Chapter 3 Part 2
Chapter 3 Part 2
Chapter 3 Part 2
NETWORK MODELS
PART 2
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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After completing this chapter, students will be able to:
1. Understand how to plan, monitor, and control projects with
the use of PERT and CPM
2. Determine earliest start, earliest finish, latest start, latest
finish, and slack times for each activity, along with the total
project completion time.
3. Understand the important role of software in project
management.
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CHAPTER OUTLINE
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Project Management
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Project
• Project :“A project is a series of activities
directed to accomplishment of a desired
objective.”
• Projects: Unique, one-time operations
designed to accomplish specific set of
objectives in a limited time frame.
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The Language of Project Networks
Network analysis is the general name given to certain
specific techniques which can be used for the
planning, management and control of projects
• Network
– diagram of nodes and arcs
– used to illustrate technological relationships
• Path
– series of connected activities between two
events
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• Activity
– task or set of tasks
– use resources
• Event
– state resulting from completion of one or more
activities
– consume no resources or time
– predecessor activities must be completed
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• Critical path
– The longest path; determines expected project
duration
• Critical activities
– Activities on the critical path
• Slack
– Allowable slippage for path; the difference the
length of path and the length of critical path
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Network Diagrams
• Network diagrams are the preferred technique
for showing activity sequencing.
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Introduction
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Introduction
• Although PERT and CPM have the same general purpose and
utilize much of the same terminology, the techniques were
developed independently. PERT was developed in the late
1950’s specifically for the POLARIS missile project. Many
activities associated with this project had never been attempted
previously, so PERT was developed to handle uncertain
activity times. CPM was developed primarily for industrial
projects for which activity times generally were known.
CPM offered the option of reducing activity times by adding
more workers and/or resources, usually at an increased cost.
Thus ,a distinguishing feature of CPM was that it identified
trade-offs between time and cost for various project activities.
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Introduction
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Six Steps of PERT/CPM
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Example 1
PROJECT SCHEDULING WITH KNOWN ACTIVITY TIMES
• The owner of the Western Hills Shopping Center is
planning to modernize and expand the current 32-
business shopping center complex. The project is
expected to provide room for 8 to 10 new businesses.
Financing has been arranged through a private
investor. All that remains is for the owner the
shopping center to plan, schedule, and complete the
expansion project. Let us show how PERT/CPM can
help.
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Example 1
• The first step in the PERT/CPM scheduling process is to
develop a list of the activities that make up the project. Table
7.1 also shows the list of the activities for the Western Hills
Shopping Center expansion project. Nine activities are
described and denoted A through I for later reference. Table
7.1 also shows the immediate predecessors and the activity
time (in weeks) for each activity. For a given activity, the
immediate predecessor column identifies the activities that
must be completed immediately prior to start of that
activity. Activities A and B do not have immediate
predecessors and can be started as soon as the project begins;
thus, a dash is written in the immediate predecessor column for
these activities.
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Example 1
• The other entries in the immediate predecessor column
show that activities. The entries in the immediate
predecessor column show the activities C,D, and E
cannot be started until activity A has been completed;
activity F cannot be started until activity E has been
completed; activity G cannot be started until both
activities D and F have been completed; activity H
cannot be started until both activities B and C have
been completed and finally, activity I cannot be started
until both activities G and H have been completed .The
project is finished when activity I is completed.
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Example 1
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Example 1
• The last column in Table 7.1 shows the number of
weeks required to complete each activity. For
example, activity A takes 5 weeks, activity B takes 6
weeks, and so on. The sum of activity time is 51. As a
result, you may think the total time required to
complete the project is 51 weeks. However, as we
show, two or more activities often may be scheduled
concurrently, thus shortening the completion time for
the project. Ultimately,PERT/CPM will provide a
detailed activity schedule for completing the project
in the shortest time possible.
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Example 1
• Using the immediate predecessor information in Table
7.1, we can construct a graphical representation of the
project, or the project network. Figure 7.1 depicts the
project network for Western Hill Shopping Center. The
activities correspond to the nodes of the network (drawn
as rectangles) and the arcs (the lines with arrows) show
the precedence relationships among the activities. In
addition, nodes have been added to the network to denote
the start and the finish of the project. A project network
will help a manger visualize the activity relationships and
provide a basis for carrying out the PERT/CPM
computations.
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Example 1
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Example 1
• The Concept of a Critical Path
• To facilitate PERT/CPM computations, we modified
the project network as shown in Figure 7.2. Note that
the upper left-hand corner of each node contains the
corresponding activity letter. The activity time
appears immediately below the letter. To determine
the project completion time, we have to analyze the
network and identify what is called critical path for
the network. However, before doing so, we need to
define the concept of a path through the network.
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Example 1
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Example 1
• A path is a sequence of connected nodes that leads from
Start node to the Finish node. For instant, one path for the
network in Figure 7.2 is defined by the sequence of nodes A-
E-F-GI. By inspection, we see that other paths are possible,
such as A-D-G-I, A-C-H-I, and B-H-I. All paths in the
network must be traversed in order to complete the project, so
we will look for the path that requires the most time.
Because all other paths are shorter in duration, this longest
path determines the total time required to complete the
project. If activities on the longest path are delayed, the entire
project will be delayed. Thus, the longest path is the critical
path. Activities on the critical path are referred to as the
critical activities for the project.
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Example 1
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Example 1
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Example 1
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Example 1
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Example 1
32
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• The following rule can be used to determine the latest finish time for each
activity in the network.
• The latest finish time for an activity is the smallest of the latest start times
for all activities that immediately follow the activity.
• Logically, this rule states that the latest time an activity can be finished
equals the earliest (smallest) value for the latest start time of following
activities. Figure 7.4 shows the complete project network with the LS and
LF backward pass results. We can use the latest finish time rule to verify
the LS and LF values shown for activity H. The latest finish time for
activity H must be the latest start time for activity I. Thus, we set LF =24
for activity H. Using equation (7.1), we find that LS = LF – t =24 -12 = 12
as the latest start time for activity H. These values are shown in the node
for activity H in Figure 7.4.
•
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Example 1
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Example 1
• Activity A requires a more involved application of the latest start time rule. First, note that three
activities ( C, D and E) immediately follow activity A. Figure 7.4 shows that the latest start times
for activities C, D and E are LS = 8, LS = 7, and LS = 5, respectively. The latest finish time rule
for activity A states that the LF for activity A is the smallest of the latest start times for activities
C, D and E. With the smallest value being 5 for the activity E, we set the latest finish time for
activity A to LF = 5.
• After we have completed the forward and backward passes, we can determine the amount of slack
associated with associated with each activity. Slack is the length of time an activity can be
delayed without increasing the project completion time. The amount of slack for an activity is
computed as follows:
• Slack = LS – ES = LF – EF
• For example, the slack associated with activity C is LS – ES = 8 – 5 = 3 weeks. Hence, activity C
can be delayed up to 3 weeks, and the entire project can still be completed in 26 weeks. In this
sense, activity C is not critical to the completion of the entire project in 26 weeks. Next, we
consider activity E. Using the information in Figure 7.4 we find that the slack is LS – ES = 5 – 5 =
0. Thus, activity E has zero, or no, slack. Thus, this activity cannot be delayed without increasing
the completion time for the entire project. In other words, completing activity E exactly as
scheduled is critical in terms of keeping the project on schedule. Thus, activity E is a critical
activity. In general, the critical activities are the activities with zero slack.
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Example 1
• That start and finish times shown in Figure 7.4 can be used to
develop a detailed start time and finish time schedule for all
activities. Putting this information in tabular form provides the
activity schedule shown in Table 7.2. Note that the slack
column shows that activities A, E, F, G, and I have zero slack.
Hence, these activities are the critical activities for the project.
The path formed by nodes A-E-F-G-I is the critical path in the
Western Hills Shopping Center Project Network. The detailed
schedule shown in Table 7.2 indicates the slack or delay that
can be tolerated for the noncritical activities before these
activities will increase project completion time.
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Example 1
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PROJECT SCHEDULING WITH
UNCERTAIN ACTIVITY TIMES
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Example 2
• Uncertain Activity Times
• Once we have developed the project network, we will need information on
the time required to complete each activity. This information is used in the
calculation of the total time required to complete the project and in the
scheduling of specific activities. For repeat projects, such as construction
and maintenance project, managers may have the experience and historical
data necessary to provide accurate activity time estimates. However, for
new or unique project, estimating the time for each activity may be quite
difficult. In fact, in many cases, activity times are uncertain and are best
described by a range of possible values rather than by one specific time
estimate. In these instances, the uncertain activity times are treated as
random variables with associated probability distributions. As a result,
probability statements will be provided about the ability to meet a specific
project completion date.
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Example 2
• To incorporate uncertain activity times into the analysis, we need to obtain three
time estimates for each activity:
• Optimistic time a = the minimum activity time if everything progresses ideally
• Most probable time m = the most probable activity time under normal conditions
• Pessimistic time b = the maximum activity time if significant delays are
encountered
• To illustrate the PERT/CPM procedure with uncertain activity times. Let us
consider the optimistic, most probable, and pessimistic time estimates for the Porta-
Vac activities as presented in Table 7.3 Using activity A as an example, we see that
the most probable time is 5 weeks with a range from 4 weeks (optimistic) to 12
weeks (pessimistic). If the activity could be repeated a large number of times, what
is the average time for the activity? This average or expected time (t) is as follows:
• t=(a+4m+b)/ 6
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PERT
PERT(Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
is the same as CPM but the difference is that
the project manager is sometimes not certain
about the duration of each activity, so he gives
three time estimates for each activity:
– a: Optimistic time
– b: Pessimistic time
– m: Most probable time
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Example 2
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Example 2
Required:
1. Construct the project network.
2. Calculate the finish time of the project.
3. What is critical path?
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Example 2
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Example 2
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Example 2
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Example 2
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Example 2
Path Duration
AEHIJ 17
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Appendix A
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Appendix A
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