P.I.

Industries (PI IN)

Rating: HOLD | CMP: Rs2,036 | TP: Rs2,000

August 6, 2020 Solid results; Keenly watching the Pharma foray

Q1FY21 Result Update Quick Pointers:

☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | ☑ Reco  Headed to fully deploy QIP proceeds of Rs20bn in next 5-6 quarters

Change in Estimates  Domestic business to grow at +20% in FY21

Current Previous
FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E
PI continued its outperformance in Q1’21 with topline/EBITDA/APAT growth
Rating HOLD UNDER REVIEW
Target Price 2,000 - of 41%/51%/44% driven by solid 76% growth in domestic business. The
Sales (Rs. m) 53,420 63,036 52,805 62,310
management continued to maintain positive commentary across CSM and
% Chng. 1.2 1.2
EBITDA (Rs. m) 11,697 14,188 11,564 14,024 domestic segments driven by stable demand outlook, continuous rise in new
% Chng. 1.2 1.2
EPS (Rs.) 55.8 66.6 51.4 62.7
enquiries, entry in pharma value chain and ramp up of molecules & facilities
% Chng. 8.5 6.3 commercialization. It plans to fully deploy QIP proceeds of Rs20bn in the next
5-6 quarters and expects to earn the existing 18-20% RoE over a period of
Key Financials - Standalone time for newer projects as well. We would keenly watch for its foray and
Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E progress into the Pharma value chain as it is likely to be the key determinant
Sales (Rs. m) 33,665 42,284 53,420 63,036
for further rerating. We have increased our topline/EBITDA/APAT estimates
EBITDA (Rs. m) 7,178 9,258 11,697 14,188
Margin (%) 21.3 21.9 21.9 22.5 for FY21 by 1%/5%/29% and for FY22 by 1%/1%/19% to factor in higher income
PAT (Rs. m) 4,566 6,808 8,467 10,111 from investments till the time the amount is deployed for growth purpose. We
EPS (Rs.) 33.1 44.9 55.8 66.6
Gr. (%) 11.3 35.5 24.4 19.4 roll forward to FY23 earnings, change our rating to HOLD (from Under
DPS (Rs.) 4.0 6.6 8.2 9.8 Review) with revised target price of Rs2000 based on 30x FY23 EPS of Rs 67.
Yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
RoE (%) 18.6 17.4 15.2 15.9
RoCE (%) 21.3 16.8 15.5 16.8 To fully deploy QIP proceeds in the next 5-6 quarters: Management plans to
EV/Sales (x) 8.4 6.9 5.4 4.6
fully deploy the QIP proceeds of Rs20bn in the next 5-6 quarters. Most of the funds
EV/EBITDA (x) 39.4 31.5 24.9 20.3
PE (x) 61.5 45.4 36.5 30.5 will be deployed in tangibles assets but the company is looking at multiple
P/BV (x) 10.7 5.9 5.2 4.5 opportunities. They aim to leapfrog its capabilities into newer adjacent verticals
(Nutraceuticals, Imaging, Pharma, etc) & niche technologies while evaluating both
Key Data PIIL.BO | PI IN organic and inorganic growth opportunities.
52-W High / Low Rs.2,055 / Rs.970
Sensex / Nifty 38,025 / 11,200
Market Cap Rs.309bn/ $ 4,122m The management has been working on alternative technologies like electronic
Shares Outstanding 152m chemical, magnetic chemical and pharma’s early intermediates for a while now and
3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.766.26m
lot of work was being done in R&D at Kilo pilot level. PI looks rightly positioned as
it is ready with enhanced technological and R&D capabilities when innovators are
Shareholding Pattern (%)
derisking their sourcing from China.
Promoter’s 51.45
Foreign 11.72
Domestic Institution 19.11
India business to grow at 1.5x the industry growth: Domestic business grew at
Public & Others 17.72
Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) - a staggering 76% in Q1 led by highest ever placement of Nominee Gold. Osheen,
Elite, Cosco, etc. also gained traction. Liquidation has also been very good in Q1.
Stock Performance (%) PI expects domestic business to grow at 1.5x the industry growth but we expect
1M 6M 12M outperformance to be wider. While growth in Kharif is being driven by Nominee
Absolute 24.3 31.7 86.9
Relative 19.3 43.1 81.7 Gold; Awkira and 2 new launches are expected to drive growth in Rabi season.

Prashant Biyani Working on more than 50-60 new enquiries: Demand outlook and commentary
[email protected] | 91-22-66322260 from global customers continue to be positive. New enquiries continue at elevated
levels. PI is working on more than 50-60 enquiries (both agchem & non-agchem) at
any point of time on R&D scale.

August 6, 2020 1
 P.I. Industries

Other Highlights: (1) 276 bps gross margin contraction was due to product and
business mix coupled with lower margin profile of Isagro. (2) It has commenced
supplies of Covid-19 intermediate to its Japanese client (3) Isagro clocked topline
of ~Rs1bn and focusing on horticulture and plantation crops in a big way. The
management plans to double revenue in the next 2 years (4) Market pricing is better
than last year but lower than expected (5) The management feels that while there
is opportunity to expand margins by 150-200 bps, it is currently investing heavily in
R&D, digital, and other avenues to enhance capabilities.

PI continues to clock robust performance

Y/e March Q1FY21 Q1FY20 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY20 QoQ gr. (%) FY21E FY20 YoY gr. (%)
Net Sales 10,601 7,541 40.6 8,552 24.0 45,583 33,665 35.4
Expenditure
Raw Materials 6,146 4,164 47.6 4,550 35.1 23,045 18,474 24.7
% of Net Sales 58.0 55.2 53.2 50.6 54.9
Employee Cost 991 766 29.4 948 4.5 4,011 3,209 25.0
% of Net Sales 9.3 10.2 11.1 8.8 9.5
Other Expenses 1,172 1,097 6.8 1,191 (1.6) 6,131 4,804 27.6
% of Net Sales 11.1 14.5 13.9 13.5 14.3
Total Expenditure 8,309 6,027 37.9 6,689 24.2 33,187 26,487 25.3
EBITDA 2,292 1,514 51.4 1,863 23.0 12,396 7,178 72.7
Margin (%) 21.6 20.1 21.8 27.2 21.3
Depreciation 427 294 45.2 436 (2.1) 1,800 1,367 31.7
EBIT 1,865 1,220 52.9 1,427 30.7 10,596 5,811 82.3
Interest 96 26 269.2 84 14.3 425 170 150.0
Other Income 82 123 (33.3) 68 20.6 1,550 489 217.0
PBT 1,851 1,317 40.5 1,411 31.2 11,721 6,130 91.2
Tax 444 309 43.7 312 42.3 1,895 1,572 20.6
Tax Rate (%) 24.0 23.5 22.1 16.2 25.6
RPAT 1,407 1,008 39.6 1,099 28.0 9,826 4,558 115.6
APAT 1,455 1,008 44.3 1,107 31.4 6,808 4,566 49.1
Adj EPS 10.6 7.3 44.3 8.0 31.4 44.9 33.1 35.5
Source: Company, PL

CSM business will continue to dominate the overall revenue pie

Rs Mn 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21
CSM Segment 3,860 4,380 3,140 3,986 5,410 6,100 5,010 6,390 6,440 6,830 6,140
YoY% 19.5% 1.6% 4.7% 32.0% 40.2% 39.3% 59.6% 52.5% 19.0% 12.0% 22.6%
Sales Mix 71.7% 70.1% 51.9% 55.1% 76.4% 75.8% 66.4% 70.4% 75.8% 79.9% 57.9%
Domestic Segment 1,520 1,870 2,910 3,244 1,670 1,950 2,530 2,690 2,060 1,720 4,480
YoY% -14.1% -4.7% 1.9% 25.2% 9.9% 4.3% -13.1% -11.5% 23.4% -11.7% 76.2%
Sales Mix 28.3% 29.9% 48.1% 44.9% 23.6% 24.2% 33.6% 29.6% 24.2% 20.1% 42.1%
Source: Company, PL

August 6, 2020 2
 P.I. Industries

Strong orderbook despite healthy execution

Orderbook (USD Mn) YoY (RHS)

1600 1500 1500 25%

1350 1400 1400 1400
1400 1300
1150 1150 1150 20%
1200
1000

(Rs m n)
15%
800
600 10%
400
5%
200
0 0%

4QFY18

1QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

2QFY20

3QFY20

1QFY21
2QFY19

1QFY20

Q4FY20
Source: Company, PL

Revenue share from North America has shot up in FY19

FY17 FY18 FY19

42%

39%
38%
37%

45%
34%

40%
31%

35%
24%

30%
25%
14%
14%

20%

10%
15%

8%
6%
10%

4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
5%
0%
India Asia (Other North Australia Europe RoW
than India) America

Source: Company, PL

Timeline of CSM molecule commercialisation count

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E
3 3 3 4 4 3 4
Source: Company, PL

August 6, 2020 3
 P.I. Industries

Financials
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Revenues 33,665 42,284 53,420 63,036 Non-Current Assets

YoY gr. (%) 18.5 25.6 26.3 18.0
Cost of Goods Sold 18,474 22,883 29,242 34,102 Gross Block 22,121 28,492 34,492 40,492
Gross Profit 15,191 19,401 24,178 28,933 Tangibles 21,620 28,244 34,192 39,575
Margin (%) 45.1 45.9 45.3 45.9 Intangibles 501 248 300 917
Employee Cost 3,209 4,011 4,899 5,799
Other Expenses 4,804 6,131 7,582 8,947 Acc: Dep / Amortization 4,374 6,174 8,408 11,032
Tangibles 4,282 6,045 8,231 10,800
EBITDA 7,178 9,258 11,697 14,188 Intangibles 92 130 177 232
YoY gr. (%) 24.5 29.0 26.3 21.3
Margin (%) 21.3 21.9 21.9 22.5 Net fixed assets 17,747 22,318 26,084 29,460
Tangibles 17,338 22,200 25,961 28,775
Depreciation and Amortization 1,367 1,800 2,233 2,624 Intangibles 409 118 123 685

EBIT 5,811 7,458 9,464 11,563 Capital Work In Progress 2,707 2,750 2,775 2,775
Margin (%) 17.3 17.6 17.7 18.3 Goodwill 828 828 828 828
Non-Current Investments 322 385 413 437
Net Interest 170 425 425 425 Net Deferred tax assets (102) (102) (102) (102)
Other Income 489 1,550 2,080 2,138 Other Non-Current Assets 411 529 641 756

Profit Before Tax 6,130 8,583 11,119 13,276 Current Assets

Margin (%) 18.2 20.3 20.8 21.1 Investments 1,325 - - -
Inventories 7,989 7,878 10,245 12,089
Total Tax 1,572 1,895 2,802 3,346 Trade receivables 6,465 9,731 12,148 14,334
Effective tax rate (%) 25.6 22.1 25.2 25.2 Cash & Bank Balance 1,342 21,917 22,750 25,802
Other Current Assets 2,716 3,728 4,441 5,056
Profit after tax 4,558 6,688 8,317 9,931 Total Assets 42,248 70,570 80,965 92,294
Minority interest - - - -
Share Profit from Associate 8 120 150 180 Equity
Equity Share Capital 138 152 152 152
Adjusted PAT 4,566 6,808 8,467 10,111 Other Equity 26,053 52,104 59,318 67,898
YoY gr. (%) 11.3 49.1 24.4 19.4 Total Networth 26,191 52,256 59,469 68,049
Margin (%) 13.6 16.1 15.8 16.0
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - - Non-Current Liabilities
Long Term borrowings 3,994 5,000 5,000 5,000
Reported PAT 4,566 6,808 8,467 10,111 Provisions 124 338 427 504
YoY gr. (%) 11.3 49.1 24.4 19.4 Other non current liabilities - - - -
Margin (%) 13.6 16.1 15.8 16.0
Current Liabilities
Other Comprehensive Income - - - - ST Debt / Current of LT Debt 1,083 - - -
Total Comprehensive Income 4,566 6,808 8,467 10,111 Trade payables 5,909 7,646 9,660 11,398
Equity Shares O/s (m) 138 152 152 152 Other current liabilities 4,013 4,395 5,475 6,408
EPS (Rs) 33.1 44.9 55.8 66.6 Total Equity & Liabilities 42,248 70,569 80,966 92,294
Source: Company Data, PL Research Source: Company Data, PL Research

August 6, 2020 4
 P.I. Industries

Cash Flow (Rs m) Key Financial Metrics

Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Year
Y/e Mar FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

PBT 6,138 8,583 11,119 13,276 Per Share(Rs)

Add. Depreciation 1,367 1,800 2,233 2,624 EPS 33.1 44.9 55.8 66.6
Add. Interest 170 425 425 425 CEPS 43.0 56.7 70.5 83.9
Less Financial Other Income 489 1,550 2,080 2,138 BVPS 189.9 344.4 392.0 448.5
Add. Other 99 (1,550) (2,080) (2,138) FCF 1.7 1.9 2.8 18.6
Op. profit before WC changes 7,774 9,258 11,697 14,188 DPS 4.0 6.6 8.2 9.8
Net Changes-WC 255 (1,443) (2,525) (2,080) Return Ratio(%)
Direct tax (1,048) (1,157) (2,746) (3,279) RoCE 21.3 16.8 15.5 16.8
Net cash from Op. activities 6,981 6,659 6,426 8,829 ROIC 17.5 26.0 18.6 20.1
Capital expenditures (6,695) (6,371) (6,000) (6,000) RoE 18.6 17.4 15.2 15.9
Interest / Dividend Income 175 1,550 2,080 2,138 Balance Sheet
Others 1,014 1,325 - - Net Debt : Equity (x) 0.1 (0.3) (0.3) (0.3)
Net Cash from Invt. activities (5,506) (3,496) (3,920) (3,862) Net Working Capital (Days) 93 86 87 87
Issue of share cap. / premium 80 20,000 - - Valuation(x)
Debt changes 3,886 (1,160) - - PER 61.5 45.4 36.5 30.5
Dividend paid (748) (1,003) (1,248) (1,490) P/B 10.7 5.9 5.2 4.5
Interest paid (179) (425) (425) (425) P/CEPS 47.3 35.9 28.9 24.3
Others - - - - EV/EBITDA 39.4 31.5 24.9 20.3
Net cash from Fin. activities 3,039 17,412 (1,673) (1,915) EV/Sales 8.4 6.9 5.4 4.6
Net change in cash 4,514 20,575 833 3,052 Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Free Cash Flow 238 288 426 2,829 Source: Company Data, PL Research
Source: Company Data, PL Research

Quarterly Financials (Rs m)

Y/e Mar Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21
Net Revenue 9,074 8,498 8,552 10,601
YoY gr. (%) 25.5 20.1 6.3 40.6
Raw Material Expenses 5,223 4,537 4,550 6,146
Gross Profit 3,851 3,961 4,002 4,455
Margin (%) 42.4 46.6 46.8 42.0
EBITDA 1,919 1,865 1,863 2,292
YoY gr. (%) 42.6 25.5 7.4 51.4
Margin (%) 21.1 21.9 21.8 21.6
Depreciation / Depletion 315 319 436 427
EBIT 1,604 1,546 1,427 1,865
Margin (%) 17.7 18.2 16.7 17.6
Net Interest 22 38 84 96
Other Income 106 191 68 82
Profit before Tax 1,688 1,699 1,411 1,851
Margin (%) 18.6 20.0 16.5 17.5
Total Tax 460 487 312 444
Effective tax rate (%) 27.3 28.7 22.1 24.0
Profit after Tax 1,228 1,212 1,099 1,407
Minority interest - - - -
Share Profit from Associates - (1) 8 48
Adjusted PAT 1,228 1,211 1,107 1,455
YoY gr. (%) 30.1 12.9 (11.9) 44.3
Margin (%) 13.5 14.3 12.9 13.7
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - -
Reported PAT 1,228 1,211 1,107 1,455
YoY gr. (%) 30.1 12.9 (11.9) 44.3
Margin (%) 13.5 14.3 12.9 13.7
Other Comprehensive Income - - - -
Total Comprehensive Income 1,228 1,211 1,107 1,455
Avg. Shares O/s (m) 138 138 138 138
EPS (Rs) 8.9 8.8 8.0 10.6
Source: Company Data, PL Research

August 6, 2020 5
 P.I. Industries

Price Chart Recommendation History

(Rs)
No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)
1800
1 07-Jul-20 UR - 1,666

1523 2 09-Jun-20 Hold 1,544 1,594

3 16-Apr-20 Hold 1,430 1,454
1246
4 13-Feb-20 Hold 1,516 1,545
969 5 03-Jan-20 Hold 1,355 1,444
6 29-Oct-19 Hold 1,355 1,401
692

Jul - 20
Aug - 17

Aug - 18

Aug - 19
Feb - 18

Feb - 19

Jan - 20
7 03-Oct-19 BUY 1,278 1,300
8 30-Sep-19 BUY 1,278 1,329

Analyst Coverage Universe

Sr. No. Company Name Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)
1 Bayer Cropscience BUY 6,010 5,984
2 Dhanuka Agritech Hold 857 894
3 Godrej Agrovet Accumulate 513 470
4 Insecticides India BUY 612 417
5 P.I. Industries UR - 1,666
6 Rallis India Accumulate 321 303
7 Sharda Cropchem Accumulate 254 273
8 Sumitomo Chemical India Accumulate 267 280
9 UPL BUY 606 478

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy : > 15%
Accumulate : 5% to 15%
Hold : +5% to -5%
Reduce : -5% to -15%
Sell : < -15%
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

August 6, 2020 6
 P.I. Industries

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Date: 2020.08.06 21:48:11 +05'30'