BCG-COVID-19-BCG Perspectives Version 6.1 19may2020

COVID-19
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 19 May 2020 Version 6.1.
BCG Perspectives
Facts, scenarios, and actions for leaders
Publication #6 with a focus on:
Restructuring costs, and managing cash and liquidity
Version: 19 May 2020

COVID-19
BCG Perspectives
Objectives of this document
COVID-19 is a global Leaders need to drive an integrated
societal crisis response to navigate the crisis
We at BCG believe that the COVID-19 outbreak is It is the duty of health, political, societal, and business
first and foremost a societal crisis, threatening leaders to navigate through this crisis. A complex
lives and the wellbeing of our global community. interplay of epidemic progression, medical response,
Society now, more than ever, needs to collaborate government action, sector impact, and company
to protect people's lives and health, manage mid- action is playing out. This document intends to help
term implications, and search for lasting solutions. leaders find answers and shape opinions to navigate
the crisis in their own environments. It encourages
thinking across the multiple time horizons over which
we see the crisis manifesting itself.
Source: BCG 1
NAVIGATING BUSINESSES
THROUGH THE CRISIS
Flatten Fight Future
Establish crisis 1 Develop Scenario-Based

Planning Approach to
2 Create a Rapid Response
and Transformation
management manage uncertainty (RR&T) team
action areas
for business 3 Revamp Organization for 6 Restructure Cost, Focus of
the New Reality manage Cash & Liquidity this edition
leaders
Navigate 4 Drive Topline Security 7 Emerge Stronger; drive
and Customer Trust advantage in adversity
through
Flatten, Fight,
and Future 5 Stabilize and restart Supply 8 Accelerate Digital and
Chain, Manufacturing Technology transformation
9 Help Society during

COVID-19
Note: RR&T = Rapid Response and Transformation Team

Source: BCG 2
Executive Summary | COVID-19 BCG Perspectives
For the many businesses hit hard by the crisis, it is critical for companies to adapt cash and costs to current and future requirements
• COVID-19 crisis has resulted in negative economic and business impact (-3% global GDP1, up to -30% change in world trade, lower revenues, higher risk of default)
• With many countries entering the 'Fight' phase, business leaders must move from crisis response to performance transformation
• Transformations are by definition holistic and cover the entire company; managing cash and liquidity and driving cost take-out are imperative
– Cash and liquidity are top priorities for investors; management can gain control quickly by establishing a high-impact cash management office
– Cost take-out is critical to ensure company stability; however leaders must consider current and future requirements, especially on the people side
Across countries, efforts to flatten the curve and ramp-up testing continue; the impact on economy, sectors, and businesses persists
• Globally, 1.6 million patients have recovered from COVID-19 and the case-doubling rate has improved to 33 days
• As countries move into the 'Fight' phase, several have started to see a decline in the number of daily cases; ramp-up of testing continues
• The testing landscape is changing rapidly and molecular testing continues to be the “gold standard”; efforts focused on improving speed
• Vaccine and therapeutics development are moving at rapid pace; seven vaccine candidates in phases I/II; therapeutics availability by Q3 2020 (earliest)
• Full-year 2020 economic and employment impact from lockdown measures will be substantial across geographies
We believe during
this crisis leaders
1 Taking an integrated perspective on
health/medical progression,
governmental responses, societal
2 Thinking multi-
timescale in a Flatten-
Fight-Future logic
need to think along reactions, and economic implications
two dimensions: to understand business/sector impacts
1. Basis IMF forecast for 2020

Source: BCG 3
COVID-19 will be a journey with three distinct phases, requiring
an integrated perspective
Typically the initial phase after a pandemic Finding paths to collectively fight the virus, Disease controlled through vaccine/cure/
outbreak–goal is to urgently limit number restart the economy, and support society in herd immunity, and treatment within
of new cases, especially critical care balancing lives and livelihood sustainable medical capacities possible
Social distancing (lockdown) and partial business Increasing economic activity with recovering Reactivated economy with strong business
closures, lead to economic recession with large GDP, some business reopenings, and social rebound and job growth, social restrictions
employment impact distancing on sustainable level limited or completely suspended
1. Disease progression, health care system capacity, and response
2. Government policies and economic stimulus
3. Economic scenarios
4. Business engagement and response
5. Public engagement and response
All of the above five factors result in specific economic and social outcomes in each phase
Source: BCG 4
1 Guide for leaders
Need for performance transformation across companies
How to restructure cost, and manage cash and liquidity
Updated epidemic, economic, and business
2
scenarios and impact
Epidemic progression, virus monitoring, health care capacity
Economic impact
Business scenarios and impact
3 Appendix: Further readings

Learnings from successful business leaders
Further readings
5
COVID-19: Impact dashboard
As of 15 May 2020
Epidemic Progression Economic Impact Business Impact
Stock market performance9

4.5M 1.6M 308K GDP forecasts (Current outlook, likely to evolve further)
# of cases # of recoveries # of fatalities 2020 2021 20 Mar vs 21 Feb -31% -30% -34% -10%
IMF As of As of As of As of
forecast Jan'20 May'20 Jan'20 May'20 15 May vs 21 Feb -14% -22% -23% -6%
17 Apr 01 May 15 May
# of days of case US 2.0% -5.9% 1.7% 4.7% S&P500 FTSE100 DAX CHN SSE
doubling1
16 26 33
China 6.0% 1.2% 5.8% 9.2% Total Shareholder Returns9
# of reported recoveries
as % of total cases
25% 32% 36% Europe 1.3% -7.5% 1.4% 4.7% First column: 21 Feb to 20 Mar; Second column: 21 Feb to 15 May
# of countries with India 5.8% 1.9% 6.5% 7.4% Americas Europe Asia
1k+ cases
76 87 98
Japan 0.7% -5.2% 0.5% 3.0% Pharma -19% -1% -20% -10% -22% -3%
# of tests / case2 10 11 14 F&B10 -26% -16% -24% -18% -12% -7%
Estimated current employment impact7 Telecom -17% -13% -20% -21% -14% -13%
# of tests / million2 10k 16K 24K Total employment Employees % of employees
2019 (M) impacted8 (M) impacted
Software -30% -12% -32% -19% -28% -16%
Vaccine Treatment US ~159 ~36 ~23% Retailing -42% -22% -36% -25% -24% 2%
Trials in pre-clinical UK ~33 ~8 ~25% Capital goods -38% -27% -35% -26% -29% -16%
stage and beyond3 132 122
Auto -47% -34% -45% -33% -32% -23%
Germany ~45 ~10 ~23%
Trials in Phase 1 and
beyond4
7 50 France ~28 ~12 ~45% Real Estate -42% -39% -26% -40% -22% -15%
Energy -56% -37% -45% -32% -41% -30%
Current est. timeline 12-36 6-24 Italy ~23 ~7 ~28%
for approval & scale-up months5 months6 Banks -41% -40% -44% -48% -26% -21%
Spain ~20 ~4 ~21%
1. No. of doubling days based on 7 day CAGR 2. Median of values for top 15 countries by nominal GDP (except China) 3. On-going trials including pre-clinical, Phase 1 (first trial in humans), Phase 2, Phase 3, Phase 4 4. On-going trials including Phase 1(first trial in
humans), Phase 2, Phase 3, Phase 4 5. 12 month development "best case", then likely to require time to scale across population 6. Remdesivir is approved now, could be more widely available by Jul '20. For the next wave, estimated timeline is Oct '20 – April '22 (6-24
months). If first round of drugs being tested succeeds – then 6-9 months; if not – substantially longer 7. Available data as of May 15; figures are changing rapidly and often being reported with a lag from the current date 8. Includes increase in unemployment and employees 6
covered by government's wage support programs 9. Performance is tracked for two periods, first from 21 February 2020 (before international acceleration of outbreak) to 20 March 2020 (trough of the market) and from 21 February 2020 through 15 May 2020 10. Food &
Beverage Source: WHO, World Bank, JHU CSSE, Our World in Data, IMF, Bloomberg, BCG, Employment data - Eurostat, Trading Economics; Gov't Wage Support figures: Gov.Uk (UK), Reuters (Italy), News Break (Spain), travail-emploi.gouv.fr (France), Barrons (Germany)
COVID-19 resulting in substantial negative economic and business impact
As of 15 May 2020
Economic Supply chain Revenue Sector

downturn interruption decline distress
Up to More than
-3.0% -30% 50% 11 out of 24
global GDP development change in world of companies expect sectors with significant
forecasted for 2020; trade, interrupting shrinking topline due share of companies at
-7.5% Europe; -5.9% US supply chains to drop in demand high risk of default1
(IMF) (BCG Trade Finance Model) (BCG Henderson Survey (BCG Value Science Center
across 213 companies) analysis for S&P Global 1200)
1. Pharma, Telecom, Retailing, Materials, Transport, Media, Capital Goods, Auto, Real Estate, Energy, Hospitality with > 10% of companies with probability of default > 15% as of 15 May 2020
Source: Bloomberg; IMF; UN Comtrade, OECD, IHS, WEF, WTO; BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey; BCG Henderson Institute; S&P Capital IQ; BCG ValueScience® Center; BCG 7
Economic downturn | -3.0% global GDP development forecast for 2020;
-7.5% in Europe and -5.9% in US
As of 15 May 2020
GDP growth forecast vs. baseline for 2020 [%]

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
-7.5% 1.3% -9.1% 0.5%
Europe Italy
-5.9% 2.0% -8.0% 1.6%
US Spain
-5.2% 0.7% -7.2% 1.3%

Japan France
1.2% 6.0% -7.0% 1.1%

China Germany
1.9% 5.8% -6.5% 1.4%
India UK
-3.0% 3.3%
World
Forecast: IMF forecast from April 2020 Baseline : IMF forecast from January 2020 Forecast range (IMF & Banks1)
Note: As of reports dated 12 April 2020 to 12 May 2020, YoY forecasts 1. Range from forecasts (where available) of International Monetary Fond, JP Morgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America; Fitch Solutions;
Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC Source: Bloomberg; IMF; BCG Analysis 8
Supply chain interruption | Up to -30% change in world trade expected,
interrupting supply chains
As of 15 May 2020
Global trade impact Global supply chain

COVID-19 recession implications Automotive example (pre Covid-19 crisis) Illustrative
Metals imported from various
1
countries, rare metals mined in China
• ~$18 trillion world trade in 2019
(CAGR of ~4% from 2015-2019) Aluminum and steel produced
2 1
in China Palladium
• -10-30% in world trade expected for 2020 5,6
Components produced in Hubei Aluminum,
due to COVID-19 3
and other parts of China (Tier 2+) 1-6 Steel,
Graphite,
• -4% total imports in Q1 2020 Engines produced in Hubei and Magnesium
4 (China)
Q1 2020 vs. Q1 2019 in value other parts of China (Tier 1)
Iron um
11 tin
a
Cars assembled by OEMs in EU, Ore Pl 11
• -14% automotive imports in Q1 2020 5 1
Hubei and other parts of China
1
Q1 2020 vs. Q1 2019 in value Iron Ore,
Finished cars shipped from Copper
6 Copper (Australia)
EU and China
Source: UN Comtrade, OECD, IHS, WEF, WTO, IMF, BCG Trade Finance Model 2020, BCG Analysis 9
Revenue decline | Due to drop in demand, 50% or more of
companies across sectors expect shrinking topline
As of 20 April 2020 As of 15 April 2020
Consumer sentiment % of companies expecting negative revenue impact in FY20

German example
39% Expected
impact
Consumer Communic.2 Information Consumer Financial
refrain from large, Industrials Discretion. 1 Services Health Care Technology Staples Materials services
planned investments
-19% -23% -22% -25% -25%
0 to -10% -32% -31% -29%
46% -23% -21% -6% -20%

-9%
-37% -25% -13%
want to save money in -10 to -20% -26% -19% -5%
case we enter a recession
-31% -11%
-11%
-52% -15%
51% < - 20%
are careful and cut back

on their overall spending ∑ -94% -74% -74% -68% -67% -55% -50% -47%
1 Discretionary 2. Communication
Left: Top-2 values (i.e. share of respondents who (strongly) agree to these statements); Question text: “To what extent do the following statements describe the impact the coronavirus crisis has on your income and
spending behavior (if any)? Please select one answer for each statement.”; Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, April 17–20, 2020 (N= 1,584, unweighted, representative within ±3% of German census)
Right: All sectors with >9 responses are listed; Sector classification follows Global Industry Classification Standard; Source: BCG Henderson Institute survey, April 15, 2020 (N= 313 companies) 10
Sector distress | 11 sectors with more than 10% of companies at high
risk of default
As of 15 May 2020
Share of companies with Median YTD2 Total Based on top S&P
Sectors probability of default > 15% shareholder return Global 1200 companies
Pharma 16% 0%
Healthier
sectors1
Food/staples Retail 0% -2%

Household Products 0% -5%
Health Equipment 0% -6%
Semiconductors 0% Key take-away -13% Key take-away
Food & Beverage 0% -12%
Telecom 15% 11 sectors have > 10% -9% Negative median
Software 0% -6%
share of companies year-to-date2
Pressured
Tech Hardware 0% -15%

with probability of total shareholder
sectors1
Retailing 47% -20%

Materials 17% default > 15% -23% return in all sectors
Prof. Services 0% Pre-crisis, no sector -14%
Utilities 5% -14%
had > 10% of companies
Transport 36% -22%
Media 21%
with probability -24%
Capital Goods 12% of default > 15% -24%
Financials 0% -24%
Auto 33% -32%
Vulnerable
sectors1
Durable Goods 5% -29%

Insurance 0% -32%
Real Estate 17% -28%
Energy 29% -41%
Hospitality 43% -36%
Banks 6% -37%
Note: Sectors are based on GICS definitions 1. Sector ranking and division into “healthy”, “pressured”, “vulnerable” based on global TSR between 21 Feb 2020 to 15 May 2020 2. comparing 15 May
2020 vs 1 Jan 2020; Source: S&P Capital IQ; BCG ValueScience® Center; BCG 11
All sectors, even the healthier ones, have players in need of
performance transformation
As of 15 May 2020
YTD shareholder return in % per sector

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Pharma
Media
Food & Beverage
Food/staples Retail
Transport
Durable Goods
Household Products
Health Equipment
Materials
Telecom
Tech Hardware
Hospitality
Retail
Software
Financials
Real Estate
Auto
Banks
Semiconductors
Insurance
Utilities
Energy
Capital Goods
Prof. Services
Healthier sectors1 Pressured sectors1 Vulnerable sectors1
Top 10% Bottom 10% Median Performance spread between bottom and top 10%
Note: Sectors are based on GICS definitions; Companies sampled from S&P Global 1200 1. Sector ranking and division into “healthy”, “pressured”, “vulnerable” based on global TSR between 21 Feb 2020
to 15 May 2020, Source: S&P Capital IQ; BCG ValueScience® Center 12
Companies have started to initiate performance response
As of 15 May 2020
How big tech plans to profit
from the pandemic
13
Five elements
of a holistic performance transformation
1 2 3 4 5
Manage cash Drive cost Ensure topline Stabilize supply chain, Organize people
and liquidity take-out security manufacturing for the new reality
Monitor cash flow and key Push cost take-out in Use high frequency indicators Manage supply chain Keep employees safe;
financials (including FC) non-critical areas; drive to sense changing demand / actively; build resilience to enable new ways of working
flexibility in personnel costs supply sentiment limit risk of interruption
Implement balance sheet Build new capabilities and
measures Manage spend and Activate topline levers, e.g. Prepare for force restructure organization
investments actively channel shift, marketing majeure claims
Ensure funding (inclulding spend, customer engagement Build SWAT teams to
government aid) address critical areas
For deep-dive, refer Edition 5

Steered through a central team
Steer crisis response centrally

Set-up Rapid Response Monitor impact along KPIs
& Transformation Team
Initiate and track counteraction
Source: BCG 14
Companies need to move from crisis response to driving transformation
as they move into fight phase
Deep-dive on following pages
From crisis response... ...to driving the transformation …
Manage cash Build liquidity transparency and manage Free internal funds to ensure funding
& liquidity net working capital of strategic moves
Drive cost Stop non-essential spend/investments, Push cost-out; adjust cost structure permanently
take-out drive flexibility in personnel costs Make prudent long-term policy decisions
Ensure topline Protect existing business and align value Make structural moves to win in new reality;
security proposition to needs Determine how to reactivate customers
Stabilize supply chain, Manage supply chain actively, define Build resilient supply chain and
manufacturing 'hibernation' plan for underutilized OPS manufacturing to limit the risk of interruption
Organize people for Continue to protect people, build new capabilities

Protect people and enable remote work
the new reality and restructure org. to fit go-forward needs
Set-up Rapid Response Central crisis response teams provide Accountable line management in the lead,
& Transformation Team top-down direction to business activist RR&T Team supports transformation
Source: BCG 15
As of 03 May 2020
68%
Investors believe it is
critically important for Over the next 12 months, it is important to intensely focus
on preserving liquidity, even if it is at the expense of 3% 29% 41% 27%
companies to ensure investing to achieve advantage1,2
liquidity and be
financially resilient; 73%
even if it is at the Companies should access all sources of debt financing
expense of investing to strengthen cash position and financial resilience, even
if it impacts the balance sheet and credit risk1,3
7% 21% 47% 26%
~68% 55%
want intense For companies with share price decline in line with the
market, significant equity issuance is a reasonable move 13% 32% 44% 11%
focus on liquidity to strengthen cash position and financial resilience
Strongly disagree Somewhat disagree Somewhat agree Strongly agree
1. Questions were posed with respect to financially healthy companies 2. Investing to achieve advantage in the business may include digital
and acquisitions, for example 3. Debt financing includes revolvers, bank term loans, asset-backed loans, private placements, for example. 16
Source: BCG's COVID-19 Investor Pulse Check, May 3, 2020; n = 150
Cash & Liquidity | Business leaders can gain control of liquidity
by establishing high-impact cash management
Introduce Generate Build liquidity Define rules for Secure

cash office transparency scenarios discretionary spent financing
Centralize cash Work at legal entity Set up a cash flow Define clear roles and Map the financing
governance level, with clear owners forecast process responsibilities for structure and
spend approval instruments
Set up dedicated Map suppliers and Identify minimum
Cash Team with clients ("cash impact") cash buffer, based on Create authorization Evaluate and
clear accountability history and peak levels gateways and spend implement cash-
Identify total cash limits pooling
Standardize available vs. trapped Cross-check direct vs.
process and format indirect cash flow Set up rigorous spend
across legal entities Compare terms to authorization
maximize reliability of processes
forecast
Evaluate limitation of
Analyze variances payment timing
actual vs. forecast
Source: BCG 17
As of 15 May 2020
Cash & Liquidity Stress on liquidity and

Major distress
across most
Decline in
business activity
Expected decline
in Q1 sales by
Example 1 cash flow due to the crisis of its >10k outlets to ~85%1 50%2
Initiatives implemented for

managing cash and liquidity
Global footwear and Introduced cash office to drive cash
and liquidity management Impact
apparel manufacturer
applied effective cash Reduced cash requirement from workforce cost by
and liquidity
reducing working hours for over 1,000 workers;
difference of pay to be financed by government aid
package
50K+
management to Workforce remained employed while
effectively preserving healthy balance
sustain operations Reduction in annual management compensation
sheet and stabilized cash flow
(eliminated short- and long-term bonuses)

during the crisis
€1Bn+
Loan from a consortium of banks for
Suspended discretionary spend of €1 billion share financial stability as a result of strict
buyback and dividend payments to investors cost cutting and liquidity management
1. In China, compared to the same period last year (Jan 25 – Feb 29); 2. In China, 2020 as compared to 2019 18
Source: Press search; BCG
As of 15 May 2020
Cash & Liquidity Stress on liquidity and

Global reduction
in travel due to
Domestic flights
reduced to ~5% of
~70% share price
decline by mid
Example 2 cash flow due to the crisis restrictions pre-crisis network March1
Initiatives implemented for

managing cash & liquidity
Global airline Impact
reduced cash
Suspended capex expense by shelving plans to
requirements to order 10+ aircrafts
12-15
manage liquidity for months
Reduced cash requirement from workforce cost by
operations standing down 25,000+ staff and reducing executive
Of operations possible before
salary by 30%2, bonuses reduced to zero
running out of cash
Cascaded plan to reduce cash burn

to ~$25 million a week2 ~$2 billion
Available cash balance3 with an
additional ~$1 billion undrawn
facility remaining available
Secured ~$1 billion funding against its aircrafts
1. As compared to share price on 1H results announcement in Feb'20; 2. Till end of June; 3. As of Mar'20 19
Note: All the values in $ are US dollars; Source: Press search; BCG
Cost take-out | Business leaders must drive cost reduction, while considering
current and future requirements and handling people agenda with empathy
Streamline personnel costs Reduce non-personnel costs Drive efficiency in operations
Identify and pursue valuable and Bring down budgets and retain Optimize number of operational
business-critical activities lower in-crisis spend units (e.g. manufacturing locations,
warehouses)
Determine and stop investing in non- Optimize consumption/behavior
essential tasks patterns (zero-based mindset) Reduce non-essential factor cost
(e.g. overtime balances, leave,
Make use of governmental Rigorously review and renegotiate contractors)
programs and special legislations all key procurement contracts
Strike insourcing vs. outsourcing
Establish appropriate workforce Tackle 'other' cost buckets not balance (per industry and function)
flexibility to ramp up/down addressed yet for savings (e.g., rent)
Drive benchmark cost per FTE
Adjust FTEs using HR instruments Establish cost conscious culture compared with industry standard
with clear horizontal cost-ownership
Source: BCG 20
As of 15 May 2020
Cost take-out Stress due to Oil trading prices Land oil rig count in Global April oil demand
Example 1 the crisis fell by ~40%1 US down by 34%2 down by ~30mmb/d3
Initiatives implemented for driving

cost take-out Impact
Global upstream oil &
gas service
and gas service
company
20% HQ personnel reduction;
drove workforce
company drove Streamlined
personnel costs
over 3,000personnel in alternate
flexibility &flexibility
workforce other cost
work-week schedule
~60%
saving
and other
measures
cost saving
to Selective suspension of operations
to optimize operational costs
Estimated cost reduction
in selected areas
Reduced non-
minimize impact
measures to personnel costs Cascaded plan to cut ~$1 billion of
annualized overhead and other costs
from the crisis
minimize impact
from the crisis
6-9 months
Restructured Agile org-restructuring across Of low prices can be weathered
organization functions in North America due to cost savings initiatives
1. WTI oil prices since 01-Mar'20; 2. Since mid-Mar'20; 3. Million Barrels per day as compared to last year 21
Source: Press search; BCG
As of 15 May 2020
Cost take-out Stress due to Investor and economic pressure Urge to protect the core technology
Example 2 the crisis to reduce costs quickly capabilities for long-term success
Initiatives implemented for driving

cost take-out Impact
Growth technology Defined vision, and prioritized
company accelerated
capabilities within first two weeks
Vision, targets,
Defined scenarios, targets (FTE and
and plan
rapid and radical cost budget), timeline
realignment in crisis
Kicked off cost PMO
~45%
mode Total cost reduction in six weeks
Reduced 30% of core business-
Agile org related costs
design, staffing,
and action Reduced > 60% SG&A cost
in non-revenue-generating business
Core technology capabilities protected

Refined org model, during cost-reduction process
communicated the new focus
Streamlined Kicked off non-personnel
remaining costs cost reduction
Developed interim op model
and transition to steady state
Source: Press releases; BCG 22

Topline security | Companies are sensing demand via high frequency
data and react in agile ways to secure topline
As of 06 May 2020
1 Demand forecast
Traditional forecast methods are
Example: Consumer sentiment and web traffic data foresee spend increase
Online grocery
Year-over-year change (%) Survey respondents (%) 60
Real change in spending
Historical: Confirmation that increase occurred
200
less reliable during crises
40 Real change in web traffic
Use high-frequency indicators 100 Immediate term: Strong predictor of changes
to sense changing demand 20
Consumers expecting to increase
0 0 spending during next month1
29 5 12 19 26 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29
Jan Feb Mar Apr Short term: Signal that the increase may persist
2 Topline levers
Securing topline is critical to
Example: Company responses to customers' increased online activity
Channel shift Marketing spend Customer engagement

keep businesses running Beverage producer shifted Fitness studio chain focused Lifestyle player personalized
Be agile and creative in sales channel including marketing spend on new member offers based on member
responding to changes loyalty program online and acquisition for underutilized customer lifetime value and
achieved sales uplift of 40% studios resulting in 3-4% higher observed behaviors, increasing
on e-commerce platform lead and trial conversion tenure by 8-12% for 75% of
customer base
1. Compared with prior year. Source: SimilarWeb; Earnest Research, May 6, 2020; BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, April 24-27, 2020 (N = 2,783 US), unweighted,
representative within +-3% of census demographics; press releases; BCG 23
Time for performance transformation is now | Positional churn
of companies highest during crises and increasingly over time
Rate of firms leaving Fortune 500 during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was 90% higher than the rate for the ten years that followed
Number of firms dropping out of Fortune 500 list

70 67
Avg.
during
60 GFC (59)
54
50
46
+90%
40 37
30 27
Avg. for
last 10
20
years
(31)
10
66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 952 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Year
1
Recession
1. Officially designated by National Bureau of Economic Research. 2. Large change in 1995 list due to change in list-compilation methodology, and is therefore excluded
Source: Fortune 500 Listings; NBER; BCG analysis. 24
Learnings from successful transformations | Specific milestones
during each step of the journey
Rapid Assessment to Shape

Fully Mobilize
Initiate Performance Transformation Plan
Drive Advantage in Adversity
Response
Accelerate Rapid Response Measures
Initial responses Specific scenarios developed and Full organization activated within first Holistic performance initiatives launched and
developed in one month trigger points identified 100 days executed with tracking on weekly, monthly,
(e.g. cash, liquidity, no- and quarterly basis
regret cost out, insured Performance levers identified, Initiatives maturing, delivering results
supply chain, secured sized, and prioritized, and firmed Targets aligned on a quarterly basis
topline) up into a roadmap using Change management program
strategic, operational, and launched to mobilize leaders and Leaders activated and organization enabled
Data is collected, financial lenses people
scrubbed, and validated Cost leadership embedded into organization
Transformation operating model Leadership committed to plans and
Multi-functional established targets; linkage established with New capabilities (e.g. digital, AI2) built and
response team identified incentive schemes new ways of working embedded
and enabled Performance response further
accelerated Further initiatives (procurement, Wins during transformation shared,
SCM1, etc.) ramped up and launched understood, and appreciated in the
organization
1. Supply Chain Management; 2. Artificial Intelligence

Source: BCG 25
1 Guide for leaders
2
Economic impact

Further readings
26
EPIDEMIC PROGRESSION,
~36% reported recoveries1 globally so far; VIRUS MONITORING, &
HEALTH CARE CAPACITY
case-doubling rate improves to 33 days
As of 15 May 2020
UK
17th Apr'20 1st May'20 15th May' 20
France Italy
Spain
USA China Japan
Iran
South
India
Korea
16
8 26
12 18
33
days days days
days
# of days of doubling2 the cases globally
568k 1,053k 1,637k

(25%) (32%) (36%)
Days of doubling cases:
Total # of recoveries (as % of confirmed cases)
0-3 days 3-6 days 6-14 days 14-30 days >30 days
185 4.5M 308k

24
55 49 69
67
[∆2.1%]4 [∆1.7%]4
Countries with cases3 Confirmed cases globally Fatalities globally # of countries with community transmission5
Note: Continued cases and fatalities are subject to different testing, propensity, reporting standards and hence are imperfect measures
1. Refers to total reported recoveries as a percentage of total reported infections (cases), 2. No. of doubling days based on 7-day CAGR 3. Basis Johns Hopkins CSSE; 4. Daily growth rate basis 7-day CAGR;
5. Community transmission defined basis WHO - Countries experiencing larger outbreaks of local transmission on basis of decided factors 27
Sources: Johns Hopkins CSSE, Our world in data, WHO situation reports, BCG analysis
As countries move into Fight phase, several have started to see VIRUS MONITORING, &
decline in number of daily cases
As of 15 May 2020 Non-exhaustive
Several countries increasing doubling rate... ...driven by decline in number of daily cases
Flatten Daily cases (seven-day moving average)
Daily growth rate of total cases (seven-day average) for countries2 with doubling rate > 14 days
7% 80,000
South Africa
Rates improving from top to bottom
Russia
6% Qatar Brazil
India Cases doubling:
Mexico 60,000
14 days
5%
4% Cases doubling: USA

21 days
40,000
Singapore Canada
3%
Spain
Sweden UK
2% Iran UK
Canada
US 20,000 Italy
Belgium
Austria Netherlands France
1% France Germany Germany
S Korea
Japan China Italy
Australia Spain Iran
0% 0
Fight 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 01 Mar 15 Mar 01 Apr 15 Apr 01 May 15 May
Cumulative number of confirmed cases (log scale)
Asia1 Europe North America South America Africa Asia1 Europe North America
1. Includes Middle East & Australia 2. Countries selected from the chart on the left
Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE, Our World in data 28
Some countries currently have cases doubling in under 14 days; VIRUS MONITORING, &
strong monitoring in the next few weeks
As of 15 May 2020 Non-exhaustive
S. Africa Cases doubling: 11 Brazil 12

Flatten Max/day:
Daily growth rate of total cases (seven-day average) Max/day:
785 17,126
7%
South Africa
Rates improving from top to bottom
Russia
# of new # of new
6% Brazil cases cases
Qatar
Days since first 100 infections Days since first 100 infections
India Cases doubling:
Mexico
14 days
5% Qatar 12 India 13
Max/day: Max/day:
4% Cases doubling: 1,733 4,353
21 days
Singapore
3% # of new # of new
cases cases
Sweden Days since first 100 infections Days since first 100 infections
2% Iran UK US
Canada Belgium Mexico 13 Russia 14
Austria Netherlands Max/day:
1% Max/day:
France Germany
S Korea 2,437 11,656
Japan China Italy
Australia Spain
0%
Fight 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 # of new
# of new
Cumulative number of confirmed cases (log scale) cases cases
Days since first 100 infections Days since first 100 infections
Asia1 Europe North America South America Africa
Note: For doubling days, round off values calculated based on last 7 days CAGR of total confirmed cases 1. Includes Middle East, Australia
Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE, Our World in data, WHO situation reports 29
While countries further relax lockdown measures, EPIDEMIC PROGRESSION,
VIRUS MONITORING, &
they are substantially ramping-up testing HEALTH CARE CAPACITY
As of 15 May 2020
Cumulative # of cases per million population

6,000
Spain
Iceland • For countries with complete or
Singapore partial lockdowns (Singapore, UK,
Belgium
France, etc.), reopening is gated
USA by lack of widespread testing
4,000 Italy
UK
Switzerland • For countries with relaxed
Sweden lockdowns (S. Korea, Australia, etc.),
Peru
continued higher testing is
France
critical
Netherlands
2,000 Germany UAE
Ecuador Canada Israel • For countries to move to the right
Saudi Arabia Norway and reopen, they need an
Iran
integrated Virus Monitoring
Brazil Australia System that includes testing,
Japan S. Korea tracking, and tracing
India South Africa Malaysia
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 150
Total tests / Total cases
Source: World-o-meter, BCG Analysis 30
Testing landscape is changing | Tests to detect viral genome EPIDEMIC PROGRESSION,
VIRUS MONITORING, &
and patient immune response are now available HEALTH CARE CAPACITY
As of 15 May 2020 Not exhaustive; US example
Becoming available now

Test purpose Available for last 3+ weeks (over last 1-2 weeks) In development
Lab-based
Presence of
viral genome
Near-patient
/Point-of-Care
Lab-based
Immune
response to
virus Near-patient Many players announced
/Point-of-Care development plans1
Antigen tests:
Presence of viral particle
Viral load:
Currently none
Amount of virus
1. More than 180 serology test makers have notified FDA that they have serology tests available for use as of May 15, 2020
Source: CDC website, FDA website, company websites, BCG analysis 31
Vaccine fast movers | 7 vaccine candidates already into clinical trials VIRUS MONITORING, &
As of 15 May 2020
2 Phase II 4 Phase I/II 1 Phase I
CanSino Biologics BioNTech & Pfizer China National Biotec1 Inovio

Phase II Phase I/II Phase I/II Phase I
Phase 2 advancement since Trial ongoing in Germany; Trial started in Apr 2020; Trial started in Apr 2020;
Apr 2020; follow-up if approved, distribution expected completion of final larger studies possible in
expected by Oct 2020 possible by Oct-Dec 2020 trials by Nov 2021 Jun-Aug 2020
Moderna
Phase II
Oxford Uni. & AstraZeneca
Phase I/II
Sinovac
Phase I/II
125 Pre-clinical
Early results of trial expected Trial on-going in UK; Trial started in Apr 2020;
by Jun 2020 (expanded to late-stage trials possible in expected completion by
include older adults) Jul 2020 Aug 2020
132 Total
1. Listed as 2 candidates by WHO: Beijing institute of Biological Products / Sinopharm & Wuhan Institute of Biological Products / Sinopharm
Source: WHO (May 15th), Citeline Pharma Project (May 19th), Milken Institute (May 12th), ClinicalTrials.gov (May 19th), Bloomberg, BCG analysis 32
Therapeutics outlook | Timeline and key developments across EPIDEMIC PROGRESSION,
VIRUS MONITORING, &
critical trials show broad availability by end of Q3 2020 earliest HEALTH CARE CAPACITY
As of 28 Apr 2020
Therapy Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 2021+
Gilead and NIH Gilead provides Phase III studies show reduced time to
Remdesivir launch multicenter compassionate- recovery; FDA authorizes emergency use
Phase III trials use access
Ritonovir/ Randomized controlled Drug combination

lopinavir trials in China fail to included in WHO
show clinical benefit Solidarity trial
Neutralizing Trials launched; multiple Initial lead-candidate data

antibodies companies pushing development, expected from multiple
incl. several partnerships trials
Convalescent FDA authorized FDA greenlights Phase III randomized Therapy to expand
plasma emergency use Phase II trials controlled trials expected nationwide, pending
in April 2020 to launch in May 2020 Phase III results
Hyperimmune Clinical trials Phase II and III readouts,

globuline anticipated to begin August to September
in June 2020 2020, and early access
Observation study Roche Phase III Preliminary results Wide availability,

Tocilizumab in China shows trial launched in reveal significant pending Phase III
improved survival March 2020 mortality reduction trial results
Phase II and III Interim results show lower Wide availability,

Sarilumab trials launched in mortality in mechanically pending Phase III
March 2020 ventilated patients trial results
Chloroquine/
hydroxy- French Study shows Retrospective NIH ORCHID EPICOS study Preliminary ORCHID Wide availability if Interim Oxford
reduction in viral load study shows no and Oxford trials in Spain results expected shown to be effective in study results
chloroquine clinical benefit launched in April 2020 in fall of 2020 randomized controlled trails expected in 2021
Trial start Preliminary data Early access Broad availability 33

Source: Company websites; National Institutes of Health, ClinicalTrails.gov data, April 28, 2020, WHO, BCG analysis
Scenarios and impact | Five key questions ECONOMIC IMPACT
As of 15 May 2020 Illustrative

Shut down Restart Vaccine/treatment
Economic
activity 1a 2a
100% 3
2b
1b Potential pathways
Critical care
patients
What will the LENGTH of "Flatten” be? What will the LENGTH of "Fight” be?
1a What are the preconditions to transition? 2a What are the preconditions to transition? Where does the
Five questions When will we achieve them? When will we achieve them? economy return to,
will shape the 3 relative to the pre-
economic What will the DEPTH of "Fight" be? COVID era in
To what DEPTH does the economy "Future"?
impact 1b
drop in "Flatten"?
2b What level of recovery does the economy
achieve in "Fight"?
Source: BCG 34
Methodology | To determine economic impact, must derive ECONOMIC IMPACT
depth (from economic starting point) and factor in length of crisis
Shown for 'Flatten' as length
of 'Fight' still unknown
Pre-crisis Pre-crisis
Fight Fight
Flatten Flatten
Economic starting point: Depth: Length: Projected economic impact:
Understanding a country's Deriving the Factoring in the Determining the result as full-
sector composition impaired'Flatten' economic duration
| Impaired economic activity (depth) and lockdown
'Flatten'
ofduration
| Impaired
crisis year economic impact from
economic activity (depth) and lockdown duration
'Flatten' |activity
ECONOMIC IMPACT
direct impact of disease

ECONOMIC IMPACT
(length) yield full-year economic impact for
Impaired economic activity (depth) and lockdown duration
'Flatten'
(length)phase
yield full-year economic impact for 'Flatten' phase
ECONOMIC IMPACT
(length) yield full-year economic impact for 'Flatten' phase
As of 05 May 2020 As of 05 May 2020 Need to combine pre-crisis, 'Flatten' & 'Fight'
phase to conclude impact for 2020
Need to combine pre-crisis, 'Flatten' & 'Fight'
As of 05 May 2020 Impaired economic activity1 due to COVID-19 during 'Flatten' phase Impaired
Need to combine Lockdown
economic
pre-crisis, 'Flatten' & 'Fight' activity1Full-year economic
due to COVID-19 impact
during 'Flatten' phase Lockdown Full-year economic impact
Economic starting point | Understanding of countries' sector Estimation in private sector relative to pre-COVID in %
in %comparable to GDP, excl. gov't
Not directly
ECONOMIC IMPACT Estimation in privateduration
sector relative to pre-COVID duration Not directly comparable to GDP, excl. gov't
composition critical to estimate negative impact of reduced contact 1
Impaired economic activity due to COVID-19 during 'Flatten' phase Lockdown Full-year economic impact
(in weeks) spending, invest. & changes in balance of trade
(in weeks) spending, invest. & changes in balance of trade
Estimation in private sector relative to pre-COVID in % duration Not directly comparable to GDP, excl. gov't
As of 05 May 2020 spending, invest. & changes in balance of trade vs. pre-COVID vs. pre-COVID
Revenue by sector (%)
Preliminary figures France (in weeks) 8
France -2% – -5% run rate2 8 -2% – -5% run rate2
vs. pre-COVID
E.g., groceries, & health care E.g., legal, & E.g., auto & E.g., tourism France 8 -2% – -5% run rate2
France
providers
54%
software
12%
mining
22%
& restaurants
12%
Germany 4-6
Germany -1% – -3% 4-6 -1% – -3%
Germany 4-6 -1% – -3%
Germany 65% 11% 16% 9%
Europe Italy Europe 8-12
Italy -2% – -6% 8-12 -2% – -6%
Europe Italy 66% 8% 14% 12%
For each country and Europe Italy 8-12 -2% – -6%
sector cluster, estimates
Spain 8-14
Spain -3% – -8% 8-14 -3% – -8%
x
on activity reduction are Spain 8-14 -3% – -8%
=
Spain 57% 7% 21% 15%
made
UK 68% 11% 7% 13%
UK UK 7-12 -2% – -6% 7-12 UK -2% – -6% 7-12 -2% – -6%
Example of Germany:
North Am. US 53% 13% 23% 11%
60-80% activity reduction North Am. US 10-14 -2% Am.
– -7%
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
1% North Am. US North 10-14US -2% – -7% 10-14 -2% – -7%

estimated for 'red' sectors

Brazil 71% 9% 18%
LatAm (consumer services, retail,
Brazil 4-6 -1% – -3%
Mexico 62% 8% 19% 11% travel & tourism, food service
& drinking places) LatAm Brazil Brazil
4-6 -1% – -3% 4-6 -1% – -3%
India 71% 4% 19% 6% Mexico LatAm 8-12 LatAm
-2% – -8%
Asia
Japan 53% 5% 29% 12%
Mexico Mexico
8-12 -2% – -8% 8-12 -2% – -8%
India 8 -2% – -5%
Asia -2% – -5%
Under stay-at-home order Open
Low to High
Limited
Low
Limited
Medium
Limited
High India 8India -2% – -5% 8
Contact intensity
Japan 6-10 -2%
Asia– -6%
Asia
-2% – -6%
Note: European figures reflect gross output by sector, which is analogous to revenue by sector. US figures directly reflect revenue by sector.
Source: Eurostat Database; St. Louis Fed Reserve; O*NET; American Community Survey; other country-specific sources available on request; BCG COVID response teams; BCG Analysis 2 -30% Japan-20% -10% 0% Japan
6-10 -2% – -6% 6-10
Disclaimer: These analyses represent only potential scenarios based on discrete data from one point in time. They are not intended as a Max of estimated range Min of
prediction or forecast and the situation is changing daily. Figures shown only reflect economic activity "directly displaced" by effect of virus.
However, multi-order impacts and the impact of government spending and stimulus not considered -30% -20% -10%hardest hit by the lockdown)
(i.e. period 0% estimated range -30% -20% -10% 0%
Note: Lockdown length capped at 6 weeks.; Disclaimer:
We expect a These analyses
lot of variations represent
across only potential
geographies, even withinscenarios
countries. based on discrete data from one point in time. They are not Disclaimer:
intendedThese as a analyses represent only potential scenarios based on discrete data from one point in time. They are not intended as a Max of estimated range Min of
prediction
1. European figures reflect gross output by orisforecast
sector, which analogous and the situation
to revenue by sector. is
USchanging daily.
figures directly Figures
reflect shown
revenue only reflect
by sector. economic
2. Only accounts foractivity
COVID-19"directly prediction
displaced"
impact, does not or forecast
byineffect
factor of virus.
underlying growth.
Max
and the of estimated
situation rangedaily. Figures shown only
is changing Minreflect
of economic activity "directly displaced" by effect of virus.
However, multi-order 3(i.e.
impacts andperiod hardest
the impact of hit by the lockdown)
government spending and estimated
stimulusrange
not considered (i.e. period hardest hit by the lockdown) estimated range
Result is full-year economic impact (not

Source: Eurostat Database; St. Louis Fed However, multi-order
Reserve; O*NET; Americanimpacts
Communityand the impact
Survey; of government
other country-specific sourcesspending and
available on stimulus
request; not considered
BCG COVID response teams; BCG Analysis
Note: Lockdown length capped at 6 weeks.; We expect a lot of variations across geographies, even within countries. Note: Lockdown length capped at 6 weeks.; We expect a lot of variations across geographies, even within countries.
1. European
1. European figures reflect gross output by sector, which is analogous to revenue by sector. US figures directly reflect revenue figures
by sector. reflect
2. Only gross output
accounts by sector,
for COVID-19 which does
impact, is analogous to in
not factor revenue by sector.
underlying US figures directly reflect revenue by sector. 2. Only accounts for COVID-19 impact, does not factor in underlying growth.
growth.
Source: Eurostat Database; St. Louis Fed Reserve; O*NET; American Community Survey; other country-specific sources availableSource: Eurostat Database;
on request; St. Louis
BCG COVID Fed Reserve;
response teams;O*NET; American Community Survey; other country-specific
BCG Analysis 3 sources available on request; BCG COVID response teams; BCG Analysis 3
For each country and sector cluster, For each country, expected comparable to GDP as excludes fiscal stimulus
For each country, a range of
assumptions are made on activity- length of stay-at-home order is and other effects) – need to combine pre-crisis,
microeconomic loss is derived
reduction based on reduced contact factored in Flatten, and Fight phase to conclude impact
for 2020
Source: BCG 35
Economic starting point | Understanding of countries' sector ECONOMIC IMPACT
composition critical to estimate negative impact of reduced contact
As of 15 May 2020 Revenue by sector (%) Preliminary figures
E.g., groceries, & health care E.g., legal, & E.g., auto & E.g., tourism
providers software mining & restaurants
France 54% 12% 22% 12%
Germany 65% 11% 16% 9%
Europe Italy 66% 8% 14% 12% For each country and
sector cluster, estimates
Spain 67% 7% 11% 15%
on activity reduction
UK 68% 11% 7% 13% are made
North Am. US 53% 13% 23% 11%

Example of Germany:
1%
Brazil 71% 9% 18% 60-80% activity reduction
LatAm estimated for 'red' sectors
Mexico 62% 8% 19% 11% (consumer services, retail,
travel and tourism, food
India 71% 4% 19% 6% service, and bars)
Asia China 65% 25% 10%
Japan 53% 5% 29% 12%
Under stay-at-home order Open Limited Limited Limited

Contact intensity Low to High Low Medium High
Note: European figures reflect gross output by sector, which is analogous to revenue by sector. US figures directly reflect revenue by sector.
Source: Eurostat Database; CNBS; Statistics Bureau of Japan; St. Louis Fed; O*NET; American Community Survey; other country-specific sources on request; BCG COVID response teams; BCG 36
'Flatten' | Impaired economic activity (depth) and lockdown duration ECONOMIC IMPACT
(length) yield full-year economic impact for 'Flatten' phase
As of 15 May 2020 Need to combine pre-crisis, 'Flatten' & 'Fight'
Impaired economic activity1 due to COVID-19 during 'Flatten' phase x Lockdown = Full-year economic impact
Estimation in private sector relative to pre-COVID in % duration Not directly comparable to GDP, excludes gov't
(in weeks) spending, investment, and changes in balance of trade
France 8 -2% – -4% vs. pre-COVID

run rate2
Germany 4-6 -1% – -3%
Europe Italy 8-12 -2% – -6%
Spain 8-12 -2% – -6%
UK 7-12 -2% – -6%
North Am. US 10-14 -2% – -7%
Brazil 4-6 -1% – -3%
LatAm
Mexico 8-12 -2% – -8%
India 8 -2% – -4%
Asia
Japan 6-10 -2% – -6%
-30% -20% -10% 0%
Disclaimer: These analyses represent only potential scenarios based on discrete data from one point in time. They are not intended as a Max of estimated range Min of
However, multi-order impacts and the impact of government spending and stimulus not considered (i.e. period hardest hit by the lockdown) estimated range
Note: Lockdown length capped at 6 weeks.; We expect a lot of variations across geographies, even within countries
1. European figures reflect gross output by sector, which is analogous to revenue by sector. US figures directly reflect revenue by sector. 2. Only accounts for COVID-19 impact, does not factor in underlying growth.
Source: Eurostat Database; St. Louis Fed Reserve; O*NET; American Community Survey; other country-specific sources available on request; BCG COVID response teams; BCG Analysis 37
'Fight' | ~5 to 25% of economic activity can be temporarily at risk – ECONOMIC IMPACT
implying protracted economic challenges
As of 15 May 2020
Impaired economic activity1 during 'Fight' phase
Estimation in private sector relative to pre-COVID-19 in %
France
Germany
Europe Italy
Spain Sector mix and local
conditions will vary the
UK
depth of 'Fight' on very
North Am. US short timescales, making
Brazil the full-year economic
LatAm impact challenging to
Mexico
estimate precisely
India
Asia China
Japan
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
Disclaimer: These analyses represent only potential scenarios based on discrete data from one point in time. They are not intended as a Upper bound Base Lower bound
However, multi-order impacts and the impact of government spending and stimulus not considered case case case
Note: We expect a lot of variations across geographies, even within countries, hence the wide ranges.
1. European figures reflect gross output by sector, which is analogous to revenue by sector. US figures directly reflect revenue by sector.
Source: Eurostat Database; CNBS;Statistics Bureau of Japan; St. Louis Fed Reserve; O*NET; American Community Survey; other country-specific sources available on request; BCG COVID response teams; BCG 38
1 Guide for leaders
2
Economic impact

Further readings
39
Based on survey of
Recent learnings 1 Strive to defy the average 7,000 CEOs worldwide
from successful Focus more on innovation and new opportunities in order to be exceptional.
Defy the average within your industry; focus less on “best practices” which
CEOs tend to level performance
2 Identify key moves and act preemptively
Early action is key; accelerate turnover of underperforming management teams,
make deals early, and embark on transforming organizations early when needed
CEOs are in the spotlight more than
ever as they lead their companies
through the current crisis. By
understanding principles
3 Take a de-averaged and dynamic approach to strategy
underpinning when and how much Adopt the right approach to strategy in each part of the business, and in particular,
leadership matters, and factors that use dynamic and/or creative approaches where necessary. In more uncertain
increase the odds of success, leaders and fast-moving contexts, classic planning is not always the best approach
can learn valuable lessons about
navigating today’s challenges
4 Articulate and fulfill a positive social purpose
For further details; refer to the article Articulate a purpose beyond maximizing financial returns, and improve performance
from BCG Henderson Institute: on non-financial dimensions as well. Pursue sustainable business models as expectations
Leadership Matters: When, How Much, of social contributions are increasing
and How?
40
Additional perspectives on COVID-19
COVID-19 BCG Perspectives Relevant topic publications Selected sector publications
Edition #5 Edition #4 Cash & Liquidity Cash & Liquidity Consumer Automotive
Revamping Accelerating digital & A Cash Management Essential lifeline: Rapid- COVID-19 Consumer Auto Companies Will
Organizations for the technology Survival Guide Response Cash Sentiment Snapshot #9 Outlast COVID-19 and
New Reality transformation Management Office Come Out Stronger
Edition #3 Edition #2 Leadership Finance Travel & Tourism Health Care

Emerging stronger from Preparing for the restart Leadership Matters: The COVID-19 CFO The Great Reset for COVID-19 Stressing Finances
the crisis When, How Much, and Pulse Check Revenue Management of Even the Strongest US
How? in Travel Health Systems
Edition #1 Transformation Transformation Power & Utilities Technology

Facts, scenarios, and COVID-19 Response: Crisis Can Spark B2B Energy Retailers Is Your Technology
actions for leaders Big Decisions for CEOs Transformation and Can Weather the Ready for the New
Right Now Renewal COVID-19 Storm Digital Reality?
Source: BCG 41
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or inaccurate.
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42
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COVID-19

Version: 19 May 2020

Flatten Fight Future

Establish crisis 1 Develop Scenario-Based

9 Help Society during

Note: RR&T = Rapid Response and Transformation Team

1. Basis IMF forecast for 2020

Flatten Fight Future

1. Disease progression, health care system capacity, and response

2. Government policies and economic stimulus

4. Business engagement and response

5. Public engagement and response

3 Appendix: Further readings

Epidemic Progression Economic Impact Business Impact

Stock market performance9

Economic Supply chain Revenue Sector

-3.0% -30% 50% 11 out of 24

GDP growth forecast vs. baseline for 2020 [%]

-5.2% 0.7% -7.2% 1.3%

1.2% 6.0% -7.0% 1.1%

Global trade impact Global supply chain

Metals imported from various

Consumer sentiment % of companies expecting negative revenue impact in FY20

46% -23% -21% -6% -20%

51% < - 20%

are careful and cut back

Food/staples Retail 0% -2%

Tech Hardware 0% -15%

Retailing 47% -20%

Durable Goods 5% -29%

YTD shareholder return in % per sector

For deep-dive, refer Edition 5

Steer crisis response centrally

From crisis response... ...to driving the transformation …

Organize people for Continue to protect people, build new capabilities

focus on liquidity to strengthen cash position and financial resilience

Strongly disagree Somewhat disagree Somewhat agree Strongly agree

Introduce Generate Build liquidity Define rules for Secure

Cash & Liquidity Stress on liquidity and

Initiatives implemented for

(eliminated short- and long-term bonuses)

Cash & Liquidity Stress on liquidity and

Initiatives implemented for

Cascaded plan to reduce cash burn

Streamline personnel costs Reduce non-personnel costs Drive efficiency in operations

Initiatives implemented for driving

Initiatives implemented for driving

Core technology capabilities protected

Source: Press releases; BCG 22

Channel shift Marketing spend Customer engagement

Number of firms dropping out of Fortune 500 list

Rapid Assessment to Shape

1. Supply Chain Management; 2. Artificial Intelligence

3 Appendix: Further readings

# of days of doubling2 the cases globally

568k 1,053k 1,637k

185 4.5M 308k

4% Cases doubling: USA

S. Africa Cases doubling: 11 Brazil 12