ITC Financial Model
ITC Financial Model
ITC Financial Model
Company Analysis
Nifty v/s ITC
14000.00 400.00
12000.00 350.00
300.00
10000.00
250.00
8000.00
200.00
6000.00
150.00
4000.00
100.00
2000.00 50.00
0.00 0.00
01-Apr-15 01-Dec-15 01-Aug-16 01-Apr-17 01-Dec-17 01-Aug-18 01-Apr-19 01-Dec-19
Working Capital
250 Historical figures Forecast period
200 186.08 176.12 174.35 174.35 174.35 174.35 174.35
160.86
150
0
a l a l l l st st st st
tu tu t ua t ua ca ca ca ca
Ac Ac Ac Ac re re re re
17 18 19 20 Fo Fo Fo Fo
- - - - 21 22 23 24
16 17 18 19 0- 1- 2- 3-
20 20 20 20 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2
FY FY FY FY 2 2 2 2
FY FY FY FY
Financial Year
10.00%
5.00%
5.00%
0.00%
01-Apr-15 01-Jan-16 01-Oct-16 01-Jul-17 01-Apr-18 01-Jan-19 01-Oct-19 0.00%
-5.00%
-5.00%
-10.00%
-10.00%
-15.00% -15.00%
60000 40.00%
35.00%
50000
30.00%
40000 25.00%
30000 20.00%
15.00%
20000
10.00%
10000 5.00%
0 0.00%
FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 FY 2020-21 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 FY 2023-24 FY 2024-25
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
-5.00%
-10.00%
-15.00%
Income Statement
Historial Period Comparative P&L Common Size P&L Trend Trend Line
FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20
( ₹ in Crores) Actual Actual Actual Actual FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 FY 2017-20
Gross Revenue from Operation 58,731.5 47,362.5 49,348.4 50,968.5 -19.36% 4.19% 3.28% 109.83% 103.16% 104.06% 100.00% 104.19% 107.61%
Excise Duty (15,927.9) (4,239.6) (1,509.4) (1,989.4) -73.38% -64.40% 31.80% -9.83% -3.16% -4.06% 100.00% 35.60% 46.92%
Net Revenue from Operation 42,803.6 43,122.9 47,839.0 48,979.1 0.75% 10.94% 2.38% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 110.94% 113.58%
Other Operating Revenue - 326.0 513.7 425.0 - 57.58% -17.27% 0.76% 1.07% 0.87% 100.00% 157.58% 130.37%
Total Operating Revenue 42,803.6 43,448.9 48,352.7 49,404.1 1.51% 11.29% 2.17% 100.76% 101.07% 100.87% 100.00% 111.29% 113.71%
Expenses
COGS (14,864.0) (15,855.5) (17,420.3) (17,345.5) 6.67% 9.87% -0.43% -36.77% -36.41% -35.41% 100.00% 109.87% 109.40%
Employee Benefit Expenses (3,631.7) (3,760.9) (4,177.9) (4,295.8) 3.56% 11.09% 2.82% -8.72% -8.73% -8.77% 100.00% 111.09% 114.22%
Other Expenses (7,686.8) (7,349.6) (8,348.1) (8,502.6) -4.39% 13.59% 1.85% -17.04% -17.45% -17.36% 100.00% 113.59% 115.69%
Total Operating Expenses (26,182.6) (26,966.0) (29,946.3) (30,143.9) 2.99% 11.05% 0.66% -62.53% -62.60% -61.54% 100.00% 111.05% 111.78%
EBITDA 16,621.1 16,482.9 18,406.4 19,260.2 -0.83% 11.67% 4.64% 38.22% 38.48% 39.32% 100.00% 111.67% 116.85%
Depreciation & Amortisation (1,152.8) (1,236.3) (1,396.6) (1,644.9) 7.24% 12.97% 17.78% -2.87% -2.92% -3.36% 100.00% 112.97% 133.05%
EBIT 15,468.3 15,246.6 17,009.7 17,615.3 -1.43% 11.56% 3.56% 35.36% 35.56% 35.96% 100.00% 111.56% 115.54%
Other Income 1,761.5 1,831.9 2,173.8 2,597.9 3.99% 18.67% 19.51% 4.25% 4.54% 5.30% 100.00% 118.67% 141.82%
Finance Cost (24.3) (89.9) (45.4) (54.7) 270.00% -49.48% 20.39% -0.21% -0.09% -0.11% 100.00% 50.52% 60.82%
Exceptional Items - 412.9 - (132.1) - -100.00% - 0.0 0.00% (0.0) 100.00% 0.00% -32.00%
EBT Before Share in Profit of Associates and 17,205.5 17,401.5 19,138.1 20,026.4 1.14% 9.98% 4.64% 40.35% 40.01% 40.89% 100.00% 109.98% 115.08%
Minority Interest
Share in Profit of Associates 6.0 7.6 11.7 8.2 26.97% 54.35% -29.74% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 100.00% 154.35% 108.44%
EBT 17,211.5 17,409.1 19,149.8 20,034.6 10.00% 4.62% 40.37% 40.03% 40.90% 100.00% 110.00% 115.08%
Tax (5,549.1) (5,916.4) (6,313.9) (4,441.8) 6.62% 6.72% -29.65% -13.72% -13.20% -9.07% 100.00% 106.72% 75.08%
Earnings Before Minority Shareholdres 11,662.4 11,492.6 12,835.9 15,592.8 -1.46% 11.69% 21.48% 26.65% 26.83% 31.84% 100.00% 111.69% 135.68%
Minority Interest (187.8) (221.3) (243.6) (286.9) 17.85% 10.06% 17.79% -0.51% -0.51% -0.59% 100.00% 110.06% 129.64%
Net Income / EAESH 11,474.6 11,271.3 12,592.3 15,305.9 -1.77% 11.72% 21.55% 26.14% 26.32% 31.25% 100.00% 111.72% 135.80%
Dividend 7,577.2 8,497.6 8,709.0 12.15% 2.49% 17.57% 17.76% 17.78% 100.00% 112.15% 114.94%
EPS 9.2 10.3 12.6 11.96% 22.33% 0.02% 0.02% 0.03% 100.00% 111.96% 136.96%
No of Outstanding Shares 1,225.1 1,222.6 1,214.8
Retained Earnings 3,694.1 4,094.7 6,596.9 10.84% 61.11% 8.57% 8.56% 13.47% 100.00% 110.84% 178.58%
Balance Sheet
Historial Period Comparative Balance Sheet Common Size Balance Sheet Trend Trend Line
( ₹ in Crores) FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 FY 2017-20
Actual Actual Actual Actual
Liabilities
Non-Current Liabilities
Financial Liabilities 59.6 79.3 81.6 337.8 33.01% 2.86% 314.14% 0.12% 0.11% 0.44% 100.00% 102.86% 414.14%
Provisions 158.4 149.6 162.0 175.4 -5.55% 8.23% 8.29% 0.23% 0.23% 0.23% 100.00% 108.23% 108.29%
Deffered Tax Liabilities (Net) 1,878.8 1,923.0 2,052.1 1,627.2 2.36% 6.71% -20.70% 2.99% 2.86% 2.10% 100.00% 106.71% 79.30%
Other Non- Current Liabilities 17.8 42.2 6.5 16.2 137.16% -84.57% 148.85% 0.07% 0.01% 0.02% 100.00% 15.43% 248.85%
Total Non-Current Liabilities 2114.59 2194.1 2302.1 2156.5 3.76% 4.92% -6.32% 3.41% 3.21% 2.79% 100.00% 104.92% 93.68%
Current Liabilities
Financial Liabilities 922.36 1011.2 1189.0 1460.2 9.63% 17.58% 22.80% 1.57% 1.66% 1.89% 100.00% 117.58% 122.80%
Trade Payables 2659.33 3496.2 3509.6 3629.8 31.47% 0.38% 3.43% 5.44% 4.89% 4.69% 100.00% 100.38% 103.43%
Other Current Liabilities 3327.46 4610.4 4838.3 4072.7 38.56% 4.94% -15.82% 7.17% 6.74% 5.26% 100.00% 104.94% 84.18%
Provisions 61.16 63.8 51.4 148.2 4.32% -19.47% 188.40% 0.10% 0.07% 0.19% 100.00% 80.53% 288.40%
Current Tax Liabilities (Net) 150.7 68.6 423.7 248.9 -54.51% 517.98% -41.26% 0.11% 0.59% 0.32% 100.00% 617.98% 58.74%
Total Current Liabilities 7121.01 9250.2 10012.0 9559.8 29.90% 8.24% -4.52% 14.39% 13.94% 12.36% 100.00% 108.24% 95.48%
Total Equity and Liabilities 55,943 64288.9 71798.4 77367.0 14.92% 11.68% 7.76% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 111.68% 107.76%
Assets
Non-Current Assets
Property,Plant and Equipment 15262.27 15863.7 18625.7 19632.9 3.94% 17.41% 5.41% 24.68% 25.94% 25.38% 100.00% 117.41% 105.41%
Capital WIP 3684.2 5499.6 4126.2 3251.6 49.28% -24.97% -21.20% 8.55% 5.75% 4.20% 100.00% 75.03% 78.80%
Investment Property 0 0.0 0.0 385.4 - - - 0.00% 0.00% 0.50% 100.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Goodwill on Consolidation 202.53 202.5 202.5 202.5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.32% 0.28% 0.26% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Other Intangible Assets 428.68 457.8 545.9 525.4 6.78% 19.26% -3.76% 0.71% 0.76% 0.68% 100.00% 119.26% 96.24%
Intangible assets under development 45.69 8.7 10.2 4.9 -80.89% 17.30% -52.64% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 100.00% 117.30% 47.36%
Right of Use Asset 0 0.0 0.0 967.2 - - - 0.00% 0.00% 1.25% 100.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Financial Assets 6803.24 13240.9 14089.5 11335.9 94.63% 6.41% -19.54% 20.60% 19.62% 14.65% 100.00% 106.41% 80.46%
Deferred Tax Assets (Net) 44.95 48.0 59.4 56.3 6.74% 23.74% -5.19% 0.07% 0.08% 0.07% 100.00% 123.74% 94.81%
Income Tax Assets (Net) 0 61.6 28.5 38.4 - -53.65% 34.67% 0.10% 0.04% 0.05% 100.00% 46.35% 134.67%
Other non-current assets 3202.61 2512.6 2363.1 1461.2 -21.55% -5.95% -38.17% 3.91% 3.29% 1.89% 100.00% 94.05% 61.83%
Total Non Current Assets 29674.17 37895.2 40051.1 37861.7 27.70% 5.69% -5.47% 58.95% 55.78% 48.94% 100.00% 105.69% 94.53%
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents 333.07 153.1 317.8 650.4 -54.04% 107.62% 104.63% 0.24% 0.44% 0.84% 100.00% 207.62% 204.63%
Bank Balances 2634.33 2746.5 3834.2 6627.0 4.26% 39.60% 72.84% 4.27% 5.34% 8.57% 100.00% 139.60% 172.84%
Inventories 8671.1 7495.1 7859.6 8879.3 -13.56% 4.86% 12.97% 11.66% 10.95% 11.48% 100.00% 104.86% 112.97%
Biological Assets 70.05 89.4 84.4 86.2 27.68% -5.62% 2.12% 0.14% 0.12% 0.11% 100.00% 94.38% 102.12%
Financial Assets 11429.19 11927.8 14853.9 19773.2 4.36% 24.53% 33.12% 18.55% 20.69% 25.56% 100.00% 124.53% 133.12%
Trade Receivables 2474.29 2682.3 4035.3 2562.5 8.41% 50.44% -36.50% 4.17% 5.62% 3.31% 100.00% 150.44% 63.50%
Other Current Assets 657.07 1299.5 762.1 926.8 97.76% -41.36% 21.62% 2.02% 1.06% 1.20% 100.00% 58.64% 121.62%
Total Current Assets 26269.1 26393.6 31747.3 39505.4 0.47% 20.28% 24.44% 41.05% 44.22% 51.06% 100.00% 120.28% 124.44%
Total Assets 55,943 64288.9 71798.4 77367.0 14.92% 11.68% 7.76% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 111.68% 107.76%
Check - - - -
Income Statement Assumptions
Selected Case :
Expenses
COGS (14,864.02) (15,855.48) (17,420.33) (17,345.47) -39.27%
5% Best Case -29.27%
Base Case -33.48% -35.30% -34.03% -34.27%
-5% Worst Case -39.27%
Liabilities
Non-Current Liabilities
Financial Liabilities 59.61 79.29 81.56 337.77 0.00%
Provisions 158.42 149.63 161.95 175.37 0.00%
Deffered Tax Liabilities (Net) 1878.77 1923.02 2052.06 1627.2 0.00%
Other Non- Current Liabilities 17.79 42.19 6.51 16.2 0.05%
% of Revenue 0.10% 0.01% 0.03%
Current Liabilities
Financial Liabilities 922.36 1011.22 1189.02 1460.17 0.00%
Trade Payables 2659.33 3496.18 3509.58 3629.83 73.12
Other Current Liabilities 3327.46 4610.39 4838.32 4072.72 9.18%
% of Revenue 9.73% 9.80% 7.99%
Provisions 61.16 63.8 51.38 148.18 0.00%
Current Tax Liabilities (Net) 150.7 68.56 423.69 248.87 0.00%
Assets
Non-Current Assets
Property,Plant and Equipment 15262.27 15863.68 18625.74 19632.92 38.26%
% of Revenue 36.51% 38.52% 39.74%
Capital WIP 3684.2 5499.6 4126.18 3251.61 9.26%
% of Revenue 12.66% 8.53% 6.58%
Investment Property 0 0 0 385.36 0.00%
Goodwill on Consolidation 202.53 202.53 202.53 202.53 0.00%
Other Intangible Assets 428.68 457.75 545.92 525.37 0.00%
Intangible assets under development 45.69 8.73 10.24 4.85 0.00%
Right of Use Asset 0 0 0 967.16 0.00%
Financial Assets 6803.24 13240.86 14089.5 11335.94 0.00%
Deferred Tax Assets (Net) 44.95 47.98 59.37 56.29 0.00%
Income Tax Assets (Net) 0 61.56 28.53 38.42 0.00%
Other non-current assets 3202.61 2512.55 2363.13 1461.24 4.54%
% of Revenue 5.78% 4.89% 2.96%
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents 333.07 153.07 317.81 650.35
Bank Balances 2634.33 2746.53 3834.22 6626.99 0.00%
Inventories 8671.1 7495.09 7859.56 8879.33 174.35
Biological Assets 70.05 89.44 84.41 86.2 0.00%
Financial Assets 11429.19 11927.75 14853.93 19773.2 0.00%
Trade Receivables 2474.29 2682.29 4035.28 2562.48 24.01
Other Current Assets 657.07 1299.45 762.06 926.8 2.15%
% of Revenue 2.99% 1.58% 1.88%
Check - - - -
Working Capital
- - - - Stays Nil
tions
Forecast Period
FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 FY 2023-24 FY 2024-25
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
3488.38 3558.14 3629.31 3701.89
9947.01 10145.95 10348.87 10555.85
4171.66 4255.09 4340.20 4427.00
53027.63 54088.18 55169.94 56273.34
-20823.83 -21240.30 -21665.11 -22098.41
sation
Written Down Method 2
Written Down Method 15 %
Forecast Period
FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 FY 2023-24 FY 2024-25
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
53027.63 54088.18 55169.94 56273.34
Forecast Period
FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 FY 2023-24 FY 2024-25
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Forecast Period
FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 FY 2023-24 FY 2024-25
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
-3396.11
-3383.47
-3382.67
-3392.12
Selected Case :
Historial Period Fo
( ₹ in Crores) FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 FY 2020-21
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast
Expenses
COGS (14,864.02) (15,855.48) (17,420.33) (17,345.47) (20,415.52)
Employee Benefit Expenses (3,631.73) (3,760.90) (4,177.88) (4,295.79) (7,264.89)
Other Expenses (7,686.81) (7,349.60) (8,348.11) (8,502.63) (9,933.47)
Total Operating Expenses (26,182.56) (26,965.98) (29,946.32) (30,143.89) (37,613.88)
Historial Period Fo
( ₹ in Crores) FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 FY 2020-21
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast
Liabilities
Non-Current Liabilities
Financial Liabilities 59.61 79.29 81.56 337.77 337.77
Provisions 158.42 149.63 161.95 175.37 175.37
Deffered Tax Liabilities (Net) 1878.77 1923.02 2052.06 1627.2 1627.20
Other Non- Current Liabilities 17.79 42.19 6.51 16.20 16.21
Total Non-Current Liabilities 2114.59 2194.13 2302.08 2156.54 2156.55
Current Liabilities
Financial Liabilities 922.36 1011.22 1189.02 1460.17 1460.17
Trade Payables 2659.33 3496.18 3509.58 3629.83 4089.86
Other Current Liabilities 3327.46 4610.39 4838.32 4072.72 4446.45
Provisions 61.16 63.8 51.38 148.18 148.18
Current Tax Liabilities (Net) 150.7 68.56 423.69 248.87 248.87
Total Current Liabilities 7121.01 9250.15 10011.99 9559.77 10393.53
Assets
Non-Current Assets
Property,Plant and Equipment 15262.27 15863.68 18625.74 19632.92 19393.76
Capital WIP 3684.2 5499.6 4126.18 3251.61 3552.63
Investment Property - - - 385.36 385.36
Goodwill on Consolidation 202.53 202.53 202.53 202.53 202.53
Other Intangible Assets 428.68 457.75 545.92 525.37 525.37
Intangible assets under development 45.69 8.73 10.24 4.85 4.85
Right of Use Asset - - - 967.16 967.16
Financial Assets 6803.24 13240.86 14089.5 11335.94 11335.94
Deferred Tax Assets (Net) 44.95 47.98 59.37 56.29 56.29
Income Tax Assets (Net) - 61.56 28.53 38.42 38.42
Other non-current assets 3202.61 2512.55 2363.13 1461.24 1527.62
Total Non Current Assets 29674.17 37895.24 40051.14 37861.69 37989.93
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents 333.07 153.07 317.81 650.35 3937.69
Bank Balances 2634.33 2746.53 3834.22 6626.99 6626.99
Inventories 8671.1 7495.09 7859.56 8879.33 9751.97
Biological Assets 70.05 89.44 84.41 86.2 86.20
Financial Assets 11429.19 11927.75 14853.93 19773.2 19,773.20
Trade Receivables 2474.29 2682.29 4035.28 2562.48 3,419.98
Other Current Assets 657.07 1299.45 762.06 926.8 946.70
Total Current Assets 26269.1 26393.62 31747.27 39505.35 44,542.73
Check - - - - -
Historial Period Fo
FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 FY 2020-21
( ₹ in Crores) Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast
Capex -3183.27
Capital WIP -301.02
Other non-current assets -66.38
Cash flow from Investing Activites -3550.67
Historial Period Fo
( ₹ in Crores) FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 FY 2020-21
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast
EBIT 15,174.0
Tax (5,618.0)
NOPAT 9,556.0
Depreciation & Amortisation 3,422.4
Gross Cash Flow 12,978.4
-
Inventories (872.6)
Trade Receivables (857.5)
Other Current Assets (19.9)
Trade Payables 460.0
Other Current Liabilities 373.7
Investments in Working Capital (916.3)
-
Capex (3,183.3)
Other assets (66.4)
Other liabilties 0.0
-
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 8,812.5
-
Selected Case : Worst Case 3 : Worst Case
Forecast Period
FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 FY 2023-24 FY 2024-25 Assumptions
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
- - - -
Forecast Period
FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 FY 2023-24 FY 2024-25
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Forecast Period
FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 FY 2023-24 FY 2024-25
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
WACC 7.11%
Perpetuity Growth 2.00%
Historial Period
( ₹ in Crores) FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20
Actual Actual Actual Actual
Unilevered Free Cash Flow
Discount Factor
Present Value of UFCF and CV
WACC
6.00% 7.00% 7.11% 8.00% 9.00%
CAPM
Daily Return
Discount Rate Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Value (2024) Cash Less Debt
7% 2% $215,474 $95,000
FY 2024-25
₹ 10,790.61
Historial Period For
FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 FY 2020-21
Ratios Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast
Forecast Period
FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23 FY 2023-24 FY 2024-25
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast