Brennan 2002
Brennan 2002
00
# Institution of Chemical Engineers
www.catchword.com=titles=02638762.htm Trans IChemE, Vol 80, Part A, September 2002
C
apital cost assessment is an integral part of an evolving process design. The assessment
should consider installed equipment costs inclusive of plant bulk items and not solely
purchased equipment costs. The ratio of installed equipment cost to purchased
equipment cost varies much more widely for individual equipment items than for entire
plants; the ratio depends on equipment class, design, size and construction materials as well as
plant layout. The factored (IChemE) method outlined in the Institution of Chemical Engineers
‘blue booklet’ is of immediate use and provides a basis for checking detailed estimates. Some
experience in the application of the IChemE method by the authors is reviewed. Recommenda-
tions are made for broadening the inputs for estimating, and some factors are proposed for
estimating installed costs of equipment of different classes. Quantitative data are also presented
for cost breakdown in entire plants arising from project reviews by the authors.
Keywords: capital cost estimation; plant costs; equipment costs; factored estimates; Lang
factor.
579
580 BRENNAN and GOLONKA
Note: Values may not sum precisely to totals shown due to rounding.
been termed the ‘Lang’ factor1, which is typically in the range IChemE METHOD
of 3 to 5. This has become a common ‘rule of thumb’ and a
The IChemE Method proceeds in a series of steps, as
useful yardstick for chemical engineers.
follows.
The variability in Lang factor between different plants is
typically less than the variability in the factors for cost (1) the purchased cost (C) of each item of equipment in the
categories making up the total cost of those plants. Further plant is determined;
evidence for this is given in Table 1 which shows the (2) the purchased cost (C) is adjusted to an equivalent cost
breakdown in plant costs for 11 Australian projects span- based on carbon steel construction (Cc). This adjustment
ning the late 1980s to the mid 1990s with total capital values
can be made by dividing the purchased cost by a factor
between $20 million and $120 million ($Australian 2001).
These projects are predominantly from oil and gas indus- fm to account for materials of construction, such that
tries. Cost elements (or categories) are expressed as factors Cc ˆ C=fm;
of purchased equipment cost. Means and standard devia- (3) factors are applied to Cc for equipment installation
tions for each cost category have been calculated for the or erection (fb), piping (fp), instrumentation (f i), elec-
eleven plants. A measure of variability in each cost element trical (fe), civil (fc), structures and buildings (fs), and
is expressed as the ratio of standard deviation to the mean. lagging (fl);
The variability can be seen to be lowest for the overall plant (4) the factored costs are added to the purchased equipment
Lang factor, but considerably higher for many individual cost to give a ‘direct plant cost’ (DPC). Thus,
cost categories. DPC ˆ C ‡ Cc (fb ‡ fp ‡ f i ‡ fe ‡ fc ‡ fs ‡ fl);
Values of Lang factor for plants can re ect the type of (5) overhead costs (M) covering engineering and project
project, the characteristics of the process, and the predomi-
management, as well as a contingency allowance (A),
nant phase processed (solid, liquid or gas). The Lang factor
can also depend on the average cost of the equipment items are added as factors of direct plant cost to provide an
used and, hence, plant capacity. estimate of total installed plant cost (IPC) for the item.
Thus, IPC ˆ DPC (1 ‡ M ‡ A);
(6) the procedure is repeated for all equipment items in the
MODIFIED LANG FACTORS FOR SPECIFIC plant;
EQUIPMENT (7) the installed cost for the plant (or section of plant) is
then determined as the sum of installed costs for
A modi ed Lang factor can be used to represent the ratio equipment items in the plant.
of installed cost to purchased cost for a given equipment
item. Each equipment item may be represented on a piping Worked examples of the IChemE method are given in
and instrumentation diagram to provide a module for cost- references 4 and 5.
ing. Hand2 argued that ratios of installed cost to purchased Values of individual factors reproduced from the Institu-
cost for equipment items are distinct for each equipment tion of Chemical Engineers booklet4 are listed in Table 2.
class. Guthrie3 recommended a detailed breakdown of cost While the factors in Table 2 are strictly only applicable to
categories for deriving installed costs from purchased costs. UK costs, the table is useful in several respects.
In a detailed approach outlined in the Institution of
(i) The table offers guidelines for selecting appropriate
Chemical Engineers publication ‘A Guide to Capital Cost
Estimation’4, factors are applied to each individual equip- factors. For example, piping factors are higher for gas
ment item, considered separately, to estimate the installed processes than liquid processes, re ecting the lower
cost of the item. This approach is subsequently referred to in densities of gases compared to liquids, and hence,
this paper as the ‘IChemE Method’. Worked examples of the larger pipe diameters. The guidelines provided in the
IChemE method are shown in references 4 and 5. table are by no means exhaustive, and can be usefully
Table 2. Individual factors of equipment items for estimation of installed equipment cost (IChemE5).
Table 2. Continued
Table 3. Continued
supplemented as experience and data from projects (a) To estimate direct plant costs for two completed petro-
allow. For example, more precise piping estimates leum re ning projects (A and B). Very good agreement
would re ect the number of connecting pipes to a (within 3% of the actual achieved plant cost) was
vessel, or the spacing between equipment items. A obtained for Project A which was a brown elds site
list of such considerations proposed by the authors is project. However, when an estimate was made using the
provided in Table 3. IChemE method for Project B, a revamp project, the
(ii) Table 2 accounts for the in uence of equipment size or agreement was poor; reasons for the poor agreement are
cost on the value of the factor employed. For example, discussed later when considering cost of revamps.
instrumentation for a small diameter column implies a (b) To estimate factors for a range of equipment categories.
larger factor than for the same instrumentation on a Table 5 summarizes these estimates which have been
larger diameter column. This is to be expected, since derived from the factors and considerations outlined in
the instrumentation cost is largely independent of Tables 2 and 3. Table 4 shows a more detailed break-
column size. down of the various modi ed Lang factors for the
speci c case of a rotating gas compressor. (The refer-
(iii) The approach accounts for the in uence of materials
ence currency adopted for Tables 4 and 5 were 1991
of construction for an equipment item. This is incor- $Australia, selected to match a particular data set for
porated into step 2 of the IChemE method outlined equipment costs).
above. As an illustration, foundations for a carbon
steel tower would be similar to those of a stainless The estimated factors were then applied on the basis of
the average cost of equipment in particular equipment
steel tower of the same weight and external dimen-
classes for selected projects. The selected projects included:
sions. Hence, the foundations cost are a higher
proportion of equipment cost for a carbon steel ° a gas project, which showed close agreement between the
tower than for the stainless steel tower. In some cost predicted by the IChemE method and that predicted
cases, allowances should be made for the effect of by the conventional detailed estimating approach;
materials on piping and instrumentation. ° two distillation intensive projects where the cost estimated
by the IChemE method was 80% of the achieved cost, due
to differences in piping costs;
° a minerals processing project, where the IChemE method
SOME APPLICATIONS OF THE IChemE METHOD underestimated the achieved cost because of unusually
The IChemE method has been applied by the authors in high civils and structures costs for that project, associated
two ways. with the need for piling.
Note: 1. There is potentially more variability in installed cost factor due to equipment value than equipment type.
2. Engineering, project management overheads have been assumed as 25% of direct plant cost.
The last two cases emphasize the potential in uence of depends on the magnitude of purchased equipment cost,
intrinsic features of the site or process technology on the which in turn depends on the size of the equipment item, as
achieved cost. well as the equipment class. For any given process plant,
there is usually a wide distribution of equipment class and
sizes, and a corresponding wide range in the ratios of
OBSERVATIONS
installed to purchased cost for the various equipment
It is evident from Tables 2, 4 and 5, that the ratio of items. This range of ratios is characteristically much wider
installed cost to purchased cost for an equipment item than the range in overall Lang factors for different types and
designs of entire process plants where there is an averaging often incur additional component costs and high engineering
effect derived from the range of equipment classes and sizes and construction costs.
present. Many revamp projects incorporate major improvements
In turn, the Lang factor for an overall plant will depend on in process control leading to high instrumentation costs
the average purchased equipment cost, and hence, on the relative to purchased cost of new equipment. Modi cations
plant capacity. This con rms an expected higher Lang factor to plant layout may incur increased piping costs. Since plant
for pilot plants (as high as 10) than for large scale plants (as downtime is often a critical consideration, construction
low as 2.5). This implied dependence of Lang factor (L) on labour may be employed on a continuous basis. Such
average equipment cost (C· ) is consistent with claims of costs may be very high, particularly where downtime
others (for example Montfoort and Meijer6 who reported scheduling is complicated or uncertain.
L / C· ¡0.22). Since the objectives and constraints for revamps are so
Factored estimates can be usefully supplemented in diverse, cost structures are likely to be far more variable than
various components of the estimate where data permits by for new plants, and conventional factors used in factored
costing quantities of materials and labour. For example estimates become far less reliable. Detailed knowledge of
estimates for piping materials ($=m) and piping installation the existing plant and its site are important inputs to cost
(workhours=m and $=workhour) can be used as a cross estimating for revamps.
check for factored piping costs; estimates of cost per control
loop or per alarm or trip system may likewise be useful as a
cross check for instrumentation. SOURCES OF COST DATA
Conversely, factors for individual cost categories such as Guides to sources of published cost data for plant and
piping may be used to selectively check aspects of detailed equipment are provided in Gerrard 4 and Brennan5. A useful
estimates in order to identify irregularities in the estimate. publication on equipment costs with particular emphasis on
The irregularities may re ect unusual aspects of design or Australian equipment is the publication by Breuer and
cost structure, or in some cases may result from errors or Brennan7. Approaches to correlating equipment cost data
oversights. are also critically reviewed by Brennan5 and Breuer and
Care needs to be taken in applying the materials factor fm Brennan7.
to bring the purchased cost back to a carbon steel basis.
Often such factors are quoted as single values. However, the
factor may often differ for small and large items, re ecting CONCLUDING REMARKS
the differing contributions of materials and labour costs. For Chemical engineers require short-cut estimating methods
example the factor for a stainless steel vessel might be 1.2 in order to guide their process design decisions. Powerful
for a 1 tonne vessel, and 2.2 for a 50 tonne vessel of similar cost estimating packages, which may be adjunct to or
design but larger size. interface directly with process simulator packages, are
A caveat lies in the importance of having representative now available to chemical engineers. However, the factored
equipment cost data prior to factor application. A reliable approach to estimating capital costs of plants remains a
cost data base is essential, since a particular quotation may useful technique in its own right, and also provides a means
be skewed by an extreme business environment or may of checking the validity of estimates made by more detailed
result from a genuine error by an equipment supplier. There methods.
are also cases where second hand equipment is used, Chemical engineers need to appreciate the layers of
implying purchased costs well below those for new assumptions built into factored estimating approaches, and
equipment. critically review the assumptions, even where approximate
One further consideration is to allow for equipment approaches are used.
purchased as packaged items. Such items are usually deliv-
ered with instrumentation, connecting piping, and in some
cases structural members. A large proportion of packaged DISCLAIMER
items in a plant could decrease the apparent Lang factor for The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors
the plant. and not necessarily of their respective organizations. The
authors have attempted to rigorously review cost estimating
approaches. However, neither the authors, Kvaerner E and C
COST OF REVAMPS Australia, nor Monash University accept any legal liability
for the use or misuse of methods or data presented in this
A project involving the revamp of an existing plant may paper.
be expected to have a different cost structure than that for a
new plant on either a green eld or brown eld site. Due to
the imposed constraints of an existing plant and site, the
engineering design, project management and construction REFERENCES
labour costs of a revamp may be much higher as a propor- 1. Lang, H. J., 1948, Simpli ed approach to preliminary cost estimates,
tion of plant costs than for a new plant. While much existing Chemical Engineering, June: 112–113.
equipment may be re-used without modi cation, a number 2. Hand, W. E., 1958, From owsheet to cost estimate, Petroleum Re ner,
of equipment items typically do require modi cation; 37(9): 331–334.
3. Guthrie, K. M., 1969, Data and techniques for preliminary capital cost
vessels may need new internals, compressors and pumps estimating, Chemical Engineering, March 24: 114–142.
may need to be increased in speed, and so on. Such 4. Gerrard, A. M. (ed), 2000, A Guide to Capital Cost Estimating, 4th
equipment modi cations save on equipment costs, but Edition (IChemE, Rugby, UK).