Macro and Micro Environment Analysis in Laos
Macro and Micro Environment Analysis in Laos
Macro and Micro Environment Analysis in Laos
1. MACRO ENVIRONMENT
Political institutions
The Lao People's Army is small, has little budget and insufficient resources;
Their mission focused on border and domestic security, mainly against Hmong rebel
groups and other opposition. Together with the Lao People's Revolutionary Party and
the government, the Lao People's Army is the third pillar of the state apparatus and is
expected to prevent political and civil unrest or similar emergencies. There is no
external threat to Laos, and the Lao People's Army maintains strong ties with
Vietnam.
The political environment and social order and safety throughout Laos have
been considered stable for many years. This is evident in the view of the most
important policy of the Party and the State of Laos. This political stability has always
been considered as the most favorable and attractive opportunity for investment and
production and business activities for Vietnam. But Laos as well as other socialist
states, Laos also followed the path to socialism, which from this point has greatly
affected the psychology of investors from the socialist countries.
Legal system
Vietnam-Laos relationship
Vietnam and Laos are two countries with a long tradition of friendship. Under
the leadership of the two Parties, the two peoples have "committed to suffering"
throughout the historical journey against the aggression of the empires as well as in
the period of national defense and construction and development. The two countries
always attach great importance to this special traditional relationship, help each other
in all aspects, overcome difficult roads together, stand together on the path of
renovation and development of the country in the direction of socialism.
In the economic field, up to now, trade agreements have been signed with the
aim of further expanding trade relations between the two countries on the basis of
mutually beneficial equality, respecting the tradition of cooperation and international
trade practices. With efforts, Vietnam - Laos trade exchange is constantly increasing.
The two countries are working to boost bilateral trade in 2021 by 10 to 15 percent
from last year, potentially reaching $1 billion as planned. Vietnam remains Laos' third
largest trading partner (after Thailand and China), one of the three largest investors in
Laos with 413 projects and a total registered capital of US$4.22 billion, up 35% from
2010. Preferential mechanisms on import and export tax for goods originating from
the two countries are continued by the two sides with an ever-expanding list.
Especially in 2020, there was a breakthrough with 9 new and adjusted projects,
accumulated capital of more than 143 million USD, up 130% over the same period in
2019. Many investment projects promote efficiency, production, and business
profitably, contribute positively to the development of the two countries, create jobs,
increase social welfare, help Laos well implement poverty eradication policies.
Although there are still difficulties in terms of capital, Vietnam always gives certain
development aid to Laos, in the period of 2016-2021 is VND 3,250 billion, funded for
many different fields, the most priority for human resource development.
Economic environment
Size of economy
Laos has one of the fastest economic growth rates in ASEAN and has
maintained a rate of about 7% per year in recent years (from 2009 to 2017). The
inflation rate is quite low (1.3-2% per year). Simple investment mechanism,
expanding bank credit for agriculture and small businesses, developing special
economic zones... it has contributed to attracting foreign investors and helping the Lao
economy develop well. Laos' total GDP reached 18.17 billion USD, the GDP growth
rate was 4.7% and in 2019 according to the World Bank report.
Despite this, the Lao economy still has many difficulties, the infrastructure is in
the development stage, labor productivity and labor quality are still low. Laos'
economic development depends largely on mining, electricity, foreign investment
(FDI) and foreign aid. The road system is currently at a basic level, but is improving,
and there are restrictions on telecommunications in internal and external lines.
Electricity is available to 83% of the population. Recently, the country has faced
persistent current account deficits, falling foreign currency reserves and growing
public debt.
Laos joined the WTO in 2013 and continues to integrate with its ASEAN
neighbors through the ASEAN Economic Community. The following countries have
granted Common Priority System (GSP) status to Laos: Australia, Belarus, Canada,
Iceland, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Russia, Switzerland, Turkey, Austria,
Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Greece,
Finland, France, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands,
Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom. The
following items provide duty-free treatment under the LDC for Laotian goods: Chile,
China, Taiwan, the Republic of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Thailand.
Laos has also signed trade agreements with all nine other ASEAN members
and participated in a series of negotiations as a member of ASEAN. Laos has also
signed many bilateral agreements with Vietnam, China, Cambodia, Burma, Thailand,
North Korea, Mongolia, Malaysia, Russia, India, Belarus, Argentina, Kuwait, and
Turkey.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) in its annual Trade Profile 2020
publication noted the global trade ranking in 2019, Laos ranked 107 th in exports and
119th in terms of imports of goods in the world. In terms of services, Laos ranks 128th
in terms of exports and 131st in terms of imports. Laos' economic freedom index is
53.9, making it the 141st free economy in 2021 (Source: Heritage). The index fell 1.6
points mainly due to a decline in free trade. Laos ranks 32 nd out of 40 countries in the
Asia-Pacific region and has a lower economic freedom index than the regional and
world average. The Lao government began decentralizing control and encouraging
private enterprise in 1986. The country's economic growth averaged more than 6% per
year between 1988 and 2008, and it can be said that Laos' growth rate reached the
fastest rate in Asia, averaging more than 7% per year for much of the past decade.
The export value of Laos in 2019 reached 5,764 million USD and imports
reached 6.252 million USD, a deficit of 488 million USD. In terms of services, in
2019, Laos exported 1,101 million USD, imports reached 1.274 million USD, a deficit
of 173 million USD. Thus, the total balance of import and export turnover of Laos
reached a negative growth of 661 million USD in 2019. The export value of Laos in
2019 reached 5,764 million USD and imports reached 6.252 million USD, a deficit of
488 million USD. In terms of services, in 2019, Laos exported 1,101 million USD,
imports reached 1.274 million USD, a deficit of 173 million USD. Thus, the total
CÁN CÂN THƯƠNG MẠI CỦA LÀO GIAI ĐOẠN 2014 - 2019
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-0.488
-0.794 -0.869
-0.5
-1.127 -0.173
-1.609 -0.661
-0.393
-2
-2.002 -0.232
-2.254
-2.5
300
200 241
VN xuất khẩu sang Lào VN nhập khẩu từ Lào Cán cân thương mại
Leading among Vietnam's exports to the Lao market in the period of 2016-
2020 is iron and steel of all kinds. According to statistics of the General Department
of Customs, in 2020, exports of this item to Laos reached 72 million USD, down
16.5% compared to the same period last year, accounting for 12.6% of total exports to
this market. Thi "Lao Enterprise Product Introduction Week in Ho Chi Minh City" lao
school accounted for only 1.4% of total exports of products of the same type of
Vietnam. Previously in 2018 and 2019, Vietnam's iron and steel exports were the
strongest in the whole period with the value of 87.1 million USD and 86.2 million
USD, respectively.
So far, Vietnamese enterprises' investment in Laos has 413 projects with a total
capital of 4.22 billion USD, ranking 3rd among countries and territories investing in
Laos. Vietnam has agreed to buy 1,200 MW of Electricity from Laos, exceeding the
planned 1,000 MW of 2020 and will increase purchases to 5,000 MW by 2030,
creating more favorable conditions for Laos to develop socio-economic development.
Opportunity
Laos' economy has achieved a high and fairly stable growth rate in recent
years. Many economists expect Laos to continue to grow positively in the coming
years.
Laos has become an official member of the WTO, which will help Laos
diversify its investment as well as trade activities to other regions as countries
investing in Laos are mainly in the field of natural resource extraction.
Foreign investors are paying attention to the country because Laos has
abundant resources, low population density, so there is huge potential in mineral
resources, forests and land. In addition, this is also a country that is quite unspoiled, so
the growth potential is great.
Threat
The size of the economy is quite small and is growing in its infancy. The
industrial sector accounts for only about 30% of GDP. Industrial and service sector
workers make up only 25% (about 600,000 people). The country's enterprises are very
small in size and few are capable of listing on the stock exchange.
Laos' exchange rate, interest rate and inflation in recent years have been quite
stable, but in the recent past, these macro indicators can be seen to fluctuate very
sharply. Moreover, this is a small economy, the investment capital is highly dependent
on the outside. Therefore, the potential for exchange rate instability and inflation is
still great.
The rules for financial markets in Laos are still quite new, making the stock
market risky. In addition, room for foreign investors at only 10% reduces the
attractiveness of the market.
Socio-cultural environment
Population structure
Laos' current population was 7,467,424 as of May 13, 2022, according to the
latest figures from the United Nations. Laos' population now accounts for 0.9% of the
world's population, ranking 105th in the world in the ranking of populations of
countries and territories.
The population density is 32 people/km2 with a total land area of 230,612 km2.
Of these, 36.94% of the population lives in urban areas (2,706,847 in 2019). The
average age is 25 years old.
Workforce
Technology environment
The Lao Party and State always attach great importance to the cause of science
and technology development, the 9th Congress of the Lao NDCM Party continues to
affirm that the development of science and technology together with the development
of education and training is the leading national policy, the foundation and motivation
for industrialization, modernize the country.
The process of national renewal has created new premises for the development
of science and technology of Laos in the coming time. Laos' economy has a high
growth rate, continuously in recent years is a favorable condition to increase
investment in science and technology development, while promoting technological
innovation and applying scientific and technological achievements in the economy,
especially in the face of pressure on competition in the conditions of regional and
international integration.
Currently, Vietnam has invested in more than 50 countries and territories, but
with a fast-growing economy, Laos remains a large and important investment market
for Vietnamese businesses. With a peaceful foreign policy, friendship, cooperation,
and open-door policy, strengthening integration with the region and international
prestige and the position of the Lao PDR is constantly improved in the region and in
the international arena. Currently, Laos establishes diplomatic relations with 130
countries, is a member of many regional and international organizations (United
Nations, ASEAN, ASEM, WTO ...). In recent years, Laos' investment environment
has been improving positively in an increasingly open direction and in line with
international practices. Laos is a strategic area both economically and nationally
security for Vietnam. In 1993, Vietnam began implementing cascx projects in Laos.
To date, there are more than 400 projects with capital of over $4 billion. In the field of
communication, Laos has always identified the telecommunications industry as an
important infrastructure in promoting economic construction as well as improving
people's living standards. To ensure the rapid development of the Lao
telecommunications industry, the Lao government has adopted a series of measures
such as increasing the investment from the government budget, encouraging foreign
companies and domestic private enterprises to participate in the construction of
relevant infrastructure... Currently, Laos is a market with a lot of potential and very
attractive for foreign telecommunications enterprises. Therefore, the chances of
success of Vietnamese telecommunication enterprises investing in Laos are great.
The Lao government has simplified its tariff structure and is gradually revising
non-tariff barriers. Laos, which placed a top priority on trade facilitation, was one of
the earliest countries to ratify the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement.
Laos' import tax system aims to promote the import of input materials for
investment and production, while protecting domestic production and limiting luxury
imports. A foreign investment item does not have to pay import duty on the import of
machinery and equipment for production. Moreover, in some special economic zones
inputs do not require tariffs as long as the final product is exported from Laos. Raw
materials and imported intermediate goods for imported alternative industries may be
treated specially as prescribed.
Lao PDR's tariffs are based on the ASEAN Harmonized Tariff List (AHTN
2012), subject to standard ASEAN import tariff rates ranging from 0 to 40%,
excluding non-ASEAN countries. These taxes are regulated by the Customs
Department.
The excise tax rate ranges from 5-90% for many items. The Lao government
has phased out sales tax over the past few years and replaced it with a Value-Added
Tax (VAT) regime, although VAT is still applied inconsistently. Additional
information about taxes can be referenced at the Tax Department, Ministry of Finance.
Alternative products and services are products and services that can satisfy the
same needs as domestic products and services.
Tính đến tháng 8/2016, Unitel, thương hiệu của Viettel tại Lào, đã cán mốc 1 tỷ
USD doanh thu lũy kế sau 7 năm kinh doanh tại đất nước Triệu voi, tính từ tháng
10/2009.
Là thương hiệu nước ngoài thứ hai của Viettel (sau Metfone ở Campuchia),
Unitel nhanh chóng trở thành nhà mạng số 1 tại Lào và là thị trường liên tục có lãi của
Viettel. Lợi nhuận lũy kế hơn 300 triệu USD, Unitel hiện có 2,5 triệu khách hàng,
chiếm 47% thị phần di động và 35% thị phần băng rộng.
Với hạ tầng mạng lưới rộng khắp 4.000 trạm phát sóng (BTS) và 23.000 km
cáp quang, Unitel phủ sóng tới 100% số huyện và 95% dân số Lào. Đặc biệt, mạng di
động này đã bắt đầu cung cấp dịch vụ 4G từ tháng 6/2015.
Sự xuất hiện của Unitel góp phần thay đổi đáng kể thị trường viễn thông nước
này khi mật độ di động tăng từ 18% năm 2009 lên 68% năm 2016. Unitel tạo công ăn
việc làm cho hơn 4.000 người và thu nhập gián tiếp cho hơn 20.000 lao động địa
phương khác.
Theo đánh giá của Brand Finance, công ty tư vấn chiến lược và đánh giá
thương hiệu hàng đầu thế giới có trụ sở tại Anh, vừa công bố hồi tháng 4/2016, Unitel
là thương hiệu viễn thông hoạt động hiệu quả số 1 trong khu vực ASEAN. Giá trị
thương hiệu của Unitel tăng 106% so với 2015, đạt 132 triệu USD, nằm trong Top 30
thương hiệu viễn thông giá trị nhất trong khu vực và đứng số 1 tại Lào.
Trong thời gian tới, Unitel tiếp tục coi trọng triển khai kết hợp viễn thông, công
nghệ thông tin với việc tập trung vào giải pháp hỗ trợ hành chính công như thủ tục hải
quan một cửa hay giải pháp an ninh cho các tổ chức tài chính, ngân hàng. Ngoài ra,
Unitel sẽ tiến sang lĩnh vực tài chính vi mô cùng sản phẩm ví điện tử với kinh nghiệm
triển khai thành công của Viettel tại 5 thị trường trước đó.
Tính đến giữa tháng 9/2016, tại 9 thị trường nước ngoài (Lào, Campuchia,
Timor-Leste, Cameroon, Haiti, Mozambique, Burundi, Peru, Tanzania), tổng số khách
hàng của Viettel đã đạt 26 triệu, nâng số lượng khách hàng của Viettel trên toàn cầu
(bao gồm Việt Nam) lên 90 triệu người. Nhờ đó, Viettel nằm trong số 30 tập đoàn
viễn thông có số lượng khách hàng cao nhất, theo thống kê của GSMA Intelligence.
Về kết quả kinh doanh, kết thúc quý II/2016, doanh thu 6 tháng đầu năm từ các
thị trường nước ngoài của Viettel đạt 493,8 triệu USD, tăng trưởng 13% so với cùng
kỳ năm ngoái. Đặc biệt, nửa đầu năm 2016 cũng đánh dấu sự trở lại của thị trường
châu Phi và dấu hiệu khởi sắc tại châu Mỹ. Thị trường châu Phi đang nhìn thấy những
chuyển biến mạnh mẽ cả về doanh thu và thuê bao với 100% các thị trường tăng
trưởng dương, thuê bao tăng 21%.
TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO
[1] Nguyễn Văn Du, Nguyễn Thị Thúy (2022), “Nhân kỷ niệm 67 năm Ngày thành
lập Đảng Nhân dân Cách mạng Lào (22/03/1955 – 22/03/ 2022): Quan hệ đặc biệt
Việt Nam – Lào”, chuyên mục Quốc tế, Tạp chí Nghiên cứu, Hướng dẫn công tác tổ
chức xây dựng Đảng của Ban tổ chức trung ương, truy cập tại:
http://www.xaydungdang.org.vn/Home/quoc-te/2022/16606/Quan-he-dac-biet-Viet-
Nam-Lao.aspx.
[2] Trung tâm Xúc tiến Thương mại và Đầu tư (ITPC) (2021), “Thị trường các nước
ASEAN: Thị trường Lào”.
[3] Trịnh Thị Tâm (2021), “Bản tin kinh tế số tháng 1/2021: Tình hình kinh tế Lào”,
Trang Ngoại giao Kinh tế trực tuyến, Bộ Ngoại Giao Việt Nam, truy cập tại:
https://ngkt.mofa.gov.vn/forums/lao/ban-tin-kinh-te-so-thang-01-2021-%E2%80%8B/
[4] Trần Xuân Sơn, Lê Duy Toàn (2021), “Triển vọng phát triển kinh tế Lào trong
năm 2021”, Tin tức thế giới, Báo nhân dân, truy cập tại: https://nhandan.vn/tin-tuc-
the-gioi/trien-vong-phat-trien-kinh-te-lao-trong-nam-2021-644072/