Individual Finance PDF
Individual Finance PDF
Individual Finance PDF
v. 1.0
This is the book Individual Finance (v. 1.0).
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ii
Table of Contents
About the Authors................................................................................................................. 1
Acknowledgments................................................................................................................. 3
Dedications ............................................................................................................................. 4
Preface..................................................................................................................................... 5
Chapter 1: Personal Financial Planning......................................................................... 10
Individual or “Micro” Factors That Affect Financial Thinking ............................................................... 14
Systemic or “Macro” Factors That Affect Financial Thinking ................................................................ 20
The Planning Process................................................................................................................................... 29
Financial Planning Professionals ............................................................................................................... 39
Chapter 2: Basic Ideas of Finance .................................................................................... 43
Income and Expenses................................................................................................................................... 44
Assets............................................................................................................................................................. 52
Debt and Equity ............................................................................................................................................ 57
Income and Risk ........................................................................................................................................... 63
Chapter 3: Financial Statements...................................................................................... 65
Accounting and Financial Statements ....................................................................................................... 66
Comparing and Analyzing Financial Statements ..................................................................................... 79
Accounting Software: An Overview ........................................................................................................... 98
Chapter 4: Evaluating Choices: Time, Risk, and Value ............................................. 104
The Time Value of Money ......................................................................................................................... 105
Calculating the Relationship of Time and Value .................................................................................... 108
Valuing a Series of Cash Flows.................................................................................................................. 115
Using Financial Statements to Evaluate Financial Choices ................................................................... 126
Evaluating Risk ........................................................................................................................................... 132
Chapter 5: Financial Plans: Budgets ............................................................................. 138
The Budget Process.................................................................................................................................... 139
Creating the Comprehensive Budget ....................................................................................................... 143
The Cash Budget and Other Specialized Budgets ................................................................................... 155
Budget Variances ....................................................................................................................................... 160
Budgets, Financial Statements, and Financial Decisions ....................................................................... 167
iii
Chapter 6: Taxes and Tax Planning............................................................................... 171
Sources of Taxation and Kinds of Taxes .................................................................................................. 172
The U.S. Federal Income Tax Process ...................................................................................................... 179
Record Keeping, Preparation, and Filing................................................................................................. 191
Taxes and Financial Planning ................................................................................................................... 199
Chapter 7: Financial Management ................................................................................ 204
Your Own Money: Cash.............................................................................................................................. 206
Your Own Money: Savings ........................................................................................................................ 208
Other People’s Money: Credit ................................................................................................................... 217
Other People’s Money: An Introduction to Debt .................................................................................... 231
Chapter 8: Consumer Strategies .................................................................................... 237
Consumer Purchases.................................................................................................................................. 238
A Major Purchase: Buying a Car ............................................................................................................... 254
Chapter 9: Buying a Home............................................................................................... 266
Identify the Product and the Market ....................................................................................................... 267
Identify the Financing ............................................................................................................................... 280
Purchasing and Owning Your Home ........................................................................................................ 291
Chapter 10: Personal Risk Management: Insurance.................................................. 298
Insuring Your Property ............................................................................................................................. 300
Insuring Your Health ................................................................................................................................. 311
Insuring Your Income................................................................................................................................ 323
Chapter 11: Personal Risk Management: Retirement and Estate Planning ......... 333
Retirement Planning: Projecting Needs .................................................................................................. 334
Retirement Planning: Ways to Save ......................................................................................................... 342
Estate Planning........................................................................................................................................... 352
Chapter 12: Investing ....................................................................................................... 359
Investments and Markets: A Brief Overview........................................................................................... 360
Investment Planning ................................................................................................................................. 371
Measuring Return and Risk....................................................................................................................... 380
Diversification: Return with Less Risk ..................................................................................................... 387
Chapter 13: Behavioral Finance and Market Behavior............................................. 393
Investor Behavior....................................................................................................................................... 394
Market Behavior ........................................................................................................................................ 403
Extreme Market Behavior ......................................................................................................................... 408
Behavioral Finance and Investment Strategies ...................................................................................... 414
iv
Chapter 14: The Practice of Investment....................................................................... 421
Investment Information............................................................................................................................ 422
Investing and Trading ............................................................................................................................... 431
Ethics and Regulation ................................................................................................................................ 437
Investing Internationally: Risks and Regulations................................................................................... 446
Chapter 15: Owning Stocks ............................................................................................. 453
Stocks and Stock Markets ......................................................................................................................... 455
Stock Value ................................................................................................................................................. 463
Common Measures of Value ..................................................................................................................... 468
Equity Strategies ........................................................................................................................................ 476
Chapter 16: Owning Bonds .............................................................................................. 481
Bonds and Bond Markets........................................................................................................................... 482
Bond Value.................................................................................................................................................. 491
Bond Strategies .......................................................................................................................................... 503
Chapter 17: Investing in Mutual Funds, Commodities, Real Estate, and
Collectibles ......................................................................................................................... 508
Mutual Funds.............................................................................................................................................. 509
Real Estate Investments ............................................................................................................................ 522
Commodities and Collectibles................................................................................................................... 527
Chapter 18: Career Planning .......................................................................................... 536
Choosing a Job ............................................................................................................................................ 538
Finding a Job ............................................................................................................................................... 547
Leaving a Job............................................................................................................................................... 562
v
About the Authors
Rachel S. Siegel, CFA
Siegel is a member of the Vermont CFA Society, the CFA Photograph by David G. Ballou.
Institute, and the Board of Scholars of the Ethan Allen
Institute, as well as a voting member of the National
Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences. She has served
as a consultant on investment strategy to the Vermont
Land Trust and to other private clients.
Siegel’s column “Follow the Money” has been a regular feature of the Northstar
Monthly since 2001.
Yacht’s writing career started in the classroom. To help her students learn new
business and technology concepts, Yacht created instructional material. Her first
book was published in 1979. Yacht is committed to teaching, learning, sharing, and
writing. She is a frequent presenter at conferences.
1
About the Authors
In 2005, Yacht received the Lifetime Achievement Award from the American
Accounting Association Two-Year College Section. She is also a recipient of the
Business Education Leadership Award from the State of California.
Yacht received her MA from California State University–Los Angeles, BS from the
University of New Mexico, and AS from Temple University.
Yacht is married to the artist Brice Wood. Her son, Matthew Lowenkron, is an
accountant, and her stepdaughter, Jessica Wood, is a writer.
2
Acknowledgments
I am very grateful to Jeff Shelstad, Mary Ellen Lepionka, Shannon Gattens, and the
staff at Unnamed Publisher. Friends and family have been more than patient
throughout; their faith has been unfailing and their support has been vital. I am
thankful for the inspiration of several great teachers, notably Stan Gartska, Stephen
A. Ross, Jon Ingersoll, and Barbara Stanhope. Most of all, I have been fortunate to
have been taught by hundreds of students, of all ages and stages, from whom I have
learned so much.
—Rachel S. Siegel
3
Dedications
This text is dedicated to my parents, Jason and Tovia Siegel.
4
Preface
This text has an attitude: that in addition to providing sources of practical
information, it should introduce you to a way of thinking about your personal
financial decisions. This should lead you to thinking harder and farther about the
larger and longer consequences of your decisions. Many of the more practical
aspects of personal finance will change over time, as practices, technologies,
intermediaries, customs, and laws change, but a fundamental awareness of ways to
think well about solving financial questions can always be useful. Some of the more
practical ideas may be obviously and immediately relevant—and some not—but
decision-making and research skills are lasting.
You may be enrolled in a traditional two- or four-year degree program or may just
be taking the course for personal growth. You may be of any age and may have
already done more or less academic and experiential learning. You may be a
business major, with some prerequisite knowledge of economics or level of
accounting or math skills, or you may be filling in an elective and have no such
skills. In fact, although they enhance personal finance decisions, such skills are not
necessary. Software, downloadable applications, and calculators perform ever more
sophisticated functions with ever more approachable interfaces. The emphasis in
this text is on understanding the fundamental relationships behind the math and
being able to use that understanding to make better decisions about your personal
finances.
Entire tomes, both academic texts and trade books, have been and will be written
about any of the subjects featured in each chapter of this text. The idea here is to
introduce you to the practical and conceptual framework for making personal
financial decisions in the larger context of your life, and in the even larger context
of your individual life as part of a greater economy of financial participants.
Structure
5
Preface
This structure is based on the typical life cycle of personal financial decisions,
which in turn is based on the premise that in a market economy, an individual
participates by trading something of value: labor or capital. Most of us start with
nothing to trade but labor. We hope to sustain our desired lifestyle on the earnings
from labor and to gradually (or quickly) amass capital that will then provide
additional earnings.
Chapter 2 "Basic Ideas of Finance" introduces the basic financial and accounting
categories of revenues, expenses, assets, liabilities, and net worth as tools to
understand the relationships between them as a way, in turn, of organizing
financial thinking. It also introduces the concepts of opportunity costs and sunk
costs as implicit but critical considerations in financial thinking.
6
Preface
Chapter 4 "Evaluating Choices: Time, Risk, and Value" introduces the critical
relationships of time and risk to value. It demonstrates the math but focuses on the
role that those relationships play in financial thinking, especially in comparing and
evaluating choices in making financial decisions.
Chapter 6 "Taxes and Tax Planning" discusses the role of taxation in personal
finance and its effects on earnings and on accumulating wealth. The chapter
emphasizes the types, purposes, and impacts of taxes; the organization of resources
for information; and the areas of controversy that lead to changes in the tax rules.
Chapter 9 "Buying a Home" applies the ideas developed in the previous chapter to
what, for most people, will be the major purchase: a home. The chapter discusses its
role both as a living expense and an investment, as well as the financing and
financial consequences of the purchase.
7
Preface
Chapter 13 "Behavioral Finance and Market Behavior" then digresses from classical
theory to take a look at how both personal and market behavior can deviate from
the classic risk-return relationships and the consequences for personal financial
planning and thinking.
8
Preface
Chapter 18 "Career Planning" brings the planning process full circle with a
discussion on how to think about getting started, that is, deciding how to approach
the process of selling your labor. The chapter introduces the idea of selling labor as
a consumable commodity to employers in the labor market and explores how to
search and apply for a job in light of its strategic as well as immediate potential.
9
Chapter 1
Personal Financial Planning
Introduction
Bryon and Tomika are just one semester shy of graduating from a state college.
Bryon is getting a degree in protective services and is thinking of going for
certification as a fire protection engineer, which would cost an additional $4,500.
With his protective services degree many other fields will be open to him as
well—from first responder to game warden or correctional officer. Bryon will have
to specialize immediately and wants a job in his state that comes with some
occupational safety and a lot of job security.
Tomika qualified for a Stafford loan, and the federal government subsidizes her
loan by paying the interest on it until six months after she graduates. She will owe
about $40,000 of principal plus interest at a fixed annual rate of 6.8 percent. Tomika
plans to start working immediately on graduation and to take classes on the job or
at night for as long as it takes to get the extra certification she needs. Unsubsidized,
the extra training would cost about $3,500. She presently earns about $5,000 a year
working weekends as a home health aide and could easily double that after she
graduates. Tomika also qualified for a Pell grant of around $5,000 each year she was
a full-time student, which has paid for her rooms in an off-campus student co-op
housing unit. Bryon also lives there, and that’s how they met.
Bryon would like to get to a point in his life where he can propose marriage to
Tomika and looks forward to being a family man one day. He was awarded a service
scholarship from his hometown and received windfall money from his
grandmother’s estate after she died in his sophomore year. He also borrowed
$30,000 for five years at only 2.25 percent interest from his local bank through a
family circle savings plan. He has been attending classes part-time year-round so he
can work to earn money for college and living expenses. He earns about $19,000 a
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Chapter 1 Personal Financial Planning
year working for catering services. Bryon feels very strongly about repaying his
relatives who have helped finance his education and also is willing to help Tomika
pay off her Stafford loan after they marry.
Tomika has $3,000 in U.S. Treasury Series EE savings bonds, which mature in two
years, and has managed to put aside $600 in a savings account earmarked for
clothes and gifts. Bryon has sunk all his savings into tuition and books, and his only
other asset is his trusty old pickup truck, which has no liens and a trade-in value of
$3,900. For both Tomika and Bryon, having reliable transportation to their jobs is a
concern. Tomika hopes to continue using public transportation to get to a new job
after graduation. Both Bryon and Tomika are smart enough about money to have
avoided getting into credit card debt. Each keeps only one major credit card and a
debit card and with rare exceptions pays statements in full each month.
Bryon and Tomika will have to find new housing after they graduate. They could
look for another cooperative housing opportunity or rent apartments, or they could
get married now instead of waiting. Bryon also has a rent-free option of moving in
temporarily with his brother. Tomika feels very strongly about saving money to buy
a home and wants to wait until her career is well established before having a child.
Tomika is concerned about getting good job benefits, especially medical insurance
and family leave. Although still young, Bryon is concerned about being able to
retire, the sooner the better, but he has no idea how that would be possible. He
thinks he would enjoy running his own catering firm as a retirement business some
day.
Tomika’s starting salary as a lab technician will be about $30,000, and as a fire
protection engineer, Bryon would have a starting salary of about $38,000. Both have
the potential to double their salaries after fifteen years on the job, but they are
worried about the economy. Their graduations are coinciding with a downturn.
Aside from Tomika’s savings bonds, she and Bryon are not in the investment
market, although as soon as he can Bryon wants to invest in a diversified portfolio
of money market funds that include corporate stocks and municipal bonds.
Nevertheless, the state of the economy affects their situation. Money is tight and
loans are hard to get, jobs are scarce and highly competitive, purchasing power and
interest rates are rising, and pension plans and retirement funds are at risk of
losing value. It’s uncertain how long it will be before the trend reverses, so for the
short term, they need to play it safe. What if they can’t land the jobs they’re
preparing for?
Tomika and Bryon certainly have a lot of decisions to make, and some of those
decisions have high-stakes consequences for their lives. In making those decisions,
they will have to answer some questions, such as the following:
11
Chapter 1 Personal Financial Planning
You will make financial decisions all your life. Sometimes you can see those
decisions coming and plan deliberately; sometimes, well, stuff happens, and you are
faced with a more sudden decision. Personal financial planning is about making
deliberate decisions that allow you to get closer to your goals or sudden decisions
that allow you to stay on track, even when things take an unexpected turn.
The idea of personal financial planning is really no different from the idea of
planning most anything: you figure out where you’d like to be, where you are, and
how to go from here to there. The process is complicated by the number of factors
to consider, by their complex relationships to each other, and by the profound
nature of these decisions, because how you finance your life will, to a large extent,
determine the life that you live. The process is also, often enormously, complicated
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Chapter 1 Personal Financial Planning
by risk: you are often making decisions with plenty of information, but little
certainty or even predictability.
Personal financial planning is a lifelong process. Your time horizon is as long as can
be—until the very end of your life—and during that time your circumstances will
change in predictable and unpredictable ways. A financial plan has to be re-
evaluated, adjusted, and re-adjusted. It has to be flexible enough to be responsive to
unanticipated needs and desires, robust enough to advance toward goals, and all
the while be able to protect from unimagined risks.
One of the most critical resources in the planning process is information. We live in
a world awash in information—and no shortage of advice—but to use that
information well you have to understand what it is telling you, why it matters,
where it comes from, and how to use it in the planning process. You need to be able
to put that information in context, before you can use it wisely. That context
includes factors in your individual situation that affect your financial thinking, and
factors in the wider economy that affect your financial decision making.
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Chapter 1 Personal Financial Planning
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Family Structure
Partners and dependents affect your financial planning as you seek to provide for
them, such as paying for children’s education. Parents typically want to protect or
improve the quality of life for their children and may choose to limit their own
fulfillment to achieve that end.
Providing for others increases income needs. Being responsible for others also
affects your attitudes toward and tolerance of risk. Typically, both the willingness
and ability to assume risk diminishes with dependents, and a desire for more
financial protection grows. People often seek protection for their income or assets
even past their own lifetimes to ensure the continued well-being of partners and
dependents. An example is a life insurance policy naming a spouse or dependents as
beneficiaries.
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Chapter 1 Personal Financial Planning
Health
Your health is another defining circumstance that will affect your expected income
needs and risk tolerance and thus your personal financial planning. Personal
financial planning should include some protection against the risk of chronic
illness, accident, or long-term disability and some provision for short-term events,
such as pregnancy and birth. If your health limits your earnings or ability to work
or adds significantly to your expenditures, your income needs may increase. The
need to protect yourself against further limitations or increased costs may also
increase. At the same time your tolerance for risk may decrease, further affecting
your financial decisions.
Career Choice
Your career choices affect your financial planning, especially through educational
requirements, income potential, and characteristics of the occupation or profession
you choose. Careers have different hours, pay, benefits, risk factors, and patterns of
advancement over time. Thus, your financial planning will reflect the realities of
being a postal worker, professional athlete, commissioned sales representative,
corporate lawyer, freelance photographer, librarian, building contractor, tax
preparer, professor, Web site designer, and so on. For example, the careers of most
athletes end before middle age, have higher risk of injury, and command steady,
higher-than-average incomes, while the careers of most sales representatives last
longer with greater risk of unpredictable income fluctuations. Figure 1.1 "Median
Salary Comparisons by Profession" compares the median salaries of certain careers.
Most people begin their independent financial lives by selling their labor to create
an income by working. Over time they may choose to change careers, develop
additional sources of concurrent income, move between employment and self-
employment, or become unemployed or reemployed. Along with career choices, all
these changes affect personal financial management and planning.
Age
Needs, desires, values, and priorities all change over a lifetime, and financial
concerns change accordingly. Ideally, personal finance is a process of management
1. Periods of a person’s life based and planning that anticipates or keeps abreast with changes. Although everyone is
on age and personal
circumstances that reflect different, some financial concerns are common to or typical of the different stages
different needs, goals, and of adult life. Analysis of life stages1 is part of financial planning.
financial capabilities.
2. Resources that can be used to At the beginning of your adult life, you are more likely to have no dependents, little
create future economic benefit,
if any accumulated wealth, and few assets2. (Assets are resources that can be used
such as increasing income,
decreasing expenses, or storing to create income, decrease expenses, or store wealth as an investment.) As a young
wealth as an investment. adult you also are likely to have comparatively small income needs, especially if you
are providing only for yourself. Your employment income is probably your primary
or sole source of income. Having no one and almost nothing to protect, your
willingness to assume risk is usually high. At this point in your life, you are focused
on developing your career and increasing your earned income. Any investments
you may have are geared toward growth.
© 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
Early and middle adulthoods are periods of building up: building a family, building a
career, increasing earned income, and accumulating assets. Spending needs
increase, but so do investments and alternative sources of income.
Without dependents, spending needs decrease. On the other hand, you may feel free
to finally indulge in those things that you’ve “always wanted.” There are no longer
dependents to protect, but assets demand even more protection as, without
employment, they are your only source of income. Typically, your ability to assume
risk is high because of your accumulated assets, but your willingness to assume risk
is low, as you are now dependent on those assets for income. As a result, risk
tolerance decreases: you are less concerned with increasing wealth than you are
with protecting it.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Financial planning has to take into account conditions in the wider economy and in
the markets that make up the economy. The labor market3, for example, is where
labor is traded through hiring or employment. Workers compete for jobs and
employers compete for workers. In the capital market4, capital (cash or assets) is
traded, most commonly in the form of stocks and bonds (along with other ways to
package capital). In the credit market5, a part of the capital market, capital is
3. Where labor is traded through
loaned and borrowed rather than bought and sold. These and other markets exist in
hiring or employment and
price is determined by the a dynamic economic environment, and those environmental realities are part of
interaction of employers and sound financial planning.
employees.
4. A market where long-term In the long term, history has proven that an economy can grow over time, that
liquidity is traded.
investments can earn returns, and that the value of currency can remain relatively
5. A part of the capital market stable. In the short term, however, that is not continuously true. Contrary or
where capital is lent and unsettled periods can upset financial plans, especially if they last long enough or
borrowed through the trading
of debt securities such as
happen at just the wrong time in your life. Understanding large-scale economic
bonds. patterns and factors that indicate the health of an economy can help you make
better financial decisions. These systemic factors include, for example, business
6. The total value of all final
goods and services produced in
cycles and employment rates.
a year in a nation’s economy. It
is used as a fundamental
measure of an economy’s
Business Cycles
growth based on its ability to
use resources productively and An economy tends to be productive enough to provide for the wants of its members.
provide for its members.
Normally, economic output increases as population increases or as people’s
7. A period of economic expectations grow. An economy’s output or productivity is measured by its gross
contraction lasting at least six domestic product6 or GDP, the value of what is produced in a period. When the
consecutive months or two
consecutive quarters. GDP is increasing, the economy is in an expansion, and when it is decreasing, the
economy is in a contraction. An economy that contracts for half a year is said to be
8. A prolonged and severe in recession7; a prolonged recession is a depression8. The GDP is a closely watched
recession.
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Chapter 1 Personal Financial Planning
barometer of the economy (see Figure 1.4 "GDP Percent Change (Based on Current
Dollars)").
Figure 1.4 GDP Percent Change (Based on Current Dollars)Based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, http://www.bea.gov/national/ (accessed November 21, 2009).
Over time, the economy tends to be cyclical, usually expanding but sometimes
contracting. This is called the business cycle9. Periods of contraction are generally
seen as market corrections, or the market regaining its equilibrium, after periods of
growth. Growth is never perfectly smooth, so sometimes certain markets become
unbalanced and need to correct themselves. Over time, the periods of contraction
seem to have become less frequent, as you can see in Figure 1.4 "GDP Percent
Change (Based on Current Dollars)". The business cycles still occur nevertheless.
There are many metaphors to describe the cyclical nature of market economies:
“peaks and troughs,” “boom and bust,” “growth and contraction,” “expansion and
correction,” and so on. While each cycle is born in a unique combination of
circumstances, cycles occur because things change and upset economic equilibrium.
That is, events change the balance between supply and demand in the economy
overall. Sometimes demand grows too fast and supply can’t keep up, and sometimes
supply grows too fast for demand. There are many reasons that this could happen,
but whatever the reasons, buyers and sellers react to this imbalance, which then
creates a change.
economy through the market. Otherwise, more people must be provided for in some
other way, such as a private or public subsidy (charity or welfare).
The employment rate11, or the participation rate of the labor force, shows how
successful an economy is at creating opportunities to sell labor and efficiently using
its human resources. A healthy market economy uses its labor productively, is
productive, and provides employment opportunities as well as consumer
satisfaction through its markets. Figure 1.6 "Cyclical Economic Effects" shows the
relationship between GDP and unemployment and each stage of the business cycle.
usually rise faster than wages, for many reasons, which would discourage
consumption that would eventually discourage production and cause the economy
to slow down from its “boom” condition into a more manageable rate of growth.
If there is too little demand for labor—more workers than jobs—then wages will fall
or, more typically, there will be people without jobs, or unemployment. If wages
become low enough, employers theoretically will be encouraged to hire more labor,
which would bring employment levels back up. However, it doesn’t always work
that way, because people have job mobility—they are willing and able to move
between economies to seek employment.
If unemployment is high and prolonged, then too many people are without wages
for too long, and they are not able to participate in the economy because they have
nothing to trade. In that case, the market economy is just not working for too many
people, and they will eventually demand a change (which is how most revolutions
have started).
Other economic indicators give us clues as to how “successful” our economy is, how
well it is growing, or how well positioned it is for future growth. These indicators
include statistics, such as the number of houses being built or existing home sales,
orders for durable goods (e.g., appliances and automobiles), consumer confidence,
producer prices, and so on. However, GDP growth and unemployment are the two
most closely watched indicators, because they get at the heart of what our economy
is supposed to accomplish: to provide diverse opportunities for the most people to
participate in the economy, to create jobs, and to satisfy the consumption needs of
the most people by enabling them to get what they want.
An expanding and healthy economy will offer more choices to participants: more
choices for trading labor and for trading capital. It offers more opportunities to
earn a return or an income and therefore also offers more diversification and less
risk.
Naturally, everyone would rather operate in a healthier economy at all times, but
this is not always possible. Financial planning must include planning for the risk
that economic factors will affect financial realities. A recession may increase
unemployment, lowering the return on labor—wages—or making it harder to
anticipate an increase in income. Wage income could be lost altogether. Such
temporary involuntary loss of wage income probably will happen to you during
your lifetime, as you inevitably will endure economic cycles.
Currency Value
A currency’s usefulness is based on what it can buy, or its purchasing power12. The
more a currency can buy, the more useful and valuable it is. When prices rise or
when things cost more, purchasing power decreases; the currency buys less and its
value decreases.
When the value of a currency decreases, an economy has inflation13. Its currency
has less value because it is less useful; that is, less can be bought with it. Prices are
rising. It takes more units of currency to buy the same amount of goods. When the
value of a currency increases, on the other hand, an economy has deflation14.
12. A currency’s usefulness and
Prices are falling; the currency is worth more and buys more.
thus its value as measured by
how much it can buy, that is,
the quantity of goods and
services that can be purchased For example, say you can buy five video games for $20. Each game is worth $4, or
with one unit of currency. each dollar buys ¼ of a game. Then we have inflation, and prices—including the
price of video games—rise. A year later you want to buy games, but now your $20
13. Period characterized by rising
prices, declining purchasing only buys two games. Each one costs $10, or each dollar only buys one-tenth of a
power, and lower currency game. Rising prices have eroded the purchasing power of your dollars.
values (one unit of currency is
worth less because it buys a
smaller quantity of goods and If there is deflation, prices fall, so maybe a year later you could buy ten video games
services). with your same $20. Now each game costs only $2, and each dollar buys half a game.
14. Period characterized by falling The same amount of currency buys more games: its purchasing power has
prices, increasing purchasing increased, as has its usefulness and its value (Figure 1.7 "Dynamics of Currency
power, and higher currency Value").
values (one unit of currency is
worth more because it buys a
greater quantity of goods and
services).
Currency instabilities can also affect investment values, because the dollars that
investments return don’t have the same value as the dollars that the investment
was expected to return. Say you lend $100 to your sister, who is supposed to pay
you back one year from now. There is inflation, so over the next year, the value of
the dollar decreases (it buys less as prices rise). Your sister does indeed pay you
back on time, but now the $100 that she gives back to you is worth less (because it
buys less) than the $100 you gave her. Your investment, although nominally
returned, has lost value: you have your $100 back, but you can’t do as much with it;
it is less useful.
It is human nature to assume that things will stay the same, but financial planning
must include the assumption that over a lifetime you will encounter and endure
economic cycles. You should try to anticipate the risks of an economic downturn
and the possible loss of wage income and/or investment income. At the same time,
you should not assume or rely on the windfalls of an economic expansion.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ business cycles,
◦ changes in the economy’s productivity,
◦ changes in the currency value,
◦ changes in other economic indicators.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Trace the steps of the financial planning process and explain why that
process needs to be repeated over time.
2. Characterize effective goals and differentiate goals in terms of timing.
3. Explain and illustrate the relationships among costs, benefits, and risks.
4. Analyze cases of financial decision making by applying the planning
process.
A financial planning process16 involves figuring out where you’d like to be, where
you are, and how to go from here to there. More formally, a financial planning
process means the following:
• Defining goals
• Assessing the current situation
• Identifying choices
• Evaluating choices
• Choosing
• Assessing the resulting situation
• Redefining goals
• Identifying new choices
• Evaluating new choices
• Choosing
• Assessing the resulting situation over and over again
Personal circumstances change, and the economy changes, so your plans must be
flexible enough to adapt to those changes, yet be steady enough to eventually
achieve long-term goals. You must be constantly alert to those changes but “have a
strong foundation when the winds of changes shift.”“Forever Young,” music and
lyrics by Bob Dylan.
Defining Goals
16. A recursive process of defining
goals, assessing situations, Figuring out where you want to go is a process of defining goals. You have shorter-
identifying and evaluating
term (1–2 years), intermediate (2–10 years), and longer-term goals that are quite
choices, making choices and
assessing the results, realistic and goals that are more wishful. Setting goals is a skill that usually
redefining goals, and so on. improves with experience. According to a popular model, to be truly useful goals
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Chapter 1 Personal Financial Planning
For example, after graduating from college, Alice has an immediate focus on
earning income to provide for living expenses and debt (student loan) obligations.
Within the next decade, she foresees having a family; if so, she will want to
purchase a house and perhaps start saving for her children’s educations. Her
income will have to provide for her increased expenses and also generate a surplus
that can be saved to accumulate these assets.
In the long term, she will want to be able to retire and derive all her income from
her accumulated assets, and perhaps travel around the world in a sailboat. She will
have to have accumulated enough assets to provide for her retirement income and
for the travel. Figure 1.10 "Timing, Goals, and Income" shows the relationship
between timing, goals, and sources of income.
Alice’s income will be used to meet her goals, so it’s important for her to
understand where her income will be coming from and how it will help in achieving
her goals. She needs to assess her current situation.
Figuring out where you are or assessing the current situation involves
understanding what your present situation is and the choices that it creates. There
may be many choices, but you want to identify those that will be most useful in
reaching your goals.
For now, we can assess Alice’s simple situation by identifying her assets and debts
and by listing her annual incomes and expenses. That will show if she can expect a
budget surplus or deficit, but more important, it will show how possible her goals
are and whether she is making progress toward them. Even a ballpark assessment of
the current situation can be illuminating.
Alice’s assets may be a car worth about $5,000 and a savings account with a balance
of $250. Debts include a student loan with a balance of $53,000 and a car loan with a
balance of $2,700; these are shown in Figure 1.11 "Alice’s Financial Situation".
Her annual disposable income (after-tax income or take-home pay) may be $35,720,
and annual expenses are expected to be $10,800 for rent and $14,400 for living
expenses—food, gas, entertainment, clothing, and so on. Her annual loan payments
are $2,400 for the car loan and $7,720 for the student loan, as shown in Figure 1.12
"Alice’s Income and Expenses".
Alice will have an annual budget surplus of just $400 (income = $35,720 − $35,320
[total expenses + loan repayments]). She will be achieving her short-term goal of
reducing debt, but with a small annual budget surplus, it will be difficult for her to
begin to achieve her goal of accumulating assets.
To reach that intermediate goal, she will have to increase income or decrease
expenses to create more of an annual surplus. When her car loan is paid off next
year, she hopes to buy another car, but she will have at most only $650 (250 + 400) in
savings for a down payment for the car, and that assumes she can save all her
surplus. When her student loans are paid off in about five years, she will no longer
have student loan payments, and that will increase her surplus significantly (by
$7,720 per year) and allow her to put that money toward asset accumulation.
Alice’s long-term goals also depend on her ability to accumulate productive assets,
as she wants to be able to quit working and live on the income from her assets in
retirement. Alice is making progress toward meeting her short-term goals of
reducing debt, which she must do before being able to work toward her
intermediate and long-term goals. Until she reduces her debt, which would reduce
her expenses and increase her income, she will not make progress toward her
intermediate and long-term goals.
Assessing her current situation allows Alice to see that she has to delay
accumulating assets until she can reduce expenses by reducing debt (and thus her
student loan payments). She is now reducing debt, and as she continues to do so,
her financial situation will begin to look different, and new choices will be available
to her.
Alice learned about her current situation from two simple lists: one of her assets
and debts and the other of her income and expenses. Even in this simple example it
is clear that the process of articulating the current situation can put information
into a very useful context. It can reveal the critical paths to achieving goals.
After you have identified alternatives, you evaluate each one. The obvious things to
look for and assess are its costs and benefits, but you also want to think about its
risks, where it will leave you, and how well positioned it will leave you to make the
next decision. You want to have as many choices as you can at any point in the
process, and you want your choices to be well diversified. That way, you can choose
with an understanding of how this choice will affect the next choices and the next.
The further along in the process you can think, the better you can plan.
In her current situation, Alice is reducing debt, so one choice would be to continue.
She could begin to accumulate assets sooner, and thus perhaps more of them, if she
could reduce expenses to create more of a budget surplus. Alice looks over her
expenses and decides she really can’t cut them back much. She decides that the
alternative of reducing expenses is not feasible. She could increase income,
however. She has two choices: work a second job or go to Las Vegas to play poker.
Alice could work a second, part-time job that would increase her after-tax income
but leave her more tired and with less time for other interests. The economy is in a
bit of a slump too—unemployment is up a bit—so her second job probably wouldn’t
pay much. She could go to Vegas and win big, with the cost of the trip as her only
expense. To evaluate her alternatives, Alice needs to calculate the benefits and costs
of each (Figure 1.13 "Alice’s Choices: Benefits and Costs").
Thus, she would have to increase her income and © 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
decrease her expenses. Simply continuing as she does
now would no longer be an option because the new debt
increases her expenses and creates a budget deficit. Her
only remaining alternative to increase income would be
to take the second job that she had initially rejected because of its implicit cost. She
would probably have to reduce expenses as well, an idea she initially rejected as not
even being a reasonable choice. Thus, the risk of the Vegas option is that it could
force her to “choose” alternatives that she had initially rejected as too costly.
The Vegas option becomes least desirable when its risk is included in the
calculations of its costs, especially as they compare with its benefits.
Its obvious risk is that Alice will lose wealth, but its even costlier risk is that it will
limit her future choices. Without including risk as a cost, the Vegas option looks
attractive, which is, of course, why Vegas exists. But when risk is included, and
when the decision involves thinking strategically not only about immediate
consequences but also about the choices it will preserve or eliminate, that option
can be seen in a very different light (Figure 1.16 "Alice’s Choices: Benefits and More
Costs").
You may sometimes choose an alternative with less apparent benefit than another
but also with less risk. You may sometimes choose an alternative that provides less
immediate benefit but more choices later. Risk itself is a cost, and choice a benefit,
and they should be included in your assessment.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ defining goals,
◦ assessing the current situation,
◦ identifying choices,
◦ evaluating choices,
◦ choosing.
• Choosing further involves assessing the resulting situation, redefining
goals, identifying new choices, evaluating new choices, and so on.
• Goals are shaped by current and expected circumstances, family
structure, career, health, and larger economic forces.
• Depending on the factors shaping them, goals are short-term,
intermediate, and long-term.
• Choices will allow faster or slower progress toward goals and may
digress or regress from goals; goals can be eliminated.
• You should evaluate your feasible choices by calculating the benefits,
explicit costs, implicit costs, and the strategic costs of each one.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Even after reading this book, or perhaps especially after reading this book, you may
want some help from a professional who specializes in financial planning. As with
any professional that you go to for advice, you want expertise to help make your
decisions, but in the end, you are the one who will certainly have to live with the
consequences of your decisions, and you should make your own decisions.
There are a multitude of financial advisors17 to help with financial planning, such
as accountants, investment advisors, tax advisors, estate planners, or insurance
agents. They have different kinds of training and qualifications, different
educations and backgrounds, and different approaches to financial planning. To
have a set of initials after their name, all have met educational and professional
experience requirements and have passed exams administered by professional
organizations, testing their knowledge in the field. Figure 1.17 "Professional
Classifications" provides a perspective on the industry classifications of financial
planning professionals.
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Chapter 1 Personal Financial Planning
Some advisors just give, and get paid for, advice; some © 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
are selling a product, such as a particular investment or
mutual fund or life insurance policy, and get paid when
it gets sold. Others are selling a service, such as
brokerage or mortgage servicing, and get paid when the
service is used. All may be highly ethical and well intentioned, but when choosing a
financial planning advisor, it is important to be able to distinguish among them.
Sometimes a friend or family member who knows you well and has your personal
interests in mind may be a great resource for information and advice, but perhaps
Now you know a bit about the planning process, the personal factors that affect it,
the larger economic contexts, and the business of financial advising. The next steps
in financial planning get down to details, especially how to organize your financial
information to see your current situation and how to begin to evaluate your
alternatives.
The references that follow provide information for further research on the
professionals and professional organizations mentioned in the chapter.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
1. Where do you get your financial advice? Identify all the sources. In what
circumstances might you seek a professional financial advisor?
2. View the video “Choosing a Financial Planner” at
http://videos.howstuffworks.com/marketplace/4105-choosing-a-
financial-planner-video.htm. Which advice about getting financial
advice do you find most valuable? Share your views with classmates.
Also view the MSN Money video on when people should consider getting
a financial advisor: http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-
us&brand=money&vid=6f22019c-db6e-45de-984b-
a447f52dc4db&playlist=videoByTag:tag:
money_top_investing:ns:MSNmoney_Gallery:mk:us:vs:1&from=MSNmon
ey_8ThinsYourFinanical PlannerWontTellYou&tab=s216. According to
the featured speaker, is financial planning advice for everyone? How do
you know when you need a financial planner?
Introduction
Money, says the proverb, makes money. When you have got a little, it is often easy
to get more. The great difficulty is to get that little.
- Adam Smith, The Wealth of NationsAdam Smith, The Wealth of Nations (New York:
The Modern Library, 2000), Book I, Chapter ix. Originally published in 1776.
Personal finance addresses the “great difficulty” of getting a little money. It is about
learning to manage income and wealth to satisfy desires in life or to create more
income and more wealth. It is about creating productive assets1 and about
protecting existing and expected value in those assets. In other words, personal
finance is about learning how to get what you want and how to protect what you’ve
got.
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Chapter 2 Basic Ideas of Finance
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Personal finance is the process of paying for or financing a life and a way of living.
Just as a business must be financed—its buildings, equipment, use of labor and
materials, and operating costs must be paid for—so must a person’s possessions and
living expenses. Just as a business relies on its revenues from selling goods or
services to finance its costs, so a person relies on income earned from selling labor
or capital to finance costs. You need to understand this financing process and the
terms used to describe it. In the next chapter, you’ll look at how to account for it.
Income2 is what is earned or received in a given period. There are various terms for
income because there are various ways of earning income. Income from
employment or self-employment is wages or salary. Deposit accounts, like savings
accounts, earn interest, which could also come from lending. Owning stock entitles
the shareholder to a dividend, if there is one. Owning a piece of a partnership or a
privately held corporation entitles one to a draw.
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Chapter 2 Basic Ideas of Finance
You can invest in many other kinds of assets, like © 2010 Jupiterimages
antiques, art, coins, land, or commodities such as Corporation
soybeans, live cattle, platinum, or light crude oil. The
principle is the same: investing is renting capital or
selling it for an asset that can be resold later, or that can
create future income, or both. Capital is sold in the
capital market and lent in the credit market—a specific part of the capital market
(just like the dairy section is a specific part of the supermarket). Figure 2.2 "Sources
of Income" shows the sources of income.
In the labor market, the price of labor is the wage that an employer (buyer of labor)
is willing to pay to the employee (seller of labor). For any given job, that price is
determined by many factors. The nature of the work defines the education and
3. Nearness to cash, or how easily skills required, and the price may reflect other factors as well, such as the status or
and cheaply—with low desirability of the job.
transaction costs—an asset can
be turned into cash.
In turn, the skills needed and the attractiveness of the work determine the supply
of labor for that particular job—the number of people who could and would want to
do the job. If the supply of labor is greater than the demand, if there are more
people to work at a job than are needed, then employers will have more hiring
choices. That labor market is a buyers’ market, and the buyers can hire labor at
lower prices. If there are fewer people willing and able to do a job than there are
jobs, then that labor market is a sellers’ market, and workers can sell their labor at
higher prices.
Similarly, the fewer skills required for the job, the more people there will be who
are able to do it, creating a buyers’ market. The more skills required for a job, the
fewer people there will be to do it, and the more leverage or advantage the seller
has in negotiating a price. People pursue education to make themselves more highly
skilled and therefore able to compete in a sellers’ labor market.
When you are starting your career, you are usually in a buyers’ market (unless you
have some unusual gift or talent), if only because of your lack of experience. As your
career progresses, you have more, and perhaps more varied, experience and
presumably more skills, and so can sell your labor in more of a sellers’ market. You
may change careers or jobs more than once, but you would hope to be doing so to
your advantage, that is, always to be gaining bargaining power in the labor market.
Many people love their work for many reasons other than the pay, however, and
choose it for those rewards. Labor is more than a source of income; it is also a
source of many intellectual, social, and other personal gratifications. Your labor
nevertheless is also a tradable commodity and has a market value. The personal
rewards of your work may ultimately determine your choices, but you should be
aware of the market value of those choices as you make them.
Your ability to sell labor and earn income reflects your situation in your labor
market. Earlier in your career, you can expect to earn less than you will as your
career progresses. Most people would like to reach a point where they don’t have to
sell labor at all. They hope to retire someday and pursue other hobbies or interests.
They can retire if they have alternative sources of income—if they can earn income
from savings and from selling capital.
Capital markets exist so that buyers can buy capital. Businesses always need capital
and have limited ways of raising it. Sellers and lenders (investors), on the other
hand, have many more choices of how to invest their excess cash in the capital and
credit markets, so those markets are much more like sellers’ markets. The following
are examples of ways to invest in the capital and credit markets:
• Buying stocks
• Buying government or corporate bonds
• Lending a mortgage
The market for any particular investment or asset may be a sellers’ or buyers’
market at any particular time, depending on economic conditions. For example, the
market for real estate, modern art, sports memorabilia, or vintage cars can be a
buyers’ market if there are more sellers than buyers. Typically, however, there is as
much or more demand for capital as there is supply. The more capital you have to
sell, the more ways you can sell it to more kinds of buyers, and the more those
buyers may be willing to pay. At first, however, for most people, selling labor is
their only practical source of income.
Expenses4 are costs for items or resources that are used up or consumed in the
course of daily living. Expenses recur (i.e., they happen over and over again)
because food, housing, clothing, energy, and so on are used up on a daily basis.
When income is less than expenses, you have a budget deficit5—too little cash to
provide for your wants or needs. A budget deficit is not sustainable; it is not
financially viable. The only choices are to eliminate the deficit by (1) increasing
income, (2) reducing expenses, or (3) borrowing to make up the difference.
Borrowing may seem like the easiest and quickest solution, but borrowing also
increases expenses, because it creates an additional expense: interest. Unless
income can also be increased, borrowing to cover a deficit will only increase it.
When income for a period is greater than expenses, there is a budget surplus6.
That situation is sustainable and remains financially viable. You could choose to
decrease income by, say, working less. More likely, you would use the surplus in one
of two ways: consume more or save it. If consumed, the income is gone, although
presumably you enjoyed it.
If saved, however, the income can be stored, perhaps in a piggy bank or cookie jar,
and used later. A more profitable way to save is to invest it in some way—deposit in
a bank account, lend it with interest, or trade it for an asset, such as a stock or a
bond or real estate. Those ways of saving are ways of selling your excess capital in
the capital markets to increase your wealth. The following are examples of savings:
© 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
There are two other important kinds of costs aside from expenses that affect your
financial life. Suppose you can afford a new jacket or new boots, but not both,
because your resources—the income you can use to buy clothing—are limited. If you
buy the jacket, you cannot also buy the boots. Not getting the boots is an
opportunity cost7 of buying the jacket; it is cost of sacrificing your next best
choice.
In personal finance, there is always an opportunity cost. You always want to make a
choice that will create more value than cost, and so you always want the
opportunity cost to be less than the benefit from trade. You bought the jacket
instead of the boots because you decided that having the jacket would bring more
benefit than the cost of not having the boots. You believed your benefit would be
greater than your opportunity cost.
In personal finance, opportunity costs affect not only consumption decisions but
also financing decisions, such as whether to borrow or to pay cash. Borrowing has
obvious costs, whereas paying with your own cash or savings seems costless. Using
your cash does have an opportunity cost, however. You lose whatever interest you
may have had on your savings, and you lose liquidity—that is, if you need cash for
something else, like a better choice or an emergency, you no longer have it and may
even have to borrow it at a higher cost.
When buyers and sellers make choices, they weigh opportunity costs, and
sometimes regret them, especially when the benefits from trade are disappointing.
Regret can color future choices. Sometimes regret can keep us from recognizing
sunk costs8.
Sunk costs are costs that have already been spent; that is, whatever resources you
traded are gone, and there is no way to recover them. Decisions, by definition, can
be made only about the future, not about the past. A trade, when it’s over, is over
and done, so recognizing that sunk costs are truly sunk can help you make better
decisions.
7. The cost of sacrificing the next For example, the money you spent on your jacket is a sunk cost. If it snows next
best choice because of the
choice made; the value of the week and you decide you really do need boots, too, that money is gone, and you
next best choice, which is cannot use it to buy boots. If you really want the boots, you will have to find
forgone once a choice is made. another way to pay for them.
8. Costs that have been incurred
in past transactions and cannot
be recovered.
Unlike a price tag, opportunity cost is not obvious. You tend to focus on what you
are getting in the trade, not on what you are not getting. This tendency is a cheerful
aspect of human nature, but it can be a weakness in the kind of strategic decision
making that is so essential in financial planning. Human nature also may make you
focus too much on sunk costs, but all the relish or regret in the world cannot
change past decisions. Learning to recognize sunk costs is important in making
good financial decisions.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
1. Where does your income come from, and where does it go? Analyze your
inflows of income from all sources and outgoes of income through
expenditures in a month, quarter, or year. After analyzing your numbers
and converting them to percentages, show your results in two figures,
using proportions of a dollar bill to show where your income comes
from and proportions of another dollar bill to show how you spend your
income. How would you like your income to change? How would you like
your distribution of expenses to change? Use your investigation to
develop a rough personal budget.
2. Examine your budget and distinguish between wants and needs. How do
you define a financial need? What are your fixed expenses, or costs you
must pay regularly each week, month, or year? Which of your budget
categories must you provide for first before satisfying others? To what
extent is each of your expenses discretionary—under your control in
terms of spending more or less for that item or resource? Which of your
expenses could you reduce if you had to or wanted to for any reason?
3. If you had a budget deficit, what could you do about it? What would be
the best solution for the long term? If you had a budget surplus, what
could you do about it? What would be your best choice, and why?
4. You need a jacket, boots, and gloves, but the jacket you want will use up
all the money you have available for outerwear. What is your
opportunity cost if you buy the jacket? What is your sunk cost if you buy
the jacket? How could you modify your consumption to reduce
opportunity cost? If you buy the jacket but find that you need the boots
and gloves, how could you modify your budget to compensate for your
sunk cost?
2.2 Assets
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
As defined earlier in this chapter, an asset is any item with economic value that can
be converted to cash. Assets are resources that can be used to create income or
reduce expenses and to store value. The following are examples of tangible
(material) assets:
• Car
• Savings account
• Wind-up toy collection
• Money market account
• Shares of stock
• Forty acres of farmland
• Home
When you sell excess capital in the capital markets in exchange for an asset, it is a
way of storing wealth, and hopefully of generating income as well. The asset is your
investment—a use of your liquidity. Some assets are more liquid than others. For
example, you can probably sell your car more quickly than you can sell your house.
As an investor, you assume that when you want your liquidity back, you can sell the
asset. This assumes that it has some liquidity and market value (some use and value
to someone else) and that it trades in a reasonably efficient market. Otherwise, the
asset is not an investment, but merely a possession, which may bring great
happiness but will not serve as a store of wealth.
Assets may be used to store wealth, create income, and reduce future expenses.
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Chapter 2 Basic Ideas of Finance
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Corporation
The better investment asset is the one that increases in value—creates a capital
gain—during the time you are storing it.
Some assets not only store wealth but also create income. An investment in an
apartment house stores wealth and creates rental income, for example. An
9. Wealth created when an asset
is sold for more than the
investment in a share of stock stores wealth and also perhaps creates dividend
original investment. income. A deposit in a savings account stores wealth and creates interest income.
2.2 Assets 53
Chapter 2 Basic Ideas of Finance
Some investors care more about increasing asset value than about income. For
example, an investment in a share of corporate stock may produce a dividend,
which is a share of the corporation’s profit, or the company may keep all its profit
rather than pay dividends to shareholders. Reinvesting that profit in the company
may help the company to increase in value. If the company increases in value, the
stock increases in value, increasing investors’ wealth. Further, increases in wealth
through capital gains are taxed differently than income, making capital gains more
valuable than an increase in income for some investors.
On the other hand, other investors care more about receiving income from their
investments. For example, retirees who no longer have employment income may be
relying on investments to provide income for living expenses. Being older and
having a shorter horizon, retirees may be less concerned with growing wealth than
with creating income.
Some assets are used to reduce living expenses. Purchasing an asset and using it
may be cheaper than arranging for an alternative. For example, buying a car to
drive to work may be cheaper, in the long run, than renting one or using public
transportation. The car typically will not increase in value, so it cannot be expected
to be a store of wealth; its only role is to reduce future expenses.
Sometimes an asset may be expected to both store wealth and reduce future
expenses. For example, buying a house to live in may be cheaper, in the long run,
than renting one. In addition, real estate may appreciate in value, allowing you to
realize a gain when you sell the asset. In this case, the house has effectively stored
wealth. Appreciation in value depends on the real estate market and demand for
housing when the asset is sold, however, so you cannot count on it. Still, a house
usually can reduce living expenses and be a potential store of wealth.
Figure 2.8 "Assets and the Roles of Assets" shows the roles of assets in reducing
expenses, increasing income, and storing wealth.
2.2 Assets 54
Chapter 2 Basic Ideas of Finance
The choice of investment asset, then, depends on your belief in its ability to store
and increase wealth, create income, or reduce expenses. Ideally, your assets will
store and increase wealth while increasing income or reducing expenses. Otherwise,
acquiring the asset will not be a productive use of liquidity. Also, in that case the
opportunity cost will be greater than the benefit from the investment, since there
are many assets to choose from.
2.2 Assets 55
Chapter 2 Basic Ideas of Finance
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Assets are items with economic value that can be converted to cash. You
use excess liquidity or surplus cash to buy an asset and store wealth
until you resell the asset.
• An asset can create income, reduce expenses, and store wealth.
• To have value as an investment, an asset must either store wealth or
create income (reduce expenses); ideally, an asset can do both.
• Whatever the type of asset you choose, investing in assets or selling
capital can be more profitable than selling labor.
• Selling an asset can result in a capital gain or capital loss.
• Selling capital means trading in the capital markets, which is a sellers’
market. You can do this only if you have a budget surplus, or an excess
of income over expenses.
EXERCISES
2.2 Assets 56
Chapter 2 Basic Ideas of Finance
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Buying capital, that is, borrowing enables you to invest without first owning capital.
By using other people’s money to finance the investment, you get to use an asset
before actually owning it, free and clear, assuming you can repay out of future
earnings.
Borrowing capital has costs, however, so the asset will have to increase wealth,
increase earnings, or decrease expenses enough to compensate for its costs. In
other words, the asset will have to be more productive to earn enough to cover its
financing costs—the cost of buying or borrowing capital to buy the asset.
Buying capital gives you equity, borrowing capital gives you debt, and both kinds of
financing have costs and benefits. When you buy or borrow liquidity or cash, you
become a buyer in the capital market.
You can buy capital from other investors in exchange for an ownership share or
equity11, which represents your claim on any future gains or future income. If the
asset is productive in storing wealth, generating income, or reducing expenses, the
equity holder or shareholder or owner enjoys that benefit in proportion to the
share of the asset owned. If the asset actually loses value, the owner bears a portion
of the loss in proportion to the share of the asset owned. The cost of equity12 is in
11. An ownership share in an asset, having to share the benefits from the investment.
entitling the holder to a share
of the future gain (or loss) in
asset value and of any future For example, in 2004 Google, a company that produced a very successful Internet
income (or loss) created. search engine, decided to buy capital by selling shares of the company (shares of
12. The cost of having to share the stock or equity securities) in exchange for cash. Google sold over 19 million shares
benefits—capital gains or for a total of $1.67 billion. Those who bought the shares were then owners or
income (dividends)—from the shareholders of Google, Inc. Each shareholder has equity in Google, and as long as
investment.
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Chapter 2 Basic Ideas of Finance
they own the shares they will share in the profits and value of Google, Inc. The
original founders and owners of Google, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, have since had
to share their company’s gains (or income) or losses with all those shareholders. In
this case, the cost of equity is the minimum rate of return Google must offer its
shareholders to compensate them for waiting for their returns and for bearing
some risk13 that the company might not do as well in the future.
Borrowing is renting someone else’s money for a period of time, and the result is
debt14. During that period of time, rent or interest15 must be paid, which is a cost
of debt16. When that period of time expires, all the capital (the principal17 amount
borrowed) must be given back. The investment’s earnings must be enough to cover
the interest, and its growth in value must be enough to return the principal. Thus,
debt is a liability, an obligation for which the borrower is liable.
In contrast, the cost of equity may need to be paid only if there is an increase in
income or wealth, and even then can be deferred. So, from the buyer’s point of
view, purchasing liquidity by borrowing (debt) has a more immediate effect on
income and expenses. Interest must be added as an expense, and repayment must
be anticipated.
Figure 2.9 "Sources of Capital" shows the implications of equity and debt as the
sources of capital.
Debt is a way to make an investment that could not otherwise be made, to buy an
asset (e.g., house, car, corporate stock) that you couldn’t buy without borrowing. If
that asset is expected to provide enough benefit (i.e., increase value or create
income or reduce expense) to compensate for its additional costs, then the debt is
worth it. However, if debt creates additional expense without enough additional
benefit, then it is not worth it. The trouble is, while the costs are usually known up
front, the benefits are not. That adds a dimension of risk to debt, which is another
factor in assessing whether it’s desirable.
The alternative would be to rent a living space. If the rent on a comparable home
were more than the mortgage interest (which it often is, because a landlord usually
wants the rent to cover the mortgage and create a profit), it would make more
sense, if possible, to borrow and buy a home and be able to live in it. And, extra
bedrooms and bathrooms and a yard are valuable while children are young and live
at home. If you wait until you have saved enough to buy a home, you may be much
older, and your children may be off on their own.
The alternative would be to work and save and then get an education, but you
would be earning income less efficiently until you completed your education, and
then you would have less time to earn your return. Waiting decreases the value of
your education, that is, its usefulness, over your lifetime.
In these examples (Figure 2.11 "Debt: Uses, Value, and Cost"), debt creates a cost,
but it reduces expenses or increases income to offset that cost. Debt allows this to
happen sooner than it otherwise could, which allows you to realize the maximum
benefit for the investment. In such cases, debt is “worth” it.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Personal finance is not just about getting what you want; it is also about protecting
what you have. Since the way to accumulate assets is to create surplus capital by
having an income larger than expenses, and since you rely on income to provide for
living expenses, you also need to think about protecting your income. One way to
do so is through diversification18, or spreading the risk.
You already know not to put all your eggs in one basket, because if something
happens to that basket, all the eggs are gone. If the eggs are in many baskets, on the
other hand, the loss of any one basket would mean the loss of just a fraction of the
eggs. The more baskets, the smaller your proportional loss would be. Then if you
put many different baskets in many different places, your eggs are diversified even
more effectively, because all the baskets aren’t exposed to the same environmental
or systematic risks.
If you sell your labor to only one buyer, then you are exposed to more risk than if
you can generate income by selling your labor to more than one buyer. You have
only so much time you can devote to working, however. Having more than one
employer could be exhausting and perhaps impossible. Selling your labor to more
than one buyer also means that you are still dependent on the labor market, which
could suffer from an economic cycle such as a recession affecting many buyers
(employers).
18. The strategy of reducing risk
by spreading income and
investments among a number Mark, for example, works as a school counselor, tutors on the side, paints houses in
of different kinds, sources, and the summers, and buys and sells sports memorabilia on the Internet. If he got laid
locations.
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Chapter 2 Basic Ideas of Finance
off from his counseling job, he would lose his paycheck but still be able to create
income by tutoring, painting, and trading memorabilia.
Similarly, if you sell your capital to only one buyer—invest in only one asset—then
you are exposed to more risk than if you generate income by investing in a variety
of assets. Diversifying investments means you are dependent on trade in the capital
markets, however, which likewise could suffer from unfavorable economic
conditions.
Mark has a checking account, an online money market account, and a balanced
portfolio of stocks. If his stock portfolio lost value, he would still have the value in
his money market account.
A better way to diversify sources of income is to sell both labor and capital. Then
you are trading in different markets, and are not totally exposed to risks in either
one. In Mark’s case, if all his incomes dried up, he would still have his investments,
and if all his investments lost value, he would still have his paycheck and other
incomes. To diversify to that extent, you need surplus capital to trade. This brings
us full circle to Adam Smith, quoted at the beginning of this chapter, who said,
essentially, “It takes money to make money.”
KEY TAKEAWAY
Diversifying sources of income in both the labor market and the capital
markets is the best hedge against risks in any one market.
EXERCISE
Introduction
Man is the measure of all things; of that which is, that it is; of that which is not, that
it is not.
Understanding the current situation is not just a matter of measuring it, but also of
putting it in perspective and in context, relative to your own past performance and
future goals, and relative to the realities in the economic world around you. Tools
for understanding your current situation are your accounting and financial
statements.
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Chapter 3 Financial Statements
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Clay tablets interested Sumerian traders because the records gave them a way to
see their financial situation and to use that insight to measure progress and plan for
the future. The method of accounting universally used in business today is known
as accrual accounting1, in which events are accounted for even if cash does not
change hands. That is, transactions are recorded at the time they occur rather than
when payment is actually made or received. Anticipated or preceding payments and
receipts (cash flows) are recorded as accrued or deferred. Accrual accounting is the
opposite of cash accounting2, in which transactions are recognized only when cash
is exchanged.
1. A method of accounting in
which economic consequences
rather than cash flow
consequences define
transactions.
2. A method of accounting in
which cash flow consequences
rather than economic
consequences define
transactions. Events are
defined as cash transactions
and recorded only when cash
changes hands.
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Chapter 3 Financial Statements
Financial decisions result in transactions, actual trades that buy or sell, invest or
borrow. In the market economy, something is given up in order to get something,
so each trade involves at least one thing given up and one thing gotten—two things
flowing in at least two directions. The process of accounting records these
transactions and records what has been gotten and what has been given up to get it,
what flows in and what flows out.
this information is recorded: the income statement, cash flow statement, and
balance sheet.
Income Statement
The income statement3 summarizes incomes and expenses for a period of time. In
business, income is the value of whatever is sold, expenses are the costs of earning
that income, and the difference is profit. In personal finance, income is what is
earned as wages or salary and as interest or dividends, and expenses are the costs of
things consumed in the course of daily living: the costs of sustaining you while you
earn income. Thus, the income statement is a measure of what you have earned and
what your cost of living was while earning it. The difference is personal profit,
which, if accumulated as investment, becomes your wealth.
The income statement clearly shows the relative size of your income and expenses.
If income is greater than expenses, there is a surplus, and that surplus can be used
to save or to spend more (and create more expenses). If income is less than
expenses, then there is a deficit that must be addressed. If the deficit continues, it
creates debts—unpaid bills—that must eventually be paid. Over the long term, a
deficit is not a viable scenario.
The income statement can be useful for its level of detail too. You can see which of
your expenses consumes the greatest portion of your income or which expense has
the greatest or least effect on your bottom line. If you want to reduce expenses, you
can see which would have the greatest impact or would free up more income if you
reduced it. If you want to increase income, you can see how much more that would
buy you in terms of your expenses (Figure 3.3 "Alice’s Situation (in Dollars)"). For
example, consider Alice’s situation per year.
3. A summary statement of She also had car payments of $2,400 and student loan payments of $7,720. Each loan
income and expenses for a payment actually covers the interest expense and partial repayment of the loan.
period; an income statement
shows the difference between The interest is an expense representing the cost of borrowing, and thus of having,
them or the net profit (net the car and the education. The repayment of the loan is not an expense, however,
loss) for the period.
but is just giving back something that was borrowed. In this case, the loan payments
break down as follows (Figure 3.4 "Alice’s Loan Payments (Annually)").
Breaking down Alice’s living expenses in more detail and adding in her interest
expenses, Alice’s income statement would look like this (Figure 3.5 "Alice’s Income
Statement for the Year 2009").
Alice’s disposable income4, or income to meet expenses after taxes have been
accounted for, is $35,720. Alice’s net ncome, or net earnings or personal profit, is
the remaining income after all other expenses have been deducted, in this case
$6,040.
Now Alice has a much clearer view of what’s going on in her financial life. She can
see, for example, that living expenses take the biggest bite out of her income and
that rent is the biggest single expense. If she wanted to decrease expenses, finding a
place to live with a cheaper rent will make the most impact on her bottom line. Or
perhaps it would make more sense to make many small changes rather than one
large change, to cut back on several other expenses. She could begin by cutting back
on the expense items that she feels are least necessary or that she could most easily
live without. Perhaps she could do with less entertainment or clothing or travel, for
example. Whatever choices she subsequently made would be reflected in her
income statement. The value of the income statement is in presenting income and
expenses in detail for a particular period of time.
The cash flow statement5 shows how much cash came in and where it came from,
and how much cash went out and where it went over a period of time. This differs
from the income statement because it may include cash flows that are not from
income and expenses. Examples of such cash flows would be receiving repayment of
money that you loaned, repaying money that you borrowed, or using money in
exchanges such as buying or selling an asset.
The cash flow statement is important because it can show how well you do at
creating liquidity, as well as your net income. Liquidity is nearness to cash, and
liquidity has value. An excess of liquidity can be sold or lent, creating additional
income. A lack of liquidity must be addressed by buying it or borrowing, creating
additional expense.
Looking at Alice’s situation, she has two loan repayments that are not expenses and
so are not included on her income statement. These payments reduce her liquidity,
4. Income available for expenses however, making it harder for her to create excess cash. Her cash flow statement
after tax expense has been
deducted; gross income less looks like this (Figure 3.6 "Alice’s Cash Flow Statement for the Year 2009").
income tax.
Figure 3.6 Alice’s Cash Flow Statement for the Year 2009
Note: On a cash flow statement, negative and positive numbers indicate direction of flow. A negative number is cash
flowing out, and a positive number is cash flowing in. Conventionally, negative numbers are in parentheses.
As with the income statement, the cash flow statement is more useful if there are
subtotals for the different kinds of cash flows, as defined by their sources and uses.
The cash flows from income and expenses are operating cash flows6, or cash flows
that are a consequence of earning income or paying for the costs of earning income.
The loan repayments are cash flows from financing7 assets or investments that
will increase income. In this case, cash flows from financing include repayments on
the car and the education. Although Alice doesn’t have any in this example, there
could also be cash flows from investing8, from buying or selling assets. Free cash
6. Recurring cash flows that flow9 is the cash available to make investments or financing decisions after taking
result from income and care of operations and debt obligations. It is calculated as cash flow from operations
expense events. less debt repayments.
7. Nonrecurring cash flows that
result from the borrowing or
repayment of debt, or from the The most significant difference between the three categories of cash
issue or repurchase of equity. flows—operating, investing, or financing—is whether or not the cash flows may be
expected to recur regularly. Operating cash flows recur regularly; they are the cash
8. Nonrecurring cash flows that
result from buying or selling flows that result from income and expenses or consumption and therefore can be
assets. expected to occur in every year. Operating cash flows may be different amounts in
different periods, but they will happen in every period. Investing and financing
9. Income remaining after the
deduction of living expenses cash flows, on the other hand, may or may not recur and often are unusual events.
and debt obligations that is Typically, for example, you would not borrow or lend or buy or sell assets in every
available for capital
expenditures or investment.
year. Here is how Alice’s cash flows would be classified (Figure 3.7 "Alice’s Cash
Flow Statement for the Year 2009").
Figure 3.7 Alice’s Cash Flow Statement for the Year 2009
This cash flow statement more clearly shows how liquidity is created and where
liquidity could be increased. If Alice wanted to create more liquidity, it is obvious
that eliminating those loan payments would be a big help: without them, her net
cash flow would increase by more than 3,900 percent.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is a list of assets, debts or liabilities, and equity or net worth, with
10. A list of all assets, liabilities, their values. In business, assets are resources that can be used to create income,
and equity or net worth, at a
given point in time, providing while debt and equity are the capital that financed those assets. Thus, the value of
a concise picture of financial the assets must equal the value of the debt and the equity. In other words, the value
condition at that time.
of the business’s resources must equal the value of the capital it borrowed or
bought in order to get those resources.
In personal finance, assets are also things that can be sold to create liquidity.
Liquidity is needed to satisfy or repay debts. Because your assets are what you use
to satisfy your debts when they become due, the assets’ value should be greater
than the value of your debts. That is, you should have more to work with to meet
your obligations than you owe.
The difference between what you have and what you owe is your net worth12.
Literally, net worth is the share that you own of everything that you have. It is the
value of what you have net of (less) what you owe to others. Whatever asset value is
left over after you meet your debt obligations is your own worth. It is the value of
what you have that you can claim free and clear.
Your net worth is really your equity or financial ownership in your own life. Here,
too, the personal balance sheet must balance, because if
Alice’s balance sheet presents her with a much clearer picture of her financial
situation, but also with a dismaying prospect: she seems to have negative net worth.
Negative net worth13 results whenever the value of debts or liabilities is actually
greater than the assets’ value. If
Negative net worth implies that the assets don’t have enough value to satisfy the
debts. Since debts are obligations, this would cause some concern.
selling all its assets and giving whatever it can to its creditors14 or lenders, who will
have to settle for less than what they are owed. More usually, the business
continues to operate in bankruptcy, if possible, and must still repay its creditors,
although perhaps under somewhat easier terms. Creditors (and the laws) allow
these terms because creditors would rather get paid in full later than get paid less
now or not at all.
In personal finance, personal bankruptcy15 may occur when debts are greater than
the value of assets. But because creditors would rather be paid eventually than
never, the bankrupt is usually allowed to continue to earn income in the hopes of
repaying the debt later or with easier terms. Often, the bankrupt is forced to
liquidate (sell) some or all of its assets.
her balance sheet, then it would look more like this (Figure 3.10 "Alice’s Balance
Sheet (revised), December 31, 2009"):
This looks much better, but it’s not sound accounting practice to include an
asset—and its value—on the balance sheet before it really exists. After all, education
generally pays off, but until it does, it hasn’t yet and there is a chance, however
slim, that it won’t for Alice. A balance sheet is a snapshot of one’s financial situation
at one particular time. At this particular time, Alice’s education has value, but its
amount is unknown.
It is easy to see, however, that the only thing that creates negative net worth for
Alice is her student loan. The student loan causes her liabilities to be greater than
her assets—and if that were paid off, her net worth would be positive. Given that
Alice is just starting her adult earning years, her situation seems quite reasonable.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
1. Prepare a personal income statement for the past year, using the same
format as Alice’s income statement in this chapter. Include all relevant
categories of income and expenses. What does your income statement
tell you about your current financial situation? For example, where does
your income come from, and where does it go? Do you have a surplus of
income over expenses? If, so what are you doing with the surplus? Do
you have a deficit? What can you do about that? Which of your expenses
has the greatest effect on your bottom line? What is the biggest
expense? Which expenses would be easiest to reduce or eliminate? How
else could you reduce expenses? Realistically, how could you increase
your income? How would you like your income statement for the next
year to look?
2. Using the format for Alice’s cash flow statement, prepare your cash flow
statement for the same one-year period. Include your cash flows from all
sources in addition to your operating cash flows—the income and
expenses that appear on your income statement. What, if any, were the
cash flows from financing and the cash flows from investing? Which of
your cash flows are recurring, and which are nonrecurring? What does
your cash flow statement tell you about your current financial situation?
If you wanted to increase your liquidity, what would you try to change
about your cash flows?
3. Now prepare a balance sheet, again based on Alice’s form. List all your
assets, liabilities and debts, and your equity from all sources. What does
the balance sheet show about your financial situation at this moment in
time? What is your net worth? Do you have positive or negative net
worth at this time, and what does that mean? To increase your liquidity,
how would your balance sheet need to change? What would be the
relationship between your cash flow statement and your budget?
4. Read the CNNMoney.com article “How Much Are You Worth?” (October
3, 2003, by Les Christie, at http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/30/pf/
millionaire/networth/), and use the data and calculator to determine
your net worth. How does you net worth compare to that of other
Americans in your age and income brackets?
5. The Small Business Administration’s Personal Financial Statement
combines features of an income statement and a balance sheet. You
would fill out a similar form if you were applying for a personal or
business loan at bank or mortgage lender. Go to http://www.sba.gov/
sbaforms/sba413.pdf and compare and contrast the SBA form with the
statements you have already created for this chapter’s exercises.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Financial statements are valuable summaries of financial activities because they can
organize information and make it easier and clearer to see and therefore to
understand. Each one—the income statement, cash flow statement, and balance
sheet—conveys a different aspect of the financial picture; put together, the picture
is pretty complete. The three provide a summary of earning and expenses, of cash
flows, and of assets and debts.
Since the three statements offer three different kinds of information, sometimes it
is useful to look at each in the context of the others, and to look at specific items in
the larger context. This is the purpose of financial statement analysis: creating
comparisons and contexts to gain a better understanding of the financial picture.
Common-Size Statements
On the cash flow statement, each cash flow can be listed as a percentage of total
positive cash flows, again showing the relative significance and diversification of
the sources of cash, and the relative size of the burden of each use of cash.
16. Financial statements where
each item’s value is listed as a
percentage of or in relation to
another value.
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Chapter 3 Financial Statements
On the balance sheet, each item is listed as a percentage of total assets, showing the
relative significance and diversification of assets, and highlighting the use of debt
as financing for the assets.
Figure 3.12 Alice’s Common-Size Income Statement for the Year 2009
Seeing the common-size statement as a pie chart makes the relative size of the
slices even clearer (Figure 3.13 "Pie Chart of Alice’s Common-Size Income Statement
for the Year 2009").
Figure 3.13 Pie Chart of Alice’s Common-Size Income Statement for the Year 2009
The biggest discretionary use of Alice’s wages is her rent expense, followed by food,
car expenses, and entertainment. Her income tax expense is a big use of her wages,
but it is unavoidable or nondiscretionary. As Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell
Holmes, Jr., said, “Taxes are what we pay for a civilized society.”U.S. Department of
the Treasury, http://www.treas.gov/education/faq/taxes/taxes-society.shtml
(accessed January 19, 2009). Ranking expenses by size offers interesting insight into
lifestyle choices. It is also valuable in framing financial decisions, pointing out
which expenses have the largest impact on income and thus on the resources for
making financial decisions. If Alice wanted more discretionary income to make
more or different choices, she can easily see that reducing rent expense would have
the most impact on freeing up some of her wages for another use.
Looking at Alice’s negative cash flows as percentages of her positive cash flow (on
the cash flow statement), or the uses of cash as percentages of the sources of cash,
creates the common-size cash flows18. As with the income statement, this gives
Alice a clearer and more immediate view of the largest uses of her cash (Figure 3.14
"Alice’s Common-Size Cash Flow Statement for the Year 2009" and Figure 3.15 "Pie
Chart of Alice’s Common-Size Cash Flow Statement").
Figure 3.14 Alice’s Common-Size Cash Flow Statement for the Year 2009
Again, rent is the biggest discretionary use of cash for living expenses, but debts
demand the most significant portion of cash flows. Repayments and interest
together are 30 percent of Alice’s cash—as much as she pays for rent and food.
Eliminating those debt payments would create substantial liquidity for Alice.
On the balance sheet, looking at each item as a percentage of total assets allows for
measuring how much of the assets’ value is obligated to cover each debt, or how
much of the assets’ value is claimed by each debt (Figure 3.16 "Alice’s Common-Size
Balance Sheet, December 31, 2009").
Common-size statements allow you to look at the size of each item relative to a
common denominator: total income on the income statement, total positive cash
flow on the cash flow statement, or total assets on the balance sheet. The relative
size of the items helps you spot anything that seems disproportionately large or
small. The common-size analysis is also useful for comparing the diversification of
items on the financial statement—the diversification of incomes on the income
statement, cash flows on the cash flow statement, and assets and liabilities on the
balance sheet. Diversification reduces risk, so you want to diversify the sources of
income and assets you can use to create value (Figure 3.17 "Pie Chart of Alice’s
Common-Size Balance Sheet: The Assets").
Figure 3.17 Pie Chart of Alice’s Common-Size Balance Sheet: The Assets
For example, Alice has only two assets, and one—her car—provides 95 percent of
her assets’ value. If something happened to her car, her assets would lose 95
percent of their value. Her asset value would be less exposed to risk if she had asset
value from other assets to diversify the value invested in her car.
Likewise, both her income and her positive cash flows come from only one source,
her paycheck. Because her positive net earnings and positive net cash flows depend
on this one source, she is exposed to risk, which she could decrease by diversifying
her sources of income. She could diversify by adding earned income—taking on a
second job, for example—or by creating investment income. In order to create
investment income, however, she needs to have a surplus of liquidity, or cash, to
invest. Alice has run head first into Adam Smith’s “great difficulty”Adam Smith, The
Wealth of Nations (New York: The Modern Library, 2000), Book I, Chapter ix. (that it
takes some money to make money; see Chapter 2 "Basic Ideas of Finance").
Common-size statements put the details of the financial statements in clear relief
relative to a common factor for each statement, but each financial statement is also
For example, what happens in the income statement and cash flow statements is
reflected on the balance sheet because the earnings and expenses and the other
cash flows affect the asset values, and the values of debts, and thus the net worth.
Cash may be used to purchase assets, so a negative cash flow may increase assets.
Cash may be used to pay off debt, so a negative cash flow may decrease liabilities.
Cash may be received when an asset is sold, so a decrease to assets may create
positive cash flow. Cash may be received when money is borrowed, so an increase in
liabilities may create a positive cash flow.
There are many other possible scenarios and transactions, but you can begin to see
that the balance sheet at the end of a period is changed from what it was at the
beginning of the period by what happens during the period, and what happens
during the period is shown on the income statement and the cash flow statement.
So, as shown in the figure, the income statement and cash flow information, related
to each other, also relate the balance sheet at the end of the period to the balance
sheet at the beginning of the period (Figure 3.18 "Relationships Among Financial
Statements").
Ratio Analysis
Creating ratios is another way to see the numbers in relation to each other. Any
ratio shows the relative size of the two items compared, just as a fraction compares
the numerator to the denominator or a percentage compares a part to the whole.
The percentages on the common-size statements are ratios, although they only
compare items within a financial statement. Ratio analysis is used to make
comparisons across statements. For example, you can see how much debt you have
just by looking at your total liabilities, but how can you tell if you can afford the
debt you have? That depends on the income you have to meet your interest and
repayment obligations, or the assets you could use (sell) to meet those obligations.
Ratio analysis20 can give you the answer.
The financial ratios21 you use depend on the perspective you need or the
question(s) you need answered. Some of the more common ratios (and questions)
are presented in the following chart (Figure 3.19 "Common Personal Financial
Ratios").
These ratios all get “better” or show improvement as they get bigger, with two
exceptions: debt to assets and total debt. Those two ratios measure levels of debt,
and the smaller the ratio, the less the debt. Ideally, the two debt ratios would be less
than one. If your debt-to-assets ratio is greater than one, then debt is greater than
assets, and you are bankrupt. If the total debt ratio is greater than one, then debt is
greater than net worth, and you “own” less of your assets’ value than your creditors
do.
Some ratios will naturally be less than one, but the bigger they are, the better. For
example, net income margin will always be less than one because net income will
always be less than total income (net income = total income − expenses). The larger
that ratio is and the fewer expenses that are taken away from the total income, the
better.
Some ratios should be greater than one, and the bigger they are, the better. For
example, the interest coverage ratio should be greater than one, because you
should have more income to cover interest expenses than you have interest
expenses, and the more you have, the better. Figure 3.20 "Results of Ratio Analysis"
suggests what to look for in the results of your ratio analyses.
While you may have a pretty good “feel” for your situation just by paying the bills
and living your life, it so often helps to have the numbers in front of you. Here is
Alice’s ratio analysis for 2009 (Figure 3.21 "Alice’s Ratio Analysis, 2009").
Alice is earning well. Her income is larger than her assets. She is able to live
efficiently. Her net income is a healthy 13.53 percent of her total income (net
income margin), which means that her expenses are only 86.47 percent of it, but
her cash flows are much less (cash flow to income), meaning that a significant
portion of earnings is used up in making investments or, in Alice’s case, debt
repayments. In fact, her debt repayments don’t leave her with much free cash flow;
that is, cash flow not used up on living expenses or debts.
Looking at the ratios, it is even more apparent how much—and how subtle—a
burden Alice’s debt is. In addition to giving her negative net worth, it keeps her
from increasing her assets and creating positive net worth—and potentially more
income—by obligating her to use up her cash flows. Debt repayment keeps her from
being able to invest.
Currently, Alice can afford the interest and the repayments. Her debt does not keep
her from living her life, but it does limit her choices, which in turn restricts her
decisions and future possibilities.
Another useful way to compare financial statements is to look at how the situation
has changed over time. Comparisons over time provide insights into the effects of
past financial decisions and changes in circumstance. That insight can guide you in
making future financial decisions, particularly in foreseeing the potential costs or
benefits of a choice. Looking backward can be very helpful in looking forward.
Fast-forward ten years: Alice is now in her early thirties. Her career has progressed,
and her income has grown. She has paid off her student loan and has begun to save
for retirement and perhaps a down payment on a house.
A comparison of Alice’s financial statements shows the change over the decade,
both in absolute dollar amounts and as a percentage (see Figure 3.22 "Alice’s
Income Statements: Comparison Over Time", Figure 3.23 "Alice’s Cash Flow
Statements: Comparison Over Time", and Figure 3.24 "Alice’s Balance Sheets:
Comparison Over Time"). For the sake of simplicity, this example assumes that
neither inflation nor deflation have significantly affected currency values during
this period.
Starting with the income statement, Alice’s income has increased. Her income tax
withholding and deductions have also increased, but she still has higher disposable
income (take-home pay). Many of her living expenses have remained consistent;
rent and entertainment have increased. Interest expense on her car loan has
increased, but since she has paid off her student loan, that interest expense has
been eliminated, so her total interest expense has decreased. Overall, her net
income, or personal profit, what she clears after covering her living expenses, has
almost doubled.
Her cash flows have also improved. Operating cash flows, like net income, have
almost doubled—due primarily to eliminating the student loan interest payment.
The improved cash flow allowed her to make a down payment on a new car, invest
in her 401(k), make the payments on her car loan, and still increase her net cash
flow by a factor of ten.
Alice’s balance sheet is most telling about the changes in her life, especially her now
positive net worth. She has more assets. She has begun saving for retirement and
has more liquidity, distributed in her checking, savings, and money market
accounts. Since she has less debt, having paid off her student loan, she now has
positive net worth.
Figure 3.25 Comparing Alice’s Common-Size Statements for 2009 and 2019: Income Statements
Figure 3.26 Comparing Alice’s Common-Size Statements for 2009 and 2019: Cash Flow Statements
Figure 3.27 Comparing Alice’s Common-Size Statements for 2009 and 2019: Balance Sheets
Although income taxes and rent have increased as a percentage of income, living
expenses have declined, showing real progress for Alice in raising her standard of
living: it now costs her less of her income to sustain herself. Interest expense has
decreased substantially as a portion of income, resulting in a net income or
personal profit that is not only larger, but is larger relative to income. More of her
income is profit, left for other discretionary uses.
The change in operating cash flows confirms this. Although her investing activities
now represent a significant use of cash, her need to use cash in financing
activities—debt repayment—is so much less that her net cash flow has increased
substantially. The cash that used to have to go toward supporting debt obligations
now goes toward building an asset base, some of which (the 401(k)) may provide
income in the future.
Changes in the balance sheet show a much more diversified and therefore much less
risky asset base. Although almost half of Alice’s assets are restricted for a specific
purpose, such as her 401(k) and Individual Retirement Account (IRA) accounts, she
still has significantly more liquidity and more liquid assets. Debt has fallen from ten
times the assets’ value to one-tenth of it, creating some ownership for Alice.
Finally, Alice can compare her ratios over time (Figure 3.28 "Ratio Analysis
Comparison").
Most immediately, her net worth is now positive, and so are the return-on-net-
worth and the total debt ratios. As her debt has become less significant, her ability
to afford it has improved (to pay for its interest and repayment). Both her interest
coverage and free cash flow ratios show large increases. Since her net income
margin (and income) has grown, the only reason her return-on-asset ratio has
decreased is because her assets have grown even faster than her income.
By analyzing over time, you can spot trends that may be happening too slowly or
too subtly for you to notice in daily living, but which may become significant over
time. You would want to keep a closer eye on your finances than Alice does,
however, and review your situation at least every year.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Many software products are available to help you organize your financial
information to be more useful in making financial decisions. They are designed to
make the record-keeping aspects of personal finance—the collection, classification,
and sorting of financial data—as easy as possible. The programs also are designed to
produce summary reports (e.g., income statements, cash flow statements, and
balance sheets) as well as many calculations that may be useful for various aspects
of financial planning. For example, financial planning software exists for managing
education and retirement savings, debt and mortgage repayment, and income and
expense budgeting.
Most programs have designed their data input to look like a checkbook, which is
what most people use to keep personal financial records. This type of user interface
is intended to be recognizable and familiar, similar to the manual record keeping
that you already do.
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Chapter 3 Financial Statements
Most will provide separate reports on activities that have some tax consequence,
since users always need to be aware of tax obligations and the tax consequences of
financial decisions. Some programs, especially those produced by companies that
also sell tax software, allow you to export data from your financial software to your
tax program, which makes tax preparation—or at least tax record keeping—easier.
In some programs, you need to know which activities are taxable and flag them as
such. Some programs recognize that information already, while others may still
prompt you for tax information.
All programs allow you to play “what if”: a marvelous feature of computing power
and the virtual world in general and certainly helpful when it comes to making
financial decisions. All programs include a budgeting feature that allows you to
foresee or project possible scenarios and gauge your ability to live with them. This
feature is particularly useful when budgeting for income and living expenses.
(Budgeting is discussed more thoroughly in Chapter 5 "Financial Plans: Budgets".)
Most programs have features that allow you to project the results of savings plans
for education or retirement. None can dictate the future, or allow you to, but they
can certainly help you to have a better view.
As with all Internet transactions, you should be aware that the more your data is
transferred, downloaded, or exported over the Internet, the more exposed it is to
theft. Personal financial data theft is a serious and growing problem worldwide, and
security systems are hard pressed to keep up with the ingenuity of hackers. The
convenience gained by having your bank, brokerage, tax preparer, and so on
accessible to you (and your data accessible to them) or your data accessible to you
wherever you are must be weighed against the increased exposure to data theft. As
always, the potential benefit should be considered against the costs.
Keeping digital records of your finances may be more secure than keeping them
scattered in shoeboxes or files, exposed to risks such as fire, flood, and theft. Digital
records are often easily retrievable because the software organizes them
systematically for you. Space is not a practical issue with digital storage, so records
may be kept longer. As with anything digital, however, you must be diligent about
backing up your data, although many programs will do that automatically or
regularly prompt you to do so. Hard copy records must be disposed of periodically,
and judging how long to keep them is always difficult. Throwing them in the trash
may be risky because of “dumpster diving,” a well-known method of identity theft,
so documents with financial information should always be shredded before
disposal.
Personal financial software is usually quite reasonably priced, with many programs
selling for less than $50, and most for less than $100. Buying the software usually
costs less than buying an hour of accounting expertise from an accountant or
financial planner. While software cannot replace financial planning professionals
who provide valuable judgment, it can allow you to hire them only for their
judgment and not have to pay them to collect, classify, sort, and report your
financial data.
Software will not improve your financial situation, but it can improve the
organization of your financial data monthly and yearly, allowing you a much
clearer view and almost certainly a much better understanding of your situation.
Software References
http://financialsoft.about.com/od/softwaretitle1/u/
Get_Started_Financial_Software.htm
• http://financialsoft.about.com/od/reviewsfinancesoftware/
2_Financial_Software_Reviews.htm
• http://personal-finance-software-review.toptenreviews.com/
• http://blogs.zdnet.com/gadgetreviews/?p=432
• http://linux.com/feature/49400
• http://financialsoft.about.com/b/2008/04/09/updated-top-
personal-finance-software-for-mac-os.htm
• Quicken
• Moneydance
• AceMoney
• BankTree Personal
• Rich Or Poor
• Budget Express
• Account Xpress
• iCash
• Homebookkeeping
• 3click Budget
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ Education savings
◦ Retirement savings
◦ Debt repayment
◦ Mortgage repayment
◦ Income and expense budgeting
EXERCISES
Introduction
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Chapter 4 Evaluating Choices: Time, Risk, and Value
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Part of the planning process is evaluating the possible future results of a decision.
Since those results will occur some time from now (i.e., in the future), it is critical to
understand how time passing may affect those benefits and costs—not only the
probability of their occurrence, but also their value when they do. Time affects
value because time affects liquidity.
Liquidity is valuable, and the liquidity of an asset affects its value: all things being
equal, the more liquid an asset is, the better. This relationship—how the passage of
time affects the liquidity of money and thus its value—is commonly referred to as
the time value of money1, which can actually be calculated concretely as well as
understood abstractly.
Suppose you went to Mexico, where the currency is the peso. Coming from the
United States, you have a fistful of dollars. When you get there, you are hungry. You
see and smell a taco stand and decide to have a taco. Before you can buy the taco,
however, you have to get some pesos so that you can pay for it because the right
currency is needed to trade in that market. You have wealth (your fistful of dollars),
but you don’t have wealth that is liquid. In order to change your dollars into pesos
and acquire liquidity, you need to exchange currency. There is a fee to exchange
your currency: a transaction cost2, which is the cost of simply making the trade. It
also takes a bit of time, and you could be doing other things, so it creates an
1. The impact of the passing of opportunity cost (see Chapter 2 "Basic Ideas of Finance"). There is also the chance
time on the value of money, that you won’t be able to make the exchange for some reason, or that it will cost
based on the premise that
more than you thought, so there is a bit of risk involved. Obtaining liquidity for
being separated from liquidity
creates oportunity cost. your wealth creates transaction costs, opportunity costs, and risk.
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Chapter 4 Evaluating Choices: Time, Risk, and Value
The further in the future cash flows are, the farther away you are from your
liquidity, the more opportunity cost and risk you have, and the more that takes
away from the present value (PV) of your wealth, which is not yet liquid. In other
words, time puts distance between you and your liquidity, and that creates costs
that take away from value. The more time there is, the larger its effect on the value
of wealth.
Financial plans are expected to happen in the future, so financial decisions are
based on values some distance away in time. You could be trying to project an
amount at some point in the future—perhaps an investment payout or college
tuition payment. Or perhaps you are thinking about a series of cash flows that
happen over time—for example, annual deposits into and then withdrawals from a
retirement account. To really understand the time value of those cash flows, or to
compare them in any reasonable way, you have to understand the relationships
between the nominal or face values in the future and their equivalent, present
values (i.e., what their values would be if they were liquid today). The equivalent
present values today will be less than the nominal or face values in the future
because that distance over time, that separation from liquidity, costs us by
discounting those values.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
1. How does the expression “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”
relate to the concept of the time value of money?
2. In what four ways can “delay to liquidity” affect the value of your
wealth?
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
It is usually not difficult to forecast the timing and amounts of future cash flows.
Although there may be some uncertainty about them, gauging the rate at which
time affects money can require some judgment. That rate, commonly called the
discount rate3 because time discounts value, is the opportunity cost of not having
liquidity. Opportunity cost derives from forgone choices or sacrificed alternatives,
and sometimes it is not clear what those might have been (see Chapter 2 "Basic
Ideas of Finance"). It is an important judgment call to make, though, because the
rate will directly affect the valuation process.
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Chapter 4 Evaluating Choices: Time, Risk, and Value
Figure 4.4
If you left that amount in the bank until your twenty-second birthday, you would
have
To generalize the computation, if your present value4, or PV, is your value today, r
is the rate at which time affects value or discount rate (in this case, your interest
rate), and if t is the number of time periods between you and your liquidity, then
the future value5, or FV, of your wealth would be
Figure 4.5
PV × (1 + r)t = FV.
In this case,
Assuming there is little chance that your grandparents will not be able to give this
gift, there is negligible risk. Your only cost of not having liquidity now is the
opportunity cost of having to delay consumption or not earning the interest you
could have earned.
PV × (1 + r)t = FV,
then
PV = FV/[(1 + r)t ],
so
PV = 1,000/(1.04 1 ) = 961.5385.
Your gift is worth $961.5385 today (its present value). If your grandparents offered
to give you your twenty-first birthday gift on your twentieth birthday, they could
give you $961.5385 today, which would be the equivalent value to you of getting
$1,000 one year from now.
PV × (1 + r)t = FV.
The “r” is more formally called the “discount rate” because it is the rate at which
your liquidity is discounted by time, and it includes not only opportunity costs but
also risk. (On some financial calculators, “r” is displayed as “I” or “i.”)
The “t” is how far away you are from your liquidity over time.
Studying this equation yields valuable insights into the relationship it describes.
Looking at the equation, you can observe the following relationships.
The more time (t) separating you from your liquidity, the more time affects value.
The less time separating you from your liquidity, the less time affects value (as t
decreases, PV increases).
The greater the rate at which time affects value (r), or the greater the opportunity
cost and risk, the more time affects value. The less your opportunity cost or risk,
the less your value is affected.
Figure 4.6 "Present Values, Interest Rates, Time, and Future Values" presents
examples of these relationships.
Figure 4.6 Present Values, Interest Rates, Time, and Future Values
The strategy implications of this understanding are simple, yet critical. All things
being equal, it is more valuable to have liquidity (get paid, or have positive cash
flow) sooner rather than later and give up liquidity (pay out, or have negative cash
flow) later rather than sooner.
If possible, accelerate incoming cash flows and decelerate outgoing cash flows: get
paid sooner, but pay out later. Or, as Popeye’s pal Wimpy used to say, “I’ll give you
50 cents tomorrow for a hamburger today.”
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• The relationship of
◦ The more time (t) creates distance from liquidity, the more
time affects value.
◦ The greater the rate at which time affects value (r), or the
greater the opportunity cost and risk, the more time affects
value.
◦ The closer the liquidity, the less time affects value.
◦ The less the opportunity cost or risk, the less value is
affected.
• To maximize value, get paid sooner and pay later.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• the amount of the future cash flows (the same for each),
• the frequency of the cash flows,
7. A series of cash flows in which
equal amounts happen at • the number of cash flows (t),
regular, periodic intervals. • the rate at which time affects value (r).
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Chapter 4 Evaluating Choices: Time, Risk, and Value
Almost any calculator and the many readily available software applications can do
the math for you, but it is important for you to understand the relationships
between time, risk, opportunity cost, and value.
If you win the lottery, for example, you are typically offered a choice of payouts for
your winnings: a lump sum or an annual payment over twenty years.
The lottery agency would prefer that you took the annual payment because it would
not have to give up as much liquidity all at once; it could hold on to its liquidity
longer. To make the annual payment more attractive for you—it isn’t, because you
would want to have more liquidity sooner—the lump-sum option is discounted to
reflect the present value of the payment annuity. The discount rate, which
determines that present value, is chosen at the discretion of the lottery agency.
Say you win $10 million. The lottery agency offers you a choice: take $500,000 per
year over 20 years or take a one-time lump-sum payout of $6,700,000. You would
choose the alternative with the greatest value. The present value of the lump-sum
payout is $6,700,000. The value of the annuity is not simply $10 million, or $500,000
× 20, because those $500,000 payments are received over time and time affects
liquidity and thus value. So the question is, What is the annuity worth to you?
Your discount rate or opportunity cost will determine the annuity’s value to you, as
Figure 4.8 "Lottery Present Value with Different Discount Rates" shows.
As expected, the present value of the annuity is less if your discount rate—or
opportunity cost or next best choice—is more. The annuity would be worth the
same to you as the lump-sum payout if your discount rate were 4.16 percent.
In other words, if your discount rate is about 4 percent or less—if you don’t have
more lucrative choices than earning 4 percent with that liquidity—then the annuity
is worth more to you than the immediate payout. You can afford to wait for that
liquidity and collect it over twenty years because you have no better choice. On the
other hand, if your discount rate is higher than 4 percent, or if you feel that your
use of that liquidity would earn you more than 4 percent, then you have more
lucrative things to do with that money and you want it now: the annuity is worth
less to you than the payout.
For an annuity, as when relating one cash flow’s present and future value, the
greater the rate at which time affects value, the greater the effect on the present
value. When opportunity cost or risk is low, waiting for liquidity doesn’t matter as
much as when opportunity costs or risks are higher. When opportunity costs are
low, you have nothing better to do with your liquidity, but when opportunity costs
are higher, you may sacrifice more by having no liquidity. Liquidity is valuable
because it allows you to make choices. After all, if there are no more valuable
choices to make, you lose little by giving up liquidity. The higher the rate at which
time affects value, the more it costs to wait for liquidity, and the more choices pass
you by while you wait for liquidity.
When risk is low, it is not really important to have your liquidity firmly in hand any
sooner because you’ll have it sooner or later anyhow. But when risk is high, getting
liquidity sooner becomes more important because it lessens the chance of not
getting it at all. The higher the rate at which time affects value, the more risk there
is in waiting for liquidity and the more chance that you won’t get it at all.
You can also look at the relationship of time and cash flow to annuity value.
Suppose your payout was more (or less) each year, or suppose your payout
happened over more (or fewer) years (Figure 4.9 "Lottery Payout Present Values").
As seen in Figure 4.9 "Lottery Payout Present Values", the amount of each payment
or cash flow affects the value of the annuity because more cash means more
liquidity and greater value.
Although time increases the distance from liquidity, with an annuity, it also
increases the number of payments because payments occur periodically. The more
periods in the annuity, the more cash flows and the more liquidity there are, thus
increasing the value of the annuity.
It turns out that the relationships between time, risk, opportunity cost, and value
are predictable going forward as well. Say you decide to take the $500,000 annual
lottery payout for twenty years. If you deposit that payout in a bank account
earning 4 percent, how much would you have in twenty years? What if the account
earned more interest? Less interest? What if you won more (or less) so the payout
was more (or less) each year?
What if you won $15 million and the payout was $500,000 per year for thirty years,
how much would you have then? Or if you won $5 million and the payout was only
for ten years? Figure 4.10 "Lottery Payout Future Values" shows how future values
would change.
Going forward, the rate at which time affects value (r) is the rate at which value
grows, or the rate at which your value compounds. It is also called the rate of
compounding8. The bigger the effect of time on value, the more value you will end
up with because more time has affected the value of your money while it was
growing as it waited for you. So, looking forward at the future value of an annuity:
The amount of each payment or cash flow affects the value of the annuity because
more cash means more liquidity and greater value. If you were getting more cash
each year and depositing it into your account, you’d end up with more value.
The more time there is, the more time can affect value. As payments occur
periodically, the more cash flows there are, the more liquidity there is. The more
periods in the annuity, the more cash flows, and the greater the effect of time, thus
increasing the future value of the annuity.
There is also a special kind of annuity called a perpetuity9, which is an annuity that
goes on forever (i.e., a series of cash flows of equal amounts occurring at regular
intervals that never ends). It is hard to imagine a stream of cash flows that never
ends, but it is actually not so rare as it sounds. The dividends from a share of
corporate stock are a perpetuity, because in theory, a corporation has an infinite
life (as a separate legal entity from its shareholders or owners) and because, for
many reasons, corporations like to maintain a steady dividend for their
shareholders.
8. The effect of time on value or The perpetuity represents the maximum value of the annuity, or the value of the
the rate at which time affects
value; used when calculating annuity with the most cash flows and therefore the most liquidity and therefore the
the equivalent future value of a most value.
present amount of liquidity.
Once you understand the idea of the time value of money, and of its use for valuing
a series of cash flows and of annuities in particular, you can’t believe how you ever
got through life without it. These are the fundamental relationships that structure
so many financial decisions, most of which involve a series of cash inflows or
outflows. Understanding these relationships can be a tool to help you answer some
of the most common financial questions about buying and selling liquidity, because
loans and investments are so often structured as annuities and certainly take place
over time.
Loans are usually designed as annuities, with regular periodic payments that
include interest expense and principal repayment. Using these relationships, you
can see the effect of a different amount borrowed (PVannuity), interest rate (r), or
term of the loan (t) on the periodic payment (CF).
For example, if you get a $250,000 (PV), thirty-year (t), 6.5 percent (r) mortgage, the
monthly payment will be $1,577 (CF). If the same mortgage had an interest rate of
only 5.5 percent (r), your monthly payment would decrease to $1,423 (CF). If it were
a fifteen-year (t) mortgage, still at 6.5 percent (r), the monthly payment would be
$2,175 (CF). If you can make a larger down payment and borrow less, say $200,000
(PV), then with a thirty-year (t), 6.5 percent (r) mortgage you monthly payment
would be only $1,262 (CF) (Figure 4.11 "Mortgage Calculations").
Note that in Figure 4.11 "Mortgage Calculations", the mortgage rate is the monthly
rate, that is, the annual rate divided by twelve (months in the year) or r ÷ 12, and
that t is stated as the number of months, or the number of years × 12 (months in the
year). That is because the mortgage requires monthly payments, so all the variables
must be expressed in units of months. In general, the periodic unit used is defined
by the frequency of the cash flows and must agree for all variables. In this example,
because you have monthly cash flows, you must calculate using the monthly
discount rate (r) and the number of months (t).
For example, if you want to have $1,000,000 (FV) in the bank when you retire, and
your bank pays 3 percent (r) interest per year, and you can save $10,000 per year
(CF) toward retirement, can you afford to retire at age sixty-five? You could if you
start saving at age eighteen, because with that annual saving at that rate of return,
it will take forty-seven years (t) to have $1,000,000 (FV). If you could save $20,000
per year (CF), it would only take thirty-one years (t) to save $1,000,000 (FV). If you
are already forty years old, you could do it if you save $27,428 per year (CF) or if you
can earn a return of at least 5.34 percent (r) (Figure 4.12 "Retirement Savings
Calculations").
As you can see, the relationships between time, risk, opportunity cost, and value are
some of the most important relationships you will ever encounter in life, and
understanding them is critical to making sound financial decisions.
Financial Calculations
Modern tools make it much easier to do the math. Calculators, spreadsheets, and
software have been developed to be very user friendly and widely available.
Financial calculators are designed for financial calculations and have the equations
relating the present and future values, cash flows, the discount rate, and time
embedded, for single amounts or for a series of cash flows, so that you can calculate
any one of those variables if you know all the others.
Personal finance software packages usually come with a planning calculator, which
is nothing more than a formula with these equations embedded, so that you can
find any one variable if you know the others. These tools are usually presented as a
“mortgage calculator” or a “loan calculator” or a “retirement planner” and are set
up to answer common planning questions such as “How much do I have to save
every year for retirement?” or “What will my monthly loan payment be?”
© 2010 Jupiterimages
The calculations are discussed here not so that you can Corporation
perform them, as you have many tools to choose from
that can do that more efficiently, but so that you can
understand them, and most importantly, so that you
can understand the relationships that they describe.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ The more time (t), the more periods and the more periodic
payments, that is, the more cash flows, and so the more
liquidity and the more value.
◦ The greater the cash flows, the more liquidity and the more
value.
◦ The greater the rate at which time affects value (r) or the
greater the opportunity cost and risk or the greater the rate
of discounting, the more time affects value.
◦ The more time (t), the more periods and the more periodic
payments, that is, the more cash flows, and so the more
liquidity and the more value.
◦ The greater the cash flows, the more liquidity and the more
value.
◦ The greater the rate at which time affects value (r) or the
greater the rate of compounding, the more time affects
value.
• A perpetuity is an infinite annuity.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVE
Now that you understand the relationship of time and value, especially looking
forward, you can begin to think about how your ideas and plans will look as they
happen. More specifically, you can begin to see how your future will look in the
mirror of your financial statements. Projected or pro forma financial statements10
can show the consequences of choices. To project future financial statements, you
need to be able to envision the expected results of all the items on them. This can be
difficult, for there can be many variables that may affect your income and expenses
or cash flows (CF), and some of them may be unpredictable. Predictions always
contain uncertainty, so projections are always, at best, educated guesses. Still, they
can be useful in helping you to see how the future may look.
We can glimpse Alice’s projected cash flow statements and balance sheets for each
of her choices, for example, and their possible outcomes. Alice can actually project
how her financial statements will look after each choice is followed.
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Chapter 4 Evaluating Choices: Time, Risk, and Value
Looking more closely at the actual numbers on each statement gives a much clearer
look at Alice’s situation. Beginning with the income statement, income will increase
if she works a second job or goes to Vegas and wins, while expenses will increase
(travel expense) if she goes to Vegas at all. Assume that her second job would bring
in an extra $20,000 income and that she could win or lose $100,000 in Vegas. Any
change in gross wages or winnings (losses) would have a tax consequence; if she
loses in Vegas, she will still have income taxes on her salary. Figure 4.15 "Alice’s Pro
Forma Income Statements" begins with Alice’s pro forma income statements.
While Vegas yields the largest increase in net income or personal profit if she wins,
it creates the largest decrease if she loses; it is clearly the riskiest option. The pro
forma cash flow statements (Figure 4.16 "Alice’s Pro Forma Cash Flow Statements")
reinforce this observation.
If Alice has a second job, she will use the extra cash flow, after taxes, to pay down
her student loan, leaving her with a bit more free cash flow than she would have
had without the second job. If she wins in Vegas, she can pay off both her car loan
and her student loan and still have an increased free cash flow. However, if she
loses in Vegas, she will have to secure more debt to cover her losses. Assuming she
borrows as much as she loses, she will have a small negative net cash flow and no
free cash flow, and her other assets will have to make up for this loss of cash value.
So, how will Alice’s financial condition look in one year? That depends on how she
proceeds, but the pro forma balance sheets (Figure 4.17 "Alice’s Pro Forma Balance
Sheets") can give a glimpse.
If Alice has a second job, her net worth increases but is still negative, as she has paid
down more of her student loan than she otherwise would have, but it is still larger
than her asset value. If she wins in Vegas, her net worth can be positive; with her
loan paid off entirely, her asset value will equal her net worth. However, if she loses
in Vegas, she will have to borrow more, her new debt quadrupling her liabilities and
decreasing her net worth by that much more.
A summary of the critical “bottom lines” from each pro forma statement (Figure
4.18 "Alice’s Pro Forma Bottom Lines") most clearly shows Alice’s complete picture
for each alternative.
Going to Vegas creates the best and the worst scenarios for Alice, depending on
whether she wins or loses. While the outcomes for continuing or getting a second
job are fairly certain, the outcome in Vegas is not; there are two possible outcomes
in Vegas. The Vegas choice has the most risk or the least certainty.
The Vegas alternative also has strategic costs: if she loses, her increased debt and its
obligations—more interest and principal payments on more debt—will further delay
her goal of building an asset base from which to generate new sources of income. In
the near future, or until her new debt is repaid, she will have even fewer financial
choices.
The strategic benefit of the Vegas alternative is that if she wins, she can eliminate
debt, begin to build her asset base, and have even more choices (by eliminating debt
and freeing cash flow).
The next step for Alice would be to try to assess the probabilities of winning or of
losing in Vegas. Once she has determined the risk involved—given the
consequences now illuminated on the pro forma financial statements—she would
have to decide if she can tolerate that risk, or if she should reject that alternative
because of its risk.
KEY TAKEAWAY
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Risk affects financial decision making in mysterious ways, many of which are the
subject of an entire area of scholarship now known as behavioral finance. The study
of risk and the interpretation of probabilities are complex. In making financial
decisions, a grasp of their basic dynamics is useful. One of the most important to
understand is the idea of independence.
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Chapter 4 Evaluating Choices: Time, Risk, and Value
If you get $1.00 every time the coin flips “heads” and it does so half the time, then
half the time you get a dollar, or you can expect overall to realize half a dollar or
$0.50 from flipping “heads.” The other half of the time, you can expect to lose a
dollar, so your expectation has to include the possibility of flipping “tails” with an
overall or average result of losing $0.50 or −$0.50. So you can expect 0.50 from one
outcome and −0.50 from the other: altogether, you can expect 0.50 + −0.50 or 0
(which is why “flipping coins” is not a popular casino game.)
The expected value (E(V)) of an event is the sum of each possible outcome’s
probability multiplied by its result, or
E(V) = Σ(pn × rn ),
Using the same calculations, she can project the expected result of going to Vegas
on her pro forma financial statements (Figure 4.21 "Alice’s Expected Outcomes with
a 30 Percent Chance of Winning in Vegas"). Look at the effect on her bottom lines:
Figure 4.21 Alice’s Expected Outcomes with a 30 Percent Chance of Winning in Vegas
If she only has a 30 percent chance of winning in Vegas, then going there at all is
the worst choice for her in terms of her net income and net worth. Her net cash
flow (CF) actually seems best with the Vegas option, but that assumes she can
borrow to pay her gambling losses, so her losses don’t create net negative cash flow.
She does, however, create debt.
Alice can also calculate what the probability of winning would have to be to make it
a worthwhile choice at all, that is, to give her at least as good a result as either of
her other choices (Figure 4.22 "Alice’s Expected Outcomes to Make Vegas a
Competitive Choice").
To be the best choice in terms of all three bottom lines, Alice would have to have a
78 percent chance of winning at Vegas.
Her net worth would still be negative, but all three bottom lines would be at least as
good or better than they would be with her other two choices. If Alice thought she
had at least a 78 percent chance of winning and could tolerate the risk that she
might not, Vegas would be a viable choice for her.
Those are two very big “ifs,” but by being able to project an expected value or result
for each of her choices, using the probabilities of each outcome for the choice with
uncertainty, Alice can at least measure and compare the choices.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
Introduction
Seeing the value of reaching a goal is often much easier than seeing a way to reach
that goal. People often resolve to somehow improve themselves or their lives. But
while they are not lacking sincerity, determination, or effort, they nevertheless fall
short for want of a plan, a map, a picture of why and how to get from here to there.
Pro forma financial statements provide a look at the potential results of financial
decisions. They can also be used as a tool to plan for certain results. When projected
in the form of a budget1, figures become not only an estimated result but also an
actual strategy or plan, a map illustrating a path to achieve a goal. Later, when you
compare actual results to the original plan, you can see how shortfalls or successes
can point to future strategies.
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Chapter 5 Financial Plans: Budgets
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The budget process is an infinite loop similar to the larger financial planning
process. It involves
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Chapter 5 Financial Plans: Budgets
made, or that you must change your behavior, or even that your goals are
unattainable and should be more realistic—perhaps based on less desirable choices.
On the other hand, this can be a process of happy discovery: goals may be closer or
require less sacrifice than you may have thought.
2. In finance, an approach You will also need to determine a time period and frequency for your budget
preferred in all financial process: annually, monthly, or weekly. The timing will depend on how much
planning: overestimate financial activity you have and how much discipline or guidance you want your
expenses, losses, and the value
budget to provide. You should assess your progress at least annually. In general,
of liabilities and underestimate
incomes, gains, and the value you want to keep a manageable amount of data for any one period, so the more
of assets. This is based on the financial activity you have, the shorter your budget period should be. Since your
idea that any surprises should budget needs to be monitored consistently, you don’t want to be flooded with so
be advantageous. The use of
this word in finance and much data that monitoring becomes too daunting a task. On the other hand, you
accounting has absolutely no want to choose an ample period or time frame to show meaningful results. Choose a
relation to any political time period that makes sense for your quantity of data or level of financial activity.
associations that the word may
have gained in common usage.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ Overestimate costs.
◦ Underestimate earnings.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Gathering data and creating a budget—with some goals already in mind—are the
initial steps in the process. Understanding the format or shape of the budget will
help guide you to the kind of information you need. A comprehensive
budget3—that is, a budget covering all aspects of financial life—will include a
projection of recurring incomes and expenses and of nonrecurring expenditures.
(Nonrecurring income or “windfalls” should not be counted on or “budgeted for,”
conservatively.) Recurring incomes would be earnings from wages, interest, or
dividends. Recurring expenditures may include living expenses, loan repayments,
and regular savings or investment deposits. Nonrecurring expenditures may be for
capital improvements such as a new roof for your house or for purchases of durable
items such as a refrigerator or a car. These are purchases that would not be made
each period. A comprehensive budget diagram is shown in Figure 5.4
"Comprehensive Budget Diagram".
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Chapter 5 Financial Plans: Budgets
Recurring incomes and expenditures are usually the easiest to determine and
project, as they happen consistently and have an immediate effect on your
4. The budget the shows everyday living. An income statement shows incomes and expenses; cash flow
recurring income and statements show actual cash expenditures. Recurring incomes and expenditures are
expenses, usually living
expenses and incomes from
planned in the context of short-term lifestyle goals or preferences.
wages, interest, and dividends,
usually related to short-term
financial goals. Look at a time period large enough to capture relevant data. Some incomes and
expenditures recur reliably but only periodically or seasonally. For example, you
5. The budget that shows
may pay the premium on your auto insurance policy twice per year. It is a recurring
nonrecurring events that are
usually associated with long- expense, but it happens in only two months of the year, so you would have to look
term financial goals. at expenditures over enough months to see it. Or your heating or cooling expenses
may change seasonally, affecting your utility expenses in some months more than
in others.
The time period you choose for a budget should be long enough to show
intermittent items as recurring and nonrecurring items as unusual, yet small
enough to follow and to manage choices within the period. For personal budgets, a
month is the most common budget period to use, since most living expenses are
paid at least monthly. However, it is best to use at least one full year’s worth of data
to get a reasonable monthly average and to see seasonal and periodic items as they
occur.
Some items may recur, but not reliably: either their frequency or their amount is
uncertain. Taking a conservative approach, you should include the maximum
possible amount of uncertain expenses in your budget. If income occurs regularly
but the amount is uncertain, conservatively include the minimum amount. If
income actually happens irregularly, it may be better just to leave it out of your
budget—and your plans—since you can’t “count” on it.
Consider the following example: Mark works as a school counselor, tutors on the
side, does house painting in the summer, and buys and sells sports memorabilia on
the Internet. In 2006, he bought an older house with a $200,000, fixed-rate mortgage
at 5.75 percent. Every year, he deposits $1,000 into his retirement account and uses
some capital for home improvements. He used a car loan to buy his car. Whatever
cash is left over after he has paid his bills is saved in a money market account that
earns 3 percent interest. At the end of 2009, Mark is trying to draw up a budget for
2010. Since he bought the house, he has been keeping pretty good financial records,
shown in Figure 5.5 "Mark’s Financial Data, 2006–2009".
Mark has five sources of income—some more constant, some more reliable, and
some more seasonal. His counseling job provides a steady, year-round paycheck.
House painting is a seasonal although fairly reliable source of income; in 2008 it was
less because Mark fell from a ladder and was unable to paint for two months.
Tutoring is a seasonal source of income, and since the school hired an additional
counselor in 2008, it has decreased. Memorabilia trading is a year-round but
unpredictable source of income. In 2009 he made some very lucrative trades, but in
2007 almost none. Interest income depends on the balance in the money market
account. He would include his counseling, painting, and interest incomes in his
budget, but should be conservative about including his tutoring or trading incomes.
Mark’s expenses are reliable and easily predictable, with a few exceptions. His
accident in 2008 increased his medical expenses for that year. Both gas for the car
and heating expense vary with the weather and the highly volatile price of oil; in
2008 those expenses were unusually high. Property tax increased in 2009 but is
unlikely to do so again for several years.
For example, if you are expecting to increase or decrease the size of your family or
household, that would affect your consumption of goods and services. If you
anticipate a change of job or of career, that will affect your income from wages. A
change in health may result in working more or less and thus changing income
from wages. There are many ways that personal circumstances can change, and
they can change your financial expectations, choices, and goals. All these projected
changes need to be included in the budget process.
Macro factors affecting your budget come from the context of the wider economy,
so understanding how incomes and expenses are created is useful in forming
estimates. Incomes are created when labor or capital (liquidity or assets) is sold.
The amount of income created depends on the quantity sold and on the price.
The price of labor depends on the relative supply and demand for labor reflected in
unemployment rates. The price of liquidity depends on the relative supply and
demand for capital reflected in interest rates. Unemployment rates and interest
rates in turn depend on the complex, dynamic economy.
Expenses are created when a quantity of goods or services is consumed for a price.
That price depends on the relative supply of and demand for those goods and
services and also on the larger context of price levels in the economy. If inflation or
deflation is decreasing or increasing the value of our currency, then its purchasing
power is changing and so is the real cost of expenses. Again, as a rule, the budget
period should be short enough so that changes in purchasing power won’t affect the
budget too much; still, these changes should not be ignored. Price levels are much
quicker to change than wage levels, so it is quite possible to have a rise in prices
before a rise in wages, which decreases the real purchasing power of your paycheck.
If you have a variable rate loan—that is, a loan for which the interest rate may be
adjusted periodically—you are susceptible to interest rate volatility. (This is
discussed at length in Chapter 16 "Owning Bonds".) You should be aware of that
particular macro factor when creating your budget.
Using his past history, current information, and understanding of current and
expected macroeconomic factors, Mark has put together the budget shown in
Figure 5.8 "Mark’s 2010 Budget".
To project incomes, Mark relied on his newest information to estimate his wages
and tutoring income. He used the minimum income from the past four years for
memorabilia sales, which is conservative and reasonable given its volatility. His
painting income is less volatile, so his estimate is an average, excluding the unusual
year of his accident. Interest income is based on his current money market account
balance, which is adjusted for an expected drop in interest rates.
Mark expects his expenses to be what they were in 2009, since his costs and
consumption are not expected to change. However, he has adjusted his medical and
dental insurance and his car lease payments on the basis of his new knowledge.
The price of gas and heating oil has been extraordinarily volatile during this period
(2006–2009), affecting Mark’s gas and heating expense, so he bases his estimates on
what he knows about his expected consumption and the price. He knows he drives
an average of about 15,000 miles per year and that his car gets about 20 miles per
gallon. He estimates his gas expense for 2010 by guessing that since oil price levels
are about where they were in 2007, gas will cost, on average, what it did then, which
was $2.50 per gallon. He will buy, on average, 750 gallons per year (15,000 miles ÷ 20
mpg), so his total expense will be $1,875. Mark also knows that he uses 500 gallons
of heating oil each year. Estimating heating oil prices at 2007 levels, his cost will be
about the same as it was then, or $1,200.
Mark knows that the more knowledge and information he can bring to bear, the
more accurate and useful his estimates are likely to be.
Income remaining after the deduction of living expenses and debt obligations, or
free cash flow6, is cash available for capital expenditures or investment. Capital
expenditures are usually part of a long-term plan of building an asset base.
Investment may also be part of a longer-term plan to build an asset base or to
achieve a specific goal such as financing education or retirement.
Long-term strategies are based on expected changes to the micro factors that shape
goals. For example, you want to save for retirement because you anticipate aging
and not being as willing or able to sell labor. Expanding or shrinking the family
structure may create new savings goals or a change in housing needs that will
indicate a change in asset base (e.g., buying or selling a house).
Some changes will eliminate a specific goal. A child finishing college, for example,
6. Income remaining after the
ends the need for education savings. Some changes will emphasize the necessity of
deduction of living expenses
and debt obligations that is a goal, such as a decline in health underscoring the need to save for retirement. As
available for capital personal factors change, you should reassess your longer-term goals and the capital
expenditures or investment.
expenditure toward those goals because long-term goals and thus capital
expenditures may change with them.
While many personal factors are relatively predictable over the long-term (e.g., you
will get older, not younger), the macroeconomic factors that will occur
simultaneously are much harder to predict. Will the economy be expanding or
contracting when you retire? Will there be inflation or deflation? The further (in
time) you are from your goals, the harder it is to predict those factors and the less
relevant they are to your budgeting concerns. As you get closer to your goals,
macro factors become more influential in the assessment of your goals and your
progress toward them.
Figure 5.10 Factors for Determining the Projected Capital Budget Item
Mark’s 2010 budget (shown in Figure 5.8 "Mark’s 2010 Budget") projects a drop in
income and disposable income, and a rise in living expenses, leaving him with less
free cash flow for capital expenditures or investments. He knows that his house
needs a new roof (estimated cost = $15,000) and was hoping to have that done in
2010. However, that capital expenditure would create negative net cash flow, even if
he also uses the savings from his money market account. Mark’s budget shows that
both his short-term lifestyle preferences (projected income and expenses) and
progress toward his longer-term goals (property improvement and savings) cannot
be achieved without some changes and choices. What should those changes and
choices be?
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ financial history,
◦ new information and microeconomic factors,
◦ macroeconomic factors.
• Different methods may be used to project different incomes and
expenses depending on the probability, volatility, and predictability of
quantity and price.
EXERCISES
1. Using Mark’s budget sheet as a guide, adapt the budget categories and
amounts to reflect your personal financial realities and projections.
Develop an operating budget and a capital budget, distinguishing
recurring incomes and expenses from nonrecurring capital
expenditures. On what bases will you make projections about your
future incomes and expenses?
2. How does your budget sheet relate to your income statement, your cash
flow statement, and your balance sheet? How will you use this past
history to develop a budget to reach your short-term and long-term
goals?
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
When cash flows are not periodic, that is, when they are affected by seasonality or a
different frequency than the budgetary period, a closer look at cash flow
management can be helpful. Although cash flows may be adequate to support
expenses for the whole year, there may be timing differences. Cash flows from
income may be less frequent than cash flows for expenses, for example, or may be
seasonal while expenses are more regular. Most expenses must be paid on a
monthly basis, and if some income cash flows occur less frequently or only
seasonally, there is a risk of running out of cash in a specific month. For cash flows,
timing is everything.
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Chapter 5 Financial Plans: Budgets
Mark’s original annual budget (Figure 5.8 "Mark’s 2010 Budget") shows that
although his income is enough to cover his living expenses, it does not produce
enough cash to support his capital expenditures, specifically, to fix the roof. In fact,
his cash flow would fall short by about $6,870, even after he uses the cash from his
savings (the money market account). If he must make the capital expenditure this
year, he can finance it with a line of credit7: a loan where money can be borrowed
as needed, up to a limit, and paid down as desired, and interest is paid only on the
outstanding balance. Using the line of credit, Mark would create an extra $321 of
interest expense for the year.
The cash budget (Figure 5.11 "Mark’s Cash Budget") shows a more detailed and
slightly different story. Because of Mark’s seasonal incomes, if he has the roof fixed
in May, he will need to borrow $10,525 in May (before he has income from
painting). Then he can pay that balance down until October, when he will need to
extend it again to pay his property tax. By the end of the year, his outstanding debt
7. A loan structured such that
money can be borrowed as will be a bit more than originally shown, with an ending balance of $6,887. But his
needed, up to a limit, and paid total interest expense will be a bit less—only $221—as the loan balance (and
down as desired, and interest is therefore the interest expense) will be less in some of the months that he has the
paid regularly but only on the
outstanding balance. loan.
The cash (monthly) budget shows a different story than the annual budget because
of the seasonal nature of Mark’s incomes. Since he is planning the capital
expenditures before he begins to earn income from painting, he actually has to
borrow more—and assume more risk—than originally indicated.
The cash budget may show risks but also remedies that otherwise may not be
apparent. In Mark’s case, it is clear that the capital expenditure cannot be financed
without some external source of capital, most likely a line of credit. He would have
to pay interest on that loan, creating an additional expense. That expense would be
in proportion to the amount borrowed and the time it is borrowed for. In his
original plan the capital expenditure occurred in May, and Mark would have had to
borrow about $10,525, paying interest for the next seven months of the year.
Delaying the capital expenditure until October, however, would cost him less,
because he would have to borrow less and would be paying interest in fewer
months. An alternative cash budget illustrating this scenario is shown in Figure 5.12
"Mark’s Alternative Cash Budget".
Delaying the capital expenditure until October would also allow the money market
account to build value—Mark’s seasonal income would be deposited during the
Timing matters for cash flows because you need to get cash before you spend it, but
also because time affects value, so it is always better to have liquidity sooner and
hang onto it longer. A cash budget provides a much more detailed look at these
timing issues, and the risks—and opportunities—of cash management that you may
otherwise have missed.
While it can be valuable to isolate and identify the effects of a specific activity or
the progress toward a specific goal, that activity or that goal is ultimately just a part
of your larger financial picture. Specialized budgets need to remain a part of your
comprehensive financial planning.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
A budget variance10 occurs when the actual results of your financial activity differ
from your budgeted projections. Since your expectations were based on knowledge
from your financial history, micro- and macroeconomic factors, and new
information, if there is a variance, it is because your estimate was inaccurate or
because one or more of those factors changed unexpectedly. If your estimate was
inaccurate—perhaps you had overlooked or ignored a factor—knowing that can
help you improve. If one or more of those factors has changed unexpectedly, then
identifying the cause of the variance creates new information with which to better
assess your situation. At the very least, variances will alert you to the need for
adjustments to your budget and to the appropriate choices.
Once you have created a budget, your financial life continues. As actual data replace
projections, you must monitor the budget compared to your actual activities so that
you will notice any serious variances or deviations from the expected outcomes
detailed in the budget. Your analysis and understanding of variances constitute new
information for adjusting your current behavior, preparing the next budget, or
perhaps realistically reassessing your behavior or original goals.
The sooner you notice a budget variance, the sooner you can analyze it and, if
necessary, adjust for it. The sooner you correct the variance, the less it costs. For
example, perhaps you have had a little trouble living within your means, so you
have created a budget to help you do so. You have worked out a plan so that total
expenses are just as much as total income. In your original budget you expected to
have a certain expense for putting gas in your car, which you figured by knowing
the mileage that you drive and the current price of gas. You are following your
10. A difference between the budget and going along just fine. Suddenly, the price of gas goes way up. So does
actual results of your financial your monthly expense. That means you’ll have to
activity and your expected,
budgeted results.
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Chapter 5 Financial Plans: Budgets
• spend less for other expenses in order to keep your total expenses
within your budget,
• lower your gas expense by driving less, and/or
• increase your income to accommodate this larger expense.
© 2010 Jupiterimages
It bears repeating that once you have discovered a Corporation
significant budget variance, you need to analyze what
caused it so that you can address it properly.
Income results from the sale of labor (wages) or liquidity (interest or dividends). If
income deviates from its projection, it is because
• a different quantity was consumed at the expected price (e.g., you did
not use as much gas),
• the expected quantity was consumed at a different price (e.g., you used
as much gas but the price of gas fell), or
• a different quantity was consumed at a different price (e.g., you used
less gas and bought it for less).
Isolating the cause of a variance is useful because different causes will dictate
different remedies or opportunities. For example, if your gas expense has increased,
is it because you are driving more miles or because the price of gas has gone up?
You can’t control the price of gas, but you can control the miles you drive. Isolating
the cause allows you to identify realistic choices. In this case, if the variance is too
costly, you will need to address it by somehow driving fewer miles.
If your income falls, is it because your hourly wage has fallen or because you are
working fewer hours? If your wage has fallen, you need to try to increase it either
by negotiating with your employer or by seeking a new job at a higher wage. Your
success will depend on demand in the labor market and on your usefulness as a
supplier of labor.
If you are working fewer hours, it may be because your employer is offering you less
work or because you choose to work less. If the problem is with your employer, you
may need to renegotiate your position or find a new one. However, if your employer
is buying less labor because of decreased demand in the labor market, that may be
due to an industry or economic cycle, which may affect your success in making that
change.
If it is your choice of hours that has caused the variance, perhaps that is due to
personal factors—you are aging or your dependents require more care and
attention—that need to be resolved to allow you to work more. Or perhaps you
could simply choose to work more.
Identifying why you are going astray from your budget is critical in identifying
remedies and choices. Putting those causes in the context of the micro- and
macroeconomic factors that affect your situation will make your feasible choices
clearer. Figure 5.15 "The Causes of a Budget Variance" shows how these factors can
combine to cause a variance.
After three months, Mark decides to look at his budget variances to make sure he’s
on track. His actual results for January–March 2010 are detailed in Figure 5.16
"Mark’s Actual Income and Expenditures, January–March 2010".
How will Mark analyze the budget variances he finds? In Mark’s case, the income
variances are positive. He has picked up a couple of tutoring clients who have
committed to lessons through the end of the school year in June; this new
information can be used to adjust income. His memorabilia business has done well;
the volume of sales has not increased, but the memorabilia market seems to be up
and prices are better than expected. The memorabilia business is cyclical; economic
expansion and increases in disposable incomes enhance that market. Given the
volatility of prices in that market, however, and the fact that there has been no
increase in the volume of sales (Mark is not doing more business, just more
lucrative business), Mark will not make any adjustments going forward. Interest
rates have risen; Mark can use that macroeconomic news to adjust his expected
interest income.
His expenses are as expected. The only variance is the result of Mark’s decision to
cut his travel and entertainment budget for this year (i.e., giving up his vacation) to
offset the costs of the roof. He is planning that capital expenditure for October,
which (as seen in Figure 5.12 "Mark’s Alternative Cash Budget") will actually make
it cheaper to do. His adjusted cash budget is shown in Figure 5.17 "Mark’s Adjusted
Cash Budget for 2010".
With these adjustments, it turns out that Mark can avoid new debt and still support
the capital expenditure of the new roof. The increased income that Mark can expect
and his decreased expenses (if he can maintain his resolve) can finance the project
and still leave him with a bit of savings in his money market account.
Variances are also measures of the accuracy of your projections; what you learn
from them can improve your estimates and your budgeting ability. The unexpected
can always occur, but the better you can anticipate what to expect, the more
accurate—and useful—your budget process can be.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ actual quantity,
◦ actual price,
◦ both actual quantity and actual price.
• Variances also need to be analyzed in the context of micro and macro
factors that may change.
EXERCISE
You are working fewer hours, which is reducing your income from
employment and causing a budget variance. If the choice is yours, what are
some microeconomic factors that could be causing this outcome? If the
choice is your employer’s, what are some macroeconomic factors that could
be sources of the variance? What are your choices for increasing income?
Alternatively, what might you change in your financial behavior, budget, or
goals to your improve outcomes?
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Whatever type of budget you create, the budget process is one aspect of personal
financial planning, a tool to make better financial decisions. Other tools include
financial statements, assessments of risk and the time value of money,
macroeconomic indicators, and microeconomic or personal factors. The usefulness
of these tools is that they provide a clearer view of “what is” and “what is possible.”
It puts your current situation and your choices into a larger context, giving you a
better way to think about where you are, where you’d like to be, and how to go from
here to there.
Mark has to decide whether to go ahead with the new roof. Assuming the house
needs a new roof, his decision is really only about his choice of financing. An
analysis of Mark’s budget variances has shown that he can actually pay for the roof
with the savings in his money market account. This means his goal is more
attainable (and less costly) than in his original budget. This favorable outcome is
due to his efforts to increase income and reduce expenses and to macroeconomic
changes that have been to his advantage. So, Mark can make progress toward his
long-term goals of building his asset base. He can continue saving for retirement
with deposits to his retirement account and can continue improving his property
with a new roof on his house.
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Chapter 5 Financial Plans: Budgets
Right now that interest income is insignificant, but since it seems to be a period of
rising interest rates, the opportunity cost of forgone interest income could be
significant in the future if that account balance were allowed to grow.
Moreover, Mark will be moving value from a very liquid money market account to a
not-so-liquid house, decreasing his overall liquidity. Looking ahead, this loss of
liquidity could create another opportunity cost: it could narrow his options. Mark’s
liquidity will be pretty much depleted by the roof, so future capital expenditures
may have to be financed with debt. If interest rates continue to rise, that will make
financing future capital expenditures more expensive and perhaps will cause Mark
to delay those expenditures or even cancel them.
However, Mark also has a very reliable source of liquidity in his earnings—his
paycheck, which can offset this loss. If he can continue to generate free cash flow to
add to his savings, he can restore his money market account and his liquidity.
Having no dependents makes Mark more able to assume the risk of depleting his
liquidity now and relying on his income to restore it later.
11. A difference between two
interest rates, quoted in basis
points. The most commonly The opportunity cost of losing liquidity and interest income will be less than the
noted spreads are those
cost of new debt and new interest expense. That is because interest rates on loans
between Treasury and
corporate securities of the are always higher than interest rates on savings. Banks always charge more than
same maturity. they pay for liquidity. That spread11, or difference between those two rates, is the
bank’s profit, so the bank’s cost of buying money will always be less than the price
it sells for. The added risk and obligation of new debt could also create opportunity
cost and make it more difficult to finance future capital expenditures. So financing
the capital expenditure with an asset rather than with a liability is less costly both
immediately and in the future because it creates fewer obligations and more
opportunities, less opportunity cost, and less risk.
The budget and the financial statements allow Mark to project the effects of this
financial decision in the larger context of his current financial situation and
ultimate financial goals. His understanding of opportunity costs, liquidity, the time
value of money, and of personal and macroeconomic factors also helps him evaluate
his choices and their consequences. Mark can use this decision and its results to
inform his next decisions and his ultimate horizons.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISE
Introduction
All developed and most less-developed economies have a tax system that finances
their governments, at least in part. The design of that tax system reflects the
society’s view of the responsibilities of government and of its citizens for their
government.
In the United States there has always been disagreement about the role of
government as a producer for and a protector of the economy and its citizens. Even
before the United States was a nation, “taxation without representation” was a
rallying cry for rebellion against the British colonial authority, and the colonists
protested taxes on everything from stamps to tea. The American Revolution was as
much about economic democracy—the fundamental right of every individual to
participate in the economy and to own the fruits of labor—as it was about political
democracy.
In the United States, tax laws are written by Congress and therefore through
compromise. As views on government financing have changed, tax laws have been
amended and refined, enacted and repealed. The result is a tax code that can seem
overly complex and even unreasonable or illogical. However, the system is based on
logic and has a purpose. The better you understand the elements of the tax system,
the better you will understand how to live with it—and plan for it—to your best
advantage.
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Chapter 6 Taxes and Tax Planning
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Any government that needs to raise revenue and has the legal authority to do so
may tax. Tax jurisdictions reflect government authorities. In the United States,
federal, state, and municipal governments impose taxes. Similarly, in many
countries there are national, provincial or state, county, and municipal taxes.
Regional economic alliances, such as the European Union, may also levy taxes.
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Chapter 6 Taxes and Tax Planning
Figure 6.2 U.S. Income Tax Brackets in 2008 (Single Filing Status)
Source: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/tax_brackets.htm
A sales tax or consumption tax3 taxes the consumption financed by income. In the
United States, sales taxes are imposed by state or local governments; as yet, there is
no national sales tax. Sales taxes are said to be more efficient and fair in that
consumption reflects income (income determines ability to consume and therefore
level of consumption). Consumption also is hard to hide, making sales tax a good
3. A sales or excise tax that taxes
the consumption of way to collect taxes based on the ability to pay. Consumption taxes typically tax all
discretionary and consumption, including nondiscretionary items such as food, clothing, and housing.
nondiscretionary goods and Opponents of sales tax argue that it is a regressive tax4, because those with lower
services.
incomes must use a higher percentage of their incomes on nondiscretionary
4. A tax rate that decreases as the purchases than higher-income people do.
amount to be taxed increases.
5. A consumption tax that The value-added tax5 (VAT) or goods and services tax (GST) is widely used outside
spreads the tax burden among
producers and consumers by the United States. It is a consumption tax, but differs from the sales tax, which is
taxing the value added to paid only by the consumer as an end user. With a VAT or GST, the value added to
goods at each stage of the product is taxed at each stage of production. Governments use a VAT or GST
production and consumption.
instead of a sales tax to spread the tax burden among producers and consumers,
and thus to reduce incentive to evade the tax. A consumption tax, like the sales tax,
it is a regressive tax. When traveling abroad, you should be aware that a VAT may
add substantially to the cost of a purchase (a meal, accommodations, etc.).
Excise taxes6 are taxes on specific consumption items such as alcohol, cigarettes,
motor vehicles, fuel, or highway use. In some states, excise taxes are justified by the
discretionary nature of the purchases and may be criticized as exercises in social
engineering (i.e., using the tax code to dictate social behaviors). For example,
people addicted to nicotine or alcohol tend to purchase cigarettes or liquor even if
an excise tax increases their cost—and are therefore a reliable source of tax
revenue.
Estate taxes7 are taxes on the transfer of wealth from the deceased to the living.
Estate taxes are usually imposed on the very wealthiest based on their unusual
ability to pay. Because death and the subsequent dispersal of property is legally a
matter of public record, estate taxes are generally easy to collect. Estate taxes are
controversial because they can be seen as a tax on the very idea of ownership and
on incomes that have already been taxed and saved or stored as wealth and
properties. Still, estate taxes are a substantial source of revenue for the
governments that use them, and so they remain.
A summary of the kinds of taxes used by the three different jurisdictions is shown
in Figure 6.3 "Taxes and Jurisdictions".
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ Incomes from
▪ wages,
▪ interest, dividends, and gains (losses),
▪ rental of real or intellectual property.
◦ Consumption of discretionary and nondiscretionary goods
and services.
◦ Wealth from
▪ asset ownership,
▪ asset transfer after death.
• Taxes may be
EXERCISES
1. Examine your state, federal, and other tax returns that you filed last
year. Alternatively, estimate based on your present financial situation.
On what incomes were you (or would you be) taxed? What tax bracket
were you (or would you be) in? How did (or would) your state, federal,
and other tax liabilities differ? What other types of taxes did you (or
would you) pay and to which government jurisdictions?
◦ Description:
◦ Type of Tax:
1. Property tax
2. Consumption tax
3. Value-added or goods and services tax
4. Income tax
5. Excise tax
6. Sales tax
7. Estate tax
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Taxes/CutYourTaxes/
8typesOfIncomeTheIRScantTouch.aspx), what are eight sources of
income that the federal government cannot tax? Poll classmates on the
question of whether they think student income can be taxed. According
to the companion article “5 Tax Myths That Can Cost You Money” (Jeff
Schnepper, November 2009, at http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/
Taxes/AvoidAnAudit/5taxMythsThatCanCostYouMoney.aspx), is it true
that students often are exempt from income taxes?
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The U.S. government relies most on an income tax. The income tax is the most
relevant for personal financial planning, as everyone has some sort of income over
a lifetime. Most states model their tax systems on the federal model or base their
tax rates on federally defined income. While the estate tax may become more of a
concern as you age, the federal income tax system will affect you and your financial
decisions throughout your life.
Figure 6.4 "U.S. Individual Tax Form 1040, Page 1" shows an individual tax return,
U.S. Form 1040.
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Chapter 6 Taxes and Tax Planning
Taxable Entities
There are four taxable entities in the federal system: the individual or family unit,
the corporation, the nonprofit corporation, and the trust. Personal financial
planning focuses on your decisions as an individual or family unit, but other tax
entities can affect individual income. Corporate profit may be distributed to
individuals as a dividend8, for example, which then becomes the individual’s
taxable income. Likewise, funds established for a specific purpose may distribute
money to an individual that is taxable as individual income. A trust9, for example, is
a legal arrangement whereby control over property is transferred to a person or
organization (the trustee) for the benefit of someone else (the beneficiary). If you
were a beneficiary and received a distribution, that money would be taxable as
individual income.
8. A share of corporate profit
distributed to shareholders,
The definition of the taxable “individual” is determined by filing status:
usually as cash or corporate
stock.
Some taxes are levied differently depending on filing status, following the
assumption that family structure affects ability to pay taxes.
Interest income is income from selling liquidity. For example, the interest that your
savings account, certificates of deposit, and bonds earn in a year is income. You
essentially are earning interest from lending cash to a bank, a money market
mutual fund, a government, or a corporation (though not all your interest income
may be taxable). Dividend income, on the other hand, is income from investing in
the stock market. Dividends are your share of corporate profits as a shareholder,
distributed in proportion to the number of shares of corporate stock you own.
The tax laws distinguish between a business and a hobby that earns or loses money.
You are considered to have a business for tax purposes if you made a profit in three
of the past five years including the current year, or if you are operating as a
registered business with the intention of making a profit. If you are operating your
own business you also must also pay self-employment tax on business income. In
addition, the self-employed must pay estimated income taxes in quarterly
installments based on expected income.
Gains or losses from investments derive from changes in asset value during
ownership between the asset’s original cost and its market value at the time of sale.
If you sell an asset for more than you paid for it, you have a gain. If you sell an asset
for less than you paid for it, you have a loss. Recurring gains or losses from
investment are from returns on financial instruments such as stocks and bonds.
One-time gains or losses, such as the sale of a home, are also reported on Schedule
D.
The tax code distinguishes between assets held for a short time—less than one year,
and assets held for a long time—one year or more. Short-term capital gains or losses
are taxed at a different rate than long-term capital gains or losses (Figure 6.8
"Capital Gains Tax Rates"). When you invest in financial assets, such as stocks,
bonds, mutual funds, property, or equipment, be sure to keep good records by
noting the date when you bought them and the original price. These records
establish the cost basis10 of your investments, which is used to calculate your gain
or loss when you sell them.
Rental or royalty income is income earned from renting an asset, either real
property or a creative work such as a book or a song. This can be a primary source
of income, although many individuals rely on wages and have some rental or
royalty income on the side. Home ownership may be made more affordable, for
example, if the second half of a duplex can be rented for extra income. Rental
10. The original cost of an asset
that is used to calculate a gain expenses can also be deducted from rental income, which can create a loss from
(loss) upon sale of the asset. rental activity rather than a gain. Unlike a business, which must become profitable
to remain a business for tax purposes, rental activities may generate losses year
after year. Such losses are a tax advantage, as they reduce total income.
The partnership or S corporation is not a taxable entity, but the share of its profits
distributed to each owner is taxable income for the owner and must be declared on
Schedule E.
Farm income is income from growing food, livestock, or livestock products, such as
wool, to sell. Farmers have a special status in the tax code, stemming from the
original agricultural basis of the U.S. economy and the strategic importance of self-
sufficiency in food production. Thus, the tax code applies exemptions specifically to
farmers.
Other taxable income includes alimony, state or local tax refunds, retirement fund
distributions from individual retirement accounts (IRAs) and/or pensions,
unemployment compensation, and a portion of Social Security benefits.
Your total income is then adjusted for items that the government feels should not
be taxed under certain circumstances, such as certain expenses of educators,
performing artists, and military reservists; savings in health savings or retirement
accounts; moving expenses; a portion of self-employment taxes; student loan
interest; tuition and educational fees; and alimony paid. Income that is not taxed by
the U.S. government and does not have to be reported as income includes the
following:
• Welfare benefits
• Interest from most municipal bonds
• Most gifts
• Most inheritance and bequests
• Workers compensation
• Veteran’s benefits
• Federal tax refunds
It’s important to read tax filing instructions carefully, however, because not
everything you’d think would qualify actually does. The government allows
adjustments to be reported (or not reported) as income only under certain
circumstances or up to certain income limits, and some adjustments require special
forms.
Deductions, exemptions, and credits are some of the more disputed areas of the tax
code. Because of the depth of dispute about them, they tend to change more
frequently than other areas of the tax code. For example, in 2009, a credit was
added to encourage first-time homebuyers to purchase a home in the hopes of
stimulating the residential real estate market. As a taxpayer, you want to stay alert
to changes that may be to your advantage or disadvantage. Usually, such changes
are phased in and out gradually so you can include them in your financial planning
process.
Once you have calculated your tax obligation for the year, you can compare that to
any taxes you have paid during the year and calculate the amount still owed or the
amount to be refunded to you.
You pay taxes during the tax year by having them withheld from your paycheck if
you earn income through wages, or by making quarterly estimated tax payments if
you have other kinds of income. When you begin employment, you fill out a form
(Form W-4) that determines the taxes to be withheld from your regular pay. You
may adjust this amount, within limits, at any time. If you have both wages and
other incomes, but your wage income is your primary source of income, you may be
able to increase the taxes withheld from your wages to cover the taxes on your
other income, and thus avoid having to make estimated payments. However, if your
nonwage income is substantial, you will have to make estimated payments to avoid
a penalty and/or interest.
The government requires that taxes are withheld or paid quarterly during the tax
year because it uses tax revenues to finance its expenditures, so it needs a steady
and predictable cash flow. Steady payments also greatly decrease the risk of taxes
being uncollectible. State and local income taxes must also be paid during the tax
year and are similarly withheld from wages or paid quarterly.
Besides income taxes, other taxes are withheld from your wages: payments for
Social Security and Medicare. Social Security or the Federal Insurance
Contributions Act (FICA) and Medicare are federal government programs. Social
Security is insurance against loss of income due to retirement, disability, or loss of a
spouse or parent. Individuals are eligible for benefits based on their own
contributions—or their spouse’s or parents’—during their working lives, so
technically, the Social Security payment withheld from your current wages is not a
tax but a contribution to your own deferred income. Medicare finances health care
for the elderly. Both programs were designed to provide minimal benefits to those
no longer able to sell their labor in exchange for wage income. In fact, both Social
Security and Medicare function as “pay-as-you-go” systems, so your contributions
pay for benefits that current beneficiaries receive.
If you have paid more during the tax year than your
actual obligation, then you are due a refund of the Figure 6.11
difference. You may have that amount directly
deposited to a bank account, or the government will
send you a check.
If you have paid less during the tax year than your
actual obligation, then you will have to pay the
difference (by check or credit card) and you may have to
pay a penalty and/or interest, depending on the size of © 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
your payment.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• The most relevant tax for financial planning is the income tax, as it
affects the taxpayer over an entire lifetime.
• Different kinds of income must be defined and declared on specific
income schedules and are subject to tax.
• Deductions and exemptions reduce taxable income.
• Credits reduce tax obligations.
• Payments are made throughout the tax year through withholding from
wages or through quarterly payments.
EXERCISES
◦ Schedules A: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040sa.pdf
◦ Schedules B: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040sb.pdf
◦ Schedule C: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040sc.pdf
◦ Schedule D: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040sd.pdf
◦ Schedule E: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040se.pdf
◦ Schedule F: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040sf.pdf
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The Internal Revenue Code (IRC), the federal tax law, is written by the U.S. Congress
and enforced by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), which is a part of the U.S.
Department of Treasury. The IRS is responsible for the collection of tax revenues.
To collect revenues, the IRS must inform the public of tax obligations and devise
data collection systems that will allow for collection and verification of tax
information so that collectible revenues can be verified. In other words, the IRS has
to figure out how to inform the public and collect taxes while also collecting enough
information to be able to check that those taxes are correct.
To inform the public, the IRS has published over six hundred separate publications
covering various aspects of the tax code. There are more than a thousand forms and
accompanying instructions to file complete tax information, although most
taxpayers actually file about half a dozen forms each year. In addition, the IRS
provides a Web site (http://www.irs.gov) and telephone support to answer
questions and assist in preparing tax filings.
By far, most income taxes from wages are collected through withholding as earned.
For most taxpayers, wages represent the primary form of income, and thus most of
their tax payments are withheld or paid as wages are earned. Still, everyone has to
file to summarize the details of the year’s incomes for the IRS and to calculate the
final tax obligation. In 2007, the IRS collected 138,893,908 individual returns
representing $1.367 trillion of tax revenue.Statistics of Income Division and Other
Areas of the Internal Revenue Service, http://www.irs.gov/taxstats (accessed
January 19, 2009).
Keeping Records
The individual filer must collect and report the information on tax forms and
schedules. Fortunately, this is not as difficult as the volume of data would suggest.
Employers are required to send Form W-2 to each employee at the end of the year,
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Chapter 6 Taxes and Tax Planning
detailing the total wages earned and taxes and contributions withheld. If you have
earned other kinds of income, your clients, customers, retirement fund, or other
source of income may have to file a Form 1099 to report that income to you and to
the IRS. Interest and dividend income is also reported by the bank or brokerage
firm on Form 1099. The W-2 and the Form 1099 are reported to both the IRS and
you.
The system for filing tax information has purposeful redundancies. Where possible,
information is collected independently from at least two sources, so it can be
verified. For example, your wage data is collected both from you and from your
employer, your interest and dividend incomes are reported by both you and the
bank or brokerage that paid them, and so on. Those redundancies, wherever
practical, allow for a system of cross-references so that the IRS can check the
validity of the data it receives.
After you have collected the information you need, you fill out the forms. The tax
code is based on the idea that citizens should create revenues for the government
based on their ability to pay—and the tax forms follow that logic. Most taxpayers
need to complete only a few schedules and forms to supplement their Form 1040 (or
1040 EZ). Most taxpayers have the same kinds of taxable events, incomes, and
deductions year after year and file the same kinds of schedules and forms.
Many tax preparation software packages are available, and many are reviewed in
the business press or online. Some popular programs include the following (see
http://tax-software- review.toptenreviews.com):
• Turbo Tax
• Tax Cut
• Tax
• ACT
• Complete Tax
• TaxSlayer Premium
• TaxBrain 1040 Deluxe
• OLT Online Taxes
Following Up
After you file your tax return it will be processed and reviewed by the IRS. If you are
owed a refund, it will be sent; if you paid a payment, it will be deposited. The IRS
reviews returns for accuracy, based on redundant reporting and its “sense” of your
data. For example, the IRS may investigate any discrepancies between the wages
you report and the wages your employer reports. As another example, if your total
wages are $23,000 and you show a charitable contribution of $20,000, that
contribution seems too high for your income—although there may be an
explanation.
The IRS may follow up by mail or by a personal interview. It may just ask for
verification of one or two items, or it may conduct a full audit11—a thorough
financial investigation of your return. In any case, you will be asked to produce
records or receipts that will verify your reported data. Therefore, it is important to
save a copy of your return and the records and receipts that you used to prepare it.
The IRS has the following recommendations for the number of years to save your
tax data:
1. If you owe additional tax and situations 2, 3, and 4 below do not apply
to you, keep records for three years.
2. If you do not report income that you should report, and it is more than
25 percent of the gross income shown on your return, keep records for
six years.
3. If you file a fraudulent return, keep records indefinitely.
4. If you do not file a return, keep records indefinitely.
5. If you file a claim for credit or refund after you file your return, keep
records for three years from the date you filed your original return or
two years from the date you paid the tax, whichever is later.
6. If you file a claim for a loss from worthless securities or bad debt
deduction, keep records for seven years.
7. Keep all employment tax records for at least four years after the date
that the tax becomes due or is paid, whichever is later.
If you have a personal interview, your tax preparer may accompany you to help
explain and verify your return. Ultimately, however, you are responsible for it. If
you have made errors, and if those errors result in a larger tax obligation (if you
owe more), you may have to pay penalties and interest in addition to the tax you
owe. You may be able to negotiate a payment schedule with the IRS.
The IRS randomly chooses a certain number of returns each year for review and
possible audit even where no discrepancies or unusual items are noticed. The threat
of a random audit may deter taxpayers from cheating or taking shortcuts on their
tax returns. Computerized record keeping has made it easier for both taxpayers and
the IRS to collect, report, and verify tax data.
Filing Strategies
Most citizens recognize the need to contribute to the government’s revenues but
want to avoid paying more than they need to. Tax avoidance12 is the practice of
ensuring that you have no excess tax obligations. Strategies for minimizing or
avoiding tax obligations are perfectly legal. However, tax evasion13—fraudulently
reporting tax obligations, for example, by understating incomes and gains or
overstating expenses and losses—is illegal.
Timing can affect the value of taxable incomes or deductibles expenses. If you
anticipate a significant increase in income—and therefore in your tax rate—in the
next tax year, you may try to defer a deductible expense. When you have more
income and it is taxed at a higher rate, a deductible expense may be worth more as
a tax savings to offset your income. For example, if your tax rate is 20 percent and
your deductible expense of $100 saves you from paying taxes on $100, then it saves
you $20 in taxes. If your tax rate is 35 percent, that same $100 deductible saves you
$35. Likewise, if you anticipate a decrease in income that will decrease your tax
rate, you may want to defer receipt of income until the next year when it will be
taxed at a lower rate. In addition, some kinds of incomes are taxed at different rates
than others, so how your income is created may bear on how much tax it creates.
They may be both, but you can only claim the expense
once or in one place on your tax return. If you claim it as an employment-related
expense, your ability to deduct the cost may be limited, but if it is a cost of your
12. The legal attempt to minimize tutoring business, you may be able to fully expense it from your business income.
tax obligations.
13. The illegal attempt to report An income that is not taxed or taxed at a lower rate is more valuable than an
financial information income that is taxed or taxed at a higher rate. An expense that is fully deductible is
fraudulently to minimize tax
more valuable than an expense that is not. Taxes deferred—by delaying income or
obligations.
accelerating expense—create more liquidity and thus more value. However, taxable
income is still income, and a deductible expense is still an expense. Tax
consequences should not obscure the benefits of enjoying income and the costs of
incurring expenses.
There are many ideas about how to avoid an audit or what will trigger one: certain
kinds of incomes or expenses, or filing earlier or later, for example. In truth, with
the increased sophistication of computerization, the review process is much better
at noticing real discrepancies and at choosing audits randomly. Time and effort
(and cost) invested in outsmarting a possible audit is usually wasted. The best
protection against a possible audit is to have verification—a receipt or a bill or a
canceled check—for all the incomes and expenses that you report.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
1. Read the article “Policy Basics: Where Do Our Federal Tax Dollars Go”
(Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, April 13, 2009) at
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=1258. In 2008, what
were the federal government’s three largest expenditures of tax dollars?
According to the IRS.gov article “Tips for Choosing a Tax Preparer” at
http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=251962,00.html, when
should you look for in a professional tax preparation service provider,
and what fees should you avoid paying?
2. Gather a current sample of the kind of records you will use to calculate
your tax liability this year and to verify your tax return. List each type of
record and identify exactly what information it will give you, your tax
preparer, and the IRS about your tax situation. What additional records
will you need that are not yet in your possession?
3. Compare and contrast tax preparation software at sites such as
http://financialplan.about.com/od/software/tp/TPTaxSoftware.htm
and http://www.consumersearch.com/tax-preparation-software/
reviews. What are the chief differences among the top three or four
programs? Also check out the IRS Free File program at
http://www.irs.gov/efile. Would you quality for Free File?
4. Use your spreadsheet program, or download a free one, to develop a
document showing monthly cash flows for income and expenses to date
for which you have written records. If you continue to develop this
document for the remaining months, how will it help you prepare your
tax returns?
5. Research how can you reduce your tax liability and/or avoid paying
taxes when you file this year. Work with classmates to develop a tip
sheet for students on tax avoidance.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Tax obligations change more broadly as your stage of life changes. Although
everyone is different, there is a typical pattern to aging, earning, and taxes, as
shown in Figure 6.15 "Life Stages and Tax Implications".
In young adulthood, you rely on income from wages, and you usually have yet to
acquire an asset base, so you have little income from interest, dividends, or capital
gains. Your family structure does not include dependents, so you have few
deductions but also low taxable income.
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Chapter 6 Taxes and Tax Planning
As you progress in your career, you can expect wages, expenses, and dependents to
increase. You are building an asset base by buying a home, possibly saving for your
children’s education, or saving for retirement. Because those are the kinds of assets
encouraged by the government, they not only build wealth but also create tax
advantages—the mortgage interest deduction, retirement, or education savings
exemption.
The bigger picture is that at the stages of your life when income is increasing, so are
your deductions and exemptions, which tend to decrease as your income decreases.
Although your incomes change over your lifetime, you tax obligations change
proportionally, so they remain relative to your ability to pay.
The tax consequences of such changes should be anticipated and considered as you
evaluate choices for financial strategies. Because the tax code is a matter of law it
does change, but because it is also a matter of politics, it changes slowly and only
after much public discussion. You can usually be aware of any tax code changes far
enough in advance to incorporate them into your planning.
Tax advantages are sometimes created for personal financial strategies as a way of
encouraging certain personal goals. In the United States, as in most developed
economies, certain goals such as home ownership, retirement savings, and
education and health financing are seen as personal goals that benefit society as
well as the individual.
In most cases, tax advantages are created to encourage progress toward those goals.
For example, most people can buy a home only if they can use debt financing, which
creates added costs. So mortgage interest, that added cost, is tax deductible (up to a
limit) to make home financing and therefore home ownership more affordable and
attractive.
deduction, for example. However, if you are buying a home, you can plan to do so in
the most tax-advantageous way.
As Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr., said, “Taxes are what we pay
for a civilized society.”U.S. Department of the Treasury, http://www.treas.gov/
education/faq/taxes/taxes-society.shtml (accessed January 19, 2009). Like any
costs, you want to minimize your tax costs of living and of life events, but tax
avoidance is only a means to an end. You should make your life choices for better
reasons than avoiding taxes.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Tax strategies may change as life stages and family structure changes.
• Some personal finance goals may be pursued in a more or less tax-
advantaged way, so you should evaluate the tax effects on your
alternatives.
• Tax strategies are a means to an end, that is, to achieve your personal
finance goals with a minimum of cost.
EXERCISES
1. Review your list of personal financial goals. For each goal, how does the
U.S. Tax Code help or hinder you in achieving it?
2. Investigate tax strategies that would benefit you in your present life
stage. Begin your online research at this comprehensive list of tax links:
http://www.el.com/elinks/taxes/. What tax strategies would benefit
you in your next life stage? Share your findings and strategies with
others in your life stage.
3. What does Benjamin Franklin mean in the following quote about
taxation? What advice is implied and how would you apply that advice
to your financial planning?
“Friends and neighbors complain that taxes are indeed very heavy, and if
those laid on by the government were the only ones we had to pay, we might
the more easily discharge them; but we have many others, and much more
grievous to some of us. We are taxed twice as much by our idleness, three
times as much by our pride, and four times as much by our folly.”
Introduction
You can use your own money as a source of financing if your income is at least
equal to your living expenses. If it is more, you have a budget surplus that can be
saved and used as a source of future financing while earning income at the same
time. If your own income is less than the expenses, you have a budget deficit that
will require another external source of financing—someone else’s money—that will
add an expense. Ideally, you want to avoid the additional expense of borrowing and
instead create the additional income from saving. The budgeting techniques
discussed in Chapter 5 "Financial Plans: Budgets" are helpful in seeing this picture
more clearly.
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Chapter 7 Financial Management
Financial management decisions become more complicated when the personal and
macroeconomic factors become part of the decision process, but the result is a more
realistic evaluation of alternatives and a better strategy that leaves more choices
open in the future. Financial management decisions, however, are difficult not
because of their complexity, but because the way you can finance your assets and
expenses (i.e., lifestyle) determines the life that you live. The stakes are high.
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Chapter 7 Financial Management
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Identify the cash flows and instruments used to manage income deposits
and expense payments.
2. Explain the purpose of check balancing.
Most people use a checking account1 as their primary means of managing cash
flows for daily living. Incomes from wages and perhaps from investments are
deposited to this account, and expenses are paid from it. The actual deposit of
paychecks and writing of checks, however, has been made somewhat obsolete as
more cash flow services are provided electronically.
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and the bank’s are up to date. Banks do make mistakes, and so do you, so it is
important to check and be sure that the bank’s version of events agrees with yours.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• A checking account is the primary cash flow management tool for most
consumers, providing a way to pay for expenses and store cash until it is
needed.
• Balancing your checkbook reconciles your personal records with the
bank’s records of your checking account activity.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
When incomes are larger than expenses, there is a budget surplus, and that surplus
can be saved. You could keep it in your possession and store it for future use, but
then you have the burden of protecting it from theft or damage. More important,
you create an opportunity cost. Because money trades in markets and liquidity has
value, your alternative is to lend that liquidity to someone who wants it more than
you do at the moment and is willing to pay for its use. Money sitting idle is an
opportunity cost.
The price that you can get for your money has to do with supply and demand for
liquidity in the market, which in turn has to do with a host of other macroeconomic
factors. It also has a lot to do with time, opportunity cost, and risk. If you are willing
to lend your liquidity for a long time, then the borrower has more possible uses for
it, and increased mobility increases its value. However, while the borrower has
more opportunity, you (the seller) have more opportunity cost because you give up
more choices over a longer period of time. That also creates more risk for you, since
more can happen over a longer period of time. The longer you lend your liquidity,
the more compensation you need for your increased opportunity cost and risk.
Savings Markets
The markets for liquidity are referred to as the money markets6 and the capital
markets7. The money markets are used for relatively short-term, low-risk trading
of money, whereas the capital markets are used for relatively long-term, higher-
risk trading of money. The different time horizons and risk tolerances of the
buyers, and especially the sellers, in each market create different ways of trading or
packaging liquidity.
6. A market where short-term When individuals are saving or investing for a long-term goal (e.g., education or
liquidity is traded. retirement) they are more likely to use the capital markets; their longer time
7. A market where long-term horizon allows for greater use of risk to earn return. Saving to finance consumption
liquidity is traded. relies more on trading liquidity in the money markets, because there is usually a
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Chapter 7 Financial Management
shorter horizon for the use of the money. Also, most individuals are less willing to
assume opportunity costs and risks when it comes to consumption, thus limiting
the time that they are willing to lend liquidity.
When you save, you are the seller or lender of liquidity. When you use someone
else’s money or when you borrow, you are the buyer of liquidity.
Savings Institutions
For most individuals, access to the money markets is done through a bank. A bank
functions as an intermediary8 or “middleman” between the individual lender of
money (the saver) and the individual borrower of money.
For the saver or lender, the bank can offer the convenience of finding and screening
the borrowers, and of managing the loan repayments. Most important, a bank can
guarantee the lender a return: the bank assumes the risk of lending. For the
borrowers, the bank can create a steady supply of surplus money for loans (from
the lenders), and arrange standard loan terms for the borrowers.
Banks create other advantages for both lenders and borrowers. Intermediation
allows for the amounts loaned or borrowed to be flexible and for the maturity of the
loans to vary. That is, you don’t have to lend exactly the amount someone wants to
borrow for exactly the time she or he wants to borrow it. The bank can
“disconnect” the lender and borrower, creating that flexibility. By having many
lenders and many borrowers, the bank diversifies the supply of and demand for
money, and thus lowers the overall risk in the money market.
The bank can also develop expertise in screening borrowers to minimize risk and in
managing and collecting the loan payments. In turn, that reduced risk allows the
bank to attract lenders and diversify supply. Through diversification and expertise,
banks ultimately lower the cost of lending and borrowing liquidity. Since they
create value in the market (by lowering costs), banks remain as intermediaries or
middlemen in the money markets.
There are different kinds of banks based on what kind of brokering of money the
bank does. Those differences have become less distinct as the banking industry
consolidates and strives to offer more universal services. In the last generation,
8. A third party that facilitates decreasing bank regulation, increasing globalization, and technology have all
trade between two parties. In contributed to that trend. Different kinds of banks are listed below.
financial services, a bank is an
intermediary between lenders
and borrowers. • Retail banks have focused on consumer saving and borrowing.
Retail banks are commonly known as thrift institutions, savings banks, savings and
loan associations, or mutual savings banks and are usually private or public
corporations. Credit unions9 function similarly, but are cooperative membership
organizations, with depositors as members.
In addition to banks, other kinds of intermediaries for savers include pension funds,
life insurance companies, and investment funds. They focus on saving for a
particular long-term goal. To finance consumption, however, most individuals
primarily use banks.
Some intermediaries have moved away from the “bricks-and-mortar” branch model
and now operate as online banks, either entirely or in part. There are cost
advantages for the bank if it can use online technologies in processing saving and
lending. Those cost savings can be passed along to savers in the form of higher
returns on savings accounts or lower service fees. Most banks offer online and,
increasingly, mobile account access, via cell phone or smartphone. Intermediaries
operating as finance companies offer similar services.
Because their role as intermediaries is critical to the flow of funds, banks are
regulated by federal and state governments. Since the bank failures of the Great
Depression, bank deposits are federally insured (up to $250,000) through the FDIC
(Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation). Since the financial crisis of 2007–2009,
bank money market funds also are insured. Credit union accounts are similarly
insured by the National Credit Union Agency or NCUA, also an independent federal
agency. In choosing an intermediary, savers should make sure that accounts are
FDIC or NCUA insured.
Saving Instruments
Banks offer many different ways to save your money until you use it for
consumption. The primary difference among the accounts offered to you is the
price that your liquidity earns, or the compensation for your opportunity cost and
9. A retail banking institution
that is either depositor- or risk, which in turn depends on the degree of liquidity that you are willing to give
member-owned. Membership up. You give up more liquidity when you agree to commit to a minimum time or
is usually defined and limited amount of money to save or lend.
to affiliation with a particular
group—for example, state or
union employees, or a religious
or social affiliation.
Compared to the capital markets, the money markets have very little risk, so
MMMFs are considered very low-risk investments. The trade-offs between liquidity
and return are seen in Figure 7.3 "Savings Products versus Liquidity and Risk".
As long as your money remains in your account, including any interest earned while
it is there, you earn interest on that money. If you do not withdraw the interest
from your account, it is added to your principal balance, and you earn interest on
both. This is referred to as earning interest on interest, or compounding. The rate
at which your principal compounds is the annual percentage rate (APR)14 that
your account earns.
You can calculate the eventual value of your account by using the relationships of
time and value that we looked at in Chapter 4 "Evaluating Choices: Time, Risk, and
Value"—that is,
FV = PV × (1 + r)t ,
where FV = future value, PV = present value, r = rate, and t = time. The balance in
your account today is your present value, PV; the APR is your rate of compounding,
r; the time until you will withdraw your funds is t. Your future value depends on the
rate at which you can earn a return or the rate of compounding for your present
account.
If you are depositing a certain amount each month or with each paycheck, that
stream of cash flows is an annuity. You can use the annuity relationships discussed
in Chapter 4 "Evaluating Choices: Time, Risk, and Value" to project how much the
14. The annual rate of interest on
account will be worth at any point in time, given the rate at which it compounds.
credit or debt.
Many financial calculators—both online and handheld—can help you make those
calculations.
Ideally, you would choose a bank’s savings instrument that offers the highest APR
and most frequent compounding. However, interest rates change, and banks with
savings plans that offer higher yields often require a minimum deposit, minimum
balance, and/or a maintenance fee. Also, your interest from savings is taxable, as it
is considered income. As you can imagine, however, with monthly automatic
deposits into a savings account with compounding interest, you can see your wealth
can grow safely.
Savings Strategies
Your choice of savings instrument should reflect your liquidity needs. In the money
markets, all such instruments are relatively low risk, so return will be determined
by opportunity cost.
You do not want to give up too much liquidity and then risk being caught short,
because then you will have to become a borrower to make up that shortfall, which
will create additional costs. If you cannot predict your liquidity needs or you know
they are immediate, you should choose products that will least restrict your
liquidity choices. If your liquidity needs are more predictable or longer term, you
can give up liquidity without creating unnecessary risk and can therefore take
advantage of products, such as CDs, that will pay a higher price.
A laddering strategy can also reflect expectations of interest rates. If you believe
that interest rates or the earnings on your money will increase, then you don’t want
to commit to the currently offered rates for too long. Your laddering strategy may
involve a series of relatively short-term (less than one year) instruments. On the
other hand, if you expect interest rates to fall, you would want to weight your
laddering strategy to longer-term CDs, keeping only your minimum liquidity
requirement in the shorter-term CDs.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Banks serve to provide the consumer with excess cash by having the
cash earn money through savings until the consumer needs it.
• Banking institutions include retail, commercial, and investments banks.
◦ Savings banks
◦ Mutual savings banks
◦ Savings and loan associations
◦ Credit unions
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
“Credit” derives from the Latin verb credere (to believe). It has several meanings as a
verb in common usage—to recognize with respect, to acknowledge a
contribution—but in finance, it generally means to allow delayed payment.
Both credit and debt are forms of borrowing. Credit is distinguished from debt in
both its purpose and duration or timing, although in casual conversation the words
are used interchangeably. Credit is used to purchase goods and services, to finance
living expenses, or to make payments more convenient by delaying them for a
relatively short time. Debt, on the other hand, is used to finance the purchase of
assets—such as a car or a home—rather than to delay payment of recurring
expenses.
The costs of credit and of debt are likewise different, given their different uses and
time horizons. Often, people get into some trouble when they cannot distinguish
between the two and choose the wrong form of financing at the wrong time. Figure
7.6 "Credit versus Debt" distinguishes credit from debt.
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Chapter 7 Financial Management
Kinds of Credit
Installment credit is an older form of credit that became popular for the purchase
of consumer durables (i.e., furniture, appliances, electronics, or household items)
after the First World War. This form of credit expanded as mass production and
invention made consumer durables such as radios and refrigerators widely
available. (Longer-term installment purchases for bigger-ticket assets, such as a car
or property, are considered debt.)
Revolving credit17 extends the ability to delay payment for different items from
different vendors up to a certain limit. Such credit is lent by a bank or finance
company, typically through a charge card18 or a credit card19. The charge card
balance must be paid in full in each period or credit cycle20, while the credit card
balance may not be, requiring only a minimum payment.
The credit card is a more recent form of credit, as its use became widely practical
only with the development of computing technology. The first charge card was the
15. A form of credit used to Diners’ Club card, issued in 1950. The first credit card was the Bank Americard (now
purchase consumer durables,
usually issued by one vendor called Visa), issued by Bank of America in 1958, which was later followed by
for one item. MasterCard in 1966. Retailers can also issue revolving credit (e.g., a store account or
credit card) to encourage purchases.
16. The risk that a borrower will
not be able to meet interest
obligations or principal
repayment.
Credit cards are used for convenience and security. Merchants worldwide accept
credit cards as a method of payment because the issuer (the bank or finance
17. A form of credit used to company) has assumed the default risk by guaranteeing the merchants’ payment.
purchase consumer durables
issued by a bank of finance
Use of a credit card abroad also allows consumers to incur less transaction cost.
company to purchase many
items from many vendors.
This universal acceptance allows a consumer to rely less on cash, so consumers can
18. Revolving credit that must be carry less cash, which therefore is less likely to be lost or stolen. Credit card
periodically paid in full.
payments also create a record of purchases, which is convenient for later record
19. Revolving credit that may not keeping. When banks and finance companies compete to issue credit, they often
be paid in full, creating an offer gifts or rewards to encourage purchases.
interest expense.
Costs of Credit
Because consumer credit is all relatively short term, its cost is driven more by risk
than by opportunity cost, which is the risk of default or the risk that you will fail to
repay with the amounts advanced to you. The riskier the borrower seems to be, the
fewer the sources of credit. The fewer sources of credit available to a borrower, the
more credit will cost.
In the United States, there are currently three major credit rating agencies:
Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion. Each calculates your score a bit differently, but
the process is common. They assign a numerical value to five characteristics of your
financial life and then compile a weighted average score. Scores range from 300 to
900; the higher your score, the less risky you appear to be. The five factors that
determine your credit score are
The rating agencies give your payment history the most weight, because it indicates
your risk of future defaults. Do you pay your debts? How often have you defaulted
in the past?
The credit available to you is reflected in the amounts you currently owe or the
credit limits on your current accounts. These show how dependent you are on
credit and whether or not you are able to take on more credit. Generally, your
outstanding credit balances should be no more than 25 percent of your available
credit.
You should know your credit score. Even if you haven’t applied for new credit, you
should check on it annually. Each of the three agencies is required to provide your
score once a year for free and to correct any errors that appear—and they do—in a
timely way. If you should find an error in your report, you should contact the
agency immediately and follow up until the report is corrected.
Order your free annual credit report from the three credit reporting agencies at
https://www.annualcreditreport.com/cra/index.jsp. (Beware of any other Web
sites called “annual credit report” as these may be impostors.) It is important to
check your score regularly to check for those errors. Knowing your score can help
you to make financing decisions because it can help you to determine your
potential costs of credit. It can also alert you to any credit or identity theft of which
you otherwise are unaware.
The best protection is to be careful how you give out public information.
Convenience encourages more and more transactions by telephone and Internet,
but you still need to be sure of whom you are talking to before giving out
identifying data.
As careful as you are, you cannot protect yourself completely. However, checking
your credit report regularly can flag any unfamiliar or unusual activity carried out
in your name. If you suspect that your personal information has been breached, you
can ask the credit reporting agencies to issue a fraud alert. Fraud alert messages
notify potential credit grantors to verify your identification by contacting you
before extending credit in your name in case someone is using your information
without your consent. That way, if a thief is using your credit to establish new
accounts (or buy a home, a car, or a boat) you will know it. If a stronger measure is
needed, you can order a credit freeze that will prevent anyone other than yourself
from accessing your credit file.
23. A fraud that occurs when the
identity is used to access or
create accounts for financial
Using a Credit Card
gain.
credit purchase or “charge” and the time of payment, assuming your beginning
balance is zero. If you pay before interest is applied, you are using someone else’s
money to make your purchases at no additional cost. In that case, you are using the
credit simply as a cash management tool.
Credit cards are effective as a cash management tool. They can be safer to use than
cash, especially for purchasing pricier items. Payment for many items can be
consolidated and made monthly, with the credit card statement providing a
detailed record of purchases. If you carry more than one card, you might use them
for different purposes. For example, you might use one card for personal purchases
and another for work-related expenses. Credit cards also make it convenient to buy
on impulse, which may cause problems.
Problems arise if you go beyond using your card as a cash management tool and use
it to extend credit or to finance your purchases past the payment deadline. At that
point, interest charges begin to accrue. Typically, that interest is
expensive—perhaps only a few percentage points per month, but compounding to a
large annual percentage rate (APR).
Credit card APRs today may start with 0 percent for introductory offers and range
from 8.75 percent to more than 20 percent. These rates may be fixed or variable,
but in any case, when you carry a balance from month to month, this high interest
is added to what you owe.
As an example, if your credit card charges interest of 1.5 percent per month, that
may not sound like much, but it is an annual percentage rate of 18 percent (1.5% per
month × 12 months per year). To put that in perspective, remember that your
savings account is probably earning only around 1 to 3 percent per year. Consumer
credit thus is an expensive way to finance consumption. Consumers tend to rely on
their cards when they need things and lack the cash, and this can quickly lead to
credit card debt.
According to recent surveys, 41 percent of college students have a credit card, and
of those, about 65 percent pay their bills in full every month. This is higher than the
general adult population, and fewer than half of U.S. families carry credit card
debt.Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, February 2009,
http://www.federalreserve.gov/PUBS/oss/oss2/scfindex.html (accessed February
11, 2009). Among the 35 percent of college students with credit cards who do not
pay their balances in full every month, the average balance is $452.Student Monitor
annual financial services study, 2008.
You should shop around for credit just as you would shop around for anything that
you might purchase with it: compare the features and the costs of each credit card.
Features of the credit include the credit limit (or how much credit will be
extended), the grace period, purchase guarantees, liability limits, and consumer
rewards. Some cards offer a guarantee for purchases; if you purchase a defective
item, you can have the charge “stopped” and removed from your credit card bill.
Liability limits involve your responsibilities should your card be lost or stolen.
Creditors charge fees for extending credit. There is the APR on your actual credit,
which may be a fixed or adjustable rate. It may be adjustable based on the age of
your balance—that is, the rate may rise if your balance is over sixty days or ninety
days. There may also be a late fee charged in addition to the actual interest. The
APR may also adjust as your balance increases, so that even if you stay within your
credit limit, you are paying a higher rate of interest on a larger balance.
There are also fees on cash advances and on balance transfers (i.e., having other
credit balances transferred to this creditor). These can be higher than the APR and
can add a lot to the cost of those services. You should be aware of those costs when
making choices. For example, it can be much cheaper to withdraw cash from an
ATM using your bank account’s debit card than using a cash advance from your
credit card.
Many credit cards charge an annual fee just for having the credit card, regardless of
how much it is used. Many do not, however, and it is worth looking for a card that
offers the features that you want with no annual fee.
How you will use the credit card will determine which features are important to you
and what costs you will have to pay to get them. If you plan to use the credit card as
a cash management tool and pay your balance every month, then you are less
concerned with the APR and more concerned about the annual fee, or the cash
advance charges. If you sometimes carry a balance, then you are more concerned
with the APR.
Installment Credit
Personal Loans
Aside from installment credit and rotating credit, another source of consumer
credit is a short-term personal loan arranged through a bank or finance company.
Personal loans used as credit are all-purpose loans that may be “unsecured”—that
is, nothing is offered as collateral—or “secured.” Personal loans used as debt
financing are discussed in the next section. Personal loans used as credit are often
costly and difficult to secure, depending on the size of the loan and the bank’s risks
and costs (screening and paperwork).
A personal loan may also be made by a private financier who holds personal
property as collateral, such as a pawnbroker in a pawnshop. Typically, such loans
are costly, usually result in the loss of the property, and are used by desperate
borrowers with no other sources of credit. Today, many “financiers” offer personal
loans online at very high interest rates with no questions asked to consumers with
bad credit. This is a contemporary form of “loan sharking,” or the practice of
charging a very high and possibly illegal interest rate on an unsecured personal
loan. Some loan sharks have been known to use threats of harm to collect what is
owed.
One form of high-tech loan sharking growing in popularity on the Internet today is
the “payday loan25,” which offers very short-term small personal loans at high
interest rates. The amount you borrow, usually between $500 and $1,500, is directly
deposited into your checking account overnight, but you must repay the loan with
interest on your next payday. The loan thus acts as an advance payment of your
wages or salary, so when your paycheck arrives, you have already spent a large
portion of it, and maybe even more because of the interest you have to pay. As you
can imagine, many victims of repeated payday loans fall behind in their payments,
cannot meet their fixed living expenses on time, and end up ever deeper in debt.
Personal loans are the most expensive way to finance recurring expenses, and
almost always create more expense and risk—both financial and personal—for the
borrower.
As easy as it is to use credit, it is even easier to get into trouble with it. Because of
late fees and compounding interest, if you don’t pay your balance in full each
month, it quickly multiplies and becomes more difficult to pay. It doesn’t take long
for the debt to overwhelm you.
If that should happen to you, the first thing to do is to try to devise a realistic
budget that includes a plan to pay off the balance. Contact your creditors and
explain that you are having financial difficulties and that you have a plan to make
your payments. Don’t wait for the creditor to turn your account over to a debt
collector; be proactive in trying to resolve the debt. If your account has been turned
over to a collector, you do have some protections: the Fair Debt Collection Practices
(federal) law keeps a collector from calling you at work, for example, or after 9 p.m.
more than creditors trying to sell you more credit, however, so be careful about
checking their credentials before you agree to any plan. What you need is more
realistic credit, not more credit.
As a last resort, you may file for personal bankruptcy, which may relieve you of
some of your debts, but will blemish your credit rating for ten years, making it very
difficult—and expensive—for you to use any kind of credit or debt. Federal
bankruptcy laws allow you to file under Chapter 7 or under Chapter 13. Each allows
you to keep some assets, and each holds you to some debts. Chapter 7 requires
liquidation of most of your assets, while Chapter 13 applies if you have some
income. It gets complicated, and you will want legal assistance, which may be
provided by your local Legal Aid Society. The effects of a bankruptcy can last longer
than your debts would have, however, so it should never be seen as an “out” but
really as a last resort.
Modern laws and regulations governing the extension and use of credit and debt try
to balance protection of the lender and of the borrower. They try to insure that
credit or debt is used for economic purposes and not to further social or political
goals. They try to balance borrowers’ access to credit and debt as tools of financial
management with the rights of property owners (lenders).
In the United States, federal legislation reflects this balance of concerns. Major
federal legislation in the United States is shown in Figure 7.10 "Major U.S. Federal
Legislation: Credit and Debt".
In addition, many states have their own legislation and oversight. Not
coincidentally, most of these laws were written after use of credit cards, and thus
credit, became widespread. The set of laws and regulations that governs banking,
credit, and debt markets has evolved over time as new practices for trading money
are invented and new rules are seen as necessary. You should be aware of the
limitations on your own behavior and on others as you trade in these markets.
If you feel that your legal rights as a borrower or lender have been ignored and that
the offender has not responded to your direct, written notice, there are local, state,
and national agencies and organizations for assistance. There are also organizations
that help borrowers manage credit and debt.
Laws and regulations can govern how we behave in the credit and debt markets, but
not whether we choose to participate as a lender or as a borrower: whether we use
credit to manage cash flow or to finance a lifestyle, whether we use debt to finance
assets or lifestyle, and whether we save. Laws and regulations can protect us from
each other, but they cannot protect us from ourselves.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ Credit limit
◦ Grace period
◦ Purchase guarantees
◦ Liability limits
◦ Consumer rewards
◦ Renegotiation
◦ Debt consolidation
◦ Debt management
◦ Bankruptcy
• Modern laws governing the uses of credit and debt try to balance
protection of borrowers and lenders.
EXERCISES
5. What is your credit rating or credit score? Apply for your three
credit reports from Equifax (http://www.equifax.com),
TransUnion (http://www.transunion.com), and Experian
(http://www.experian.com). You can apply for all three at once
from one source for free once each year, at
https://www.annualcreditreport.com/. To ensure that you go to
the legitimate site, type this URL directly into the address bar in
your browser window.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Debt is long-term credit, or the ability to delay payment over several periods. Credit
is used for short-term, recurring expenses, whereas debt is used to finance the
purchase of long-term assets. Credit is a cash management tool used to create
security and convenience, whereas debt is an asset management tool used to create
wealth. Debt also creates risk.
Two most common uses of debt by consumers are car loans and mortgages. They
are discussed much more thoroughly in Chapter 8 "Consumer Strategies" and
Chapter 9 "Buying a Home". Before you get into the specifics, however, it is good to
know some general ideas about debt.
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Chapter 7 Financial Management
Costs of Debt
Default Risk
Capacity represents your ability to repay by comparing the size of your proposed
debt obligations to the size of your income, expenses, and current obligations. The
larger your income is in relation to your obligations, the more likely it is that you
are able to meet those obligations.
Capital is your wealth or asset base. You use your income to meet your debt
payments, but you could use your asset base or accumulated wealth as well if your
26. The risk that a bond’s market income falls short. Also, you can use your asset base as collateral.
value will be affected by a
change in interest rates.
Collateral insures the lender against default risk by claiming a valuable asset in case
you default. Loans to finance the purchase of assets, such as a mortgage or car loan,
commonly include the asset as collateral—the house or the car. Other loans, such as
a student loan, may not specify collateral but instead are guaranteed by your
general wealth.
Conditions refer to the lender’s assessment of the current and expected economic
conditions that are the context for this loan. If the economy is contracting and
unemployment is expected to rise, that may affect your ability to earn income and
repay the loan. Also, if inflation is expected, the lender can expect that (1) interest
rates will rise and (2) the value of the currency will fall. In this case, lenders will
want to use a higher interest rate to protect against interest rate risk and the
devaluation of repayments.
Because debt is long term, the lender is exposed to interest rate risk, or the risk that
interest rates will fluctuate over the maturity of the loan. A loan is issued at the
current interest rate, which is “the going rate” or current equilibrium market price
for liquidity. If the interest rate on the loan is fixed, then that is the lender’s
compensation for the opportunity cost or time value of money over the maturity of
the loan.
If interest rates increase before the loan matures, lenders suffer an opportunity cost
because they miss out on the extra earnings that their cash could have earned had
it not been tied up in a fixed-rate loan. If interest rates fall, borrowers will try to
refinance or borrow at lower rates to pay off this now higher-rate loan. Then the
lender will have its liquidity back, but it can only be re-lent at a newer, lower price
and create earnings at this new, lower rate. So the lender suffers the opportunity
cost of the interest that could have been earned.
27. A loan for which the interest Why should you, the borrower, care? Because lenders will have you cover their
rate can change, usually
costs and create a loan structured to protect them from these sorts of risks.
periodically and relative to a
benchmark rate such as the Understanding their risks (looking at the loan agreement from their point of view)
prime rate. helps you to understand your debt choices and to use them to your advantage.
28. A loan for which the interest
rate remains constant over the Lenders can protect themselves against interest rate risk by structuring loans with
maturity of the loan.
a penalty for early repayment to discourage refinancing or by offering a floating-
29. A benchmark interest rate rate loan27 instead of a fixed rate-loan28. With a floating-rate loan, the interest
understood to be the rate that rate “floats” or changes, usually relative to a benchmark such as the prime rate29,
major banks charge corporate
borrowers with the least which is the rate that banks charge their very best (least risky) borrowers. The
default risk. floating-rate loan shifts some interest rate risk onto the borrower, for whom the
cost of debt would rise as interest rates rise. The borrower would still benefit, and
the lender would still suffer from a fall in interest rates, but there is less probability
of early payoff should interest rates fall. Mainly, the floating-rate loan is used to
give the lender some benefit should interest rates rise. Figure 7.12 "U.S. Prime Rate
1975–2008" shows the extent and frequency of fluctuations in the prime rate from
1975–2008.
Figure 7.12 U.S. Prime Rate 1975–2008Data from the U.S. Federal Reserve, http://federalreserve.gov/releases/
h15/data/Monthly/H15_PRIME_NA.txt (accessed February 11, 2009).
Borrowers may be better off having a fixed-rate loan and having stable and
predictable payments over the life of the loan. The better or more creditworthy a
borrower you are, the better the terms and structure of the loan you may negotiate.
Uses of Debt
Debt should be used to finance assets rather than recurring expenses, which are
better managed with a combination of cash and credit. The maturity of the
financing (credit or debt) should match the useful life of the purchase. In other
words, you should use shorter-term credit for consumption and longer-term debt
for assets.
The main reason not to finance expenses with debt is that expenses are expected to
recur, and therefore the best way to pay for them is with a recurring source of
financing, such as income. The cost of credit can be minimized if it is used merely as
a cash management tool, but if it is used as debt, if interest costs are allowed to
accrue, then it becomes a very costly form of financing, because it creates new
expense (interest) and further obligates future income. In turn, that limits future
choices, creating even more opportunity cost.
Credit is more widely available than debt and therefore is a tempting source of
financing. It is a more costly financing alternative, however, in terms of both
interest and opportunity costs.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
1. Identify and analyze your debts. What assets secure your debts? What
assets do your debts finance? What is the cost of your debts? What
determined those costs? What risks do you undertake by being in debt?
How can being in debt help you build wealth?
2. Are you considered a default risk? How would a lender evaluate you
based on “the five C’s” of character, capacity, capital, collateral, and
conditions? Write your evaluations in your personal finance journal or
My Notes. How could you plan to make yourself more attractive to a
lender in the future?
3. Discuss with classmates the Tim Clue video on debt at
http://karenblundell.com/funny/funny-video-debt. What makes this
comedy spot funny? What makes it not funny? What does it highlight
about the appropriate uses of debt?
Introduction
Reva, Burt, and Kim are all students at the local state college. All are living at home
to save money while in school, and all are working at least one job to pay tuition.
Between their paychecks and financial aid, they can get by, but not by much.
All three are consumers and will be all their lives. All
three make consumption decisions based on their
financial and strategic goals, on their personal tastes
and lifestyle, and on professional choices. Their choices are very different and have
different financial consequences. While there are many aspects of your humanity
that define you, the things that you choose to surround yourself with—or not—may
define your ultimate happiness. You need strategies.
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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Consumer purchases refer to items used in daily living (e.g., clothing, food,
electronics, appliances). They are the purchases that most intimately frame your
life: you live with these items and use them every day. They are an expression and a
reflection of you, your tastes, and your lifestyle choices. Your spending decisions
reflect your priorities. Maybe you take pride in your car or your clothes or your
kitchen appliances or your latest, coolest whatever. Or maybe you spend whatever
you can on travel or on your passion for hiking. Those very personal tastes will
frame your spending choices.
Consumer purchases should fit into your budget. By making an operating budget,
you can plan to consume and to finance your consumption without creating extra
costs of borrowing. You can plan to live within your income. At times, you may have
unexpected changes (loss of a job or change in the family) that put your
nondiscretionary needs temporarily beyond your means. Ideally, you would want to
have a cushion to tide you over until you can adjust your spending to fit your
income.
A budget can also show you just how fast some “small luxuries” can add up.
Stopping for a latte on your way to work or school every day ($3.95) adds up to $20
per week, or about $1,000 per year. That money may be better used to finance a
bigger ticket item that you then would not have to finance with debt. With the
budget to help you put expenses into perspective, you can make better purchasing
decisions.
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Purchasing decisions are always limited by the income available, and that means
making choices. Your choices of what, where, when, and even how to buy will affect
the amount that you spend and the utility (the joy or regret) that you ultimately get
out of your purchase.
Shopping is a process. You decide what you want, then have to make more specific
decisions:
• Should you buy more (and pay more) but get a cheaper unit price?
• Should you buy locally or remotely, via catalogue or Internet?
• Should you pay more for a well-known brand, or buy the generic?
• Should you look for a guarantee or warranty or consider long-term
repair costs?
• Should you consider resale value?
• Should you pay cash or use credit? If you pay through credit, is it store
credit, your own credit card, or a loan?
The decision process can be broken down into the © 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
following steps:
• As you buy,
◦ maintenance;
◦ how to address dissatisfaction.
What do you want? What do you want it to do for you? What do you want to gain by
having it or using it or wearing it or eating it or playing with it or…? You buy things
hoping to solve a need in your life. The more specifically you can define that need,
the more accurately you can identify something to fill it. If your purchase is
inappropriate for your need, you will not be happy with it, no matter how good it is.
And because your budget is limited, you want to minimize your opportunity cost
and buyer’s remorse1 or regret at not making a better purchase in order to use
your limited income most efficiently.
Sometimes you can identify a need, but have no idea of the kinds of products that
may fill it. This is especially true for infrequent needs or purchases. For example,
you may decide you need to get away and take a long weekend. To do it cheaply,
you decide to go hiking and camping. To make it more fun, you decide to go to an
area where you’ve never been before. You may not be aware of the camping options
available in that area, however, or of equally cheap alternatives such as hostels, bed
and breakfasts, or other accommodations. When you find that you have a range of
choices, you can compare them and choose one that offers the most satisfaction.
Once you have identified the product, you can compare the attributes of those
products. What characteristics do you require or want? How are you going to use
the product? For example, do you need cooking facilities, access to a shower, a safe
but scenic location, opportunities to meet other hikers, and so on? What attributes
are important to you and what are available?
© 2010 Jupiterimages
Noticing that most of the keyboards range in price from Corporation
twenty-five to fifty dollars, he decides to look in the
fifty to a hundred dollar range, figuring he’ll get a
slightly higher-end product, but not an outrageously
expensive one. This narrows his search to about twenty-five models.
None of the models has all the attributes that Sig desires. It’s a trade-off: he can
have some features, but not others. He decides to try to organize his research by
creating a table ranking the product attributes in order of importance, and then
scoring each model on each attribute (on a scale of one to ten), eventually coming
up with an overall score for each model. Figure 8.4 "Sig’s Product-Attribute
Scoring" shows scoring for three models.
Multiplying each attribute’s weight by its score gives its weighted score, then
adding up each weighted score gives the total score for the product. Based on this
attribute analysis, Sig would choose TKG, which has the highest overall score.
In the case of an asset purchase, you may eventually think of reselling the item, so
the ease and/or costs of doing so may figure into your prebuying evaluation. You
may decide to go with a “better” product—a more recognizable or popular brand,
for example—that may have a higher resale value. You also need to consider the
market for used or preowned products: if there is one, how liquid the market is, or
how easy it is to use. If the market is not very liquid, then the transaction costs of
selling in the used product market may be significant, and you may be disappointed
with the result.
The more choices you have, the better your chances of finding satisfaction. The
more products there are to satisfy your need, and the more attributes those
products offer, the more likely you are to find what “works” for you. Sometimes
you need to be a bit creative in thinking about your alternatives, especially with
limited resources.
The Internet has made it easy to research products online and to become a much
better informed consumer. You can do lots of research online, even if you actually
purchase locally. A feature of many online stores and consumer discussions is
product reviews, where consumers give feedback on their satisfaction with the
product. Such reviews can balance the information from the manufacturer and
retailer, who want to inform consumers to encourage them to buy.
Other sources of information are magazines and trade journals (such as Consumer
Reports, both in print and online), which have articles and ratings on products as
well as ads. Your research may also involve actual or virtual window shopping, like
going to stores to examine the products you are thinking of buying.
As with any market, the real determinant of how your market works is competition.
The more vendors there are, the more they compete for your business, and the
more likely you will find options for purchasing convenience, product attributes,
and price.
In markets where vendors are so plentiful that your problem is filtering rather than
finding information, there are middlemen to provide that service. An example is
the budget travel businesses with Web sites that make it convenient to research and
buy flights, rental cars, and hotel accommodations. Middlemen or brokers2 exist in
markets where they can add value to your purchasing process, either by providing
information in the prepurchase stage or by providing convenience during the
purchase. The more they can reduce the cost of a “bad” decision (e.g., a difficult
flight schedule, an expensive car rental, an uncomfortable hotel accommodation),
the more valuable they are. They can add more value in markets where you have
too little or too much information or less familiarity with products or vendors.
Generally, the more expensive the product or the less frequent the purchase, the
more likely you will find a middleman to make it easier.
Some products have a “new” and a “used” market, such as durable goods and some
consumer goods like textbooks, vintage clothing, and yard sale goods. Evaluating
the quality of a used or preowned product can require more research, information,
and expertise, because the effect of its past use on its future value can be hard to
estimate. Used products are almost always priced less than new products, unless
they have become “collectibles” that can store value. The trade-off is that used
products offer less reliable or predictable future performance and may lack
attributes of newer models.
Different kinds of stores often offer the same products at different prices.
Convenience stores, for example, typically charge higher prices than grocery stores
but may be in more convenient locations and open at more convenient hours.
Smaller boutique stores cannot always realize the economies of scale in
administrative costs or in inventory management that are available to a larger store
or a chain of stores. For those reasons prices tend to be higher at a smaller store.
Boutiques often offer more amenities and a higher level of customer service to be
2. An intermediary that acts as an competitive. You may also shop at a specialty store when you need a certain level of
agent for buyers or sellers to
expertise or assistance in making a purchase.
arrange a trade.
Cooperative stores are owned and managed collectively and may provide goods or
services that would not otherwise be available. Shopping is usually open to anyone,
but members are eligible for discounts, depending on their participation in the
store’s operations or management. The members own the store, so they can forgo
corporate profits for consumer discounts.
Auctions are becoming increasingly popular, especially online auctions at eBay and
similar sites. Auctions are open negotiations between buyers and sellers and offer
dynamic pricing. They also offer uncertainty, as the price and even the eventual
purchase are risky—you may lose the auction and not get the item. Auctions are
used most often for resales and for assets such as homes, cars, antiques, art, and
collectibles. The popularity of online auctions has led to more buyers, bringing
more competition and thus higher prices.
Most consumer purchases are for consumable goods or services and are budgeted
from current income. You pay by using cash or a debit card or, if financed, by using
a credit card for short-term financing. Such purchases—food, clothing,
transportation, and so on—should be covered by recurring income because they are
recurring expenses. You need to be able to afford them. As you read in Chapter 7
"Financial Management", consumers who use debt to finance consumption can
quickly run into trouble because they add the cost of debt to their recurring
expenses, which are already greater than their recurring income.
The use of middlemen or brokers to find and buy an item also contributes to the
cost of a purchase because of the fees you pay for the service.
Products and preferred financing sources are shown in Figure 8.5 "Products and
Preferred Financing Sources".
Having done your homework and made your choice, you are ready to purchase. In
some cases, you may be able to make specific arrangements with vendors as to
convenience, price, delivery, and even financing.
In Western cultures, prices for consumer goods are usually not negotiable;
consumers expect to pay the price on the price tag. In other cultures, however,
haggling over price is common and expected, which often surprises travelers
abroad.
Durable goods and asset purchases typically offer more purchase options than
consumer goods, usually as an incentive to buyers. Vendors may offer free delivery
or free installation, product guarantees, or financing arrangements such as “no
payments for six months” or “zero percent financing.” Offers may be enhanced
periodically to “move the merchandise,” when prices may also be discounted. Sales,
“special offers” or “low, low prices” may be used to sell merchandise that is about
to be replaced by a newer model. If those product cycles are seasonal and
predictable, you may be able to schedule your purchase to take advantage of
discounts.
Or you may decide to wait and pay full price for the newer model to avoid
purchasing a product that is about to become outdated.
The more the purchase process allows for negotiation, the more possibility there is
for consumers to enhance satisfaction. However, the negotiation process can go the
other way too: it allows more opportunity for the vendor to negotiate an advantage.
The better-informed consumer is more likely to negotiate a more satisfying
purchase, so it is important to be thorough in the prepurchase research.
A purchase may have transaction costs such as sales tax or delivery charges. For
higher-priced products such as durables and assets, those transaction costs can add
up, so you should figure them into your overall cost of the purchase.
Financing costs can also be significant if debt financing is used. Debt is long term
and is a significant commitment as well. It may pay to compare financing rates and
terms just as you would for the product itself, or you may be able to use financing
costs as a negotiating chip in your price negotiations.
Now you can enjoy your purchase. Some products require maintenance and
periodic repair to remain useful. You should research those additional costs before
buying, because after the purchase you are committed to those activities.
If you are not satisfied due to a product defect, you can contact the retailer or
manufacturer. If there is a warranty, the retailer or manufacturer will either fix the
defect or replace the item. Many manufacturers and retailers will do so even if
there is no warranty to maintain good customer relations and enhance their
brand’s reputation. An Internet search will usually turn up contact information for
a product’s customer service team.
Consumer Strategies
Price advantage can sometimes come through timing. Seasonally updated products
or models can force retailers to discount old inventory to get it off the shelves
before the new inventory arrives. Automobiles, for example, have a one-year
product cycle, as do many desktop computers and peripherals.
Some products are naturally dated, such as calendars or tax preparation software,
and so may be discounted as they near their expiration date. However, that is
because they have less and less usefulness and may not be worth buying at all.
Commodities prices can fluctuate depending on the season or the weather, and
although you may not have a choice of buying home heating oil when you do, some
products do offer you a choice. Tomatoes in January are more expensive than in
August, for example; eating fresh foods seasonally can produce savings.
Price can also be affected by transaction costs, or the costs of making the purchase.
They can be included in the price or may be listed separately. Larger and more
expensive items tend to have more transaction costs such as delivery and storage.
Sales tax, which is a percentage of the price, may be required, and the higher the
item’s price, the more sales tax you will pay. Asset purchases also involve a legal
transfer of ownership and often the costs of acquiring financing, which add to their
costs. Sometimes, to entice a purchase, the seller may agree to bear some or all of
the transaction costs.
January, when sales follow the big holiday shopping season. Sometimes sales are
not sales at all, but prices are “discounted” relative to new, higher, prices that will
soon take effect. Quantity discounts4, a lower unit price for a higher volume
purchased, may be available for customers buying larger quantities, although
sometimes the opposite is true, that is, the smaller package offers a smaller unit
price. While it may be cheaper to buy a year’s worth of toilet paper at one time, you
then create storage costs and sacrifice liquidity, which you should weigh against
your cost savings.
In short, sellers want to sell and will use price to make products more attractive. As
a buyer, you need to recognize when that attraction offers real value.
Here are some typical scams reported by Consumer Reports, the magazine of the
nonprofit Consumers Union, an advocacy group for consumers:Consumer Reports,
“Sneakiest Consumer Scams,” September 2007, http://www.consumerreports.org
(accessed April 1, 2009).
If you do get “scammed,” it is your civic duty to complain to your state’s consumer
division in the attorney general’s office and, if advised, to federal regulators at the
Federal Trade Commission (FTC). That is the only way to stop and expose such
frauds and to keep others from becoming victims. As the saying goes, “If it sounds
too good to be true, it probably is.”
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ Prepurchase
◦ Purchase
◦ Postpurchase
▪ Ensuring satisfaction.
EXERCISES
1. Identify the last three items (consumer goods and durable goods)
you purchased. Alternatively, select any three items you
purchased during the last two months. Choose diverse items and
analyze each item in terms of the following factors:
a. Why did you buy that item? How did you decide what to get?
b. What attributes proved most important in narrowing your
choices? Create an attribute analysis chart for each item (see
Figure 8.4 "Sig’s Product-Attribute Scoring").
c. Where did you get your information about the item?
d. Where did you go to buy the item?
e. In what kind of market did you make your purchase?
f. Where did the money come from for your purchase?
g. How much did you pay for the item, and how did you pay for
it?
h. How would you rate your satisfaction with your purchase?
i. If or when you purchase that type of item again, what might
you do differently?
2. In My Notes or your personal finance journal, record your favorite
strategies for making purchases. Include a specific recent example of
how you used each strategy. Your strategies may relate to bargain
shopping, high-end shopping, warranties, store brands, coupons,
discounts, rebates, seasonal shopping, expiry shopping, bulk buying,
cooperative buying, special sales, or other practices. Share your
consumer success stories with classmates and add at least one new idea
to your list.
3. Have you ever been the victim of a consumer scam? What scams have
you been exposed to that you managed to avoid? Describe your
experiences in My Notes or your personal finance journal. Find out how
many complaints of fraud the Federal Trade Commission received from
consumers in its most recent reporting year (e.g., see
http://www.ftc.gov/opa/2008/02/fraud.shtm). What were the most
common fraud complaints?
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Show how the purchasing process (e.g., identifying the product, the
market, and the financing) may be applied to a car purchase.
2. Explain the advantages (and disadvantages) of leasing versus borrowing
as a form of financing.
3. Analyze all the costs associated with car ownership.
4. Define “lemon laws.”
Many adults will buy a car several times during their lifetimes. A car is a major
purchase. Its price can be as much as or more than one year’s disposable income. Its
annual operating costs can be substantial, including the cost of fuel, legally
mandated insurance premiums, and registration fees, as well as maintenance and
perhaps repairs and storage (parking). A car is not only a significant purchase, but
also an ongoing commitment.
First, you identify the need: What is your goal in owning © 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
a car? What needs will it fulfill? Here are some further
questions to consider:
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Chapter 8 Consumer Strategies
• Do you live in a more rural area where you will be driving longer
distances at faster speeds?
• Do you live in a climate where winter or a rainy season would make
traction and storage an issue?
• How much time will you spend in the car every day?
• How many miles will you drive each year?
• How long do you expect to keep the car?
• Do you expect to resell or trade in the car?
Your answers to these questions will help you identify the product you want.
Answering these questions can help identify the attributes you value in a car, based
on how you will use it. Cars have many features to compare. The most critical (in no
particular order) are shown in Figure 8.9 "Automobile Attributes and Relevance".
All these attributes affect price, and you may think of others. Product attribution
scoring can help you identify the models that most closely fit your goals.
Mary lives on a dirt road in a rural area; she drives about 18,000 miles per year,
commuting to her job as an accountant at the corporate headquarters of an auto
parts chain and taking her kids to school. She is also a pretty good car mechanic
and does basic maintenance herself.
John lives in the city; he walks or takes a bus to his job as a market researcher for an
ad agency, but keeps a car to visit his parents in the suburbs. He drives about 5,000
miles per year, often crawling in traffic. All John knows about a car is that the key
goes in the ignition and the fuel goes in the tank.
John and Mary would rate these attributes very differently, and their scoring of the
same models would have very different results.
Mary may value fuel efficiency more, as she drives more (and so purchases more
fuel). Driving often and with her children, she may rank size, safety, and
entertainment features higher than John would, who is in his car less frequently
and alone. Mary relies on the car to get to work, so reliability would be more
important for her than for John, who drives only for recreational visits. But Mary
also knows that she can maintain and repair some things herself, which makes that
less of a factor.
Car attributes are widely publicized by car dealers and manufacturers, who are
among the top advertisers globally year after year.Advertising Age, “Global
Marketers: Top 100,” December 8, 2007, http://adage.com/images/random/
datacenter/2008/globalmarketing2008.pdf (accessed April 1, 2009). You can visit
dealerships in your area or manufacturers’ Web sites. Using the Internet is a more
efficient way of narrowing your search. Specialized print and online magazines,
such as Car and Driver, Road and Track, and Edmunds.com, offer detailed discussions
of model attributes and their actual performance. Consumer Reports also offers
ratings and reviews and also provides data on frequency of repairs and annual
maintenance costs.
You want to be sure to consider not only the price of buying the car, but also the
costs of operating it. Fuel, maintenance, repair, insurance, property taxes, and
registration may all be affected by the car’s attributes, so you should consider
operating costs when choosing the product. For example, routine repairs and
maintenance are more expensive for some cars. A more fuel-efficient car can
significantly lower your fuel costs. A more valuable car will cost more to insure and
will mean higher property (or excise) taxes. Moreover, the costs of fuel,
maintenance, insurance, registration, and perhaps property tax on the car will be
ongoing expenses—you want to buy a car you can afford and afford to drive.
If you are buying a new car, you know its condition, and so you can predict annual
maintenance and repair costs and the car’s longevity by the history for that model.
Depending on how long you expect to own the car, you may also be concerned with
its predicted resale value.
Used cars are generally less expensive than new. A used car has fewer miles left in
it. Its condition is less certain: you may not know how it has been driven or its
repair and maintenance history. This makes it harder to predict annual
maintenance and repair costs. Typically, since it is already used when you buy it,
you expect little or no resale value. You can gain a significant price savings in the
used car market, and there are good used cars for sale. You may just have to look a
bit harder to find one.
The National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) offers a checklist for used
vehicle inspection when buying a used car. The NADA also publishes guidebooks on
used car book values (see http://www.nadaguides.com). Items to inspect in your
exterior, interior, and engine checks are outlined in Figure 8.10 "Used Car Buyer’s
Checklist".
Figure 8.10 Used Car Buyer’s ChecklistNational Automobile Dealers Association, http://www.nadaguides.com
(accessed November 23, 2009).
The condition of exterior and interior features can indicate past accidents, repairs,
or lack of maintenance that may increase future operating expenses, or just driving
habits that have left a less attractive or less comfortable vehicle.
Unless you are an expert yourself, you should always have a trained mechanic
inspect a used vehicle before you buy it. With cars, as with any item, the better
informed you are, the better you can do as a consumer. Given the cost of a car and
its annual expense, there is enough at stake with this purchase to make you
cautious.
New cars are sold through car dealerships. The dealer has a contract with the
manufacturer to sell its cars in the retail market. Dealers may also offer repair and
maintenance services as well as parts and accessories made especially for the
models it sells.
New car dealers may also resell cars that they get as trade-ins, especially of the
same models they sell new. Used car dealers typically buy cars through auctions of
corporate, rental, or government cars.
Demand for cars is affected by macroeconomic factors such as business cycles and
inflation. If there is a recession and a rise in unemployment, incomes drop. Demand
for new cars will fall. Many people will decide to keep driving their current vehicle
until things pick up, unwilling to purchase a long-term asset when they are
uncertain about their job and paycheck. That slowing of demand may lower car
prices, but will also lower the resale or trade-in value of the current vehicle. For
first-time car buyers, that may be a good time to buy.
If there is inflation, it will push up interest rates because the price of borrowing
money rises with other prices. Since many people borrow when purchasing a car,
that will make the borrowing, and so the purchase, more costly, which will
discourage demand.
When the economy is expanding, on the other hand, and inflation and interest rates
are low, demand for new cars rises, pushing up prices. In turn, prices are kept in
check by competition. As demand for new cars rises, demand for used cars may fall,
causing the supply of used cars to rise as more people trade in their cars to buy a
new one. They trade them in earlier in the car’s life, so the quality of the used cars
on the market rises. This may be a good time to buy a used car.
The cost of a car is significant. Car purchases usually require financing through a
loan or a lease. Each may require a down payment, which you would take out of
your savings. That creates an opportunity cost of losing the return you could have
earned on your savings. You also lose liquidity: you are taking cash, a liquid asset,
and trading it for a car, a not-so-liquid asset.
Your opportunity cost and the cost of decreasing your liquidity are costs of buying
the car. You can reduce those costs by borrowing more (and putting less money
down), but the more you borrow, the higher your costs of borrowing. If you trade in
a vehicle, dealers will often use the trade-in value as the down payment and will sell
the car to you with “no money down.”
Car loans are available from banks, credit unions, consumer finance companies, and
the manufacturers themselves. Be sure to shop around for the best deal, as rates,
maturity, and terms can vary. If you shop for the loan before shopping for the car,
then the loan negotiation is separate from the car purchase negotiation. Both may
be complex deals, and there are many trade-offs to be made. The more
separate—and simplified—each negotiation is, the more likely you will be happy
with the outcome.
Loans differ by interest rate or annual percentage rate (APR) and by the time to
maturity. Both will affect your monthly payments. A loan with a higher APR is
costing you more and, all things being equal, will have a higher monthly payment. A
loan with a longer maturity will reduce your monthly payment, but if the APR is
higher, it is actually costing you more. Loan maturities may range from one to five
years; the longer the loan, the more you risk ending up with a loan that’s worth
more than your car.
Rebecca buys a used Saturn for $6,000, with $1,000 cash down from savings and a
GMAC-financed loan at 7.2 APR, on which she pays $115 a month for forty-eight
months. She could have gotten a twenty-four-month loan, but wanted to have
smaller monthly payments. After only twenty-five months, she totals her car in a
chain collision but luckily escapes injury. Now she needs another car. The Saturn
has no trade-in value, her insurance benefit won’t be enough to cover the cost of
another car, and she still has to pay off her loan regardless. Rebecca is out of luck,
because her debt outlived her asset. If your debt outlives your asset, your ability to
get financing when you go to replace that vehicle will be limited, because you still
have the old debt to pay off and now are looking to add a new debt—and its
payments—to your budget. Rebecca will have to use more savings and may have to
pay more for a second loan, if she can get one, increasing her monthly payments or
extending her debt over a longer period of time.
An alternative to getting a car loan is leasing a car. Leases are a common way of
financing a car purchase. A lease6 is a long-term rental agreement with a buyout
option7 at maturity. Typically, at the end of the lease, usually three or four years,
6. A rental agreement used as a you can buy the car outright for a certain amount, or you can give it back (and buy
form of financing for or lease another car), which removes the risk of having an asset that outlives its
automobile purchases.
financing. Leases specify an annual mileage limit, that is, the number of miles that
7. A feature of a lease that offers you can drive the car in a year before incurring additional costs. Leases also specify
the option to buy the asset the monthly payment and requirements for routine maintenance that will preserve
financed by the lease at the
the car’s value.
end of the lease term.
So, lease or borrow? The price of the car should be the same regardless of how it is
financed—the car should be worth what it’s worth, no matter how it is paid for. The
cost of borrowing, in percentage terms, is the interest rate or APR of the loan. The
costs of leasing, in dollars, are the down payment, the lease payments, and the
buyout. Since the price of the car itself is the same in either case, the present value
of all the lease costs should be the same as the price of the car. You can use what
you know about the time value of money to calculate the discount rate that
produces that price; that is the equivalent annual cost of the lease, in percentage
terms.
For example, you want to buy a car with a price of $19,000. You can get a car loan
with an APR of 6.5 percent from your bank. You are offered a lease requiring a down
payment of $2,999, monthly payments of $359 for three years, and a final buyout of
$5,000. The APR of the lease is actually 5.93 percent, which would make it the
cheaper financing alternative.
In general, the longer you intend to keep the car, the less sense it makes to lease. If
you typically drive a car “into the ground,” until it costs more to repair than
replace it, then you are better off borrowing and spreading the costs of financing
over a longer period. On the other hand, if you intend to keep the car only for the
term of the lease and not to exercise the buyout option, then it is usually more cost
effective to lease. You also need to consider whether or not you are likely to stay
within the mileage limits of the lease, as the mileage penalties can add significantly
to your costs.
Some people will say that they like to borrow and then “own” in order to have an
asset that can store value or “build equity.” Given the unpredictable nature of the
used car market, however, a car is really not an asset that can be counted on to
store value. Thinking of a car as something that you will use up (although over
several years) rather than as an asset you can preserve or save will help you make
better financial decisions.
Car purchases are one instance where the buyer is expected to haggle over price.
The sticker price is the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP)8 for that
vehicle model with those features. Dealers negotiate many of the factors that
ultimately determine the value of the purchase: the optional features of the car, the
warranty terms, service discounts on routine maintenance, financing terms,
rebates, trade-in value for you old car, and so on.
As more of these factors are discussed at once, the negotiation becomes more and
more complex. You can help yourself by keeping the negotiations as simple as
possible: negotiate one thing at a time, settle on that, and then negotiate the next
factor. Keep track of what has been agreed to as you go along. When each factor has
been negotiated, you will have the package deal.
Your ability to get a satisfying deal rests on your abilities as a negotiator. For this
reason, many people who find that process distasteful or suspect that their skills
are lacking find the car purchasing process distasteful. Dealers know this, and some
will try to attract customers by being more transparent about their own costs and
about prices. Some even promise the “no-dicker sticker” sale with no haggling over
price at all.
8. The “sticker price” for an item.
As with any product in any market, the more information you have, the better you
can negotiate. The more thorough your prepurchase activities, the more satisfying
your purchase will be.
While you own the car, you will maximize the benefits enjoyed by operating the
vehicle safely and by keeping it in good condition. Routine maintenance (e.g.,
replacing fluids, rotating tires) can ensure the quality and longevity of your vehicle.
New cars come with owner’s manuals that detail a schedule of service requirements
and good driving practices for your vehicle. You will be required to keep the car
legally insured and registered with the state where you reside, and you must
maintain a valid license to drive.
For his first car Ray bought a ten-year-old coupe with only 60,000 miles on it for a
price that seemed too good to be true. The seller said the good price was in
9. A manufacturer’s guarantee of exchange for getting payment in full in cash. The car broke down right away,
product performance for a
period of time. however, and within two weeks died of a cracked block. When Ray complained, the
seller claimed he didn’t know about the cracked block and pointed out that there
10. Federal and state laws was no warranty on the car, so Ray was out of luck. Fortunately, Ray had read that a
protecting consumers against
products that repeatedly fail to defective car, referred to as a “lemon,” is covered under laws that protect
meet standards of consumers who unknowingly purchase a car that proves to be defective. Lemon
performance. The federal laws10 regulate sales terms, purchase cancellation conditions, and warranty
Magnuson-Moss Warranty Act
requirements. These laws are enforced on both the federal and state level in the
was enacted in 1975.
United States. Other consumer protection laws apply specifically to motor vehicles
and vary by state. Ray learned that laws in his state include used cars as well as new
ones, and when he told the seller, he was able to get most of his cash back.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
1. Perform an attribute analysis for your next new or used car. Go online to
research cars with the attributes you have prioritized, and find where
you could buy what you want locally. Then research the dealership,
including a quick check at the Better Business Bureau Web site or your
local chamber of commerce to learn if there have been many consumer
complaints. After researching the product, the market, and the price,
visit a dealership, preferably with a classmate or partner, for the
experience of getting information and practicing your negotiation skills
(but without making any commitments, unless you really are in the
market for a car at this time).
2. How will you finance a car? Play with the Car Loan Calculator at
http://www.edmunds.com/apps/calc/CalculatorController. First
identify a sample of new or used cars you would like to own, and for
each choice calculate what your down payment, monthly loan payments,
and term of payment would be. How much would you need to buy a car
and where would that money come from? How much could you afford to
pay each month and for how long? How could you modify your budget
to accommodate car payments?
3. For a car you would like to drive, calculate and compare what it would
cost you to buy it and to lease it. Use the Lease versus Buy Calculator at
http://www.leaseguide.com/leasevsbuy.htm. What would be the
advantages of owning the car? What would be the advantages of leasing
it? For your lifestyle, needs, and uses of a vehicle, should you buy or
lease?
4. View a 2009 Money Talks video on “Buying Cars in a Credit Crunch” at
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/video/default-ap.aspx?cp-
documentid=f5dda393-7ab1-4e25-b446- 30e313aa3796%26tab=Money
%20Talks%20News. What sources of financing does the video identify for
times when national banks and finance companies are not forthcoming
with car loans because of downturns in the economy?
5. Check the lemon laws in your state at Lemon Law America’s Web site:
http://www.lemonlawamerica.com/. Click on your state on the map.
What conditions do your state lemon laws cover? Some states do not
cover used or leased cars under lemon laws. Under federal laws, if you
buy a used car “as is,” do you still retain rights under the lemon laws?
Under federal lemon laws, in what situations, when the seller does not
divulge the information, may you be able to get your money back on a
car?
Introduction
Be it ever so humble, the “biggest” purchase you ever make may be your home.
Unlike most other consumer purchases, a home is expected to be more than a living
space; it is also an asset that stores and increases value. The house has a dual
financial role as both a nest and a nest egg.
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Chapter 9 Buying a Home
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Renting a Home
If you have already decided on a goal of home ownership, you have already
compared the costs and benefits of the alternative, which is renting. Renting
requires relatively few initial legal or financial commitments. The renter signs a
lease that spells out the terms of the rental agreement: term, rent, terms of
payments and fees, restrictions such as pets or smoking, and charges for damages. A
renter is usually required to give the landlord a security deposit to cover the
landlord’s costs of repairs or cleaning, as necessary, when the tenant moves out. If
the deposit is not used, it is returned to the departing tenant (although without any
interest earned).
Some general advantages and disadvantages of renting and owning are shown in
Figure 9.2 "Renting versus Owning".
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Chapter 9 Buying a Home
The choice of whether to rent or to own follows the pattern of life stages. People
rent early in their adult lives because they typically have fewer financial resources
and put a higher value on mobility, usually to keep more career flexibility. Since
incomes are usually low, the tax advantages of ownership don’t have much benefit.
As family size grows, the quality of life for dependents typically takes precedence,
and a family looks for the added space and comfort of a home and its benefits as an
investment. This is the mid-adult stage of accumulating assets and building wealth.
As income rises, the tax benefit becomes more valuable, too.
Often, in retirement, with both incomes and family size smaller, older adults will
downsize to an apartment, shedding responsibilities and financial commitments.
Home ownership decisions vary: some people just never want the responsibilities of
ownership, while some just always want a place of their own.
and agents all rent properties and use various media to advertise an available space.
Since the rent for an apartment is a regular expense, financed from current income
(not long-term debt), you need to find only the apartment and not the financing,
which simplifies the process considerably.
Assessing Attributes
Once you decide to own your home, you must choose the home to own, considering
the different kinds of homes and of home ownership.
Sales of existing single-family homes far outnumber sales of new and custom
homes. In the month of February 2009, for example, 4.72 million existing homes
were sold compared to 337,000 sales of new homes. The average price of a new
house in February 2009 in the United States was $251,000.National Association of
Home Builders, http://www.nahb.org/fileUpload_
details.aspx?contentTypeID=3&contentID=97096&subContentID=153510 (accessed
November 23, 2009).
1. A residential building including
more than one housing unit,
such as a duplex, triplex, or Mobile homes2 are large trailers fitted with utilities connections, which can be
apartment building.
installed on permanent sites and used as residences. A mobile home may also be
2. A manufactured home, usually situated in a trailer park or mobile home community where the owner rents a lot.
under 1,000 sq. ft. in size. Mobile homes are often referred to as manufactured homes, and other examples of
3. An ownership arrangement manufactured homes are prefabricated or modular homes, which are moved to a
where individual housing units foundation site by trailer and then assembled.
are owned by individual
owners, while common spaces
are owned by the In a condominium3, the homeowner owns a unit in a multiple-unit dwelling, but
condominium association of
the common areas of the building are owned and managed by the condominium
unit owners.
owners’ association. Condo owners pay a fee to cover the costs of overall building
maintenance and operating expenses for common areas.
After ranking the importance of such attributes, you can use an attribute-scoring
matrix to score your choices. After understanding exactly what you are looking for
in a home, you should begin to think about how much house you can afford.
Assessing Affordability
4. An ownership arrangement Before looking for a house that offers what you want, you need to identify a price
where the right to inhabit range that you can afford. Most people use financing to purchase a home, so your
living space is claimed by the
purchase of shares in the
ability to access financing or get a loan will determine the price range of the house
cooperative ownership of a you can buy. Since your home and your financing are long-term commitments, you
multi-unit dwelling. need to be careful to try to include future changes in your thinking.
For example, Jill and Jack are both twenty-five years old, newly married, and
looking to buy their first home. Both work and earn good incomes. The real estate
market is strong, especially with mortgage rates relatively low. They buy a two-
bedroom condo in a new development as a starter home.
Fast-forward five years. Jill is expecting their second child; while the couple is
happy about the new baby, neither can imagine how they will all fit in their already
cramped space. They would love to sell the condo and purchase a larger home with
a yard for the kids, but the real estate market has slowed, mortgage rates have
risen, and a plant closing last year has driven up unemployment in their area. Jill
hasn’t worked outside the home since their first child was born two years ago—they
are just getting by on one salary and a new baby will increase their
expenses—making it even more difficult to think about financing a larger home.
A lender will look at your income, your current debts, and credit history to assess
your ability to assume a mortgage. As discussed in Chapter 7 "Financial
Management", your credit score is an important tool for the lender, who may also
request verification of employment and income from your employer.
Lenders do their own calculations of how much debt you can afford, based on a
reasonable percentage, usually about 33 percent, of your monthly gross income that
should go toward your monthly housing costs, or principal, interest, taxes, and
insurance (PITI)5. If you have other debts, your PITI plus your other debt
repayments should be no more than about 38 percent of your gross income. Those
percentages will be adjusted for income level, credit score, and amount of the down
payment.
Say the lender assumes that 38 percent of your monthly gross income (annual gross
income divided by twelve) should cover your PITI plus any other debt payments.
Subtracting your other debt payments and estimated cost of taxes and insurance
leaves you with a figure for affordable monthly mortgage payments. Dividing that
figure by the mortgage factor for your mortgage’s maturity and mortgage rate
shows the affordable mortgage overall. Knowing what percentage your mortgage
will be of the home’s purchase price, you can calculate the maximum purchase
price of the home that you can afford. That affordable home purchase price is based
on your gross income, other debts, taxes, insurance, mortgage rate, mortgage
maturity, and down payment.
5. Principal, interest, taxes, and
insurance are the costs of
home ownership. PITI is Figure 9.5 "Mortgage Affordability Calculation" shows an example of this
usually calculated on a
calculation for a thirty-year, 6.5 percent mortgage.
monthly basis in the process of
determining the affordability
of a mortgage.
These kinds of calculations give both you and your lender a much clearer idea of
what you can afford. You may want to sit down with a potential lender and have
this discussion before you do any serious house hunting, so that you have a price
range in mind before you shop. Mortgage affordability calculators are also available
online.
After understanding exactly what you are looking for in a home and what you can
afford, you can organize your efforts and begin your search.
Typically, buyers use a realtor6 and realty listings to identify homes for sale. A real
estate broker can add value to your search by providing information about the
house and property, the neighborhood and its schools, recreational and cultural
opportunities, and costs of living.
buyer’s agent, a fee-based real estate broker who works for the buyer to identify
choices independently of the purchase. The real estate industry is regulated by
state and federal laws as well as by self-regulatory bodies, and real estate agents
must be licensed to operate.
Increasingly, sellers are marketing their homes directly to save the cost of using a
broker. A real estate broker typically takes a negotiable amount up to 6 percent of
the purchase price, from which it pays a commission to the real estate agent. “For
sale by owner” sites on the Internet can make the exchange of housing information
easier and more convenient for both buyers and sellers. For example, Web sites
such as Picketfencepreview.com serve home sellers and buyers directly. Keep in
mind, however, that sellers acting as their own brokers and agents are not licensed
or regulated and may not be knowledgeable about federal and state laws governing
real estate transactions, potentially increasing your risk.
After you narrow your search and choose a prospective home in your price range,
you have the home inspected to assess its condition and project the cost of any
repairs or renovations. Many states require a home inspection before signing a
purchase agreement or as a condition of the agreement. A standard home
inspection checklist, based on information from the National Association of
Certified Home Inspectors, is shown in Figure 9.6 "Standard Home Inspection
Checklist".
have been fixed improperly or that may recur—for example, water in the basement
or leaks in the roof. If there are problems, you will need an estimate for the cost of
fixing them. If there are significant and immediate repair or renovation costs
projected by the home’s condition, you may try to reduce the purchase price of the
property by those costs. You don’t want any surprises after you buy the house,
especially costly ones.
You will also want to do a title search, as required by your lender, to verify that
there are no liens7 or claims outstanding against the property. For example, the
previous owners may have had a dispute with a contractor and never paid his bill,
and the contractor may have filed a lien or a claim against the property that must
be resolved before the property can change hands. There are several other kinds of
liens; for example, a tax lien is imposed to secure payment of overdue taxes.
A lawyer or a title search company can do the search, which involves checking the
municipal or town records where a lien would be filed. A title search will also reveal
if previous owners have deeded any rights—such as development rights or water
rights, for example, or grants of right-of-way across the property—that would
diminish its value.
Housing costs are determined by the price of the house and by the price of the debt
that finances the house. House prices are determined by forces of supply and
demand, which in turn are determined by macroeconomic circumstances.
When the economy is contracting and incomes are decreasing, and especially if
unemployment rises and incomes become uncertain, buyers are hesitant to add the
significant financial responsibility of new debt to their budgets. They tend to
continue with their present arrangements or may try to move into cheaper
housing, downsizing to a smaller house, an apartment, or condo to decrease
operating expenses. When the economy is expanding, on the other hand,
expectations of rising incomes may encourage buyers to be bolder with their
purchasing decisions.
A house represents not only a housing expense but also an investment that can
serve as a store of wealth. In theory, if a contraction creates a market with declining
asset values, investors will seek out alternative investments, abandoning that
market. In other words, if house prices decline, the house’s value as an investment
7. An interest in a property
will decline. Investors will seek other assets in which to store wealth to avoid the
granted to secure payment of opportunity cost of making an investment that does not generate returns.
debt.
Housing markets are local, however. If the local economy is dominated by one
industry or by one large employer, the housing market will be sensitive to the fate
of that industry or employer. If a location has value independent of the local
economy, such as value as a vacation or retirement location, that value can offset
local concerns. In that case, housing prices may be less sensitive to the local
economy.
Since a house is an investment, the home buyer is concerned about its expected
future value. Future value is not easy to predict, however, as housing markets have
some volatility. In extreme periods, for example between 2004 and 2009, there was
extreme volatility (read more on the real estate bubble in Chapter 13 "Behavioral
Finance and Market Behavior"). Thus, depending on how long you intend to own
the home, it may or may not be realistic to try to predict price trends based on
macroeconomic cycles or factors. Some areas may seem to be always desirable, such
as Manhattan’s East Side or Malibu, California, but a severe economic shock or
boom can affect prices in those areas as well.
The data in Figure 9.7 "U.S. Housing Prices 1890–2005 (Inflation-Adjusted Dollars)"
display some remarkable stability to housing prices. For example, for the half-
century from the end of World War II until the mid-1990s, housing prices were
fairly flat, as they were in the period from around 1920 to 1940. This suggests that
while a house may be used to store value, it may not generate a real increase in
wealth. It seems that over the long term, housing prices are not highly sensitive to
economic cycles, population growth, building costs, or even interest rates.
Since the early 2000s, however, housing prices have soared. Most economists
attribute this to a sustained period of low unemployment rates, low mortgage rates,
and economic growth. As bubbles do, this one eventually burst in 2007 as the
economy slumped into a recession. Housing demand and prices fell, even with low
mortgage rates, creating a real buyer’s market. Many economists attribute the
severity of the slump to the banking crisis that froze the credit markets, because
most housing purchases are financed with debt.
Ability to buy a house rests on the ability to finance the purchase, to provide a
down payment, and to borrow. That ability is determined by the buyer’s personal
situation (e.g., stability of employment or income, credit history) and by
macroeconomic events such as interest rate levels, expected inflation, and liquidity
in the credit markets. If interest rates and inflation are low and there is liquidity in
the credit markets, it will be easier for buyers to borrow than if inflation and
interest rates are high and the credit market is illiquid. Demand for housing thus
relies on the availability of credit for the housing market.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ conventional ownership,
◦ condominium,
◦ cooperative housing.
◦ structural elements;
◦ exterior elements;
◦ systems for plumbing, electrical, heating/cooling;
◦ outdoor buildings and features.
• Lenders assess income, current debts, and credit history to determine
the creditworthiness of borrowers.
• A mortgage affordability estimate uses an estimate of PITI and other
debt payments as a percentage of gross monthly income and of the
down payment as a percentage of the purchase price.
EXERCISES
◦ How large should the house be? How many bedrooms and
bathrooms?
◦ Which rooms are most important: kitchen, family room, or
home office?
◦ Do you need parking or a garage?
◦ Do you need storage space?
◦ Do you need disability accommodation?
◦ Do you want outside space: a yard, patio, deck?
◦ How important is privacy?
◦ How important is energy efficiency or other “green”
features?
◦ How important are design features and appearance?
◦ How important is location and environmental factors?
◦ Proximity to work? Schools? Shopping? Family and friends?
2. In your journal or My Notes describe hypothetically your first or next
home that you think you would like to own, including its location and
environment. Predict how much you think it might cost to own such a
home in your state. Then look through realty news and ads to find the
asking prices for homes or housing units similar to the one you
described. How accurate is your prediction?
3. Are you are a renter and likely to remain one for a few years? Read the
advice about renting housing at http://www.ehow.com/
how_111189_rent-apartment-house.html. How does that advice
compare with the information in this chapter about buying a house?
What advice, if any, would you add to the eHow.com site? Discuss with
classmates the ins and outs of being a tenant and the ins and outs of
being a landlord. Develop a comparison chart of benefits, drawbacks,
and risks.
4. Do you live in a dorm or at home with parents or other relatives? What
needs to happen for you to have a place of your own? Research Web sites
that aid students in finding independent housing, such as
http://collegelife.about.com/od/livingoffcampus/ht/Apartments.htm
and http://www.gooffcampus.com/. Develop a flexible plan and
timetable for finding and financing a place of your own and record it in
your personal finance journal.
5. Investigate the real estate market in your area. How do local housing
availability and pricing differ from other cities and towns, counties, and
states? Use online resources to find this information, such as
HousingPredictor.com, which provides independent real estate market
forecasts for local housing markets for all fifty U.S. states, or
RealtyTimes.com, an industry news source that likewise analyzes local
real estate markets nationwide. How stable or volatile is your real estate
market? Is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market, and what does that
mean? To what local factors do you attribute the differences you find?
Share your findings with classmates.
6. Identify and analyze the macroeconomic factors that are affecting your
local real estate market. In what ways or to what extent does your local
economy reflect macroeconomic factors in the national economy?
According to the National Association of Realtors
(http://www.realtor.org/research), what are the most important
present trends in the real estate market? If you were shopping for a new
or existing home today, or were planning to build, how would each
macroeconomic factor and each trend you identify likely affect your
choices? Record your answers in My Notes or your personal finance
journal.
7. View the 2009 CBS News Money Matters video “Tips for First-Time Home
Buyers” at http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=2947766n. What
do the commentators mean when they describe the current housing
market as a buyer’s market? What are four tips for avoiding overpaying
for a home? Now view Bloomberg’s Your Money video on “Buying a
Home” at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnvirEoxRaQ. According
to the experts in this video, what are the first two steps in buying a
home? Other videos in the Bloomberg series cover related topics, such as
renting versus buying, tips on financing, and so on.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Just as your house may be your most significant purchase, your mortgage may be
your most significant debt. The principal may be many times one year’s disposable
income and may need to be paid over fifteen or thirty years. The house secures the
loan, so if you default or miss payments, the lender may foreclose8 on your house
or claim ownership of the property, evict you, and resell the house to recover what
you owed. You may lose not only your house but also your home.
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Chapter 9 Buying a Home
gets repaid right away, allowing it to make more loans. As long as you continue to
make your payments, your only interaction is with the bank that is servicing the
loan. Alternatively, local banks may earmark a percentage of mortgages to keep “in
house” rather than sell.
The U.S. government assists some groups to obtain home loans, such as Native
Americans, Americans with disabilities, and veterans. See, for example,
http://www.homeloans.va.gov/ondemand_ vets_stream_video.htm.
Keep in mind that the costs discussed in this chapter, associated with various kinds
of mortgages, may change. The real estate market, government housing policies,
and government regulation of the mortgage financing market may change at any
time. When it is time for you to shop for a mortgage, therefore, be sure you are
informed of current developments.
Down Payment
The size of the down payment does not affect the price of the house, but it can
affect the cost of the financing. For a certain house price, the larger the down
payment, the smaller the mortgage and, all things being equal, the lower the
monthly payments. An example of a thirty-year mortgage is shown in Figure 9.9
"Down Payment and Monthly Payment".
Usually, if the down payment is less than 20 percent of the property’s sale price, the
borrower has to pay for private mortgage insurance10, which insures the lender
against the costs of default. A larger down payment eliminates this expense for the
borrower.
The down payment can offset the annual cost of the financing, but it creates
opportunity cost and decreases your liquidity as you take money out of savings.
Cash will also be needed for the closing costs11 or transaction costs of this purchase
or for any immediate renovations or repairs. Those needs will have to be weighed
against your available cash to determine the amount of your down payment.
Monthly Payment
The monthly payment is the ongoing cash flow obligation of the loan. If you don’t
pay this payment, you are in default on the loan and may eventually lose the house
with no compensation for the money you have already put into it. Your ability to
make the monthly payment determines your ability to keep the house.
The interest rate and the maturity (lifetime of the mortgage) determine the
monthly payment amount. With a fixed-rate mortgage12, the interest rate remains
the same over the entire maturity of the mortgage, and so does the monthly
payment. Conventional mortgages are fixed-rate mortgages for thirty, twenty, or
fifteen years.
The longer the maturity, the greater the interest rate, because the lender faces
more risk the longer it takes for the loan to be repaid.
10. Insurance that insures the
lender against any losses
incurred by the costs of a loan A fixed-rate mortgage is structured as an annuity: regular periodic payments of
default. equal amounts. Some of the payment is repayment of the principal and some is for
the interest expense. As you make a payment, your balance gets smaller, and so the
11. Transaction costs of the home
purchase, including appraisal interest portion of your next payment is smaller, and the principal payment is
fees, title, fee, and title larger. In other words, as you continue making payments, you are paying off the
insurance; closing costs are balance of the loan faster and faster and paying less and less interest.
paid at the closing or purchase
of the home.
12. A mortgage loan with a fixed An example of a mortgage amortization13, or a schedule of interest and principal
interest rate over the life of the payments over the life of the loan, is shown in Figure 9.10 "A Mortgage
loan. Amortization: Year One of a Thirty-Year, Fixed-Rate 6.5 Percent Mortgage". The
13. A schedule of mortgage mortgage is a thirty-year, fixed-rate mortgage. Only year one is shown, but the
payments showing the spreadsheet extends to show the amortization over the term of the mortgage.
amounts of each payment that
pay interest and that pay
principal.
Figure 9.10 A Mortgage Amortization: Year One of a Thirty-Year, Fixed-Rate 6.5 Percent Mortgage
In the early years of the mortgage, your payments are mostly interest, while in the
last years they are mostly principal. It is important to distinguish between them
because the mortgage interest is tax deductible. That tax benefit is greater in the
earlier years of the mortgage, when the interest expense is larger.
Monthly mortgage payments can be estimated using the mortgage factor14. The
mortgage factor is a calculation of the payment per $1,000 of the mortgage loan,
given the interest rate and the maturity of the mortgage. Mortgage factors for
thirty-, twenty-, and fifteen-year mortgages are shown in Figure 9.11 "Mortgage
Factors for Various Mortgage Rates".
So, if you were considering purchasing a house for $250,000 with a $50,000 down
payment and financing the remaining $200,000 with a thirty-year, 6.5 percent
mortgage, then your monthly mortgage payment would be 6.32 × $200,000 ÷ 1,000 =
$1,264. If you used a fifteen-year mortgage, your monthly payment would be 8.71 ×
$200,000 ÷ 1,000 = $1,742. If you got the thirty-year mortgage but at a rate of 6
percent, your monthly payment would be $1,200.
Potential lenders and many Web sites provide mortgage calculators to do these
calculations, so you can estimate your monthly payments for a fixed-rate mortgage
if you know the mortgage rate, the term to maturity, and the principal borrowed.
Mortgage Designs
So far, the discussion has focused on fixed-rate mortgages, that is, mortgages with
fixed or constant interest rates, and therefore payments, until maturity. With an
adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)15, the interest rate—and the monthly
payment—can change. If interest rates rise, the monthly payment will increase, and
if they fall, it will decrease. By federal law, increases in ARM interest rates cannot
rise more than 2 percent at a time, but even with this rate cap16, homeowners with
ARMs are at risk of seeing their monthly payment increase. Borrowers can limit this
interest rate risk with a payment cap, which, however, introduces another risk.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are risky for borrowers. ARMs are usually offered at
15. A mortgage loan with a floating
or adjustable rate of interest. lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, however, and may be more affordable.
Borrowers who expect an increase in their disposable incomes, which would offset
16. A limit on the potential the risk of a higher payment, or who expect a decrease in interest rates, may prefer
adjustment to the mortgage
interest rate. an adjustable-rate mortgage, which can have a maturity of up to forty years.
Otherwise, a fixed-rate mortgage is better.
17. A limit to the potential
adjustment to the mortgage
payment. There are mortgages that combine fixed and variable rates—for example, offering a
18. A mortgage that offers a fixed rate for a specified period of time, and then an adjustable rate. Another type
shorter maturity but with of mortgage is a balloon mortgage18 that offers fixed monthly payments for a
lower payments and a large specified period, usually three, five, or seven years, and then a final, large
principal balance due at
repayment of the principal. There are option ARMs, where you pay either interest
maturity.
only or principal only for the first few years of the loan, which makes it more
affordable. While you are paying interest only, however, you are not accumulating
equity in your investment.
As an asset, a house may be used to secure other types of loans. A home equity
loan19 or a second mortgage allows a homeowner to borrow against any equity in
the home. A home improvement loan is a type of home equity loan. A home equity
line of credit (HELOC)20 allows the homeowner to secure a line of credit, or a loan
that is borrowed and paid down as needed, with interest paid only on the
outstanding balance. A reverse mortgage21 is designed to provide homeowners
with high equity a monthly income in the form of a loan. A reverse mortgage
essentially is a loan against your home that you do not have to pay back for as long
as you live there. To be eligible for most reverse mortgages, you must own your
home and be sixty-two years of age or older. You or your estate repays the loan
when you sell the house or die.
Points
Points22 are another kind of financing cost. One point is one percent of the
mortgage. Points are paid to the lender as a form of prepaid interest when the
mortgage originates and are used to decrease the mortgage rate. In other words,
paying points is a way of buying a lower mortgage rate.
In deciding whether or not it is worth it to pay points, you need to think about the
difference that the lower mortgage rate will make to your monthly payment and
how long you will be paying this mortgage. How long will it take for the points to
pay for themselves in reduced monthly payments? For example, suppose you have
19. A loan secured by home equity
value.
the following choices for a thirty-year, fixed rate, $200,000 mortgage: a mortgage
rate of 6.5 percent with no points or a rate of 6 percent with 2 points.
20. A loan secured by home equity
value, structured such that
principal may be borrowed First, you can calculate the difference in your monthly payments for the two
only as needed, and interest
different situations. Using the mortgage factor for a thirty-year mortgage, the
paid only on the balance
outstanding. monthly payments in each case would be the mortgage factor × $200,000 ÷ 1,000 or
22. One percent of the mortgage Paying the two points buys you a lower monthly payment and saves you $64 dollars
value, used as prepaid interest per month. The two points cost $4,000 (2 percent of $200,000). At the rate of $64 per
paid at time of purchase.
month, it will take 62.5 months ($4,000 ÷ 64) or a little over five years for those
points to pay for themselves. If you do not plan on having this mortgage for that
long, then paying the points is not worth it. Paying points has liquidity and
opportunity costs up front that must be weighed against its benefit. Points are part
of the closing costs, but borrowers do not have to pay them if they are willing to
pay a higher interest rate instead.
Closing Costs
Other costs of a house purchase are transaction costs, that is, costs of making the
transaction happen that are not direct costs of either the home or the financing.
These are referred to as closing costs, as they are paid at the closing, the meeting
between buyer and seller where the ownership and loan documents are signed and
the property is actually transferred. The buyer pays these closing costs, including
the appraisal fee, title insurance, and filing fee for the deed.
The lender will have required an independent appraisal23 of the home’s value to
make sure that the amount of the mortgage is reasonable given the value of the
house that secures it. The lender will also require a title search24 and contract for
title insurance25. The title company will research any claims or liens on the deed;
the purchase cannot go forward if the deed may not be freely transferred. Over the
term of the mortgage, the title insurance protects against flaws not found in the
title and any claims that may result. The buyer also pays a fee to file the property
23. An opinion of the market value deed with the township, municipality, or county. Some states may also have a
of a property done by a property transfer tax26 that is the responsibility of the buyer.
professional appraiser who is
familiar with the real estate
market and with housing, and Closings may take place in the office of the title company handling the transaction
who has been certified to do
appraisals.
or at the registry of deeds. Closings also may take place in the lender’s offices, such
as a bank, or an attorney’s office and usually are mediated between the buyer and
24. A search of public records to the seller through their attorneys. Lawyers who specialize in real estate ensure that
determine if there are any
restrictions or allowances on
all legal requirements are met and all filings of legal documents are completed. For
the property to be purchase, or example, before signing, home buyers have a right to review a U.S. Housing and
any liens, or debts such as a Urban Development (HUD) Settlement Statement twenty-four hours prior to the
mortgage balance, overdue closing. This document, along with a truth-in-lending disclosure statement, sets out
taxes, a mechanic’s lien, and so
on, that must be paid if the and explains all the terms of the transaction, all the costs of buying the house, and
property is sold. all closing costs. Both the buyer and the seller must sign the HUD document and are
legally bound by it.
25. Insurance purchased by the
purchaser of the property that
insures against any omission
from the title search.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• The percentage of the purchase price paid upfront as the down payment
will determine the amount that is borrowed. That principal balance on
the mortgage, in turn, determines the monthly mortgage payment.
• A larger down payment may make the monthly payment smaller but
creates the opportunity cost of losing liquidity.
• A fixed-rate mortgage is structured as an annuity; the monthly
mortgage payment can be calculated from the mortgage rate, the
maturity, and the principal balance on the mortgage.
• A fixed-rate mortgage has a fixed mortgage rate and fixed monthly
payments.
• An adjustable-rate mortgage may have an adjustable mortgage rate and/
or adjustable payments.
• A rate cap or a payment cap may be used to offset the effects of an
adjustable-rate mortgage on monthly payments.
• Points are borrowing costs paid upfront (rather than over the maturity
of the mortgage).
• Closing costs are transaction costs such as an appraisal fee, title search
and title insurance, filing fees for legal documents, transfer taxes, and
sometimes realtors’ commissions.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Now that you’ve chosen your home and figured out the financing, all that’s left to
do is sign the papers, right?
Once you have found a house, you will make an offer to the seller, who will then
accept or reject your offer. If the offer is rejected, you may try to negotiate with the
seller or you may decide to forgo this purchase. If your offer is accepted, you and
the seller will sign a formal agreement called a purchase and sale agreement27,
specifying the terms of the sale. You will be required to pay a nonrefundable
deposit, or earnest money28, when the purchase and sale agreement is signed. That
money will be held in escrow29 or in a restricted account and then applied toward
the closing costs at settlement.
27. The legally binding agreement
that sets the terms of the
property transaction as agreed The purchase and sale agreement will include the following terms and conditions:
to by buyer and seller.
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Chapter 9 Buying a Home
Property disclosures of any problems with the property that must be legally
disclosed, which vary by state, except that lead-paint disclosure is a federal
mandate for any housing built before 1978.
After the purchase and sale agreement is signed, any conditions that it specified
must be fulfilled before the closing date. If those conditions are the seller’s
responsibility, you will want to be sure that they have been fulfilled before closing.
Read all the documents before you sign them and get copies of everything you sign.
Do not hesitate to ask questions. You will live with your mortgage, and your house,
for a long time.
Capital Expenditures
A house and property need care; even a new home will have repair and
maintenance costs. These costs are now a part of your living expenses or operating
budget.
If you have purchased a home that requires renovation or repair, you will decide
how much of the work you can do immediately and how much can be done on an
annual basis. A capital budget is helpful to project these capital expenditures and
plan the income or savings to finance them. You can prioritize these costs by their
urgency and by how they will be done.
Early Payment
Two financing decisions may come up during the life of a mortgage: early
payment31 and refinancing32. Some mortgages have an early payment penalty33
that fines the borrower for repaying the loan before it is due, but most do not. If
your mortgage does not, you may be able to pay it off early (before maturity) either
with a lump sum or by paying more than your required monthly payment and
having the excess payment applied to your principal balance.
If you are thinking of paying off your mortgage with a lump sum, then you are
weighing the value of your liquidity, the opportunity cost of giving up cash, against
the cost of the remaining interest payments. The cost of giving up your cash is the
loss of any investment return you may otherwise have from it. You would compare
that to the cost of your mortgage, or your mortgage rate, less the tax benefit that it
provides.
For example, suppose you can invest cash in a money market mutual fund (MMMF)
that earns 7 percent. Your mortgage rate is 6 percent, and your tax rate is 25
percent. Your mortgage costs you 6 percent per year but saves you 25 percent of
that in taxes, so your mortgage really only costs you 4.5 percent, or 75 percent of 6
percent. After taxes, your MMMF earns 5.25 percent, or 75 percent of 7 percent.
31. Redemption or paying back the Since your cash is worth more to you as a money market investment where it nets
mortgage loan before its 5.25 percent than it costs you in mortgage interest (4.5 percent), you should leave it
maturity.
in the mutual fund and pay your mortgage incrementally as planned.
32. Attaining a new mortgage and
simultaneously paying off the
old mortgage. On the other hand, if your money market mutual fund earns 5 percent, but your
mortgage rate is 8 percent and you are in the 25 percent tax bracket, then the real
33. A cash penalty for the
borrower for an early payment;
cost of your mortgage is 6 percent, which is more than your cash can earn. You
this clause is not included in all would be better off using the cash to pay off your mortgage and eliminating that 6
mortgages. percent interest cost.
You also need to weigh the use of your cash to pay off the mortgage versus other
uses of that cash. For example, suppose you have some money saved. It is earning
less than your after-tax mortgage interest, so you are thinking of paying down the
mortgage. However, you also know that you will need a new car in two years. If you
use that money to pay down the mortgage now, you won’t have it to pay for the car
two years from now. You could get a car loan to buy the car, but the interest rate on
that loan will be higher than the rate on your mortgage, and the interest on the car
loan is not tax deductible. If paying off your mortgage debt forces you to use more
expensive debt, then it is not worth it.
One way to pay down a mortgage early without sacrificing too much liquidity is by
making a larger monthly payment. The excess over the required amount will be
applied to your principal balance, which then decreases faster. Since you pay
interest on the principal balance, reducing it more quickly would save you some
interest expense. If you have had an increase in income, you may be able to do this
fairly “painlessly,” but then again, there may be a better use for your increased
income.
Refinancing
You may think about refinancing your mortgage if better mortgage rates are
available. Refinancing means borrowing a new debt or getting a new mortgage and
repaying the old one. It involves closing costs: the lender will want an updated
appraisal, a title search, and title insurance. It is valuable to refinance if the
mortgage rate will be so much lower that your monthly payment will be
substantially reduced. That in turn depends on the size of your mortgage balance.
if you want to take gains from the house and use those
for consumption, then you are reducing the investment © 2010 Jupiterimages
returns on your home. You are also using nonrecurring Corporation
income to finance recurring expenses, which is not
sustainable. There is also a danger that property value
will decrease and you will be left with a mortgage worth
more than your home.
You may believe you are having trouble meeting your mortgage obligations because
they are not what you thought they would be. Lenders profit by lending. When you
are borrowing, it is important to understand the terms of your loan. If those terms
will adjust under certain conditions, you must understand what could happen to
your payments and to the value of your home. It is your responsibility to
understand these conditions. However, the lender has a responsibility to disclose
the lending arrangement and all its costs, according to federal and state laws
(which vary by state). If you believe that all conditions and terms of your mortgage
were not fairly disclosed, you should contact your state banking regulator or the
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). There are also
consumer advocacy groups that will help clarify the laws and explore any legal
recourse you may have.
Just as your lender has a legal obligation to be forthcoming and clear with you, you
have an obligation to be truthful. If you have misrepresented or omitted facts on
your mortgage application, you can be held liable for mortgage fraud. For example,
if you have overstated your income, misled the lender about your employment or
34. Intentional misrepresentation your intention to live in the house, or have understated your debts, you may be
or omission of facts
perpetrated by a borrower in prosecuted for mortgage fraud34. Other forms of mortgage fraud are more
the process of obtaining elaborate, such as inflating the appraisal amount in order to borrow more.
mortgage financing.
Mortgage fraud can be perpetrated by the borrower, appraiser, or loan officer who
originates the loan. Figure 9.15 "Mortgage Loan Fraud in the United States" shows
mortgage fraud in the United States through 2006—had the graph continued, you
would see even more fraud in 2007, just before the recent housing bubble burst.
Figure 9.15 Mortgage Loan Fraud in the United StatesFinancial Crimes Enforcement Network, “Mortgage Loan
Fraud: An Industry Assessment based upon Suspicious Activity Report Analysis,” November 2006,
http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/rp/reports/pdf/MortgageLoanFraud.pdf (accessed December 2, 2009).
During the recent housing bubble, mortgage fraud was aggravated by low interest
rates that encouraged more borrowing and lending, often when it was less than
prudent to do so.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• The purchase and sale agreement details the conditions of the sale.
• Conditions of the purchase and sale agreement must be met before the
closing.
• A capital budget can help you prioritize and budget for capital
expenditures.
• Early payment is the trade-off of interest expense versus the
opportunity cost of losing liquidity.
• Refinancing is the trade-off between lower monthly payments and
closing costs.
• Both borrowers and lenders have a responsibility to understand the
terms of the mortgage.
• Buyers, sellers, lenders, and brokers must be alert to predatory lending,
real estate scams, and possible cases of mortgage fraud.
• Default may result in the lender foreclosing on the property and
evicting the former homeowner.
EXERCISES
Introduction
Life is full of risks. You can try to avoid them or reduce their likelihood and
consequences, but you cannot eliminate them. You can, however, pay someone to
share them. That is the idea behind insurance.
There are speculative risks1, that is, risks that offer a chance of loss or gain, such
as developing a “killer app” that may or may not sell or investing in a corporate
stock that may or may not provide good returns. Such risks can be avoided simply
by not participating. They are almost always uninsurable.
There are pure risks2 of accidental or unintentional events, such as a car accident
or an illness. Pure risks are insurable because their probabilities can be calculated
precisely enough for the risk to be quantified, which means it can be priced, bought,
and sold.
Risk shifting3 is the process of selling risk to someone who then assumes the risk
and its consequences. Why would someone buy your risk? Because in a large
enough market, your risk can be diversified, which minimizes its cost.
2. The risk of accidental or The costs of insurance can also be lowered through risk © 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
unintentional events avoidance or reduction strategies. For example,
3. Selling risk to avoid bearing
installing an alarm system in your home may reduce
the full consequence of homeowners’ insurance premiums because that reduces
unintentional events. the risk of theft. Of course, installing an alarm system
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Chapter 10 Personal Risk Management: Insurance
has a cost too. Risk management is the strategic trade-off of the costs of reducing,
assuming, and shifting risks.
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Chapter 10 Personal Risk Management: Insurance
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
For example, you are liable for your dog’s attack on a pedestrian and for your fallen
tree’s damage to a neighbor’s fence. You also are liable for damage a friend causes
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Chapter 10 Personal Risk Management: Insurance
while driving your car with your permission and for injury to your invited guests
who trip over your lawn ornament, fall off your deck, or leave your party drunk.
Homeowner’s insurance insures both the structure and the personal possessions
that make the house your home. Renter’s insurance protects your possessions even
if you are not the owner of your dwelling. You may not think you need insurance
until you are the homeowner, but even when you don’t need to insure against
possible damage or liability for your dwelling, you can still insure your possessions.
Even if your furniture came from your aunt’s house or a yard sale, it could cost a lot
to replace.
6. Responsibility for another’s use A homeowners’ policy covers damage to the structure itself as well as any
of your possessions, or for
outbuildings on the property and, in some cases, even the landscaping or
another’s actions, under
certain circumstances. infrastructure on the grounds, such as a driveway.
• fire or lightning;
• windstorm or hail;
• explosion;
• riot or civil commotion;
• damage caused by aircraft;
• damage caused by vehicles;
• smoke;
• vandalism or malicious mischief;
• theft;
• volcanic eruption;
• falling objects;
• weight of ice, snow, or sleet;
• accidental discharge or overflow of water or steam from within a
plumbing, heating, air conditioning, or automatic fire-protective
sprinkler system, or from a household appliance;
• sudden and accidental tearing apart, cracking, burning, or bulging of a
steam or hot water heating, air conditioning, or automatic fire-
protective system;
• freezing of a plumbing, heating, air conditioning, or automatic fire-
protective sprinkler system, or of a household appliance;
• sudden and accidental damage from artificially generated electrical
current (does not include loss to a tube, transistor, or similar
electronic component).
Note that floods and earthquakes are not covered. A homeowner in a flood- or
earthquake-prone area may buy special coverage, either from a private insurer or
from a federal or state program.
Homeowners’ insurance covers the less direct costs of hazards as well. For example,
the costs of removing damaged goods or temporary repairs are covered. The cost of
temporary housing and extra living expenses while repairs are made is covered,
although usually for a limited time or amount.
Homeowners’ policies cover liability for injuries on the property and for injuries
that the homeowner may accidentally inflict. You may also want to add an
umbrella policy9 that covers personal liabilities such as slander, libel, and
defamation of character. An umbrella policy may also extend over other assets,
such as vehicles or rentals covered by other insurance carriers. If you participate in
activities where you are assuming responsibilities for others—you are taking the
Cub Scout pack out for a hike, for example, or volunteering at your local recycling
center—you may want such extended liability coverage available through your
homeowners’ policy (also available separately).
The amount of the premium is determined by the insurer’s risk—the more risk, the
higher the premium. Risk is determined by
To gauge the risk of the insured, the insurer needs information about your personal
circumstances and history, the nature of the property, and the amount of coverage
desired for protection. This information is summarized in Figure 10.4 "Factors that
Determine Insurance Premiums".
Insurers may offer discounts for enhancements that lower risks, such as alarm
systems or upgraded electrical systems. (Smoke detectors are required by law in
every state.) You also may be offered a discount for being a loyal customer, for
example, by insuring both your car and home with the same company. Be sure to
ask your insurance broker about available discounts for the following:
The average premium for homeowners insurance in 2006 in the United States was
$804 a year, and for renters insurance was $189 a year. That year, Arizona
homeowners paid an average of $640 for insurance that cost $1,409 in
Texas.Insurance Information Institute, http://www.iii.org/media/facts/
statsbyissue/homeowners (accessed May 3, 2009). Premiums can vary, even for the
same levels of coverage for the same insured. You should compare policies offered
by different insurers to shop around for the best premium for the coverage you
want.
If you own and drive a car, you must have car insurance. Your car accident may
affect not only you and your car, but also the health and property of others. A car
accident often involves a second party, and so legal and financial responsibility
must be assigned and covered by both parties. In the United States, financial
responsibility laws in each state mandate minimal car insurance, although what’s
“minimal” varies by state.
Some states in the United States and provinces in Canada have adopted some form
of no-fault insurance14, in which, regardless of fault, an injured’s own insurance
covers his or her damages and injuries, and a victim’s ability to sue the driver at
fault is limited. The idea is to lower the incidence of court cases and speed up
compensation for victims. The states with compulsory no-fault auto insurance, in
which personal injury protection (PIP) is required, include Florida, Hawaii, Kansas,
Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, North
Dakota, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Puerto Rico. Eleven other states use no-fault as
add-on or optional insurance.Insurance Information Institute, http://www.iii.org/
media/hottopics/insurance/nofault (accessed May 3, 2009). The remaining states in
14. A system of auto insurance
where the insured’s insurance the United States use the conventional tort system (suing for damages in court).
covers physical and property Understanding the laws of the state where you drive will help you to make better
damage and liability, insurance decisions.
regardless of “fault”
determined.
Auto insurance policies cover two types of consequences: bodily injury and
property damage. Each covers three types of financial losses. Figure 10.5
"Automobile Insurance Coverage" shows these different kinds of coverage.
16. Responsibility for financial Bodily injury liability15 refers to the financial losses of people in the other car that
losses from injuries sustained are injured in an accident you cause, including their medical expenses, loss of
in an accident for people inside
income, and your legal fees. Injuries to people in your car or to yourself are covered
of the car of the driver at fault.
by medical payments coverage16. Uninsured motorist protection17 covers your
17. Coverage of financial losses injuries if the accident is caused by someone with insufficient insurance or by an
from injuries sustained in an
unidentified driver.
accident if the driver at fault
has insufficient insurance.
18. Responsibility for damage to Property damage liability18 covers the costs to other people’s property from
property owned by people damage that you cause, while collision19 covers the costs of damage to your own
other than the driver at fault. property. Collision coverage is limited to the market value of the car at the time,
19. Responsibility for damage to usually defined by the National Automobile Dealers Association’s (NADA) Official
the property of the driver at Used Car Guide or “blue book” (http://www.nada.org). To reduce their risk, the
fault. lenders financing your car loan will require that you carry adequate collision
Auto insurance coverage is limited, depending on the policy. The limits are typically
stated in numbers representing thousands of dollars. For example, 100/300/50
means that $100,000 is the limit on the payment to one person in an accident;
$300,000 is the limit on the amount paid in total (for all people) per accident; and
$50,000 is the limit on the amount of property damage liability that can be paid out.
Here’s an example of how it all works. Kit is driving home one night from a late
shift at the convenience store where he works. Sleepy, he drifts into the other lane
of the two-lane road and hits an oncoming car driven by Ray. Both Kit and Ray are
injured, and both cars are damaged. Figure 10.6 "Auto Insurance Coverage
Example" shows how Kit’s insurance will cover the costs.
As with any insurance, the cost of having an insurer assume risk is related to the
cost of that risk. The cost of auto insurance is related to three factors that create
risk: the car, the driver, and the driving environment—the region or rating
territory.
The model, style, and age of the car determine how costly it may be to repair or
replace, and therefore the potential cost of damage or collision. The higher that
cost is, the higher the cost of insuring the car. For example, a 2009 luxury car will
20. Coverage for damage from
cost more to insure than a 2002 sedan. Also, different models have different safety
hazards. features that may lower the potential cost of injury to passengers, and those
features may lower the cost of insurance. Different models may come with different
security devices or be more or less attractive to thieves, affecting the risk of theft.
The driver is an obvious source of risk as the operator of the car. Insurers use
various demographic factors such as age, education level, marital status, gender,
and driving habits to determine which kinds of drivers present more risk. Not
surprisingly, young drivers (ages sixteen to twenty-four) of both sexes and elderly
drivers (over seventy) are the riskiest. Twice as many males as females die in auto
accidents, but more females suffer injuries. Nationally, in any year your chances of
being injured in a car accident are about one in a thousand.U.S. Census Bureau, The
Disaster Center, http://www.disastercenter.com/traffic (accessed May 3, 2009).
Your driving history and especially your accident claim history can affect your
premiums, as well as your criminal record and credit score. In some states, an
accident claim can double your cost of insurance over a number of years. Your
driving habits—whether or not you use the car to commute to work, for
example—can affect your costs as well. Some states offer credits or points that
reduce your premium if you have a safe driving record, are a member of the
American Automobile Association (AAA), or have passed a driver education course.
Where you live and drive also matters. Insurers use police statistics to determine
rates of traffic accidents, auto theft, and vandalism, for example. If you are in an
accident-prone area or higher crime region, you may be able to offset those costs by
installing safety and security features to your car.
Premium rates vary, so you should always shop around. You can shop through a
broker or directly. Online discount auto insurers have become increasingly popular
in recent years. Their rates may be lower, but the same cautions apply as for other
high-stakes transactions conducted online.
Also, premiums are not the only cost of auto insurance. You should also consider
the insurer’s reliability in addressing a claim. Chances are you rely on your car to
get to school, to work, or for your daily errands or recreational activities. Your car
is also a substantial investment, and you may still be paying off debt from financing
your car. Losing your car to repairs and perhaps being injured yourself is no small
inconvenience and can seriously disrupt your life. You want to be working with an
insurer who will cooperate in trying to get you and your car back on the road as
soon as possible. You can check your insurer’s reputation by the record of
complaints against it, filed with your state’s agency of banking and insurance, or
with your state’s attorney general’s office.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Melissa is a medical transcriptionist who runs a cleaning service on the side. She
usually clears about $24,000 per year from the cleaning service and has come to rely
on that money. One day, Melissa slips on a wet floor. She is taken by ambulance to
the local hospital, where she is treated for a badly broken wrist and released the
next day. Melissa can’t clean for about eight weeks, losing close to $6,000 in
earnings.
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Chapter 10 Personal Risk Management: Insurance
Health Benefits: 2008 Annual Survey,” September 2008. Even where employers
“provide” health insurance as an employee benefit, in other words, workers are
paying an increasing share of the premium. In 2008, that share averaged 27
percent.National Coalition on Health Care, “Health Insurance Costs,” 2009,
http://www.nchc.org (accessed May 3, 2009). A 2005 “study found that 50 percent of
all bankruptcy filings were partly the result of medical expenses. Every 30 seconds
in the United States someone files for bankruptcy in the aftermath of a serious
health problem.”David U. Himmelstein, Deborah Thorne, Elizabeth Warren, and
Steffie Woolhandler, “Medical Bankruptcy in the United States, 2007: Results of a
National Study,” American Journal of Medicine 122, no. 8 (August 2009): 741–46.
Even if you think those numbers are exaggerated, it’s still sobering, because no
matter how much you try to take care of yourself and to be careful, no one can
evade the pure risk of injury or illness. All you can do is try to shift that risk in a
way that makes sense for your financial health.
Because of the increasing costs of health care and the increasing complexities of
paying for them, the distribution and financing of health care is much discussed
and debated in the United States, especially the roles of the federal government and
insurance providers. Regardless of the outcome of this debate, momentum is
building for change. You should be aware of changes as they occur so that you can
incorporate those changes into your budget and financial plans.
There are many different kinds of coverage and plans for health insurance. You
may have group health insurance offered as an employee benefit or as a member of
a professional association. Group plans have lower costs, because the group has
some bargaining power with the insurer and can generally secure lower rates for its
members. But group plans are not necessarily comprehensive, so you may want to
supplement the group coverage with an individual health insurance policy,
available to individuals and families.
Sufficient coverage should include basic insurance21 and major medical insurance.
A basic insurance policy will cover physician expense, surgical expense, and
hospital expense.
Frequently, these coverages are capped or limited. For example, hospital expense
coverage is typically limited to a certain amount per day or a certain number of
days per incident. Surgeon’s fees are often capped.
Each of these payment features represents responsibilities of the insured, that is,
your out-of-pocket costs. The more costs you shoulder, the less risk to the insurer,
and so the less you pay for the insurance policy. Making you responsible for initial
costs also discourages you from seeking health care more than is necessary or from
submitting frivolous health care claims.
Costs vary with coverage, coverage limits, and offsets, and they vary widely
between insurers. You should be well informed as to the specifics of your coverage,
and you should compare rates before you buy. An insurance broker can help you to
do this, and there are Web sites designed to help you explore the available options.
See, for example, the health insurance consumer guide and resource links from the
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services at http://www.ahrq.gov/consumer/
insuranceqa/.
Health insurance is sold through private insurers, nonprofit service plans, and
managed care organizations. Private insurers sell most of their plans to employers
as group plans. Individuals are far more likely to purchase insurance through a
service plan or managed care.
Private (for-profit) plans in most states are underwritten based on your age, weight,
smoking status, and health history and are generally more expensive than other
types of plans. You may have to take a medical exam, and specific preexisting
conditions—such as asthma, heart disease, anxiety, or diabetes—could be excluded
from coverage or used as grounds for increasing the cost of your premium, based on
your higher risk. Nevertheless, federal and state laws protect you from being denied
health care coverage because of any preexisting condition.
A service plan such as Blue Cross/Blue Shield, for example, consists of regional and
state-based nonprofit agencies that sell both group and individual policies. More
than half of the health insurance companies in the United States are nonprofits,
including, for example, Health Care Service Corporation and Harvard Pilgrim
Health Care as among the largest (http://www.nonprofithealthcare.org/resources/
27. Organizations or networks of
BasicFactsAndFigures-NonprofitHealthPlans9.9.08.pdf).
health care providers based on
the principle of providing
preventative care in order to Managed care organizations27 became popular in the last thirty years or so with
better health and lower costs the idea that providing preventative care would lower health care costs. Managed
of health care. Such care takes the following forms:
organizations also provide for
emergency and special
treatment services under
• Health maintenance organizations
various systems.
The two most familiar kinds of managed care are health maintenance organizations
(HMOs) and preferred provider organizations (PPOs). A health maintenance
organization28 directly hires physicians to provide preventative, basic, and
supplemental care. Preventative care should include routine exams and screening
tests and immunizations. Basic care should include inpatient and outpatient
treatments, emergency care, maternity care, and mental health and substance
abuse services. As with any plan, the details for what defines “basic care” will vary,
and you should check the fine print to make sure that services are provided. For
example, the plan may cover inpatient hospitalizations for a limited number of days
in case of a physical illness, but inpatient hospitalization for a more limited number
of days for a mental illness.
Supplemental care typically includes the cost of vision and hearing care,
prescriptions, prosthetics devices, or home health care. Some or all of this coverage
may be limited, or may be available for an added premium. The premium paid to
the HMO is a fixed, monthly fee, and you must seek care only within the HMO’s
network of care providers.
The most serious constraint of HMOs is the limited choice of doctors and the need
to get a referral from your primary care physician (PCP) to obtain the services of
any specialist. Depending on where you live and the availability of medical
practitioners, this may or may not be an issue for you, but before joining an HMO,
you should consider the accessibility and convenience of the care that you are
allowed, as well as the limitations of the coverage. For example, if you are
diagnosed with a serious disease or need a specific surgical technique, is there an
28. An organization to provide
“managed care” through appropriate specialist in the network that you can consult? Suppose you want a
reliance on primary care second opinion? The rules differ among HMOs, but these are the kinds of questions
physicians and a network of that you should be asking. You should also be familiar with the HMO’s appeal
specialists, with an emphasis
procedures for coverage denied.
on preventative care.
The exclusive provider organization works much like the PPO, except that out-of-
network services are not covered at all and become out-of-pocket expenses for the
insured.
Figure 10.9 "Managed Care Choices" shows the differences in managed care options.
deduction made from your paycheck to your flexible spending account. The money
from your FSA may be used for care expenses not normally covered by your
plan—for example, orthodonture, elder care, or child care. At the end of the year,
any money remaining in your account is forfeited; that is, it does not roll over into
the next year. Unless you can foresee expenses within the coming year, flexible
spending may not be worth the tax break.
Figure 10.10 "Differences in Private Funding of Health Care" shows the differences
between these accounts.
bearing a lot of risk. If that risk has the potential to cause a financial disaster, it’s
too much.
If you have employer-sponsored health insurance and you leave your job, you may
be entitled to keep your insurance for eighteen months (or more under certain
circumstances). Under the 1985 Consolidated Budget Omnibus Reconciliation Act
(COBRA), an employee at a company with at least twenty employees who notifies
the employer of his or her intention to maintain health care coverage is entitled to
do so provided the employee pays the premiums. Some states extend this privilege
to companies with less than twenty employees, so you should check with your
state’s insurance commissioner. You may also be able to convert your group
coverage into an individual policy, although with more costly premiums.
The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) of 1996 addresses
issues of transferring coverage, especially as happens with a change of jobs. It
credits an insured for previous periods of insurance coverage that can be used to
offset any waiting periods for coverage of preexisting conditions. In other words, it
makes it easier for someone who is changing jobs to maintain continuous coverage
of chronic conditions or illnesses.Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services, http://www.cms.hhs.gov/
hipaaGenInfo/ (accessed November 24, 2009). (For more information, research the
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services at http://www.hhs.gov; see, for
example, http://www.hhs.gov/ocr/privacy/hipaa/administrative/statute/
hipaastatutepdf.pdf.)
The federal government, in concert with state governments, provides two major
programs to the general public for funding health care: Medicare and Medicaid. The
federal government also provides services to veterans of the armed forces, and
their spouses and dependents, provided they use veterans’ health care facilities and
providers (see http://www.va.gov).
Medicare34 was established in 1965 to provide minimal health care coverage for the
elderly, anyone over the age of sixty-five. Medicare offers hospital (Part A), medical
(Part B), combined medical and hospital (Part C), and prescription coverage (Part
D), as outlined in Figure 10.11 "Medicare Plans and Coverage".
Medicare is really a combination of privately and publicly funded health care; the
optional services all require some premium paid by the insured. You may not need
Medicare’s supplemental plans if you have access to supplemental insurance
provided by your former employer or by membership in a union or professional
organization.
Medicare does not cover all services. For example, it does not cover dental and
vision care, private nursing care, unapproved nursing home care, care in a foreign
country, and optional or discretionary (unnecessary) care.
Medicare also determines the limits on payments for services, but physicians may
charge more than that for their services (within limits determined by Medicare).
You would be responsible for paying the difference. For these reasons, it is
advisable to have supplemental insurance.
Need for long-term care is anticipated in older age, although anyone of any age may
need it. When you buy the policy, you may be far away from needing the coverage.
For that reason, many policies offer benefit limits indexed to inflation, to account
for cost increases that happen before you receive benefits.
The cost of a long-term care policy varies with your age, coverage, policy features
such as inflation indexing, and current health. As with any insurance purchase, you
should be as informed as possible, comparing coverage and costs before buying.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ deductibles,
◦ co-pays,
◦ coinsurance.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
As you have learned, assets such as a home or car should be protected from the risk
of a loss of value, because assets store wealth, so a loss of value is a loss of wealth.
Your health is also valuable, and the costs of repairing it in the case of accident or
illness are significant enough that it also requires insurance coverage. In addition,
however, you may have an accident or illness that leaves you permanently impaired
or even dead. In either case, your ability to earn income will be restricted or gone.
Thus, your income should be insured, especially if you have dependents who would
bear the consequences of losing your income. Disability insurance and life
insurance are ways of insuring your income against some limitations.
Disability Insurance
The costs of disability insurance are determined by the features and/or conditions
of the plan, including the following:
• Waiting period
• Amount of benefits
37. Insurance to protect the
insured against the risk of • Duration of benefits
being unable to earn wages or • Cause of disability
salary as a result of injury or • Payments for loss of vision, hearing, speech, or use of limbs
illness.
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Chapter 10 Personal Risk Management: Insurance
• Inflation-adjusted benefits
• Guaranteed renewal or noncancelable clause
In general, the greater the number of these features or conditions that apply, the
higher your premium.
All plans have a waiting period from the time of disability to the collection of
benefits. Most are between 30 and 90 days, but some are as long as 180 days. The
longer the waiting period is, generally, the less the premium.
Plans also vary in the amount and duration of benefits. Benefits are usually offered
as a percent of your current wages or salary. The more the benefits or the longer
the insurance pays out, the higher the premium. Some plans offer lifetime benefits,
while others end benefits at age sixty-five (the age of Medicare eligibility).
In addition, some plans offer benefits in the following cases, all of which carry
higher premiums:
You may already have some disability insurance through your employer, although
in many cases the coverage is minimal. You may also be eligible for Social Security
benefits from the federal government or workers’ compensation benefit from your
state if the disability is due to an on-the-job accident. Other providers of disability
benefits include the following:
You should know the coverage available to you and if you find it’s not adequate,
supplement it with private disability insurance.
Life Insurance
Life insurance38 is a way of insuring that your income will continue after your
death. If you have a spouse, children, parents, or siblings who are dependent on
your income or care, your death would create new financial burdens for them. To
avoid that, you can insure your dependents against your loss, at least financially.
There are many kinds of life insurance policies. Before purchasing one, you should
determine what it is you want the insurance to accomplish for your survivors. What
do you want it to do?
These are uses of life insurance. Your goals for your life insurance will determine
how much benefit you need and what kind of policy you need. Weighed against that
are its costs—the amount of premium that you pay and how that fits into your
current budget.
Sam and Maggie have two children, ages three and five.
Maggie works as a credit analyst in a bank. Sam looks Figure 10.13
after the household and the children and Maggie’s
elderly mother, who lives a couple of blocks away. He
does her grocery shopping, cleans her apartment, does
her laundry, and runs any errands that she may need
done. Sam and Maggie live in a condo they bought,
financed with a mortgage. They have established college
savings accounts for each child, and they try to save
regularly. © 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
unless Sam returns to the workforce. With Sam’s death, Maggie would have to hire
someone to keep house and care for their children, and also someone to keep her
mother’s house and provide care for her. Insurance on Sam’s life should be enough
to maintain everyone’s quality of living.
Term Insurance
Maggie’s income provides for three expenditures: the mortgage, education savings,
and living expenses. While living expenses are an ongoing or permanent need, the
mortgage payment and the education savings are not: eventually, the mortgage will
be paid off and the children educated. To cover permanent needs, Maggie and Sam
should consider permanent insurance, also known as whole life39, straight life, or
cash value insurance. To insure those two temporary goals of paying the mortgage
and college tuitions, Maggie and Sam could consider temporary or term insurance.
Term insurance40 is insurance for a limited time period, usually one, five, ten, or
twenty years. After that period, the coverage stops. It is used to cover financial
needs for a limited time period—for example, to cover the balance due on a
mortgage, or education costs. Premiums are lower for term insurance, because the
coverage is limited. The premium is based on the amount of coverage and the
length of the time period covered.
A term insurance policy may have a renewability option, so that you can renew the
policy at the end of its term, or it may have a conversion option, so that you can
convert it to a whole life policy and pay a higher premium. If it is multiyear level
term or straight term, the premium will remain the same over the term of
coverage.
Decreasing term insurance pays a decreasing benefit as the term progresses, which
may make sense in covering the balance due on a mortgage, which also decreases
with payments over time. On the other hand, you could simply buy a one-year term
policy with a smaller benefit each year and have more flexibility should you decide
to make a change.
A return-of-premium (ROP) term policy will return the premiums you have paid if
you outlive the term of the policy. On the other hand, the premiums on such
39. Life insurance providing policies are higher, and you may do better by simply buying the regular term policy
coverage until the insured’s
death; it can also be used as an and saving the difference between the premiums.
investment instrument.
Term insurance is a more affordable way to insure against a specific risk for a
specific time. It is pure insurance, in that it provides risk shifting for a period of
time, but unlike whole life, it does not also provide a way to save or invest.
Whole life insurance is permanent insurance. That is, you pay a specified premium
until you die, at which time your specified benefit is paid to your beneficiary. The
amount of the premium is determined by the amount of your benefit and your age
and life expectancy when the policy is purchased.
Unlike term insurance, where your premiums simply pay for your coverage or risk
shifting, a whole life insurance policy has a cash surrender value41 or cash value
that is the value you would receive if you canceled the policy before you die. You
can “cash out” the policy and receive that cash value before you die. In that way,
the whole life policy is also an investment vehicle; your premiums are a way of
saving and investing, using the insurance company as your investment manager.
Whole life premiums are more than term life premiums because you are paying not
only to shift risk but also for investment management.
A variable life42 insurance policy has a minimum death benefit guaranteed, but the
actual death benefit can be higher depending on the investment returns that the
policy has earned. In that case, you are shifting some risk, but also assuming some
risk of the investment performance.
An adjustable life43 policy is one where you can adjust the amount of your benefit,
and your premium, as your needs change.
So, is it term or whole life? When you purchase a term life policy, you purchase and
pay for the insurance only. When you purchase a whole life policy, you purchase
insurance plus investment management. You pay more for that additional service,
so its value should be greater than its cost (in additional premiums). Whole life
policies take some analysis to figure out the real investment returns and fees, and
the insurer is valuable to you only if it is a better investment manager than you
could have otherwise. There are many choices for investment management. Thus,
the additional cost of a whole life policy must be weighed against your choices
among investment vehicles. If it’s better than your other choices, then you should
buy the whole life. If not, then buy term life and save or invest the difference in the
premiums.
Choosing a Policy
All life insurance policies have basic features, which then can be customized with a
rider45—a clause that adds benefits under certain conditions. The standard features
include provisions that protect the insured and beneficiaries in cases of missed
premium payments, fraud, or suicide. There are also loan provisions granted, so
that you can borrow against the cash value of a whole life policy.
Riders are actually extra insurance that you can purchase to cover less common
circumstances. Commonly offered riders include
Finally, you need to consider the settlement options offered by the policy: the ways
that the benefit is paid out to your beneficiaries. The three common options are
You would choose the various options depending on your beneficiaries and their
anticipated needs. Understanding these features, riders, and options can help you
to identify the appropriate insurance product for your situation. As with any
purchase, once you have identified the product, you need to identify the market
and the financing.
Many insurers offer many insurance products, usually sold through brokers or
agents. Agents are paid on commission, based on the amount of insurance they sell.
A captive agent sells the insurance of only one company, while an independent
agent sells policies from many insurers. You want a licensed agent that is
responsive and will answer questions patiently and professionally. If you die, this
may be the person on whom your survivors will have to depend to help them
receive their benefits in a troubling time.
Life insurance is about insuring your earnings even after your death. You can create
earnings during your lifetime by selling labor or capital. Your death precludes your
selling labor or earning income from salary or wages, but if you have assets that can
also earn income, they may be able to generate some or even enough income to
insure the continued comfort of your dependents, even without your salary or
wages.
In other words, the larger your accumulated asset base, the greater its earnings,
and the less dependent you are on your own labor for financial support. In that
case, you will need less income protection and less life insurance. Besides life
insurance, another way to protect your beneficiaries is to accumulate a large
enough asset base with a large enough earning potential.
If you can afford the life insurance premiums, then the money that you will pay in
premiums is currently part of your budget surplus and is being saved somehow. If it
is currently contributing to your children’s education savings or to your retirement
plan, you will have to weigh the value of protecting current income against insuring
your children’s education or your future income in retirement. Or that surplus
could be used toward generating that larger asset base.
These are tough decisions to weigh because life is risky. If you never have an
accident or illness and simply go through life earning plenty and paying off your
mortgage and saving for retirement and educating your children, then are all those
insurance premiums just wasted? No. Since your financial strategy includes
accumulating assets and earning income to satisfy your needs now or in the future,
you need to protect those assets and income, at least by shifting the risk of losing
them through a chance accident. At the same time, you must make risk-shifting
decisions in the context of your other financial goals and decisions.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
Introduction
While insurance is about protecting what you have, retirement and estate planning
is about protecting what you may have in the future. Insuring what you have means
finding the best way to protect it. Retirement planning, on the other hand, means
finding the best way to protect the life that you’d like to be living after you stop
earning income from employment. Estate planning involves protecting what you
have even after your death. So retirement planning and estate planning are plans to
create and then protect an accumulation of wealth.
Both types of planning also ask you to ask some of the following questions that you
really can’t answer:
Planning, especially for retirement, should start as early as possible, allowing the
most time for savings to occur and accrue. Ironically, that’s when it is hardest to try
to imagine answers to these questions. Understanding the practical means to
planning and saving for retirement can help you get started. If your plans are
flexible, they can adapt to the unexpected as it happens, which it inevitably will.
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Chapter 11 Personal Risk Management: Retirement and Estate Planning
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Retirement planning involves the same steps as any other personal planning: figure
out where you’d like to be and then figure out how to get there from where you are.
More formally, the first step is to define your goals, even if they are no more
specific than “I want to be able to afford a nice life after I stop getting a paycheck.”
But what is a “nice life,” and how will you pay for it?
It may seem impossible or futile to try to project your retirement needs so far from
retirement given that there are so many uncertainties in life and retirement may be
far away. But that shouldn’t keep you from saving. You can try to save as much as
possible for now, with the idea that your plans will clarify as you get closer to your
retirement, so whatever money you have saved will give you a head start.
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Chapter 11 Personal Risk Management: Retirement and Estate Planning
Chris and Sam need to project how much money they will need to have saved by the
time they wish to retire. To do that, they need to project both their future capital
needs (to buy the condo) and their future living expense in retirement. They also
need to project how long they may live after retirement, or how many years’ worth
of living expenses they will need, so that they won’t outlive their savings.
They know that they have thirty years over which to save this money. They also
know, as explained in Chapter 4 "Evaluating Choices: Time, Risk, and Value", that
time affects value. Thus, Sam and Chris need to project the rate of compounding for
their savings, or the rate at which time will affect the value of their money.
To estimate required savings, in other words, you need to estimate the following:
• Expenses in retirement
• The duration of retirement
• The return on savings in retirement
As difficult as these estimations seem, because it is a long time until retirement and
a lot can happen in the meantime, you can start by using what you know about the
present.
One approach is to assume that your current living expenses will remain about the
same in the future. Given that over the long run, inflation affects the purchasing
power of your income, you factor in the effect inflation may have so that your
purchasing power remains the same.
For example, say your living expenses are around $25,000 per year and you’d like to
have that amount of purchasing power in retirement as well. Assuming your costs
of living remain constant, if you are thirty years from retirement, how much will
you be spending on living expenses then?
The overall average annual rate of inflation in the United States is about 3.25
percent,The average is calculated over the period from 1913 to 2009. U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ (accessed May 1, 2009). so you would have
to spend $25,000 × (1 + 0.0325)30 = $65,269 per year to maintain your standard of
living thirty years from now. Put another way, thirty years from now, one dollar
will buy only about thirty-eight cents worth of today’s expenses. This calculation
comes from the relationship of time and value, studied in Chapter 4 "Evaluating
Choices: Time, Risk, and Value". In this case, $25,000 is the present value of your
expenses, and you are looking for the future value, given that your expenses will
appreciate at a rate of 3.25 percent per year for thirty years.
As you can see, you would need about two-and-a-half times your current spending
just to live the life you live now. Fortunately, your savings won’t be just “sitting
there” during that time. They, too, will be compounding to keep up with your
needs.
You may use your current expenses as a basis to project a more or less expensive
lifestyle after retirement. You may anticipate expenses dropping with fewer
household members and dependents, for example, after your children have grown.
Or you may wish to spend more and live a more comfortable life, doing things
you’ve always wanted to do. In any case, your current level of spending can be a
starting point for your estimates.
How much you need to have saved to support your annual living expenses after
retirement depends on how long those expenses continue or how long you’ll live
after retirement. In the United States, life expectancy at age sixty-five has increased
dramatically in the last century, from twelve to seventeen years for males and from
twelve to twenty years for females, due to increased access to health care, medical
advances, and healthier lives before age sixty-five.U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services, “Health, United States, 2008: With Special Feature on the Health of
Young Adults (Health United States),” Center for Disease Control, National Center
for Health Statistics, 2008. Figure 11.2 "Life Expectancy at Age 65 in the United
States, 1970–2005" shows the data from 1970 to 2005.
If life expectancy continues to increase at these rates, in thirty years your life
expectancy at age sixty-five could be twenty-eight to thirty years. In that case, your
retirement savings will have to provide for your living expenses for as long as thirty
years. Put another way, at age thirty-five you have thirty years to save enough to
support you for thirty years after that.
You can use what you know about time and value (from Chapter 4 "Evaluating
Choices: Time, Risk, and Value") to estimate the amount you would need to have
saved up by the time you retire. Your annual expenses in retirement are really a
series of cash flows that will grow by the rate of inflation. At the same time, your
savings will grow by your rate of return, even after you are making withdrawals to
cover your expenses.
Say that when you retire, you have your retirement funds invested so they are
earning a return of 5 percent per year. Assume an annual inflation rate of 3.25
percent and that your annual expenses when you retire are $65,269 (as adjusted for
inflation in the example above).
Figure 11.3 "Estimating Annual Expenses and Savings Needed at Retirement" shows
what your situation would look like.
The amount you need at retirement varies with the expected rate of return on your
savings. While you are retired, you will be drawing income from your savings, but
your remaining savings will still be earning a return. The more return your savings
can earn while you are retired, the less you have to have saved by retirement. The
less return your savings can earn in retirement, the more you need to have saved
before retirement.
In Figure 11.3 "Estimating Annual Expenses and Savings Needed at Retirement", the
total amount needed at retirement is only about $1.5 million if your remaining
savings will earn 5 percent while you are retired, but if that rate of return is only 2
percent, you would have to begin retirement with almost $2.5 million.
Let’s assume your return on savings is 5 percent. If you want to have $1,590,289 in
thirty years when you retire, you could deposit $367,957 today and just let it
compound for thirty years without a withdrawal. But if you plan to make an annual
investment in your retirement savings, how much would that have to be?
In the example above, if you make regular annual deposits into your retirement
account for the next thirty years, each deposit would have to be $23,936, assuming
that your account will earn 5 percent for in thirty years. If the rate of return for
your savings is less, you would have to save more to have more at retirement. If
your retirement savings can earn only 2 percent, for example, you would have to
deposit $60,229 per year to have $2,443,361 when you retire. Your retirement
account grows through your contributions and through its own earnings. The more
your account can earn before you retire, the less you will have to contribute to it.
On the other hand, the more you can contribute to it, the less it has to earn.
The time you have to save until retirement can make a big difference to the amount
you must save every year. The longer the time you have to save, the less you have to
save each year to reach your goal. Figure 11.4 "Time to Retirement and Annual
Savings Required" shows this idea as applied to the example above, assuming a 5
percent return on savings and a goal of $1,590,289.
The longer the time you have to save, the sooner you start saving, and the less you
need to save each year. Chris and Sam are already in their thirties, so they figure
they have thirty years to save for retirement. Had they started in their twenties and
had forty years until retirement, they would not have to save so much each year. If
they wait until they are around fifty, they will have to save a lot more each year.
The more you have to save, the less disposable income you will have to spend on
current living expenses, making it harder to save. Clearly, saving early and
regularly is the superior strategy.
When you make these calculations, be aware that you are using estimates to figure
the money you’ll need at retirement. You use the expected inflation rate, based on
its historic average, to estimate annual expenses, historical statistics on life
expectancy to estimate the duration of your retirement, and an estimate of future
savings returns. Estimates must be adjusted because things change. As you progress
toward retirement, you’ll want to reevaluate these numbers at least annually to be
sure you are still saving enough.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
While knowing the numbers clarifies the picture of your needs, you must reconcile
that picture with the realities that you face now. How will you be able to afford to
save what you need for retirement?
There are several savings plans structured to help you save—some offer tax
advantages, some don’t—but first you need to make a commitment to save.
Saving means not spending a portion of your disposable income. It means delaying
gratification or putting off until tomorrow what you could have today. That is often
difficult, as you have many demands on your disposable income. You must weigh
the benefit of fulfilling those demands with the cost of not saving for retirement,
even though benefit in the present is much easier to credit than benefit in the
future. Once you resolve to save, however, employer, government, and individual
retirement plans are there to help you.
Employers may sponsor pension or retirement plans for their employees as part of
1. A pension plan sponsored by
an employer in which the the employees’ total compensation. There are two kinds of employer-sponsored
employer commits to providing plans: defined benefit plans and defined contribution plans.
a specific amount of benefit
based on wages and tenure to
retired employees. A defined benefit plan1 is a retirement plan, sometimes called a pension plan2,
funded by the employer, who promises the employee a specific benefit upon
2. An employer-sponsored,
defined benefit plan providing retirement. The employer can be a corporation, labor union, government, or other
a regular, specified amount of organization that establishes a retirement plan for its employees. In addition to (or
pension, based on wages and instead of) a defined benefit plan, an employer may also offer a profit-sharing plan,
years of service.
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Chapter 11 Personal Risk Management: Retirement and Estate Planning
a stock bonus plan, an employee stock ownership plan (ESOP), a thrift plan, or other
plan. Each type of plans has advantages and disadvantages for employers and
employees, but all are designed to give employees a way to save for the future and
employers a way to attract and keep employees.
The payout for a defined benefit plan is usually an annual or monthly payment for
the remainder of the employee’s life. In some defined benefit plans, there is also a
spousal or survivor’s benefit. The amount of the benefit is determined by your
wages and length of service with the company.
Many defined benefit plans are structured with a vesting3 option that limits your
claim on the retirement fund until you have been with the company for a certain
length of time. For example, Paul’s employer has a defined benefit plan that
provides for Paul to be 50 percent vested after five years and fully vested after
seven years. If Paul were to leave the company before he had worked there for five
years, none of his retirement fund would be in his account. If he left after six years,
half his fund would be kept for him; after ten years, all of it would be.
With a defined benefit plan your income in retirement is constant or “fixed,” and it
is the employer’s responsibility to fund your retirement. This is both an advantage
and a disadvantage for the employee. Having your employer fund the plan is an
advantage, but having a fixed income in retirement is a drawback during periods of
inflation when the purchasing power of each dollar declines. In some plans, that
drawback is offset by automatic cost of living increases.
Defined benefit plans also carry some risk. Most companies reserve the right to
change or discontinue their pension plans. Furthermore, the pension payout is only
as good as the company that pays it. If the company defaults, its pension obligations
may be covered by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC)4, an
independent federal government agency. If not, employees are left without the
benefit. Even if the company is insured, the PGBC may not cover 100 percent of
employees’ benefits.
Founded in 1974, the PBGC is funded by insurance premiums paid by employers who
sponsor defined benefit plans. If a pension plan ends (e.g., through the employer’s
3. The process of earning full bankruptcy) the PBGC assumes pensions payments up to a limit per employee.
ownership in an employer-
Currently, the PBGC pays benefits to approximately 640,000 retirees and insures the
sponsored retirement plan
according to length of service. pensions of about 1,305,000 employees.The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation,
“Mission Statement,” http://www.pbgc.gov/about/about.html (accessed May 1,
4. An agency of the federal
2009). There is some concern, however, that if too many defined benefit sponsors
government that guarantees
defined benefit pensions in the fail, as could happen in a widespread recession, the PBGC would not be able to fully
case of employer default. fund its obligations.
To avoid the responsibility for employee retirement funds, more and more
employers sponsor defined contribution retirement plans5. Under defined
contribution plans, each employee has a retirement account, and both the
employee and the employer may contribute to the account. The employer may
contribute up to a percentage limit or offer to match the employee’s contributions,
up to a limit. With a matching contribution, if employees choose not to contribute,
they lose the opportunity of having the employer’s contribution as well as their
own. The employee makes untaxed contributions to the account as a payroll
deduction, up to a maximum limit specified by the tax code. The maximum for
defined contribution plans is 25 percent of the employee’s compensation, with a cap
in 2009 of $49,000. Defined contribution plans known as 401(k) plans had a
maximum contribution limit in 2009 of $16,500.
Defined contribution plans have become increasingly popular since section 401(k)
was introduced into the tax code in 1978. The 401(k) plans6—or 403b plans for
employees of nonprofits and 457 plans for employees of government
organizations—offer employees a pretax (or tax-deferred) way to save for
retirement to which employers can make a tax-deductible contribution.
The federal government offers a mandatory retirement plan for all citizens except
federal government employees and railroad workers, known as Social Security7.
Social Security is funded by a mandatory payroll tax shared by employee and
employer. That tax, commonly referred to as Federal Insurance Contributions Act
(FICA), also funds Medicare (see Chapter 10 "Personal Risk Management:
Insurance"). Social Security was signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt
in 1935 to provide benefits for old age and survivors and disability insurance for
workers (OASDI). The Social Security Administration (SSA) was established to
manage these “safety nets.”
Figure 11.6 President Franklin D. Roosevelt Signing the Social Security Act, August 14, 1935Library of Congress
photo, LC-US262-123278, http://www.ssa.gov/history/fdrsign.html (accessed May 1, 2009).
We can never insure one hundred percent of the population against one hundred
percent of the hazards and vicissitudes of life. But we have tried to frame a law
which will give some measure of protection to the average citizen and to his family
against the loss of a job and against poverty-ridden old age…It is, in short, a law
that will take care of human needs and at the same time provide for the United
States an economic structure of vastly greater soundness.
Many reforms to the system have been suggested, such as extending the eligibility
age, increasing the FICA tax to apply to more income (right now it applies only to a
limited amount of wages, but not to income from interest, dividends, or investment
gains), or having workers manage their Social Security accounts the same way they
manage 401(k) plans. Some of these proposals are based on economics, some on
politics, and some on social philosophy. Despite its critics, Social Security remains a
popular program on which many Americans have come to rely. You should,
however, be aware that Social Security can be amended and faces possible
underfunding.
Keep in mind that in 1935 when Social Security was created, life expectancy for
American males was only sixty-five, the age of Social Security eligibility. Social
Security was never meant to be a retirement income, but rather a supplement to
retirement income, merely “some measure of protection against…poverty-ridden
old age.”Retrieved from the Social Security Administration archives,
http://www.socialsecurity.gov/history/fdrstmts.html#signing (accessed November
23, 2009).
As part of the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS), the U.S. government
also offers special retirement plans to its employees, including a Thrift Savings Plan
(TSP) for civilians employed by the United States and members of the uniformed
services (i.e., Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, Coast Guard, National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration, and Public Health Service).
Any individual can save for retirement without a special “account,” but since the
government would like to encourage retirement savings, it has created tax-
advantaged accounts to help you do so. Because these accounts provide tax benefits
as well as some convenience, it is best to use them first in planning for retirement,
although their use may be limited.
Individual retirement accounts (IRAs) were created in 1974 by ERISA. They were
initially available only to employees not covered by an employer’s retirement plan.
In 1981, participation was amended to include everyone under the age of
70.5.Wikipedia, “Legislative History of IRAs,” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Because they create tax advantages, contributions to a Traditional IRA are limited,
currently up to $5,000 (or $6,000 for someone over the age of fifty). That limit on
deductible contributions becomes smaller (the tax benefit is phased out) as income
rises. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) provides a worksheet to calculate how
much of your contribution is taxable with your personal income tax return (Form
1040).
For the Roth IRA9, created in 1997, contributions are not tax deductible, but
withdrawals are not taxed. You can continue to contribute at any age, and you do
not have to take any minimum required distribution. The great advantage of a Roth
IRA is that capital appreciation is not taxed.
Figure 11.9 Differences between the Traditional and the Roth IRAs
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Your estate15 includes everything you own. Other aspects of financial planning
involve creating and managing your assets while you are alive. Estate planning is a
way to manage your assets after your death. Age is not really a factor, because
death can occur at any time, at any age, by any cause. Arranging for the disposition
of your estate is not a morbid concern but a kindness to those you leave behind.
Death is a legal and financial event—and in some cases a taxable event—as well as
an emotional one. Your loved ones will have to deal with the emotional aftermath
of your loss and will appreciate your care in planning for the legal and financial
outcomes of your death.
Wills
Since you won’t be here, you will need to leave a written document outlining your
instructions regarding your estate. That is your will16, your legal request for the
15. All real and personal property
distribution of your estate, that is, assets that remain after your debts have been
of a decedent at the time of
death, not including properties satisfied. If you die intestate17, or without a will, the laws of your state of legal
in joint ownership or assets residence will dictate the distribution of your estate.
that pass directly to a named
beneficiary.
You can write your own will so long as you are a legal adult and mentally
16. A legal document detailing the
disposition of assets upon competent. The document has to be witnessed by two or three people who are not
death. inheriting anything under the terms of the will, and it must be dated and signed
and, in some states, notarized. A holographic will18 is handwritten; it may be more
17. To die without a valid will,
leaving the disposition of difficult to validate. A statutory will19 is a preprinted will that you can buy from a
assets and debts to the law. store or in a software package. Consider, however, that a will is a legal document.
Having yours drawn up by a lawyer may better insure its completeness and validity
18. A handwritten or oral will.
in court.
19. A will written on a preprinted
form.
Probate20 is the legal process of validating a will and administering the payment of
20. The legal process of validating
debts and the distribution of assets by a probate court. Probate courts also
a will and overseeing the
orderly payment of debts and distribute property in the absence of a will. Probate is not required in every case,
the distribution of assets. however. Probate is not required if the deceased
352
Chapter 11 Personal Risk Management: Retirement and Estate Planning
Besides the details of “who gets what,” a will should name an executor21, the
person or persons who will administer the payment of your debts and the
distribution of your remaining assets, according to your wishes as expressed in your
will. If you have legal dependents, your will should name a guardian for them. You
may also include a “letter of last instruction” stating the location of important
documents, safe deposit keys, and bank accounts and specifying your funeral
arrangements.
There are several types of wills. A simple will22 leaves everything to a spouse. For
comparatively small estates that are not taxable (e.g., estates with assets under a
million dollars in value), a simple will may be the most appropriate kind. A
traditional marital share will23 leaves one-half of the estate to a spouse and the
other half to others, usually children. This may lower any tax burden on your estate
and your spouse’s.
Along with granting power of attorney, your living will may include a health care
proxy, requesting that medical personnel follow the instructions of a designated
family member who expresses your wishes concerning your end-of-life treatment.
Many people request, for example, that they not be revived or sustained if they
cannot experience some quality of life. Be sure to update your living will, however,
as over time your views may change and as medical and technological advances
change our notions of “quality of life.”
A trust27 is a legal entity created by a trustor, or grantor, who owns assets managed
by a trustee or trustees for the benefit of a beneficiary or beneficiaries. A
testamentary trust28 may be established by a will so that beneficiaries who are
26. The legal right to act on your unable to manage assets (minor children or disabled dependents) can benefit from
behalf should you become
unable to do so before your the assets but have them managed for them. A living trust29 is established while
death. the grantor is alive. Unlike a will, it does not become a matter of public record upon
your death. A revocable living trust30 can be revoked by the grantor, who remains
27. A legal entity created to own
and manage assets for the the owner of the assets, at any time. Such a trust avoids the probate process but
benefit of beneficiaries. may not shield assets from estate taxes. An irrevocable living trust31 cannot be
changed; the grantor gives up ownership of his or her assets, which passes to the
28. A trust created by a will that
becomes effective upon the trust, avoiding probate and estate taxes. However, the trust then becomes a
death of the grantor. separate taxable entity and pays tax on its accumulated income.
29. A trust created while the
grantor is alive. Another way to avoid probate and estate taxes is to gift assets to your beneficiaries
30. A trust created while the while you are alive. Ownership of the assets passes to the beneficiaries at the time
grantor is living that may be of the gift, so the assets are no longer included in your estate. The federal
revoked or changed by the government and many state governments levy a gift tax for gifts exceeding certain
grantor; therefore, ownership
limits. In 2009, the annual exclusion from federal tax was $13,000 per recipient, for
of the grantor’s assets remains
under the control of the example. Also, the federal government does not tax gifts to spouses and to pay
grantor. others’ medical bills or tuitions.
31. A trust created while the
grantor is living, that may not There are limits to this kind of tax-free distribution of funds, however. For example,
be revoked or changed by the
grantor. The trust is the federal government considers any “gift” you make within three years prior to
considered a legal entity, and your death as part of your taxable estate. Gifting nevertheless is a way to reduce the
ownership of the grantor’s value of an estate. Some parents also prefer to make funds available or to gift them
assets is transferred to the
to their children when the children need them more—for example, earlier in their
trust.
adult lives when they may not have accrued enough wealth to make a down
payment on a house.
Estate Taxes
Estate taxes diminish the value of your estate that will © 2010 Jupiterimages
be distributed to your beneficiaries. For that reason, one Corporation
of the purposes of estate planning is to try to minimize
those taxes.
The federal estate tax is “a tax on your right to transfer property at your
death.”U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Estate and Gift Taxes,” Internal Revenue
Service http://www.irs.gov (accessed May 3, 2009). In 2009, you are required to file
an estate tax return if the taxable estate is valued at $3,500,000 or more. In states
with estate taxes, you must file a return if the taxable estate value is more than
$1,000,000 or other similar cutoff amount. (For various philosophical and practical
reasons, the estate tax is the object of much political debate, so those filing limits
are subject to change.)
A taxable estate is the gross estate less allowable deductions. The tax law defines
the gross estate as the following:
• The value of all property in which you had an ownership interest at the
time of death
• Life insurance proceeds payable to your estate or, if you owned the
policy, to your heirs
• The value of certain annuities payable to your estate or your heirs
• The value of certain property you transferred within three years
before your deathU.S. Department of the Treasury, Publication 950,
Internal Revenue Service, 2009.
Allowable deductions include debts that you owed at the time of death, including
mortgage debt, your funeral expenses, the value of property passing directly to
your surviving spouse (the marital deduction), charitable gifts, and the state estate
Figure 11.12 "Estate Tax Filings in 2007" shows the scope of the estate tax in the U.S.
economy for 2007, the latest year for which data is available.
In the United States, with a total population of more than 306 million people, those
17,416 tax returns represent about 0.0057 percent of the population, paying about
0.9393 percent of the total taxes collected by the IRS in 2007.U.S. Department of the
Treasury, 2008, “SOI Tax Stats—IRS Data Book 2007,” Internal Revenue Service,
http://www.irs.gov/taxstats (accessed May 3, 2009).
While estate taxes tax your assets in your estate, inheritance taxes tax your assets
in the hands of your beneficiaries. Because of the costs involved, beneficiaries
potentially may not be able to afford to inherit or preserve wealth within the
family. For this reason and others, many states have redefined or repealed their
inheritance tax laws.
Estate taxes also can be more costly to beneficiaries if assets are not liquid—for
example, if a large portion of the value of your taxable estate is in your home or
business. Your survivors may be required to liquidate or sell assets just to pay the
estate taxes. To avoid that, some estate plans include purchasing a life insurance
policy for the anticipated amount of the estate tax, thus providing a source of liquid
funds or cash for tax payment.
Minimizing taxes owed is a goal of estate planning, but not the only goal. Your
primary objective is to see that your dependents are provided for by the
distribution of your assets and that your assets are distributed as you would wish
were you still there to distribute them yourself.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• A will describes your wishes for the distribution of your assets (the
estate) after your death.
• Probate courts distribute assets in the absence of a will and administer
wills in estates with assets valued above a certain (variable) dollar
amount.
EXERCISES
1. What are the estate tax laws in your state? Does your state tax income
from Social Security payments? Does your state tax pensions and other
sources of retirement income? How does your state treat inheritance
taxes and estate taxes? What tax breaks does your state offer to retirees?
Find answers to these questions by visiting
http://www.retirementliving.com/taxes-by-state.
2. Draft a holographic will or use a form for a statutory will recognized in
your state. Start by reviewing your balance sheet, showing your assets,
liabilities, net worth, and inventory of personal and household property.
Think about how you would want your estate to be distributed upon
your death. Identify an executor. Sample the free forms and advice for
writing a will at http://www.free-legal- document.com/how-to-write-a-
will.html and http://www.alllaw.com/forms/wills_and_trusts/
last_will_and_testam/. Find out what kind of document your state
requires for a “last will and testament” at http://www.medlawplus.com/
library/legal/lastwillandtestamentform.htm. Also consider drafting a
living will. What should be in a living will? See http://www.alllaw.com/
articles/wills_and_trusts/article7.asp. What form for a living will does
your state recognize as legal (see http://liv-
will1.uslivingwillregistry.com/forms.html)? What is the purpose of the
U.S. Living Will Registry? According to the video clips on “How to Write
Your Own Will” by lawyers at http://resources.lawinfo.com/en/Videos/
Wills/Federal/how-write-your-own-will.html, why and when should you
have a lawyer draw up your will or review a will you have written
yourself?
3. Survey information about living trusts (also called life estates in some
states) at NOLO.com at http://www.nolo.com/info/living-trust. When
and why might you want to create a living trust as an alternative to a
will? See http://www.investopedia.com/articles/pf/06/
revocablelivingtrust.asp. According to the National Consumer Law
Center, what questions should you ask to avoid becoming a victim of
living trust scams? See http://www.nclc.org/images/pdf/
older_consumers/consumer_concerns/
cc_avoiding_living_trust_scams.pdf.
Introduction
Saving to build wealth is investing. When people have too much money to spend
immediately, that is, a surplus of disposable income, they become savers or
investors. They transfer their surplus to individuals, companies, or governments
that have a shortage or too little money to meet immediate needs. This is almost
always done through an intermediary—a bank or broker—who can match up the
surpluses and the shortages. If the capital markets work well, those who need
money can get it, and those who can defer their need can try to profit from that.
When you invest, you are transferring capital to those who need it on the
assumption that they will be able to return your capital when you need or want it
and that they will also pay you for its use in the meantime.
Investing happens over your lifetime. In your early adult years, you typically have
little surplus to invest. Your first investments are in your home (although primarily
financed with the debt of your mortgage) and then perhaps in planning for
children’s education or for your retirement.
You may reach this stage earlier or later in your life, but
at some point, you begin to think beyond your
immediate situation and look to increase your real
wealth and to your future financial health. Investing is about that future.
359
Chapter 12 Investing
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Identify the features and uses of issuing, owning, and trading bonds.
2. Identify the uses of issuing, owning, and trading stocks.
3. Identify the features and uses of issuing, owning, and trading
commodities and derivatives.
4. Identify the features and uses of issuing, owning, and trading mutual
funds, including exchange-traded funds and index funds.
5. Describe the reasons for different instruments in different markets.
You have looked at using the money markets to save surplus cash for the short
term. Investing is primarily about using the capital markets to invest surplus cash
for the longer term. As in the money markets, when you invest in the capital
markets, you are selling liquidity.
The capital markets developed as a way for buyers to buy liquidity. In Western
Europe, where many of our ideas of modern finance began, those early buyers were
usually monarchs or members of the nobility, raising capital to finance armies and
navies to conquer or defend territories or resources. Many devices and markets
were used to raise capital,For a thorough history of the evolution of finance and
financial instruments, see Charles P. Kindleberger, A Financial History of Western
Europe (London: George Allen & Unwin, Ltd., 1984). but the two primary methods
that have evolved into modern times are the bond and stock markets. (Both are
discussed in greater detail in Chapter 15 "Owning Stocks" and Chapter 16 "Owning
Bonds", but a brief introduction is provided here to give you the basic idea of what
they are and how they can be used as investments.)
In the United States, 47 percent of the adult population owns stocks or bonds, most
through retirement accounts.John Sabelhaus, Michael Bogdan, and Daniel Schrass,
“Equity and Bond Ownership in America, 2008,” Investment Company Institute and
360
Chapter 12 Investing
The Amsterdam Stock Exchange was established in 1602 by the Dutch East India Company, the first company in the
world to issue stock and trade publicly. The company paid 18 percent annually for nearly two hundred years, based
on its near monopoly of the Indonesian spice trade. Competition and corruption ended the exchange, which went
bankrupt in 1798.
© Amsterdam Municipal Department for the Preservation and Restoration of Historic Buildings and Sites; used by
permission.
Bonds1 are debt. The bond issuer borrows by selling a bond, promising the buyer
regular interest payments and then repayment of the principal at maturity. If a
company wants to borrow, it could just go to one lender and borrow. But if the
company wants to borrow a lot, it may be difficult to find any one investor with the
capital and the inclination to make large a loan, taking a large risk on only one
borrower. In this case the company may need to find a lot of lenders who will each
1. Publicly issued and traded lend a little money, and this is done through selling bonds.
long-term debt used by
corporations and governments.
A bond is a formal contract to repay borrowed money with interest (often referred
to as the coupon) at fixed intervals. Corporations and governments (e.g., federal,
state, municipal, and foreign) borrow by issuing bonds. The interest rate on the
bond may be a fixed interest rate2 or a floating interest rate3 that changes as
underlying interest rates—rates on debt of comparable companies—change.
(Underlying interest rates include the prime rate that banks charge their most
trustworthy borrowers and the target rates set by the Federal Reserve Bank.)
There are many features of bonds other than the principal and interest, such as the
issue price4 (the price you pay to buy the bond when it is first issued) and the
maturity date5 (when the issuer of the bond has to repay you). Bonds may also be
“callable”: redeemable6 before maturity7 (paid off early). Bonds may also be issued
with various covenants8 or conditions that the borrower must meet to protect the
bondholders, the lenders. For example, the borrower, the bond issuer, may be
required to keep a certain level of cash on hand, relative to its short-term debts, or
2. A bond interest rate that does may not be allowed to issue more debt until this bond is paid off.
not change over time, from
issuance to maturity.
Because of the diversity and flexibility of bond features, the bond markets are not
3. A bond interest rate that
changes over time, usually as transparent as the stock markets; that is, the relationship between the bond and
related to a benchmark rate its price is harder to determine. The U.S. bond market is now more than twice the
such as the U.S. discount rate size (in dollars of capitalization) of all the U.S. stock exchanges combined, with debt
or prime rate.
of more than $27 trillion by the end of 2007.Financial Industry Regulatory Authority
4. The original market price of a (FINRA), http://apps.finra.org/ (accessed May 20, 2009).
bond at issuance.
5. Date at which a bond matures, U.S. Treasury bonds are auctioned regularly to banks and large institutional
or the end of the bond’s term,
when the bond must be
investors by the Treasury Department, but individuals can buy U.S. Treasury bonds
redeemed. directly from the U.S. government (http://www.treasurydirect.gov). To trade any
other kind of bond, you have to go through a broker. The brokerage firm acts as a
6. A bond that is eligible for
redemption.
principal or dealer, buying from or selling to investors, or as an agent for another
buyer or seller.
7. The date on which payment of
a financial obligation is due,
such as bond redemption date. Stocks and Stock Markets
8. A condition placed on bond
issuers (borrowers) to protect Stocks9 or equity securities are shares of ownership. When you buy a share of stock,
bondholders (lenders). you buy a share of the corporation. The size of your share of the corporation is
9. Shares issued to account for proportional to the size of your stock holding. Since corporations exist to create
ownership, as defined by profit for the owners, when you buy a share of the corporation, you buy a share of
owners’ contributions to a its future profits. You are literally sharing in the fortunes of the company.
corporation.
company may pay no dividend at all, however, in which case the value of your
shares should rise as the company’s profits rise. But even if the company is
profitable, the value of its shares may not rise, for a variety of reasons having to do
more with the markets or the larger economy than with the company itself.
Likewise, when you invest in stocks, you share the company’s losses, which may
decrease the value of your shares.
Corporations issue shares to raise capital. When shares are issued and traded in a
public market such as a stock exchange11, the corporation is “publicly traded.”
There are many stock exchanges in the United States and around the world. The
two best known in the United States are the New York Stock Exchange (now NYSE
Euronext), founded in 1792, and the NASDAQ, a computerized trading system
managed by the National Association of Securities Dealers (the “AQ” stands for
“Automated Quotations”).
Only members of an exchange may trade on the exchange, so to buy or sell stocks
you must go through a broker who is a member of the exchange. Brokers also
manage your account and offer varying levels of advice and access to research. Most
brokers have Web-based trading systems. Some discount brokers offer minimal
advice and research along with minimal trading commissions and fees.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), one of three exchanges in China, is not open to foreign investors. It is the sixth
largest stock exchange in the world. The other exchanges in China are the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) and the
Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKE). The Hang Seng is an index of Asian stocks on the HKE that is popular with
investors interested in investing in Asian companies.
The answer was futures and forward contracts. Futures13 and forward contracts14
or forwards are a form of derivatives15, the term for any financial instrument
whose value is derived from the value of another security. For example, suppose it
is now July 2010. If you know that you will want to have wheat in May of 2011, you
could wait until May 2011 and buy the wheat at the market price, which is unknown
in July 2010. Or you could buy it now, paying today’s price, and store the wheat until
May 2011. Doing so would remove your future price uncertainty, but you would
incur the cost of storing the wheat.
Alternatively, you could buy a futures contract for May 2011 wheat in July 2010. You
would be buying May 2011 wheat at a price that is now known to you (as stated in
the futures contract), but you will not take delivery of the wheat until May 2011.
The value of the futures contract to you is that you are removing the future price
uncertainty without incurring any storage costs. In July 2010 the value of a contract
to buy May 2011 wheat depends on what the price of wheat actually turns out to be
in May 2011.
Forward contracts are traded privately, as a direct deal made between the seller and
13. A publicly traded contract to the buyer, while futures contracts are traded publicly on an exchange such as the
buy or sell an asset at a Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) or the New York Mercantile Exchange
specified time and price in the
(NYMEX).
future.
Derivatives such as forwards, futures, and options are used to hedge or protect
against an existing risk or to speculate on a future price. For a number of reasons,
commodities and derivatives are more risky than investing in stocks and bonds and
are not the best choice for most individual investors.
Mutual funds have become popular because they can provide diverse investments
with a minimum of transaction costs. In theory, they also provide good returns
through the performance of professional portfolio managers.
Much of the modern portfolio theory that spawned these innovations (i.e., the idea
of using the predictability of returns to manage portfolios of investments) is based
on an infinite time horizon, looking at performance over very long periods of time.
This has been very valuable for institutional investors (e.g., pension funds,
insurance companies, endowments, foundations, and trusts) as it gives them the
chance to magnify returns over their infinite horizons.
© 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Bonds are
• Stocks are
• Commodities are
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Allison is wondering how to get into some serious investing. She is thinking that
since so many people seem to be interested in “Wall Street,” there must be money
in it. There is no lack of information or advice about investing, but Allison isn’t sure
how to get started.
Allison may not realize that there are as many different investment strategies as
there are investors. The planning process is similar to planning a budget plan or
savings plan. You figure out where you are, where you want to be, and how to get
there. One way to get started is to draw up an individual investment policy
statement.
21. A structured framework for Investment policy statements21, outlines of the investor’s goals and constraints,
investment planning based on are popular with institutional investors such as pension plans, insurance
the investor’s return
objectives, risk tolerance, and companies, or nonprofit endowments. Institutional investment decisions typically
constraints. are made by professional managers operating on instructions from a higher
371
Chapter 12 Investing
This idea of a policy statement has been adapted for individual use, providing a
helpful, structured framework for investment planning—and thinking. The
advantages of drawing up an investment policy to use as a planning framework
include the following:
• The process of creating the policy requires thinking through your goals
and expectations and adjusting those to what is possible.
• The policy statement gives you an active role in your investment
planning, even if the more specific details and implementation are left
to a professional investment advisor.
• Your policy statement is portable, so even if you change advisors, your
plan can go with you.
• Your policy statement is flexible; it can and should be updated at least
once a year.
A policy statement is written in two parts. The first part lists your return objectives
and risk preferences as an investor. The second part lists your constraints on
investment. It sometimes is difficult to reconcile the two parts. That is, you may
need to adjust your statement to improve your chances of achieving your return
objectives within your risk preferences without violating your constraints.
Defining return objectives is the process of quantifying the required annual return
(e.g., 5 percent, 10 percent) necessary to meet your investment goals. If your
investment goals are vague (e.g., to “increase wealth”), then any positive return will
do. Usually, however, you have some specific goals—for example, to finance a
child’s or grandchild’s education, to have a certain amount of wealth at retirement,
to buy a sailboat on your fiftieth birthday, and so on.
Once you have defined goals, you must determine when they will happen and how
much they will cost, or how much you will have to have invested to make your
dreams come true. As explained in Chapter 4 "Evaluating Choices: Time, Risk, and
Value", the rate of return that your investments must achieve to reach your goals
depends on how much you have to invest to start with, how long you have to invest
it, and how much you need to fulfill your goals.
If your return objective is more than can be achieved given your investment and
expected market conditions, then you know to scale down your goals, or perhaps
find a different way to fund them. For example, if Allison wanted to stop working in
ten years and start her own business, she probably would not be able to achieve this
goal solely by investing her $50,000 inheritance, even in a bull (up) market earning
higher rates of return.
Individuals have different risk tolerances. Your risk tolerance22 is your ability and
willingness to assume risk. Your ability to assume risk is based on your asset base,
your time horizon, and your liquidity needs. In other words, your ability to take
investment risks is limited by how much you have to invest, how long you have to
22. An investor’s capacity for risk invest it, and your need for your portfolio to provide cash—for use rather than
exposure, based on the ability
reinvestment—in the meantime.
and willingness to assume risk.
Your willingness to take risk is shaped by your “personality,” your experiences, and
your knowledge and education. Attitudes are shaped by life experiences, and
attitudes toward risk are no different. Figure 12.7 "Risk Tolerance" shows how your
level of risk tolerance develops.
Investment advisors may try to gauge your attitude toward risk by having you
answer a series of questions on a formal questionnaire or by just talking with you
about your investment approach. For example, an investor who says, “It’s more
important to me to preserve what I have than to make big gains in the markets,” is
relatively risk averse23. The investor who says, “I just want to make a quick profit,”
is probably more of a risk seeker.
Once you have determined your return objective and risk tolerance (i.e., what it will
take to reach your goals and what you are willing and able to risk to get there) you
may have to reconcile the two. You may find that your goals are not realistic unless
you are willing to take on more risk. If you are unwilling or unable to take on more
risk, you may have to scale down your goals.
23. An investor’s preference to
minimize exposure to risk.
Defining Constraints
• Liquidity needs
• Time available
• Tax obligations
• Legal requirements
• Unique circumstances
Liquidity needs, or the need to use cash, can slow your progress from investing
because you have to divert cash from your investment portfolio in order to spend it.
In addition you will have ongoing expenses from investing. For example, you will
have to use some liquidity to cover your transaction costs such as brokerage fees
and management fees. You may also wish to use your portfolio as a source of
regular income or to finance asset purchases, such as the down payment on a home
or a new car or new appliances.
While these may be happy transactions for you, for your portfolio they are negative
events, because they take away value from your investment portfolio. Since your
portfolio’s ability to earn return is based on its value, whenever you take away from
that value, you are reducing its ability to earn.
Time is another determinant of your portfolio’s earning power. The more time you
have to let your investments earn, the more earnings you can amass. Or, the more
time you have to reach your goals, the more slowly you can afford to get there,
earning less return each year but taking less risk as you do. Your time horizon will
depend on your age and life stage and on your goals and their specific liquidity
needs.
Tax obligations are another constraint, because paying taxes takes value away from
your investments. Investment value may be taxed in many ways (as income tax,
capital gains tax, property tax, estate tax, or gift tax) depending on how it is
invested, how its returns are earned, and how ownership is transferred if it is
bought or sold.
Investors typically want to avoid, defer, or minimize paying taxes, and some
investment strategies will do that better than others. In any case, your individual
tax liabilities may become a constraint in determining how the portfolio earns to
best avoid, defer, or minimize taxes.
Some investors don’t want to finance companies that make objectionable products
or by-products or have labor or trade practices reflecting objectionable political
views. Divestment24 is the term for taking money out of investments. Grassroots
political movements often include divestiture campaigns, such as student demands
that their universities stop investing in companies that do business with
nondemocratic or oppressive governments.
Having mapped out your goals and determined the risks you are willing to take, and
having recognized the limitations you must work with, you and/or investment
advisors can now choose the best investments. Different advisors may have
different suggestions based on your investment policy statement. The process of
choosing involves knowing what returns and risks investments have produced in
the past, what returns and risks they are likely to have in the future, and how the
returns and risks are related—or not—to each other.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ liquidity needs,
◦ time horizon,
◦ tax circumstances and obligations,
◦ legal restrictions,
◦ unique preferences or circumstances.
• Social investment and divestment are unique preferences based on
beliefs and values about desirable or objectionable industries, products,
or companies.
• Your investment policy statement guides the selection of investments
and development of your investment portfolio.
EXERCISES
◦ http://www.socialinvest.org
◦ http://www.greeninvestment.com
◦ http://www.newsreview.com/sacramento/
content?oid=323855
◦ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118239582814643063.html
◦ http://www.nolo.com/article.cfm/ObjectID/8E5E996A-
B251-41C1-B1F867B8EB112ED3/catID/498F840B-0B7B-4A9A-
AE102EC156E16660/104/284/164/ART
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
You want to choose investments that will combine to achieve the return objectives
and level of risk that’s right for you, but how do you know what the right
combination will be? You can’t predict the future, but you can make an educated
guess based on an investment’s past history. To do this, you need to know how to
read or use the information available. Perhaps the most critical information to have
about an investment is its potential return and susceptibility to types of risk.
Return
Returns are always calculated as annual rates of return, or the percentage of return
created for each unit (dollar) of original value. If an investment earns 5 percent, for
example, that means that for every $100 invested, you would earn $5 per year
(because $5 = 5% of $100).
Returns are created in two ways: the investment creates income or the investment
gains (or loses) value. To calculate the annual rate of return for an investment, you
need to know the income created, the gain (loss) in value, and the original value at
the beginning of the year. The percentage return can be calculated as in Figure 12.8
"Calculating Percentage Return".
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Chapter 12 Investing
Note that if the ending value is greater than the original value, then Ending value −
Original value > 0 (is greater than zero), and you have a gain that adds to your
return. If the ending value is less, then Ending value − Original value < 0 (is less than
zero), and you have a loss that detracts from your return. If there is no gain or loss,
if Ending value − Original value = 0 (is the same), then your return is simply the
income that the investment created.
For example, if you buy a share of stock for $100, and it pays no dividend, and a year
later the market price is $105, then your return = [0 + (105 − 100)] ÷ 100 = 5 ÷ 100 =
5%. If the same stock paid a dividend of $2, then your return = [2 + (105 − 100)] ÷ 100
= 7 ÷ 100 = 7%.
If the information you have shows more than one year’s results, you can calculate
the annual return using what you learned in Chapter 4 "Evaluating Choices: Time,
Risk, and Value" about the relationships of time and value. For example, if an
investment was worth $10,000 five years ago and is worth $14,026 today, then
$10,000 × (1+ r)5 = $14,026. Solving for r—the annual rate of return, assuming you
have not taken the returns out in the meantime—and using a calculator, a computer
application, or doing the math, you get 7 percent. So the $10,000 investment must
have earned at a rate of 7 percent per year to be worth $14,026 five years later,
other factors being equal.
For investments with a long history, a strong indicator of future performance may
be past performance. Economic cycles fluctuate, and industry and firm conditions
vary, but over the long run, an investment that has survived has weathered all
those storms. So you could look at the average of the returns for each year. There
are several ways to do the math, but if you look at the average return for different
investments of the same asset class or type (e.g., stocks of large companies) you
could compare what they have returned, on average, over time. Figure 12.9 "S&P
500 Average Annual Return" shows average returns on investments in the S&P 500,
an index of large U.S. companies since 1990.
26. The return expected for an
investment based on its
average historical
performance. Statistically, it is
the mean or average of the
investment’s past
performance.
Figure 12.9 S&P 500 Average Annual ReturnBased on data from Standard & Poor’s, Inc.,
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/MONTHLY.xls (accessed November 24, 2009).
If the time period you are looking at is long enough, you can reasonably assume
that an investment’s average return over time is the return you can expect in the
next year. For example, if a company’s stock has returned, on average, 9 percent
per year over the last twenty years, then if next year is an average year, that
investment should return 9 percent again. Over the eighteen-year span from 1990
to 2008, for example, the average return for the S&P 500 was 9.16 percent. Unless
you have some reason to believe that next year will not be an average year, the
average return can be your expected return. The longer the time period you
consider, the less volatility there will be in the returns, and the more accurate your
prediction of expected returns will be.
Returns are the value created by an investment, through either income or gains.
Returns are also your compensation for investing, for taking on some or all of the
risk of the investment, whether it is a corporation, government, parcel of real
estate, or work of art. Even if there is no risk, you must be paid for the use of
liquidity that you give up to the investment (by investing).
Returns are the benefits from investing, but they must be larger than its costs.
There are at least two costs to investing: the opportunity cost of giving up cash and
giving up all your other uses of that cash until you get it back in the future and the
cost of the risk you take—the risk that you won’t get it all back.
Risk
Investment risk is the idea that an investment will not perform as expected, that its
actual return will deviate from the expected return. Risk is measured by the
amount of volatility, that is, the difference between actual returns and average
(expected) returns. This difference is referred to as the standard deviation27.
Returns with a large standard deviation (showing the greatest variance from the
average) have higher volatility and are the riskier investments.
As Figure 12.9 "S&P 500 Average Annual Return" shows, an investment may do
better or worse than its average. Thus, standard deviation can be used to define the
expected range of investment returns. For the S&P 500, for example, the standard
deviation from 1990 to 2008 was 19.54 percent. So, in any given year, the S&P 500 is
expected to return 9.16 percent but its return could be as high as 67.78 percent or
as low as −49.46 percent, based on its performance during that specific period.
What risks are there? What would cause an investment to unexpectedly over- or
underperform? Starting from the top (the big picture) and working down, there are
• economic risks,
• industry risks,
• company risks,
• asset class risks,
• market risks.
Economic risks are risks that something will upset the economy as a whole. The
economic cycle may swing from expansion to recession, for example; inflation or
deflation may increase, unemployment may increase, or interest rates may
fluctuate. These macroeconomic factors affect everyone doing business in the
economy. Most businesses are cyclical, growing when the economy grows and
contracting when the economy contracts.
Consumers tend to spend more disposable income when they are more confident
about economic growth and the stability of their jobs and incomes. They tend to be
more willing and able to finance purchases with debt or with credit, expanding
their ability to purchase durable goods. So, demand for most goods and services
increases as an economy expands, and businesses expand too. An exception is
27. In finance, the statistical businesses that are countercyclical. Their growth accelerates when the economy is
measure that calculates the in a downturn and slows when the economy expands. For example, low-priced fast
frequency and amount by
which actual returns differ
food chains typically have increased sales in an economic downturn because people
from the average or expected substitute fast food for more expensive restaurant meals as they worry more about
returns. losing their jobs and incomes.
The asset class28 that an investment belongs to can also bear on its performance
and risk. Investments (assets) are categorized in terms of the markets they trade in.
Broadly defined, asset classes include
Within those broad categories, there are finer distinctions. For example, corporate
stock is classified as large cap, mid cap, or small cap, depending on the size of the
corporation as measured by its market capitalization (the aggregate value of its
stock). Bonds are distinguished as corporate or government and as short-term,
intermediate-term, or long-term, depending on the maturity date.
28. A kind of investment
distinguished by its uses and
market (e.g., stock, bonds, fine Risks can affect entire asset classes. Changes in the inflation rate can make
art, real estate, currency). corporate bonds more or less valuable, for example, or more or less able to create
As you can see, the link between risk and return is reciprocal. The question for
investors and their advisors is: How can you get higher returns with less risk?
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ economic risk,
◦ industry risk,
◦ company- or firm-specific risk,
◦ asset class risk, or
◦ market risk.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Every investor wants to maximize return, the earnings or gains from giving up
surplus cash. And every investor wants to minimize risk, because it is costly. To
invest is to assume risk, and you assume risk expecting to be compensated through
return. The more risk assumed, the more the promised return. So, to increase
return you must increase risk. To lessen risk, you must expect less return, but
another way to lessen risk is to diversify—to spread out your investments among a
number of different asset classes. Investing in different asset classes reduces your
exposure to economic, asset class, and market risks.
Steps to Diversification
In traditional portfolio theory, there are three levels or steps to diversifying: capital
allocation, asset allocation, and security selection.
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Chapter 12 Investing
The capital allocation decision is the first diversification decision. It determines the
portfolio’s overall exposure to risk, or the proportion of the portfolio that is
invested in risky assets. That, in turn, will determine the portfolio’s level of return.
asset classes you choose are truly diverse, then the portfolio’s risk can be lower
than the sum of the assets’ risks.
Investment Strategies
Capital allocation decides the amount of overall risk in the portfolio; asset
allocation tries to maximize the return you can get for that amount of risk. Security
selection further diversifies within each asset class. Figure 12.12 "Levels of
Diversification" demonstrates the three levels of diversification.
Just as life cycle investing is a strategy for asset allocation, investing in index funds
is a strategy for security selection. Indexes are a way of measuring the performance
of an entire asset class by measuring returns for a portfolio containing all the
investments in that asset class. Essentially, the index becomes a benchmark33 for
the asset class, a standard against which any specific investment in that asset class
can be measured. An index fund is an investment that holds the same securities as
the index, so it provides a way for you to invest in an entire asset class without
having to select particular securities. For example, if you invest in the S&P 500
Index fund, you are investing in the five hundred largest corporations in the United
States—the asset class of large corporations.
There are indexes and index funds for most asset classes. By investing in an index,
you are achieving the most diversification possible for that asset class without
having to make individual investments, that is, without having to make any security
selection decisions. This strategy of bypassing the security selection decision is
called passive management34. It also has the advantage of saving transaction costs
(broker’s fees) because you can invest in the entire index through only one
transaction rather than the many transactions that picking investments would
require.
35. An investment strategy that It is rare, however, for active investors or investment managers to achieve superior
includes security selection
within an asset class in order results over time. More commonly, an investment manager is unable to achieve
to outperform the asset class consistently better returns within an asset class than the returns of the passively
benchmark. managed index.Much research, some of it quite academic, has been done on this
36. The practice of basing subject. For a succinct (and instructive) summary of the discussion, see Burton G.
investment strategy on Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 10th ed. (New York: W. W. Norton &
predictions of future market Company, Inc., 2007).
changes or on asset return
forecasts.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
Introduction
Much of what is known about finance and investments has come from the study of
economics. Classic economics assumes that people are rational when they make
economic or financial decisions. “Rational” means that people respond to incentives
because their goal is always to maximize benefit and minimize costs. Not everyone
shares the same idea of benefit and cost, but in a market with millions of
participants, there tends to be some general consensus.
People are not always rational, however, and markets are not always efficient.
Behavioral finance2 is the study of why individuals do not always make the
decisions they are expected to make and why markets do not reliably behave as
they are expected to behave. As market participants, individuals are affected by
others’ behavior, which collectively affects market behavior, which in turn affects
all the participants in the market.
As an individual, you participate in the capital markets and are vulnerable to the
1. The idea that the market works individual and market behaviors that influence the outcomes of your decisions. The
best when prices reflect all
more you understand and anticipate those behaviors, the better your financial
available information,
implying that the market price decision making may be.
represents an unbiased
estimate with an equal chance
that stocks are over- or
undervalued.
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Chapter 13 Behavioral Finance and Market Behavior
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Identify and describe the biases that can affect investor decision
making.
2. Explain how framing errors can influence investor decision making.
3. Identify the factors that can influence investor profiles.
Biases
• Availability
• Representativeness
• Overconfidence
• Anchoring
• Ambiguity aversionHersh Shefrin, Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding
Financial Behavior and the Psychology of Investing (Oxford: Oxford
3. A tendency or preference or University Press, 2002).
belief that interferes with
objectivity.
Availability bias4 occurs because investors rely on information to make informed
4. In finance, an investor’s
decisions, but not all information is readily available. Investors tend to give more
tendency to base the
probability of an event on the weight to more available information and to discount information that is brought to
availability of information. their attention less often. The stocks of corporations that get good press, for
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Chapter 13 Behavioral Finance and Market Behavior
example, claim to do better than those of less publicized companies when in reality
these “high-profile” companies may actually have worse earnings and return
potential.
Overconfidence also comes from the tendency to attribute good results to good
investor decisions and bad results to bad luck or bad markets.
Anchoring7 happens when you cannot integrate new information into your
thinking because you are too “anchored” to your existing views. You do not give
new information its due, especially if it contradicts your previous views. By
devaluing new information, you tend to underreact to changes or news and become
less likely to act, even when it is in your interest.
5. The practice of stereotyping
asset performance, or of
assuming commonality of Ambiguity aversion8 is the tendency to prefer the familiar to the unfamiliar or the
disparate assets based on
superficial, stereotypical traits.
known to the unknown. Avoiding ambiguity can lead to discounting opportunities
with greater uncertainty in favor of “sure things.” In that case, your bias against
6. A bias in which you have too uncertainty may create an opportunity cost for your portfolio. Availability bias and
much faith in the precision of
your estimates, causing you to
ambiguity aversion can also result in a failure to diversify, as investors tend to
underestimate the range of “stick with what they know.” For example, in a study of defined contribution
possibilities that actually exist. retirement accounts or 401(k)s, more than 35 percent of employees had more than
30 percent of their account invested in the employing company’s stock, and 23
7. A bias in which the investor
relies too heavily on limited percent had more than 50 percent of their retirement account invested in their
known factors or points of employer’s stockS. Holden and J. VanDerhei, “401(k) Plan Asset Allocation, Account
reference. Balances, and Loan Activity in 2002,” EBRI Issue Brief 261 (2003).—hardly a well-
8. A preference for known risks diversified asset allocation.
over unknown risks.
Framing
Framing9 refers to the way you see alternatives and define the context in which
you are making a decision.A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, “The Framing Decisions
and the Psychology of Choice,” Science 30, no. 211 (1981): 453–58. Your framing
determines how you imagine the problem, its possible solutions, and its connection
with other situations. A concept related to framing is mental accounting10: the way
individuals encode, describe, and assess economic outcomes when they make
financial decisions.R. Thaler, "Mental Accounting Matters," Journal of Behavioral
Decision Making 12, no. 3 (1999): 183–206. In financial behavior, framing can lead to
shortsighted views, narrow-minded assumptions, and restricted choices.
Framing also influences how you manage making more than one decision
simultaneously. If presented with multiple but separate choices, most people tend
to decide on each separately, mentally segregating each decision.Hersh Shefrin,
Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Financial Behavior and the Psychology of Investing
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002). By framing choices as separate and
unrelated, however, you may miss making the best decisions, which may involve
comparing or combining choices. Lack of diversification or overdiversification in a
portfolio may also result.
Investor Profiles
12. A combination of
characteristics based on
personality traits, life stage,
and sources of wealth.
These “definitions” are fairly loose yet typical enough to think about. In each of
these stages, your goals and your risk tolerance—both your ability and willingness
to assume risk—change. Generally, the further you are from retirement and the loss
of your wage income, the more risk you will take with your investments, having
another source of income (your paycheck). As you get closer to retirement, you
become more concerned with preserving your investment’s value so that it can
generate income when it becomes your sole source of income in retirement, thus
causing you to become less risk tolerant. After retirement, your risk tolerance
decreases even more, until the very end of your life when you are concerned with
dispersing rather than preserving your wealth.
Risk tolerance and investment approaches are affected by more than age and
investment stage, however. Studies have shown that the source and amount of
wealth can be a factor in attitudes toward investment.John L. Maginn, Donald L.
Tuttle, Jerald E. Pinto, and Dennis W. McLeavey, eds., Managing Investment Portfolios:
A Dynamic Process, 3rd ed. (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2007).
Those who have inherited wealth or come to it “passively,” tend to be much more
risk averse than those who have “actively” created their own wealth.
Entrepreneurs, for example, who have created wealth, tend to be much more
willing to assume investment risk, perhaps because they have more confidence in
their ability to create more wealth should their investments lose value. Those who
have inherited wealth tend to be much more risk averse, as they see their wealth as
a windfall that, once lost, they cannot replace.
Active wealth owners also tend to be more active investors, more involved in
investment decisions and more knowledgeable about their investment portfolios.
They have more confidence in their ability to manage and to make good decisions
than do passive wealth owners, who haven’t had the experience to build confidence.
Not surprisingly, those with more wealth to invest tend to be more willing to
assume risk. The same loss of value is a smaller proportional loss for them than for
an investor with a smaller asset base.
• confident or anxious,
• deliberate or impetuous,
• organized or sloppy,
• rebellious or conventional,
What makes you make the decisions that you make? The more aware you are of the
influences on your decisions, the more you can factor them in—or out—of the
investment process.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ Availability
◦ Representativeness
◦ Overconfidence
◦ Anchoring
◦ Ambiguity aversion
• Framing refers to the way you see alternatives and define the
context in which you are making a decision. Examples of framing
errors include the following:
◦ Loss aversion
◦ Choice segregation
• Framing is a kind of mental accounting—the way individuals classify,
characterize, and evaluate economic outcomes when they make
financial decisions.
◦ life stage,
◦ personality,
◦ source of wealth.
EXERCISES
Figure 13.3
© 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
Figure 13.4
© 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
Figure 13.5
© 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Your economic behaviors affect economic markets. Market results reflect the
collective yet independent decisions of millions of individuals. There have been
years, even decades, when some markets have not produced expected or “rational”
prices because of the collective behavior of their participants. In inefficient
markets, prices may go way above or below actual value.
The efficient market theory13 relies on the idea that investors behave rationally
and that even when they don’t, their numbers are so great and their behavioral
biases are so diverse that their irrational behaviors will have little overall effect on
the market. In effect, investors’ anomalous behaviors will cancel each other out.
Thus, diversification (of participants) lowers risk (to the market).
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Chapter 13 Behavioral Finance and Market Behavior
Limits of Arbitrage
Market inefficiencies can persist when they go undiscovered or when they seem
rational. Economic historians point out that while every asset “bubble” is in some
ways unique, there are common economic factors at work.Charles P. Kindleberger
and Robert Aliber, Manias, Panics, and Crashes, 5th ed. (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley &
Sons, Inc., 2005). Bubbles are accompanied by lower interest rates, increased use of
A key study of the U.S. stock market points out that there are cultural as well as
economic factors that can encourage or validate market inefficiency.Robert J.
Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 2nd ed. (New York: Random House, Inc., 2005).
Examples include
These factors all lead to increased participation in the market and a tendency to
“rationalize irrationality,” that is, to think that real economic or cultural changes,
rather than mispricings, are changing the markets.
Sometimes mispricings occur when real economic and cultural changes are
happening, however, so that what used to be seen a mispricing is actually seen as
justifiable, fundamental value because the market itself has changed profoundly. An
example is the dotcom bubble of 1990–2000, when stock prices of Internet start-up
companies rose far higher than their value or earning capacity. Yet investors
irrationally kept investing until the first wave of start-ups failed, bursting the
market bubble.
Economic and cultural factors can prolong market inefficiency by reinforcing the
behaviors that created it, in a kind of feedback loop. For example, financial news
coverage in the media increased during the 1990s with the global saturation of
cable and satellite television and radio, as well as the growth of the Internet.Robert
J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 2nd ed. (New York: Random House, Inc., 2005). More
information availability can lead to more availability bias. Stereotyping can develop
as a result of repeated “news,” resulting in representation bias, which encourages
overconfidence or too little questioning or analysis of the situation. Misinterpreting
market inefficiency as real changes can cause framing problems and other biases as
well.
anchoring, the expectation that asset values will continue to rise. Inefficiency
becomes the norm. Those who do not invest in this market thus incur an
opportunity cost. Participating in perpetuating market inefficiency, rather than
correcting it, becomes the rational choice.
Market efficiency requires that investors act independently so that the market
reflects the consensus opinion of their independent judgments. Instead, the market
may be reflecting the opinions of a few to whom others defer. Although the volume
of market participation would seem to show lots of participation, few are actually
participating. Most are simply following. The market then reflects the consensus of
the few rather than the many; hence, the probability of mispricing rises.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ transaction costs,
◦ the risk of misinterpreting market mispricing.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Economic forces and financial behavior can converge to create extreme markets or
financial crises, such as booms, bubbles, panics, crashes, or meltdowns. These
atypical events actually happen fairly frequently. Between 1618 and 1998, there
were thirty-eight financial crises globally, or one every ten years.Charles P.
Kindleberger and Robert Aliber, Manias, Panics, and Crashes, 5th ed. (Hoboken, NJ:
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2005). As an investor, you can expect to weather as many as
six crises in your lifetime.
Patterns of events that seem to precipitate and follow the crises are shown in Figure
13.7 "Pattern of a Financial Crisis". First a period of economic expansion is sparked
by a new technology, the discovery of a new resource, or a change in political
balances. This leads to increased production, markets, wealth, consumption, and
investment, as well as increased credit and lower interest rates. People are looking
for ways to invest their newfound wealth. This leads to an asset bubble, a rapid
increase in the price of some asset: bonds, stocks, real estate, or commodities such
as cotton, gold, oil, or tulip bulbs that seems to be positioned to prosper from this
particular expansion.
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Chapter 13 Behavioral Finance and Market Behavior
The bubble continues, reinforced by the behavioral and market consequences that
it sparks until some event pricks the bubble. Then asset values quickly deflate, and
credit defaults rise, damaging the banking system. Having lost wealth and access to
credit, people rein in their demand for consumption and investment, further
slowing the economy.
Figure 13.8 "Major Asset Bubbles Since 1636" shows some of the major asset bubbles
since 1636 and the events that preceded them.Charles P. Kindleberger and Robert
Aliber, Manias, Panics, and Crashes, 5th ed. (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,
2005).
In many cases, the event that started the asset speculation was not a
macroeconomic event but nevertheless had consequences to the economy: the end
of a war, a change of government, a change in policy, or a new technology. Often
the asset that was the object of speculation was a resource for or an application of a
new technology or an expansion into new territory that may have been critical to a
new emphasis in the economy. In other words, the assets that became the objects of
bubbles tended to be the drivers of a “new economy” at the time and thus were
rationalized as investments rather than as speculation.
In all the examples listed in Figure 13.8 "Major Asset Bubbles Since 1636", as asset
values rose—even if only on the strength of investor beliefs—speculators, financed
by an expansion of credit, augmented the market and drove up asset prices even
further. Many irrational financial behaviors—overconfidence, anchoring,
availability bias, representativeness—were in play, until finally the market was
shocked into reversal by a specific event or simply sank under its own weight.
Economists may argue that this is what you should expect, that markets expand and
contract cyclically as a matter of course. In this view, a crash is nothing more than
the correction for a bubble—market efficiency at work.
Much has been and will be written about a classic financial crisis, the Internet stock
boom of the 1990s.For a wonderfully thorough and insightful start, see Robert J.
Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 2nd ed. (New York: Random House, Inc., 2005). The
asset bubble was in the stocks of emerging companies poised to take advantage of
the “new economy” and its expanding markets of the new technology of the
Internet.
The asset bubble grew from preceding economic events. The previous decade had
seen a recovery from a major inflation and a recession in the United States followed
by an economic expansion. Deregulation and new technologies had opened up the
telecommunications industry. In 1989 the Soviet Union dissolved, opening markets
and market economies in Eastern Europe as well as the former Soviet Union (FSU).
The personal computer had taken hold and was gaining in household saturation.
This mix of relative prosperity, low inflation, new global markets, and new
technology looked very promising. Classically, the economy expanded, and a new
asset bubble was born.
Most Internet companies that were publicly traded were listed on the NASDAQ
exchange. Figure 13.9 "NASDAQ Composite Index, 1989–2008" shows the NASDAQ
composite index from 1991 to 2002.
Figure 13.9 NASDAQ Composite Index, 1989–2008Graph created by the author, based on data retrieved from
Yahoo! Finance, http://finance.yahoo.com (accessed October 21, 2009).
Between 1990 and 2000 the NASDAQ Composite Index increased ten-fold. At the
height of the bubble, between 1998 and 2000, the value of the index increased 2.5
times, resulting in an average annualized return of over 58 percent.
Alan Greenspan, then Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank, spoke on Capital Hill at the
end of January 1999. In response to the question about how much of the stock boom
was “based on sound fundamentals and how much is based on hype.” Greenspan
replied,
“First of all, you wouldn’t get ‘hype’ working if there weren’t something
fundamentally, potentially sound under it.
“The size of the potential market is so huge that you have these pie-in-the-sky type
of potentials for a lot of different [firms]. Undoubtedly, some of these small
companies whose stock prices are going through the roof will succeed. And they
may very well justify even higher prices. The vast majority are almost sure to fail.
That’s the way markets tend to work in this regard.…
“But there is at root here something far more fundamental—the stock market
seeking out profitable ventures and directing capital to hopeful projects before
profits materialize. That’s good for our system. And, in fact, with all its hype and
craziness, is something that, at the end of the day, is probably more plus than
minus.”John Cassidy, Dot.con (New York: HarperCollins, 2002), 202.
Greenspan implies that the bubble “with all its hype and craziness” is nothing more
than business as usual in the capital markets. He sees the irrational as somewhat
rational and not merely the “irrational exuberance” that he saw little more than
two years earlier.Robert J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 2nd ed. (New York: Random
House, Inc., 2005), 1.
Going back a bit further, the Crash of 1929 was perhaps the most profound end to
an asset bubble, at least in the American psyche, as it seemed to precipitate a
lengthy depression, the Great Depression. The reasons for the prolonged recession
that followed the crash are complex, but the factors leading up to it illustrate a
classic asset bubble.
In the decade after World War I, the U.S. economy boomed. With the war over,
inflation eased and markets opened. Our manufacturing competitors in Europe had
suffered losses of labor, capital, and infrastructure that allowed the United States to
establish a global dominance. Technologies such as radio were changing the speed
of life, while the mass production of everything from cars to appliances was
changing the quality of life. Electrification and roads developed a national
infrastructure. To finance the consumption of all this mass production, the idea of
“store credit” was beginning to expand into the system of consumer credit that we
use today. As interest rates stayed low, levels of household and corporate debt rose.
New technologies were developed by new corporations that needed mass, public
financing. As more and more shares were issued, they were pitched more fervently
to encourage more investment by more investors. Investing became the national
pastime, share prices rose, and investors were reassured that technology had
spawned a new economy to create new wealth. As in the 1990s, the mix of relative
prosperity, low inflation, new global markets, and new technology looked very
promising. The positive feedback loop of a classic asset bubble had been created.
After it was all over, Groucho, one of the famous Marx Brothers comedians,
reflected on the rationalized irrationality of the bubble: “I would have lost more,
but that was all the money I had.”Julius Henry Marx, Groucho and Me (New York: Da
Capo Press, Inc., 1995), 197. Originally published in 1959.
Given that you can expect to encounter at least a few crises during your investing
lifetime, as you think about investing—creating and managing wealth—how can you
protect yourself? How can you “keep your head when all about you / Are losing
theirs,”Rudyard Kipling, Complete Verse (New York: Anchor Books, 1988). and is that
really the right thing to do?
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ economic expansion,
◦ asset bubble(s),
◦ market crash(es).
• The behavior that leads to financial crises may exhibit investor biases,
but to the extent that investors are responding to real changes in the
economy, it is not necessarily irrational.
EXERCISE
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
You can apply your knowledge of findings from the field of behavioral finance in a
number of ways. First, you can be alert to and counteract your natural tendencies
toward investor bias and framing. For example, you can avoid availability bias by
gathering news from different sources and by keeping the news in historical
perspective.
A long-term viewpoint can also help you avoid anchoring or assuming that current
performance indicates future performance. At the same time, keep in mind that
current market trends are not the same as the past trends they may resemble. For
example, factors leading to stock market crashes include elements unique to each.
Loss aversion, like any fear, is useful when it keeps you from taking too much risk,
but not when it keeps you from profitable opportunities. Using knowledge to best
assess the scope and probability of loss is a way to see the loss in context. Likewise,
segregating investments by their goals, risks, liquidity, and time horizons may be
useful for, say, encouraging you to save for retirement or some other goal.
Your best protection against your own behavioral impulses, however, is to have a
plan based on an objective analysis of goals, risk tolerance, and constraints, taking
your entire portfolio into account. Review your plan at least once a year as
circumstances and asset values may have changed. Having a plan in place helps you
counteract investor biases.
Following your investment policy or plan, you determine the capital and asset
allocations that can produce your desired return objective and risk tolerance within
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Chapter 13 Behavioral Finance and Market Behavior
Asset bubbles and market crashes are largely a matter of timing. If you could
anticipate a bubble and invest just before it began and divest just before it burst,
you would get maximum return. That sort of precise timing, however, is nearly
impossible to achieve. To time events precisely, you would constantly have to watch
for new information, and even then, the information from different sources may be
contradictory, or there may be information available to others that you do not
have. Taken together, your chances of profitably timing a bubble or crash are fairly
slim.
17. The practice of basing An investment strategy based on the idea that timing is everything is called
investment strategy on technical analysis. Technical analysis18 involves analyzing securities in terms of
predictions of future market
their history, expressed, for example, in the form of charts of market data such as
changes or on asset return
forecasts. price and volume. Technical analysts are sometimes referred to as chartists.
Chartists do not consider the intrinsic value of a security—a concern of
18. A process of estimating fundamental analysis19. Instead, using charts of past price changes and returns,
security value solely on the
basis of past performance as an technical analysts try to predict a security’s future market movement.
indicator of future
performance.
Candlestick charting, with its dozens of symbols, is used as a way to “see” market
19. The process of estimating timing trends. It is believed to have been invented by an eighteenth-century
security value by evaluating
past performance and
Japanese rice trader named Homma Munehisa.Gregory L. Morris, Candlestick
macreconomic and industry Charting Explained: Timeless Techniques for Trading Stocks and Futures (New York:
factors. McGraw-Hill, 2006). Although charting and technical analysis has its proponents,
Technical analysts use charts like this one, showing the NASDAQ’s performance for April and May 2009. Each
symbol annotating the graph, such as the shaded and clear “candlesticks,” represents financial data. Chartists
interpret the patterns they see on these charts as indicators of future price moves and returns as driven by traders’
financial behavior.
Financial Fraud
During the post–World War I expansion and stock bubble of the 1920s, for example,
Charles Ponzi created the first Ponzi scheme20, a variation of the classic pyramid
20. A pyramid scheme practiced by scheme21. The pyramid scheme creates “returns” from new members’ deposits
Charles Ponzi in Boston during
the 1920s. The term is now rather than from real earnings in the market. The originator gets a number of
commonly used to describe a people to invest, each of whom recruits more, and so on. The money from each
pyramid scheme. group of investors, however, rather than being invested, is used to pay “returns” to
21. A fraud in which “returns” are the previous group of investors. The scheme is uncovered when there are not
created by new deposits rather enough “returns” to go around. Thus, the originator and early investors may get
than by real investment rich, while later investors lose all their money.
earnings.
During the prosperity of the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, the American financier
Bernard Madoff notoriously ran a variation of the Ponzi scheme. His fraud, costing
investors around the world billions of dollars, lasted through several stock bubbles
and a real estate bubble before being exposed in 2008.
Fraud can be perpetrated at the corporate level as well. Enron Corporation was an
innovator in developing markets for energy commodities such as oil, natural gas,
and electricity. Its image was of a model corporation that encouraged bright
thinkers to go “outside the box.” Unfortunately, that ethos of innovation took a
wrong turn when several of its corporate officers conspired to hide the company’s
investment risks from financing complicated subsidiaries that existed “off balance
sheet.” In the fall of 2001, with investor confidence shaken by the dotcom bust and
the post-9/11 deepening of the recession, the fraud began to unravel. By the time
the company declared bankruptcy, its stock value was less than one dollar per
share, and its major corporate officers were under indictment (and later convicted)
for fraud.
How can you avoid a fraud? Unfortunately, there are no foolproof rules. You can be
alert to the investment advisor who pushes a particular investment (see Chapter 14
"The Practice of Investment"). You can do your own research and gather as much
independent information on the investment as possible. The best advice, however,
may come in the adage, “If it seems too good to be true, it probably is.” The capital
markets are full of buyers and sellers of capital who are serious traders. The
chances are extremely slim that any one of them has discovered a market
inefficiency undiscoverable by others and exploitable only by him or her. There is
too much at stake.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ availability of information,
◦ access to information,
◦ interpretation of information.
• Technical analysis is a strategy based on market timing and investor
sentiment.
EXERCISES
Introduction
Once you have developed your investment policy statement and have determined
your goals, risk tolerance, and constraints, it is time to choose a strategy and to act.
Whether you entrust a professional advisor or you do it yourself—or both—depends
on your confidence, knowledge, and the time and effort that you want to devote to
your decisions. As is true of any personal finance decision, the ultimate
responsibility for and consequences of your decisions are yours alone. Whatever
you decide, the more you know about the practice of investment, the better an
investor you will be.
There are four broad areas to take into account: (1) how
to find and evaluate the information you need, (2) the Figure 14.1
agents and fees involved in securities trading, (3) the
ethical standards and regulatory requirements of the
securities industry, and (4) the special considerations of
investing internationally.
© 2010 Jupiterimages
Corporation
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Chapter 14 The Practice of Investment
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Explain how leading economic indicators are used to gauge the current
economic cycle and the outlook for the economy.
2. Explain how indexes are used to gauge financial market activity and as
benchmarks for asset classes and industries.
3. Identify and evaluate sources of information used to analyze and
forecast corporate performance.
4. Sample and evaluate media outlets providing investment information
and advice.
Your investment decisions involve asset allocation and security selection. To make
those decisions, you need information that will help you form an idea of the
economy, industry, and company that affect your decisions. The three main kinds
of information that investors use are economic indicators, market indexes, and
company performance.
Economic Indicators
To gauge the economic environment or cycle, the most widely used measures are
the following:
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Chapter 14 The Practice of Investment
The U.S. government tracks GDP, inflation, and unemployment through its
agencies, such as the Federal Reserve Bank, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the
National Bureau of Economic Research. Globally, the World Bank tracks similar
statistics, which are widely reported in the media as recognized benchmarks1 of a
nation’s economic health.
In addition, interest rates are another financial market indicator. Interest rates are
tracked intently because so much capital investment, consumer investment (for
houses, cars, education), and even daily consumption relies on debt financing. The
prime rate, the lowest available retail interest rate, and average mortgage rates are
the most commonly followed rates.
Economists look at many other factors to measure the economy. The index of
leading economic indicators2, published monthly, includes the following:
All these measures indicate how productive the economy is, how successful it is at
creating jobs and incomes, and how much benefit it can create for consumers. A
decline in the leading indicators for three consecutive months is thought to be a
strong sign that the economy is in a downturn or even heading toward a recession.
1. A standard, often an index of
securities, representing an
industry or asset class and used Market Information
as an indicator of growth
potential or as a basis of
comparison for similar of The health of financial markets is gauged by the values of various securities indexes
disparate industries or assets. that show the growth or decline of prices in various markets. The indexes are used
2. A set of ten economic statistics
to gauge the movement, direction, and rate of change as well as nominal value.
that are used to assess the
potential for economic growth.
Figure 14.2 "Examples of Security Indexes" lists some examples of the many stock
indexes and bond indexes and the publicly traded securities they track.
There is an index for anything that is traded: commodities, currencies, interest rate
futures, and so on. Measures of market momentum include statistics such as the
percentage of stocks that advanced (increased in value) or declined (decreased in
value) or the volume of shares bought and sold. If more stocks advanced than
declined, for example, that may suggest optimism for the stock market.
Indexes are used as benchmarks for an asset class or a sector of the economy. The
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index is used to benchmark the performance of large
company (large cap) stocks, for example, while the Dow Jones Transportation Index
is used to compare the performance of the transportation industry to that of other
industries.
When professionals analyze a company for its investment potential, they look first
at financial statements. You can access this data as well, because all publicly traded
corporations must file both annual and quarterly financial reports with the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Those files are then made available on
the SEC’s Web site (http://www.sec.gov/edgar) through Electronic Data Gathering
and Retrieval (EDGAR), the SEC’s data bank. The annual reports (10-Ks) are audited,
and the quarterly reports (10-Qs) are unaudited, but both have to show the
company’s financial statements and report on important developments and plans
or explain unusual financial results.
The 10-K and the 10-Q can give you a good sense of what and how the company has
been doing or planning for the future. Similar corporate information may be found
in the company’s annual report, sent to shareholders and also available on the
company’s Web site.
As you explore the sources of financial news, you will develop a sense of which ones
are the most useful to you. Figure 14.4 "Sample of Financial News Sources" lists a
selection of financial news sites to explore.
As you survey these news sources, be aware of features that might lead you to trust
an online source of information. The following are some questions to help you
evaluate the credibility of a Web site:Dax R. Norman, “Web Sites You Can Trust,”
American Libraries (August 2006): 36. Also see the Librarians’ Internet Index of Web
Sites You Can Trust, http://lii.org/ (accessed June 2, 2009).
10. Do other Web sites link to this one? (Look for links.)
11. Is the site recommended by a generalist? (Ask a librarian.)
12. Is the site recommended by an independent subject area guide? (See
site referrals.)
13. Does the domain include a trademark name? (Look for a trademark in
the URL.)
14. Is the site’s bias clear? (Read the “About.” Look for a statement of
purpose. Read the author’s profile.)
15. Does the site have a professional look? (Look for a clean design and
error-free writing.)
The more questions you can answer in the affirmative, the higher the credibility of
the Web site and the more you can trust it as a source of information. The same
questions can be extended to evaluate the reliability of specific online financial
news sources.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
1. What four measures are the most important indicators of the health of
the economy? What are the other leading economic indicators? Go to a
financial news source to find out the status of all the economic
indicators at this time. Make note of your findings and the date for
purposes of comparison. How does the information inform you as an
investor? Discuss with classmates the implications of the economic
indicators for investing. For example, read the results of the most recent
Consumer Confidence Survey at http://www.conference-board.org/
economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm. How might these survey results
inform you as an investor?
2. Read an article summarizing the index of leading economic indicators
for May 2009 at http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601103&sid=aNHH_lMhARc4. How might an investor have
used the reported information in making investment decisions? Survey
the indexes listed in Figure 14.2 "Examples of Security Indexes". What
role might each index play in choosing assets for a portfolio?
3. Visit the SEC’s EDGAR site at http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml. Take the
tutorial to familiarize yourself with how the site works and then click on
“Search for Company Filings.” Input the name of a company with
publicly traded stock of interest to you. Then click on the company’s
most recent annual report it filed with the SEC. Read the annual report
in its entirety, including parts you don’t understand. Jot down your
questions as you read as if you are thinking of buying shares in that
company. What information encourages you in that decision? What
information raises questions or concerns? Go to the company’s Web site
and check its online documents, news, updates, and the current status of
its stock. Are you further encouraged? Why or why not? Where can you
go next to get data and commentary about the company as an
investment opportunity?
4. Survey the news sources listed in Figure 14.4 "Sample of Financial News
Sources" and number the sites to rank them in order of their usefulness
to you at this time. Record in your personal finance journal or My Notes
your top five sources of financial information and why you chose them.
5. Have you ever mistaken a press release or a blog for hard news when
looking for information online? Read the interviews with journalists,
bloggers, and others debating the reliability and accuracy of news
disseminated through the Internet at http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/
frontline/newswar/tags/reliability.html. This PBS Frontline special
delves into the questions of the credibility and reliability of news
information, including financial news and blogs that we access online.
Commentators include Ted Koppel, Larry Kramer, Eric Schmidt, Craig
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The discussion of investment so far has focused on the ideas behind your
investment plan, but to be useful to you, your plan has to be implemented. You
have to invest, and then, over time, trade. How do you access the capital markets?
How and when do you buy, sell, or hold?
To answer these questions you need to know the types of agents who exercise
trades in the financial markets; the types of services, accounts, and fees they offer;
and the kinds of trading orders they execute on your behalf.
The markets or exchanges for stocks, bonds, commodities, or funds are membership
organizations. Unless you are a member of the exchange, you cannot trade on the
exchange without hiring an agent to execute trades for you. Trading essentially is
buying and selling.
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Chapter 14 The Practice of Investment
Almost all brokerages provide online and mobile access, and most allow you to
access your account information, including trading history, and to place orders and
receive order confirmations online. Some discount brokers operate only online,
that is, they have no retail or storefront offices at all. This allows them to lower
costs and fees. Most brokerages still send out hard copies of such information as
well. Some also provide research reports and tools such as calculators and data for
making asset allocation decisions.
Fees
As firms offer different levels of service, their compensation or fee structures may
vary. A broker is compensated for executing a trade by receiving a commission
based on the volume of the security traded and its price. A discount broker may
offer lower commissions on trades but may provide execution-only services.
A firm may offer all levels of service or specialize in just one. Large discount brokers
such as Fidelity, Scottrade, or Charles Schwab may provide a full range of services
along with execution-only services that charge lower commissions on trades. Other
discount brokers and online-only brokers may charge a lower flat fee per trade,
rather than a commission on the amount of the trade. Some firms charge a
commission on trades and a fee for advisory or discretionary services. The fee is
usually a percentage of the value of the portfolio. Some charge a flat fee for a
quarterly or annual portfolio check-up and advisory services.
Both the commission-based and the fee-based compensation structures have critics.
7. An investor-broker The commission-based structure results in more compensation for the broker (and
relationship where the broker
more cost for you) if there are a greater number of trades. This can lead some
provides advice and guidance
to the client, but investment brokers to engage in excessive trading, called churning9—an unwarranted and
decisions remain the client’s. unnecessary amount of trading in your account for which the broker is being
compensated.
8. An investor-broker
relationship where the
broker’s only role is to execute
trades per the investor’s On the other hand, a fee structure based on a percentage of the value of the assets
decisions. under management can reward a broker for doing nothing. If the economy expands
and asset values rise, the value of the portfolio—and therefore the broker’s
9. A broker practice of executing
trades for a client’s account
compensation—may rise without any effort on the broker’s part.
solely to create commissions
for the broker.
The most economical recourse for an investor is to find a broker who charges a flat
fee for advisory services, independent of portfolio size, and discount fees for
commissions on trading. The costs of investing and trading depend on how much
trading you do and how involved you are in the investment decisions. The more of
the research and advisory work you do for yourself, the less your costs should be.
Brokerage Accounts
Two basic types of brokerage accounts are cash accounts or margin accounts. With
a cash account10, you can trade using only the cash you deposit into the account
directly or as a result of previous trades, dividends, or interest payments. The cash
account is the most common kind of brokerage account.
With a margin account11, you may trade in amounts exceeding the cash available
in the account, in effect borrowing from your broker to complete the financing of
the trade. The investor is said to be “trading on margin.” The broker usually
requires a minimum value for a margin account and extends credit based on the
value of the cash and securities in the portfolio. If your portfolio value drops below
the minimum-value threshold, perhaps because securities values have dropped,
then you may be faced with a margin call12. The broker calls on you to deposit
more into the account.
Brokerage Orders
You need not be an expert in the arcane language brokers use to describe trades, so
long as you understand the basic types of orders you can request. Say you want to
buy a hundred shares of X Corporation’s common stock. You call your broker and
ask the price. The broker says that at this moment, the market is “50 bid-50.25 ask.”
Stock exchanges are auction markets; that is, buyers bid what they are willing to
pay and sellers ask what they’re willing to accept. If the market is “50 bid-50.25
ask,” this means that right now the consensus among buyers is that they are willing
to pay $50 per share, while sellers are willing to accept $50.25. The “bid-ask spread”
or difference is 25 cents.
If you then place a market order15 to buy a hundred shares, the order will be
executed at the lowest asking price—the least that the seller is willing to accept. In
other words, you will pay $50.25 per share, the asking price, to buy the stock.
You could also place a limit order16 to buy the shares when the price is lower, say
$45 per share (or to sell when the price is higher, say $55), specifying how long the
order is in effect. If the price goes down to $45 (or up to $55) within the period of
time, then your limit order will be filled, and otherwise it will not.
a market order. Over the long term that you hold your position, the daily
fluctuations in price won’t matter.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• A broker trades on behalf of clients; a dealer trades for its own account,
and a broker-dealer does both.
• Brokers, dealers, and broker-dealers may be independent firms or
subsidiaries of investment banks, commercial banks, or investment
companies.
◦ discretionary trading,
◦ advisory dealing,
◦ execution only.
◦ commissions on trading,
◦ advisory fees based on portfolio value, or
◦ a flat fee for management.
◦ cash accounts,
◦ margin accounts, or
◦ custodial accounts.
◦ market orders,
◦ limit orders,
◦ stop-loss orders, or
◦ stop-buy orders.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Financial markets, perhaps more than most, seem to seduce otherwise good citizens
into unethical or even illegal behavior. There are several reasons:
To counteract these realities there are three forces at work: market forces,
professional standards, and legal restrictions. But before these topics are discussed,
it is useful to review the differences between ethical and unethical, or professional
and unprofessional, behaviors in this context.
Professional Ethics
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Chapter 14 The Practice of Investment
Brokers and advisors should always deal objectively and fairly with clients, putting
clients’ interests before their own. In other words, a broker should always give
higher priority to the client’s wealth than to his or her own. When acting on a
client’s behalf, a broker should always be aware of the trust that has been placed on
him or her and act with prudence21 and care. The principle of due diligence22
stipulates, for example, that investment advisors and brokers must investigate and
report to the investor every detail of a potential investment.
Kim receives an order from a client to sell shares because the client believes the
stock price will drop. Kim believes the client is right and so decides to sell her own
personal shares in that stock as well. She places the order to sell her shares first, so
that if the price drops as she sells, her shares will be sold at a higher price. She
places the order to sell the client’s shares after the price has dropped. This practice
of taking advantage of the client by not putting the client first is called front-
running23. According to professional ethics, Kim should be putting her client’s
interest—and order—ahead of her own.
Professional ethics call for brokers and advisors to disclose any potential conflicts
of interest they may have. They also should be diligent and thorough when
researching investments and making recommendations and should have an
objective basis for their advice. Investment recommendations should be suitable for
the client, and advice should be given with the best interests of the client in mind.
• clearly explain the logic and grounding for all judgments and advice;
• not try to pressure you into making an investment decision or use
threats or scare tactics to influence you;
• communicate regularly and clearly with you about your portfolio
performance and any market or economic changes that may affect its
performance.
In addition to being loyal to clients, brokers and advisors are expected to be loyal to
employers, the professions, and the financial markets. Accepting side deals, gifts, or
“kickbacks,” for example, may damage a company’s reputation, harm colleagues as
well as clients, and betray the profession. Loyalty to market integrity is shown by
keeping the markets competitive and fair. For example, brokers should use only
information available to all. Information from private sources to which others do
not have access is inside information24, and making trades on the basis of inside
information is called insider trading25.
For example, Jorge, a broker, just found out from a client that the company she
works for is about to be granted a patent for a new product. The information has
not yet been announced publicly, but it will almost certainly increase the value of
the company’s stock. Jorge is tempted to buy the stock immediately, before the
news breaks, both for his employer’s account and his own. He would almost surely
profit and gain points with his boss as well. But that would be wrong. Trading on
inside information would be disloyal to the integrity of the markets, and it is illegal.
Brokers and advisors should not manipulate markets or try to influence or distort
prices to mislead market participants. Attempts to do so have become more
widespread with the tremendous growth of electronic communications. For
example, Tom, a dealer, has just shorted a large position in a tech stock. On his
widely read blog, he announces that his “research” has revealed serious weaknesses
in the tech company’s marketing strategy and rumors of competitors’ greater
advantages in the market. Tom has no factual basis for his reporting, but if his
“news” causes the price of the tech stock to fall, he will profit from his short
position. Tom’s attempts to manipulate the market are unethical and
unprofessional.
The U.S. securities industry is formally regulated by federal and state governments.
Government sanctions and limits have been imposed gradually, usually after a
major market failure or scandal, and so form a collection of rules and laws overseen
by a variety of agencies.
The SEC also requires information disclosures to inform the public about
companies’ financial performance and business strategy. Investors must report to
the SEC their intention to acquire more than 5 percent of a company’s shares, and
business executives must report to the SEC when they buy or sell shares in their
own company. The SEC then tries to minimize the use of insider information by
making it publicly available.
In 2007, the SEC created a new SRO that reincorporated the NASD, renamed as the
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). FINRA’s job is to focus exclusively
on the enforcement of rules governing the securities industry. In addition, Congress
26. A nongovernmental created the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB) as an SRO. The MSRB’s
organization that regulates a
profession or industry.
job is to create rules to protect investors involved with broker-dealers and banks
that trade in tax-exempt bonds and 529 college savings plans.
Figure 14.6 "Regulatory Environment of the U.S. Securities Industry" shows the
structure of the securities industry’s regulatory environment.
The Federal Reserve regulates banks and the banking system. When investment
brokering and advising are services of investment or commercial banks, their
actions may fall under the control of both the SEC and the Fed, as well as state
banking and insurance regulators. States license investment agents. Also, each
state’s attorney general is responsible for investigating securities violations in that
state.
Government regulation of capital markets has long been a contentious issue in the
United States. During periods of expansion and rising asset prices, there is less call
for regulation and enforcement. Clients and investment agents may have fewer
complaints because of investment gains and increasing earnings. When a bubble
bursts or there is a true financial crisis, however, then investors demand
protections and enforcement.
For example, after the stock market crash in 1929 and the widespread bank failures
of 1930–1933, the Glass-Steagall Act was passed in 1933 to establish the Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and take measures to reduce market
speculation. A second Glass-Steagall Act, which was passed the same year and
officially named the Banking Act of 1933, separated investment and commercial
banking to reduce potential conflicts of interest when a bank is issuing securities
for a firm that it is also lending to. In 1999, however, after years of economic
expansion and at the height of the tech stock bubble, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act
effectively repealed the Banking Act of 1933, opening the way for the consolidation
of the banking industry. This consolidation led to the introduction of “one-stop-
shopping” banks, which provide investment, commercial, and retail banking
services all under one roof.
The financial and banking crisis that began in 2007 led to calls for increased
regulation and a larger role for the federal and state governments in regulating the
banking and securities industries. While history shows that the kinds of regulation
and amount of government oversight vary, there clearly will always be a role for
federal and state government regulators.
Investor Protection
If you are not satisfied, however, you can lodge a formal complaint with a
professional organization such as the relevant SRO. The SROs have standard
procedures in place and will investigate your complaint. If necessary, the offender
will be punished by a suspension or permanent removal of his or her professional
designation or certification.
You can also complain to the SEC or a state or federal consumer protection agency,
file suit in civil court, or press for a criminal complaint. Due to their complexities,
investment cases are often somewhat difficult to prove, so you should consult with
an attorney who is experienced with such cases. Often when a broker or advisor has
used illegal practices, she or he has done so with more than one client. When you
are not the only victim, the state or federal prosecutor or your lawyer may choose
to bring a class action suit on behalf of all the client-victims.
from trusted family members, friends, or colleagues who have been satisfied clients.
Before you choose, check with the professional organization with which he or she
claims affiliation or certification and review any records of past complaints or
offenses. You can also check with government agencies such as your state’s
attorney general’s office.
Your choice of advisor or broker depends largely on your expected use of services,
as suggested in Figure 14.7 "Choosing an Investment Advisor or Broker".
You will be investing over a lifetime. The economic, market, and personal
circumstances will change, and your plans and strategies will change, but your
advisors and brokers should be able to help you learn from experience and prosper
from—or despite—those changes.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ their clients,
◦ employers,
◦ professions,
◦ markets.
◦ front-running,
◦ insider trading,
◦ market manipulation.
◦ market forces,
◦ professional associations and self-regulating organizations,
◦ state and federal government oversight and enforcement
agencies.
• Levels of government oversight are politically contentious and subject
to change.
• Through consumer protection laws, investors have recourse for losses
from unprofessional or illegal behavior. The best protection is to make
good choices among financial advisors and investment brokers.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
These risks run the gamut from the challenge of interpreting information correctly
to the risk that too much or too little regulation will interfere with market forces.
International investing also embodies risks relating to foreign markets, economies,
currencies, and politics.
Investment Information
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information is useful to you because you know how to interpret it, because you
know the standardized way in which that information was gathered and prepared.
In the United States, financial statements are prepared using Generally Accepted
Accounting Principles or GAAP, the rules that frame accounting judgments. Those
statements may then be audited by an independent certified public accountant
(CPA) to assure that the accounting rules have been followed.
In other countries, however, accountants do not use GAAP but prepare financial
statements by somewhat different rules. Some of those differences relate
significantly to asset valuations, a key factor in your decision to invest. When you
read financial reports written for foreign companies, therefore, you need to remain
mindful that they are written under different rules and may not mean the same as
financial reports following the U.S. GAAP. At the very least, you should determine
whether the statements you are reading were independently audited.
Other countries also have different standards and procedures for making
information available to investors. One reason that the SEC requires filings of
annual and quarterly reports is to make information publicly and readily available.
Other countries may not have such corporate filing requirements. Information may
be harder to get, and the information that you do get may not be as complete or as
uniform.
Other kinds of information are also important. A good brokerage or advisory firm
will have analysts and researchers “on the ground,” tracking economic and cultural
influences in foreign countries as well as corporations with promising earnings.
Unless a foreign security is listed on an American exchange, you or your broker will
have to purchase it through a foreign exchange. In the United States, a substantial
volume of trade keeps markets liquid, except in relatively rare times of crisis. This
may not be true on some foreign exchanges. In active major capital markets such as
in Western Europe and Japan, there will be plenty of liquidity, but in some emerging
markets, such as in Africa, there may not be. This means that your risk in holding
an investment increases, because you may find it difficult to sell when you want to,
just because the market is not liquid at that time.
Market risk also affects pricing. Market liquidity and the volume of trade helps the
market to function more efficiently in the pricing of assets, so you are more likely
to get a favorable price when trading.
Foreign investments are often used to diversify domestic investments just because
foreign economies are different. They may be in different business cycles or in
different stages of development. While the United States has a long-established,
developed market economy, other countries may have emerging market economies
with less capitalization and less experience in market-driven economic patterns.
Other economies also have different strengths and weaknesses, sources of growth
and vulnerabilities. The U.S. economy is fairly well-diversified, whereas another
economy may be more dependent on fewer industries or on commodities or natural
resources whose prices are volatile. Prospects for economic growth may differ
based on health care and education, tax policies, and trade policies. You want to be
sure that your investment is in an economy that can nurture or at least
accommodate growth.
Perhaps the greatest risk in international investing is currency risk27, risk to the
value of the foreign currency. To invest overseas, you may have to use foreign
currency, and you receive your return in foreign currency. When you change the
foreign currency back into your own currency, differences in the values of the
currencies—the exchange rate—could make your return more or less valuable.
Tim decides to invest in a French business when the exchange rate between the
euro (France) and the dollar (U.S.) is €1.00 = $1.00. So, Tim buys €1,000 of the French
company’s stock for $1,000 (assuming no transaction costs for the currency
exchange or for broker’s fees). One year goes by and Tim decides to sell the stock.
The stock is the same price, €1,000, but the exchange rate has changed. Now €1.00 =
$0.87. If Tim sells his stock, even though its value has not changed, his €1,000 will
only come to $870. Tim has incurred a loss, not because the value of the investment
decreased, but because the value of his currency did.
Political Risks
In 1995 the Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal created the Index of
Economic Freedom (IEF) to try to measure a country’s welcoming of investment and
encouragement of economic growth. Using data from the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), the IEF is based on ten indicators of economic
freedom that measure the governments’ support and constraint of individual
wealth and trade.
Figure 14.9 "2009 Index of Economic Freedom" shows the Index of Economic
Freedom compiled by the Heritage Foundation for 2009 (reproduced courtesy of the
Heritage Foundation). The blue countries, notably the United States, Canada, and
Australia, are the most “free” and the red countries (concentrated in central and
sub-Saharan Africa, parts of the Middle East, and some states of the former U.S.S.R.)
are the least.
Figure 14.9 2009 Index of Economic FreedomThe Heritage Foundation, “The Link between Economic
Opportunity and Prosperity: The 2009 Index of Economic Freedom,” http://www.heritage.org/index (accessed
June 2, 2009).
Governments can change, peacefully or violently, slowly or suddenly, and can even
change their philosophies in governing, especially as they affect participation in the
global economy. Fiscal, monetary, and tax policies can change as well as
fundamental attitudes toward entrepreneurship, ownership, and wealth. For
example, the sudden nationalization or privatization of companies or industries can
increase or decrease growth, return potential, market liquidity, volatility, and even
the viability of those companies or industries. Because changes in fundamental
government policies will affect the economy and its markets, you should research
the country to learn as much as possible about its political risks to you as an
investor.
One of the largest political risks is regulatory risk: that a government will regulate
its economy too little or too much. Too little regulation would reduce the flow of
information, allowing companies to keep information from investors and to trade
on inside information. A lack of regulatory oversight would also allow more
unethical behavior, such as front-running and conflicts of interest.
Too much regulation, on the other hand, could stifle liquidity and also increase the
potential for government corruption. The more government officials oversee more
rules, the more incentive there may be for bribery, favoritism, and corruption,
raising transaction costs and discouraging investment participation.
Often, foreign investments seem promising in part because economic growth may
be higher in an emerging economy, and often, they are. Such economies often have
higher levels of risk, however, because of their emergent character. Before you
invest, you want to be aware of the political and regulatory environment as well as
the economic, market, and investment-specific risk.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
Introduction
By 1976, computers had been around for decades. They were typically the size of a
large room and just as expensive. To use one, you had to learn a programming
language. On April 1, 1976, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, and Ron Wayne started a
company to make personal computers. On January 3, 1977, Jobs and Wozniak
incorporated without Wayne, buying his 10-percent share of the company for
$800.Ronald W. Linzmayer, Apple Confidential: The Real Story of Apple Computer, Inc.
(San Francisco: No Starch Press, 1999). On December 12, 1980, Apple Computer, Inc.,
went public; its stock sold for $22 per share.FundingUniverse, “Company Histories:
Apple Computer, Inc.,” http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/
Apple-Computer-Inc- Company-History.html (accessed June 9, 2009). Had you
bought Apple’s stock when the company went public and held it until today, you
would have earned an annual return of about 14.5 percent. To look at it another
way, $1,000 invested in Apple shares when they went public would be worth over
$50,000 today.Calculations were done by the author, assuming a split-adjusted IPO
price of $2.75 per share (http://blogs.indews.com/financial_analysis/
apple_financial_analysis.php [accessed June 9, 2009]) and a current stock price of
$140 per share (June 2009).
History, as much as it is a litany of wars and rulers struggling for power, is a story of
invention and innovation, broadening our understanding of how the world works
and, if successful, improving the quality of our lives. Theoretical milestones have to
be made practical, however, to be truly effective. The steam engine, the light bulb,
the telephone—and the personal computer—had to be produced and sold to be
widely used and useful.
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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
If the costs of debt (interest payments) are affordable, the company may choose to
borrow, which limits the company’s commitment to its capital contributor. When
the loan matures and is paid off, the relationship is over.
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Chapter 15 Owning Stocks
2. Private equity provided to Going public requires a profound shift in the corporate structure and management.
facilitate excessive growth
Once a company is publicly traded, it falls under the regulatory scrutiny of federal
before the initial public
offering of shares. and state governments, and must regularly file financial reports and analysis. It
must broaden participation on the board of directors and allow more oversight of
3. Equity not traded in a public
management. Companies go public to raise large amounts of capital to expand
market or exchange.
products, operations, markets, or to improve or create competitive advantages. To
4. To raise capital by issuing raise public equity capital, companies need to sell stock, and to sell stock they need
equity shares through a public
a market. That’s where the stock markets come in.
exchange.
secondary market8 transaction. The owner of the stock may sell shares and realize
the proceeds. When most people think of “the stock market,” they are thinking of
the secondary markets.
The existence of secondary markets makes the stock a liquid or tradable asset,
which reduces its risk for both the issuing company and the investor buying it. The
investor is giving up capital in exchange for a share of the company’s profit, with
the risk that there will be no profit or not enough to compensate for the
opportunity cost of sacrificing the capital. The secondary markets reduce that risk
to the shareholder because the stock can be resold, allowing the shareholder to
recover at least some of the invested capital and to make new choices with it.
Meanwhile, the company issuing the stock must pay the investor for assuming some
of its risk. The less that risk is, because of the liquidity provided by the secondary
markets, the less the company has to pay. The secondary markets decrease the
company’s cost of equity capital.
A company hires an investment bank to manage its initial public offering of stock.
For efficiency, the bank usually sells the IPO stock to institutional investors.
Usually, the original owners of the corporation keep large amounts of stock as well.
What does this mean for individual investors? Some investors believe that after an
initial public offering of stock, the share price will rise because the investment bank
will have initially underpriced the stock in order to sell it. This is not always the
case, however. Share price is typically more volatile after an initial public offering
than it is after the shares have been outstanding for a while. The longer the
company has been public, the more information is known about the company, and
the more predictable its earnings are and thus share price.M. B. Lowery, M. S.
Officer, and G. W. Schwert, “The Variability of IPO Initial Returns,” Journal of
Finance, http://schwert.ssb.rochester.edu/ipovolatility.htm (accessed June 9, 2009).
When a company goes public, it may issue a relatively small number of shares. Its
market capitalization9—the total dollar value of its outstanding shares—may
therefore be small. The number of individual shareholders, mostly institutional
investors and the original owners, also may be small. As a result, the shares may be
“thinly traded,” traded infrequently or in small amounts.
Thinly traded shares may add to the volatility of the share price. One large
8. A market in which outstanding
shares are traded. shareholder deciding to sell could cause a decrease in the stock price, for example,
whereas for a company with many shares and shareholders, the actions of any one
9. The total market value of a shareholder would not be significant. As always, diversification—in this case of
corporation’s capital.
shareholders—decreases risk. Thinly traded shares are less liquid and more risky
than shares that trade more frequently.
Common stock allows each shareholder voting rights—one vote for each share
owned. The more shares you own, the more you can influence the company’s
management. Shareholders vote for the company’s directors, who provide policy
guidance for and hire the management team that directly operates the corporation.
After several corporate scandals in the early twenty-first century, some
shareholders have become more active in their voting role.
preferred shareholders have a superior claim on the company’s assets in the event
of bankruptcy. They get their original investment back before common
shareholders but after creditors.
For the individual investor, preferred stock may have two additional advantages
over common stock:
As the company goes through its ups and downs, the preferred stock price will
fluctuate less than the common stock price. If the company does poorly, preferred
stockholders are more likely to be able to recoup more of their original investment
than common shareholders because of their superior claim. If the company does
well, however, preferred stockholders are less likely to share more in its success
because their dividend is fixed. Preferred shareholders thus are exposed to less risk,
protected by their superior claim and fixed dividend. The preferred stock price
reflects less of the company’s volatility.
Because the preferred dividend is more of an obligation than the common dividend,
it provides more predictable dividend income for shareholders. This makes the
preferred stock less risky and attractive to an investor looking for less volatility and
more regular dividend income.
Corporations often issue and trade their stocks on exchanges or in markets outside
their home country, especially if the foreign market has more liquidity and will
attract more buyers. Many foreign corporations issue and trade stock on the New
York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or on the National Association of Securities Dealers
Automated Quotations (NASDAQ), for example.
The ADR is usually listed on a major U.S. stock exchange, such as the New York
Stock Exchange, or is quoted on the NASDAQ. One ADR can represent more or less
than one share of the foreign stock, depending on its price and the currency
exchange rate, so that the bank issuing the ADR can “price” it according to the
norms of U.S. stock markets.
13. An asset representing equity
shares in a foreign corporation
trading in U.S. markets.
ADRs lower transaction costs for U.S. investors investing in foreign corporations.
Because they are denominated in U.S. dollars, they lower exchange rate or currency
risk for U.S. investors. They also lower your usual risks with investing overseas,
such as lack of information and too much or too little regulatory oversight.
In return for marketing their shares in the lucrative U.S. market, foreign companies
must provide U.S. banks with detailed financial reports. This puts available foreign
corporate information on par with that of U.S. companies. Because they are issued
and sold in the United States on U.S. exchanges, ADRs fall under the regulatory
control of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and other federal and
state regulatory agencies, which also lowers your risk.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The value of a stock is in its ability to create a return, to create income or a gain in
value for the investor. With common stock, the income is in the form of a dividend,
which the company is not obligated to pay. The potential gain is determined by
estimations of the future value of the stock.
If you knew that the future value would likely be more than the current market
price—over your transaction costs, tax consequences, and opportunity cost—then
you would buy the stock.
If you thought the future value would be less, you would short the stock (borrow it
to sell with the intent of buying it back when its price falls), or you would just look
for another investment.
Every investor wants to know what a stock will be worth, which is why so many
stock analysts spend so much time estimating future value. Equity analysis is the
process of gathering as much information as possible and making the most
educated guesses.
Corporations exist to make profit for the owners. The better a corporation is at
doing that, the more valuable it is, and the more valuable are its shares. A company
also needs to increase earnings, or grow, because the global economy is
competitive. A corporation’s future value depends on its ability to create and grow
earnings.
That ability depends on many factors. Some factors are company-specific, some are
specific to the industry or sector, and some are macroeconomic forces. Chapter 12
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"Investing" discussed these factors in terms of the risk that a stock creates for the
investor. The risk is that the company will not be able to earn the expected profit.
A company’s size is an indicator of its earnings and growth potential. Size may
correlate with age. A large company typically is more mature than a smaller one,
for example. A larger company may have achieved economies of scale or may have
gotten large by eliminating competitors or dominating its market. Size in itself is
not an indicator of success, but similarly sized companies tend to have similar
earnings growth.E. F. Fama and K. R. French, “The Cross-section of Expected Stock
Returns,” Journal of Finance 47 (1992): 427–86.
The economist John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946) famously compared the securities
markets with a newspaper beauty contest. You “won” not because you could pick
the prettiest contestant, but because you could pick the contestant that everyone
else would pick as the prettiest contestant. In other words, the stock market is a
popularity contest, but the “best” stock was not necessarily the most popular.
“The smart player recognizes that personal criteria of beauty are irrelevant in
determining the contest winner. A better strategy is to select those faces the other
players are likely to fancy. This logic tends to snowball. After all, the other
participants are likely to play the game with at least as keen a perception. Thus, the
optimal strategy is not to pick those faces the player thinks are prettiest, or those
the other players are likely to fancy, but rather to predict what the average opinion
is likely to be about what the average opinion will be.”Burton G. Malkiel, A Random
Walk Down Wall Street (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2007).
In the stock market, the forces of supply and demand determine stock prices. The
more demand or popularity there is for a company’s stock, the higher its price will
go (unless the company issues more shares). A stock is popular, and thus in greater
demand, if it is thought to be more valuable—that is, if it has more earnings and
growth potential.
Definition Role
Definition Role
Speculative Overvalued by the market; Expect the price to continue rising for a time
stock18 overpriced. before it falls.
Widow-
and-
A blue chip defensive stock. Expect a steady dividend.
orphan
stock20
Wallflower Overlooked and therefore Expect the value to rise when the stock is
stock21 underpriced. “discovered.”
Penny Low-priced stock of a small Expect the value to rise if and when the
stock22 or micro cap company. company succeeds.
Each term in Table 15.1 "Definitions of Stocks and their Roles in a Portfolio" names
a stock’s relationship to the market and to investors. For example, an investor who
wants to invest in stocks but wants to minimize economic risk would include
defensive stocks such as Boeing (a large military contractor) in the stock portfolio
along with some blue chips, such as Coca Cola or Proctor and Gamble. Implicit is its
potential for price growth, risk, or role in a diversified portfolio.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
19. Stock of a corporation with a • Stocks can be characterized by their expected behavior relative
history of providing steady
returns. to the market as
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The ratios described here are commonly presented in news outlets and Web sites
where stocks are discussed (e.g., http://www.nasdaq.com), so chances are you won’t
have to calculate them yourself. Nevertheless, it is important to understand what
they mean and how to use them in your investment thinking.
Return Ratios
One of the most useful ratios in looking at stocks is the earnings per share (EPS)23
ratio. It calculates the company’s earnings, the portion of a company’s profit
allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. The calculation lets you see
how much you benefit from holding each share. Here is the formula for calculating
EPS:
EPS = (net income − preferred stock dividends) ÷ average number of common shares
outstanding
23. The dollar value of the The company’s earnings are reported on its income statement as net income, so a
earnings per each share of shareholder could easily track earnings growth. However, EPS allows you to make a
common stock.
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Chapter 15 Owning Stocks
When a stock pays a dividend, that dividend is income for the shareholder.
Investors concerned with the cash flows provided by an equity investment look at
dividends per share24 or DPS as a measure of the company’s ability and willingness
to pay a dividend.
dividend yield = dividend per share (in dollars) ÷ price per share (in dollars)
For example, Microsoft, Inc., has a share price of around $24, pays an annual
dividend of $4.68 billion, and has about nine billion shares outstanding; for the past
year, it shows earnings of $15.3 billion.NASDAQ, http://quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/
SummaryQuote.asp?symbol=MSFT& selected=MSFT (accessed July 29, 2009).
Assuming it has not issued preferred stock and so pays no preferred stock
dividends,
Microsoft earned $15.3 billion, or $1.70 for each share of stock held by stockholders,
from which $0.52 is actually paid out to shareholders. So if you buy a share of
Microsoft by investing $24, the cash return provided to you by the company’s
24. The dollar value of the dividend is 2.1667 percent.
dividend return to each share
of stock.
Earnings are either paid out as dividends or are retained by the company as capital.
25. The return provided by the
That capital is used by the company to finance operations, capital investments such
dividend relative to the share
price, or the dividend per each as new assets for expansion and growth or repayment of debt.
dollar of investment, given its
market price.
The dividend is the return on investment that comes as cash while you own the
stock. Some investors see the dividend as a more valuable form of return than the
earnings that are retained as capital by the company. It is more liquid, since it
comes in cash and comes sooner than the gain that may be realized when the stock
is sold (more valuable because time affects value). It is the “bird in the hand,”
perhaps less risky than waiting for the eventual gain from the company’s retained
earnings26.
Some investors see a high dividend as a sign of the company’s strength, indicative
of its ability to raise ample capital through earnings. Dividends are a sign that the
company can earn more capital than it needs to finance operations, make capital
investments, or repay debt. Thus, dividends are capital that can be spared from use
by the company and given back to investors.
As an investor, you need to look at dividends in the context of the company and
your own income needs.
Growth Ratios
The more earnings are paid out to shareholders as dividends, the less earnings are
retained by the company as capital.
Since Microsoft has earnings of $15.3 billion and dividends of $4.68 billion, it must
retain $10.62 billion of its earnings. So, for Microsoft,
There is no benchmark dividend payout or retention ratio for every company; they
vary depending on the age and size of the company, industry, and economic
climate. These numbers are useful, however, to get a sense of the company’s
strategy and to compare it to competitors.
A company’s value is in its ability to grow and to increase earnings. The rate at
which it can retain capital, earn it and not pay it out as dividends, is a factor in
determining how fast it can grow. This rate is measured by the internal growth
rate29 and the sustainable growth rate. The internal growth rate answers the
question, “How fast could the company grow (increase earnings) without any new
capital, without borrowing or issuing more stock?” Given how good the company is
at taking capital and turning it into assets and using those assets to create earnings,
the internal growth rate looks at how fast the company can grow without any new
borrowing or new shares issued.
The sustainable growth30 rate answers the question, “How fast could the company
grow without changing the balance between using debt and using equity for
capital?” Given how good the company is at taking capital and turning it into assets
and using those assets to create earnings, the sustainable growth rate looks at how
fast the company can grow if it uses some new borrowing, but keeps the balance
29. The maximum rate of growth between debt and equity capital stable.
achieved without any issuance
of debt or new equity capital.
Both growth rates use the retention rate as a factor in allowing growth. The fastest
30. The maximum rate of growth
possible without changing the rate of growth could be achieved by having a 100 percent retention rate, that is, by
use of debt and equity capital. paying no dividends and retaining all earnings as capital.
An investor who is not using stocks as a source of income but for their potential
gain may look for higher growth rates (evidenced by a higher retention rate and a
lower dividend payout rate). An investor looking for income from stocks would
instead be attracted to companies offering a higher dividend payout rate and a
lower retention rate (despite lower growth rates).
While return and growth ratios are measures of a company’s fundamental value,
and therefore the value of its stocks, the actual stock price is affected by the
market. Investors’ demand can result in underpricing or overpricing of a stock,
depending on its attractiveness in relation to other investment choices or
opportunity cost.
A stock’s market value can be compared with that of other stocks. The most
common measure for doing so is the price-to-earnings ratio31, or P/E. Price-to-
earnings ratio is calculated by dividing the price per share (in dollars) by the
earnings per share (in dollars). The result shows the investment needed for every
dollar of return that the stock creates.
For Microsoft, for example, the price per share is around $24, and the EPS is $1.70,
so the P/E = 24.00/1.70 = $14.12. This means that the price per share is around
fourteen times bigger than the earnings per share.
The larger the P/E ratio, the more expensive the stock is and the more you have to
invest to get one dollar’s worth of earnings in return. To get $1.00 of Microsoft’s
earnings, you have to invest around $14. By comparing the P/E ratio of different
companies, you can see how expensive they are relative to each other.
A low P/E ratio could be a sign of weakness. Perhaps the company has problems
that make it riskier going forward, even if it has earnings now, so the future
expectations and thus the price of the stock is now low. Or it could be a sign of a
buying opportunity for a stock that is currently underpriced.
A high P/E ratio could be a sign of a company with great prospects for growth and
so a higher price than would be indicted by its earnings alone. On the other hand, a
31. The ratio of a stock’s market
value per share to its earnings high P/E could indicate a stock that is overpriced and has nowhere to go but down.
per share, or the market value In that case, a high P/E ratio would be a signal to sell your stock.
of one dollar of the company’s
earnings.
How do you know if the P/E ratio is “high” or “low”? You can compare it to other
companies in the same industry or to the average P/E ratio for a stock index of
similar type companies based on company size, age, debt levels, and so on. As with
any of the ratios discussed here, this one is useful in comparison.
Since the price per share is the market value of equity per share, the P/B ratio
compares the current market value of the company’s equity to its book value. If that
ratio is greater than one, then the company’s equity is worth more than its original
value, and the company has been increasing its value. If that ratio is less than one,
then the company’s current value is less than its original value, so the value has
been decreasing. A P/B of one would indicate that a company has just been breaking
even in terms of value over the years.
The higher the P/B ratio, the better the company has done in increasing its value
over time. You can calculate the ratio for different companies and compare them by
their ability to increase value.
Figure 15.5 "Ratios and Their Uses" provides a summary of the return, growth, and
market value ratios.
Ratios can be used to compare a company with its past performance, with its
competitors, or with competitive investments. They can be used to project a stock’s
future value based on the company’s ability to earn, grow, and be a popular
investment. A company has to have fundamental value to be an investment choice,
but it also has to have market value to have its fundamental value appreciated in
the market and to have its price reflect its fundamental value.
To go back to Keynes’s analogy: it may take beauty to win a beauty contest, but
beauty has to shine through to be appreciated by a majority of the judges. And
beauty, as you know, is in the eye of the beholder.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Earnings per share (EPS) and dividends per share (DPS) indicate stock
returns on investment.
• Dividend yield measures a shareholder’s cash return relative to
investment.
• Growth ratios such as the internal and sustainable growth rates indicate
the company’s ability to grow given earnings and dividend expectations.
• Market value ratios, most commonly price-to-earnings and price-to-
book, indicate a stock’s market popularity and its effects on its price.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The best stock strategy is to know what you are looking for (i.e., what kind of stock
will fulfill the role you want it to play in your portfolio) and to do the analyses you
need to find it. That is easier said than done, however, and requires that you have
the knowledge, skill, and data for stock analysis. Commonly used general stock
strategies may be long term (returns achieved in more than one year) or short term
(returns achieved in less than one year), but the strategies you choose should fit
your investing horizon, risk tolerance, and needs. An important part of that
strategy, as with financial planning in general, is to check your stock investments
and reevaluate your holdings regularly. How regularly depends on to long- or short-
term horizon of your investing strategies.
Long-Term Strategies
476
Chapter 15 Owning Stocks
An investor uses dollar-cost averaging when regular payroll deductions are made to
fund defined contribution retirement plans, such as a 401(k) or a 403b. The same
amount is contributed to the plan in regular intervals and is typically used to
purchase the same set of specified assets.
Direct investment and dividend reinvestment are ways of buying shares directly
from a company without going through a broker. This allows you to avoid
35. The strategy of investing brokerage commissions. Direct investment36 means purchasing shares from the
regular dollar amounts at company, while dividend reinvestment37 means having your dividends
regular intervals in one
automatically invested in more shares (rather than being sent to you as cash).
security.
Dividend reinvestment is also a way of building up your equity in the stock by
36. A real estate investment in reinvesting cash that you might otherwise spend.
which you are the owner and
manager of property.
The advantage of direct investment and dividend reinvestment is primarily the
37. The practice of using dividends
to automatically purchase savings on brokers’ commissions. You can also buy fractional shares or less than a
additional shares. whole share, and there is no minimum amount to invest, as there can be with
Short-Term Strategies
This value-growth weighting strategy relies on market timing, which is difficult for
38. The strategy of using index the individual investor. It also relies on correctly identifying growth and value
funds to achieve diversification stocks and market trends in their favor, complicating the process of market timing
rather than specifically even further.
selecting individual securities.
Day trading39 is a very short-term strategy of taking and closing a position in a day
or two. Literally, it means buying in the morning and selling in the afternoon. Day
trading became popular in the 1990s when stock prices were riding the tide of the
tech stock bubble. At that time it was possible to hold a stock for just a few hours
and earn a gain. Technology, especially the Internet, also made real-time quotes
and other market data available to individual investors at a reasonable cost. At the
same time, Internet and discount brokers drove down the costs of trading.
Day trading declined, but did not die, after the tech bubble burst. It turns out that
in a bubble, any strategy can make money, but when market volatility is more
closely related to earnings potential and fundamental value, there iis no shortcut to
doing your homework, knowing as much as possible about your investments, and
making appropriate strategic choices for you.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
Introduction
Since bonds are a different form of capital than stocks, and since bond investments
are made in different kinds of borrowers, bonds offer diversification from the
stocks in your portfolio. Your use of bonds may change over time, as your risk
tolerance or liquidity needs change.
481
Chapter 16 Owning Bonds
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Bonds are a relatively old form of financing. Formalized debt arrangements long
preceded corporate structure and the idea of equity (stock) as we know it. Venice
issued the first known government bonds of the modern era in 1157,Isadore
Barmash, The Self-Made Man (Washington, DC: Beard Books, 2003), 55. while private
bonds are cited in British records going back to the thirteenth century.George
Burton Adams, The Constitutional History of England (London: H. Holt, 1921), 93.
Venice issued bonds to raise funds to finance a Crusade against Constantinople,
which included expansion of a shipyard attached to the Venetian Arsenal. (Go to
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venetian_Arsenal to view images.)
Bonds
482
Chapter 16 Owning Bonds
3. The interest rate offered on a The coupon1 is usually paid to the investor twice yearly. It is calculated as a
bond. percentage of the face value2—amount borrowed—so that the annual coupon =
4. A benchmark interest rate coupon rate × face value. By convention, each individual bond has a face value of
understood to be the rate that $1,000. A corporation issuing a bond to raise $100 million would have to issue
major banks charge corporate 100,000 individual bonds (100,000,000 divided by 1,000). If those bonds pay a 4
borrowers with the least
default risk. percent coupon, a bondholder who owns one of those bonds would receive a coupon
of $40 per year (1,000 × 4%), or $20 every six months.
5. A bond that has a coupon rate
of zero, and therefore a coupon
of zero. Its only cash flow The coupon rate3 of interest on the bond may be fixed or floating and may change.
return is the principal
A floating rate is usually based on another interest benchmark, such as the U.S.
repayment at maturity.
prime rate4, a widely recognized benchmark of prevailing interest rates.
6. Bonds whose coupon payments
are deferred until a specified
time. A zero-coupon bond5 has a coupon rate of zero: it pays no interest and repays only
7. Deferred coupon bonds that
the principal at maturity. A “zero” may be attractive to investors, however, because
pay no interest for a specified it can be purchased for much less than its face value. There are deferred coupon
period, followed by higher- bonds6 (also called split-coupon bonds7 and issued below par), which pay no
than-normal interest payments interest for a specified period, followed by higher-than-normal interest payments
until maturity.
until maturity. There are also step-up bonds8 that have coupons that increase over
8. A bond with a floating-rate time.
coupon that is scheduled to
increase at specified intervals.
The face value, the principal amount borrowed, is paid back at maturity. If the bond
is callable9, it may be redeemed after a specified date but before maturity. A
borrower typically “calls” its bonds after prevailing interest rates have fallen,
making lower-cost debt available. Borrowers can borrow new, cheaper debt and pay
off the older, more expensive debt. As an investor (lender), you would be paid back
early, which sounds great, but because interest rates have fallen, you would have
trouble finding another bond investment that would pay as high a rate of return.
11. A bond secured by a specific A bond specifies if the borrower has more than one bond issue outstanding or more
asset such as real property or
equipment. than one set of lenders to repay, which establishes the bond’s seniority in relation
to previously issued debt. This “pecking order” determines which lenders will be
12. A bond secured by only the paid back first in case of default on the debt or bankruptcy. Thus, when the
“full faith and credit” of the
borrower and not by any
borrower does not meet its coupon obligations, investors holding senior debt13 as
specific asset. opposed to subordinated debt14 have less risk of default.
years), and Treasury bonds19 for long-term borrowing for more than ten years. The
federal government also issues Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)20.
TIPS pay a fixed coupon, but the principal adjusts with inflation. At maturity, you
are repaid either the original principal or the inflation-adjusted principal,
whichever is greater.
State and municipal governments issue revenue bonds or general obligation bonds.
A revenue bond21 is repaid out of the revenue generated by the project that the
debt is financing. For example, toll revenue may secure a debt that finances a
highway. A general obligation bond22 is backed by the state or municipal
government, just as a corporate debenture is backed by the corporation.
Interest from state and municipal bonds23 (also called “munis”) may not be subject
to federal income taxes. Also, if you live in that state or municipality, the interest
may not be subject to state and local taxes. The tax exemption differs from bond to
bond, so you should be sure to check before you invest. Even if the interest is not
taxable, however, any gain (or loss) from the sale of the bond is taxed, so you should
not think of munis as “tax-free” bonds.
Foreign corporations and governments issue bonds. You should keep in mind,
however, that foreign government defaults are not uncommon. Mexico in 1994,
Russia in 1998, and Argentina in 2001 are all recent examples. Foreign corporate or
sovereign debt also exposes the bondholder to currency risk, as coupons and
principal will be paid in the foreign currency. Figure 16.2 "Bond Issuers and Terms"
19. Bonds issued by the U.S.
shows a summary of bonds and their issuers.
government with a maturity of
more than ten years.
20. Bonds issued by the U.S. Figure 16.2 Bond Issuers and Terms
government with an adjustable
face value designed to protect
the bondholder against
inflation risk.
Bond Markets
The volume of capital traded in the bond markets is far greater than what is traded
in the stock markets. All sorts of borrowers issue bonds: corporations; national,
state and municipal governments; and government agencies. Even small towns
issue bonds to finance capital expenditures such as schools, fire stations, and roads.
Each kind of bond has its own market.
Private placement24 refers to bonds that are issued in a private sale rather than
through the public markets. The investors in privately placed bonds are
institutional investors such as insurance companies, endowments, and pension
funds.
U.S. Treasury bonds are issued to the primary market through auctions.
Participants, usually dealers or institutional investors, bid for the bonds, but no one
participant is allowed to buy enough shares to monopolize the secondary market.
Individuals can also buy Treasuries directly from the U.S. Treasury through its
online service, called TreasuryDirect
(http://www.treasurydirect.gov/).TreasuryDirect, http://www.treasurydirect.gov/
(accessed June 13, 2009).
To provide guidance, rating agencies25 provide bond ratings; that is, they “grade”
individual bond issues based on the likelihood of default and thus the risk to the
investor. Rating agencies are independent agents that base their ratings on the
financial stability of the company, its business strategy, competitive environment,
outlook for the industry and the economy—any factors that may affect the
company’s ability to meet coupon obligations and pay back debt at maturity.
Ratings agencies such as Fitch Ratings, A. M. Best, Moody’s, and Standard & Poor’s
(S&P) are hired by large borrowers to analyze the company and rate its debt.
Moody’s also rates government debt. Ratings agencies use an alphabetical system to
24. An issuance of bonds through a grade bonds (shown in Figure 16.3 "Bond Ratings") based on the highest-to-lowest
private deal rather than rankings of two well-known agencies.
through the public markets.
A plus sign (+) following a rating indicates that it is likely to be upgraded, while a
minus sign (−) following a rating indicates that it is likely to be downgraded.
Bonds rated BBB or Baa and above are considered investment grade bonds26,
relatively low risk and “safe” for both individual and institutional investors. Bonds
rated below BBB or Baa are speculative in that they carry some default risk. These
are called speculative grade bonds27, junk bonds28, or high-yield bonds29.
Because they are riskier, speculative grade bonds need to offer investors a higher
return or yield in order to be “priced to sell.”
26. Bonds rated BBB or Baa or Although the term “junk bonds” sounds derogatory, not all speculative grade bonds
higher and considered to carry are “worthless” or are issued by “bad” companies. Bonds may receive a speculative
insignificant default risk. rating if their issuers are young companies, in a highly competitive market, or
27. High yield bonds rated BB or capital intensive, requiring lots of operating capital. Any of those features would
Ba or lower and considered to make it harder for a company to meet its bond obligations and thus may consign its
have significant default risk. bonds to a speculative rating. In the 1980s, for example, companies such as CNN and
28. High yield bonds rated BB or MCI Communications Corporation issued high-yield bonds, which became lucrative
Ba or lower and considered to investments as the companies grew into successful corporations.
have significant default risk.
29. Bonds rated BB or Ba or lower, Default risk is the risk that a company won’t have enough cash to meet its interest
considered to have significant
default risk.
payments and principal payment at maturity. That risk depends, in turn, on the
company’s ability to generate cash, profit, and grow to remain competitive. Bond-
rating agencies analyze an issuer’s default risk by studying its economic, industry,
and firm-specific environments and estimate its current and future ability to satisfy
its debts. The default risk analysis is similar to equity analysis, but bondholders are
more concerned with cash flows—cash to pay back the bondholders—and profits
rather than profits alone.
Bond ratings can determine the coupon rate the issuer must offer investors to
compensate them for default risk. The higher the risk, the higher the coupon must
be. Ratings agencies have been criticized recently for not being objective enough in
their ratings of the corporations that hire them. Nevertheless, over the years bond
ratings have proven to be a reliable guide for bond investors.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Bond-rating systems do not replace bond analysis, which focuses on bond value.
Like any investment, a bond is worth the value of its expected return. That value
depends on the amount expected and the certainty of that expectation. To
understand bond values, then, is to understand the value of its return and the costs
of its risks.
Bonds return two cash flows to their investors: (1) the coupon, or the interest paid
at regular intervals, usually twice yearly or yearly, and (2) the repayment of the
principal at maturity. The amounts are spelled out in the bond itself. The coupon
rate is specified (for a fixed-rate bond) and the face value is the principal to be
returned at the stated maturity.
Unlike a stock, for which the cash flows—both the amount and the timing—are “to
be determined,” in a bond everything about the cash flows is established at the
outset. Any bond feature that makes those cash flows less certain increases the risk
to the investor and thus the investor’s return. If the bond has a floating-rate
coupon, for example, then there is uncertainty about the amount of the coupon
payments. If the bond is callable, there is uncertainty about the number of coupon
payments.
491
Chapter 16 Owning Bonds
Bond Returns
Unlike a stock, a bond’s future cash returns are known with certainty. You know
what the coupon will be (for a fixed-rate bond) and you know that at maturity the
bond will return its face value. For example, if a bond pays a 4 percent coupon and
matures in 2020, you know that every year your will receive $20 twice per year (20 =
4% × 1,000 × ½) until 2020 when you will also receive the $1,000 face value at
maturity. You know what you will get and when you will get it. However, you can’t
be sure what that will be worth to you when you do. You don’t know what your
opportunity cost will be at the time.
Investment returns are quoted as an annual percentage of the amount invested, the
rate of return. For a bond, that rate is the yield. Yield is expressed in two ways: the
current yield and the yield to maturity. The current yield30 is a measure of your
bond’s rate of return in the short term, if you buy the bond today and keep it for
one year. You can calculate the current yield by looking at the coupon for the year
as a percentage of your investment or the current price, which is the market price
of the bond.
current yield = annual coupon (interest received, or cash flows) ÷ market value =
So, if you bought a 4 percent coupon bond, which is selling for $960 today (its
market value), and kept it for one year, the current yield would be 40 (annual
coupon) ÷ 960 (market value) = 4.1667%. The idea of the current yield is to give you a
quick look at your immediate returns (your return for the next year).
In contrast, the yield to maturity31 (YTM) is a measure of your return if you bought
the bond and held it until maturity, waiting to claim the face value. That calculation
is a bit more complicated, because it involves the relationship between time and
value (Chapter 4 "Evaluating Choices: Time, Risk, and Value"), since the yield is over
the long term until the bond matures. You will find bond yield-to-maturity
calculators online, and many financial calculators have the formulas
preprogrammed.
Bond prices, their market values, have an inverse relationship to the yield to
maturity. As the price goes down, the yield goes up, and as the price goes up, the
yield goes down. This makes sense because the payout at maturity is fixed as the
face value of the bond ($1,000). Thus, the only way a bond can have a higher rate of
return is to have a lower price in the first place.
You can use the yield to maturity to compare bonds to see how good they are at
creating returns. This yield holds if you hold the bond until maturity, but you may
sell the bond at any time. When you sell the bond before maturity, you may have a
gain or a loss, since the market value of the bond may have increased or decreased
since you bought it. That gain or loss would be part of your return along with the
coupons you have received over the holding period, the period of time that you
held the bond.
Your holding period yield32 is the annualized rate of return that you receive
depending on how long you have held the bond, its gain or loss in market value, and
the coupons you received in that period. For example, if you bought the bond for
$960 and sold it again for $980 after two years, your return in dollars would be the
coupons of $80 ($40 per year × 2 years) plus your gain of $20 ($980 − 960), relative to
your original investment of $960. Your holding period yield would be close to 5.2
percent.
Bond Risks
The basic risk of bond investing is that the returns—the coupon and the principal
repayment (face value)—will not be repaid, or that when they are repaid, they won’t
be worth as much as you thought they would be. The risk that the company will be
unable to make its payments is default risk—the risk that it will default on the bond.
You can estimate default risk by looking at the bond rating as well as the economic,
sector, and firm-specific factors that define the company’s soundness.
Part of a bond’s value is that you can expect regular coupon payments in cash. You
could spend the money or reinvest it. There is a risk, however, that when you go to
reinvest the coupon, you will not find another investment opportunity that will pay
as high a return because interest rates and yields have fallen. This is called
reinvestment risk33. Your coupons are the amount you thought they would be, but
they are not worth as much as you expected, because you cannot earn as much from
them.
If interest rates and bond yields have dropped, your fixed-rate bond, which is still
paying the now-higher-than-other-bonds coupon, has become more valuable. Its
market price has risen. But the only way to realize the gain from the higher price is
32. The annualized return on a to sell the bond, and then you won’t have any place to invest the proceeds in other
bond over the period it is bonds to earn as much return.
owned.
35. The risk that the value of a Another threat to the value of your coupons and principal repayment is inflation.
bond’s returns will be
decreased by a decrease in
Inflation risk35 is the risk that your coupons and principal repayment will not be
value of the currency of the worth as much as you thought, because inflation has decreased the purchasing
bond’s denomination. power or the value of the dollars you receive.
A bond’s features can make it more or less vulnerable to these risks. In general, the
longer the term to maturity is, the riskier the bond is. The longer the term is, the
greater the probability that the bond will be affected by a change in interest rates, a
period of inflation, or a damaging business cycle.
In general, the lower the coupon rate and the smaller the coupon, the more
sensitive the bond will be to a change in interest rates. The lower the coupon rate
and the smaller the coupon, the more of the bond’s return comes from the
repayment of principal, which only happens at maturity. More of your return is
deferred until maturity, which also makes it more sensitive to interest rate risk. A
bond with a larger coupon provides more liquidity, over the term of the bond, and
less exposure to risk. Figure 16.5 "Bond Characteristics and Risks" shows the
relationship between bond characteristics and risks.
A zero-coupon bond offers the lowest coupon rate possible: zero. Investors avoid
reinvestment risk since the only return—and reinvestment opportunity—comes
when the principal is returned at maturity. However, a “zero” is exposed to the
maximum interest rate risk, because interest rates will always be higher than its
coupon rate of zero. The attraction of a zero is that it can be bought for a very low
price.
As a bond investor, you can make better decisions if you understand how the
characteristics of bonds affect their risks and yields as you use those yields to
compare and choose bonds.
Yield Curve
Interest rates affect bond risks and bond returns. If you plan to hold a bond until
maturity, interest rates also affect reinvestment risk. If you plan to sell the bond
before maturity, you face interest rate risk or the risk of a loss of market value.
When you invest in bonds, then, you want to be able to forecast future interest
rates.
Investors can get a sense of how interest rates are expected to change in the future
by studying the yield curve. The yield curve36 is a graph of U.S. Treasury securities
compared in terms of the yields for bonds of different maturities. U.S. Treasury
securities are used because the U.S. government is considered to have no default
risk, so that the yields on its bills and bonds reflect only interest rate, reinvestment,
and inflation risks—all of which are reflected in expected, future interest rates.
The yield curve illustrates the term structure of interest rates37, or the
relationship of interest rates to time. Usually, the yield curve is upward
sloping—that is, long-term rates are higher than short-term rates. Long-term rates
indicate expected future rates. If the economy is expanding, future interest rates
are expected to be higher than current interest rates, because capital is expected to
be more productive in the future. Future interest rates will also be higher if there is
inflation because lenders will want more interest to make up for the fact that the
currency has lost some of its purchasing power. Figure 16.6 "Upward-Sloping Yield
Curve" shows an upward-sloping yield curve.
Figure 16.6 Upward-Sloping Yield CurveU.S. Department of the Treasury, “Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates,”
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/
TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2007 (accessed May 23, 2012).
Depending on economic forecasts, the yield curve can also be flat, as in Figure 16.7
"Flat Yield Curve", or downward sloping, as in Figure 16.8 "Downward-Sloping Yield
Curve".
Figure 16.7 Flat Yield CurveU.S. Department of the Treasury, “Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates,”
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/
TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2007 (accessed May 23, 2012).
Figure 16.8 Downward-Sloping Yield CurveU.S. Department of the Treasury, “Daily Treasury Yield Curve
Rates,” http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/
TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2007 (accessed May 23, 2012).
A flat yield curve indicates that future interest rates are expected to be about the
same as current interest rates or that capital will be about as productive in the
economy as it is now. A downward-sloping yield curve shows that future interest
rates are expected to be lower than current rates. This is often interpreted as a
signal of a recession, because capital would be less productive in the future if the
economy were less productive then.
The yield curve is not perfectly smooth; it changes every day as bonds trade and
new prices and new yields are established in the bond markets. It is a widely used
indicator of interest rate trends, however. It can be useful to you to know the broad
trends in interest rates that the market sees.
For your bond investments, an upward-sloping yield curve indicates that interest
rates will go up, which means that bond yields will go up but bond prices will go
down. If you are planning to sell your bond in that period of rising interest rates,
you may be selling your bond at a loss.
Because of their known coupon and face value, many investors use bonds to invest
funds for a specific purpose. For example, suppose you have a child who is eight
years old and you want her to be able to go to college in ten years. You might invest
in bonds that have ten years until maturity. However, if you invest in bonds that
have twenty years until maturity, they will have a higher yield (all else being equal),
so you could invest less now.
You could buy the twenty-year bonds but plan to sell them before maturity for a
price determined by what interest rates are in ten years (when you sell them). If the
yield curve indicates that interest rates will rise over the next ten years, then you
could expect your bond price to fall, and you would have a loss when you sell the
bond, which would take away from your returns.
In general, rising interest rates mean losses for bondholders who sell before
maturity, and falling interest rates mean gains for bondholders who sell before
maturity. Unless you are planning to hold bonds until maturity, the yield curve can
give you a sense of whether you are more likely to have a gain or loss.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Bonds provide more secure income for an investment portfolio, while stocks
provide more growth potential. When you include bonds in your portfolio, you do
so to have more income and less risk than you would have with just stocks. Bonds
also diversify the portfolio. Because debt is so fundamentally different from equity,
debt markets and equity markets respond differently to changing economic
conditions.
Diversification Strategies
If your main strategic goal of including bonds is diversification, you can choose an
active or passive bond selection strategy. As with equities, an active strategy
requires individual bond selection, while a passive strategy involves the use of
indexing, or investing through a broadly diversified bond index fund or mutual
fund in which bonds have already been selected.
The advantage of the passive strategy is its greater diversification and relatively
low cost. The advantage of an active strategy is the chance to create gains by
finding and taking advantage of market mispricings. An active strategy is difficult
for individual investors in bonds, however, because the bond market is less
transparent and less liquid than the stock market.
If your main strategic goal of including bonds is to lower the risk of your portfolio,
you should keep in mind that bond risk varies. U.S. Treasuries have the least default
risk, while U.S. and foreign corporate bonds have the most. Bond ratings can help
38. A difference between two you to compare default risks.
interest rates, quoted in basis
points. The most commonly
noted spreads are those Another way to look at the effect of default risk on bond prices is to look at spreads.
between Treasury and A spread38 is the difference between one rate and another. With bonds, the spread
corporate securities of the generally refers to the difference between one yield to maturity and another.
same maturity.
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Chapter 16 Owning Bonds
Spreads are measured and quoted in basis points. A basis point39 is one one-
hundredth of one percent, or 0.0001 or 0.01 percent.
The most commonly quoted spread is the difference between the yield to maturity
for a Treasury bond and a corporate bond with the same term to maturity. Treasury
bonds are considered to have no default risk because it is unlikely that the U.S.
government will default. Treasuries are exposed to reinvestment, interest rate, and
inflation risks, however.
Corporate bonds are exposed to all four types of risk. So the difference between a
twenty-year corporate bond and a twenty-year Treasury bond is the difference
between a bond with and without default risk. The difference between their
yields—the spread—is the additional yield for the investor for taking on default risk.
The riskier the corporate bond is, the greater the spread will be.
Spreads generally fluctuate with market trends and with confidence in the economy
or expectations of economic cycles. When spreads narrow, the yields on corporate
bonds are closer to the yields on Treasuries, indicating that there is less concern
with default risk. When spreads widen—as they did in the summer and fall of 2008,
when the debt markets seemed suddenly very risky—corporate bondholders worry
more about default risk.
As the spread widens, corporate yields rise and/or Treasury yields fall. This means
that corporate bond prices (market values) are falling and/or Treasury bond values
are rising. This is sometimes referred to as the “flight to quality.” In uncertain
times, investors would rather invest in Treasuries than corporate bonds, because of
the increased default risk of corporate bonds. As a result, Treasury prices rise (and
yields fall) and corporate prices fall (and yields rise).
Longer-term bonds are more exposed to reinvestment, interest rate, and inflation
risk than shorter-term bonds. If you are using bonds to achieve diversification, you
want to be sure to be diversified among bond maturities. For example, you would
want to have some bonds that are short-term (less than one year until maturity),
intermediate-term (two to ten years until maturity), and long-term (more than ten
years until maturity) in addition to diversifying on the basis of industries and
company and perhaps even countries.
39. A unit of measure that is one
one-hundredth of a percentage
point, or 0.01 percent. Matching Strategies
40. Strategies used to create a
bond portfolio that will finance Matching strategies40 are used to create a bond portfolio that will finance specific
specific funding or liquidity
funding needs, such as education, a down payment on a second home, or
needs at specific times.
retirement. If the timing and cash flow amounts of these needs can be predicted,
then a matching strategy can be used to support them. This strategy involves
matching a “liability” (to yourself, because you “owe” yourself the chance to reach
that goal) with an asset, a bond investment. The two most commonly used matching
strategies are immunization and cash flow matching.
Recall that as interest rates rise, bond values decrease, but reinvested income from
bond coupons earns more. As interest rates fall, bond values increase, but
reinvested income from bond coupons decreases. Immunization is the idea of
choosing a portfolio of bonds such that the exposure to interest rate risk is exactly
offset by the exposure to reinvestment risk for a certain period of time, thus
guaranteeing a minimum return over that period.John L. Maginn, Donald L. Tuttle,
Jerald E. Pinto, and Dennis W. McLeavey, eds., Managing Investment Portfolios: A
Dynamic Process, 3rd ed. (Charlottesville, VA: CFA Institute, 2007).
In other words, the interest rate risk and the reinvestment risk cancel each other
out, and the investor is left with a guaranteed return. You would use this kind of
strategy when you had a liquidity need with a deadline, for example, to fund a
child’s higher education.
If you had the $50,000 now, you could just stuff it under your mattress or save it in a
savings account. But buying a bond has two advantages: (1) you may be able to buy
41. A bond portfolio strategy the bond for less than $50,000 now, requiring less upfront investment and (2) over
designed to “immunize” or
the next twenty years, the bond will also pay coupons at a higher rate than you
protect the portfolio from
interest rate risk. could earn with a savings account or under your mattress.
of regular cash flows, it is called bond laddering43. You invest in bonds of different
maturities, such that you would have one bond maturing and providing cash flow in
each period (like the CD laddering discussed in Chapter 7 "Financial Management").
Strategies such as immunization and cash flow matching are designed to manage
interest rate and reinvestment risk to minimize their effects on your portfolio’s
goals. Since you are pursuing an active strategy by selecting individual bonds, you
must also consider transaction costs and the tax consequences of your gain (or loss)
at maturity and their effects on your target cash flows.
Bonds most commonly are used to reduce portfolio risk. Typically, as your risk
tolerance decreases with age, you will include more bonds in your portfolio, shifting
its weight from stocks—with more growth potential—to bonds, with more income
and less risk. This change in the weighting of portfolio assets usually begins as you
get closer to retirement.
For years, the conventional wisdom was that you should have the same percentage
of your portfolio invested in bonds as your age, so that when you are thirty, you
have 30 percent of your portfolio in bonds; when you are fifty, you have 50 percent
of your portfolio in bonds, and so on. That wisdom is being questioned now,
however, because while bonds are lower risk, they also lower growth potential.
Today, since more people can expect to live much longer past retirement age, they
run a real risk of outliving their funds if they invest as conservatively as the
conventional wisdom suggests.
It is still true nevertheless that for most people, risk tolerance changes with age,
and your investment in bonds should reflect that change.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ immunization,
◦ cash flow matching,
◦ bond laddering.
• Life cycle investing considers the relationship of age and risk tolerance
to the strategic use of bonds in a portfolio.
EXERCISES
Introduction
When people think of investing, they tend to think of stocks and bonds, investing in
companies that create productivity, employment, and profit. Investments in stocks
and bonds are ways of sharing in that profit and ultimately in economic growth.
While companies are the engines of economic growth, other assets such as real
estate and commodities—natural resources or raw materials—fuel those engines.
Increased market transparency and access, largely through the technologies of the
Internet and global communications, have made it possible for more investors to
invest in the “fuels” as well as the “engines” of commerce. Real estate and
commodities investing have become increasingly popular as diversifiers for a sound
investment portfolio.
Mutual funds are not another kind of asset but another way of investing in any kind
of asset. The fund is a pool capable of much greater diversification than an
individual’s investment portfolio, given transaction costs. A mutual fund can also
provide security selection, expertise, liquidity, and convenience. Some funds are
even designed to perform the asset allocation task for the investor. Mutual funds
are fast becoming the dominant investment vehicle for individual investors,
changing the role of the broker and financial advisor.
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Chapter 17 Investing in Mutual Funds, Commodities, Real Estate, and Collectibles
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
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Chapter 17 Investing in Mutual Funds, Commodities, Real Estate, and Collectibles
A mutual fund provides an investor with cheaper and simpler diversification and
security selection, requiring only one transaction to own a diversified portfolio (the
mutual fund). By buying shares in the fund rather than individual securities, you
achieve extensive diversification for a much lower transaction cost than by
investing in individual securities and making individual transactions. You also
receive the benefit of professional security selection, which theoretically minimizes
the opportunity costs of lesser choices. So by using a mutual fund, you get more and
better security selection and diversification.
A mutual fund also provides stock and bond issuers with a mass market. Rather
than selling shares to investors individually (and incurring the costs of doing so),
issuers can more easily find a market for their shares in mutual funds.
Like stocks and bonds, mutual funds may be actively or passively managed. As you
read in Chapter 15 "Owning Stocks" and Chapter 16 "Owning Bonds", actively
managed funds provide investors with professional management and the expected
research, analysis, and watchfulness that goes with it. Passively managed index
funds1, on the other hand, are designed to mirror the performance of a specific
index constructed to be representative of an asset class. Recall, for example, that
the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index is designed to mirror the performance of the
five hundred largest large cap stocks in the United States.
1. Closed-end funds
1. A mutual fund designed to 2. Open-end funds
track the performance of an 3. Exchange-traded funds
index for investors who seek
diversification without having
to select securities.
Closed-end funds2 are funds for which a limited number of shares are issued. Once
2. A mutual fund that issues a all shares have been issued, the fund is “closed” so a new investor can only buy
limited number of shares, so shares from an existing investor. Since the shares are traded on an exchange, the
that existing shares must be
sold to new investors.
limited supply of shares and the demand for them in that market directly
determines the value of the shares for a closed-end fund.
Most mutual funds are open-end funds3 in which investors buy shares directly
from the fund and redeem or sell shares back to the fund. The price of a share is its
net asset value (NAV)4, or the market value of each share as determined by the
fund’s assets and liabilities and the number of shares that exist. Here is the basic
formula for calculating NAV:
Demand for shares is reflected in the number of shares outstanding, because the
fund can create new shares for new investors. NAV calculations are usually done
once per day at the close of trading, when mutual fund transactions are recorded.
The NAV is the price that the fund will pay you when you redeem your shares, so it
is a gauge of the shares’ value. It will increase if the market value of the securities in
the fund increases faster than the number of new shares.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs)5 are structured like closed-end funds but are traded
like stocks. Shares are traded and priced continuously throughout the day’s trading
session, rather than once per day at the end of trading. ETFs trade more like
individual securities; that is, if you are trying to time a market, they are a more
nimble asset to trade than open-end or closed-end funds.
Originally designed as index funds, exchange-traded funds now target just about
every asset, sector, and economic region imaginable. Because of this, ETFs have
3. A mutual fund in which shares become quite popular, with over $529 billion invested in over seven hundred funds
are bought from and sold to (as of April 2009).The Investment Company Institute, 2009 Investment Company Fact
the fund management; the
number of shares is not
Book, 49th ed., 2009, http://www.ici.org/pdf/2009_factbook.pdf (accessed June 15,
limited. 2009). Figure 17.2 "Fund Features" compares the features of closed-end funds, open-
end funds, and ETFs.
4. When used regarding open-end
mutual funds, NAV refers to
the redeemable value of each
fund share at that time, given
the market value of the fund’s
assets and the number of
shares outstanding.
Shares of closed-end funds and exchange-traded funds are bought and sold on
exchanges, much like shares of stock. You would go through a broker to make those
transactions. Shares of open-end funds may be bought and sold directly from the
fund sponsor, a mutual fund company or investment manager such as Fidelity,
Vanguard, Janus, T. Rowe Price, or Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association-
College Retirement Equities Fund (TIAA-CREF). You can make those transactions at
any of the company’s offices, by telephone, or online. About 40 percent of all mutual
fund transactions are done directly (without a broker) through a retirement plan
contribution or a mutual fund company.The Investment Company Institute, 2009
Investment Company Fact Book, 49th ed., 2009, http://www.ici.org/pdf/
2009_factbook.pdf (accessed June 15, 2009).
Some other types of mutual funds are shown in Table 17.1 "Other Types of Mutual
Funds". Some research companies, such as Morningstar, track as many as forty-
eight different categories of mutual funds.
Mutual funds that own shares in other mutual funds rather than in specific
Funds of
securities. If you decide to use mutual funds rather than select securities, a
funds6
fund of funds will provide expertise in choosing funds.
Funds of stocks and bonds that manage portfolio risk based on age or the time
horizon for liquidity needs. Lifestyle funds perform both security selection
and asset allocation for investors, determined by the target date. For example,
6. A mutual fund that invests in Lifestyle if you were now thirty years old, you might choose a lifestyle fund with a
shares of other mutual funds funds7 target date of thirty-five years from now for your retirement savings. As the
rather than in specific securties.
fund approaches its target date, its allocation of investments in stocks and
7. A mutual fund designed to bonds will shift to carry less risk as the target nears. Lifestyle funds are used
perform asset allocation and primarily in saving for retirement; many are created as funds of funds.
security selection for the investor.
Assets are reallocated based on the
firm’s expected liquidity target
date.
Funds that invest both investors’ money and money that the fund borrows to
Leveraged
augment the investable assets and thus potential returns. Because they use
funds8
borrowing, leveraged funds are riskier than funds that do not use leverage.
All funds must disclose their fees to potential investors: sales fees, management
fees, and expenses. A load fund10 charges a sales commission on each share
8. A mutual fund that invests purchase. That sales charge (also called a front-end load11) is a percentage of the
borrowed funds as well as purchase price. A no-load fund12, in contrast, does not charge a sales commission,
investors’ funds.
because shares may be purchased directly from the fund or through a discount
9. A mutual fund that aims to broker. The front-end load can be as much as 8.5 percent, so if you plan to invest
increase in value when the market
declines, in contrast to an index often or in large amounts, that can be a substantial charge. For example, a $5,000
fund, which aim to increase in investment may cost you $425, reducing the amount you have to invest and earn a
value when the market rises.
return.
10. A mutual fund that charges a
sales commission or fee upon
investment or purchase of A fund may charge a back-end load13, actually a deferred sales charge, paid when
shares; the load is stated as a you sell your shares instead of when you buy them. The charge may be phased out if
percentage of invested funds.
you own the shares for a specified length of time, however, usually five to seven
11. The sales charge for mutual years.
fund shares, quoted as a
percentage of the funds
invested; it cannot be more A fund may charge a management fee on an annual basis. The management fee is
than 8.5 percent of investment.
stated as a fixed percentage of the fund’s asset value per share. Management fees
12. A mutual fund that does not can range from 0.1 percent to 2.0 percent annually. Typically, a more actively
charge a sales commission or managed fund can be expected to charge a higher management fee, while a
fee upon investment or
passively managed fund such as an index fund should charge a minimal
purchase of shares.
management fee.
13. A deferred sales charge or sales
fee charged when shares are
redeemed. A fund may charge an annual 12b-1 fee14 or distribution fee, also calculated as not
14. An annual management fee
more than 1.0 percent per year of the fund’s asset value. Some mutual funds charge
charged to mutual fund other extra fees as well, passing on fund expenses to shareholders. You should
shareholders and calculated as consider fee structure and rate when choosing mutual funds, and this can be done
a percentage of the assets through calculations of the expense ratio.
under management.
of your total investment. The expense ratio averages around 0.99 percent for all
mutual funds, but it may be more than 2 percent of your investment’s value.The
Investment Company Institute, 2009 Investment Company Fact Book, 49th ed., 2009,
http://www.ici.org/pdf/2009_factbook.pdf (accessed June 15, 2009). That may not
sound like much, but it means that if the fund earns a 5 percent return, your net
return may be less than 3 percent (and after taxes, it’s even less). When choosing a
fund, you should be aware of all charges—especially annual or ongoing
charges—that can affect your investment return.
Say you invest in a load fund with a 5 percent front-end load and an expense ratio
of 2.25 percent and suppose the fund earns a 5 percent return. Figure 17.3 "Mutual
Fund Example" shows how your $5,000 investment would look after one year.
Expenses can be a significant determinant of your net return, and since expenses
vary by fund, fund strategy (active or passive), and fund sponsor, you should shop
around and understand what your costs of investing will be.
Owning shares of a mutual fund means owning shares in a pool of assets. The
16. Mutual fund returns from any returns of the fund are the returns of those assets: interest, dividends, or gains
interest payments on the (losses). Income may come from interest distributions16 if the fund invests in
mutual fund holdings, such as
bonds or interest-producing assets or as dividend distributions17 if the fund
bonds
invests in stocks.
17. Mutual fund returns from any
dividends distributed by
mutual fund equity holdings.
Mutual funds buy and sell or “turn over” the fund assets. Even passively managed
funds need to rebalance to keep pace with their benchmarks as market values
change. The turnover ratio18 is the percentage of fund assets that have been
turned over or replaced in the past year, a measure of the fund’s trading activity.
Turnover can create capital gains or losses. Periodically, usually once per year, the
fund’s net capital gains (or losses) are distributed on a per share basis as a capital
gains distribution19. You would expect turnover to produce more gains than
losses. The more turnover, or the higher the turnover ratio, the greater the capital
gains distributions you may expect.
Or suppose you are looking for a bond fund to create income and security. You find
a fund called the “Investment Grade Fixed Income Fund.” On closer inspection,
however, you find that the fund does not invest only in investment grade bonds but
that the average rating of its bonds is investment grade. This means that the fund
invests in many investment grade bonds but also in some speculative grade bonds
to achieve higher income. While this fund may suit your need for income, it may
not be appropriate for your risk tolerance.
Mutual fund companies make this information readily available on Web sites and in
prospectuses. You should always make the extra effort to be sure you know what’s
in your fund. In addition, mutual funds are widely followed by many performance
analysts. Ratings agencies such as Morningstar and investment publications such as
Barron’s and Forbes track, analyze, and report the performance of mutual funds.
That information is available online or in print and provides comparisons of mutual
funds that you may find helpful in choosing your fund.
In print and online newspapers, mutual fund performance is reported daily in the
form of tables that compare the average returns of funds from week to week.
Reported average returns are based on the net asset value per share (NAVPS).
Investors can use this information to choose or compare funds and track the
performance of funds they own.
In conclusion, since a mutual fund may be made up of any kind or many kinds of
securities (e.g., stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities), it is not really another
kind of investment. Rather, it is a way to invest without specifically selecting
securities, a way of achieving a desired asset allocation without choosing individual
assets.
The advantages of investing in a mutual fund are the diversification available with
minimal transaction costs and the professional management or security selection
that you buy when you buy into the fund.
Performance history has shown that actively managed funds, on average, do not
necessarily outperform passively managed funds.Burton G. Malkiel, A Random Walk
Down Wall Street (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2007), 360. Since they
usually have higher fees, any advantage created by active management is usually
canceled out by their higher costs. Still, there are investors who believe that some
mutual funds and mutual fund managers can, on average, outperform the markets
or the indexes that provide the benchmarks for passively managed funds.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ diversification,
◦ security selection,
◦ asset allocation.
• Funds may be actively or passively managed.
• Index funds mirror an index of securities, providing diversification
without security selection.
• Funds of funds provide the investor with preselected funds.
◦ closed-end funds,
◦ open-end funds,
◦ exchange-traded funds.
• Fees vary by
◦ fund sponsor,
◦ fund strategy (active or passive),
◦ fund sales (direct or through a broker).
◦ interest distributions,
◦ dividend distributions,
◦ capital gains distributions.
• A fund prospectus details the fund’s investment holdings, historic
returns, and costs. Mutual fund ratings in the financial media are
another source of information.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
When you buy a home, even with a mortgage, you are making a direct
investment21, because you are both the investor and the owner who holds legal
title to the property. For most people, a home is the single largest investment they
ever make.
As an investor, you may want to include other real estate holdings in your portfolio,
most likely as an indirect investment22 in which you invest in an entity that owns
and manages real estate. Studies have shown that real estate is a good diversifier
for financial investments such as stocks and bonds.Jack Clark Francis and Roger G.
Ibbotson, Contrasting Real Estate with Comparable Investments, 1978–2004 (Ibbotson
Associates, 2007), http://corporate.morningstar.com/ib/asp/
detail.aspx?xmlfile=1409.xml (accessed June 24, 2009).
Direct Investments
Sonia is looking to buy her first home. After graduating from college, she decided to
stay on because she liked the town and found a job as an elementary school teacher.
She loves her job, but her income is limited. She finds a nice, two-family house in a
neighborhood close to the college. It needs some work, but she figures she can use
the summer months to fix it up—she’s pretty handy—and renting to students won’t
be a problem. The tenants will pay their own utilities. Sonia figures that the rental
income will help pay her mortgage, insurance, and taxes, and that after the
mortgage is paid off, it will provide a nice extra income.
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Chapter 17 Investing in Mutual Funds, Commodities, Real Estate, and Collectibles
To qualify as a REIT in the United States (for the allowable tax benefits), a fund must
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ a syndicate,
◦ a limited partnership,
◦ a real estate investment trust (REIT).
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Some investors prefer to invest directly in the materials that are critical to an
industry or market, rather than investing in the companies that use them. For
example, if you think that the price of oil is going to rise, one way to profit from the
higher price would be to buy shares of oil companies that profit by refining oil and
selling gasoline, fuels, and other petroleum products. Another way is to buy the oil
itself as a commodity.
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Chapter 17 Investing in Mutual Funds, Commodities, Real Estate, and Collectibles
In the language of commodities trading, the customer is “short” oil, that is, needs it
and seeks to lock in a price through the prebuy deal. The oil dealer is “long” oil,
that is, has a supply and wants to sell it and so seeks to lock in the sale of a certain
quantity at a certain price. The customer wants to lock in a low price, while the
dealer wants to lock in a high price. Each is betting on what will be “low” and
“high” relative to what the real price of oil turns out to be in the future. The hedge
of the prebuy deal relieves both the customer and the dealer of the uncertainty or
risk. The deal creates its own risks, but if those are smaller than the risk of oil’s
price volatility, then the dealer will offer the prebuy, and the customer will take it.
When you trade commodities, you are also exposed to the risks of trading in the
commodities markets. Another reason that commodities investing is risky for
individual investors is because professional commodity investors often take
speculative positions, betting on the future price of derivatives without holding
investments in the underlying assets. Speculators can influence that future price,
which after all is just the market’s consensus of what that price “should” be. For
individual investors, the risks of commodities trading often outweigh the advantage
of whatever diversification they bring to the portfolio.
Historically, gold and silver have been popular investments of individual investors.
For thousands of years, gold and silver have been used as a basis for currency value,
either minted into coins or used to back currency value. When a currency is backed
by gold, for example, or is “on the gold standard,” there should be a direct
relationship between the value of the currency and the value of the gold.
Most currencies used today are not backed by a precious metal but by the
productivity and soundness of the economy that issues them. For example, the
value of the U.S. dollar is not related to the value of an ounce of gold, but to the
value of the U.S. economy.
As with stocks, bonds, and real estate, the most popular way for individual investors
to invest in any commodities—including precious metals—is through open-end
mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETF). The fund may invest in a variety of
contracts, diversifying its holdings of the commodity. It has professional managers
who understand the pricing of such contracts and can research the market
volatility and the global economy. Using a fund as a way of investing in
commodities thus provides both diversification and expertise. It can also give you
more liquidity as fund shares can be quickly traded into the market.
For example, if you expect inflation and want to buy gold, instead of trying to buy
gold bars, you could invest in a fund (iShares), an exchange-traded fund (Comex
Gold), or mutual funds (Fidelity Select Gold or Vanguard Precious Metals). These
funds allow you to “own” gold but also to get diversification, expertise, and
liquidity, reducing your risk.
There are mutual funds or exchange-traded funds for nearly every commodity that
is traded. There are also passively managed commodity index funds, similar to stock
or bond index funds. Investing in commodities can be a way to achieve asset
diversification in your portfolio, because often a commodity such as gold is
countercyclical to the economy, and therefore is countercyclical to your stock and
bond holdings as well. Commodities may also add significant risk to a portfolio,
however, so the advantage of adding them as a diversification strategy may be
canceled out by the additional risk.
Any asset that is tradable may become an investment; that is, it may be purchased
and held with the expectation that it can be sold when its value increases. So long
as there is a market for it—a buyer—it potentially may be sold at a gain.
• Antique furniture
• Stamps
• Coins
• Rare books
• Sports trading cards
• Vintage cars
• Vintage clothes
• Vintage wines
• Vintage vinyl
• Fine art
• Musical instruments
• Jewelry
• Historical curios
• Other ephemera
Professional appraisers are knowledgeable about both the item and the market and
are trained to evaluate such assets. Theirs is a better-educated guess, but it is still
just an estimate of value. Individual investors also consult books on collectibles and
may purchase professional market research, pricing indexes, and auction records.
Sometimes one person’s trash is another person’s treasure. It is fun to think that
you may unearth a rare “find” at a garage sale or flea market or that some family
heirloom has more than sentimental value. Usually, however, your ability to cash in
on your luck is limited by your ability to convince someone else of its worth and to
sell when its market is trendy.
buyer and seller. The dealers may establish a gallery to showcase items for sale.
Auction houses such as Christie’s or Sotheby’s organize auctions of many items or
“lots” to attract buyers and provide catalogues with details on the items for sale,
such as their “provenance” or ownership history.
The advantage of unique assets as investments is that you may enjoy collecting and
having the items as well as watching their value appreciate. If you are a guitarist,
for example, having and being able to play a vintage guitar may mean more to you
than the fact that it may be a good investment. For some, collecting becomes a
hobby.
Unless you are knowledgeable about your item and its markets (and even if you
are), it is common to suffer from mispricing. Collectibles’ markets are relatively
inefficient because trading partners vary widely in their knowledge about pricing.
Both buyers and sellers try to persuade each other of an asset’s rarity and value. It
is easy to be misled and to make mistakes in this market. Online sales and auctions
of collectibles at sites such as eBay may be fun for hobbyists, but they typically are
not good venues for investors.
If you are trading through a dealer, you can check the dealer’s reputation through
professional organizations, local business bureaus, and Internet blogs and Web
sites, especially where customers can provide a rating or critique. You should also
always try to find comparable items to compare prices. If feasible, get a second
opinion from an independent appraiser. Knowledge is an important bargaining
chip. The more you know, the more likely you are to be satisfied with your
investment decision, even if you ultimately walk away from the deal.
Collectibles can be a source of joy and a store of wealth, and you may realize a
healthy return on your investment. In the meantime, however, they create costs so
that your eventual return will have to be large enough to compensate for those
costs to make them a really worthwhile investment.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
EXERCISES
Introduction
Although she is starting out as a lab technician, Tomika is not clear about her career
ambitions. She wants to do something fun and interesting, where she won’t hate
going to work every day—but mostly she wants a career that will afford her the
opportunity for professional advancement, increasing pay, and the chance to raise a
family. She has enjoyed her science courses at school. She figures that since health
care is a growth industry, with technological advancements and the aging
population, she will choose a career in health.
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Chapter 18 Career Planning
yourself. Those abilities will be called on throughout your working life. You will
make job and career choices for many different reasons. This chapter looks only at
the financial context of those choices.
537
Chapter 18 Career Planning
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
A person starting out in the world of work today can expect to change careers—not
just jobs—an average of seven times before retiring.U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, “National Longitudinal Survey of Youth,”
http://www.bls.gov/nls/nlsy79r19sup1.pdf (accessed July 23, 2009). Those career
changes may reflect the process of gaining knowledge and skills as you work or
changes in industry and economic conditions over several decades of your working
life. Knowing this, you cannot base career decisions solely on the circumstances of
the moment. However, you also cannot ignore the economics of the job market.
You may have a career in mind but have no idea how to get started, or you may
have a job in mind but have no idea where it may lead. If you have a career in mind,
you should research its career path1, or sequence of steps that will enable you to
advance. Some careers have a well-established career path—for example, careers in
law, medicine, teaching, or civil engineering. In other occupations and professions,
career paths may not be well defined.
Before you can even focus on a career or a job, however, you need to identify the
factors that will affect your decision making process.
The job market is the market where buyers (employers) and sellers (employees) of
labor trade, but it usually refers to the possibilities for employment and its rewards.
These will differ by field of employment, types of jobs, and geographic region. The
opportunities offered in a job market depend on the supply and demand for jobs,
which in turn depend on the need for labor in the broader economy and in a
1. A planned progression of jobs
or steps to advance in a specific industry or geographic area.
profession or career.
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Chapter 18 Career Planning
The economic cycle can affect the aggregate job market or employment rate. If the
economy is in a recession, the economy is producing less, and there is less need for
labor, so fewer jobs are available. If the economy is expanding, production and its
need for labor are growing.
For example, it would have been a bad time in the spring of 2009 to think about a
career in auto manufacturing in the United States with Ford, General Motors, and
Chrysler all announcing massive layoffs, plant closings, and facing bankruptcy. The
industry may survive, but it probably won’t be able to rebuild that fast.
Social and cultural factors affect consumer behavior, Library of Congress, February
and consumer preferences can change a job market. 1937
Demand for certain kinds of products and services, for
example, such as organic foods, hybrid cars, clean
energy, and “green” buildings, can increase job
opportunities in businesses that address those preferences.
Thus, changes in demand for a product or service will change the need for labor to
produce it. On a larger scale, economies typically shift their focus over time as
different industries become “growth” industries, that is, the drivers of growth in
the economy. In the mid-twentieth century, the United States was a manufacturing
economy, driven by the production of durable and consumer goods, especially
automobiles. In the 1990s, the computer/internet/tech sector had a larger role in
driving growth in the U.S. economy due to technological breakthroughs. Currently,
education and health care services are the growing sectors of the economy due to
demographic and political changes and needs.U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, “Industries with the Fastest Growing and Most Rapidly Declining
Wage and Salary Employment, 2006–16,” in “Industry Output and Employment
Projections to 2016,” Monthly Labor Review, November 2007, http://www.bls.gov/
emp/empfastestind.htm (accessed August 5, 2009).
The labor market is competitive, not just at an individual level but on a global,
industrywide scale. As transportation and especially communication technology has
improved, many steps in a manufacturing or even a service process may be
outsourced, done by foreign labor. That competition affects the U.S. job market as
jobs are moved overseas, but it also opens new markets in developing economies.
You may be interested in an overseas job, as American companies open offices in
Asian, South American, African, and other countries. Globalization affects job
markets everywhere.
Whether you are employed or self-employed, whether you look forward to going to
work every day or dread it, employment determines how you spend most of your
waking hours during most of your days. Employment determines your income and
thus your lifestyle, your physical well-being, and to a large extent your satisfaction
or emotional well-being. Everyone has a different idea about what a “good job” is.
That idea may change over a lifetime as circumstances change, but some specific
micro factors will weigh on your decisions, including your
• abilities,
• skills,
• knowledge,
• lifestyle choices.
Abilities are innate talents or aptitudes, what you are capable of or good at.
Circumstances may inhibit your use of your abilities or may even cause disabilities.
However, you often can develop your abilities—and compensate for
disabilities—through training or practice. Sometimes you don’t even know what
abilities you have until some experience brings them out.
When Tomika says she is “good with people” or when Bryon says that he is a
“natural athlete,” they are referring to abilities that will make them better at some
jobs than others. Abilities can be developed and may require upkeep; athletic
ability, for example, requires regular fitness workouts to really be maintained. You
also may find that you lack some abilities, or think you do because you’ve never
tried using them.
Usually, by the time you graduate from high school, you are aware of some of your
abilities, although you may not be aware of how they may help or hinder you in
different jobs. Also, your idea of your abilities relative to others may be skewed by
your context. For example, you may be the best writer in your high school, but not
compared to a larger pool of more competitive students. Your high school or
college career office may be able to help you identify your abilities and skills and
applying that knowledge to your career decisions.
Your job choices are not predetermined by your abilities or apparent lack of them.
An ability can be developed or used in a way you have not yet imagined. A lack of
ability can sometimes be overcome by using other talents to compensate. Thus,
ability is a factor in your job decisions, but certainly not the only one. Your
knowledge and skills are equally—if not more—important.
Skills and knowledge are learned attributes. A skill is a process that you learn to
apply, such as programming a computer, welding a pipe, or making a customer feel
comfortable making a purchase. Knowledge refers to your education and
experience and your understanding of the contexts in which your skills may be
applied.
Past high school or a year or two of community college, it is natural to question the
value of more education. Tuition is real money and must be earned or borrowed,
both of which have costs. There is also the opportunity cost of the wages you could
be earning instead.
Education adds to your earning power significantly, however, by raising the price of
your labor. The more education you have, the more knowledge and skills you have.
The smaller the supply of labor with your particular knowledge and skills, the
higher the price your labor can command. This relationship is the rationale for
becoming specialized within a career. However, both specialization and versatility
may have value in certain job markets, raising the price of your labor.
More education also confers more job mobility—the ability to change jobs when
opportunities arise, because your knowledge and skills make you more useful, and
thus valuable, in more ways. Your value as a worker or employee enables you to
command higher pay for your labor.
Not only are you likely to earn more if you are better educated, but you are also
more likely to have a job with a pension plan, health insurance, and paid
vacations—benefits that add to your total compensation. Although it may seem
quite expensive to you now, your college education is definitely worth it: worth the
opportunity cost and worth the direct costs of tuition, fees, and books.Sandy Baum
and Jennifer Ma, Education Pays: The Benefits of Higher Education for Individuals and
Society (Princeton, NJ: The College Board, 2007).
Your choices will depend on the characteristics and demands of a job and how they
fit your unique constellation of knowledge, skills, personality, characteristics, and
aptitudes. For example, your knowledge of finance, visual pursuit skills, ability to
manage stress and tolerate risk, aptitude for numerical reasoning, enjoyment of
competition, and preference to work independently may suit you for employment
as a stockbroker or futures trader. Your manual speed and accuracy, verbal
comprehension skills, enjoyment of detail work, strong sense of responsibility,
desire to work regular hours in a small group setting, and preference for public
service may suit you for training as a court stenographer. Your word fluency, social
skills, communication skills, organizational skills, preference to work with people,
and desire to lead others may suit you for jobs in education or sales. And so on.
As you advance in your career, and perhaps become more settled in your
life—maybe start a family—you are less willing to sacrifice your personal life to your
career, and may seek out a job that allows you to earn the income that supports
your dependents while not taking away too much of your time.
Your income needs typically increase as you have dependents and are trying to save
and accumulate wealth, and then decrease when your dependents are on their own
and you have accumulated some wealth. Your sources of income shift as well, from
relying on income from labor earlier in your life to relying on income from
investments later.
When your family has grown and you once again have fewer dependents, you may
really enjoy fulfilling your ambitions, as you have decades of skills and knowledge
to apply and the time to apply them. Increasingly, as more people retain their
health into older age, they are working in retirement—earning a wage to improve
their quality of life or eliminate debt, turning a hobby into a business, or trying
something they have always wanted to do. Your life cycle of career development
may follow the pattern shown in Figure 18.4 "Lifecycle Career Development".
Regardless of age, your lifestyle choices will affect your job opportunities and
career choices. For example, you may choose to live in a specific geographic region
based on its
Sometimes you may choose to sacrifice your lifestyle preferences for your
ambitions, and sometimes you may sacrifice your ambitions for your preferences.
It’s really a matter of figuring out what matters at the time, while keeping in mind
the effect of this decision on the next one.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ economic cycles,
◦ new technology or obsolescence,
◦ demographic changes,
◦ changes in the global economy,
◦ changes in consumer preferences,
◦ changes in laws and regulations.
• Job markets are globally competitive.
◦ abilities or aptitudes,
◦ skills and knowledge,
◦ lifestyle choices.
• Microeconomic factors and income needs change over a lifetime and
typically correlate with age and stage of life.
• Job and career choices should realistically reflect income needs.
EXERCISES
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Before you can look for a job, you need to have an idea of what job market you are
in. The same macro factors that you consider in your choice of career may make
your job search easier or harder. Ultimately, they may influence your methods of
searching or even your job choice itself. For example, as unemployment has
increased in the wake of the most recent financial crisis, the labor market has
become much more competitive. In turn, job seekers have become much more
creative about advertising their skills—from broader networking to papering a
neighborhood with brochures on windshields—and more accepting of job
conditions, including lower compensation. A good place to start is the U.S.
Department of Labor’s “Occupational Outlook Handbook.”See, for example, U.S.
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/oco, and
“Tomorrow’s Jobs,” http://www.bls.gov/oco/print/oco2003.htm (accessed July 20,
2009). The handbook is updated annually. For hundreds of industries and specific
jobs it tells you the training and education you need, what you will earn and what
your job prospects are, what the work entails, and what the working conditions are
like. The site also offers valuable tips on conducting job searches.
Knowing the job classification and industry name will focus your search process and
make it more efficient. Once you understand your job market, look at the macro and
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micro factors that affect it along with your personal choices. For example, knowing
that you are interested in working in business, transportation, or the leisure and
hospitality industry, you are ready to research that field more and plan your job
search.
You are looking for a buyer of your labor, so you need to find the markets where
buyers shop. One of the first things to do is find out where jobs in your field are
advertised. Jobs may be advertised in
• trade magazines,
• professional organizations or their journals,
• career fairs,
• employment agencies,
• employment Web sites,
• government Web sites,
• company Web sites,
• your school’s career development office.
Figure 18.5 "Sources of Information about Jobs" describes these venues in more
detail.
Sandy’s strategy includes posting her résumé on employment web sites, such as
Monster.com, and Careerbuilder.com. Browsing jobs online, Sandy discovers there
is a strong seasonal demand for hospitality workers on cruise ships, and this gives
her an idea. If the right choice doesn’t come up right away, maybe a summer job
working for a cruise line would be a good way to develop her knowledge and skills
further while looking for her dream job in management.
Sandy needs to research destinations as well as businesses and wants to talk with
people directly. She knows that cold calls—calling potential employers on the
phone as a complete unknown—is the hardest way to sell herself. In any industry,
cold calling has a much lower success rate than calling with a referral or some
connection—otherwise known as networking.
Networking2 is one of the most successful ways of finding a job. It can take many
forms, but the idea is to use whatever professional, academic, or social connections
you have to enlist as many volunteers as possible to help in your job search.
According to popular theory, your social networks can be seen as assets that
potentially help you build wealth. That is, the number and positions of people you
can network with and the economically viable connections you can have with them
are a form of capital—social capital3.Robert Putnam, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and
Revival of American Community (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2000).
Word of mouth is a powerful tool, and the more people know about your job search,
the more likely it is that they or someone they know will learn of opportunities.
Sandy’s strategy also includes joining online career networking sites, such as
LinkedIn, and discussion lists for people in the hospitality industry. Sandy finds a
helpful Yahoo! group called The Innkeeper Club and posts a query about what
employers look for in a manager.
That’s how networking works—you just never know who may be helpful to you. The
obvious people to start with are all the people that you know: former professors,
former employers, friends, family, friends of family, friends of friends, family of
friends, and so on. The more people you can talk with or send your résumé to (i.e.,
impress), the greater the chances that someone will make an offer.
To get a job you will have to convince someone who does not know you that you are
worth paying for. You have an opportunity to prove that in your cover letter and
résumé and again in your interview.
Your first paragraph should establish your purpose in making contact, the reason
for the letter. You should make it clear what job you are applying for and why you
are making this particular contact. If someone referred you, mention him or her by
name. If you met the addressee previously, remind him or her where and when that
was, for example, “It was great to chat with you at the Jobs Fair in Cleveland last
week.” The more specifically you can identify yourself and separate yourself from
the pool of other job seekers, the better.
The second paragraph of your cover letter should summarize your background,
education, and experience. All this information is on your résumé in more detail, so
this is not the place to expound at length. You want to show briefly that you are
qualified for the position and have the potential to make a contribution.
Your third paragraph is your opportunity to leave the door open for further
communication. Make it clear where and how you can be reached and how much
you appreciate the opportunity to be considered for the position.
The résumé4, the summary list of your skills and knowledge, is what will really sell
you to an employer, once you have made a good enough impression with the cover
letter to get him or her to turn the page. A good résumé provides enough
information to show that you are willing and able to contribute to your employer’s
success—that it is worth it to hire you or at least to talk to you in an interview.
List the pertinent facts of where and how you can be reached: address, phone
number, e-mail address. Your qualifications will be mainly education and
experience. List any degrees, certificates, or training you have completed after high
school. Be sure to include anything that distinguishes your academic career, such as
honors, prizes, or scholarships.
List any employment experience, including summer jobs, even if they don’t seem
pertinent to the position you are applying for. You may think that being a camp
counselor has nothing to do with being a radiology technician, but it shows that you
have experience working with children and parents, have held a position where you
are responsible for others, and that you are willing to work during your school
breaks, thus showing ambition. If you are starting out and can’t be expected to have
lots of employment experience, employers looks for hints about your
character—things like ambition, initiative, responsibility—that may indicate your
success working for them.
Internships that you did in college or high school are also impressive, showing your
4. A document that summarizes
willingness to go beyond the standard curriculum and learn by working—something
job experience, education, and an employer will expect you to continue to do on the job, too. While you are in
civic activities. It is commonly school, you should recognize the value added by experiential learning and the
used in the job application positive impression that it will make. An internship can also give you a head start in
process.
networking if your supervisor will be a good reference or source of contacts for you.
The internship may even result in a job offer; you may not necessarily want to
accept, but at the very least, having an offer to fall back on takes some of the
pressure off your search.
For each job, be clear about the position you held and the two most important
duties or roles you performed. Don’t go into too much detail, however. The time to
expand on your story is in the interview.
If you have done internships or volunteer work or if you are a member of civic or
volunteer organizations, be sure to list those as well. They are hints about you as a
person and may help you to stand out in the pool of applicants.
A common mistake is to list too much extra information on your résumé and to
focus too much on what you want. For example, stating an objective such as “to
obtain a great position in hotel management.” Your employer cares about what you
can do for the company, not for yourself. The following are some tips for developing
your résumé:
A myriad of sample résumés and sample cover letters may be found online, but be
wary of templates that may not fit you or your prospective job. Employers in your
field may have particular expectations for what should be on your résumé or how it
should be structured. Maybe you should list your skills or perhaps your education
There are many resources available in print and online to help you write a good
résumé. In addition, résumé writing workshops and short courses are often held at
community colleges or adult education centers.Ellen Gordon Reeves, Can I Wear My
Nose Ring to the Interview? (New York: Workman Publishing, 2009).
You may be asked a series of predetermined questions, or your interviewer may let
the conversation develop through open-ended questions. The interviewer may let
you establish its direction in order to learn more about how you think. However the
conversation is guided, you want to be able to showcase your suitability for the job
and what you bring to it. Figure 18.8 "Questions Prospective Employers Commonly
Ask" identifies some questions employers commonly ask in job interviews.
Question: We are looking for someone who is willing to take initiative in keeping our
office systems working efficiently and who can work without a lot of direct
supervision. Does that describe you?
Answer: Absolutely. For example, in my last job I noticed that the office supply
system was not working well. People were running out of what they needed before
letting me know what to order (Situation). I thought there needed to be a better
way to anticipate and fill those needs based on people’s actual patterns of use
(Task). So, I conducted a poll on office supply use and used that information to
develop a schedule for the automatic resupply of key items on a regular basis
(Action). The system worked much more smoothly after that. I mentioned it in my
next performance review, and my boss was so impressed that she put me in for a
raise (Results).
Unless your interviewer mentions compensation, don’t bring it up. Once you have
the job offer, then you can discuss compensation, but in the interview you want to
focus on what you can do for the company, not what the company can do for you.
You can also use the interview to learn more about the company. Try to pick up
clues about the company’s mission, corporate culture, and work environment. Are
people wearing business attire or “business casual”? Are there cubicles and private
offices or a more open workspace? Are people working in teams, or is it more of a
conventional hierarchy? You want to be in a workplace where you can be
comfortable and productive. Be open-minded—you may be able to work quite well
in an environment you have never worked in before—but think about how you can
do your best work in that environment.
After your interview, send a thank you note, and follow up with a phone call if you
don’t hear back. You may ask your interviewer for feedback—so that you can learn
for future interviews—but don’t be surprised and be gracious, if you don’t get it.
Always leave the door open. You never know.
Accepting an Offer
A job offer should include details about the work you will be performing, the
compensation, and the opportunity to advance from there. If any of that
information is missing, you should ask about it.
In many jobs, you may be asked to do many things, especially in entry-level jobs, so
the job description may be fairly vague. Your willingness to do whatever is asked of
you (within the law and according to ethical standards) should be compensated by
what you stand to gain from the job—in pay or in new knowledge and experience or
in positioning yourself for your next job. Some jobs are better looked at as a kind of
graduate education.
Your compensation7 includes not only your wages or salary but also any benefits
that the employer provides. As you read in previous chapters, benefits may include
health and dental insurance, disability insurance, life insurance, and a retirement
plan. Compensation also includes time off, sick days, and vacation days. You should
understand the company’s policies and flexibility in applying them.
Know what your total compensation will be and whether it is reasonable for the job,
industry, and current job market. Asking around may help, especially on online
discussion groups with relative anonymity. People often are reluctant to disclose
their compensation, and companies discourage sharing this information because it
typically reveals discrepancies. For example, people hired in the past may be
7. Payment for labor, including receiving less (or more) pay than people hired recently for the same position. In
wages, salaries, commissions,
stock options, and fringe
addition, gender gap—in which men receive higher pay than women in the same
benefits such as health, position—is often a problem.
disability, and life insurance.
To gauge how reasonable a job offer is, you can research professional associations
about pay scales or find statistical averages by profession or region. Online
resources include simple salary comparison calculators, such as the one at
http://monster.salary.com. You also will find data and related articles linking
salaries to specific job titles, area codes, states, educational levels, and years of work
experience, for example, at http://www.payscale.com/research/US/
Country=United_States/Salary.
Realistically compare the job offer to your needs. Different geographic areas have
different costs of living, for example, so the same salary may afford you a very
different lifestyle in Omaha than in New York City. Your employment compensation
is most likely an important source—perhaps your only source—of income. That
income finances your plan for spending, saving, and investing. A budget can help
you to see if that income will be sufficient to meet your financial goals. If you
already have financial responsibilities—student loans, car loans, or dependents, for
example—you may find that you can’t afford the job.
You can negotiate your compensation offer; many employers expect you to try, but
some will just stand by their offer—take it or leave it. Your ability to negotiate
depends in part on the number of candidates for that particular job and how
quickly the employer needs to fill it. You will find guidelines online for evaluating
job offers and negotiating your compensation, for example, among the useful links
at http://www.rileyguide.com/offers.html. Another resource includes the simple
“Job Offer Checklist” at http://www.collegegrad.com/offer.
In some cases, your employer may offer you a contract, a legal agreement that
details your responsibilities and compensation and your employer’s responsibilities
and expectations. As with any contract, you should thoroughly understand it before
signing. If you will be employed as a member of a trade union or labor union under
a collective bargaining8 agreement, the terms of the contract may be applicable to
all union members and therefore not negotiable by individual employees.
It is exciting to get a job offer, but don’t let the excitement overwhelm your good
sense. Before you accept a job, feel positive that you can live with it. You never
really know what a job is like until you do, but it is better to go into it optimistically.
When you are just starting a career or trying one out, it is most important to be able
to learn and grow in your job, and you may have a period of “paying your dues.” But
if you are really miserable in a job, you won’t be able to learn and grow, no matter
8. The practice of union and
employer representatives how “golden” the opportunity is supposed to be.
negotiating an employment
contract to determine wages,
hours, work rules, and working
conditions.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ trade magazines,
◦ professional organizations or their journals,
◦ career fairs,
◦ employment agencies or “headhunters,”
◦ employment Web sites,
◦ company Web sites,
◦ government Web sites,
◦ your school’s career development office.
• Networking is a valuable way to expand your job search.
◦ job;
◦ compensation, including benefits;
◦ opportunities for advancement.
EXERCISES
4. How will you prepare for a job interview? Read a New York Times
interview with the CEO of Cisco Systems, John Chambers, about
corporate leadership and recruitment at
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/02/business/
02corner.html?th&emc=th. In the second half of the article, the
interviewer asks, “How do you hire?” What qualities of new
recruits to corporate management does this CEO look for? Read
the articles on interviewing at the following Careerbuilder.com
URLs:
◦ http://www.careerbuilder.com/jobposter/small-business/
article.aspx?articleid=ATL_0174INTERVIEWBLUNDERS
◦ http://www.careerbuilder.com/jobposter/small-business/
article.aspx?articleid=ATL_0089INTERVIEWSTYLES
◦ http://www.careerbuilder.com/jobposter/small-business/
article.aspx?articleid=ATL_0087INTERVIEWNO-NOS
◦ http://www.careerbuilder.com/jobposter/small-business/
article.aspx?articleid=ATL_0082INTERVIEWQUESTIONS
5. Anticipate the questions you may be asked in an interview. For example,
what could you say in a behavioral interview? Prepare your answer
using the examples found at http://webatl02.officearrow.com/job-
search/the-star-method-of-interviewing-oaiur-107/view.html. For
edification and fun, collaborate with classmates to do role-plays of job
interviews. Videotape your interviews. View the videos and read the
twenty tips on “How to Nail an Interview” at
http://www.howtonailaninterview.com/#vid. Also see the Vault.com
videos of interviews at http://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=S1ucmfPOBV8. As an employer, would you hire yourself? What
interviewing preparations and skills do you think you need to work on?
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Statistically, it is almost impossible for you to expect to have one job or career for
your entire working life. At least once and possibly many times, you will change
jobs or even careers. You will have to leave your current or former job and find
another. Handling that transition can be difficult, especially if the transition is not
what you would have preferred. How you handle that transition may affect your
success or satisfaction with your next position.
You may leave your job voluntarily or involuntarily. When you leave voluntarily,
presumably you have had a chance to make a reasoned decision and have decided
that the net benefits of moving on are more than the net benefits of staying.
Leaving Voluntarily
You may decide to leave a job and move to another for the following reasons:
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• retire
Whatever your motivation for leaving your job, your decision should make sense;
that is, it should be based on a reasoned analysis of how it will affect your life. If you
have dependents, you will have to consider how your decision may affect their lives
too.
Since your job is a source of income, leaving your job means a loss of that income.
You need to consider how you can maintain or change your current use of income
(i.e., spending and saving levels) with that loss.
If you are changing jobs, your new job will replace that income with new income
that is more than, equal to, or less than your old paycheck. If it is equal to or more
than your former income, you may maintain or even expand your spending, saving,
and investing activities. Extra income will provide you with more choices of how to
consume or save. If it is less than your former income, you will have to decrease
your spending or saving to fit your current needs. Your budget can help you foresee
the effects of your new income on your spending and saving.
If you are leaving employment, then there will be no replacement income, so your
spending and saving activities should reflect that loss, unless you have an
alternative source of income to replace it. If you are going on to graduate school,
perhaps you have a fellowship or scholarship. If you are assuming family care
responsibilities, perhaps another family member has offered financial support. If
you are retiring, you should have income from invested capital (e.g., your
retirement savings) that can be used to replace your wages or salary.
If you are initiating the job change, be sure you try to cause the least disruption and
cost to your employer. Let your employer know of your decision as soon as is
practical, and certainly before anyone else in the company knows. “Two weeks
notice” is the convention, but the more notice you can give, the less inconvenience
you may cause. Offer to help train your successor or be available to provide
information or assist in the transition. The more cordially you leave your job, the
better your relationship with your former employer will be, which may reflect well
on you in future networking.
If you participated in a defined contribution retirement plan you own those funds
to the extent that you are vested in your employer’s contributions and have
contributed your own funds. You can leave those funds as they are invested, or you
can transfer them to your new job’s plan and invest them differently. There may be
some time limits to doing so, and there may be tax considerations as well, so be sure
you consult with your former employer and understand the tax rules before moving
any funds.
The decision to leave a job and perhaps to leave employment means leaving
nonincome benefits that can create opportunity costs, including
If you have had a negative work experience, leaving may allow you to reduce
boredom, eliminate job dissatisfaction, end conflict, avoid unwanted overtime, or
reduce stress, but these are reasons for leaving a job that you probably should not
share with a new or prospective employer.
According to a 2009 Salary.com survey, only around 15 percent of workers said they
were “extremely satisfied” with their jobs. Working retirees and those in the health
care and Internet industries were the most satisfied, while workers under thirty
and those working in finance-related fields were the least satisfied. At the time of
the survey, about 60 percent of workers were looking around for another job,
despite most claiming they were generally satisfied with their wages or salaries.
Many were worried about being laid off in a down
economy.http://www.salary.com/personal/layoutscripts/
psnl_articles.asp?tab=psn&cat=cat011&ser=ser032&part=par1352 (accessed August
5, 2009).
As you can see, many micro and macro factors may enter into a decision to leave a
job. You spend many of your waking hours working, and deciding to change jobs is
about much more than just income. It is still a decision about income, however, so
you should carefully weigh the effects of that decision on your personal financial
well-being.
Leaving Involuntarily
If you leave your job involuntarily, you will have to make adjustments for a loss of
income that you were not planning to make. That may be difficult, but not so much
as you think.
If the layoff is due to an economic recession when there is less demand for the
product you create, then it may be affecting your entire industry. That would mean
you would have a harder time finding a similar job. If layoffs are widespread
enough, however, there may be federal, state, or local government programs aimed
at helping the many people in your situation, such as a retraining program or
temporary income assistance.
You may get laid off because your employer is no longer as competitive or
profitable and so has to cut costs or because the company has lost financing. If the
layoffs are specific to your employer, you may be able to find a similar position with
another company or you may be able to establish your own competitive business in
the same industry.
When you are fired, the employer permanently terminates your employment based
on your performance. Involuntary termination9, or getting fired, will cause a
sudden loss of income that usually requires sudden adjustments to spending and
saving. You may have to use your accumulated savings to finance your expenditures
until that income can be replaced by a new job.
By law, employers may not discriminate against people with disabilities so long as
they are able to do a job. A job accommodation10 is any reasonable adjustment to a
job or work environment that makes it possible for an individual with a disability to
perform or continue to perform job duties.
If you become disabled and unable to work, you may be able to replace some or all
of your wage income with insurance coverage, if you have disability insurance that
covers the specific circumstances (as discussed in Chapter 10 "Personal Risk
Management: Insurance"). If your disability is permanent, you may qualify for
federal assistance through Social Security. If someone else is liable for your
disability, in the case of an accident or through negligence, his or her insurance
coverage may provide some benefit, or you may have a legal claim that could
provide a financial settlement.
If your employer initiates your job change, be sure to discuss his or her obligations
to you before you leave. Some employer responsibilities are prescribed by law, as
shown in Figure 18.11 "Major U.S. Employment Legislation". Other responsibilities
9. The ending of an employment are prescribed by union contract, if applicable, and some are conventions or
relationship; termination may courtesies that your employer may—or may not—choose to extend.
be initiated by the employee
(voluntary), the employer
(involuntary), or mutually Severance11 is compensation and benefits offered by your employer when you are
agreed upon by both.
fired. Your employer is not obligated to offer any severance, but “two weeks pay” is
10. A provision of the Americans the convention for wages. Your employer is also not required to “pay” for your
with Disabilities Act of 1990 remaining sick days or vacation days or to extend your benefits, including
that employers make
retirement contributions or life insurance, unless specified in a contract. In most
“reasonable accommodations”
for employees with defined cases, your employer is required under federal law to offer you the opportunity to
disabilities so as not to remain covered under your employee health insurance plan if you assume the cost.
discriminate against them. This continuation of health coverage is provided by COBRA, the Consolidated
11. Compensation upon dismissal Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1986 (discussed in Chapter 10 "Personal Risk
from employment. Management: Insurance"). Employers must also provide proof of “insurability,”
Employment Protection
Federal and state laws govern relationships between employers and employees. A
large part of employment law addresses hiring and firing issues as well as working
conditions. You should be familiar with the laws that apply where you work (as they
differ by state and sometimes by county) so that you understand your
responsibilities to your employer and your employer’s obligations to you.
Major federal legislation that addresses these issues is outlined in Figure 18.11
"Major U.S. Employment Legislation".
Figure 18.11 Major U.S. Employment LegislationU.S. Department of Labor, “Summary of the Major Laws of the
Department of Labor,” http://www.dol.gov/opa/aboutdol/lawsprog.htm (accessed July 21, 2009).
12. A legal term to describe a These laws cover all aspects of employment: hiring, negotiation, working
termination by the employer conditions, compensation, benefits, and termination. Workers can sue a company
that violates the employment for wrongful discharge12—for being fired for any reason barred by an employment
contract or the law.
law. Employers often seek to protect themselves from suits by requiring terminated
employees to sign a form releasing the company from liability.
Companies have ethical standards for dealing with the hiring and firing of
employees, but they also may have informal practices for encouraging unwanted
employees in good standing to leave. Employment laws cannot protect workers
against some unethical practices, but they have clauses that prohibit retaliation13
against employees who invoke those laws or enlist government assistance to
enforce them. The laws also protect whistleblowers14 who report employer
infractions to government authorities.
Your job and eventually your career will play many roles in your life. It will
determine how you spend your time, who you spend your time with, where you
live, and how you live. It will probably be a primary determinant of income and
therefore of how much you can spend, save, and invest. How you chose to spend,
save, and invest is up to you, and your financial decisions can have far-reaching
consequences. The more you know and the more you understand, the more you can
make decisions that can satisfy your dreams.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
◦ layoff,
◦ disabling accident or injury,
◦ firing.
• Leaving a job involuntarily means a sudden loss of income.
◦ severance,
◦ employment insurance,
◦ continuation of health and other benefits.
• Federal, state, and local laws address employment issues, including
hiring, working conditions, compensation, and dismissal. Laws exist to
protect workers.
EXERCISES