Chapter 5: Introduction To Risk, Return, and The Historical Record
Chapter 5: Introduction To Risk, Return, and The Historical Record
Chapter 5: Introduction To Risk, Return, and The Historical Record
PROBLEM SETS
1. The Fisher equation predicts that the nominal rate will equal the equilibrium
real rate plus the expected inflation rate. Hence, if the inflation rate increases
from 3% to 5% while there is no change in the real rate, then the nominal rate
will increase by 2%. On the other hand, it is possible that an increase in the
expected inflation rate would be accompanied by a change in the real rate of
interest. While it is conceivable that the nominal interest rate could remain
constant as the inflation rate increased, implying that the real rate decreased
as inflation increased, this is not a likely scenario.
1 rNominal 1 .45
3. 1 rReal 1.1154 rReal 11.54%
1 i 1 .30
4. For the money market fund, your holding-period return for the next year
depends on the level of 30-day interest rates each month when the fund rolls
over maturing securities. The one-year savings deposit offers a 5% holding
period return for the year. If you forecast that the rate on money market
instruments will increase significantly above the current 3% yield, then the
money market fund might result in a higher HPR than the savings deposit.
The 20-year Treasury bond offers a yield to maturity of 5% per year, which
is 100 basis points higher than the rate on the one-year savings deposit;
however, you could earn a one-year HPR much less than 4% on the bond if
long-term interest rates increase during the year. If Treasury bond yields rise
above 5%, then the price of the bond will fall, and the resulting capital loss
will wipe out some or all of the 5% return you would have earned if bond
yields had remained unchanged over the course of the year.
5-1
Copyright © 2020 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
CHAPTER 5: INTRODUCTION TO RISK, RETURN, AND
THE HISTORICAL RECORD
b. Increased household saving will shift the supply of funds curve to the
right and cause real interest rates to fall.
b. The expected return depends on the expected rate of inflation over the next
year. If the expected rate of inflation is less than 3.5% then the conventional
CD offers a higher real return than the inflation-plus CD; if the expected
rate of inflation is greater than 3.5%, then the opposite is true.
c. If you expect the rate of inflation to be 3% over the next year, then the
conventional CD offers you an expected real rate of return of 2%, which is
0.5% higher than the real rate on the inflation-protected CD. But unless you
know that inflation will be 3% with certainty, the conventional CD is also
riskier. The question of which is the better investment then depends on your
attitude towards risk versus return. You might choose to diversify and invest
part of your funds in each.
d. No. We cannot assume that the entire difference between the risk-free
nominal rate (on conventional CDs) of 5% and the real risk-free rate (on
inflation-protected CDs) of 1.5% is the expected rate of inflation. Part of the
difference is probably a risk premium associated with the uncertainty
surrounding the real rate of return on the conventional CDs. This implies
that the expected rate of inflation is less than 3.5% per year.
8. Probability distribution of price and one-year holding period return for a 30-
year U.S. Treasury bond (which will have 29 years to maturity at year-end):
Capital Coupon
Economy Probability YTM Price Gain Interest HPR
Boom 0.20 11.0% $ 74.05 $25.95 $8.00 17.95%
Normal growth 0.50 8.0 100.00 0.00 8.00 8.00
Recession 0.30 7.0 112.28 12.28 8.00 20.28
11. From Table 5.4, the average risk premium Big/Value for the period 1927-
2018 was: 11.69% per year.
Adding 11.69% to the 3% risk-free interest rate, the expected annual HPR for
the Big/Value portfolio is: 3.00% + 11.69% = 14.69%.
12.
(01/1930-6/1974)
Small Big
Low 2 High Low 2 High
Average 0.99% 1.17% 1.48% 0.76% 0.81% 1.19%
SD 8.29% 8.38% 10.17% 5.70% 6.72% 8.89%
Skew 1.30 1.63 2.35 0.17 1.75 1.77
Kurtosis 9.74 13.10 17.69 7.06 17.80 14.64
(07/1974-12/2018)
Small Big
Low 2 High Low 2 High
Average 1.00% 1.35% 1.45% 0.99% 1.05% 1.13%
SD 6.69% 5.28% 5.49% 4.70% 4.35% 4.90%
Skew -0.43 -0.55 -0.47 -0.33 -0.43 -0.54
Kurtosis 2.08 3.60 4.30 1.99 2.57 2.96
5-3
Copyright © 2020 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
CHAPTER 5: INTRODUCTION TO RISK, RETURN, AND
THE HISTORICAL RECORD
14. From Table 5.3, the average real rate on T-bills has been 0.46%.
15. Real interest rates are expected to rise. The investment activity will shift
the demand for funds curve (in Figure 5.1) to the right. Therefore the
equilibrium real interest rate will increase.
16. a. Probability distribution of the HPR on the stock market and put:
STOCK PUT
State of the Ending Price Ending
Economy Probability + Dividend HPR Value HPR
Excellent 0.25 $ 131.00 31.00% $ 0.00 100%
Good 0.45 114.00 14.00 $ 0.00 100
Poor 0.25 93.25 −6.75 $ 20.25 68.75
Crash 0.05 48.00 52.00 $ 64.00 433.33
Remember that the cost of the index fund is $100 per share, and the cost
5-4
Copyright © 2020 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
CHAPTER 5: INTRODUCTION TO RISK, RETURN, AND
THE HISTORICAL RECORD
b. The cost of one share of the index fund plus a put option is $112. The
probability distribution of the HPR on the portfolio is:
Ending Price
State of the + Put +
Economy Probability Dividend HPR
Excellent 0.25 $ 131.00 17.0% = (131 112)/112
Good 0.45 114.00 1.8 = (114 112)/112
Poor 0.25 113.50 1.3 = (113.50 112)/112
Crash 0.05 112.00 0.0 = (112 112)/112
c. Buying the put option guarantees the investor a minimum HPR of 0.0%
regardless of what happens to the stock's price. Thus, it offers insurance
against a price decline.
17. The probability distribution of the dollar return on CD plus call option is:
State of the Ending Value Ending Value Combined
Economy Probability of CD of Call Value
Excellent 0.25 $ 114.00 $16.50 $130.50
Good 0.45 114.00 0.00 114.00
Poor 0.25 114.00 0.00 114.00
Crash 0.05 114.00 0.00 114.00
18.
a. Total return of the bond is (100/84.49)-1 = 0.1836. With t = 10, the annual
rate on the real bond is (1 + EAR) = = 1.69%.
d. The expected value of the excess return will grow by 120 months (12
months over a 10-year horizon). Therefore the excess return will be 120 ×
4.433% = 531.9%. The expected SD grows by the square root of time
resulting in 18.03% × = 197.5%. The resulting Sharpe ratio is
531.9/197.5 = 2.6929. Normsdist (-2.6929) = .0035, or a .35% probability
of shortfall over a 10-year horizon.
CFA PROBLEMS
1. The expected dollar return on the investment in equities is $18,000 (0.6 × $50,000 +
0.4 × −$30,000) compared to the $5,000 expected return for T-bills. Therefore, the
expected risk premium is $13,000.
6. The probability that the economy will be neutral is 0.50, or 50%. Given a
neutral economy, the stock will experience poor performance 30% of the
time. The probability of both poor stock performance and a neutral economy
is therefore:
0.30 × 0.50 = 0.15 = 15%
5-6
Copyright © 2020 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written
consent of McGraw-Hill Education.