STATUS OF MAIZE CROP 2021-22,

CHHINDWARA, MADHYA PRADESH

We at BKC Aggregators are trying inculcate a new realism in market reporting; independent and fact
based. For this, we communicate directly with farmers who are actually cultivating crops for which we
prepare reports. It is done through an Android App called Fasal Salah. The highly scientific App that
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Introduction:
BKC Aggregators has been working in area of weather-focused advisories to the farmers through an app named FASAL SALAH.
Through this app, Farmers get advisories based on variety sown, date of sowing and weather forecast of their village. Farmers also send
their crop pictures as prescribed. This App uses artificial intelligence for image processing of farmers sent pictures and crop modelling
analytics, which BKC has established for calculation of yield and health of the crop well before the harvest. The service has been in
successful operations with a large number of farmers.

FASAL SALAH App, Our Crop monitoring technology is unique using bottoms up approach at field level and correlating ground
realities with real-time crop vegetation index monitored via spectral analysis of high-resolution satellite images for different fields and
crops. This enables to track positive and negative dynamics of crop development much more realistically.
This way it is more realistic way of crop yield estimation before actual harvest. Our technology has been field tested and awarded by
Govt. of India (Winner of Great Agriculture Challenge 2019).

In Kharif season 2021-22, FASAL SALAH team carried out a study of crops grown in Chhindwara district of Madhya Pradesh. Maize is
the major crop of the district. Idea was to look at the crop health by using the crop pictures sent by the farmers through FASAL SALAH
App and satellite pictures, which later helps us to determine the crop yield.

About:
The maize is cultivated throughout the year in all states of the country for various purposes including grain, fodder, green cobs, sweet
corn, baby corn, popcorn in peri-urban areas. In India, maize is the third most important food crops after rice and wheat. According to
advance estimate, its production is likely to be 22.23 M Tonnes (2012-13) mainly during Kharif season which covers 80% area. Maize in
India, contributes nearly 9 % in the national food basket.
The predominant maize growing states that contributes more than 80 % of the total maize production are Andhra Pradesh (20.9 %),
Karnataka (16.5 %), Rajasthan (9.9 %), Maharashtra (9.1 %), Bihar (8.9 %), Uttar Pradesh (6.1 %), Madhya Pradesh (5.7 %), Himachal
Pradesh (4.4 %).
 The district lies at the 24° 06' to 25° 20' N and 78° 59' to 80° 26' E covering an area of 110 km2, according to the 2011
census Chhindwara district has a population of 2.6 lakh.
 Chhindwara falls under Central Plateau and Hills Region (VIII) with an annual rainfall of 1095.1 mm with the South West
Monsoon supply.
 The net sown area is 319.9 thousand hectares and gross cropped area is 40.7 thousand hectares with cropping intensity of 127%.
 The district has a wide variety of crops grown where major Kharif crop in the region is Maize.

SOWN AREA (%)

LAND USE CHHINDWARA ('000 HA) IRRIGATED AREA (%)

Net Irrigated
863 area 6%
2% Canal
34% 33%
Gross Irrigated
404 319 area Tank

TOTAL GROSS SOWN NET SOWN AREA 33% Rainfed area 92% Open Wells
GEOGRAPHICAL AREA
AREA

MAJOR SOILS (%) MAJOR KHARIF CROPS (%) Normal RF (mm)

Deep Soil

30% 984.8
39% Medium Deep
Maize
Soils
58.1 37.6 14.6
31% Shallow Soils 100%
SW MONSOON NW WINTER SUMMER
MONSOON
Weather Outlook:
Indian Summery and Weather Forecast

 The western end of the monsoon trough at mean sea level runs to the north of its normal position while its eastern end runs
close to the normal position.

 Widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls very likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh,
Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Uttar Pradesh till 29th July, 2021 and reduction thereafter.

 Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls likely to continue over East Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh on
28th July.
 In MP, undertake sowing of soybean crop only after ensuring sufficient moisture for field emergence. Undertake transplanting
of brinjal and chilli in raised bed. To control attack of mite and jassids in chilli, spray Fosmite.

 Light to moderate rain with one or two intense spells may occur over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Gujarat, Konkan and Goa,
Chhattisgarh, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Sikkim, Mizoram, Tripura, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Konkan and Goa.

Rainfall Forecast (29 July to 04 August, 2021):

 The monsoon trough is very likely to be north of its normal position during most days of the week. Hence rainfall activity is
very likely to be confined to the northern parts of the country during this week.

 Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to heavy falls very likely over northeast & adjoining east India
during most days of the week.

 Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls also likely over Western Himalayan Region & adjoining plains
of northwest India and Uttar Pradesh during most days of the week.

 Overall, normal to above normal rainfall activity is likely over Western Himalayan Region, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh &
Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim and northeastern states.
 Rainfall in Maize Belt Forecast for next 15–days

 Major maize growing areas showing only 14 to 19 mm accumulated rainfall in last 15 days, However Amarwara and Parsia
showing near normal condition.

 As we see the previous effect in majority of the tehsils, there is a possibility of heavy rain at Parsia and Amarwara tehsils,
whereas Sausar tehsils continue showing less rainfall compared to other tehsils in the next 15 days.
Vegetation condition index (VCI):

VCI is used to identify drought situations and determine the onset, especially in areas where drought episodes are localized and ill
defined. It focuses on the impact of drought on vegetation and can provide information on the onset, duration and severity of drought
by noting vegetation changes and comparing them with historical values. VCI value is being measured in percentage ranging from 1 to
100. The range between 50% and 100% indicates above normal condition of vegetation whereas the values ranging from 50% to 35%
indicate the drought condition and below 35% indicates severe drought condition.

MODIS(NDVI)
Long Term

(NDVI)min (NDVI)max

VCI = 100 * (NDVI - NDVImin) / (NDVImax - NDVImin)

VCI

Flow Chart: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI)

 Based on Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) Chhindwara district showing near normal condition while some part of
Amarwara tehsil showing deficit condition compared with other tehsils during the first fortnight of July.
Standardized precipitation index (SPI):

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used index to characterize meteorological drought on a range of timescales. On
short timescales, the SPI is closely related to soil moisture, while at longer timescales, the SPI can be related to groundwater and reservoir
storage. The SPI can be compared across regions with markedly different climates. It quantifies observed precipitation as a standardized
departure from a selected probability distribution function that models the raw precipitation data. The raw precipitation data are
typically fitted to a gamma or a Pearson Type III distribution, and then transformed to a normal distribution. The SPI values can be
interpreted as the number of standard deviations by which the observed anomaly deviates from the long-term mean.

The SPI values for any given location and accumulation period, are classified into seven different precipitation regimes (from dry to
wet), as shown in Table. As can be seen, increasingly severe rainfall deficits (i.e., meteorological droughts) are indicated as SPI decreases
below ‒1.0, while increasingly severe excess rainfall is indicated as SPI increases above 1.0.

ANOMALY RANGE OF SPI VALUES PRECIPITATION REGIME CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY PROBABILITY OF EVENT (%) COLOR
2.0 < SPI <= MAX Extremely wet 0.977 - 1.000 2.3
Positive 1.5 < SPI <= 2.0 Very wet 0.933 - 0.977 4.4
1.0 < SPI <= 1.5 Moderately wet 0.841 - 0.933 9.2
None 1.0 < SPI <= -1.0 Normal precipitation 0.159 - 0.841 68.2
1.5 < SPI <= -1.0 Moderately dry 0.067 - 0.159 9.2
Negative -2.0 < SPI <= -1.5 Very dry 0.023 - 0.067 4.4
MIN <= SPI <= -2.0 Extremely dry 0.000 - 0.023 2.3
SPI Classification scheme
 Standarized Precepitation Index (SPI)
2.5

1.5

0.5

0
Amarwara Chhindwara Parasia Sausar
-0.5

-1

-1.5

2021 Normal

 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) shows normal condition in current year on comparison of normal years, however
Chhindwara and Sausar tehsils showing near normal condition during the month of July 2021.
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI):

Jun 2nd fortnight 2021 Jun 2nd fortnight 2020

NDVI : CHHINDWARA

0.46

0.43
0.43
0.40

0.42
0.38

0.38
0.39

0.50

0.36

0.34
0.32
0.31

0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Amarwara Chhindwara Parasia Sausar

2021 2020 Normal

 NDVI values in the current year is lower than the previous year in the 2nd half of the month June in major tehsil. While,
it is higher in all the tehsils as compared to the normal.
 Jul 1st fortnight 2021 Jul 1st fortnight 2020

NDVI : CHHINDWARA

0.61
0.58

0.61
0.59
0.54
0.53

0.56

0.80
0.51

0.45
0.43
0.41

0.38

0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Amarwara Chhindwara Parasia Sausar

2021 2020 Normal

 NDVI value remains short of the previous year in the first fortnights of July and depicts leading the compared with the
normal.
Soil moisture:

Jun 2nd fortnight 2021 Jun 2nd fortnight 2020

SOIL MOISTURE : CHHINDWARA

0.35
0.34

0.33
0.32

0.32

0.31
0.40

0.26

0.26
0.25

0.25

0.24
0.30

0.18
0.20
0.10
0.00
Amarwara Chhindwara Parasia Sausar

2021 2020 Normal

 Soil moisture value seems to have increased gradually during the second fortnight of June on compared with previous
year and normal 2021.
 Jul 1st fortnight 2021 Jul 1st fortnight 2020

SOIL MOISTURE : CHHINDWARA

0.38

0.37
0.37

0.37
0.37

0.35
0.34
0.34

0.34
0.40

0.30

0.29
0.27
0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00
Amarwara Chhindwara Parasia Sausar

2021 2020 Normal

 Slightly lower soil moisture values are witnessed in comparison to the previous year and the normal all through
Chhindwara district during the 1st fortnight of July 2021.
Farmers Feedbacks

We at BKC Aggregators run an App called FASAL SALAH that connects us with lacs of farmers on one-to-one basis. We provide to the
farmers weather linked advisories based on his soil, his variety, date of sowing using artificial intelligence Farmers also send their drop
pictures for us to run ML programs to improve advisories further.

Pradeep Raghuwanshi, a farmer at FASAL SALAH from Chaurai tehsil of Chhindwara district in Madhya Pradesh reported that maize
crop in his field has attained optimum growth and condition is quite good. He has sown in 10 acres of area and it is comparatively lower
than previous years.

Another farmer Vilas Kumar from Chhindwara reported that he has sown maize in 4 acres of land instead of 5 acres, which he used to
block for maize. This year, he shifted to moong and soybean crops in the hope of better price as compared to maize crop.

Rakesh sanodiya, a large-scale farmer from Chhindwara district has cultivated maize in 18 acres but he used to sow in 20 acres in
previous years. According to him, Vegetative growth is quite good and there is no such critical issues apart from slight yellowing. Rain
in the month of July is normal and there is no adverse effect on the crop.

Yogesh, a young farmer from Chhindwara told that he is happy with the growth of his maize crop, which he has cultivated in 8 acres. On
asked he told that in the year 2020 he cultivated maize in nearly 10 acre of land. Moisture availability is good and there is no incidence
of any pest reported till date.
Conclusion:

 On the basis of NDVI crop health condition of Chhindwara district depicts near normal condition, if compared with last year and
normal at about this time.

 NDVI portrays better crop condition in comparison to the previous year and normal during the first fortnight of July in
Chhindwara district.

 On the basis of Vegetation condition of index (VCI) and Standarized Precepitation Index (SPI) in Chhindwara district showing
normal conditionand no major drought showing in till month of July 2021 .

 If we see on actual rainfall condition so patchy rainfall occur in last 15 days, while in upcoming days district showing above or
near normal condition.

 Chhindwara district last year the moisture condition was slightly inferior but this year majority of tehsil appears to be in better
condition, in comparison to Previous year and Normal conditions dusring the second fortnight of June 2021.

 Soil moisture conditions in the current year are comparatively slightly less than that of the previous year as well as normal in all
the tehsils of Chhindwara district during the 1st fortnight of July.

 Last year the maize acreage in Chhindwara district was 352741 ha. As per farmers feedbacks from Chhindwara district, maize
area might go lower than the area of previous year.
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