Updated January 2022

The 2021 NFT

Market Report
Everything you need to know about the NFT market and
its most successful collectors
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have skyrocketed in popularity over the last year. NFTs are
blockchain-based digital items whose units are designed to be unique, unlike traditional
cryptocurrencies whose units are meant to be interchangeable. NFTs can store data on
blockchains — with most NFT projects built on the Ethereum blockchain — and that data
can be associated with files containing media such as images, videos, and audio, or even
in some cases physical objects. NFTs typically give the holder ownership over the data,
media, or object the token is associated with, and are commonly bought and sold on
specialized marketplaces.

In 2021, users sent at least $44.2 billion worth of cryptocurrency to ERC-721 and ERC-1155
contracts, the two types of Ethereum smart contracts associated with NFT marketplaces
and collections.

Weekly total cryptocurrency value and average value per

transaction sent to NFT platforms | 2021

Total value sent Average value per transaction

4,000,000,000 2,500

2,000
3,000,000,000

Average value (USD)

Total value (USD)

1,500
2,000,000,000
1,000

1,000,000,000
500

0 0
3/1/2021 5/1/2021 7/1/2021 9/1/2021 11/1/2021

Date

Notably, we see significant increases in both total value sent and average transaction size,
suggesting that NFTs as an asset category are gaining value as they attract new users.
There’s also a noticeable spike in total value sent beginning in the last week of August,
which appears to have been largely driven by the release of a new collection from the
popular NFT creator group Bored Ape Yacht Club. The second spike in late October and
early November appears to have been driven by the sale of one Cryptopunk NFT for $532
million. We’ll explore the rising value of NFT investments in more detail later in this report.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 2

Most users buy NFTs on dedicated marketplaces, similarly to how they might buy
conventional cryptocurrencies on an exchange. Many NFT marketplaces, such as OpenSea,
don’t custody users’ NFTs for them, instead allowing users to transfer NFTs directly
between their own wallets — in this way, those marketplaces are similar to decentralized
exchanges or P2P exchanges. Others, however, like Dapper Labs, handle custody on behalf
of users. The chart below shows the most popular NFT collections being traded on these
marketplaces over time.

Most Popular NFT collections by weekly transaction volume

| Mar ‘21–Oct ‘21

500,000,000 Meebits

Bored Ape Yacht Club

Bored Ape Kennel Club

400,000,000
Mutant Ape Yacht Club

0N1 Force
Transaction volume (USD)

Art Blocks
300,000,000
Cool Cats NFT
CrypToadz
200,000,000 CyberKongz

Hashmasks

Loot
100,000,000
MekaVerse

PUNKS Comic

0 Pudgy Penguins
3/1/2021 5/1/2021 7/1/2021 9/1/2021 CryptoPunks

CryptoPunks, which was established in 2017 well before the current NFT craze, has been
the most popular NFT collection during the time period studied, with more than $3 billion
in transaction volume since March 2021. Interestingly, we see some collections that
experienced brief but large spikes in transaction activity without ever gaining consistent
popularity. For instance, Hashmasks saw more than $380 million in transaction value
during the week of July 4, 2021. In no other week during the time period studied did the
collection see more than $95.7 million, and its average weekly transaction volume for
the entire time period studied was just under $21 million. We see a similar pattern with
Mutant Ape Yacht Club.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 3

We can also look at web traffic data for popular NFT marketplaces to examine where in
the world most NFT users are located.

Monthly share of web traffic to NFT marketplaces by region | 2021

Africa Central and Southern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Europe
Latin America Middle East North America Western Europe

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
3/1/2021 5/1/2021 7/1/2021 9/1/2021 11/1/2021

Date

We see a strong mix of web visits from several regions, with Central & Southern Asia,
North America, Western Europe, and Latin America leading the pack. The numbers suggest
that like conventional cryptocurrency, NFTs have achieved global popularity, with no
region making up more than 40% of monthly web visits since March 2021.

As the most popular NFT marketplace by a comfortable margin, analysis of OpenSea can
tell us a great deal about NFT growth overall. Over 6,000 NFT collections on OpenSea
have undergone at least one transaction, including buying, selling, or minting. This
activity is trending upwards, as the number of active NFT collections — which we define
as those that have undergone at least one transaction in any given week — has risen
significantly since March 2021.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 4

Weekly number of active NFT collections on OpenSea | 2021

3,500

3,000
Number of active collections

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
3/1/2021 5/1/2021 7/1/2021 9/1/2021 11/1/2021

Date

The data shows that growth began to increase quickly in July 2021, rising steadily through
October. After a slight decrease in early November, growth picked up again and continued
through the end of the year. The number of active NFT collections sits at 3,264 at the end
of 2021, its highest figure yet, up from just 193 at the beginning of March.

NFT trading is more retail-driven than cryptocurrency

trading overall
The vast majority of NFT transactions are at the retail level, meaning below $10,000
worth of cryptocurrency.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 5

Share of NFT transactions by transfer size | 2021

Retail (<$10K USD) NFT Collector ($10K-$100K USD) Institutional (>$100K USD)

100%
Share of all NFT transfers

75%

50%

25%

0%
3/1/2021 5/1/2021 7/1/2021 9/1/2021 11/1/2021

Date

However, as we see above, larger NFT transactions are becoming more and more common.
As of the week of December 26, 2021, NFT collector-sized transactions, meaning those
between $10,000 and $100,000 worth of cryptocurrency, have risen to account for 10% of
all NFT transactions, compared to under 1% in early January. With an average number of
around 580 per week, institutional-sized transactions account for well under 0.6% of all
transfers.

However, if we think in terms of transaction volume rather than raw transfers, NFT
collector-sized and institutional-sized transactions play a much more prominent role.
Specifically, NFT collector-sized transactions account for the majority of NFT transaction
volume in 2021 at 60%. Institutional transactions (above $100,000) make up 30% of
activity, while retail-sized transactions make up 10%.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 6

Share of NFT transaction volume by transfer size | 2021

Retail (<$10K USD) NFT collector ($10K-$100K USD) Institutional (>$100K USD)

100%
Share of all NFT transaction volume

75%

50%

25%

0%
3/1/2021 5/1/2021 7/1/2021 9/1/2021 11/1/2021

Date

The data shows that the NFT market is far more retail-driven than the traditional
cryptocurrency market, where retail transactions make up a negligible share of all activity.
But how are NFT investors faring in the market?

NFT investor performance: What makes a good

NFT collector?
Anyone paying attention to the NFT market knows that investors have flocked in part
because they believe they can achieve a high return on investment by purchasing NFTs —
either during the minting process or by purchasing them from another user — and selling
them later for a profit. The data suggests that NFTs are far from a surefire investment,
however. Transaction data from the OpenSea marketplace shows that just 28.5% of NFTs
purchased during minting and then sold on the platform result in a profit. Buying NFTs on
the secondary market from other users and flipping them, however, leads to profit 65.1%
of the time. Below we’ll dive deeper into the data to analyze what tactics lead to more
success for NFT collectors.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 7

Whitelisting is key to success in trading newly-minted NFTs
More than anything else, NFTs run on community and word of mouth growth. Look at
virtually any successful NFT project, and you’ll likely find Discord servers and Twitter
threads full of enthusiasts promoting the project. This is by design. NFT creators typically
begin building interest in new projects long before the first assets are released, gathering
a core of dedicated followers who help promote the project from the outset. NFT creators
will then reward those dedicated followers by adding them to a “whitelist,” allowing them
to purchase new NFTs at a much lower price than other users during minting events.

Whitelisting isn’t just some nominal reward — it translates to dramatically better investing
results. OpenSea data shows that users who make the whitelist and later sell their newly-
minted NFT gain a profit 75.7% of the time, versus just 20.8% for users who do so without
being whitelisted. Not only that, but the data suggests it’s nearly impossible to achieve
outsized returns on minting purchases without being whitelisted. The chart below breaks
down sales of newly-minted NFTs into buckets based on the ROI the collector achieved,
expressed in multiples of the original investment, with whitelisted collectors who bought
during minting compared to those who did so without being whitelisted.

Share of NFT minting purchases by ROI range: Whitelisted vs.

Non-whitelisted buyers on OpenSea
Non-whitelisted Whitelisted

60%
Share of all sales by minting buyers

40%

20%

0%
)

)
0)
5)

0)

)
5)

0+
)
5

.0

.0
.0
.5
0.

.7

0.
1.

.2

,5

50
,2
1

.
50
,0

5,

,1
,1

5,
<

.0
.5

0,
.5

.0
.7

.0

.2

[2
[1

0.
[0

[0

[5
[1

[1

[1

ROI multiple

Overall, 78% of sales by unwhitelisted buyers later result in a loss on resale, with
59% resulting in a loss equal to or below 0.5x their initial investment. 78% of sales by
whitelisted buyers, on the other hand, result in a profit, with 51% resulting in a profit of
2x or more the initial investment. The data is clear: Whitelisting provides a significant

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 8

financial reward for those who play a role in an NFT project’s success by seeding its early
community growth efforts.

However, if you’re not on the whitelist, it’s significantly harder to turn a profit after
buying a newly-minted NFT. Of course, keep in mind that these numbers don’t account for
NFTs that have been minted, bought, and never resold. It’s possible that some of those
NFTs will be sold and ultimately turn a profit in the future, meaning the 28.5% figure –
representing NFTs minted and then sold at a profit – could rise over time.

Large investments, more attempts, and a diversity of collections

correlate with success in NFT flipping
Flipping NFTs with a prior sales history, on the other hand, has a much higher success
rate than reselling NFTs bought during minting. As we stated above, OpenSea data shows
that users following this strategy make a profit on 65.1% of resales. NFT flipping activity
is quite concentrated. Over 2,000 individual NFT collections on OpenSea have had a
secondary sale, but just 250 collections account for 80% of those secondary sales.

NFT collections by percentage of all NFT flips accounted for

on OpenSea

100%

The top 500 NFT collections

account for 94% of all flips.
75%
Percent of all flips on Opensea

50%

The top 95 NFT collections account

for 50% of all flips on OpenSea

25%

0%
500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Number of Collections

This concentration isn’t limited just to collections, but also includes the addresses doing
the flipping.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 9

Concentration in share of NFT flips vs. share of gains from NFT flips by
address on OpenSea
Share of realized gains Share of total flips

100% 125%

Share of total realized gains from NFT flips

100%
75%
The top 30% of OpenSea addresses account
Share of all NFT flips

for 87% of all NFT flips and 107% of all

75%
realized gains from NFT flips.
50%
50%

25%
25%

0% 0%
20% 40% 60% 80%

Share of all addresses

20% of user addresses on OpenSea account for 80% of secondary NFT sales, while just 5%
of all addresses account for 80% of profits made on secondary sales.

In order to investigate what separates the most successful NFT flippers from the rest,
in the next few charts, we separate all 23,000+ OpenSea user addresses that have ever
flipped 10 or more NFTs on the secondary market — meaning all sales of NFTs post-
purchase but not post-minting — into five quintiles based on the the percentage of all
profits realized from NFT flipping that they account for. Group 1 is the most successful
quintile, accounting for 85% of total profits made through NFT flipping, while Group 5 is
the least successful.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 10

The first thing we notice is somewhat unsurprising: The most successful NFT flippers buy
and sell significantly more NFTs than other investors.

Average number of flips by NFT Flip Group on OpenSea

125

100
Average number of flips

75

50

25

0
5 4 3 2 1

Group

Addresses in Group 1 have bought and resold 105 NFTs on average, more than double the
average for Group 2 at 39. Interestingly, the relationship between investing success and
number of flips stops with Group 5, whose addresses have on average flipped slightly
more than addresses in Group 4, at 21 versus 18.

The data suggests that experience and practice may help investors become better at
spotting market inefficiencies and finding NFTs that are likely to increase in value.
Another reason for this finding may be that investors in Group 1 have more capital —
either when starting out or accumulated over time from successful flips, or perhaps a mix
of both — allowing them to buy and sell more frequently than other investors.

Another data point that seems counterintuitive but supports the idea that more up
front capital results in more NFT resale success: The most successful NFT flippers pay
significantly more on average for their initial purchase before selling.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 11

Average purchase price for NFT to be flipped by NFT Flip Group
on OpenSea

1.25
Average purchase price (ETH)

1.00

0.75

0.50

0.25

0.00
5 4 3 2 1

Group

At 1.07 ETH per NFT, investors in Group 1 pay significantly more up front for NFTs they plan
to flip than those in any other group. Interestingly, Group 5 pays the second-highest up
front price per NFT at 0.71 ETH. The trend becomes even more pronounced if we focus on the
top 5% of NFT collector addresses, who account for 80% of all profits from NFT flipping.

Average purchase price for NFT to be flipped: Top 5% of NFT flippers

by gains vs. Bottom 95% on OpenSea
2.5

2.0
Average purchase price (ETH)

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
Bottom 95% Top 5%

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 12

The top 5% of NFT flippers on average pay 2.2 ETH for the NFTs they later resell, more
than double the average purchase price of the top quintile. Overall though, the data
shows that deploying capital isn’t enough on its own to be a successful NFT investor.
While high purchase prices appear to correlate with success for the top NFT collectors,
this strategy is catastrophic for the least successful collectors in Group 5, whose losses are
compounded by the fact that they’re spending large amounts on their initial purchases.
Group 1 appears to use better judgment on where to deploy capital, and more consistently
spots NFTs that will rise in value.

That finding is reinforced by our next comparison: Below, we look at the number of unique
collections purchased by each group of NFT flippers.

Average number of unique NFT collections purchased by NFT

Flipping Group on OpenSea

30
Average number of unique collections

20

10

0
5 4 3 2 1

Group

The most successful NFT flippers invest in a diverse array of NFT collections. Addresses
in Group 1 have bought NFTs from 28 unique collections on average, compared to 17 for
Group 2. Unlike with the amount spent per purchase, the relationship between investor
success and number of unique collections purchased is perfectly linear — the number of
unique collections decreases as we look at each less successful group, with addresses
in Group 5 purchasing from just nine collections on average. This could be another
function of successful NFT collectors having more capital to deploy on a wider variety of
collections, but also suggests they may be better at surveying the market as a whole to
spot more opportunities.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 13

The most successful NFT collectors’ strategy of investing in many different collections
appears to be paying off, in that their gains are relatively evenly spread across more of
their trades compared to others.

Average share of total gains derived from best ever NFT flip by NFT
Flipping Group on OpenSea

60%
Percent of all gains from best ever flip

40%

20%

0%

-20%
5 4 3 2 1

Group

On average, Group 1 addresses’ have achieved 31% of their overall NFT gains from their
most successful flip, compared to 37% for Group 2. The less successful the investor, the
higher a percentage of their overall gains we see coming from their most successful flip,
with Group 4 receiving 52% of all gains from their most successful flip on average. Group 5
as a whole is not profiting, hence why the group’s figure on this chart is negative.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 14

Finally, perhaps our most interesting finding is this: The most successful NFT investors
actually don’t have a significantly higher hit rate than others. The chart below shows the
percentage of flips that result in a profit for each flipping group.

Hit rate: Average share of all NFT flips with gains realized by NFT
Flipping Group on OpenSea
80%
Average share of NFT flips resulting in

60%

40%

20%

0%
5 4 3 2 1

Group

Addresses in Group 1 make a profit on 72% of NFTs they flip. Group 2 is profitable on 70%
of its flips, Group 3 on 69%, and Group 4 on 66%. Group 5 sees a large drop off, making a
profit on only half of its flips, but overall there’s very little separation between Groups 1-4.

High hit rates aren’t necessarily surprising, as many investors likely opt to hold NFTs if
they know they can’t flip them for a profit. However, these numbers suggest that Group
1 most separates itself not by picking successful NFTs more often, but by flipping more
NFTs at a similar hit rate to the other groups. The chart below, which shows each group’s
average ROI on each NFT purchased, also tells us that while Groups 1-4 have similar
hit rates, Group 1’s hits result in significantly better returns — in other words, Group 1 is
unearthing the very best NFT opportunities.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 15

Average ROI multiple for NFT purchases by NFT Flipping Group
on OpenSea

3.0

2.0
ROI (multiple)

1.0

0.0
5 4 3 2 1

Group

On average, the collectors in Group 1 make an ROI of 2.9x their initial investment every
time they flip an NFT, compared to 1.9x for Group 2. Each group makes a successively
lower multiple on each investment, with Group 5 returning a loss of 0.9x its initial
investment on average.

But what else are the top NFT collectors doing? Let’s go beyond NFT activity specifically
and look at the overall receiving exposure for addresses in the top quintile of NFT flippers.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 16

Origin of funds for top quintile of NFT traders on OpenSea

Unnamed Service ATM

0.4% 0.0%
Token Smart Contract
14.8%

Stolen Funds
0.0% Decentralized Exchange Contract
34.1%

Smart Contract
24.3%

Other
0.5%
Mining Exchange
1.0% 15.1%
Lending Contract Gambling
9.0% 0.3%

This doesn’t look like the average wallet. Since much of the smart contract exposure is
likely due to the NFT contracts themselves, we’ll ignore that category. Even so, the top
NFT collectors transact with decentralized exchanges at a higher rate than the average
wallet, which typically has much more exposure to centralized exchanges. We also see
more exposure to lending contracts and token smart contracts, which are also associated
with DeFi usage. The data suggests that the most successful NFT users tend to use
the cutting edge DeFi protocols favored by bigger investors. We can ascertain this by
comparing platforms’ average transaction sizes — decentralized exchanges, for example,
have an average transaction size of $26,520 worth of cryptocurrency, versus $12,431 for
centralized exchanges.

Overall, the numbers above suggest that the best NFT collectors win largely by taking
more bites of the apple. By deploying more capital across a wider variety of NFT
collections, these collectors are able to spot more “big wins” and compile more profits
despite having a similar success rate to other collectors, save for those in the bottom
quintile of NFT trading performance, who achieve significantly worse results than all
other groups.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 17

Are failed minting transactions dragging down
NFT gains?
So far, we’ve discussed the profitability of NFT trading strictly through the lens of initial
purchase price and sale price. Under that framework, we determined that collectors are
better off flipping NFTs they buy on the secondary market than NFTs purchased through
minting. Again, 65.1% of NFTs sold after being purchased from another user result in a
profit for the collector, versus 28.5% for NFTs purchased through minting. But investing in
newly-minted NFTs may be even less profitable than that figure would expect due to an
understudied aspect of the minting process: The immense number of failed transaction
fees.

Buying newly-minted NFTs from a highly-anticipated collection is an extremely

competitive process, with thousands of users rushing to buy at the appointed minting
time. They’re not always successful though. Many users attempt to buy either too
early, before minting has actually begun, or too late, when the collection has sold out.
Unfortunately, they still must pay Ethereum gas fees on those failed transactions, which
go to Ethereum miners to reimburse them for processing and validating transactions on
the Ethereum blockchain, as is the case for gas fees on successful transactions too. If one
includes those gas fees in profitability calculations, buying newly-minted NFTs becomes a
much less attractive investment than one would initially think. It also appears that some
experienced users employ bots to purchase NFTs as soon as minting begins, resulting in
more failed transactions — in some cases by the bots themselves — making profitable
trading even more difficult for the average user.

We saw a great example of this recently during minting for an NFT collection called The
Sevens. The Sevens is a collection of 7,000 NFTs that began minting on September 7, 2021
at 7pm UTC. Within just an hour after minting began, users had attempted over 26,000
failed transactions, resulting in over $4 million in fees.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 18

Cumulative gas feeds paid on failed transactions during The Sevens
minting event

$5,000,000
Cumulative gas fees (USD)

$4,000,000

$3,000,000

$2,000,000

$1,000,000

$0
0 0 0 0
:40:0 :0 0:0 :20:0 :40:0
18 19 19 19
21 21 21 21
/ 20 /20 / 20 /20
9 /7 9 /7 9/7 9/7

Date and time

Most users who attempted failed transactions didn’t try again. But interestingly, several
addresses failed multiple times — some addresses ended up attempting over 100 failed
purchases, paying over $100,000 in gas fees.

Number of addresses and total fees paid by addresses’ number of

failed attempted transactions during The Sevens minting event

Total fees paid Number of addresses

2,000,000 15,000

1,500,000
Total fees paid (USD)

Number of addresses

10,000

1,000,000

5,000
500,000

0 0
1 2 3-5 6 - 10 11 - 25 26 - 99 100+

Number of failed attempted transactions

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 19

That begs the question of whether live humans were controlling those addresses, or if the
address owners had created bots to automatically attempt purchases as many times as
possible. While that would suggest the bots were faulty, we have no way of knowing how
many bots successfully bought a newly-minted NFT from the collection, shutting out less
sophisticated users. In total, users who purchased NFTs during The Sevens minting event
have collectively realized $20.5 million in gains after selling the NFTs. But if we factor in
the $4 million in failed transaction fees, the collective profit falls roughly 20%.

One way NFT creators could address this problem would be to mint NFTs on Layer 2
protocols — meaning NFT marketplaces or other dedicated services built on an underlying
blockchain — and then allow users who buy them to transfer them to Layer 1, which is
the blockchain itself. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin outlines what such a solution
could look like here, though we are unaware of any major projects whose NFTs have been
minted on Layer 2 today.

The NFT market is dynamic but many won’t profit

NFTs represent one of the most exciting, fast-growing areas of the cryptocurrency world,
and have become especially popular with retail investors. However, those looking to
collect and trade NFTs must understand how competitive the market is.

The data shows that a very small group of highly sophisticated investors rake in most of
the profits from NFT collecting. This is especially true in minting, where the whitelisting
process gives early supporters of collection access to lower prices that result in greater
profits. We also see possible evidence of the use of bots by investors looking to purchase
during minting events, which could shut out less sophisticated users, and even result in
failed transactions that cost them in fees. Potential investors should be aware of all these
facts before jumping into the NFT market.

Still, there are some strategies that appear to correlate with success. For instance, many
investors with enough capital to deploy invest frequently in a wide array of collections, as
this appears to lead to the highest profits — of course, the strategy is risky and investors
must be careful not to spend beyond their means.

We look forward to seeing how the NFT market evolves as more artists, creators,
celebrities, and even video game makers launch collections catering to their fans. For
more information on the NFT market and how Chainalysis can work with marketplaces to
ensure user safety, please contact us here.

THE 2021 NFT MARKET REPORT 20

Thanks for reading the
2021 NFT Market Report
Chainalysis Authors

Kim Grauer
Director of Research

Will Kueshner
Content Marketer

Henry Updegrave
Senior Content Marketing Manager

This material is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide legal, tax, financial, or
investment advice. Recipients should consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

This report contains links to third-party sites that are not under the control of Chainalysis, Inc. or its
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hainalysis is not responsible for the products, services, or other content hosted therein.

Chainalysis does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, suitability or validity
of the information in this report and will not be responsible for any claim attributable to errors, omissions,
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