22

British Journal of Educational Psychology (2014), 84, 22–39

© 2012 The British Psychological Society
www.wileyonlinelibrary.com

School motivation and high school dropout: The

mediating role of educational expectation

Weihua Fan* and Christopher A. Wolters

University of Houston, Texas, USA

Background. A good deal of evidence indicates that students’ motivational beliefs and
attitudes play a critical role in their academic success. Research studies on how
motivational factors may help determine whether students remain in high school or drop
out, however, are relatively few. More specifically, there is a lack of research examining
the dynamics of whether students’ motivational beliefs from earlier in high school might
be used to predict their status as a dropout in their final year.
Aims. The aim of the present study was to examine the mediating role of students’
educational expectations in linking students’ school motivation to their dropout status by
utilizing a nationally representative dataset.
Sample. The present study used data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002
(ELS: 2002). The final sample consisted of 16,194 students, with approximately 54%
White, 13% Black, 16% Hispanic, and 10% Asian students, and the rest were Native
American, Hawaiian, multiracial, or of other races.
Method. Structural equation modelling was employed to conduct the mediational
analysis.
Results. The results of the present study demonstrated that the relationships between
student ability beliefs in math and English and student behaviour of dropping out were fully
mediated by students’ educational expectations. The results also revealed that student
intrinsic value in math and English had significant indirect relations with student behaviour
of leaving school through students’ educational expectations.
Conclusions. The results of this study suggest that explanations for student dropout
status that rely solely on students’ social background and school behaviours without
considering their motivation are incomplete. The study expands the extant research by
showing possible pathways that motivate students to persist in high school. These
pathways are specifically rooted in students’ ability beliefs and intrinsic interest in learning
through their relationships with students’ expectations for their education.

High school dropout rates have become one of the most prominent educational problems
that result in costs not only to individuals but also to larger society. Research has shown
that students who dropped out of school are more likely to have health problems, get
involved in criminal activities, be employed with lower income jobs, and become more

*Correspondence should be addressed to Weihua Fan, Educational Psychology, College of Education, University of Houston, 423
Farish Hall, Houston, TX 77204-5029, USA (email: [email protected]).

DOI:10.1111/bjep.12002
 School motivation and high school dropout 23

dependent on welfare and other public assistant programs, (e.g., Alexander, Entwisle &
Horsey, 1997; Rumberger, 1987). A large volume of research has been dedicated towards
identifying factors that might explain why students drop out of school before their high
school graduation. Research has shown that students bear greater risk of leaving school if
they perform poorly academically, demonstrate more misbehaviours, become less
engaged in school activities, come from low-income families or single-parent families,
have a less- supportive relationship with parents, join schools with poor academic quality,
obtain less support from teachers, or get negative influence from peer friends (e.g.,
Alexander et al., 1997; Archambault, Janosz, Fallu & Pag, 2009; Battin-Pearson et al.,
2000; Englund, Egeland & Collins, 2008; Janosz, Archambault, Morizot & Pagani, 2008;
Kaplan, Peck & Kaplan, 1997; Lan & Lanthier, 2003; Rumberger, 1987, 1995).
In the past decade, researchers have also begun to use student school motivation to
better understand and explain why students drop out of school. From this perspective,
students’ decision to drop out is not just an achievement issue, but also a function of their
motivation for school (e.g., Hardre & Reeve, 2003). Although motivational beliefs and
attitudes appear to play a critical role in students’ academic success (e.g., Anderman &
Wolters, 2006; Robbins et al., 2004; Skaalvik & Valas, 1999), investigations of how these
factors relate to students’ decision to leave high school are limited. The overall objective of
the present study, therefore, was to examine the longitudinal predictive power and the
dynamics of early high school students’ motivation in predicting whether they left school
before the end of the 12th grade. More specifically, the present study examined the
mediating role of students’ educational expectations in linking students’ school
motivation to their later behaviour of leaving or persisting in high school by utilizing a
nationally representative dataset. Findings convey practical significance such as devel-
oping dropout prevention interventions with an emphasis on promoting student school
motivation to increase student persistence in high school.

Theories of motivation
Students’ motivation for school drives their thoughts and actions to obtain academic
success and plays an important role in their efforts to learn, perform, and behave (e.g.,
Anderman & Wolters, 2006). Various theories have posited the influence of motivation in
shaping students’ school behaviour. For example, Tinto (1975, 1993, 2003) proposed an
integration model of attrition that uses students’ interactions with the academic and social
systems along with individual characteristics such as educational expectation, values, and
other motivational attributes to understand their decision to leave or persist in college.
Tinto asserted that students’ educational expectations and view of their own education
experiences are important influences on their decision to drop out or persist in college.
Students who feel extrinsically and intrinsically rewarded tend to value their education
experience, place greater importance on their education, expect to achieve more
advanced academic goals, and are more persistent in college.
From another motivational perspective, Eccles et al. (1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000)
have used an expectancy-value model of motivation to understand adolescents’ social and
academic experiences, values and beliefs, expectancies of success, and achieve-
ment-related choices. This model states that students’ perceived academic competence
(i.e. ability belief) and students’ interest in learning (i.e. intrinsic value) play important
roles in shaping their expectations regarding how they will perform in school tasks, which
in turn influence their achievement-related choices and behaviours. That is, students who
feel confident about their learning abilities and view school activities as interesting are
24 Weihua Fan and Christopher A. Wolters

likely to have higher expectations of their performance on upcoming tasks and make more
positive achievement-related choices. Empirical researchers have applied this theory to
predict student engagement in academic activities (Cox & Whaley, 2004; Gao & Xiang,
2008), academic performance (Gao & Xiang, 2008; Meece, Wigfield & Eccles, 1990),
shame reactions from test feedback (Turner & Schallert, 2001), and full-time college
attendance (Eccles, Vida & Barber, 2004). Drawing upon expectancy-value model, the
present study was designed to advance our understanding of how students’ motivational
beliefs may shape their decision to persist or drop out of high school.

Relating intrinsic value and ability belief to educational expectation

Although school motivation has been studied using a variety of constructs, student
intrinsic value and ability belief are two prominent components described in many
motivational theories including the expectancy-value theory. Akin to Deci and Ryan’s
(1985) construct of intrinsic motivation, Eccles and colleagues defined intrinsic value as
the intrinsic reasons such as enjoyment an individual gets from engaging in an activity
(Eccles et al., 1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000). As such, it is one key element of task value
which determines the academic behaviours of an individual. Students who demonstrate
high intrinsic value engage in academic tasks due to their enjoyment of the task, interest,
and their desire to learn. Individuals’ beliefs in their ability to produce desired results, to
learn, and perform successfully is also known as ability belief or self-efficacy (Bandura,
1997; Wigfield, Byrnes & Eddles, 2006). Both intrinsic value and ability beliefs have been
shown to play an important role in adolescents’ academic development (Pajares, 1996;
Ryan & Deci, 2000; Schiefele, 2001; Zimmerman, 2000) by positively relating to student
persistence and effort (Renninger, Ewan & Lasher, 2002; Schunk & Zimmerman, 2006),
academic achievement (Renninger et al., 2002; Robbins et al., 2004) and achieve-
ment-related behaviouqrs (Britner & Pajares, 2006; Trusty, 2000).
In line with expectancy-value theory, we posit that students’ belief in obtaining desired
goals is shaped by their ability beliefs and intrinsic value. That is, students who are confident
in their learning abilities and are intrinsically interested in learning activities are more likely
to have higher expectations for obtaining desired academic goals. Although research has
primarily measured students’ beliefs for obtaining desired goals as expectancy of success in
a classroom context or within a scope of a certain subject (Wigfield & Eccles, 2000), an
analogous construct is students’ expectation for obtaining desired educational goals more
broadly. For adolescents who become old enough to legally leave school, their educational
expectations become even more critical. Unless students expect that they will ultimately
obtain a high school degree, they may have little incentive to persist in high school.
Prior research indicates that students’ ability beliefs are linked to their educational
expectations (e.g., Bandura, Barbaranelli, Caprara & Pastorelli, 2001; Rottinghaus, Lindley,
Green & Borgen, 2002; Tang, Pan & Newmeyer, 2008; Trusty, 2000). For example, Bandura
et al. (2001) conducted a longitudinal study to examine a structural model of sociocognitive
influences that shape students’ educational expectations and career trajectories. Their
results revealed that students’ academic expectations were positively linked to their ability
belief and were also a key determinant of their preferred choice of career. Trusty (2000)
conducted a national investigation of the stability of adolescents’ educational expectations.
Results suggested that ability beliefs positively predict the stability of educational
expectations for both female and male subjects. Although less frequently studied, extant
research also supports positive relations between intrinsic value and educational
expectations. For example, Rottinghaus et al. (2002) examined the role of ability belief
 School motivation and high school dropout 25

and interest in explaining college students’ expectations for their education. They found
that students’ interest and ability beliefs both made significant contributions in explaining
their educational expectations. Based on both theoretical and empirical evidence from prior
research, it seems reasonable to postulate that students’ ability beliefs and intrinsic values
positively predict their educational expectations.

High school dropout as a motivational outcome

Research has provided evidence that academic motivation is an important psychological
factor that helps predict whether students drop out of school (e.g., Caprara et al., 2008;
Hardre & Reeve, 2003; Horowitz, 1992; Lan & Lanthier, 2003; Stage, 1989; Vallerand &
Bissonnette, 1992; Vallerand, Fortier & Guay, 1997). The three most relevant studies in
this line of research include Hardre and Reeve (2003), Caprara et al. (2008), and Vallerand
et al. (1997). Hardre and Reeve (2003) tested a motivational mediation model based on
self-determination theory and showed that students’ self-determined motivation and
perceived competence significantly explained a unique amount of variance in students’
intentions to persist versus drop out of high school. Caprara et al. (2008) conducted a
longitudinal study to examine the developmental course of perceived efficacy for
self-regulated learning and its impact on student dropout. Their results revealed that high
school self-regulatory efficacy partially mediated the relation of junior high grades on high
school grades and the likelihood of remaining in school. Similarly, Vallerand et al. (1997)
demonstrated that students’ perceptions of competence and autonomy impacted
students’ self-determined motivation, which in turn predicted students’ intention and
ultimate behaviour of leaving high school. Their results not only revealed that dropout
students had lower levels of autonomy and perceived themselves as being less competent
at school activities, but also showed that students with higher perceived school
competence tended to have higher self-determined school motivation, and thus have a
stronger intention to stay in school and complete their high school education.
Collectively, these studies have contributed significantly to our understanding of the
relationship between students’ academic motivation and their decision to leave school. Still,
important research gaps exist. Although informative, studies of Vallerand et al. (1997) and
Caprara et al. (2008) focussed on the population of French-Canadian students or Italian
students respectively. Whether the same result patterns hold true for American high school
students remains unknown as different populations arise from very different historical
backgrounds, social environments, and cultural contexts. Hardre and Reeve (2003), on the
other hand, investigated students’ intention of dropping out instead of their actual
behaviour. And all three studies focus on student competence belief or autonomy from the
perspective of students’ self-determined motivation. Still needed is research conducted
with a larger spectrum of motivational constructs that applies different motivational
theories to discover how student school motivation may shape students’ actual behaviour of
dropping out. The representativeness of the national large-scale data also allows wider
conclusions generalizable to the population of high school students in the United States.

Relating educational expectation to high school dropout

Although the process of students’ dropping out has been widely investigated, educational
psychologists have less frequently examined the role of educational expectations in this
process. Yet students’ intentions of dropping out, their actual leaving behaviour, and their
expectations for education are closely intertwined in many ways. To attend college and
26 Weihua Fan and Christopher A. Wolters

obtain higher levels of advanced education, a high school diploma or equivalent is often a
basic requirement. One is very unlikely to be a college student without first graduating
from high school. Many studies have also ascertained the role of student expectations to
attend college as a major predictor of actually attending college (Andres, Adamuti-Trache,
Yoon, Pidgeon & Thomsen, 2007; Eccles et al., 2004). Thus, there is good reason to
believe that students who expect to attend college or obtain higher levels of education are
less likely to drop out of high school.
Prior research from different research literatures has provided support for the relation
between students’ educational expectations and their high school graduation/dropout
including studies of Ensminger and Slusarcick (1992), Muller (1998), and Schiller and
Muller (2000). Ensminger and Slusarcick (1992) conducted a longitudinal study to examine
students’ developmental paths towards high school graduation. Their results demonstrated
a strong link between students’ educational expectations and their graduation from high
school. From a different perspective, Muller (1998) examined if teachers’ expectations and
students’ educational expectations moderated the effects of the minimum competency
exam requirement on high school graduation. The results showed that students’ educational
expectations significantly predicted their successful graduation from high school. Similarly,
Schiller and Muller (2000) indicated that students’ own educational expectations were
significantly related to students’ likelihood of earning a high school diploma.
Although there is increased evidence for the significant role of educational
expectations and academic motivation in predicting high school graduation (and
conversely dropping out), less is known about the mechanisms that mediate this process.
It is commonly understood that, over time, students gradually disengage from school well
before they actually leave school (Lee & Burkam, 2003). Testing the mediational sequence
wherein students’ educational expectations play an intervening role in the relationship
between their motivational beliefs and their actual exit from high school will provide
insight into the dynamics of the dropout process. In support of the mediating role of
student educational expectations, Bandura et al. (2001) showed that students’ educa-
tional expectations mediated the effects of children’s ability belief on their occupational
pursuits and perceived career efficacy.
In summary, drawing upon the expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983), the
present study aimed to examine whether students’ expectations for their education
mediated the relationships between their academic motivation and their behaviour of
dropping out of high school. Figure 1 summarizes the hypothesized pathways amongst
student ability beliefs, intrinsic value, educational expectations, and high school dropout
behaviour. More specifically, students’ ability beliefs and intrinsic value have direct links
to students’ educational expectations, which concurrently lead to their dropout
behaviour. It is hypothesized that, when adolescents have stronger belief about their
academic abilities and greater interest in academic activities, they tend to have higher
expectations for their education and be more likely to persist in high school.

Method
Data
Data came from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS: 2002) conducted by the
National Center for Education Statistics. The ELS: 2002 surveyed a nationally represen-
tative cohort of students from the United States who proceed from 10th grade when they
were approximately 16 years old to post-secondary education or their chosen career. The
data provide a good description of the transitional pathways students follow in terms of
 School motivation and high school dropout 27

Grade 10
ability belief
across domains

Grade 10 Grade 12
educational drop out of
expectation high school

Grade 10
intrinsic value
across domains

Figure 1. Conceptual model. Note. Solid lines indicate hypothesized mediating paths and dashed lines
indicate direct paths from school motivation to high school dropout.

motivation, aspirations, and education experience. The present study utilized data from
both the base year survey in 2002 when students were in 10th grade as well as the
follow-up survey 2 years later in 2004. The change in students’ enrollment or dropout
status within the last 2 years of high school was the focus of the present study.
Similar to other large-scale national surveys, ELS: 2002 employed a two-stage complex
sample design, first selecting schools and then selecting students within each school. The
survey was administered in a national probability sample of 752 public, Catholic, and other
private schools. The present study handled the complex sample by applying stratum, cluster,
and weight in the statistical analysis procedures to correct for non-responses and to adjust for
unequal probabilities of student selection. We also employed a multiple imputation (MI)
Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to handle missing data using SAS 9.2. The MI approach
has been found to introduce appropriate random error in the process to obtain more
accurate estimates through repeated imputation (King, Honaker, Joseph & Scheve, 2001).
The final sample for the study consisted of 16,194 students, with approximately 54% White,
13% Black, 16% Hispanic, 10% Asian students, and 7% who indicated some other racial/
ethnic background (e.g., Native American, Hawaiian, multiracial). Among the final sample,
47% were male, 48% female, and 5% were missing data for gender.

Measures
Consistent with the user manual for the ELS: 2002 (NCES (National Center for Education
Statistics), 2007), the two primary motivational constructs examined as predictors on this
study were termed ability belief and intrinsic value. These scales on the ELS: 2002 were
adopted and adjusted from existing surveys in the literature such as the Motivated
Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (Pintrich, Smith, Garcia & McKeachie, 1993) and
the self-report Scale of Intrinsic Versus Extrinsic Orientation (Harter, 1981). Research has
provided strong empirical support for the domain specificity of ability belief and intrinsic
28 Weihua Fan and Christopher A. Wolters

value along the line of subjects such as English and math (e.g., Bong, 1997) and suggested
the need to investigate each motivation construct separately within subjects (Bong, 2001;
Gottfried, 1985; Jacobs, Lanza, Osgood, Eccles & Wigfield, 2002). Thus, both ability belief
and intrinsic value were assessed for math and English respectively in the present study.
All motivational measures were assessed in 2002 when students were in 10th grade. The
content of the items assessing each of the constructs is presented in Table 1. The items
assessing student academic ability belief and intrinsic value factors were all measured on a
4-point scale and were appropriately reverse-coded when necessary. Reliability coeffi-
cients of Cronbach’s alpha were .93, .93, .66,1 and.87 for each of the four scales
respectively (see Table 1).
Educational expectation was assessed when students were in the 10th grade with a
single item that asked them to report the highest educational level they expected to
complete. Students indicated one of the following: (1) less than high school graduation,
(2) high school graduation only, (3) attend or complete a 2-year school course in a
community or vocational school, (4) attend college but not complete a 4-year degree,
(5) graduate from college, (6) obtain a master’s degree or equivalent, (7) obtain a Ph.D.,
M.D. or other advanced degree. This composite was created and imputed statistically
using a weighted sequential hot deck procedure by ELS (ELS: 2002). In addition,
demographic variables assessing student ethnicity, gender, and socio-economic status
(SES) were also included in the present study. Ethnicity and gender were both binary
variables with non-white or female students coded as 1 and white or male students
coded as 0. SES generalised by ELS:2002 was a standardized composite based on five
standardized scores: students’ father’s/guardian’s education, mother’s/guardian’s edu-
cation, family income, father’s/guardian’s occupation, and mother’s/guardian’s
occupation.
The dependent variable used in the present study reflected students’ high school
enrollment status in spring 2004. This variable, labelled dropout status, indicated whether
a student was enrolled in school (dropout status = 0) or whether the student was no
longer enrolled in high school in spring 2004 (dropout status = 1). Among the total
sample of 16,194 students, 896 students (5.5%) had dropped out of school with 314
missing cases (1.9%). In comparison with the total sample, the group of students who had
dropped out of school included lower proportions of students who were White (38%) or
Asian (4%), but higher proportions of students who were Black (20%) or Hispanic (21%).

Analysis
A structural equation modeling (SEM) approach was used to test the mediating role of
educational expectation in the relationships between students’ academic motivation and
their dropout status. According to Baron and Kenny (1986), three criteria would need to
be met to conclude that full mediation exists. First, the particular motivational construct
must predict dropout status directly when educational expectation is not in the model.
Second, the motivation construct must predict educational expectation directly, and
educational expectation must predict dropout status when each are included in the
model. Third, the motivational construct must have no direct effect on dropout status
when educational expectation is controlled in the model.

1
The comparative lower reliability for the intrinsic value in math was probably due to the fact that there were less items (in this
case, two items) assessing this construct.
 School motivation and high school dropout 29

Table 1. Unweighted descriptive statistics for dropout and non-dropout students

Dropout Non-Dropout

Item content M SD M SD

Ability belief in math a = 0.93

Confident that can do an excellent 2.38 0.95 2.55 0.93
job in math tests
Certain that can understand the most 2.21 0.97 2.37 0.94
difficult material presented in math texts
Confident that can understand the most 2.33 0.98 2.47 0.97
complex material presented in math texts
Confident that can do an excellent job in 2.48 1.00 2.64 0.94
math assignments
Certain that can master the skills being 2.50 0.96 2.66 0.94
taught in math class
Ability belief in English a = 0.93
Certain that can understand the most difficult 2.42 0.93 2.61 0.89
material presented in English texts
Confident that can understand the most 2.44 0.94 2.65 0.92
complex material presented by English teacher
Confident that can do an excellent job in 2.60 0.92 2.84 0.88
English assignments
Confident that can do an excellent job in 2.57 0.94 2.79 0.90
English tests
Certain that can master the skills being taught 2.54 0.92 2.74 0.89
in English class
Intrinsic value towards math a = 0.66
Get totally absorbed in math 2.51 0.83 2.51 0.80
Think math is fun 2.19 0.85 2.21 0.84
Intrinsic value towards English a = 0.87
Think reading is fun 2.41 0.91 2.52 0.91
Read in spare time 2.44 0.94 2.50 0.92
Get totally absorbed in reading 2.64 0.92 2.74 0.92
Educational expectation 4.22 1.75 5.25 1.39
Social economic status 0.22 0.58 0.16 0.68
Gender (female = 1 and male = 0) 0.45 0.50 0.50 0.50
Ethnicity (non-white = 1 and white = 0) 0.61 0.49 0.45 0.50
N 896 15,301

Thus, two sets of SEM models were examined. The first set of models focussed on the
direct links from ability belief and intrinsic value to dropout status without accounting for
educational expectation. The second set of models included direct paths from both ability
belief and intrinsic value to dropout status as well as indirect paths through educational
expectation. Comparing results from the two sets of SEM models will help establish
whether there is any mediating effect of educational expectation.
All the analyses were conducted using Mplus 5.1 (Muthén & Muthén, 1998). Past
work (Schumacker & Lomax, 1996) has shown that the chi-square statistic is sensitive
to sample size and can result in a high and unwarranted rejection of an acceptable
model for large samples. In the present study, therefore, we followed the recommen-
30 Weihua Fan and Christopher A. Wolters

dation that a CFI >.90 and an RMSEA <.08 indicates acceptable model fit (Byrne, 2001;
Hu & Bentler, 1999).

Results
Descriptive statistics
Table 1 presents the unweighted means and standard deviations for the variables
assessed in 2002 separately for students in the dropout and non-dropout groups.
Participants who were not in high school by spring 2004 showed an average educational
expectation (M = 4.22) that indicated they had anticipated attending college but not
necessarily completing a 4-year degree. In contrast, students who persisted in high
school showed an average educational expectation (M = 5.25) that indicated they
anticipated graduating from college. In addition, educational expectation showed greater
variance for those who dropped out of high school (SD = 1.75) than for students who
persisted in high school (SD = 1.39). In general, students who subsequently persisted in
school showed higher averages on the items assessing ability beliefs in both math and
English than those who later dropped out of school. In contrast, the differences with
regard to intrinsic value between those who dropped out and those who did not were
much less apparent for each subject area. What’s more, greater percentage of non-white
students dropped out of high school and students who dropped out of high school had
lower average SES (see Table 1).

Testing the direct paths from school motivation to school dropout

Three models were tested to assess the direct paths from students’ school motivation
to their dropout status, while controlling for gender, SES, and ethnicity. As depicted
in Figure 2, model 1a assessed the direct paths from students’ ability beliefs to their
dropout status alone; model 1b tested the direct paths from students’ intrinsic value
to their dropout status alone; and model 1c tested the direct paths from both
students’ ability beliefs and intrinsic value to their dropout status simultaneously. All
three SEM models fit the data satisfactorily (see Table 2). The standardized values of
the paths between the observed variables and their corresponding factors were all
significant (all z’s exceeded 1.96) and had standardized factor loadings of .50 or
higher.
The results indicated that ability beliefs in English predicted dropout status directly in
both model 1a and 1c, whereas ability beliefs in math predicted dropout status directly
when assessed alone in model 1a (see Figure 2). That is, students who were more
confident about their learning abilities in math and English in the 10th grade were less
likely to have left high school two years later. These results are consistent with prior
research indicating that students who drop out have lower perceptions of competence
than students who persist (e.g., Horowitz, 1992; Vallerand et al., 1997). In contrast, the
direct links from students’ intrinsic value for math and English to dropout status were not
significant (see Figure 2). Hence, the extent to which students found math or English
enjoyable or interesting had no direct relations to whether they had left high school
two years later. In addition, gender, SES, and ethnicity appeared to be significant
covariates across three models, indicating male students, non-white students, and
students with low SES were more likely to drop out of high school.
 School motivation and high school dropout 31

Model 1a
Math Gender Ethnicity SES
self-efficacy –.07*
–.16** .26** –.39**

.22** Drop out

of high school
English
self-efficacy
–.09*

Model 1b
Math ns Gender Ethnicity SES
intrinsic value
.26** –.39**
–.15**
.09**
Drop Out
English of high school
intrinsic value
ns

Model 1c
Math
self-efficacy Gender Ethnicity SES
ns .26** –.39**
.22**
–.16**

.21** English
–.10*
self-efficacy
Drop out
.05** .02** of high school

Math ns
.22**
intrinsic value

.10** ns

English
intrinsic value

Figure 2. The first set of models testing the direct paths from student school motivation in 10th grade to
student dropout status in 12th grade. Note. **p < .001. *p < .05. ns indicates a non-significant path. All
coefficients are standardized.

Testing the mediating effects of educational expectation

The second set of SEM models (see Figure 3), which included indirect links between the
motivational variables and dropout status through educational expectations, also
provided an adequate overall fit with the data (see Table 2). The standardized values of
32 Weihua Fan and Christopher A. Wolters

Table 2. Summary of model fit

x2 (df) CFI RMSEA

Model 1a: Direct Paths from Ability 537.73 (11) .94 .05
belief to Dropout Status
Model 1b: Direct Paths from Intrinsic 504.82 (10) .90 .06
Value to Dropout Status
Model 1c: Direct Paths from School 1020.90 (25) .90 .05
Motivation to Dropout Status
Model 2a: Both Direct and Indirect Paths 558.97 (12) .94 .05
from Ability belief to Dropout Status
Model 2b: Both Direct and Indirect from 569.27 (12) .90 .05
Intrinsic Value to Dropout Status
Model 2c: Both Direct and Indirect Paths from 1019.90 (26) .91 .05
School Motivation to Dropout Status

the paths between the observed variables and their corresponding factors were all
significant (all z’s exceeded 1.96) and had standardized factor loadings of .50 or higher.
In this set of three models, students’ ability beliefs in math and English positively
predicted student educational expectation (see Figure 3). That is, when students felt
more confident and capable of their learning abilities in math and English they were likely
to have higher expectations for their future educational accomplishments. Similarly,
students’ self-reported intrinsic value for math and English both positively predicted their
educational expectations. On average, students who enjoyed learning math or English
expected to achieve higher levels of advanced education than their peers who did not
enjoy learning as much.
As hypothesized, educational expectation negatively predicted dropout status
(b = .18, p < .001) across the second set of models. Hence, those 10th grade students
who anticipated going further in their schooling were less likely to have left school two
years later compared with their peers who did not expect to complete as much schooling.
Perhaps most notably, results also showed that the direct links from student ability beliefs
in math and English to dropout status were non-significant when educational expectation
was included in the second set of models. Consistent with the first set of models, students’
intrinsic value for math and English in grade 10 was not directly related to their dropout
status two years later.
For ability beliefs, the pattern of results satisfies Baron and Kenny’s (1986) three
criteria for establishing mediation effects. In particular, findings indicated that: (1) ability
beliefs in both math and English predicted dropout status when educational expectation
was not in the model, (2) students’ ability beliefs significantly predicted educational
expectations, and educational expectations predicted dropout status, and (3) previously
significant direct links from ability beliefs to dropout status were no longer significant
after controlling for educational expectations. In sum, these findings indicate that
students’ educational expectations fully mediated the relations of student ability beliefs in
math and English to their dropping out of high school.
In contrast, mediation was not supported for intrinsic value. Although results showed
significant indirect effects of intrinsic value on students’ dropout status through student
educational expectations, neither aspect of intrinsic value predicted dropout status
directly (see Figure 1). Hence, the relations amongst intrinsic value, educational
 School motivation and high school dropout 33

Model 2a Gender Ethnicity SES

Math .44** ns .27** –.29**
self-efficacy ns ns .55**

.21**
.22**
Educational
Drop out
.29** expectation -.18** of high school
English
self-efficacy ns

Model 2b Gender Ethnicity SES

Math .44** ns .27** –.29**
intrinsic value ns ns .55**

.33**
.09** Educational
Drop out
.15** expectation -.18** of high school
English
intrinsic value ns

Model 2c Math Gender Ethnicity SES

self-efficacy ns
.44** ns .27** .55**
.22** -.29**
.12** ns
English
self-efficacy
ns

.29**
.21**
.02** Educational Dropout
.05** expectation -.18** of high school

.21**

.22** ns
Math
intrinsic value ns
.06*
.10**

English
intrinsic value

Figure 3. Hypothesized models predicting student dropout status. Note. **p < .001. *p < .05. ns
indicates a non-significant path. All coefficients are standardized.
34 Weihua Fan and Christopher A. Wolters

expectations, and dropout status failed to satisfy the first criteria identified by Baron and
Kenny (1986).
Interestingly, ability beliefs in English (b = .29, p < .001) was a stronger predictor for
educational expectations than ability beliefs in math (b = .12, p < .001). Similarly, English
intrinsic value (b = .21, p < .001) was a stronger predictor for educational expectations
than math intrinsic value (b = .06, p < .05). Furthermore, results showed that the
interrelationships amongst the four school motivation factors were all significant. The
stronger relations were observed to be between motivational constructs within the same
domain or the same motivational construct across domains. For example, students’
intrinsic interest in math was significantly related with students’ ability belief in math
(r = .21, p < .001), and students’ ability belief in English was significantly related with
students’ English intrinsic value (r = .22, p < .001). Students’ math ability belief was
significantly related with students’ English ability belief (r = .22, p < .001), and students’
math intrinsic value was significantly related with students’ English intrinsic value
(r = .10, p < .001). These findings are consistent with prior work on self-concept and
other work demonstrating the subject-area specificity of students’ motivational beliefs
(Bong, 2001).

Discussion
The present study extends the literature examining how students’ motivation may play
a role in their decision to drop out of high school. These findings suggest that
explanations for students dropping out of high school that rely solely on students’
social background and academic behaviours without considering their motivational
beliefs and attitudes are incomplete. The present study expands the extant research by
showing possible pathways that motivate students to persist in high school. These
pathways are specifically rooted in students’ ability belief and intrinsic interest in
learning through their relationships with students’ expectations for education. In one
pathway, students are less likely to drop out of high school when they feel confident in
their abilities regarding the core subjects of math and English and thus see greater
chance for them to obtain higher levels of education. In another pathway, when
students are genuinely interested in the tasks involved in learning math and English,
they tend to expect themselves to graduate from high school, attend college or receive
more advanced post-secondary education and thus become more likely to persist in
school.
The present study makes an important contribution to the literature by demonstrating
that the relationships between student ability beliefs in math and English and leaving
school before graduation were fully mediated by the level of education students expect to
achieve. It seems that students who have low belief about their academic abilities in math
and English are less likely to expect themselves to achieve higher levels of education.
Consequently, they become vulnerable and subject to dropping out of high school. These
results confirm previous findings linking student ability beliefs to student dropout (e.g.,
Trusty, 2000). However, prior research focused on testing whether the association
between student ability beliefs and dropping out existed but neglected the process
through which such a relation was produced. Incorporating student expectations for
education as a mediator reflects better the dynamics through which students come to
implement their decision to drop out of school. The results of the present study
provide valuable insight into one of the mechanisms that explains the associations
between students’ motivation and their departure from high school before graduation.
 School motivation and high school dropout 35

These mediation effects, moreover, are in line with prior research identifying students’
educational expectations as one of the mechanisms through which students’ ability
beliefs lead to particular career choices (Bandura et al., 2001).
The present results also revealed the significant indirect links from students’ intrinsic
value to their leaving school through students’ educational expectations. In other words,
whether students were genuinely interested in English or math was not related directly to
their decision to leave high school. However, intrinsic interest did positively link to
students’ educational expectations, which was then associated with a reduced risk of
dropping out of high school. These findings are in line with prior research suggesting that
whether students view learning as interesting and important was not directly related with
their choice behaviour (Cox & Whaley, 2004), but was associated with their educational
expectations from a personality perspective (Rottinghaus et al., 2002). The findings of the
present study lend support to the view that some aspects of academic motivation do not
necessarily lead directly to students’ school behaviours especially when the latter occurs
months or years later (Vallerand et al., 1997). Such is the case with the dropout process,
where students digest their feelings, perceptions, estimations and expectations and start to
disengage from school well before taking any overt action to leave school. The results from
the present study shed light on the importance of investigating the underlying processes
students utilize to make decisions and implement behaviour when examining the effects of
academic motivation on a more macro level school outcome such as dropping out.
Understanding why students drop out of school and how to prevent it has
long been a complicated and challenging task. The findings of the present study
suggest that students’ educational expectations form a bridge between their
motivational beliefs and attitudes and ultimate behaviour of persisting or
dropping out of high school. Educators seeking to prevent student dropout
may find these results of great interest because of the fact that academic
motivation and educational expectations are considered malleable within the
school context. It seems that one promising strategy for dropout prevention
would be to devise efforts intended to improve students’ educational expecta-
tions through the promotion of their academic motivation. Research has shown
that students are likely to foster stronger competence beliefs and intrinsic value
in learning when they have teachers who are supportive and warm, friends who
value academics, and parents who are involved in their children’s academic
learning (Fan, Lindt, Arroyo-Giner & Wolters, 2009; Fan & Williams, 2010;
Wentzel, 1998). Therefore, to reduce students’ risk of dropping out of high
school, it may be wise for teachers, parents, and administers to provide students
with a supportive instructional climate, educational programs, and activities that
improve their motivation and educational expectations.
In conclusion, utilizing the large-scale national data on US high school students, the
present study complements and extends earlier studies by examining the mediating role
of educational expectations on the relations between students’ motivational beliefs and
attitudes and their behaviour of dropping out of high school. Despite the contributions of
the present study, this study has important limitations that suggest the need for future
research. First, because both motivation and educational expectation measures used in
the present study were collected at the same time wave, we are not able to conduct a
longitudinal investigation and make any causal conclusions about the relations. Second,
the effect of student motivation on dropout appeared to be weaker than expected. One
reason might be that the present study was not able to study all potentially important
motivational factors such as students’ academic goals. The expectancy-value model of
36 Weihua Fan and Christopher A. Wolters

achievement choice applied in the present study has also proposed relations amongst
students’ long-term and short-term goals, expectancy of success and achievement-related
choices. Students’ academic goals have been extensively studied to explain their
achievement and learning success. However, less remains known about how students’
long-term and short-term goals relate to their decision to drop out of school. Future
research investigating the role of academic goals in explaining students’ dropout
behaviour within the framework of the expectancy-value model of achievement choice
will make unique contributions to the literature. Third, the measure of educational
expectations was assessed in a limited manner. Future studies utilizing an educational
expectation measure more tailored to assess student dropout intention might provide
valuable information. Last, despite our effort to control for extraneous effects such as
gender, ethnicity, and SES, some other important variables that might contribute to
explaining a significant portion of students’ dropout behaviour such as prior achievement
were not included in the study. Future research managing to incorporate a more complete
list of control variables will provide more robust results. We also acknowledge that only a
small subset of the expectancy-value model of achievement was tested. The addition of
factors such as cultural milieu and gender socialization might be important for
understanding better the role of motivation in predicting high school students’ dropout
behaviour. Notwithstanding, the findings support the expectancy-value model of
achievement choice as a unique and useful perspective for understanding whether
students’ drop out of high school.

References
Alexander, K. L., Entwisle, D. R., & Horsey, C. S. (1997). From first grade forward: Early foundations
of high school dropout. Sociology of Education, 70, 87–107. doi:10.2307/2673158
Anderman, E., & Wolters, C. (2006). Goal, values, and affect. In P. Alexander & P. Winne (Eds.),
Handbook of educational psychology (2nd ed.) (pp. 369–389). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum
Publishers.
Andres, L., Adamuti-Trache, M., Yoon, E., Pidgeon, M., & Thomsen, J. P. (2007). Educational
expectations, parental social class, gender, and postsecondary attainment: A 10-year
perspective. Youth & Society, 39, 135–163. doi:10.1177/0044118X06296704
Archambault, I., Janosz, M., Fallu, J., & Pag, L. S. (2009). Student engagement and its relationship
with early high school dropout. Journal of Adolescence, 32, 651–670. doi:10.1016/
j.adolescence.2008.06.007
Bandura, A. (1997). Self-efficacy. Harvard Mental Health Letter, 13 (9), 4–7.
Bandura, A., Barbaranelli, C., Caprara, G. V., & Pastorelli, C. (2001). Self-efficacy beliefs as shapers of
children’s aspirations and career trajectories. Child Development, 72, 187–206.
Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator-mediator distinction in social psychological
research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and
Social Psychology, 51, 1173–1182. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.51.6.1173
Battin-Pearson, S., Newcomb, M. D., Abbott, R. D., Hill, K. G., Catalano, R. F., & Hawkins, J. D. (2000).
Predictors of early high school dropout: A test of five theories. Journal of Educational
Psychology, 92, 568–582. doi:10.1037/0022-0663.92.3.568
Bong, M. (1997). Generality of academic self-efficacy judgments: Evidence of hierarchical relations.
Journal of Educational Psychology, 89, 696–709. doi:10.1037/0022-0663.89.4.696
Bong, M. (2001). Between- and within-domain relations of academic motivation among middle and
high school students: Self-efficacy, task-value, and achievement goals. Journal of Educational
Psychology, 93, 23–34. doi:10.1037/0022-0663.93.1.23
Britner, S. L., & Pajares, F. (2006). Sources of science self-efficacy beliefs of middle school students.
Journal of Research in Science Teaching, 43, 485–499. doi:10.1002/tea.20131
 School motivation and high school dropout 37

Byrne, B. M. (2001). Structural equation modeling with AMOS: Basic concepts, applications, and
programming. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
Caprara, G. V., Fida, R., Vecchione, M., Del Bove, G., Vecchio, G. M., Barbaranelli, C., & Bandura,
A. (2008). Longitudinal Analysis of the role of perceived self-efficacy for self-regulated
learning in academic continuance and achievement. Journal of Educational Psychology,
100, 525–534. doi:10.1037/0022-0663.100.3.525
Cox, A. E., & Whaley, D. E. (2004). The influence of task value, expectancies for success, and identity
on athletes’ achievement behaviors. Journal of Applied Sport Psychology, 16, 103–117.
doi:10.1080/10413200490437930
Deci, E. L., & Ryan, R. M. (1985). Intrinsic motivation and self determination in human behavior.
New York: Plenum.
Eccles, J. S., Adler, T. F., Futterman, R., Goff, S. B., Kaczala, C. M., Meece, J. L., & Midgley, C. (1983).
Expectancies, values, and academic behaviors. In J. T. Spence (Ed.), Achievement and
achievement motivation (pp. 75–146). San Francisco, CA: W. H. Freeman.
Eccles, J. S., Vida, M. N., & Barber, B. (2004). The relation of early adolescents’ college plans and both
academic ability and task-value beliefs to subsequent college enrollment. Journal of Early
Adolescence, 24, 63–77. doi:10.1177/0272431603260919
Englund, M. M., Egeland, B., & Collins, W. A. (2008). Exceptions to high school dropout predictions
in low-income sample: Do adults make a different? Journal of Social Issues, 64, 77–93.
doi:10.1111/j.1540-4560.2008.00549.x
Ensminger, M., & Slusarcick, A. (1992). Paths to high school graduation or dropout: A longitudinal
study of a first grade cohort. Sociology of Education, 65, 95–113. doi:10.2307/2112677
Fan, W., Lindt, S. F., Arroyo-Giner, C. A., & Wolters, C. A. (2009). The role of social relationships in
promoting student academic self-efficacy and MIMIC approaches to assess factorial mean
invariance. International Journal of Applied Educational Studies, 5, 34–53.
Fan, W., & Williams, C. (2010). The effects of parental involvement on students’ academic
self-efficacy, engagement, and intrinsic motivation. Educational Psychology, 30, 53–74.
doi:10.1080/01443410903353302
Gao, Z., & Xiang, P. (2008). College students’ motivation toward weight training: An application of
expectancy-Value model. Journal of Teaching in Physical Education, 27, 399–415.
Gottfried, A. E. (1985). Academic intrinsic motivation in elementary and junior high school students.
Journal of Educational Psychology, 77, 631–645. doi:10.1037/0022-0663.77.6.631
Hardre, P. L., & Reeve, J. (2003). A motivational model of rural students’ intentions to persist in,
versus drop out of, high school. Journal of Educational Psychology, 95, 347–356. doi:10.1037/
0022-0663.95.2.347
Harter, S. (1981). A new self-report scale of intrinsic versus extrinsic orientation: Motivation and
informational components. Developmental Psychology, 17, 300–312. doi:10.1037/
0012-1649.17.3.300
Horowitz, T. R. (1992). Dropout-Mertonian or reproduction scheme? Adolescence, 27, 451–459.
Hu, L., & Bentler, P. M. (1999). Cutoff criteria for fit indexes in covariance structure analysis:
Conventional criteria versus new alternatives. Structural Equation Modeling, 6, 1–55.
doi:10.1080/10705519909540118
Jacobs, J. E., Lanza, S., Osgood, D. W., Eccles, J. S., & Wigfield, A. (2002). Changes in children’s
self-Competence and values: Gender and domain differences across grades one through twelve.
Child Development, 73, 509–527.
Janosz, M., Archambault, I., Morizot, J., & Pagani, L. S. (2008). School engagement trajectories and
their differential predictive relations to dropout. Journal of Social Issues, 64, 21–40.
doi:10.1111/j.1540-4560.2008.00546.x
Kaplan, D. S., Peck, B. M., & Kaplan, H. B. (1997). Decomposing the academic failure-dropout
relationship: A longitudinal analysis. The Journal of Educational Research, 90, 331–343.
King, G., Honaker, J., Joseph, A., & Scheve, K. (2001). Analyzing incomplete political science
data: An alternative algorithm for multiple imputation. American Political Science Review, 95,
49–69.
38 Weihua Fan and Christopher A. Wolters

Lan, W., & Lanthier, R. (2003). Changes in students’ academic performance and perceptions of
school and self before dropping out of schools. Journal of Education for Students Placed At
Risk, 8, 309–332. doi:10.1207/S15327671ESPR0803_2
Lee, V. E., & Burkam, D. T. (2003). Dropping out of high school: The role of school organization
and structure. American Educational Research Journal, 40, 353–393. doi:10.3102/
00028312040002353
Meece, J. L., Wigfield, A., & Eccles, J. S. (1990). Predictors of math anxiety and its consequences for
young adolescents’ course enrollment intentions and performance in mathematics. Journal of
Educational Psychology, 82, 60–70. doi:10.1037/0022-0663.82.1.60
Muller, C. (1998). The minimum competency exam requirement, teachers’ and students’
expectations and academic performance? Social Psychology of Education, 2, 199–216.
doi:10.1023/A:1009658725797
Muthén, L. K., & Muthén, B. O. (1998). Mplus user’s guide. Los Angeles: Muthén & Muthén.
NCES (National Center for Education Statistics) (2007). Education longitudinal study of 2002 (ELS:
2002) base-year to second follow-up data. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education.
Pajares, F. (1996). Self-efficacy beliefs in academic settings. Review of Educational Research, 66,
543–578.
Pintrich, P., Smith, D., Garcia, T., & McKeachie, W. (1993). Predictive validity and reliability of the
Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (MSLQ). Educational and Psychological
Measurement, 53, 801–813. doi:10.1177/0013164493053003024
Renninger, K. A., Ewan, L., & Lasher, A. K. (2002). Individual interest as context in exploratory text
and mathematical word problems. Learning and Instruction, 12, 467–491. doi:10.1016/
S0959-4752(01)00012-3
Robbins, S. B., Lauver, K., Le, H., Davis, D., Langley, R., & Carlstrom, A. (2004). Do psychosocial
and study skill factors predict college outcomes? A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 130,
261–288. doi:10.1037/0033-2909.130.2.261
Rottinghaus, P. J., Lindley, L. D., Green, M. A., & Borgen, F. H. (2002). Educational aspirations: The
contribution of personality, self-efficacy, and task values. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 61,
1–19. doi:10.1006/jvbe.2001.1843
Rumberger, R. W. (1987). High school dropouts: A review of issues and evidence. Review of
Educational Research, 57, 101–121.
Rumberger, R. W. (1995). Dropping out of middle school: A multilevel analysis of students and
schools. American Educational Research Journal, 32, 583–625.
Ryan, R. M., & Deci, E. L. (2000). Intrinsic and extrinsic motivations: Classic definitions and new
directions. Contemporary Educational Psychology, 25, 54–67. doi:10.1006/ceps.1999.1020
Schiefele, U. (2001). The role of interest in motivation and learning. In J. M. Collis & S. Messick
(Eds.), Intelligence and personality: Bridging the gap in theory and measurement
(pp. 163–194). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
Schiller, K. S., & Muller, C. (2000). External examinations and accountability, educational
expectations, and high school graduation. American Journal of Education, 108, 73–102.
doi:10.1086/444235
Schumacker, R. E., & Lomax, R. G. (1996). A beginner’s guide to structural equation modeling.
Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
Schunk, D. H., & Zimmerman, B. J. (2006). Competence and control beliefs: Distinguishing the
means and ends. In P. A. Alexander & P. H. Winne (Eds.), Handbook of educational psychology
(2nd ed.) (pp. 349–367). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
Skaalvik, E. M., & Valas, H. (1999). Relations among achievement, self-concept, and motivation in
mathematics and language arts: A longitudinal study. The Journal of Experimental Education,
67, 135–149. doi:10.1080/00220979909598349
Stage, F. K. (1989). Motivation, academic and social integration, and the early dropout. American
Educational Research Journal, 26, 385–402.
Tang, M., Pan, W., & Newmeyer, M. (2008). Factors influencing high school students’ career
aspirations. Professional School Counseling, 11, 285–295. doi:10.5330/PSC.n.2010-11.285
 School motivation and high school dropout 39

Tinto, V. (1975). Dropout from higher education: A theoretical synthesis of recent research. Review
of Educational Research, 45, 89–125.
Tinto, V. (1993). Leaving college: Rethinking the causes and cures of student attrition (2nd ed.).
Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Tinto, V. (2003). Learning better together: The impact of learning communities on student
success. Higher Education Monograph Series. New York: Syracuse University.
Trusty, J. (2000). High educational expectations and low achievement: Stability of educational goals
across adolescence. The Journal of Educational Research, 93, 356–365. doi:10.1080/
00220670009598730
Turner, J. E., & Schallert, D. L. (2001). Expectancy-value relationships of shame reactions and shame
resiliency. Journal of Educational Psychology, 98, 320–329. doi:10.1037/0022-0663.93.2.320
Vallerand, R. J., & Bissonnette, R. (1992). Intrinsic, extrinsic, and amotivational styles as predictors
of behavior: A prospective study. Journal of Personality, 60, 599–620. doi:10.1111/
j.1467-6494.1992.tb00922.x
Vallerand, R. J., Fortier, M. S., & Guay, F. (1997). Self-determination and persistence in a real-life
setting: Toward a motivational model of high school dropout. Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, 72, 1161–1176. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.72.5.1161
Wentzel, K. R. (1998). Social relationships and motivation in middle school: The role of parents,
teachers and peers. Journal of Educational Psychology, 90, 202–209. doi:10.1037/
0022-0663.90.2.202
Wigfield, A., Byrnes, J. P., & Eddles, J. S. (2006). Development during early and middle adolescence.
In P. A. Alexander & P. H. Winne (Eds.), Handbook of educational psychology (2nd ed.)
(pp. 87–113). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
Wigfield, A., & Eccles, J. S. (2000). Expectancy–value theory of achievement motivation.
Contemporary Educational Psychology, 25, 68–81. doi:10.1006/ceps.1999.1015
Zimmerman, B. (2000). Self-efficacy: An essential motive to learn. Contemporary Educational
Psychology, 25, 82–91. doi:10.1006/ceps.1999.1016

Received 20 August 2010; revised version received 26 June 2012