Afm Unit 1 - 5
Afm Unit 1 - 5
Afm Unit 1 - 5
S 1
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
UNIT-1
INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND RISK ANALYSIS
Risk:-
Risk involves the chance an investment's actual return will
differ from the expected return. Risk includes the possibility
of losing some or all of the original investment.
Definition of Risk:-
Emmett J Vaughan, “Risk is a condition in which there is
a possibility of an adverse deviation from a desired outcome
that is expected or hoped so far.”
Uncertainty:-
The lack of certainty, a state of limited knowledge where it
is impossible to exactly describe the existing state, a future
outcome, or more than one possible outcome.
Risk Analysis:-
Risk analysis is the systematic study
of uncertainties and risks we encounter in business,
engineering, public policy, and many other areas.
Types of Risk:-
A. Systematic Risk
Interest-rate risk arises due to variability in the interest rates from time to time. It
particularly affects debt securities as they carry the fixed rate of interest.
2. Market risk
Market risk is associated with consistent fluctuations seen in the trading price of any
particular shares or securities. That is, it arises due to rise or fall in the trading price of
listed shares or securities in the stock market.
Purchasing power risk is also known as inflation risk. It is so, since it emanates
(originates) from the fact that it affects a purchasing power adversely. It is not
desirable to invest in securities during an inflationary period.
B. Unsystematic Risk
Unsystematic risk is due to the influence of internal factors prevailing within an
organization. Such factors are normally controllable from an organization's point of
view.
3. Operational risk
Operational risks are the business process risks failing due to human errors. This risk
will change from industry to industry. It occurs due to breakdowns in the internal
procedures, people, policies and systems.
3. Sensitivity Technique:-
Sensitivity analysis is a good technique for forecasting the
attention of management on critical variable and showing
where additional analysis may be beneficial before finally
accepting a project.
Conditions:
Optimistic.
Most likely.
Pessimistic.
Limitations:
i. Variables are often interdependent, which makes
examining them each individually unrealistic. For example,
change in selling price will effect change in sales volume.
ii. The analysis is based on using past data/experience which
may not hold in future.
iii. Assigning a maximum and minimum or optimistic and
pessimistic value is open to subjective interpretation and risk
preference of the decision-maker.
iv. It is neither risk-measuring nor a risk-reducing technique.
It does not produce any clearer decision rule.
4. Probability Technique:-
A probability is the relative frequency with which an event
may occur in the future. When future estimates of cash
inflows have different probabilities the expected monetary
values may be computed by multiplying cash inflows with
the probabilities assigned.
Where,
Ke= Cost of equity capital.
D= Expected Dividend rate per share.
MP= Net proceeds of an equity share.
Where,
G= Growth rate.
NP= Net proceeds per share.
Ke= Cost of equity.
D1= Expected dividend per share.
MP= Market price of equity per share.
CHETHAN.S 4
Department of Management, SIMS
Where,
PD= Preference dividend.
NP= Net proceeds.
Kp= Cost of preference shares.
b) Cost of Redeemable Preference share capital.
Where,
I= Interest.
P= Principal.
Where,
P= Payable on Maturity.
NP= Net Proceeds.
N= No. of years to maturity.
T= Tax rate.
I= Interest.
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
Meaning:-
Capital structure of a company refers to the composition or make-up of
its capitalization and it includes all long-term capital resources viz:
loans, reserves, shares and bonds.”
Meaning of Capitalization:-
Capitalization refers to the total amount of securities issued by a
company while capital structure refers to the kinds of securities and
the proportionate amounts that make up capitalization.
Causes of Risk:-
1. Wrong method of investment.
2. Wrong timing of investment.
3. Wrong quantity of investment.
4. Interest rate risk.
5. Nature of investment instruments.
6. Nature of industry in which the company is operating.
7. Creditworthiness of the issuer.
8. Maturity period or length of investment.
9. Terms of lending.
10. Natural calamities.
Types of Risk:-
Risk
Systematic Unsystematic
Risk Risk
Formulas:-
Market value of the firm = S + D
Where, S= Market value of equity shares,
=
Particulars Amount
EBIT xxxx
Less:-Interest on Debentures xxxx
XXXXXXX
CHETHAN.S 11
Department of Management, SIMS
=
Where,
EBIT= Earnings before interest and tax.
I= Interest on Debentures.
V= Value of the firm.
D= Value of debt capital.
CHETHAN.S 13
Department of Management, SIMS
It is found from the above that the average cost curve is U-shaped.
That is, at this stage the cost of capital would be minimum which is
expressed by the letter ‘A’ in the graph. If we draw a perpendicular to
the X-axis, the same will indicate the optimum capital structure for the
firm.
Thus, the traditional position implies that the cost of capital is not
independent of the capital structure of the firm and that there is an
optimal capital structure.
At that optimal structure, the marginal real cost of debt (explicit and
implicit) is the same as the marginal real cost of equity in equilibrium.
For degree of leverage before that point, the marginal real cost of debt
is less than that of equity beyond that point the marginal real cost of
debt exceeds that of equity.
CHETHAN.S 15
Department of Management, SIMS
Formulas:-
Particulars Amount
EBIT xxxx
Less:-Interest on Debentures xxxx
Proposition:
The following propositions outline the MM argument about the
relationship between cost of capital, capital structure and the
total value of the firm:
(i) The cost of capital and the total market value of the firm are
independent of its capital structure. The cost of capital is equal to the
capitalization rate of equity stream of operating earnings for its class,
and the market is determined by capitalizing its expected return at an
appropriate rate of discount for its risk class.
(ii) The second proposition includes that the expected yield on a share
is equal to the appropriate capitalization rate of a pure equity stream
for that class, together with a premium for financial risk equal to the
difference between the pure-equity capitalization rate (Ke) and yield on
debt (Kd). In short, increased Ke is offset exactly by the use of cheaper
debt.
(iii) The cut-off point for investment is always the capitalization rate
which is completely independent and unaffected by the securities that
are invested.
Assumptions:
The MM proposition is based on the following assumptions:
(a) Existence of Perfect Capital Market It includes:
(i) There is no transaction cost;
(ii) Flotation costs are neglected;
(iii) No investor can affect the market price of shares;
(iv) Information is available to all without cost;
(v) Investors are free to purchase and sale securities.
CHETHAN.S 18
Department of Management, SIMS
Formulas:-
UNIT-3
DIVIDEND THEORIES
Meaning of Dividend:-
The term dividend refers to that part of after-tax profit which is distributed to
the owners of the company.
DIVIDEND THEORIES:-
1. Walter’s model
2. Gordon’s model
1. Walter’s model:
Professor James E. Walterargues that the choice of dividend policies almost
always affects the value of the enterprise. His model shows clearly the
importance of the relationship between the firm’s internal rate of return (r)
and its cost of capital (k) in determining the dividend policy that will maximise
the wealth of shareholders.
2. The firm’s internal rate of return (r), and its cost of capital (k) are constant;
4. Beginning earnings and dividends never change. The values of the earnings
pershare (E), and the divided per share (D) may be changed in the model to
determine results, but any given values of E and D are assumed to remain
constant forever in determining a given value.
Walters Model P = +
Criticism:
Walter’s model is quite useful to show the effects of dividend policy on an all
equity firm under different assumptions about the rate of return. However, the
simplified nature of the model can lead to conclusions which are net true in
general, though true for Walter’s model.
most profitable investments are made first and then the poorer investments
are made.
The firm should step at a point where r = k. This is clearly an erroneous policy
and fall to optimise the wealth of the owners.
2. Gordon’s Model:
One very popular model explicitly relating the market value of the firm to
dividend policy is developed by Myron Gordon.
Assumptions:
Gordon’s model is based on the following assumptions.
Gordon’s Approach P=
P= Price of shares
E= Earnings per share
B= Retention Ratio
Ke= Cost of equity capital
Br= Growth rate/ Rate of return on investment of an all-equity firm
Thus, when investment decision of the firm is given, dividend decision the split
of earnings between dividends and retained earnings is of no significance in
determining the value of the firm. M – M’s hypothesis of irrelevance is based on
the following assumptions.
4. Risk of uncertainty does not exist. That is, investors are able to forecast
future prices and dividends with certainty and one discount rate is appropriate
for all securities and all time periods. Thus, r = K = K t for all t.
Under M – M assumptions, r will be equal to the discount rate and identical for
all shares. As a result, the price of each share must adjust so that the rate of
return, which is composed of the rate of dividends and capital gains, on every
share will be equal to the discount rate and be identical for all shares.
Thus, the rate of return for a share held for one year may be calculated
as follows:
Where P^ is the market or purchase price per share at time 0, P, is the market
price per share at time 1 and D is dividend per share at time 1. As hypothesised
by M – M, r should be equal for all shares. If it is not so, the low-return yielding
shares will be sold by investors who will purchase the high-return yielding
shares.
This process will tend to reduce the price of the low-return shares and to
increase the prices of the high-return shares. This switching will continue until
the differentials in rates of return are eliminated. This discount rate will also
be equal for all firms under the M-M assumption since there are no risk
differences.
Criticism:
CHETHAN.S 9
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT, SIMS
2. M-M argue that the internal and external financing are equivalent. This
cannot be true if the costs of floating new issues exist.
4. Even under the condition of certainty it is not correct to assume that the
discount rate (k) should be same whether firm uses the external or internal
financing.
If investors have desire to diversify their port folios, the discount rate for
external and internal financing will be different.
5. M-M argues that, even if the assumption of perfect certainty is dropped and
uncertainty is considered, dividend policy continues to be irrelevant. But
according to number of writers, dividends are relevant under conditions of
uncertainty.
CHETHAN.S 10
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT, SIMS
b) Number of shares to be issued P1= Market price per share at the end of the
period
Ke= Cost of equity capital
n= Number of shares outstanding at the
nP0=
CHETHAN.S 1
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
The importance of sufficient working capital in any business concern can never
be overemphasized. A concern requires adequate working capital to carry on
its day-to-day operations smoothly and efficiently. Lack of adequate working
capital not only impairs firm’s profitability but also results in stoppage in
production and efficiency in payment of its current obligations.
5. Easy Loan:
Adequate amount of working capital builds a sound credit-worthiness of the
firm. As a result it becomes easier for the firm to obtain additional loans in
favorable terms and conditions in order to meet seasonal increase in demand
or to finance the increased working capital resulting from expansion.
Current Assets:
Current assets generally mean those assets which, in the normal and ordinary
course of business, will be or are likely to be converted into cash within a year.
6. Pre-paid expenses
7. Accrued Income
Current Liabilities:
Current liabilities mean those liabilities repayable within the same period, i.e., a
year. In other words, current liabilities are those which are to be repaid in the
ordinary course of the business within a year.
2. Bills payable
CHETHAN.S 5
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
3. Outstanding expenses
6. Proposed dividend
7. Bank overdraft.
A firm should always maintain a requisite amount of working capital for smooth
and efficient functioning of its operations. The total working capital
requirement is determined by a wide variety of factors. These factors affect
different enterprises differently. They also vary from time to time.
4. Business Cycle:
The working capital requirements are also determined by the nature of the
business cycle. During the boom period, the need for working capital will
increase to meet the requirements of increased production and sales. On the
other hand, in a slack period, the reduced volume of operation will require
relatively lower amount of working capital.
On the other hand, a liberal credit policy will result in higher amount of book
debts. Higher book debts will mean more working capital requirement. If the
firm has to purchase raw materials in cash or gets credit for shorter period, it
has to arrange for relatively higher amount of working capital.
6. Seasonal Variations:
There are industries like cold drinks, ice-cream and woolen where the goods
are either produced or sold seasonally. So, in such industries, working capital
requirements during production or sale seasons will be large and these will
start decreasing when the season starts coming-to end.
7. Operating Efficiency:
If the operating efficiency of a firm is very high, the resources will be properly
utilized. As a result, it improves the profitability of the firm which ultimately,
helps in releasing the pressure of working capital. On other hand, inefficiency
compels the firm to maintain relatively a high level of working capital.
But what portion of this profit will be reinvested as working capital will depend
upon the retention policy of a firm which is, again influenced by corporate tax
structure and dividend policy. So, if the amount of retained profit is not
immediately invested outside the business, it would increase the amount of
working capital.
On the other hand, there are some businesses, like jewellery, having very slow
turnover of the stocks—leading to the need for a larger amount of working
capital.
Net Working Capital: It implies the surplus of current assets over current
liabilities. A positive net working capital shows the company’s ability to cover
short-term liabilities, whereas a negative net working capital indicates the
company’s inability in fulfilling short-term obligations.
On the basis of Time
Temporary working Capital: Otherwise known as variable working capital,
it is that portion of capital which is needed by the firm along with the
permanent working capital, to fulfil short-term working capital needs that
emerge out of fluctuation in the sales volume.
Permanent Working Capital: The minimum amount of working capital that a
company holds to carry on the operations without any interruption, is called
permanent working capital.
Other types of working capital include Initial working capital and Regular
working capital. The capital required by the promoters to initiate the business
is known as initial working capital. On the other hand, regular working capital is
one that is required by the firm to carry on its operations effectively.
In short, the working capital cycle is the average time required to invest cash
in assets and reconverting it into cash by selling the assets produced.
The working capital cycle may vary from enterprise to enterprise depending on
various factors, such as nature and size of business, production policies,
manufacturing process, fluctuations in trade cycle, credit policy, terms and
conditions for purchase and sales, etc.
Cash Management:-
Cash management refers to a broad area of finance involving the collection,
handling, and usage of cash. It involves assessing market liquidity, cash flow,
and investments
(viii) To build reservoir for net cash inflow till the availability of better use of
funds by conscious planning;
3. Maximum efforts to define and quantify the liquidity reserve needs of the
firm;
5. Aggressive search for relatively more productive uses for surplus money
assets.
Thus, for achieving the goals of cash management, a finance manager have to,
first of all, plan cash needs of the firm. This is followed by the management of
cash flows, determination of optimum level of cash and finally, investment of
surplus cash.
1. Transaction Motive: The transaction motive refers to the cash required by a firm to
meet the day to day needs of its business operations. In an ordinary course of business,
the firm requires cash to make the payments in the form of salaries, wages, interests,
dividends, goods purchased, etc.
CHETHAN.S 17
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
Cash Budget:-
Cash budget is a written estimate of a firm’s future cash position. It predicts
for some future period the cash receipts from different sources, cash
disbursements for different purposes and the resulting cash position generally
on a monthly basis as the budget period develops. It is, thus, a formal
presentation of-expected circular flow of cash through the business.
The cash budget consists of three parts:
(1) The forecast of cash inflows,
(2) The forecast of cash outflows, and
(3) The forecast of cash balance.
CHETHAN.S 18
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
Receivables Management:-
Introduction:-
Receivables Management is another key area of working capital
management apart from cash and inventory. Receivables constitution a
substantial portion of current assets of a firm. As substantial amounts are
involved, proper management of receivables is very important.
Meaning of Receivables:-
The term ‘receivables’ refers to debt owed to the firm by the customer
resulting from sale of goods or services in the ordinary course of business.
These are the funds blocked due to credit sales. Receivables area also called
as trade receivables, accounts receivables, book debt, sundry debtor and
bills receivables etc. Management of receivables is also known as
management of trade credit.
Increased Profits Motive:- Due to credit sale, the total sales of business increase. This,
in turn, results in increase in profits of the business.
Sales Retention or meeting Competition Motive:-In business, Goods are sold on credit
to protect the current sales against emerging competition. If goods are sold on credit to
protect the current sales against emerging competition. If goods are not sold on credit,
the customer may shift to the competitor who allow credit facility to them.
Cost Of investment in Receivables:– When a firm sells goods or services on credit, it
has to bear several types of costs. These costs are as follow:-
Administrative cost:- To record the credit sale and collection from the customers, a
separate credit department with additional staff, accounting records, stationery etc is
CHETHAN.S 20
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
needed. Expenses have also been incurred on acquiring information about the credit
worthiness of the customer.
Capital cost:- There is a time lag between sales of goods and its collection from the
customers. Meanwhile, the firm has to pay for purchase, wages, salary and other
expenses. Therefore, the firm needs additional funds, which may be arranged either from
external sources or from retain earnings. Both of these sources involve cost.
Collection cost:- These are the expense incurred by the firm on collection from the
customer after expiry of the credit period. Such costs include blocking up of funds for an
extended period, expenses on issuing reminders to the customer etc.
Default cost:-Despite all the effort by the management, the firm may not be able to
recover full amount due from the customers. Such dues are known as bad debts or
default cost.
Expansion Plans:- When a concern wants to expand its activities, it will have to enter
new market. To attract customers, it will give incentives in the form of credit facilities.
The period of credit can be reduced when the firm is able to get permanent customers. In
the early stages of expansion more credit becomes essential and size of receivables will
be more.
Relation with profits:- The credit policy is followed with a view to increase sales. When
sales increase beyond a certain level the additional costs incurred are less than the
increase in revenue. It will be beneficial to increase in the size of receivables or vice
versa.
Habits of Customers:- The paying habits of the customers also have a bearing on the
size of receivables. The customer may be in the habit of delaying payments even though
they are financially sound. The concern should remain in touch with such customers and
should make them realize the urgency of their needs.
CHETHAN.S 22
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
Effect of cost of Goods sold:- Some time an increase in sales result in decrease in cost
of goods sold. If this is so then sales should be increased to that extent where costs are
low, the increase in sales will also increase the amount of receivables, the estimate sales
will enable the estimate of receivables too.
Forecasting Expenses:- The receivables are associated with number of expenses like
administrative expenses on collection of amount, cost of funds tied down in receivables,
bad debts etc. At the same time the increase in receivables will bring in more profit by
increasing sales. If cost receivable are more than the increase in income, further credit
sales should not be allowed.
Forecasting Collection period and Discount:- The credit collection policy will spell out
the time allowed for making payments and the time allowed for availing discounts. If the
average collection period is more then the size of receivables will be more.
3. Ageing Schedule.
4. Collection matrix.
CHETHAN.S 23
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
Valuation of Securities:-
1. Debenture/Bond Valuation:-
If a company needs funds for extension and development purpose without
increasing its share capital, it can borrow from the general public by issuing
certificates for a fixed period of time and at a fixed rate of interest. Such a
loan certificate is called a debenture. Debentures are offered to the public for
subscription in the same way as for issue of equity shares. Debenture is issued
under the common seal of the company acknowledging the receipt of money.
Features of Debentures:
The important features of debentures are as follows:
1. Debenture holders are the creditors of the company carrying a fixed rate of
interest.
Advantage of Debentures:
Following are some of the advantages of debentures:
(a) Issue of debenture does not result in dilution of interest of equity
shareholders as they do not have right either to vote or take part in the
management of the company.
(c) Cost of debenture is relatively lower than preference shares and equity
shares.
Disadvantages of Debentures:
Following are the disadvantages of debentures:
(a) Payment of interest on debenture is obligatory and hence it becomes
burden if the company incurs loss.
(b) Debentures are issued to trade on equity but too much dependence on
debentures increases the financial risk of the company.
(d) During depression, the profit of the company goes on declining and it
becomes difficult for the company to pay interest.
CHETHAN.S 9
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT, SIMS
2. Mortgage Debenture:
This type of debenture is issued by mortgaging an asset and debenture holders
can recover their dues by selling that particular asset in case the company
fails to repay the claim of debenture holders.
3. Non-convertible Debentures:
A non-convertible debenture is a debenture where there is no option for its
conversion into equity shares. Thus the debenture holders remain debenture
holders till maturity.
6. Redeemable Debentures:
Redeemable debenture is a debenture which is redeemed/repaid on a prede-
termined date and at predetermined price.
CHETHAN.S 10
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT, SIMS
7. Irredeemable Debenture:
Such debentures are generally not redeemed during the lifetime of the com-
pany. So, it is also termed as perpetual debt. Repayment of such debenture
takes place at the time of liquidation of the company.
8. Registered Debentures:
Registered debentures are those debentures where names, address, serial
number, etc., of the debenture holders are recorded in the register book of the
company. Such debentures cannot be easily transferred to another person.
9. Unregistered Debentures:
Unregistered debentures may be referred to those debentures which are not
recorded in the company’s register book. Such a type of debenture is also
known as bearer debenture and this can be easily transferred to any other
person.
The rate of dividend on these shares depends upon the profits of the company.
They may be paid a higher rate of dividend or they may not get anything. These
shareholders take more risk as compared to preference shareholders.
(ii) Equity shareholders have voting rights and elect the management of the
company.
(iii) The rate of dividend on equity capital depends upon the availability of
surplus funds. There is no fixed rate of dividend on equity capital.
2. Equity shares can be issued without creating any charge over the assets of
the company.
4. Equity shareholders are the real owners of the company who have the voting
rights.
5. Investors who desire to invest in safe securities with a fixed income have no
attraction for such shares.
Deferred Shares:
These shares were earlier issued to Promoters or Founders for services
rendered to the company. These shares were known as Founders Shares
because they were normally issued to founders. These shares rank last so far
as payment of dividend and return of capital is concerned. Preference shares
and equity shares have priority as to payment of dividend.
(c) Preference shareholders do not have any voting rights and hence do not
affect the decision making of the company.
(c) Redemption of preference share again creates financial burden and erodes
the capital base of the company.
(d) Preference shareholders get dividend at a constant rate and it will not
increase even if the company earns a huge profit, which makes this form of
finance less attractive.
(e) Preference shareholders do not enjoy the voting rights and hence their fate
is decided by the equity shareholders.