Predicting the Markets

Chapter 2 Charts:
Predicting the World
Yardeni Research, Inc.

November 6, 2020

Dr. Edward Yardeni

Chief Investment Strategist

Mali Quintana
Senior Economist
[email protected]

Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Predicting the World 1-28

November 6, 2020 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 1.
3.8 3.8

3.6 TOTAL IMPORTS OF 75 COUNTRIES 3.6

1/1929-3/1933
3.4 (billion dollars, monthly) 3.4

3.2 3.2

3.0 3.0

2.8 2.8

2.6 2.6

2.4 2.4

2.2 2.2
T
2.0 2.0

1.8 1.8

1.6 1.6

1.4 1.4

1.2 1.2

1.0 1.0
yardeni.com
.8 .8
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933

Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930.

Source: League of Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February 1934, p. 51.

Figure 2.
15 15
US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: 1929-1942
(2007=100, monthly)
13 13

11 11
T B M P

9 9

7 7

5 5

yardeni.com
3 3
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942

Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. M = Mark-to-market suspended June 1938.
P = Pearl Harbor attacked December 7, 1941.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 3.
17 50
US PRODUCER PRICES:
1929-1942
(1982=100, monthly) Industrial Commodities
16
Grains
40
T B M
15
P

14 30

13

20

12

yardeni.com
11 10
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942

Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. M = Mark-to-market suspended June 1938.
P = Pearl Harbor attacked December 7, 1941.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 4.
24 24
US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: 1921-1947
(1982-1984=100, monthly, nsa)
22 22

20 20
T B P

18 18

16 16

14 14

yardeni.com
12 12
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. P = Pearl Harbor attacked December 7, 1941.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 5.
60 60
US COMMERCIAL BANK DEPOSITS: 1920-1942
(billion dollars, annually)

50 50

40 40

30 30

yardeni.com
20 20
1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942

Source: Census Bureau.

Figure 6.
500 500
DEPOSITS OF SUSPENDED US COMMERCIAL BANKS: 1929-1933
(million dollars, monthly)

400 400

300 300
yardeni.com

200 200

100 100

0 0
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933

Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin, September 1937, Table 13, p. 909.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 7.
38 38
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: 1900-1947
36 36
(percent, annual)
34 34
32 32
30 Unemployment Rates 30
Nonfarm Employees*
28 28
Civilian Labor Force**
26 26
24 24
22 22
20 20
18 18
16 16
14 14
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
yardeni.com
0 0
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945

* Persons 14 years old and older.

** Persons 16 years old and older.
Source: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial times to 1970.

Figure 8.
500 500
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE
1929-1942
(daily)
400 400

T B M P
300 300

200 200

100 100

yardeni.com
0 0
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942

Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. M = Mark-to-market suspended June 1938.
P = Pearl Harbor attacked December 7, 1941.
Source: Haver Analytics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 9.
2000 2000
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: ANNUALLY 1901-1950
(billion 1996 dollars)
1800 1800

1600 1600

1400 1400

1200 1200

1000 1000

800 800

600 600

400 400

yardeni.com
200 200
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Source: Historical Statistics of the United States.

Figure 10.
100 100
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT: QUARTERLY 1921-1939
(billion 1939 dollars, saar)

90 90

80 80

70 70

60 60

50 50

yardeni.com
40 40
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 11.
10 10
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 1948-1960
(percent, sa)

8 8

6 6

4 4

yardeni.com
2 2
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 12.
58 58
TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLLS: 1948-1960
56
(millions, sa, ratio scale) 56

54 54

52 52

50 50

48 48

46 46

44 44

yardeni.com
42 42
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 13.
4004 4004
3204 Oct 3204
S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX
2404 2404
(ratio scale)
1604 1604

804 804

yardeni.com
4 4
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

58

62

66

70

74

78

82

86

90

94

98

02

06

10

14

18

22

26
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 14.
122 122
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(2012=100, ratio scale)
102 Sep 102

82 82

62 62

42 42

22 22

yardeni.com
2 2
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
2

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

58

62

66

70

74

78

82

86

90

94

98

02

06

10

14

18

22

26
2

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 15.
700 700
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*
(1967=100, daily)

C
600 600

500 500
11/5

400 400

300 300

yardeni.com
200 200
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 2001.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 16.
175 175
BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE
(dollars per barrel, daily)
150 150

125 125

100 100

75 75

50 50
11/6

25 25

yardeni.com
0 0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 2001.

Source: Haver Analytics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 17.
120 70000
MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES 11/6
(local currency) 11/6
60000
100

50000
80

40000
C
60

30000

40
China 20000

20
Emerging Markets
10000

yardeni.com
0 0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization during December 2001.

Source: MSCI.

Figure 18.
26 26
24 CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION* 24
22 (yearly percent change) 22
20 20
18 18
16 16
14 14
12 12
10 C 10
8 8
Sep
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
-6 -6
-8 -8
-10 -10
-12 -12
-14 -14
yardeni.com
-16 -16
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* Value added basis.

Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization during December 2001.
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 19.
1.5 1.5
CHINA: POPULATION
1.4 (billions, ratio scale) 2019 1.4

1.3 1.3

1.2 1.2

1.1 1.1

1.0 1.0
yardeni.com

.9 .9

.8 .8

.7 .7

.6 .6

.5 .5
49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Source: State Statistical Bureau of the People’s Republic of China.

Figure 20.
250 3.5
CHINA: POPULATION
(10-year change, millions)
3.0

200
10-year growth rate 2.5
at annualized rate

yardeni.com 2.0

150

1.5

1.0
100

2019 .5

2019

50 .0
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Source: State Statistical Bureau of the People’s Republic of China.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 21.
100 100
CHINA: RURAL & URBAN POPULATION*
(as a percent of total population)
90 90

80 80

70 Rural 70
Urban
60 2019 60

O C
50 50

40 2019 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

yardeni.com
0 0
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

* Estimates through 2015, projections from 2016 through 2095.

Note: O = China announced Open Door Policy during December 1978. C = China joined World Trade Organization during December 2001.
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

Figure 22.
35 35
30 CHINA: URBAN POPULATION 30
25 (yearly change, millions) 25
20 20
2019
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
-5 -5
-10 -10
-15 -15
-20 -20
35 35
30 RURAL POPULATION 30
25 25
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
-5 -5
-10 -10
2019
-15 -15
yardeni.com
-20 -20
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Source: United Nations.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 23.
18 18
EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS
16 (percent) 16

14 14

12 12

10 10
Bond Yields
France
8 Germany 8
Italy
6 Spain 6

4 4

2 2

0 0
Feb
yardeni.com
-2 -2
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Note: D (7/26/12) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (6/5/2014) = negative interest-rate policy.
QE (1/22/15) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/10/16) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16. QT (12/31/2018).
Source: Financial Times.

Figure 24.
850 11/6 850
BRIC MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX
(in local currency, daily)
750 750
C

650 650

550 550

450 450

350 350

250 250

150 150

yardeni.com
50 50
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 2001.

Source: MSCI.

Page 12 / November 6, 2020 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 25.
130 130
125 WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) 125
(2010=100, swda*, ratio scale) Aug
120 120
115 115
110 110
105 105
100 100
95 95
90 90

85 85

80 80

75 75

70 70

65 65

60 60

yardeni.com
55 55
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* Seasonally and working day adjusted.

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

Figure 26.
160 160
150 WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) 150
140 (2010=100, swda*, ratio scale) Aug 140
130 130
120 120
110 110
100 100
90 90

80 80

70 70

60 60

50 50
Industrial Production
Advanced Economies
Emerging Economies
40 40

yardeni.com
30 30
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* Seasonally and working day adjusted.

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 27.
155 155
OECD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
145 (2010=100, sa, ratio scale) 145

135 135

125 Aug 125

115 115

105 105

95 95

85 85

75 75

65 65

yardeni.com
55 55
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: OECD.

Figure 28.
150 150
140 WORLD EXPORTS: VOLUME 140
130
(2010=100, sa, ratio scale) 130
120 Aug 120
110 110
100 100

90 90

80 80

70 70

60 60

50 50

40 40

yardeni.com
30 30
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 29.
23 23
WORLD EXPORTS: VALUE
(trillion dollars, annualized, nsa, ratio scale)
20 Jul 20

17 17

14 14

11 11

8 8

yardeni.com
5 5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: IMF.

Figure 30.
7.0 7.0
G7 EXPORTS
6.5 (trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale) 6.5

6.0 6.0

5.5 5.5
Aug

5.0 5.0

4.5 4.5

4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.0 3.0

yardeni.com
2.5 2.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 15 / November 6, 2020 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 31.
650 21
INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS
Jul
600 19

550 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 17

(1967=100)

500 Value of World Exports (IMF) 15

(trillion dollars, annualized, nsa)
11/5
450 13

400 11

350 9

300 7

250 5

yardeni.com
200 3
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF.

Figure 32.
75 75
WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE): G7 vs REST OF WORLD
(percent of total world exports using 12-month averages)
70 Jul 70

65 65
Rest of World
60 G7 60

55 55

50 50

45 45

40 40

35 35

30 Jul 30

yardeni.com
25 25
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 33.
60 60
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: GLOBAL
(sa)
55 55
Oct

50 50

45 45

40 40

35 35

Global PMIs
30 Composite 30
Manufacturing
Non-Manufacturing
25 25

yardeni.com
20 20
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.

Figure 34.
60 60
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: ADVANCED ECONOMIES

55 55
Oct
50 50

45 45

40 Advanced Economies PMIs 40

Composite
Manufacturing
35 Non-Manufacturing 35

30 30

25 25

20 20

yardeni.com
15 15
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 35.
58 58
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: EMERGING ECONOMIES
56 56
Oct
54 54

52 52

50 50

48 48

46 46

44 44

42 42

40 40

38 Emerging Economies 38
Composite Index
36 Manufacturing 36

34 Non-Manufacturing 34

32 32
yardeni.com
30 30
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.

Figure 36.
103 103
OECD: LEADING INDICATORS*
102 102

101 101

100 100

99 99
Sep

98 98

97 97

96 96

95 95

94 94

93 93

yardeni.com
92 92
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* A reading above 100 that is rising predicts expansion, above 100 and falling a downturn, below 100 and falling a slowdown, and below 100 and rising
a recovery.
Source: Haver Analytics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 37.
103 103
OECD: LEADING INDICATORS*

101 101

99 99
Sep

97 97

95 US 95
Europe
Japan
93 93

91 91

yardeni.com
89 89
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* A reading above 100 that is rising predicts expansion, above 100 and falling a downturn, below 100 and falling a slowdown, and below 100 and rising
a recovery.
Source: OECD and Haver Analytics.

Figure 38.
106 106
BRICs: LEADING INDICATORS*
104 104
Sep
102 102

100 100

98 98

96 96

94 94
Brazil
92 China 92
India
90 Russia 90

88 88

86 86

yardeni.com
84 84
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* A reading above 100 that is rising predicts expansion, above 100 and falling a downturn, below 100 and falling a slowdown, and below 100 and rising
a recovery.
Source: OECD and Haver Analytics.

Page 19 / November 6, 2020 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 39.
130 6
EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR* & REAL GDP
4
120
2
110
0

100 -2

-4
90 Oct

-6
80
-8
Real GDP
70 (yearly percent change) -10

-12
60 Economic Sentiment Indicator*
(long-term average=100, sa)
-14
50
-16
yardeni.com
40 -18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* The overall economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is derived from the industrial (weight 40%), service (30%), consumer (20%), construction (5%), and
retail trade (5%) confidence indicators.
Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities, European Commission, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 40.
120 120
EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(2015=100, sa)
115 115

110 110
Total Excluding
105 Construction 105
Manufacturing
100 100
Aug
95 95

90 90

85 85

80 80

75 75

70 70

65 65
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: Statistical Office of European Communities.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 41.
145 145
EURO ZONE RETAIL SALES VOLUMES
140 EXCLUDING AUTOS & MOTOR CYCLES 140
135 (2015=100) 135
130 Eurozone 130
125 Germany 125
France
120 120
Italy
115 Spain 115
110 Sep 110
105 105
100 100
95 95
90 90
85 85
80 80
75 75
70 70
yardeni.com
65 65
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.

Figure 42.
115 115
GERMANY: IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX
(2015=100, sa)
110 110

105 105

100 100

95 95
Oct
90 90

85 85

80 80

75 Total 75
Current Situation Index
70
Expectations Index 70

65 65

yardeni.com
60 60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Ifo.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 43.
120 120
JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(2010=100)
115 115

110 110

105 105

100 100

95 95

90 90

Jul
85 85

80 80

75 75

yardeni.com
70 70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry.

Figure 44.
700 700
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS
650 (billions US dollars, saar) 650

600 600

550 550
Oct
500 500
South Korea
450 Taiwan 450

400 400

350 Sep 350

300 300

250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100
yardeni.com
50 50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 22 / November 6, 2020 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 45.
24 24
CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE*
(trillion yuan, saar, ratio scale)
19 Oct 19

14 14

9 9
Total
Exports
Imports

yardeni.com
4 4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Excluding Hong Kong.

Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

Figure 46.
4.0 40000
CHINA: RAILWAYS FREIGHT TRAFFIC & IMPORTS PLUS EXPORTS
3.8
Sep
3.6

3.4
30000
3.2

3.0

2.8
20000
2.6 Railways Freight Traffic
(100 million tons, nsa)
2.4

2.2 Imports Plus Exports

(billion yuan, saar)
10000
2.0

1.8

1.6
yardeni.com
1.4 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs, and Haver Analytics.

Page 23 / November 6, 2020 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 47.
20 20
US EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN NOMINAL GDP
(as a percent of nominal GDP)

15 15

Q3

10 10

5 5
Goods & Services
Imports
Exports

yardeni.com
0 0
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 48.
30 30
WORLD EXPORTS VOLUME & US REAL MERCHANDISE EXPORTS + IMPORTS
(yearly percent change)

20 20

10 10

0 0
Sep

-10 -10

Growth Rates (y/y)

-20
World Exports: Volume -20
US Real Exports + Imports

yardeni.com
-30 -30
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 24 / November 6, 2020 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 49.
2.6 2.6
JAPAN: LIVE BIRTHS & DEATHS
(12-month sum, millions)
2.4 2.4

2.2 2.2

2.0 2.0

1.8 1.8

1.6 Live Births 1.6

Deaths
1.4 1.4

1.2 1.2

1.0 1.0

.8 .8
Jun
.6 .6

yardeni.com
.4 .4
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

Figure 50.
15 15
US: REAL GDP
(yearly percent change)
10 10

5 5

0 0

Q3

-5 -5

-10 -10

yardeni.com
-15 -15
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 51.
16 16
EUROZONE: PRIVATE SECTOR* LOANS OUTSTANDING AT MFIs** yardeni.com
(trillion euros, sa)
14 14
Total Private Sector
Households (including non-profit institutions)
Nonfinancial Corporations
12 Sep 12
Others***

10 10

8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Total Private Sector includes Households (including non-profit institutions), Nonfinancial corporations, Other financial intermediaries, insurance
corporations, and pension funds.
** Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Euro System of Central Banks (ESCB) and Money Market Funds (MMFs).
*** Others include other financial intermediaries, insurance corporations, and pension funds.
Source: Haver Analytics and ECB.
Figure 52.
120 120
EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
EXCLUDING CONSTRUCTION
110 110

100 100
Aug

90 90

80 80

70 70
Eurozone
Germany
60 60
France
Italy
50
Spain 50

yardeni.com
40 40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 26 / November 6, 2020 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 53.
55 55
50 CHINA: REAL GDP 50
45 45
40 40
35 35
30 30
25 25
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 Q3 5
0 0
-5 -5
-10 -10
-15 -15
-20 yearly percent change -20
-25 quarterly percent change, saar -25
-30 -30
-35 -35
-40 -40
-45 -45
-50 -50
-55 -55
yardeni.com
-60 -60
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics.

Figure 54.
30 200
CHINA: BANK LOANS
(trillions, nsa)

25 Sep
Sep
US dollars
150

20 Yuan

15 100

10

50

yardeni.com
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: People’s Bank of China.

Page 27 / November 6, 2020 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 55.
12 12
CHINA: PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
(yearly percent change)
10 10

8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0

-2 Sep -2

-4 -4

-6 -6

-8 -8

yardeni.com
-10 -10
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

Figure 56.
18 18
GLOBAL POPULATION: YOUNGER CHILDREN & OLDER ADULTS
(as a percent of total population)
16 16

14 14

Age
12 Under 5 12
65 & Older

10 10

8 8

6 6

yardeni.com
4 4
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

* Estimates through 2019, then projections through 2050.

Source: United Nations.

Page 28 / November 6, 2020 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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