Annals of Earth, Environment, and Infrastructure Engineering

Volume 1, Issue 1 (November-December), pp. 33-37

Preliminary Assessment of the Seismic Hazard for the District of Pathankot

(Punjab), India
Short Paper
Sandeep Sharma1
1
Assistant Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, ACET, Amritsar, India
Email: [email protected]
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7915-6547

Manuscript ID: AEEIE-S-17-11-21-R1; Submitted in Nov 2021; Revised in Jan 2021; Accepted on 21st Jan 2022; Published on 26th Jan 2022

ABSTRACT

A preliminary assessment of earthquake hazards for the district of Pathankot (Punjab) has been carried out. The
study area has already experienced strong ground motions of intensity VII in the past during the 1905 Kangra
earthquake. The epicenter of the 1905 Kangra earthquake was only 60 km away from the study area. Hence, the
proximity of the study area to the northwestern Himalayas makes it susceptible to damage due to large earthquakes
in the future. Therefore, deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) has been carried out for the district. For
this purpose, earthquake data has been collected from various seismological agencies e.g. NDMA, IMD, ISC-
UK, and USGS, and a comprehensive earthquake catalog has been prepared. Several ground motion prediction
equations (GMPEs) have been reviewed and analyzed to select a GMPE appropriate for carrying out DSHA.
Earthquake hazard parameters have been formulated in terms of peak ground accelerations (PGA). Based on the
results, a seismic hazard map for the district has been prepared. The study shows that the region can experience
severe strong ground motions originating from northwestern Himalayan earthquakes and hence, structures must
be designed based on hazard parameters determined considering the local tectonic setting. The developed hazard
map would help engineers and town planners in designing earthquake-resistant structures and retrofitting existing
structures.

Keywords: DSHA, Maximum magnitude potential, Peak ground acceleration, Pathankot

INTRODUCTION for the government to take suitable mitigation

measures.
Earthquakes are the most hazardous natural events
which can inflict massive damage to structures and Seismic zoning map of India as per BIS-
can wipe out entire cities in minutes. In the past few 1893: Part-1 (2016) offers a crude idea of the
decades, the earthquakes in India have gone up as earthquake hazard as it gets updated only after the
the Indian plate and Eurasian plate are bashing at a occurrence of an earthquake. Hence, for an
rate of 50 mm/year (Peltzer and Saucier, 1996). The emerging country like India, appropriate steps for
mighty Himalayas are born due to the clashing of seismic hazard assessment are necessary to estimate
these two plates, which makes the terrain area in the an optimum and reliable value of possible
vicinity susceptible to moderate to severe earthquake ground motion. These prognosticated
earthquakes. Some of the significant seismic events values could be used as an input to assess the seismic
that occurred in this area are the Uttarkashi vulnerability of an area, based on which new
earthquake (1991), the Chamoli earthquake (1999), construction and the restoration works of existing
and the Nepal earthquake (2015). The wreckage structures can be carried out. The purpose of a
caused by these earthquakes has been a wake-up call seismic hazard analysis (SHA) is to quantify
Corresponding Author’s Affiliation: Amritsar College
of Engineering and Technology, 12 Km Stone,
Amritsar-Jalandhar G.T Road,
Amritsar-143001 (Punjab) , India
33
potential damage and loss due to future earthquakes. STUDY AREA
It includes a quantitative evaluation of ground
shaking hazards at a particular site. SHA can be used Pathankot district is located in the north zone of the
to make regional macro or micro zoning maps which State of Punjab (India). The district is spread in an
are useful in earthquake-resistant building design area of 929 km2. It is located at the foothills of
and construction, land use planning, emergency Shivalik Hills. It shares international borders with
plan, and estimation of possible economic loss. the Narowal District of Pakistani Punjab and state
borders with the Kathua District of Jammu &
Two perspectives, probabilistic seismic Kashmir and Chamba and Kangra districts of
hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic Himachal Pradesh. The two main rivers, Beas and
hazard analysis (DSHA) are commonly used for Ravi, passes through the district. The Latitude is
seismic hazard assessment. In DSHA, a specific 32.324276° N and the longitude is 75.59063° E.
earthquake scenario is assumed based on both
historical and instrumental data, and hazard The District is only 60 km away from the
parameters are estimated considering the attenuation epicenter of the 1905 Kangra earthquake. The 1905
characteristics of the region. In this method, the Kangra earthquake occurred in the Kangra Valley
source causing the maximum hazard at any location and the Kangra region of the Punjab Province
is considered to be the controlling source that poses (modern-day Himachal Pradesh) in India on 4th
a maximum threat to that particular location. April 1905. The earthquake measured 7.8 on the
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a surface wave magnitude scale and killed more than
methodology that considers the uncertainties in size, 20,000 people. Some of the major earthquakes that
location, and occurrence of an earthquake, and occurred near the region during the last 200 years
estimates the likelihood of various levels of are the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.4),
earthquake-caused ground motions being exceeded 1950 Assam earthquake (Mw 8.7), 1905 Kangra
in a given time period at a location. The results of earthquake (Mw 7.8), 1991 Uttarkashi (Mw 6.8),
such an analysis are expressed as estimated 1993 Killari earthquake (Mw 6.2), 1999 Chamoli
probabilities per year or estimated annual earthquake (Mw 6.8), 2005 Kashmir earthquake
frequencies. (Mw 7.6) and 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8).

The results of the seismic hazard analysis An area in 300 km radius around the
are formulated generally in terms of peak ground Pathankot district has been selected as the seismic
acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (Sa). study region (SSR).
Conventionally, PGA is used to quantify ground
EARTHQUAKE HISTORY OF THE REGION
motion and used to calculate lateral forces and shear
stresses in the equivalent-static-force procedures in A comprehensive earthquake catalogue is a
building codes, and in liquefaction analysis. The Sa prerequisite for earthquake hazard analysis. A
is the maximum acceleration experienced by a reliable seismic hazard assessment for a region
damped single-degree-of-freedom oscillator and is a strongly depends on the data statistics of the events.
crude representation of building response. These There are two types of database available: pre-
parameters are the prime inputs to seismic hazard instrumental and instrumental period database.
analysis and hence must be calculated with extreme Records of pre-instrumental events are of immense
caution. importance for the compilation of earthquake
catalogue. Pre-instrumental data are available for
In the present study, an attempt has been
damaging earthquakes and have been collected from
made to assess seismic hazards for the District of
catalogue of National Disaster Management
Pathankot in State of Punjab using a deterministic
Authority of India (NDMA, 2011). The instrumental
approach. The results of the study would help in the
data have been collected from various national and
more efficient design of earthquake-resistant
international seismological agencies such as
structures and the planning of rescue arrangements.
34
Annals of Earth, Environment, and Infrastructure Engineering
Volume 1, Issue 1 (November-December), pp. 33-37
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), SEISMOTECTONICS OF THE REGION
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD),
International Seismological Centre (ISC-UK) and A tectonic map developed for the seismic study
United States Geological Survey (USGS). A region by Puri and Jain (2018) has been used in this
comprehensive earthquake catalogue has been study (see Figure 2). The tectonic map was
prepared for a period from 1800 AD to 2017 AD by developed using Seismotectonic Atlas of India and
combining the pre-instrumental and instrumental its Environs (SEISAT) (Dasgupta et al., 2000). In
data collected. The compiled catalogue has the 1256 order to identify the active tectonic sources likely to
events of magnitude Mw ≥ 4 occurred in the seismic generate strong ground motions in the study area,
study region (between 28° - 33° N to 73° - 77° E) till the earthquake data from the catalogue have been
December 2017. An Epicenter map has been superimposed on to the tectonic map. A total of 10
developed using the prepared catalogue as shown in tectonic features which are associated with
Figure 1. earthquakes of moment magnitude 4.0 and above
have been identified as active tectonic sources, out
which 08 sources have been selected as potential
seismogenic sources. The values of maximum
observed magnitude (Mobs) for various
seismogenic sources have been reported in Table 1.

Table 1: Maximum Observed Magnitudes for Various Sources

S. No. Seismogenic Source Mobs
1 Sargodha Lahore Delhi Ridge (SLDR) 6.5
2 Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) 8
3 Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) 5
4 Jwala Mukhi Thrust (JMT) 5.5
5 Main Crustral Thrust (MCT) 7.3
6 Sundar Nagar Fault (SNF) 7
7 Kaurik Fault System (KFS) 6.8
Fig. 1: Epicentral Map of Study Area 8 Lineament System of SLDR (LSLDR) 6

The events in the catalogue have been

It has been observed that the district of
converted to a common scale of moment magnitude
Pathankot has always been under the threat of big
(Mw). For this, numerous empirical relations are
earthquakes due to its proximity with Main
available to convert different magnitude scales to
Boundary Thrust (MBT) and Main Frontal Thrust
moment magnitude (Mw). Pre-instrumental data is
(MFT) of Himalayan Thrust System.
usually available on MMI scale and have been
converted to moment magnitude (Mw) using the ESTIMATION OF MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE
Gutenberg-Richter (1956) relation. The following POTENTIAL FOR THE STUDY REGION
correlations developed by Scordilis (2006) between
mb - Mw and Ms - Mw have been used. For the Damaging earthquakes of magnitude (Mw) of 5 and
conversion of local magnitude (ML) to moment above have been considered for estimation of
magnitude (Mw), regional correlation is generally maximum magnitude potential (Mmax). The Mmax
preferred. Hence, the following correlation values for the potential seismogenic sources present
developed by Kolathayar et al. (2012) for India and in the study area have been estimated by adding an
adjoining areas has been used. The following increment 0.5 to the respective Mobs values (Gupta,
correlation developed by Yenier et al. (2008) 2002). The Mmax values in terms of moment
between Md - Mw has been used. magnitude estimated for the seismic study area
range from 5.5 to 8.5.The Mmax and total fault
lengths (TFL) values for the selected seismogenic
sources have been reported Table 2.

35
Annals of Earth, Environment, and Infrastructure Engineering
Volume 1, Issue 1 (November-December), pp. 33-37
 Fig. 2: Tectonic setup of the seismic study region

Table 2: Maximum Magnitude Potential for Various Sources

Seismogenic Total Fault Mmax Fig. 3: Deterministic Seismic Hazard Map for Pathankot
Source Length (TFL) in
kms
SLDR Area Source 7
A very high to severe seismic hazard has
MBT 825 8.5
MFT 32 5.5 been observed for the entire district. The expected
JMT 290 6.0 PGA for north eastern part of Pathankot is as high as
MCT 769 7.8 1.89g. It has been observed that the PGA reported
SNF 101 7.5 for this region in IS:1893-Part 1 (2016) quite
KFS 137 7.3 underestimates the expected seismic hazard.
LSDSR 97 6.5
LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
ESTIMATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD
The study has following limitations:
In this study, a global ground motion prediction
equation (GMPE) for shallow crustal earthquakes 1. Seismic hazard maps based on probabilistic
developed by Graizer and Kalkan (2007) has been approach would give more realistic seismic
used for estimating seismic hazard for the district of hazard scenario.
Pathankot. For the computation of hazard at a grid 2. Due to preliminary nature of the study, the Mmax
point, ground motion parameters have been values have been calculated using incremental
computed w.r.t various seismogenic sources and the method only. However, a better assessment can
source causing maximum ground motion at the point be made using some advanced methods, e.g.,
of interest has been identified. The maximum Mark (1997), Wells and Coopersmith (1994)
magnitude potential of that seismogenic source has and Kijko (2011).
been considered as the controlling earthquake for 3. The catalogue should be screened for
the grid point under consideration. The maximum foreshocks and aftershocks (Gardner and
PGA value, i.e. PGAmax, for the controlling Knopoff, 1974) and completion periods of
earthquake at a grid point has been considered to should be determined using CUVI method
prepare a seismic hazard map of the district. The (Mulargia and Tinti, 1985) and Stepp’s (Stepp
value of PGAmax for all grid points ranges from 1972) methods.
0.254g to 1.89g. A deterministic seismic hazard map 4. The study been carried out for rock sites and
has been developed for the district using nearest hence it is necessary to carry out ground
neighbor interpolation technique and is shown in response analysis (e.g. Puri and Jain, 2021) for
Figure 3. the sites underlain by soils in order to account
for the nonlinearity of soils at severe peak
36
Annals of Earth, Environment, and Infrastructure Engineering
Volume 1, Issue 1 (November-December), pp. 33-37
 ground accelerations. 10. NDMA (2011). “Development of Probabilistic
5. A detailed study is required for this region of Seismic Hazard Map of India”. National Disaster
Punjab so that the hazard parameters given in Management Authority, Delhi (India).
11. Peltzer, G. and Saucier, F. (1996). “Present day
IS:1893-Part 1 (2016) could be suitably revised.
kinematics of Asia derived from geological fault
rates”. J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 101, pp. 27943 –
CONCLUSIONS
27956.
12. Puri, N. and Jain A. (2021). “Development of
In the present study, the seismic hazard analysis Surface Level Seismic Hazard Maps Considering
using deterministic approach has been carried out Local Soil Conditions for the State of Haryana,
for estimating peak ground acceleration (PGA) at India”. Journal of the Geological Society of India,
rock sites for district of Pathankot. It has been Vo.97, Issue 11, 1365–1378.
13. Puri, N. and Jain, A. (2018). “Possible Seismic
observed that the district is prone to high to severe
Hazards in Chandigarh City of North-western India
earthquake ground motions ranging up to 1.89g. due to its proximity to Himalayan Frontal Thrust”. J.
Hence, a comprehensive evaluation of earthquake Ind. Geophys. Union, Vol.22, No.5, 485-506.
hazard for this region is must. The results of this 14. Stepp, J. C. (1972). “Analysis of completeness of the
study would help and motivate engineers and earthquake sample in the Puget Sound area and its
effect on statistical estimates of earthquake hazard”.
investigators in earthquake resistance design of
In: Proc. Int. Conf. on Microzonation, Seattle.
structures and planning of mitigation measures. 15. Wells, D. L. and Coppersmith, K.J. (1994). “New
empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture
REFERENCES length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface
displacement”. Bull. seism. Soc. Am., Vol. 84, 974–
1. Dasgupta (2000). “Seismotectonic Atlas of India and 1002.
16. Yenier, E., Erdogan, Ö. and Akkar, S. (2008)
its Environs”. Geological Survey of India, Calcutta.
“Empirical relationships for magnitude and source-
2. Gardner, J.K. and Knopoff, A.L. (1974). “Is the to-site distance conversions using recently compiled
sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with Turkish strong-ground motion database”. In:
aftershocks removed, Poissonian?”. Bull. Seismol. Proceedings of the 14th World Conference on
Soc. Am., Vol.64, Issue 5, 1363–1367. Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China.
3. Graizer, V. and Kalkan, E. (2007). “Ground Motion
Attenuation Model for Peak Horizontal Acceleration
from Shallow Crustal Earthquakes”. Earthquake
Spectra, Vol. 23, No.3, 585-613.
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution
4. Gupta, I. D. (2002). “The State of the Art in Seismic 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit
Hazard Analysis”. ISET Journal of Earthquake http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ or send a letter to
Technology, Vol. 39, Issue 4, 311-346. Creative Commons, PO Box 1866, Mountain View, CA 94042,
5. Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C. F. (1956), "Earthquake USA.
magnitude, intensity, energy, and acceleration
(Second Paper)". Bulletin of the Seismological
Society of America, Vol. 46, Issue 2, 105–145.
6. IS 1893-Part1 (2016). “Indian Standard Criteria for
Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures, Part 1:
General Provisions and Building”. BIS New Delhi.
7. Kolathayar, S., Sitharam, T. and Vipin, K. S. (2012).
“Spatial variation of seismicity parameters across
India and adjoining areas”. Natural Hazards, Vol. 60,
Issue 3, 1365-1379.
8. Mark, R. K. (1977). “Application of linear statistical
models of earthquake magnitude versus fault length
in estimating maximum expectable earthquakes”.
Geology, Vol. 5, 464–466.
9. Mulargia, F. and Tinti, S. (1985). “Seismic sample
areas defined from incomplete catalogues: An
application to the Italian territory”. Phys. Earth
Planet In., Vol. 40, Issue 4, 273–300.

37
Annals of Earth, Environment, and Infrastructure Engineering
Volume 1, Issue 1 (November-December), pp. 33-37