June 2010

Resale housing forecast revised
OTTAWA – June 2, 2010 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has lowered its
forecast for home sales via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real
estate Boards and Associations. The revision reflects a weaker than expected start to the year in
British Columbia, and recent developments that pulled forward the timing as to when sales are
expected to ease in other provinces.
CREA’s previous national forecast was heavily influenced by British Columbia and Ontario
forecast trends, and this remains the case in the revised forecast. While sales activity is unfolding
as expected in Ontario, the decline in affordability in British Columbia impacted sales in the
province during the first quarter.
Additionally, changes to mortgage regulations announced in February are expected to marginally

impact activity. The changes prompted some homebuyers to finance their home purchase before
the new regulations took effect in April, which pulled forward a number of sales that would have
otherwise taken place at a later date.
April also saw the Bank of Canada drop its conditional commitment to keep interest rates on hold
until at least July, opening the door to an interest rate hike before then. Indeed, on June 1st, the
Bank announced its decision to raise its trendsetting overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to a
½ a per cent, and indicated it expects the rate of growth to slow for consumer spending.
“Interest rates are expected to rise slowly and at a measured pace during a new era of
government spending restraint, so home financing will remain within reach for many
homebuyers,” said CREA President Georges Pahud.
CREA had previously forecasted sales would remain at elevated levels through the first half of
2010 before easing in the second half of the year and over 2011. While the forecasted trend for
activity has not changed in CREA’s revised forecast, it has been pulled forward, with the fourth
quarter of 2009 marking the peak of national activity. This has had the effect of lowering the
forecast for national activity over the rest of the year and in 2011.
National activity is forecast to reach 490,600 units in 2010, up 5.5 per cent from 2009 and the
second highest annual level on record. Lower expected activity in British Columbia accounts for
more than half of the downward revision in national sales activity. Annual activity in Alberta was
also revised downward due to weaker than expected activity in the first quarter. Ontario is still
expected to see a record number of sales in 2010, but by a smaller margin than previously
forecast.
Interest rate increases will contribute to weaker national sales activity in 2011. Transactions via
the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards are forecast to decline 8.5 per cent to
448,700 units in 2011. Although this is a similar percentage decline compared to CREA’s
previous forecast (-7.1 per cent), the downward revision in national activity levels for 2010 means
that the forecast level for sales activity in 2011 has also been revised downward.
The national average home price is forecast to climb 1.6 per cent in 2010, reaching a record
$325,400, with average price gains forecast in all provinces. The downward revision from the
previously forecast 5.4 per cent gain reflects lower forecast sales activity in British Columbia,
where most transactions are priced well above the national average.
All provinces are forecast to post modest average price gains in 2011, except British Columbia
and Ontario. The forecast decline in activity is sharpest in these two provinces, with higher-priced
transactions weakening most. Average prices are forecast to sag in these two provinces in the
second half of 2010 before stabilizing next year. As the Ontario and British Columbia shares of
national activity edge lower, there will be fewer higher priced properties in the calculation of the
national average price. The national average price is forecast to decline by 2.2 per cent in 2011
as a result.
“With interest rates soon expected to rise, Canada is widely believed to be entering a typical
demand-driven downturn due to recent prices increases and rising interest rates,” said Chief
Economist Gregory Klump. “A downward trend in national sales activity combined with an
increase in listings will result in a more balanced market.”
“In keeping with the return of a balanced housing market and typical demand-driven housing
market cycle dynamics, prices will remain stable,” he said. “Canada’s solid mortgage market
trends, conservative lending practices, and prudent borrowing by homebuyers means that
Canada will avoid the massive realignment in housing supply and demand being experienced in
the United States. Accordingly, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing price correction.”
CREA Residential Market Forecast:

2009 Annual 2010 Annual 2011 Annual
Residential unit sales 2010 2011
2009 percentage percentage percentage
forecast Forecast Forecast
change change change
Canada 465,082 7.7 490,600 5.5 448,700 -8.5

British Columbia 85,028 23.4 80,000 -5.9 71,500 -10.6
Alberta 57,543 2.7 55,900 -2.9 55,400 -0.9
Saskatchewan 11,095 5.3 11,050 -0.4 10,900 -1.4
Manitoba 13,086 -3.2 13,150 0.5 13,050 -0.8
Ontario 195,840 8.2 215,400 10.0 188,200 -12.6
Quebec 79,125 3.1 89,300 12.9 84,250 -5.7
New Brunswick 7,003 -7.3 7,650 9.2 7,450 -2.6
Nova Scotia 10,021 -7.8 10,650 6.3 10,350 -2.8
Prince Edward Island 1,404 -0.6 1,500 6.8 1,480 -1.3
Newfoundland 4,416 -5.9 5,350 21.2 5,650 5.6
2009 Annual 2010 Annual 2011 Annual
Residential average 2010 2011
2009 percentage percentage percentage
price forecast Forecast Forecast
change change change
Canada 320,333 5.0 325,400 1.6 318,300 -2.2

British Columbia 465,725 2.4 476,400 2.3 459,800 -3.5
Alberta 341,201 -3.3 348,400 2.1 350,800 0.7
Saskatchewan 233,695 4.1 240,200 2.8 242,900 1.1
Manitoba 201,343 5.8 209,800 4.2 215,600 2.8
Ontario 318,366 5.3 330,900 3.9 320,100 -3.3
Quebec 225,412 4.7 229,900 2.0 237,000 3.1
New Brunswick 154,906 6.3 157,200 1.5 159,900 1.7
Nova Scotia 196,690 3.6 201,900 2.6 204,700 1.4
Prince Edward Island 146,044 4.4 149,900 2.6 151,300 0.9
Newfoundland 206,374 15.6 224,400 8.7 233,800 4.2
About The Canadian Real Estate Association

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada's largest single-industry trade associations,
representing more than 99,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100
real estate Boards and Associations.
For more information, please contact:

Alyson Fair
613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
Email: [email protected]

June 2010

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

June 2010

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

June 2010

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Resale housing forecast revised

Additionally, changes to mortgage regulations announced in February are expected to marginally

CREA Residential Market Forecast:

Canada 465,082 7.7 490,600 5.5 448,700 -8.5

Canada 320,333 5.0 325,400 1.6 318,300 -2.2

About The Canadian Real Estate Association

For more information, please contact:

You might also like