A Discounted Cash Flow Model

on

Made By :-
Bhavuk Garg
1.Input -->
P&L Assumptions
Case Scenarios
Case 1: Optimistic Case
Case 2: Base Case
Selected Case : 1 Case 3: Worst Case

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23

Rs. in Crores Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
Revenue from sales and services 44995.65 45619.70 45485.11 45939.9611 46399.360711
y-o-y growth% - 1.39% -0.30% 1.00% 1.00%
Case 1 1.00% 1.00%
Case 2 0.50% 0.50%
Case 3 0.00% 0.00%
Other Revenue 2484.54 3013.66 3250.99 3250.99 3250.99
y-o-y growth% - 21.30% 7.88% 0.00% 0.00%
Case 1 0.00% 0.00%
Case 2 0.00% 0.00%
Case 3 0.00% 0.00%
Cost of Goods Sold (18313.03) (18281.68) (19974.61) (17916.58) (18095.75)
% of Revenues -40.70% -40.07% -43.91% -39.00% -39.00%
Case 1 -39.00% -39.00%
Case 2 -42.00% -42.00%
Case 3 -45.00% -45.00%
Operating Expenses (9377.11) (9433.77) (9988.04) (8269.19) (8351.88)
% of Revenues -20.84% -20.68% -21.96% -18.00% -18.00%
Case 1 -18.00% -18.00%
Case 2 -21.00% -21.00%
Case 3 -24.00% -24.00%
D&A (1311.70) (1563.27) (1561.83) (918.80) (927.99)
% of Revenues -2.92% -3.43% -3.43% -2.00% -2.00%
Case 1 -2.00% -2.00%
Case 2 -3.00% -3.00%
Case 3 -4.00% -4.00%
Finance Costs (34.19) (55.72) (47.47) (47.47) (47.47)
y-o-y growth% - 62.97% -14.81% 0.00% 0.00%
Case 1 0.00% 0.00%
Case 2 0.00% 0.00%
Case 3 0.00% 0.00%
Taxes (5979.84) (4030.76) (4229.66)
% of EBT -32.42% -20.89% -24.64% -20.00% -20.00%
Case 1 -20.00% -20.00%
Case 2 -26.00% -26.00%
Case 3 -32.00% -32.00%
se Scenarios
se 1: Optimistic Case
se 2: Base Case
se 3: Worst Case

FY24 FY25 FY26

Forecast Forecast Forecast
46863.35431811 47331.98786129 47805.3077399
1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3250.99 3250.99 3250.99
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
(18276.71) (18459.48) (18644.07)
-39.00% -39.00% -39.00%
-39.00% -39.00% -39.00%
-42.00% -42.00% -42.00%
-45.00% -45.00% -45.00%
(8435.40) (8519.76) (8604.96)
-18.00% -18.00% -18.00%
-18.00% -18.00% -18.00%
-21.00% -21.00% -21.00%
-24.00% -24.00% -24.00%
(937.27) (946.64) (956.11)
-2.00% -2.00% -2.00%
-2.00% -2.00% -2.00%
-3.00% -3.00% -3.00%
-4.00% -4.00% -4.00%
(47.47) (47.47) (47.47)
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

-20.00% -20.00% -20.00%

-20.00% -20.00% -20.00%
-26.00% -26.00% -26.00%
-32.00% -32.00% -32.00%
Balance Sheet Assumptions

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23

Rs. in Crores Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
Trade Receivables 3646.22 2092.00 2090.35 2110.69 2131.79
Days Receivales (DSO) 29.17 16.51 16.54 16.54 16.54

Inventory 7587.24 8038.07 9470.87 8494.95 8579.90

Days Inventory (DIO) 149.15 158.28 170.69 170.69 170.69

Trade Payables 3368.28 3446.74 4119.53 3695.30 3732.25

Days Payables (DPO) 66.21 67.87 74.25 74.25 74.25

PP&E 32017.10 33068.33 37731.84 34699.56 35046.55

as a % of revenues 71.16% 72.49% 82.95% 75.53% 75.53%

Other Assets 4269.75 1975.11 2033.28 2800.65 2828.66

as a % of revenues 9.49% 4.33% 4.47% 6.10% 6.10%

Other Liabilities 2218.68 2111.16 2396.51 2270.57 2293.27

as a % of revenues 4.93% 4.63% 5.27% 4.94% 4.94%
 FY24 FY25 FY26
Forecast Forecast Forecast
2153.11 2174.64 2196.39
16.54 16.54 16.54

8665.70 8752.36 8839.88

170.69 170.69 170.69

3769.57 3807.27 3845.34

74.25 74.25 74.25

35397.02 35750.99 36108.50

75.53% 75.53% 75.53%

2856.94 2885.51 2914.37

6.10% 6.10% 6.10%

2316.20 2339.37 2362.76

4.94% 4.94% 4.94%
2.Output -->
Profit and Loss

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

Rs. in Crores Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast
Revenue from sales and services 44995.65 45619.7 45485.11 45939.9611 46399.3607 46863.3543
Other Revenue 2484.54 3013.66 3250.99 3250.99 3250.99 3250.99
Revenue 47480.19 48633.36 48736.10 49190.95 49650.35 50114.34

Cost of Goods Sold (18313.03) (18281.68) (19974.61) (17916.58) (18095.75) (18276.71)

Gross Margin 29167.16 30351.68 28761.49 31274.37 31554.60 31837.64

Operating Expenses (9377.11) (9433.77) (9988.04) (8269.19) (8351.88) (8435.40)

EBITDA 19790.05 20917.91 18773.45 23005.17 23202.72 23402.23

D&A (1311.70) (1563.27) (1561.83) (918.80) (927.99) (937.27)

EBIT 18478.35 19354.64 17211.62 22086.37 22274.73 22464.97

Finance Costs (34.19) (55.72) (47.47) (47.47) (47.47) (47.47)

EBT 18444.16 19298.92 17164.15 22038.90 22227.26 22417.50

Tax Rate 32.42% 20.89% 24.64% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00%

Taxes (5979.84) (4030.76) (4229.66) (4407.78) (4445.45) (4483.50)

Net Income 12464.32 15268.16 12934.49 17631.12 17781.81 17934.00

 FY25 FY26
Forecast Forecast
47331.9879 47805.3077
3250.99 3250.99
50582.98 51056.30

(18459.48) (18644.07)
32123.50 32412.23

(8519.76) (8604.96)
23603.74 23807.27

(946.64) (956.11)

22657.11 22851.17

(47.47) (47.47)

22609.64 22803.70

20.00% 20.00%
(4521.93) (4560.74)

18087.71 18242.96
Balance Sheet

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

Rs. in Crores Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast
PP&E 32017.10 33068.33 37731.84 34699.56 35046.55 35397.02
Intangble Assets 540.75 519.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Financial Assets 3391.47 3161.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Assets 4269.75 1975.11 2033.28 2800.65 2828.66 2856.94
Inventory 7587.24 8038.07 9470.87 8494.95 8579.90 8665.70
Trade Receivables 3646.22 2092.00 2090.35 2110.69 2131.79 2153.11
Cash And Cash Equivalents 3768.73 6843.27 4001.50 24302.94 41663.35 59171.73
Other Current Assets 14576.66 19537.46 16252.70 16252.70 16252.70 16252.70
Total Assets 69797.92 75235.36 71580.54 88661.49 106502.95 124497.20

Shareholder's Funds 57949.79 64029.16 59004.58 76635.70 94417.51 112351.51

Long Term Borrowings 7.89 5.63 5.28 5.28 5.28 5.28
Other Liabilities 2218.68 2111.16 2396.51 2270.57 2293.27 2316.20
Trade Payables 3368.28 3446.74 4119.53 3695.30 3732.25 3769.57
Other Current Liabilities 6253.28 5642.67 6054.64 6054.64 6054.64 6054.64
Total Liabilities 69797.92 75235.36 71580.54 88661.49 106502.95 124497.20

Check 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 FY25 FY26
Forecast Forecast Note
35750.99 36108.50
0.00 0.00 Flat
0.00 0.00 Flat
2885.51 2914.37
8752.36 8839.88
2174.64 2196.39
76829.57 94638.36
16252.70 16252.70 Flat
142645.77 160950.19

130439.21 148682.17 Last year equity + Net Income

5.28 5.28 No additional debt
2339.37 2362.76
3807.27 3845.34
6054.64 6054.64 Flat
142645.77 160950.19

0.00 0.00
Cash Flow

FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23

Rs. in Crores Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
EBIT 19354.64 17211.62 22086.37 22274.73
Operating Taxes (4042.40) (4241.36) (4417.27) (4454.95)
Operating Tax Rate 20.89% 24.64% 20.00% 20.00%
NOPAT 15312.24 12970.26 17669.10 17819.78
Add-back D&A 1563.27 1561.83 918.80 927.99
Gross Cash Flow 16875.51 14532.09 18587.90 18747.77
Inventory (450.83) (1432.80) 975.92 (84.95)
Trade Receivables 1554.22 1.65 (20.34) (21.11)
Trade Payables 78.46 672.79 (424.23) 36.95
Investment in Working Capital 1181.85 (758.36) 531.35 (69.10)
Other Assets (4709.70) 6965.88 0.00 0.00
Investment in Other Assets/Liabilities 2187.12 227.18 (893.31) (5.30)
Capex (2614.50) (6225.34) 2113.48 (1274.98)
UFCF 12920.28 14741.45 20339.42 17398.38
Finance Costs (55.72) (47.47) (47.47) (47.47)
Delta Taxes vs. Operating Taxes 11.64 11.70 9.49 9.49
Delta Financial Liabilities (612.87) 411.62 0.00 0.00
Delta Equity (inc. dividend) (9188.79) (17959.07) 0.00 0.00
Net Cash Flow 3074.54 (2841.77) 20301.44 17360.41

Opening Cash 3768.73 6843.27 4001.50 24302.94

Closing Cash 6843.27 4001.50 24302.94 41663.35

Check 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 FY24 FY25 FY26
Forecast Forecast Forecast Note
22464.97 22657.11 22851.17
(4492.99) (4531.42) (4570.23)
20.00% 20.00% 20.00%
17971.97 18125.68 18280.93
937.27 946.64 956.11
18909.24 19072.32 19237.04 1)
(85.80) (86.66) (87.52)
(21.32) (21.53) (21.75)
37.32 37.70 38.07
(69.79) (70.49) (71.20) 2)
0.00 0.00 0.00 3)
(5.35) (5.41) (5.46) 4)
(1287.73) (1300.61) (1313.62) 5)
17546.36 17695.81 17846.76 1) + 2) + 3) + 4) + 5)
(47.47) (47.47) (47.47) 6)
9.49 9.49 9.49 7)
0.00 0.00 0.00 8)
0.00 0.00 0.00 9)
17508.38 17657.84 17808.79 1) + 2) + 3) + 4) + 5) + 6) + 7) + 8) + 9)

41663.35 59171.73 76829.57

59171.73 76829.57 94638.36

0.00 0.00 0.00

DCF Valuation

WACC 12.35%
g 2.50%
1 2
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Rs. in Crores Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
UFCF 12920.2824 14741.4522 20339.42 17398.3825
Discount Factor 0.89 0.79
Present Value of UFCF 18103.6226 13783.6019

DCF Valuation
PV of Cash Flows 65336.52 38.64% of Enterprise Value
Continuing Value 185715.06
PV of Continuing Value 103748.479 61.36% of Enterprise Value
Enterprise Value 169085
Financial Liabilities (6059.92)
Cash 4001.50 WACC
Equity Value 167026.579 169085 11%
0.50%
1.50%
g
2.50%
3.50%
 3 4 5
FY24 FY25 FY26
Forecast Forecast Forecast
17546.3584 17695.8141 17846.7643
0.71 0.63 0.56
12372.7935 11106.5261 9969.97581

WACC
12.35% 13% 14%
3.Charts -->
Revenue & EBITDA

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23

Rs. in Crores Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
Revenue 44995.65 45619.7 45485.11 45939.9611 46399.3607
EBITDA 19790.05 20917.91 18773.45 23005.17 23202.72
EBITDA% 44% 46% 41% 50.1% 50.0%

60000

50000 Historical figures Forecast period

50% 50% 50% 50%

40000 46%
44%
41%
Rs. in Crores

30000

44995.65 45619.7 45485.11 45939.9611 46399.360711 46863.35431811 47331.98786129

20000

10000

0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast

Revenue EBITDA%
 FY24 FY25 FY26
Forecast Forecast Forecast
46863.3543 47331.9879 47805.3077
23402.23 23603.74 23807.27
49.9% 49.9% 49.8%

70%

Forecast period 60%

50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

40%

30%
.360711 46863.35431811 47331.9878612911 47805.307739904

20%

10%

0%
3 FY24 FY25 FY26
ecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Cash Flows

FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26

Rs. in Crores Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
UFCF 20339.42 17398.3825 17546.3584 17695.8141 17846.7643
Present value of UFCF 18103.6226 13783.6019 12372.7935 11106.5261 9969.97581

25000

20000

15000
Rs. in Crores

10000

5000

0
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast

Present value of UFCF UFCF

FY25 FY26
Forecast Forecast
Working Capital

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23

Rs. in Crores Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
Inventory 7587.24 8038.07 9470.87 8494.95 8579.90
Trade receivable 3646.22 2092.00 2090.35 2110.69 2131.79
Trade payable 3368.28 3446.74 4119.53 3695.30 3732.25
Working capital 14601.74 13576.81 15680.75 14300.93 14443.94

DSO 29.17 16.51 16.54 16.54 16.54

DIO 149.15 158.28 170.69 170.69 170.69
DPO 66.21 67.87 74.25 74.25 74.25

FY19-FY26: Working capital development

200.00 Historical figures Forecast period 20000.

170.69 170.69 170.69 170.69 170.69 170.69

150.00 158.28
149.15 15000.
Rs. in Crores

100.00

67.87 74.25 74.25 74.25 74.25 74.25 74.2510000.

50.00 66.21
29.17
16.51 16.54 16.54 16.54 16.54 16.54 16.54

0.00 5000.0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26
Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast

Working Capital DSO DIO DPO

 FY24 FY25 FY26
Forecast Forecast Forecast
8665.70 8752.36 8839.88
2153.11 2174.64 2196.39
3769.57 3807.27 3845.34
14588.38 14734.26 14881.61

16.54 16.54 16.54

170.69 170.69 170.69
74.25 74.25 74.25

t period 20000.00

0.69 170.69 170.69

15000.00
Daya

74.25 74.25 74.2510000.00

16.54 16.54

5000.00
4 FY25 FY26
ecast Forecast Forecast
 EBITDA Bridge

EBITDA FY21 18773.45

Delta Revenues 454.8511

Delta Cogs 2058.02517
Delta Opex 1718.847
EBITDA FY22 23005.17

25,000

22,500 947
20,000
455
17,500

15,000

12,500
23,005
10,000
18,773
7,500

5,000

2,500

0
-2,058
-2,500
EBITDA FY21 Delta Revenues Delta Cogs Delta Opex EBITDA FY
 18773.5 18773.5 21286.3 21286.3
0 454.9 (2058.0) 1718.8 23005.2
EBITDA Delta Delta Cogs Delta Opex EBITDA FY22
FY21 Revenues

947

23,005

elta Opex EBITDA FY22

DCF Results

Scenario 1
Enterprise Value 169,085
CFs in Forecast period 38.64%
Continuing Value 61.36%

Enterprise Value: Scenario 1 Enterprise Value: Scenario 2

38.6% CFs in Forecast period 39.0%

Rs.169085
Rs.169085 cr.
cr. Continuing Value
Rs.132674
Rs.132674 cr.
cr.
61.4% 61.0%
Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Enterprise Value 132,674 Enterprise Value
CFs in Forecast period 38.99% CFs in Forecast period
Continuing Value 61.01% Continuing Value

Enterprise Value: Scenario 2 Enterprise Value: Scenario 3

39.0% 39.4%
CFs in Forecast period Rs.101241 CFs
Rs.132674 Rs.101241 cr.
cr.
Rs.132674 cr.
cr. Continuing Value Cont
61.0% 60.7%
 101,241
39.35%
60.65%

cenario 3

39.4%
1241 CFs in Forecast period
1241 cr.
cr. Continuing Value
4.Sources -->
Profit and Loss

2019 2020 2021

Rs. in Crores Mar Mar Mar
Revenue from sales and services 44995.65 45619.70 45485.11
Other Revenue 2484.54 3013.66 3250.99
Revenue 47480.19 48633.36 48736.10

Manufacturing Expenses (714.88) (744.55) 0.00

Materials Consumed (17598.15) (17537.13) (19974.61)
Personal Expenses (2728.44) (2658.21) (2820.95)
Selling Expenses (976.53) (979.71) 0.00
Administrative Expenses (5672.14) (5795.85) (7167.09)

EBITDA 19790.05 20917.91 18773.45

D&A (1311.70) (1563.27) (1561.83)

EBIT 18478.35 19354.64 17211.62

Finance Costs (34.19) (55.72) (47.47)

EBT 18444.16 19298.92 17164.15

Tax (5979.84) (4030.76) (4229.66)

Net Income 12464.32 15268.16 12934.49

Balance Sheet

31Mar19 31Mar20 31Mar21

Rs. in Crores

NON-CURRENT ASSETS
PP&E 32,017.10 33,068.33 37,731.84
Intangble Assets 540.75 519.45 -
Financial Assets 3,391.47 3,161.67
Fixed assets 35,949.32 36,749.45 37,731.84

Other Assets 4,269.75 1,975.11 2,033.28

Total Non-Current Assets 40,219.07 38,724.56 39,765.12

CURRENT ASSETS
Inventories 7,587.24 8,038.07 9,470.87
Trade Receivables 3,646.22 2,092.00 2,090.35
Cash And Cash Equivalents 3,768.73 6,843.27 4,001.50
Other Current Assets 14,576.66 19,537.46 16,252.70
Total Current Assets 29,578.85 36,510.80 31,815.42

Total Assets 69,797.92 75,235.36 71,580.54

 31Mar19 31Mar20 31Mar21
Rs. in Crores

SHAREHOLDER'S FUNDS
Shareholder's Funds 57,949.79 64,029.16 59,004.58

Total Shareholder Funds 57,949.79 64,029.16 59,004.58

NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES
Long Term Borrowings 7.89 5.63 5.28
Other Liabilities 2,218.68 2,111.16 2,396.51
Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,226.57 2,116.79 2,401.79

CURRENT LIABILITIES
Trade Payables 3,368.28 3,446.74 4,119.53
Other Current Liabilities 6253.28 5642.67 6054.64

Total Current Liabilities 9,621.56 9,089.41 10,174.17

Total Capital and Liabilities 69,797.92 75,235.36 71,580.54