Power of Doubling

World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology
International Journal of Civil, Environmental, Structural, Construction and Architectural Engineering Vol:11, No:7, 2017
Power of Doubling: Population Growth and Resource

Consumption
Sarika Bahadure
 raw materials a year. People in rich countries consume up to

Abstract—Sustainability starts with conserving resources for 10 times more natural resources than those in the poorest
future generations. Since human’s existence on this earth, he has been countries [2]. This situation creates argument like ‘are natural
consuming natural resources. The resource consumption pace in the resources exist for humans or nature should be independent of
past was very slow, but industrialization in 18th century brought a
humans’ or ‘natural resources are fulfilling needs of current
change in the human lifestyle. New inventions and discoveries
upgraded the human workforce to machines. The mass manufacture generations or can they do so for future generations as well’ or
of goods provided easy access to products. In the last few decades, ‘should we conserve resources or deplete resources for
the globalization and change in technologies brought consumer development’. To understand this, there is need to understand
oriented market. The consumption of resources has increased at a the dynamics of human-environment interactions.
International Science Index, Urban and Civil Engineering Vol:11, No:7, 2017 waset.org/Publication/10007556
very high scale. This overconsumption pattern brought economic This paper elucidates the concept of exponential growth and
boom and provided multiple opportunities, but it also put stress on
how it is related with the growing population and resource
the natural resources. This paper tries to put forth the facts and
figures of the population growth and consumption of resources with consumption pattern. It further tries to explain the need for
examples. This is explained with the help of the mathematical understanding earth’s carrying capacity through ecological
expression of doubling known as exponential growth. It compares the footprint and bio-capacity. Exponential resource consumption
carrying capacity of the earth and resource consumption of humans’ by the increasing human population is explained with the case
i.e. ecological footprint and bio-capacity. Further, it presents the need examples of rice grains and chessboard story and other
to conserve natural resources and re-examine sustainable resource use
depleting resources. At the end, it tries to put forth the need to
approach for sustainability.
conserve resources for sustainability.
Keywords—Consumption, exponential growth, population,
resources, sustainability. II. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
A. Rice Grain and Chessboard
I. INTRODUCTION
The story of rice grains and chessboard [3], [4] paves a path
G ROWING population accompanied by high resource

consumption globally has imposed concerns for
sustainability. Humans’ life is dependent on natural resources.
in understanding exponential growth. Once upon a time the
King was pleased with a nobleman for his services. The King
wanted to reward him by his choice. The nobleman comes
Since humans’ existence, he is consuming natural resources in with a chessboard and requests the King to give him rice
the form of abiotic resources (land, water, air and minerals) grains. He insisted the gains should be given for 64 days
and other biotic resources. The symbiotic relationship between symbolizing the 64 squares on chessboard. It should start with
human and nature existed in past. Societies were based on one grain on the 1st square of chessboard on day one, two
natural resources. However, post-Industrial Revolution grains on the 2nd square on day two, four grains on the 3rd
brought a change in human lifestyles, which has started square on day three, likewise doubling the grains every day
imposing a severe danger due to excessive exploitation of until the 64th square. Although King was a good chess player,
resources. he was unaware of the amount of rice to be given to the
In the last few decades, technological developments and nobleman. He was delighted with the modest sounding
globalization brought about huge change in the consumptive reward.
pattern of societies. It has resulted in increased consumption The quantity of rice grains on the chessboard square is
of energy, water, minerals and fossil fuels; increased use of expressed in Table I. All went well initially but, the
land area; and increased waste generation. The environmental requirement for 2n − 1 grains on the nth square demanded over a
consequences due to this speedy consumption pattern are million grains on the 21st square and 109 i.e. one billion grains
observed in climate change. Natural resources are depleting, in the 31st chessboard square (Fig. 1 and Table I).
ecosystems and the ecological systems are degrading and One billion is a fascinating number. To get the sense of
many species are under the threat of extinction [1]. scale of 109 in the context of ‘Time’ [5], it is supported by
Currently, humans extract and use around 50% more natural following scientific evidence:
resources than only 30 years ago, at about 60 billion tons of  109 seconds ≈ 31.7 years
 109 minutes ≈1,900 years ago, Golden age of India (Gupta
Sarika Bahadure is with the Department of Architecture & Planning, Empire) emerged and the Roman Empire flourished
Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology, Nagpur, Maharashtra, India,  109 hours ≈ 114,000 years ago, modern human beings
440010 (phone: +91-712-2801290, +91-9422802789; e-mail:
[email protected]). lived in the Stone Age (Middle Paleolithic)
International Scholarly and Scientific Research & Innovation 11(7) 2017 902 scholar.waset.org/1999.3/10007556
 109 days ≈ 2.7 million years ago, Australopithecus, an Equation (1) represents the number of rice grains on
ape-like creature related to an ancestor of modern the first half of the chessboard. Assuming 25 milligram as the
humans, roamed in the African Savannas weight of one rice grain, the rice grains in first half will weigh
 109 months ≈ 82 million years ago, dinosaurs walked on 107,374 kg (about 100 metric tons). The first square of second
the Earth during the late Cretaceous half contains more grain than entire first half. Equation (2)
 109 years ago ≈ first multicellular eukaryotes appeared on represents the number of rice grains on the entire chessboard.
Earth
 13.7 × 109 years is the Universe’s age [6] 1 + 2 + 4 ... + 2,147,483,648 = 20 + 21 + 22… + 231 = 232 − 1
To count from one to one billion in a single sitting, it takes = 4,294,967,295 = 4.29 x 109 (1)
approximately 95 years [7].
20 + 21 + 22 ... + 263 = 264 − 1
= 18,446,744,073,709,551,615 = 1.84 x 1019 (2)
The rice grains in 64th square are 2.31 x 1011 tons and the
entire chessboard is 4.61 x 1011 tons. This is around 4400
times more than India’s annual rice production. India’s rice
production in 2011-12 is 1.05 x 108 tons [8]. The weight of
the rice grains on the entire chessboard would make a pile of
rice larger than Mount Everest. This is around 1,000 times the
global production of rice in 2010 (464,000,000 metric tons)
[9].
B. Exponential Growth
The rice grains and chessboard story represent exponential
growth. It increases at a constantly growing rate. It is very
slow in the early stages, but quickly accelerates. The graph in
Fig. 1 Chessboard representing the number of rice grains
Fig. 2 illustrates how exponential growth f(x) = 2x (red)
TABLE I
surpasses both linear f(x) = 50x (green) and cubic f(x) =
RICE GRAIN IN CHESSBOARD SQUARES x3(blue) growth for the first 12 units on x axis. Up till 5 units,
Square Mathematical Expression the exponential growth was not noticeable, but suddenly at 9
1st =1= 20 and 10 units the exponential growth exceeded linear and cubic
2nd 1x2 = 2 = 21 growth, respectively. Exponential growth is frequently
3rd 2x2 = 4 = 22 measured in terms of doubling time. The shorter the doubling
th
4 4x2 = 8 = 23 time, the faster is the rate of growth. Similarly, exponential
5th 8x2 =16 = 24 decay occurs when the growth rate is negative.
…………………………
11th =1024= 210~1000=103
…………………………
21st =220~106 =1 million =10 lakh
…………………………
31st =230~109=1 billion
Table II represents another interesting observation; the sum

of grains in all preceding squares is always less than grains in
the succeeding square.
TABLE II
GRAINS IN SQUARE AND PRECEDING SQUARE OF CHESSBOARD
Square Preceding Square
22 = 4 > 20 + 21 = 22 - 1 = 3
3 0 1 2
2 =8 >2 +2 +2 = 23 - 1 = 7
4 0 1 2 3
2 = 16 >2 +2 +2 +2 = 24 - 1 = 15 Fig. 2 Comparison of linear, cubic and exponential growth
5 0 1 2 3 4
2 =32 >2 +2 +2 +2 +2 = 25 - 1 = 31
III. HUMAN POPULATION
1) Guess the Quantity of Rice Grains
After few days, the King was not realized he did not enough A. Population Growth
grains to be reward the nobleman. What sounded like a modest Growth is affirmative change which happens over a period
reward, which was very easy to be given initially, became of time. It is necessary for the socio-economic development of
very tough later. But how is this possible? society. Growth can continue endlessly. If growth perpetuates
forever, then it will require infinite amounts of land, energy in 1987 (13 years), six billion in 1999 (12 years) and 7 billion
and other resources to keep the growth going; however, in 2011 (in just 11 years) [11]-[13].
resources are finite. Unless the population growth rate is reduced drastically, the
population will continue to grow. It was estimated that the
B. History of Human Existence and Exponential Growth
global population will reach 7 billion in 2013 (i.e. 14 years
In the history of human settlement, population growth was later), but this figure was surpassed in October 2011. It is
constant. The global human population was 15 million before further estimated it will take 15 years to reach eight billion (in
the invention of agriculture [10]. It increased to 250 million by 2028), another 16 years to reach nine billion (in 2054) and 100
the 1st century AD. It took 1,804 years for the population to more years to reach 10 billion (in 2183) [11]. Fig. 3 represents
reach one billion (=1000 million). It took another 123 years to this population growth pattern. It shows exponential growth
double the population to reach two billion in 1927, but it took which is referred as the ‘J’ curve.
only 33 years to reach three billion in 1960. The global
population climbed to 4 billion in 1974 (14 years), five billion
(a) World Population 10,000 BC–2000 AD [13]
(b) World Population since 1700 [14]

Fig. 3 World Human Population
In the 20th century alone, the world population has increased impossible. There are various factors that affect the growth
from 1.65 billion to 6 billion. The current global human pattern of a population (including human and all other species)
population is twice of what it was in 1970’s. A recent United like environmental factors, food resources, species
Nations projection indicated that the world population will interactions, natural calamity and human interventions.
reach 10 billion in the year 2056 (much earlier than previously
C. Exponential Growth and the Rule of 70
estimated) [12].
If a population has a constant growth rate through time and Rule of 70 is used to identify the time to double when
is never limited by anything like food, disease and other something is growing exponentially.
species, and resources remain unlimited; as well,
environmental conditions are constant, then it is known as 70 3)
%
exponential growth [15]. But this exact situation is practically
For example, if a town’s population growth rate is 2% per capital consumed per annum. It measures the capacity of
annum, then with the doubling rule, the population doubles in available natural resources to assimilate and rejuvenate the
35 years (70/2=35). Also, say a town’s population is due to amount of resources consumed and waste generated by the
double in 70 years. Then the population growth rate is 1% per humans [18], [19].
year (70/70=1). Just a 1% annual increase causes a doubling in Humanity is imposing heavy demand on the planet earth.
70 years [16]. Humans are taking much more resources from ecosystem and
Similar to the story of the rice and the chessboard, if a nature than it can replenish imposing threats for the future
population begins at 1 million and grows at a steady 3% generations. Currently, humanity uses equivalent to 1.5
annually, it will add 31,000 persons in the first year and planets to provide the resources used and absorb the waste, i.e.
almost 61,000 in the second year. At this growth rate, its it takes the earth one and half year to regenerate the resources
doubling time is 23 years (70/3 =23). used in a year. If current lifestyle continues, then second
The population growth rate of 1.2%, if applied to the planet identical to Earth will be required by the 2030 to meet
world's 6.5 billion population in 2005, it results in an increase the growing demands for energy and resources [20] (Fig. 4).
of about 78 million people annually. Even if growth rates
decline, the number of people added to the global population
will remain high for several decades because of the large and
increasing population size [17].
Population growth represents exponential growth resulting
in exponential resource consumption.
IV. RESOURCES
Resources are a life source for humans. Without them,
neither the economy nor society could function. It provides
food, water and air for survival; energy for electricity and
mobility; wood and metals for making furniture and daily use
items, minerals for medicines and agriculture; and
construction materials for shelter.
Humans’ use both abiotic resources like land water and
metallic minerals (gold, iron, etc.); and biotic resources like Fig. 4 Projected Growth Trend [21]
live stocks (plants and animals) and minerals (coal and
petroleum). Amongst these, few are renewable like solar and
wind energy, but most are non-renewable resources. Minerals
and fossils take a very long geological time to form. Metallic
minerals can be recycled but not coal or petroleum. Many
renewable resources can be depleted by human use but they
can also be replenished by preventative and alternative means.
For example, renewal time for agricultural is short, water is
long and forests is still longer. The destruction and depletion
of resources depends on the speed and quality of consumption.
The prices of fossil energy, raw materials and other
resources are too low and cannot match with the real cost of
the current level of resource use by the people worldwide [2].
Globally, the fuel is available at comparative lower price
without including its environmental cost. If the external cost
of its formation is added, it should cost much higher. Also, the Fig. 5 Human Demand on the Biosphere, 1961-2006 [21]
post-fuel use imposes environmental threats like climate
change, pollution and noise which further add to the external Average world bio-capacity is 1.8 global hectares per
cost. person; it means that there is an ecological deficit of 0.9 global
Resources are characterized by their utility; there is limited hectares per person. In 1961, human used a little more than
availability, and so there is a potential for depletion. Thus, half of the Earth’s bio-capacity and in 2006, it increased to
conservation and sustainable patterns of resource use are 44% more than available bio-capacity [20], [21] (Figs. 4 and
essential for achieving sustainability. 5). It means there is serious ecological debt and it is growing
A. Earth’s Carrying Capacity every day. If the current population maintain the lifestyle
similar to European standard of living (half of average
Resource consumption is understood through ecological
American), then the Earth could support only about 2 billion
footprint. An ecological footprint is a measure of human
people [16]. Thus, it’s crucial to understand the resource
impact on the Earth's ecosystems. It is measured as the natural
consumption pattern to fulfill future needs. resulted in a rise in resource demand and use. Evidences of
2.7 hectares of the world’s surface is used to supply food, unsustainable resource use is noticed everywhere. Human
fuel, raw materials and other natural resources to an intervention is putting high pressure on nature. The growing
individual. More than half of the ecological footprint is due to human population overexploits the earth’s natural resources
human’s carbon footprint and others are due to cropland, through land development, infrastructure development
grazing land, fishing grounds and developed land. (dams/water management, energy production, mining and
An average ecological footprint is 2.7 hectares (unevenly transport corridors, agriculture, aquaculture, hunting,
distributed between low, medium and high income countries). poaching, fishing and pollution. Various problems related to
The ecological footprint of high-income countries is five times the high usage of resources are degrading environment,
that of low-income countries [22]. The ecological footprint of depleting resources over-consumption, tragedy of the
all seven regions is more than its bio-capacity (Fig. 6). commons and myth of superabundance.
The world usage of natural resources is exponential [26].
For many resources the usage rate is growing faster than the
population, it means both the growing population and average
consumption per person in increasing. The resource
consumption is driven by both population and capital growth.
Over time, these resources have deceased in quantity and
quality but increased in cost. For example, the world's known
reserves of chromium are about 775 million metric tons, of

which about 1.85 million metric tons are mined annually. At
the current rate of use (Static Index), the known reserves
would last for about 420 years. However, the actual
consumption of chromium is increasing at the rate of 2.6%
annually, so it will last for only 95 years. Suppose, there are
five-fold more undiscovered new reserves, then the extended
lifetime of the reserves will increase from 95 years to only 154
years. If it is assumed that 100% chromium is recycled, so that
(a) Ecological Footprint
none of the initial reserves were lost, then demand will be
fulfilled for another 235 years [27]. Table III represents the
current mineral reserves and their projected availability with
static and exponential index.
C. Ravaging Natural Resources
The seven plus billion population is ravaging natural
resources. Few case examples are as follows:
According to the Living Planet Index (LPI), the populations
of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fishes has
declined by 52 percent since 1970 i.e. the population sizes of
vertebrate species have dropped by half in less than forty five
years [28].
The species in tropical regions (23.5° North to 23.5° South
latitude) declined by more than 60%, while species in
temperate zones (23.5° to 66.5° north and 23.5° to 66.5° south
latitude) increased by 31 percent since 1970 [22] due to the
anthropogenic and climate change.
(b) Bio-capacity Fish, one of the leading source of protein is severely
impacted, with a nearly five times increase in global catch,
Fig. 6 Ecological Footprint, Bio-capacity and Population by Region,
from 19 million tons in 1950 to 87 million tons in 2005 [22].
2007 [23]
In 2002, 72 percent of the world's marine fish stocks were
B. Resource Consumption and Exponential Growth being harvested faster than they could reproduce [29].
In 1789, Thomas Malthus predicted the future and Overfishing has put a threat over 2 billion people as it is a
suggested the population would increase geometrically, primary protein source [30].
doubling every 25 years, and food production would grow Water extraction from global aquifers is 3.5 times faster
arithmetically, which would lead to famine and starvation than rainfall can naturally recharge them [31]. The world’s 37
[24]; but, he overlooked the potential of farming and other largest aquifers were studied between 2003 and 2013 by Jay
technological development [25]. Famiglietti from California. It was found that 13 aquifers were
Increase in human population and consumption pattern has being depleted with no or little natural replenishment.
Amongst these, eight aquifers were classified as or "highly" stressed depending upon the level of replenishment
"overstressed", and another five were classified as "extremely" in each [32].
TABLE III
NON RENEWABLE NATURAL RESOURCES [27]
Known Global Static Index Projected Rate of Exponential Index Exponential Index 5 times
Resources
Reserves (tons) (years) Growth (% per year) (years) known Reserves (years)
Aluminum 1.17 x 109 100 6.4 31 55
Chromium 7.75 x 108 420 2.6 95 154
Coal 5 x 1012 2300 4.1 111 150
Copper 308 x 106 36 4.6 21 48
Iron 1 x 1011 240 1.8 93 173
Lead 91 x 106 26 2.0 21 64
Worldwide, forests are rapidly destroyed. In the past (0.8 hectare) per minute; it is the fastest such decline in the
decade alone, about 130 million hectares of forest were lost country's history [35].
[33]. Food is most necessary for human life. Land is the primary
To fulfill the needs of the growing population a great extent resource for producing food. In 1970, globally, the potential
of forest land is cleared for agriculture. This practice also land for agricultural was about 3.2 billion hectares (Fig. 7).
degrades the soil and results in erosion. Half of the topsoil on About 0.4 hectares per person of arable land (land capable of
the planet has been lost in the last 150 years majorly due to being cultivated) are needed at present productivity. The
deforestation, over grazing and use of agrochemicals [22]. arable land need thus reflects the population growth ‘J’ curve.
Loss of topsoil happens 10-40 times faster than it is formed. The projection in the 1970s represents the need for arable
Around 10 million hectares of croplands are lost due to soil land, with the existing population growth rate. As population
erosion annually, thus reducing the lands available for food grows, the available arable land decreases because it is
production [34]. Global farmland is losing rapidly. About 75 removed for urban development. The dotted curves indicate
million hectares cultivated land is lost every year due to soil land requirement with doubled or quadrupled productivity
erosion and urban sprawl [22]. The United States is losing [27].
mostly prime farmland for development at a rate of two acres
Fig. 7 Projected Arable Land Requirement [27]
Current lifestyle depends on exponential growth of the till 2050 [15]. If this growth rate continues, energy
economy. Economic recession happens when there is no consumption will increase 10-fold each century and the entire
exponential growth for more than three consecutive quarters. planet will reach boiling point in just four centuries. With
The capitalist economic growth is also contributing to rising these trends, there is need to drastically reduce the emissions
energy consumption. Since the 1970’s, world energy intensity of world energy consumption.
consumption has been growing at 2.3% a year. With this The consequences of the above can be observed in climate
growth rate, world energy consumption will increase to 130% change. There is a creation of massive waste and pollution. It
is difficult to answer how many people can be fed on this earth reduced [19], [36]. For sustainability, all capitals
and for how long? How many resources can we lose before (environmental and socio-economic) should be maintained
humanity’s own existence is threatened? The answer depends looking at its mutual interaction and interdependence.
on the trade-off between producing more food, goods and
C. Bacterial growth example
other services with humans’ needs and desires.
The exponential growth is observed in the physical Bacteria reproduce by prokaryotic fission (divide by binary
necessities. There is another category of vital components for fission). One cell divides into two, two into four and continues
growth, which consists of the social necessities. The society the process in a geometric fashion. Assume that bacteria have
depends on peace, social stability, education, health, all the food they need, but the limit to its growth are the walls
employment and development. These social factors are much of bottle. Say, in one minute it grows and divides into two
more difficult to assess or predict. The growing population is cells. It continues to grow every minute until one hour, when
increasing social unrest, resulting in resource conflicts and the bottle fills up. When is the bottle half full? It is fifty nine
wars, refugee migration, overcrowding, traffic congestion, minutes almost approaching an hour.
political problems, higher basic needs costs, and youth Currently, scientist, and professionals like environmentalist,
unemployment, etc. ecologist, planner socialist, etc. are showing concerns towards
environmental degradation and resource depletion. If the life
V. RE-EXAMINING SUSTAINABLE RESOURCE USE APPROACH on the earth since the first microorganism to the last living
creature is assumed to be equivalent to one hour, similar as in
A. Conservation Measure the bacteria case, then it can be assumed that currently this is
The human population is exploiting earth’s natural the 59th minute on earth. Thus, there is a threat that by the time
resources (renewable and non-renewable - fossil fuels, the efforts for sustainability are taken, the 59th minute will be
minerals, biota, sunlight, water and land) for its survival have passed.
without or with little conservation resulting in
‘unsustainability’. A few groups or institutions like the VI. CONCLUSION
environmentalist, ecologist, and strategists, as well as the The world population doubled twice in the past century,
World Wildlife Fund, the United Nations, etc. have realized energy consumption doubled about four times faster than that
the scale of the problems. They are advocating protection and and the number of goods (like automobiles) has double more
better management of the earth’s resources and habitat. This than 10 times the population. When the resource consumption
needs to be ingrained and implemented across the life cycle grows, the doubling time is frightening, as it means during this
from extraction, production, consumption to its disposal. It doubling time, the resource use is more than in all history
will require more equitable resource governance, appropriate before that time. It will not take time to reach a square on the
institutional arrangement, financial support and incentive to resource consumption chessboard that cannot just be filled.
conservation, innovative and efficient resource management Earth is a finite planet, and exponential consumption of finite
and above all, healthy consumption patterns. By now, the resources will lead to unsustainability.
scale of the problem is sensed and some steps are taken from Currently, population growth has declined to 1.13% per
local to global levels. Conferences like the Stockholm year from 2.19% in 1963. The annual growth rate is declining
Conference on the Human Environment (1972), World and it will continue to do so in the coming years. It can
Commission, United Nations Conference, World Summit on become as low as 0.5% by 2050. The declining growth rate
Environment and Development (1982, 1992, 2002 and 2012), may result in doubling time for population as two centuries
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, etc. try to [12]. The population growth may stabilize, but can a zero
address the resource conservation and sustainable population growth rate be sustainable? Also, can this earth
developments. The norms like pollution controls, forest sustain the increasing 8 or 9 billion population with the
conservation, endangered species regulations, etc. and the appropriate standard of living?
environmental taxes (polluter’s pay, precautionary principles, Weak sustainability theorist supports that there is no need to
external cost, etc.) are initiated at various forums. worry as alternative sources of energy and population de-
B. Weak and Strong Sustainability growth will resolve the environmental problem. This is being
The debate between environment and economy is observed very optimist and assuming a new planet is available for
in weak and strong sustainability. Weak sustainability states survival as in the case of bacteria where a new bottle is
that as long as the shrinking ‘natural capital’ is being replaced accessible, but how much more time is required to fill a few
by gains in the ‘human capital’, total capital will stay constant more bottles. On the contrary, a strong sustainability thinker
and the current level of consumption can continue. Increased believes it is difficult to meet the resource needs for more than
income level will augment environmental protection. few years; otherwise, stop growing. Thus, there is an urgent
Conversely, strong sustainability believes ‘natural capital’ and concern for the widespread need to recognize that we cannot
‘human capital’ are complementary and not interchangeable. continue consuming more and more, and deplete the earth’s
They consider the earth as finite and strongly believe that no finite resources.
habitable future is possible unless the demand is profoundly
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Power of Doubling

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World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology

Power of Doubling: Population Growth and Resource

 raw materials a year. People in rich countries consume up to

G ROWING population accompanied by high resource

Table II represents another interesting observation; the sum

(a) World Population 10,000 BC–2000 AD [13]

(b) World Population since 1700 [14]

in exponential resource consumption.

reserves of chromium are about 775 million metric tons, of

Fig. 7 Projected Arable Land Requirement [27]

REFERENCES Research, vol. 51, no. 7, pp. 5217-52, 2015.

www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbilpart1.pdf. of Architecture, KITS, Ramtek, Nagpur, India, (September 2000 to July

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