Chapter 6

Confidence Intervals
Section 6-1 – Confidence Intervals for the Mean (Large Samples)

VOCABULARY:
Point Estimate – A value for a parameter.
The most point estimate of the population parameter is the sample .
Interval Estimate - An interval, or of , used to estimate a population .
Level of Confidence - Denoted as , it is the that the interval estimate the
.
Margin of Error - Sometimes also called the error of estimate, or error . It is
denoted as , and is the possible between the
estimate and the value of the it is estimating.
c-confidence interval - Is found by and from the sample .
The that the confidence interval contains is .
FORMULAS:
σ
Margin of Error = 𝑬 = 𝒛 𝒄 𝝈𝒙 = 𝒛 𝒄
√𝒏
To use the formula, it is assumed that the standard deviation is known.
This is the case, but when 𝑛 ≥ , the standard deviation
can be used in place of .
s
The formula effectively becomes 𝑬 = 𝒛𝒄
√𝒏
1+𝑐 1
𝒛𝒄 = of 2
, or 2 (1 + 𝑐) (explained why on bottom of page 311).

The three most commonly used confidence levels are %, %, and %.

The corresponding 𝑧𝑐 values are:
90% -- 95% -- 99% --
It would help to memorize these. You will be using them a lot.
To find the confidence interval on the calculator:
1) Enter the 50 data points into L1 on your calculator (STAT Edit).
2) STAT to find the sample standard deviation (we can use this because we have 50 data points; 𝑛 ≥ 30).
s= (don’t need mean or n; calculator handles those for us).
3) STAT TESTS ( -Interval)
4) Select , since you have the entered into the calculator.
5) Enter as the standard deviation, and as the C-Level.
6) Select Calculate to get the interval.
The calculator gives you the interval of to .
Notice that the calculator also tells us that the mean of the data we entered is , that the standard deviation of the
data is and that n is .
Make sure that the mean ( ) is in the EXACT middle of the interval.
To check to be sure that the mean is in the exact middle of the interval, ADD the two interval endpoints and divide by 2.
10.575 + 14.225 = ;
24.8 / 2 = .
Because it checked, we can be % sure that the actual population mean is between and .
If we need to know what E is, simply find the between the interval and divide by 2. (
the end points).
(14.225 – 10.575) / 2 = .
We could also simply find the distance between the sample mean and the endpoint(s) of the interval to find E.
14.225 – 12.4 = and 12.4 – 10.575 =
Either way, E =
Look at Example 5 on page 315.
n = 20, 𝑥̅ = 22.9, σ = 1.5, and c = 90%
NOTICE – Even though n < 30, we were given , so we can still run the -Test (Stat - Tests - )
STAT TESTS , select (since you are going to provide the stats instead of the actual data points).
Enter 1.5, 22.9, 20, and .9 and then calculate.
<𝜇<
Again, check to be sure that the mean (22.9) is the exact center of the interval that you got.
( + )/2= .
.
We can be 90% certain that the actual population mean is somewhere between and .
Also, to find E, and divide by 2.
( – )/2=
Your E (error) is .
CALCULATING MINIMUM SAMPLE SIZE
How do you know how many experiments or trials are needed in order to achieve the desired level of confidence for a
given margin of error?
σ
𝑛 = 𝒛𝒄 ( )2.
𝐸
If you don’t know what σ is, you can use s, as long as 𝑛 ≥ 30.
Example 6 on page 316-
c = 95%, 𝜎 ≈ 𝑠 ≈ 5.01 (from Example 1), E = 1 (given).
𝑧𝑐 is found by going to 2nd VARS 3 and entering (1+.95)/2 for the area.
Better yet, we could have the 𝑧𝑐 for 95% memorized.
𝑧𝑐 =
𝒛𝒄 σ 2 1.96(5.01) 2 9.8196 2
𝑛=( 𝐸
) =( 1
) =( 1
) = 9.81962 = .
If you want to be 95% certain that the true population mean lies within the interval created with an E of 1, you need AT
LEAST magazine advertisements in your sample.
We go UP, since advertisements are not quite enough.
REMEMBER!! Sample size is a NUMBER!!
You can’t do part of an experiment; you either get a data point or you don’t.
Section 6-2 – Confidence Intervals for the Mean (Small Samples)
The t-distribution:
What do we do if we don’t know the population standard deviation, and can’t find a sample size of 30 or more?
If the random variable is normally distributed (or approximately normally distributed), you can use a t-distribution.

𝑥̅ −𝜇
t-distribution formula: 𝑡= 𝑠
√𝑛

Critical values of t are denoted as t c , just as critical z values are called zc .

2nd VARS 4 (invT) gives us the t c .
 1+c 1
We still use 2
, or 2 (1 + c) for the area.
d.f. means degrees of freedom and is equal to n − 1.
THERE IS A FLOW-CHART ON PAGE 329 IN YOUR BOOK OUTLINING HOW TO KNOW WHEN TO USE WHICH TEST!
It would be a good idea to study it and be able to determine which test to use when.
This chart is included in the video, but to save paper, it's not included here in the notes.
Properties of the t-distribution (Page 325)
1) The t-distribution is and about the .
2) of are equal to n-1.
3) The total area under the curve is , or .
4) The , , and of the t-distribution are equal to .
5) As the degrees of freedom , the t-distribution approaches the distribution.
After d.f., the t-distribution is very close to the standard normal z-distribution.
Close enough, in fact, that we use the standard normal distribution for d.f. ≥ 30.
We just did that in Section 6-1.
The TI-84 can also do a t-distribution interval for you!!
In the interest of time, we are not going to cover doing these by hand.
STAT TESTS ( -Interval)
Same as with the z-interval, if you have the data points, select data. If you have the statistics, select stats.
Enter the appropriate numbers and select Calculate.
WARNING!!
The calculator asks for the numbers in a different order for Test 8 than it does for Test 7!!
You must pay attention to what the calculator is asking you for when entering the values!
EXAMPLE 1 (Page 326)
Find the critical value 𝑡𝑐 for a 95% confidence level when the sample size is 15.
To do this, go to 2nd VARS ( ) instead of invNorm.
The area is (1 + .95)/2 (this is the same formula we used to find the area for 𝑧𝑐 in Section 6-1).
If n = 15, then the degrees of freedom are (n – 1) =
2nd VARS 4, (1+.95)/2, 14, Enter gives us a 𝑡𝑐 of .
𝑡𝑐 =
EXAMPLE 2 (Page 327)
You randomly select 16 coffee shops and measure the temperature of coffee sold at each. The sample mean temperature
is 162.00 F with a sample standard deviation of 10.00 F. Find the 95% confidence interval for the mean temperature.
Assume the temperatures are approximately normally distributed.
We MUST use the for this; the sample size is than and we don’t know what
is, but we do know that the distribution is .
STAT TESTS , select Stats, and enter the values for 𝑥̅ , s, n, and c and calculate.
0 0
The 95% confidence interval is from F to F.
To check that your answer makes sense, make certain that the mean of your sample (162) fits in the middle of
your interval.
It does, so we can be comfortable that we did it correctly.
SO, we are 95% confident that the actual population mean of coffee temperature in ALL coffee shops is between
0 0
F and F.
EXAMPLE 3 (Page 328)
You randomly select 20 mortgage institutions and determine the current mortgage interest rate at each. The sample mean
rate is 6.22%, with a sample standard deviation of 0.42%. Find the 99% confidence interval for the population mean
mortgage interest rate. Assume the interest rates are approximately normally distributed.
We MUST use the for this; the sample size is than and we don’t know what
is, but we do know that the distribution is .
STAT TESTS , select Stats, and enter the values for 𝑥̅ , s, n, and c and calculate.
The 99% confidence interval is from % to %.
Again, check to be sure that the mean of the sample (6.22) fits in the middle of the interval you just got.
It is, so we are good.
SO, we are % confident that the actual population mean mortgage interest rate for ALL mortgage institutions is
between % and %.
Now, find the 90% and 95% confidence intervals for the population mean mortgage interest rate.
What happens to the widths of the intervals as the confidence levels change?
90% interval is to 95% interval is to 99% interval is to
The more we need to be, the the interval must become.
Put another way, the c is, the the interval will be.
EXAMPLE 4 (Page 329)
You randomly select 25 newly constructed houses. The sample mean construction cost is $181,000 and the population
standard deviation is $28,000. Assuming construction costs are normally distributed, should you use the normal
distribution, the t-distribution, or neither to construct a 95% confidence interval for the population mean construction
costs? Explain your reasoning.
Although n is than , we can still use the distribution because we know what is.

You randomly select 18 adult male athletes and measure the resting heart rate of each. The sample mean heart rate is 64
beats per minute with a sample standard deviation of 2.5 beats per minute. Assuming the heart rates are normally
distributed, should you use the normal distribution, the t-distribution, or neither to construct a 90% confidence interval for
the mean heart rate? Explain your reasoning.
Because , the distribution is normal, and we do not know what is, we should use the -distribution
on this one.
Section 6-3 – Confidence Intervals for Population Proportions
Sometimes we are dealing with probabilities of success in a single trial (Section 4-2).
This is called a (also lovingly referred to as BINOMIALS!!)
In this section, you will learn how to a population proportion using a confidence interval.
As with confidence intervals for µ, you will start with a .
The point estimate for p, the population proportion of successes, is given by the proportion of successes in a sample and is
𝑥
denoted by 𝑝̂ = 𝑛, where x is the number of in the sample and n is the number in the .
The point estimate for the proportion of is 𝑞̂ = 1 − 𝑝̂ .
The symbols 𝑝̂ and 𝑞̂ are read as “p hat” and “q hat”
𝑝̂𝑞̂
A c-confidence interval for the population proportion p is 𝑝̂ − 𝐸 < 𝑝 < 𝑝̂ + 𝐸, where 𝐸 = 𝑧𝑐 √ 𝑛 .
The probability that the confidence interval contains p is c.
In Section5-5, you learned that a binomial distribution can be approximated by the normal distribution if np ≥ 5, and nq ≥ 5.
When n𝑝̂ ≥ 5 and n𝑞̂ ≥ 5, the sampling distribution is approximately normal.
Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion.
1) Identify the sample statistics n and x.
2) Find the point estimate 𝑝̂ .
3) Verify that the sampling distribution of 𝑝̂ can be approximated by the normal distribution.
4) As with the other intervals we’ve discussed, the calculator will also create a proportion interval for you.
STAT - TESTS – A (1-PropZInt)
Enter x, n, and the confidence level to get the interval.
Finding a Minimum Sample Size to Estimate p.
Given a c-confidence level and a margin of error E, the minimum sample size n needed to estimate p is:
𝑧
𝑛 = 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂( 𝐸𝑐 )2 .
This formula assumes that you have a preliminary estimate for 𝑝̂ and 𝑞̂.
If not, use 0.5 for both.
EXAMPLE 1 (Page 334)
In a survey of 1219 U.S. adults, 354 said that their favorite sport to watch is football. Find a point estimate for the
population proportion of U.S. adults who say their favorite sport to watch is football.
𝑥
If n = and x = , then 𝑝̂ = = , or %.
𝑛
In a survey of 1006 adults from the U.S., 181 said that Abraham Lincoln was the greatest president. Find a point estimate
for the population proportion of adults who say that Abraham Lincoln was the greatest president.
𝑥
If n = and x = , then 𝑝̂ = = , or %.
𝑛
EXAMPLE 2 (Page336)
Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of adults in the United States who say that their favorite sport to
watch is football.
First, check to be certain that n𝑝̂ ≥ and n𝑞̂ ≥ .
( )( )= ;( )( )= .
both of which are safely more than .
To do this on the calculator, STAT – TESTS – (1–PropZInterval )
Enter for x, for n, and for C-Level
You MUST enter a for x!!
If you don’t, you will get an error message.
The interval is from to
It also tells you that 𝑝̂ =
If this is not the right value for 𝑝̂ , you put the numbers into the calculator incorrectly.
EXAMPLE 3 (Page 337)
According to a survey of 900 U.S. adults, 63% said that teenagers are the most dangerous drivers, 33% said that people
over 75 are the most dangerous drivers, and 4% said that they had no opinion on the matter.
Construct a 99% confidence interval for the proportion of adults who think that teenagers are the most dangerous drivers.
To find x, you need to multiply the ( ) by the ( ) to get .
n is given to us, at .
𝑝̂ is also given to us, at .
This makes 𝑞̂ = 1 - , or .
On the calculator, STAT-TESTS-
Enter ( * ) for x
Enter for n
 Enter for C-Level
You get <p< .
Notice that you also get 𝑝̂ = .63 (this matches our question!)
We can be 99% confident that the actual population proportion of US adults who feel that teenagers are the most dangerous
drivers is between and .
EXAMPLE 4 (Page 338)
You are running a political campaign and wish to estimate, with 95% confidence, the proportion of registered voters who will
vote for your candidate. Your estimate must be accurate within 3% of the true population. Find the minimum sample size
needed if (1) no preliminary estimate is available and (2) a preliminary estimate gives 𝑝̂ = 0.31. Compare your results.
𝑧
𝑛 = 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂( 𝐸𝑐 )2 .
Remember to use .5 for both 𝑝̂ and 𝑞̂ when you have no preliminary data.
1.96
1) 𝑛 = (. 5)(.5)(0.03)2 ≈ .
1.96
2) 𝑛 = (. 31)(.69)(0.03)2 ≈ .
You need a sample size if you don’t have any data.
AGAIN, remember that sample sizes MUST be NUMBERS!!
Section 6-4 – Confidence Intervals for Variance and Standard Deviation
In manufacturing, it is necessary to control the amount that a process varies. For instance, an automobile part manufacturer
must produce thousands of parts to be used in the manufacturing process. It is important that the parts vary little or not at all.
How can you measure, and thus control, the amount of variation in the parts? You can start with a point estimate.
The point estimate for is and the point estimate for is .
is the most unbiased estimate for .
You can use a distribution to construct confidence intervals for the and
deviation.
There are critical values for each level of confidence.
The value 𝑋𝑅2 represents the critical value and 𝑋𝐿2 represents the critical value.
1−𝑐 1+𝑐
Area to the right of 𝑋𝑅2 = 2
and the area to the right of 𝑋𝐿2 = 2
Table 6 in Appendix B lists critical values of 𝑋 2 for various degrees of freedom and areas.
(I posted a copy of this in Canvas)
Each area in the table represents the region under the chi-square curve to the of the critical value.
2
Confidence Intervals for 𝜎 and 𝜎.
You can use the critical values 𝑋𝑅2 and 𝑋𝐿2 to construct confidence intervals for a population variance and standard deviation.
The formula for the confidence interval for a population variance 𝜎 2 is:
(𝑛−1)𝑠2 (𝑛−1)𝑠2
< 𝜎2 < .
𝑋𝑅2 𝑋𝐿2

Remember that the population standard deviation 𝜎 is simply the of the variance.
(𝑛−1)𝑠2 (𝑛−1)𝑠2
√ 𝑋𝑅2
<𝜎<√ 𝑋𝐿2

You MUST memorize these formulas!

There is no magic test or distribution button on the calculator to do this for you.
Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Variance and Standard Deviation.
1) Verify that the population has a distribution.
2) Identify the sample statistic and the of .
∑(𝑥−𝑥̅ )2
3) Find the point estimate 𝑠 2 . 𝑠 2 = 𝑛−1
.( is usually given to you)
 4) Find the critical values 𝑋𝑅2 and 𝑋𝐿2 that correspond to the given level of confidence c.
Use Table 6 in Appendix B or the chart I posted in Canvas.
5) Find the left and right endpoints and form the confidence interval for the population .
6) Find the confidence interval for the population standard deviation by taking the of each
endpoint.
EXAMPLE 1 (Page 345)
Find the critical values 𝑋𝑅2 and 𝑋𝐿2 for a 90% confidence interval when the sample size is 20.
Because n = 20, the degrees of freedom = .
1−𝑐 1−.9
𝑋𝑅2 = 2
= 2
=
1+𝑐 1+.9
𝑋𝐿2 = = =
2 2
Look in Table 6 in Appendix B (or on the hand-out)
Find the row for the d.f. = and the columns for and .
𝑋𝐿2 = and 𝑋𝑅2 =
Now find the critical values 𝑋𝑅2 and 𝑋𝐿2 for a 95% confidence interval when the sample size is 25.
1−𝑐 1−.95
𝑋𝑅2 = 2
= 2
=
1+𝑐 1+.95
𝑋𝐿2 = = =
2 2
Find the row for the d.f. = and the columns for and .
𝑋𝐿2 = and 𝑋𝑅2 =
Helpful Hints for Calculator:
1) Use “Alpha y=“ to access fraction function.
2) Put (n – 1)(s2) in the numerator, and your 𝑋𝑅2 value in the denominator.
This gives you the left end of the interval for the variance.
3) Press 2nd x2 and select the previous answer and hit enter to take the square root of the variance.
This gives you the left end of the interval for the standard deviation.
4) Up arrow to select the fraction and press enter to edit it.
Use the arrow key to put your cursor in the denominator, press Clear and enter the 𝑋𝐿2 value.
This gives you the right end of the interval for the variance.
5) Repeat step 3 to find the right end of the interval for the standard deviation.
6) Now that you have the exact answers, round to the appropriate number of decimals.
EXAMPLE 2 (Page 347)
You randomly select and weigh 30 samples of an allergy medicine. The sample standard deviation is 1.2 milligrams.
Assuming the weights are normally distributed, construct 99% confidence intervals for the population variance and
standard deviation.
1−𝑐 1−.99
𝑋𝑅2 = 2
= 2
=
1+𝑐 1+.99
𝑋𝐿2 = 2
= 2
=
Find the row for the d.f. = and the columns for and .
𝑋𝐿2 = and 𝑋𝑅2 =
(𝑛−1)𝑠2 (𝑛−1)𝑠2
𝑋𝑅2
< 𝜎2 < 𝑋𝐿2
, < 𝜎2 < ,
< 𝜎2 < ; <𝜎<
We are confident that the actual population variance of weights of allergy medicines is between and ,
and that the actual population standard deviation of weights of allergy medicines is between and .
Find the 90% and 95% confidence intervals for the population variance and standard deviation of the medicine weights.
1−.𝑐 1−.90 1+𝑐 1+.90
d.f. = 29. 𝑋𝑅2 = 2
= 2
= 𝑋𝐿2 = 2
= 2
= 𝑋𝐿2 = and 𝑋𝑅2 =
(𝑛−1)𝑠2 (𝑛−1)𝑠2
𝑋𝑅2
< 𝜎 2 < 𝑋2 , < 𝜎2 < ,
𝐿

< 𝜎2 < ; <𝜎<

Your 90% intervals should be:
< 𝜎2 < for the variance;
<𝜎< for the standard deviation

1−.𝑐 1−.95 1+𝑐 1+.95

d.f. = 29. 𝑋𝑅2 = 2
= 2
= 𝑋𝐿2 = 2
= 2
= 𝑋𝐿2 = and 𝑋𝑅2 =
(𝑛−1)𝑠2 (𝑛−1)𝑠2
𝑋𝑅2
< 𝜎 2 < 𝑋2 , < 𝜎2 < ,
𝐿

< 𝜎2 < ; <𝜎<

Your 95% intervals should be:
< 𝜎2 < for the variance;
<𝜎< for the standard deviation

Your 90% intervals should be:

< 𝜎2 < for the variance;
<𝜎< for the standard deviation
Your 95% intervals should be:
< 𝜎2 < for the variance;
<𝜎< for the standard deviation
Your 99% intervals should be:
< 𝜎2 < for the variance;
<𝜎< for the standard deviation
Again, notice that as your confidence level goes , the intervals get .
This remains true no matter which you are building an interval for.