Formula

The CAPM is a model for pricing an individual security or a portfolio. The

security market line (SML) and its relation to expected return and systematic
risk (beta) show how the market must price individual securities in relation to
their security risk class. It enables to calculate the reward-to-risk ratio for any
security in relation to the overall market’s. Therefore, when the expected rate of
return for any security is deflated by its beta coefficient, the reward-to-risk ratio
for any individual security in the market is equal to the market reward-to-risk
ratio, thus:

Individual security’s = Market’s securities (portfolio)

Reward-to-risk ratio Reward-to-risk ratio

The market reward-to-risk ratio is effectively the market risk premium and by
rearranging the above equation and solving for E(Ri), the Capital Asset Pricing
Model (CAPM) is obtained.

Where:

is the expected return on the capital asset

is the risk-free rate of interest

277
 (the beta coefficient) the sensitivity of the asset returns to

market returns, or also ,

is the expected return of the market

is sometimes known as the market premium or risk

premium (the difference between the expected market rate of return and the
risk-free rate of return).

Asset pricing

Once the expected return, E(Ri)-, is calculated using CAPM, the future
cash flows of the asset can be discounted to their present value using this rate
(E(Ri)-), to establish the correct price for the asset.

In theory, therefore, an asset is correctly priced when its observed price is

the same as its value calculated using the CAPM derived discount rate. If the
observed price is higher than the valuation, then the asset is overvalued

Asset-specific required return

The CAPM returns the asset-appropriate required return or discount rate

- i.e. the rate at which future cash flows produced by the asset should be
discounted given that asset's relative risk. Betas exceeding one signify more than
average "risk"; betas below one indicate lower than average. Thus a more risky
stock will have a higher beta and will be discounted at a higher rate; less
sensitive stocks will have lower betas and be discounted at a lower rate. The
CAPM is consistent with intuition - investors (should) require a higher return for
holding a more risky asset.
278
 Since beta reflects asset-specific sensitivity to non-diversifiable, i.e.
market risk, the market as a whole, by definition, has a beta of one. Stock
market indices are frequently used as local proxies for the market - and in that
case (by definition) have a beta of one. An investor in a large, diversified
portfolio (such as a mutual fund) therefore expects performance in line with the
market.

Risk and diversification

The risk of a portfolio comprises systematic risk and specific risk. Systematic
risk refers to the risk common to all securities - i.e. market risk. Specific risk is
the risk associated with individual assets. Specific risk can be diversified away
(specific risks "average out"); systematic risk (within one market) cannot.
Depending on the market, a portfolio of approximately 15 (or more) well
selected shares might be sufficiently diversified to leave the portfolio exposed to
systematic risk only.

A rational investor should take only non-diversifiable risks, which are

rewarded. Therefore, the return that compensates for risk taken must be linked to
its riskiness in a portfolio context - i.e. its contribution to overall portfolio risk -
as opposed to its "stand alone risk." In the CAPM context, portfolio risk is
represented by higher variance i.e. less predictability.

The efficient (Markowitz) frontier

The CAPM assumes that the risk-return profile of a portfolio can be

optimized - an optimal portfolio displays the lowest possible level of risk for its
level of return. Additionally, since each additional asset introduced into a
portfolio further diversifies the portfolio, the optimal portfolio must comprise
every asset, (assuming no trading costs) with each asset value-weighted to

279
achieve the above (assuming that any asset is infinitely divisible). All such
optimal portfolios, i.e., one for each level of return, comprise the efficient
(Markowitz) frontier.

Because the unsystematic risk is diversifiable, the total risk of a portfolio

can be viewed as beta...

The market portfolio

An investor might choose to invest a proportion of his or her wealth in a

portfolio of risky assets with the remainder in cash - earning interest at the risk
free rate Here, the ratio of risky assets to risk free asset determines overall
return - this relationship is clearly linear. It is thus possible to achieve a
particular return in one of two ways:

By investing all of one’s wealth in a risky portfolio,or by investing a

proportion in a risky portfolio and the remainder in cash (either borrowed or
invested).

280
For a given level of return, however, only one of these portfolios will be optimal
(in the sense of lowest risk). Since the risk free asset is, by definition,
uncorrelated with any other asset, option 2) will generally have the lower
variance and hence be the more efficient of the two.

This relationship also holds for portfolios along the efficient frontier: a
higher return portfolio plus cash is more efficient than a lower return portfolio
alone for that lower level of return. For a given risk free rate, there is only one
optimal portfolio which can be combined with cash to achieve the lowest level
of risk for any possible return. This is the market portfolio.

All investors have rational expectations.

There are no arbitrage opportunities.

Returns are distributed normally.

Fixed quantity of assets.

Perfect capital markets.

Separation of financial and production sectors.

Thus, production plans are fixed.

Risk-free rates exist with limitless borrowing capacity and universal

access.

No inflation and no change in the level of interest rate exists

The model assumes that asset returns are normally distributed random
variables. It is however frequently observed that returns in equity and other
markets are not normally distributed. As a result, large swings (3 to 6 standard

281
deviations from the mean) occur in the market more frequently than the normal
distribution assumption would expect.

The model assumes that the variance of returns is an adequate

measurement of risk. This might be justified under the assumption of normally
distributed returns, but for general return distributions other risk measures (like
coherent risk measures) will likely reflect the investors' preferences more
adequately.

The model does not appear to adequately explain the variation in stock
returns. Empirical studies show that low beta stocks may offer higher returns
than the model would predict.

The model assumes that given a certain expected return investors will
prefer lower risk (lower variance) to higher risk and conversely given a certain
level of risk will prefer higher returns to lower ones. It does not allow for
investors who will accept lower returns for higher risk. Casino gamblers clearly
pay for risk, and it is possible that some stock traders will pay for risk as well.

The model assumes that all investors have access to the same
information and agree about the risk and expected return of all assets.
(Homogeneous expectations assumption)

The model assumes that there are no taxes or transaction costs, although
this assumption may be relaxed with more complicated versions of the model.

The market portfolio consists of all assets in all markets, where each
asset is weighted by its market capitalization. This assumes no preference
between markets and assets for individual investors, and that investors choose

282
assets solely as a function of their risk-return profile. It also assumes that all
assets are infinitely divisible as to the amount which may be held or transacted.

The market portfolio should in theory include all types of assets that are
held by anyone as an investment (including works of art, real estate, human
capital...) In practice, such a market portfolio is unobservable and people usually
substitute a stock index as a proxy for the true market portfolio. Unfortunately, it
has been shown that this substitution is not innocuous and can lead to false
inferences as to the validity of the CAPM, and it has been said that due to the
inoperability of the true market portfolio, the CAPM might not be empirically
testable

Model: The CAP model (CAPM)1[1]

The CAP-model is a ceteris paribus model. It is only valid within a

special set of assumptions. They are:
 Investors are risk averse individuals who maximize the expected utility of
their end of period wealth. Implication: The model is a one period model.
 Investors have homogenous expectations (beliefs) about asset returns.
Implication: all investors perceive identical opportunity sets. This is,
everyone have the same information at the same time.
 Asset returns are distributed by the normal distribution.
 There exists a risk free asset and investors may borrow or lend unlimited
amounts of this asset at a constant rate: the risk free rate (kf).
 There is a definite number of assets and their quantities are fixed within the
one period world.

1[1]
This derivation draw on the derivation given in Copeland and Weston [1988, pages 194-
198].
283
 All assets are perfectly divisible and priced in a perfectly competitive
marked. Implication: e.g. human capital is non-existing (it is not divisible and
it can’t be owned as an asset).
 Asset markets are frictionless and information is costless and simultaneously
available to all investors. Implication: the borrowing rate equals the lending
rate.
 There are no market imperfections such as taxes, regulations, or restrictions
on short selling.

Step 1. The derivation of the CAP-model starts by assuming that all assets
are stochastic and follow a normal distribution. This distribution is described
completely by its two parameters: mean value () and variance (2). The mean
value is a measure of location among many such as median and mode. Likewise,
the variance value is a measure of dispersion among many such as range, semi
inter-quartile range, semi variance, mean absolute deviation.In the hypothetical
world of the CAPM theory all that the investor bothers about is the values of the
normal distribution. In the real world asset return are not normally distributed
and investors do find other measures of location and dispersion relevant.
However, the assumption may be seen as a reasonable approximation and it is
needed in order to simplify matters.
As a result the mean and the variance of an asset X is defined as:

N
µX  EX   pi Xi
(1)
 
i=1
N
 VARX   COV X,X   E X  E X  p  X 
2 2
ó
E[X] 2          

X i  i i
i=1 (2)
and the covariance and the correlation coefficient between two assets X and Y
are:

284
 N
COV X,Y   E Xi
 EXYi EY
piXiE[X]YiE[Y]
 
i=1

COV[X,Y] COV[X,Y]
rxy  VAR[X] VAR[Y] 
ó X  óY

where pi is the probability of a random event Xi,

and N is the total number of events.
Some mean and variance properties can be derived
Property 1: E[X + c] = E[X] + c
Property 2: E[cX] = cE[X]
Property 3: VAR[X + c] = VAR[X]
Property 4: VAR[cX] = c2VAR[X] where c is a constant.
Consider a portfolio of two risky assets,
X and Y with  % in asset X and (1- ) % in asset Y.

They are both normally distributed. The return on this portfolio (using property
1 and 2) is:
p = E[kp] = E[X + (1- )Y] =
E[X] + E[(1- )Y] = E[X] + (1- )E[Y] (3)
and the variance on this portfolio is:
2p = VAR[Rp] = E[(kp - E[kp])2] = E[({X + (1- )Y} - E[X + (1- )Y])2]
(using property 2)
= E[({X + (1- )Y} - {E[X] + (1- )E[Y]})2]
= E[({X - E[X]} + {(1- )Y - (1- )E[Y]})2]
= E[({X - E[X]} + (1- ){Y - E[Y]})2]
= E[2(X - E[X])2 + (1- )2(Y - E[Y])2 + 2(1- )(X - E[X])(Y - E[Y])] (using
property 2)
285
= 2E[(X - E[X])2]+ (1- )2 E[(Y - E[Y])2]+ 2(1- )E[(X - E[X])(Y - E[Y])]
(using property 4)
= 2VAR[X]+ (1- )2VAR[Y]+ 2(1- )COV[X,Y]
= 2VAR[X]+ (1- )2VAR[Y]+ 2(1- ) rxy xy (4)

Very important the equations (1) - (4) demonstrate the concept of

portfolio diversification. In general it is true that VAR[Rp] < VAR[X] + (1-
)VAR[Y] if -1 rxy < 1. In words, the variance of a portfolio is less than the
simple average of variances of the assets in the portfolio if the assets are not
perfectly correlated. This will not be demonstrated rigorously but set rxy = 0,
VAR[X] = VAR[Y], and  = 0,5 then {VAR[Rp] < VAR[X] + (1- )VAR[Y]}
becomes {0,5VAR[X] < VAR[X]}. Furthermore, if rxy = -1 then {VAR[kp] <
VAR[X] + (1- )VAR[Y]} becomes {0 = VAR[X] < VAR[X] } a perfect hedge
(the resulting portfolio is riskless) The diversification property implies that the
minimum variance opportunity set will be convex, and this is a necessary
condition for the existence of unique and efficient portfolio equilibrium. As will
be seen this property is used for the derivation of the CAP- model. The
minimum variance opportunity set is the locus of mean and variance
combinations offered by portfolios of risky assets that yield the minimum
variance for a given return. The locus is illustrated as the fat curve in figure I
below. The convexity property holds for two risky assets or more. The area on
and behind the locus (the oval) is sometimes refereed to as the portfolio
production possibility area. Each point in this region represent the return and
risk from some single asset available in the market, or some portfolio made on
those assets.

Step 2. The next assumption is that investors are risk averse and
maximize expected utility.
286
They perceive variance as a bad and mean as a good.
This is also illustrated in figure I where tree risk-averse indifference
curves are drawn. Now, the first conclusion is.

Proposition 1: An individual investor will maximize expected utility of his end

of period wealth where his subjective marginal rate of substitution between risk
and return represented by his indifference curves is equal to the objective
marginal rate of transformation offered by the minimum variance opportunity
set: MRSpp = MRTpp.

Figure I:
Optimal portfolio choice for a risk averse investor in a world with risky assets

The indifference curves of risk averse

p

Minimum variance opportunity set (Bold blue

A
*p Portfolio production possibility area (the oval area)

 p* p

Step 3. Assume now that there in addition to the many risky assets exist
a risk free asset and that investors may borrow or lend unlimited amounts of this
asset at a constant rate: the risk free rate (k f). Furthermore, capital markets are
assumed to be frictionless.

The effect on the shape of the portfolio production possibility area is

profound as illustrated in figure II below.

287
Figure II: Optimal portfolio choice for a risk averse investor in a world with many risky assets and one risk free asset

Medium risk aversion Low risk aversion

p

Minimum variance opportunity set:

M Capital market line (Straight bold line)
m
Portfolio production possibility area

Rf
High risk aversion
m p

The reason for this dramatic change is simple. With the existence of the
risk free asset the mean and the variance for a portfolio consisting of the risk
free asset and the portfolio M (see figure) will be:
p = E[km] + (1 - )kf (5)
 2 = 2VAR[k ]+ (1- )2VAR[k ]+ 2(1- )COV[k ,k ] using property 3
p m f mf

= 2VAR[km]+ (1- )20+ 2(1- )0 = 2VAR[km]

<=>
p = m (6)
This shows that the new minimum varians opportunity
set will be linear in the (,p)
space and consists of portfolios with some fraction  of portfolio M and (1 - )
of the risk free asset. In the following an equation for the linear minimum
variance opportunity set is developed. Taking the derivative of (5) and (6)
yields:
p/ = E[km] - kf
p/ = m

288
Therefore the slope of the line is:
p/ /p/ = (E[km] - kf)/m (7) and since the intercept with the mean axle
is
(,) = (0,kf) the equation for the minimum variance portfolio is
p = kf + [(E[km] - kf)/m] = Rf + (E[km] - kf)/ m (8)
This equation has come to be known as the capital market line (CML). It
is the fat line in figure II. This formula is referred to as the capital portfolio
pricing model (CPPM), because it prices efficient portfolios. The following
explains why.

Step 4. Assume that all investors have homogeneous beliefs about the
expected distribution of returns offered by all assets. Also, capital markets are
frictionless and information is costless and simultaneously available to all
investors. Furthermore, there are no market imperfections. Taken together this
implies that all investors calculate the same equation for the market capital line
and that the borrowing rate equals the lending rate.

Within broad degrees of risk aversion each investor will maximize their
utility by holding some combination of the risk free asset and the portfolio M.
This property is known as the two-fund separation principle. It is illustrated in
figure II by the tangency of the indifference curves on the CML for different
degrees of risk.

Step 5. Assume further that all assets are perfectly divisible and priced in
a perfectly competitive marked. Furthermore, there is a definite number of assets
and their quantities are fixed within the one period world. Then the portfolio M
turns out to be the market portfolio of all risky assets. The reason is that
equilibrium requires all prices to be adjusted so that the excess demand for any

289
asset is zero. That is, each asset is equally attractive to investors. Theoretically
the reduction of variance from diversification increases as the number of risky
assets included in the portfolio M rise. Therefore, all assets will be hold in the
portfolio M in accordance to their market value weight: wi = Vi/Vi, where Vi is
the market value of asset i and Vi is the market value of all assets. Proposition
2 may now be stated:

Proposition 2: With all the above assumptions in mind (step 1-5) the capital
market line (8) shows the relation between mean and variance of portfolios
(consisting of the risk free asset and the market portfolio) that are efficiently
priced and perfectly diversified.

The capital market line equation could rightly be called the capital
portfolio pricing model (CPPM) since it prices efficient portfolios. What is more
interesting is to develop an equation for pricing of individual assets. This is
exactly what the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) does. The CAP-model
does not requires any new assumptions only new algebraic manipulations within
the framework of the CPP-model

Step 6. From CPPM to CAPM. What is wanted is a model for efficient

pricing of capital for individual assets (E[k], the CAPM), not one for efficient
cost of capital for portfolios (p, the CPPM). Now, imagine a portfolio
consisting of % in a risky asset I and (1 - )% in the market portfolio M from
the CPP-model. The mean and the variance of this portfolio is by definition
E[kP] = E[k] + (1 - )E[km] (9)
VAR[kP] = 2VAR[k]+ (1- )2VAR[km]+ 2(1- )COV[k,km]
<=>
Rp = {2VAR[k]+ (1- )2VAR[km]+ 2(1- )COV[k,km]}-0,5
<=>
290
Rp = {2VAR[k]+ (1- )2VAR[km]+ 2COV[k,km] - 22COV[k,km]}-0,5 (10)
Taking the derivative of (9) and (10) with respect to  yields
E[kP]/ = E[k] - E[km] (11)
Rp/ = 0,5{2VAR[k]+ (1- )2VAR[km]+ 2COV[k,km] - 22COV[k,km]}-
0,5

*{2VAR[k] - 2(1-)VAR[km] + 2COV[k,km] - 4COV[k,km]} (12)

The basic insight that the Nobel laureate William Sharpe [the farther of the
CAP-model,
1963, 1964] provided, was that he noted that in the CPP-model-equilibrium the
market portfolio M already contains the risky asset I. If the risky asset I is added
to the market portfolio M in any positive quantities it creates an excess demand
for asset I by I. Therefore, equations (11) and (12) must be evaluated at  = 0
for the equations to describe an equilibrium portfolio. This is done below:
E[kP]/|=0 = E[k] - E[km] (11)
Rp/|=0 = 0,5(VAR[km])-0,5*(- 2VAR[km] + 2COV[k,km])
<=>
Rp/|=0 = (COV[k,km] - VAR[km])/(VAR[km])0,5
<=>
Rp/|=0 = (COV[k,km] - VAR[km])/m (13)
Now, the slope of an equilibrium portfolio evaluated at point M ( = 0)
becomes:
E[kP]//Rp/|=0 = (E[k] - E[km])/[(COV[k,km] - VAR[km])/m] (14)
The final insight is to note that this slope must be equal to the slope (7)
of the CPP-model since the capital market line is tangent to the market portfolio
M and the slope (14) is evaluated at M identical to M in the CPP-model and
under the same assumptions. Therefore:

291
(E[km] - kf)/m = (E[k] - E[km])/[(COV[k,km] - VAR[km])/m]
<=>
(E[km] - kf)/VAR[km] = (E[k] - E[km])/(COV[k,km] - VAR[km])
<=>
(E[km] - kf)/ VAR[km]*(COV[k,km] - VAR[km]) = E[k] - E[km]
<=>
E[k] = E[km] + (E[km] - kf)/ VAR[km]*(COV[k,km] - VAR[km])
<=>
E[k] = E[km] + (E[km] - kf)*(COV[k,km]/VAR[km]) - (E[km] - kf)
<=>
E[k] = (E[km] - kf)*(COV[k,km]/VAR[km]) + kf
<=>

E k  
k  E k k , where        
 
COV k, km 
VARk m
f m f m
m

Equation (15) is the CAP-model. It is also known as the security market line.

292
See figure III below.

Figure III: Optimal

asset choice for risk
averse investors in a
world
with many risky assets and
MediumLow
Erisk risk

Security
M market
E

R
High
risk COV k , k m
 m
 
VAR k m 

Comparing the CAP-model (15) by the CPP-model (8) reveals that they
are almost identical. They are both linear and they have the same measure for
the price of risk (E[km] - kf), but they measure the quantity of risk differently.
Where the CAPM measures the quantity of risk by its normalised covariance (m
= COV[k,km]/VAR[km]) the CPPM measures the quantity of risk by its
normalised standard deviation (/m  VAR[k]/VAR[km]). The reason to this
difference is that investors only want to pay (E[km] - kf) for undiversifiable risk.
The CPPM prices portfolios that are perfectly diversified. Therefore, the
appropriate measure for risk is the variance of that portfolio. Contrary, the
CAPM prices an individual asset that will be diversified. Therefore, only the
part of the variance that co-varies with a perfect diversified portfolio is relevant
to pay for. The following argument helps making this clearer.
293
 The variance of an equally weighted portfolio of N risky assets (weight:
wi =1/N, for all i[1,N]) is

VARk 
N N

 11 ij

 NN
j=1

i=1

<=>
2NN
1
VARk   
N
 ij

  i=1 j=1

<=>
2N
1 1
2
N N\ j=i
VARk     ii
N
      ij

  i=1 N
  i=1 j=1

As an approximation we may replace the individual variances and

covariance’s with their mean values. This implies:
2N
1 1
2N
N\ j=i
VARk    E ii     E  ij  

 N  i=1  N  i=1 j=1
<=>
VAR[k] = 1/N2 N*E[ii] + 1/N2*(N2 - N)E[ij]
<=>
VAR[k] = 1/N*E[ii] + (1 - 1/N)E[ij]
and
lim VAR[k] = E[ij]
N

This demonstrates that as the portfolio becomes more diversified by

letting the number of risky asset (N) in the portfolio rise, the covariance term
becomes relatively more important. Indeed, in the limit it is the only thing that
matters. Therefore, investors capable of creating perfect diversified portfolios
will only be willing to pay the price of risk (E[km] - kf) for an individual risky

294
asset in accordance with its covariance with a perfect diversified portfolio M.
The same could be said about the CPP-model. However, this model is pricing
assets (portfolios) that are already perfectly diversified and they will by
definition have the same characteristics as the market portfolio M. This implies
that the covariance is equal to the variance: 2m = VAR[km] = COV[km,km] ad
notam (2). In other words, the CPP-model is a special case of the more general
CAP-model.

PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT IN INDIA

In India until 1987 , except some banks and UTI, there was practically
no portfolio activities carried out substantially. After the setting up of public
sector mutual Funds backed by competent research staff and also the success of
mutual Funds in Portfolio Management, a number of brokers and Investment
Consultants some of whom are also professionally qualified have became
Portfolio Managers. The SEBI has now imposed stricter rules, which include:
registration, code of conduct and minimum infrastructure, experience and
expertise etc., marking Portfolio Management a respectable and responsible
professional service to be rendered by experts only.

Basically Portfolio Management involves: proper Investment decision-

making; proper Money Management on assets investments; reduction of the risk
with increased returns.

All investments bear risk with of course some risk free investments like
bank deposits etc. Risk varies in direct proportion with return - higher the risk
taken the higher will be the return and vice versa. Risk has two components -
systematic market or related risk and unsystematic risk or company specific

295
risk. The former cannot be eliminated but can be managed with the help of Beta
(â), where

 = % Change of Scrip return

% change of Market return
If â = I, the risk of the company is the same as that of the market and if
â < I, , the company's risk is less than the market risk.

Types of Risk
Unsystematic Risk Systematic Risk

Company related risks due to higher Market related risk due to demand
costs mismanagement defective sales problems,Interest rates, inflation, raw
or inventory, strategy., insolvency, fall materials, import and export policy,
in demand and company specific Tax, Policy etc., Business Risk, Market
recession, labour problems etc. – Risk Financial Risk, Interest
Rate Risk , inflation – Risk etc.

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

In order to determine the risk-adjusted returns of investment portfolios,

several eminent authors have worked since 1960s to develop composite
performance indices to evaluate a portfolio by comparing alternative portfolios
within a particular risk class. The most important and widely used measures of
performance are:

Ø The Treynor Measure

Ø The Sharpe Measure

Ø Jenson Model

Ø Fama Model
296
The Treynor Measure

Developed by Jack Treynor, this performance measure evaluates funds

on the basis of Treynor's Index. This Index is a ratio of return generated by the
fund over and above risk free rate of return (generally taken to be the return on
securities backed by the government, as there is no credit risk associated),
during a given period and systematic risk associated with it (beta). Symbolically,
it can be represented as:

Treynor's Index (Ti) = (Ri - Rf)/Bi.

Where, Ri represents return on fund, Rf is risk free rate of return and Bi

is beta of the fund.

All risk-averse investors would like to maximize this value. While a high
and positive Treynor's Index shows a superior risk-adjusted performance of a
fund, a low and negative Treynor's Index is an indication of unfavorable
performance.

The Sharpe Measure

In this model, performance of a fund is evaluated on the basis of Sharpe

Ratio, which is a ratio of returns generated by the fund over and above risk free
rate of return and the total risk associated with it. According to Sharpe, it is the
total risk of the fund that the investors are concerned about. So, the model
evaluates funds on the basis of reward per unit of total risk. Symbolically, it can
be written as:

Sharpe Index (Si) = (Ri - Rf)/Si

297
Where, Si is standard deviation of the fund.

While a high and positive Sharpe Ratio shows a superior risk-adjusted

performance of a fund, a low and negative Sharpe Ratio is an indication of
unfavorable performance. Comparison of Sharpe and Treynor

Sharpe and Treynor measures are similar in a way, since they both divide
the risk premium by a numerical risk measure. The total risk is appropriate when
we are evaluating the risk return relationship for well-diversified portfolios. On
the other hand, the systematic risk is the relevant measure of risk when we are
evaluating less than fully diversified portfolios or individual stocks. For a well-
diversified portfolio the total risk is equal to systematic risk. Rankings based on
total risk (Sharpe measure) and systematic risk (Treynor measure) should be
identical for a well-diversified portfolio, as the total risk is reduced to systematic
risk. Therefore, a poorly diversified fund that ranks higher on Treynor measure,
compared with another fund that is highly diversified, will rank lower on Sharpe
Measure.

Jenson Model

Jenson's model proposes another risk adjusted performance measure.

This measure was developed by Michael Jenson and is sometimes referred to as
the Differential Return Method. This measure involves evaluation of the returns
that the fund has generated vs. the returns actually expected out of the fund
given the level of its systematic risk. The surplus between the two returns is
called Alpha, which measures the performance of a fund compared with the
actual returns over the period. Required return of a fund at a given level of risk
(Bi) can be calculated as:

298
Ri = Rf + Bi (Rm - Rf)

Where, Rm is average market return during the given period. After

calculating it, alpha can be obtained by subtracting required return from the
actual return of the fund.

Higher alpha represents superior performance of the fund and vice versa.
Limitation of this model is that it considers only systematic risk not the entire
risk associated with the fund and an ordinary investor can not mitigate
unsystematic risk, as his knowledge of market is primitive.

Fama Model

The Eugene Fama model is an extension of Jenson model. This model

compares the performance, measured in terms of returns, of a fund with the
required return commensurate with the total risk associated with it. The
difference between these two is taken as a measure of the performance of the
fund and is called net selectivity.

The net selectivity represents the stock selection skill of the fund
manager, as it is the excess return over and above the return required to
compensate for the total risk taken by the fund manager. Higher value of which
indicates that fund manager has earned returns well above the return
commensurate with the level of risk taken by him.

Required return can be calculated as: Ri = Rf + Si/Sm*(Rm - Rf)

Where, Sm is standard deviation of market returns. The net selectivity is

then calculated by subtracting this required return from the actual return of the
fund.

299
 Among the above performance measures, two models namely, Treynor
measure and Jenson model use systematic risk based on the premise that the
unsystematic risk is diversifiable. These models are suitable for large investors
like institutional investors with high risk taking capacities as they do not face
paucity of funds and can invest in a number of options to dilute some risks. For
them, a portfolio can be spread across a number of stocks and sectors. However,
Sharpe measure and Fama model that consider the entire risk associated with
fund are suitable for small investors, as the ordinary investor lacks the necessary
skill and resources to diversified. Moreover, the selection of the fund on the
basis of superior stock selection ability of the fund manager will also help in
safeguarding the money invested to a great extent. The investment in funds that
have generated big returns at higher levels of risks leaves the money all the more
prone to risks of all kinds that may exceed the individual investors' risk appetite.

INVESTMENT COMPONENT

1. Stock Selection
Various methods have been developed to decompose total portfolio
returns and attribute it to each component. Eugene Fama has provided a frame
work for performance attribution. This is illustrated in Figure 14.1.

300
 Fig.Decomposition of performance [Source : Engene : ZF . Fame
components of Investment performance” Journal of Finance (June 1972), pp.
551 – 567.]

The vertical axis refers to return, the horizontal axis shows risk in terms
of beta The diagonal line is the Security Market Line (SML). The Security
Market Line links the risk-free rate of 2 percent and a market return of 9 per
cent. It provides the benchmark for assessing whether the realised return is
commensurate with the risk incurred. Fund A had a realised return of 8 percent
and a market risk of 0.67. The Fund would have been expected to earn 6.7
percent at the market risk level of f3A. But it actually earned 8% (point A).
Hence the excess return of 1.3 per cent ( r A -râA ) is the incremental return to
selectivity. Thus total excess return = selectivity + risk

rA -rf = rA -r ( f3A ) + r ( f3A )-rf

8% - 2% = (8% - 6.7) + (6.7% - 2%)

4.7 per cent represents the premium for risk

2. Risk Taking

To earn excess return, portfolio manages bear additional risk. By using

the Capital Market Line (CNL) we can determine the return commensurate with
risk as measured he stand deviation of return. The standard deviation of the
Fund is assumed to be 15 per cent and the standard deviation of the market 21
per cent; risk free rate is 2 per cent. The normal return for Fund A, using total
risk would be

rf+ (rm -rf) Op/Om

i.e. 2 % + ( 9 % -2 % ) 15 %/21 % = 7

301
 The difference between this normal return of 7% and 6.7% that was
expected pen only considering market risk is 1- 6.7 = 0.3

In the above figure it is the distance from r ( âA) to r ( SA ).

Net selectivity is the overall selectivity less compensation for

diversification risk.

Net Selectivity [rA – r(âA)] – [r (SA) – r (BA)]

= (8% - 6.7%) – 7% - 6.7%)

= 1.3 % - 0.3 % = 1%

Any funds overall performance can be thus decomposed into (1) due to
selectivity and (ii) due to risk taking.

3. Market Timing

Portfolio manger can also achieve superior performance by picking up

high beta stocks during a market upswing and moving out of equities and into
cash in declining markets. To study market timing ability one could calculate
the quarterly return for a fund and for the market like Bombay Stock Exchange’s
National Index of a 5 year period and plot them on a scatter diagram. Then a
characteristic line can be fitted.

302
Fig (a,b) : Fund return vs, market return for (a) superior stock selection and (b)
superior market timing [Source J.L.Treynor and K. Mazuy “Can Mutual Funds
otuguse the Market” Harvard Business Review (July August 1966) pp. 131.
136.]

The above figures give the excess return of the fund of the Y axis and
the excess return of the market index on the X axis. Both figures reveal positive
ex-post alphas. The scatter diagram shows that all the point cluster close to the
regression line indicating that the relationship between portfolio excess return
and market excess return is linear. The average beta of the portfolio is fairly
constant or the beta of the portfolio was roughly the same at all times. Since
alpha is positive, it appears that the excess return is due to his stock selection
abilities

In the second figure, the points in the middle lie below the regression
line and those at the ends lie above the regression line, which suggests that the
portfolio consisted of high beta securities when market return was high and low
beta securities when the market return was low

To describe this relationship, one can fit a curve to the points plotted by
adding a quadratic term to the simple linear relationship

rp a + brm + cr2 m, where

r2 m = return on the market index squared rp E return on the Fund

a, b,-C = values to be estimated by regression analysis

The figure indicates that the curve becomes steeper as one move to the
right of the diagram. The Fund movements are amplified on the upside and vice
versa. This implies that the Fund Manager was anticipating market changes

303
correctly and that the superior performance of the Fund can be attributed to skill
in timing

The performance of 37 mutual funds was studied by Jack L. Treynor and

Kay Mazuy over the period 1953 through 1962. Only one of the funds had a
fitted quadratic term that was significantly different from zero, indicating market
timing skills. The fitted relationship for other funds evidenced no curvilinear,
indicating that the funds did! not demonstrate any skills in market timing. This
entire period was one of rising market.

James Farrel covered market prices in both rising and falling markets
(1957 -1975) and came to the conclusion that Funds as a group do not make
substantial shifts in asset positioning to take advantage of market timing

SELF evaluation QUESTIONS

1. Discuss fully the Sharpe, Treynor and the Jensen measures of portfolio
returns

2. How are the returns on managed portfolio attributed to stock selection

and market timing? Discuss and illustrate

3. What is a portfolio? Why is it components?

4. Bring out the assumption of capital market Theory?

5. Explain the CAP model in pricing assets?

304
REFERENCES

GP Brinson, J J Diermier and G G Schlarbaum A Composite Portfolio

Benchmark for Pellsion Plall.s- Financial Analyst Joufllal, Marchi April 1. 986.
Eugene Fama Componellts oflnvestmellt Performance Journal of Finance,
June. 1972.

Michael Murphy , “why No One Can Tell Who's Winning Financial Analysts
Journal, May -June 1980

Jack L Treynor How to Rate Management of Investment FU/~ds Harvard

Business Review, January -February 1965

William F Sharpt Mutual Fund Performance Journal of Business, January

1966

305