B R I E F#1:

INITIAL INSIGHTS ON UNCT

COVID-19 RESPONSE
MAY 2020

WORKING DOCUMENT
PREPARED BY UNDP
 The United Nations has mobilized the full capacity of the UN system through
its 131 country teams serving 162 countries and territories, to support
national authorities in developing public health preparedness and response
plans to the COVID-19. Over the next 12 to 18 months, the UN’s support
will be delivered through the UN global framework for the immediate
socio-economic response to COVID-19. The socio-economic response
complements the UN health response, led by WHO, and will deliver
support to countries across five pillars of action.

This brief presents a summary of key findings from 51 country

socioeconomic impact assessment (SEIA), 5 regional reports; and a survey
(91 responses as of 9 May 2020) undertaken by UNDP with UNDP Resident
Representatives1 aimed at collecting information on UNDP’s engagement
in interagency efforts to assess and respond to the socio-economic impact
of the COVID-19 crisis at country level. Ten of the country assessments
state that they were conducted in collaboration with UN agencies and/or
IFIs, and nearly all survey responses indicate interagency collaboration
in developing the socio-economic assessments.

It is important to note that most countries have launched a series of

rapid assessments of the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19, with some
countries still lacking the necessary data to undertake in-depth analysis
for affected sectors and population groups. Most countries have also
indicated that socioeconomic assessments will continue to be carried
out as the impact of the pandemic is unfolding, with the biggest impact
of the global economic depression still to be felt. Many reports analyze
future socioeconomic impacts and potential scenarios.

1
91 responses as of 9 May 2020.

BRIEF#1: INITIAL INSIGHTS ON UNCT COVID-19 RESPONSE

 GLOBAL INSIGHTS
ON THE CRISIS

Confirmed cases of COVID-19 infections globally into global value chains (GVCs) with low-skilled
have surpassed 4 million people, with close and labor-intensive manufacturing will witness
to 300.000 deaths2 across 210 countries and major lay-offs, unemployment, and loss of income
territories. A high incidence of COVID-19 cases for an already vulnerable group of workers.
is concentrated in high-income countries such
as the USA, Spain, Italy and UK, with rapid surges In some countries, the pandemic is also
being seen in Russia. Among developing countries, exacerbating levels of already existing fiscal stress
current hotspots are found in Turkey, Brazil due to loss of revenue combined with high levels of
and Iran. debt, debt service costs, and capital flight, further
severely inhibiting some governments’ capacity to
While the pandemic’s economic impact is expected respond to the crisis. Eighteen emerging economies
to be sizable globally, it will be felt differently across have already had their sovereign ratings cut this
countries depending on their underlying economic year and face significant constraints in accessing
and demographic structures. Most countries, financial markets and in ability to service existing
however, are facing grim trade-offs between debt. Additionally, countries affected by fragility,
livelihoods and lives as they aim to mitigate the conflict and violence suffer from already weak
spread and impact of the COVID-19 crisis. health and socio-economic support systems,
leaving societies more vulnerable to the spread
Internal and external channels of transmission and impact of the virus.
of the COVID-19 socioeconomic impacts will
also vary across countries and regions. These The country SEIA reports reveal a set of emerging
different, often interlinked, transmission channels global insights, inter alia:
or risk-factors are key determinants of countries’
ability to manage and respond to the pandemic. • The incidence of COVID-19 cases does not
In several countries, COVID-19 adds to several necessarily match the socioeconomic impact
already existing financial, climate, health and/ felt by countries: Whereas most developing
or social crises, and threatens to roll-back countries are thought to be at the early stages of
development by decades. the epidemic, they are already dealing with great
disruptions to the economy, jobs and livelihoods
For instance, reduction in economic activities have due to the economic shocks.
led to a reduction in the demand for commodities.
Commodity prices are falling sharply across the • Getting health systems ready is a first
board, especially for energy commodities, causing challenge: It is estimated that there are only
significant reductions in government revenue 2.2 ICU beds per 100,000 in India, and far
and foreign exchange for commodity-export lower in Nigeria with only 0.07 per 100,000.4
dependent countries.3 Countries deeply integrated While we know that COVID-19 has a steep

2
WHO COVID-19 Dashboard (as of 10 May 2020) indicates 3,884,434 confirmed cases and 272,859 deaths worldwide.
3
Commodity dependent countries include 65% of countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Half of the countries in Latin America and
the Caribbean, and half of the countries in East Asia and the Pacific (UNCTAD).
4
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31923030 and www.mckinsey.com/industries/pharmaceuticals-and-medical-products/our-insights/
winning-in-nigeria-pharmas-next-frontier

BRIEF#1: INITIAL INSIGHTS ON UNCT COVID-19 RESPONSE 1

 age-gradient of risk, the young population-age high debt to GDP and debt servicing costs.
of many lower income countries could help The economic shock from COVID has reduced
keep fatalities down. But if extremely weak revenue and foreign exchange needed to service
health systems are not urgently ramped up, debt, and at the same time increased pressures
such age-advantages are likely to be cancelled to borrow to respond to the crisis. Eighteen
out by higher fatalities due to low quantity and emerging market sovereigns have already been
quality of care, and the compounding effects downgraded so far this year driving borrowing
of co-morbidities. Increased pressure on health costs up further.7
care systems from COVID-19 will disrupt other
health and medical services and lead to higher • Poverty and inequality: Countries with a high
excess mortality. Imperial College’s COVID-19 number of poor people or people living close
response team estimates that in high burden to the poverty line are at high risk in terms
settings, HIV, TB and malaria related deaths over of both loss of lives and loss of livelihoods
5 years may be increased by up to 10%, 20% and if governments do not urgently find a way of
36%, respectively, compared to if there were no providing targeted relief and ensure access to
COVID-19 epidemic.5 essential services. Estimates from the World
Bank suggest that COVID-19 could push an
• Tourism and commodity dependence: As additional 40-60 million people into extreme
international travel has come to a halt so poverty. 80% of this population is expected to be
has the economies of tourism-dependent in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.8
countries. Many of these countries are also
highly dependent on food imports, and risk • Social protection and informality: Mechanisms
facing a foreign exchange shortage. Countries for identifying and adequate targeting vulnerable
overly reliant on commodity exports are facing a groups are being called in many countries.
similar shock, especially energy exporters, with Workers in the informal sector, who earn low
oil prices having fallen by more than 50% since wages, have little to no savings and access
the beginning of the year. to social protection. They are therefore highly
vulnerable to income shocks. The International
• Remittances dependence: Millions of migrants Labor Organization (ILO) has warned that
have already lost their jobs and income, thereby COVID-19 threatens the livelihoods of 1.6 billion
cutting off an important lifeline for poor and workers in the informal economy- nearly half
vulnerable households in their home countries. It the global workforce.9 In the first month of the
is estimated that remittances to low- and lower crisis it is estimated that informal workers lost
middle-income countries will fall by almost 20% 60% of their income. Workers in Africa and the
this year.6 Americas have been hit the hardest with an 81%
reduction in both regions.10
• A lurking debt crisis: Even prior to COVID-19
fiscal stress had reached high levels in many • A disproportionate impact on women: Economic
emerging and developing economies with shocks affect women disproportionately as

5
www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-19-hiv-tb-malaria/
6
www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/04/22/world-bank-predicts-sharpest-decline-of-remittances-in-recent-history
7
www.economist.com/briefing/2020/05/02/which-emerging-markets-are-in-most-financial-peril
8
Estimating how much global poverty will increase due to COVID-19 is challenging given the lack of data, difficulty in setting economic growth
projections, and defining how growth will impact the poor (source: World Bank Data Blog, 20 April 2020: The impact of COVDI19 (Coronavirus)
on Global Poverty by Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Christoph Lakner, R. Andres Aguilar, and Haoyu Wu).
9
www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_743036/lang--en/index.htm
10
Ibid.

2 BRIEF#1: INITIAL INSIGHTS ON UNCT COVID-19 RESPONSE

 they earn less, have less savings, and more • Education crisis: Learning inequalities are
frequently hold insecure jobs. It is estimated widening and impacting the opportunities of
that 70% of women in developing economies an entire generation. This is especially due
work in the informal sector with little or no to differences in access to remote-learning
social protection, and that women aged 25-34 opportunities provided through solutions which
are 25% more likely to live in extreme poverty rely on internet access. Nationwide closures
than men.11 Furthermore, as schools close are impacting over 72% of the world’s student
and health systems become overwhelmed, population (1,268,164,088 students) across
women and girls take on a disproportionate 168 countries (UNESCO).15
amount of additional unpaid care work. Women
also make up a higher share of healthcare • Digital divide: Digitalization is becoming the
workers – globally 70% – and are thus more new normal for many services and businesses,
exposed to infection. As examples, 72% and but the digital divide is exacerbating inequalities
66% of infected healthcare workers in Spain and among the haves and have-nots (e.g. access to
Italy are women.12 basic services, e-businesses, etc.). About 86%
of the world’s population do not have reliable
• Violence against women and girls is increasing broadband internet, limiting their ability to work
globally as the COVID-19 pandemic adds to remotely, engage in distance education, or be
economic and social stresses, and measures socially connected during shutdowns. Bridging
to restrict contact and movement are confining the digital divide will be a critical factor in the
people to their homes. Crowded households, socioeconomic response in many countries.
substance abuse, limited access to services,
and reduced peer support are exacerbating • Risk of civil and political unrest: At least
these conditions.13 18 national elections and referendums have
already been postponed. In some context, such
• Food insecurity: Some countries are at risk of postponements can heighten tensions, and lead
great disruptions to food production and food to increased risk of unrest.
markets, especially countries that are food
import dependent. Countries facing foreign
exchange losses are the most vulnerable to
such disruptions, but countries with a loss of
purchasing power for poor people are also at
risk. The World Food Programme (WFP) reckons
that as a result of COVID-19 265 million people
in low and lower middle-income countries could
suffer from acute hunger by the end of the year
if swift action is not taken.14

11
www.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2020/04/policy-brief-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-women
12
Ibid.
13
Ibid.
14
https://insight.wfp.org/covid-19-will-almost-double-people-in-acute-hunger-by-end-of-2020-59df0c4a8072
15
Note: Figures correspond to the number of learners enrolled at pre-primary, primary, lower-secondary, and upper-secondary levels of education
[ISCED levels 0 to 3], as well as at tertiary education levels [ISCED levels 5 to 8]. Enrolment figures based on latest UNESCO Institute for
Statistics data.

BRIEF#1: INITIAL INSIGHTS ON UNCT COVID-19 RESPONSE 3

 SNAPSHOT OF
POLICY RESPONSES

Responses to COVID-19 are taking place at Seven no-regret actions: Looking across pillars,
varying speeds, and multiple levels of scale across seven trends in the response to COVID-19 have
programme countries. Below is a summary of emerged. They are multifaceted and interlocked,
emerging pathways, trends, as well as responses and include: i) targeted technical activities
across the five pillars of the UNDS’ socio-economic necessary for translating ideas into action (task
response framework, with descriptions of forces, planning); ii) immediate direct support to
corresponding interagency actions (primarily fill gaps in resources (procurement of supplies,
based on UNDP survey responses). technology distribution); and iii) large-scale for
medium-to-long term infrastructure changes
Three emerging pathways: The sequencing of (reskilling labor, moving institutions online,
policy responses followed by different countries monitoring systems). The trends are:
are not uniform, but three major pathways
are emerging: 1. Task force development for targeted and
tailored responses to specific issues, or
I. the health-crisis first pathway, starts with protection of specific populations
a surge in Covid-19 cases, followed by
containment efforts with effects on jobs, 2. Procurement of medical supplies, ignition
income and livelihoods (this is the case of supply production, and support to supply
observed in most of Asia, Europe, parts distribution.
of Africa, and parts of Latin America;
3. Reskilling and upskilling labor affected by
II. the socio-economic crisis first pathway, business disruptions
starts as governments pre-empt the health
crisis with a shutdown of businesses, jobs, 4. Awareness building, safety advice, and
gatherings, and a closure of borders before combating misinformation
the pandemic has surged (this is the case
5. Institutional transitions to digital
observed in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa,
environments and online work
Latin America and most rural areas around
the developing world; 6. Repurposing of existing infrastructure
to facilitate large-scale distribution and
III. and the fragile/crisis context pathway, in
monitoring
which the humanitarian dimension takes
precedence, and logistics for essential 7. Recovery planning focused on anticipated
supplies, food, and medical services are medium-to-long term issues
critical centerpieces of the response.

4 BRIEF#1: INITIAL INSIGHTS ON UNCT COVID-19 RESPONSE

RESPONSES ACROSS THE basket of funds to boost livelihoods and support
FIVE PILLARS vulnerable communities. Furthermore, UN Women
engaged religious leaders, and women and youth
Health first: protecting health services and
organizations to provide essential supplies
systems during the crisis
for women in vulnerable communities. New
COVID-19 has revealed massive shortages in
partnerships are also emerging between UNFPA,
resources, ranging from sanitation products,
UN Women and others to respond to issues of
basic medical supplies and virus-specific medical
domestic violence.
equipment, and the UNDS is supporting countries
in increasing access to necessary equipment. In Beyond physical resources, the pandemic has
Cameroon, UNICEF worked with local authorities illuminated needs for rapid knowledge building
to install hand-washing stations and provide face and growth in a range of competencies to
masks to vulnerable groups. In Morocco, WHO protect people. In Turkey, WHO and UNDP are
and UNDP purchased 10,000 COVID-19 tests. In providing technical know-how to the Ministry of
Niger, UNHCR and UNDP are supporting soap Health on outreach to the most disadvantaged
production in refugee and IDP camps. In Nigeria, populations including women, migrants, refugees
UNDP procured 4.7 million surgical gloves and and the elderly.
sampling kits. In Ghana, UNICEF is leading a
partnership to open up testing laboratories at the Economic response & recovery: protecting
sub-national level. jobs, small medium enterprises, and
informal sector workers
Safety and health measures are also being taken
Some countries are repurposing existing
to maintain foundational governance processes,
infrastructure of large-scale programmes as a
including elections. For example, to move ahead
quick and effective way to reach entire populations.
with upcoming elections, the Central African
In Cambodia, the ILO and UNDP supported the
Republic is ensuring that all 4.000 voter enrolment
rapid roll out of cash transfers to informal workers,
centers and polling stations are equipped with
using the existing national ID system. Malawi
COVID-kits for voters.
expanded E-HIN, an electronic tracking system,
to supply chain monitoring, including control and
Protecting people: social protection and management of essential supplies.
basic services
New and expedited basic service delivery for broad Some countries are taking innovative steps to
populations, and social protections targeting highly engage businesses that are the most vulnerable
vulnerable populations, are being supported. to the effects of COVID-19. In Serbia, WHO and
UNDP launched a Challenge Prize for local SMEs
Vulnerable populations including women, the
to come up with solutions related to medical
elderly, persons with disabilities, and people living
supply production and beyond. The ILO provided
in poverty are being supported thorough a wide
advice to Belarus on time-bound tax relief
range of initiatives. Examples include Bhutan,
and income smoothing measures to support
where sign language interpreters are available for
business continuity, especially for MSMEs and the
daily press conferences. In Cameroon, the UNCT
self-employed.
is working with the government to create a joint

BRIEF#1: INITIAL INSIGHTS ON UNCT COVID-19 RESPONSE 5

 Macroeconomic response and multilateral For example, in Turkey, UNESCO and UNDP
collaboration adapted audio messages in multiple languages
Governments are moving their own work online to encourage healthy behavior and address
and creating digital services. A massive amount misinformation, and worked with radio stations
of software licenses for video conferencing, to disseminate these. In Nepal, the UNCT is
internet connections, and technologies are being supporting the Government to set up call centers
distributed to governments. The Senegalese to address questions about COVID-19 prevention,
government received 1000 internet connections attention and care. In Moldova, UNDP, WHO,
and 300 Zoom software licenses from UNDP. In UNFPA, UNICEF, the European Space Agency and
some places, core services have become digital, private sector companies, established a Big Data
such as in Gambia where a Virtual Court has been for COVID-19 partnership that uses cross-sector
set up to focus on bail applications, through which datasets (e.g. mobility, electricity consumption,
121 inmates have been granted bail. internet traffic) to better understand and tackle
emergent problems.
Interagency task forces are emerging to focus on
sectors of economies hit hardest, and populations
most vulnerable to the COVID-19 related shocks.
One example is in Moldova, where UNICEF,
UNFPA, UN Women, OHCHR, UNDP and the WB
formed a task force to support the Ministry of
Education, Culture and Research to respond to
the challenges and needs of the education system
during the crisis.

Responding to the pandemic has required heavy

investment in short-term responses, but planning
for the future is increasingly becoming a top
priority. Some countries have already been able to
begin this process. In Turkey, UNHCR and UNDP
are working on 3RP, the Regional Refugee and
Resilience Plan, to support Syrian refugees and
host communities in recovery.

Social cohesion and community resilience

Countries are struggling to understand the
evolution of the virus, and to educate their
populations on how to stay safe. As such, creating
effective mass communications has become
a critical component of response efforts, and
countries are tackling communications creatively.

6 BRIEF#1: INITIAL INSIGHTS ON UNCT COVID-19 RESPONSE

LOOKING FORWARD &
REMAINING CHALLENGES

Many challenges remain, that will require our attention as we move forward. Perhaps the key challenge
is the time horizon of the crisis, which has an unknown endpoint, tied to the availability of vaccines
and/or a cure. This means most countries need to prepare for the long haul –including weathering the
largest global economic recession since the 1930s. There are many pressure points that will inform the
trajectory of the response and future recovery pathways.

1.
Countries are struggling to find the appropriate balance between the health and economic
response, while managing trade-offs. One example of how this is being handled is in Nigeria,
where the World Bank and UNDP are developing a policy brief on “containment alternatives”,
a balancing act in lockdown and opening up of businesses.

2.
It is increasingly apparent that debt relief (moratoriums, cancellations, etc.) and debt
restructuring is necessary, and spend significant time and energy will be needed to get
this right.

3.
Resource mobilization continues to be a priority in many countries. Right now, some
are able to mobilize funds, and some are being allowed to repurpose existing funding;
However, many countries remain uncertain and on edge about current and sustained
resource shortages.

4.
Expertise is in short supply. One example of providing support to countries with a shortage
of expertise is in DRC, where UNDP has deployed experts (economists, statisticians and
monitoring and evaluation specialists) to work in government for six months.

5.
Transitioning governments to e-services and digital institutions is taking time, and needs
to be fast-tracked wherever possible. In some countries, fast tracking is not an option
because the foundational digital infrastructure does not exist. For example, in Tajikistan,
there is a general lack of connectivity and the internet is expensive, so many partners lack
high speed connection.

6.
There is insufficient attention being paid to mid-to-long term recovery in many countries,
and it will be critical supporting countries in moving smoothly from immediate relief, to
strategic planning for longer term recovery.

BRIEF#1: INITIAL INSIGHTS ON UNCT COVID-19 RESPONSE 7

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