United in Science 2020

A multi-organization high-level compilation of the latest

climate science information
This report has been compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) under the direction of the
United Nations Secretary-General to bring together the latest climate science related updates from a group
of key global partner organizations – WMO, Global Carbon Project (GCP), UNESCO Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO-IOC), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), UN
Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Met Office. The content of each chapter is attributable to each
respective organization.

The report is available electronically at: public.wmo.int/en/resources/united_in_science

Cover Illustration: Massive wildfire in the Sakha Republic, Russia, on 20 July 2020. Contains modified
Copernicus Sentinel data [2020]/Sentinel Hub/Processed by Pierre Markuse

Lead authors and contributors:

Overall coordination and editing by WMO: Jürg Luterbacher, Laura Paterson, Kate Solazzo and Sylvie
Castonguay (Editor).

Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in the Atmosphere (Global Atmosphere Watch, GAW): Oksana Tarasova
(WMO), Alex Vermeulen (Lund University, Sweden).

Global Fossil CO2 emissions (GCP): Josep G Canadell (CSIRO, Australia), Robert B Jackson (Stanford
University, USA), Robbie M Andrew (CICERO, Norway), Pierre Friedlingstein (University of Exeter, UK),
Matthew W Jones (University of East Anglia, UK), Corinne Le Quéré (University of East Anglia, UK), Glen P
Peters (CICERO, Norway), Benjamin Poulter (NASA, USA), Marielle Saunois (LSCE-IPSL, France), Ann
Stavert (CSIRO, Australia).

Global Climate in 2016-2020 (WMO): Omar Baddour (WMO), Anny Cazenave (Laboratoire d’Etudes en
Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and Observatoire Midi-
Pyrénées, France), Matthias Huss (ETH Zurich, Switzerland), John Kennedy (UK Met Office, UK), Peter
Siegmund (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, KNMI, Netherland), Blair Trewin (Bureau of
Meteorology, BoM, Australia), Markus Ziese (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD, Germany).

Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (IPCC): Valérie Masson-Delmotte (IPCC WGI co-chair), with
inputs from Sarah Connors (WGI TSU, University Paris Saclay, France), Panmao Zhai (IPCC WGI co-chair),
Hans-Otto Pörtner (IPCC WGII co-chair) and Debra Roberts (IPCC WGII co-chair).

Water and Cryosphere (WMO): Johannes Cullmann (WMO), Rodica Nitu (WMO), Lijuan Ma (WMO), Bruce
Stewart (WMO), Thomas Lavergne (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway), Petra Heil (Australian
Antarctic Division, Australia), Tandong Yao (ITPR-CAS, Institute for Tibetan Plateau Research – Chinese
Academy of Sciences, China).

Global Climate in 2020–2024 (WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, led by UK Met Office): Adam
Scaife (UK Met Office), Leon Hermanson (UK Met Office), Doug Smith (UK Met Office)

Emissions Gap (UNEP): Anne Olhoff (UNEP DTU Partnership), John Christensen (UNEP DTU Partnership),
Maarten Kappelle (UNEP), Jian Liu (UNEP).

Earth System Observations during COVID-19 (UNESCO-IOC and WMO): Emma Heslop (UNESCO-IOC)
Albert Fischer (UNESCO-IOC), Salvatore Arico (UNESCO-IOC), Vladimir Ryabinin (UNESCO-IOC), Valentin
Aich (WMO), Anthony Rea (WMO), Dean Lockett (WMO), Timo Pröscholdt (WMO).
Foreword by António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations

This has been an unprecedented year for people and This report by the United Nations
planet. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted lives and global scientific partner
worldwide. At the same time, the heating of our planet and organizations, provides an update
climate disruption has continued apace. Record heat, ice one year from the first United in
loss, wildfires, floods and droughts continue to worsen, Science report, which was
affecting communities, nations and economies around the launched to inform the United
world. Furthermore, due to the amount of greenhouse Nations Climate Action Summit
gases emitted in the past century, the planet is already 2019.
locked into future significant heating.
United in Science 2020 presents a
The solution to slowing down the rate of global unified assessment of the state of
temperature rise and keeping it below 1.5°C is for nations our Earth system, detailing how
to dramatically cut emissions, with the aim of achieving emissions have evolved in 2020,
carbon neutrality by 2050. While emissions fell during the and providing projections for the
peak of the pandemic confinement measures, they have critical years ahead. The report further addresses key
already mostly recovered to within 5 per cent of the same thematic issues on the front lines of climate change, such
period in 2019 and are likely to increase further. This as water, oceans and the cryosphere and highlights the
report stresses that short-term lockdowns are no vulnerability of land-based, marine and air observing
substitute for the sustained climate action that is needed systems which are essential to underpin our understanding
to enable us to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement on of climate science.
Climate Change.
We need science, solidarity and solutions to tackle both the
Never before has it been so clear that we need long-term, COVID-19 pandemic and the climate crisis. I urge leaders to
inclusive, clean transitions to tackle the climate crisis and heed the facts contained in this report, unite behind the
achieve sustainable development. We must turn the science and take urgent climate action to set a path towards
recovery from the pandemic into a real opportunity to build a safer, more sustainable future for all.
a better future.

In order to do that, governments need consistent and solid

science, backed by the strong collaboration of scientific
institutions and academia, to underpin policy decisions
that can tackle the greatest challenges of our time. A. Guterres, Secretary-General UN

Foreword by Prof. Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization

2020 has been a remarkable year in many ways. Not United in Science 2020 delivers on
least of course because of the global pandemic, this mission, presenting the very
impacting lives and livelihoods across the planet like latest scientific data and findings
never before. This year has also been remarkable in related to climate change, relevant
terms or our climate, continuing the trend we have seen to this unprecedented year. This
in recent decades. report is an example of the
international scientific community’s
Greenhouse gas concentrations – which are already at commitment to strategic
their highest levels in 3 million years – have continued to collaboration in order to advance
rise, reaching new record highs this year. Meanwhile, the use of scientific evidence in
large swathes of Siberia have seen a prolonged and global policy, discourse and action.
remarkable heatwave during the first half of 2020, which
would have been almost impossible without I would like to thank the many
anthropogenic climate change. And now 2016–2020 is expert teams of our scientific
set to be the warmest five-year period on record. This partners for their contributions to this report – Global Carbon
report shows that whilst many aspects of our lives have Project, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
been disrupted in 2020, climate change has continued the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of
unabated. UNESCO, UN Environment Programme and the Met Office.
Thanks to their excellent collaboration, the climate science
Despite the challenges that 2020 has brought, the community are able to unite to provide policymakers all over
scientific community has continued its important work at the world with the latest essential information in these
pace. They are collaborating in new and innovative ways unprecedented times.
with an important mission in mind: to provide a robust,
authoritative scientific evidence base for decision-makers
around the world.

P. Taalas, Secretary-General WMO

Key Messages

Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in the Atmosphere – Global Atmosphere Watch

• Concentrations of the major greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4, and N2O

continued to increase in 2019 and 2020.

• Overall emissions reductions in 2020 will lead to

a small reduction in the annual increase of
the atmospheric concentrations of
long-lived greenhouse gases.

• Sustained reductions in emissions

are required to stabilize global
warming.

Global Fossil CO2 Emissions

– Global Carbon Project
• Global fossil CO2 emissions
reached a new record high
of 36.7 Gigatonnes (Gt) in
2019, 62% higher than in
1990.

• CO2 emissions will decline

in 2020 due to confinement
policies imposed in many
countries. At their lowest point,
in April, daily CO2 emissions were
approximately at the level they were
in 2006, and 2020 emissions overall are
estimated to decline by 4% to 7% compared to
2019 levels.

• Global CH4 emissions from human activities have continued to increase over the past decade. Current emissions of
both CO2 and CH4 are not compatible with emissions pathways consistent with limiting global warming at 1.5 °C or
well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal of the Paris Agreement.

Global Climate in 2016–2020 – WMO

• The 5-year period from 2016–2020 is expected to be the warmest on record with an average global mean surface
temperature of 1.1 °C above pre-industrial era (1850–1900).

• Arctic sea-ice continues its long-term downward trend. Global mean sea-level has been rising faster than the
long-term trend. A greater loss of ice mass from the ice sheets contributed to an increased sea-level rise.

• Major impacts have been caused by extreme weather and climate events. A clear fingerprint of human-induced
climate change has been identified on many of these extreme events.

2
Key Messages

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Human-induced climate change is affecting life-sustaining systems, from the top of the mountains to the depths of
the oceans, leading to accelerating sea-level rise, with cascading effects for ecosystems and human security.
• Impacts from climate-related changes in the ocean and cryosphere increasingly challenge efforts to develop and
implement adaptation and integrated risk management responses.

Water and Cryosphere – WMO

• Water is a key commodity that sustains livelihoods – water shortages for human consumption, food production and
energy supply are major roadblocks for the Sustainable Development Agenda.

• Water is a threat – floods and droughts account for 90% of impacts of natural disasters worldwide.

• Water is key for adaptation - climate change impacts are most felt through changing hydrological conditions
including changes in rainfall, snow and ice dynamics.

Global Climate in 2020–2024 – WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update

• There is a growing chance of annual global mean near surface temperature temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C above
the 1850–1900 pre-industrial level, being ~20% in the 5-year period ending in 2024.

• There is a high risk of unusual regional rainfall over the period, with some regions experiencing increasing drought-
related risks and others increased risks associated with heavy rainfall.

• Within the next 5 years, the Arctic is predicted to continue to warm at more than twice the overall global rate.

Emissions Gap – UN Environment Programme

• The Emissions Gap in 2030 is estimated at 12–15 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO2e to limit global warming to below 2 °C
above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. For the 1.5 °C goal, the gap is estimated at 29–32 GtCO2e,
roughly equivalent to the combined emissions of the six largest emitters.

• It is still possible to bridge the Emissions Gap – but this will require urgent and concerted action by all countries
and across all sectors.

• Looking beyond the 2030 timeframe, new technological solutions and gradual change in consumption patterns are
needed at all levels. Transformational action can no longer be postponed.

Earth System Observations during COVID-19 – UNESCO-IOC and WMO

• The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant impacts on land-based, marine and air observing systems, which is
affecting the quality of forecasts and climate services.

• The pandemic demonstrated the vulnerability of components of the global observing system for weather, water,
climate and environment and the need for investment to address this; it also demonstrated the resilience of a
system-of-systems approach.

3
Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in the Atmosphere -
Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW)

Global levels of greenhouse gases

Levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) continue to rise. Preliminary analysis of
the data from a subset of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) observational network of the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch
(GAW) Programme demonstrated that CO2 concentrations in the northern hemisphere exceeded 410 parts per million (ppm)
during the first half of 2020.

A full analysis of the three main GHGs (Figure 1) shows the globally averaged atmospheric concentrations1 of CO2 at
407.8 ±0.1 ppm, CH4 at 1869 ±2 ppb and N 2O at 331.1 ±0.1 ppb for 2018. The annual increases of the three GHGs (147%
for CO2, 259% for CH4 and 123% N 2O relative to pre-industrial, 1750) were larger in 2018 than the increases in the previous
year and the 10-year averaged rate of increase (WMO, 2019).

Figure 1. (upper row) Globally averaged CO2, CH4 and N2O mole fraction in ppm (CO2) and ppb (CH4; N2O, respectively) and its growth rate (lower row) from
1984 to 2018. Increases in successive annual means are shown as the shaded columns in (lower row). The red line in (upper row) is the monthly mean with
the seasonal variation removed; the blue dots and line depict the monthly averages.

Global average figures for 2019 will not Figure 2. Monthly mean CO2
mole fraction in ppm at
be available until late 2020, but data Mauna L o a observatory from
from all global locations, including March 1958 to July 2020. The
flagship observatories – GAW Global dashed red line represents the
monthly mean values, centered on
stations Mauna Loa (Hawaii) and Cape the middle of each month. The
Grim (Tasmania) – indicate that levels of black l i n e represents the
CO 2, CH4 and N 2O continued to s a m e , a f t e r correction for the
average seasonal cycle. Source:
increase in 2019 and 2020 (Figures 2 www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
and 3). In July 2020, CO2 concentration mlo.html
at Mauna Loa and Cape Grim
reached 414.38 ppm and 410.04 ppm,
respectively, in comparison with 411.74
ppm, and 407.83 ppm in July 2019.

1
For simplicity of communication the physical quantity related to the amount of gases in the atmosphere (dry mole fraction) is referred to in the text as
concentration

4
Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in the Atmosphere -
Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW)

Concentration variability and COVID-19 410

CO2 mole fraction at Cape Crim, Tasmania

There is substantial variability in the levels of GHGs within 400

individual years (seasonal cycle), between years and 390

across geographical regions. The seasonal cycle in the 380

northern hemisphere is mainly dominated by the land

Mole fraction, ppm

370

biosphere, and it is characterized by rapid decreases –

360

down to 5 to 20 ppm from June to August – and equally

350
rapid increases from September to December. The
variability of CO2 in the northern hemisphere is larger than in 340

the southern hemisphere because most CO2 sources and 330

sinks are located in the northern hemisphere. The seasonal 320

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06.2020
cycle is larger in amplitude in the northern high and mid- month-year

latitudes of the northern hemisphere and smaller in the

southern hemisphere due to the large variability in the
Figure 3. Monthly mean CO2 mole fraction in ppm from May 1976 to July
natural carbon cycle in northern latitudes. Large-scale 2020 at Cape Grim observatory.
spatial gradients exist for CH4 and N2O as well.

The Global Carbon Project (Friedlingstein et al., 2019) estimated that total emissions were partitioned in the atmosphere
(44%), ocean (23%) and land (29%), with an unattributed budget imbalance (4%) over the decade of 2009–2018.
While the increase of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere is driven by human emissions, the interannual changes in the
atmospheric CO2 increase rates are modulated by the variability of the sinks, and especially of the land-based biosphere. CO2
growth rate was between 2 and 3 ppm per year within the last 10 years, with the highest increase rate of 3.2 ppm observed in
2016, during the most recent El Niño (WMO, 2016). El Niño typically reduces the intake of CO2 from the atmosphere
by vegetation, due the increased extent of droughts over land surfaces.
The estimated decline for 2020 due to the COVID-19 shutdown (4%–7% compared to 2019 levels, according to the Global
Carbon Project) would result in a final change of 0.08 ppm to 0.23 ppm in the annual growth rate, well within the 1 ppm natural
interannual variability.

The GAW network of surface stations can resolve global changes of atmospheric CO2 over a year within 0.1 ppm of precision.
To distinguish between natural and anthropogenic CO2 sources and sinks, the measurements of the stable isotope Carbon-14
(14C) in CO2 can be used (WMO, 2019). Though rare, such measurements are now being made in several cities and regions
around the world, but lab analysis of discrete samples is time consuming.

Long time series are required for robust statistics and complex data modelling using data assimilation techniques in order to
differentiate the fossil fuel signal from natural CO2 variability. Emission changes of the order of 10% to 20% are hard to
quantify with certainty unless measurements are taken within about 10 km of the fossil fuel emission sources. An example of
the significant changes that can be measured within cities (such as proposed in the WMO Integrated Global
Greenhouse Gas Information System, ig3is.wmo.int) is shown in the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS)
2020 where reductions in emissions of up to 75% were measured in the city centres of Basel, Florence, Helsinki, Heraklion,
London and Pesaro, using eddy covariance techniques that directly measure vertical exchange fluxes within a
circumference several kilometres from the measurement point.

References
Friedlingstein, P. et al. 2019: Global Carbon Budget 2019. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019.
ICOS, 2020: ICOS study shows clear reduction in urban CO2 emissions as a result of Covid-19 lockdown. www.icos-cp.eu/event/933, accessed 2 June 2020.
WMO, 2016: WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 12: The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2015. library.wmo.int/
doc_num.php?explnum_id=3084
WMO, 2019: WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 15: The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2018. library.wmo.int/
index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21620

5
Global Fossil CO2 Emissions

Global fossil fuel emissions in 2019 were slightly higher than in 2018, with record emissions of 36.7 Gigatonnes (Gt = billion
metric tonnes) of carbon dioxide (CO2) (Figure 1). Emissions growth has slowed to around 1% per year in the last decade,
down from 3% annual growth during the 2000s. The near-zero growth seen in 2019 gives hope that the CO2 emissions trend is
stabilizing, and that a decline is on the horizon. Nonetheless, stable or slightly declining emissions were seen earlier in the
2010s and, disappointingly, have not endured. Total fossil CO2 emissions are now 62% higher than emissions at the
time international climate negotiations began in 1990.

Slower emissions growth in 2019 was driven by a decline in coal emissions (–1.7%; with respect to changes between 2018
and 2019), particularly in the United States and Europe, and growth in renewable energy globally. However, offsetting
these reductions was the continued and steady growth in CO2 emissions from the combustion of natural gas (2.0%) and oil
(0.8%).
An additional 5.5 Gt CO2 per year on average (2009–2018) are
added to the atmosphere from the net impact of land use
change (e.g. deforestation, degradation, reforestation).
Emissions in 2019 were estimated to be 6.2 Gt CO2, above the
long-term average due to excess fires in tropical regions,
particularly in the Amazon. Total anthropogenic CO2
emissions in 2019, fossil and land use change, were 42.9
±2.8 Gt CO2.

Emissions in 2020 will show unprecedented changes because

of the social and economic turmoil unleashed by the COVID-19
pandemic. Early estimates for fossil CO2 emissions in
2020 show a decline attributable to confinement measures
to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Figure 1. Global fossil CO2 emissions with a preliminary estimate
for 2019. Updated from Friedlingstein et al. (2019) and from Peters
et al. (2020).
During peak confinement in early April 2020, we estimate that
daily global fossil CO2 emissions dropped 17% compared to
mean daily estimates in 2019 (Figure 2). Although such
a drop appears to be unprecedented, the amount
emitted at peak confinement was still equivalent to
emissions in 2006, just a decade and a half ago. This fact
highlights both the steep growth in emissions over the past
15 years and the continued dependence of the global economy
on fossil sources for energy.

By early June 2020, global daily fossil CO2 emissions

had mostly recovered to within 5% (1%–8% range) compared to
the same period in 2019, showing the rapid return of emissions, Figure 2. Global Daily fossil CO2 emissions. Updated from Le Quéré
et al. (2020).
as many countries loosened their confinement restrictions.

The projected emissions decline for year 2020 will depend on

the continued trajectory of the pandemic and government
responses to address it. We estimate a decline for
2020 approximately in the range of 4% to 7% compared to
2019 levels, depending on different pandemic scenarios.

Surface transport, mainly road transport, contributed the most to

the peak decline in early April, followed by industry, the power
sector, aviation, public buildings and commerce (Figure 3).

This range of emission reductions we project for 2020 is similar

in magnitude to the year-on-year emission reductions needed to
limit global warming to 1.5 °C, and well below 2 °C, in line
Figure 3. Global daily fossil CO2 emissions for six sectors of
with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. the economy. Updated from Le Quéré et al. (2020).
6
 Global Fossil CO2 Emissions

Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas attributable to human activities after CO2. Both emissions and
atmospheric concentrations of CH4 have continued to grow for decades, albeit with a short period of relative stabilization from
2000 to 2006. Since then, both agriculture, particularly livestock, and fossil fuels, particularly the natural gas and oil
sectors followed by coal mining, have been roughly equally responsible for the emissions growth.

Recent analyses also show that

neither changes in CH4
emissions from wetlands, which
account for one third of global
emissions, nor changes in the
methane sink strength can
explain to any significant
degree the observed
atmospheric increase. These
findings underscore the
dominant role of human
activities in the atmospheric
loading of CH4, contributing
60% of global emissions overall
(Figure 4).
Current trends in emissions of
CO2 and CH4 are not
compatible with emission
Figure 4. Global CH4 Budget for 2017 including all major natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks.
pathways consistent with From Jackson et al. (2020) and Saunois et al. (2020).
limiting global warming at
1.5 °C or well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal of the Paris Agreement (Figure 5).
Unless emissions peak and decline soon, temperature stabilization well below 2 °C will be unlikely. The extent to which world
leaders consider climate objectives in their economic responses to COVID-19 is likely to influence the pathway of CO2
emissions for decades to come.

Figure 5. Estimated fossil CO2 and CH4 emissions from all human activities presented against the socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to 2050

References
Friedlingstein, P. et al. 2019: Global Carbon Budget 2019, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019
Peters, G.P. et al. 2020. Carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow amidst slowly emerging climate policies. Nat.Clim.Change, 10, 3–6 https://www.nature.com/articles/
s41558-019-0659-6
Le Quéré, C. et al. 2020: Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement. Nat. Clim. Change, 14:121001.
doi.org\10.1038\s41558-020-0797-x
Saunois, M. et al. 2020: The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020.
Jackson, R. B. et al. 2020: Increasing anthropogenic methane emissions arise equally from agricultural and fossil fuel sources. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 071002, https://
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9ed2
7
 Global Climate in 2016–2020

2016–2020 set to be warmest five-year period on record

The average global mean surface temperature1 for 2016–2020 (2020 data are based on averages January to July) will be
among the warmest of any equivalent period on record (Figure 1). It is currently estimated to be 1.1 °C (±0.1°C) above
pre-industrial2 (1850–1900) times and 0.24 °C (±0.10°C) warmer than the global mean surface temperature for 2011–2015.

Figure 1: Five-year running average of global temperature anomalies (relative to pre-industrial) from 1854 to 2020 for five data sets: HadCRUT.4.6.0.0,
NOAA GlobalTemp v5, GISTEMP v4, ERA5, and JRA-55. Data for 2020 to June for HadCRUT4, and July for NOAAGlobalTemp, GISTEMP, ERA5 and JRA-55.

The 2016–2020 five-year average

temperatures are on course to be the
highest on record for much of Europe, the
Middle East and northern Asia, southern
and eastern areas of the US, areas of
South America, southern Africa and
Australia (Figure 2). However, exceptional
warmth in the first half of 2020 is
likely to ease as the year progresses.  

Global sea-level rise is

Figure 2: 2016-2020 five-year average temperature anomalies relative to the 1981-2010
increasing average. Data are from NASA GISTEMP v4. Data for 2020 to July.
The total elevation of the global mean sea-
level over the altimetry era (since
January 1993) has reached 90 mm. The
average rate of rise is estimated to be
3.2 ±0.3mm/yr over the 27-year period
(Figure 3). The rate between 2011–2015
and 2016–2020 has increased from 4.1
mm/yr to 4.8 mm/yr. A greater loss of ice
mass from the ice sheets is the
main cause of the increased rise in the
global mean sea-level on top of
steady increases from the expansion of
ocean waters driven by warming.
According to IPCC (2019)3 the
average rate of rise for 2006-2015 is 3
to 4 mm/yr, which is about 2.5 times
the rate for 1901–1990 of 1 to 2 mm/yr.
1Baseline
Figure 3. Time series of altimetry-based global mean sea level for the period 1993–16 July
information can be found at: https://library.wmo.int/
2020. The thin black line is a quadratic function showing the mean sea-level rise
doc_num.php?explnum_id=5789#page=10 acceleration. (Source: European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative sea-level data
until December 2015, extended by data from the Copernicus Marine Service as of January
8
2Baseline information on datasets can be found at https://
library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10211#page=37 2016 and near real-time Jason-3 as of March 2020).
Global Climate in 2016–2020

Sea-ice extent has declined at a rate of 13%

per decade
Arctic (as well as sub-Arctic) sea ice has seen a long-term decline
in all months during the satellite era (1979–present), with the
largest relative losses in late summer, around the time of the
annual minimum in September, with regional variations. The long-
term trend over the 1979–2019 period indicates that Arctic summer
sea-ice extent has declined at a rate of approximately 13% per
decade (Figure 4). In every year from 2016 to 2020, the Arctic
average summer minimum and average winter maximum sea-
ice extent were below the 1981–2010 long term average. In July
2020, the Arctic sea-ice extent was the lowest on record for
Figure 4. Monthly September and March Arctic sea-ice extent
July. There is very high confidence that Arctic sea-ice extent anomalies (relative to the 1981–2010 average) for 1979– 2019
continues to decline in all months of the year and that since 1979, (Sources: US National Snow and Ice Data Center and EUMETSAT
Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility)
the areal proportion of thick ice, at least 5 years old, has
declined by approximately 90%3. In Antarctica, a remarkable feature of both the February minimum and September maximum
has been that sea-ice extent values have fallen well below the 1981–2010 average since 2016. The summer sea ice
reached its lowest and second lowest extent on record in 2017 and 2018, respectively, with 2018 also being the second
lowest winter extent.

One-metre water equivalent glacier ice loss per year

Analysis of long-term variations in glacier mass changes from the European Alps, Scandinavia and the Rocky Mountains
provide direct information on the year-to-year variability in these regions. Preliminary estimates for 2018/2019 indicate a
negative mass balance with an ice loss of > 1.0 m water equivalent (w.e). Eight out of the 10 most negative mass balance
years were recorded after 20104. For the period 2016–2019 data from the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS)4
reference glaciers indicate an average specific mass change of −943 mm5 w.e. per year. This depicts a greater mass loss than
in all other past five-year periods since 1950.

Ice sheets losing ice

Loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has
increased since the beginning of the 21st century. The
combined sea level rise contribution from both ice sheets
for 2012–2016 was 1.2 ±0.1 mm yr–1, a 29% increase on
2002–2011. From Antarctica, the 2012–2016 losses are
estimated to –199 ±26 Gt yr–1 and the amount of ice lost
annually from the Antarctic ice sheet increased at least six-fold
between 1979 and 20176. Most of the ice loss takes place
by melting of the ice shelves from below, due to incursions
of relatively warm ocean water, especially in west
Antarctica and to a lesser extent along the peninsula
and in east Antarctica.

Between 2006 and 2015, the Greenland Ice Sheet lost ice
Figure 5. SMB for the year 1 September 2018 to 31 August 2019.
mass at an average rate of 278 ±11 Gt yr–1 (equivalent to 0.77 Accumulated sum over the year. 2018/2019 is in blue, and the grey
±0.03 mm yr–1 of global sea level rise), mostly due to line is the long-term average. For comparison, 2011/2012, the record
year is shown in red.
surface melting.7 The total accumulated Surface Mass

3IPCC, 2019: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, et al. (eds.)], in press
4WGMS data and products can be found at https://wgms.ch/global-glacier-state/
5A value of -1.0 m w.e. per year is representing a mass loss of 1,000 kg/m2 of ice cover or an annual glacier-wide ice thickness loss of about 1.1 m per year, as the density
of ice is only 0.9 times the density of water (source: WGMS)
6Rignot,
E. et al. 2019: Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017. Proc. of the Nat. Acad. of Sci. of the USA (PNAS, 116, 1095–1103. https://
www.pnas.org/content/pnas/116/4/1095.full.pdf)
7IPCC,
9
2019: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, et al. (eds.)], in press
Global Climate in 2016–2020

Balance (SMB)8 between September 2018 and August 2019 (Figure 5) was
169 Gt compared to 368 Gt average SMB over the 1981–2010 period.
2018/2019 SMB ranks as the 7th lowest on record. The surface mass balance
was below normal almost everywhere in Greenland except for the southeast
(Figure 6). This was mainly due to a dry winter, a very early start of the
melting season and a long, dry, warm summer. More recent SMB data
shows that the 2019/2020 season is close to the 1981–2010 average.

High Impact Events influenced by anthropogenic climate

change

Recently published peer reviewed studies show a significant anthropogenic

influence on many of the occurred events, either directly, or indirectly (through,
for example, influencing atmospheric circulation patterns that contributed to
the event). This section focuses on a selection of such events from the 2016–
2020 period.
While few anthropogenic signals have been found in tropical cyclone intensity
and frequency9, recent evidence suggests that anthropogenic influence has
increased the probability of higher rainfall amount associated with tropical
cyclones. During 2016–2020, the largest economic losses were associated
with tropical cyclones. Hurricane Harvey, one of the most devastating
hurricanes on record, causing more than US$ 125 billion in losses, hit
the Houston (USA) area in 2017 – human influence increased the Figure 6. Map showing SMB anomaly (in mm) across
Greenland (Source: Polar Portal, polarportal.dk/en)
amount of rainfall associated with this hurricane by about 15%10.
Tropical Cyclones Idai and Kenneth hit Mozambique in March and April 2019 causing a large loss of life.

Since 2016, droughts have had major impacts, both on society and the economy, in numerous parts of the world.
In Africa millions of people required assistance after drought-related food shortages. In east Africa in
2016/2017, 6.7 million people in Somalia were food insecure at the drought's peak. Drought returned to many
parts of southern Africa in 2018/2019, with Zimbabwe amongst the worst-affected areas. Some droughts show
a direct or indirect human influence, including the 2016/2017 East African drought which was strongly
influenced by warm sea-surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, to which anthropogenic influences on
climate.

Drought and heatwaves substantially increased the risk of wildfires. The three largest economic losses on record
from wildfires have all occurred in the last four years. Summer 2019 and 2020 saw unprecedented wildfires in
the Arctic region. In June 2019, these fires emitted 50 Mt of CO2 into the atmosphere11.The unusual heat
contributed to wide-scale wildfires and the loss of permafrost. The results of a recent attribution study showed with
high confidence that the January to June 2020 heat is at least 600 times more likely as a result of human-induced
climate change12. In 2019 and 2020 there were also widespread fires in the Amazon rainforest, with dramatic environmental
impacts.

Eastern Australia experienced a severe and prolonged wildfire season in late 2019, with major fires in
early September that continued into early 2020. More than 10 million hectares were burnt over an area extending
from southern Queensland to eastern Victoria, while other major fires occurred in South Australia. At least
33 deaths were reported, and preliminary assessments indicate economic losses of several billion US dollars.
The likelihood of the weather conditions that led to those wildfires has increased by at least 30% since 1900, as a
result of anthropogenic climate change13.

8WMO, 2020: State of the global climate in 2019, WMO-No.1248; https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21700#.Xy7lrigzY2w

9IPCC, 2019: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, et al. (eds.)], in press
10van Oldenborgh, G.J. et al. 2017: Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environ. Res. Lett. , 12:124009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/
aa9ef2 11Baseline information can be found at: https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/cams-monitors-unprecedented-wildfires-arctic
12Baseline information can be found at: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Prolonged-heat-Siberia-2020.pdf
13van Oldenborgh, G.J. et al. 2020: Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhes-2020-69, in review
The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Why do changes in the ocean and cryosphere matter? (IPCC, 2019)

The global ocean covers 71% of the Earth surface. Around 10% of Earth’s land area is covered by glaciers or ice sheets. The
ocean and cryosphere support unique habitats and are interconnected with other components of the climate system through
global exchange of water, energy and carbon.

The responses of the ocean and cryosphere include climate feedbacks, changes over decades to millennia, thresholds
of abrupt change, and irreversibility (Figure 1).
The state of the ocean and cryosphere affects food and water supply, renewable energy, infrastructure, health and well-being,
cultural values, tourism, trade and transport.

Cascading Effects
Feedbacks

Physical
Forcing Impacts Biogeochemical
Changes

Human action
Mitigation/
Adaptation

Human Systems Biological

Changes Ecological
Changes

Figure 1. Schematic of the concept of cascading effects associated with changes in the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate. Cascading effects, where
changes in one part of a system inevitably affect the state in another, and so forth, ultimately affecting the state of the entire system. These cascading effects can
also trigger feedbacks, altering the forcing (Source, IPCC SROCC Report, Chapter 6, Figure 6.2 (for information on the year from 1998 to 2017, type of hazard,
region, characteristics of severity, attribution to anthropogenic climate change and impacts and costs, see Table 6.2 in that chapter)).

What are observed changes in the cryosphere?

Ice sheets and glaciers worldwide have lost mass. Between 2006 and 2015, the Greenland Ice Sheet lost ice mass at an
average rate of 278 ±11 Gt yr–1, mostly due to surface melting. In 2006–2015, the Antarctic Ice Sheet lost mass at
an average rate of 155 ±19 Gt yr–1, mostly due to rapid thinning and retreat of major outlet glaciers draining the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet. Glaciers worldwide outside Greenland and Antarctica lost mass at an average rate of 220 ±30 Gt yr–1
in 2006–2015.

Arctic June snow cover extent on land declined by 13.4 ±5.4% per decade from 1967 to 2018, a total loss of approximately
2.5 million km2, predominantly due to surface air temperature increase. In nearly all high mountain areas, the depth,
extent and duration of snow cover have declined over recent decades, especially at lower elevation.

Between 1979 and 2018, Arctic sea-ice extent has decreased for all months of the year. September sea ice reductions are
12.8 ±2.3% per decade. These sea-ice changes in September are likely unprecedented for at least 1000 years.
Approximately half the observed sea-ice loss is attributable to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
11
The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Permafrost temperatures have increased to record high levels. Arctic and boreal permafrost contain 1460 to 1600 Gt of
organic carbon, almost twice the carbon in the atmosphere.

Antarctic sea-ice extent overall has had no statistically significant trend (1979–2018) due to contrasting regional signals
and large interannual variability.

Cryospheric and associated hydrological changes have impacted land-based and freshwater species, especially
ecosystems in high mountain and polar regions.
Increasing wildfire and abrupt permafrost thaw, as well as changes in Arctic and mountain hydrology, have altered the
frequency and intensity of ecosystem disturbances.

Since the mid-20th century, the shrinking cryosphere in the Arctic and high mountain areas has led to predominantly negative
impacts on food security, water resources, water quality, livelihoods, health and well-being, infrastructure,
transportation, tourism and recreation as well as on our culture.

What are observed changes in the ocean?

The global ocean has warmed unabated since 1970 and has taken up more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate
system. Since 1993 the rate of ocean warming, and thus heat uptake has more than doubled and is attributed to
anthropogenic forcing. The Southern Ocean accounted for 35% to 43% of the total heat gain in the upper 2000 m global ocean
between 1970 and 2017. Its share increased to 45% to 62% between 2005 and 2017.

The deep ocean below 2000 m has warmed since 1992, especially in the Southern Ocean. Marine heatwaves (Figure 2),
defined as daily sea surface temperature exceeding the local 99th percentile over the period 1982 to 2016, have doubled in
frequency and have become longer-lasting, more intense and more extensive. Between 84% to 90% of marine heatwaves that
occurred between 2006 and 2015 are attributable to anthropogenic temperature increase. Marine heatwaves have already
resulted in large-scale coral bleaching events at increasing frequency causing worldwide reef degradation since 1997, and
recovery is slow if it occurs.

Compound events

Cyclone Extreme Drought Marine Tidal Wave-induced Cold or Sea ice Multiple Drought, rainfall, Drought, low
rainfall heatwave flooding flooding snow storm minimum cyclones marine heatwave sea levels

Figure 2. Location where extreme events with an identified link to ocean changes have been discussed in the SROCC report. For many of these selected events,
the method of event attribution has been used to estimate the role of climate change using either a probabilistic approach (using ensembles of climate models to
assess how much more likely the event has become with anthropogenic climate change compared to a world without), or a storyline approach which examines the
components of the climate system that contribute to events and how changes in the climate system affect them. (Source, IPCC SROCC Report, Chapter 6, Figure
6.2 (for information on the year from 1998 to 2017, type of hazard, region, characteristics of severity, attribution to anthropogenic climate change and impacts
and costs, see Table 6.2 in that chapter)). 12
The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Observed surface ocean warming and high latitude addition of freshwater are making the surface ocean less dense relative to
deeper parts of the ocean and inhibiting mixing between surface and deeper waters. This has contributed to a loss of oxygen in
the open ocean of 0.5% to 3.3% over the upper 1000 m in 1970–2010.

The ocean has taken up between 20% to 30% of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions since the 1980s causing further
ocean acidification. The decline in surface ocean pH has already emerged from background natural variability for more than
95% of the ocean surface area.

Since about 1950 many marine species have undergone shifts in geographical range and seasonal activities in response
to ocean warming, sea-ice change and oxygen loss. This has resulted in shifts in species composition, abundance and
biomass production of ecosystems, from the equator to the poles.

What is the observed sea-level change?

Global mean sea-level is rising, with acceleration in recent decades due to increasing rates of ice loss from the Greenland
and Antarctic ice sheets, as well as continued glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion.

The rate of global mean sea-level rise for 2006–2015 of 3.6 ±0.5 mm yr–1 is unprecedented over the last century. The sum of
ice sheet and glacier contributions over the period 2006–2015 is the dominant source of sea level rise, exceeding the
effect of thermal expansion of ocean water. The dominant cause of global mean sea-level rise since 1970 is anthropogenic
forcing.

Increases in tropical cyclone winds and rainfall, and increases in extreme waves, combined with relative
sea- level rise, exacerbate extreme sea- level events and coastal hazards (Figure 2). There is emerging evidence
for an increase in annual global proportion of Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones in recent decades.

Restoration of vegetated coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrass meadows (coastal
‘blue carbon’ ecosystems), could provide climate change mitigation through increased carbon uptake and storage of around
0.5% of current global emissions annually, and multiple other benefits (e.g. storm protection, improving water quality, and
benefiting biodiversity and fisheries). Improving the quantification of carbon storage and greenhouse gas fluxes of
these coastal ecosystems will reduce current uncertainties around measurement, reporting and verification.

What is the role of climate information in implementing effective responses to climate-

related changes in the ocean and cryosphere?
Key enablers include education and climate literacy, observations, monitoring and forecasting, use of all available
knowledge sources, sharing of data, information and knowledge. Sustained long-term monitoring, sharing of data,
information and knowledge and improved context-specific forecasts, including early warning systems, help to manage
negative impacts from ocean changes such as losses in fisheries, and adverse impacts on human health, food security,
agriculture, coral reefs, aquaculture, wildfire, tourism, conservation, drought and flood.

Reference
IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, et al. D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-
Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. In press.

13
Water and Cryosphere

Climate and water resources

The changes that are happening in our climate system have started to impact and will have more pronounced impacts on our
planet. The United Nations World Water Development Report (UNESCO, 2019) lists three key water related impacts of a
changing climate:
1. Increases in water-related disasters
2. Increases in areas suffering from water stress
3. Increases in poor water quality related fatalities.
Currently, 90% of the impact of natural disasters is water related (Figure 1).

By 2050, the number of people

at risk of floods will increase
from its current level of 1.2
billion to 1.6 billion. In the early
to mid-2010s, 1.9 billion
people, or 27% of the global
population, lived in potential
severely water-scarce
areas. In 2050, this number will
increase between 42% and
95%, or 2.7 to 3.2 billion
people. As of 2019, 12% of
the world population drinks
water from unimproved and
Figure 1. World weather-related natural catastrophes by peril, 1980–2017 (Number of relevant events by peril)
unsafe sources. MunichRE (2018)
More than 30% of the world
population, or 2.4 billion people, live without any form of sanitation. Over 800 children die everyday from diarrhea associated
with unsafe water, poor sanitation and hygience (UNICEF, 2017).

Global warming is projected to increase the number of water-stressed regions and exacerbate shortages in already water-
stressed regions (Figure 2). Global freshwater withdrawals for agriculture, industry and municipal use have increased by a
factor of six since 1900 (Ritchie and Roser, 2018), 70% of these are used for agriculture. Low income countries use
on average 90% of their freshwater for
agriculture, while many developed
countries use less than 40%.

Water storage is essential for

food security. Grill et al. (2015)
studied the expected growth in dam
construction to 2030 and estimated
that as of 2015, 43% of river volume
is moderately to severely impacted
by either flow regulation,
fragmentation, or both. They
report that by 2030 most
affordable potential water storage
sites are likely to have been
constructed, leaving only more
challenging options available for further
development, whilst demand will Figure 2. Per Capita Water Availability and Future Population Growth, 2050 (Damania et al. 2017)
continue to increase. At the same time,
Annandale et al. (2016) report that net water storage worldwide is falling due to sedimentation.

The cryosphere is an important source of freshwater in mountains and their downstream regions.
There is high confidence that annual runoff from glaciers has reached peak water now for Central Europe and Caucasus
and will reach peak water globally at the latest by the end of the 21st century. After that, glacier
runoff is projected to decline globally with implications for water storage (Hock et al. 2019).
14
Water and Cryosphere

It is estimated that the Tibetan Plateau region

will reach peak water between 2030 and 2050.
As runoff from snow cover, permafrost and
glaciers in this region (Figure 3) provides up to
45% of the total river flow, the flow decrease
would affect water availability for 1.7 billion
people with a gross domestic product (GDP)
of US$ 12.7 trillion (Yao et al. 2020).
The emerging risks associated with the declining
snow, glaciers, permafrost, sea ice, and
the Greenland and the Antarctica ice
sheets, challenge our ability to achieve the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
(Hock et al. 2019), and more specifically,
ensuring water availability (SDG6),
achieving food security (SDG2), ensuring
Figure 3. Third Pole on the Tibetan Plateau region: glaciers and cryosphere fed rivers (Yao et
access to affordable energy for all (SDG7), al. 2020)
and combating climate change (SDG13).
The hydrological cycle, including ice and
snow dynamics determines current and
future access to fresh water. Expected
increase in water demand can be addressed
by means of two broad policy options:
increase the water supply available or
decrease demand for water (become more water
efficient).
The first U.S. intelligence Community
Assessment of Global Water Security predicts
that by 2030 humanity's "annual global water
requirements" will exceed "current sustainable
water supplies" by 40%. Absent major policy
interventions, water insecurity will generate
widespread social and political instability.
Most simulations to date project that the Arctic
Ocean will experience a first practically sea-ice
free (sea-ice area < 1 million km2) September
in 2050 (Figure 4). These simulations confirm
that cutting greenhouse gas emissions remains
vital to prevent the worst impacts on the Arctic.
The fate of Antarctic sea ice is more uncertain.
Figure 4. Evolution of September Arctic sea-ice area over the historical period and following
Models project sea-ice loss (SIMIP Community, three scenario projections for all available CMIP6 models (adapted from SIMIP Community,
2020) over the 21st century in all scenarios, but 2020)
confidence in the rate of loss is limited (Roach et
al. 2020).

References
Annandale, G. et al. 2016: Extending the Life of Reservoirs: Sustainable Sediment Management for Dams and Run-of-River Hydropower. Directions in Development.
Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0836-8.
Damania, R. et al. 2017: Uncharted Waters: The New Economics of Water Scarcity and Variability. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1- 4648-1179-1.
Grill, G. et al. 2015: An index-based framework for assessing patterns and trends in river fragmentation and flow regulation by global dams at multiple scales. Env. Res.
Lett., 10:015001
Hock, R. et al. 2019: High Mountain Areas. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, et al. (eds.)]. In press.
MunichRE, 2018: Geo Risks Research, NatCatService as of January 2018
Ritchie, H. and Roser, M. 2018: Water Use and Stress. https://ourworldindata.org/water-use-stress
Roach, L. A. et al. 2020: Antarctic sea ice in CMIP6. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2019GL086729. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086729
SIMIP Community 2020: Arctic sea ice in CMIP6. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2019GL086749. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749
UNICEF, 2017: Thirsting for a Future: Water and children in a changing climate. ISBN: 978-92-806-4874-4 15
Yao, T. et al. 2019: Asian Water Tower Change and Its Impacts. Bull. Chinese Acad. Sci. 34: 1203-1209, DOI 10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2019.11.003
Global Climate in 2020–2024 – WMO Global
Annual to Decadal Climate Update

The WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction (www.wmolc-adcp.org) produces a summary of annual to
decadal predictions for the coming five years. These predictions are the best estimate of the near term climate as they are
based on ten of the world’s leading decadal prediction systems from WMO-designated Global Producing Centres
and non-designated contributing centres and include 100 multiple realizations with both observed initial conditions of the
type used in seasonal prediction and boundary forcing used to drive long-term climate projections. The predictions do
not include any changes in emissions due to COVID-19 effects and they assume that no major volcanic eruptions
occur in the period until 2024.

Predicted temperature patterns

for 2020–2024 show a high
probability for near surface
temperatures above the 1981–
2010 average almost
everywhere, with enhanced
warming at high northern
latitudes and over land compared
to ocean (Figure 1). The Arctic
(north of 60°N) anomaly is
more than twice as large as the
global mean anomaly.

Figure 1. Predictions for 2020–2024 near surface temperature anomalies relative to 1981–2010. Ensemble mean
(left) and probability of above average (right). As this is a two-category forecast, the probability for below average
is one minus the probability shown in the right column.

Figure 2 shows that in the five-year period 2020–2024, the annual mean global near surface temperature is predicted to be
between 0.91 °C and 1.59 °C above pre-industrial conditions (taken as the average over the period 1850 to 1900). The chance
of at least one year exceeding 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is 24%, with a very small chance (3%) of the five-year mean
exceeding this level. Confidence in forecasts of global mean temperature is high. However, the coronavirus lockdown caused
changes in emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols that were not included in the forecast models. The impact of changes
in greenhouse gases is likely small based on early estimates (Le Quéré et al. 2020 and Carbonbrief.org).

Figure 2. Multi-annual predictions of global mean near surface temperature relative to 1981–2010. Annual mean observations in black, forecast in blue, hindcasts
in green and uninitialized simulations in grey. The shading indicates the 90% confidence range. The probability for above average in the five-year mean of the
forecast is given at the bottom the main panel (in brackets the probability for above average in the first year). The inset in the main panel, referring to the right
hand axis, is the probability of global temperature exceeding 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels for a single month or year during the five years starting in the year
indicated (Smith et al. 2015; Karl et al. 2015; Morice et al. 2012). Observed temperatures are an average of three observational data sets (Hansen et al. 2010,
updated), they are near surface (1.5m) over land and surface temperatures over the ocean. Model temperatures are near surface throughout.

16
Global Climate in 2020–2024 – WMO Global
Annual to Decadal Climate Update

Precipitation forecasts for

2020–2024 (Figure 3) suggest
an increased chance of drier
conditions over northern South
America, the Mediterranean
and southern Africa and
wetter conditions in northern
Eurasia, Alaska and Canada.
Prediction skill is moderate
though significant in these
regions, giving low to
medium confidence in the
forecast. Figure 3. Predictions for 2020–2024 precipitation anomalies relative to 1981–2010. Ensemble mean (left) and
probability of above average (right). As this is a two-category forecast, the probability for below average is
one minus the probability shown in the right column.

Precipitation predictions for 2020–2024 favour wetter than average conditions at high latitudes in both hemispheres, but
confidence is low because observations are insufficient for assessing skill except over land. Overall, the pattern of
increased precipitation in the tropics and high latitudes and reduced precipitation in the subtropics compared to 1981–2010 is
consistent with the effects of increased greenhouse gases as the climate warms. There is moderate but significant correlation
skill over the Sahel, parts of South America and across northern Europe and Eurasia, giving medium confidence in the
forecast for an increased chance of precipitation in these regions.

In conclusion, predictions for 2020–2024 suggest that:

• Annual global temperature is likely to be at least 1 °C higher than pre-industrial levels (defined as the 1850–1900
average) in each of the coming 5 years and is very likely to be within the range 0.91 to 1.59 °C.
• It is unlikely (~20% chance) that average global near surface temperature in one of the next 5 years will be at least
1.5 °C warmer than pre-industrial levels, but the chance is increasing with time.
• It is likely (~70% chance) that one or more months during the next 5 years will be at least 1.5 °C warmer than
pre-industrial levels.
• It is very unlikely (~3%) that the 5-year mean temperature for 2020–2024 will be 1.5 °C warmer than pre-
industrial levels.
• Over 2020–2024, large land areas in the northern hemisphere are likely to be over 0.8 °C warmer than the recent
past (defined as the 1981–2010 average).
• Over 2020–2024, near surface temperatures relative to 1981–2010 are likely to be more than twice as warm in the
Arctic than the global mean.
• Over 2020–2024, many parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia are likely to be dryer than the recent
past.

References
Smith, D. M. et al. 2018: Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 11,895–11,903. https://
doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079362 Hansen, J. et al. 2010: Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345
Karl, T. R. et al. 2015: Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus. Science, 348, 1469– 1472. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa5632
Le Quéré, C. et al. 2020: Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement. Nat. Clim. Change, 14:121001
doi.org\10.1038\s41558-020-0797-x
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-impact-will-the-coronavirus-pandemic-have-on-atmospheric-co2
Morice, C. P. et al. 2012: Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set.
J. Geophys. Res., 117, D08101. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017187

17
Emissions Gap

The emissions gap is larger than ever

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) issued its tenth Emissions Gap Report in late 2019
and the preparations for the 2020 report are on track for December 2020. The reports assess the
difference between where global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are heading and where they need to be
for the world to get on track to keeping global warming within the agreed goals in the Paris Agreement.

The findings of the reports are

sobering: despite scientific
warnings, increased political and
societal attention and the Paris
Agreement, global GHG emissions
have continued to increase and the
emissions gap is larger than ever
(Figure 1). Even with full
implementation of the current
Nationally Determined Contributions
(NDCs), the Emissions Gap in 2030
will be around 15 Gt of CO2
equivalent (GtCO2e) for a 2 °C
goal, and 32 GtCO2e for a
1.5 °C goal (both with a
probability of at least 66%). To
give an indication of the
magnitude of this gap, the total
emissions of the six largest
emitters, that is, China, USA,
EU28, India, Russia and Japan was
around 32 GtCO2e in 2018 (Figure
2). The current level of climate
ambition sets us on course to a
global average temperature
increase of 3.0 to 3.2 °C by the end
of this century.

Figure 1. The emissions gap in 2030 (UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2019)
Transformational change
needed to close the
emissions gap
The challenge is clear: if we want to
keep the Paris Agreement goals
of limiting global warming to well
below 2 °C and pursuing a
1.5 °C goal alive, postponing
transformational action is not
an option. The Emissions Gap
Report 2019 showed that to have
a likely chance1 of meeting
the Paris Agreement goals, the
cuts in global emissions required
per year from 2020 to 2030 are
close to 3% for a 2 °C target and
more than 7% per year on average
for the 1.5 °C goal. Figure 2. The top emitters of greenhouse gases, excluding land-use change emissions
due to lack of reliable country-level data, on an absolute basis (left) and per capita basis
(right) (UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2019) 18
Emissions Gap

While the global COVID-19 pandemic is causing significant short-term reductions in global emissions, it will not have significant
impact on the longer-term climate mitigation challenge, unless the health crises is used for reflection, and the many stimulus
and recovery initiatives are used to "build back better”2. Focus will need to be on activities that have short-term economic
benefits, while at the same time setting national development on a low-carbon path. The Emissions Gap Report 2020 will
assess the implications of COVID-19 on global emissions and the emissions gap.

We have the solutions to get on track

Is it then possible to bridge the emissions gap? The short answer is yes, but time is running out. The Emissions Gap Reports
have provided a detailed assessment of sectoral mitigation options in 2030, which shows that the economic and technical
mitigation potential is sufficient to get on track to well below 2 °C and to 1.5 °C. A substantial part of the short-term potential
can be realized through scaling up and replicating existing, well-proven policies that simultaneously contribute to other
Sustainable Development Goals.

One example is how renewables and energy efficiency, in combination with electrification of end uses (including transport) and
a phase out of coal, are key to a successful transition of the global energy sector and to driving down energy-related CO2
emissions. Technological and economic developments offer opportunities to decarbonize the energy sector at a cost that
is lower than ever. A key example is the cost declines of renewable energy, which continue to outpace projections.
Renewables are by now the cheapest source of new power generation in most parts of the world, with the global
weighted average purchase or auction price for new solar power photovoltaic systems and onshore wind turbines now
competitive with the marginal operating cost of existing coal plants by 2020 (Figure 3).

As there is a significant time lag between

policy decisions and the reaping of
emission reduction benefits, the 2020–
2024 period, which is the first NDC and
global stocktake cycle under the Paris
Agreement, will be defining for the
possibility of bridging the 2030 emissions 7
gap. The new or updated NDCs to be Figure 6.1 — Here we're missing the headline and description of the figure

submitted before the 26th session of the

Conference of Parties (COP 26) of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) will provide an
indication of the prospects of achieving the
required emission reductions by 2030.
Similarly, the global stocktake will
provide a preliminary indication of the
actual implementation of the NDCs,
with the first Biennial Transparency
Reports due in 2024 demonstrating
Figure 3. Global weighted-average levelized costs of electricity of utility-scale renewable power
the early results of NDC action. Even generation technologies, 2010–2018 (UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2019)
if new NDCs by 2025 are significantly
more ambitious, raising ambition by
2025 will essentially be too late to bridge
the 2030 gap as it will not be possible
to implement the required action in five
years.

1defined
as greater than 66% probability in line with the IPCC.
2See,
for example, International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 2020: The post-COVID recovery: An agenda for resilience, development and equality, International
Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. ISBN 978-92-9260-245-1; https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Jun/IRENA_Post-
COVID_Recovery_2020.pdf

19
Emissions Gap

New solutions necessary in the longer timeframe

Looking beyond the

2030 timeframe, new
technological solutions and
gradual change in
consumption patterns are
needed at all levels and for
all sectors. The progress
achieved in IT and
telecommunication in the
last decades provides a
clear example of how
technological innovation can
form a basis for
transformational change
with significant emissions
reductions (Figure 4).

Figure 4. The energy and material benefits of accessing services via a multipurpose smartphone (left)
over owning an array of single-purpose goods (right) (UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2019)

Where such major transitions are not an

opportunity, there will be a need to explore how
more integrated approaches can contribute.
One area receiving increasing attention is
resource efficiency, including aspects of
circularity and behavioural change. Based on
data from the International Resource Panel,
Figure 5 illustrates how material efficiency and
substitution combined with behavioural change
can reduce emissions associated with production
and use of passenger vehicles.To reach net-zero
emissions, measures that sequester or remove
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere will also be
required. A significant part of the options fall
under nature-based solutions that are well-
proven, but often hampered by social or
economic barriers.

In conclusion, the Emissions Gap Reports

highlight the enormous challenge facing the
global community in achieving the temperature
goals of the Paris Agreement. It will require
Figure 5. Annual emissions from the manufacturing and use of passenger
vehicles in the G7 and in China and India, in a scenario that follows the
urgent and concerted action by all countries,
Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1 to mitigate emissions to below 2 °C (UNEP reflecting the principles of the Convention. The
Emissions Gap Report 2019) policy and technological options necessary to
bridge the 2030 emissions gap are available and
ready for implementation, while new technologies and options will be required to realize the longer-term global
ambition of achieving net-zero emissions by the middle of this century. No silver bullets exist and all options need to be
brought into play.

20
Earth System Observations during
COVID-19

COVID-19 impacts the observing system and our ability to forecast weather and
predict climate change
The COVID-19 pandemic has produced significant impacts on the global observing systems for weather, climate, water and
ocean health, which in turn have affected the quality of forecasts and other weather, climate and ocean-related services.

Immediate impacts on the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) – UNESCO-IOC

In March 2020 governments and oceanographic institutions recalled nearly all oceanographic research vessels to home ports.
Since around the same time, commercial ships have been unable to contribute vital ocean and weather observations. In
addition, ocean buoys and other systems could not be maintained, in some cases leading to their premature failure. Even
autonomous equipment could not be deployed to cover gaps in the system.

The Global Ocean Observing System1 (GOOS) organized a systematic review of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the
ocean observing system, including the eleven global in situ ocean observing networks2 (Figure 1), to assess risk across the full
range of essential climate and ocean variables used in services from weather forecasting to commercial shipping and ocean
policy, as well as in addressing climatic change.

Four valuable full-depth ocean surveys – of over a dozen different climate and ocean related variables such as carbon,
temperature, salinity, and water alkalinity, completed only once per decade by the GO-SHIP network – have been cancelled.
Surface carbon measurements from ships, which tell us about the evolution and fate of greenhouse gases, also effectively
ceased.

There has been a slowdown in the deployment of autonomous instruments, such as drifting buoys, drifting floats and
underwater gliders (see Table 1). Though these instruments are more resilient, operating autonomously for months to
years after being deployed by scientists3, they need regular deployment. Ocean gliders also saw a drastic decline in
operations causing gaps in time-series, but operations are now re-bounding as restrictions ease.

Figure 1. Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Networks

1
IOC, WMO, UNEP, ISC
2
Data Buoy Cooperation Panel (DBCP), Global Drifter Array and Moored Buoy network, Argo Profiling Float Programme, Global Ocean Ship-Based Hydrographic
Investigations Programme (GO-SHIP), The Ship-of-Opportunity Programme (SOOP), Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS), Automated Shipboard Aerological Programme
(ASAP), Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS), International High Frequency Radar (HF-Radar Network), OceanSITES Open-Ocean Timeseries (OceanSITES),
OceanGliders, Animal Bome Ocean Sensors (AniBOS).
3The rise of ocean robots, Editorial, 2020: Nat. Geosci. 13, 393 - doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0597-y
21
Earth System Observations during
COVID-19

Table 1. Data source, www.jcommops.org *119 floats deployed from R/V Kaharoa (New Zealand) in southern hemisphere (Indian and Southern Oceans).

The global drifter array, which provide sea surface measurements to national weather prediction centres, was at full
capacity when the pandemic began and is not solely dependent on research vessels for deployments.

Coastal ocean observing stations such as sea-level gauges and high-frequency radar maintained critical function, with
many individual operators working from home under COVID-19 restrictions. This is particularly vital as the sea- level
observations from the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) provide the underpinning to the tsunami warning system
and essential climate knowledge and mitigation strategies. It is crucial that GOOS operations are considered essential
so that these operators can continue to deploy and maintain instruments safely. Overall the GOOS has shown
remarkable resilience, this is in great part due to the increased use of autonomous instruments and the actions of observing
system operators.

Action required to maintain ocean observing operations

As research vessels resume operations, it is of paramount importance that the essential maintenance of deep-sea moorings is
resumed. These moorings monitor major ocean currents and critical air-sea exchanges for ocean and weather prediction and
climate, as well as providing essential long time series of critical climate data4. Although some operators have been able to
reduce the frequency of observation to preserve battery life, several moorings are still at risk of failure in the coming months.

The Argo network is heavily reliant on research vessel cruises for reseeding the array and a 10% reduction in the flow of data
from the Argo network was detected in July 2020. While it is too early to tell the extent to which this is due to COVID-19, the
low level of recent Argo float deployment compounds the situation and cannot be immediately remedied. The global array of
Data Buoy Cooperation Panel (DBCP) drifting floats is now showing a decline in observations arriving to the real-time
data systems of the order of 17%, compared with early 2020.

Several nations restarted research vessel operations in July and August 2020 (Australia, Belgium, Finland, Germany,
Netherlands, New Zealand, and United States of America). However, there is concern that the operation of some
research vessel may not resume and those that do may do so under constraints, such as reduced crews and
home-port to home-port cruises.

With research vessel operations impacted through 2020 and possibly into 2021, it is vital that there is careful
international coordination across national research vessel fleets to ensure we do not compromise essential climate and
weather prediction datasets. The observing network should also assess operational flexibly, such as contracting commercial
vessels, using ships of opportunity or navy vessels, and partnership with local and indigenous populations. And all of this
needs to be understood in the context of the safety of vessels, crew and operators.

4 Viglione, G. 2020: How COVID-19 could ruin weather forecasts and climate records. Nature, 580, 440–441, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00924-6
22
Earth System Observations during
COVID-19

Immediate impacts on land and air atmospheric observations – WMO

The significant reduction of aircraft-based observations by an average of 75% to 80% in March and April 2020, compared to
normal, have and are still degrading the forecast skills of weather models. In some of the most vulnerable areas,
where in situ measurements are also scarce, the loss of data was even larger; up to 90% in the tropics and in the
southern hemisphere. Since June 2020, a slight recovery in observation numbers has occurred as countries gradually
increase domestic and international flights (Figure 2). However, this recovery is expected to continue to be slow as
experts do not foresee a return to pre-COVID-19 levels for industry for at least another 12 months or more. In order to
partly mitigate the loss of aircraft data, some countries started launching extra radiosondes. This was and is still
taking place, especially in Europe under the coordination of the European Meteorological Services Network
(EUMETNET).

However, in many parts of the world,

the pandemic had significant impacts
on in-situ weather observations,
particularly in countries and regions
reliant on manual observations,
including large parts of Africa and
South America. Lockdowns and
mandatory tele-working policies in
many countries interrupted the data
delivery chain and have highlighted
the vulnerability of non-automatic
stations under these circumstances.
As a result, the transmission of
surface and upper-air observation data
has stopped completely for several
countries and many exhibited
significant drops in the period between
January and July 2020 compared
to pre-COVID-19 situation (Figure 3).

The reduction in observations can

Figure 2. Monthly mean daily volume of aircraft-based observations in the WMO Information System
lead to lower weather forecast skills (WIS) from 31/01/2018 until 23/07/2020. From levels of over 800 000 observations per day from several
globally, and particularly in the sources, including the WMO Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) programme, before the crisis,
countries and regions affected. data volume fell dramatically to around 200 000 observations in March and April 2020. Please note that
BUFR and AIREP / ADS-C and FM42 are different reporting formats for aircraft observation data.
Especially in regard to weather and
climate related warnings to protect
lives and property, this situation is
alarming and highlights the need for
sustained investment in automated
observing systems around the globe.
The drop in aircraft observations,
which are crucial for global weather
forecasting, showcases the importance
of complementary and partially
redundant systems in order to be
resilient to data losses from one
component of the system. In the
longer-term, the financial impacts of
COVID-19 are also expected to affect
the capacity of countries to support
their national early warning and
weather observing capacities, with Figure 3. Surface observations anomalies from January to July 2020 (with respect to the same months
potential negative consequences both in 2019) on a country basis . Note that not all station reductions have been caused by the COVID-19
pandemic.
locally and globally. Observations
taken for monitoring and forecasting 23
Earth System Observations during
COVID-19

daily weather are among the Global Climate Observing System's (GCOS) Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). Accumulated
historical ECV data is essential for applications such as tracking climate variability, extremes and trends, for
validating seasonal and annual to decadal climate forecast skill, and for generating climate change projections. As
daily weather observations decline, the resulting gaps in the long term historical record negatively affect these
climate time-scale applications as well.

Resilience through space-based and automated observations

Space-based observations are crucial component of the observation network of WMO Members. Currently,
around 30 meteorological and 200 research satellites provide continuous, highly automated observations. The
pandemic demonstrated the importance of this component, which has continued to deliver data throughout the crisis. This
holds true also for automatic surface weather stations which are used almost exclusively in developed countries and
increasingly also in developing countries.

Immediate impacts on land-based observations

For the manifold land-based observations that are crucial to monitor the Earth’s climate and the impacts of climate change, the
impacts of COVID-19 are very diverse and not fully visible or/and understood yet. Lockdowns and travel restrictions are very
likely to prohibit measurement campaigns for the mass balance of glaciers or the thickness of permafrost, which are
usually done once a year at the end of the thawing period. For the northern hemisphere this will mean that many long time
series will be discontinued in 2020. For hydrological observations like river discharge, the situation is similar to that of
atmospheric in situ measurements, and automated systems are expected to continue delivering data whereas gauging
stations that depend on manual reading are affected in many countries.

Acting to maintain critical function of the global observing systems

These results teach us the importance of international cooperative action between networks, countries and global
organizations such as UNESCO-IOC and WMO, in order to help sustain key observations and flows of data:

• Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) activities to be considered as essential work.

• Increased international coordination across national research vessel.

• Flexibility in operations can be implemented through partnership with commercial and local operators.
• Coordinated reseeding of autonomous arrays and expanded consideration of unmanned platforms is
necessary.
• Investment to accelerate the transformation from manned to automatic in-situ observation stations,
especially in the developing world.
• Increased resilience through redundancy and complementary networks across surface and space-based
platforms.

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 For more information please visit:

public.wmo.int/en/resources/united_in_science

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