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Evaluation of water availability and allocation in the Blue Nile Basin

Seleshi Bekele Awulachew1, Matthew McCartney1, Yosif Ibrahim2 and

Yilma Seleshi Shiferaw3

1
International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 5689, Addis Ababa, Ethiopi
2
UNESCO Chair in Water Resources, P.O. Box 1244, Khartoum 11111, Sudan
3
Department of Civil Engineering, Addis Ababa University, P.O. Box 150241, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
[email protected]

Abstract

The Blue Nile River is the principal tributary of the Nile River, providing about 62% of the flow
reaching Aswan Dam (48-52.5 km3/y) in Egypt. Ethiopia currently utilizes very little of the water, less
than 1 km3. In contrast, Sudan and Egypt use significant volumes for irrigation, hydropower, and
other uses. There remains considerable potential for additional exploitation, and the three countries
have plans to further develop of the water resources. In Ethiopia, major irrigation schemes with a
total area of approximately 164,000 ha are planned for completion by 2010, and 815,000 ha in longer
term. In addition, several hydropower dams, including four located on the main stem of the river, are
being contemplated. In Sudan, it is planned to develop 889,000 ha of additional irrigation by 2025.
This paper provides an overview of the basin characteristics, hydrology of the Blue Nile, and a brief
evaluation of the current and future status of water resource development. The future development in
Ethiopia for consumptive water use, limited by land potential, is an order of magnitude of 5-6 km3, net
water, about 10% of its runoff contribution. Similar analysis for Sudan shows possible use of 9 km3.
The analysis helps policymakers reach informed decisions.

Media grab

Current water use of Ethiopia in the Blue Nile Basin is less than 2%, and increasing the level to 10%
can contribute to socioeconomic development of the country without adversely affecting downstream
flows.

Introduction

The need for improved water resources management to alleviate poverty, food insecurity, and
increase socioeconomic development in Africa is immense. Recent strides in sustainable resource
management have recognized the need for a broad-based, integrated approach that coordinates the
activities of people dependent on a common resource base to achieve resource-use efficiency, equity,
and sustainability. In the Nile Basin, water from the Ethiopian Highlands, particularly from the Blue
Nile (Abay in Ethiopia), has historically benefited downstream people in Sudan and Egypt in different
ways: agriculture, livestock, industry, and electrical power (Awulachew et al., 2008). The
sustainability of such use, in terms of water quantity and quality, is heavily affected by dramatic
changes in population growth and the pressing needs of socioeconomic development. These factors
have resulted in great changes in land, water, and livestock management upstream in the Ethiopian
part of the catchment. It is widely recognized that understanding the potential and investment to
improve water management in the Abay catchment could significantly increase water availability for
various upstream and downstream users. Better water management could help to alleviate the
impacts of natural hydrological variability (i.e. droughts and floods), enhance development, and
reduce water-related conflict. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to characterize the hydrology and
its variability; (2) identify existing developments and future plans; and (3) apply a modeling tool that
helps to evaluate scenarios of development and their impacts on hydrology and water resources
availability. The information generated could contribute to decision-making on future water use and
development in the basin.

Methods

The data related to the Blue Nile Basin (BNB) are scanty and not available in a single database. We
tried to develop the basin map under Arc GIS environment and 90m resolution digital elevation model
(DEM), from which various sub-basins have been delineated. The result of this provides a useful
platform for various studies. One of the results generated is shown in Figure 1, which is useful as
source of input for this study. For the current study, in addition to the physical characteristics, hydro-
meteorological data have been compiled from a number of secondary sources. Geo-referenced
location information (e.g. of rain gauges and flow stations) has been mapped using GIS. Analysis of
these data using simple statistics, graphs, and plots related to rainfall, runoff, and evapotranspiration
provides information that can be used to enhance understanding of the spatial and temporal variation
of hydro-meteorological parameters. The actual runoff measured and derived from hydrological
models provides information on water availability at various locations. Scenarios of current and future
water use are established based on information available in documents such as master plan studies.
The water demand for various uses is quantified using simple methods of quantifying water duty per
hectare. The benefit of our approach is that it analyzes the Blue Nile as one system inventory.

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Results and discussion

Based on analysis of DEM, the BNB is characterized by highly rugged topography and considerable
variation in altitude (350 m at Khartoum to over 4250 m in the Ethiopian highlands). The 90 m DEM
based derivation of area shows that the total area of the basin is 311,437km2, of which approximately
63% is in Ethiopia and 37% is in Sudan, similar to data in Hydrosult et al. (2006). Rainfall varies
significantly with altitude and is considerably greater in the Ethiopian highlands than on the plains of
Sudan (Figure 1). Within Sudan, the average annual rainfall over much of the basin is less than 500
mm. In Ethiopia, the average annual rainfall is about 1,600 mm and at some points exceeds 2000
mm. The temporal distribution of rainfall is governed to a large extent by the movement of air masses
associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The main rains occur in the summer,
between June and September, when the ITCZ moves north, and the southwest airstream extends over
the entire Ethiopian highlands. This is also the main rainy season in Sudan. Inter-annual variability in
rainfall is considerable, and several consecutive years with below average rainfall is not uncommon.
The physiographic features of the 16 sub-basins of the BNB and other parameters (e.g. temperature,
potential evapotranspiration) are analyzed and presented in Awulachew et al. (2008), which also
provides a wider analysis related to this study. The total volume of water falling in the Abay is
approximately 320 billion cubic meters (BCM), from which about 16% is converted to runoff as Blue
water.

Figure 1. Mean annual rainfall across the Blue Nile Basin.

Throughout the BNB, flow data are generally limited because of the remoteness of many of the
catchments, and the lack of economic resources and infrastructure to build and maintain monitoring
stations. In Ethiopia, there are over 100 flow gauging stations in the basin; most of these are located
on relatively small tributaries and/or are near the headwaters of the main rivers. Very few gauging
stations are located on the main-stem of the river or on the major tributaries close to their confluence
with the BN. Summary statistics and flow estimates for each of the major tributaries, the network of
the tributaries, and schematization of water allocation are presented in Table 1 and Figure 2. As with
rainfall, there is considerable inter-annual (Figure 3) and seasonal variability in flow. Typically, 80-
85% of discharge occurs in the four months July to October (see Figure 4a).

The average annual flow of the Blue Nile at the Sudan border is 52 km3. Despite inflows from the
Dinder and Rahad, the two major tributaries in Sudan, the mean annual flow of the Blue Nile at
Khartoum is 48.2 km3 (i.e. less than at the border). The reduction in flows between the border and
Khartoum is a consequence of both water abstractions (primarily for irrigation) and high transmission
losses. It is estimated that annual transmission losses (i.e. both evaporation and percolation) between
the border and Khartoum are about 2 km3, with an additional 0.5 km3 of evaporation from the two
major reservoirs, Sennar and Roseires (Sutcliffe and Parks, 1999). The revised estimate of
evaporation is 0.91 km3. Ethiopia currently utilizes about 0.3 km3 of water of the Blue Nile for
consumptive uses. To date only two relatively minor hydraulic structures have been constructed in the
BNB of Ethiopia. These are at Chara Chara (i.e. at the outlet of Lake Tana) and Finchaa. These dams
are used mainly for hydropower generation, with a total capacity of 218 MW (i.e. 30% of the total
electricity generating capacity of Ethiopia). The total irrigation development in the BNB of Ethiopia is
estimated to be 32,000 ha. The current irrigation development in the BNB of Sudan amounts to
1,305,000 ha, mostly in the huge Geizera scheme. The total hydropower development in the BNB of
Sudan is 295 MW (i.e 25% of total electricity generating capacity of Sudan) at the Rosieres and
Sennar dams. The Roseires and Sennar reservoirs have suffered extensively from sedimentation. It is
estimated that sediment loads to both dams are approximately 140 million t/year (Hydrosult et al.,
2006), and reservoir volumes have declined significantly as a result (Awulachew et al., 2008). There is
no binding agreement that hinders Ethiopia’s development of the water, but Sudan and Egypt have a
1959 agreement that apportions the Nile flow among the two countries, with negligible amounts
generating from Sudan and zero from Egypt.

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Table 1. Summary statistics for the major sub-basins of the Blue Nile.
Sub-basin Catchmen Mean annual Mean annual Mean annual Mean annual Coefficie
t area rainfall potential runoff (mm) flow (Mm3) nt of
(km2) (mm) evapotranspiration runoff
(mm)

Ethiopia
Guder 7,011 910 1,307 312 2,187 0.34
Dabus 21,030 2276 1,112 297 6,246 0.13
Finchaa 4,089 1766 1,290 438 1,719 0.25
South Gojam 16,762 1633 1,183 299 5,012 0.18
Anger 7,901 1813 1,318 298 2,355 0.16
Beles 14,200 1655 1,274 306 4,345 0.18
Didessa 19,630 1816 1,308 289 5,673 0.16
Muger 8,188 1347 1,210 298 2,440 0.22
North Gojam 14,389 1336 1,242 305 4,389 0.23
Jemma 15,782 1105 1,059 304 4,798 0.28
Lake Tana 15,054 1313 1,136 253 3,809 0.19
Welaka 6,415 1072 1,263 323 2,072 0.30
Beshilo 13,242 982 1,140 296 3,920 0.30
Wombera 12,957 1660 N/A 299 3,874 0.18
Sudan
Dinder 14,891 N/A N/A 188 2,797 N/A
Rihad 8,269 N/A N/A 133 1,102 N/A
Source: Ethiopia data from Tadesse, T (2006). Sudan data from Sutcliffe and Parks (1999). N/A not available.

Khartoum

Hawata
1,102 Rahad

2,797 Dinder
Giwasi
Lake Tana
Sennar
Bosheilo

SUDAN Roseires
3,809
3,920
Beles Outlet Lake Tana
Border
4,345
Welaka
North Gojam 2,072

Wonbera South Gojam Jemma

ETHIOPIA 4,798

3,874 5,012 4,389

Kessie
Muger
2,440

6,246
Anger
2,355 1,719 2,187
Dabus Flow gauging station
5,673
Reservoir
Guder
Mean annual
Didessa 4,345
Finchaa discharge (Mm3)

Figure 2. Mean annual discharge figures and schematic showing the proposed configuration of the
water allocation model under use for this study.
a)

35 20
Mean Annual Flow = 16.5 km3 m = missing data
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Departure from the mean (km 3)

30
m m m m m 10
25
5
Flow (km 3)

20
0
15
-5
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-10
5
-15
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-20
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b)

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 80 25
Mean Annual Flow = 48.7 km3
70 20

Departure from the mean (km 3)

15
60
10
50
Flow (km 3)

5
40
0
30
-5
20
-10
10 -15

0 -20
1921

1925
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1921

1925
1929

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1945
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1981
1985
1989
Figure 3. Flow and departure from the mean as measured on the Blue Nile River at two locations: a)
Kessie in Ethiopia; and b) El Diem in Sudan. Locations of stations shown in Figure 1.

Annua l runoff distribution Flow duration c urve at Kes sie

18000 10000
16000 9000
Kes s ie
14000
M o n t h ly R u n o f f ( M c u .m .)

8000
Boarder
12000 7000

D is c h a r g e ( c u m e c s )
10000 6000
8000 5000
6000 4000
4000 3000
2000 2000
0 1000
0
G

V
C
B
N

R
AR

T
AY

NE
LY

PT

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
DE
FE

AP

AU

NO
OC
JA

SE
M

JU
JU
M

month % Exc eedance

a) b)

Figure 4. a) Variations of runoff of Blue Nile (notice periods of large volume of flow); b) flow duration
curve.

Under the auspices of the Nile Basin Initiative, which was established in 1999, with the exception of
Eritrea all the riparian countries of the Nile have agreed to collaborate in the development of the Nile
water resources to achieve sustainable socioeconomic development. Ethiopia and Sudan plan to
further develop the water resources of the Blue Nile. Similarly Egypt is developing new irrigation
development areas. In Ethiopia possible irrigation projects have been investigated over a number of
years (e.g. USBR, 1964; BCEOM, 1998). Currently envisaged irrigation projects will cover a total of
more than 164,000 ha, which represents 20% of the total 815,581 ha of potential irrigation estimated
in the basin (BCEOM, 1998). As it is reflected in its master plans, Ethiopia has also a long-term
interest to develop its land, mainly as supplementary irrigation. Sudan is also planning to increase the
area irrigated in the BNB. Additional new projects and extension of existing schemes are anticipated to
add an additional 889,340 ha by 2025. The water required to develop the high priority irrigation of
220,416 ha in Ethiopia is estimated to be between 2.2 km3 and 3.83 km3 (Endale, 2006), which
appears to be an overestimation. We estimated that water requirement to develop the 816,000 ha at
about 5 km3 to develop the full potential in the Blue Nile part of Ethiopia. Based on current irrigation
efficiencies in the Gezira and other schemes, the additional development in Sudan will require an
average of 9.3 km3 more water than is abstracted at present. In the BNB of Ethiopia more than 120
potential hydropower sites have been identified. Out of these, 26 were investigated in detail during
the preparation of the Abay River Basin Master Plan (BCEOM, 1998). The major hydropower projects
currently being contemplated in Ethiopia have a combined installed capacity of between 3634 MW and
7629 MW, mostly with storage reservoir. Storage reservoir is mandatory for any meaningful
development in upper Blue Nile, since the temporal variation of the flow is significant as shown in
Figure 4b, the dependable flow at 95% reliability being extremely low. There is no planned
hydropower development in the BNB of Sudan. Hydropower is a nonconsumptive use of water and has
no expected impact in the water budget. The immediate impact is the redistribution or even-out effect
of temporal variation, but with added benefits of storing spilling water from Aswan during high water
years, storage at high altitude and low evaporation sites, and more water-saving for beneficial use.

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Figure 4. Current and future potential of irrigation of Sudan (L) future potential of Ethiopia (R).

Conclusion

Pressure on water resources in the BNB is likely to increase in the near future due to high population
growth and increasing development-related water needs. In spite of the national and international
importance of the region, however, only a relatively few studies have been conducted and there is
limited understanding of the basin’s detailed climatic, hydrologic, topographic, and hydraulic
characteristics as well as earnest quantification of potential development scenarios. Our results show
that the Blue Nile, despite its significant flow volume, has large time variation of flow and almost
exclusively runoff is generated from the Ethiopian highlands. Any meaningful development of the river
requires storage infrastructure. The current irrigation development in Ethiopia is insignificant, and
future development to the full potential of the Blue Nile may lead to only 5-6 km3 of water abstraction,
which is at most 10% of its contribution to the flow. The use of the water for further development in
the Sudan may lead to an additional water withdrawal of 9.5 km3 in the Blue Nile Basin. Countries can
use such analyses to avoid conflicts, to understand the needs, to establish agreed extent of
development, and to rapidly harness the available resources for beneficial use and accelerated
socioeconomic transformation of the region.

Acknowledgments

This paper presents findings from PN19 ‘Upstream-Downstream in the Blue Nile,’ a project of the
CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food.

References

Awualchew, S.B., M. McCartney, T. Steenhuis, and A.A. Ahmed. 2008. A review of hydrology,
sediment and water resource use in the Blue Nile Basin. IWMI working paper (forthcoming).

BCEOM. 1998. Abay River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Project. Report to Ministry of
Water Resources, The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.

Endale, Y.D. 2006. Assessment of Water Demand for Irrigation Development in Abay Basin (A case of
tributary development scenario). In The Nile Development Forum (2006) Proceedings. Addis
Ababa, Ethiopia.

Hydrosult, Tecsult, DHV, Nile Consult, Comatex Nilotica, and T and A Consulting. 2006. Cooperative
Regional Assessment (CRA) for Watershed Managent. Transboundary Analysis Abay-Blue Nile
Sub-Basin. Report to Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office, Nile Basin Initiative.

Sutcliffe, J.V., and Y.P. Parks. 1999. The hydrology of the Nile. IAHS Special Publication 5,
Wallingford, Oxfordshire; IAHS.

USBR. 1964. Land and Water Resource of the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Appendix V–Power.

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