In The Blunder Land of Indian Politics

In the Blunderland of Indian Politics
The press conference of Dr. Man Mohan Singh, Prime Minister, on February
16, 2011, on issues of corruption and scams was on expected lines with
feeble attempts to cover positions at best.
In 2009 when UPA II won second term and formed the government, they
would have hardly imagined that their work in progress of UPA I would
become a millstone around their neck so soon. 2G Spectrum deal of telecom
ministry, S-band spectrum deal of ISRO, CWG Scam, and several others
have opened Pandora’s box and everyday involvement of more and more
politicians, senior bureaucrats and corporate bigwigs is coming out. CBI’s
hands are full investigating all the links and prime suspects under the
watchful eyes of the Supreme Court. The conspiracies, the cover ups,
political maneuvering, and murky transactions leading the trails to political
bosses and corporate biggies have been the flavor of the month. The ruling
combine has been jolted like never before and faces stark reality of
collapsing under its own weight.
Aam Admi left in lurch
The impact left by the recent scams on the aam admi has been awesome.
People have always known politicians and bureaucrats to be corrupt and they
discounted their making illegal money routinely as part of the rotten system
of the Indian polity. But what is different this time is that they even do not
know the number of zeroes to be counted to understand the loot by a
minister. And scam a day keeps them perplexed enough to lose their
patience with the system. And this loot of public money at a time when they
are harassed everyday by the runaway double digit inflation for almost two
years. Prices of all essential commodities and food items have been going
through the roof and making big holes in already shrunk pockets. Rich are
becoming richer by fraudulent means leaving the poor uncared for by the
system. The anger is gathering momentum and will leave lasting impression
in the time to come.
The Congress and BJP, being the main political heavyweight parties, have to
bear the brunt though small regional parties are also on the receiving end
from the public as well as media. In last few months Congress has not only
lost credibility it has also lost the public support. Prime Minister Dr. Man
Mohan Singh is no longer being given benefit of doubt and is being blamed
for weak leadership. His stoic silence, inaction or inability to stop the rot has
become a matter of ridicule.
Sonia Gandhi, the Party President has distanced herself and gone into shell
with party spokespersons handling media and glossing over the facts. And
Rahul Gandhi, so called crown prince of the party, has told his men to forget
2G scam and focus on UP!
Impact on Congress
Congress is yet to assess the full impact of the scams under its rule and may
have to struggle to stay afloat as the Joint Parliamentary Committee probe
gets into action mode. One thing is sure, that the party will find going tough
as and when elections are held. Maharashtra state has been very important
for Congress party and the state has had high profile exit of its chief minister
Ashok Chavan due to scam. Another former chief minister Vilasrao
Deshmikh ,who had to quit in aftermath of 26 /11, has been under fire from
Supreme Court for protecting money lenders in villages. In turn he has been
elevated as Union Minister of Rural Development! The new Chief Minister
Prithviraj Chavan is facing prospects of being connected with his PMO days
and ISRO scam. The anger is wide spread at all levels of socio economic
strata.
Andhra Pradesh has been stronghold of Congress. But after death of YSR
the situation has changed and, with his son Jagan Reddy on warpath, a
hurried merger of Praja Rajyam of the film star Chiranjivi with Congress
party may bolster the weak creaking planks. However, the workers of Praja
Rajyam are unhappy with merger since the party was formed as an alternate
for better governance. While Chiranjivi’s star power may yield some
benefits, it is not clear yet if it is a winning strategy for Congress.
In UP, Congress has performed very poorly notwithstanding Rahul Gandhi’s

personal focus. Chief Minister Mayawati has obsession with her own statues
and governance has been last priority. Her serving ministers have been
involved with criminal activities and women have been on the receiving end
of atrocities.
In Bihar, Congress was decimated in state elections and Nitish Kumar’s JDU
and BJP combine came back with thumping majority on the plank of
development and law and order.
In Jammu & Kashmir, Congress is important ally of ruling party National

Conference. While opposition party PDP has taken unusual stand gifting
away territory to China, Congress is yet to formulate a vision document.
Since it is playing a key role from Delhi, the picture will emerge as
interlocutors come out with more & more of clarity and preparations of
negotiations with Pakistan progress in due course. Whatever happens in
Kashmir will be due to national response and not just of the state
government.
In West Bengal assembly elections are due but Congress is very weak and
poorly positioned. In the North East there are charges of high corruption to
the tune of Rs. 58,000 crores emerging from BJP pointing fingers at PM
who represents the region in the Parliament.
BJP’s Achille’s Heel
In Karnataka, Congress has been playing a political game with BJP through
its resident representative in the Governor. But the government has survived
in the backdrop of potential land scam by the CM Yeddyurappa. In
Karnataka, Yeddyurappa is epitomizing corruption at the moment and
weakening the moral high ground of BJP at the Center. Unless there is
change in leadership in Karnataka and charges of corruption are proved
wrong, BJP has a double edged sword to play with.
What Next?
If elections were held today Congress is sure to get drubbing. But then who
is likely to be the winner? That is a million dollar question. BJP as the main
opposition party must be happy due to the situation Congress is in. How can
BJP translate this into electoral gains in future elections? It will largely
depend on its strategy to consolidate gains and also ward off corruption
charges in the states ruled by BJP.
Leadership Issues
Currently, BJP is perceived as party with weak leadership. No clear and

strong GenNext leader is being projected to challenge Congress led by Sonia
Gandhi. Unless alternative to replace Congress is seen to be clean and strong
enough to lead the nation, BJP will find it difficult to leverage current
advantage for electoral gains. BJP must therefore focus on developing long
term strategy building up on current gains. It must project clearly the
undisputed leadership of future & be seen to be currently in command since
unlike Congress it is not led by Nehru Gandhi family. It would take time for
people to accept and evaluate new leadership till the call for elections.
Congress itself will have to sort out issue of leadership of next government.
Will it be Rahul Gandhi? What is his acceptance quotient with people? What
is his track record of performance to justify such an elevation? Will he be
able to manage with first generation politicians of Congress still hanging
around or will he lead a young inexperienced team? Will somebody read the
Egyptian experience in transfer of power from father to son?
BJP must realize that it is unlikely to get another opportunity of so many

scams at the doorsteps of Congress with which to beat it in the elections. If
BJP is unable to capitalize and consolidate its gains to get back to Raisina
Hill, it would be a big blunder and a tragedy of democracy! Imagine,
Congress coming back to power in 2014 or earlier, all the scams, unforeseen
and unprecedented corruption in high places notwithstanding!
Power of People
Strong democratic foundation, institutions and experience of six decades sets

India apart from countries like Egypt, Tunisia, Iran, Yemen and Algeria.
However, corruption in high places and autocracy has unleashed people
power to usher in change in these countries. Do we have any lessons to learn
early enough?
So, exciting times are ahead and hope the political parties take lessons
seriously and do not underestimate the power of people. People want to see
the guilty behind the bars and the monster of corruption being reined in
effectively. Let us hope that the political parties do not commit blunders to
fritter away the best opportunity to usher in political reforms and take the
bull of corruption by the horns. One can expect a polarization among small
political parties on these lines to extend support to the ruling as well as main
opposition party. A winning strategy has to be built around this approach.
May people be the winners? Until then happy counting of zeroes!
Vijay M. Deshpande
Corporate Advisor,
Strategic Management Initiative,
Pune
February 16, 2011

In The Blunder Land of Indian Politics

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In The Blunder Land of Indian Politics

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In the Blunderland of Indian Politics

Aam Admi left in lurch

In UP, Congress has performed very poorly notwithstanding Rahul Gandhi’s

In Jammu & Kashmir, Congress is important ally of ruling party National

BJP’s Achille’s Heel

Currently, BJP is perceived as party with weak leadership. No clear and

BJP must realize that it is unlikely to get another opportunity of so many

Strong democratic foundation, institutions and experience of six decades sets

May people be the winners? Until then happy counting of zeroes!

February 16, 2011

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