Demand Forecasting Analysis

Raw Data
Month 2011 2012 2013

January 480 575 608
February 436 527 597 700
March 482 540 612 600
April 448 502 603
500
sales
May 458 508 628
June 489 573 605 400
July 498 508 627
300
August 430 498 578
September 444 485 585 200
October 496 526 581 100
November 487 552 632
0
December 525 587 656 January February Ma
Total 5673 6381 7312
Sales Data
700
600
500
sales
400
300
200
100
0
January February March April May June July August September October NovemberDecember
Months
2011 2012 2013
Month 2011 2012 2013 FORECASTED 2012 FORECASTED 2013
January 480 575 608 472.75 502.25
February 436 527 597 472.145833333333 502.25
March 482 540 612 475.157986111111 523.625
April 448 502 603 474.587818287037 522.260416666667
May 458 508 628 476.803469810957 523.948784722222
June 489 573 605 478.370425628537 525.277850115741
July 498 508 627 477.484627764248 521.301004292053
August 430 498 578 475.775013411269 522.40942131639
September 444 485 585 479.589597862208 524.443539759423
October 496 526 581 482.555397684058 527.730501406041
November 487 552 632 481.43501415773 527.874709856545
December 525 587 656 480.97126533754 525.864269011257
Total 5673 6381 7312
FORECASTED 2014 MAD1 MAD2 RMSE RMSE2 MAPE MAPE2
537.944444444444 102.25 105.75 10455.06 11183.06 0.177826 0.173931
537.944444444444 54.85417 94.75 3008.98 8977.563 0.104088 0.15871
537.944444444444 64.84201 88.375 4204.487 7810.141 0.120078 0.144404
537.944444444444 27.41218 80.73958 751.4277 6518.88 0.054606 0.133896
537.944444444445 31.19653 104.0512 973.2235 10826.66 0.06141 0.165687
537.944444444445 94.62957 79.72215 8954.756 6355.621 0.165148 0.131772
537.944444444445 30.51537 105.699 931.1879 11172.28 0.06007 0.168579
537.944444444445 22.22499 55.59058 493.95 3090.312 0.044628 0.096177
537.944444444445 5.410402 60.55646 29.27245 3667.085 0.011155 0.103515
537.944444444445 43.4446 53.2695 1887.433 2837.639 0.082594 0.091686
537.944444444445 70.56499 104.1253 4979.417 10842.08 0.127835 0.164755
537.944444444445 106.0287 130.1357 11242.09 16935.31 0.180628 0.198378
54.4478 88.56371 63.18708 91.38591 10% 14%
MOVING AVERA
Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6 Column7 Column8
Moving average
Quaterly
Month 2011 2012 2013 2011(FORECASTED) MAD RMSE MAPE(2011)
January 480 575 608 480 0 0 0
February 436 527 597 436 0 0 0
March 482 540 612 482 0 0 0
April 448 502 603 466 18 324 0.04017857
May 458 508 628 455.333333333333 2.66666667 7.11111111 0.00582242
June 489 573 605 462.666666666667 26.3333333 693.444444 0.0538514
July 498 508 627 465 33 1089 0.06626506
August 430 498 578 481.666666666667 51.6666667 2669.44444 0.12015504
September 444 485 585 472.333333333333 28.3333333 802.777778 0.06381381
October 496 526 581 457.333333333333 38.6666667 1495.11111 0.07795699
November 487 552 632 456.666666666667 30.3333333 920.111111 0.06228611
December 525 587 656 475.666666666667 49.3333333 2433.77778 0.09396825
30.9259259 34.0502533 5%
VING AVERAGE METHOD
Column9 Column10 Column11 Column12 Column13 Column14 Column15
2012(FORECASTED) MAD RMSE MAPE(2012) 2013(FORECASTED) MAD RMSE

502.666666666667 72.33333333 5232.111111 0.125797101 555 53 2809
529 2 4 0.003795066 582.333333333333 14.66666667 215.11111111
542.333333333333 2.333333333 5.444444444 0.004320988 597.333333333333 14.66666667 215.11111111
547.333333333333 45.33333333 2055.111111 0.090305445 605.666666666667 2.666666667 7.1111111111
523 15 225 0.029527559 604 24 576
516.666666666667 56.33333333 3173.444444 0.098312973 614.333333333333 9.333333333 87.111111111
527.666666666667 19.66666667 386.7777778 0.038713911 612 15 225
529.666666666667 31.66666667 1002.777778 0.063587684 620 42 1764
526.333333333333 41.33333333 1708.444444 0.085223368 603.333333333333 18.33333333 336.11111111
497 29 841 0.05513308 596.666666666667 15.66666667 245.44444444
503 49 2401 0.088768116 581.333333333333 50.66666667 2567.1111111
521 66 4356 0.112436116 599.333333333333 56.66666667 3211.1111111
35.83333333 42.22076021 7% 26.38888889 31.961203333
Column16 Column17
MAPE(2013) 2014(FORECASTED)
0.0871710526 623
0.0245672808 637
0.0239651416 638.666666666667
0.0044223328 632.888888888889
0.0382165605 636.185185185185
0.0154269972 635.913580246914
0.023923445 634.995884773663
0.0726643599 635.698216735254
0.0313390313 635.53589391861
0.0269650029 635.409998475842
0.0801687764 635.548036376569
0.0863821138 635.497976257007
4%
WEIGHTED AVERAGE
SNO. 2011 value x weight 2012 jan- Forecasted 2012- Actual MAD
1 480 6.1538461538462 478.884615384615 575 96.11538
2 436 11.179487179487 492.615384615385 527 34.38462
3 482 18.538461538462 497.2 540 42.8
4 448 22.974358974359 502.55 502 0.55
5 458 29.358974358974 502.485294117647 508 5.514706
6 489 37.615384615385 503.098039215686 573 69.90196
7 498 44.692307692308 510.456140350877 508 2.45614
8 430 44.102564102564 510.21052631579 498 12.21053
9 444 51.230769230769 509.047619047619 485 24.04762
10 496 63.589743589744 506.861471861472 526 19.13853
11 487 68.679487179487 508.525691699605 552 43.47431
12 525 80.769230769231 512.148550724638 587 74.85145
575 0 35.45377
RMSE MAPE
9238.167 0.167157
1182.302 0.065246
1831.84 0.079259
0.3025 0.001096
30.41198 0.010856
4886.284 0.121993
6.032625 0.004835
149.097 0.024519
578.288 0.049583
366.2833 0.036385
1890.015 0.078758
5602.739 0.127515
46.33372 6%
EXPONENTIAL SMOO
Assuming previous Forecasting for year MAD for RMSE for
Month 2011 2012
forecasting 2012 year 2012 year 2012
January 480 480 480 575 95 9025

February 436 436 436 527 91 8281
March 482 482 482 540 58 3364
April 448 448 448 502 54 2916
May 458 458 458 508 50 2500
June 489 489 489 573 84 7056
July 498 498 498 508 10 100
August 430 430 430 498 68 4624
September 444 444 444 485 41 1681
October 496 496 496 526 30 900
November 487 487 487 552 65 4225
December 525 525 525 587 62 3844
FINAL 59 63.5846
ENTIAL SMOOTHNING
MAPE for Forecasting for year MAD for MSE for MAPE for Forecasting for year
2013
year 2012 2013 year 2013 year 2013 year 2013 2014
0.165217 608 570 38 1425 0.062089 606

0.172676 597 522 75 5558 0.124874 593
0.107407 612 537 75 5610 0.122386 608
0.10757 603 499 104 10754 0.171973 598
0.098425 628 506 123 15006 0.195064 622
0.146597 605 569 36 1310 0.059835 603
0.019685 627 508 120 14280 0.190590 621
0.136546 578 495 83 6956 0.144291 574
0.084536 585 483 102 10414 0.174444 580
0.057034 581 525 57 3192 0.097246 578
0.117754 632 549 83 6931 0.131725 628
0.105622 656 584 72 5198 0.109909 652
10.992% 81 84.9678 13.204%
DEMAND LT FORECAST SEASONAL FORECAST WITH TREND
1 2011 January 480 446.0975976 459.688302058126
2 February 436 451.34598885 436.290246369767
3 March 482 456.59438009 462.300041562047
4 April 448 461.84277134 444.433640748936
5 May 458 467.09116259 461.350808532674
6 June 489 472.33955384 487.900466539628
7 July 498 477.58794509 483.260010944097
8 August 430 482.83633634 450.574112892196
9 September 444 488.08472758 457.891321427209
10 October 496 493.33311883 490.021474433227
11 November 487 498.58151008 516.242716108357
12 December 525 503.82990133 551.959887773169
13 2012 January 575 509.07829258 524.587752075411
14 February 527 514.32668383 497.170067191755
15 March 540 519.57507508 526.067751320462
16 April 502 524.82346632 505.040282887748
17 May 508 530.07185757 523.557497244371
18 June 573 535.32024882 552.956018661585
19 July 508 540.56864007 546.988695176344
20 August 498 545.81703132 509.346555301115
21 September 485 551.06542257 516.975968045471
22 October 526 556.31381381 552.579392880436
23 November 552 561.56220506 581.454370334986
24 December 587 566.81059631 620.957018038088
25 2013 January 608 572.05898756 589.487202092696
26 February 597 577.30737881 558.049888013742
27 March 612 582.55577006 589.835461078877
28 April 603 587.8041613 565.646925026559
29 May 628 593.05255255 585.764185956069
30 June 605 598.3009438 618.011570783542
31 July 627 603.54933505 610.717379408591
32 August 578 608.7977263 568.118997710034
33 September 585 614.04611755 576.060614663734
34 October 581 619.29450879 615.137311327645
35 November 632 624.54290004 646.666024561615
36 December 656 629.79129129 689.954148303007
INTERCEPT 440.849206349206
SLOPE 5.24839124839125
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
DEMAND LT FORECAST
MONTHS SEASONALITY INDEX

JANUARY 1.03046576474233
FEBRUARY 0.966642569451616
MARCH 1.0124961272333
APRIL 0.962305070742538
MAY 0.98771042032428
JUNE 1.03294433543323
JULY 1.01187648456057
AUGUST 0.933181865124445
SEPTEMBER 0.938139006506248
OCTOBER 0.993287204378808
NOVEMBER 1.03542290612414
DECEMBER 1.0955282453785

Demand Forecasting Analysis

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Raw Data

Month 2011 2012 2013

2012(FORECASTED) MAD RMSE MAPE(2012) 2013(FORECASTED) MAD RMSE

January 480 480 480 575 95 9025

0.165217 608 570 38 1425 0.062089 606

MONTHS SEASONALITY INDEX

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