European Spot Gas Markets-11-Jan-2021
European Spot Gas Markets-11-Jan-2021
European Spot Gas Markets-11-Jan-2021
com/energy | 20 Pages
European Spot
Gas Markets
1 MarketsBritain 2
2 News Ukraine gas TSO reduces
3 Secondary data
Trades 19
Section
Section
Section
Belgium 3 Polish short-haul amid overbooking 13 ICE Natural gas futures 18
Netherlands 4 Outlook for 2021: Italian gas 14 OCM data 18
Germany 5 Daily oil summary 15 Beach assessment 18
Central Europe 6 Oil market price assessment 18
France 7 National grid daily capacity 18
Spain 8
Italy 9
Turkey 10
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record highs
WDNW 67.900* 68.100* 6.625 T 97.6%
BOM 66.750* 67.250* 5.700 B n/a
February '21 67.100* 67.175* 6.188 B 79.7%
March '21 59.600* 59.700* 3.950 B 72.5%
Outlook April '21 50.875* 51.050* 2.125 B 53.0%
Below average temperatures forecast in week 3 May '21 44.700* 45.200* 1.063 I 52.3%
Sparse LNG cargo schedule on the horizon June '21 42.575* 42.950* 0.675 I 52.2%
Asian premiums to continue to attract LNG cargoes away from July '21 41.975* 42.475* 0.738 I < 20 days
Europe Q2 '21 46.050* 46.400* 1.288 S 52.1%
Q3 '21 43.050* 43.400* 0.738 S 47.5%
The British gas NBP front end soared further on Monday, driven Q4 '21 51.000* 51.375* 1.138 S 38.3%
by bullish weather fundamentals. This momentum carried out over Q1 '22 54.250* 54.625* 1.038 S 36.0%
Q2 '22 39.775* 40.050* 0.038 I 26.4%
to the curve which was supported by tight import supply.
Q3 '22 38.475* 38.750* 0.038 I 27.3%
Despite the British gas grid being consistently oversupplied
Q4 '22 44.675* 44.875* 0.325 I 24.6%
during the session, the Day-ahead rose to its highest closing value Q1 '23 49.125* 49.325* 0.325 I 22.3%
since November 2018. According to National Grid forecasts, de- Q2 '23 37.100* 37.200* 0.425 I 26.0%
mand is expected to rise by over 15mcm day on day on Tuesday. Q3 '23 35.800* 35.900* 0.425 I 26.9%
LNG import margins to Britain are already extremely tight, with Q4 '23 42.800* 43.300* 0.625 I < 20 days
no cargoes currently being scheduled to deliver to British terminals Gas Year 21 45.875* 46.200* 0.563 I 31.6%
after Monday. Gas Year 22 41.675* 41.825* 0.363 I 22.9%
Due to severely limited imports, the British gas grid is set to Year 2022 44.300* 44.575* 0.350 I 27.8%
heavily depend on pipeline flow and storage withdrawals. Storage Year 2023 41.200* 41.425* 0.438 I < 20 days
Summer 21 44.550* 44.900* 1.013 B 49.4%
withdrawal renominations were revised up by over 12mcm intra-
Winter 21 52.625* 53.000* 1.088 B 37.1%
day to nearly 18mcm. Storage inventory is currently well below
Summer 22 39.125* 39.400* 0.038 B 26.8%
historical levels from the past two years. Winter 22 46.900* 47.100* 0.325 B 23.4%
Demand for power generation also looks to increase as forecast Summer 23 36.450* 36.550* 0.425 B 26.4%
wind output is set to fall day on day, averaging just under 10GW Winter 23 44.850* 45.350* 0.625 I 25.2%
on Tuesday. Wind generation is even sparser for the remainder of Summer 24 35.700* 36.200* 0.425 I 31.6%
the week, averaging just over 6GW. Winter 24 44.900* 45.400* 0.625 I 22.5%
A cold spell is anticipated pm the front end as weekly tem- Summer 25 36.100* 36.600* 0.425 I 32.5%
perature forecasts have been revised down with anomalies of -3°C Winter 25 45.350* 45.850* 0.625 I 21.8%
expected for next week.
*Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
The prompt upside helped push up the curve as the front
HEREN® NBP DAY-AHEAD INDEX
month continued to rise higher, after reaching two-year highs last
Friday. 12 January
January Previous Cumul.
January’s current total scheduled and delivered LNG cargoes
tally at only three, significantly below 24 from the previous year’s Price, p/th 66.259 61.738 59.200
equivalent as Asian premium prices continue to attract cargoes No. of trades 394 286 2441
away from Europe. Volume, m th 35.980 28.375 217.770
One market source said that the uncertainty of the polar vortex
impact could lead to further bullish weather signals for the gas HEREN® NBP WITHIN-DAY INDEX
markets in the northern hemisphere, adding further momentum to 11 January
climbing Asian LNG prices. The source said that the British gas mar- January Previous Cumul.
ket originally hedged their positions on the assumption of healthy Price, p/th 65.361 62.196 59.164
import flows during March and April. Eugene Poon No. of trades 160 128 975
Volume, m th 14.785 10.750 89.295
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contracts
BOM 61.325* 61.825* 7.000 -5.425 1.300 I
February '21 60.300* 60.375* 5.838 -6.800 -0.350 S
March '21 55.025* 55.125* 3.325 -4.575 -0.625 S
April '21 49.550* 49.725* 2.575 -1.325 0.450 I
Outlook
Q2 '21 45.750* 46.100* 1.163 -0.300 -0.125 I
Temperatures to average 1°C below normal in week 2 Q3 '21 44.900* 45.250* 1.113 1.850 0.375 I
IUK exports may rise Q4 '21 49.475* 49.850* 1.088 -1.525 -0.050 I
LNG sendout to remain muted Q1 '22 50.675* 51.050* 1.088 -3.575 0.050 I
Q2 '22 40.725* 41.000* 0.038 0.950 0.000 I
Prompt prices surged at Belgian natural gas markets on Monday, Q3 '22 40.275* 40.550* 0.038 1.800 0.000 I
amid expectations of persistent cold weather from mid-week. Gas Year 21 45.300* 45.625* 0.563 -0.575 0.000 I
Meteo Belgique forecast temperatures would rise on Tuesday, Year 2022 44.475* 44.750* 0.375 0.175 0.025 I
reaching highs of 8°C, before falling back. MetDesk predicted tem- Summer 21 45.325* 45.675* 1.138 0.775 0.125 S
peratures would average 1°C below normal for week 2 and 1-3°C Winter 21 50.075* 50.450* 1.088 -2.550 0.000 S
Summer 22 40.500* 40.775* 0.038 1.375 0.000 S
colder than average in week 3.
*Indicative bid/offers
Demand remained elevated on Monday, with offtake at a rate
❯❯ Trades
of 97.4mcm/day between 06:00-15:00 Brussels time according to
data from grid operator Fluxys. Consumption reached 94.7mcm on HEREN ZEEBRUGGE DAY-AHEAD INDEX
®
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Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at [email protected].
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Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at [email protected].
ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at [email protected].
ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at [email protected].
The Spanish natural gas Day-ahead dropped on Monday as the national gas
grid was very long throughout the day, which forced the network operator
Enagas GTS to launch a balancing selling action.
Wind power was expected to drop to 6.1GW on Tuesday and stay roughly
the same for the rest of the week, ICIS forecast showed. This compares to an
estimated 9.6GW on Monday, power grid operator RTE showed.
Temperatures were predicted to rise closer to norm in the next two weeks
and wind power to increase to around 10GW/day next week, meteorologist
MetDesk showed. This could cap demand for heating appliances and send
bearish signals to the prompt.
Spain was scheduled to receive eight laden LNG cargoes by the end of
the month, and one ballast, but which was not expected to pick up a reload.
A partial LNG reload scheduled at the Cartagena terminal for 16 January
has been cancelled, according to the latest schedule from Enagas. The can-
celled reload follows Spain’s first full-sized reload since 2018 at the Huelva ter-
minal earlier this month. A second full-sized reload, from the Sagunto terminal
on 22 January, remains on the schedule but could also be cancelled if Enagas
continues to deem the system heavily undersupplied. Diane Pallardy
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rises to €5/MWh
February '21 23.000 23.075 2.450 B 79.8%
March '21 21.225 21.575 1.675 B 72.2%
April '21 19.225* 19.625* 0.675 B < 20 Days
Q2 '21 18.700 19.000 0.675 B 43.7% Outlook
Q3 '21 18.000* 18.200* 0.425 I 37.8% Three LNG cargoes expected to deliver by 20
Q4 '21 19.425* 19.675* 0.500 I 34.8% January
Q1 '22 19.625* 19.775* 0.475 I < 20 Days Temperature to remain below seasonal norms
Gas Year 21 17.975* 18.225* 0.250 I 26.6% until week 3
Year 2022 17.425 17.650 0.213 B 23.4% S torage withdrawals likely to stay supported
Year 2023 16.450* 16.950* 0.263 I < 20 Days
Prompt contracts on Italy’s natural gas market
Summer 21 18.350 18.600 0.550 B 40.5%
posted staggering gains on Monday, cementing
Winter 21 19.525 19.725 0.488 B 32.0%
an upward trajectory seen already on Friday’s ses-
Summer 22 16.425 16.700 0.013 B 22.8%
sion.
*Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
The bullish trend led to a substantial widen-
Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals, I – Interpolation/extrapolation. The key ing of the spread of the PSV Day-ahead to its TTF
codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. counterpart, which was assessed at €5.925/MWh
on Monday’s closing, up by over €3/MWh com-
HEREN® PSV DAY-AHEAD INDEX pared with Friday’s price differential.
January This indicates imports from the northwest Eu-
12 January Previous Cumul. rope via the Transitgas pipe could be increasingly
Price, €/MWh 25.957 21.388 21.078 bolstered in the short-term.
No. of trades 201 203 917 Storage withdrawals surged day-on-day, mov-
Volume, MWh 291,000 230,640 1,291,560 ing from 9.9bcm to 120bcm amid a strong back-
wardation of the Day-ahead to the front-month
ITALIAN SPARK SPREADS FOR 49.13% FUEL EFFICIENCY February ‘21 product.
11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh As seen by the latest data released by Met-
Period PSV Spark spread Spark diff Desk, below-seasonal temperatures are expected
February '21 23.04 23.23 -1.64 to persist until week 3, bolstering gas-fired power
March '21 21.40 19.14 -0.04 generation, although wet and snow spells in week
April '21 19.43 13.96 -0.03 3 are equally predicted to improve hydro produc-
Q2 '21 18.85 16.88 -0.38
tion, which may therefore compete with gas
generation.
Q3 '21 18.10 23.43 0.06
Wind output is instead expected to remain in
Q4 '21 19.55 22.28 0.33
line with seasonal average. Scarcity of LNG delivery
Q1 '22 19.70 20.50 -0.67
will also likely exacerbate bullishness on the short-
Summer 21 18.48 20.16 -0.16 term. Federica Di Sario
Year 2022 17.54 21.13 -0.11
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Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals, I – Interpolation/extrapolation. The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.
Turkish gas prices have been ticking lower since the beginning of the year, reflecting
softening demand.
The daily price published on Monday stood at TL1285.85/kscm on the energy exchange
EPIAS, TL37.03/kscm lower since the first day of January.
System withdrawals have been falling, hovering around 176mcm/day on Sunday, some
25mcm/day lower than the monthly peak of 201mcm/day reached on 6 January, according
to EPIAS transparency data.
Meanwhile, LNG supplies remain reduced with only three cargoes scheduled to arrive
between 13-21 January, according to LNG Edge.
Two of the cargoes will be delivered on a contractual basis to the incumbent BOTAS
from Algeria and Nigeria, while a third will arrive from the US’ Cove Point on 21 January,
according to the same source.
Pipeline imports from Iran remain reduced to a third following technical issues at a
compressor station reported in the final days of December. BOTAS was expected to carry
out repair works and ramp up volumes within 10 days after the incident. Aura Sabadus
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Month-ahead price assessment snapshot: 11 January Month-ahead price assessment (past 30 days)
€/MWh €/MWh NBP Zeebrugge
TTF NCG
30 27
25 25
23
20
21
15
19
10
17
5 15
0 13
NBP Zee- ZTP TTF PEG NCG GAS- VTP Czech PVB PSV 24 Nov 02 Dec 10 Dec 18 Dec 30 Dec 11 Jan
brugge POOL 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: ICIS Source: ICIS
Front season price assessment (past 30 days) TTF quarter+2 vs gas oil 0.1%
€/MWh €/MWh Barges FOB ARA, $/tonne
NBP Zeebrugge
18 20.0 700
TTF NCG TTF
Gas oil 0.1%
17 17.5 600
16 15.0 500
15 12.5 400
14 10.0 300
13 7.5 200
12 5.0 100
24 Nov 02 Dec 10 Dec 18 Dec 30 Dec 11 Jan Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: ICIS Source: ICIS
16
12
0
Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2019 2020 2021
Source: ICIS
50 2.5
80
40 2.0
60
30 1.5
40
20 1.0
20 10 0.5
0 0 0.0
10 Dec 16 Dec 22 Dec 28 Dec 03 Jan 09 Jan 17 Nov 25 Nov 03 Dec 11 Dec 22 Dec 08 Jan
2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: National Grid Source: National Grid and ICIS
0 10 0
-10 0 -2
08 Dec 14 Dec 24 Dec 30 Dec 04 Jan 10 Jan 25 Nov 03 Dec 11 Dec 29 Dec 08 Jan
2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: Interconnector UK Source: Interconnector UK and ICIS
Data sourced from ICIS, National Grid, ICE Endex and Interconnector UK
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Ukraine gas TSO reduces Polish book more capacity now because they are
comfortable keeping the gas in Ukrainian
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Italian gas
Rising LNG storage and regasification capac- day, of which 95% has been already secured is expected to rise by 1bcm/year, although the
ity, alongside increasing pipeline supply, are through long-term contracts for 25 years. timeline remains unclear.
likely to be the key drivers of Italian natural gas Capacity holders and Azerbaijan’s Shah Previously, Italian regulator ARERA intro-
PSV prices in 2021. Deniz field owner agreed on a 15-month duced new regulations allowing Q-Flex vessels,
PSV near-curve premiums over the Dutch ramp-up period for contracted flows, starting which have capacity for up to 216,000cbm
TTF hub declined in the second half of 2020 with 40% of the pipeline’s capability.. compared to standard 130,00-170,000cbm
due to low demand following mild winter In July 2021 a market test for the expansion cargoes, to dock at the Adriatic terminal.
months. of TAP capacity will take place. The regulator also stated that the OLT Tos-
This reduced imports from northwest Eu- This could result in a doubling of the link’s cana terminal provide third-party access.
rope via the Transitgas pipeline, which normally capacity to 20 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year. This underlies the growing role of LNG in
represents a marginal source of supply for Italy. Following additional supply and pressure to the Italian supply mix for 2021.
Going forward, the 2022 closure of the the PSV, market participants polled by ICIS said
Netherlands’ giant Groningen field will likely Italy could start exporting via Transitgas by the SUMMER INJECTIONS & STORAGE
tighten the PSV premium over the TTF as pro- fourth quarter of 2021, depending on domes- Seasonal auctions to book storage capacity are
duction ends.. tic seasonal demand and storage site levels. set to take place by the end of the first quarter
Azeri gas imports entering Italy at the on the pan-European PRISMA platform.
Melendugno entry point via the Trans Adriatic INCREASED LNG CAPACITY The Italian-regulated storage regime is
Pipeline (TAP), which crosses Greece and Alba- The owner of the onshore LNG Panigaglia quite rigid as it sets withdrawal quotas for
nia, began flowing on 31 December, easing the terminal, Snam Rete Gas, announced in July shippers to meet during the winter season and
Italian supply picture compared with the north 2020 that the site’s storage capacity will double injection quotas in summer.
Europe, where scarce LNG arrivals are set to by the end of 2021. This involves bringing a Currently Italian storage sites are seven per-
last until the end of first quarter. 50,000cbm tank back online after being taken centage points emptier than the same time last
From 31 December 2020, TAP imports out of service five years ago. year, suggesting high injection demand for the
have averaged around 11 million cubic metres At the same time, the Adriatic LNG termi- summer months could support the PSV premium
(mcm)/day. TAP has a total capacity of 28mcm/ nal announced that its regasification capacity to the TTF for that period. Marta Del Buono
Topics include:
does this pose winners in
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• Oil market turbulence in 2020 • Global scope for demand
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• Analysis
flows and the
happen? outlook for US
• Beyond coronavirus of Asian LNG LNG production
and European
• Global LNG trade flows and the outlook for US LNG production
• The path to net zero: Modelling the EU power system to 2050 View agenda
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port of Hariga ended allowing supplies through again. the recent ramping up of mobility restrictions
Chinese demand was beginning to wane after several months set to curtail demand further. Policy makers in
of strong showing. The world’s biggest importer was believed the United Kingdom are mulling even stricter
to be relying heavily on accrued stocks as the price of crude measures to combat the spread of the new,
Demand NA
surges on vaccine hopes. Several Middle Eastern producers more infectious coronavirus variant. World-
have raised the official selling prices for their grades largely
also due to the vaccine.
wide coronavirus cases are nearing 90 million,
while deaths are ticking closer to the grim 2
The dollar was up over the past week, before falling in the million milestone.
new session. Hopes for increases to the stimulus package
US Dollar passed recently by Congress spurred some gains. Joe Biden’s NA There were also mounting concerns that
incoming administration have made overtures to upping a re-emergence of cases in China could dent
payments to individual US households. consumption. Mainland China saw the big-
Positivity built due to the vaccine rollouts globally. The gest daily increase in infections in more than
unfolding events in the US continued to cause concern over five months. Chinese crude imports provided
Sentiment stability and the country’s economy. However, some concerns Bullish a crucial lifeline for the oil market in 2020,
over supply were also helping to provide hope for higher when many other nations were sidelined by
prices.
dwindling end-user demand. Richard Price
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PSV moves above TTF PSV Day-ahead index moves above TTF on tighter supply
€/MWh million cubuc meters (mcm)
as Italian LNG supply 25
PSV Day-ahead index '21 LNG sendout mcm '20
50
TTF Day-ahead index '21 LNG sendout mcm '21
declines
20 40
❯❯ Continued from page 1
PIPELINE FLOWS 15 30
Italian imports via the Transitgas pipeline have
started to rise following limited deliveries in late
10 20
2020 as PSV contracts moved below the TTF.
On 6 January the PSV Day-ahead closed
5 10
€2.113/MWh above the TTF, after closing at a
discount the previous session.
0 0
The day after the volume delivered via Tran- 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
sitgas, a marginal source of supply into Italy via Source: ICIS
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DECEMBER LIQUIDITY
Relative liquidity over December for Finland,
Latvia-Estonia and Lithuania was in line with
the three country’s gas markets as a whole over
2020. The markets all trade on the GET Baltic
exchange
Lithuania remained the region’s most-liquid
market in December 2020 with 828GWh of
daily products bought and sold over the month.
This total was roughly flat with November’s
traded volume.
Liquidity on Finnish and Latvian-Estonian
daily markets increased month-on-month in
December, with 662GWh traded in Finland and
397GWh in Latvia-Estonia.
This represents a 15% increase on Novem-
ber’s traded volumes in Finland while Latvia-
Estonia’s December total almost doubled.
Prices on the Finnish market rose above
Lithuanian contracts at the start of December
and remained at a premium for all but three
days late on in the month.
Ample Lithuanian LNG supply and reduced
capacity on the Estonia-to-Finland Balticco-
nnector over the month could have contributed
to the Finland-Lithuanian price flip in Decem-
ber.
Lithuanian LNG sendout averaged 6 million
cubic metres (mcm)/day in December, up from
4.9mcm/day in November.
LNG Edge showed 343,000cbm was deliv-
ered at the Klaipeda LNG terminal in December,
over double November’s volume.
Balticconnector transmission capac-
ity is down about 40% through December
2020-January 2021 following construction
delays of the Puiatu compressor station, ac-
cording to Finnish TSO Gasgrid.
Cheaper Lithuanian prices in December also
saw the Lithuanian premium over Latvian-Esto-
nian prices narrow in December. Kaja Sillett
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Settle Change High Low Total Open Settle Change High Low Total Open
Period p/th p/th p/th p/th Lots m th interest Period p/th p/th p/th p/th Lots m th interest
Feb-21 66.300 5.610 68.04 63.28 15,405 431.34 65,360 Q2 21 46.223 1.622 46.46 45.60 395 35.95
Mar-21 59.320 4.060 60.33 56.65 7,635 236.69 66,560 Q3 21 43.391 1.240 43.46 42.52 230 21.16
Apr-21 50.820 2.430 51.47 49.64 4,225 126.75 30,625 Q4 21 50.951 1.267
May-21 44.720 1.220 45.05 44.31 2,655 82.31 24,855 Q1 22 54.477 1.470
Jun-21 43.180 1.230 43.45 43.13 1,035 31.05 17,900 Q2 22 41.326 0.750
Jul-21 42.580 1.230 635 19.68 15,605 Q3 22 37.376 0.084
Aug-21 43.360 1.190 635 19.68 15,715 Q4 22 45.501 0.147
Sep-21 44.260 1.300 635 19.05 15,490 Q1 23 48.666 0.287
Oct-21 47.170 1.090 410 12.71 15,480 Q2 23 37.261 0.073
Nov-21 51.510 1.280 410 12.30 15,580 Q3 23 35.601 -0.021
Dec-21 54.190 1.430 410 12.71 15,530 Q4 23 45.398 0.323
Jan-22 56.180 1.450 410 12.71 15,235 Quarterly Total 625 57.11
Feb-22 56.010 1.470 410 11.48 15,235 SU'21 44.799 1.429 45.20 44.06 440 80.52
Mar-22 51.390 1.490 410 12.71 15,235 WI'21 52.695 1.368 52.85 52.00 410 74.62
Apr-22 45.120 1.100 160 4.80 7,050 SU'22 39.340 0.415 39.70 39.20 160 29.28
May-22 40.950 0.750 160 4.96 7,050 WI'22 47.066 0.216 47.31 46.95 115 20.93
Jun-22 37.920 0.400 160 4.80 7,050 SU'23 36.427 0.027 36.55 36.45 65 11.89
Monthly Total 35,800 1,055.73 365,555 WI'23 45.102 0.483
SU'24 36.764 0.700
February Settlement 66.3 WI'24 45.709 0.700
For further information, contact Jason
February Contract index 58.270 Pegley on +44 (0)207 065 7743, SU'25 36.957 0.700
ICE Futures Europe, Milton Gate, 60 Yearly Total 1,190 217.24
February Weighted Average 65.49
Chiswell Street, London EC1Y 4SA.
Final January Contract Index 46.810 www.theice.com
ICE ENDEX OCM SMP/SAP REPORT GAS DAY 8 JANUARY 2021 - 10 JANUARY 2021 p/th
Gas Day SAP SMP buy SMP sell SAP 7 day SAP 30 day
8 62.77 63.90 61.64 57.02 49.59
9 62.69 63.82 61.57 57.83 50.33
10 61.20 62.32 59.50 58.58 51.01
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ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at [email protected].
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European Spot
Gas Markets
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