Paper HoyNoCircula

Atmospheric pollution and the measures
to improve the air quality on Mexico City
R. Silva-Quiroz1,2, A. Frank1,3,4, C. Gay5, A.L. Rivera1,3
1
Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México.
2
Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México.
3
Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México.
Circuito Exterior S/N, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510 Ciudad de México, México.
4
Miembro del Colegio Nacional.
5
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México.
E-mail: [email protected] (RSQ), [email protected] (ALR)
1 ABSTRACT
2 In this paper is studied the relationship between meteorological variables (temperature,
3 humidity, wind speed and direction) and atmospheric pollutants (ozone, nitrogen oxides and
4 suspended particles) using mathematical tools such as Singular Value Decomposition and
5 Spectral Analysis. This allows to find trends, periodicities, and fluctuations of each variable.
6 Data of 5 atmospheric stations on Mexico City since 2000 are analyzed comparing average
7 days with the 113 cases of environmental contingencies reported in the period.
10 Keywords: Atmospheric pollution; environmental contingencies; Mexico City; Singular
11 Value Decomposition; Spectral Analysis.
12
13
1
14 INTRODUCTION
15
16 According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the most accepted
17 evidence of climate change is the increase in global temperature in a short time scale. The
18 greenhouse effect is undoubtedly a predominant factor to explain global warming. However
19 there is still controversy regarding the proportion of contribution of natural and anthropogenic
20 emissions. For many years, anthropogenic carbon dioxide has been considered the main
21 greenhouse effect gas with local and global repercussions, but recently a new element has
22 appeared on consideration: black carbon. Black Carbon has recently been considered by part of
23 Geophysical Research Community1, to be the second most important man-made agent of local
24 climate change. Black Carbon is a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm) and it
25 consists of pure carbon in several linked forms. It is formed through the incomplete combustion
26 of fossil fuels, biofuel, and biomass, and is emitted in both anthropogenic and naturally
27 occurring soot. In cities, Black Carbon emitted mainly by automobiles and industries absorbs
28 sunlight and re-emits in the infrared spectrum, causing temperatures to rise locally. Following
29 the hypothesis that suggests that the presence of Black Carbon in the atmosphere increases
30 temperature, we analyze time series of temperature and black carbon available in the
31 metropolitan area of Mexico City. The databases are temperature measurements of fifteen
32 stations of the University Weather Stations Program (PEMBU-UNAM) and the measurements
33 of the University Network of Atmospheric Observatories (RUOA/CCA-UNAM). As a first
34 step we study temperature heterogeneity in the city, using principal component analysis.
35 Geographical sub-regions show a homogeneous trend in temperature. We also found
36 correlations between concentrations of Black Carbon and temperature, as well as patterns
2
37 associated with the peak in the vehicular traffic and social activities. The importance in the
38 study of Black Carbon behavior is take into account that it has a very short life, and that
39 government measures can be applied.
40
41
42 METHODOLOGY
43
44
45 RESULTS
46
47
48 CONCLUSIONS
49
50
51 Acknowledgemet
52 Funding for this paper is partially provided by UNAM through project IN106215.
53
54
3
55 REFERENCES
56
57 AMS. 2009. Glossary of Meteorology. American Meteorological Society.
58
59 Bond, T. C., et al. (2013), Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific
60 assessment, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118:5380–5552, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50171.
61
62 GaWC.2009.“GlobalizationandWorldCitiesStudyGroupandNetwork(GaWC).”Loughborough
63 University .
64
65 Golyandina, N. 2011. Analysis of Time Series Structure: SSA and related techniques. Chapman
66 and Hall/CRC.
67
68 Hassani, H. 2007. “Singular Spectrum Analysis: Methodology and Comparison.” Journal of
69 Data Science.
70
71 IPCC. 2001. “Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis,How Much is the World Warming?”
72 IPCC.
73
74 Jimenez, B. 2001. La Contaminación Ambiental en México. Limusa.
75
76 Retama, A. 2015. “Seasonal and diurnal trends in black carbon properties and co-pollutants in
77 Mexico City.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
4
78
79 Wang, T. et al. 2010. “Air quality during the 2008 Beijing Olympics: secondary pollutants and
80 regional impact.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
81
82 WMO. 1996. Climate and urban Development. World Meteorological Organization no.844.
83
5
Figure 1: Pollution emissions for sector (adapted from SEDEMA-CDMX).
6
7
Figure 2: Tendencies obtained by SSA.
8
Figure 3. 24 hours before an atmospheric contingency.
9
Figure 4. One hundred data randomly choose between 14:00 to 17:00 with O3<155 ppm.
84
10
85
11
86
12
Figure: Station in CU/UNAM.
87
13
88
14
15
Ideas principales
 Automóviles particulares contribuyen más a la contaminación del aire.

 La OMS atribuye que la contaminación del aire provoca 3.7 millones de muertes
anualmente en el mundo.
 Se implementan medidas de restricción de circulación vehicular en el mundo, con la
finalidad de reducir emisiones. México desde 1989 con el programa Hoy No Circula (HNC).
 Se usan datos horarios para contaminantes atmosféricos y variables meteorológicas.
 Para entender el poco efecto de la medida (inclusión de sábados al programa), estudian
las métricas de afluencia de pasajeros en los distintos medios de transporte masivo.
Asimismo:
o Realiza regresiones lineales en las variables contaminantes.
o Realiza un promedio de las variables sobre todas las horas y sobre todas las estaciones
de monitoreo.
o Realiza un ajuste polinomial de quinto orden para obtener la tendencia de cada
variable.
 El artículo se refiere asimismo como el primero en estudiar los sábados, así como
incluir el estudio de partículas suspendidas.
 El articulo dice usar datos de RAMA y estudiar las estaciones de monitoreo
atmosférico: Zoológico de Chapultepec, Museo de Antropología y el AICM.
 Los contaminantes criterio en ciudad de México que provocaron la implantación del
programa HNC fueron el ozono y PM10.
 El soborno por parte de automovilistas hacia autoridades, así como la compra de más
automóviles por parte de los primeros, hace que el programa HNC sea menos efectivo.
 El articulo cita a un autor que afirma que, desde el inicio en 1989, el programa HNC
no ha tenido efectos.
 La discusión final se centra en los costos económicos tanto para el gobierno como para
los usuarios, evaluando la relación costo-beneficio del programa HNC.
En el texto los siguientes fragmentos están relacionados y hacen referencia a que en su estudio
no encuentran incremento en el uso de transportes urbanos
Algunos autores, como el economista y urbanista Salvador Medina Ramírez, han estudiado
los efectos del programa HNC, así como la movilidad en la ciudad llegando a proponer entre
otras cosas la expansión del sistema de transporte masivo (ver más detalles en:
http://labrujula.nexos.com.mx/?p=305).
Otros textos del mismo presentan criticas al programa HNC
Ver:
http://labrujula.nexos.com.mx/?p=1134
http://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=28774
http://redaccion.nexos.com.mx/?p=6333
16

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Atmospheric pollution and the measures

to improve the air quality on Mexico City

R. Silva-Quiroz1,2, A. Frank1,3,4, C. Gay5, A.L. Rivera1,3

E-mail: [email protected] (RSQ), [email protected] (ALR)

2 In this paper is studied the relationship between meteorological variables (temperature,

10 Keywords: Atmospheric pollution; environmental contingencies; Mexico City; Singular

11 Value Decomposition; Spectral Analysis.

18 greenhouse effect is undoubtedly a predominant factor to explain global warming. However

33 of the University Network of Atmospheric Observatories (RUOA/CCA-UNAM). As a first

35 Geographical sub-regions show a homogeneous trend in temperature. We also found

36 correlations between concentrations of Black Carbon and temperature, as well as patterns

39 government measures can be applied.

57 AMS. 2009. Glossary of Meteorology. American Meteorological Society.

60 assessment, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118:5380–5552, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50171.

68 Hassani, H. 2007. “Singular Spectrum Analysis: Methodology and Comparison.” Journal of

74 Jimenez, B. 2001. La Contaminación Ambiental en México. Limusa.

77 Mexico City.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

80 regional impact.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

 Automóviles particulares contribuyen más a la contaminación del aire.

Otros textos del mismo presentan criticas al programa HNC

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