An Assignment on-

OPTIMUM THEORY OF POPULATION

Course NO-204
Course Name: Population Geography

Submitted to-
Md. Iqbal Sarwar
Assistant Professor
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies
University of Chittagong

Submitted by-
Mohammad Mohaiminul Islam
ID NO. 14603063
B.Sc. (Hon’s) 2nd Year
Session: 2013-14

Date of Submission: November 21, 2015

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Introduction
Human has a tendency to increase population number much rapidly in proportion to
his mean income and capability of looking after the children. For this reason,
population needs to be checked at certain points. Though many social scientists and
economists do not believe that Malthus disaster is helpful or appropriate to control
population, but they believe that human has the knowledge and ability to reach
optimum population in a convenient way, and thus optimum theory of population has
come to light. (Rouf, Bilah and Rahman, 2007)

History of Optimum population Theory

The optimum theory of population was propounded by Edwin Cannan in his book
Wealth published in 1924 and popularized by Robbins, Dalton and Carr-Saunders.
Unlike the Malthusian theory, the optimum theory does not establish relationship
between population growth and food supply. Rather, it is concerned with the
relation between the size of population and production of wealth. The Malthusian
theory is a general theory which studies the population problem of a country in
keeping with its economic conditions. Thus the optimum theory is more realistic
than the Malthusian theory of population. (Gupta, 2010)

It is also called modern theory of population. In recent years, Prof. Robbins, Dalton
and Carr- Saunders have refined and polished the theory and put it in a more
presentable form. This theory is an improvement over the Malthusian Theory.

Statement of the Theory

The founders of the theory state it as-

“Given the natural resources, stock of capital and the state of technical knowledge,
there will be a definite size of population with the per capita income. The
population which has the highest per capita income is known as optimum population”.
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 Optimum Population: The economists like Carr Saunders considered

„optimum population‟ as that which produces maximum welfare. On the other
hand, Prof. Cannan defined this theory in terms of „return to labour‟. He
remarked, “Knowledge and circumstances remaining the same, there is what
may be called maximum return when the amount of labour is such that both
an increase and decrease in it would diminish proportionate return.”
Similarly, Bounding has rightly observed, “Optimum population is that at
which standard of living is maximum.
 Under population: If the actual population in a country is less than the
optimum or ideal population, there will not be enough people to exploit all the
resources of the country fully. Thus, the population and the per capita
income will be lower. In other words, if the per capita income is low due to
too few people, the population is then under population.

 Over Population: If the actual population is above the level of optimum

population, there will be too many people to work efficiently and produce the
maximum goods and the highest per capita income. As a result, the per
capita income becomes poorer than before. This is the stage of over
population. In other words, if the per capita income is low due to too many
people, the population under these circumstances would be over population.

Assumptions of the Theory

The optimum theory is based on two important assumptions:

1. The proportion of working population to total population remains constant as

the population of the country increases.
2. As the population of a country increases, the natural resources, the capital
stock and state of technology remain unchanged
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Diagrammatic Representation of the Theory

In the diagram I volume of population is shown along OX axis and income per head
along OY-axis. OS is the income per head which gives only subsistence wage rate to
the population. This level of wages puts the minimum limit to the income per head.

The subsistence income per head can prevail with two levels of population.

1. When population is too small to exploit the country‟s resources with maximum
efficiency. This is the level of OA population.

2. When population is too large and the efficiency falls to give only a subsistence
income to the labor force. This is the level of OC population.

OB shows optimum population which uses the available resources to give itself the
maximum income per head. For a population less than OB, income per head
increases with the increase in population. For a population higher than OB, income
per head can increase with the decrease in population through preventive checks.

The dotted curve in the diagram shows the level of income per head with an
improvement in technology or expansion of foreign trade. This will help to raise the
income curve and generate population growth until wages are once again equal to
subsistence level.

Figure: Diagrammatic Representation of Optimum Population Theory

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Dalton’s Formula

Prof. Dalton expresses the theory in the form of a formula which is given below:

If M is zero, population is optimum, when M is positive, it is over population, when

M is negative, and it is under population. Therefore, optimum population is not
fixed and a rigid one. It is rather variable and relative to resources and
technology. Optimum population is not just an economic concept but qualitative in
nature. Prof. Cannan has correctly remarked, “It is being perpetually altered by
the progress of knowledge and other changes affecting the economic system. It is,
thus, a dynamic concept. It may be higher or lower as different methods of
production are used.” (Economic Discussion, 2014)

Benefits of the Theory

The theory is a landmark in the science of demography. Its merits are under noted:

1. Comprehensive Approach:

It explains the problems of population in a comprehensive way from the production

side. It also explains the relationship between productive efficiency and
production.

2. Qualitative Nature of the Theory:

Prof. Bye said, “Optimum population is difficult to find because size of population
must lead to the fullest development of social and economic life.”

3. Pragmatic Approach:

This theory is also pragmatic, i.e. it is concerned with practical results.

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4. More Detailed Analysis:

The optimum theory of population provides more detailed analysis as it considers

over and under- population and brings out the evils of both.

Criticism of the Theory

The optimum theory of population is not free from defects. The critics have
criticized the theory on the basis of the following grounds.

1. Difficult to Determine Optimum Population:

It is extremely difficult to know the optimum population of a country at any time.

Many factors like technical knowledge, stock of capital, per capita income and
natural resources etc. have to be taken into account for this purpose.

2. A Static Theory:

The optimum theory is criticized as a static short period theory. It ignores

changes in natural and human resources which affect per capita income. This
theory is also silent about the important questions of the determinants of
population growth.

3. Neglects Biological and Sociological Factors:

Some critics also argue that this theory has not taken into account the biological
and sociological factors which govern the size and growth of population. Strictly
speaking, this theory is not a theory of population. It simply explains the state of
population with reference to per capita income.

4. Not a Realistic Theory:

It is pointed out that two assumptions, on which the theory has been based, are
not realistic. So, the practical value of this theory is reduced. In fact, natural
resources, technical knowledge and production methods are generally changeable.
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5. Only Economic Factors Considered:

The critics point out that the theory takes into account purely economic factors
which determine the optimum size of the population of a country. This is one side
of the picture. It should also be considered the social, political and other non-
economic factors.

6. Not Practicable:

The optimum theory is not practicable as it is not fixed. Thus, it is unable to guide
to the formation of any policy. Prof. Robbins says that this theory is the most
sterile idea of economics.

7. Distributional Aspect Neglected:

The theory neglects the distributional aspect of the problem. This theory
considers simple population to income per head. This increase of population and
national income cannot be useful to a country if the increased national income is
not properly and equitably distributed among the various sections of the society.
Therefore, realistic theory must account for income distribution as a factor in
determining the optimum population.

In a brief-

 Growth Rate, Birth Rate and Death rate are not mentioned in the theory.
 It doesn’t describe the income distribution of people.
 It doesn’t describe the exact population figure.
 This theory is impractical and unscientific.

Concept of Optimum Population in Details

Optimum population refers to the size of a population that produces the best
results according to chosen end targets. One text from 1926 presented a single
end target as being "...the largest per capital income of consumers' goods possible
under the given conditions". Other potential end targets in favour of lower levels
of population are cited, including: long term sustainability, efficient operation of
democracy, the preservation of personal freedom and the preservation of
biodiversity while potential end targets in favour of higher levels of population are
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cited, including the abilities: to preserve and foster cultural diversity, to stimulate
intellectual, artistic, and technological creativity and to facilitate social
infrastructure

Overview: Regarding the human population, end-targets for an optimum population

include ecological sustainability, economic output and philosophical or ethical ends-
in-themselves. Some commentators disagree with the concept of "optimum
population", believing that the human population will always, in the long-term, be
able to adapt to the requirements of a larger population. Any conception of an
optimum population level must lie between a minimum viable population of the human
species and the maximum level of population that can be sustained by the carrying
capacity of the planet Earth.

Estimation: Various end-targets are often balanced together in estimating the

optimum human population, and different emphasis on different end-targets cause
variability among estimates.

The optimal World Population has been estimated by a team co-authored by Paul R.
Ehrilch. End-targets in this estimation included:

 Decent wealth and resources to everyone

 Basic human rights to everyone
 Preservation of Cultural Diversity. Allowance of intellectual, artistic, and
technological creativity
 Preservation of biodiversity.

Based on this, the estimation of optimum population was to be roughly around 1.5
billion to 2 billion people. (Wikipedia, 2015)

Population Growth in Bangladesh

Bangladesh had high rates of population growth in the 1960s and 1970s. Since then
however it has seen a marked reduction in its total fertility rate. Over a period of
three decades it dropped from almost 7 to 2.4 in 2005-2010. (Wikipedia, 2015)

A brief image of population growth in Bangladesh has given in the following page-
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Census Year Population in million Density of Average Annual

population per sq. Growth of
km Population
1901, March 28.9 196 -
1911, March 31.6 214 0.94
1921, March 33.3 225 o.60
1931, February 35.6 241 0.74
1941, March 41.9 285 1.70
1951, March 41.2 284 0.50
1961, February 55.2 345 2.26
1974, March 76.3 484 2.48
1981, March 89.9 590 2.35
1991, March 111.5 720 2.17
1998, September 128.5 850 1.7
2011, March 142.3 1015 1.6
Figure: Population Growth in Bangladesh. (Source: UNDP, 2010)

Conclusion

Modern economists have rejected the Malthusian theory of maximum population,

which if exceeded will spell misery in the country. Instead of the maximum
population the modern economists have substituted the idea of optimum population.

Despite of so much criticism leveled against optimum theory, it is surely said that
it is an improvement over Malthusian Theory. The optimum theory is an important
landmark in the science of demography. It is valuable because it enables us to
overcome the bogey of Malthusianism and give us a test of progress (in per capita
income). But this theory is not useful in social life due to its static nature. Thus, it
is not a guiding principle to any economic policy. It requires being re-casted in a
dynamic setting for making it more successful.
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References

1. Rouf, Q. A., Bilah, M. and Rahman, M. A. (2007) Ppopulation Geography, 3rd

ed., P-211.
2. Gupta, R. (2010) Elementary Geography, S. Chand Publication, India.
3. Economic Discussion (2014) The Optimum Theory of Population (With
Diagram) [Online] Available from: http:// www.economicsdiscussion.net/
population/ the-optimum-theory-of-population-with-diagram/4473
[Accessed on 19th November, 2015]
4. Your Article Library (2015) The Optimum Theory of Population / Economics
[Online] Available from: http://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/population/the-
optimum-theory-of-population-economics/10891 [Accessed on 19th
November, 2015]
5. United Nation Development Programme (2015) UNDP in Bangladesh [Online]
Available from: http://www.undp.org/bangladesh [Accessed on 19th
November, 2015]
6. Wikipedia (2015) Optimum Population [Online] Available from:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimum_population [Accessed on 19th
November, 2015]
7. Wikipedia (2015) Demographics of Bangladesh [Online] Available from:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Bangladesh [Accessed on
19th November, 2015]