Problemas sugeridos

Paula S.Rivera
Examen #2

5.3  Vegetarianism You randomly sample 10 people in your school, and none of them is a vegetarian.
Does this mean that the probability of being a vegetarian for students at your school equals 0? Explain.

No. A corto plazo, la proporción de un resultado dado puede cambiar mucho. A medida que se

muestrean más personas, la proporción debe acercarse a la probabilidad real.

5.6  Random digits Consider a random number generator designed for equally likely outcomes. Which of the
following is not correct, and why?

a) For each random digit generated, each integer between 0 and 9 has probability 0.10 of being
selected.

b) If you generate 10 random digits, each integer between 0 and 9 must occur exactly once.

c) If you generated a very large number of random digits, then each integer between 0 and 9
would occur close to 10% of the time.

d) The cumulative proportion of times that a 0 is generated tends to get closer to 0.10 as the
number of ran- dom digits generated gets larger and larger.

La frase incorrecta seria la B ya que en un generador de numeros al azar cada selección es indepenediente a las
selecciones previas

5.15  Pop quiz A teacher gives a four-question unannounced true-false pop quiz, with two possible answers to each
question.

a) Use a tree diagram to show the possible response patterns, in terms of whether any given
response is correct or incorrect. How many outcomes are in the sample space?
 b) An unprepared student guesses all the answers randomly. Find the probabilities of the
possible outcomes on the tree diagram.

c) Refer to part b. Using the tree diagram, evaluate the probability of passing the quiz, which
the teacher defines as answering at least three questions correctly.

5.18 Two girls A couple plans to have two children. Each child is equally likely to be a girl or boy, with gender
independent of that of the other child.

a) Construct a sample space for the genders of the two children.

b) Find the probability that both children are girls.

c) Answer part b if in reality, for a given child, the chance of a girl is 0.49.
5.23  Seat belt use and auto accidents Based on records of automobile accidents in a recent year, the
Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles in Florida reported the counts who survived (S) and
died (D), according to whether they wore a seat belt (Y = yes, N = no). The data are presented in the
contingency table shown.

a. What is the sample space of possible outcomes for a randomly selected individual involved in an auto accident? Use a tree
diagram to illustrate the possible outcomes. (Hint: One possible outcome is YS.)

b. Using these data, estimate (i) P(D), (ii) P(N).

c. Estimate the probability that an individual did not wear a seat belt and died.

d. Based on part a, what would the answer to part c have been if the events N and D were independent? So, are N and D
independent, and if not, what does that mean in the context of these data?
5.29  Spam Because of the increasing nuisance of spam e-mail messages, many start-up companies have emerged to
develop e-mail filters. One such filter was recently adver- tised as being 95% accurate. The way the advertisement is
worded, 95% accurate could mean that (a) 95% of spam
is blocked, (b) 95% of valid e-mail is allowed through, (c) 95% of the e-mail allowed through is valid, or (d) 95% of
the blocked e-mail is spam. Let S denote {message is spam}, and let B denote {filter blocks message}. Using these
events and their complements, identify each of these four possibilities as a conditional probability.

5.35  Identifying spam An article4 in www.networkworld .com about evaluating e-mail filters that are designed to
detect spam described a test of MailFrontier’s Anti-Spam Gateway (ASG). In the test, there were 7840 spam mes-
sages, of which ASG caught 7005. Of the 7053 messages that ASG identified as spam, they were correct in all but
48 cases.

a) Set up a contingency table that cross classifies the actual spam status (with the rows “spam”
and “not spam”) by the ASG filter prediction (with the columns “predict message is spam”
and “predict message is not spam”). Using the information given, enter counts in three of the
four cells.

b) For this test, given that a message is truly spam, esti- mate the probability that ASG
correctly detects it.

c) Given that ASG identifies a message as spam, estimate the probability that the message truly
was spam.
5.42 Drawing cards A standard card deck has 52 cards con- sisting of 26 black and 26 red cards. Three cards are
dealt from a shuffled deck, without replacement.

a. True or false: The probability of being dealt three black cards is (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/8. If true, explain why. If
false, show how to get the correct probability.

b. Let A = first card red and B = second card red. Are A and B independent? Explain why or why not.

c. Answer parts a and b if each card is replaced in the deck after being dealt.

5.61 DNA evidence compelling? DNA evidence can be extracted from biological traces such as blood, hair, and
saliva. “DNA fingerprinting” is increasingly used in the courtroom as well as in paternity testing. Given that a per-
son is innocent, suppose that the probability of their DNA matching that found at the crime scene is only 0.000001,
one in a million. Further, given that a person is guilty, suppose that the probability of their DNA matching that found
at the crime scene is 0.99. Jane Doe’s DNA matches that found at the crime scene.
CAPITULO 6

6.5 Selling houses Let X represent the number of homes a real estate agent sells during a given month. Based on
previous sales records, she estimates that P(0) = 0.68, P(1) = 0.19, P(2) = 0.09, P(3) = 0.03, P(4) = 0.01, with
negligible probability for higher values of x.

1. Explain why it does not make sense to compute

the mean of this probability distribution as

(0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4)/5 = 2.0.
6.9 Ideal number of children Let X denote the response of a randomly selected person to the question, “What is the
ideal number of children for a family to have?” The prob- ability distribution of X in the United States is approxi-
mately as shown in the table, according to the gender of the person asked the question.
6.12  Uniform distribution A random number generator is used to generate a real number between 0 and 1, equally
likely to fall anywhere in this interval of values. (For instance, 0.3794259832 cis a possible outcome.)

a) Sketch a curve of the probability distribution of this random variable, which is the
continuous version of the uniform distribution (see Exercise 6.1).

b) What is the mean of this probability distribution?

c) Find the probability that this random variable falls between 0.25 and 0.75.

6.17 Central probabilities For a normal distribution, use Table A to verify that the probability (rounded to two
decimal places) within

a) 1.64 standard deviations of the mean equals 0.90.

b) 2.58 standard deviations of the mean equals 0.99.

c) Find the probability that falls within 0.67 standard deviations of the mean.

d) Sketch these three cases on a single graph.

6.18  z-score for given probability in tails For a normal distribution,

a) Find the z-score for which a total probability of 0.02 falls more than z standard deviations (in
either direction) from the mean, that is, below μ - zσ or above μ + zσ.

b) For this z, explain why the probability more than z standard deviations above the mean
equals 0.01.

c) Explain why μ + 2.33σ is the 99th percentile.

6.23  Blood pressure A World Health Organization study (the MONICA project) of health in various countries
reported that in Canada, systolic blood pressure readings have a mean of 121 and a standard deviation of 16. A
reading above 140 is considered to be high blood pressure.

a) What is the z-score for a blood pressure reading of 140?

b) If systolic blood pressure in Canada has a normal distribution, what proportion of Canadians suffers
from high blood pressure?

c) What proportion of Canadians has systolic blood ressures in the range from 100 to 140?

d) Find the 90th percentile of blood pressure readings.

6.27 MDI The Mental Development Index (MDI) of the Bayley Scales of Infant Development is a standard-
ized measure used in observing infants over time. It is approximately normal with a mean of 100 and a standard
deviation of 16.

a) What proportion of children has an MDI of (i) at least 120? (ii) at least 80?

b) Find the MDI score that is the 99th percentile.

c) Find the MDI score such that only 1% of the population has MDI below it.

6.28 Quartiles and outliers Refer to the previous exercise.

a) Find the z-score corresponding to the lower quartile (Q1) of a normal distribution.

b) Find and interpret the lower quartile and upper quartile of the MDI.

c) Find the interquartile range (IQR) of MDI scores.

d) Section 2.5 defined an observation to be a potential outlier if it is more than 1.5 * IQR below Q1 or
above Q3. Find the intervals of MDI scores that would be considered potential outliers.
6.39  NBA shooting In the National Basketball Association, the top free throw shooters usually have probability of
about 0.90 of making any given free throw.

a) During a game, one such player (Dolph Schayes) shot 10 free throws. Let X = number of free
throws made. What must you assume in order or X to have a binomial distribution? (Studies
have shown that such assumptions are well satisfied for this sport.)

b) Specify the values of n and p for the binomial distribu- tion of X in part a.

c) Find the probability that he made (i) all 10 free throws and (ii) 9 free throws.

6.40  Season performance Refer to the previous exercise. Over the course of a season, this player shoots 400 free
throws.

a) Findthemeanandstandarddeviationoftheprobability distribution of the number of free

throws he makes.

b) By the normal distribution approximation, within what range would you expect the number
made to almost certainly fall? Why?
 c) Within what range would you expect the proportion made to fall?

6.43 Jury duty The juror pool for the upcoming murder trial of a celebrity actor contains the names of 100,000
individuals in the population who may be called for jury duty. The propor- tion of the available jurors on the
population list who are Hispanic is 0.40. A jury of size 12 is selected at random from the population list of available
jurors. Let X = the number of Hispanics selected to be jurors for this jury.

a) Is it reasonable to assume that X has a binomial dis- tribution? If so, identify the values of n and p. If
not, explain why not.

b) Find the probability that no Hispanic is selected.

c) If no Hispanic is selected out of a sample of size 12, does this cast doubt on whether the sampling was
truly random? Explain.
CAPITULO 7

7.4 iPhone apps For the population of individuals who own an iPhone, suppose p = 0.25 is the proportion that has a
given app. For a particular iPhone owner, let x = 1 if they have the app and x = 0 otherwise. For a random sample of
50 people who have an iPhone:

a. State the population distribution (that is, the probabil- ity distribution of X for each observation).

b. Find the mean of the sampling distribution of the sam- ple proportion who have the app among the 50 people.

c. Find the standard deviation of the sampling distribu- tion of the sample proportion who have the app among the
50 people

d. Explain what the standard deviation in part c describes.

7.5 Other scenario for exit poll Refer to Examples 1 and 2 about the exit poll, for which the sample size was 3889.
In that election, 40.9% voted for Whitman.

a. Define a binary random variable X taking values 0 and 1 that represents the vote for a particular voter (1 = vote
for Whitman and 0 = another candidate). State its probability distribution, which is the same as the population
distribution for X.
b. Find the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the proportion of the 3889 people in the
sample who voted for Whitman.

7.6  Exit poll and n Refer to the previous exercise.

a) In part b, if the sampling distribution of the sample proportion had mean 0.409 and the
standard devia- tion 0.008, give an interval of values within which the sample proportion will
almost certainly fall. (Hint: You can use the approximate normality of the sampling
distribution.)

b) The sample proportion for Whitman from the exit poll was pn = 0.424. Using part a, was this
one of the plau- sible values expected in an exit poll? Why?

7.21  Survey accuracy A study investigating the relationship between age and annual medical expenses randomly
samples 100 individuals in Davis, California. It is hoped that the sample will have a similar mean age as the entire
population.

a) If the standard deviation of the ages of all individuals in Davis is σ = 15, find the probability
that the mean age of the individuals sampled is within two years of the mean age for all
individuals in Davis. (Hint: Find the sampling distribution of the sample mean age and use
 the central limit theorem. You don’t have to know the population mean to answer this, but if
it makes it easier, use a value such as μ = 30.)

b) Would the probability be larger, or smaller, if σ = 10? Why?

7.23 Household size According to the 2010 U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Survey (www.census
.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2010.html), the average number of people in family households which
contain both family and non-family members is 4.43 with a standard deviation of 2.02. This is based on census
infor- mation for the population. Suppose the Census Bureau instead had estimated this mean using a random
sample of 225 homes. Suppose the sample had a sample mean of 4.2 and standard deviation of 1.9.

a) Identify the random variable X. Indicate whether it is quantitative or categorical.

b) Describe the center and variability of the population distribution. What would you predict as the
shape of the population distribution? Explain.

c) Describe the center and variability of the data distribu- tion. What would you predict as the shape of
the data distribution? Explain.

d) Describe the center and variability of the sampling distribution of the sample mean for 225 homes.
What would you predict as the shape of the sampling distri- bution? Explain.
CAPITULO 8

8.7 Believe in heaven? When a GSS asked 1326 subjects, “Do you believe in heaven?” (coded HEAVEN), the
proportion who answered yes was 0.85. From results in the next section, the estimated standard deviation of this
point estimate is 0.01.

a) Find and interpret the margin of error for a 95% confidence interval for the population proportion
of Americans who believe in heaven.

b) Construct the 95% confidence interval. Interpret it in context.

8.16  Oppose death penalty Refer to the previous exercise. Show how you can get a 95% confidence interval for
the proportion of American adults who were opposed to the death penalty from the confidence interval stated in the
previous exercise for the proportion in favor. (Hint: The proportion opposed is 1 minus the proportion in favor.)
8.23 Exit poll predictions A national television network takes

an exit poll of 1400 voters after each has cast a vote in a state gubernatorial election. Of them, 660 say they voted for
the Democratic candidate and 740 say they voted for the Republican candidate.

a) Treating the sample as a random sample from the population of all voters, would you predict the
winner? Base your decision on a 95% confidence interval.

b) Base your decision on a 99% confidence interval. Explain why you need stronger evidence to make a
prediction when you want greater confidence

8.24 Exit poll with smaller sample In the previous exercise, suppose the same proportions resulted from n = 140
(instead of 1400), with counts 66 and 74.

a) Now does a 95% confidence interval allow you to predict the winner? Explain.

b) Explain why the same proportions but with smaller samples provide less information. (Hint: What
effect does n have on the standard error?)
8.36  Wage discrimination? According to a union agreement, the mean income for all senior-level assembly-line
workers in a large company equals $500 per week. A representative of a women’s group decides to analyze whether
the mean income for female employees matches this norm. For a random sam- ple of nine female employees, using
software she obtains a 95% confidence interval of (371, 509). Explain what is wrong with each of the following
interpretations of this interval.

a) We infer that 95% of the women in the population have income between $371 and $509 per
week.

b) If random samples of nine women were repeatedly selected, then 95% of the time the sample
mean income would be between $371 and $509.

c) We can be 95% confident that x􏰌 is between $371 and $509.

d) If we repeatedly sampled the entire population, then 95% of the time the population mean
would be between $371 and $509.
8.41 Effect of n Find the margin of error for a 95% confidence interval for estimating the population mean when the
sample standard deviation equals 100, with a sample size of (i) 400 and (ii) 1600. What is the effect of the sample
size?

8.42 Effect of confidence level Find the margin of error for estimating the population mean when the sample
standard deviation equals 100 for a sample size of 400, using confi- dence level (i) 95% and (ii) 99%. What is the
effect of the choice of confidence level?