What 'S Expected of Us: It 'S A Tough Cho Ice

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FUTURES NATURE|

Vo
l436|
7Ju
ly2005

Wha
t’sexpe
ctedo
fus
I
t’
satoughcho
ice…

abl yr espond , “Bu t

JACEY
T
edCh
iang
nowI know .
” And
Thisi saw arn in g.P l eas er e ad som eo fth emn e v
er
carefu l
ly. sa yan ythin ga gain .
B yn owy ou’v ep ro b ablys e en Som e w illa rgue
aP red icto r;m illion so fth em th atth ef a ctth eP re
-
haveb eenso ldb yth et im e dictor c au ses th is
you’rer ead in gth i s
.F ortho s e ch an geinb eha viour
whoh av en’ts eenon e,i t
’sa me ansth atw ed oh ave
sm alld e vic e
, likear emo tefo r fre ew il
l.Anau tom a
-
open in gy ou rc a rdoo r.It son l y ton c anno tb e com e
featu resa r eabu ttonandab i g discou ra ged, on l ya
greenLED .Th e ligh t f
l ash es if fre e-
th ink in g en ti
ty
youp res sth ebu tton .Sp ecifi- can . Th ef act th a
t
cal
l y
,th eli ght flash e son es e c- som e ind i
vidu a
ls
ond b efor e you p ress th e des cend in toak in e
tic
button . mutismwh er easo th-
M ostp eop les ayth atwh en ersdono tju s
th igh-
the yf irstt ryi t
,i tf eelsl ik e ligh tsth eimpo rtan c
e
the y
’r epl ayin gas tr an geg am e, ofm akin gach oic e.
onewh er eth ego ali stop re ss Unfortun at e
ly,su ch
the bu ttona fters eein gth e re asonin gi sf aulty
:
flash,andi t’se as ytop la y
.Bu t ev eryfo rmo fb eh av-
whenyout r yto b re akth e iou ri s comp atibl
e
rules,y ou f
ind th aty ouc an’t.If with d e
t erm in ism .
yout r ytop r essth ebu tton On ed yn am ics yst em
wi
thou th a vin gs eenaf l ash ,th ef lash imp lication so fan immu t abl efu tures ink mightf al
lin toab asino fa ttractionand
imm ediat elyapp ear s
,andnom at
t erhow in. Som ep eop l e
,r e alizin gth a
tth ei
r windupa ta fixedpo in t
,wh ere asano th er
fastyoumo ve,youn e verpu sh thebu tton choic e
sdon ’tm atter
,r efu seto m akean y exhibi
t sch a oticb eha v
i ourind efinite
l y,but
untilas e condh ase lap sed .Ifyouw aitfor choic e
sa tall.L i kea legiono fB art
le by the bothar ecom pletelyd et ermin istic.
the flash, int end in g t ok eep fr omp re s
sing Scrivene rs
,th e yn o lon ge ren g ag einspon - I’mt ran sm ittingth isw arn in gtoyou
thebu ttona fterw ard s,th ef lashn e ve
r taneou sa ction .E ven tu a
ll y
,a th irdo fth o
se from ju sto ve ray ear iny ou rfu tu re
:it’sthe
app ea r
s.N om atterwh atyoudo ,
th elight whop la yw ithaP redi c
to rmu stb eho sp i- firs
tlen gth ym essa ger ecei vedwh enc ir
-
alw aysp r ec ed esth ebu ttonp ress
.Th ere’
s tal
izedb eca use the yw on’tfeed them s elves
. cuitsw ithn e g
ati v
ed elaysinth em ega-
now ay to foo laP red i c
t or. Theends tate isa kin eticmu tism ,ak indo f second r an ge a r e u sed to bu i
ld
Th eh ear to fe achP red icto r isac ircuit wakin gcom a
.Th e y
’llt rac k mo tionw ith commun i cationd evi ces.O th erm es sages
wi
than eg ativetim ed ela y— its end sas ig- theire ye s
,andch an gepo sit
iono cc asion- wi
llfollow ,add ressin go th eri ssu es.M y
nalb a ckint im e
.Th e full imp licat
ion so f a
lly,butn othin gm ore.Th ea bilitytom ove messagetoyoui sth is:p retendth atyou
the techn olo gyw i
llb ec om ea pparent la
ter
, rem ains,bu tth em ot
i vati oni sg on e
. havefre ew ill
. It
’se s
sen tialth aty oub eh ave
whenn e gativ ed elay so fg re ater thanas ec- Bef o
r ep eop les tartedp la y
in gw ithP re- asifyou rd ecision sm a
tter,e v enthou gh
onda rea ch ie ved,bu tth a
t’sno twh atthis dic
to rs
,ak in eti c mu tismw asv eryr ar e
,a youknow th atth eydon ’t
.Th er e a
lity isn
’t
warnin gi sa bou t.Th e imm ed i atepro blem resultofd am age to th ean t erio rcin gul a
te im port ant:wh at’
s im po rtant i
sy ourb eli
ef
,
isth atP r edi c
to rsd emon str ate tha
t th ere

s regiono fth eb r a
in .N owi tsp read slik ea andb elievin gth eli ei sth eon l yw ayto
nosu chth in ga s fre ew ill. cogn i
tiv epla gu e.P eopl eu sed tosp e culate avoida w ak ingcom a.C iviliz at
ionnow
Th e r
eh avea lw ay sb e ena rgum ents abou ta thou ght th atd estr oys th ethin ker
, depend sons elf-de cep t
ion .P erhap si t
show ing th at freew illi san illu s
ion,som e som eun spe ak ablel ovec raft
i anh orror,o ra alwaysh as.
basedonh ardph ysic s
,o th e rsb asedon Göd e
ls en ten c eth atc r ash esth ehum an Andy etIknow that,b ecause fr eew illis
FUTURES

pure lo g
i c.M ostp eop lea gre eth esea rgu- logic a
ls y
stem .I ttu rn sou tth atth ed is
- anil
lu sion ,it’
sa llpred eterm inedwhow il
l
mentsa rei rrefu tab le,bu tnoon ee v e
r abl
in gth ou ght ison e th a
tw e’vea llen coun - descendin toak ineti c mu tismandwho
reallya cc ept sth econ clu s
ion .Th ee xp eri
- tered:th eid ea th a
t freew il
ld o esn’
te xist.I
t won’
t. Th er e
’sno thin gan yon ec ando
enc eo fh a v
in g fre ew illi st oopow erfulfor justw asn ’
th arm fulun tily oub elieved it
. abouti t —youc an’tchoo s eth ee ffect the
ana rgum ent too ver rul e
. Wh atittak esisa Do ctorst rya rgu in gw ithth ep atien t
s Predicto rh asonyou .Som eo fyouw i
ll
dem onstr ation,and th at’swh ataP redictor whi
le the yst
illr esp ond t oc on vers a
tion.W e succumbandsom eo fyouwon ’t,andm y
provid es. hadallb een l
i vin gh ap py
,a ct
iv elivesb ef or
e, sendin gth isw arnin g won ’ta ltertho se
Typ ically,ap ersonp l aysw ithaP r
ed ictor the yre ason,andw eh adn ’th adf reew il
l proportion s.Sowh yd idIdo i
t?
com pulsiv e
l yf orse ve rald a ys
,sh owin gitto thene ith e
r. Wh ysh ouldan y
th in gch an ge
? Becau seIh adnocho ice. ■
friend s,t ryin gv ariou ss ch em estoou twi
t “N oa ctiony out oo kl ast mon thw asan y TedChiang
i sanoccasiona
lw r
ite
rofscien
ce
thed evic e
.Th ep er sonm aya pp ea
r tolo s
e moref re el
ycho senth anon ey out ake f
i c
tion
.Hiswo rkcanbefoundinhis
inter es
t in it,bu tnoon ec an for g
etwh ati
t tod ay
,”ado ct orm igh ts a y
.“Y ouc ans t
il
l col
lect
ionStor
iesofYourLi
feandOthe
rs,
mean s —o verth efo llow in gw eeks,th e beha veth a
tw a yn ow .”Th ep ati entsin vari- publ
ishedbyP an Macmil
lan.
150
©2005 Nat
urePubl
ishi
ngGr
oup

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