Poll of Florida General Election

Date: August 3, 2022
To: Interested Parties

From: Geoff Puryear, Polling & Research Director
Annika Ramnath, Deputy Polling & Research Director
Subject: New Statewide Polling1
The Hub’s late July statewide poll has some encouraging findings for Democrats, and
underscores the extent to which the national narrative of Florida trending away from swing state
status is wrong:
● The statewide generic ballot is tied: 46% Democratic / 46% Republican.

● Similarly, the US Senate race is highly competitive with Val Demings and Marco Rubio
tied (45% Demings / 45% Rubio).
○ Importantly, Demings is competitive in spite of roughly 1-in-3 Florida voters not
knowing who she is (36% favorable / 30% unfavorable / 34% cannot rate). Rubio
is unpopular, with 43% favorable / 52% unfavorable.
● Ron DeSantis leads Democratic candidates for governor, but by less than many would
expect: DeSantis leads a Democratic candidate by 5 points (43% Democrat / 48%
DeSantis).
○ Given his financial advantage DeSantis remains a favorite to win re-election, but
his polarizing nature could put a ceiling on his support (DeSantis is viewed
favorably by 50% of voters and unfavorably by 48%; 39% view him very favorably
and 40% view him very unfavorably).
Importantly, this data comes from a poll weighted to reflect what would be the most
pro-Republican electorate in recent history: with registered Republicans making up 41% of the
electorate and registered Democrats 37%. For the last decade the Republican advantage has
never been bigger than 2 points. By party identification the sample is 47% Republican and 44%
Democrat.
1
The Hub conducted the poll with Clarity Campaigns using our panel of Florida registered voters from
July 26-31, 2022. The sample is n=2,244 registered voters and has been weighted to reflect a likely
midterm electorate in terms of party registration (37% D / 22% NPA or OTH / 41% R), race (68% W / 13%
B / 16% H), and geography.
1
Florida Democrats remain competitive despite President Biden being unpopular in Florida with
40% viewing him favorably compared to 57% viewing him unfavorably. Only 18% view him very
favorably while 44% are very unfavorable toward him. Still, as we are seeing across the country
Democratic candidates are overperforming the president’s ratings and that is very much the
case in Florida, still the nation’s largest swing state.
Florida is also not immune from the shift in the political environment precipitated by the US
Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. As the August 2 election results in Kansas showed,
Democratic voters are more motivated to vote than would be typical for presidential party voters
in a midterm cycle. National generic ballot polling has also been trending Democratic since the
Dobbs decision. When it comes to abortion, Floridia’s midterm electorate prefers our side’s
argument. Respondents read the following arguments:
Dem side: Private health care decisions should be made by those seeking care, not politicians, including
when it comes to abortion care. But extremist Florida Republicans have passed an abortion ban without
exceptions for victims of rape or incest. This is wrong. We need leaders who will put Floridians' health,
safety, and real-life needs first, and leave private health care decisions to a patient, their family, their
doctor, and their faith.
GOP side: Decisions about how best to protect unborn life should be made by elected representatives
who reflect the will of the people of our state, not the courts. While extremist Democrats want abortion on
demand up until the moment of birth, Republicans believe in reasonable restrictions that protect unborn
life and the health and safety of the mother. We should be doing all we can to protect unborn life by caring
for pregnant women, not encouraging abortions.
65% of voters prefer the Democratic message. Democrats in Florida need to make sure that
as surely as abortion rights were on the ballot in Kansas last night, abortion rights are on the
ballot this fall - and that voters know that Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, and legislative
Republicans support extreme abortion bans, even for victims of rape or incest.

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Date: August 3, 2022

To: Interested Parties

● The statewide generic ballot is tied: 46% Democratic / 46% Republican.

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