Six Sigma Quality at Flyrock Tires

Prepared By:
Trevor Cantrell

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 1. If the extruder setting is accurate, what proportion of the rubber extruded will be
within specifications?

Based on the calculations below, the USL is 410 thou and LSL is 390 thou. With a normal
distribution of 400 and standard deviation of 4, we can calculate the number of rubber
extruded we anticipate meeting specifications.

I used the calculation, =NORMDIST (USL,400,4, true) – NORMDIST (LSL,400,4, true),

2. Douglas has asked operators to take a sample of 10 sheets of rubber each hour from
the extruder and measure the thickness of each sheet. Based on the average
thickness of this sample, operators will decide whether the extrusion process is in
control or not. Given that Douglas plans Three Sigma control limits, what upper and
lower control limits should she specify to the operators?

The first step to coming up with the upper and lower control limits is figuring out the
mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution for 10 samples. Since this is a
sample distribution, we will use the term “x-bar” to refer to this specific sample size. To
figure out the standard deviation of the sampling distribution, we have to use the formula,
standard deviation of x-bar equals standard deviation/(square root of number of samples),
so the standard deviation of the sampling distribution is 1.265 (4/square root of 10).

Now that we know the standard deviation of the sampling distribution, we can accurately
calculate the proper upper and lower control limits. The upper control limit is calculated
as follows: 400 plus 3 times 1.265 to equal 403.795, and the lower control limit is
calculated as follows 400 minus 3 times 1.265 to equal 396.205. These are the figures
that need to be specified to the operators for the batch that the samples were pulled from.

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 Based on these samples, we see there is a smaller gap within these samples compared to
the calculations in question one.

3. If a bearing is worn out, the extruder produces a mean thickness of 403 thou when
the settings is 400, thou. Under this condition, what proportion of defective sheets
will the extruder produce? Assuming the control limits in question 2, what is the
probability that a sample taken from the extruder with the worn bearings will be
out of control? On average, how many hours are likely to go by before the worn
bearing is detected?

We are going to use a similar calculation from question one to determine the proportion
of defective sheets. The difference is we are going to change the mean of 400 to 403 as
indicated the snapshot below. By using the normal distribution calculation in excel, we
get .0406 (1-0.9594). If the extruder produces 10,000, there will be 406 defective tires.

The probability of that the extruder with worn bearings will be out of control is found by
finding the proportion with control limits. To find the new UCL and LCL, I am going to
use the z table to find the probability. I used the formula, 403.795-403/1.265, to find the
UCL, and I used, 396.205-403/1.265, to find LCL. The corresponding z score would give
us P(-5.37<z<0.628) which would be 0.7357. Thus, the probability of the extruder with
worn bearings being out of control would be 26.43% (1-0.7357). Based on this
probability there should be about 4 hours (1/.2643=3.78) before the mean shift is
detected. There will be about 1600 defective tire (10,000*4*.0406).

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 4. Now consider the case where extrusion is a Six Sigma process. In this case, the
extruder output should have a standard deviation of 1.667 thou. What proportion of
the rubber extruded will be within specifications in this case?

If I use the Z chart to find the probability of rubber extruded that will be within
specifications, I will get a 100% probability. Using the formula, USL or LSL minus the
mean divided by the standard deviation, I would get a z score of 6 and -6. Thus, I would
be 1.00-0.00 or 100%, so the standard deviation that should have at 1.667 would be
perfect for their scenario.

5. Assuming that operators will continue to take samples of 10 sheets each hour to
check if the process is in control, what control limits should Douglas set for the case
when extrusion is a Six Sigma process?

Similarly to question 2, we need to find the new standard deviation of x-bar. The
difference is we are going to use the 1.667 figure to come up with that number. The
standard deviation of x-bar would be 0.527 (1.667/square root of 10). Again, we will use
the formula of mean + 3 times USL or LSL. I came up with the upper control limit of
401.5815 and a lower control limit of 398.4185.

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 6. Return to the case of the worn bearing in question 3 where extrusion produces a
mean thickness of 403, thou when the setting is 400, thou. Under this condition, what
proportion of defective sheets will the extruder produce (for the Six Sigma process)?
Assuming the control limits in question 5, what is the probability that a sample
taken from the extruder with the worn bearings will be out of control? On average,
how many hours are likely to go by before the worn bearing is detected?

Under the conditions of 403 mean and worn bearings, there will be a zero percent chance
that there will be defective sheets. The calculations below show the z score would give a
0.00 probability of defective sheets. The calculations below show the out-of-control
probability to be 37.83% (1-0.6217). Due to the proportion of defects being 0%, there
should never be a defect in this case.

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