Lecture Notes On The Carbon Cycle From A Climate Science Perspective
Lecture Notes On The Carbon Cycle From A Climate Science Perspective
Lecture Notes On The Carbon Cycle From A Climate Science Perspective
and climate change
Andrew Manning
School of Environmental Sciences
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ENV‐6008A
The carbon cycle and climate change
Lecturers: Andrew Manning, Carol Robinson,
Parv Suntharalingam
Time slot: Autumn semester
Assessment: 50% courserwork; 50% exam.
ENV‐6008A
The carbon cycle and climate change
Atmospheric CO2 and O2
Ocean carbon cycle
Land carbon cycle
Carbon sources and sinks
Carbon‐climate feedbacks
Stable and unstable isotopes of carbon
Methane and other GHGs
Palaeocarbon
Estimating GHG emissions
Countering climate denialists
Geo‐engineering (carbon‐based)
• Is our climate
changing?
• Is it caused by human
activities?
• Is it a problem?
• What should we do
about it?
The greenhouse effect
IPCC, AR4, WGI, Ch. 1, FAQ 1.3 Figure 1 (2007)
Is the greenhouse effect a
good or a bad thing?
A) Good
B) Bad
C) It depends…
With no greenhouse
gases, the average
surface temperature of
the Earth would be ‐18°C!
Instead, it is +15°C.
But you can always have
too much of a good thing.
How many greenhouse
gases are there on Earth?
A) ~5
B) ~20
C) ~50
D) ~200
And we keep finding more!
UEA is the world‐leader at
finding new greenhouse
gases.
Bill Sturges and
Emma Elvidge
Is carbon dioxide a strong or
weak greenhouse gas?
A) Weak
B) Strong
C) Average
But, compared to all others
(except water), there is lots
and lots of it!
Composition of atmosphere
GAS VOLUME
Nitrogen (N2) 78.1% (780,000 ppm)
Oxygen (O2) 20.9% (209,000 ppm)
Argon (Ar) 0.9% (9,000 ppm)
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 400 ppm
Neon (Ne) 18 ppm
Helium (He) 5.2 ppm
Methane (CH4) 1.8 ppm
Krypton (Kr) 1.1 ppm
Hydrogen (H2) 0.55 ppm
Nitrous oxide (N2O) 0.32 ppm
Carbon monoxide (CO)0.1 ppm
Water vapour (H2O) ~0.4% over whole
atmosphere;
1‐4% at surface.
Also, CO2 is increasing far,
far faster in the atmosphere
than any other gas.
Data available from: http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/
Rate completely unprecedented!
Is today’s atmospheric CO2
concentration completely
unprecedented? No!
For context,
deep ocean
temperature
today is 0 to 3°C
Jansen et al.,
IPCC AR4, Ch. 6
(2007)
But what about our future?
Following red or
blue line is a
policy decision.
Top, bottom or
middle of
red/blue bands
is scientific
understanding
(or lack of it!)
1900 2000 2100 Meinshausen et al., Nature, 2009
Very, very important to
understand the carbon
cycle better.
Problem: it’s very
complicated!
But let’s
make a
start…
Fossil fuels Atmosphere
Land biosphere Oceans
Land‐use change
1
0.2 0.2
2.5
2.5 90
120
Pool sizes in Pg C;
Fluxes (arrows)
in Pg C/yr;
1 Pg C
= 1 billion tonnes C 3 (organic)
2100 – Land biosphere = 1 Gt C
2016/17 UEA Guest Lecture Series
38,000 (DIC) – Oceans
10 Pg C/yr emitted by fossil fuels in 2018
About half absorbed by oceans and land
(i.e. despite deforestation + biomass
burning, global land biosphere is
increasing (CO2 fertilisation).
‐ Called land and ocean carbon sinks.
Hugely reduces climate change! – we are
very lucky!
But will our luck run out???
Land and oceans are changing as climate
changes – what’s going to happen?
First complexity: How to
measure the carbon sinks?
Use global
ocean
models…
or measure
atmospheric
oxygen.
Data available from: http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/
Global CO2 concentration movie
From: http://www.nasa.gov/press/goddard/2014/november/nasa‐computer‐model‐provides‐a‐new‐portrait‐of‐carbon‐dioxide/
Second complexity: Carbon
sinks (land + ocean) hugely
variable.
Sarmiento et al., Biogeosciences, 2010
Third complexity: WHERE is
the carbon going?
‐ Southern Ocean?
‐ North Atlantic Ocean?
‐ Boreal forests? (Siberia/Canada)
‐ Tropical forests?
‐ Somewhere else unexpected?
Fourth complexity: Everything is
changing!
‐ Plants (land and ocean), which
take up CO2, respond differently as
planet warms.
‐ Land plants respond differently to
higher CO2 concentration.
‐ Ocean circulation is changing (e.g.
deep waters have high CO2 – if they
come to surface, CO2 outgasses.
We don’t know what’s going to
happen to the carbon sinks…
C4MIP Projections Additional warming due to feedbacks:
11 coupled climate‐carbon cycle models. 0.1°C to 1.5°C range.
LAND OCEANS
Friedlingstein et al., J. Climate (2006)
Land biosphere: gross vs net fluxes
1% change in GPP similar to 100% change in NBP!
GPP = gross primary
production = amount of
carbon fixed by
photosynthesis per year.
NPP = net primary
production = GPP minus
plant respiration back to 60 Pg C/yr 50 Pg C/yr
8‐9 Pg C/yr
the atmosphere.
NEP = net ecosystem
production = NPP minus 120 Pg C/yr
respiration by fungi,
bacteria, animals.
NBP = net biosphere
production = NEP minus
1 Pg C/yr = 1 Gt/yr
carbon lost to
atmosphere via Note: NBP sometimes called Source: IGBP/GCTE project
disturbance such as fire NEE = net ecosystem exchange.
and storm damage.
Possible saturation of Southern Ocean CO2 sink
Based on observed atmospheric carbon
dioxide (CO2) concentration and an
inverse method, we estimate that the
Southern Ocean sink of CO2 has
weakened between 1981 and 2004 by
0.08 Pg C yr‐1 per decade relative to
the trend expected from the large
increase in atmospheric CO2. We
attribute this weakening to the
observed increase in Southern Ocean
winds resulting from human activities,
which is projected to continue in the
future. Consequences include a
reduction of the efficiency of the
Southern Ocean sink of CO2 in the short
term (about 25 years) and possibly a
higher level of stabilization of
atmospheric CO2 on a multicentury
time scale.
Le Quéré et al., Science (2007).
If you’re still not convinced
that studying the carbon cycle
is incredibly important – it is
also very cool!
See following slides from field
work…
Baring Head, New Zealand (40°S)
Baring Head, New Zealand (40°S)
Baring Head, New Zealand (40°S)
Zotino, Central Siberia, Russia (60°N, 90°E)