Future Cities Dubai Report
Future Cities Dubai Report
Future Cities Dubai Report
Figure 1. Population growth in Dubai & maps showing the scale of Dubai’s urban growth from 1985 (L) to 2015 (R) Source: UN, Google Earth
High rates of population growth in Dubai over the past three decades have emerged in tandem with economic
diversification away from oil, a multi-decade surge in real estate development driven by Government reforms and
subsequent international migration and investment.
Since 1980, Dubai’s population expanded at an average growth rate of 6% each year, making it one of the fastest
growing cities in the world. In 2020, Dubai’s population exceeded 3 million people, representing a third of the total
population of the United Arab Emirates. 1 The population of the metropolitan area is expected to grow at an average
rate of 1.3% until 2035, which amounts to over 43,000 new residents each year. 2
From 1970 – 2020, the built-up area of Dubai grew from 54km2 in 1975 to over 970km2. It is now home to the
busiest international airport and ninth largest port in the world. Government reforms and policies have incentivised
significant levels of population growth by attracting both highly skilled and lower skilled migrants.
This rate of population and urban expansion creates the challenge for Dubai to identify pathways for more
sustainable and balanced growth. A key imperative for the city is to ensure that the continued supply of high-quality,
low carbon transport infrastructure, continued supply of high-quality, low carbon transport infrastructure, diverse
In the past 10 years, Dubai has risen to the ranks of global cities. The emirate has established itself at the crossroads
of trade, talent and travel corridors. Dubai’s efforts to diversify its economy has contributed to a major increase
in capital flowing to the city, facilitated by business reforms and strong national support. Dubai has cemented its
position in global trade networks. Its port has seen 15m TEUs (Twenty Foot Equivalent) in 2018, a 30% increase
compared to 2010, making Dubai the top 10 busiest port globally. 3
Dubai is also major tourism hub and is the 7th top destination globally by number of international arrivals. 4 Having
taken advantage of its position at the edge of three continents to become a leading interchange destination for long-
haul international travel, its airport also handles 90million passengers yearly and nears full capacity. 5
Burj Khalifa
Palm Jumeirah opens
completed
Major Urban Developments
Dubai consistently ranks among the most diverse cities in the world. It is home to the highest number of expatriates
in the UAE, with only 15% of the population being native residents. 6 The remaining 85% is primarily Asian, with
a large proportion of residents from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Philippines. The large Asian workforce
has been fundamental in construction in Dubai. A small but significant proportion of the non-Emirate population
consists of expatriates from the UK, USA, Canada and Australia, who often occupy professional services and
managerial positions in the city.
Diversified Economy
Over the coming years, Dubai is committed to pro-actively strengthening the resilience of its economy by
diversifying further away from oil towards high growth knowledge sectors and the innovation economy. Dubai has
been reducing its dependency on oil since the 1970s but over the last decade, since the global financial crash,
efforts to transform the economy have intensified. As of 2020, only 1% of Dubai’s GDP was derived from oil,
compared to over 50% five decades ago. 7 In Dubai, sectors ranging from advanced manufacturing to creative
industries have emerged. They benefit from the clustering effect of the 11 Government-owned innovation locations
designed to host similarly specialised firms in close proximity.
In recent years, citizenship, nationality and resident’s rights for expatriates have been a focal point of UAE
Government reforms. In 2019, the UAE introduced long-term residence visas, enabling expatriates to work and
study in Dubai without a national sponsor and own 100% of their businesses on the mainland. This reform is
fundamental to the city’s economic diversification, as it encourages the retention of graduates and highly skilled
talent and emergence of new expatriate-owned businesses. Potential to add new gold visa and the recent
announcement in response to COVID-19 they are offing a one year- virtual work visa.
Dubai’s major economic and business reforms have led to significant improvements in its economic
competitiveness and status as a global hub. Business reforms are also supporting the city’s innovation ecosystem.
Dubai’s global corridor capability remains stable.
Mori Memorial
Mori Memorial INSEAD Global
AT Kearney Z-Yen global Foundation IESE Cities in JLL Global 650:
StartupBlink IMD Smart Foundation Talent Mercer Quality
Global Cities Financial Global Power Motion: Number of air
Stratup Cities Cities Index Global Power Competitiveness of Live Survey
Index Centres City Index: Technology passengers
City Index
Railway Station
Date Jul-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Mar-19
Overall Actual and Size, scale Residents’ Density of City wide Port freight No. of Ingradients Overall
Competitive perceived and growth perception of railway digital flows plus annual air for quality of
ness and strength of trajectory tech stations per technology no. of cities passengers attracting, life
future financial of start-up infrastructure km² adoption and from which retainig
growth industry ecosystem and smart quality of direct and
prospect services to tech cargo growing a
improve infrastructure flights skilled
quality of life depart & talent base
arrive at
city airport
Trend
Sources:
• AT Kearney Global Cities Outlook Index: https://www.kearney.com/documents/20152/2794549/
A+Question+of+Talent%E2%80%942019+Global+Cities+Report.pdf/106f30b1-83db-25b3-2802-fa04343a36e4?t=1561389512018
• Z-Yen Global Financial Centres: https://www.longfinance.net/media/documents/GFCI_27_Full_Report_2020.03.26_v1.1_.pdf
• Startup Blink Startup Cities: https://www.startupblink.com/
• IMD Smart Cities Index: https://www.imd.org/globalassets/wcc/docs/smart_city/smartcityindex_2020.pdf
• Mori Memorial Global Power Cities Index: http://www.mori-m-foundation.or.jp/english/ius2/gpci2/index.shtml
• IESE Cities in Motion Index: https://media.iese.edu/research/pdfs/ST-0542-E.pdf
• INSEAD Global Talent Competitiveness Index: https://www.insead.edu/sites/default/files/assets/dept/globalindices/docs/GTCI-2020-report.
pdf
• Mercer Quality of Life Survey: https://mobilityexchange.mercer.com/insights/quality-of-living-rankings
To optimise Dubai’s development supply, a Supreme Committee for Real Estate planning was established in 2019
to develop a 10-year strategy for major real estate projects and ensure all future projects are add real value to
the national economy. Plans for the city’s next cycle of development echo growing appetites for medium density,
high amenity, mixed use development near public transport and special attention on public realm enhancements.
Evidence of this is the emergence of plans for mixed-use towers and communities. 12
In 2016, the UAE’s Smart Dubai agency launched the Happiness Agenda and became one of four countries to
appoint a Minister of State for Happiness and Well-being to coordinate national efforts. The agenda aims to provide
government agencies, private sector and non-profit organisations with the tools to foster happy and productive
working environments. By 2021, the Government aims for the UAE to rank among the top 5 happiest countries in
the world in the Happiness Index, which considers individual perceptions of satisfaction and standards of living. 13
Initiatives that have benefited employees in Dubai include:
A number of key plans and initiatives have been announced to guide Dubai’s future development. The overarching
aim of Dubai’s series of long-term plans is to accelerate the transition towards the innovation economy, more
renewable sources of energy and low carbon transport options. A number of more specialised long-term plans
support an overarching Charter that sets out the Government’s vision for the future of Dubai.
Fifty-Year Charter
In 2019, the Fifty-Year Charter for the future of Dubai was declared to mark five decades of Sheikh Mohammed
bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s service as the Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai. The
Charter sets the emirate’s agenda and vision for the next 50 years. It is designed to guide future decision making
and support existing Government strategies that cover the same period. It combines major investment projects and
policies to improve the sustainability of housing and the delivery of vital public services. Each year, the Charter will
be refined to reflect the changing nature of challenges in the city. 14
The Charter outlines nine key projects and programmes which intend to catalyse positive multipliers that will raise
the quality of life for future generations to come and consolidate Dubai’s reputation as a leading destination for
investment and business set up. Three of the largest projects that are already underway include:
Dubai Silk Road: Dubai will work with international governments to unite its global network of ports under a
new trade route. The city will effectively become the gateway between the East and the West. Proposal prepared
by the Ports, Customs and Free Zone Corporation was approved in 2019.
Network of Economic Zones: Dubai will designate specialised economic zones across the city. Each zone will
have a dedicated council that will organise and promote business activity and oversee investment and economic
targets.
Over the next decade, Dubai’s transport agency is expanding public transport network to help enable long-term
plans and agendas to come into being. These plans extend back to 2013 and look forward to 2030, by which point
the system is expected to have 197 stations across the metropolitan area and over 420km of track. 15
Total in
2030: 421km 197 stations
Al Maktoum
International
Airport
In 2021, Dubai will become the first city in the MENAT region to host the World Expo. The event will create a
substantial boost for the national economy – over 275,000 jobs will be generated, US$ 40 billion will be injected into
the economy and a minimum of 25 million tourists are expected to visit. 16
World Expo 2020 is located between Dubai and Abu Dhabi, within the Al Maktoum International Airport aerotropolis
and the Dubai South development area. The US$ 2.5 billion construction of a new metro line (Route 2020) connects
the location to Dubai’s wider public transport network. 17
World Expo 2020 has the potential to set the foundations for Dubai’s long-term economic growth, particularly if its
legacy is efficiently managed.
District 2020
The Government plans to repurpose over 80% of property and infrastructure built for the event into District 2020,
over 2 million m2 future-ready smart district. 18 The District will open in 2022 and is set to house over 145,000
residents and become an innovation location with a mix of Fortune 500 companies, SMEs, research institutions,
accelerators, incubators, venture capital and supporting digital infrastructure.
The District 2020 will be an innovation ecosystem which will focus on science and sustainability, in both its
construction phases and in its long-term economic strategy. It will introduce smart mobility (parking, automated
public transport, smart shuttles) and will promote active mobility with pedestrianised streets and dedicated bike
lanes. The commercial space will be shared by anchor tenants including Siemens and Merck, and academic and
social institutions re-purposed from World Expo 2020 (e.g. Dubai Exhibition Centre will become a major conference
centre, sustainability pavilion will be transformed into a science centre for children). District 2020’s focus on
sustainability aligns with the Fifty Year Charter’s emphasis on using clean energy to generate electricity across the
city, and its plan to encourage all developers to integrate solar panels into their development. District 2020 will
inherit World Expo 2020’s experimental solar tree structures, which are made using solar panels.
Recent announcement from UAE government NCEMA, the UAE ranked 1st in the number of tests per capita during
the months of July and August 2020. More than 2 million test carried out in labs in the country, the eight highest
number in the world.
The world changed radically since early 2020, the global pandemic has resulted in millions of cases and hundreds
of thousands of fatalities so far. Without a vaccine or efficient curative treatment, countries across the world
implemented stringent lockdown and social distancing measures to contain the health crisis. These measures are
having a major impact on the economy.
COVID-19 is expected to have a number of long term socio-economic implications that may re- shape the way
companies and individuals consume, create value and interact:
Multiple geopolitical shifts are emerging as critical Crises are harbingers of evolution and great times for
issues in the response to COVID-19. There is a new reprioritisation, innovation, and thinking out of the
relationship between citizens and government because box. As the scientific research is progressing and the
of more national level intervention. COVID-19 crisis medical response is improving, a number of sectors
has largely demonstrated the importance of having a are ‘re-opening’, bringing new ideas, business models,
stable government which could lead to more confidence and opportunities for the mid- and long-term. This ‘new
government. These dimensions may play into the shift normal’ produces a new set of business and investment
to more managed globalisation, which will see stricter opportunities across numerous sectors and geographies.
Government of Dubai US$ 2bn bond – a expansion and development of Dubai International
testament of international investors’ trust in Airport and Al Maktoum International Airport.
Dubai’s credit story and the resilience of its
economy. In Jun-2017, HSBC advised the Department of
Finance (“DoF”), Investment Corporation of Dubai
In Sep 2020, The Government of Dubai announced (“ICD”) and Dubai Aviation City Corporation
the successful completion of a USD2bn bond (“DACC”) on the establishment of a new funding
issuance, marking Dubai’s successful return to the platform, Airport Financing Company FZE (“FINCO”)
international debt capital markets since 2014. This to raise up to c. USD25bn over the next 12 years for
issuance was in line with the determinants of the the expansion of DXB and development of a new
financial policy pursued by the emirate, which was airport, Al Maktoum International Airport (“DWC”),
based on financial sustainability and continued (together “Dubai Airports”). HSBC also acted as
spending on vital infrastructure projects. HSBC Sole Financial Adviser and Mandated Lead Arranger
acted as a Joint Lead Manager and Bookrunner on on the debut USD3 billion financing to FINCO.
this as well as all other USD public issuances in the Subsequently, in 2018 and 2020, FINCO mandated
international capital markets by the Government of HSBC as Sole Financial Advisor to further re-evaluate
Dubai since 2010, a testimony to our long standing and optimize the Passenger Tariff given the changes
relationship with the Government. With c.84% placed in capex requirements as well as external factors
outside the MENA region, the geographic diversity of such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
the book and overwhelming demand are a testament
of international investors’ trust in Dubai’s credit story Port & Free Zone FZE (PFZW) and DP World –
and the resilience of its economy. enabling DP World privatisation, establishing a
Sustainable Development Financing Framework
Dubai Airports and Airport Financing Company for DP World and Green financing to achieve its
FZE (FINCO) – to support the Emirate on transformation from a global port operator to the
expanding its infrastructure capacity given world’s leading infrastructure led, global supply
Dubai’s steady growth and strategic location chain solutions provider.
Dubai’s strategic geographical location, passenger In July 2020, HSBC acted as Mandated Lead
traffic demand in Dubai has grown steadily over Arranger and Bookrunner on a US$ 9 billion bank
the last 50 years transforming Dubai International debt facility for Port & Free Zone FZE (PFZW), funding
Airport (“DXB”) into the largest international airport the cash component required to take private DP
in the world. Given the growing traffic demands, the World PLC (DPW) from the Nasdaq Dubai stock
Emirate is expanding its infrastructure capacity with exchange, refinancing existing debt and to make
the development of the Al Maktoum International payments to Dubai World (shareholder of PFZW).
Airport (with an estimated capacity of 150 million Following the delisting, DPW became a wholly
passengers). FINCO is a financing platform set up owned subsidiary of PFZW, which is owned by the
by the Government of Dubai in 2017 to fund the Government of Dubai through Dubai World. DPW is
Majid Al Futtaim Holding (MAF) – the world’s In May 2019, HSBC acted as sole Green Structuring
first benchmark Islamic green corporate bond Advisor, Joint Global Coordinator, Joint Lead
and Green Finance Framework highlights the Manager, and Joint Bookrunner on a US$ 600m 10-
group’s strong focus on green issues and a year RegS only Green Sukuk issuance. The landmark
commitment to be net positive in energy and offering achieved a number of milestones including
water consumption by 2040. being the first green transaction from a non-
financial institution in the MENA region, and the first
In October 2019, With HSBC as sole green benchmark-size green Sukuk by a corporate globally.
structuring adviser, MAF issued the world’s first HSBC assisted MAF in developing its Green Finance
benchmark-size Green Sukuk by a corporate. Since Framework to reflect the Company’s sustainability
1992, UAE-based lifestyle conglomerate MAF has policies while also aligning it with the ICMA green
been a trendsetter in retail, leisure and entertainment, bond principles. The proceeds of the issuances are
and a leader with regards to sustainability in its to be allocated towards eligible green investments
region. With its ground-breaking US$ 600 million, in green buildings, energy efficiency, water and
10-year Green Sukuk, issued from the Middle East wastewater management, and renewable energy.
and North Africa (MENA), the group with a focus on
green issues and a commitment to be net positive Landmark Group’s ‘first-of-its-kind’ dual-
in energy and water consumption by 2040, notched platform blockchain transaction – marks a
up another world first. With HSBC’s global expertise major step forward in the Middle East’s retail
in sustainable finance, MAF has issued the world’s industry adopting blockchain
World Expo 2020 Dubai – HSBC has announced UK Pavilion sponsorship at Expo 2020 Dubai
The first World Expo to be held in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia (MEASA) region, and largest ever
event to take place in the Arab world, World Expo 2020 Dubai will welcome 192 countries, plus businesses,
multilateral organisations and educational establishments. The theme for World Expo 2020 Dubai - Connecting
Minds, Creating the Future - seeks to engage people to recognise the potential of what can be achieved when
meaningful collaborations and partnerships are forged. The theme recognises that today’s challenges are
far too complex to be solved in isolation, and that the creation of sustainable solutions to global problems
demands readiness to reach out across geographies, institutional boundaries, industry clusters, cultures, and
disciplines. HSBC will be a founding partner of the UK pavilion for World Expo 2020 Dubai, promoting the power
of international connectivity at the world’s biggest showcase of global innovation, creativity and collaboration.
World Expo 2020 Dubai would provide a platform for exposing UK business to millions of visitors, open British
firms to new opportunities and connect them with potential partners and customers. HSBC’s commitment to
connect customers to opportunities that enable economies to thrive and people to fulfil their ambitions aligns
with the UK pavilion’s theme of ‘Innovating for a Shared Future’. The global mega event will now run from 1
October 2021 to 31 March 2022, a delay that allows all participants to safely navigate the impact of COVID-19.
1
https://www.dsc.gov.ae/en-us/Pages/Population.aspx
2
UN World Urbanisation Prospects: 2018 Revision. Data available at: https://population.un.org/wup/DataQuery/
3
https://algnewsletter.com/maritime/dubais-ports-a-strong-model-facing-new-paradigms/
4
Euromonitor (2020) Top 100 City Destinations: 2019. Available at: https://go.euromonitor.com/white-paper-travel-2019-100-
cities.html
5
https://aci.aero/news/2020/05/19/aci-reveals-top-20-airports-for-passenger-traffic-cargo-and-aircraft-movements/
6
https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/dubai-population
7
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/11/dubai-uae-transformation/ ; https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/93255/1/
dp8003.pdf
8
https://www.cio.com/article/3436783/starting-up-in-the-uae.html
9
https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en-gb/knowledge/publications/cb41e7ae/dubais-al-maktoum-international-airport-en-
route-to-becoming-the-worlds-largest
10
https://global.ctbuh.org/resources/papers/download/3816-the-tall-polycentric-city-dubai-and-the-future-of-vertical-urbanism.pdf
11
http://cdnimd.worldarchitecture.org/doc_datas/1870_.pdf
12
https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/story/Azizi_completes_284unit_Dubai_mixeduse_development-SNG_165786906/ ; https://
meconstructionnews.com/38366/mag-development-breaks-ground-on-2bn-mixed-use-project-in-dubai
13
https://u.ae/en/about-the-uae/the-uae-government/government-of-future/happiness
14
https://www.mbrmajlis.ae/50-en/The%20Fifty-Year%20Charter.pdf
15
https://www.emirates247.com/news/emirates/find-out-which-new-communities-will-be-linked-to-dubai-
metro-2014-05-04-1.547808
16
https://gulfnews.com/uae/expo-2020-dubai-in-numbers-1.1571313704473 ; http://www.meetingmediagroup.com/article/expo-
2020-dubai-granted-to-be-an-unforgettable-experience
17
https://www.alstom.com/press-releases-news/2020/7/inauguration-dubai-route-2020-metro
18
https://www.expo2020dubai.com/-/media/expo2020/sustainability/expo2020-sustainability-report-2019-en.pdf