POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN

PANGASINAN I ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE

(PANELCO I)

In compliance with the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Department Circular No. DC 2018-
02-0003, “Adopting and Prescribing the Policy for the Competitive Selection Process in
the Procurement by the Distribution Utilities of Power Supply Agreement for the Captive
Market” or the Competitive Selection process (CSP) Policy, the Power Supply
Procurement Plan (PSPP) Report is hereby created, pursuant to the Section 4 of the said
Circular.

The PSPP refers to the DUs’ plan for the acquisition of a variety of demand-side and
supply-side resources to cost-effectively meet the electricity needs of its customers. The
PSPP is an integral part of the Distribution Utilities’ Distribution Development Plan (DDP)
and must be submitted to the Department of Energy with supported Board Resolution
and/or notarized Secretary’s Certificate.

The Third-Party Bids and Awards Committee (TPBAC), Joint TPBAC or Third Party
Auctioneer (TPA) shall submit to the DOE and in the case of Electric Cooperatives (ECs),
through the National Electrification Administration (NEA) the following:

a. Power Supply Procurement Plan; and

b. Distribution Impact Study/ Load Flow Analysis conducted that served as the basis
of the Terms of Reference;
c. Due diligence report of the existing generation plant

All Distribution Utilities’ shall follow and submit the attached report to the Department of
Energy for posting on the DOE CSP Portal. For ECs such reports shall be submitted to
DOE and NEA. The NEA shall review the submitted report within ten (10) working days
upon receipt prior to its submission to DOE for posting at the DOE CSP Portal.

The content of the PSPP shall be consistent with the DDP. The tables and graph format
to be use on the PSPP report is provided on the following sheets. Further, the PSPP shall
contain the following sections:

I. Table of Contents
II. Introduction
III. Demand Forecast (10 year historical and forecast)
IV. Energy Sales and Purchase
V. Daily Load Profile and Load Duration Curve
VI. Currently approved SAGR for Off-Grid ECs to be passed-on to consumers;
VII. DU’s Current Supply and Demand
VIII. Distribution Impact Study
IX. Schedule of Power Supply Procurement
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS ii
INTRODUCTION 1
DEMAND FORECAST (10 YEAR HISTORICAL AND FORECAST) 2
ENERGY SALES AND PURCHASE 4
2017 DAILY LOAD PROFILE AND LOAD DURATION CURVE 6
DU’s CURRENT SUPPLY AND DEMAND 7
EXISTING POWER SUPPLY CONTRACTS 8
SCHEDULE OF POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT 9
PANELCO I MONTHLY QUANTITIES 10

ii
 INTRODUCTION

Panelco I is the exclusive franchise holder to operate an electric franchise holder to operate an electric
light and power services in the City of Alaminos and Municipalities of Agno, Anda, Bani, Bolinao, Burgos,
Dasol, Infanta and Mabini, all in the province of Pangasinan.

No. of Customer
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Connections in
Residential 71,220 75,617 79,890 84,236 88,652 93,141 97,701 102,333 107,036 111,811 116,657
Commercial 2,379 2,395 2,417 2,439 2,463 2,487 2,513 2,539 2,567 2,595 2,624
Industrial 203 214 227 241 256 272 289 307 325 345 365
Others 1,610 1,669 1,726 1,785 1,845 1,907 1,970 2,033 2,099 2,165 2,233
Total 75,412 79,894 84,260 88,701 93,217 97,807 102,472 107,212 112,026 116,915 121,879

The positive outlook on PANELCO I’s kWh sales growth is mainly driven by positive economic 2017 No. of Customers
growth in the region. GRDP for 2017 grew by 10.9% vs 2016; and NEDA projected a growth
Industrial
range of 9.2% to 10.5% yearly GRDP up to year 2022. PANELCO I is expecting big loads in 0% Others
the coverage area wherein the project of Robinson Supermaket and Savemore. Construction Commercial 2%
of Hotels and Hospital are also in the list of on going projects of the Alaminos City 4%
LGU.PANELCO I has total of contract capacity demand 15,530 kilowatts and contracted
energy demand of 78,945,770 kilowatthour for ther year 2017 with MPPCL-AES which
contract is until October 25, 2022.

Residential
94%

1 Residential Commercial Industrial Others

 DEMAND FORECAST (10 YEAR HISTORICAL AND FORECAST)

HISTORICAL
Demand
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Coincident
15.03 15.91 16.93 17.19 16.93 18.36 19.75 20.79 24.14 25.57
Peak (MW)
Off Peak
10.52 10.33 11.38 11.57 11.94 12.58 13.38 14.58 16.46 19.91
Demand (MW)

FORECASTED
Demand
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Coincident
27.22 28.92 30.59 32.24 33.87 35.48 37.06 38.62 40.16 41.68
Peak (MW)
Off Peak
19.73 21.23 22.88 24.69 26.67 28.79 31.08 33.53 36.13 38.97
Demand (MW)

Coincident Peak Versus Off Peak Demand

Coincident Peak (MW) Off Peak Demand (MW)
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
MW

25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
HISTORICAL FORECASTED
YEAR

2
 3

In 2017, there was no significant entry of big industrial/commercial customer or spot load except for the expected normal forecasted load. Looking

forward, we are anticipating a demand growth of about 8.7MW in 2022 from year 2017. This is triggered by growth in GDP as well as establishment

of commercial buildings.

In the following diagram, the bulk of energy requirements of PANELCO I is currently being supplied by Masinloc Power Partners Limited (MPPCL),

a coal-powered generator. Currently, any excess or deficit from the supply is being sold to or bought from the Wholesale Spot Market (WESM).

However, PANELCO I contract with MPPCL is about to expire on year 2022, which covered 16MW Baseload Contracted Demand. Hence we are

planning to conduct Competitive Selection Process (CSP) for baseload and peaking requirements upto maximum of 32MW.
 4

ENERGY SALES AND PURCHASE

HISTORICAL
ENERGY SALES AND PURCHASE
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Energy Sales (MWh) 56,478.00 57,702.47 71,633.37 69,502.53 72,124.77 79,278.14 85,555.73 93,991.88 107,667.35 116,795.87
Energy Purchase (MWh) 68,866.75 69,077.02 84,280.80 83,114.85 86,761.93 94,217.01 99,537.54 108,023.05 123,491.39 133,195.54
System Loss (MWh) 12,388.75 11,374.55 12,647.43 13,612.32 14,637.16 14,938.86 13,981.81 14,031.17 15,824.04 16,399.66

ENERGY SALES AND FORECAST

PURCHASE 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Energy Sales (MWh) 126,898.16 138,238.92 150,144.85 162,613.65 175,643.27 189,231.95 203,378.17 218,080.71 233,338.59 249,151.11
Energy Purchase (MWh) 143,220.16 155,110.94 167,637.33 180,799.34 194,596.97 209,030.21 224,099.08 239,803.56 256,143.66 273,119.38
System Loss (MWh) 16,322.00 16,872.02 17,492.48 18,185.69 18,953.69 19,798.26 20,720.90 21,722.85 22,805.07 23,968.27
 5

Energy Purchase vs Energy Sales

Energy, MWH

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
YEARS

Energy Sales (MWh) Energy Purchase (MWh) System Loss (MWh)

 2017 DAILY LOAD PROFILE AND LOAD DURATION CURVE

PANELCO-I 1-YEAR HOURLY LOAD PROFILE

30.00

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

PANELCO-I Load Duration Curve

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

60.84% LF 70% LF 75% LF 80% LF 85% LF 90% LF 95% LF 100% LF

Based on the load curve identify the base-load, mid-merit and peaking. As such

the data can be used for the strategy in contracting the DUs demand requirement. Over

the year 2017, 85%-90% of the time, PANELCO I is consuming 15MW and more.

PANELCO is projecting increase of baseload demand to 20MW in the year 2022.

During the 4th Quarter of 2022, Supply Contract with Masinloc Power Partners will expire.

This entails about 33.87-35.48MW uncontracted capacity and exposure to the spot

market. Hence, CSP for such uncontracted demand is necessary.

6
 DU’s CURRENT SUPPLY AND DEMAND

ACTUAL FORECAST
SUPPLY / DEMAND
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Peak Demand, MW 25.565 27.22 28.92 30.59 32.24 33.87 35.48 37.06 38.62 40.16 41.68
Supply Contracted, MW 15.71 15.88 16.06 16.24 16.42 16.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Masinloc Power Partners Ltd. 15.71 15.88 16.06 16.24 16.42 16.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Supply for Approval, MW 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

Uncontracted Demand, MW 9.86 11.34 12.86 14.35 15.82 17.26 35.48 37.06 38.62 40.16 41.68

60
50
LOAD IN MW

40
30
20
10
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
YEAR

Contracted by Masinloc For PSA approval by ERC Uncontracted Capacity Peak Demand

7
 8
EXISTING POWER SUPPLY CONTRACTS

Base / Mid- Embedded/ Utility-owned/ Net

Supply Plant Owner/ Capacity PSA Effectivity PSA Expiration Contracted Contracted Installed
merit / Grid NPC/ IPP/ Status Fuel Type Dependable
Contracted Operator Factor (MM/YR) (MM/YR) Capacity, MW Energy, MWH Capacity (MW)
Peaking Connected NPC-IPP Capacity (MW)
GenCo 1 MPPCL 100 26-Oct-09 25-Oct-22 16.61 74,981 Base Grid Coal 600 600
GenCo 2
GenCo 3
GenCo 4
GenCo 5

During the 4th Quarter of 2022, Supply Contract of PANELCO I with Masinloc Power Partners will expire. This entail about 32 MW uncontracted

capacity and exposure to the spot market. Hence, CSP for such uncontracted demand is necessary.
 SCHEDULE OF POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT

For CSP Proposed contract period Proposed schedule (MM/YYYY)

Base / mid- Publication Submission Joint
Demand Energy Start Month End Month Pre-bid Bid
merit / peaking of Invitation and Opening Awarding PSA Signing Application
(MW) (MWh) and Year and Year Conference Evaluation
to Bid of Bids to ERC

Base
20 MW 4,320,000 Nov 2022 Nov 2047 28-Jan-2019 8-Feb-2019 22-Feb-2019 1-Mar-2019 8-Mar-2019 13-Mar-2019 1-Apr-2019
Midmerit/
Peaking 12 MW 363,710 Nov 2022 Nov 2027 28-Jan-2019 8-Feb-2019 22-Feb-2019 1-Mar-2019 8-Mar-2019 13-Mar-2019 1-Apr-2019

9
 10

PANELCO I MONTHLY QUANTITIES

Contracted and For PSA Uncontracted Demand
Year Forecast Committed for CSP
Approval Demand and Energy and Energy
Coincident Off Peak Energy Demand Uncontracted Uncontracted Demand Energy
Peak Demand Demand (MW) Requirement (MW) Energy (MWh) Demand (MW) Energy (MWh) (MW) (MWh)
2018
January 21.97 14.53 10,968.65 15.710 6,693.25 6.26 4,275.40
February 22.49 13.92 10,547.36 15.260 6,717.20 7.23 3,830.16
March 23.20 13.74 11,194.23 15.760 6,575.00 7.44 4,619.23
April 25.51 13.39 13,838.21 15.530 7,400.97 9.98 6,437.24
May 27.22 13.84 14,300.94 14.900 6,559.07 12.32 7,741.87
June 24.86 14.94 13,096.40 15.190 6,469.48 9.67 6,626.92
July 24.59 15.64 12,156.58 15.880 6,545.46 8.71 5,611.12
August 23.62 16.56 12,043.93 15.370 6,656.99 8.25 5,386.94
September 23.62 18.37 11,888.60 15.530 6,723.32 8.09 5,165.28
October 23.31 19.26 11,442.55 15.180 6,471.55 8.13 4,971.00
November 24.94 19.73 12,832.98 15.060 6,740.13 9.88 6,092.85
December 23.33 18.10 11,943.03 14.900 6,248.29 8.43 5,694.74
2019
January 24.80 15.63 11,975.36 18 8,111.71 6.91 3,863.65
February 25.38 14.98 11,515.40 17 8,129.66 7.97 3,385.74
March 26.34 14.78 12,221.65 18 7,987.02 8.42 4,234.63
April 28.92 14.41 15,108.29 18 8,819.91 11.23 6,288.38
May 28.42 14.89 15,613.48 17 7,986.14 11.33 7,627.34
June 26.52 16.08 14,298.39 17 7,880.21 9.17 6,418.18
July 26.23 16.83 13,272.31 18 7,962.70 8.17 5,309.61
August 25.20 17.82 13,149.33 18 8,074.11 7.67 5,075.22
September 25.19 19.76 12,979.74 18 8,138.41 7.50 4,841.33
October 24.87 20.72 12,492.76 17 7,885.68 7.52 4,607.08
November 26.60 21.23 14,010.79 17 8,154.43 9.38 5,856.36
December 24.89 19.47 13,039.17 17 7,660.74 7.82 5,378.43
2020
January 26.24 16.85 13,088.04 18 8,187.18 8.35 4,900.86
February 26.85 16.14 12,585.35 17 8,199.05 9.44 4,386.30
March 27.86 15.93 13,357.21 18 8,055.96 9.94 5,301.25
April 30.59 15.53 16,512.06 18 8,895.88 12.90 7,616.18
May 30.06 16.05 17,064.20 18 8,070.33 12.06 8,993.87
June 28.05 17.33 15,626.91 17 7,947.85 10.70 7,679.06
July 27.75 18.14 14,505.50 18 8,036.92 9.69 6,468.58
August 26.66 19.21 14,371.08 18 8,148.22 9.13 6,222.86
September 26.65 21.30 14,185.74 18 8,210.45 8.96 5,975.29
October 26.31 22.34 13,653.51 17 7,956.75 8.96 5,696.76
November 28.14 22.88 15,312.59 18 8,225.69 10.14 7,086.90
December 26.33 20.99 14,250.69 17 7,730.11 9.26 6,520.58
2021
January 27.65 18.18 14,306.68 18 8,261.30 9.76 6,045.38
February 28.30 17.42 13,757.19 17 8,273.30 10.89 5,483.89
March 29.36 17.20 14,600.92 18 8,128.66 11.44 6,472.26
April 32.24 16.76 18,049.52 18 8,977.68 14.55 9,071.85
May 31.68 17.32 18,653.07 18 8,143.18 13.68 10,509.88
June 29.57 18.71 17,081.95 18 8,019.38 11.57 9,062.58
July 29.25 19.58 15,856.13 18 8,109.41 11.19 7,746.71
August 28.09 20.73 15,709.20 18 8,221.92 10.56 7,487.28
September 28.09 22.99 15,506.60 18 8,284.82 10.40 7,221.77
October 27.73 24.11 14,924.81 17 8,028.37 10.38 6,896.43
November 29.66 24.69 16,738.37 18 8,300.23 11.66 8,438.15
December 27.75 22.65 15,577.60 17 7,799.28 10.68 7,778.32
2022
January 29.05 19.64 15,631.30 18 8,336.01 11.16 7,295.29
February 29.72 18.81 15,030.93 17 8,348.13 12.31 6,682.79
March 30.85 18.57 15,952.78 18 8,201.93 12.93 7,750.84
April 33.87 18.10 19,720.68 18 9,060.12 16.18 10,660.56
May 33.28 18.71 20,380.10 19 8,216.62 14.28 12,163.49
June 31.06 20.20 18,663.53 18 8,091.47 13.06 10,572.05
July 30.72 21.14 17,324.20 18 8,182.48 12.66 9,141.72
August 29.51 22.38 17,163.67 18 8,296.20 11.98 8,867.47
September 29.51 24.83 16,942.31 18 8,359.78 11.82 8,582.53
October 29.13 26.03 16,306.65 17 8,100.56 11.78 8,206.09
November 31.16 26.67 18,288.13 2 1,344.00 29.16 16,944.13 32 16,689.72
December 29.15 24.46 17,019.88 2 1,344.00 27.15 15,675.88 32 15,548.29
 11

2023
January 30.42 21.20 17,061.89 2 1,344.00 28.42 15,717.89 32 15,586.10
February 31.13 20.32 16,406.57 2 1,344.00 29.13 15,062.57 32 14,996.31
March 32.31 20.05 17,412.78 2 1,344.00 30.31 16,068.78 32 15,901.91
April 35.48 19.54 21,525.53 2 1,344.00 33.48 20,181.53 32 19,603.37
May 34.86 20.20 22,245.30 2 1,344.00 32.86 20,901.30 32 20,251.17
June 32.53 21.81 20,371.62 2 1,344.00 30.53 19,027.62 32 18,564.86
July 32.18 22.83 18,909.72 2 1,344.00 30.18 17,565.72 32 17,249.15
August 30.91 24.17 18,734.50 2 1,344.00 28.91 17,390.50 32 17,091.45
September 30.90 26.81 18,492.88 2 1,344.00 28.90 17,148.88 32 16,873.99
October 30.51 28.11 17,799.05 2 1,344.00 28.51 16,455.05 32 16,249.54
November 32.63 28.79 19,961.87 2 1,344.00 30.63 18,617.87 32 18,196.08
December 30.53 26.41 18,577.55 2 1,344.00 28.53 17,233.55 32 16,950.20
2024
January 31.78 22.89 18,598.44 2 1,344.00 29.78 17,254.44 32 16,969.00
February 32.52 21.93 17,884.10 2 1,344.00 30.52 16,540.10 32 16,326.09
March 33.75 21.64 18,980.94 2 1,344.00 31.75 17,636.94 32 17,313.25
April 37.06 21.09 23,464.07 2 1,344.00 35.06 22,120.07 32 21,348.06
May 36.42 21.80 24,248.67 2 1,344.00 34.42 22,904.67 32 22,054.20
June 33.98 23.54 22,206.24 2 1,344.00 31.98 20,862.24 32 20,216.02
July 33.62 24.64 20,612.69 2 1,344.00 31.62 19,268.69 32 18,781.82
August 32.29 26.09 20,421.69 2 1,344.00 30.29 19,077.69 32 18,609.92
September 32.28 28.94 20,158.30 2 1,344.00 30.28 18,814.30 32 18,372.87
October 31.87 30.34 19,401.99 2 1,344.00 29.87 18,057.99 32 17,692.19
November 34.09 31.08 21,759.59 2 1,344.00 32.09 20,415.59 32 19,814.03
December 31.89 28.51 20,250.60 2 1,344.00 29.89 18,906.60 32 18,455.94
2025
January 33.12 24.69 20,240.96 2 1,344.00 31.12 18,896.96 32 18,447.27
February 33.89 23.65 19,463.54 2 1,344.00 31.89 18,119.54 32 17,747.59
March 35.18 23.34 20,657.24 2 1,344.00 33.18 19,313.24 32 18,821.92
April 38.62 22.75 25,536.30 2 1,344.00 36.62 24,192.30 32 23,213.07
May 37.96 23.52 26,390.19 2 1,344.00 35.96 25,046.19 32 23,981.57
June 35.42 25.40 24,167.39 2 1,344.00 33.42 22,823.39 32 21,981.05
July 35.04 26.58 22,433.10 2 1,344.00 33.04 21,089.10 32 20,420.19
August 33.65 28.14 22,225.23 2 1,344.00 31.65 20,881.23 32 20,233.11
September 33.65 31.21 21,938.59 2 1,344.00 31.65 20,594.59 32 19,975.13
October 33.21 32.73 21,115.48 2 1,344.00 31.21 19,771.48 32 19,234.33
November 35.53 33.53 23,681.30 2 1,344.00 33.53 22,337.30 32 21,543.57
December 33.24 30.75 22,039.04 2 1,344.00 31.24 20,695.04 32 20,065.54
2026
January 34.44 26.60 21,989.46 2 1,344.00 32.44 20,645.46 32 20,020.91
February 35.25 25.49 21,144.88 2 1,344.00 33.25 19,800.88 32 19,260.79
March 36.58 25.16 22,441.70 2 1,344.00 34.58 21,097.70 32 20,427.93
April 40.16 24.52 27,742.22 2 1,344.00 38.16 26,398.22 32 25,198.40
May 39.47 25.34 28,669.88 2 1,344.00 37.47 27,325.88 32 26,033.29
June 36.83 27.37 26,255.07 2 1,344.00 34.83 24,911.07 32 23,859.96
July 36.43 28.64 24,370.96 2 1,344.00 34.43 23,026.96 32 22,164.27
August 34.99 30.32 24,145.13 2 1,344.00 32.99 22,801.13 32 21,961.02
September 34.99 33.64 23,833.73 2 1,344.00 32.99 22,489.73 32 21,680.76
October 34.54 35.27 22,939.52 2 1,344.00 32.54 21,595.52 32 20,875.97
November 36.95 36.13 25,726.98 2 1,344.00 34.95 24,382.98 32 23,384.68
December 34.56 33.14 23,942.86 2 1,344.00 32.56 22,598.86 32 21,778.97
2027
January 35.74 28.69 23,986.85 2 1,344.00 33.74 22,642.85 32 21,818.56
February 36.58 27.49 23,065.55 2 1,344.00 34.58 21,721.55 32 20,989.39
March 37.96 27.13 24,480.16 2 1,344.00 35.96 23,136.16 32 22,262.55
April 41.68 26.45 30,262.16 2 1,344.00 39.68 28,918.16 32 27,466.34
May 40.96 27.33 31,274.07 2 1,344.00 38.96 29,930.07 32 28,377.07
June 38.22 29.52 28,639.92 2 1,344.00 36.22 27,295.92 32 26,006.32
July 37.81 30.89 26,584.67 2 1,344.00 35.81 25,240.67 32 24,156.60
August 36.32 32.71 26,338.33 2 1,344.00 34.32 24,994.33 32 23,934.89
September 36.31 36.28 25,998.64 2 1,344.00 34.31 24,654.64 32 23,629.18
October 35.84 38.04 25,023.20 2 1,344.00 33.84 23,679.20 32 22,751.28
November 38.34 38.97 28,063.86 2 1,344.00 36.34 26,719.86 32 25,487.87
December 35.87 35.74 26,117.68 2 1,344.00 33.87 24,773.68 32 23,736.31