SPE-187180-MS

Rate-Transient Analysis Based on Power-Law Behavior for Permian Wells

W. Chu, N. Pandya, and R. W. Flumerfelt, Pioneer Natural Resources; C. Chen, Kappa Engineering

Copyright 2017, Society of Petroleum Engineers

This paper was prepared for presentation at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition held in San Antonio, Texas, USA, 9-11 October 2017.

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Abstract
In unconventional reservoirs, the application of many rate-transient analysis (RTA) techniques rely heavily
on the identification and analysis of the linear flow regime, which is characterized by a ½ slope on a log-
log plot of Δp vs. t. Through our analysis of more than 400 wells with downhole pressure gauges in the
Wolfcamp shale of the Permian basin, we observed power law behavior, but with slopes much different than
½ over long periods of time. In many cases, the duration of the straight line with a slope different from ½
lasts for years, without ever converging to ½. In some cases, the slope changes over time but rarely is the
characteristic ½ slope observed over long periods. Rate forecasts would be in error if were to assume that
the slope would converge to ½ slope at a later time.
In this work, we present examples of Permian Wolfcamp horizontal wells with measured bottomhole
pressure (BHP) to demonstrate the characteristic power-law behavior with slopes different from ½. Power-
law behaviors are typical in heterogeneous systems and are identified using the Chow pressure group (CPG).
Based on the concept of the power-law behavior, we have developed a workflow to analyze multiphase
rate-transient data with high quality measured BHP. Ultimately, the new workflow for rate-transient analysis
uses power-law characteristics to evaluate well performance and is a complementary tool to traditional
methods such as Arps decline-curve analysis. This paper outlines a power-law analysis workflow scheme
and demonstrates that the Chow group is a convenient means to identify the exponents of straight lines.
In addition, we present case studies to demonstrate the application of this technique to predict the long-
term well performance from choked-back wells, to evaluate long-term performance changes associated with
offset frac hits, and to estimate the hyperbolic decline-curve b-factor.

Introduction
Because of convenience, and also because of the speed and simplicity that it offers, rate-time analysis (RTA)
is the method of choice for evaluating most shale wells. Although the wells and the reservoirs they drain
are complex in many respects, theoretical expectations suggest that early-time responses of horizontal wells
produced through multiple fractures act as if the well is produced through a single fracture with an effective
length equal to the sum of the individual fracture lengths; see Raghavan et al. (1997). This is the norm
as long as interference effects are negligibly small even if the properties of the reservoir drained by each
fracture are different [Chen & Raghavan (2013)]. Because of the contrasts of the fracture permeability and
2 SPE-187180-MS

the formation permeability, unusually long production trends (rate or pressure) are usually characterized
by straight lines of a slope of ½ on log-log coordinates as shown in Wattenbarger et al. (1998), Bello
& Wattenbarger (2010), Duong (2011), and Clarkson & Qanbari (2015). Today, although wells drain D
systems, the ab initio approach is to work with a fractured well that drains a reservoir in the form of a
linear channel.
When evaluating wells in the Wolfcamp shale of the Permian basin, we encountered slopes much different
from½–the expected norm. This suggested to us that perhaps the reservoir possessed unusual features that
were yet to be identified. The Wolfcamp shale is a heterogeneous system and some of its salient features
may be found in Mohan et al. (2013). Non classical responses have also been reported in Thomas et al.
(2005) in contexts other than shales.
In the course of this work we found the procedure suggested by Chow (1952) to be particularly useful for
diagnostic purposes. His method involves considering the ratio Δp/(2Δp′), the Chow pressure group, where
Δp is the pressure drop at time, t, and Δp′ is the corresponding logarithmic derivative. Example applications
in the form of type curves may be found in Ozkan (1988) and some of the advantages of the method may
be found in Raghavan (1993). Invariably, as in all studies, throughout this work we employ the Winestock
& Colpitts (1965) rate-normalization procedure as well as the time-transformation technique of Palacio
& Blasingame (1993) to address variations in rates. One salient feature of our work is the extensive use
of measured bottomhole pressure (BHP). As a result of this expensive step, significant advantages accrue
particularly as we employ the Chow pressure group. BHP measurements often differ significantly from
estimates obtained through well-head-pressure measurements and extrapolations thereof. As noted in Scott
et al. (2015), using wellhead pressures or making low-frequency sporadic measurements and using offline
analyses to estimate BHPs provide "incomplete, if not inaccurate, snapshots of the dynamic production
environments."
We present three Permian Wolfcamp shale examples with measured bottomhole pressures to minimize
any complexities in data quality. The first case illustrates the workflow to select the appropriate diagnostic
plot, the application of the Chow pressure group for ‘flow regime identification’, and the power-law decline-
curve analysis. Case 2 shows the impact of choke management, clean-up and extended shut-ins. Case 3
shows the effect of frac hits on the flow regime identification. The second and third examples illustrate
complexities that arise as a result of unavoidable operational issues; see also Clarkson & Beierle (2010).
Our findings concerning the advantages of the application of the Chow pressure group to this complex,
heterogeneous system producing in a multi-fluid environment through a complex wellbore are empirical
and maybe incorporated in ‘data mining’ strategies for shale wells.

The Chow Pressure Group

As mentioned in the Introduction, our analysis yielded straight lines on log-log coordinates with exponents
significantly different from ½. No obvious explanation was evident except that the Wolfcamp shale is a
reservoir, where the geology is complex; the fluid environment involves the production of three phases
through a complex wellbore with the wells under gas lift. As no obvious theoretical underpinnings were
available to us, we explored various options and in the course of our investigation we found the Chow
pressure group to be an excellent correlating parameter to decide on the proper exponent if used in a
segmented fashion. We now explore and expand on our findings in the text. As already noted, the Chow
pressure group, involves plotting the ratio of Δp and 2Δp′. Thus, if the pressure drop, Δp, is of the form
(1)
where A and a are arbitrary constants, then the expression for the Chow pressure group, Δpc(t), is given as

(2)
SPE-187180-MS 3

For classical diffusion, Δpc(t) = 1. In this paper, we refer to responses given by Eq.1 as a power-law
response.

Reservoir Geology
Scott et al. (2015) presented a type log illustrating the number of Wolfcamp (WFMP) targets that might
exist at a single well location. The WFMP is about 1750 ft thick in the central part of the Midland Basin
and is sub-divided into at least four major intervals, designated the WFMP A, B, C and D (Mohan et al.
2013). WFMP is comprised of organic rich, oil mature, highly fractured, mixed lithology, mudstones that
were deposited in the medial to distal basin plain. WFMP's unconventional facies are extensive and contain
thin beds of conventional facies that result in a vast hybrid oil resource play (Deen et al. 2013). Overall, the
WFMP formation consists of significant heterogeneity vertically and laterally across the midland basin.

Field Examples
In this section, we present three field examples from Permian Wolfcamp shale horizontal wells. Real-
time measured bottom-hole pressures (BHPs) are available for each example considered in this paper. To
establish well-defined flow regimes for rate-transient analysis (RTA) in multi-phase flow, unconventional
reservoirs, measured flowing BHPs are indispensable. As already mentioned, Scott et al. (2015) compared
calculated BHPs with measured BHPs in a multi-phase-flow environment. The discrepancy between
measured and calculated values illustrated that having BHP from downhole gauge eliminates data-quality
issues. Furthermore, hourly flowback data are requisite for RTA to define early-time flow regimes. The
field examples below demonstrate that having hourly flowback data in conjunction with measured BHP
enables us to identify early-time flow regimes. Tables 1 and 2 summarize rock and fluid properties, and
well-completion parameters for each of the three cases.

Table 1—Reservoir & Fluid Properties

Reservoir Reservoir
Oil Gravity Initial GOR φ kmatrix
Case Pressure Temperature

psia °F °API scf/STB fraction nD

1 3400 162 44 1300

2 6350 167 42 1000 0.096 46

3 6000 162 42 1000

Table 2—Well-Completion Parameters

BBL Water Lb Prop Perf

Lateral Fluid Cluster
Case pumped pumped Clusters
Length, ft System Spacing, ft
per ft per ft per Stage

1 6842 Slick Water 30 1100 5 60

2 9864 Hybrid 36 1100 6 60

3 9301 Hybrid 40 1100 6 60

Case 1
Fig. 1 shows the production history of oil, gas, and water and of BHP. Production rates shown include both
allocated (lines) and test (dots) rates. Good agreements between allocated and test rates exist for oil (in
green) and gas (in red) but not for the water (in blue). It is a good practice to confirm that the testing program
is reasonable by comparing allocated and test rates. After flowing the well naturally for less than a week, we
4 SPE-187180-MS

started injecting lift-gas to unload both fracturing fluid and oil. After less than two months of production,
the flowing BHP was below the bubble point pressure.

Figure 1—Case 1 Production History.

RTA. With measured BHP, we first perform quality control on oil rates to correct outliers. Rate-transient
analysis (RTA) is performed in the standard manner; we generate rate-normalized pressure (RNP), its
derivative (RNP′), the integral of rate-normalized pressure (IRNP), its derivative (RNP′) each with respect to
material-balance time (Palacio & Blasingame, 1993) in order to account for variable oil rates. The following
equations, (3) to (7), define parameters used in RTA.

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

To identify flow regimes, Uzun et al. (2016) used the log-log diagnostic plot of rate-normalized pressure
of the total fluids versus actual time. The reason for using the actual time instead of material balance time is
that the actual time plot has characteristic features that reflect shorter events such as shut-ins. The following
analyses use material balance time to reduce the data noise. Also, we focus on analyzing oil production
instead of the total fluids to enhance the decline-curve analysis and production forecast.
Figs. 2–3 show log-log plots of rate-normalized pressure and integral of rate-normalized pressure with
their derivatives for oil versus material-balance time. The derivative of the rate-normalized pressure (Fig.
2) is typically noisy and does not allow us to recognize flow regimes with confidence. But, the use of the
integral of rate-normalized pressure and its derivative (Fig. 3) significantly reduces noise. Therefore, in
the following, we only consider log-log plots of the integral of rate-normalized pressure as a function of
material balance time.
SPE-187180-MS 5

Figure 2—Case 1 Diagnostic Plot of RNP.

Figure 3—Case 1 Diagnostic Plot of IRNP with CPG.

Flow Regime Identification by Use of Chow Pressure Group (CPG). Fig. 3 also illustrates the behavior
of Chow pressure group, Eq. 2, calculated by combining integral of rate-normalized pressures, IRNP and
its corresponding derivative, . In examining the Chow pressure group for oil in Fig. 3, we note the existence
of two horizontal lines. The first, corresponding to the value of 0.94 lasts for approximately for one week
and the other corresponding to a value of 0.80, epitomizing power-law behavior, lasts for over three years
of production. The first horizontal stabilization of the Chow pressure group at 0.94 may reflect the region
of the generated fracture volume and the second horizontal stabilization of the Chow pressure group at 0.80
likely reveals the influx from the reservoir beyond the generated fracture volume.
Power-Law Slopes. On the basis of the horizontal lines identified on the Chow pressure groups (Fig. 3),
we determined the corresponding power-law exponents. Table 3 summarizes Chow pressure groups and
power-law exponents.

Table 3—Summary of Chow Pressure Groups and Power-Law Exponents.

RNP PNR
Case Power-Law Power-Law
Slope CPG A A b factor
Exponent, a Exponent, a

1 0.94 0.42 0.53 2.35 −0.52 1.92

1
2 0.80 0.39 0.62 2.73 −0.64 1.57

2 0.81 0.19 0.62 5.10 −0.61 1.64

3 0.87 0.32 0.55 3.10 −0.55 1.81

History Matching. After determining power-law exponents for oil, we calculate rate history of oil by use
of measured flowing BHP. Power-law relationship is
6 SPE-187180-MS

(8)

x is a material-balance time and a is a power-law exponent. By use of Q /q for material-balance time and
re-arranging the above equation, we get

(9)

Power-law slopes defined in Fig. 3 indicate two segments required to calculate the oil rate history. By
use of the intercept, A, and the exponent, a, for each power-law relationship (Eq. 9), we calculated the oil
rate history shown in Fig. 4.

Figure 4—Case 1 History Match.

Power-Law Decline-Curve Analysis. Arps (1945) decline curve method is the method used most
commonly for rate analysis and forecasting in the unconventional reservoirs. It is well-known that the Arps
method is developed assuming that all measurements reflect the boundary-dominated flow period. This
condition is likely never reached in unconventional reservoirs. However, on comparing the relationship
between q and t in the Arps equation, q~1/t1/b, with the power-law equation (Eq. 8), it is clear that b~1/a,
i.e. the Arps’ decline exponent (b-factor) is the inverse of the power-law exponent, a, (Seshadri and Mattar,
2010). It is a common practice to use b-factor between 1.0 and 2.0 for unconventional reservoirs.
In this section, we develop and propose a new decline-curve analysis approach to honor multiple segments
of the power-law behavior. The pressure-normalized rate (PNR) as

(10)

and the inverse of the integral of rate-normalized pressure for oil are plotted versus material-balance time
(Eq. 5) on a log-log plot. With two segments of horizontal lines defined on the Chow pressure group (Fig.
3), Fig. 5 shows a decline-curve analysis by use of the power-law behavior. Two power-law exponents (a)
shown in Fig. 5 are −0.52 and −0.64. The inverse of the second power-law exponent of 0.64 is the b-factor
of 1.6.
SPE-187180-MS 7

Figure 5—Case 1 Power-Law Decline-Curve Analysis.

Using the power-law exponent to estimate a hyperbolic decline constant (b-factor) reduces the uncertainty
of b-factor estimation. Fig. 6 illustrates an Arps’ decline-curve analysis with the decline exponent of 1.6
from the second power-law slope.

Figure 6—Case 1 Arps’ Decline-Curve Analysis.

Pressure Buildup Analysis. Fig. 7 shows the log-log plot of a buildup after producing 6 months. This
buildup denoted as "PBU" shown in Fig. 1 is one of the three unscheduled shut-ins. Early-time responses
are governed by phase redistribution as a result of producing below the bubble-point pressure in a gas-lift
well. After 8 hours of shut-in, the Chow pressure group reflects the power-law behavior for one and an
half log cycles.
8 SPE-187180-MS

Figure 7—Case 1 PBU Response Exhibiting Power-Law Behavior.

All three pressure buildup responses exhibit the power-law behavior with Chow pressure group above
one. Rate-transient analysis also displays power-law behavior but Chow pressure group is below one. The
cause for the discrepancy between drawdown (rate-transient) analysis and pressure buildup analysis is not
clear.

Case 2 - Choke Management

Fig. 8 shows the history of oil, gas, and water production and of BHPs for two years. After putting the
well on production, the operations engineer increased choke sizes gradually to handle significant amounts
of fracturing fluids and debris. Allocated and test rates for oil and gas are consistent. The allocated water
rate showed oscillations. The well flowed naturally for six months; subsequently gas-lift was initiated to
unload fracturing fluid. After continuously gas-lifting for 10 months, the well was shut in for two months
as a consequence of operational and facility issues. Following extended shut-ins, it is common to observe a
significant increase on water-cut initially when the well returns to production. Although the well has been on
production for approximately two years, the flowing BHP was above the bubble-point pressure for almost
1.5 years.

Figure 8—Case 2 Production History.

Fig. 9 shows the log-log plot of the integral of rate-normalized pressure with its corresponding derivative
and Chow pressure group for oil. It takes over 100 days for the Chow pressure group of oil to stabilize at
0.81. On the basis of the horizontal lines identified on the Chow pressure group (Fig. 9), we calculate a
power-law exponent of 0.62.
SPE-187180-MS 9

Figure 9—Case 2 Diagnostic Plot.

The Chow pressure group in Fig. 9 shows an initial rise and a long duration of gradual decline before
reaching horizontal stabilization. Case 1 exhibits two segments in Fig. 3. However, the early-time segment
as shown in Case 1 is masked by continuously changing chokes, cleaning up and extended shut-ins. Based
on the horizontal stabilization in Fig. 9, we define the corresponding exponent of −0.61 on the power-law
decline curve as shown in Fig. 10. This exponent is equivalent to an Arps’ b-factor of 1.6. Fig. 11 illustrates
an Arps’ decline-curve analysis with the b-factor of 1.6. The Power-law slope defined by the horizontal line
on the Chow pressure group enables us to choose a reasonable b-factor for the Arps’ decline-curve analysis.

Figure 10—Case 2 Power-Law Decline-Curve Analysis.

10 SPE-187180-MS

Figure 11—Case 2 Arps’ Decline-Curve Analysis.

After 16 months of production, the well was shut in as a result of adjacent operations. Fig. 12 shows the
log-log plot of an extended buildup of 28 days. Before the shut-in, flowing BHP was above the bubble-
point-pressure. The Chow pressure group is above one for 30 hours of shut-in before stabilizing at one. This
extended buildup confirms the existence of the power-law behavior in the Permian Wolfcamp shale. When
the Chow pressure group is one, the power law exponent is 0.5. In classical diffusion, this indicates a linear
flow regime and it is a subset of the power-law behaviors.

Figure 12—Case 2 PBU Response Exhibiting Power-Law Behavior.

Case 3 - Frac Hits

Fig. 13 shows the production history along with measured BHP. After producing for 9 months, the well
received frac hits from stimulation of an offset operator's well. The energy from frac hits caused BHP (arrow
in Fig. 13) to almost return to the initial BHP when the well was re-opened. A significant increase in water
production always occurs after extended shut-ins resulting operational issues or frac hits. The well has been
on production for over two years and the flowing BHP was above the bubble point pressure for two years.
This case illustrates the impact of frac hits on rate-transient analysis in addition to issues such as choke
changes, cleaning up and shut-ins discussed in Case 2.
SPE-187180-MS 11

Figure 13—Case 3 Production History.

Fig. 14 shows the log-log plot of the integral of rate-normalized pressure with its corresponding derivative
and the Chow pressure group for oil. After 5 days of production, a horizontal line of 0.87 exists on the Chow
pressure group of (Fig. 14). Similar to Case 2, the early-time segment as shown in Fig. 3 could be masked
by changing chokes and cleaning up during flowback for this case. On the basis of the horizontal line (0.87)
on the Chow pressure group (Fig. 14), we obtain a power-law exponent of 0.55.

Figure 14—Case 3 Diagnostic Plot.

Fig. 15 shows the power-law decline-curve analysis with an exponent of −0.55 that is equivalent to an
Arps’ b-factor of 1.81. Fig. 16 shows an Arps’ decline-curve analysis with the b-factor of 1.80.
12 SPE-187180-MS

Figure 15—Case 3 Power-Law Decline-Curve Analysis.

Figure 16—Case 3 Arps’ Decline-Curve Analysis.

An extended shut-in occurred seven months after the well received frac hits. The pressure buildup enables
us to evaluate the well condition and reservoir behavior. Fig. 17 is the log-log plot of the shut-in pressure
with pressure derivative and Chow pressure group. Before shut-in, the flowing BHP was above the bubble
point pressure. A horizontal line of 1.50 exists between 1 and 156 hours for two log cycles on the Chow
pressure group, indicating the power-law behavior.

Figure 17—Case 3 PBU Response Exhibiting Power-Law Behavior.

SPE-187180-MS 13

Discussion and Concluding Remarks

The principal contribution of this paper is to provide a workflow that uses the Chow pressure group to
identify the power-law behavior of the multiple-fractured horizontal wells in the Wolfcamp shale of the
Permian basin. The exponent determined from the Chow pressure group compliments Arp's decline curve
by increasing confidence for forecasting long-term well performance. Ultimately, this workflow helps to
improve well management and development planning by providing better appraisals.
Although many issues are yet to be answered regarding changing power-law behaviors in the Wolfcamp
shale, this workflow provides engineers an easy procedure to identify the power-law behavior. This
methodology also attempts to deviate from force fitting a ½ slope to the production and BHP data.
We demonstrate that accurate downhole pressure data is essential for rate-time analysis for wells in liquid-
rich unconventional plays. Accurate flow rate measurements are also important. Operational issues such as
choke-changes and frac-hits create disturbances on the power-law behavior. However, such factors do not
affect our ability to analyze well performance when material balance time is used in the rate-time analysis.

Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of R. Raghavan and P. Leonard for their suggestions. We
thank Pioneer Natural Resources and Kappa Engineering for permissions to present this paper.

Nomenclatures
a= Power-Law exponent, dimensionless
A= Power-Law intercept, psi/(STB/D) or (STB/D)/psi
b= Arps’ decline exponent, dimensionless
pi = initial pressure, psi
pwf = flowing pressure, psi
q= flow rate, STB/D
Q= cumulative production, STB
t= time, hours or days
te = material balance time, days
Δp′ = natural logarithmic derivative of Δp, psi

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