Module 1b SJ Mainstreaming Framewok Part 1
Module 1b SJ Mainstreaming Framewok Part 1
Module 1b SJ Mainstreaming Framewok Part 1
Fundamental Concepts!
1
The Country’s Risk Profile
2
The Country’s Risk Profile
3
The Country’s Risk Profile
4
The Country’s Risk Profile
30 70,000,000
Trends: Growing urbanization and
increasing exposure to disaster events in
22.5
the Philippines 52,500,000
15 35,000,000
7.5 17,500,000
0 0
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
!
Risk Financing Capability for the Philippines)! Philippines!
2005-2030 est. growth of 67% (+35m
people) to 76%
The Country’s Risk Profile
12.2 million people affected; 13 billion dollars in damage and losses - Rehabilitation Action for
Yolanda
Floods
Landslides
Storm surge
Severe wind Engineering
Tsunami Economic
Earthquake Social
People
Buildings
Source: Crichton 1999
Economic Activities
Infrastructure 8
Environment
Risk Assessment
1
(H)
2
(E and V)
3
1
(H)
(E and V)
* Note that BSWM produces Erosion and flooding maps for agricultural assessment purposes, not for
hazard mapping!
** Depends on availability
Hazard characterization
• Hydrometeorological hazards
Hazard type Hazard Levels
Rainfall-induced landslide Low susceptibility
Moderate susceptibility
High susceptibility
Accumulation area
Flooded area
Flooding Areas prone to flooding
Storm surge Inundation of <=1m
Inundation of 1m to >4m surge
Inundation of >4m surge
Hazard characterization
• Geologic Hazards
Hazard type Hazard Levels
Earthquake-induced landslide Areas not susceptible to earthquake-induced landslides
1,400
Greater than 5.00
2.01 to 5.00
1.01 to 2.00
0.51 to 1.00
0.20 to 0.50
1,050 Less than 0.20
Area affecred (in hectares)
700
350
0 Logos and
Balulang Bulua Consolacion Lapasan Nazareth Pualas
Barangay
Technical
Notes
3D Visualisation of the Flood Model derived using LIDAR data for Cagayan
De Oro City. 1 in 100 year event modelled, flood depth shown.
© Image from 1 in 100 year flood model produced by the DREAM-LIDAR component of Project
NOAH
(National Operational Assessment of Hazards). Modelled flood depth is shown overlain on the
Climate
Change
Projections
(Rainfall)
!
Digital
terrain,
surface and Flood
elevation Inundation
models from
Modelling
!
LIDAR shots
!
Satellite
images of
land cover of Watershed
watershed Rainfall
! Runoff
! Modelling
Tidal
patterns
!!
Ground
truthing
through river
measurements
and
watershed
surveys
Risk Assessment
(H)
2
(E and V)
!
Exposed elements or elements at risk refer to the factors, such as people, buildings,
infrastructure, the economy and natural environment, that are subject to the impact of specific
hazard.!
!
Expressed as area and/or monetary unit, for social, economic and environmental related
property. In terms of population exposure, it can be expressed as the number of affected
individuals or households.!
!
Vulnerability refers to the capacity of an element exposed during the impact of a hazard
event; refers to the characteristics of an element exposed to a hazard – person, road, building,
economy – that contributes to the capacity of the exposed element to resist, cope with, and
recover from the impact of natural hazard. !
!
Characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to
the damaging effects of a hazard. Vulnerability may arise from various physical, economic and
environmental factors such as poor design and construction of buildings, inadequate protection
of assets, lack of public information and awareness, limited official recognition of risks and
preparedness measures, and disregard for wise environmental management. (PDRRM Act)
Exposed Elements or Elements at Risk:
Examples
– Population (Social)
– Properties (houses, buildings, installations)
– Agriculture (crops, agro-industrial)
– Infrastructure
• Transportation:
– bridges, airports, seaports, bus terminals and stations : Point
coverage
– Roads, rails: Line coverage
• Utilities:
– Power – Local electric cooperative or NPC/Transco: point coverage
– Water (pumping stations, tanks) – local water district: point
coverage
– Communication - Cell sites; long-distance telephone centers
– Emergency Facilities
• Hospitals and Clinics
• Evacuation Centers and Shelters
• Protective Services
ClimEx.db App
of Project Climate Twin Phoenix
• Paperless survey/primary
data gathering
• Geo-coded/Geo-
referenced data
• Automatic report
generation
• Innovation for Cagayan de
Oro City- embedded
barangay maps
!
24
25
26
27
Source: UPICE
Source: UPICE
Exposure and vulnerability: Typhoon Sendong
(H)
(E and V)
3
(H)
(E and V)
Improvements of
Any decrease in the risk is acceptable
current risk
http://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/RBP/Risk-based-planning/A-toolbox/Setting-the-Scene/General-Natural-Hazard-Guidance/Acceptable-Risk
How climate change increases
disaster risks
• CC changes the magnitude and frequency of
extreme events: coping and response
mechanisms and economic planning for
disasters based on past vulnerabilities may no
longer suffice
• CC changes average climatic conditions and
climate variability, affecting underlying risk
factors, and it generates new threats: which a
country may have no experience in dealing
with
Source: 2008. Tearfund. Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk
Reduction
Overlap between DRR and CCA
2008. DFID. Convergence of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptat
Disaster Risk Management
x
Risk Management Options
Climate Change Adaptation Options
! !
Bear losses Change use
! !
Share losses Change location
! !
Modify the threat Research
! Behavioral
Prevent effects change
DRR CCA
Risk Instituting Strengthen the ability Prevent A frequently used set of For coastal zones
Prevention measures so of structures to resist effects adaptation measures -Coastal defences/sea
that the hazard hazard involves steps to prevent walls
does not turn the effects of climate -Surge barriers
into a disaster, Enforce strict zoning change and variability. -Upgrade drainage
or at the very and building standards For example, in systems, salt water
least reduce agriculture intrusion barriers
the impact of such measures include: -Sediment
the hazard changes in crop management
management practices, -Habitat protection
such as increased (e.g., wetlands,
irrigation water, mangroves)
additional fertiliser use, -Land use planning
and pest and disease
control. For water
-Loss reduction
(leakage control,
conservation
plumbing)
-Capacity increase
(new
reservoirs,
desalination
facilities)
- Water permits
- Water pricing
45
DRR CCA
Risk Reducing the Flood control works Modify the For some risks, it is
reduction severity of a (dams, dikes, levees) threat possible to exercise a
or hazard impact degree of control
mitigation through Build redundant over the environmental
! appropriate infrastructure systems threat itself. For climate
! actions prior to change, the major
! a hazard event Diversify income modification possibility
! such as sources is to slow the rate of
! preparing the climate change by
! people, Business continuity reducing GHGs and
! protecting the plans eventually by
! property and establishing GHG
! ensuring that concentrations in the
! all facilities or atmosphere (i.e.
! systems are mitigation).
! functional
! Reducing the Early warning systems
Prepared-
ness severity of a
hazard impact IEC
by improving
capability to Contingency Plans
rescue, salvage
ad recover
through actions
completed
after a hazard
impact.
46
DRR CCA
Risk Shifting the risk- Increasing capacity and Share losses This type of adaptation For agriculture,
Sharing or bearing robustness through response involves sharing - Crop
Risk responsibility to geographic, physical and the losses among a wider insurance
Transfer another party, operation separation of community.
oftentimes facilities and functions
involving the use (decentralizing services
of financial and or functions)
economic
measures Comanagement/ building
particularly alliances
insurance
systems to cover Insurance/ reinsurance
and pay for
future damages Contingency financing
Safety nets
Informal community-
based financing
mechanisms
Calamity funds
Risk “do-nothing” Take no action Bear losses All adaptation measures
retention scenario where Treat physical losses as may be compared with the
or risks are fully expenses baseline response of
acceptance accepted and Prepare shelter plans for “doing nothing” except
arrangements displaced residents bearing or accepting the
are made to pay Allocate funds for clean- losses. In theory, bearing
for financial up loss occurs when those
losses related to affected have no capacity
the hazard to respond in any other
impact or to ways (for example in
fund potential extremely poor
losses with own communities) pror where
resources the costs of adaptation
measures are considered
to be high in relation to 47
the risk or the expected
damages
Risk Management Options